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Forex Forum Archive for 01/16/2008

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Syd 23:53 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Historical relationship between NZ CPI, Australian CPI suggests 4Q inflation pressures in Australia may be higher than original market expectations, ICAP chief economist Matthew Johnson says. Notes correlation "very good over the last few years"; if links hold expect domestic 4Q Australian CPI around +1.2% from 3Q, in line with 4Q NZ headline CPI. Says "Australian domestic inflation pressures are probably a touch higher than the equivalent Kiwi pressures." Economists expect headline 4Q Australian CPI +0.9%, core CPI +0.8%, according to survey. Data due 0030 GMT Jan. 23
Dow Jones

Syd 23:46 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
DJ Lead Nikkei Futures Open Up 65 Points At 13570 On SGX

London NYAM 23:11 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
great job jj. leaving some limit buys in gbp/jpy and usdjpy. stops in between for partials and ultimate stop at the lows. may hear a bellfor the orders and check in to see how ff is doing. glgt.

lkwd jj 23:04 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
nyam closed shorts here @40 . left orders to buy @20.

London NYAM 22:52 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
yes jj ive started buying. the move is corrective so it is signalling higher levels are yet to be completed. IF it gets to the 382 retrace level i will consider buying again.

lkwd jj 22:47 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM pivot in $Y is @107.20. have bids there to close 107.50+ shorts. think this thing might have bottomed.

Syd 22:47 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
DJ US Sen: Bernanke Indicated He Would Support Stimulus Package

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told a key lawmaker that he would support a fiscal stimulus package designed to give a quick boost to the softening U.S. economy.

At a Joint Economic Committee hearing, Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., described a telephone conversation he had with Bernanke on Monday.

"He said that fiscal stimulus is certainly needed and he would be generally supportive of the Congress and the president enacting such a stimulus," Schumer said. "He said that while he wasn't going to endorse a specific plan, if an economic stimulus package was properly designed and enacted so that it enters the economy quickly, it could have a very positive effect on the economy."

Bernanke is scheduled to testify before the House Budget Committee on Thursday.

canmore cyclops 22:39 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM and BAY for what its worth I just went long (small) GBP/JPY at 210.85 but using tight stop especially considering this pair. I think 212 + is in the cards

London NYAM 22:36 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
BAY//maybe now for a contra 110.82 bid? but stops in

US SW 22:33 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
LOL...thanx...I love this site...I appricate all of your comment..
I making more money now then ever and with out you and some others help..I doughbt Id ever turn a good profit

FBI Please leave SW alone 22:31 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Thank you....I don't what to get kicked off this board...all your ideas are great and is educating me

IRS Chief officer (now fired) 22:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US SW -- relax, was just joking. good trades to you.

Alaska Moon 22:29 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US SW 22:27 GMT January 16, 2008
=======
I think it is just some JOKESTER......
Moon

US SW 22:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
why would the web master need my email address, am I not postiong correctly or something

US SW 22:23 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
did I not post correctly

US SW 22:22 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
why??

IRS Chief officer 22:19 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US SW 22:16 GMT January 16, 2008
do any of you traders trade for a living.....(living off Profits)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

is it ok with you if I ask the web master for your email address?

US SW 22:16 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
do any of you traders trade for a living.....(living off Profits)

London NYAM 22:14 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
id rather wait to see how the cross contends with 210.88 if at all. if it breaks that there maybe better levels to get in if you beleive we are going to see higher levels anyway.

USA BAY 22:09 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NZ ECON: NZ Q4 CPI Jumps 1.2%, Increases Risks Of Tightening Sydney, January 17. New Zealand's inflation surged in the December quarter with headline CPI rising 1.2%, ahead of the median market forecast for a 1.0% rise and IFR's more dovish 0.7% expectation. Against a year earlier, prices rose 3.2%, up from 1.8% in September for the strongest rise since September 2006. Underlying measures were also strong, with the trimmed mean rising a firm 1.1% over the quarter and 3.0% on the year, right at the top of the RBNZ's 1-3% target range. The data certainly raises the risk that the RBNZ will be forced to lift rates again to keep a grip on inflation--it has not moved since concluding a 100bp tightening move from March to July 2007, but it does not seem that there has been much of a response from either the real sector or price

USA BAY 22:04 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London Nyam,

Thanks a lot Nyam, gbp/jpy seems to have passed the pyshological level/barrier at 210, so dont know to long here though tempted. Let me know if you are taking a trade on gbp/jpy. 206.50 seems to be a good support, medium term for the pair. GT/GL

US SW 21:58 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Question....if the Market go's adead with this long term correction like the DJI to 11000 how does that usually effect the dollar...strenghten or weeken?

London NYAM 21:54 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
nice BAY! Awesome trade! No im watching not trading (although all this talk of selling yen makes me want to...).

USA BAY 21:51 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

HI NYAM, I was short eur/gbp at 7558 then closed it for 11 pips loss , re-entered at 7545 closed at 7460. Are you long gbp/jpy?

London NYAM 21:48 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
how ever much you want is a good average. depends on your time frame, your level if time invested, your ambition, your stress levels, your average loss, your frequency of losses, your string of losses record,....really cant say, but sounds good. :)

Syd 21:47 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NZ 4Q Consumer Price Index +1.2% On Qtr; Consensus +1.0%
NZ 4Q Consumer Price Index +3.2% On Yr; Consensus +3.0%
NZ 4Q Non-Tradables Component +0.7% On Qtr; +3.5% On Yr
NZ 4Q Tradables Component +1.8% On Qtr; +2.8% On Yr
Dowjonses

Syd 21:46 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
DJ NZ 4Q Consumer Price Index +3.2% On Yr; Consensus +3.0%

US SW 21:44 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
look down NY AM

US SW 21:44 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
I have been averaging a 7 percent gain on 5k is this ok for ok for a newbie. before trading the forex I traded the Q's or QQQQ, QID ect..or the stock market Idexes using the Proshare. Im just wondering if this is a good profit average.

London NYAM 21:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
the liklihood of the latter case increase after a break of 107.90 so maybe a contingency plan. I have traded a whuile but i just sound like i know what im talking about becuase mu/our job is to have an opinion. helps psychologically to stick with a trade plan but my analysis is just as vulnerable to being wrong as yours.

Syd 21:29 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Dow Jones The RBNZ would take little comfort from a lower-than-expected 4Q CPI outcome and be more nervous should the number come on higher side today, says ASB Bank chief economist Nick Tuffley; adds on-year inflation risks staying above 3% through to end of 2009, closer to 3% in 2010 as government's emissions trading scheme lifts fuel and energy costs. "Given how prolonged the period of high inflation is likely to be, interest rate cuts look like less of a 2008 story and more one for early 2009, with March 2009 a more conceivable start to the eventual easing cycle." CPI Data due at 1045 NZT, 2145 GMT.

London NYAM 21:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
no idea just watch out, still a chance that it extends directly to 108.50 area before it drops.

