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Forex Forum Archive for 01/04/2008

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singapore 21:41 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   


bad trading beginning of the first year , have a nice week end .

GENEVA DS 21:33 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Zeus , you got it right again... volatility will definitely be back next week... Interest rates to be slashed all around the world to ZERO !!!! STARTING GB, than EUR, than US.... and all will be like in JAPAN.... no carrys anymore... best of luck to all... good weekend...

GVI john 21:25 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
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philadelphia caba 20:02 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
sold eur/gbp at 7490, s/l above 7520

dc CB 19:47 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   

NYSE NAS
Advancing 79,791,000 135,480,000
Declining 944,358,000 1,561,179,000
Total: 1,026,290,000 1,700,165,000

toronto Dr Unken Katt 19:43 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
cableyen i headed toward 210 , i think

Lahore FM 19:28 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
aud and cad gave into persistent jpy strength.we will likely have friday performance repeated through monday and remainder of the coming week.

--
good weekend all!

The Netherlands Purk 19:24 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
I am taking a new short here in e-u. 3 positions. Target: Monday...

HK Kevin 19:09 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
I may be crazy. just short AUD at 8740. If it close today around 873X, we may see 8630 easily shortly after next Mon Asian morning opening

dc CB 18:56 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Bush says U.S. financial markets strong, solid - Reuters

The Netherlands Purk 17:54 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Closed e/u short. done for today. Maybe a tiny long gbp-usd.

London NYAM 17:46 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Sold EURGBP (again) .7483 it really wants but doesnt seem to have the energy to break .7500 (second sale at .7498 limit) stop .7505 (or thereabouts).

The Netherlands Purk 17:37 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
short e-u here, end of range seen....

Rye, NY et 17:32 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw....If you draw parallel Channel Lines through the high on Nov 21 and the low of Dec 16 and another one through 1.4850 on Monday, you'll see the Bearish Channel that I posted about previously. I believe we can expect the market to top out on this upmove at ard 1.4850 and trade down to the previous Channel Resistance Line, which will become the new Channel Support....All, of course, imvho...GL/GT....Happy New Year

Amman wfakhoury 17:25 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 16:53 GMT January 4, 2008
=====
you are right..but this will not happened today .so I prefer to exit the hedge on monday.

Hong Kong Ahe 17:25 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
quoted..US investment firm Aetos capital has beaten off a challenge by Morgan Stanley to lead a group of investors in the Yen 300bln (Usd 2.7bln), purchase of a 30% stake in Japanese property co Daito Trust construction.
Unquoted..
This news pops up the USDJPY for 50 pips . But I dont know why MS needs to challenge it and what they could do out of the bashing. Shrug and confused. GLGT

London NYAM 17:24 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Dr Q. Your posts are like the backbone to the FF. Thank you and have a relaxing weekend.

Hong Kong Qindex 17:22 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 17:18 GMT - Have a nice weekend, good night!

HK Kevin 17:21 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Hong kong Ahe, just sold AUD/JPY 95.18. Lt's see where it will close today, cheers.

St. Annaland Bob 17:18 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Qindex, just want to wish you the very best and relaxing weekend ... take care!

London NYAM 17:10 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
sold usdjpy 108.79 stop above 109.00 targeting mid 107.

London NYAM 16:53 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
wfakhoury//In my language: A potential triangular wave 4 preceding a breakout down (1.9780/90 must hold). target 1.9660-80. gt

Amman wfakhoury 16:51 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 16:47 GMT January 4, 2008
wfakhoury//May even be worth a sell now. 1.9750

====
it is time to consildate in narrow path.
matter normally postponed to next signal.

London NYAM 16:47 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
wfakhoury//May even be worth a sell now. 1.9750

Cromwell cm 16:44 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 16:40 GMT January 4, 2008
mmm..no comment...

Amman wfakhoury 16:41 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
correction sell level at 19700 tp 19650-19600

Hong Kong Qindex 16:41 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
JAK BOND 16:38 GMT - Let it run and see how it goes next Monday.

Amman wfakhoury 16:40 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 07:46 GMT January 4, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 07:38 GMT January 4, 2008
gbp.usd
====
sell level confirmed @ 19700 tp 19650-19600
=========
sold @ 19694

according my signal
gbp.usd sell level 19700 tp19850-19600
buy level 19745 tp19790-19850
---------
sold @ 19694
hedged at 19750 buy stop buy.
exit the hedge at 19840.
re hedeged at 19753.

JAK BOND 16:38 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Dr Q
May I know ur target?
1.4600 or lower ?

