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Forex Forum Archive for 07/30/2007

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Syd 23:56 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
FX NOW! NZD/USD, AUD/NZD flows - real money selling into month-end

Syd 23:55 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC are there some AUD redemption due this month if I recall you mentioned ?

Syd 23:49 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Markets seem to be raising their bets Paulson will convince China policymakers to allow faster CNY rise, says Brown Brothers Harriman; "newswires are running stories of funds buying yuan forward contracts on the belief Paulson will get some tangible results on the exchange rate front and forwards are now pricing in 5.9 per cent appreciation versus the dollar over the next 12 months vs 4.5 per cent as recently as two weeks ago." With China economy strong, further tightening measures expected, "we too think faster appreciation will be tolerated." CNY has gained 0.6% so far in 3Q which implies full quarter pace close to 2% vs 1.5% in 2Q, 1% in 1Q; it expects 7-8% rise next 12 months

Syd 23:31 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Japan's Jun Jobless Rate 3.7%; Market Expected 3.8%

Wellington, N.Z. 23:20 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for TUESDAY - JULY 31st:


To request a Trial of my FX Service

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Max McKegg/TRL

dc CB 23:12 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
The day is now End of Month, so far the script has been followed.

dc CB 23:07 GMT July 29, 2007
fwiw: What may effect trade this week.
Today is End of Month minus 1. If US stocks follow the Bull script and fund managers want to be seen owing stocks going into the turn (with bargans galore), then there will be initial weakness thru the day and then a rally that will continue into Near the close on tuesday. The effect would be a return to carry, with a rally in USD/JPY.

hk revdax 23:05 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Syd 20:22 GMT//One Yuan should be equivalent to one Canadian $.

Gen dk 23:01 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:52 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Moody's Cuts The City Of Menasha's (WI) Underlying GO Rtg To A3 And Removed The Outlook-Neg From A2, Affecting $25 Million Of Outstanding Debt

Syd 22:44 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
WSJ: Sowood Reports Loss Of Over 50% This Month To Investors Losses Drop Sowood's Assets To About $1.5 Billion

Syd 22:33 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Japan June all household spending likely +0.7% on-year in real terms vs +0.4% in May, shows Dow Jones/Nikkei poll of economists; would mark 6th straight month of growth. Barclays Capital chief Japan economist Takuji Aida expects "firm sales nationwide due in part to favorable weather during that month"; should be positive calendar effect, given higher number of Saturdays in June. Data due at 2330 GMTJapan jobless rate tipped at 3.8% in June, same as May, say economists surveyed by Dow Jones/Nikkei; "the pace of economic growth appears to have slowed in the second quarter but employment will likely continue to grow at a decent pace" as baby-boomers continue to retire, says Barclays Capital chief Japan economist Takuji Aida. Data due at 2330 GMT

nz chico 22:30 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Hey, is there anyone who can tell me whereabouts i can find a live economic data feed? thx

Gen dk 22:27 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:08 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Absolute Capital Expects Other Fund Firms To Suffer - Report


SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The general manager of Australia's Absolute Capital's suspended investment funds said there are likely to be managers of other fund firms who aren't admitting to losses from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the Australian newspaper reported Tuesday.

Deon Joubert, who runs the Sydney-based hedge fund, said investors should expect funds that rely on the same kind of debt securities to report poor results in coming weeks, when they are forced to price their investments at the end of this month.

"We haven't seen the big players put out their July numbers," Joubert said, according to the newspaper. "All I can say is you should watch this space".

Earlier this month, Absolute Capital said it would voluntarily freeze redemptions from two of its funds after warning of looses of up to 6% this month.


Newspaper Web site: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au


Syd 22:07 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
The general manager of Australia's Absolute Capital's suspended investment funds said there are likely to be managers of other fund firms who aren't admitting to losses from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, the Australian newspaper reported Tuesday.

Deon Joubert, who runs the Sydney-based hedge fund, said investors should expect funds that rely on the same kind of debt securities to report poor results in coming weeks, when they are forced to price their investments at the end of this month.

"We haven't seen the big players put out their July numbers," Joubert said, according to the newspaper. "All I can say is you should watch this space".

Earlier this month, Absolute Capital said it would voluntarily freeze redemptions from two of its funds after warning of looses of up to 6% this month.


Newspaper Web site: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au

Syd 21:51 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Stephen Koukoulas, chief Asia-Pacific strategist at TD Securities, said.
Koukoulas said as much as 7 billion New Zealand dollars, or $5.2 billion, in Uridashi securities will mature in the next six months, with August and October standing out with the largest amounts of 2.4 billion dollars and 2.2 billion dollars, respectively. More than 10 billion dollars are due to be redeemed this year, a report released in November by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand said
"The New Zealand dollar will have some pressure as funds flow out," unless the money from the maturing bonds is reinvested, Koukoulas said.

Syd 21:42 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
UK housing market 'overvalued by 20%'
http://money.guardian.co.uk/houseprices/story/0,,2137908,00.html

House prices in the UK are more than 20% higher than they should be, making the country's housing market the third most overvalued among the world's major economies, a rating agency said today.
Strong growth in prices over the past decade have seen the market run away from household incomes so that homeowners are now vulnerable to shocks such as rising interest rates and job losses, the Fitch agency said.
With more than 50% of current mortgages being taken out on a fixed-rate basis, an increasing number of borrowers are ensuring they are protected against further rate rises.

This will limit the number of people forced to sell up because they are unable to maintain mortgage repayments.



London 21:39 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Corporate Bond Risk Soars as Subprime Mortgage Losses Spread

By Shannon D. Harrington and Hamish Risk

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- The risk of owning corporate bonds rose to the highest in at least three years after a German bank slashed its profit forecast because of ``massive uncertainty'' in the market for subprime mortgages and credit.
``It's fear of the unknown, fear of hedge funds unwinding, fear of knock-on effects of the subprime meltdown.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4oGIr3UgoZE&refer=home

London 21:36 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Goldman, JPMorgan Saddled With Debt They Can't Sell
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the rest of Wall Street are stuck with at least $11 billion of loans and bonds they can't readily sell.
Goldman, JPMorgan Stuck With Debt They Can't Sell to Investors

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aserXf4f8u2M&refer=uk


dc CB 20:56 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
the drums worked, sort-of.

