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Forex Forum Archive for 07/31/2007

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Sydney ACC 23:58 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
London tightened its grip as the world’s dominant centre for currency dealing in the opening months of this year, further extending its lead over New York, its arch-rival.

Twin surveys released yesterday in the City and in New York showed that London is taking a still-larger share of global foreign exchange trading, based on average daily turnover in the world’s main currency dealing centres.

Mainstream daily foreign exchange turnover in London in April had surged by 27 per cent compared with last October to $1.2 trillion (£589 billion) a day, according to data from the City Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee of 31 leading institutions.

Meanwhile, New York’s average daily trading volume rose by a muted 6.8 per cent from April 2006 levels to $564.9 billion. This left New York’s volume of trades in spot transactions, forward transactions and currency swaps at 47 per cent of London’s levels.

London also sharply extended its lead over New York in so-called over-the-counter (OTC) currency dealing trades made directly between two parties. OTC volumes in London leapt by 47 per cent in April from last October to see average daily turnover of $131 billion. In New York, OTC dealing turnover rose by 6 per cent from April 2006 to an average daily level of $53 billion, also less than half the City’s level.

Dollar transactions, particularly dollar-euro trades, continued to dominate London dealing, accounting for a third of turnover, with dollar-sterling transactions accounting for some 16 per cent of transactions.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article2176149.ece

Hong Kong Qindex 23:50 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
QIndex
Tuesday July 31, 2007 - 23:46:38 GMT

AUD/USD : Heading Towards 0.8465

Hong Kong Qindex 23:37 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Tuesday July 31, 2007 - 17:00:21 GMT
QIndex - www.qindex.com


AUD/USD : Current Comments
AUD/USD : The market is vibrating around 0.8588 with an expected magnitude of 0.8557 - 0.8618. Projected resistant point are located at 0.8649 and 0.8711. The odds are still high that the market will continue its retreats and tackle the projected barrier at 0.8434 // 0.8465.

UK Alex 23:17 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Italy about to dump US bonds?

http://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/vwdnews/0,2828,ticker-27262409,00.html

UK Alex 23:10 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
From MarketWatch.com:

Other mortgage lenders also fell on Tuesday after American Home warned that investors in the secondary mortgage market have stopped buying loans from a variety of originators.

Impac and NovaStar "have exactly the same reliance on capital markets as American Home," KBW's George said. He covers Impac, but not NovaStar.

Some mortgage originators, like American Home and NovaStar, rely on credit lines from large banks to help them "warehouse" loans they've offered. When they've accumulated enough mortgages, the loans are packaged as mortgage-backed securities and sold on to institutional investors in the asset-backed securities market. Without such lines of credit, these lenders find it tough to keep originating loans.

Syd 23:08 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY has downward bias as players again reduce risk given U.S. stock fall on subprime-related worries, says senior interbank dealer at major Japan bank; may be at risk of break below 118 though are "so many" players interested in buying around there. Cap at 119 where funds may sell; tips 118-119 range vs 118.43 Key is how Asian stocks fare

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:03 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
closed short EY at 161.90 for a few pips..
will assess toworrow

Syd 23:03 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Going to 1.40?

The long term Elliott wave pattern along with sentiment indicators suggest that the USD/CAD is forming a multi-year low. The pattern on the hourly chart confirms the longer term bullish bias and provides a high reward/risk entry point.
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/USD_CAD___Going_to_1_40__1185908241736.html

UK Alex 23:03 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
The seas have turned decidedly choppy this summer for United Capital CEO John Devaney.

TheStreet.com has learned that the hedge fund manager has put one of his most prized possessions -- a 142-foot Trinity yacht dubbed Positive Carry -- up for sale, along with his $16.5 million second-home in Aspen, Colo. The house, called Sardy House, is the site of the nation's largest living Christmas tree.

A call to Devaney was not returned and officials at his Key Biscayne, Fla.-based hedge fund declined to comment. But according to Web site YachtCouncil.com, Devaney is asking $23.5 million for Positive Carry, which boasts a 42-inch retractable plasma screen with theater sound, a sun deck, an eight-person jacuzzi and barbecue area.

Norway e.s 22:54 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney acc , I see you longig aud/gbp at this levels,do you hawe one opinion abot aud /usd?( I am long but dont know)
Gl/gt

UK Alex 22:52 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:36 GMT July 31, 2007
Will be interesting to see how they avoided losses or hedged against them.

dc CB 22:52 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Bear Stearns has halted redemptions on a third hedge fund - Bloomberg

SF Jurin 22:38 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:38 GMT July 31, 2007
long usdjpy 118.83,stops at 60.

I go with you. What is your target, please.Tia

Gen dk 22:37 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:36 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 22:34 GMT actually heard they saw it coming and went short and made money out of the mess

Syd 22:35 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:30 GMT yes saw that, the situation seems to be getting worse possibly here too , they seem to be reluctant to admit the problems , got to see if Maquarie have any foreign exchange they need to unwind also, like the other lot.

UK Alex 22:34 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Deutsche Bank reports tomorrow - wonder whether any subprime damage has been inflicted?

GVI john 22:34 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

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Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
JPY-Nikkei AUD-ASX/S&P-200 Shanghai Comp/Hang Seng
FTSE/DAX CHF-SMI CAD-TSE USD-DJIA -NASDAQ -S&P

GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Wellington, N.Z. 22:31 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for Wednesday – Aug.1st:


My favored FX Trade for Today is USD/YEN


To request a Trial of my FX Service

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Max McKegg/TRL

Sydney ACC 22:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:26 GMT July 31, 2007
Possibly so, however, bear in mind the weather in NSW and Victoria during the month was not condusive to shopping. Reuters survey is 1.0% increase. It might be lower than that, if so then the weather could be used as an excuse unless there is a drastic difference.
Trade figure likewise should be affected through the closure of Newcastle port facilities. Reuters survey has -AUD 1.2 billion.
This is the last piece of information the RBA will have to work off so it could reinforce the market's perception of an increase next week. Personally I don't think they need to move but then I am going along with the market.
My strategy same as earlier in the week buying AUD against GBP at these levels.
GBP is very strong. There was an article in the Telegraph yesterday that said the ongoing fallout of the sub-prime mortgages would have a najor impact on the City. The authors expected GDP to decline 0.5% and property prices in London to fall. Futures contracts rose 3 tics yesterday so the market is either overlooking this report or needs time to digest the ramifications. I hope MPC take it into consideration. No move in the UK and a move here would be nice.

Norway e.s 22:25 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Any opinoon abot aud/usd? Trying to engoy the holyday buth the whether is so bad,just rain.so i enter a long aud/usd a few hoer ago whit stopp under resent low. at the moment it look lice a bad idea,maby vas beter to by a ticet under sun.
gl/gt

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:25 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
sold EY at 162.09 - had initial target on 2 hour chart at lower BBand ~ 161.50
--I think to take profit even earlier but I my observation is that the MAs, SAR, MACD and DM all point to lower for this one -- maybe a challange of the low below 161
// just an observation.

St. Annaland Bob 22:24 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   

just wanted to make sure that I do more than playing with rubber chickens all day ... LOL

St. Annaland Bob 22:23 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   


St. Annaland Bob 20:38 GMT June 4, 2007
Mr. Roth knew very well why he used the term temporary, smart money must purchase Swiss real estate currently...it's cheap!

St. Annaland Bob 07:14 GMT April 25, 2007
the Swiss real estate market looks like untouched pearl ... it's very logic that loads of money will start going that direction sooner then later ... compared to US and Europe and Swiss real estate market looks very, very cheap.

Philadelphia Caba 22:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
thanks John

GVI john 22:10 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
All Aussie data is 00:30 GMT during North American summer.

Philadelphia Caba 22:08 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
what time is aud data due, have gmt 12:30 or gmt 1:30, confused. tia!

USA Zeus 21:51 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:45 GMT July 31, 2007
Looks like the market is all set for a new round of explosive volatility in all asset (and debt) classes.

Be cool.


Happy Day!