TIA

Hong Kong Qindex 16:26 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD : If your are willing to lose 25 pips the odds are in favor of taking a short position with a stop placed at 1.4805.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:18 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:24 GMT January 4, 2008
USD/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is below 109.23. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 107.67 - 110.66 and the mid-point reference is 109.17. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 108.11. Projected supporting points are expected at 107.25 and 107.73.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:00 GMT January 4, 2008
GBP/JPY : Resistance at 221.69

As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is working on the lower barrier at 214.88 // 216.24*. The monthly cycle normal trading range is 210.79 - 232.60. The market may head for 210.79 when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 213.52.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:13 GMT January 4, 2008
GBP/JPY : The market is under pressure when it isbelow 217.61. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 213.77 - 217.33. Projected supporting points are expected at 210.96 and 212.26.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:37 GMT January 4, 2008
EUR/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is below 161.55. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 159.07 - 161.43. It is likely that the market is heading towards 159.45. A projected supporting point is expected at 158.26.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:57 GMT January 4, 2008
USD/CAD : The market is under pressure when it is below 0.9961. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 0.9805 - 0.9917. Projected supporting points are 0.9795 and 0.9775.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:55 GMT January 4, 2008
AUD/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 0.8817. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 0.8699 - 0.8857. Projected supporting points are expected at 0.8631 and 0.8657.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:47 GMT January 4, 2008
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.4800. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.4620 - 1.4656. Projected supporting points are expected at 1.4484 and 1.4520. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 1.4504 - 1.4789 and the mid-point reference is 1.4647.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:31 GMT January 4, 2008
GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.9763. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.9630 - 1.9661. It is likely that the market will head for 1.9519. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 1.9553 - 1.9789. Projected supporting points are 1.9421 and 1.9486.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:14 GMT January 4, 2008
USD/CHF : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.1109. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 1.1044 - 1.1172. My bias is on the downside. Projected supporting points are 1.0850 and 1.0900

Hong Kong Qindex 11:31 GMT January 4, 2008
EUR/GBP : The congested area of the daily cycle is projected at 0.7435 - 0.7492. A projected supporting point is positiong at 0.7427.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:38 GMT January 4, 2008
EUR/CHF : Heading Towards 1.6287.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:43 GMT January 4, 2008
USD/CAD : the current expected trading range is 0.9961 - 1.0084.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:07 GMT January 4, 2008
USD/CAD : 0.9986 - 1.0004 - 1.0013 - 1.0039 - 1.0068

Hong Kong Qindex 16:07 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
USD/CAD : 0.9986 - 1.0004 - 1.0013 - 1.0039 - 1.0068

Hong Kong Ahe 15:55 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:38 GMT - Hi Kevin, the pattern similar to what happened on Nov21,2007. 95.14/17 is good level to short AUDJPY. Reference charts USDJPY, AUDUSD and AUDNZD to catch the movement. Time frame before 2:00 EST today. GLGT.

USA Zeus 15:55 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Investment policy flows to begin next week. Snr already called jnr on his way home from the holidays in his Gulfstream V and told jnr and skeleton staff to get volatility started back and forth so he can make a killing when he comes in.

London NYAM 15:50 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Allimin, I c'an't see anything (not even dead people) so i will call it a day but im leaving a couple of limits in case we get that last leg in USDJPY. ciao

Hong Kong Qindex 15:43 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
USD/CAD : the current expected trading range is 0.9961 - 1.0084.

Makassar Alimin 15:41 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 15:37 GMT January 4, 2008

thanks NYAM you are right, i have been watching aud as well, and it could be leading the pack

madrid mm 15:40 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
I wonder if euro/usd will finish the day @ 1.4800ish ...?

And this 108 line is hard to break in USD/YEn ATm....

HK Kevin 15:38 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 15:31 GMT, does 95.50 a realistic level to short AUD/JPY.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:38 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
EUR/CHF : Heading Towards 1.6287.

London NYAM 15:37 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 15:25//looks like a risky idea...i wanted to buy dips but this looksl ike the start of a bigger dip to me so im staying flat.
Im going to trawl the other crosses for some set-ups cause the main ones look in-between to me.

madrid mm 15:37 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Today It looks good 8-)

And all the true traders will tell you it could have gone easily the other way......

And i have my share of wrong trades 8-)

One important rule for me is
- don t dream about the money you COULD make. It is, know how much money you are ready to lose on a trade.

8-)

madrid mm 15:32 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin,
I did NOT know !!!

8-)

Again i had 1/3rd of a chance to get it right. This "loonie" works in mysterious way... It was only a gut feeling 8-)

Hong Kong Ahe 15:31 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Market still eyed to test USDJPY 107.20/30, while AUDJPY may be pushed to hit 93.70. GLGT.

HK Kevin 15:28 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm 15:19 GMT, fantastic. How do you know USD/CAD testing 1.0 level before the Ivey data release.

Makassar Alimin 15:25 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
anyone considers buying euro for a crack of 1.48 again?

madrid mm 15:19 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Bingo !

