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Forex Forum Archive for 01/22/2008

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Syd 23:41 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
A leading index of the Australian economy grew at an annualized rate of 6.4% in November, up from 5.2% in October.

The index of where the economy is headed in the next three to nine months is compiled monthly by Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne University's Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.

Syd 23:32 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Australian Leading Economic Index +6.4% In Nov

Syd 23:18 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
AORD All Ordinaries 5,552.60 6:18PM ET 330.60 (6.33%) UP

Syd 23:08 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
ANZ Shares Up 5% Early

seattle AW 23:07 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I'm thinking hold the loonie until it hits 95ish US and 83is yen...any thoughts Madrid?

Gen dk 23:02 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI john 22:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
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Updated Daily Forex Charts...


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Charts: Updated Bourses..
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USA BAY 22:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
eur/usd, resistance at 1.4710

Tallinn viies 22:45 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
yep, hard to declate that by our in-house definiton DOLLAR is now low yield funding currency.
as we use 3 lowest rates against 3 highest rates....
will see whats gonna happen soon :)

Tallinn viies 22:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK:Fed Cut A Declaration Of "State Of Emergency" -censored

2218 GMT [Dow Jones] Fed rate cut is "a declaration of a state of emergency" for U.S. markets and economy, says censored Markets' Ashraf Laidi; "not only has the Fed cut rates by an unprecedented magnitude but it has taken action one week before its scheduled meeting, suggesting it is behind the curve in staving off the threat of recession, while hastily attempting to instill some semblance of stability in a free-falling financial market environment." Decision means Fed will likely cut rates total 100 bps in 8 days, same magnitude that several economists expected to take place for all of 2008. Move by Canada to only cut 25 bps, ECB's silence shows global market gloom is U.S.-centric problem. Combination of further Fed cuts, possible rise in scale of White House's stimulus package at Monday's State of Union address may further boost risk appetite, strengthen carry trades at expense of JPY.

Tallinn viies 22:06 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Rate cut spooks market
NEW YORK (AP) - You never want to see the Federal Reserve panic, but that's what it looked like Tuesday when it cut a key interest rate in a surprise move as stock markets around the globe were tanking.

Ben Bernanke's central bank has been late in responding to the current credit crunch, and its latest move amounts to another reactive versus proactive approach. It also stands in stark contrast to the pre-emptive actions favored by former Chairman Alan Greenspan.

As bad as this appears, don't overlook that the Fed's belated medicine may still help an economy that in recent weeks has teetered on the edge of a recession.

The Fed's mandate is to keep the economy growing and inflation under control. But attempting to bail out financial markets -- there's really no other way to interpret what it did, taking action a week before a regularly scheduled meeting of the Fed's policy-making committee -- also could serve the broader good if it keeps the economy from cratering.

On Tuesday, investors read that as a sign the Fed hit the emergency button, and stocks initially plunged. The Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 465 points in early trading, before giving back some of that decline to finish the day down 128 points. The Dow's nearly 10 percent loss so far in 2008 is its worst start ever for a new year. The same goes for the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index.

The Fed's move reduced the federal funds rate -- what banks charge each other on overnight loans -- to 3.5 percent from 4.25 percent, marking the biggest funds rate cut since the Fed began explicitly targeting that rate starting in 1990.

The central bank also cut its discount rate, the interest it charges on direct loans it makes to banks, by three-quarters of a percentage point, pushing this rate down to 4 percent. Most banks responded by cutting their prime rates, the benchmark for millions of business and consumer loans to 6.50 percent from 7.25 percent.

Tuesday's reversal is stunning, given how the Fed has been dealing with the financial crisis over the last year. For months, Bernanke and others downplayed the possibility that the collapse in housing would spread to other parts of the economy. Then as rising mortgage defaults caused lenders everywhere to start tightening borrowing standards, the Fed remained largely conservative in its action.

Before Tuesday's move, the Fed had cut interest rates three times, first in September, the month after a severe credit crunch had roiled Wall Street and global financial markets. That half-point rate cut was then followed by smaller quarter-point moves in October and December.

