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Forex Forum Archive for 01/19/2008

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Sydney ACC 21:31 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
This week, the BBC's World Editor, John Simpson, reported under cover from Zimbabwe, where the cost of a meal for himself and some friends in a Harare restaurant was 290,000,000 Zimbabwean dollars. Ever the gentleman, Simpson left a ten-million-dollar tip. In this nightmare state, as Simpson put it, "everyone is a millionaire", yet also, "grindingly poor".

Mtl JP 20:04 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
Raven 16:55 / useful to the extent of ignoring relative interest rates specifically with respect to the yen. The assumption being that the yen is not going to see any movement from the current practical 0% interest anytime soon (lets call that certainty). IF that assumption is correct and seeing the chances of further dramatic asset devaluations, chances are that the yen will (continue to) fly regardless of - and trump - relative interest rate effect attached to it.

MVC-IA-USA JC 17:46 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:38 GMT January 19, 2008

Oops, I forgot to mention the climb in the DOW as well to 25k...I also see a serious problem coming in the EU/ECB equities as well as EUR do you agree with that?

MVC-IA JC 17:44 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:38 GMT January 19, 2008

For the past year we have both been seeing the markets in the same light. I have one question....Economically, what would be your explanation for our views in the fall in commoditites which should continue as well as the serious climb in the USD which should also continue with the USD Index in my view going to at least 95 in the coming years? Thank you for your insight.

Va Raven 16:55 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   

"London-based ratings agency Standard & Poor's has launched a family of indexes designed to model arbitrage strategies in the financial markets. They include the Currency Arbitrage index.

The currency index is based on a carry trade strategy linked to G-10 currencies. The strategy takes a long position in currencies that have a higher interest rate than the US dollar and a short position in currencies that have a lower interest rate than the US dollar. The weight of each currency is directly proportional to its interest rate and inversely proportional to its volatility. "

USA Zeus 16:38 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
austin mw 23:17 GMT January 18, 2008

Presidents don't determine stock levels.
Otherwise, to double the LT ROR Buy DOW on the dip.
It will surpass 25,000 within 4 yrs.

Happy Day!

Dubai NH 14:37 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
Will EUR/USD break the 1.4587 level on monday?

Mtl JP 14:00 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
mw 23:17 / yeah, but supposedly "the economic fundamentals are sound." ? Maybe it is just the financial economy that is precipitously unsound.

Prez Hoover was making similar sounds in early 1929...

Makassar Alimin 05:51 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
HK [email protected] 04:11 GMT January 19, 2008

good r/r to go short approaching 200d ema [email protected], oil looks like a hard one going much lower and is preparing to go up again i think, so can't see reason to make CAD$ suddenly go much weaker, will take something BIG from USD side to send USDCAD above the ma

HK [email protected] 04:11 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
It is a possibility that the Cad$, may begin to appreciate from this level (or at most from 1.0380) to where it suppose to target ~~0.8750. Seems weird. A break above 1.0400 and I give up this idea.

BKK Ar 02:50 GMT January 19, 2008 Reply   
re DJIA: Volume 'increased' from Thursday's move. Next week will test 12,000. The last test (March 07) held and now the weekly is showing a H&S formation. Given the slope of the decline, my call is that 12,000 is going to get hammered, and then next level is 11,500. By that time, we should see Yen back toward 100% fib of 101.67, eur/yen to 150 and Euro testing 1.43 supports. If 12,000 goes, expect to see funds moving into YEN and Gold. This year is going to be very interesting. I HOPE we will see more unwinding of carry trades. If cable/yen takes out the 200 level, then levels toward 190 would be ideal for new carry positions.


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