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Forex Forum Archive for 07/27/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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UK Alex 22:05 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
If access to cheap debt is cut off permanently, it will mean an end to all the activity that has been funded by the cheap debt. Share buy-backs that have propped up company share prices - over. Big bets on the financial markets by highly-leveraged hedge funds - over. Most worrying of all, the wave of takeovers by private equity firms - over.

Sydney ACC 21:52 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 21:09 GMT July 27, 2007
I was inferring safe haven from pricing risk. Naturally from a political perspective Australia remains one of the safest places for your money. Investors will return. It's just that being heavily reliant on foreign investment Australia is going to suffer as investor's defer making a decision. Investments such as privatre equity deals are going to dry up while prices in equity markets tumble and risk margins increase. Take the Alliance Boots deal as an example where the Banks increased the margin, discounted the purchase price and incorpoprated part of their underwriting fees to make the paper more attractive. Despite all of this the paper was shunned despite the company being a British institution.

Bon Air VA Dennis 21:46 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 21:09

imo mkt has been ignoring non-US fundamentals for a long time and taken the attitude "no problems here, just there". Witness a slow deterioration in non-GER EU data of late for example and how weaker UK retail sales have been pooh-poohed as abberational. Again just how I see it.

Philadelphia Caba 21:09 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 20:59 GMT
' safe heaven '.... very, very, very fast switch ... what has changed fundamentaly?

dc CB 21:08 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Wall Street this week

good weekend all.

dc CB 21:04 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
on the lighter side.
NASA seems to have discovered heavy alcohol use by astronauts prior to space flights.

I guess if you think the thing might blow up on takeoff, might as well be comfortably numb.

Sydney ACC 20:59 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
he sellers are lined up for Monday morning to sell Aussie. In the last hour or so in New York it has come off 20 points and currently sits at 0.8510, some 270 points below Monday's opening and a whopping 200 points on the day.
International capital flows are drying up as market's seek a safe haven. Aussie benefitted over much of this year by potenetial and real acquisitions Qantas and Rinker and the carry-trade. Rinker alone over three months provided over AUD 10 billion in forex demand from institutions, real cash flow sufficient to fund the current account deficit for that period of time.
The carry-trade may dry up but the deficit and Uridashi redemptions will not. There are AUD 1.4 billion of redemptions in August, AUD 1 billion on the 23rd.
So in the imortal words of Sergeant Stan Jablonski...Hey, lets be careful out there.

Philadelphia Caba 20:49 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 20:41 GMT
carry is over? why? nothing has changed fundamentally...not so long ago you've been calling for another extremes....
nice w/e to all!

GENEVA DS 20:41 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
targets for this move... EURUSD 11600... EURJPY 11600 and EURCHF 14600... sorry.... GBPJPY 18500.... it will go down like crazy... carry is over... only a break above 13850 would change this outlook... USDCAD 12500... to start.... good weekend...

Philadelphia Caba 20:36 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
small aussie long at 8520

Gen dk 19:53 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 19:46 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
looking like an ugly close on Wall Street.

dc CB 18:28 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Link didn't take ?

http://www.thestreet.com/pf/newsanalysis/realestate/10370579.html

dc CB 18:26 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   



Housing Data Crush the Pollyannas

Mtl JP 18:02 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
surabaya 17:30 / GVI john is a humble guy so he understated. It is much muCH MUCH MORRRRRE:
a FOREX trading community where you ll find Economic release calendar and potential market moving implications, historical exchange rate for reference (currencies do not float; only sink at different rates) or forex technical/fundamental/esoteric based trade ideas

what is your "fetish" ?

bbsapul 17:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
hello lahore:

whats your target for cable long?

Bodrum OEE 17:43 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
London

Alex thank you Regards

GVI john 17:42 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
surabaya- yes and welcime!

surabaya 17:30 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
guys is this chat room?

Mtl JP 17:10 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 16:43 / fiat money creation (mascarading as "wealth creation") turneth into fiat money destruction (aka FrankenMarket). boo!
LOL

Lahore FM 17:09 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
2nd long audusd 0.8535,rigid stops at 0.8500.

USA BAY 17:07 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
London Nyam,

Do you see gbp/jpy going down further. Tia

UK Alex 17:06 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 17:05 GMT July 27, 2007
Have a nice weekend yourself!

Bodrum OEE 17:05 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
London

Good weekend NYAM and everyone around Thank you

UK Alex 17:03 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Executives find favours bring better ratings

Lahore FM 16:55 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Thanx NYAM,sure.thanx mmm.

Lahore FM 16:55 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
manchester sc 15:40 GMT July 27, 2007
closing portion,half let us say would be a bright idea.

London NYAM 16:50 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
What a yoyo day!
Time to go home still:
long USDJPY from 118.68 p/t 119.40-60 stop below 118.50
long EURGBP from .6700 p/t above .6800 no stop yet
and an unanounced
long in GBPJPY at 240.70 p/t near 242 stop below 240.00
FM rest up I want to see you do it again next week ;)
OEE ciao

Cali mmm 16:46 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
FM, Oilman, thank you for all your help this week. Has been a good one. Good weekend to all here!

Syd 16:43 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Sustained share fall feared on US upsets

STOCK watchers fear the Australian market could be on the brink of sustained correction after concerns about the health of the US economy sent shares into one of their biggest one-day dives since the September 11 terror attacks.

The wipeout cost investors about $41 billion and the effects will be felt immediately, as Australia has the highest percentage of private share ownership in the world.

The slump means 5 per cent or $77 billion has been written off the market's value since it reached a record high just one week ago, with the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index back to its levels of five months ago.

The poor performance of the local market started when shares on Wall Street fell more than 2per cent, with investors unnerved by developments in the sub-prime mortgage scandals and signs the poor housing market could be getting worse.

The $1.4 trillion Australian market started the day 160 points in the red, as traders and investors dumped stocks across the board. The S&P/ASX 200 index finished down 175.6 points to 6082.9, while the All Ordinaries shed 174.1 points to 6127.3.

The week-long decline has prompted analysts to question whether this is the start of a stock market correction, which some believe is overdue after four years of double-digit growth.

Peter Costello said yesterday the Australian economy should be shielded from most of the trouble unfolding in the US because of rising mortgage faults.

The Treasurer has met with the chief executives of the four major banks over the past year to ensure lending standards were not relaxed.
"I get the feeling this is part of something bigger. It doesn't mean that we'll be down again on Monday necessarily but I think we're seeing a liquidity squeeze."
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22147231-601,00.html

Lahore FM 16:33 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
2nd long gbpusd entred at 2.0270 with 40 bid rigid stop.

Lahore FM 16:32 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:08 GMT July 27, 2007
Lahore FM 10:59 GMT July 27, 2007
short usdcad 1.0596,stops at 1.0640.

===
closed half at 55 for 41 pips.stops to entry.
---
stopped at entry for 36 pips cumultaive.

Lahore FM 16:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy scalp stopped for 23 pips.

Bodrum OEE 16:22 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 16:19 GMT July 27, 2007

Thank you very much. Kind of you

London NYAM 16:22 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
whoa bounceing around like a superball!

Syd 16:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE great one

Bodrum OEE 16:17 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
I don't want the truth. I want something I can tell Parliament!

James Hacker

Yes Minister

BBC Series

(world's best ever / OEE)

Hong Kong Qindex 16:16 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:10 GMT - USD/JPY : 115.24 is next once 116.92 fails to hold.

HK Kevin 16:10 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Back from taking a bath. OH! got punish for not discplined enough. USD/JPY now at 118.50. If the pair closed at this level, it may also be next Mon's high.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:05 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : Heading Towards 1.6386

Bodrum OEE 16:03 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
“Silence is acceptance,”

Dr. Sally Murphy, George Mason University professor, at a recent workshop on bullying.

Syd 16:03 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN 13,355.70 11:59am ET 122.87 (0.87%)

NYC jr 16:02 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
I guess if you're smarter than the market you're all set then!

manchester sc 16:01 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
qindex, thanks for this. appreciate it as always

Bodrum OEE 15:52 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
(Stock) market bubbles don't grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.

George Soros

Van jv 15:51 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
All Carry declined today, some sharply -AUD/ JP, NZD/JP down 1.7 , GBP -2.3....interesting how far rewinding extends next week

HK Kevin 15:51 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Not much movement, closed my short USD/JPY from 118.91 at 118.68

Hong Kong Qindex 15:50 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
manchester sc 15:40 GMT -

EUR/CHF : the market is working on the barrier at 1.6454 // 1.6477. The odds are in favor of maintainging a short position when the market is trading below [1.6505]. A projected barrier is located at 1.6432. The two downside targeting points are 1.6386* and 1.6361*.