But the Fed's response to date has failed to keep this mess from intensifying and spreading into the broader economy. Falling housing prices have made it harder for homeowners to borrow against their properties, which is affecting consumer spending. That's spooking corporate America, with many companies already protectively holding back on hiring.

On top of that, the Fed has only created more uncertainty among investors and consumers by not looking like it was ahead of the curve in dealing with this mess.

It wasn't until Jan. 10 that the Bernanke publicly opened the door to "substantive" cuts in U.S. interest rates -- five months after financial markets had begun to plunge on worries about the economy.

"The Fed has had poor communication, trailed the market, hasn't been grasping the seriousness of the disfunction in the credit markets and repeatedly has been inconsistent in its message," said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at the portfolio management firm Cumberland Advisors. "We still don't know what the consistent policy position is at the Fed."

Some economists hope that Tuesday's move signals a new beginning for Bernanke's Fed. Gone should be the measured approach to mop up the mess left behind by predecessor Greenspan, who kept interest rates at historic lows for so long that it gave rocket scientists on Wall Street free rein to cook up a toxic mix of derivatives and other financial products whose true risk is now apparent.

Greenspan also liked to tout the mantra that the normal operation of market forces would clean up financial excesses. Bernanke has to recognize that today's woes won't improve without the Fed's help.

"Perception is just as important as reality," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at in Shrewsbury, N.J., noting that the public has to think that the Fed is on the case to fix this mess.

That's why most Wall Street economists see additional rate cuts coming. Some even think the Fed could make a 50 basis point cut in the fed funds rate to 3 percent at its policy-making committee meeting next week.

Lower rates can only be good news for the nation's banks, which have been hit on many fronts of this credit crunch. They're seeing delinquencies rise on all types of loans, and have been badly battered by their investments in mortgage-backed securities and the paralysis in many corners of the credit markets.

At the same time, they've been squeezed by the tighter spreads between their borrowing and lending rates. Banks like to borrow short and lend long -- so the drop in the fed funds rate means they can borrow more cheaply and then lend at higher rates.

Assuming the banks don't continue making bad loans, this should boost banks' net interest margin and their profitability, which should shore up their troubled balance sheets. Over time, they then should be comfortable increasing their lending to businesses and consumers.

Looking at Tuesday's action in that light, the Fed's rate cut doesn't look so scary after all.

Syd 22:05 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Australian shares to rebound at least 3% after 12 days of decline, says Michael Heffernan, senior client adviser at Austock Brokers in Melbourne. "We are in for a solid rebound when you consider we are down more than 10% in two days while the U.S. market is down 1% in the same period. We're in for one of the biggest days for quite a long time. We will be looking at 3% to 4%. The futures market is showing 3.5% but it could end up more than that. We're going to see the blue chips forging ahead." Already in pre-open market, BHP is +4%, Rio almost 4% and "the financial services stocks are looking pretty strong. It will mainly be the resource stocks showing the way, which should overflow to the financials as well."

Syd 22:04 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
While Fed's unexpected rate cut has resulted in some trend reversals in FX market, situation remains "very fluid," says Brown Brothers Harriman FX strategists in note; adds EUR has recouped much of last week's losses vs USD and with ECB still in hawkish mode USD "remains vulnerable to further weakness" vs EUR, GBP. Adds despite surprise cut, Fed fund futures still pricing in high odds Fed cuts 50 bps at scheduled meeting next week, with February Fed funds contract at 3.065% vs new Fed fund target of 3.50%. On plus side U.S. equity market recovery, easing risk aversion have helped prevent further JPY

Tallinn viies 22:03 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
read nice expression re FED cut: it isnt really solving the problems. It’s a patient with Malaria given an aspirin –may ease the fever –but not the cold sweats.

Syd 21:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
[Dow Jones] Australian shares are set to rebound after 12 days of decline, says Ben Clark, private client advisor at TMS Capital in Sydney; "there will be buying across the board after massive selling yesterday...

Tallinn viies 21:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Va Raven 21:53 GMT - negative swap points maybe ?

lkwd jj 21:55 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
why did euro run up after falling recently? fed has helped liquidity etc....