8-(0 I know I know i had a 33% chance to get it right,
high, low , neutral

dc CB 15:11 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
IVEY drops below 50. 45.9 v last 58.7

USA Zeus 15:00 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 14:39 GMT January 4, 2008

Recession has been certain since Sept 11 2001 just like Bob Prechter's collapse calls that run from years into decades only thing is no one has seen it yet but once it is recognized it is already over.

madrid mm 14:55 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
usd/cad to 1.00 today ?

madrid mm 14:50 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
If i remember well, a few months ago , NFP numbers were revised sharply higher, weren t they ?

HK Kevin 14:50 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Geneva 14:37 GMT January 4, 2008
In 90% of the time the first 2 weeks of Janaury are the High or the low of the year....!
Does this still exist in the InfoAge of forex trading, I dunno.
What I know is 90% of the time, I made a loss in Jan of the year.

madrid mm 14:44 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Wave man i do not know of course. 8-)
FWIW

What i would do in this scenario, I would hedge.

8-)

London NYAM 14:39 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
mm//:) Im only speaking in short time frames. Im still bearish for quite a bit more. Just looking for the bounce potential.

KL FS 14:39 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 14:32 GMT January 4, 2008

i think the only 'certainty' is US recession is definitely coming if we are not in it already, cannot see a reason for stocks to rally anymore

Geneva 14:37 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
In 90% of the time the first 2 weeks of Janaury are the High or the low of the year....!

madrid mm 14:37 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM

let me get my crystal ball out Waveman.....It must be somewhere in the flat .....

8-)

I think the Japanese gentlemen in BoJ, MoF, KAMPo and co are close to a major heart attack IMHO

8-)

madrid mm 14:34 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
...and now we wait 10 am ET....to make another move....
So ,all the way to 1.4850/60 or back to 1.4720/30 ?

8-)

We could get the US$ as the next carry trade currency, couldn t we ?
8-)

London NYAM 14:32 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Im getting one of those little feeling-things: Some of the patterns vs USD could be considered complete on hourlies especially USDJPY. Closed my second half long GBPUSD at 1.9805. I wonder if the martket know moves towards the virtual "certanty" of Fed emergency action fuelling a nice rally mid NY taking USDJPY back up?
Well its a nice story but it im still going to consider some longs in USDJPY in the 107.xx areas. Anyone seeing something similar pattern or otherwise?

KL FS 14:28 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
i like jpy's strength, short eurjpy 160.06 where do you guys see it heading? hopefully a lot more down next week

USA Zeus 14:24 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Ah yes now with $100 oil in focus of media and others, Mr Pickens knows others will join the train ride north and make him a few more bios. LOL

Como Perrie 14:24 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
HK [email protected] 14:05 GMT January 4, 2008

:)) That was the noble prize for It's Drunken Walk Market Theory more likely...

so far I see just lotsa currupted bankers and false stats now some years..which is not a theory but a fact, so do not bother much to listen what is going on every single moment in this pinballing markets... at the end It's just previous tops and bottoms and stops completely detached from market fundamentals now some years...so am looking at those datas to have short term impact as economies are driven by outside forces.....I do not want to take the list here as Its too long, but enough clear to understand for anybody...

have a nice w/e
am getting to finish my vacation and see more seriusly next week...bibi

FW CS 14:15 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
dc CB 13:36 GMT January 4, 2008

Also the phantom BLS Birth and Death model added 66K to the payrolls so the actual number is +18K - 66K = -48 K for the payrolls. Either way the number for this month is bad on top of the seasonal hiring.


http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm

Como Perrie 14:14 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
As I see this market is more sensitive to wars like scenarios than anything else - oil, bombs, terror near key gas zones globe wide etc. the rest does not count much anymore.

Helsinki iw 14:14 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Auckland peat 14:06 GMT January 4, 2008

Why not sell USD/RUB then? You get the additional kicker of an inflation fighting central bank as well. Although Russians are world class shoppers there os no way they can get the country into deficit.

HK [email protected] 14:10 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Auckland peat 14:06 GMT January 4, 2008
censored (who made good calls for 2007) have also predicted oil to 185 this year.
______________________________________________________
That means people will begin to use firewood Espec. in third world countries(where it is on daily use). Goodbye forests goodbye!!!!!!!!!

Auckland peat 14:06 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
S.A.X.O.B.A.Nk

Auckland peat 14:06 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
censored (who made good calls for 2007) have also predicted oil to 185 this year.

My only commodity trades are in silver... I'm long with both physical - silver coins, and virtual on O.anda. av price 14.50

HK [email protected] 14:05 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:54 GMT January 4, 2008

Thus commodity currencies will talk, if you are interested in investing in currency mkt. And better look on the charts rather than listening to drunken traders. GL/GT

EU theEUROqueen 14:05 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Keep selling the usd and relax

happy trade

Geneva 14:05 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
HK [email protected] 14:03 GMT January 4, 2008

Agrea, but big top are never perfect!

