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Forex Forum Archive for 01/06/2008

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cleburne tx.usa 22:44 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
any open posicion?

Syd 21:55 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
NZ Nov Goods Trade Deficit NZ$646M; Consensus -NZ$445M

Syd 21:31 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
Brown warns of 'dangerous' year for economy

The Netherlands Purk 19:56 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
Thanks NYAM. I have stops at 14841 if i have any positions because i just closed the last short.
I will wait for 14770 again to short if seen, otherwise i will long at the end of the range.

London NYAM 17:50 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
Alimin & Stan// I currently have a small short on gbp from 1.9750 and frankly its my least favourite position. Its right in the middle of the zone so i tightened up OCO stop and limit. I do like my short Eur and my short Eur gbp which sort of tells you what i think about cable indirectly. As you may know im not convinced that cable is going to dump (at least not right away). there is a lot of support clustering between 1.96 and 1.9670 and we have possibly completed 5 waves from 2.0830 high from Nov 28th. To prove the first leg down was a wave 1 and not 3-wave (start of a Flat) we would have stay below 2.0175. in any case we could see the eur go one way and the gbp go another. I can only talk fundamentals Stan in hypotheticals becuase you can, in my opinion argue for anything as a cause after the fact, but my guess would be the fear of inflation (again).
Purk// regarding Eurusd. I think it has very likely completed five waves up from the lows of the 20th in the 1.43 zone. Add to that that the move down from the big high 1.49xx was in a corrective pattern, i am pretty sure of two things; one we are going to break 1.500 and 2; we need to correct this first move by more than what we have seen. i will t/p my shorts between 1.46 and 1.47 and watch dor signs of a reversal to go long with slightly larger positions.
Also USDCAD looks like a ood s/t but to 1.0045/60 but thats just a baby one.

The Netherlands Purk 17:26 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
NYAM. You do this wave thingy. I still have one short open, do not want to lose the profit on that one. Pattern says that we will go up again tomorrow, but not sure where it will turn for your 14705. What does your magice wave thingy say?


Amman wfakhoury 15:32 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
is heading twd 14990 then will start reverse.

Amman wfakhoury 15:27 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
is heading twd 1.4990

isle of man stan 13:44 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM
I commute between Florida and the IOM and whilst I am a lamb in a pride of lions, underlying all that is going on, we are in an election year in the USA which means for certain that the dollar will NOT be weak by mid summer ?????? even if that means introducing a 50 MPH speed limit again, AND when you look at the state of the UK and the outlook there I can see no reason why the GBP should not be down to 180 or less by then , also as we have business all over Europe and see the mess that they are really in I reckon all options are open.

Norway e.s 12:29 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 12:56 GMT January5,
Thank you very much!

Amman wfakhoury 06:25 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
new carry trade session will start @ level 212.00-213.00

Amman wfakhoury 06:14 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
19650 is the turning point to up again.

Makassar Alimin 04:55 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 00:33 GMT January 6, 2008

in such event, where do you see gbpusd heading to? 1.9190 perhaps?

London NYAM 00:33 GMT January 6, 2008 Reply   
Kapricorn//I know it sounds odd but I like to look at the charts first and then ask myslef how it the moves I expect will be reported after the fact rather than try and decide what is around the corner first. Honestly wouldnt have a clue otherwise.
In any case, there seems to be some growing suggestion for a short term dollar strengthening (but maybe not yet against the yen). It may just be long enough to get the journalists out with a contra theme. i suspect the theme will be political risk and the age-old safe-haven status of the dollar. Then just when that seems right we get right on back to the Fed cuts etc.
With 20 hours to go before the new week and time to study (i really prefer weekend breaks to get a good medium term view) I think we have seen a point at which dollar bears will take profit and dollar bulls given strength from the recent reversals adding to their shorts and perhaps over-extending themselves (too early to really tell).
Purk//thank you. One thing, i like Eurusd to at least 1.4705, break that, and its 1.4630/55. Ill start thinking of reversing around there. stops still look good at 1,4805 as the Dr Q suggests but perhaps even lower at 1.4778 bid.
Eurgbp is the big clue and Caba knows it.
Good luck people.


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