Forex Forum Archive for 08/1/2007

UK Alex 23:59 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Did anyone mention that all the major automakers sales were down y/y for the month of July and you can probably guess what they were blaming for the downturn.

Syd 23:58 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: EUR/USD May Fall To 1.3650; ECB Awaited

USA Zeus 23:57 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:33 GMT March 12, 2007
UK Alex 15:27 GMT March 12, 2007

You'll soon hear about how this has already rolled up the ladder into the ALT-A segment to the "No Documentation", "Stated", "No ratio" loans with high CLTV's for 2nd homes, investment properties and some primary residences. Many of these loans are non-performing now and will be shipped back to the funders. This will hit their books for back adjusted earnings going back a couple of quarters.

USA Zeus 20:35 GMT March 9, 2007
Livingston nh 20:27 GMT March 9, 2007

Not fighting the forces here. Just saying that the problem was not somehow a one week blip in the mortgage world. The mortgage business had a major shift. In fact I think the sub prime issue is still in its infancy but a greater problem looms in the ALT-A business which dwarfs sub prime. No ddomsdayer here just find it odd how this is suddenly made it on the radar screen. The problem has been created for a few years and we are just now hearing about. And please do keep in mind that the mortgage professionals are not financial geniuses so their device is even more flawed than that of LTCM all IMO of course.
____________________________________________________
Now we are here and the market is paying the piper. More importantly what comes next after losses are booked on ultimatum Q3.

They keep missing it and we keep crushing it.

LOL

Syd 23:49 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
More scalps for mortgage belt

Signs that the crisis in the US subprime mortgage market is spreading to higher-quality mortgage loans contributed to a dramatic sell-off in credit and equity markets this week, as lenders reported significantly lower second-quarter earnings and investors ran aground on mortgage-related losses.

The latest bout of mortgage market malaise centres on so-called “Alt-A” home loans, in which late payments and defaults are running at four times the historical rate.

IndyMac Bancorp, one of the US largest independent home lenders and one of the largest Alt-A lenders, posted a 57 per cent drop in second-quarter profit as the volume of soured loans more than quadrupled
Soaring default and foreclosure rates are not limited to subprime and Alt-A mortgages. Countrywide – the largest mortgage lender in the US – admitted last week that the same goes for prime home loans. This has triggered the most aggressive tightening of mortgage lending standards on record.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2d8c43fa-4067-11dc-9d0c-0000779fd2ac.html

Syd 23:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC, I agree thats the big problem , all the M&As that have been flying around , they are looking twice at who they can trust which is nobody ... Yesterday I was talking to someone said that a financial advisor told him not to buy a property in 2002 instead the advisor said I can invest it to give you a nice little income, what happened he lost half on the equity drop and then didnt have enough to buy a house, these people just walk away when they censored-up peoples lives

By November banks in London will be feeling the pressure as deals dry up. The City is going to suffer and with it the UK economy. I

USA Zeus 23:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
builer = builder

USA Zeus 23:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Zeus and co. Should have contracts completed tomorrow for new mortgage company. The field is green and getting greener and this time around the capture ratio for builer relationships will be even higher.

dc CB 23:35 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:21 GMT August 1, 2007

it's OK MAN buy stox now, it's the bottom, I ASSURE YOU!

Buy those homebuilders, those mortgage brokers. It's OK, it's really OK
thanks.
Bear Stearns

Sydney ACC 23:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:15 GMT August 1, 2007
Syd that is a very good report. It identifies the type of assets Macquarie had purchased on behalf of their clients. That it consisted of securities issued by private-equity institutions should in itself ring alarm bells. That these securities were regarded as secured yet on a mark-to-market basis they have lost 25% of their value should send a shrill warning to investors.
The other point the writer makes is that due to strength of the global economy analysts believe that the problem can be contained to financial markets. Baloney! The markets service industry. Risk margins are increasing which will mean many projects will not get off the ground because of increased CAPM considerations.
Ramifications of this turmoil will be felt months down the track. By November banks in London will be feeling the pressure as deals dry up. The City is going to suffer and with it the UK economy. I am sure this will be on the minds of the MPC mebers when they meet tonight.

Syd 23:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex I had a friend who worked for beazer.co.uk , if they are anything like them in the US built in the lower price bracket , so would be affected by the subprime trouble would imagine

Syd 23:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Bankruptcy Buzz Bugs Beazer
Shares fell sharply Wednesday amid rumors the homebuilder would file, which it called "scurrilous and unfounded"
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/aug2007/pi2007081_728991.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_investing

Gen dk 23:27 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 23:27 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd, that statement they put out for the media (sorry, serious investors) was hardly a strong denial - now was it?

Syd 23:25 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:21 GMT course they will deny it do a google search they have been in trouble for the last few months

UK Alex 23:21 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
I wonder whether those rumours about Beazer losing one of its credit lines are just rumours. Hmmm, now let me think.

Syd 23:15 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Liquidity alarm bells sound
By Paul J Davies, Gillian Tett, Joanna Chung and Stacy-Marie Ishmael
August 1 2007 21:57

When an ordinary sounding Australian mutual fund run by Macquarie Bank’s asset management division warned investors they could lose up to 25 per cent of their money this week it was shocking for two reasons.

First, it was a retail fund, so the investors were everyday people. Second, their money had not been anywhere near US subprime mortgages, which have been at the centre of recent market turmoil.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2555f186-4067-11dc-9d0c-0000779fd2ac.html

UK Alex 23:13 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Mutual funds have been busy today - wonder whether they've been on the telephone too?

Syd 23:11 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Credit market contagion
The subprime virus has gone global. Starting as a localised outbreak in the US market for risky subprime mortgages, it has spread into the supposedly safer “Alt-A” tier and even into prime mortgages. Meanwhile, it has crossed into other loan species – particularly leveraged lending, where ballooning spreads have rattled the market and left banks holding big chunks of debt. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/9d568af4-405a-11dc-9d0c-0000779fd2ac.html

Syd 23:10 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Germany rescues subprime lender
The German government has pulled together a rescue operation – drawing in all three pillars of the country’s banking system – to shore up Europe’s first major casualty of the subprime crisis.Mounting fears of massive mark-to-market losses by hedge funds stemming from investments in the subprime and the so-called “Alt-A” mortgage sector – in between prime and subprime – are fuelling wild price swings across all markets.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/46fe1d80-4063-11dc-9d0c-0000779fd2ac.html

Syd 23:07 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Macquarie Bank it doesn't have direct exposure to the funds but the share price fell on expectations that the bank's reputation could be hurt by developments at Fortress.

Lucas defended comments made by Macquarie Bank Chief Executive Allan Moss in July that Macquarie Bank doesn't have an exposure to U.S. subprime mortgages and that a widening in credit yield spreads at that time would have little impact on Macquarie. "Allan's statement was that we had no meaningful exposure," he said.

He also said that the losses incurred by the Fortress funds are so far "substantially unrealized" and that he expects that "the companies that we lent money to will repay their interest obligations when they're due and the principal when it's due."

"A run by investors on redemptions would simply mean that we need to sell some of the loans in the portfolio and there is liquidity in the loan market, we can sell loans, albeit we're selling them at (levels) that reflect less than 100 cents in the dollar," he said.

If investors in Fortress "wish to redeem at these levels and actually realize the loss, then they're free to," Lucas said
DJ

Sydney ACC 23:05 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Analysts speculated that automatic, computer-generated trades might have played a role in the rally. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist with Standard & Poor’s, said trading programs may have kicked in once it appeared stocks were not headed considerably lower.

“That could present a buy opportunity,” he said, noting that trading programs have also helped accelerate the market’s decline recently. “What the technicals taketh away, they can give back.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/01/business/01cnd-stox.html?ref=business

Sydney ACC 23:03 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Detroit lost its leadership of the American automobile market for the first time ever in July, when import nameplates outsold the three American companies in a dismal month for auto sales.

The traditional American brands owned by General Motors, the Ford Motor Company and the Chrysler Group held 48.1 percent of the market in July, according to a preliminary estimate by Autodata Inc., an industry statistics firm in Woodcliff Lake, N.J.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/01/business/01cnd-auto.html?ref=business

dc CB 22:58 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:31 GMT August 1, 2007
dc CB 21:24 GMT August 1, 2007
i have often thought about it since you mentioned it

to quote Marlin Brando: I cudda been a contenda!

go for it FM

Syd 22:40 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton have both strengthened their leads in the Republican and Democratic presidential nomination races, according to a new Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll.

Syd 22:39 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Volatility In Global FX Trade To Remain High -BBH Volatility in FX trade likely to remain high "as fear and nervousness continue to permeate the markets", say Brown Brothers Harriman FX strategists. Think bias is for yen to strengthen further in the event of further unwinding of positions tied to subprime losses materialize. For now, BBH tips USD/JPY to track 118.20-119.50 range, last 119.11, EUR/USD 1.3630-1.3730, last 1.3679.

del pk 22:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
can anyone suggest the best currency to go long against yen

Syd 22:27 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
With U.S. soft landing of moderate growth and cooling inflation still the likeliest scenario, Fed shouldn't consider cutting rates unless economy slows rapidly, says IMF; comes as rate futures markets look for Fed easing as soon as end-year. Still, tenor of report suggests IMF sees more balance between U.S. economic growth and inflation risks, whereas Fed has repeatedly said inflation is main concern.