Mumbai NS 15:49 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
What days the last three so much of wake up calls and so much to do Happy that the weekend has come and just for long term players say cheese if u see a monthly close around .8485 as the confirmation of top and we shuld then target .7745 tgif gl gt

Syd 15:41 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15 going to see how equities perform into the close first heard talk could be a sell off, would then consider low 85s

Como Perrie 15:40 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
carry trade seemingly absent for today...so am off

manchester sc 15:40 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
qidex, if you are around have you any ranges for eur/chf? im short at 16560 and looking to cash in some profit

Como Perrie 15:37 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
do not forget august 2 is BOE on rates. also some japanese datas early next week..ind. prod....fwiw

hk ab 15:36 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
syd, what do you think about some limbo long on aud or aud/jpy here?

HK Kevin 15:34 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
My previous post should read "if close near 118.40-50"

Syd 15:34 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab , early today Sydney ACC posted .... Remember when it peaked in 1989 it fell 13 big figures in five weeks.
problem is you never know when the carry trade is going to start the big one.

HK Kevin 15:32 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY is losing updise momentum. I entered a tiny short 118.92. Will keep it over the weekend if close near 119.40-50 with stop at entry. Otherwise, covered it before NY close.

Como Perrie 15:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
for next week the most interesting thing to me is oil as we are just coupla points away of the psychological barrier at 80

Syd 15:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Manchester st 15:29 Very much so , but its Friday <:0)

Manchester st 15:29 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 15:27 GMT July 27, 2007
Past your bedtime Syd...

Syd 15:27 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:25 GMT July may get taken down before the close election Japan , rumour Howard calling an election this weekend (rubbish)

hk ab 15:25 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
syd, aud might need aud/jpy found the bottom first before it's bottomed.

madrid mm 15:23 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Education is the key to gaining confidence in trading, and confidence is what it takes to improve your trading results.
8+-)

London NYAM 15:20 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:17 GMT July 27, 2007//My apologies FM, my mind read something that wasnt there.

hk ab 15:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
japan banker has serious troubles with c9 now.

Shenzhen Laowen 15:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
ab, firm gold might be th eroot cause why CHF did not turn soft with her cousins.

Ldn 15:18 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
WSJ: Hedge-Fund Sowood Capital Hit With Big Bond Losses
Sowood Capital Management, a hedge-fund firm founded by a manager who used to help run Harvard Management Co., has suffered significant bond losses lately, and is down about 10% so far this year, making it among the first high-profile firms hurt by the recent market fallout.

The firm, which does both stock and bond trading, has sold various positions to raise cash to deal with ongoing difficulties in the credit markets and raise cash for potential margin calls from its lenders. Sowood has met the margin calls and isn't closing down, according to someone close to the matter. The firm doesn't face any potential redemptions from its investors until the end of 2008. Sowood has sold positions including merger-related shares.

The firm was launched with great fanfare by Jeffrey Larson, who has among the most impressive pedigrees in the hedge-fund world. Larson was among a group of managers who picked investments for Harvard Management Co. Many of these managers, like Larson, left in 2004 after public outcry over their salaries at Harvard.

A person close to the matter says the hedge fund is down about 10% in 2007, with most of those losses coming in the last two months. The problems were abrupt for Sowood, which was up a few percentages points for the year through June. Harvard is an investor in Sowood.

Fallout from the turmoil in subprime mortgages continues to wreak havoc amongst hedge funds. Problems hit funds run by Bear Stearns Cos. (BSC), which earlier in the month told investors that two of its hedge funds were basically wiped out by subprime losses. Australian fund Basis Capital Funds Management Ltd., which had nearly $950 million in assets under management as of May, was also hit badly, prompting it to restrict investor withdrawals and appoint an accounting firm to help it restructure as creditors press for repayment of loans.



Lahore FM 15:17 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:54 GMT July 27, 2007
Lahore FM 14:51 GMT July 27, 2007//
it is just another day at work.the stop is not 60 pip but 60 bid.guess you look at the post again.

Como Perrie 15:15 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
canada goes on Its own but profit target done today at higher levels while 1.0500 approx holds is mixed imvho this too, strange Its not following oil that much anymore.

hk ab 15:14 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
laowen//THe most curious is gold didn't follow the aud herd....

wanted to long aud after the capitulation today.

Como Perrie 15:13 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
yeap nyam ..am unsure of extensions in current contagion nor strange market sentiment..so am not present in the forum during the complex day..do not like too many ideas :)

think on monday the likelyhood of a carry trade defense move is a risk to consider, even the whole is strange at current... also usd might get sold again imvho but soon to say at current and maybe not against the oceanic ones as ozzie is following gold at current path downwards...more or less the whole picture is yet unclear but the carry risk

Syd 15:09 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Carry Trade longs getting out before anther fund goes belly up and liquidates.

London NYAM 15:07 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hi Perrie. I think we test 119.90 today or Monday as long as we stay above that low of 118.63. Regards.

Shenzhen Laowen 15:06 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Looks like a Yen, $ day. Curious CHF is not so weak.

UK Alex 15:04 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Have a feeling that the GDP data was shocking and that is why equities are going to get whacked, especially now the LBO prop has been so kindly kicked away.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:03 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY :
Daily Directional Indicator : "119.45" - "119.60*" - 121.26 - (121.41) - 121.70*

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 119.45. Projected resistant points are located at 119.60 and 121.41. The supporting strength of the daily cycle at 118.25 // 118.43* is going to be challenged.


Daily Cycle (118.81) : ... 117.40 - 117.74* - 118.08 - 118.25 // 118.43* - 118.60 - 118.77 - 118.94 - 119.11* - 119.28 - [119.45] - 119.62 - 119.79* - 119.96 - 120.13 - 120.30 - 120.48* // 120.65 - 120.82 - 121.16* - 121.50 ... 


Upside Targeting Points : 120.48 and 120.68 


Downside Targeting Points : 117.74 and 118.08 Weekly


Weekly Distribution of Super Magnets : (116.31) - (118.86) - 119.20* - 119.37 - "119.45" -  "119.60*" - 120.32 - 120.45* - 121.26 - (121.41) - 121.70* - 122.21 - 122.96* - 123.16 - (123.96) - 124.21* - (126.51)

London NYAM 15:02 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
What looks like the end of a triangle correction mentioned earlier that would be a potential b-wave off the lows of 118.00 to 119.27 as the a wave may find a test of 119.27. The e-wave of theis wave b triangle looks like it landed nicely on the .618 support at 118.63 so looks good so far.

Como Perrie 15:00 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
am just suspecting those carry trades lurking behind the whole day waiting for surprises...so 119.45 $Y will be better, maybe with a very close eye onto the early monday hours

London NYAM 14:57 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Small long USDJPY here at 118.69. Just to show my agreement. ;)

Hong Kong Qindex 14:57 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Once the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 118.00 the next targeting level is 116.92.

HK Kevin 14:56 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY likely to close around 118.40 today

London NYAM 14:56 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
That being said I agree with the direction if not the entry level.

London NYAM 14:54 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:51 GMT July 27, 2007//
Far be it for me to question you on your golden week, but why would you scalp with a 60 pip stop? I usually think of scalping at anything up to 50 pips or so. What is your target as the r/r seems strange?
TIA

Como Perrie 14:53 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
me just wondering eod stops if 119.65 and 2.0390 to be sound or better quit the whole left onto the table hm

Cbj Jake 14:52 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Well - all looks preorgasmic, controlled or constipated.

Lahore FM 14:51 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
sclap long usdjpy 118.83 with 60 bid stop.

Syd 14:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
High-Yield Derivatives Indexes Fall Amid Risk Aversion
Paulson: Risk Is Being Repriced In Markets -CNBC

The current turmoil in the markets is a result of the repricing of risk, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday.

Speaking in a interview with CNBC, Paulson said: "What we are seeing now is risk being repriced, and a different perspective on risk, which I think is healthy."

Paulson said that there are "excesses" in the credit system. "I think we've had a bit of a wake-up call," he added.

Como Perrie 14:38 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Alaron

What a terrible time for Art Bell to have retired. I mean right there in front of our very eyes, as plain as day, an Unidentified Flying Object streaking across the sky amazing everybody who saw it! Hey wait a second! That’s not a UFO! That’s the crude market!

London NYAM 14:34 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Today feels like a rebound day.

UK Alex 14:32 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi may extend move down to 0.7620

HK [email protected] 14:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:26 GMT July 27, 2007

LOL

Richland QC Mailman 14:30 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
FM if you won't mind pal, just curious, what moved you to buy nzd/usd at 7712? thanks for your feedback in advance.