HK [email protected] 14:03 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Geneva 13:45 GMT January 4, 2008

It is all in the charets and the charts say Euro to 1.5125 and higher. It was in the charts since 2004.

Como Perrie 13:54 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
I was just watching yesterdays floor commodity traders saying the big oil uptrend has just started... 120 to 200 dollars a barrell

singapore td 13:53 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
this year will be the end of story for carry trades and other markets depending on it

london carl 13:46 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Ofcourse - was just kidding - you were brave to take the trade before data - and you got the reward.

Will be very interesting to see the day candle on GBP at end of day - have some long, but want to add depending on the candle

I believe market has factored in 50bps cut next week - we maybe get 25bps and I am not sure we get any cut - inflation in UK is MUCH HIGHER than official figures - I would only hope BoE idiots realise this

Geneva 13:45 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
We should not forget that all bad news are well priced in.

Gl

London NYAM 13:40 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
carl: Will my humble thanks do? Thank you!

Auckland peat 13:40 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
closed aud/jpy short immediately after figures +81 !
it had done a 78% retracment

still holding Eur/Chf short +341

got stopped on a kiwi short a few minutes before the figures bah!

london carl 13:39 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Nyam - do I get any "commission"???

Glad you changed the stop - well done sir

London NYAM 13:37 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
out of half gbpusd 1.9835 let the rest go. stop under todays low.

NY Rob 13:37 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
guess Fed will need to cut few more times now, they are censored

dc CB 13:36 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Private payrolls fell 18,000,
Gov’t jobs rose 31,000
Manufacturing jobs fell 31,000
Construction jobs fell 49,000

HK [email protected] 13:36 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Things are becoming clearer now!!! That is a black hole!!!

Cape Town DK 13:33 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Thanks for all the answers and help about my request for news! I appreciate it!

dc CB 13:32 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Happy New Year all.

No wonder Bush/Paulason/Benanke are meeting today.

08:30 ECONX Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs 4.8% consensus
08:30 ECONX Nonfarm Payrolls 18K vs 70K consensus, prior revised to 115K from 94K

jkt-aye 13:31 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
+18K, 5%

London NYAM 13:31 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
18k vs 70k expected...
stopped out on my eurgbp short.

JAK BOND 13:22 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Has the info on nfp had leaked out alredy?

Coz the price action is hot.......

Makassar Alimin 13:19 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Bali teddybear 13:13 GMT January 4, 2008

that straddle strategy does not always work, you need good follow-ups for that to work, usually you will have knee-jerk reaction followed by big reversal in which case you have the worst position if order was executed, be careful out there

madrid mm 13:17 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
15 minutes to go and they are already "swinging" !!!

NYAM are you at it again, moving your zillions ?
8-)

Bali teddybear 13:13 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Ok got it guys.I think if we have a limit/stop new position is a safety way to have opportunity. Limit buy on 1.4782..if NFP confirm in making usd weak, we've already get into it. And stop sell on 1.4685 if NFP confirm in making usd strong. Good luck 4 u guys...

The Netherlands Purk 13:13 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
e/j : 14680 for a break lower and 14788 for break higher.
We will know soon. Made my pips already by far to wait for the range. Because Friday sometimes give little chances for 20's...

Como Perrie 13:07 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
for those usdcad short watch out later on IVY indicators...usd might rise into there...NFPs I'll not trade as of yet as am relatively inactive as the forex market searches for Itself...just doubt there are many opportunities left in the forex short term trading for the year 2008...so am looking elsewhere.. just watching the forex marmelade developing making less sense in values the more the world economies get moribound..but an NFP rebound cant be excluded for the many medicines the patient is getting

happy new year

GVI john 12:57 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
from GVI..

US jobs Preview...

London NYAM 12:55 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
NS mm//I would'nt enjoy this without you two. Lets see if we get some fireworks.

Bali teddybear 12:55 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 12:44 GMT January 4, 2008
Thx NYAM. So it's clearly people are waiting for the falling of NFP...so the dollar falls.I agree with u to wait and see the lower level of eur/usd to buy.It seems 1.4580 will be closely to reach. But i don't know yet about the support level. I only have one reason to have short on eur/usd...the Trichet's testimony last month which is told that ECB won't take a tolerance to see another inflation on eur.

Mumbai NS 12:52 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
NYAM oh ok on the house ....on euro i think u are on same boat as me except i look at 1.4640 and 1.4780 as lvls to watch for now before concluding anything now .....on beast maybe u maybe rite but i am very bearish there so donot wan't to influence ur thot tks for the view gud trades gl gt

madrid mm 12:51 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM, you are starting to confuse some people again
LOL

8-)

You remind me that succesful traders develop their own trading systems. They do not blindly follow those of others.

Keep up the good work, and remember we are here to propose, not justify...

