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Forex Forum Archive for 07/29/2007

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Syd 23:58 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
JPY Net Short Positions Fall On Risk Reduction
IMM commitment of traders report shows net JPY short non-commercial positions vs USD fell to 92,415 contracts in week to July 24 vs 126,773 contracts a week earlier, as worries over U.S. subprime woes spur players to reduce riskier positions.

Philadelphia Caba 23:55 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Manchester st 23:39
Martin, I don't think you have much more clue in what carry can and will do next ... sorry, no offence to you! gt/gl!

hk ab 23:55 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
a/j may need a 10 big fig. dive before some signs of temp. reversal.

UK Alex 23:53 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 23:46 GMT July 29, 2007
There are far too many people coming into the country to provide cheap labour for the purpose of driving wages down and boosting corporate profits. That is the real cause of the housing shortage.

Mtl JP 23:46 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Alex 23:18 / BoE is behind the inflationary expectations ball, they know it, market knows it and market knows that BoE knows that they know that market knows.

Is this socialist government idiocy still alive and well ?

Desperate to get on that ladder? Believe it or not, you could now - Guardian

"...First-time buyers in London and the south-east could be eligible for an interest-free loan with no catches... .. ...not a gift. When you come to sell your home, you will have to pay it back. The amount you pay back stays at 17.5%, so you will have to hand over 17.5% of the market value of your property at the time of the sale. In other words, buyers are signing away a share of any future "profit".

Here is a subtle reference to the (non) succes of Alphonso begging/pestering the Chinese to buy some of the toxic US paper:

After the ball, the clean-up should begin - Guardian

The hangover has kicked in - and here come the Chinese with the bill

hk revdax 23:43 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:27 GMT //Then what it is? A collapse?

Manchester st 23:39 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 23:29 GMT July 29, 2007
Caba..you are reading it wrong..from my understanding of it, carry is a work in progress for the rest of the year with 156 still to come...16685 was the level when the post was made ( subsequentrly it went to 169 before it retraced) ..but been 2 big figures out while standing to gain 13 big figures is a good R/R ...the post was a good direction indicator as well. Anyhow...back to trading...

UK Alex 23:30 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 22:34 GMT July 29, 2007
Consumer spending accounts for just 56% of Japan's GDP, so you can expect exporters to get a helping hand should things turn nasty.

Philadelphia Caba 23:29 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Manchester st 23:21
well..we've seen 169 not 156..

Mtl JP 23:27 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
revdax 23:25 / winttingly or not, that is one of your all time top two questions.

Syd 23:27 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 23:25 GMT no correction

Syd 23:26 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Kirby DaleyStrategist | Fimat sees dlr/yen 105 by xmas

hk revdax 23:25 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:20 GMT //What is the difference between a market correction and a market collapse?

Syd 23:23 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:18 GMT not at all , but generally the Central Banks ignore the media etc anyway going their own way.

Manchester st 23:21 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
FWIW.. Found this in the Archives...
Gold Coast Martin 01:05 GMT June 28, 2007
Sofia Kaprikorn 00:49 GMT June 28, 2007
The "carry trade cycles"identification, is a complex one as it is purely dictated by the "carry trade issuers" from japan. To put it simply, a way to identify that we are moving from the 'selective stage"to the "secondary"stage is when you see what we see now....dips been bought after the upsurges..when these retracements get shalower and shallower it confrims that we are moving to the secondary stage which produces no significant dips and a trend reversal commences.after that it is a straight line ..to put this into numbers....166-16385 is the selective stage.....16385-16108 is secondary...under 16108 all there is 156..trading in between these levels while positioned for the "big drop "at the same time is best way to tackle right now...so with current scenario, i prefer to sell from the highs rather than buy from the lows, as R/R is better been positioned to the long term downside than to the upside..the g.t,,,,

UK Alex 23:18 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:14 GMT July 29, 2007
Can we trust them - the last thing they want is for the BOE to hike again.

dc CB 23:14 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Lastly, as we enter August, I would think that a lot of people just want to square up and get out, whether they be long or short, and then pick it up again after Labor Day.
So much for Psyc 101.

Syd 23:14 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
U.K. annual house price growth slowed for the third straight month in July, with prices posting their weakest monthly gain since January, as higher interest rates weighed on the once-buoyant property market, Hometrack said Monday.