Syd 22:26 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 22:18 GMT Some in Market saying they should come out now and declare their problems instead of the slow drip we are seeing, if rates do rise here could cause more pain

dc CB 22:18 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:47 GMT August 1, 2007
Paul Tudor Jones

in fact I think he learned trading Cotton futures

Syd 22:13 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Financial markets scaling back risk of RBA rate hike next week after Australia June trade deficit widens more sharply than economists expected, ABS data showed monthly deficit of A$1.75 billion vs analysts' expectations A$1.05 billion. That, combined with fall in 2Q retail sales in chain volume terms, has caused markets to downwardly-revise pricing around risk of 25-bps hike to 6.50% Aug. 8 to around 65% from 85% pre-data. Adds investors "rather dovish", market "vulnerable to any softer hue" to data ahead of RBA review,

dc CB 22:12 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:47 GMT August 1, 2007
Two huge hedge funds run by Paul Tudor Jones's Tudor Investment Corp

Tudor is a well known futures player, so this will not effect the markets in the way the House of Bear's fund's failures triggered a mini-crash. He was born to lose/win...

USA Zeus 21:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Yes daily range volatility to return to normal levels finally.

Makassar Alimin 21:48 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 21:43 GMT August 1, 2007

Thanks Dennis, appreciate the prompt reply, good trades

Syd 21:47 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Two huge hedge funds run by Paul Tudor Jones's Tudor Investment Corp., which manages more than $20 billion, suffered sizable losses in July.
The Raptor Fund, a $9 billion hedge fund run by James Pallotta in Boston, dropped 9% in the month, and is down almost 3% so far in 2007, investors who have seen the data said Wednesday. The fund that Jones runs in Greenwich, Conn., the $10.3 billion Tudor BVI Fund, lost just over 3% through July 27, although it is up 4.6% for the year.

The losses are surprising because both managers have among the best track records in the hedge-fund world. Some investors said the results were disappointing, but noted that Jones has scored an average annual return of over 24% since launching his fund in 1986, while Pallotta has generated gains of over 19% since 1993.
Investors have been waiting to see how hedge funds fared in July, a difficult month in various markets that saw $3 billion hedge fund Sowood Capital collapse after losing more than 50% of its assets.
WSJ

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:44 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
on Daily EURJPY & GBPJPY:
- I was looking the 200 day MA which held the drop in March;

this time it looks the dip was a bit shallower and followed at present by a consolidation -- given the US equities snap back in + territory we might have seen the low of the current phase

>> I wonder since we saw a drop in Feb and a correction in recent weeks - - the market quity easy overcomes bad news and goes back to bullish mode...
-- if now we go back to new highs then what you people think the Third correction will look like?

I know too many bad scenarios were posted here all year - but if adverse market reaction was escaped twice - then is it possible to see an Autumn - like in 1987 or 1998 (LTCM)?

Syd 21:43 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Raptor Fund Drops 9%, Tudor BVI Fund Down 3% In July

Bon Air VA Dennis 21:43 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 21:22 GMT

VTY = daily range volatility. I use to assess relative position weighting among other things.

Syd 21:42 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
WSJ: Tudor Hedge Funds Hit Problems

Lahore FM 21:40 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long eurcad 1.4444,stopless for now.

London 21:38 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/08/01/6273/keeping-count-of-the-credit-hedge-victims/

We need to start a tally. Perhaps the Mortgage Lender Implode-o-Meter should diversify, to track the effects of failed lending practises through the financial system

Lahore FM 21:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 21:24 GMT August 1, 2007
i have often thought about it since you mentioned it first.i am on the other extreme where i find it my foremost right to act on what i think of as a real trade and always trigger ready to enter asap.

Syd 21:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Share rout lops $60bn
THE biggest share market collapse since the September 2001 terrorist attacks yesterday carved $60 billion off the value of Australian stocks as the US mortgage crisis claimed another hedge fund and sent shares of the nation's premier investment bank into freefall.
australian

dc CB 21:24 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:08 GMT August 1, 2007
procrastination

the bain of my current existance!

Syd 21:24 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
FX displays nerves on news of a US home builder troubles
4cast

Makassar Alimin 21:22 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis, what is meant by 'Vty' in your projection blog? Thanks

Lahore FM 21:08 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 21:05 GMT August 1, 2007
yep you have complained of your procrastination at such occasions earlier too.about time it changed!

dc CB 21:05 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:51 GMT August 1, 2007
dc CB 20:47 GMT August 1, 2007
CB,all well?
yes, thanks. Took off my shorts before I went to bed last night.
But me thinks it's time to take a vacation...was staring at 13200 on the Dow futures for a 1/2 hour this afternoon, knowing I should Push the Buy Button...but poured a glass of wine instead. Cost me 200 pts not made :(

Lahore FM 20:51 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 20:47 GMT August 1, 2007
CB,all well?i have learnt quite a few things from you over years.thanx!

Makassar Alimin 20:49 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
nice work by jpy sellers, a revenge of what was done yesterday late NY, asian session will continue and take it to 119.50

dc CB 20:47 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
CarryOn back On........go FM
150pts in 20 mins.

U.S. Stocks Rally, Erasing Loss; Dow Average Gains 150 Points
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=a59hx.p2Vyzk&refer=stocks

Gen dk 20:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cali mmm 20:19 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Ok thank you FM.

dc CB 20:13 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
So today were going to visit Mr. Fund Manager. Can you say Hedge Fund. That's good.

Hi there Mr. Fund Manager. My friends and I have come to see what you do in your job.

Mr. Fund Manager has a hard job, but it's also lot's of fun.

He get's to spend money that a whole lot of people send to him, just so he can spend it for them. I know you think that's funny, but some people have so much money that they have a really hard time finding ways to spend it.

Every month Mr. Fund Manager finds piles of money delivered right to his door.

Do you like to spend money. I sure do. It's fun.

But that's not even the best part. Mr. Fund Manager also gets to keep some of that money and call it his own. Isn't that great. Would you like to be a Fund Manager when you grow up? Can you say Push the Buy Button?

Lahore FM 20:12 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 20:09 GMT August 1, 2007
FM, after Dow close up, can you please share your bias/target for GBPJPY ?
--
buy 240.80 with suitable stop for 243.60.244.00.

Cali mmm 20:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
FM, after Dow close up, can you please share your bias/target for GBPJPY ?

GVI john 20:08 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI

Lahore FM 19:58 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Dow 13,386.76 + 174.77
NASDAQ 2,555.44 + 9.17
S&P 1,468.38 + 13.11

Lahore FM 19:57 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:18 GMT August 1, 2007
long nzdusd 0.7597,stops later.

--------
closed 1/3rd at 0.7628 for 31 pips.

Syd 19:51 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD opens higher just below 0.7600 vs yesterday's local close at 0.7566, but off overnight high of 0.7656; ANZ senior dealer Alex Sinton says Kiwi's move higher was "a general dollar move," but sellers then came into market due to Wall Street turning lower; "I think we will be capped today, I'd be surprised if we see last night's high of 0.7656. I wouldn't be surprised if we have a further test on the downside, testing support around that 0.7570-80 level," says Sinton.

Lahore FM 19:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
carry likely to kick in.

Syd 19:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
More Reckoning Due As Hedge Funds Mark To Market

"Hedge funds' mishaps have been in the headlines. Unfortunately, investors should probably brace for more to come," says Merrill strategist Richard Bernstein. With month-end marks-to-market made on many fund holdings, it's likely "many hedge funds will be shocked by how low their marks are," he says. "The combination of a down market and liquidity drying up in many debt instruments is likely to make many intra-month evaluations now appear quite rosy." Bernstein adds: "Short-term investors in other overvalued speculative assets, like commodities and emerging markets, should learn from the current mishaps in the debt markets. Supposedly liquid securities can rapidly become illiquid."

Syd 19:38 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Sub-prime lending ends in tears
AT the height of the lending frenzy in the US's sub-prime mortgage market, borrowers could get what were known as ninja loans - no income, no job, no assets.
When markets depart this far from prudent lending practice, financial disaster isn't far away, and it has arrived big time for highly leveraged sub-prime mortgage lenders and investors in the securities they issued.
But the issue now isn't the sub-prime market itself, but how far through the financial system the tremors from the earthquake in sub-prime lending will spread.
The plunge on Wall Street and the 3 per cent dive in Australian shares yesterday are high-profile signals of the spread of the sub-prime train wreck through US markets and across the Pacific to Australia.
Markets throughout the region suffered similar declines.
But this is the tip of the iceberg, The real problems are in credit markets, where liquidity has rapidly dried up, both for leveraged buyouts by private equity players and the hedge funds and others, who are seeing the value of their assets going down the gurgler.

Lahore FM 19:18 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long nzdusd 0.7597,stops later.

Bon Air VA Dennis 19:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
geneva 18:48 GMT

it's called Zeus' "crusher trade magic" lol

dc CB 18:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Carry trade?

NYSE 850+/- stocks up
2380 +/- down

geneva 18:48 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:26 GMT August 1, 2007

How 1.0310 the low was 1.0340?

hk ab 18:10 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
dreamt a target of aud to be 8225..... GL all.

hk ab 18:10 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Alimin, I just noticed that all j's crosses, including u/j, have not shrugged off the bearishnesss yet.....

Housewives may be encouraged to hedge by shorting large amt u/j and a/j. Not until then, we still have some rooms before the reversal.

Makassar Alimin 18:03 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
the hosewives won't do the same mistake this time, they will guard usdjpy's low with all their might, stoxx could also be basing here, too early of course but there are some signs

london cg 17:51 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
looks like usdjpy wants to go higher anyway... just looking for an excuse to go long....housewives are winning the battle?

PAR 17:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Whenever on CNBC they talk about unwinding of carry trades do the opposite . Buying GBPJPY this morning was fantastic .

dc CB 17:44 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Beazer offered the following media statement: "We have become aware of rumors circulating in the market about Beazer Homes' liquidity and a prospective bankruptcy filing. We do not know where these scurrilous and unfounded rumors started.