St. Annaland Bob 21:40 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   


St. Annaland Bob 11:03 GMT June 28, 2007
ab, added @ 7690 ... added GBP/NZD longs @ 26035 ... added EUR/NZD longs @ 17500 ... getting ready for summer vacation and will let the market go my way, don't want to be around when the bullet gets through the bird ;)

St. Annaland Bob 22:58 GMT June 27, 2007
GBP/NZD filled @ 26150 ... target 2.6650

Mtl JP 21:39 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Ben simply can not be as much as micro-percieved (directly or by way of one/some of his talking circuit heads) that he would be showering the market with dollar bills from helicopters. That would be admitting that his economy and outlook for it are more dire than have been admitted so far.

Toronto MRC 21:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Although I think it is Bies that says the Feds not there to bail out the market. Fed handbook 101 is that if credit becomes a problem they must step in to assure the market there will be adequate credit. Kiss the dollar off on it's way to new lowers with oil likely to move higher and gold to head into a higher range. imho

Alaska Moon 21:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
charleston JL 20:51 GMT July 31, 2007
========
Look on the top red bar here on this website, click
brokers. Many of them will take your personal US$ check in the mail...
Good luck...
Moon

london sc 21:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
im long aud/usd, lets hope strong retail sales

Syd 21:26 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:10 GMT we should get a bounce from the Retail Sales do you think ?

Sydney ACC 21:10 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
The Macquarie story;

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,10166,22169318-462,00.html?from=public_rss

Syd 20:54 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
May get a bouce from retail sales and trade data today

Mtl JP 20:53 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 18:53 / c Futures Frm

Syd 20:52 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Looks like tha Maquarie thing has come home to roost especially with the US equities hitting the fan,

charleston JL 20:51 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Hey guys I'm new to Forex and am wanting to see who you guys use (americans) for currency exchange. I was going to simply use Bank of America's money ordering service but they make 11% off when you buy AND sell, and that will eat all the money I'm hoping to make by converting USD to CNY (yuan)...

I started signing up for XE.com but not sure who's legit and who isn't as far as brokers and such go, and I want to pay the lowest fees possible for a trade of about $5000.

Thank you, hope this response doesn't censored anybody off, but I'm new and can't really find answers anywhere else.

USA BAY 20:44 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore Fm,

Can you pls comment on aud/chf. tia

dc CB 20:43 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Like the old CarryOn movies...this story line keeps coming back.

U.S. Stocks Retreat on Subprime Concern; Bank, Tech Shares Fall
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aCTwdDu._JFA&refer=us

Syd 20:17 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Macquarie Funds Hurt By Credit Mkt Volatility
Macquarie Bank (MLB.AU) reveals retail investors facing losses of up to 25% in two of its high-yield investment funds, according to report in The Australian; MLB says two funds that were marketed to smaller investors could lose quarter of their value, or more than A$300 million; in statement Macquarie Fortress Investments says average price of assets in portfolios fell by 4% in July but because of loans made against funds, which have about A$1.3 billion invested, they could lose quarter of value. Macquarie is third similar fund to get into trouble after Basis Capital, Absolute Capital, but may be of new concern to investors as Fortress funds didn't have direct exposure to U.S. sub-prime mortgages.

london cg 20:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
bought usdjpy at 118.50 everybody is bettig 118 at least, stop 117.97

Makassar Alimin 19:59 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
stopped out on usdjpy long at 118.56 for -46

Makassar Alimin 19:54 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
heard offers now in front of 118.80-90 usdjpy, these should be trying to bring it down to new low, will see what asian session brings in later, see you all

ny lla 19:51 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
long yen against usd, dont care about the yield differential

Makassar Alimin 19:38 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul 19:36 GMT July 31, 2007

no gbp position at the moment, i need clearer picture after few more sessions

Lahore FM 19:38 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy 118.83,stops at 60.

bbsapul 19:36 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
alimin:

do you have any position on gbp/usd?
what do u think of it now in term of direction?

Makassar Alimin 19:26 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
steady flow of yen buyers, lemmings?

ny mm 19:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
indicators shows market is long yen, be careful with the squeezes.....mrs watanabe and all his patience and time is in front of all the short term speculators

Makassar Alimin 18:57 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
just chatted with a fellow trader, he is expecting more unwinding of carry trades starting tomorrow to mark the start of august and could be the case of market playing 'buy rumours, sell fact' before BOJ's rate decision

dc CB 18:53 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:42 GMT July 31, 2007

no matter what they say, this is going to get real ugly....a lot of teasers will re-set this fall and winter. That guy Cramer was on the Street.com TV channel telling people the financially the best choice was to walk away from the house.

dc CB 18:50 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
AHM 1.14 - 1.15. 18 million shares since it opened

Makassar Alimin 18:48 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
certainly a very volatile US session, stoxx is telling the story

Lahore FM 18:43 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
commodity pairs on tenterhooks.

Mtl JP 18:42 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
dc CB / like those proverbial white sox coming eventually back into fashion: ..."Greenspan's last rescue also produced the lowest interest rates since 1958, which caused people to take chances, ranging from buying homes to investing. Some bought more houses than they could afford, while others looked for high returns without considering risk.
But with reward comes risk, whether people realize it or not. Now that risk has surfaced, investors are falling back to the very Treasuries they shunned -- earning even lower interest rates than they did before.
This will not last long, since money managers are under constant pressure to produce bigger returns that those available to anyone who buys a Treasury. They are clearly counting on a Bernanke put. ..." - IRWIN KELLNER, marketwatch

geneva 18:22 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
SELL CL 78.10

dc CB 18:17 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
FYI
American Home Mortgage resumes trading $1.40-1.45last

dc CB 18:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
American Home Can't Fund Loans, May Liquidate Assets (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a2yB9pe.3k3A&refer=us

HK Kevin 18:07 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Closed short USD/JPY from 119.18 at 118.97. Good night

dc CB 18:01 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
FYI: AMH American Home Mortgage, which has yet to open (did not trade yesterday)...is now roiling the Good Times Market, with rumors that it may ahve to liquidate. If it opens range of $1 to $4 vs $10.47 the last time it traded.

Could be that once the windows are dressed...giving one more push higher in the indexes...that the market will tank into and post close. ????? that is the question for the Carry.

USA Zeus 17:45 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the market is all set for a new round of explosive volatility in all asset (and debt) classes.

Be cool.

dc CB 17:33 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Good Advise???????????


Buy Stocks, U.S. Mortgage-Backed Credit, HSBC Says (Update1)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=a7XuUu3Wvge8&refer=stocks

London NYAM 17:10 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
stops and limits in bye GV

London NYAM 16:59 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
sold second lot of GBPJPY 242.73 avg. 242.61 stop above 243.05 target below 241.00

dc CB 16:45 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
NY oil above 78

hawthorne, ca thetrendmyfrenz 16:41 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
GBP - imo will test 2.0415/425 shortly from now, then test 2.05, later tonight

London NYAM 16:40 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
EURGBP got clobbered. Added to long at .6728

Lahore FM 16:36 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
sold gbpusd 2.0368,stops at 90.

Makassar Alimin 16:20 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
think this eurjpy to 165 at least is a done deal even those want to short it will wait for this level to print, good r/r at this stage with convergence of multiple daily MAs

paris rs 16:20 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
i am with you makassar, buy usdjpy you have BOJ plus carry plus oversold dollar plus paulson

Gen dk 16:17 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Monaco Oil man 16:13 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 15:58 GMT July 31, 2007

Only $/Y 118 (see friday gvi) for 121.85..(As EY moves back to its previous highs or above).

As for $:CAD , did not , as I was long GBP/CAD in both spot and options.

dc CB 16:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
fwiw. market(s) are extremely nervous. rather than rumors of buy outs there are rumors of busted deals. TXU from before and now the Boots deal...all with the same "backers are pulling out theme".

Oilman, since I trade primarily futures, they are all USD based...lol

Hong Kong Qindex 16:11 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : A projected resistant point is positioning at 2.0317.

Makassar Alimin 16:09 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 15:58 GMT July 31, 2007

follow me, buy usdjpy, get support from carry plus BOJ sans and formidable and ever revenging housewives LOL

hong kong seek 15:58 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 15:55 GMT July 31, 2007
which pair do u recommend if i have to buy us$ ?

London NYAM 15:57 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
short again at 242.50 will add if we see 242.70

Monaco Oil man 15:55 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 15:45 GMT July 31, 2007


$/CAD should stay range bound for some time , between 1.04-1.09 while the crosses make their upside...

Don't really like Buying US$ , even though I said 118 $/Y or X/CAD pairs moving up , US$ is definitely not my preferred currency to short YEN or CAD.