Syd 21:26 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Australia's job market served up a further 20,000 new jobs in December, according to average of economists forecasts, further confirming strength of domestic economy and ongoing resilience of consumer demand despite rate hikes in late 2007. A strong employment report, due 0030 GMT, especially if backed by solid gain in full-time employment will steer markets toward more hawkish bets, especially as 4Q CPI number Wednesday are tipped to show core inflation above the RBA's 2%-to-3% band. dow

US SW 21:21 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
thax NY AM....thank you for your help..I will be paying more attentions to your post..seem like you'be been trading currency for some time...by the way do you use Trailing Stope or do you just ajust your own?

US SW 21:19 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NY AM what is your end of the week forcast for the USD/JPY I know its guessing, but I would appciate your opionion.

London NYAM 21:14 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
probably. but that will also depend on how equities fare (or they should correlate). 107.15 is likely but you may just want to run a tight stop if itturns out we havent cottomed in negative sentiment.

US SW 21:10 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
do you think taking profits around 106.50 is beign greedy

PAR 21:09 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Nokia closing German plant after receiving € 88 million in sunsidies to open new plant in Romania with new european subsidies . Surrealistic europe .

US SW 21:07 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
thanks you sir

London NYAM 21:05 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
looks like a sell on a break of 48 to 30 (at least twenty spicy pips. then a pullback into the 50+territory is my guess.

US SW 20:55 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
is USD/JPY a sell here? any advice would be appriciated

US SW 20:41 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
shorting AUD/USD on 5 points uptick...working well so far...upp 75 points, scalping away...will stop around 8780

Amman wfakhoury 20:07 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 19:41 GMT January 16, 2008
Closed more 3/10 longs usd/jpy at 10759. 3 left for glory...

======
you are a brave man..first you bought at a time the usd.jpy
was going down ...second you kept your position all the time
ispite the volitile movement.

Mtl JP 20:01 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Syd - noted, tks. I am.

Syd 20:00 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 19:55 yes I know , thats why I said No.

Mtl JP 19:55 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Syd 19:42 / I was refering to NZ, not oz

Maribor 19:49 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 10:17 GMT January 16, 2008
Crude turning point may be positioned at 88,9.
-------------
Missed, low(so far) was 89,275.

Gen dk 19:48 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 19:42 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:30 GMT January 16, 2008
Subject:
Ok- Last big chunks allocated for EUR/JPY 157.47 and USD/JPY 106.15

USA Zeus 04:07 GMT January 16, 2008
Subject:
Bought another big chunk USD/JPY 106.32

USA Zeus 03:42 GMT January 16, 2008
Subject:
Bought

This guy must laugh his b... off.

Syd 19:42 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 19:21 no watching the Aud looks like the Stock rise can give it a kick higher today if we close on a good number, feel market watching for next weeks CPI for direction and could go a bit higher from here if the employment data on track.

The Netherlands Purk 19:41 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Closed more 3/10 longs usd/jpy at 10759. 3 left for glory...

KL FS 19:31 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
nice short squeezzzeeee :) stop to entry now on eurjpy long, bye for now

KL FS 19:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 19:27 GMT January 16, 2008

leave it for a while, will range a bit

Malaysia puteraku73 19:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 19:24 GMT January 16, 2008

What do you think about eur/gbp?

KL FS 19:24 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
came back to see all eurjpy orders filled, Dow is positive so all good,

Mtl JP 19:21 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Syd 19:19 / r u planning to trade the puppy's release, if Y -> how ?

Syd 19:19 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NZ's Inflation Outlook Worrisome - Westpac
NZ's 4Q CPI set to rise to 1.1%, pushing annual inflation above RBNZ's target band, with transport, food and housing major drivers, says Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan; expects non-tradeable inflation to be focus, tipping 0.9% gain in quarter, taking annual non-tradeable inflation to 3.9%. "Annual inflation through the top of the RBNZ's target band at the end of 2007 is one thing, but it is the outlook that has us most worried. We think annual inflation is headed for 4% through 2008," he says. Expects data will refocus attention on the "intense inflationary pressures" in NZ's economy

Dow Jones

PAR 19:10 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Volvo planning to switch part of production from Europe to USA .

Mtl JP 19:10 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
SW / helps how... to juice 30-50 pips ?

Slower growth higher energy and food prices.. duh. Fed 50 point cut a wet noodle, would probbaly have to cut a full point to get ahead of the curve. Qtn is does the FED want to get ahead of the curve.. does it care to get ahead.

Maribor 19:06 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EURUSD first target 1,472, if I guess right EURGBP finished correction(going down again), so her majesty should fly.

US SW 19:03 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
shorted the AUD/USD on news...hope this works

US SW 19:02 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Thanx MTL everything helps...

PAR 19:02 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Beige book . Firms face higher food, energy,metal costs .

Malaysia puteraku73 19:01 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Can we see eur/gbp at 7500 again?

Mtl JP 18:59 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
SW / Hard to quantify retail sales activity as “soft” and indications of regional labour markets especially in retro-view of Decembers pickup in unemployment rate. Expecting report of a slower growth environment (old news now) and continued upward price-inflation.

Do not know how I could quantify that for a 30-50pip reaction trade. you ?

US SW 18:58 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
before the book comes out, I just wanted to say that I really appriciate all of your guyis ideas and suggestion..Im new to currency..traded the nazdaq sinse 2001...thanks for your patients. I hope to learn from all of you. GL SW

Malaysia puteraku73 18:57 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
ECB Trichet Sticks To Jan 10 Rate Policy Message

US SW 18:52 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
if dovish shouldn't the Euro reverse?

PAR 18:49 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Trichet too lazy to change last weeks statement despite market turmoil .

Maribor 18:47 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
I think 1,99 is in the cards, abort(stop) if 1,9527 is seen.

Mtl JP 18:45 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Fed’s Beige Book to be come out at top hour.

expecting a generally dovish tone, in line and confirming general expectations of a 50 point FED cut.

Unlikely its release will present a trade-able opportunity.

The Netherlands Purk 18:41 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Well NYAM, what else would you expect of someone who looks for possibilities to live in Begium... LOL.
I read something in a post of yours, that you rather not short or long in the middle of the range. Good choice.
On the other hand, it looks like Asia does a bit of range thinging this week. I decided this morning that the range of usd/jpy on the short side was over at 10608-106 so i longed. But of course it was close to madness for some people.
Carry on please...

Makassar Alimin 18:40 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
dont like this pressure from jpy, out of gbpusd long at 1.9616 for 17 pips only

London NYAM 18:34 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
bilbao 17:49//whole sequence since October highs looks corrective and looks like a flat. Indicates a good chance we have seen the bottom for the next two weeks at least (or until we make a decent high. Gut doesnt like this making it tough for me to trade. But my gut is freuently wrong. Lots of reasons to try and catch another move higher.
GL Alimin.

KL FS 18:33 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
approaching last buy eurjpy for today 156.83 then stop all under today's low, getting late here now, see you all tomorrow

Maribor 18:32 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EURUSD 1,4714 done, now going up again.

US SW 18:28 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
short that is

US SW 18:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NEW here...its seem like USD/JPY is the theme...is it to late to get in?