NYC 17:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Good call -- Geneva 16:31 GMT August 1, 2007

del 17:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
FM, stocks still vunerable. do you still see short yen?

Lahore FM 17:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
still looking up though.might enter here just now.

Lahore FM 17:28 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
162.42 long eurjpy stopped at 161.90.

USA Zeus 17:24 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Funny how so many so called "experts" thought the mortgage problem was a "one and done" back in the day of the New Century implosion. But we knew better.
LOL

USA Zeus 17:13 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Crushing it all over as we duscussed.
LOL

London NYAM 17:08 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Have a good trading day GV. GN

London NYAM 17:07 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
out of gbpjpy long at 242.60 break of 2420.65 suggests a deeper move. (-17pips x2)

Ldn 17:03 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/will-the-banks-go-bust-in-a-property-slump-1042325.html

London NYAM 16:54 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
del 16:47// think these quiet tight ranges are the way of knocking out traders (like me) who were sucked into the lovely large swings. Trying to get back into 1st gear.

del 16:47 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
this long yen move in the last 25 mins a bit frustrating. long eur/jpy 16210 s/l 16185

UK Alex 16:38 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
http://www.informationarbitrage.com/2007/07/sowood-so-long-.html

Geneva 16:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Nice move in Crudeoil, CAD should follow!

Geneva 16:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Nice move in Crudeoil, CAD should follow!

dc CB 16:30 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
excerpt from briefing.com Bond Watch

The market is ripe with rumor as players talk about huge, huge shops liquidating "stuff, unloading enormous amounts of bunds" unwinding dollar/yen positions in order to have some liquidity & be positioned to pick-up exploding hedge-funds. They are not in a position to pick-up anything "high-end," but to "Hoover-up some small guys," & look like heroes, even as their stock is down "20 to 21%" on the year.

London 16:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Oddo & Cie, a French stockbroker and money manager, plans to close three funds totaling 1 billion euros ($1.37 billion), citing the ``unprecedented'' crisis in the U.S. asset-backed securities market.

Oddo said it will wind down the funds within the ``shortest possible time frame'' because of a plunge in prices for collateralized debt obligations, notes backed by other bonds, loans and their derivatives
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akF7dNjlTajI&refer=home

London NYAM 16:21 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:06 GMT August 1, 2007// seem to be obsessed with 242 maybe its the resolution.
should read 240.xx average now 240.77 for 2/3 pos
low of 240.62 needs to hold for this to breakout. similar story on equities. imho

UK Alex 16:06 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Oddo, the French stockbroker, is to shut three funds totalling €1bn citing the “sudden and unprecedented crisis,” in US asset-backed securities market.

London NYAM 16:06 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
guess it did after all bought second 1/3 pos at 242.68 last if we trapse down again stops mental and below 242.30

London NYAM 15:59 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
FM Cable should kick it up a notch from here.

Lahore FM 15:57 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
if it keeps above 2.0260/70**.

London NYAM 15:56 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
bought back half of gbpjpy at 240.87 really thought wed see Lahores 24260 target zone but this puppy looks cooked. up we go

dc CB 15:56 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Re: BZH, Beazer Homes. Rumors about an hour ago that the company would go belly up knocked it down 21% and took home building stocks down with it. All have since recovered most of losses as company is defended by Goldman.

It's a minefield out there and I'm sure the Big Brokerages will jump in to defend. Their stocks are down enough as it is without a "panic".

Lahore FM 15:55 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
bsapul,quite a tentative entry,targets around 2.0420 but will have to see next hour or two if it keeps above 2.0360/70.

bbsapul 15:52 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm:
always great call :)

whats ur target on gbp/usd long ?

Lahore FM 15:51 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
reuters and knight ridder folks i guess provide them in chart format.the vols i mean.

london bob 15:48 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
where to get implied vol for majors to be better armored for option trading - TIA

Syd 15:47 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Beazer Caught Between Rumors And Charybdis
BZH down about 17%, was down more than 40% earlier

Lahore FM 15:36 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long eurjpy 162.43,stops at 161.90.rigid.

Lahore FM 15:34 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Tim,that's my general feeling on the pair but lots cooking in so many fx pairs.it is best to now try getting in with a long if it trades above 1.2050 for an hour to four hours.

NY tim 15:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore F, do you think USD/CF is still byu? - TIA

Lahore FM 15:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
It's not true I had nothing on, I had the radio on.


Marilyn Monroe

Cali mmm 15:28 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Ok I see FM. Thank you for your help.

Lahore FM 15:27 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
lol...i have given the parametres.guess might take a few hour developing.keep an eye on usdjpy over next few hours 118.68 pivotal for the upmove on usjpy and gbpjpy.

Cali mmm 15:23 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
So your bias is a strong up for this pair?

Lahore FM 15:23 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
buying dips to 240.40/60 can be strategy.

Lahore FM 15:21 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
mmm,it looks ready for for 243.60/244.00.240.05 stops.

London NYAM 15:19 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
equity bounce may fave finally begun

Cali mmm 15:18 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Ok FM. TKS.

Lahore FM 15:16 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
mmm,haven;t looked at it since closing shorts.will check in a short while.

London NYAM 15:15 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
out for half at 240.90 +45 p

Cali mmm 15:15 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi FM. Any targe bias for GBPJPY short term? TKS!

Syd 15:15 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
May be the next in line to get wacked trouble going back a month
Building Woes for Beazer
The ouster of its accounting officer "suggests there could be corporate involvement" in a lending scandal, according to one analyst http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jun2007/pi20070628_383608.htm

Lahore FM 15:11 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
flat on usdchf for loss of a few pips.will see about it later.

HK Kevin 15:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Marseille AB 15:05 GMT, the link "GVI Forex Bolg" is at the left hand of the column below

Lahore FM 15:06 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long 2.0297,stops tentative at 50.

Marseille AB 15:05 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis, ok thanks alot.
could you link me the adresse i cant find it

London NYAM 15:03 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long 1/3 pos GBP/JPY 240.45 no stops

Syd 14:58 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Beazer Homes posts loss after charges
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Beazer Homes USA Inc., facing a deteriorating U.S. housing market and federal investigations into lending practices, posted a quarterly loss Thursday as the builder took charges for inventory and goodwill impairments and abandonment of land option contracts. New orders for homes fell 30 percent in the quarter to 3,055.Inventory, abandonment of land options cost the homebuilder as third-quarter revenue tumbles 37%.

London Cam 14:56 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
FM. that would be 21:00 GMT!!!!

Lahore FM 14:52 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
August 1st 17:00 New York time



----------
what time GMT would this be?trying to figure from a mail.

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Marseille AB 14:17 GMT

I usually post a summery of range projections each day on the GVI Forex Blog.

Click on the TOOLS link above and it will take you there.

USA Zeus 14:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:45 GMT July 31, 2007
Looks like the market is all set for a new round of explosive volatility in all asset (and debt) classes.

Be cool.


Happy Day!

Lahore FM 14:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 05:15 GMT August 1, 2007


Lahore FM 04:33 GMT July 31, 2007
audcad
Entry: 0.9162 Target: 0.8810 Stop: 0.9210

playing it with cad gdp data in view and on monthly chart for audcad with monthly close in view as well.shorted at 0.9162.

---

closed 1/3rd at 0.9070 for 92 pips.stops to entry for 2/3rds.

--
closed another 1/3rd at 0.9017 for 145 pips cumulative.

UK Alex 14:32 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:29 GMT August 1, 2007
Yes, firstly how much support has this given to equities and secondly will it continue at the same pace for the rest of the year. I think the answer to the second question is a resounding no.

Syd 14:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Poland and Germany remained stoic Wednesday in the face of a Russian threat to cut gas supplies to Belarus on August 3 in a dispute over unpaid bills.

"We can't accept suggestions that our supplies could suffer due to a dispute between Gazprom and Belarus," Polish Economy Minister Piotr Wozniak told a news briefing Wednesday
http://www.gazprom.com/eng/news/2007/08/24810.shtml

Geneva 14:30 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
oil in th way to 80$ that will hurt!!!. the world in a mess.

Mtl JP 14:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Alex 14:27 / so.. any thoughts ?

madrid mm 14:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the American economy can weather losses from subprime mortgages ....

Maybe he got a call from his past colleagues from GS and the Chinese investors " Paul, please do say something positive about the market."

LOL, funny world really !!! 8+-)

London 14:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
The sooner Japan keeps its saving at home the sooner the economy will pick up

UK Alex 14:27 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Food for thought:

Roughly $320 billion of share buybacks have been announced so far this year. That's a record pace and is already close to topping last year's record pace of $365 billion in repurchase announcements, according to Thomson Financial.

UK Alex 14:23 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
That's all very well OilMan, but I think the BOJ is still long $/yen.

Monaco Oil man 14:21 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Joining the crowd is usually a bad idea..
CHF should strengthen across the board (Like JPY)...
Part of something i posted on GVI..
Back in a few hours.

GT.


Monaco Oil man 13:40 GMT August 1, 2007
"With 88% retail long $CHF , 68% EURCHF , 79% long $/Y................."

Marseille AB 14:17 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
hi everyone, where could i get charts with estimated highs and lows for the day for USD/EUR?
the EUR hit 13700 does anyone think its going to get any higher today?

Lahore FM 14:17 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
extremely interesting chart for usdjpy hourly.we can have volatility gaining still further strength off 118.70.

London NYAM 14:16 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:11// I shouldnt imagine too many left now JP. If there are then they are likely to feel more hurt as the day progresses.