Now with all the zillions from your Fulham home, time to buy Northern rock, isn t it ? 8-(0

I used to live in Earl's court a long long time ago.... So many Aussies, Kiwis , SA, etc... Lovely place and lovely people

London NYAM 12:44 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Hey NS// New house not yet purchased (nor found). Fortunately we have other arrangements.
I bailed my long EUR this morning as it started to get mucky to me as well. My instinct tells me its likely to remain pressured today and not see much real trending move untill 1.4780 and 1.4580 brackets are tested. Since we are on the high end if you had to trade it i suppose it would be short. The beast looks like it may be attempting a bust upward, if the figures are to help one would suspect that it would also aid the Eur.
On the longer term basis i am still bearish dollar so i am looking for lowere eur levels to buy into if seen.
Good trades to you my friend.

London NYAM 12:34 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Canada NN 12:26 GMT January 4, 2008
Maybe...
london carl 12:24 GMT January 4, 2008
Thanks Carl. Hlpful post. Indeed I have taken your advise and lowered one stop.
San Diego FXN 12:22
thanks ibid as above. line in the sand for me is below todays low.

Bali teddybear 12:33 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
I'm trying to get some good advise and ofcourse to have same perception on eur/usd.

Are u guys get long on eur/usd? or short on eur/usd?

The US ADP is falling down under the previous level. And the initial jobless claims fell down also. Which one impact the non farm payroll.There's one data have make me confuse. Initial jobless claim or jobless claim to have a big impact on strong/week usd?

In my perception, ADP fell down, Initial jobless claim rise up, US non farm payroll should be fell down, and USD get weak vs eur, gbp or aud.But when ADP fell down, initial jobless claim fell down, US non farm payroll should be rise up, and storng USD.

What about u guys..?I need ur comments on this...

San Diego FXN 12:32 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
9740 hit

Mumbai NS 12:31 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
NYAM hi mate how u doing hope ur new house brings u even more gud luck and what thots euro if any i am quite confused like many though a bit clearer on the beast glgt

Canada NN 12:26 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 12:14 GMT January 4, 2008
long GBP again? Seem you really like GBP, but long GBP is really risky... see after the big rebound, back to 1.9750. down is more easier than down, buddy.

london carl 12:24 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Hello Nyam - I have read many of your posts - you make some nice trades - keep up the good work

Question though: why put on this order before NFP - the stop can be taken on a whip within the first few minutes after the data - then move your way.

I know you have not traded past few days - why not just wait one more hour - see which way the wind blows - then make the trade

Good luck

San Diego FXN 12:22 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
pretty tight stop with NFP just an hour or so away

London NYAM 12:14 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Just went long GBPUSD .9763 stop under 1.9740 and short Eurgbp .7445 stop above .7460.

Auckland peat 12:02 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
A prosperous New Year to you all.

Philadelphia Caba 11:38 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
eur/gbp: imo, we can see another test of 7500 today or early next week .. following by profit taking before BoE ...

Hong Kong Qindex 11:31 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The congested area of the daily cycle is projected at 0.7435 - 0.7492. A projected supporting point is positiong at 0.7427.

London NYAM 11:27 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm 11:20// ;) Just my overpriced 4 bedoom hous ein Fulham. Im looking to buy that manoir by the sea once reality bites. Unless of course Mr Brown forces the bank to cut rates really aggressively...then of course i will be spanked.

madrid mm 11:24 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
China Will Take Steps to Cool Economic Growth in 2008, Central Bank Says - blmbrg

Ok, does that mean the economic growth will go from 15% per year to 14.8 % ?
And the Olympic Games are looming large in the horizon .....

8-)

Hong Kong Qindex 11:21 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
GBP/CHF : The market is positive when it is above the congested area of the daily cycle projected at 2.1440 - 2.1780. Short term targeting points are 2.2156 and 2.2173.

madrid mm 11:20 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM, you sold your 55 rooms "Manoir" in the highlands to move in closer to sea to surf the waves ?

8-)

madrid mm 11:18 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Cape Town DK, the people of this web are the ones to talk to. If i may and FWIW i have access to bloomberg TV via a p2p...

The Netherlands Purk 11:18 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
NYAM,

I AM long, just closed possies from down under...

London NYAM 10:41 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
BAY//Sorry Ive been busy and have only just gottn back to the desk. My input would be a little late now.
Purk//you looking to go long cable?
To me it has likely bottomed. Decent reversal off a good looking five waver. Could have quite a way to go. Not to mention the topping out of EURGBP.
Ive been moving from my sold house these past few days and its been difficult to post. But its been better for my bottom line. No position on but just like everyone else on the forum im looking at the beast.

The Netherlands Purk 10:35 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 07:01 GMT January 4, 2008
Ready to take more positions in cable, but i will wait. 19796 will be in the radar today so that is where i will close all positions.

I will keep one open, rest is closed. So the only profit i can post is that one from in the 35's in cable.