PAR 18:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Imho Kampo, BOJ and Japanese housewives lost so much money on Us subprimes and on the Tokyo stock market that their credit lines are running dry . Maybe Countrywide still willing to give credit to Japanese housewives ?

HK Kevin 18:25 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 18:21 GMT, downside support at 105.80 (I think the pair will test today's low again tomorrow) , below that 105.20. Weekly chart targets 100.

Malaysia puteraku73 18:21 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 18:18 GMT January 16, 2008

So 105 is posible?

HK Kevin 18:18 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 17:52 GMT January 16, 2008
Open position at 107.35.. Hope you'r right..
It USD/JPY closed blow 107.10 today, we may not see 107.50 again for the rest of this week.

US SW 18:17 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
AUD/SUD >86 by week end..EUR/USD strong support here..and who the censored new he would be speaking...if you a physic tell me now..lol....

The Netherlands Purk 18:09 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US SW 15:12 GMT January 16, 2008

I guess you think before you speak again. London sometimes bites when he and his friends are having fun.

London: got your message lou and clear. But you yourself said it once. This current market is not a market where one an leave a position for many moons. This market is now the up and own market of Paris Hilton.

US SW 18:08 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD very tired....here

Makassar Alimin 18:04 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM, it is very tempting, I think i'll take it, long gbpusd 1.9599, risking 40 pips, will leave it overnight

isr jweb 18:01 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
anyone any idea on aud/usd, where it is heading?

KL FS 18:00 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 17:52 GMT January 16, 2008

watch eurjpy in tandem too, anything under 157 is good entry today, so you have plenty of time to jump in, risking today's low

next 24 hr i am expecting to see 158.50 taken, and friday should bring 159 if not higher

The Netherlands Purk 17:54 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Thought i saw something of 14740 in e/u just now but it is in fact 14640ish. Hmm i closed all of my shorts e/u meaning the 14740 ones...
Strange day...

Malaysia puteraku73 17:52 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 17:49 GMT January 16, 2008

Open position at 107.35.. Hope you'r right..

The Netherlands Purk 17:51 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Closed 4/10 possies usd/jpy at 10739.
The buying my b. of was/is rewarding

KL FS 17:49 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
PAR 17:47 GMT January 16, 2008

BOJ and Kampo will save it just like they have done all the time

bilbao 17:49 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM,do u see a rally on equities from here?

PAR 17:47 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
All time low on EURJPY is 88 . So at 158.00 , eurjpy not really undervalued .Be carefull, see Europe imploding .

KL FS 17:41 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 17:32 GMT January 16, 2008

no, cannot see anymore disaster that can make jpy strengthen from here, it is payback time for the rest of this week starting today as far as I can see, eurjpy to 159 and usdjpy 109-110

HK Kevin 17:38 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 17:32 GMT, USD/JPY is now testing 107.50 resistance which was broken yesterday, a break of which could test 108 tomorrow. Still a sell with stop at 108.40

Malaysia puteraku73 17:32 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Can usd/jpy go down till 105.00?

US SW 17:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EURO/JPY 159.50 TOP.....153.20 BOTTOM

PAR 17:24 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Do not understand why Kampo and BOJ waited till NY trading hours to intervene ? Maybe drunk too much sake at the coming of age holiday .

KL FS 17:19 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
agree with you Alimin, happy to buy eurjpy here 157.27 and another one near 156.80 for a trip to 159, should see it by Friday
stop all under today's low

madrid mm 17:05 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Yves Mersch for President ......of whatever institution
8-)

Makassar Alimin 17:00 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
if lucky eurjpy's low today could be the low for the rest of this week

London NYAM 17:00 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
No. Sorry Alimin. Frankly worn out I traded my buns off today to get all my money back from yesterdays losses. Took on some high risk and counting my luck stars. Only thing i see there that grabs me is USDCHF which i wouldnt mind picking up if/when it corrects some.

PAR 16:53 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Euro is more overvalued than the whole US real estate market . Do not forget in the euro are Italian lira s, Spanish peseta s ( even French francs ) etc , all notoriously unhealty currencies

Makassar Alimin 16:52 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 16:46 GMT January 16, 2008

thinking the same too, looks like a lot of hestation going higher, will need a good trigger for that, can't think of any at the moment

on jpy front, are you thinking of playing contra intraday for eurjpy?

Mumbai NS 16:51 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
The show must go on but a took a bit off the table here gud nite gud trades glgt

London NYAM 16:46 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
I suppose the lowest risk plan would be short here with stop and reverse above the last high 1.0282.

London NYAM 16:45 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 16:36//Its a bit too mucj in the middle of the range for me. Still bullish over 1.0124 if it breaks that last high it could steam ahead avove 1.03. Bodes quite well for the dollar which is one reason i am trepedatious about putting my foor back into these markets. Equities still pose a risk id like to see them help to give direction.

madrid mm 16:44 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
what happened ?

I am confused ... 8-)

By the way , people , ie banks, fund mangers etc need any excuses to move the market ..
But hat off to Monsieur Mersch..8-) We should have more people like him everyday with statements like his to make this market exciting..day in, day out !!!

US SW 16:38 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
any ideas on the EURO/SWISS FRANK

Makassar Alimin 16:36 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM, anything interesting you see for usdcad? 1000 ema 4hrly cap for the time being, down if not overcome?

Makassar Alimin 16:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
euro 1.45-1.4650 is still a buy zone i think, only weekly close under will change the bias

philadelphia caba 16:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
eur/gbp: 7500 (if seen).. good level to re-short with tight stop..

KL FS 16:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
bought euro 1.4645, betting euro will close above 1.4650 today, could see 1.4720 again, stop should be today's low

US SW 16:24 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EURO.USD....OOCCH..stoped out..guess London was onto something shorterm..o well made it back scalping....still long under 1.42

London NYAM 16:22 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
taking g/j out at 210.10. cant be greedy after a good day. Just watch now (if i can control myself).

London NYAM 16:22 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
taking g/j out at 210.10. cant be greedy after a good day. Just watch now (if i can control myself).

tokyo ginko 16:18 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
looking to see eur/usd hit support 14480/14500 lvls GT all

HK Kevin 16:11 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
2nd half short EUR position closed at 1.4652. 20 and 50 ma of the daily chart may provide some support.

Makassar Alimin 16:07 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
too easy drop this euro, market is caught long, stops triggered in domino effect style

London NYAM 16:06 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
stopped out already at 1.9619 GBPUSD.

lkwd jj 16:05 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
gvi jay
100 ma on 4hr euro looks like hot knife thru butter

Mtl JP 16:02 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
my 15:50 is compliments GVI

London NYAM 15:59 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Alimin just bought back in 1/3 pos GBPUSD here at 44 and GBPJPY at 72. Could hold out here S&P needs to cool it with the dumping.

HK Kevin 15:59 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 15:54 GMT, Cable is a sell at 1.9720 with large stop.

saopaulo cg 15:58 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
thank you JP, didn' t understood what happened !!!!

houston st 15:56 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   

mkt didn't like stats, and w/ breach of $90 crude my next potential tgt is $88.95, fwiw...gl/gt.