Va Raven 21:53 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Any reason to change, jj?

Syd 21:53 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
The entertainment website has reported that Heath Ledger has died of a drug overdose

dc CB 21:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
So the Pod People (Ipod) are not helping things so much.

OK it's time for the next Great White Hunter to step up and take a shot at that charging elephant --- good lord he's already in the room....shoot man....shooooooot.

lkwd jj 21:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
raven any changes to your short euro?

Tallinn viies 21:31 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
eurusd 1,4640-45 is 50% retracement level for last downmove. which is by accident daily high so far. 61,8% retr is 1,4705-10 which is of course next target if previous day highs are taken out. wednesdays close over 1,4710 will immideatelly put last week high 1,4920-25 back on bulls radar screens.

Syd 21:26 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
4Q CPI due 0030 GMT, with higher number likely to support AUD, weigh front end bonds, says Lehman Brothers Australian chief economist Stephen Roberts...
AUD/USD should continue to rally as Asian equities rally, with debt futures selling off "a touch", says ICAP chief economist Matt Johnson

The Netherlands Purk 21:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
More shorts e/u in play. Added one for longer term, and 3 for 14600000000000000000000000000.
Let us see in the morning if i am still alive....

USA BAY 21:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Oh boy, here we go again, another round of ........

Vienna GD 21:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
btw ... i'm in zeus's boat ... dow far beyond 25K in four years.
And below 6666 inflation adjusted.


Vienna GD 21:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Helsinki iw 21:18... are you talking of zeus or the dow?

Syd 21:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
DJ NZ Shares Rise 1% After First 20 Minutes Of Trading

Helsinki iw 21:18 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
JP, by the looks of it, Ben will give so much smack to the junkie it may go to 36 000. Remeber that call?

lkwd jj 21:17 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
mtl jp dont get us started with his [email protected]#$ again it was enuff yesterday.

Mtl JP 21:15 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
zeus - regardless of the volatile swing of the ETA, what is the propellant that you see driving to 25K ?

USA Zeus 14:16 GMT January 22, 2008 / DOW to meet or exceed 25,000 before Dec 31, 2010.

USA Zeus 16:38 GMT January 19, 2008 - It (DOW) will surpass 25,000 within 4 yrs.

Zeus 18:45 GMT May 8, 2007 - DOW 25k by 2010.

Syd 21:12 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
DJ ECB Papademos:2nd-Round CPI Risks Mustn't MaterializeIt is important that price increases in energy and commodities don't prompt excessive wage hikes and result in broader and more persistent inflation in the euro zone, European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos said Tuesday.

Speaking at an event in Luxembourg, Papademos said that "it's particularly crucial for monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations and price stability and to ensure that what we call second-round effects of energy prices and other commodity prices on price and wage not materialize." Unlike the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the ECB hasn't lowered interest rates in the wake of the global financial market crisis to stimulate growth.

The ECB kept its key policy rate at 4% on Jan. 10, highlighting brewing inflation risks and leaving the door open for an interest rate increase later in the year.

Helsinki iw 21:11 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Multiple personality syndrome there dude?

USA Zeus 21:08 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 21:03 GMT January 22, 2008

Bingo Phenom. Thx for the kind words. Will load model for EUR/USD a bit later after todays flows are crunched in the quadratic and post a bit later.

Enjoy the Super Tuesday!
Z out

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 21:07 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

When does the interest rate forecasts update???? Thank you in advance

USA Zeus 21:05 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm 20:51 GMT January 22, 2008

Gotta love the Portuguese Alentejanos.

How much did the markets in Spain selloff since Friday? And the DJIA?

Perhaps Spain can be annexed into the Portuguese Alentejo.

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 21:03 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 20:56 GMT January 22, 2008

"Everything works and nothing works all at the same time."

This is a pearl of a saying if you ask me.....nothing is right and nothing is wrong, it is a matter of perspective. If you keep this in mind when arguing with your wife or girlfriend you may be able to learn something or heck just remember this everyday all day and then the worlds are yours.... Thanks Zeus!!!!