Where is Paris IB now?
I sincerely trust that NOONE is following the calls of mr. Sand man. Of course he can be right sometimes, but if you have a mini account you are wiped out by now by his 19699 short call.

NY Rob 10:33 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
waiting for friday's action, let's see if we can get a gift of short eurjpy above 161.80 and at the same time DJI above 13180 later on

Makassar Alimin 10:28 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, may I get your contact details from Jay? Got something to discuss with you. Thanks in advance.

St. Annaland Bob 10:17 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Cape Town DK 10:01 GMT January 4, 2008

just email [email protected] and you will get the very best possible deal ... you will be happy with the quality, service and price ... good luck!

NY NY 10:14 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Cape Town DK 10:01

send GV webmaster an email at [email protected] will have some suggestions. Some good alternatives out there.

tokyo ginko 10:04 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
if u need faster, subsribe to reuter feeds or bloomberg feeds

tokyo ginko 10:03 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
turn on your bloomberg TV or CNBC

Cape Town DK 10:01 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Can anyone tell me where do you get the results of the news the quickest way like the unemployment figures, etc.?

Hong Kong Qindex 10:00 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Resistance at 221.69

As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is working on the lower barrier at 214.88 // 216.24*. The monthly cycle normal trading range is 210.79 - 232.60. The market may head for 210.79 when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 213.52.

madrid mm 09:55 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
I feel like a techie again this am... Must be the NFP effect....

8-)

EUR/USD

1.4845 29 Nov high
1.4781 Thurs high
1.4685 Thurs low
1.4620/40 intraday level
1.4568 Mon low

madrid mm 09:41 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Patience is the companion of wisdom.
- St. Augustine

Mumbai NS 09:30 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
1.9648 gud support atm

Mumbai NS 09:29 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
NN it's a sell rallies imho first target 1.9475 next shuld be 1.9170 won't rule out further drop also glgt

Canada NN 09:27 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Mumbai NS 09:20 GMT January 4, 2008
Thanks for the telling, may I know your view in GBP? any rebound possibility? If not, then next downside target is 1.9590?

Canada NN 09:25 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 09:22 GMT January 4, 2008
CT Cris, yep, you are right, how come you changed your name?

Also, 1.9750 is a buying level? GBP seems too weak and impossible to go it back to 2.00


Amman wfakhoury 09:22 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Canada NN 09:16 GMT January 4, 2008
====
stop loss is the confirmation of buy level 19750. normally I am hedging at this level . also Iam selling another at intervals 25-30 pips.
====
no I am not isr...my log in was CT Cris.

Mumbai NS 09:20 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
NN there is ntg like how much room left if u see historically sterling in past has risen 1 way from 1.55 to 1.91 likewise has fallen frm 2 to 1.76 so there is ntg like how much room left there is ample gud luck gud trades gl gt

Amman wfakhoury 09:16 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Florida cm 09:05 GMT January 4, 2008
=====
cm ..I may reply if you are inches or more ..as cm is not visible.

Canada NN 09:16 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 09:10 GMT January 4, 2008
Because you said "confirmed to short GBP", just thinking how many rooms left for GBP drops? Because already dropped more than 1200pips in one month. Besides, may I know the stop loss level? Are you the person previously named isr?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:13 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market is under pressure when it isbelow 217.61. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 213.77 - 217.33. Projected supporting points are expected at 210.96 and 212.26.

Amman wfakhoury 09:10 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Canada NN 09:05 GMT January 4, 2008

what you mean by confidence level?

Florida cm 09:05 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 07:46 GMT January 4, 2008
Where is your stop Fakhead?..or you place a wide stop for a 20 pip gain...or you keep adding until it turns but by then you are added out and the account is gone.....use some freaking sense and stop these idiotic calls....

Canada NN 09:05 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 07:46 GMT January 4, 2008
may I know the confidence level?

Canada NN 09:04 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
may I know the confidence level?

Amman wfakhoury 07:46 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 07:38 GMT January 4, 2008
gbp.usd
====
sell level confirmed @ 19700 tp 19650-19600
=========
sold @ 19694

Amman wfakhoury 07:38 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
gbp.usd
====
sell level confirmed @ 19700 tp 19650-19600

madrid mm 07:09 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Have a gr8 day Jedi.
may the force be with you all !!

"Don't let yesterday take up to much of today."

madrid mm 07:05 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
* Pres George Bush will meet with Treasury Sec Henry Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke today as he considers whether to announce a new economic stimulus package amid slowing growth. Pres Bush will speak to reporters after the 1 pm meeting at the White House with members of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - BBG.

* Senator Barack Obama winning the Iowa Democratic caucus, defeating former First Lady Hillary Clinton. - NBC News. While former Governor Mike Huckabee won the Republican caucus in Iowa - US media.

* USD/JPY first fixing of 2008, for the first trading day of 2008, set at 109.28 - sharply lower from its last Fixing of 2007, on December 28, which was 114.15.