The property valuation company said the average U.K. house price rose 0.1% on the month in July, after increasing 0.3% in June. The annual rise in prices eased back to 5.9% from 6.4% in June.

"The latest survey results highlight the continuing turnaround in the underlying dynamics of the housing market that we first reported back in May," said Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research.

UK Alex 23:14 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
FT's Robin Harding makes two good points:

High prices relative to rents make housing less attractive to landlords. “Nominal housing yields are now lower than bond yields in the UK,” said Brian Coulton, head of global economics and Europe in Fitch’s sovereign debt team.

House prices are the best value in Japan, Germany and the Netherlands. In Japan they are more than 10 per cent below their long-run trend when compared with incomes.

UK Alex 23:11 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
From the WSJ:

The California State Teachers' Retirement System says it has been concerned about a stock-market pullback for weeks. Since last month, the $171 billion pension fund has been reducing its stockholdings, while putting that money into debt from low-risk issuers like mortgage giant Ginnie Mae.

Despite the cheaper stock prices following the week's selloff, the pension fund is still hesitant to add to its stock positions. "We're stepping back to take a breather," says Michelle Cunningham, the fund's director of fixed income.

Ldn 23:10 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Tougher lending terms for hedge funds
By Anuj Gangahar in New York
Last updated: July 29 2007 18:08

Investment banks are responding to rising credit concerns by imposing tougher lending terms on hedge funds, in a move that threatens to exacerbate investor unease in the financial markets.

Prime brokerage departments at several investment banks have raised their margin requirements for certain hedge fund clients as they seek to insure themselves against the possibility of new hedge fund collapses as a result of the recent market turmoil.LINK

dc CB 23:07 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
fwiw: What may effect trade this week.
Today is End of Month minus 1. If US stocks follow the Bull script and fund managers want to be seen owing stocks going in to the turn (with bargans galore), then there will be initial weakness thru the day and then a rally that will continue into Near the close on tuesday. The effect would be a return to carry, with a rally in USD/JPY.
The next challenge to stox should be the Friday Unemployment report. Any hint by the Fed that it will back off its Watch on Inflation Stance would help to spark a short covering bounce/rally. Bears in stox have been consistantly burned, though this time it may be different.

I will be an interesting week either way. But can mere humans out-trade the computers that seem to be running the show.

Ldn 23:04 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Denmark, UK vulnerable to house prices fall
Denmark, Britain and New Zealand are the economies most vulnerable to a fall in house prices, says a report released on Monday by Fitch Ratings. LINK

Wellington, N.Z. 22:56 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   

Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JULY 30th:


My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Toronto MRC 22:40 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 22:37 GMT July 29, 2007

Totally agree. Japan next hot equity market.

Lahore FM 22:37 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:30 GMT July 29, 2007
Lahore FM 22:24 GMT July 29, 2007
long gbpjpy 238.40,stops at 237.60.
---------
closed half at 239.42 for 102 pips.stops at entry for remainder.

--------
went right down to entry at 238.40 and stopped the half long for 102 pips cumulative gain.

UK Alex 22:37 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Doesn't help when the Nikkei runs a story which says hot money is about to start pouring into Japan.

Toronto MRC 22:34 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 22:31 GMT July 29, 2007

you think boj?

UK Alex 22:33 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Sometimes the telephone is a better method of communication to chart reading.

Syd 22:33 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
JPY May Fall But Carry Trade Still Unwinding

Uncertainty over Japan's political situation following ruling LDP's defeat in upper house but majority in lower chamber - and whether or not BoJ will hike rates in August - may see some JPY weakness early this week, says nabCapital Head of Currency Strategy John Kyriakopoulos. Adds carry trade unwinding of recent sessions will continue to be the main driver of currency markets this week.

Lahore FM 22:31 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy is good for 6 minute trades!

UK Alex 22:31 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
118 is the magic number.

Toronto MRC 22:30 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
feels like the big boys are lending a hand to keep this orderly. imho

Lahore FM 22:30 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:24 GMT July 29, 2007
long gbpjpy 238.40,stops at 237.60.
---------
closed half at 239.42 for 102 pips.stops at entry for remainder.