HK Kevin 15:55 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Closed half short EUR short from 1.4904 yesterday at 1.4688.

Makassar Alimin 15:54 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM, gbpusd is holding here?

chicago ls 15:53 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Thanks much mtl

Mtl JP 15:50 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
from GVI

GVI Jay 15:44 GMT January 16, 2008
Euro just took a hit fafter ECB's Mersch comments that growth forecasts may have to be lowered


in case u r wondering about the catalyst

chicago ls 15:49 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
ecb on the line?

USA Skeptic 15:36 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
you hit the ignorance (ignorant) part on the head for certain.

US SW 15:23 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Sorry...(ignorance is Bliss) lol :)

JAK BOND 15:20 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US SW 15:12

I guess you got the wrong person here I dont think it was NYAM who are mocking you guess it is LONDON : )

US SW 15:12 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM...I don't know who you calling son..,but listen upp bud. The Fed is going to push more liquidty in the system wich in turn will weaken the dollar further. If the Fed Cuts .50 you short POS will be stoped out. we may see 160.00 before years end.

philadelphia caba 15:05 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
eur/gbp..would sell higher with s/l above today's high or try to sell break 7510..imo.

Mumbai NS 14:56 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM / no mate the show must go on gud trades glgt

PAR 14:56 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/01/16/afx4537583.html

London NYAM 14:55 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Taking a break guys. GLGT to y'all.

London NYAM 14:49 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73//Stop between .7543 and.7548 and maybe sell at 34, but Caba may have a better guess. Im not in this trade btw.

Gen dk 14:44 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai NS 14:43 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Gud lvls to start to build a stg short book gud trades gl gt

Malaysia puteraku73 14:40 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM,

Right now where should i place my order at eur/gbp? (sell/buy)
Any ideas...

London NJD 14:38 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
eur/usd break of 1.4815 seems imminent

London 14:35 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US SW 14:31 GMT January 16, 2008
son...put your pudding back in your pants and go home before it gets [email protected]

US SW 14:31 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EURO.USD is moving strong....will not stop till passes 149.00 proof is in my pudding....take a bite

London NYAM 14:16 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Bob//Thanks. Too early but that was about as impulsive as one gets. More to come after a retrace...

St. Annaland Bob 14:14 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
yeap ... someone saw the GBP/JPY was ¥45 down from ¥251 ... gravity waits @ 215 maybe sooner then the whole year ... well done Nyam

YVR MAXXIM 14:12 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
fwiw momentum formula
mathbf{p}= sum_{i = 1}^n m_i mathbf{v}_i = m_1 mathbf{v}_1 + m_2 mathbf{v}_2 + m_3 mathbf{v}_3 + cdots + m_n mathbf{v}_n

philadelphia caba 14:09 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
eur/gbp: talk about 7500 option strike at 10am NY cut..

slv sam 14:07 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 13:58 GMT /
looks like it!
already eurgbp moving your way!GT

London NYAM 14:05 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
sold gbpusd t/p from 1.9565 here at 1.9677

London NYAM 14:03 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
sold second gbpjpy half 209.64 from 207.56 today.

Maribor 13:58 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
slv sam 13:32 GMT January 16, 2008

If EURUSD goes down and GBPUSD up, than EURGBP moves down double. I (would) love that.

US SW 13:57 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
ANY CLUES were the EUR.CHF may be headed? humbly asking?

London NYAM 13:39 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Canada NN//why right it down, there's an archive.

Mtl JP 13:39 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US SW 13:34 / proof is in the pudding: cpi number not the greatest market mover (not even 30 pips in eur/dlr for example). Focus is on (no)growth...

saopaulo cg 13:37 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
euro is tired, doesn't have any power. It reminds me on what happened to the pound two weeks ago. Sell the euro on rallies.

Canada NN 13:35 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
slv sam 13:32 GMT January 16, 2008
I will note down what you said. See GBP is really back to 2 within 4 days.

US SW 13:34 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US CPI Postive for the EURO...Expect the dollar to keep falling

London NYAM 13:32 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Economic Data (US, DEC) *Consumer Price Index MoM/YoY out at 0.3%/4.1% vs 0.2%/4.1% exp. Prior 0.8%/4.3% *CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM/YoY out at 0.2%/2.4% vs 0.2%/2.4% exp. Prior 0.3%/2.3%

slv sam 13:32 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
gbpusd target 2.00 will be reached within 4 trading days imo but is it possible for gbp to gain 400 points and same time eurousd looses 100-200points? more possibility is for euro to start up from here!GT

Hong Kong SAR 13:29 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
VAN GECKO>are you bearish on gold? gt&gl

London NYAM 13:28 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
CPI out in 3 mins. EURUSD looks like its starting its final leg figs could set off the breaks either way.

philadelphia caba 13:22 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
eur/gbp: some supports 7510-25..7350-7400 is reachable ..

HK Kevin 13:18 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 13:16 GMT, EUR/GBP is forming a H&S in the ourly chart with neckline at 0.7522, a break will target 0.7410.

Malaysia puteraku73 13:16 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EUR is coming under pressure on the crosses with EUR/JPY making a fresh 4 month low of 156.51 and EUR/CHF a 10 month low at 1.6085. EUR/GBP is lagging the moves, however, a UK bank trader says it should only be a matter of time before that cross catches up.

London NYAM 13:10 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
closed my usdjpy longs on that up move. Dont trust the yen just yet. Closed hald GBPUSD as well.

London NYAM 13:02 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
that was for a half. there should be more to come. stop raised to entry.

London NYAM 13:01 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Ill t/p for 100 pips here at 208.56 from earlier today.

munich st 12:58 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Hi bc, if you are around, would you care sharing with us your view for eurusd for 2008? TIA

YVR MAXXIM 12:52 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
fwiw Numerology blow you away when you read the statement!

US SW 12:51 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
I expect the EUR/USD to Shoot upp on the CPI Data....resistance 1.4970

YVR MAXXIM 12:47 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Hasselt Red 12:39 GMT January 16, 2008
Ask jay email adrs. i can you send the details, you can decide if it's done right.

Hasselt Red 12:39 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
maxxim, you still trading in BC? am curious about the system you used

US SW 12:29 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EUR/CHF can't find is footing here 1.6123...Looking to go Long Lower...

US SW 12:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EUR/JPY may find some short term strengh here 156.90 will see >155 IMO

van Gecko 12:19 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   

"07:08 GMT November 19, 2007
Near-term Carry Trades heading towards last week's lows..
Short-term Carry Trades heading towards their August lows..
Mid-term Dollar Index heading towards 88.."


HK Kevin 10:03.. you may be right..
only scaling in small possies here risking a portion of the pips from way up there..;)

London NYAM 12:19 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Bob//I don't hedge but respect those who do it right. GBPJPY has always been my favourite and I have always had my best trades and return from this pair. GL to you.