* FSA Minister Yoshimi Watanabe says Japanese stocks are relatively cheap with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 15.

* WSJ Fed Watcher Greg Ip: Fed's Inflation Fears Might Trump Calls for Another Big Rate Cut, Monetary-Policy Makers Appear to Have Less Room To Maneuver Than in Past: Slowing factory activity, weakening job growth and a credit crunch have investors expecting aggressive interest-rate cuts from the Fed.

* FT: Sweeping powers to intervene in failing banks are to be given to FSA as part of a regulatory shake-up by Chan Alistair Darling to avoid a repeat of the Northern Rock crisis. The new measures - which echo those in place in the US - would allow the FSA to seize and protect depositors' cash when a bank gets into serious difficulty, heading off the risk of a run on the bank.

* FT: A secretive HK-based subsidiary of China's SAFE, manager of the world's largest FX reserves, has bought stakes in three of Australia's largest banks - ANZ, CBA, NAB.

* Choppy trading today with the "partial" return of Japanese traders after the NY holidays. USD/JPY bidded initially as the Japanese importers bought USD/JPY after recent falls, pushing it to 109.55-60, before the "diving" Nikkei - which is playing catchup with recent Wall Street falls - reopening today and falling >5%. Swiss, US investment houses sold USD/JPY to 108.78 lows, pushing all Cross/JPY lower. Japanese mega-city banks, US funds then bot dips, pushing it back up back to 109.00-05.

* Further buying in afternoon session by US money center banks, funds, in Cross/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, pushed USD/JPY up.

USD/JPY hit 109.45-48, with Cross/JPY, sentiment also boosted focus on Pres George Bush, Trsy Henry Paulson, Fed Ben Bernanke meet, after the US NFP data, for any positive stimulus package to the US economy, stocks. AUD rose initially on FT article of China's stake in Aust banks, before US inv houses, funds, sold AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY.

It rebounded again in afternoon session. EUR, EUR/JPY eye Eurozone coupons due today, with EUR/JPY off 5-wk lows 109.75, now 160.90. GBP weighed by rising EUR/GBP, heavy GBP/JPY.

Nikkei closed -4.03%, -616.37pts at 16-m lows 14,691.41 as Nikkei played catch-up after NY holidays, on first day of trading for 2008 - shortened trading. JGBs firm up on Nikkei fall, 10-yr yield -0.035% 1.465%.

Crude oil firm at $99.32, Gold near all time highs, $863.70/50.

The Netherlands Purk 07:01 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Ready to take more positions in cable, but i will wait. 19796 will be in the radar today so that is where i will close all positions.

madrid mm 06:56 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Hola n GM FX Jedi from around the world !!!

Iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiittttttttttttttt'''''''ssssssssssss NFP day !! Yehaaaaa

8-)

keyboard .....Check
Mouse.....Check
Screen....check
coffee pot ...check

We might get some gr8 waves today ...or not !!

The Netherlands Purk 06:55 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Paris ib 01:08 GMT January 4, 2008
The Netherlands Purk 20:29 GMT January 3, 2008
Purky...another Confucius say.." Man who put cart before horse suffers more pre mature entry ".. this is a condition that the gbp will not cure for you son....may be Mrs Clog can....Bon soire Monsieur Purky...

Well here another Purk saying: I just trade and therefor take risks, whatever direction this may be.

Amman wfakhoury 05:38 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
market will be weak in movement and reaction for fundimentals
same as some traders.

Makassar Alimin 05:22 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
target on short usdjpy reached at 108.88, now reversing from 109.38 for 109.88 later on stop 108.98

USA Zeus 04:49 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Next week and the week after will offer massive volatility in FX, commodities and equities. Trade your hearts out. Don't hold back when the system says to take action.....crush it!!

USA Zeus 04:47 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
That means a ST buy for U/J, E/J, G/J

USA Zeus 04:44 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
hk ab 03:20 GMT January 4, 2008

Yes am prepared to buy and hedge if it triggers. Levels are dynamic but right now that looks like 1.9744 area for a swing/scalp higher then SAR lower.

Otherwise if that upper trigger does not fire will add to core shorts if 1.9677 gets taken for a push lower then SAR higher as a hedge on the core.

Either way a rally is coming 100% for sure.
As for gold I'd keep an eye on Comex contracts at 863 for a SAR.

Oil is a buy buy buy at any level under $100 for a crack higher
Looks like Yen will not continue to strengthen today. More likely to weaken.

Cheers!

Hong Kong Qindex 04:37 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is below 161.55. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 159.07 - 161.43. It is likely that the market is heading towards 159.45. A projected supporting point is expected at 158.26.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:57 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is under pressure when it is below 0.9961. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 0.9805 - 0.9917. Projected supporting points are 0.9795 and 0.9775.