July 30 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rebounded from the worst two-day skid since 2003 after Wall Street's biggest securities firms, led by Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp., said the sell-off made banks, homebuilders and retailers relative bargains.

Syd 20:28 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Paulson Yuan Gain Foreseen by Pictet, Western Asset http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aYFOQ9RC4Dxc&refer=exclusive

Lahore FM 20:24 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
long gold 665.40,stopless.

Lahore FM 20:22 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
squared 666.60 gold short 1/2 at spot.had closed half at 660.00.

Syd 20:22 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Paulson says China needs broader reforms 30 Jul 2007 18:55 GMT
... Currency policy is just one part of broader ... should move more," Mr Paulson said. The renminbi has appreciated by about 9.4 per cent yuan ...
According to some calculations, the yuan should be revalued 40% higher

Lahore FM 20:06 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
looks like party* time for carry re-wind.

Lahore FM 20:06 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
looks like part time for carry re-wind.

Lahore FM 19:54 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:42 GMT July 30, 2007
sold eurusd 1.3686,mind stops around 3730.
--
closed 1.3692 for minus 6.will see about it later.

Ldn 19:53 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
HSBC hurt by US subprime exposure
July 30 2007 10:37

Half-year profits at HSBC were hit by the bank’s exposure to the US subprime mortgage market and a $236m (£116.5m) charge for fee refunds in its UK retail banking operations. The loan impairment charge jumped 63 per cent, or $2.46bn, to $6.35bn in the half-year to the end of June. That followed a sharp rise in the charge in the second half of 2006, which in February forced HSBC to issue a profits warning. This was one of the first signs of problems in the US subprime market.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/33ce37aa-3e7d-11dc-bfcf-0000779fd2ac.html

Cbj Jake 19:48 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Remember,a few yrs back, Cramer kicking off a contributer for getting excited about gold. Ha! You didn't mention gold in those days. In trading,as in the Tao, nothing is sacred.

Ldn 19:47 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Subprime woes hit global credit markets


The worsening mood, which pushed prices of credit insurance into record territory, was exacerbated after it emerged that some European institutions had also suffered unexpected losses as a result of the woes in the US subprime mortgage market. On Monday saw further signs of the subprime woes crossing the Atlantic when IKB, a specialised lender to smaller companies, and Commerzbank, the country’s second-biggest bank, both warned they would be hit by losses from risky property loans.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/041c1122-3ed1-11dc-bfcf-0000779fd2ac.html

dc CB 19:42 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
TheStreet.com TV Recap: Bye-Bye Bonuses on Wall Street

By TheStreet.com Staff
7/30/2007 3:23 PM EDT

The collapse of the mortgage market has been a Main Street issue for the last six months, but after last week, it has now become a Wall Street issue, Jim Cramer said on TheStreet.com TV's Wall Street Confidential Web video Monday.

"Obviously, these were all repossessed over the weekend," Cramer said, waiving his hand towards the BMW and Ducati cars parked behind him by the New York Stock Exchange. "These are largely Wall Street cars," he said. "They'd probably cost you $75,000, and they could get $50,000 on a repossession. We're speaking in terms of how everyone is so negative."

"The bonus pool is completely in doubt now," Cramer continued. "If you had done something really great in mortgages, I think now you're going to get laid off. The table of employment in mortgages and private equity is just way too high."

As someone who's in touch with the real estate markets and also a lot of analysts, Cramer said that he believes the takeaway from most Wall Streeters is "don't buy your summer home in the Hamptons until January or February."

"I genuinely believe the bonuses are going to be very much in question here," he said.

Cramer said that people have to recognize that the divisions that had been boosted, where the hiring was taking place -- even as late as the end of 2006 and early 2007 -- were private equity and mortgages.

"I predict that those divisions will be downsized dramatically," he said. "They've been the big driver of earnings, which is why I've been saying the earnings are going to come down for the major brokers, which is why they're not that cheap."

Also, he said, "there will be a lot of layoffs, which we have not seen since 1994."

Syd 19:42 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD rebounds from 3-days of sharp selling in a volatile offshore session, opening higher as USD broadly lower in overnight trade amid slight easing of risk-aversion; last 0.7666 vs 0.7610 at yesterday's NZ close, but well under 0.8000 levels traded mid last week. Pair dropped to fresh 7-week low of 0.7553 in offshore trade on hedge fund selling, but climbed back up in tandem with gains in Wall Street, says Danica Hampton, FX strategist at Bank of NZ. But thinks it's too soon to get bullish on Kiwi. "After all, concerns about global credit markets are still prevalent, risk aversion and currency volatility is still high." Expects carry trade unwinding has "a little further to run this week."

Lahore FM 19:29 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul,2.0320/50 is a likely taget.

Syd 19:28 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Home sales slump in June
A FALL in monthly new home sales shows the housing affordability crisis is worsening, an industry group says.

New home sales slipped by 0.8 per cent to 8,321 dwellings in June, a Housing Industry Association (HIA) survey of 100 major residential builders and developers found
The HIA said new home sales have now fallen for the past five years, despite strong population growth.

HIA chief economist Harley Dale said record low housing affordability was hurting the building industry.

"New home sales ... shows a considerable weakening in conditions over 2006/07,'' Mr Dale said.

"This update is a telling indictment of the impact record low housing affordability is having on the home building industry.

bbsapul 19:22 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm:

whats your target on gbp/usd?
open too?

Lahore FM 19:08 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
long gbpusd 2.0235,stopless.

Lahore FM 18:58 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
welcome Bay,

long gbpchf 2.4350,stops at 2.4300.target open.

USA BAY 18:48 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM,

Thanks for taking the time to analyse those pairs. Appreciate it. Thanks sgain

Lahore FM 18:46 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:19 GMT July 23, 2007
long eurgbp 0.6709,stops 0.6670.target 0.6800.
---------
closed half at 0.6763 for 52 pips.carrying remainder stopless.