Mtl JP 14:11 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
NYAM 14:09, how many still short dlryen from sub 118 u d guess ?

London NYAM 14:10 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Bombs rock Baghdad as unity government crumbles - 2007-08-01 15:03:19

London NYAM 14:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Anyone trading this bucking bronco?

London NYAM 14:06 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
stopped out 240.97 for +17p nuts ;)

Gen dk 14:05 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 14:04 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
After months of speculation, the home improvement chain confirmed Tuesday that it has sold its supply unit, HD Supply, to a group of private equity firms for $10.3 billion. The company will use the proceeds to fund an aggressive $22.5 billion share repurchase program.

See why they were downgraded now. LOL

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 14:02 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
US June pending home sales +5.0% from May's revised -3.7% (prelim -3.5%) and against forecasts for a 0.5% drop.

US July ISM manufacturing index 53.8 fron June's 56.0 and against the expected 55.0. The prices paid index was 65.0 from July's 68.0 and an expected 67.0.

UK Alex 13:59 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Looks like they are using cash from a recent asset disposal. Kind of tells you what they expect future trading conditions to be like if they are using cash to buy back shares.

Ldn 13:59 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Apparent short-covering in stock index futures fades quickly as the early increase in prices provides a selling opportunity, a sign of the bearish tone. Beyond subprime concerns, Sep Nasdaq finds technical support at the 100-day moving average of 1921.00 and at the June 27 low of 1918.75. Recently at 1939.00, down 6.75 points. Sep S&P's penetrated Monday's 3 3/4-month low of 1455.20, dropping to a Globex low of 1442.10. Recently at 1458.70, down 3.2 points.

Mtl JP 13:59 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
still lose, still generous

HONG KONG (XFN-ASIA) - M1 money supply in June rose 4.7 pct from May and was up 16.5 pct from a year earlier, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said

London NYAM 13:59 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
longing now 1/3pos G/J 240.80 add near lows s/l just below 240.30
this is really yoyo day but the b-wave may already be done.

manchester sc 13:58 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
is there data coming out next few mins, likely impacts?

UK Alex 13:52 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
How are they financing the buyback?

Gen dk 13:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 13:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
quick enough out at 242.37 (bid hit target 242.31) for+83 pips

Ldn 13:49 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Investors Jittery About Home Depot's Buyback
22.5 billion share repurchase was supposed to prop up the stock until the U.S. housing market and the retailer's sales perk up. But recent turmoil in credit markets has heightened investor uncertainty about the repurchase. Indeed, Home Depot shares, recently at about $37, have underperformed major market indexes in recent weeks and are below the low end of the company's tender offer of $39 to $44 a share.
"Dynamics of the tender offer that were expected to lend near term support are seemingly backfiring," said Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Fassler in a note to clients while reiterating the firm's buy rating on shares.

London NYAM 13:48 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
bought back half again 242.78 (+50) holding rest to see what we do.

UK Alex 13:46 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
BNP Paribas on manufacturing:

The outlook remains good, as the external environment is strengthening, while inventory levels are at a low level. However, inflationary pressures are likely to increase.We expect the Bank of England to hike rates again in November.

HK Kevin 13:45 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
AUD reistance at 0.8548 seems cap the rebound very well so far.

Sydney ACC 13:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:24 GMT August 1, 2007
BNP Paribas are calling for a November hike by the BOE.

November, by which time the ramifications of the fall out from the financial markets will become apparent. At this time the City's contribution to the UK economy will begin to wane. GDP will begin to fall, tax receipts will decline, Christmas bonuses will not be as large or as common as last year as deals start to dry up. London property prices will be declining as M&A activity especially disappears.
While the Americans will be hardest hit the City will not be far behind. Certainly tomorrow before they announce their decision the members of the MPC will discuss this topic and the ramifications of a further rate increase.

London NYAM 13:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
sold g/j back again at 242.28 might trace all the way back to 242.60 area so will wait with some more ammo.

hk revdax 13:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:25//Yes, too tight. move it down to 1.2000.

London NYAM 13:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:11 GMT August 1, 2007
G/J looks like it concluded a fiery a-wave and now has enetered the tricky b-wave. the previous 241.73 high shouldnt be violated today and im now selling on rallies unless the high is breached by more than 20pips. Nice work FM again ;)
sold 1/3 pos here at 242.20

bought back half at 240.86 for 34p

Lahore FM 13:25 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Revdax this ism might decide the medium term for usd.that's the way techs are balanced.heading light into the number is good.the stop there is a bit tight but i do 10 to 15 pip stop trades all the time.

HK [email protected] 13:25 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 13:12 GMT August 1, 2007
Troubled Bear Stearns Hedge Funds Placed In Bankruptcy

A relief for the owners and managers no need anymore additional explanations to the customers.

Gen dk 13:24 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 13:24 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
BNP Paribas are calling for a November hike by the BOE.

Lahore FM 13:23 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 13:21 GMT August 1, 2007
was thinking of you.you are doing it quite well!

HK [email protected] 13:23 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:09 GMT August 1, 2007
HK [email protected] 13:05 GMT, got it & thanks. I just notice 117.60 and 112.95 are 20 and 50 ma in the monthly chart of USD/JPY.

Thank you I never noticed it before, I just reach it in different ways based on computations, that is an interesting fact in Tech. Analy.

hk revdax 13:21 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Buy $/CHF at 1.2015 with stop at 1.2002. See whether I am mimicking FM's fancy swinging model that well.

Syd 13:12 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Troubled Bear Stearns Hedge Funds Placed In Bankruptcy

London NYAM 13:11 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
G/J looks like it concluded a fiery a-wave and now has enetered the tricky b-wave. the previous 241.73 high shouldnt be violated today and im now selling on rallies unless the high is breached by more than 20pips. Nice work FM again ;)
sold 1/3 pos here at 242.20

HK Kevin 13:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 13:05 GMT, got it & thanks. I just notice 117.60 and 112.95 are 20 and 50 ma in the monthly chart of USD/JPY.

Makassar Alimin 13:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
[email protected], i think BOJ sans will stay up all night to guard the low, they were caught and slapped in the face last night

Lahore FM 13:08 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
los angeles bernie 13:05 GMT August 1, 2007
thanx bernie!best of trades!

Lahore FM 13:07 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Marseille AB 13:02 GMT August 1, 2007
no problem AB.had suggested a really small stop for a quick one.can't say if anything profitable will come along.also suggest that even if you are to follow anyone,don't go blindfolded.do run ur own nalysis to see if there is something of value out here.

HK [email protected] 13:05 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 12:57 GMT August 1, 2007

I cant say anything about time frame, of when such a target may be reached. But this number can be derived from shorter than a month term chart. The important level to crack in order to start dreaming about 113 is todays low.

los angeles bernie 13:05 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore---

especially nice call more than 16 hours ago on GBP/JY. very nice.

Syd 13:03 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Australian bank Macquarie admitted that it faced some problems with sub-prime hedge fund losses; This hurt the Australian dollar in the first place, with AUD/USD dropping back from the 0.86 area to the 0.8460 zone. Overnight, Moody’s also warned that some alt-A loans are no better than the sub-primes. This keeps the topic alive going into today’s trading.

Marseille AB 13:02 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
FM, please i meant no disrespect.

Lahore FM 13:00 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Bratislava Endy 12:59 GMT August 1, 2007
pleasure is all mine!

Lahore FM 13:00 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
stocks slipping.see stronger usd for a while to mid range.

AB,very difficult to respond to blatant flattery.i am just an ordinary trader.also i have yet to see an fx god.

Bratislava Endy 12:59 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:48 GMT August 1, 2007
Very nice trades indeed, thanks for sharing, wish you all the best.

HK Kevin 12:57 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 12:41 GMT, is that right your 113 target on USD/JPY is projected by the monthly chart?

Marseille AB 12:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
omg good job! please oh please god of trading tell me when and where to buy! :)

London NYAM 12:49 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 12:33 GMT August 1, 2007 //
ive been waiting to hear Soros come out and mention his fertile fallacies (or fantasies). Seems pretty fecund out there.

Lahore FM 12:48 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:32 GMT August 1, 2007
closed half of 2.0210 long gbpusd at 2.0262 for 52 pips.

----
closed remainder half at 2.0330 for 120 pips in all.

Lahore FM 12:47 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 06:11 GMT August 1, 2007
long audusd 0.8477.stops at 20.
---
closed half at 0.8540 for 63 pips.

London NYAM 12:44 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 12:40 GMT August 1, 2007//
thanks closed out at 241.50 for 150p. a little rich for me ill wait for a pull back as that was nuts.

Gen dk 12:44 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK [email protected] 12:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Things look a little extended. Will not be that easy.

The problem today is not high or low interest, but an infinite interest, that means when banks begin to refuse loans; Point.
The rules changed a little bit.

Makassar Alimin 12:40 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:21 GMT August 1, 2007

very good call NYAM, within an hour you are up almost 100 pips now. excellent!

Monaco Oil man 12:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Manchester sc:

I m long NZD , AUD , GBP from close to lows atm , after being stopped last night.
Still no signs of long term signal, until there's one , any dip is a good place to short the US$ from..

Things could change but no signs of that for now.


GT.

Makassar Alimin 12:36 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 12:33 GMT August 1, 2007

they will most likely succeed once we clear this 118.80 area

manchester sc 12:34 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
oil man, do you still see aud/usd as a good buy from here?

HK [email protected] 12:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Another attempt of housewives and matronas to bring the yen to 119.60

Mtl JP 12:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
NYAM 12:26 / re stress test.. I believe I saw this quote in One of the Black Swan missives (paraphrazing):

Good test reveals (corrects?) flawed theory.