GT.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:53 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : the market is trying to tackle 2.0355 which is the mid-point reference of 2.0296 and 2.0415.

London NYAM 15:52 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
out for other half at 242.50
now potential reverse soon?

Monaco Oil man 15:47 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:10 GMT July 31, 2007
----

I don't see carry in danger atm...As I posted 10 Days ago, the carry traders had taken an increase in JPY calls (so did i...Knock in was 165.50 EY, which was knocked in the same day it was supposed to expire..Lucky on that one) , meaning they exercise , go short YEN again , and slowly increase in JPY calls (as prices move up) ...So JPY should keep weak this month(as the housewife (a denigrating word , as they are formidable traders , as most are sitting in hedged...Or i should say their bank is doing them nice setups)...
Under 160 EY , there could be a larger move , however models for the moment are still pointing to further upside in EY : Downside Volatility is too low right now to provide safe short in EY , long term wise..
It could change, but so far , it hasn't.

GT.

London NYAM 15:47 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sold half GBPUSD at 242.40. for 40

Lahore FM 15:45 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
seek i have no idea re crude,Zeus is the guy for that.

hong kong seek 15:45 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 15:37 GMT July 31, 2007
how about CAD ? me think 1.0650~700 is critical for the next 300 pips move....gl

USA Zeus 15:41 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 21:11 GMT July 2, 2007
EUR/USD From the magical 1.3277 support to 1.3777 perhaps.

Ok will check back here when oil hits 77.77 (Hope we see that before the Easter Bunny LOL)

Happy Day!

LOL

Monaco Oil man 15:37 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Exploitable x/cad moves

Well closing above 2.1630 tonight, calls for a fast move next week to 2.20...Then 2.26..

GT

Makassar Alimin 15:34 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
if all is well, should be able to see 119.70 next

London NYAM 15:34 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
lookingl like a b-wave head fake down (in a descending triangle) long now at 242.00 looking for 50 or so

Makassar Alimin 15:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy 119.02, stop 118.56, target open

hong kong seek 15:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
FM--any view on Crude ..? gl

Cali mmm 15:28 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Thank you FM.

los angeles bernie 15:21 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore---

yes all well and for you too i hope. now trading GB/JY using MA...your good example has broadened my shortsighted FX horizon.

HK Kevin 15:19 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax, your projections on gbp//jpy match my USD/JPY trade direction. Move my t/p up to 118.80
HK Kevin 10:43 GMT July 31, 2007
Just sold small USD/JPY at 119.18,. Stop above today's high, t/p 118.60/70. It's daytrade and must close by NY close.

London NYAM 15:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Out of short at 242.17 for 27 pips not displaying impulsive movement and the GBPUSD seems to be cranking up again.

Syd 15:13 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
MacBank: brace for sub-prime loss
August 01, 2007
THE Australian fallout from the sub-prime loan crisis in the US worsened substantially last night after Macquarie Bank revealed that retail investors faced losses of up to 25 per cent in two of Macquarie's high-yield investment funds.

Macquarie, known colloquially as the millionaires' factory because of the headline-grabbing size of its executives' pay packets, said last night that two of its funds which were marketed to smaller investors could lose a quarter of their value, or more than $300 million

He also warned that the funds faced possible margin calls from their lenders if they could not sell enough assets to reduce leverage.

Macquarie becomes the third similar fund to get into trouble after Basis Capital and Absolute Capital froze investors' money, but it could mark a new, dangerous phase as the Fortress funds did not in fact have any direct exposure to US sub-prime mortgages.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22168528-643,00.html

Lahore FM 15:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 14:34 GMT July 31, 2007
Bernie,all well i hope.
mmm,241.00/40.

los angeles bernie 15:08 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
ldn jp -- I use 5,10 and 60 day MA on a 30 min screen for Euro/US

London NYAM 15:00 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
ldn jp 14:56 GMT July 31, 2007 //
Embarrassingly, I do not use moving averages at all. Trendlines, Fibs and Elliott/Neely and a cycle indicater thats not always working at the mo.

ldn jp 14:56 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:15 GMT July 31, 2007
In the archives last year FM talked about using a few moving averages that worked best for him but I don't believe he divulged them. I guess most could just 'trial' different values themselves and see how they behave across all time frames.

I personally don't think you can go wrong with MA's like these used by Jay:-

GVI Jay 16:12 GMT July 24, 2007
$/yen correction or reversal?
I am using a down channel on daily charts but need confirmation from a break of the 100 and 200 day mva to confirm a reversal.

hk revdax 14:56 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:16 GMT July 31, 2007
AUD/USD : We have seen the daily high already around 0.8617.
---------------------
Agreed. I have arrived at the same conclusion using FM and NYAM methodology which from my perspective is not e-wave at all...hahaha

hk revdax 14:47 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JY could reach 240.73 in tomorrow's trading, according to my Today Special theory...lol

hk revdax 14:41 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
NYAM & FM//In order for me to even mimic what two of you are doing, the broker I am dealing with has to rebate me at least 1 pip for each trade in order to make it worth my while.
That said, what I have learned from your e-wave methodology does provide me an added confirmation to the old fashioned RSI divergency which i am about to lose faith with.

Cali mmm 14:34 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Hi FM. Any target for GBPJPY you can share? TKS!

Lahore FM 14:26 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:12 GMT July 31, 2007
Revdax,NYAM follows e-waves whereas i like to read about them.i find e-waves doubly interesting with my own analysis.

london dheeman 14:25 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
fm, well im indian and watch all the films so do know them. india always been labelled as politically corrupt so chance to change things

ny am 14:17 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
long USDJPY stop 118.75
short eurusd stop 1.3740

Hong Kong Qindex 14:16 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : We have seen the daily high already around 0.8617.

London NYAM 14:15 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 14:12 GMT July 31, 2007// I think Lahore is the guru on the intraday-s/t trade. His levels often mirror mine but I havent figured out his method. glgt

hk revdax 14:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM //I am learning from both you and FM. The methodology seems to be the same...lol

Lahore FM 14:11 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
ref 1348 gmt,counterbalancing confidence.great!

Sydney ACC 14:08 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Mineral and mining related stocks on the FTSE as up between 3% and 4%.
BHP 4.35%, Rio 4%, Anglo American 4.46%, XStrata 3.69%.

London NYAM 14:07 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
And down we go again. Short GBPJPY at higher level 242.44

Lahore FM 14:06 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
london dheeman 13:56 GMT July 31, 2007
you seem to know them all.yes,that is the only way to keep law in the land.

dc CB 14:01 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Consumer Confidence 112.6 vs 105.0 consensus

london dheeman 13:56 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
al, its about time he was put in jail and shows no one is above law in india. salman khan next

London NYAM 13:54 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY short out at break even. Think an extended correction is on the cards and contra play in USA.

dc CB 13:50 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
CNBC now reports financers are not pulling out of the TXU deal.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lahore FM 13:48 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
techs favour usd strength.might be kicked off by a counterbalancing confidence.had no negative effect so far though.

Lahore FM 13:46 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
sorry read that 53.4 as i see now on gvi too.

Lahore FM 13:44 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
chi strong pmi 63.4.

Mumbai al 13:40 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Bollywood star Sanjay Dutt sentenced to a six year term for unauthorised arms possession.

dc CB 13:39 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
this from earlier. TXU is a Texas Utility that was to be take private...a large Deal.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
from briefing.com
TXU TXU Corp: Lenders to TXU buyers mull pulling out, Thomson Financial says - Bloomberg (65.90 )
Lenders include Citi, Lehman; buyers include KKR, TPG, etc. $1 bln breakup fee to lenders less than possible losses.

London NYAM 13:33 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Selling GBPJPY again at 242.26 will add above

Bon Air VA Dennis 13:32 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:26 GMT

Not an uncommon practice for JPN banks, lifers and perhaps even your beloved Kampo. Historically they have always done this.

Mumbai Deepak 13:28 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
ab……… Carry-Trades NOT are melting. Its just the fear of a melt down which keeps people away. In retrospect, people often underperfrom the market, while the carry continues in its merry way. I guess, the lows for the current “meltdown” have already been seen. If this breaks, then 200-MA for E-Y may be seen, however, that should NOT be bet upon.