St. Annaland Bob 12:13 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM// last regarding GBP/JPY, hourly (1hr-8hr) charts showing more than 10% range currently ... very promising situation if money management done well

St. Annaland Bob 12:11 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM// additionally, I use forwards to long and spot to hedge ... every pip counts ;-) ... I think that with each trading tools that represents more than 200 pips as 1% it's crucial to use hedging and not stops ... but, that's only me ;-)

YVR MAXXIM 12:07 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
USA Don 12:02 GMT January 16, 2008
fwiw 95% success rate secret never use stops payscience
geduLd insightfull

St. Annaland Bob 12:06 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 11:54 GMT January 16, 2008

many thanks for the details ... personally, during the current given market with GBP/JPY I use monthly/weekly for entry points and the other charts for money management of the position/trade while running... good trades to you!

USA Don 12:06 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 12:04 GMT January 16, 2008
too bad, same as me. I am not dare enough to long GBP again. Because down is more easier than up.

London NYAM 12:04 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
stopped at 1.9589 re-entered small long at 1.9568 with stop for that 1.947x

USA Don 12:02 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 11:54 GMT January 16, 2008
How was you GBP at 1.9679 long yesterday morning? My one was stop at 1.96

London NYAM 11:54 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Bob//Every scale from Monthly to 1 min. My decision to enter has to agree at levels from 1 hr to 1min chart but ideally it will also meet up with an important daily fib cluster. The tight stop is because of the fib support/extension levels that when broken ususally mean you have to go much lower. Also, I get the feeling (and i could of course be totally wrong) that the mood out there is past fear and into silent capitulation. Thats a pretty good sign we are nearing a bottom (perhaps not THE bottom of course but decent support and seller exhaustion). Smaller drops on the hourly chart for each wave also seems shows the momentum drop.

St. Annaland Bob 11:46 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 11:42 GMT January 16, 2008

which time scale/period charts you use to trade GBP/JPY currently? ... amazing you dare to place stops so close with GBP/JPY ... thanks in advance

London NYAM 11:42 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Trying a long gbpjpy 217.56 stop 206.4x one add at 206.85. Lets see if fibs kick in.

London NYAM 11:15 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
July 19th 251.1000
Aug 16th 219.2300
Oct 30th 241.3300

1.382 regular extension: 207.06
2.618 plummer extension: 206.74

London NYAM 11:10 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
maribor//Yes something is simmering in the pan...

Maribor 11:08 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Well, 1,9557 was also turning point and somebody big used it...may go up now.

madrid mm 11:06 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- China ordered banks to set aside larger reserves and imposed price curbs on grain, meat and eggs to try to prevent inflation at an 11-year high from triggering civil unrest.

Lenders must park 15 percent of deposits with the central bank from Jan. 25, the People's Bank of China said today on its Web site, up from 14.5 percent. The ratio is the highest in at least 20 years.

Maribor 10:52 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
If somebody wants to play long, USDCHF may be wise choice as it is positioned at nice turning point...

madrid mm 10:45 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Polokwane CS , believe you me.

After taking a few losses and screaming at my pc screen, ie learning the hard, i thought, i better relax because the market is going to do what the market is going to do

8-)

St. Annaland Bob 10:45 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
good morning ... kind of gravity rule applies to GBP/GPY @ 215 ... it will go there still during 2008 ... fwiw

Maribor 10:42 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 21:50 GMT January 15, 2008
Subject:
Short term targets may be 1,9568 and 1,4714(in a day); USDJPY dive may stop at 101,2(approx. one week).
----------------
Cable target already done and after brief pop up new target 1,95. USDJPY nicely on the way.

Polokwane CS 10:40 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm 10:27 GMT January 16, 2008
Let s see. Psychological lvls FWIW

-55 madrid mm heart bit /minute


It seems you are quite fit and relaxed!

GL.GT.

HK Kevin 10:36 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
My God, short AUD 0.8770 limit order triggered earlier.

PAR 10:36 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
ECB Weber , tensions remain in Germans financial markets .

Syd 10:35 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
ECB Weber: German Fincl System Has Weathered Mkt Turbulence DJ>

madrid mm 10:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Let s see. Psychological lvls FWIW
-1.4800 euro/usd
-106 usd/yen
-1.09 usd/chf
-880 xau
-55 madrid mm heart bit /minute
-1.96/1.95 gbp, too fast this one
8-)

Aust German 10:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Stop loss @ 1.9560, shxt

Auckland JJ 10:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 10:21 GMT January 16, 2008
JJ, my guess is 0,75250.

Thanks well give it a crack, good profit trades to you.

Maribor 10:21 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
JJ, my guess is 0,75250.

Maribor 10:17 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Crude turning point may be positioned at 88,9.

Auckland JJ 10:11 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Hi anyone have next support level for the NZ/US?

HK Kevin 10:03 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
van Gecko 08:30 GMT, it may be just the beginning o a multi-month downtrend for EUR/JPY. See no reason to buy it for mid term. Of course, day trading is another story.

Gen dk 10:00 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 09:48 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
nt, looking at loonie, do u think aud and nzd will follow its path?

madrid mm 09:46 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
i am soooooooooooo confused

8-)

It is all over the shop

It is PIPPING TIME AGAIN !!!

PAR 09:46 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
An idea for Trichet .

http://www.thomsonfxhub.com/fxhub/news-detail.jsf?newsId=9460

London NYAM 09:40 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 07:34//yeap. gbp acting very brick-like. its been run by the cross and seems to be acting like a poor abused husband/wife to the partner that wears the pants. 2.08 broke last night and the wave seems to extend forever. Still like both long. of course it will depend on NY again and Ben('s) Ten.

London Geronimo140 09:37 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Australis German 09:34 GMT January 16, 2008
At this point I would say patience pays.Slowly but surely .My stop is at 1.9570 but I would retry at 1.9550

Australis German 09:34 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London NJD 09:29 GMT January 16, 2008
Any view? Up or down? No change after the data.

London NJD 09:29 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Australis German 09:24 GMT January 16, 2008
I agree with that. Despite its appearant troubles, GBP/USD should raise after the datas. 1.9655 then 1.97

Australis German 09:24 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
long GBP 1.9595, s/l 1.9550 target 1.9750

EU theEUROqueen 09:19 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
hong kong nt 07:17 GMT January 16, 2008 ..

maybe the 1,68** but its too early now...

happy trade

PAR 08:39 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Nokia to shift German jobs to Romania.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h16QzZGGNk8xodzN2nQWE9VgrqRw

tokyo ginko 08:31 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
PAR 08:06 GMT January 16, 2008 sheessssssss........ lol...

van Gecko 08:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
memphis trending.. levels from here down to 1.54 presents good risk scale in opportunties for positional trendkies.. depending on your risk profile, scale in small & add up with the bias.. weeklies below 1.54 may have further down side momentum to the 1.40's.. gl

madrid mm 08:21 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
PAR , i wish I could meet her to tell you this !!
8-)

They say timing is everything.
What a wonderful coincidence

Mad money!