Lahore FM 12:32 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:26 GMT August 1, 2007
Lahore FM 07:14 GMT August 1, 2007
long eurjpy at 160.86.stopless for now.
---
closed half at 161.71 for 85 pips.
--
closed 1/2 remainder at 162.25 for cumulative 139 pips.

Lahore FM 12:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Marseille AB 12:28 GMT August 1, 2007
get them from tech analysis on the charts here.you can do the same.use a charting package for a fee or use these.

http://www.netdania.com/ChartApplet.asp

Monaco Oil man 12:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Most of you should Take a look at this...

Over leveraging , is what probably the most common mistake traders do.

Good Trades.

Marseille AB 12:28 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Quote

"Lahore FM 11:51 GMT August 1, 2007
AB,1.3652 even may do for all the downside at the moment.so you can enter.if it is a medium term position you may have a larger stop as 1.3610 but if it is a short term buy then 1.3640 stop may do to see you around 1.3700."

Where do you get estimates for todays lows and highs?

London NYAM 12:26 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 12:22 GMT August 1, 2007// Well the author seems to think so, and if we bounce from here it will all be about the 'great bargains to be had' and 'all the wealth needing a home.' I dont agree with his conclusion that this will all be over in the morning but i liked his pawns and kings metaphor. A chess player knows that without his pawns he's pretty much dead meat.

Hong Kong Ahe 12:23 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:39 GMT - WOW, it is easy to be Billionaire in Zimbawee. It is a "must" to go there once in a life. LOL

Mtl JP 12:22 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:09 / maybe this whole issue will leave the room like a smelly cloud soon; how about a month give or take -- just in time for post-labourday trading on a new theme ?

London NYAM 12:21 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long gbp jpy at 240.10 will add if we break to 239.60/80 s/l below 239.60 targeting 242.90

Lahore FM 12:18 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
poor adp at 48 k.

London NYAM 12:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
The clear and present danger for the global boom is a credit crunch. "Tranche warfare" has broken out in the capital markets. Over the past couple of years, Wall Street's alchemists discovered how to convert junk mortgages, bonds, and loans into AAA credits by packaging them as CDOs for the bonds and CLOs for the loans. These credit pools are divided into frontline tranches of pawns that defended the kings and queens. The pawns are getting killed by rising foreclosures in the subprime mortgage market, leaving the better credits exposed. Suddenly, private equity firms and their bankers can't refinance their bridge loans using these pools. The market for "covenant-lite" bonds and loans has seized up.

This is really the first big stress test of the global boom.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3b1c7efe-3fc7-11dc-b034-0000779fd2ac.html

Como Perrie 12:05 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
ISM seen at 55.50 next Eia crude later on

bibi am off again

Como Perrie 12:04 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Might also lag some aruond 1.3650 be4 anything, jump into the upper figure or test somewhere today's printed lows. Very nice

Como Perrie 12:02 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
eurusd might be an intraday buy, but overall I do see It yet downward.

Lahore FM 11:58 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
MLT PA 11:55 GMT August 1, 2007
very good suggestion indeed.

Marseille AB 11:57 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
héhé, yes im just starting out with 4K so im pretty scared even with small amounts, i've trained for almost a year with the demo but euro was going up (overall) im kinda lost other way around.

MLT PA 11:55 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Marseille AB 11:45 GMT - You're "scared" to enter because your trade size maybe too big for your account. To remove the fear factor trade the smallest size you're most comfortable (to lose) with.

Marseille AB 11:53 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
FM, thanks for advices. really

London NYAM 11:52 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 11:42 GMT August 1, 2007// im not in anything yet (except long eurgbp for a long term position) and everything is short term swing trading right now for me as volitility is so high. I will play again on the cross as it is behaving more nicely than the yen in the pattern sets. I want to see how far we dip on this last spike. glgt

Lahore FM 11:51 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
AB,1.3652 even may do for all the downside at the moment.so you can enter.if it is a medium term position you may have a larger stop as 1.3610 but if it is a short term buy then 1.3640 stop may do to see you around 1.3700.

Lahore FM 11:49 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
shorted usdjpy at an unbelievable price.uptick's high stops.

Marseille AB 11:49 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:47 GMT August 1, 2007

so what you are saying is that you estimate USD/EUR not falling under 13610 and to be safe wait for a drop to 13640?

Lahore FM 11:47 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Marseille AB 11:45 GMT August 1, 2007
eurusd is good to buy as of now.1.3610 is the downside risk but that's about all.if that area is safe we may yet see 1.40.

Makassar Alimin 11:45 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long live housewives a.k.a BOJ sans :) this just doesnt feel like boring summer market, lots of opportunities to make money

Marseille AB 11:45 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
What i mean is i feel the EUR, is falling overall.
im scared to buy actually always wondering if its going to come back up after a sudden drop, or if it's going to keep falling.

London NYAM 11:43 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Alimin et al.
What I find disconcerting is the failure of GBPUSD to break below its last relative low at 2.0175 (5th wave failure or what we saw was not impulsive but the b wave ending and a c-wave of a terminal fifth is beginning scary as that would imply yet a new high in cable). That seems to imply that the mighty beast hasnt rolled over and died just yet. So the whip saw back up may be doubly fuelled by the soft shorters in cable. I think it may be the safer bet throan pure yen play.

hk revdax 11:42 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
NYAM and FM//Are you shorting into $/JY at this moment with your s-t swing strategy? Just being curious.

beirut jb 11:42 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Marseille AB

Salut eur/$ 13640is a support area , if broken u r in trouble if u r long if notit may pop from here, cable bounced from202 support so far it mau help too

if u r new the best advise for u is go and educate urself before trading

GL GT

Lahore FM 11:39 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Marseille AB 11:35 GMT August 1, 2007
your question is vague.be clearer,that might help.the market is active and looks good for trading.

Mtl JP 11:39 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR, Sydney ACC 09:45, Flip.. / Zimbabwe launches $200,000 note - BBC

... The new note, issued by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe from Wednesday, can buy 1kg (2.2lb) of sugar. ...

Lahore FM 11:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:33 GMT August 1, 2007
dip to 118.00 expected from where it can rise.or if it keeps going up from 118.44 and above 118.68 then we are ehaded all the way to 119.20/40 again.

GVI john 11:36 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI

Makassar Alimin 11:36 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:33 GMT August 1, 2007

agree ditto, cheers :)

Marseille AB 11:35 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Could i get a hint on wether or not i should exchange USD / EUR ?
is it a bad day to trade (or month even?) ?
i know sounds like stupids questions, im pretty new to this.

London NYAM 11:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
price action in G/J cross is looking good for the big correction move. 243.00 may get tested quite soon. On the Equities side im expecting it to be bounce day after an initial follow through. We seem to have formed a double bottom following a five wave decline. So if the count is right we correct back up possibly even to .618 of the move. Ill be looking to buy dips of the carry vehicles. FM do you see this?

Makassar Alimin 11:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
after testing 117.50, usdjpy should now go testing the upside IMO

Lahore FM 11:32 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
closed half of 2.0210 long gbpusd at 2.0262 for 52 pips.

Mtl JP 11:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Brisbane Flip 11:05 / this am's Black Swan on g-v's Research section treats that issue: "...Sure the dollar could go lower—but we don’t think is “Banana Republic” time for the US as many commentators would have you believe. ..." fwiw

Lahore FM 11:26 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:14 GMT August 1, 2007
long eurjpy at 160.86.stopless for now.
---
closed half at 161.71 for 85 pips.

Lahore FM 11:24 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
right after that:
GMT
12:15 PM USD ADP Employment Change (JUL) consensus 100K previous 150K

Mtl JP 11:20 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Data event on deck on the half-hour:
July Challenger Layoffs. Previous: -21.6%

London NYAM 11:16 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 10:22 GMT August 1, 2007//Thanks and I love Doctor Who.
nj jf 10:15 GMT August 1, 2007//You are right on FM. He is day in day out collecting like a trawlerman. Im a bit more of a fly fisherman and yesterday was probably a one off .

Budapest Z 11:14 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
try hitting the other side on your platform...;))

Marseille AB 11:10 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
is the eur going to keep crashing like this or is it possible to start makin money again between usd/eur any time soon ?

Brisbane Flip 11:05 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
I think PAR was actually being funny

I don't think anyone actually thinks a rate move up or down makes any difference as to the future survvival of American society :)

Lahore FM 10:29 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 10:22 GMT August 1, 2007
ACC sir,that was very gracious of you!

JF thanks for the appreciation!

Sydney ACC 10:22 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 10:15 GMT August 1, 2007
London NYAM 10:02 GMT August 1, 2007
thats some excellent cross trading... but you still got alot of work to do to match FM's pip total of last week !!

I'm starting to believe he is Doctor Who and has the Tardis down at the back of the garden. Just zips back and forwards one day to the next.
His timing and positions are incredible. What's more he is still so humble. A real gentleman.

Mumbai NS 10:20 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
NYAM gud think it has more downside left gl gt

Lahore FM 10:16 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 03:40 GMT July 31, 2007
sold eurusd 1.3720,mind stops at 60.target open.
-------
Out at 1.3660 for 60 pips.

nj jf 10:15 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:02 GMT August 1, 2007
thats some excellent cross trading... but you still got alot of work to do to match FM's pip total of last week !!

London NYAM 10:13 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Thanks FM and Mumbai. Asian session was obviously a gift.
Exiting trade on USDJPY looks like it wabnts to retest lows and on smaller time frames doesnt look impulsive to me. out 1t 117.83 (-7p).