The trend is Bullish across all the markets amid all the gloom and doom, while the markets maintain above their Feb-March-2007 Lows. Every market will take a correction from time to time and that’s the time to buy while a progression of higher lows and higher highs are maintained on weekly charts, as has been the case with E-Y.

Note that this is a longer-term view while the Feb-07 Lows are maintained. AUD is a Buy now and on dips.

All IMO

PAR 13:26 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Some Japanese banks must also been holding Us subprime loans but probably have failed to report it so till now .

london jc 13:25 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
okay, im blindly following oil man. long aud/usd 8588

Sydney ACC 13:16 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 12:55 GMT July 31, 2007
True enough seems that we have most of what the world wants - six years ago we were being derided as an old world economy, commodities based rather than IT.
Problem is trying to rely on data prior to the float is unreliable. The exchange rate prior to date was politically manipulated either to keep the value down in help the farmers or in the latter years too high for too long to combat inflation. There were some large devaluations in the latter part of the 1970's when commodity prices began to wane. Tariffs and quotas ensured local industry could compete with imports which also made Australian manufacturers inefficient.
Since the float Australia's inflation rate has traditionally been higher than its main trading partners so an exchange rate of the magnitude you mentioned would decimate what's left of our maufacturing industry and a thriving tourisim industry that is major employer.

Como Perrie 13:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
FRANKFURT: A small German bank on Monday became the second European victim of gambles in securities issued by the tottering subprime mortgage business in the United States, first was the italian Italease who offered fixed long term low interest rates warrants. The news raised the possibility that a contagion may reach further into European markets than had been anticipated.

IKB Deutsche Industriebank, a bank that provides loads to medium-sized companies, said that investments in the financial instruments that fueled the subprime lending industry in the United States were sinking in value, threatening its own creditworthiness.

hk ab 13:10 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
oil man, are you ruling out the possibility of a serious carry-trade retreat from japan? That might hinder any target m/t, l/t if it unfolds in the coming weeks.

London NYAM 13:09 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
out other half GBPJPY at 241.63 for 123 pips average 106 pips.

London NYAM 13:05 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Closed half gbpjpy short 241.95 for 96 pips

hk revdax 12:58 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:39//Tks. I am a perfectionist and am waiting for Euro/$ to make a final kick-up ... but it may or may not come.

Monaco Oil man 12:55 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 12:50 GMT July 31, 2007

FEB 1981 is high 1.19 too...
Time for a change then, charts are but a reflection of the past , anyways..The only thing they are good for is to show the direction : The current trend....
OZI is the best bet out there , good carry , lots of commodities (hence it's name : COM DOLS) which are running into shortage...Strong economy...Kangoroos...What more would anyone want?

Lahore FM 12:51 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 12:45 GMT July 31, 2007
thanx CB!

Monaco Oil man 12:51 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Well 1.1900 is the highest from 1978 to 81...So ok , 1.1900 instead of 1.1930...Though If given 1.1900 for my 85-86 longs , i'll be happy to give 30 pips...

GT.

Sydney ACC 12:50 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 12:42 GMT July 31, 2007
September 1973 to October 1974 under a fixed rate regime AUD/USD was 1.4875.
AUD/USD has never traded above parity since it broke that level in June 1982 when it was fixed to a TWI and has never been above 90 cents since April 1984, five months after the float.

Lahore FM 12:50 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
closed half of 119.44 short usdjpy at 119.15 for 29 pips.

dc CB 12:45 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Canadian Economy Grew 0.3 Percent in May, Led by Retailing
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aFmPu5_dKGns&refer=canada


Marathon to Buy Western Oil Sands for C$5.8 Billion
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=a_eIDH053qCU&refer=canada

Monaco Oil man 12:42 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
1.1930 is highest on chart or so...Yes around 80's level..

GT

Makassar Alimin 12:40 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 12:35 GMT July 31, 2007

how do you derive that target number? is it from 1980 levels?TIA

Lahore FM 12:39 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 12:37 GMT July 31, 2007
1.3715 looks like a sell to me if eurusd is a sell at all.stops at 40/60 will do quite fine.

Lahore FM 12:37 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
closed half of gbpjpy short 242.90 at 242.30 for 60 pips.stops for rest remain at 243.50.

hk revdax 12:37 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM //Kindly give me an idea how you are going to skin Euro/$? TIA

Monaco Oil man 12:35 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
OZI is a good buy at 8600 , particularly in the long term with 1.19 in mind.

Still good time to swap margin account to AUD , with an hedge KI 8200.

GT.

Lahore FM 12:32 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:26 GMT July 31, 2007
felt like a fresh long.carrying half from earlier.

long eurgbp 0.6747,stopless for now.

dc CB 12:32 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
CAD
statcan

May 2007
Economic activity increased 0.3% in May, after remaining essentially unchanged in April. Significant increases in retail and wholesale trade propelled the growth in May, while an important drop in oil and gas exploration dampened it

Lahore FM 12:29 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:26 GMT July 31, 2007
quite agree!

London NYAM 12:26 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
FM looks like the EURGBP may be done correcting (looking for an impulsive break of .6751

dc CB 12:23 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:17 GMT July 31, 2007
I have never heard Abby Cohen given a negative comment on the market

of course, from such a nice lady...anything bad, perish the thought!

dc CB 12:20 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
CAD should be helped along today by recovery in US equities, GDP, and end of month flows, with oil above 77 and metals trading up again. On a daily chart could begin to form the right shoulder.

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:19 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
that is EXACTLY what I meant PAR :)

Gen dk 12:19 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 12:17 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
I have never heard Abby Cohen given a negative comment on the market . She is perpetuum optimistic .

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:15 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 12:09 GMT

Shades of the 1990's when AJC reigned as the Queen of talking heads/broker mouthpieces.

Lahore FM 12:13 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 12:12 GMT July 31, 2007
lolzzz...am glad to hear.i think you had been riddling it for some time.best of trades my friend!

hk revdax 12:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:57//I seem to have figured out how you come up with those short term trading methodologies...lol

dc CB 12:09 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Abby sez:

Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen on CNBC says they don't see an economic recession, and valuation is not at all stretched in the equity mkt, as the S&P is trading at a P/E of less than 16x. Says they've been talking about a rotation in the mkts away from housing and the consumer, toward capital spending by U.S. companies, and those co's that do business outside the U.S. that are benefiting improved economic tone in Europe and other places.

London NYAM 12:09 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
that was sold at 99.01 chfjpy

London NYAM 12:08 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
sold 1/3 pos CHFJPY 90.01 S/L above 90.35 target @ 98.30

van Gecko 12:02 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 10;41.. hope you are fine..
while some young baby bear guns are eager to dive in & drill the dollar further into the ground near a multi-decade lows, those of us who have cut their teeth in this cesspool may swim in the pool with a different prespective.. simplicity & longevity may be collectively exhaustive in fx.. cheers

Lahore FM 11:57 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 11:56 GMT July 31, 2007
have not been following the pair that much Revdax.just looked before posting this 164.10 for stops is good but would rather go with mind stops.

Lahore FM 11:56 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
it is going to be an interesting us session with Cad GDP data out at 1230 gmt.previous m/m gdp was flat.consensus sees 0.4 percent gain m/m.

hk revdax 11:56 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM //How about shorting Eur/JY with a stop at 163.91?

Lahore FM 11:40 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
short gbpjpy 242.90,stops at 243.50.

Lahore FM 11:38 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
**
shorted another 119.44**,stops at 119.70.

London NYAM 11:37 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
sold half pos. GBPJPY 242.86 add half stop just above 243.20 target under 239.00

Lahore FM 11:37 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
shorted another 119.4,stops at 119.70.

Syd 11:35 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Central bankers seem to be increasingly worried about the risks of global financial catastrophe… even though they are primarily responsible for creating the conditions that could produce such a disaster!

Their own “club,” the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements (BIS), warns ominously in its latest annual report that the world economy could experience a massive shock, as it has in the past.
http://www.moneyweek.com/file/32916/four-ways-to-prepare-for-a-global-financial-crisis.html

dc CB 11:28 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Last week this headline would have cratered stox and the USD/Yen would have dropped below 118.