Lahore FM 18:44 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Bay dip to 1.7700/50 can be bought for 1.8200.

Lahore FM 18:42 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
sold eurusd 1.3686,mind stops around 3730.

Lahore FM 18:40 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Bay gbpjpy 239.00/20 key support for some time.let us say this week.if a second test holds we can rise to 244.80.will look into eurnzd shortly.

HK Kevin 18:09 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:09 GMT, too soon to make a conclusion. A 3-month healthy correction on carry-trades is not bad for further rise at Q4 of the year.
I think most of the traders including me were busy in calcuating the Fib levels in USD/YEN and YEN crosses for fresh selling.

Gen dk 18:09 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 18:09 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:09 GMT, too soon to make a conclusion. A 3-month healthy correction on carry-trades is not bad for further rise at Q4 of the year.
I think most of the traders including e was busy in calcuating the Fib levels in USD/YEN and YEN crosses for fresh selling.

USA BAY 18:05 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

Can you kindly comment on eur/nzd and gbp/jpy pls. tia

Stockholm za 17:54 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   

Neoclassical economics does not offer a useful model of finance, because economic and financial behavior have different motivational dynamics. The law of supply and demandoperates among rational valuers to produce equilibrium in the marketplace for utilitarian goods and services. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is a related model applied to financial markets. The socionomic theory of finance (STF) posits that contextual differences between economics and finance produce different behavior, so that in finance the law of supply and demand is irrelevant, and EMH is inappropriate. In finance, uncertainty about valuations by other homogeneous agents induces unconscious, non-rational herding, which follows endogenously regulated fluctuations in social mood, which in turn determine financial fluctuations. This dynamic produces non-mean-reverting dynamism in financial markets, not equilibrium - Parker & Prechter

Makassar Alimin 17:17 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:09 GMT July 30, 2007

that is quite a reassurance :) 125 usdjpy still on?

dc CB 17:10 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
some curtains for your window sir?

12:40 MS Morgan Stanley credit rating raised to AA-/A-1+ by Moody's- Bloomberg

PAR 17:09 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Carry trades are completely back. Borrow yen and use the proceeds to buy Us stocks . As long as Abe is in charge no returns can be obtained in Japan .

Lahore FM 17:09 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:14 GMT July 27, 2007
longed nzdusd 0.7712,tentative stops at 0.7660.
---

closed at 0.7645 for a loss of 67 pips.

London NYAM 17:03 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
CB// Nice touch. Interesting that the warriers wore Bear skins.
I suppose I have a problem equating the market with God (im not religious but it seems like market liberalism gone nutter).

Halifax CB 16:59 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:16 GMT July 30, 2007
More like a rambunctious leveler than an omniscient reveler.
Brings to mind one of my favourite historical people, the Berserkers, or Bakunin's (IIRC) comments about creative destruction...

Hong Kong Qindex 16:30 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.3714. As shown in the monthly cycle frequency chart it is easier for the market to move one step backward to 1.3487 than move one step forward to 1.3940. The current expected trading ranges from the monthly cycle projected series are 1.3487* - 1.3544 - 1.3600 - 1.3657 - 1.3714* .

Hong Kong Qindex 16:14 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is trying to tackle the lower barrier at 1.1945 // 1.2008*.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:10 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 2.0377. The current expected trading range is 2.0032 - 2.0377. If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 2.0032, the next target is 1.9688.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:07 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY :As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is trapped in the extreme levels of 117.45 - 119.24.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:04 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is going to tackle the upper barrier at 1.0703* // 1.0758.

dc CB 16:00 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
quit tryin' ta confuse me dammit!

U.S. Stocks Drop on Lending Concern

Como Perrie 15:54 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
off eurusd minor longs and nite

Hong Kong Qindex 15:54 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD :  : The market is not able to stabilize around the monthly cycle projected chart point at 0.8534*. The next major downside targeting point is 0.8390*. The mid-point reference between 0.8390 and 0.8534 is 0.8462.

dc CB 15:24 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
cue the tomtoms.

U.S., European Stocks Rebound on Earnings

London NYAM 15:16 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 15:06 GMT July 30, 2007
" Yet, the market is God. It has its own timing. It can do anything and it will do anything."
Not really the self-aware God that we're used to then? More like a rambunctious leveler than an omniscient reveler.

Brisbane Flip 15:15 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Revdax Junior isn't running again. He did learn the lessons of father and was pumping well before the 2004 election mate. That's why we'll see the fallout for his liquidity addiction in the run up to the '08 elections.
A souffle doesn't rise twice -LOL

hk revdax 15:06 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 14:44//Bush the senior did not pump enough to satisfy the impatient US unemployed, and that was why he lost that election to Playboy Cigar-playing Clinton. Clinton came along and enjoyed the economic prosperity which had been put into place by the Republicans but the result surfaced with a lamenting time lag. Nasdaq shot up wildly due to the ample amount of credit available....and then collapsed. When it collapsed(or went through a correction), the US Clinton administration, through an indiscriminating printing of an internationally accepted currency, managed to bail out millions of US pensions. But the excess of money supply over its aging economic productivity, in the form of rampant inflation expressed in the asset/housing sectors, has been unkindly transferred to the rest of the world and in particular the world's asset NON-holding poor people.

Bush the junior is not going to repeat the experience of his father. He would start pumping much more early than what the quantitative econometric models suggest, with the view to fix up the mess only after the election. Yet, the market is God. It has its own timing. It can do anything and it will do anything.

HK Kevin 14:58 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Short USD/CAD at 1.0682 earlier, stop above today's high, 1st t/p around 1.0605, then 1.0550.

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:44 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:33 GMT

I believe you are absolutely correct in that!

hk revdax 14:33 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 14:21 //if i had to make a wild guess, i would say that the full team of pipers will come up for payment after the 2008 US election...

Lahore FM 14:33 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
**

Lahore FM 14:32 GMT July 30, 2007
closed**long from 1.3642 in full at 1.3688.

Lahore FM 14:32 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
long from 1.3642 in full at 1.3688.