Syd 14:26 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Citigroup Sees $4.7B Subprime Losses At Freddie Fannie

UK Alex 14:26 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
"The President has watched today with concern the continued drop in the stock market. He directed members of his Administration to consult with the chairmen of the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the New York Stock Exchange, the Chicago commodities and future exchanges, and the leaders of the investment community.These consultations confirm our view that the underlying economy remains sound. We are in the longest peacetime expansion in history. Employment in at the highest level ever. Manufacturing output is up. The trade deficit, when adjusted for changes in currencies, is steadily improving. And, as the chairman of the Fedreal Reserve has recently stated, there is no evidence of a resurgence of inflation in the United States. The President is keeping close watch on the markets here and in other countries. We will continue to closely monitor these developments."
-Statement released on October 19, 1987 by the Whitehouse

Richland QC Mailman 14:26 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Just longed aussies 8576 and 8578 stop 8540, temporary target 8630.

HK Kevin 14:25 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 14:19 GMT, we are not watching movie, 18" monitor is enough. Just a joke.
Some of the traders here are looking at 4-5 minitors at the same time to compare the charts. Save the money to buy more screens.

dc CB 14:23 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
10:15 Treasury Sec. Paulson on CNBC says risks in subprime are largely contained, but will take awhile to work its way through the economy.

Hong Kong WT 14:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Kevin and Ahe
USDCAD, USDJPY, CADJPY and EURJPY chart can do. I just bought a 16:10 big computer monitor only HK$1,560.

Meta Trader has 4 hours chart
Then it will be under 1.05
Bear in my mind, now usdcad in the buy mode at this moment.

Lahore FM 14:14 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
longed nzdusd 0.7712,tentative stops at 0.7660.

Syd 14:13 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Paulson: What We're Seeing In Mkts Is Risk Being Repriced
Paulson: GDP Driven By Strong Growth Outside US
Tsy's Paulson: Very Much For A Strong Dollar

Hong Kong Ahe 14:09 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:04 GMT - NZDUSD 0.7631 and 0.7550 where NZDJPY may hit target of 90.12 of 100 DMA. Lets see. GLGT.

HK Kevin 14:04 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:50 GMT, NZD/USD and NZD/JPY both recorded new daily lows.

Lahore FM 14:01 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
long again audusd,0.8581.stopless for now.

Lahore FM 14:00 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:08 GMT July 27, 2007
Lahore FM 11:37 GMT July 27, 2007
long audusd 0.8588,stopless for now.

---
closed half at 0.8630 for 42 pips.stops to 0.8580 for half.
---
stopped at 0.8580 for 34 pips cumulative.

LDN 13:53 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:43 GMT July 27, 2007
LDN 13:35 GMT July 27, 2007
Perhaps.........but many things don't get posted on here and the severe drawdowns are beyond most traders comfort zones.

That is all I will say on the matter as I don't believe signal services are allowed to be advertised on here - subtly or not (without GV permission)

London NYAM 13:52 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Out og GBP scalp at break even 2.0311
cross elling looks like its mounting.

HK Kevin 13:50 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 13:36 GMT, one more thing. I don't think we will see USD/CAD below 1.04 in the near future.

Hong Kong Ahe 13:50 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 13:36 -When you want to trade USDCAD, open charts of USDCAD, USDJPY, CADJPY and EURJPY to monitor your position of USDCAD. The determinative factor of current trend is the unwind of CADJPY. But it is Friday, watch carefully. GLGT

HK Kevin 13:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 13:36 GMT, CAD has its own characteristics. Look at the 4-hr and 8-hr chart, it's moving forward with up and down dancing steps. Always not a bad idea to book proftis in your t/ps and re-enter at a better level for 2nd trade.

London NYAM 13:43 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
LDN 13:35 GMT July 27, 2007// Im sorry to hear that. Im only going by what Ive seen on GV and a generally well held view of the traders skills. Perhaps it was a bad stretch?

Hong Kong WT 13:36 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:12 GMT July 27, 2007
Thank you
Why I did not cut loss? Because I believe some commentary said the upward of uadcad "not more than 1.0545" yesterday. That is why I am hesitate to cut loss.

Just booked 35 pips profit. Will buy again under 1.04. Not comfort with last 30 minutes price movement. I don't confident any 40-50 pips movement.

LDN 13:35 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:37 GMT July 27, 2007
As a former member of the subtly advertised signal service I can vouch for the fact that money is regularly lost with quite severe drawdowns at times hence why I am no longer a member.

Syd 13:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:30 exactly

HK [email protected] 13:30 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:24 GMT July 27, 2007

CONCLUSION!!! Manage your own investments. I have seen and experienced once those experts, just never to try again.

Syd 13:24 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Investment-Grade Investors Worried
"I'd say things are bordering on panic," said Daniel Sheppard at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. "There are people who have never seen this kind of an investment-grade market with such wide spreads ever. There is a significant level of concern." People are looking for "soothing words from someone," he said.

UK Alex 13:20 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Niesr said interest rate rises took two years to affect inflation but the Bank thought the effect was quicker. This meant an “un-necessary disappointment over the effects so far may lead to rates rising more than needed”. Martin Weale, Niesr director, said: “It’s like a shower – you turn the knob and nothing happens, then you turn the knob again and suddenly you are either frozen or cooked.”

London NYAM 13:20 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Oh and the GBPJPY cross couldnt break overhead t/l resistance at 242.20.

UK Alex 13:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
MPC told to give rises time to bite

London NYAM 13:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:30 GMT July 27, 2007
s/t trend line support here at 118.57/63 may hold and offer quick rise to top area of potential limited triangle fo. Buying here haf size tight stop for 119.25 area.

Out at 118.88 +26

HK Kevin 13:15 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:09 GMT, thank you, My assumption on USD/JPY is wrong with 118.50 has been broken this Asian morning. All the best to you

Syd 13:13 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:10 GMT but if they raise again too soon will cause further collasp of the markets along witht the property market, my guess is they will hold fear factor

UK Alex 13:12 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:10 GMT July 27, 2007
NIESR say it will take longer for the effects of past hikes to feed through and the Bank of England should be more patient and proceed with caution.

HK Kevin 13:12 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong WT 11:52 GMT, USD/CAD has turned into a buy mose with the break of 1.0580.
In a trending market, don't do contra trades unless you are sittting in front of a screen and enter trades at significant supports/ resistances. Most important of all, you are not hestinate to cut loss.

Mtl JP 13:10 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:05 / They will be re-making their mistake IF they hold. Price-Inflationary perception anchor run the risk of un-mooring and the CB falling further behing the ball.

HK [email protected] 13:09 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:03 GMT July 27, 2007

I shall rather look at the charts rather than on political events which may get twisted here to there.

Likely the outcome of the elections is known to all, so it is already factored. The financial institution and the big tycoons will remain in their place, why mind the politicians too much.

Lahore FM 13:08 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 10:59 GMT July 27, 2007
short usdcad 1.0596,stops at 1.0640.

===
closed half at 55 for 41 pips.stops to entry.

Lahore FM 13:08 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:37 GMT July 27, 2007
long audusd 0.8588,stopless for now.

---
closed half at 0.8630 for 42 pips.stops to 0.8580 for half.

UK Alex 13:06 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:04 GMT July 27, 2007
I think the worry is that the slowdown will spread beyond the shores of America. As metal prices have been trading at lofty levels it should not come as a surprise.

Syd 13:05 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
The Bank of England is expected to keep rates on hold next week.

After hiking rates five times in 11 months to 5.75% economists believe that the majority of MPC will now be happy to wait and see what impact the tightening will have on the economy and if it will be enough to tame inflation.

"The case for the MPC holding fire in August at least has been boosted in recent days by the Confederation of British Industry's industrial trend survey showing that the manufacturing sector lost significant momentum in July, with fewer companies expecting to raise their domestic prices over the next three months," said Howard Archer, chief U.K. and European economist for Global Insight.

HK [email protected] 13:04 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
I think it is of no use attributing too much importance to US fundamentals this time, as the americans have scandalized their image with those terrible liquidity problems.

HK Kevin 13:03 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 12:53 GMT, kindly have your views on the impact of Japan Upper House election on YEN? I think it's a non-event.

UK Alex 13:02 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Base metals shrug off advance US 2Q GDP data, as it comes in just above expectations, notes BNP Paribas analyst David Thurtell. "That data goes back more than three months, and there's been a fair amount of water under the bridge since then," he says. The US housing market has weakened more significantly than people expected...generally things are looking a little more dicey than they were even a month ago." Most metals are close to flat from Thursday, however nickel is down 1% after a large stock build in LME data
Friday.