Bear, Lehman, Merrill, Goldman Traded as Junk, Derivatives Show
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=afHmD6FZ2Wpw&refer=us

Syd 11:27 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   

The Italian lower house of parliament Tuesday approved a plan put forward by Premier Romano Prodi's ruling majority that includes looking at using central bank gold and foreign exchange reserves to cut the country's huge debtThe plan approved by the lower house of parliament says that the aim is to use the central bank's reserves to cut the debt "significantly."

However, the Bank of Italy is bound by an international agreement which effectively limits its gold sales to around EUR2.5 billion a year. Moreover, the central bank is required by the European Central Bank to keep some foreign exchange reserves in case they're needed to intervene in the currency markets.
The Bank of Italy reserve plan was inserted at the last minute into an economic document serving as the 2008 budget outline, approved by the Prodi government a month ago.

The document, known by its Italian acronym DPEF, aims to cut Italy's debt to 103.2% of gross domestic product in 2008 from 105.1% of GDP this year. That gap corresponds to around EUR27 billion.

In 2006, the Bank Of Italy's gold reserves amounted to EUR38 billion, up from EUR34 billion in 2005. The central bank's foreign exchanges stood at EUR24 billion last year, unchanged from 2005.

Italy will consult its European Union partners as it considers using the central bank reserves to cut the debt, the plan states, adding that recent experiences in other countries would be looked at.


Syd 11:23 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 11:14 GMT apparently there is an article coming out in tomorrows press about them that the reporter fromTher Australian said worth reading ...looking at the articles on them can see now why , also said due to earnig season many Hedge Funds hiding problems will be forced into the open

Yesterday PM aired an exclusive interview with the big investor who blew the whistle on Enron and now says Macquarie Bank is a "house of cards".
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s1939282.htm

warsaw TOMi 11:15 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
nice FM, should it break up, buy 11955 for 12020 and above targets.

Helsinki iw 11:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd, Jim Chanos of Kynikos identified Macquarie as a prime short candidate about a month ago.

Syd 11:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sub-prime crisis canary in coal mine

Macquarie Bank chief executive Allan Moss said last week that his bank had no exposure to the US problem, but admitted that the fallout in terms of the widening spreads in world credit markets could get worse before it gets better.

Private equity, which is far more vulnerable to the price and availability of debt than equity, cannot help but be affected by the nerves in the world's credit markets, even though their investment targets might be different.

Looking back, one could argue that the $11 billion private equity bid for Qantas, launched by the Macquarie Bank-backed Airline Partners Australia, might be seen as a high-water mark of private equity bids in the current Australian market.

Not only did its funding feature the much vaunted "covenant lite" lack of conditions by lenders, but the eager bankers were further convinced to increase their risk by agreeing to a deal that would have seen APA initially get only 70 per cent of Qantas -- rather than the initial 100 per cent -- allowing APA immediate access to the airline's cash flows.

Since then, the mood of lenders to private equity players has become much more critical, as Coles chairman Rick Allert can attest having already seen the big private equity bidders for his company fall away.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22129531-5013510,00.html

MLT PA 11:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY targeting 119.75/90

London NYAM 11:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Eyeing that short too. But seems like a high collection of stops likely above 119.50 might shift it through to above 119.60 and a pop above 119.40 looks really likely first.

Lahore FM 11:10 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
agree with tomi,short usdjpy 119.28 with 60 for stops,target open.

warsaw TOMi 11:08 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
inshort uj at 11933 stop 11955,targeting 11850-70,maybe 11808 mark.

Lahore FM 11:06 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
closed remainder of 2.4350 long gbpchf at 2.4485 for cumulative profit of 135 pips.

Wellington, N.Z. 10:54 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
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GVI john 10:54 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
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Monaco Oil man 10:53 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
US$ readying for Downleg 3 (See previous june and july)...
Still a good Sell on blips , no change to the US$ , apart the recent blip gives more enthusiasm to the bottom pickers.

GT.

Syd 10:47 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Rumour that an Article coming out tomorrow by Bethany Mclean article on macquarie bank - something to do with dodgy hedge funds sky news

HK Kevin 10:43 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Just sold small USD/JPY at 119.18,. Stop above today's high, t/p 118.60/70. It's daytrade and must close by NY close.

hk revdax 10:41 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 09:48 //How are you doing? I do feel too that the long stepped-upon US$, which to many is still drilling a hole on the ground, is coming back for some distance of retracement.

Gen dk 10:11 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

van Gecko 09:48 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   

"the rules of engagement for further Dollar weakness below Index 81/80 may be quite different from the previous 5 year "bear walk in the park" inside the 120/80 historical bands.."

Looks like some mid to long term money plus sovereign bids are taking advantage of this multi-decade window of opportunity to buy some dollars for another multi-year run.. markets (forex, metals & indices) are at levels which some of us may not be seen again in their trading career..
life is good.. be happy.. fx'ing summer days are here again..
cheerios..


Syd 09:45 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Credit insurance costs soar to record
The cost of insurance against credit defaults hit record levels on both sides of the Atlantic on Monday amid concerns that some investors were being forced to sell assets to cover losses on subprime mortgages.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/041c1122-3ed1-11dc-bfcf-0000779fd2ac.html

Syd 09:40 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 09:35 GMT well lit seems the Hedge Funds have taken notice . If the housewives in Japan get on the wagon it could snowball
ANZ head of markets John Body said: "It's the first time we've actually seen US hedge accounts seriously look at short kiwi positions. They've refrained from selling the kiwi probably since it was in the US64c to US66c range. Now the Reserve Bank's gone to neutral and the global environment suggest the kiwi could in fact correct, they're quite happy to roll the dice again.

Sydney ACC 09:35 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:28 GMT July 31, 2007
What he said is true enough yes Kiwi is overvalued. My only concern is the person that said it. Peters' has shot his mouth off too many times in the past and damaged his credibility. He was once the "heir apparent" in the Nationals but couldn't keep his mouth shut. As a consequence the NZ market will ignore his comment.

Syd 09:35 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Bridgecorp receivers have bad news for investors
Bridgecorp's Australian, Fijian and other offshore loans and receivables totalled $157.1m, which if fully recovered would comprise 34c of the 74c in the dollar returned to investors.
LINK

Brisbane Flip 09:34 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Kiwis has been above what appears Mr Peters theoretical "fair value" model of 56c (73% of 77c) for 4 1/2 years now. I wonderwhether he similarly sees overvalued NZ equity and real estate markets then. I am sure the voters would love to see NZ return to the bad old days of weak currency and even weaker asset markets -NOT

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 09:33 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
UK household savings ratio is currently at 2%, its lowest since 1960.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 09:33 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
UK July GfK consumer confidence at -6, below consensus expectations of -4 and previous month's outturn of -3.

The savings index jumped by 6 points to +42, its highest level since 1989.

Syd 09:28 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC and theres more ;-))

US hedge funds dump kiwi dollar
Giant US hedge funds are dumping the New Zealand dollar in the foreign exchange market on expectations that its recent plunge has further to run.

Since US sub-prime mortgage and credit market woes spilled over into the forex market last week, the kiwi has lost just over 6 per cent of its value against the greenback as carry trade positions are unwound.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10454802

NY tim 09:26 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
is cable heading to 2.000000

Sydney ACC 09:20 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
The New Zealand dollar suffered a late setback this afternoon after Foreign Minister Winston Peters said it could fall another 27 per cent.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10454934

Syd 09:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Industrial confidence in the euro zone weakened slightly in July as new orders slowed in response to a strengthening euro.

According to the European Commission's monthly survey of economic sentiment in the euro zone published Tuesday, the headline measure of industrial confidence in the 13 countries that share the euro fell to 5 from 6 in June, in line with expectations.

The headline measure of consumer confidence was unchanged at -26, also in line with economists' forecasts. Confidence in the services sector was unaltered, while confidence in the retail sector picked up and confidence in the construction sector weakened.

Syd 09:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The annual rate of consumer-price inflation in the 13 countries that share the euro eased back in July to 1.8%, the lowest level since February this year, but still remained around the European Central Bank's target of price stability, preliminary data from the European Union's statistics office showed Tuesday.

The outcome is below economists' expectations of a 1.9% rate, unchanged from June, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 09:03 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Eurozone May unemployment rate was also revised down from 7.0% to 6.9%.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 09:02 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Eurozone flash HICP estimate for July is +1.8% y/y, against expectations for unchanged at 1.9%.

Eurozone July consumer confidence is -2 against expectations for unchanged from -2.