Mtl JP 14:31 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
revdax 14:17 / yes, I can. 40% decline sounds entirely plausible.

melbourne DC 14:28 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
putting a stop is probably not the way to play it :)))

melbourne DC 14:27 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:15 GMT July 30, 2007
you certainly have done better than a trader i know ... in audusd today, he went in longs 3 times (those i know ) with 25 pips stops, and all 3 times he got stopped out ... and ... the price now is actually near the day;s high :)))

melbourne DC 14:24 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:15 GMT July 30, 2007
:)) u certainly have played this mkt well .. i m learning that actually inthese mkt where everyone is nervous, if u r quite confident there is no stale posn to unload. its worth the risk to play it. it just swing around so much :))


sydney acc
fwi ... the audusd earlier when breached 0.8470, audjpy did not breach 100.00 .

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:21 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:17 GMT

And the real old timers remember Revenue Properties (TSE symbol - RPC also traded on the Amex) mid $40's to zero in a matter of months.

Gen dk 14:19 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 14:18 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:14 GMT, no more Harry Potter. I think USD bulls not willing to buy more USD at these levels and vice versa after the violated movement late last week.

hk revdax 14:17 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:39 //The old timer stock players can still remember the glorious days of Dome Petroleum coming down from about Can$60 to a few cents.

Can you imagine that the flying high house prices can also fly down?

HK Kevin 14:15 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 13:54 GMT, thanks. I have done several fast 2-way trades on AUD and NZD tdoay each with ~50 pips profits. Only position left now is a sell EUR at 1.3772. If USD/JPY holds 118.00, I may consider long EUR/JPY at around 161.50 tomorrow.

hk revdax 14:14 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin//Why is the mkt so quiet? Any earth shaking news coming soon?

dc CB 14:11 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
from briefing.com.......as of 10:00et

American Home Mortgare... Other high-yielding mortgage related stocks seeing weakness following AHM's delayed dividend news

With AHM indicated to open down roughly 39% (stock has not opened for regular trading yet) after the co delayed its dividend (AHM previously had a 26% div yield), we're seeing weakness in a number of other mortgage related stocks with high dividend yields: IMH -8.5% (div yield 12%), IMB -6.6% (div yield of 8% yield), OPX -5.7% (div yield of 10% yield), AFN -4.3% (div yield of 21%), CRZ -2.3% (div yield 13%), TMA -1.6% (div yield 10%), JRT -1.6% (div yield 15%), CHC -0.5% (div yield 13%).

melbourne DC 13:54 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:48 GMT July 30, 2007
$Y i just assume 118 option defence reload 119 until price action or news changes my mind. i presume the typical story for now is ppl wait for dust to settle then get back into carry .

UK Alex 13:50 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:39 GMT July 30, 2007
Well, in the U.S. it's anything related to the housing market. Just look at how many jobs are related to construction, the mortgage industry, furniture and home improvement.

Globally, the biggest risk at the moment is probably the tightening in credit markets.

melbourne DC 13:50 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 13:43 GMT July 30, 2007
no worries. the 4 hr chart since wk open tells the story ..

HK Kevin 13:48 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 13:04 GMT, a little bit surprise to see USD/JPY still hold 118.00 level. Need some cautious to sell YEN crosses, AUD and NZD at these levels after several figures.
Anyone know why EUR is holding firmly?

Sydney ACC 13:43 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 13:27 GMT July 30, 2007
I think you are right. I have been concentrating on FTSE where any stock with a metals bint is up and copper related stocks especially so. I thought maybe there might be some stock related movement, however, I reckon market's just so jumpy that none of the banks want to hold a position consequently a good sized parcel can move the market in any currency presently.

Mtl JP 13:39 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:35 / two kinds of "contagion"
1) "stuff" spreading to other sectors within an economy
2) "stuff" spreading to other national economies around the Globe.

A headline appeared a few moments ago prognosticating that "Canadian dollar weakens on fears of contagion from US subprime woes" (credit: AFX)

When market fears, reactions tend to be ferocious. That is what those of Paulson and Bernanke ilk's nightmares are made up of.

melbourne DC 13:27 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 13:12 GMT July 30, 2007
my reasons probably spurious as i wasn't closely watching this pair except to keep in my mind prior 30 pips around 85c. my guess is some made a run for 0.8570 (which held twice earlier), and the breach was not sustained.
$ also weaken vs european during the latter half hour..
if u asking for any news.factors, sry couldn;t help.
My guess is in such mkt, ppl either stay on the sidelines, or gunning for stops.
all the best .

Sydney ACC 13:12 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 13:04 GMT July 30, 2007
Do you have any reason for this move? I can't find anyone to explain this.

melbourne DC 13:04 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
for those with strong heart ..
an excellent trade (in hidnsight)
audusd breach of 0.8470 not sustained ... 50 pips in 40 minutes and still running ...
(disclaimer : i had no posn on this)

Hong Kong Qindex 13:01 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD :

Daily Directional Indicator :  1.0545* - (1.0587) - 1.0593 - 1.0594 - (1.0598) - 1.0684*

Remarks : The market is likely to trade between 1.0587 - 1.0684 initially during early period of Monday morning. USD/CAD is under pressure when it is trading below 1.0587. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.0545. On the other hand the market momentum is strong if it can trade above 1.0684. 

Upside Targeting Points : 1.0698 and 1.0724

Downside Targeting Points : 1.0514 and 1.0521

Hong Kong Qindex 12:55 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD

Daily Directional Indicator :  - (2.0221) - 2.0224* (2.0244) - 2.0253* - 2.0265 - 2.0352

Remarks : The market is likely to trade between 2.0221 - 2.0352 initially during early period of this week. GBP/USD is under pressure when it is trading below 2.0244. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 2.0221. On the other hand the market momentum is strong if it can trade above 2.0352. 