HK [email protected] 12:53 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Gold likely will test the 657, below that may get a sharp move below 650.

Yen too may be pushed over the cliff to 117+-30 pips if it will manage to break the last low at 118.

HK Kevin 12:53 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, USD/JPY 119.40 still not seen.

Gen dk 12:52 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 12:50 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
A knee-jerk reaction more like.

hk ab 12:47 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
relief rally time. All yen crosses move simultaneously.

UK Alex 12:44 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
The improvement in the second quarter was concentrated in a stronger trade performance, faster government spending and a rebuilding of inventories after significant reductions in the past two quarters. These offset a sharp slowdown in consumer spending.

UK Alex 12:39 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
U.S. Q2 GDP up 3.4%

Syd 12:38 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
US GDP +3.4% Rate In 2Q; Consensus +3.3%

hk ab 12:34 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
any data?

Mtl JP 12:28 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
risk event on deck:
12:30GMT - 2Q GDP, advance. Markt: +3.2%. Previous: +0.7%.

Syd 12:27 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:23 many thanks very much appreciated

del th 12:27 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
my apologies......

London NYAM 12:24 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
del th 12:19 GMT July 27, 2007
Come on the market int that boring that we have to bait people. Lets just trade or keep it positive huh? GLGT

Hong Kong Qindex 12:23 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 11:50 GMT - AUD/USD : When the market is trading below [0.8606] the two downside targeting points are 0.8390* and 0.8534*.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:21 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : Heading Towards 100.78*

del th 12:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
zeus, who is your new friend mike? or are you the same person?

London NYAM 12:09 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
1/3 size pos long GBPUSD here at 2.0113 looking for 2.0375/80
mental stop under local low.

moscow mike 12:09 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:02 GMT July 25, 2007
Short AUD/USD .8866

USA Zeus 05:17 GMT July 25, 2007
Sold U/J 120.30 & e/j 166.15

USA Zeus 06:07 GMT July 23, 2007
Today's favored trade-
Sell GBP/USD over 2.06

USA Zeus 05:55 GMT July 24, 2007
Was able to add short GBP/USD 2.0652

==========================
Neighborhood is proud of you, well done job.
Forget the ones who forget to read origins before chit-chats


GT

Syd 11:59 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Mkt Jitters Could Put European Central Banks On Hold
Jitters in global financial markets could cause the European Central Bank to push back its next rate hike and see the Bank of England pause its current cycle of hikes altogether, some economists say.

European stocks plunged Thursday, suffering their second-worst one-day loss of the year, as global fears about credit markets spilled over into equities.

Hong Kong WT 11:52 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Small fish me, square everything. 7X pips lost in this loonie top picking. Commentaries said US GDP will not be good. Nothing to do now. After US GDP is another story. Looking for another loonie top picking opportunity. Still no comfortable buy up usdcad on a down trend. Will you believe there is a downtrend on usdcad?? I believe so.

Syd 11:50 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex do you have a target for the Aud/USD thks

LDN Mahmood 11:49 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
la oleg 11:21 - Not only is JF a great trader but also has the personality to match. On the other hand Zeus (aka Las veGAS Jon) is the forum's "village idiot".

LOL.

London NYAM 11:47 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
FM the gods of volatility are smiling.
AND of course Zeus the local god also called that. ;)

Lahore FM 11:44 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
NYAM,am thankful the market did not hibernate the way it does this time of the summer each year.

Lahore FM 11:43 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:41 GMT July 27, 2007
lolzzz....thanx dear!

Syd 11:42 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
US Stk Futures Plunge In Sign Thurs Weakness Has More To Go
U.S. stock market futures declined Friday after the huge sell-off in the past session, ahead of data expected to show a pick-up in economic growth and a drop in inflation during the second quarter.
After early gains, S&P 500 futures fell 9 points at 1478.90 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 10.50 points at 1990. Dow industrial futures dropped 75 points to 13459.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:42 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : A projected barrier is located at 101.04.

London NYAM 11:41 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
FM you espouse patience but clearly when the volitility rises your not afraid to jump in guns blazing. Im glad I got to see it in action this week. great trading.

London NYAM 11:41 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
FM you espouse patience but clearly when the volitility rises your not afraid to jump in guns blazing. Im glad I got to see it in action this week. great trading.

Mtl JP 11:40 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Alex 11:14 / I suspect that "the Nikkei 225 fell 418 points to 17,283, with exporters particularly hurt on fears about the US economy" is only a partial reason. I suspect that Nikkei first 202 point plunge (on July 17/18) was revealing of a re-definition of "contagion" not being just endogenous to US "other sectors of the economy", rather having the ability to have international abilities. I have not yet seen any reports of Alphonso peddling efforts (non) success trying to persuade the Chinese to pick up some the toxic paper. You ?

Lahore FM 11:38 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
NYAM have lost pips yes.165 plus 27 plus 40. but have made six times as many.

Lahore FM 11:37 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
long audusd 0.8588,stopless for now.

London NYAM 11:37 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
FM Have you actually lost any pips on anything this week? I'm pretty gobsmacked.

Ldn 11:37 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
FX NOW! AUD/USD, AUD/JPY Flows - 'Just get me out!' the explanation for the price action in London this morning
4cast.

Lahore FM 11:35 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:03 GMT July 13, 2007
sold gold 666.60.stopless for now.

-------------------
closed half at 660.00 for 6.60.

Lahore FM 11:33 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Zeus my friend,what gets folks here is that you won't state buy or sell and not give an entry or stop.i don't see it changing even if all folks here pull their hair out for i consider that individual style but no one is willing to give you the right to style.

hk ab 11:33 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
seems obvious that mkt is going to collapse again.
whether or not PPT will give out a hand....

USA Zeus 11:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
There- out remaining core e/j 161.80 from 166.20 for +440

Lahore FM 11:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
la oleg 11:21 GMT July 27, 2007
i testify to what oleg says of JF's real time trades in markets,even runaway markets on both sides of global-view,gvi and ff ,are excellent!

USA Zeus 11:30 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
I am not laughing- Not a popularity contest nor straw poll.

London NYAM 11:30 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
s/t trend line support here at 118.57/63 may hold and offer quick rise to top area of potential limited triangle fo. Buying here haf size tight stop for 119.25 area.

la oleg 11:21 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, frankly your challenge to jf is laughable... you're a decent if somewhat eccentric fellow and i do think sometimes you are singled out unfairly, but over the years jf's posting of real and actual top quality trades with precisely defined risk easily exceeds what you have posted in mere useless verbiage... which is no mean feat.

UK Alex 11:14 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
If you just sit on an overvalued asset, it’s only a matter of time before the market realises that it’s actually not worth what you paid for it, and marks it down accordingly. Then all you’re left with is a huge debt to service, usually at a time when suddenly your job looks less secure, debt servicing costs are rising and creditors are much less sympathetic than when they loaned you the money in the first place.

USA Zeus 11:12 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
There we go- last quarter core GBP/USD out at 2.0285 for +367

UK Alex 11:10 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 11:06 GMT July 27, 2007
Smart money will already have sold on the way up. It's called selling into strength and this applies to all asset classes.

JKT ACDC 11:10 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
FM, You got me there. I am very very restless at times. Need to control it.thanks a lot. You have been a great help

Helsinki iw 11:09 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Local wires running story about explosion on Russian nuclear sub in the Murmansk area. No details so far.

Monaco Oil man 11:06 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
The journalist doesn't think that people entering after 5 years of constant upside are a bit late in the , "buy and hold" in stocks?

Cali mmm 11:06 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Thank you FM. I am short at 98. Kind of low for comfort. Will watch closely. Regards.

Lahore FM 11:05 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
mmm.it might range vibrate around 118.80 with 50 pips up and down.try to get in at the right price.

Lahore FM 11:04 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 10:59 GMT July 27, 2007
try selling into 119.20 area for 118.40,stops around 119.50 /60 look okay for now.

Lahore FM 11:03 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
JKT ACDC 10:59 GMT July 27, 2007
i have helped change one of my signals service cient from a scalper to a position trader.if he reads this post he will vouch for that.hope you now hunt for medium term to long term trades too.present market is good for medium term positioning but one has to wait for this sort of market action to begin.the wait sometimes can be the difficult part and if one is impatient then one might just about more than break even.so patience in ranges is important.

UK Alex 11:00 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
When 'buy and hold' simply doesn't work

Lahore FM 10:59 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
short usdcad 1.0596,stops at 1.0640.