Syd 22:27 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Australian government bonds up in offshore trading, tracking U.S. Treasurys on safe haven flows; 3-year bond futures up 5 bps to 93.70 and 10-year futures up 1 bps to 94.045. Market now to focus on whether RBA moves to hike rates next week, say nabCapital strategists, who point to flow of domestic data in lead-up to RBA board meeting as a key factor to influence RBA. RBC strategists point to David Bassanese article in weekend Australian Financial Review saying August rate hike from 6.25% not a certainty given potential for further global financial markets fallout on U.S. housing sector.

Lahore FM 22:24 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
long gbpjpy 238.40,stops at 237.60.

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:05 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Hello all,
I met an adult japanese man and while chatting I asked him about fx - he told me it was very popular for Japanese people to go to banks to deposit funds - as I understand it they just make deposits with high yield - - and actually banks structure these deposits into AUD and NZD longs - so I figure common people actually just use bank products but not in reality open FX account and buy AUD & NZD..

Toronto MRC 21:48 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
long gbpusd 2.0210, long usdjpy 118.27 still long gold from friday 661.25. gl gt

Mtl JP 21:44 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
right, a disturbed view.. compliments CNN.

Syd 21:42 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Flood homes: prices could fall 80%
THOUSANDS of people hit by the recent floods could see the value of their homes slump by 80% because their insurers may refuse to cover them for future claims.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/money/insurance/article2158087.ece

Syd 21:32 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 21:26 not getting into it with you I have my view

Mtl JP 21:26 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Syd / get over it, it's a CNN report. What do yu think of CNN as: gullible, naive or worried or some subtle agenda ?
China Quick to Execute Drug Official

BEIJING, July 10 — China executed its former top food and drug regulator on Tuesday for taking bribes to approve untested medicine, as the Beijing leadership scrambled to show that it was serious about improving the safety of Chinese products.

The Beijing No. 1 Intermediate People’s Court carried out the death sentence against Zheng Xiaoyu, 62, the former head of the State Food and Drug Administration, shortly after the country’s Supreme Court rejected his final appeal.

How is that for "action" ?

Lahore FM 21:21 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:09 GMT July 27, 2007
2nd long audusd 0.8535,rigid stops at 0.8500.
-----------
stopped for minus 35.

gbpusd long from 2.0270 stopped at 30 rather than 40 for the gap for minus 40.

Syd 21:20 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Why has the Dollar Strengthened as the Stock Market Falls?
Reports of more subprime related losses have sent the markets tumbling once again. The stock market is down another 100 points, putting this week’s losses in the Dow close to 500 points. Carry trades and other high yielding currencies have followed suit as more victims of the subprime fallout surface. Domestically, Sowood Capital Management, a hedge fund founded by a former Harvard Management executive suffered bond losses in excess of 10%. A Citigroup analyst also released estimates of the potential losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose bond holdings are estimated to have dropped by $4.7 billion. Internationally, Australian hedge fund Absolute Capital group suspended withdrawals from two of its funds as a direct result of subprime contagion. The problems have now gone global which means that the age of easy money is over. Investors and lenders in general will be far more careful about who and what they are willing to fund. Even if the markets do rebound, sentiment has shifted so dramatically that we probably won’t see 14,000 in the Dow or fresh highs in carry trades again this year. The most common question that we are being asked right now is why is the dollar rallying? The answer is because now that the global liquidation has deepened, investors are steered back into the US dollar because of its safe haven status. Many US investors have exposure abroad and when they cut their risky trades, they are also repatriating their funds back into US dollars
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Why_has_the_Dollar_Strengthen_1185568953128.html

Syd 21:10 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   

Interest articles here , I was watching this on CNN yesterday found it quite disturbing ...
Avoiding Chinese food products nearly impossible
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2007/news/made.in.china/index.html

Wellington, N.Z. 20:29 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JULY 30th:

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Sydney ACC 20:22 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
THE Australian sharemarket is expected to come under further pressure this morning after global equity markets were jolted by another sharp sell-off on Friday night on fears of a worsening crisis in the US mortgage market.

After suffering its worst one day points fall since the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Centre on Friday, the ASX 200 index is expected to receive little reprieve from investors this morning.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/stand-by-for-another-rough-ride/2007/07/29/1185647742228.html

PAR 18:53 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Japanese Abe seems not to understand that it is the economy stupid. After a crashing defeat he is not willing to stand down . Too low interest rates and too high taxes loose elections since Roman times but Abe is just too stupid to understand .