Upside Targeting Points : 2.0410 and 2.0524

Downside Targeting Points : 2.0120 and 2.0179

Hong Kong Qindex 12:50 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : 

Daily Directional Indicator :  1.1954* - (1.2013) - 1.2023* - 1.2029 - (1.2066) - 1.2112

Remarks : The market is likely to trade between 1.2013 - 1.2112 initially during early period of Monday morning. USD/CHF is under pressure when it is trading below 1.2013. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.1954. On the other hand the market momentum is strong if it can trade above 1.2112. 

Upside Targeting Points : 1.2121 and 1.2190

Downside Targeting Points : 1.1982 and 1.1998

Hong Kong Qindex 12:45 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : 

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.3594 - 1.3598 -  (1.3655) - (1.3712) - 1.3714* - 1.3774*

Remarks : The market is likely to trade between 1.3594 - 1.3714 initially during early period of this week. EUR/USD is under pressure when it is trading below 1.3655. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3594. On the other hand the market momentum is strong if it can trade above 1.3774. 

Upside Targeting Points : 1.3689 and 1.3707

Downside Targeting Points : 1.3539 and 1.3544

UK Alex 12:39 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Just noticed that Harvard University is amongst Sowood Capital's clients. Oh dear.

UK Alex 12:35 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:58 GMT July 30, 2007
M&A not driven purely by LBOs. Equity markets may still take some time to roll over.

dc CB 12:34 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Statcan:

RMPI: Mineral fuel prices rise
The prices for raw materials rose 0.6% in June, after dropping 0.2% in May.

IPPI: Second month-over-month decline for industrial prices registered a 1.3% decline.

Lahore FM 12:19 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 10:58 GMT July 27, 2007
additional long eurgbp 0.6717.no stops.

---
closed half at 0.6752.stops now in at entry for the rest.

dc CB 12:12 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
morning drumming.

Bulls Load Up on Stocks in Worst Rout Since 2002 (Update3)

Mtl JP 11:58 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:57 / Does it all combinedalready qualify as "contagion", or not yet ?

From this am's Black Swan Capital on GV Research:

The contraction in the credit markets is spreading to global investment-grade debt, with issuance of highly-rated bonds falling to the lowest levels in years. The tightening of credit has been most pronounced for lower-rated debt in the US, but figures from Thomson Financial show a significant decline in activity in the global investment-grade market as well…“Some of the key drivers of liquidity, the subprime and new debt issuance markets, have effectively shut down,” said Richard Gilhooly, senior fixed-income strategist at BNP Paribas. (FT)

Signs of US subprime crisis spreading - FT
"...In a statement issued late on Friday..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_gilbert&sid=ageDhNv.n1A4">Five Signs That Subprime Infection Is Worsening: Mark Gilbert - Bloomberg

Denmark, UK vulnerable to house prices fall - FT

Ominous when statements are being issued on late friday afternoons ?

Lahore FM 11:46 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
long again 1.2024,mind stops at 1.2000.target open.

Lahore FM 11:46 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:41 GMT July 26, 2007
long usdchf 1.2036,mind stops at 1.2008.
---
was stopped at entry 1.2036 with half closed earlier at 1.2120 area.

Lahore FM 11:38 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 10:51 GMT July 27, 2007
tentative long eurusd 1.3642.stopless for the time.
--------
closed half at 1.3667.stops to entry now in.

GENEVA DS 11:37 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
thanks Mumbai... yes... you are probably right... India will be able to keep its exchange at 40 to the USD... in order that all american businesses can put their call centers in this country... thanks I have a put 37 for 6 month and eventually I will loose the premium , but if USD is to tank over next 6 month, I guess USDINR will be a lot lower ... gl

Sydney ACC 11:24 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone explain:
In London the FTSE is down 0.25%, the LME Metals Index is down 0.50% yet BHP is up 2.2% and Rio Tinto is up 3.03%. In Australia today BHP rose 2.3% and Rio 1.3%.
Good support for these stocks despite weak metals prices which leads to AUD and GBP flows.

Syd 11:24 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Carry Trades Unwind As iTraxx Touches 500 Bps
The iTraxx Crossover, a benchmark of sentiment in the credit derivatives market, traded at an all-time high of 500 bps Monday, triggering more unwinding of carry trades and slippage in the main European equity bourses. EUR/JPY traded down to the session lows around 161.55, EUR/CHF touched a fresh three month low of 1.6414, while the CAC, DAX and FTSE equity indexes are between 0.1% and 0.4% lower.


Gen dk 10:59 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 10:57 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Subprime woes claim first German victim

Cali mmm 10:56 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
SC, My humble suggestion is to jus keep moving your stops.

manchester sc 10:47 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
help please. im short eur/chf and quite a few pips up, rather than close out can anyone suggest a good trade to hedge right now?

GVI john 10:44 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
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Gen dk 10:39 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai Deepak 10:34 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
DS....There is NO chance of a revaluation of INR in the near future and trading on based on those expectations is a setup for dissapointment.

India is a service based economy and NOT a manufacturing one.

USD-INR Last at 40.45/4575

Fwiw...Tommorrow is India's Q1 Monetary policy! No changes in any rates expected.

GENEVA DS 10:22 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
when will the revaluation of CNY and INR come... ? Just a huge dam , which if it is broken could lead to some good flooding... but probably then EURUSD and GBPUSD are gonna fall to 1.2800 and 1.9200 same time.... good time to buy Put Option EUR-INR... of GBP-INR ...? any thoughts out there guys ?

Hong Kong Qindex 10:19 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY :  

Daily Directional Indicator : 118.18 - 118.19* - 118.44* - (118.66) - 118.86 - (119.87)

Remarks : The market is likely to trade between 118.18 - 118.86 initially during early period of Monday morning. USD/JPY is under pressure when it is trading below 118.66. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 118.18. On the other hand the market momentum is strong if it can trade above 119.87. 


Upside Targeting Points : 119.10 and 119.87

Downside Targeting Points : 117.27 and 117.85

Syd 10:15 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
CORRECT:China Reserve Requirement Ratio Raised To 12%,Not 11%


China's raising of the required reserve ratio by 50 basis points raises the ratio to 12% for most banks.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:14 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY

Daily Directional Indicator : (159.66) - 160.59 - 161.68 - (161.82) - 162.55* - 163.24* 

Remarks : The market is likely to trade between 159.66 - 163.24 initially during early period of this week. EUR.JPY is under pressure when it is trading below 161.62. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 159.66. On the other hand the market momentum is strong if it can trade above 163.24. 