The Eurozone unemployment rate is 6.9% , versus forecasts for unchanged at 7.0%.

PAR 08:51 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
It must be a nice feeling to see half your Harvard University donation being lost by an obscure hedge fund. Lol.

HK Kevin 08:48 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:58 GMT July 30, 2007
Short USD/CAD at 1.0682 earlier, stop above today's high, 1st t/p around 1.0605, then 1.0550.
Closed earlier at 1.0622.

Syd 08:37 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
German retail sales in June rose less than expected on the month, but private consumption, albeit fragile, will be a contributor to gross domestic product growth in the second quarter, analysts said Tuesday.

Retail sales rose 0.7% in June from May in real, adjusted terms, and were down 0.8% from June 2006, the Federal Statistics Office said. A fall in food, non-specialized retail and mail order sales damped growth, the data showed.

The consensus forecast of 18 analysts in a Dow Jones Newswires survey was for growth of 1.5% on the month.

The statistics office also revised its data for May downward to a fall of 2.5% on the month from a preliminary decline of 1.8% and to a fall of 4.2% on the year from a drop of 3.7% previously.

Ldn 08:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
American Home Mortgage Investment shares sank on Monday after the home loan provider announced "major" writedowns, delayed a dividend, and said lenders were demanding it put up more cash. "Bankruptcy is not out of the question," said Matt Howlett, an analyst at Fox-Pitt Kelton Inc. in New York. "It needs to find a partner with alternative funding and hope the market turns around. It's going to be tough."

He added, "It's clear now we're in a liquidity crisis. Any loans that aren't pure prime are falling in value."

American Home did not immediately return a call seeking comment.American Home relies on short-term bank financing to temporarily fund home loans it makes. At the end of March, it had $4.01 billion in "warehouse" lines of credit.


Ldn 08:09 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Hedge fund Sowood Capital told investors on Monday that it would shut down after losing half of its assets on soured bond market bets, becoming the first-high profile fund forced out of business by recent market turmoil.

The Boston-based fund, which managed money for Harvard University and other prominent clients, saw assets dwindle to roughly $1.5 billion from $3.0 billion in less than four weeks.
Speculation spread through bond markets on Friday that a Boston-based fund was in deep trouble, but by week's end, a person familiar with Sowood's operations said it had lost 8% in July and had met its margin calls.

That message clearly changed over the weekend when Larson, who had launched the fund with great fanfare in 2004, decided the only way out was to transfer a portion of the portfolio to Citadel Investments Group, a hedge fund with roughly $14 billion in assets under management.
cnbc

Ldn 07:59 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
The $23 billion (£11.3 billion) auction for Virgin Media suffered a setback last night after it emerged that TPG, the US private equity group, has withdrawn from the battle.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/media/article2169936.ece

Gen dk 07:53 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 07:51 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Brisbane Flip 07:50 seems like it

Brisbane Flip 07:50 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 7.33
and those who already shorted Eur$ on the break averaging

Melbourne Rob 07:48 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Rumours of another Australian Hedge fund in trouble concerns over more rate hikes.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:48 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD :  As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is basically vibrating around 0.8534* with an expected magnitude of 0.8462 - 0.8606.

Lahore FM 07:35 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:31 GMT July 31, 2007
looking for an end to the eurchf dips.above 1.2060 aims for 1.2130 right away.

Syd 07:33 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
There is talk circulating of decent offers in EUR/USD between 1.3700 and 1.3730, says a trader. These offers are likely to be a combination of investors taking profits and some building new short positions. He looks for a 1.3680-1.3720 morning range, with a slight upside bias. EUR/USD now at 1.3702

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:31 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:25 GMT July 31, 2007
1.2200 possible today on usdchf.


The only problem is with EURCHF if dipped again. GL.

Syd 07:31 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Tougher lending terms for hedge funds
By Anuj Gangahar in New York

Published: July 29 2007 18:08 | Last updated: July 29 2007 18:08

Investment banks are responding to rising credit concerns by imposing tougher lending terms on hedge funds, in a move that threatens to exacerbate investor unease in the financial markets.

Prime brokerage departments at several investment banks have raised their margin requirements for certain hedge fund clients as they seek to insure themselves against the possibility of new hedge fund collapses as a result of the recent market turmoil.

Lahore FM 07:25 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
1.2200 possible today on usdchf.

Syd 07:22 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Risk Aversion Still Ticking Higher

Risk aversion remains high with the UBS index ticking up to 2.04 from 2.02 on Monday. The bank says the key drivers were a further widening in high yielder spreads versus US Treasurys and the drop in equity market volatility.

US GH 07:13 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
STG headed much lower today. The Carry trade liquidation will continue. Lond tried to buy the open and there was decent Sov offeres above 2.0300. I am almost certain we have seen the top for quite a few days now.

Lahore FM 06:54 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:03 GMT July 31, 2007
the pleasure is all mine!

Syd 06:48 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
French Jul Consumer Confidence -15 Vs Jun -12

madrid mm 06:42 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- India's central bank unexpectedly ordered lenders to set aside larger reserves for the third time in a year to remove excess money that may stoke inflation.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Yaga Venugopal Reddy will lift the cash reserve ratio, or the proportion of cash commercial banks must put aside against deposits, to 7 percent from 6.5 percent. The Mumbai-based central bank today also held its benchmark interest rate at a five-year high of 7.75 percent.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 06:42 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:28 GMT July 31, 2007
GBPJPY: Res. now at 241.50/55 selling there with tight stops for 50-70 pips profit. GL all.

If short keep stop at b/e....
GL all.

Syd 06:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Subprime woes take their toll in Germany
Last updated: July 30 2007 23:19

The fallout of the US subprime mortgage market hit the German banking sector on Monday as IKB, a specialised lender to smaller companies, and Commerzbank, the country’s second-biggest bank, warned they would be hit by losses from risky property loans.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/ff0be020-3e78-11dc-bfcf-0000779fd2ac.html

Syd 06:26 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Other funds face losses: Absolute
THE general manager of Absolute Capital's suspended investment funds yesterday warned that there were managers of other funds who were not admitting their losses from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis to investors.
Deon Joubert, who runs the Sydney-based hedge fund, says investors should expect funds that rely primarily on the same kind of debt securities to report poor results in the coming weeks, after they are forced to price their investments at the end of July.

"We haven't seen big players put out their July numbers," Mr Joubert said. "All I can say is you should watch this space
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22161634-643,00.html

madrid mm 06:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
* Outgoing IMF chief Rodrigo Rato says that the scale of US sub-prime losses is much smaller than the savings and loan crisis. Current market falls do not pose a systematic threat. Voices concerns that the risks of financial globalisation is not fully appreciated, and also the dramatic rise in private equity buy outs.

* MoF Koji Omi says world economic fundamentals are sound. Currencies should reflect fundamentals.

* Econs Prof Hiroko Ota says government to start tax reform debate as planned. End of deflation still in sight. Jobs data show the economic recovery remains firm, no change in core CPI trend.

* Japan jobless rate hitting a 9 year low of 3.7%, lowest since Feb 1998. Jobs to applicants ratio has rises to 1.07.

* Japan all household spending +0.1%y/y, wage earner household spending -0.4%y/y. Japan all household spending -0.2%m/m.

* Aust June building approvals +7.5%m/m, vs poll of +2.0%. Private sector house approvals +1.2%m/m. Private sector credit +1.8%m/m, above Reuters poll of +1.2%. While June housing credit +1.5%m/m - RBA.

* Aust Q2 business conditions index rises 3pts to 20 - NAB.

NZ Foreign Minister Winston Peters, in Reuters interview, NZD has room to fall further, NZD has 27% "to go".

* WSJ: Sowood Capital told its investors that the hedge-fund firm suffered dramatic losses of more than 50% this month and that it will wind down its two funds- becoming the most high-profile player to be cut down by the troubles roiling many parts of the bond market.

Calmer markets today, though markets still cautious of any risk aversion and unwinding of JPY carry trades.

USD/JPY rose on expectation of good month end investors and importers demand, but topside capped by good Japanese exporters/ carmakers/ US hedge funds offers at 119.30-50, capping USD/JPY to highs of 119.27, with USD/JPY dipping again in afternoon session on back of EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY selling interest.

