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Forex Forum Archive for 01/13/2008

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Syd 23:54 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
Upward pressure on Australian consumer prices intensify in December as costs of rent, fuel increase, adding to case for RBA rate rise on Feb. 5. TD-MI inflation gauge +0.6% in December from +0.3% in November; annual gauge +3.7% in month, suggesting annual inflation trending above RBA's 2%-to-3% target band. RBA votes on monetary policy Feb. 5, market currently split on likelihood central bank will lift rates 25bp to 7.0%, though gloomy global economic outlook, financial market losses remain caveat to case for tightening.

Auckland peat 23:43 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
I've still got a 20 pip spread on Kiwi and 10 on Eur . WTF?

oh well isnt a good time to be kickin off new trades anyway. On the weekend I spotted a bearish Gartley on the daily for USD/HKD. 3 months of falling during Aug,Sep,Oct was 78.2% retraced by Jan. This pattern can identify a low risk trading opportunity
So I will be looking to sell into rallies on this cross this week with stop around 7.84
There is a smaller time scale version of this bearish Gartley forming since Jan 3rd as well.

isr jweb 23:37 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
they shouldnt be now. early in trading sometimes due to vloatile trading. now it should be ok

Auckland peat 23:35 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
spreads are twice what they usually are on a Monday morning ???

Tallinn viies 22:11 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
good eevening. eurusd chart looks promising.
buying here at 1,4780-85 with stop under 1,4755 previous day low offers good risk reward opportunity if to beilve charts which indicate that it shouldnt be tooo complicated to break higher from last week high.

Syd 21:17 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
Sydney ACC totally agree with your post ,feel also the election may help the dollar , as you say it wont happen immediately but can see some seachanges in the making later in the year :-))

Mtl JP 21:15 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
Syd 20:32, that is one good piece of hind-sight entertaining reading. W/ ref to "Inflation fears are subsiding fast.", they are bound to bite and get some traction at some point nevertheless: General Mills braces for costly commodities
Prices jumped last year due to demand for animal feed, which is made from corn; analyst says grain will jump 44% this year.

grain.. arrgghh.. beer, whisky...

Sydney ACC 21:13 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
Syd 20:32 GMT January 13, 2008
An interesting article from a historical perspective.
Current events provide a somewhat different mix of circumstances.
Since Bush was inaugurated real wages in the US have remained fixed at 2000 levels, last figure I saw was that average wages had risen one cent an hour in real terms. Equities and real estate are at higher levels admittedly although both of these are declining and are predicted to fall further.
What is occurring is a depreciation of asset values the magnitude of which only time will tell. A significant proportion of peoples' assets is being lost, lower interest rates in such circumstances are unlikely to help.
A recession in the US bringing with it declining consumption levels is probably what the domestic economy really needs. So while Us consumption falls and brings with it a reduction in Asian imports, it will give the US a real chance to address the trade deficit.
Given that a change in the US administration will bring a new resolve to address the budget deficit, maybe there is light at the end of tunnel to the dollar's decline. That is not to say we are there at the moment.
I just reckon cutting rates is not going to the panacea many think it will be to revitalise the economy.

PAR 21:02 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
Deflation in Tokyo.

Japan considers 30% price hike for imported wheat .Fukui watching closely and carefully?

Syd 20:32 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
Anna Schwartz blames Fed for sub-prime crisis
As rebukes go in the close-knit world of central banking, few hurt as much as the scathing indictment of US Federal Reserve policy by Professor Anna Schwartz.

Click Here

Cbj Jake 20:30 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak (11:11) - That's also my understanding. A question of a good man,Gartman, being idolized. By traders?

isr jweb 20:08 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
anyone got an idea for the surest bet for this week?

isr jweb 19:39 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
thanks amman.

Amman wfakhoury 17:42 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 15:34 GMT January 13, 2008
usd.chf heading twd 10990-10750

Mtl JP 16:53 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak / patience shall have its rewards; citi still on track to $10 or less:

Escalating Losses Force Citigroup to Seek More Foreign Investment - NY Times (01/12/2008)
Citi looks to secure further $14bn in new capital - FT (01/12/2008)

isr jweb 15:34 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
has anyone got any inside info on usd/chf. something bright? are we heading strongly fo 1.08? is this an all time high for the currency?

isr jweb 11:36 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
euro queen, whos selling?. were all buying, buying buying, aggressively, until we approach 1.6 at least.

EU theEUROqueen 11:32 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
every trader in the world is selling the Euros BUT the euro still on this high levels??..hmm!!?? so the real money still dumping the usd and me too we are selling the usd we still do belive thats the 1Q will be bad one for the usd ...

happy trade

Mumbai Deepak 11:11 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   

I found one small mistake on the home page of the Global-view learning center website, and It is my duty to inform you.

The Quote on "Markets can remain illogical longer than we can remain solvent" has been attributed to Dennis Gartman. However, it was first said by John Maynard Keynes. If you guys can correct it, then it would be great.

Mumbai Deepak 10:55 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
[i]As we know, there are known knowns. There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say we know there some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know. [/i]

Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary of Defense, 12 Feb-2002, Dept of defense news briefing.

USA Zeus 02:41 GMT January 13, 2008 Reply   
Forget the last comment if his (Skeptic) archive is now going to be altered for appropriateness after re-posting it here. It takes away from the purpose and meaning.


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