JKT ACDC 10:59 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
FM, Thanks the reason why i asked is because I am a day trader or you could say scalper. I really think I should change as I have made some good entries but have closed it so early that I actually want to kick myself later. It keeps happening. I want to try some long term trades and your info about equity really helps

Cali mmm 10:59 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hi FM. Can I have your view / target for USDJPY ? TKS!

Lahore FM 10:58 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
additional long eurgbp 0.6717.no stops.

USA Zeus 10:56 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 10:52 GMT July 27, 2007

If all you want is some clarification then ask. Please don't shoot someone down as the form of inquiry with obvious jabs and stabs. It is one thing to be a "skeptic" without any proof of the otherwise.

Ask Jaymond for my e-mail.

Lahore FM 10:53 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
JKT ACDC 10:48 GMT July 27, 2007
anything between 15 to 20 percent-would take up more positions when some are already into profit and secured.also when on techs it is picture perfect for my own analysis.

nj jf 10:52 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
z.. get my email from jay.. as for your comments/ look anyone who disagrees with you or asks for clarification is the anti-christ.. you take it so personally. im happy to see everyone's trades because i can agree or disagree and bet the same way or against it. when it becomes a crime to ask for you to be slightly clearer let me know.

Lahore FM 10:51 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
tentative long eurusd 1.3642.stopless for the time.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:49 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : Heading Towards 100.78

The market is negative when it is trading below 103.09.

JKT ACDC 10:48 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hi FM

You have called some fascinating trades. Can I know what maximum percentage of your equity do you risk.

Thanks

Lahore FM 10:48 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:41 GMT July 26, 2007
long usdchf 1.2036,mind stops at 1.2008.
----------------------------------------

closed half at 1.2124 for 88 pips.placed stops now to entry.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:47 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Heading Towards 161.62

Lahore FM 10:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
long gbpusd 2.0306,stopless for now.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:43 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Heading Towards 239.81

UK comotosed 10:41 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
I see that the "King of Spin" is tossing his toys out of his pram again...

Lahore FM 10:41 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:19 GMT July 26, 2007
long 94.20 on ndjpy no stops just now.

--------
cut at 92.55 for 165 pip loss.was to be originally cut at 93.10 but had some net trouble at that time.

USA Zeus 10:38 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Well out another 1/4 (that leaves 1/4....1-.5-.25 LOL)
core GBP/USD 2.0314 for some long straws. LOL

Shenzhen Laowen 10:37 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 10:34 GMT July 27, 2007 //

Mate what about your non-stop NzdJpy long from 94.19? GL and GT.

Mtl JP 10:37 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Alex 00:29 July 26 / I wrote to the good Governor asking that same Qtn; still awaiting a reply.

In the meantime: US Senate panel overwhelmingly approves currency legislation aimed at China - IHT

"...The measure would apply "to any trading partner with (an) out-of-whack currency," Grassley said. And because many of the bill's punitive measures don't kick in for six months or a year, "It's a velvet glove with a steel fist inside," he added. ..."

When janitors get into position of power, they make one sorry spectacle. LOL

hk ab 10:36 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Raden, 2.00 before 2.09.....

Lahore FM 10:36 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:42 GMT July 26, 2007
Lahore FM 09:22 GMT July 23, 2007
audusd shorts from 0.8800 and 0.8820 area stopped at 0.8830 for almost break even due to partial profits at 0.8767 on friday.

--
short again at 0.8840.stops at 0.8890.
---
Out of half at 0.8802 for 38 pips.stops lowered to 0.8860 for remainder.

----
Out of remainder at 0.8615 for cumulative profit of 225 pips.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:36 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : 
The market is negative when it is trading below 103.09.

USA Zeus 10:36 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 10:14 GMT July 27, 2007


Further- Since you seem obligated to be the designated "pro" that offers dogmatic pontifications with determining strong and weak skills of others as if you know- why don't we compare some real time trades?

We can call it the "amatuer" vs the "pro". We can report trades in a preformated template to keep you (and Dick) happy. That way your self-imposed "scepticism" will not only understand good entry techniques but money management and risk management as well.

I see your trades on the other side and think your strong skill is not trading. So, why not give it a shot and see who ends up with the "short straw"?


I'll have my money on the amateur.
LOL

GVI john 10:35 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI



Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Lahore FM 10:34 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:33 GMT July 26, 2007
short 2.0555,no stops.

------------
out of full at 2.0320 for 235 pips.

UK Alex 10:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
WestLB traders of stock held by the bank are suspected of manipulating daily closing prices of preference shares in companies including BMW and Volkswagen.

In doing so, they inflated the bank’s profits, at least on paper, securing themselves bonuses. The bank has said the equity propriety desk’s actions resulted in losses of about €243m (£163m), but German press reports claim the real figure could be between €400m and €500m.

Helsinki iw 10:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
And where is the PPT??

Sydney ACC 10:28 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Where is PAR and his Japanese consiparcies.
PAR 11:33 GMT July 26, 2007
120.00 is the line in the sand . Boj will not allow USDJPY to close below 120.00 because it would reduce their small trade surplus .

USA Zeus 10:26 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 10:14 GMT July 27, 2007

Guy you can bich and moan all you like. Seems you and the other have that in common. YES I had a bad trade- WTF? Guess that will be legendary here. Some LT possies are built with such strat as the CAD possie buildup. I explained from the start of that position buildup that it was different posting than earlier styles posted before and NOT for the faint of heart. But, luckily, I do not post to attract customers to trade for nor peddle some signals.

How many trades are there? Strong point is making gains and money management is very good (thx for the attempted blow however).

Explained to you specifically when you complained about a GBP trade that just happened to be at a peak for a core. It makes great risk/money management to take scalp+core trades if it is an extreme price, peel off the scalps and hold the core's at b/e- a near risk free trade at smth bigger (remember this conversation or should I look it up and repaste it for you and the world to see?)


Most work some do not. Your public plea for anti sentiment is pathetic. Scepticise all you like. I explained this to you specifically in the past as you seem to be so agitated at good entry points (which are posted in real time of course)

Happy Day!

UK Alex 10:18 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hearing Japanese importers were very pleased with 118 overnight.

USA Zeus 10:15 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Well it is a Friday and the clog must be enjoying some of his time away.
Dick is obviously back and already said he was an angry feller yesterday when he switched to "duck".

Will let the poor guy say what makes himself feel better since he has nothing else to offer. LOL

Happy Day!

nj jf 10:14 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
zeus.. think theres a degree of scepticism based on observation of past actions. eurusd drops 100 pips the usd camp will grow and grow. the mkt rallies 300 pips your long at the low, the mkt drops 300 your short at the high. also looking how you traded $cad earlier seems risk management isnt your strong point. so perhaps best to keep it simple so those who follow your views dont get the short straw.

Syd 10:11 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
UK-based bank trader says Hedge Fund Basis Capital had to close out yen cross position says further slippage will trigger a sell off in GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY .

USA Zeus 10:04 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Smth else for our friend-

USA Zeus 17:52 GMT July 18, 2007
Been short USD for quite some time but late comers to the party tell me smth as EUR and GBP are near annual targets set by the wirehouses.

Some said it was difficult as they faded up and they'll be burned at the top after a flip-flop tired of the battle but ever so complacent from on high.


USA Zeus 05:55 GMT July 24, 2007
Was able to add short GBP/USD 2.0652
___________________________________________________

Just covered 1/2(That's two quarters LOL) @ 2.0350 for +302

LOL

USA 10:01 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 09:58 GMT July 27, 2007
Yeap...its Bob with his rubber chickens again....

HK Kevin 09:58 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab, all positions closed.
Watch for the reaction of USD/JPY at 119.45 level to sell

USA Zeus 09:58 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Finnmark Thor 08:27 GMT July 27, 2007

Smth tells me we know who is hiding here!
LOL

Core's are taken with scalps at extremes as commented and explained a million times here. Quarters for scalps and quarters for core possies.....ahhhh

Syd 09:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY is likely to consolidate between 119.80 and 118.50 before further downside pressure takes it toward 117.60, says BNP Paribas

Syd 09:44 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Ashley Davies, FX strategist at UBS dlr/yen 106 end of year

hk ab 09:40 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Gecko, there are 3 alloys floor at 640, 650 and 660.... each of them should take lots of efforts to break.

hk ab 09:37 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
lots of volatility in yen

van Gecko 09:31 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   

climbing climbing 金山..
the Gold mountain @July 27

hk ab 09:26 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
the yen crosses animals are relentless.....

UK Alex 09:21 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
chf/yen looking interesting.