Huge US Treasury $3.07b coupons and $25.87b redemption hitting markets today, seen weighing on Cross/JPY as well on speculation Japanese custodian, regional and agricultural trust names may sell to repatriate JPY.

EUR hit stops above 1.3710 to 1.3727, but talks of US funds selling good amount of EUR/JPY on rallies, pushing EUR/USD toward 1.37 handle again, with stoploss now below 1.3680. EUR/JPY stoploss hit below 162.80 on back of funds selling, after hitting stoploss above 163.50 in morning session to highs of 163.64.

Hearing very good 2-way in AUD today, with AUD rose on strong data, pointing to RBA hike in Aug, but hearing large French house sold a chunk, >AUD1.5-2bln above 0.86 handle, pushing it lower toward 0.8570-75, though AUD still "holding" at moment, but could collapse later. AUD/JPY back below 102 handle again on back of Cross/JPY sales.

NZD, NZD/JPY lower, as funds sold, weighed by NZ Foreign Minister Peters comments Kiwi has "27%" to go - quick calculation by good trader friend put it at 0.56 cts from current 0.77 handle. GBP/JPY now weighed by talks of Russian selling.

Nikkei -0.27% or -46.27pts at 17,243. JGBs a tad higher today, focus on BoJ. 10-yr yield -0.015% at 1.790%. September crude oil a tad lower in Asia, $76.67, -$0.16.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.78/119.27, EUR/USD 1.3692/1.3727, GBP/USD 2.0263/2.0336 USD/CHF 1.2014/1.2041, AUD/USD 0.8567/0.8616, NZD/USD 0.7666/0.7725.

Syd 06:11 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
German retail sales in June rise 0.7% on the month, fall 0.8% on the year in real, seasonally-adjusted terms, data from the Federal Statistics Office show Tuesday. The consensus forecast of 18 analysts in a Dow Jones Newswires survey was for a growth of 1.5% on the month. The statistics office revised May data downwards, to a fall of 2.5% from a preliminary decline of 1.8% on the month, and to a fall of 4.2% from a drop of 3.7% on the year

madrid mm 05:49 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Hello FX Jedi, welcome to the Pleasuredome... I meant FXdome 8+-)

Syd 05:38 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Today's Australian June building approvals data better than disappointing May result, but still subdued, Westpac economists say, noting that with impact of last year's RBA rate hikes dropping out and substantial pent-up demand lifting broader market activity, approvals have been "primed for an upturn" for some time. Activity may be starting to gain traction, though pickup happening "much more slowly" than expected

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:28 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY: Res. now at 241.50/55 selling there with tight stops for 50-70 pips profit. GL all.

perth farmer joe 05:26 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
they say the australian dollar is oversold- HAHA

5 years ago usd$100.000 = aud$209000
last week usd$100.000 = aud$112000

say u had a savings of $500 000 usd 5 years ago and had you converted it to aud 5 years ago, value of 500 000 last week = $925.000

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:24 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 05:18 GMT July 31, 2007

Frankly no idea BAY.....but I will not be surprised if we see it there.
Think we sell the rallies now.

Just keep watching the stocks market for direction. GL.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:19 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Polish MPC member Czekaj says further rate hikes likely needed - newspaper. (Reuters)

Syd 05:19 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Japan housing starts +6% on-year in June after 10.7% drop in May and vs 3.1% fall forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones; may indicate consumers looking to buy houses before possible further increases in mortgage interest rates. But data must be treated with caution as are considered relatively volatile

USA BAY 05:18 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN BAHRAIN 1,

What do you think of gbp/jpy? I have 221 as a possible target in the future. tia

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:16 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Eastern European names selling yen-crosses.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:05 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Think we buy AUDNZD now.... if any dips. GL

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:03 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 04:59 GMT July 31, 2007

Hi Lahore....
You are welcome.....All the best n good luck to you.

By the way thanks for the GREAT trades this week. GL.

Lahore FM 04:59 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
BAHRAIN Bahrain1 04:56 GMT July 31, 2007
thanx Bah,interesting piece of news.might help audcad short too as aud and nzd have some fraternal links.

London 04:57 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Has Bear Stearns finally popped the great world bubble?
Is this the 'Big One'? Is the Bear Stearns blow-up the moment when America’s subprime debacle spills over into the global credit markets and pops the greatest bubble of all time?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/ambrosevanspritchard/july07/bearstearnspoppedthebubble.htm

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 04:56 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand foreign minister says NZD has room to fall a further 27%. (Reuters)

Lahore FM 04:50 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
from gvi
Lahore FM 04:33 GMT July 31, 2007
audcad
Entry: 0.9162 Target: 0.8810 Stop: 0.9210

playing it with cad gdp data in view and on monthly chart for audcad with monthly close in view as well.shorted at 0.9162.

Sydney ACC 04:45 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Market turmoil in London and Wall Street threatens to slice almost half a percentage point off Britain's economic growth and leave a major dent in the housing market, the City has been warned.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/07/31/cnitrax131.xml

Syd 04:18 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Australia Bldg Data Not Sign Of More Activity-MBA
NZ July Confidence Reinforces View RBNZ To Pause

Syd 04:05 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
This if last week but relevant if they say more are on the Rocks....
Kim Ivey, chairman of the Australian Alternative Investment Management Association, which represents 80 of the nation's hedge fund managers, said there will be more hedge funds hurt by the subprime market.
Biggest Investors

The nation's 20 million people are the world's biggest investors per capita and Australia has the fourth-largest managed funds industry. Unlike in the U.S., where only qualified investors can place money in hedge funds, Australia allows individuals to invest in the vehicles.

Australian hedge fund managers directly controlled A$41 billion in assets as of July last year, the most in Asia, according to AsiaHedge. Assets almost tripled in the two years to June 2006 as money from compulsory pension savings, tax breaks, a new state-owned investment fund and takeovers boosted fund inflows, according to government data.

``I expect that it will be contained to just a handful,'' he said. ``More of a concern is what will happen once the fallout moves from the subprime sector to more senior debt, when many more managers have exposure.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azvgwcjI68wk&refer=home

Lahore FM 03:40 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
sold eurusd 1.3720,mind stops at 60.target open.

Lahore FM 03:39 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
closed all at 2.0232 for 97 pips in all.

Ldn 03:38 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
CDS report: "It's a very brave man or woman who calls the end to this"


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/07/30/6213/cds-report-its-a-very-brave-man-or-woman-who-calls-the-end-to-this/

Lahore FM 03:32 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:01 GMT July 27, 2007
long again audusd,0.8581.stopless for now.
---
closed half at 0.8604.stops placed at 0.8560 for half.

Ldn 03:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Wall Street sell-off

It has been the mother of all sell-offs. Wall Street’s main players have seen a collective $75bn – some 10 per cent – in market capitalisation evaporate over the past three weeks. One worry is their exposure to leveraged buy-outs. As debt investors reject LBO bonds and loans, broker-dealers risk getting stuck with funding the deals they have committed to, with potential markdowns. Fees from private equity could falter as dealmaking slows.

How bad could the write-downs be? Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley have recently released their quarterly filings, detailing their commitments to non-investment grade companies. The total is awesome: above $150bn
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/769becc4-3e0c-11dc-8f6a-0000779fd2ac,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F769becc4-3e0c-11dc-8f6a-0000779fd2ac.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Fuk

Lahore FM 03:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
bbsapul 03:14 GMT July 31, 2007
thanx bbsapul!it was a lucky one.

bbsapul 03:14 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
fm :
nice one on gbp /usd

Ldn 03:13 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Bonds Head for Big Trouble? 31 Jul 2007 01:30 GMT
... of risk, particularly for investors, such as hedge funds, that have borrowed heavily to magnify bets ... based on everything from corporate accounts-receivable to subprime mortgages to unpaid credit card debts.
http://finance.einnews.com/news/hedge-funds-subprime-mortgages

Lahore FM 03:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
closed gbpchf long from a while back,entry 2.4350,1/2 at 2.4440 for 90 pips.

Lahore FM 03:11 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
closed 2.0235 long in part at 2.0326 for 91 pips.

Syd 03:08 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Amid Risk Aversion, UBS Says To Short EUR Given risk aversion currently in markets, UBS thinks investors should be shorting EUR; tips EUR/USD at 1.3500 in a month, at 1.3200 in 3 months. Still, describes a "status quo scenario" for USD in which markets recover, oil prices remain high, global growth stays strong but U.S. economy continues to underperform for rest of year; says if markets revert to this scenario, which it says favored by consensus, then EUR/USD will break out of current 1.3250-1.3850 range to upside. EUR/USD last 1.3711.