Philadelphia Caba 17:08 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Did anyone hear from Dallas GEP lately? Long time no see him here, hope he's fine.

houston st 15:16 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   

JAY -- look for my email...lg/gt.

GVI Jay 13:44 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
For anyone consumer savvy, check my post on the Help Forum - could use some help

Hong Kong Qindex 13:29 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
The followings have been post in GV Forex Blog 

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 11:40:51 GMT
USD/CHF : Daily Forecast


QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 11:15:23 GMT
GBP/USD : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 10:56:02 GMT
EUR/USD : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 09:43:29 GMT
AUD/USD : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 08:37:07 GMT
USD/CAD : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 02:43:16 GMT
Crude Oil : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 02:06:58 GMT
Gold : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Saturday July 28, 2007 - 17:21:07 GMT
USD/JPY : Daily Forecast

Monaco Oil man 12:49 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 12:28 GMT July 29, 2007
Daily close under 659 calls for 638.
Right now weekly model still long 620 , need a bit more downside before i get an algo short.
Daily still long albeit looks ready to turn around as the entries aren't too far 638--657.
Indicator wise, Daily already crossing on custom DMI , showing a period of weakness coming in ...Weekly we are about to cross so gold might start moving to the downside..

If i had to do anything on this one , it's probably BUY on dips (630-640) still as i still don't have short signals (though this could change pretty fast this week)..

A change in weekly gold trend, would have implications on majors ..Though I now fathom we have a period of range on the majors (Rising enthusiasm on both sides) with a slight bearish bias (1.3250-1.38 e$) , particularly till EY finds a bottom (Which i don't think is too far , largest period of YEN upside vs the Euro has been 3 weeks in last 3 years , first week big, 2nd much smaller but volatile, 3rd flat , then major upside reversal).

A good month of range , and downside in gold and majors while Euro probably tries to hit 1.3250 (just one support before at 1.3566) , before new take off in mid september.


GT.


hong kong seek 12:28 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 11:07 GMT July 29, 2007
謝謝你, 金怎看?

Mtl JP 11:14 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Syd 11:02 / It would appear Rato has no understanding of China.

- China is a supply-driven economy.
- China, despite huff n puff of various political suits, does not have developped lines of communication (edicts have a tuff time to make it down to those at whom they are aimed) nor an effective legal, judicail and enforcement system)
- Local Chinese leaders and buziness managers are s/t, here and now, profit-motivated. Nepotism reigns still.
- Does Rato KNOW what proportion of Chinese savings are in bank accounts at below inflation rate ?
- Does Rato KNOW what proportion of Chinese savings are marketfunds ?

Monaco Oil man 11:07 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 16:46 GMT July 27, 2007

Thanks.

Syd 11:02 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
IMF Rato: China Should Let Mkt Forces Determine Exchange Rate

Economic Overheating Clear Risk For China
China should allow market forces to determine the exchange rate of its currency, the yuan, which would give China greater scope to use interest rates to cool its economy, International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo de Rato said Saturday.

Overheating is a "clear risk" for China's economy and inflation is a serious concern for policymakers, Rato told a press conference.

Monetary policy should focus on price stability rather than the exchange rate, he said.

HK [email protected] 05:14 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
........................Weekend hallucinations!!!..........................


My target for euro is still about 1.5641 as I suggested years ago(HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT April 17, 2004) but the way I see things now, an additional retracement to the neckline of the 8 years old cup and handle formation is becoming a possibility..

And will be more of a possibility if Euro will sink under it's
200-daily-Sma.

I am talking about a possibility that Euro is targeting a price around 1.14, where it MAY find peace and stability before another surge.

8 years cup and handle formation should be taken seriously,

I just can imagine the face of the Iranian holding those petro-euro when things will come true.
Interesting to see how gold will react to that move if happens.

But the main beneficiary will be the USD, defying another attempt to dislodge it from being the currency of choice.

Mumbai Deepak 04:55 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves. But, unlike the Lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. ---

Warren Buffett

Wellington, N.Z. 04:45 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JULY 30th:

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Alaska Moon 04:30 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
LAGOS CITY island 04:12 GMT July 29, 2007
=========
There is a lot of learning material on this site...Check out the top red bar, click on learning, and also links along the left side...
Moon

LAGOS CITY island 04:12 GMT July 29, 2007 Reply   
i will like to no more about forex trade

 




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