8-)

Syd 08:20 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Sydney ACC 07:59 Hi, there, talk today we should see at least 92 on the Aud I suppose it all comes down to the equities and Fed , was looking for at least 89 before the RBA meeting and the CPI numbers next week Richard Grace was playing with those numbers also

Maribor 08:18 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EURCHF turn level ~1,594.

Maribor 08:15 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
GBPCHF errata - 2,1250...

Maribor 08:13 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
GBPCHF nicely obeying - 2,1450 done...first point up 2,1355, than further...EURUSD 1,4714 still waiting.

PAR 08:06 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Imho EURO most overvalued currency. EURUSD actual 1.4830 vs low of .8250. EURJPY act 157.60 vs low of 88. EURGBP actual 7570 vs low 5950. etc. So selling Euro long term may be the trade of 2008 as postion trading is the only way to make big money .

Madrid/ Gisele is smart and knows the power of compound interest, so no way she will accept to be paid in yen.

memphis trending 08:01 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
van Gecko,

Based on your analysis, where to put stoploss for the long Eur/JPY plz?
Thanks again.

Sydney ACC 07:59 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Syd 07:27 GMT January 16, 2008
After the carange overnight and this morning its shaping up as a dead cat bounce.
Better to stay out in my opinion markets just too volatile.
i was looking at GBP/JPY last night. London opened at 210.50 went up to 212.00 on the back of UK inflation data then lost all its gains at US retail sales data release. Early this morning went to 208.00 where it is now thereabouts.

memphis trending 07:54 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
van Gecko:

Thank you, sir.

van Gecko 07:50 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
memphis trending..
I wouldn't rule out a near term side to up bias back towards the 1.65's.. Eur/Jpy & cousins down here at their rising 7 year TL's should still attract some real money trendkies..gl

memphis trending 07:36 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
van Gecko:

If eur/jpy rebound, whats your target plz?

thank you

Makassar Alimin 07:34 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM, chance of going long gbpusd again 1.9588 with stop under today's low so far, let's see where this takes us today

NY Rob 07:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
nice bounce, euro is now holding above 1.4820, go long here 1.4830 stop under yesterday's low for target 1.50 and above

van Gecko 07:28 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Euro holding 1.48 despite the carnage inflicted on Eur/Jpy longkies.. Europhiles may get lucky with another go at 1.50 from here with a good near term bounce by the Japanese crosses from their weekly & monthly ma's..
Have'pip New Year



Syd 07:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Talk Germans have been huge buyers of Aud from lows in Asia. GBP clearer and Asian sovereign names also buying

hong kong nt 07:17 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EUROqueen -- perhaps, we may see euro 1.40-1.60 in 2008. seems orderly decline of USD is the primary theme.

The Netherlands Purk 07:03 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Buying usd/jpy all day long from now on....
Time to see some money floating...

madrid mm 06:42 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
thx Amman
8-)

We are expecting some Germany CPI in +/-18 minutes

Amman wfakhoury 06:41 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm..you are smart and nice man.

Amman wfakhoury 06:35 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
I am so busy today..no spicy pips..no signals.

madrid mm 06:34 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
have a gr8 day

8-)

Amman wfakhoury 06:34 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 17:42 GMT January 13, 2008
Subject:
isr jweb 15:34 GMT January 13, 2008
======
usd.chf heading twd 10990-10750

====it is now 10850
which bigger 20 spicy pips in 1 hour or 162 pips in 3 days.

madrid mm 06:31 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
* Rumours of emergency Fed meeting circulated during Asian hours.

* A Federal Reserve spokeswoman, speaking to Reuters, declines to comment on the rumours.

* MoF Fukushiro Nukaga says abrupt FX moves are undesirable. Need to monitor FX closely. Global economy still solid.

* PM Yasuo Fukuda: watching stock prices and act if necessary. Japan stock price fall does not indicate economic trend - BBG.

* WSJ: A top House Democrat Barney Frank said Congress and the White House can come to an agreement on an economic-stimulus package -- provided Republicans don't insist the plan includes making President Bush's signature tax cuts permanent. Sees a stimulus plan costing more than $100b

* Times: "Big three" Tokyo megabanks Mitsubishi UFJ (MUFJ), Mitsui Sumitomo Financial Group (SMFG) and Mizuho Financial had readied a combined cashpile of as much as $10b (GBP5b) and were open to negotiation with any struggling Wall Street bank that approached them for a cash infusion.

* "Low Yielding" JPY and CHF continue to stretch their winning streaks, against the Greenback, which is fast "losing Yield and appeal." USD/JPY broke through key 106.50/ 106 to fresh 2-year 9 month lows of 105.98. while USD/CHF hit all time lows 1.0839.

* A Very choppy and busy day as Greenback sold broadly against EUR, AUD, JPY, CHF, GBP, with talks large Asian, China accounts, hedge funds US, Germans, UK clearers amongst the huge USD sellers. Day started with rumours of emergency Fed meeting during early Asian morning, and possible inter meeting Fed 50bps cut before the Jan 29-30 meet, triggering some short-covering in Cross/JPY.

USD/JPY hit lows of 106.59 initially before rebounding up, before diving through 106.50 triggers as JPY, CHF rally on risk aversion, with stock markets extending losses, on fears of more US writedowns, US economy, stocks.

Large US investment houses, funds, EUropeans, were amongst the huge USD/JPY sellers, with focus now on 105.50/ 105 options and talks of huge >$1bln 100 option, 3-month. USD/JPY at low since May 12 2005 low 105.67.

EUR/JPY broke through 157.50/40 options to 4-m lows 157.28, low since Sept 11 2007 156.26, down >1 Yen from its early highs of 158.45-50. GBP/JPY broke key 208 handle to fresh 1 year 8 mth lows sionce May 16 2006 206.39.

AUD, NZD, GBP rallied on good Asian demand, talks of Sovereign, China buying as UK clearers, big Germans bought large.

Focus on JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, CPI today.

Nikkei closes -3.35% or -468.12pts at 26-m lows 13,504.51. JGBs firmer on stocks losses, 10-yr yield -0.040% at 1.380%.

Crude a tad soft at $91.64.

Gold below $900 in choppy trade, at $891.00/75.

madrid mm 06:26 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Gisele will soon be asking to be paid in YEN or YUAN
8-)

madrid mm 06:25 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
This is getting interesting....Valatility is well and truly alive

Geneva 06:22 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Stupid Trichet will save the world and cut rate!

madrid mm 06:12 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
hello and GM FCX Jedi

well we ll well well.....
What a way to start the EUropean session

8-)

USA BAY 06:08 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Out of eur/gbp short , 11 pips loss, gbp going down fast

Va Raven 05:46 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
You don't have to publish a real trade on forum, exchanging/sharing thoughts or ideas should be most welcomed and encouraged...
But if you do publish a trade, real or not, you should also state where you set your stop and target for the trade.

Without stop/target, it's simply not a trade!

Wellington, N.Z. 04:59 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   

*** Today’s Feautured Trades: AUD/USD & NZD/USD ***


Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for WEDNESDAY - JANUARY 16th:

To Request a Trial of Max’s FX Service:

Click here

memphis trending 04:34 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:30 GMT January 16, 2008
Ok- Last big chunks allocated for EUR/JPY 157.47 and USD/JPY 106.15


Zeus, do you expect both pairs rebound or reverse plz?