Lahore FM 10:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
NY tim 08:53 GMT August 1, 2007
it is running about pretty much at random with no strict connection with any other pair but a loose one with jpy.it becomes interesting once it is above 1.2050 again.

Lahore FM 10:07 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:02 GMT August 1, 2007
grandslamming!

Mumbai NS 10:06 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Gud trade appreciate cheers!

London NYAM 10:06 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy 117.90

London NYAM 10:02 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:59 GMT July 31, 2007
sold second lot of GBPJPY 242.73 avg. 242.61 stop above 243.05 target below 241.00

limit hit at 240.85 for half (+175) closed other half now at 238.60 for +406 pips

UK Alex 09:55 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 09:45 GMT August 1, 2007
Yeah PAR, you should back this up with some hard facts. How many bushels of wheat is it to a barrel of oil?

beirut jb 09:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Paris Alain r u there??

Sydney ACC 09:45 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:32 GMT August 1, 2007
Your comments in this instance cannot pass without comment. This comment is puerile. In the first instance if you had stated the working class would have difficulty i could let that pass but the middle class, in the wealthiest nation in the world, unable to afford daily staples hardly!
in the second on the day Zimbabwe releases a new currency note with a denomination of ZWD 200k which is insufficient to pay for a loaf of bread come on now. The IMF also stated Zimbabwe will experience inflation of 100,000 this year.
Please don't let your prejudices show so much.

HK Kevin 09:43 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Just long USD/CAD at 1.0665, no stop atm.

UK Alex 09:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
American Home disclosed that it also has a $250 million credit facility with ABN Amro.

UK Alex 09:38 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
American Home said there are committed credit lines for the loans from Bank of America, J.P. Morgan Chase and Calyon Securities.

beirut jb 09:38 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi Traders hope u r all doing fine

paris alain bonjour is there any trading room or place where traaders meet in PARIS plz

Helsinki iw 09:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR. perhaps oil will not be priced in dollars? Canned food and shotgun shells may become hard assets?

UK Alex 09:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:08 GMT August 1, 2007
$9.7 billion to be precise.

PAR 09:32 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
If Fed cuts oil will be above $100 , energy and food will become unaffordable for middle class america and the US dollar will become freely convertible in Zimbabwean dollars .Always cutting rates when excesses become apparant is like taking EPO. Lol.

Helsinki iw 09:23 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
If this keeps up the FED may have to cut, considering that the bleeding seems to affect the financial system soon. In fact, most easing cycles have begun with an intermeeting surprise cut. Including the last one when the US consumer had to be saved from the tech bubble fall-out by creating a housing bubble, via a mountain of leverage. This is now unwinding.

UK Alex 09:22 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
US stocks tumbled in late trading on Tuesday as investors responded to more bad news about the mortgage market, ending the worst month for US equities in three years. Stocks gave back earlier gains as two mortgage insurers warned of a possible $1bn subprime loss and shares in American Home Mortgage Investment, a leading lender, plunged 90 per cent after it said it could no longer fund home loans. Mortgage Guaranty Investment Corp and Radian Group, two mortgage insurers, slid after they said their investment of more than $1bn (combined) in a subprime mortgage company, C-Bass, may be worthless.

manchester sc 09:22 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
aud/usd seems to be stalling at these levels. itching to go long on it

PAR 09:08 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Bear Stearns ,Barclays and Bank of America are among the banks that loaned billions to American Home Mortgage Investment corp .

UK Alex 09:00 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Syd, see they have put a figure to the amount of leverage they are using - which is nice.

Gen dk 09:00 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 08:55 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex just this other article today
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22172543-643,00.html

NY tim 08:53 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM

can you comment USD/CHF performance for the past 24h - no correlation to eur/usd at all?

Brisbane Flip 08:52 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Alex I think sums it up perfectly.
Macquarie are the biggest users/beneficiairies of credit for a while now so stands to reason their plans to take over the world are slowed down by a few er.... weeks at least -LOL

UK Alex 08:49 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd, any more news on Macquarie? Apparently, it has no direct exposure to US subprime, but is suffering the consequences of general tightening in credit markets.

Lahore FM 08:47 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long gbpusd 2.0210,stops at 2.0150

Lahore FM 08:46 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
closed all of 2.0368 short at 2.0210. for 158 pip gain.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:43 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 08:40 GMT - Good afternoon! You are welcome.

UK Alex 08:42 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Hearing that sentiment among Japanese housewives still remains good for selling yen in favour of high yielders.

Syd 08:40 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:36 GMT thanks you for your help today

Hong Kong Qindex 08:36 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Wednesday August 1, 2007 - 07:48:03 GMT
QIndex - www.qindex.com


AUD/USD : Current Comments

AUD/USD :


The market will be trapped in the range of 0.8444 - 0.8506 for the time being. A projected resistant barrier is expected at 0.8489 - 0.8506 and a projected supporting barrier is located at 0.8444 - 0.8449. Basically the market is going to trade between 0.8397 - 0.8503 and the mid-point reference of 0.8397 - 0.8503 is 0.8450.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 08:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
UK manufacturing PMI: at 55.7 much stronger than expected.
UK manufacturing PMI consensus was for 54.0.
UK: BRC Shop prices also firmer at 55.7, up from 54.3

Syd 08:32 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Jul Mfg PMI 55.7 VS 54.7 In Jun - Sources

UK Alex 08:32 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Subprime - a winner!

HK Kevin 08:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 07:36 GMT, just curiosity, Why 117.55?

Syd 08:28 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
AUD has come under heavy pressure from decreasing risk appetite and unwinding of carry trades, with AUD/USD falling sharply from recent multi-years high of 0.8870, notes Commerzbank. However, says recent domestic data (CPI, credit growth, retail sales) have been strong, and the fundamental picture supports the market view of a rate hike to 5.50% in August. Remains cautious of another high-yield selloff if risk aversion suddenly picks up again, but thinks AUD/USD will try and find a base in the 0.85-0.84 area ahead of next week's RBA rate decision. However, in the current climate, gains are likely to be slow and hard to realize. AUD/USD currently trades at 0.8468.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:59 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Russia deputy finance minister Storchak says still tendency for rouble to appreciate. (Reuters)

HK [email protected] 07:58 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Stock market in NY or DOW has to go down 3000 points from the top during liquidation on bankers call "gimmie back my money" and by many scared investors. The witty guys are likely on evacuation mode, while those who think that America is the greatest nation on earth, are likely to stay and sell at the bottom.

More or less 3000 points to pay those hundreds of billions losses.

Yen gave today first time a signal that it is targeting 113 critical level, but a fast decline(if happened) to that level will result in a strong dollar rebound.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:58 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
German July PMI in line with expectations; comes in at 56.75, Market had been looking for 56.8.

london bob 07:57 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
any1 is longing GBP/USD here?

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:57 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
French manufacturing PMI falls to 53.3 in July, below consensus expectations fo 53.5 and after 53.8 in June.

Bahrain SHARK 07:53 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Hey Im new over here.... really like the way this forum is going, want to share my pick for the day with you guys. & if there is any recomendation or comments that u want add please do:

Tip of the day

EUR/USD short: 1.3697 stop: 1.3755 Target: 1.3460

Hong Kong Qindex 07:53 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : We have seen the daily high already.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 07:48 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Italian July PMI manufacturing 53.3 from 54.0 in June - the lowest since Nov 2005, and against forecasts for 53.2.

Syd 07:47 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY is trying to stabilize just ahead of the 160.00-159.60 support zone says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, however any near-term strength should be viewed as corrective and the base is exposed. Trade below 159.60 risk opens toward the 55-day MA at 156.10-00 and potentially the 7-year uptrend at 153.50. Topside, resistance comes in at 163.80 and 164.75. Jones says the rate remains offered below the latter.

Gen dk 07:45 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:44 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 22:25 GMT July 31, 2007
--I think to take profit even earlier but I my observation is that the MAs, SAR, MACD and DM all point to lower for this one -- maybe a challange of the low below 161
-----
lol - next time I should put my money where my mouth is..

Hong Kong Qindex 07:43 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Wednesday August 1, 2007 - 07:07:36 GMT
QIndex - www.qindex.com


AUD/USD : Current Comments

AUD/USD :


The market will be trapped in the range of 0.8444 - 0.8506 for the time being. A projected resistant barrier is expected at 0.8489 - 0.8506 and a projected supporting barrier is located at 0.8444 - 0.8449.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Wednesday August 1, 2007 - 07:07:36 GMT
QIndex - www.qindex.com


AUD/USD : Current Comments

AUD/USD :


The market will be trapped in the range of 0.8444 - 0.8506 for the time being. A projected resistant barrier is expected at 0.8489 - 0.8506 and a projected supporting barrier is located at 0.8444 - 0.8849.

madrid mm 07:40 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The yen jumped against the euro and the dollar as hedge fund losses and a slump in Asian stocks prompted investors to cut investments paid for by loans in Japan.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ado1pEfpFvjQ&refer=home

paris alain 07:39 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
we can see a very nice KEY REVERSAL in usdjpy if stocks rebounds in ny and usdjpy close above 118.7

madrid mm 07:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Former Bundesbank President Karl Otto Poehl said in 1980 ``Inflation is like toothpaste''. "Once it's out, it's difficult to get back in again. So the best thing is not to squeeze too hard on the tube.'' 8+-)

HK [email protected] 07:36 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 03:42 GMT August 1, 2007

As I suggested before not to buy yen before the 117.55 is breached. There is enough money making to the downside.HH

NY tim 07:35 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
why USD/CHF is bleeding so hard?

london cg 07:27 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy at 117.85, stop 117.55

Lahore FM 07:14 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long eurjpy at 160.86.stopless for now.