Syd 09:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Main data event Friday is US advance 2Q GDP and Royal Bank of Scotland says after a disastrous 1Q, when growth advanced just 0.7% (annualized), activity bounced back vigorously in the spring. The bank says risks are skewed to a stronger-than-expected outturn and this could reinforce the weaker EUR/USD tone.

hk ab 09:17 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
long small euro here.

UK Alex 09:06 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
The chief executive of German state bank WestLB has stepped down along with the head of the bank's risk management, Matthijs van den Adel, because of an alleged cover-up of the loss of millions of euros from illegal equity trading deals. The bank has confirmed that chief executive Thomas Fischer is out and has been replaced by Alexander Stuhlmann, the former head of HSH Nordbank.

WestLB has previously said it expects losses from the deals to amount to nearly 250 million euros. The management crisis could lead to the bank's sale. It is owned by the local government of North Rhine-Westphalia and politician Gerhard Papke does not think what has happened should not have an effect on its value. He said: "WestLB as a whole is in perfect condition in spite of these unpleasant events which will be fixed quickly. I'm sure that there are a lot of investors interested in WestLB."

Among the potential foreign investors that have been speculated about in the German media are Royal Bank of Scotland, Rabobank of the Netherlands and BNP Paribas.

Gen dk 08:51 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Richland QC Mailman 08:40 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
aussie - 8560 happens to be the end of the TL drawn from May 30's 8170. Price has bounced so far and could temporarily hold this huge sell off since yesterday.

Finnmark Thor 08:27 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   

nj jf 21:47 GMT July 26, 2007
zeus ....did you post entry levels for these trades ?

Interesting observation,

I am to old for the new math, but there are only so many quarters right, but again I am old and not to wise. But in new math you can do wonderful things I hear, so perhaps we can all learn to fulfill fantasies. Man I made 300 pips today, oh sorry only on paper
but here is how I see see it, how can you close 100% of the deal and still have more to close 300 pips later, man I love the new math

SA Zeus 06:12 GMT July 25, 2007
Well feelin' the mojo Como.

covered remaining e/j laser scalpal @ 165.94

USA Zeus 06:07 GMT July 25, 2007
Covered another 1/4 e/j @ 166.02 for laser Perrie

USA Zeus 06:05 GMT July 25, 2007
Covered 1/2 e/j 166.07 for laser Perrie







Syd 08:25 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
The NZD isn't only suffering from the unwinding of carry trades. News that New Zealand's trade deficit widened al the way out to NZD524M instead of just to NZD269M as expected and that exports fell 18% on the month indicates that the currency's recent strength is eating into export performance after all. "This should help keep the kiwi softer," warns Bear Stearns.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:21 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : Heading Towards 161.69


The current expected trading ranges are 161.69* - 162.34 - [164.28]

Hong Kong Qindex 08:17 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges are 234.21* - 238.02 - 241.84 - 243.75

Syd 08:06 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
The report below Ben Pedly commented on today on CNBCasia saying its very bearish for the Kiwi if this goes ahead .

Syd 07:49 GMT July 27, 2007
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is urging changes to government policy to cool the country's overheated housing market and tame persistent inflation pressures, according to a submission by the bank to a parliamentary inquiry released Friday

Syd 08:00 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
ADB warns on unwinding of carry trade
By Raphael Minder in Hong Kong
East Asia’s financial markets are vulnerable to a sudden unwinding of yen-carry trades and withdrawal of the capital that has lifted many of the region’s currencies, according to the Asian Development Bank.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/461f0b9a-3b4f-11dc-8002-0000779fd2ac.html

Syd 07:55 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Global risk aversion has soared back to levels last seen in September 2001, says UBS. The bank said its Risk Index is now up at 1.78 from 0.98 on Thursday. This takes it back up to levels last seen in the wake of 9/11 when the index made it as high as 2.27. The bank pointed to Thursday's sharp decline in equities and the widening in high yielder and emerging market spreads as the reason for the increase.

Syd 07:53 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Forex Focus: The Kiwi May Be Leading Carry Trade Reversal


By Nicholas Hastings Just as the canary was an indicator of poisonous gas in coal mines, the kiwi could prove to be an indicator of a fall in global liquidity.

Look at the way the New Zealand dollar fell off its perch despite the hike in New Zealand interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this week.

With New Zealand rates now up at 8.25%, this hike made the highest-yielding of the 10 major traded currencies even more attractive. However, investors still shied away, as concerns over a credit crunch rose and global appetite for risk faded away.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand could be at least partially to blame for the losses.

It tried to play down the rate rise, suggesting that after four successive hikes, rates are probably high enough to keep a lid on inflation.

RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said: "New Zealanders have been showing early signs of moderating their borrowing."

Bollard also helped to discourage any bullish reaction by the kiwi by warning once again that the currency is hurting the export sector and that its current strength isn't sustainable. Earlier this summer, the central bank intervened in an attempt to halt the currency's advance and the threat of a repeat exercise remains.

These comments help to explain the kiwi's reversal, with the market now looking to economic evidence over the next few weeks that the rates don't need to be hiked any further.

"The performance of the New Zealand dollar remains data dependent," said Sharada Selvanathan, a current strategist with BNP Paribas in Singapore.

However, the New Zealand dollar's somewhat unexpected decline also comes at a time when global investment flows may be starting to shift.

A steady rise in concern over U.S. subprime mortgages over the last week appears to be spreading into other markets, with each day bringing reports of financing difficulties being faced by corporations as the global appetite for risk dries up.

Apart from poor earnings forecasts from financial institutions and companies directly affiliated with the housing market, other companies are finding that they are having to pay considerably more in the corporate debt market as lenders shy away.

This week, the purchasers of a GM transmission subsidiary, the private equity buyers of Chrysler and Alliance Boots have all faced difficulties putting together debt packages.

This decline in liquidity is also being reflected in global equity markets, where prices are tending to sink unless they get support from improved earnings reports.

Risk aversion also continues to rise with the latest reading of the UBS Risk Index showing another steady increase, suggesting that interest in carry trades, whereby purchases in high-yielding currency assets are funded by selling low yielders, is on the wane.

For high-yielders, such as the New Zealand dollar, this could spell the end of recent support that has pushed them steadily higher at the expense of low-yielding currencies such as the yen.

"The RBNZ's rate decision provided the clearest hint yet from any of the major monetary tighteners that rates may have peaked, albeit the hint was heavily qualified," said David Simmonds, head of foreign exchange strategy at The Royal Bank of Scotland in London.

The key thing now is whether the kiwi will continue to decline, reflecting the decline in global liquidity as investors pull back into lower risk assets, or whether it will once again track rate hike expectations on the basis on New Zealand economic data alone.

Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist with Bear Stearns International, reckons that although the rate cycle may not yet have changed, "the kiwi will continue to peel back" in the short term.

Over at RBC Capital Markets, senior currency strategist Adam Cole argues that little has changed.

"This is not the New Zealand dollar-negative story that the knee-jerk reaction suggests," he said.

"For the extreme high and low yielding currencies in particular, recent price action has overwhelmingly been driven by outright rate levels rather than rate dynamics," Cole said, suggesting that simply the high level of New Zealand rates will keep the kiwi well supported for now.

Early Friday, as the subprime concerns continued to waft through international markets, knocking the Nikkei down 2.4% after the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.26%, the New Zealand dollar remained under pressure - tumbling to $0.7730 by 0645 GMT from $0.7832 late Thursday in New York, according to EBS.

The dollar was also down at Y118.52 from Y118.66, while the euro fell to $1.3720 from $1.3751 as European stocks are also expected to open on the downside.