Thank you

new albany mb 04:33 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
usd/jpy-next major support at 105.20 area

USA Zeus 04:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Ok- Last big chunks allocated for EUR/JPY 157.47 and USD/JPY 106.15

Syd 04:07 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD keeps rising on fears for direction of U.S. financial system, growing speculation of further Fed rate cuts, says trader at Tokyo bank; "players are not in a condition where they can buy the dollar instead of the euro." If U.S. stocks fall further later, pair will likely extend gains, may hit another record high. Tips 1.4820-1.4900 range for now
Djones

USA Zeus 04:07 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Bought another big chunk USD/JPY 106.32

USA Zeus 03:42 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Bought a big chunk of USD/JPY @ 106.42

Syd 03:37 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
All eyes now on Australian Bureau of Statistics' December employment data tomorrow. Consensus forecast is unemployment rate of 4.4%; employment growth of 20,000; participation rate 65.3%.

Malaysia puteraku73 03:24 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
I think eur/gbp will go down till 7100-7200..

Let me know your thoughts

Syd 03:19 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Inflation jolt adds to rates pressure
January 16, 2008
The Age
New evidence of an inflation surge is adding to the pressure for another rise in official interest rates, as the Federal Opposition accuses Treasurer Wayne Swan of letting the banks treat him like a "mug" over this month's rises.

Figures published on Monday suggest inflation jumped sharply at the end of 2007, pushing the annual rate well above the Reserve Bank's target range of between 2% and 3%.

If confirmed in the December quarter inflation figures later this month, the Reserve Bank board will be under more pressure to lift official interest rates when it meets on February 5.

Surging inflation would also reinforce the complex economic outlook for the Rudd Government as it puts together its first budget, to be delivered in May.

The latest bad news came in the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge, which rose by 0.6 of a percentage point last month, taking it to 3.7% for the year to December.

Joshua Williamson, senior strategist at TD Securities, said the Reserve Bank would be "particularly uneasy" with both headline and underlying inflation above 3%.

Soaring prices for petrol, rental accommodation and overseas holiday travel were big contributors to the increase.

Countering pressure for higher rates is concern that the United States will go into recession. But Mr Williamson doubted that this would be sufficient to head off a rate rise.

Mr Swan warned that inflation was likely to remain up for 18 months, and blamed the former government. "The departing gift of the Liberals to the incoming Rudd Government was an elevated level of inflation," he said.

Shadow treasurer Malcolm Turnbull said Mr Swan could have prevented or limited this month's rate rises, which were independent of any official rise by the Reserve Bank. Instead the banks had treated the Treasurer like a mug, he said.

austin mw 02:49 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
dc, thanks for info... any rally should be short lived... nikkei cut early losses by 1/2. s&p's up off lows

USA Don 02:35 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US SW 02:28 GMT January 16, 2008
Totally agree, Bush just concern core inflation, ie cheating himself there is no inflation. Cut rate is a must.

US SW 02:28 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
The US stock market is officialy in a Bear Market. The Credit crisis has put the FED in a difficult spot. The Fed may be forced to lower intrest rates by .50 points even though inflation is a concern. The Market may rally if this happens, though it should be brief and short lived. I expect the QQQQ to retest its old support @ $38.00 Its seems all of the quality investors are on the sidelines or in CASH! GL off to work..SW

Gen dk 02:26 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Canada NN 02:22 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
philadelphia caba 02:10 GMT January 16, 2008
Good Luck, hope your s/l cannot execute

Syd 02:18 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: USD/JPY's Rise Earlier Due To Fed Rumor-Dealers
Earlier EUR/JPY, USD/JPY rise partly due to investors' buying on vague market rumor that Federal Reserve may hold unscheduled meeting with at least 6 senior traders in Japan confirming such talk making the rounds though they're not sure about source, credibility. Rumor prompts some players to speculate Fed may cut its rates before next scheduled meeting on Jan. 29-30
dow jones

US SW 02:18 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EUR/CHF may be a LONG here. It may flirt with 161.00 to take out stops, but I don't thinks its going to happen.

USA BAY 02:17 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
USA DON,

Thanks, but day dreaming with proper stop loss if fine.

Syd 02:16 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Asia INDICES now recovering from considerable losses at the open
NIkkei at one point down approx 350

N225 Nikkei 225 13,792.62 8:55PM ET 180.01 (1.29%)

Syd 02:12 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
High-tax Britain booted from club of 'free' economies
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=K1CFRXR
QR0OAFQFIQMFSFFWAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/money/2008/01/15/bcnhightax11.xml

philadelphia caba 02:10 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Canada NN 02:06
just because your 3 posts..
anyway..eur/gbp is sell (4 me)till new high is taken out..s/l above 7620..of course can be..& I'll be (for sure) wrong...gt/gl!

US SW 02:10 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
The CABLE has been stretched and pounded, when it does show strength, LOOK OUT! It will be fast and furious. Using TS's

USA Don 02:08 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 01:57 GMT January 16, 2008
you think eur/gbp can reach 7515? Day dream is ok. My target is 0.8 See how bad of UK RICS is. The worst since 1992. Short GBP for each rise.

Canada NN 02:06 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
philadelphia caba 01:53 GMT January 16, 2008
Drunk? No, just want to remind those GBP lovers, long GBP is easy to die, just like me.

US SW 02:05 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
for futur reference, most of my post are identified with the 4 hour chart with a weekly FIB.

philadelphia caba 02:03 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
US SW 02:01 GMT
hm, yesterday's high is old high?..

US SW 02:01 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EUR/GBP Head fake, back to old highs. .7622 resistance

Malaysia puteraku73 02:00 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
I have one open eur/gbp sell at 7610... need to know where should i sell...

USA BAY 01:57 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73,

eur/gbp if 7515 breaks, then 7425/20 can be expected. Maybe Nyam or Caba who are more familiar with this pair can comment.

Syd 01:57 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Australia's housing sector remains in solid shape, despite recent central bank tightening and a gloomy global economic outlook, with mortgage lending continuing to rise late last year. Housing finance data released Wednesday show a stronger-than-expected rise in overall lending in November from October although borrowing for investment purposes fell slightly. While the data point the way for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates a quarter of a percentage point to 7.0% in February, the decision still largely hinges on Australian inflation data due Jan. 23.
dowjones

dc CB 01:55 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
dc CB 01:52 GMT January 16, 2008
austin mw 1:24

Note this line is mine not UK Alex.....sorry no to be clearer in post.

"IMO hold off, and if a gambler buy OEX calls thurs betting on a Repeat of the August Playbook

LA Roscoe 01:54 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Stockholm za, don't be such a drama queen. Anyone with half a brain knows that Jon dude from Vegas is one seriously whacked mofo. Your market oriented comments are always appreciated.

philadelphia caba 01:53 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
sorry..
Canada NN, 01:51
r u drunk?