Syd 07:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY may hover in 117.50-118.30 band until U.S. stock markets open, says trader at major Japan bank; "Many players are trying to sell to guard against further losses caused by possible falls in U.S. stocks, but there are players (such as Asian funds) who want to buy back the dollar (vs JPY) at these levels." Adds, if U.S. stocks extend losses, pair may fall to 117.00, but if they recover, may well rebound to 118.50.

Geneva 06:55 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
thx

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 06:53 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
USDTRY 1.3134/46

Geneva 06:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
where is tryusd?

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 06:50 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
SWEDISH July manufacturing PMI rises to 60.5 from 60.3 in June. This is above the market expectations of a slight softening to 60.1.

madrid mm 06:45 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Bear Stearns, hit by collapse of its 2 hedge funds recently, has halted redemption in a third hedge fund.

* Another rumour of a huge hedge fund, with $16b under management, facing problems too.

* Australia's Macquarie Bank has warned that its retail investors face losses of up to 25% in two of funds - Reuters. Shares of Macquarie Bank falls more than 10% on the news.

* Focus on US Treasury Henry Paulson meeting on CNY with Pres Hu Jintao today amidst pressure from US Senate on CNY.

* Australian Treasurer Peter Costello says Australia's financial institutions are very secure and consequences of US subprime crisis will not affect their standings. Losses at Macquarie fund would not impact on Macquarie Bank itself.

* PM Shinzo Abe has accepted resignation for scandal hit Farm Minister Norihiko Akagi.

* Japan average land prices +8,6%y/y in 2006 vs 0.9% in 2005.

* Australia June retails sales +1.4%m/m vs 1.0% expected, but Q2 chain volume retails sales -0.2%q/q.

* Aust trade deficit widens to AUD1.751b, vs AUD1.2b expected.

* S+P says NZ rating unlikely to rise to AAA unless there is reduction in debt position - BBG.

* WSJ: Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. sealed a $5b agreement to purchase the Dow Jones, publisher of The Wall Street Journal.

Choppy markets again as market are hit by risk aversion, after series of news of losses, from Bear Stearns third hedge fund, Macquarie Banks's 2 funds and American Home Mortgage news triggering fresh waves of Cross/JPY selling on JPY carry trades unwinding on fears that the current woes will spread to more funds and markets.

Asian stocks broadly lower after the selloff in US stocks on credit, subprime woes, with S+P futures breaking key 1450 level to 1445, and Dow futures -132pts to 13,145, while Nikkei falls below key 17,000, for the first time since April 2, signalling more global stock losses.

USD/JPY broke key 118 to 3 and half month lows of 117.87 as the 118 options triggers at 118 taken out, to lowest since April 19 117,59, on back of Carry trades unwinding, with EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY, NZD/JPY all under pressure. Today's Italy's EUR18.3b bond coupons and redemption also weighing on EUR/JPY, focus on any selling from Japanese custodian bank.

AUD/USD falling toward recent 1 month lows of 0.8465, on back of AUD/USD, AUD/JPY sales, weighed by All Ords and Macquarie Bank shares fall. Choppy trading as AUD edged up to highs of 0.8540 after the stronger retail sales and on good US, UK clearers buying earlier.

AUD/JPY broke 100 to 99.72, lowest level since May 31 lows of 99.70 asall Cross/JPY, Majors/JPY down today, focus on stock, hedge funds losses, credit woes, subprime, CNY. EUR/USD stocks hit blw 1.3650 on EUR/JPY sales to 160.85. GBP sold on GBP/JPY to 238.40.

Nikkei -393pts or 2.28% to fall below key 17,000 for first time since April2, hitting 16,855.52. JGBs higher on firmer US Treasuries and steep Nikkei losses., 10-yr yield -0.03% 1.760%. September crude oil edging back to $78 in Asia, at $77.95,-0.26

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 117.85/118.71, EUR/USD 1.3645/1.3680, GBP/USD 2.0217/2.0308, USD/CHF 1.1994/1.2028, AUD/USD 0.8460/0.8540, NZD/USD 0.7542/0.7648.

madrid mm 06:42 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
GM FX Jedi

Lahore FM 06:20 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
tomi closed that for 330 pips.posted just a while back.

warsaw TOMi 06:19 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
in short usdcad 1.0690 stop 1.0720

warsaw TOMi 06:16 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
hola FM,u keep that short gbpyen? thinking of longing it

Lahore FM 06:11 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long audusd 0.8477.stops at 20.

warsaw TOMi 06:03 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
ok, taking profit from short uj at 11778 for 155+

Hong Kong Qindex 06:02 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
The targeting points for other major currencies and their crosses have been posted in the GVI Forex Blog and they are still valid.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:57 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Saturday July 28, 2007 - 17:21:07 GMT
QIndex - www.qindex.com


USD/JPY : Daily Forecast
Daily Directional Indicator : 118.18 - 118.19* - 118.44* - (118.66) - 118.86 - (119.87)

Remarks : The market has is likely to trade between 118.18 - 118.86 initially during early period of Monday morning. USD/JPY is under pressure when it is trading below 118.66. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 118.18. On the other hand the market momentum is strong if it can trade above 119.87.


Upside Targeting Points : 119.10 and 119.87


Downside Targeting Points : 117.27 and 117.85

Lahore FM 05:54 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 05:34 GMT August 1, 2007
long usdjpy at 118.22 ,stops at 117.95.
--
stopped for 27 pips.so much for long usdjpy adventure.

Syd 05:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

Wellington, N.Z. 05:39 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   


Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for Wednesday – Aug.1st:


My favored FX Trades for Today are: NZD/USD & USD/YEN


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

Lahore FM 05:34 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy at 118.22 ,stops at 117.95.

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 05:24 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Russian names selling YEN crosses.

Lahore FM 05:20 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
stopped for 118.83 long usdjpy overnight at 118.60.

Lahore FM 05:20 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:01 GMT July 27, 2007
long again audusd,0.8581.stopless for now.

--
had closed half just above 0.8600 yesterday and had stops at 0.8560 for the rest as posted.stopped at 0.8560 for nothing.

Lahore FM 05:15 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
thanx NS,yes there may well be more room.

Cali mmm 05:15 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Yes FM. Always good to do that. GL & GT today.

Lahore FM 05:15 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 04:33 GMT July 31, 2007
audcad
Entry: 0.9162 Target: 0.8810 Stop: 0.9210

playing it with cad gdp data in view and on monthly chart for audcad with monthly close in view as well.shorted at 0.9162.
---
closed 1/3rd at 0.9070 for 92 pips.stops to entry for 2/3rds.

Mumbai NS 05:14 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
FM gud day n cheers gud trades and i still feel there is a lot of room still left on these pairs .On money management ur call is wisest to t/p but all these crosses and aud have a long way to go down in medium term all imho gl gt

Lahore FM 05:13 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
long usdchf 1.2001.keeping earlier long from 1.2024 in as well although it went below mind stops at 1.2000.stops for the lower position,rigid at 1.1979.

Lahore FM 05:11 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
mmm,it may.had to lose for some gains.

Lahore FM 05:10 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
closed gbpusd short from 2.0368 1/2 at 2.0358 for 110 pips.lowered stops to 2.0320 for the rest.

Lahore FM 05:10 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:38 GMT July 31, 2007
**
shorted another 119.44**,stops at 119.70.
---
closed remainder half at 118.30 for 114 pips pips cumulative profit.


Lahore FM 11:10 GMT July 31, 2007
agree with tomi,short usdjpy 119.28 with 60 for stops,target open.

closed half at 118.32 for 96 pips.

Cali mmm 05:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi FM. You don´t see GBPJPY going down some more?

Hong Kong Qindex 05:08 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Wednesday August 1, 2007 - 04:19:50 GMT
QIndex - www.qindex.com




AUD/USD : Targeting 0.8403


The downside trending momentum is strong and the odds are high that the market will penetrate through the recent low at 0.8460. The next targeting point is 0.8403 and the market may be able to consolidate within the barrier of 0.8342 // 0.8402.

Lahore FM 05:06 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:40 GMT July 31, 2007
short gbpjpy 242.90,stops at 243.50.

--
closed all at 239.60 for cumulative 330 pips.had closed half earlier at 242.30 for 60 pips.

hk revdax 04:30 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin //I am having a summer holiday. If you would like to have coffee with me in HK, please send me an email.

Wellington, N.Z. 04:30 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for Wednesday – Aug.1st:


My favored FX Trades for Today are:

USD/YEN & NZD/USD


To request a Trial of my FX Service

Click here

Max McKegg/TRL

HK Kevin 04:19 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Watching the movement of USD/JPY and USD/CHF, it seems carry-trades unwinding is back in a faster pace.

HK Kevin 04:16 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 04:04 GMT, good monring, just manage to cover my short Aussie from 8592 last night at 8508.
Both AUD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY have retraced more than I expected. You know I covered the short AUD/JPY from 119.18 only at 118.97 before going to bed.
I expect the recent low would hold, but prefer to watch today's close.
Now only have some short EUR from 1.377X from last week.

hk revdax 04:13 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Anyone get an idea of $/CAD? TIA

hk revdax 04:04 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 03:45 //How about stop-longging at 118.69 with a 50 pips stop?

Shenzhen Laowen 03:46 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Yen crosses shaky just now. There will be a bounce from here to today's highs. Let's see.