Upside Targeting Points : 163.15 and 163.46 

Downside Targeting Points : 159.05 and 159.90

Syd 09:56 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
China said Monday it will raise banks' required reserves by 50 basis points in a bid to curb excess liquidity and overly rapid loan growth.

It will be the ninth time in just over a year the bank has raised the requirement.

The reserve requirement ratio will rise 50 basis points effective Aug. 15, the People's Bank of China said in a statement. That raises the ratio for most banks to 11%.

Ldn 09:43 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
FT.com
Tougher terms for hedge funds
Prime brokerage departments at several investment banks have raised their margin requirements for certain hedge fund clients as they seek to insure themselves against the possibility of new hedge fund collapses as a result of the recent market turmoil
http://biz.yahoo.com/ft/070729/fto072920071317556859.html?.v=1

manchester sc 09:43 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
thanks qindex

Hong Kong Qindex 09:40 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF :

Daily Directional Indicator : (1.6346) - 1.6431 - 1.6456* - 1.6489 - (1.6495) - 1.6499*  

Remarks : The market is likely to trade between 1.6431 - 1.6499 initially during early period of Monday morning. EUR/GBP is under pressure when it is trading below 1.6495. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.6346. On the other hand the market momentum is strong if it can trade above 1.6499. 


Upside Targeting Points : 1.6487 and 1.6563 

Downside Targeting Points : 1.6375 and 1.6415

Cali mmm 09:39 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM, If you are around, can you share target for GBPJPY ? TKS!

Ldn 09:36 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
German industrial financier IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG (IKB.XE) Monday issued a profit warning and said its chief executive had stepped down, as the company said it has "felt the impact" of the U.S. subprime lending crisis.

UK Alex 09:32 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
America’s plight of falling shares, rising interest rates and tightening financial conditions is mirrored in the UK, throwing planned IPOs on the LSE into doubt. Ian Shepherdson, of High Frequency Economics, predicted that falling demand for IPOs would follow dwindling demand for bonds. Mr Shepherdson said: “The UK is the slave not the master here, in terms of markets. Bond issuance will slow in the UK as well, it will follow America. This is a very real contagion,” reported The Times.

PAR 09:23 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
IKB Deutsche Industrie Bank Ag another German Bank faced with huge potential losses in Us mortgages.

St. Annaland Bob 09:09 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
day trade: sell EUR/USD @ 13666/71/76/81/86/91

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:32 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
index Name / Last / Chg / %Chg

NIKKEI 225 17,289.30 5.49 0.03
SSE COMPOSITE INDEX 4,440.769 95.412 2.20
HANG SENG INDEX 22,739.90 169.49 0.75
BSE SENSEX 15,404.34 169.77 1.11

is the Asia is rebounding - I suppose we watch the EU and then US for cluw if the last correction is over and the trade is restarted along the trend.., no?

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:24 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai Composite on New all time high?

madrid mm 07:36 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Five Signs That Subprime Infection Is Worsening: Mark Gilbert

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ageDhNv.n1A4&refer=home

manchester sc 07:26 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
any opinions on chf this week against euro and $. interesting how chf has decoupled a little from yen

Hong Kong Qindex 07:20 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD 

Daily Directional Indicator : (1.4332) - (1.4414) - 1.4465* - 1.4482 - 1.4494* - 1.4503  

Remarks : The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 1.4540. On the other hand the market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 1.4465. Speculative selling pressure will increase when EUR/AUD is trading below 1.4332.

Upside Targeting Points : 1.4614 and 1.4618 

Downside Targeting Points : 1.4346 and 1.4392

melbourne DC 06:52 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:49 GMT July 30, 2007
agreed . thx . btw my overseas friends looking to buy oz assets much much happier now :))

melbourne DC 06:49 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:45 GMT July 30, 2007
ok. thx . the parameters quite clear .. 30pips around 85c.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:49 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 06:38 GMT - AUD/USD : Keep an eye on 0.8470.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:45 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 06:38 GMT - Good afternoon. AUD/USD : I guess we have seen the daily high already in Asian session.

Gen dk 06:41 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 06:40 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD 

Daily Directional Indicator : 1.5837* - (1.5921) - 1.5961* - 1.5994 - 1.5999 - (1.6026) 

Remarks : The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 1.6054. On the other hand the market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 1.6026. Speculative selling pressure will increase when EUR/AUD is trading below 1.5921.


Upside Targeting Points : 1.6156 and 1.6163 

Downside Targeting Points : 1.5833 and 1.5834

melbourne DC 06:38 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 06:29 GMT July 30, 2007
good afternoon sir, do u mean u expect audusd to move up first, consolidate than breaks down (below 0.8470) later?
thanks.
david.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:29 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : : Heading Towards 0.8372


Daily Directional Indicator : (0.8402) - (0.8470) - 0.8526* - 0.8534 - 0.8547 - 0.8639*

Remarks : The market is likely to trade between 0.8526 - 0.8639 initially during early period of Monday morning. AUD/USD is under pressure when it is trading below 0.8470. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8402. On the other hand the market momentum is strong if it can trade above 0.8639. 

Upside Targeting Points : 0.8651 and 0.8659
 
Downside Targeting Points : 0.8417 and 0.8435

madrid mm 06:28 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
FWIW this 118 lvl $/Yen will be hard to hit and take.

PAR 06:28 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Abe and LDP seem not to understand the result of the elections. Instead of focusing on the economy they keep intervening in the forex market. Normalising absurdly low interest rates and lower taxes is what the japanese economy need instead of " closely watching" .

madrid mm 06:26 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Japan's ruling LDP suffers heavy defeat, winning only 37 seats, coalition partner New Komeito 9 seats, opposition DPJ at least 60 seats. The ruling coalition will have about 20 seats short of a 122-seat majority in the Upper House.