Gen dk 07:53 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 07:49 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is urging changes to government policy to cool the country's overheated housing market and tame persistent inflation pressures, according to a submission by the bank to a parliamentary inquiry released Friday. Housing prices have moved well beyond levels that would be sustainable over the medium term, but there is only so much that monetary authorities can do to address the problem, especially if tax and immigration policies are aggravating the situation, the central bank said in the submission. The official benchmark interest rate is a blunt tool and its influence on inflation is "rather imprecise," it said.
"The Reserve Bank believes that a relatively neutral environment for investment assets is important, to ensure that monetary policy does not end up fighting pressures that result from tax or regulatory distortions," the central bank said. "Owning houses is favored by New Zealand's tax system, and this may have been a factor in sustaining the recent housing cycle," the submission said. Along with changes to taxation of housing investment, the central bank proposed flexible controls on levels of immigration to reduce demand for residential property. The RBNZ has led efforts by policy makers to push for alternative tightening measures to curb persistent price pressures emanating from the housing market, as interest rates are already so high that it has nearly run out of ammunition in its battle against inflation.Comprehensive proposals released Friday are among the key recommendations made by the RBNZ to the Parliamentary inquiry into to the future monetary policy framework. Preliminary details were released last month. The central bank said it may be appropriate to consider tax measures such as ring-fencing of operating losses on investment properties. Ring-fencing would effectively end the current practice of investors setting off tax losses accrued on rental property against income earned from other sources. "The committee may wish to consider the case for limiting the ability to deduct income losses on investment activities against wage and salary income, and/or undertake a broader review of the taxation of investment income," the RBNZ said.

hk ab 07:49 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
The easiest way to steal all the monies from censored housewives is: luring them to buy a x3 leverage carry, then when all their funds have entered, the bank use a x 10 leverage to crush their crosses, the interest paid to them would be right equal to the loss after several years. (I believe that carry monies are not as liquid as fx)......

a/j in the extreme case can erase 1000 pips gains in a week.

hk ab 07:35 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
yes be careful, the players are now pushing the majors down rather than dlr/jpy....

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:28 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
we have seen gbp/usd touched 2.0374 now.
be carefull. time frame is intraday trade.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:26 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd buy now at 1.3707 for tgt 1.3777 buy again if meet 1.3680. stop loss be placed at 1.3660.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:22 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY :
Daily Directional Indicator : "119.45" - "119.60*" - 121.26 - (121.41) - 121.70*

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 119.45. Projected resistant points are located at 119.60 and 121.41. The supporting strength of the daily cycle at 118.25 // 118.43* is going to be challenged.

Daily Cycle (120.50) : ... 117.40 - 117.74* - 118.08 - 118.25 // 118.43* - 118.60 - 118.77 - 118.94 - 119.11* - 119.28 - [119.45] - 119.62 - 119.79* - 119.96 - 120.13 - 120.30 - 120.48* // 120.65 - 120.82 - 121.16* - 121.50 ...


Upside Targeting Points : 120.48 and 120.68


Downside Targeting Points : 117.74 and 118.08


Weekly Distribution of Super Magnets : (116.31) - (118.86) - 119.20* - 119.37 - "119.45" - "119.60*" - 120.32 - 120.45* - 121.26 - (121.41) - 121.70* - 122.21 - 122.96* - 123.16 - (123.96) - 124.21* - (126.51)

lnd rob 07:22 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:07 GMT July 27, 2007

whats your time frame - TIA

Pecs Andras 07:21 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Anybody has a view on EUR/AUD?

Shenzhen Laowen 07:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Raden,. you said earlier that 2.0572 was the target.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:17 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
my chart system said that nearest top tgt 2.0472-77 will be touched soon for today.

any same opinion with me?

HK Kevin 07:08 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 07:03, no problem, Sir!

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:07 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
lets play gbp/usd for intraday trade.
from low today at around 2.0374 (have done by represented 2.0377) will fly till top tgt 2.0572.stop loss little below 2.0374
lets go !!!. dont be late.

me,
raden

madrid mm 07:06 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Sell Kiwi? Not When Yen's Cheap, and Milk Isn't.
bloomberg Click here

Hong Kong Qindex 07:03 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 07:00 GMT - Good afternoon! I am not watching EUR/USD.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:03 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
good morning Europe.

HK Kevin 07:00 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, good afternoon. Could I be able to short EUR at 1.3770-80 today?

Hong Kong Qindex 06:56 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The expected trading range from my monthly cycle charts is 117.45 - 119.24. The downside trending momentum is strong and the market has potential to tackle the barrier at 115.70 // 117.12*.

HK Kevin 06:51 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Thinking of some counter trade in long USD/JPY. However, abandon the ideas after looking at the daily chart. Fri is always a down day for this pair during in the downwave on Dec 06 and Mar 07

madrid mm 06:49 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
This is all over the shop !!!
Ok , relax, breath in, breath out , breath in, breath out !!!
8+-)

AUD coming for some more !!!! No prisonners !!!

hk ab 06:48 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
welcome the aud roller coaster. These guys must be trading with tick chart.

HK Kevin 06:48 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Could I be able to short EUR at 1.3770-80 today?

hk ab 06:46 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
those big players from raden are also swept away on gbp...

hk ab 06:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
after a/j, next fight will be @ e/j

hk ab 06:43 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
big players fight.

hk ab 06:43 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
taken 20 pips back

madrid mm 06:41 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD ------ Timbeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrr 8+-)

HK Kevin 06:41 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
8510/20 may be today's bottom for AUD

hk ab 06:40 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
remove limit add 8573 instead

HK Kevin 06:39 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 06:17 GMT, AUD under 8710 might drop 2 big fgures in 1 day, tak care.
Covered half long USD/CAD at 1.1595. Still hold short AUD and NZD.

hk ab 06:33 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
c9 and housewives on the heat....

Richland QC Mailman 06:22 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Hi folks! Closed the final 1/3 possies of aussies opened yesterday 8854 at 8700 earlier. (It is still falling though.)

Suffered losses on usd/chf longs 1.2076 at 1.2040. But I think 1.2020 low would hold. Thus opened new possies 1.2045 and 1.2039 stop at 1.2010, target 1.2090-100.

hk ab 06:19 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
I think thiis is just the prelude of the massive carry unwind, the pairs (yen crosses) will make some nice corrections first before the REAL one in Sept end....

hk ab 06:17 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
syd, buy some here and orders waiting 8605.

madrid mm 06:15 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
it looks to me at the moment , they don t want to give a break for the UAD, KIWI, YEN !!!
8+-)

To the last drop !!!!

hk ab 06:15 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
aud/jpy game is even more exciting.

Sydney ACC 05:57 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:48 GMT July 27, 2007
Don't know, but the way it buckled higher up I'd say it needs to get down to 0.8550 area to build some foundation.
Remember when it peaked in 1989 it fell 13 big figures in five weeks.

madrid mm 05:49 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
* Japan core CPI coming in at -0.1%y/y for June. Tokyo Core CPI coming in at -0.1%y/y, in line with expectation. Overall CPI coming in at -0.2%y/y nationwide, and Tokyo overall CPI -0.1%y/y for July.

* Japan June retail sales -0.4%y/y, worse than expectation +0.6%y/y,

* Chief Cabinet Sec Yasuhisa Shiozaki says there is no change in Japan economic fundamentals and no comment on market moves - including JPY rise and stocks fall. Shiozaki says BoJ is the one to decide on monetary policy and reiterates end of deflation is in sight.

* Japan large business lobby Keidanren's Chairman Fujio Mitarai says, in BBG interview, the current level of the yen is too weak and is squeezing profits of companies that rely on imports of materials.

* US Trsy Henry Paulson says he is a strong USD man, markets seeing risks re-priced, economy healthy. IMF must "vigorously" pursue strong course on FX surveillance. Supports France's Dominique Strauss-Kahn for IMF top job.

* US Senate Finance Committee voted 20-1 to give US Treasury new tools to pressure China on currency. Senator Max Baucus says CNY is "the focus of our concerns." Sen Charles Grassley says bill would stop Bush Adminstratoion trom "pussyfooting" on the issue.

* US Treasury says it cannot support the currency legislation, respects intent to send strong message to China, but believes the approach is wrong. Bill distances US from multilateral approach and raises concerns on trade rules compliance.

* NZ June trade deficit at -NZD524m, wider than NZD269 expected.

Another very Choppy trading today in Asia as early Sydney session continued where NY left off, selling Cross/JPY in what is continuation of Cross/JPY driven plays, and JPY carry trades unwinding on risk aversion, credit crunch, subprime woes, as Dow suffered 311pts or 2.26% loss to 13,473, and braving for more losses in Asian markets.

USD/JPY hit fresh 3-m lows of 118.02 from NY close of 118.70 in the "heat" of JPY carry trades unwinding in thin markets, before Japanese names came into bottom fish, triggering short-squeeze to 118.70.

Japan CPI, retail sales data did not support further JPY buying, with Japanese investors again coming in to push USD/JPY, Cross/JPY up, trading above 119, b4 "someone" bot $100m to push it to day highs of 119.30, a >Y1 move.

Cross/JPY did the same "V" recovery, with EUR/JPY down from 163.18 NY close, to 6-wk lows 162.40, then up toward 164 as Japanese investors seem to be picking bottom, while institutionals, hedge funds, models looking to sell on rallies.

Kiwi suffered further bouts of selling, after yesterday's RBNZ comments of OCR (Kiwi?) peaking, and triggering more downside. NZD/USD hit stoploss below 0.7815, hitting 2 week lows of 0.7794, before edging up to 0.7875 again, in very choppy trading.