HK Kevin 03:45 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
On the other hand, if USD/JPY trade above 119.50 today, possibly a stop long or only to sell near 120.80

HK Kevin 03:42 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 02:52 GMT, I think today price movement of USD/JPY is crucial to determine a m/t direction. If it is going to test 115, it should trade below 118 today.

london cg 03:09 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
you are right rf

Syd 03:08 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Investors will be listening intently when the world's biggest insurance companies report financial results in coming weeks, anxious to hear new evidence about whether the pain from subprime-mortgage debt is spreading further.

Insurers primarily make money by collecting premiums and investing that money in the markets, aiming to earn more than they pay out in claims and expenses over time. As a result, they are among the world's biggest investors. And they are particularly big holders of bonds since they need cash available to pay claims.

Most of the industry's biggest players world-wide -- including American International Group Inc., Allianz SE in Germany, and AXA SA in France -- are expected to report results over the next three weeks. By and large, analysts say, the industry appears to have paltry direct exposure to the bonds backed by U.S. mortgage debt that was extended to the least creditworthy borrowers, which is now rocking credit markets.

HK [email protected] 02:52 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
.

It is more safe to buy yen when traded below 117.55. Above that better keep out of the market, unless You like gambling or you have enough money to risk.

HK [email protected] 02:48 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
.

Japan Faces Pressure From APEC Ministers Over Yen Carry Trade.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=amavMJo3bxsI&refer=currency

Doubtful if these Japs thick-faces with Paulson too will be impressed, by the 21 nations problems.
Same with all the problems they have created world wide.

sydney ge11ja 02:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 02:23 GMT August 1, 2007

LOL i was thinking that might be an interesting article till i saw the link, Im sure socialist worker has a fair balanced view of the financial markets

Syd 02:30 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   

More bad news for the hedge funds. It is as if the press were finally waking up to what hedge funds really are - a way to separate a rich fool from his money.

Hedge funds, like all public spectacles, begin with deception. How could anyone paying 2% in fees and 20% in profits ever hope to make much money after taxes? Yet, some of the savviest investors believed they could.
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/hedge-fund-fool/2007/07/11/#more-1182



N.Z. Dollar Falls as Housing Woes Spur Reduction in Risky Bets
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aTdgv6IV.3SI&refer=australia

Ldn 02:23 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
World economy on the precipice?
The world economy has been floating on a sea of cheap credit for much of the present decade. The sharp falls on global stock exchanges last week may have marked the moment when the financial markets realised this era is coming to an end.

http://www.socialistworker.co.uk/art.php?id=12625

Sydney ACC 02:11 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Australia's retail sales rose the most in two years in June as job gains and higher wages prompted consumers to spend more at bars, restaurants and clothing stores.

Sales advanced 1.4 percent from May, when they fell a revised 0.3 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 25 economists was for a 1 percent gain.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602065&sid=aobae.UQhRDQ&refer=movers_by_index

melbourne maria 02:04 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
incredible how usdyen resists !!

Syd 02:03 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Japanese land prices in 2007 rose at the fastest pace in at least 15 years, a government survey showed Wednesday, suggesting the country is fully out of real-estate deflation.
According to a survey taken by National Tax Agency, the average price of land throughout the country as of Jan. 1 was up 8.6% from the previous year. It was the second straight year of increase after a 0.9% rise in 2006, which was the first gain in 14 years. The increase was led by a jump in prices in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, the country's three major urban areas. Prices in Tokyo surged 13.1%, marking the first double-digit growth ever since the NTA began taking the survey in 1992. Nagoya saw an increase of 9.1%, followed by the Osaka area with 8.1%. The data also showed that the recovery in land prices isn't limited to the major cities, but is gradually spreading to other areas in the country. Of Japan's 47 prefectures, 12 logged a rise, a tremendous increase from only five in the previous year. In the remaining 35 prefectures, the rate of decline slowed or stopped in 30, with only one widening its pace of fall from the previous survey. As a result, the decline in land prices excluding the three major urban areas has come to a halt for the first time since 1993. The tax agency conducts the survey to calculate land inheritance taxes.

sydney anna 02:02 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
thank you

Syd 02:02 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Japan land prices up at fastest pace this year in at least 15 years, shows National Tax Agency survey; prices +8.6% after 0.9% increase in 2006 - which was first gain in 14 years, indicating Japan exiting real estate deflation. Urban areas mark significant rises with Tokyo area prices +13.1%, followed by Nagoya area with 9.1% gain, Osaka with 8.1%.

Syd 01:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY may manage to hover above 118 in Asia, as non-fund players not willing to push pair down during Tokyo hours due to strong buying interest from Japan players, says Mizuho Corporate Bank's senior dealer Masashi Matsuzawa. "I don't think breaking below 118 is easy, but in London or New York hours, players will at least attempt (to push pair down) since a lot of liquidity will be provided in those hours." Adds, USD/JPY not paying much attention to Japan stocks; "unless it falls drastically, say 3%, players will keep their eyes on New York."

sydney anna 01:35 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
what about usdyen? dollar will resist and become safe haven??

Sydney ACC 01:34 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Retail sales +1.4%
Trade Deficit -AUD 1.75 billion

Melbourne saint 01:34 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
21:30ET *DJ Australia June Trade Deficit A$1.75B Vs A$1.05B Consensus

bbsapul 01:32 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
anyone know the data for aud/usd?

Hong Kong Qindex 00:57 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 00:38 GMT : I am bias on the downside. Use EUR/CHF as a reference.


Friday July 27, 2007 - 15:54:49 GMT
QIndex - www.qindex.com


EUR/CHF : Heading Towards 1.6386

EUR/CHF : The market is working on the barrier at 1.6454 // 1.6477. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below [1.6505]. A projected barrier is located at 1.6432. The two downside targeting points are 1.6386* and 1.6361*. The current expected trading ranges are 1.6340 - 1.6386* - 1.6432 - 1.6454 // 1.6477* - 1.6500.

Mtl JP 00:54 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
CB see Futures Forum

dc CB 00:43 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 00:17 GMT August 1, 2007
dc CB /

that last post was for you....missed the paste.

Syd 00:42 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 00:37 GMT yes , just wonder what affect it will have on the GBP he must be confident to win

dc CB 00:41 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Went short SnP basis my feeling it would drop hard after the window dressing hour. The hour came earlier than I had thought, thanks to the AHM tank on reopen after being halted for two days. Holding short after seeing the Bear story. Basically avoiding currencies, as it's really summer trading (heresy here I know) except for JYU calls I picked up in June and a whipsaw profit stop out today on CDU that I picked up yesterday...seemed a logical long.

As I've said many times before Stox are easy compared to Forex which is Hard...no information and long hours. :)

hk revdax 00:38 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Qindex//Any idea of $/CHF? TIA

UK Alex 00:37 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:33 GMT August 1, 2007
Very clever of them to let it slip while he was out of the country.

Sydney ACC 00:34 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
sydney ge11ja 00:33 GMT August 1, 2007
Hah! HaH! Hah! - very clever, pay that one.

sydney ge11ja 00:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:10 GMT July 31, 2007

ACC apparently they are now being known as the $750,000 factory

Syd 00:33 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
Brown drums up funds for a snap autumn pollhttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2176379.ece

UK Alex 00:31 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Music retailer HMV Group Plc said Tuesday that it will sell its Japanese operations, including 62 stores, to an investment company affiliate of the Daiwa Securities group in late August for about 17 billion yen.

The U.K.-based company, which offers music, videos and DVDs at its retail outlets, will sell its stakes in HMV Japan KK and HMV Retail Ltd. to Daiwa Securities SMBC Principal Investments Co.

HMV Group plans to use proceeds from the sale of its Japanese businesses to pay down debt.

UK Alex 00:23 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
A study by JPMorgan shows that the largest amount of subprime loans occurred in 2005, followed closely by those extended in 2006. This means that the subprime problem isn't going to go away quickly and will continue for the rest of this year and all of 2008.

Mtl JP 00:17 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
dc CB / probably best to keep a very close eye on Credit by way of the Bonds price canary for where things are heading.

dc CB 00:07 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
More on BSC...from briefing.com.

The Wall Street Journal reports BSC already forced to shut two hedge funds that bet heavily on the risky subprime-mortgage market, is now facing big losses in a third fund that has roughly $900 mln in mortgage investments, according to people familiar with the matter. The fund, known as the Bear Stearns Asset-Backed Securities Fund, ran into trouble in July and has refused to return investors' money for the moment, according to these people. One of these people said the redemption requests were postponed in hopes that the fund's assets would rebound in value. The fund contains a range of mortgages, but only a small slice of them that are considered subprime, the area that has given so many firms heartburn in recent weeks. Unlike the two other Bear funds that are being closed, this fund is not leveraged. The asset-backed fund was up about 5% between the beginning of the year and the end of June according to these people. But faced with a slew of mortgage markdowns in July, its performance appears to have plummeted. It is not known how much, if anything, BSCns of the fund... The decline of the asset-backed fund is yet another setback for Bear's embattled money-management unit, Bear Stearns Asset Management. The weakening and eventual failure of two structured credit funds in June and July, known as the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund and the High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Fund, lost investors as much as $1.6 billion in equity and forced the ouster of the unit's chairman. "There are no plans to shut down the fund," said Russell Sherman, a Bear spokesman. "We believe the fund portfolio is well positioned to wait out the market uncertainty. And we believe by suspending redemptions, we can ensure the best long term results for our investors. We don't believe it's prudent or in the interest of our investors to sell assets in this current market environment."

dc CB 00:02 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
The most interesting tale of "no doc" mortgages yet.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/30/AR2007073001715_pf.html

Tonbridge AL 00:01 GMT August 1, 2007 Reply   
ACC. not really surprising considering that Curzon Street dubbed hedge Fund Alley is home to over 1 trillion dollars