* PM Shinzo Abe vows to stay on, will not dissolve the Lower House. Says may reshuffle his cabinet.

* LDP SecGen Hidenao Nakagawa resigns. Upper House Mikio Aoki resigns.

* Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki says there is no change to start tax reform deabte this autumn despite the election defeat.

* Japan Industrial Production for June coming in at +1.2%m/m, higherthan market expectation of 1.1%.

* Bloomberg Fed Watcher John Berry writes " It's going to take more than the recent bout of volatility in stock and bond markets to change the outcome of next week's Fed meeting. FOMC to keep rates unchanged, say its ``predominant policy concern'' is that inflation may not moderate as expected.

* American Home Mortgage faces call margins. The firm says its banks are demanding it put up more cash after the mortgage lender wrote down the value of its loan and security portfolios significantly. - Reuters.

* Australia Q3 business confidence index hit 4 year highs of 12, from 10 in Q2. - NAB

* NZ new dwelling consents for June +15.8%m/m, fastest in 1 and half years. - SNZ

Very choppy trading in early Monday trade - as market players were focused on 2 "opposing forces" - with JPY torn by 1) rising risk aversion/ credit crunch 2) LDP heavy defeat - political uncertainty.

USD/JPY hit 118.80 taken highs from NY close of 118.61- probably in reaction to LDP defeat, but highs may not be official given the "early" NZ time. Funds then drove it down to 3 and half months lows of 118.04 given, low since April 19, 117.59, on large lot Cross/JPY carry trades unwinding.

Downside saw good options related bids ahead of huge 118 options k-os- rumoured China, Asian accounts, triggering short-squeeze up to 118.45, and seeing 2-way interest. Offers 118.80.

"Similar" V-shape moves in Cross/JPY: EUR/JPY hitting 3-m lows of 161.67 given, then 161.40 taken, GBP/JPY from 240.10, then almost 2-m lows of 238.30 given and back up at 239.65.

AUD/JPY dived from 101.60, as it sprints toward the century mark - 100, with talks of low at 100.00 given, to hit 100 option triggers, b4 short-squeeze up to 101.10.

NZD/JPY dived through Y90 to 2-m lows of 89.30, then back up again. EUR/JPY remains weighed by talks of huge EUR17bln Spanish bond coupons + redemption today.

AUD off its 1-m lows 0.8460 - talks hedge funds, Asian CBs were huge sellers from Fri, recovering back above 0.8515-20 before large Swiss house sold it, talks hedge funds, incl Australian hedge funds/ Asian Cbs, US investments sold huge >AUD1b since Friday.

Kiwi rose on strong NZ building permits. EUR, GBP off lows, though talks Russian good GBP/JPY sellers.

Nikkei hit 4-mth lows of 17,042, just off 17K on LDP defeat, weaker Wall St, b4 recovering off lows. JGBs off highs on concerns BoJ may hike. 10-yr yield +0.025% 1.805%.

Sep crude oil dips in Asia after NY gains on Friday.; $76.60, -$0.42.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.04/118.80, EUR/USD 1.3611/1.3647, GBP/USD 2.0183/2.0248, USD/CHF 1.2057/1.2094, AUD/USD 0.8470/0.8540, NZD/USD 0.7561/0.7650.

madrid mm 06:24 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
hello all FX Jedi

hk ab 06:07 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
I have 8225.... but if that doesn't hold, nightmare comes.

hk 05:43 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Current aussie and kiwi may imply reasonably good reward/risk ratio trade to position buyers.

Syd 05:34 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   

HK ab may be slightly premature, looking for 8445 area to hold on but wouldnt like to be caught with other Hedge Funds bailing on force losses.


NZ Dollar Tumbles On Global Jitters; To Remain Under Pressure
The New Zealand dollar tumbled Monday as a bout of global risk aversion driven by U.S. concerns over credit markets saw investors continue to unwind carry trades.

Derek Rankin, director at Bancorp Treasury, said the Kiwi could still fall further, alongside other high-yielding currencies, and expects investors to remain focused on the performance of U.S. equity markets overnight.

"You've got to expect (the Kiwi) to remain under pressure. It's still open to further downside," said Rankin, noting that the local unit is totally dependent on global trends driven out of New York and, to some extent, the response from Asian markets, including Japan.

During early trade, the Kiwi fell to a six and a half week low of US$0.7561 - a drop of around 7% from its 25-year peak of US$0.8110 tapped early last week.

Dealers say indications by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand last week that it may be at the end of its tightening cycle have also hurt the local currency. Since Thursday's RBNZ policy review, the Kiwi has lost just over 5% of its value.

Wellington, N.Z. 05:28 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JULY 30th:


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Brisbane Flip 05:12 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
'Index slumped to a 3 1/2-month low last week" is a strange leap to "Cheapest Stocks in 16 Years"

Surely they were cheaper every day before Q2 2007 began.

hk ab 05:05 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
syd, would it be too brave to long aud now? under 85....

Syd 03:34 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Deutsche Bank says though Japan stock market and foreign investors will probably take a negative view of political instability after ruling coalition rout (Nikkei down 1% at midday), "we think Japan's economy is in a self-sustaining recovery that will probably not be affected all that much by troubles on the policy front". Adds in near term, market might benefit from possibility that government will postpone talks on consumption tax rise. Also says LDP Secretary-General Nakagawa's resignation could make it easier for BOJ to stay hawkish (since Nakagawa's one of most vocal critics of BOJ's tightening steps), though "situation remains fluid...with a cabinet reshuffle said to be coming around September".

Wellington, N.Z. 02:54 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JULY 30th:


My favored FX Trade for Today is AUD/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Mtl JP 02:06 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
To think about it, those selling the yaun would be, according to a quick back-of-envelope calculation, forfeiting another 4.4% added to its value by the end of the year, at only the current pace of Yuan appreciation.