Canada NN 01:53 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM, how was your GBP long @ 1.9679& 1.9622. My one was s/l @ 1.96. Loss 100pips. Did you s/l? How about the other GBP lovers? All dead?

philadelphia caba 01:52 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
r u drunk?

dc CB 01:52 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
austin mw 1:24

from Futures Forum

UK Alex 01:15 GMT January 16, 2008
A theory is being floated:

It is important to realize that this is option expiration week. Our sources seem to feel as though traders caught with short put positions are now selling futures to hedge or cover their option holdings, thus adding fuel to the fire. If this is true, as the market drops more and more put sellers will be forced to take action. Additionally, it is highly possible that several sell stops still remain under this market...I think that a bottom is forming, but news lows look to be necessary.


IMO hold off, and if a gambler buy OEX calls thurs betting on a Repeat of the August Playbook

Canada NN, 01:51 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM

Canada NN, 01:51 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM

USA BAY 01:47 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Seems like gbp/jpy has 206.50 as a good medium support for now if 210 fails again. Will try a long there if 206.50 seen.

Malaysia puteraku73 01:46 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Anyone knows where eur/gbp heading next? right now eur/gbp still holding at 7550-7560

MVC-IA-USA JC 01:42 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Sold EUR at 1.4780 will add more if it rises, also U/Y long here will add more if falls lower target...the end of the rainbow!

USA BAY 01:33 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Nyam, just a technical question, looking at the nzd/jpy charts, wave B seemed to have completed at 86.16 and wave seems to have started and I have it ending probably around 70/71, just wondering your thoughts on "not to be short on this term for long", could you elaborate if you have the time, still working on my ew analysis, still learning on EW analysis. Thanks a lot.

In on short eur/gbp at 7558.

London NYAM 01:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
austin mw 01:22 // the advantage of the limited on time is the flexibility of the off time. nuff said im off to bed time

Sao Paulo Mike 01:25 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
any comments on NOKSEK???

austin mw 01:24 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
tempted to buy s&p's on globex but w/o FED stepping in, my
hunch is they trade lower.

austin mw 01:22 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
NYAM, 10 a.m -3 p.m and don't forget the 2 hour lunch..

USA Skeptic 01:21 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
za, I for one shall miss you amidst the boisterous horde of bullspitters and ego-boosters.

The days of old you refer to were indeed the golden years of the GVI's Forex Forum.

London NYAM 01:19 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
I guess one has to have been an academic to know what kind of hours they pull. Ben-Ten.

dc CB 01:15 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Last time stox were this low, Aug, the PPT Team(Ben and Trader in Chief Hank) pulled a major shorts killer move, announcing a discount rate cut before the Friday opening, killing all the SnP puts that settle on the Friday cash opening.

Currently as of the close today the Vix, which in Aug hit 37, is still in the low 20s ...closed 23.30ish

Beige Book tomorrow.

Ben appears testifies on Econ Outlook Thurs 10 AM est.

austin mw 01:15 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
These rumors have been floating since Ben's speech. The
problem is that it would be unusual for FED to cut so close
to official meeting. IMHO the window has closed but then again..

Syd 01:13 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus a pleasure :-))

USA Zeus 01:06 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Syd- Thx a lot for that info and as always for your many informative contributions.



Syd 01:03 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus , may get a rally into the open as before hear reuter have put out a statement also , this time there may be something in it :-)))

MARKET TALK: Aussie Housing Finance Signals RBA Hike - WBC

Australian housing finance remains resilient in face of recent RBA rate hikes, signaling central bank will have to hike again in February, says Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan. Notes headline 4.0% growth in November housing loans pushed by rebound in refinancing via non-bank lending, shrugging off global credit woes; "at the moment, the rate rises themselves don't seem to have had any significant impact in slowing domestic demand." RBA meets February 5, official cash rate now 6.75%. Dow Jones

USA Zeus 01:01 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Syd 00:53 GMT January 16, 2008

Syd- Been hearing the same. Also rumors that if not and things remain it could be a possibility on triple crazy Friday.

Syd 00:54 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Aussie House Data Shows Consumers In Good Shape
[Dow Jones] Australian November housing finance data suggest there is little evidence housing demand is declining even after 10 rate hikes since May 2002, says Brian Redican, senior economist at Macquarie Bank; says RBA likely to note stubborn resilience of demand. Data consistent with view that Australian household budgets are in good shape, likely to continue fueling healthy consumer demand.

Syd 00:53 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Some market rumors that the Fed will cut in before the US market opens on Wednesday - if things go badly overnight.

Syd 00:40 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Aussie Nov Housing Finance Defies Rate Hikes

Hong Kong Ahe 00:39 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Due to unwind of carry trades of high yielders, NZDUSD may go to test 0.7521 200DMA support. Now it is still a bit lagging due to AUDNZD staying 1.1356. If the down dragging momentum is high, 260DMA 0.7400 will be a key support. There will be more down dragging movement in the morning European session. GLGT.

MLT PA 00:38 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
eur/usd: as long as 1.4430 is not violated the next main target will be 1.5250.

USA Zeus 00:37 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 00:35 GMT January 16, 2008
Great job NYAM!. Very laser-like precision.

Catch you later.

philadelphia caba 00:37 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
eur/chf: 1.6145 is 38.2% of 1.5040 - 1.6830 .. if does make any sense in this market...

London NYAM 00:35 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
z//sold back out of xau long at 896.70 take the rest down killer.

USA Zeus 00:35 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Whew. Back to the foundations and no more monkeys (until summer anyway.)

Great Trades to all.

isr jweb 00:34 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
stockholm. your views are on the dot and very precise. but its no easy battle to get the eur down..

philadelphia caba 00:34 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
stopped out on eur/chf short...
sold eur/gbp at 7555, s/l above yest. high...

Syd 00:30 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
Australian Nov Housing Finance +4.0% Vs +1.0% Consensus

Stockholm za 00:27 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   

ps..
I notice even the monkey’s start posting on this forum…
Happy trades and all the best…

Stockholm za 00:22 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   

For many many years ago long before you started posting on this forum, those were the kind of post we used to read, it is the foundation type that this forum was built on that make it still valid today, if you don’t believe me ask Dr Qindex or Athens or BC or any of the foundation crew etc. etc.
Have a nice day. No more reply, I am out of here, see you guy`s in the Summer…

US SW 00:10 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
EUR/JPY no strong support in sight at this time...profit taking around 155.70 is possible. Major trendline Broken

London NYAM 00:07 GMT January 16, 2008 Reply   
23:54
Economic Release (Japan Nov) Machine Order (MoM/YoY) out at -2.8%/0.9% vs -4.0%/-1.0% (expected); Current Account Total JPY178.25B vs JPY1876.3B(expected).
USDJPY getting a lift from the latter i suspect.
GBPUSD still has potential to test 1.9550 again with pressure fom the cross from jpy weakness. this level should hold.
za//thanks for response. i see 1.4750 as the level as well but even more crucial is 1.4636 which would, if broken, knock the final eur move for six.

 




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