Syd 03:02 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
New-home sales fall by 12pc
| July 31, 2007

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22161433-643,00.html

london cg 03:00 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
just short the yen, japanese economy numbers of next month will be awful with all these markets and politicals turmoils and BOJ will stay on hold. Short, short, short....

Rye, NY et 02:57 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
The face of the subprime crisis in the US...as per Mary Ann Hurley at D.A. Davidson:
"RealtyTrac said in a report today that home foreclosure filings rose 58% in the first six months of the year vs. the same period a year ago, and a 30% increase from the previous period. The foreclosure rate was one foreclosure filing for every 134 U.S. households. RealtyTrac stated the trend is likely to increase by the end of the year. California had the most filings and Nevada had the highest rate (one for every 40 households)"

Wellington, N.Z. 02:45 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for TUESDAY - JULY 31st:


My favored FX Trade for Today is GBP/USD

To request a Trial of my FX Service

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Max McKegg/TRL

Syd 02:34 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said Tuesday that dollar/yen rates should reflect economic fundamentals and that overall global economic fundamentals remain sound.

"The foreign exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals, as I have said many times, and the global economic fundamentals are good," Omi told a regular press conference when asked about dollar/yen moves after Japan's Upper House elections on Sunday.

Syd 01:22 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Spot gold trading in line with yen carry trade leaves gold vulnerable to further unwinding in light of higher levels of risk aversion among investors On plus side, even though credit concerns may pressure financial markets for foreseeable future and negatively impact gold prices, physical demand in at least one area rising; Saudi Arabian gold sales up nearly 17% in volume in 2Q, says World Gold Council.

Syd 01:15 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Market interest rate-implied odds that BOJ will tighten policy on Aug 23 back above 50%, at 51% compared with 47% yesterday, perhaps reflecting mildly bullish Japan jobless, household spending data this morning, Credit Suisse survey shows; adds to Nikkei Quick survey yesterday showing 61% of BOJ watchers it surveyed after Upper House elections expects central bank to raise overnight call rate to 0.75% from 0.5% next month

Syd 01:11 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
China shares may fall back after yesterday's large gains with Shanghai Composite Index likely to find support above 5-day moving average of 4333, given good corporate earnings outlook; index yesterday gained 2.2% for record close of 4440.77. May be some impact on bank shares (could fall 2-3%) from PBOC's latest reserve requirement ratio hike which aimed at curbing lending; "this will hurt confidence though it's not aimed at the stock market," says Zhu Haibin at Essence Securities. Still, move was well expected and RRR hike in itself is mild tightening measure. Shenzhen Index +2.3% at 1274.93 yesterday

Syd 01:08 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:04 Looks that way but still skeptical about it , will be great disappointment if they dont and give the same chatter of the RBNZ hikes are nearing an end , with the Hedge Funds here on the blink they will be treading a dangerous path . Especially with the Australian report many more not yet come forward.

Sydney ACC 01:04 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:17 GMT July 31, 2007
Comments that the carry-trade is alive and well could be a bit premature. Although Cable, AUD and NZD for the better part of this morning have been well bid.
Prefer to sit this out although I do have a long AUD/GBP position accumulated in London last night. Maybe that is the way to go seems like the majority of the markete economists are prediciting a rate rise so Aussie will remain bid on that. Volumes being traded are thin, market is skittish so volatility remains high while traders are reluctant to hold positions.

Syd 00:57 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
IMF's Rato: China Needs More FX Flexibility

Syd 00:50 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Traders say this afternoon's National Bank of NZ's July business confidence main risk event for local currency, which slumped nearly 7% in 3 days before current modest recovery; NZD/USD still well below 0.8110 peak tapped last week, NZD/JPY also down from 20-year peak of 97.77. Consensus is NZD will remain vulnerable to further losses if confidence data support growing view RBNZ may be at end of hike cycle.

Syd 00:48 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:45 GMT your a wealth of knowledge , again very much appreciated.

Sydney ACC 00:45 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd re the Uridashi's.
there was one interesting piece regarding AUD Uridashis for 2007. For every month this year redemptions exceeded new issues except in March. In most cases redemptions were twice the amount of new issues. In total new issues were AUD 5.8 billion, Redemptions AUD 10.1 billion.
I can only presume that the banks have manufactured an synthetic forward that provides periodical coupons and capital gain.

Syd 00:42 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
UBS Have gone short Euro/Dlr says USD shorts stretched says can rally and short Euro/Dlr as recommended

Syd 00:30 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo Rato raised concerns about rapid growth in the number of large private equity buyouts, particularly those financed by debt, in a speech to business leaders in the Philippines.

Rato urged regulators to watch these buyout deals closely, particularly when their failure would have wide-ranging consequences for financial markets.

"If some of these deals were to turn sour, it could trigger a reappraisal of risk which would curtail market access more broadly," Rato said in remarks prepared for delivery Tuesday in Manila.

"This, in turn, could adversely affect investment and growth prospects, not just in the countries where the problems occur, but worldwide," Rato said.

These and other risks associated with financial globalization still may not be fully appreciated, Rato said. As one example, he cited recent woes in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. Borrowers and investors put too much confidence in rising home prices, he said, while paying too little attention to credit risk.

Syd 00:25 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Japan June Household Spending Not A Worry-Mizuho


Japan June all household spending at +0.1% on-year, slightly weaker than expected but still in positive territory, not a cause for worry, says Mizuho Research Institute senior economist Yasuo Yamamoto. Department store sales strong in June pushing spending up, but "the rise in residential taxes is putting downward pressure on spending"; overall data "neither very good, nor very bad," he says.(

Syd 00:17 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:15 GMTmuch appreciated that thanks
whats your view on aud today ?

Sydney ACC 00:15 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd
Total August 2007 maturities for AUD Uridashi bonds are A$1.4bn. The trend in recent months has been AUD bond issuance of only $A0.6-0.9bn per month. If this trend continues we can expect that in August 2007 that net issuance will be negative (and that the key maturity on 23 August of $A1bn won't be rolled over or matched by fresh issuance).

However, in the past when RBA rate-hike speculation has been rife - such as in February 2007 and in Q4 2006 - AUD Uridashi bond issuance has picked up considerably (to $A1.2bn - $A1.6bn). With the chance for a rate hike from the RBA in August now quite high, it is possible issuance in AUD terms will pick up.

For NZD Uridashi bonds, the total for August is very high at NZ$2.4bn. NZD Uridashi bond issuance has never been this high in any single month since October 2003.

Further, the RBNZ has signalled yesterday that rates are likely at a peak and that the level of the NZD is unsustainable. Remember that Japanese buyers of Uridashi bonds are concerned with interest rate returns and currency returns. So while it may be 'possible' that AUD Uridashi bond issuance matches AUD Uridashi bond maturities in August - it is unlikely to be the case for NZD Uridashi bonds.

Source:CBA

Syd 00:12 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
China government bonds likely to open mildly lower on knee-jerk selling, after PBOC says late yesterday to raise banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps from August 15. Shanghai stock exchange bond index may drop into 111.80-111.90 band vs 111.98 last close, says an Orient Securities analyst. But market tipped to recover after 2-3 sessions, repeating pattern after previous hikes. Analysts note ratio hike, 6th this year, will freeze about CNY180 billion in funds, won't have much effect on ample liquidity

Philadelphia Caba 00:03 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Goldman Opens A Long EUR/JPY Trade
[Dow Jones] With equity markets showing tentative signs of stabilization, declining fears of contagion from credit sell off, risker assets may start to perform better again, says Goldman Sachs; "this would likely extend to FX carry strategies, which look much more attractive after last week's correction." Risks now skewed toward renewed carry trades, some unwinding of yen's recent gains; house thus takes profit on long yen exposure in Asian short USD basket, adds long EUR/JPY trade in expectation of renewed yen underperformance in G10 space (has stop on a close below 161).

Philadelphia Caba 00:02 GMT July 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:55 GMT

Money from aud redemption can (but will be??) be easily (?) re-invested in carry again, no?

Maybe to early to say but looks like carry are back in full(?)
gt/gl!

 




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