Syd 01:59 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Bearish This Week, 0.8331 Initial Prop

Dow Jones technical analysis shows AUD/USD may trade lower this week. Daily MACD, stochastics bearish, latter not oversold, which suggests room for further AUD/USD decline near-term. Immediate support at 0.8331 (June 14 low), any breach would expose downside to 0.8161 (May 29 low). Resistance 0.8768 (Friday high), then 0.8871 (Wednesday's 18.5-year high). AUD/USD medium-term positive outlook under threat as weekly stochastic indicator turned bearish at overbought level. Pair last 0.8515.

Syd 01:51 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Spain's Little Britain
http://www.efip.co.uk/index.php?page=news.art&article=171

Mtl JP 01:44 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:35, what an endless idiot this PBOC Analyst Chai Qingshan. People who have "expectations that the yuan will appreciate" are getting rid of it in favour of something else.. something like "far from normal levelsstocks" ?? Only a CB backed fool could make such an explanatory statement.

Illegal Funds.. rofl

Syd 01:35 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
PBOC Analyst: Inflow Of Illegal Funds Fuels Stock Market Rise
Illegal funds are flowing into Chinese equity markets on a large scale, fueling the rise in stock prices, People's Bank of China chief money laundering analyst Chai Qingshan is quoted as saying in Monday's Financial News.

Excessive liquidity and expectations that the yuan will appreciate have driven an "overly fierce" rise in stock prices, the central bank-backed paper quoted Chai as saying.

Price/earnings ratios on stocks "are already far from normal levels," Chai added, according to the report.
www.financialnews.com.cn



Sydney ACC it a very scary situation another rate hike will break the camels back .

Bon Air VA Dennis 01:35 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Rye, NY et 00:36 GMT

not too many Latino's swimming the the Pacific to Aussieland, kind of a longer swim than the Ruo Grande doncha think? :)

hk ab 01:06 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
It's easier to see where the strong hands of the sellers at aussie and kiwi at the moment than the buying hands.

Sydney ACC 00:54 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:39 GMT July 30, 2007
I checked Domain.com.au a 3 bredroom house in Macquarie Fields will cost you AUD 250k. Lets say you bought a house three years ago for AUD 300k, you bought it with 20% equity, of which AUD 7k was first home buyers grant you input AUD 53k.
That house is now worth AUD 270k, based onm the RESIDEX average price movemnent. The mortgage of AUD 240k over the first three years of a 30 year mortgage would not have changed much. Your equity is now AUD 30k, its going to cost you AUD 8k to sell and move, leaves you with AUD 22k.
Interest rates if they go up next week will add another 25bp to the cost of your mortgage. Means your monthly repaymernts on AUD 240k will be up AUD 337.50 since you bought the house.
You are on the average wage (or close to it) three years ago you earned AUD 700.00 per week, your wages have gone up slightly ahead of the average wage increase for three years 15% cumulative so now you earn an extra AUD 450 a month. Leaves you AUD 250 per month to pay for the increased cost of food clothing heating, power etc. OK you got some tax cuts they helped sure.
What happened to your share of the mineral boom.

Syd 00:39 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
SZydney ACC 00:34 GMT what about the ones that had no deposits that have been on offer lately !!

Rye, NY et 00:36 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Many of our subprimes were marketed to recent (mostly Spanish-speaking) immigrants. Was there a similar situation in Australia?

SZydney ACC 00:34 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:28 GMT July 30, 2007
With these sort of figures another 25bp increase and the number of people handing in their keys to the lenders will increase.Given the decline in these prices those buyers out west that laid down a 20% deposit would be approaching negative equity after allowing for selling costs.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:33 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
The followings have been posted in GVI Forex Blog 
QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 11:40:51 GMT
USD/CHF : Daily Forecast


QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 11:15:23 GMT
GBP/USD : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 10:56:02 GMT
EUR/USD : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 09:43:29 GMT
AUD/USD : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 08:37:07 GMT
USD/CAD : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 02:43:16 GMT
Crude Oil : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Sunday July 29, 2007 - 02:06:58 GMT
Gold : Daily Forecast

QIndex
Saturday July 28, 2007 - 17:21:07 GMT
USD/JPY : Daily Forecast

Syd 00:28 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:24 GMT no didnt. its the younger generation thats being hit hard .

Sydney ACC 00:24 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Syd, don't know whether you saw this in yesterday's paper;

Sydney house prices suburb by suburb three year movement:
Randwick +14.17%
Northbridge +16.27%
Mount Druitt -5.75%
Macquarie Fields -9.33%

Certainly a tale of two cities in these figures. Highlights the growing disparity between the North Shore/Eastern Suburbs and out west.

Syd 00:22 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY Fall As Nikkei Drops
NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY fall on non-Japan short-term players' risk aversion as Nikkei opens lower, says senior customer dealer at major Japan bank. Tips support 90.00 for NZD/JPY (last 90.24), AUD/JPY 100.00 (last 100.78). Adds USD/JPY dragged down, but buy interest around 118 may support pair; USD/JPY last 118.44 on EBS. "Right now, election results are favorable to the yen. That is, stocks are falling and JGBs are being bought. As a result, players' risk reduction is accelerating."

Syd 00:19 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Denmark, UK, NZ Most Vulnerable To Fall In House Prices - FT
Denmark, Britain and New Zealand are the economies most vulnerable to a fall in house prices, says a report released Monday by Fitch Ratings.

The credit rating agency says the combination of overvalued property and highly indebted consumers makes these economies especially vulnerable as central banks tighten interest rates around the world, the Financial Times reported on its Web site Monday.

The report comes amid signs of slowing in many housing markets. In the US, stagnant or falling prices have contributed to the subprime mortgage crisis.

Fitch finds that houses are most overvalued in France, where prices are furthest above their long-run trend, and especially high relative to household incomes. Prices are high relative to rents in New Zealand and the U.K.

UK Alex 00:11 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Japanese industrial output rose 1.2% in June from May, marking the first rise in four months, the government said Monday.

hk ab 00:05 GMT July 30, 2007 Reply   
Abe lost because Abe let it drop too much......
Japanese feel hopeless and now all need to find the exit door of carrytrade.

Those sneaky bankers may push it to drop 30% to test the nerve of novice traders....

Hope the elderlies will not be affected too much. (Housewives as well).

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
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