Canada NN 03:45 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
hk ab 03:15 GMT January 4, 2008
Hope you are right! If possible, please notify us when is a good time to buy GBP

Mumbai NS 03:32 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Feel 1.9985 is a gud trail stop now for a gud move glgt

hk ab 03:20 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
zeus., u meant buying right?

USA Zeus 03:18 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
london jp 02:07 GMT January 4, 2008
Am still positioned core short from 2.11+ However I am hedging down to 1.9677. If that breaks I'll stop and add for a throttle lower.

hk ab 03:15 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
tech side, I see a double bottom forming in progress in 4 hrs chart.
+ some interesting action on dlr/jpy, so once gb/jp get out of the limbo, gbp will fly again.

cleburne tx.usa 03:13 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
GBP/USD GOING UP OR DOWN (I'm newbie)

Canada NN 03:12 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
london jp 02:43 GMT January 4, 2008
hk ab 02:18 GMT January 4, 2008
you two also planniing to buy GBP? the technical and fundamental are very weak

Syd 03:05 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Households and businesses face a "debt famine" this year, experts warned last night after the Bank of England reported a sharp drop in banks' willingness to lend cash.
The worrying news "significantly" raises the likelihood of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee cutting interest rates to 5.25pc as soon as next week in an effort to prevent economic growth sliding into negative territory, economists said. It also underlines the gloomy fate facing the housing market, where prices are already falling.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=DJRZZBA2
MK44BQFIQMFCFGGAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2008/01/04/cncredit104.xml

Hong Kong Qindex 02:55 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 0.8817. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 0.8699 - 0.8857. Projected supporting points are expected at 0.8631 and 0.8657.

HK [email protected] 02:50 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Simple computation from chart gazing and other calcu. shows that canadian is targeting the range [0.9450,94.80] I mean for those who may be willing to wait he he. The condition is that CAD will not break above 99.70 (or Yday high).

This view for CAD will get reinforcement if euro will break above 1.48, as the CAD will track it. The first target for euro than may even reach to 1.52++

The difference between the two currencies is, that the Euro is an overvalued technical-entity where the CAD is a single currency with some fat in it.

A little bit longer view(hope until end of Jan) CAD can develop an impulse price even down to 0.9170. that if happens may fit for euro at about 1.60. On top of all the interest paid for CAD on deposits is good enough to bring buyers.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:47 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.4800. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.4620 - 1.4656. Projected supporting points are expected at 1.4484 and 1.4520. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 1.4504 - 1.4789 and the mid-point reference is 1.4647.

london jp 02:45 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
hk ab 02:44 GMT January 4, 2008
thanks hk ab I will take a look now.

hk ab 02:44 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
I posted some views in Future Forum.
jp.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:44 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
memphis PK 02:37 GMT : Use the following in the Asian session. I will update it later today.


Hong Kong Qindex 09:49 GMT January 3, 2008
Subject:
EUR/JPY : The daily cycle congested area is projected at 158.20 - 162.26 and the mid-point reference is 160.23.

london jp 02:43 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
hk ab 02:18 GMT January 4, 2008
Zeus, sharing the same view on buying GBP...
Let's see.

Puzzled as to what I am missing here ?.....

memphis PK 02:37 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex:

any view on eur/jpy plz? thanks.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:31 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.9763. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.9630 - 1.9661. It is likely that the market will head for 1.9519. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 1.9553 - 1.9789. Projected supporting points are 1.9421 and 1.9486.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:24 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is below 109.23. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 107.67 - 110.66 and the mid-point reference is 109.17. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 108.11. Projected supporting points are expected at 107.25 and 107.73.

hk ab 02:18 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, sharing the same view on buying GBP...

Let's see.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:14 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.1109. The daily cycle congested area is projected at 1.1044 - 1.1172. My bias is on the downside. Projected supporting points are 1.0850 and 1.0900.

HK [email protected] 02:09 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
HK [email protected] 10:18 GMT January 3, 2008
Lahore FM 10:04 GMT January 3, 2008

............................................. It was wise to buy CAD today though I dont make it a call for people to buy now.............................
_________________________________________________________
I want to add today one more thing which is only a general statement. That the US economy is looking like responding fast positively to the weakening of the USD, so lot of order for export will emerge and inflow of forex for cheaper priced investments. That will benefit the CAD. In case of weakening USD the higher commodities contribute too. Good or bad US economy the CAD, looks a good bet, actually better than all other commodity currencies.
____________________________________________________________

london jp 02:07 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 23:02 GMT January 3, 2008
Fundies are buying GBP/USD at this level.

how do you know as not a lot of movement upwards - looks more down to me......would like to be wrong though ........

USA Skeptic 00:34 GMT January 4, 2008 Reply   
If this level of forum activity is any indication of overall market activity, there is absolutley no depth whatever to it. Buyers (and sellers) beware.

 




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