NZD/JPY very volatile, extending its 5-Y losses to 92 from 96.80 yest after RBNZ, b4 rebounding 2Y to 93.80-90, AUD/JPY down to 102.70, up to 104.50 and down again as AUD back down at 0.8720 after rising from selloff to 2-wk lows 0.8689, then up to 0.8769.

Asian stocks broadly lower, but "some calm returning". Eye US GDP.

Nikkei -432pts, 2.44% at 3-m lows 17,270. JGBs firmer on credit fears as yield hit 2-m lows, -0.065% 1.790%. Sep crude oil firmer in Asia $75.38, +$0.43.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.05/119.30, EUR/USD 1.3738/1.3753, GBP/USD 2.0457/2.0495, USD/CHF 1.2025/1.2051, AUD/USD 0.8689/0.8769, NZD/USD 0.7794/0.7875.

Syd 05:48 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:46 any more to come

Sydney ACC 05:46 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
I'm hearing Russian sellers of AUD started this drop.

madrid mm 05:41 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
GM FX JEDI !!!

Son, if you really want something in this life, you have to work for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers. - Homer Simpson

Syd 05:02 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:52 GMT hi, yes looing around that area too

hk ab 04:52 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
syd//do u think aud settles yet? want to try some longs from 86xx.

Wellington, N.Z. 04:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for FRIDAY - JULY 27th:



My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

HK [email protected] 04:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
For those who want to scoop bottoms in Usd/yen maybe try to apply the following Shanghai bc rule.

And give a protection in case it may not apply this time.

//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
USD/JPY HINTS


One of the silly rules of thumb in USD/JPY trading is it rarely moves 700-800 pips in a row without 200 pips or more correction in the middle and it almost always retraces back to 350 pips advance point from the start of its 700-800 pips move. All because of liquidity problem in Yen market.
...................................................................................

geneva 04:35 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 02:58 GMT July 27, 2007

The dollar/jpy was not in the same situation. Jpy bottomed. buy on the deep! GL

hk ab 04:24 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
oil man, seems you see history is repeating on e/j.....

Syd 04:02 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
RB Raises OCR – "Consequences Are Unacceptable"
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU0707/S00498.htm

USA Zeus 04:00 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Still think oil and gold are en route to their rendezvous (pardon my french) points.

USA Zeus 03:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 21:47 GMT July 26, 2007

Yes, I did.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:45 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Spot Gold : The market is working on the barrier at 660.1* // 667.0. It is likely that the market will vibrate around 660.1 with an expected magnitude of 646.4 - 673.9. The current expected trading ranges from the monthly cycle projected series are [618.8] - 625.7 - 632.6* - 639.5 - 646.4 - 653.2 - 660.1* // 667.0 - 673.9 - 687.7*.

hk ab 03:37 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
since raden publicly announce the imp't of 665.0 then the funds decided to make a fatal thunderstrike.

Now back to the normal. RF, let's see if 630 or 690 prints first from here.

Mtl JP 03:30 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
US Senate panel overwhelmingly approves currency legislation aimed at China - IHT

"...The measure would apply "to any trading partner with (an) out-of-whack currency," Grassley said. And because many of the bill's punitive measures don't kick in for six months or a year, "It's a velvet glove with a steel fist inside," he added. ..."

rofl, when janitors get into position of power, they make one sorry spectacle.

dc CB 03:18 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
message from bearland

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie072607.html

Syd 03:07 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:56 GMT would be great if they could

Makassar Alimin 03:03 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 02:58 GMT July 27, 2007

could be Oil man, the game has all been reset again for better reward..nothing has changed fundamentally

Monaco Oil man 02:58 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Last time EY did a 4 days down...Then a reversal to finish from 150 to next to 169 few days ago...

162-->179?

Sydney ACC 02:56 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
SYD, I noticed Iraq qualified for the final of the Asian Cup, hope they win, after the news yesterday. Might make some people happy.

Sydney ACC 02:40 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Total August 2007 maturities for AUD Uridashi bonds are A$1.4bn. The trend in recent months has been AUD bond issuance of only $A0.6-0.9bn per month. If this trend continues we can expect that in August 2007 that net issuance will be negative (and that the key maturity on 23 August of $A1bn won't be rolled over or matched by fresh issuance).

However, in the past when RBA rate-hike speculation has been rife - such as in February 2007 and in Q4 2006 - AUD Uridashi bond issuance has picked up considerably (to $A1.2bn - $A1.6bn). With the chance for a rate hike from the RBA in August now quite high, it is possible issuance in AUD terms will pick up.

For NZD Uridashi bonds, the total for August is very high at NZ$2.4bn. NZD Uridashi bond issuance has never been this high in any single month since October 2003.

Further, the RBNZ has signalled yesterday that rates are likely at a peak and that the level of the NZD is unsustainable. Remember that Japanese buyers of Uridashi bonds are concerned with interest rate returns and currency returns. So while it may be 'possible' that AUD Uridashi bond issuance matches AUD Uridashi bond maturities in August - it is unlikely to be the case for NZD Uridashi bonds.

Source:CBA

Syd 02:29 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Think-tank warns that Bank risks overkill in fight against inflation
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article2148249.ece

Syd 02:24 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
There's some chatter circulating Australian markets that PM John Howard plans to call election this weekend, setting date of Sept. 1 for poll, says Stephen Koukoulas, global strategist at TD Securities. Talk centers on idea election would head off expected August RBA rate hike, since no policy changes are likely while Federal government in caretaker mode. Koukoulas says poor government polling suggests early election idea is highly unlikely. But if for some reason Howard does bring election ahead of expected November/December time line, move could amount to attack on RBA independence, market confidence could be destabilized

Makassar Alimin 02:11 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy bounced well from low 118 :) the housewives must be surprised when they woke up thinking it is a nice bargain...

HK [email protected] 01:57 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
........................."The dice are cast" ..................
I base it on Tech. only.....
An important mile stone was passed (the breach of 118.50 )and I bet soon for 117 at least for USD/YEN.
The rebound from the line on the daily chart, connecting few minima,was nice for taking a counter position against the trend, but not healthy to remain USD long for long.

dc CB 01:55 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
"no reason to get excited the thief he kindly spoke
there are many here among us who think that like is but a joke"

What A day nite all.

london cg 01:36 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
ag, maybe you short usdjpy in 118.02? i am pretty sure

HK [email protected] 01:23 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   

UK Alex 23:02 GMT July 26, 2007

During a recent trip to Beijing, US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Alphonso Jackson tried to sell China on the idea of buying more MBS. Investing in MBS
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

The YUMMMMMMY Beijin Chinese duck has been fattened it is time to slaughter it.

Wellington, N.Z. 01:22 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for FRIDAY - JULY 27th:

My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

dc CB 01:13 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
a 100 pip run on the usd/yen will provide some mighty nice shoes.
When US stox tank, yield is sought to comfort the loss. Fire sale AUS, NZD, possibly CAD?

TORONTO Ag 01:00 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Better to post nothing than your own stream of irrelevant, paranoid ramblings, wouldn't you say?

Hong Kong Qindex 00:59 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Daily Forecast

london cg 00:59 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
buy the dollar against the yen, Japan needs a weak yen against dollar. US needs a stronger dollar againt yen: dont forget big part of inflation in US last month came from auto imports from Japan

Hong Kong Qindex 00:57 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY

dc CB 00:56 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Toronto Ag 00:51 GMT July 27, 2007
dc CB 00:39 GMT July 27, 2007

Excuse me. and what have you posted today that is worthwhile?

Bon Air VA Dennis 00:54 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Toronto Ag 00:51 GMT

Not to be obnoxious but lately we seem to have more post on gold, oil, index futures and .... than serious fx posts so ....

Hong Kong Qindex 00:51 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Daily Forecast

Toronto Ag 00:51 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:39 GMT July 27, 2007

This is a forum for the discussion of foreign exchange. If your interests are in other markets perhaps you could find a more suitable audience for your rantings elsewhere.

dc CB 00:39 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
so up on the day CROX +16.6%;...newfangled shoe maker.
and DECK Deckers Outdoor, trek sandals and Uggs.

So you can walk to work and back to the appartment you are now renting. LOL

Philadelphia Caba 00:30 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
it's going to be interesting to watch tomorrow close, esp. yen pairs and aussie. good nite!

hk ab 00:25 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
maybe a run to 684 again....

hk ab 00:22 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
RF//look at the gold LOL.

Wellington, N.Z. 00:00 GMT July 27, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for FRIDAY - JULY 27th:


My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

 




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The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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