What is your view on the EUR at this time, I am short as usual but I have a feeling it may go to a little above 1.50 say 1.5250 or so but not much further, I will hold steadfast throught the thick of it unless I have a weak momento...Thanks Zeus

USA BAY 21:00 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

Great call Ahe, right on time and exactly on the dot, superb. I got in at 205.56 and got out at 206.85. What not for gbp/jpy sifu. Thanks a lot, that was a great call.

Tallinn viies 20:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
good evening guys,
what a horrible volatilty!
anyway, after FED confirmation (adding tons of more cheap funds to the market) of continuation of last years trends we today may declare key reversals (if I may calll those sharp corrections from the january tops even downtrends) on all the major markets.
look at eurusd, stock indexes, crude.
I can only imagine whats gonna start after Asia comes to the party after couple of hours. Those market were sold off even more than US n Europe.
it will continue and first trigger willl be move over todays highs. go with the flow and just relax.
eurusd, touched double top neckline on dailies and failed miserably. Im big big bull now again until to the end of week. then need to reconsider I guess. to keep stops reasonably close is very hard at current situation. Im personally suggest to follow hourly bollinger and if euro hourly close will come under mid bollinger then its time to look for exit door.
but look at stocks in asia first :)

Syd 20:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Top Democrats Pledge Congress Will Act Urgently On Stimulus

HK [email protected] 20:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
translatye read translate

HK [email protected] 20:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm 20:51 GMT January 22, 2008

So how do you translatye your last post into trading action and what is your target for the Candoloonie

USA Zeus 20:56 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
austin mw 20:24 GMT January 22, 2008
The same bullish model from 2000-2002? Didn't work well then so buyer beware.

Worked beautifully then as it clipped into 100% equity allocation Oct 2002 for the big market bottom post 9/11. There are various versions of such anyway.

To say something doesn't work is like saying MA crossover systems stopped working from 2006-2008. Everything works and nothing works all at the same time.

As for the old "desk colleague indicator with the chirp on the equity desk...'market rally nothing more than short covering. Some interest from l/t but nothing major.”…Please give me regards for the rapid 70 points on the SP 500 wipe the shorts out contra. Perhaps next time they won’t repeat Sue and Bill’s squawk on CNBC. But then again…

What a great day.

Syd 20:51 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
DJ. Nearby fed-funds futures undergo massive re-pricing as FOMC imposes emergency 75 BP cut to 3.5%. February contract, up sharply before the morning announcement, extended its gains. Settle 52 BP higher at 96.95. It's fully priced for another 25 BP ease to 3.25% at next week's regular meeting, with about an 80% chance for a 50 cut to 3%. Apr fully priced for 2.75%, with about a 16% chance for 2.5% at the Mar. 18 FOMC meeting. Apr settles at 97.29, up 44 BP.

madrid mm 20:51 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
...+ I love Canada because they do things differently...While most stock markets around the world are down, the TSX is up massively...

USA should become a province of Canada and speak french as well as english and adopt the Loonie as a currency


lkwd jj 20:49 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
re: $Y are we looking at a tweezer bottom like back in nov26/27? if we close above yesterdays high it will be the same . anybody to confirm/differ?

lkwd jj 20:45 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
ECB, BOE May Follow U.S. Fed Cut, Economists Say (Update4)

By John Fraher and Simon Kennedy

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank and the Bank of England may have to follow the Federal Reserve and cut interest rates as the risk of a U.S. recession threatens to drag down a global expansion, economists said.

``From a European and a U.K. perspective, the Fed cut adds to the risk of more and quicker rate cuts,'' said Amit Kara, an economist at UBS AG in London. Kara, a former economist at the U.K. central bank, predicts four cuts from the Bank of England this year and two by the ECB.

The Fed today lowered its benchmark rate in an emergency move for the first time since 2001 after global stock markets tumbled amid signs the world's largest economy is sliding into recession. The move spurred a rally in European stocks, though failed to stem a decline in U.S. indexes.

The widening interest-rate gap between the U.S. and Europe may spur gains in the euro, worsening the outlook for an economy already showing signs of a slowdown by hobbling exports. German investor confidence dropped to the lowest since 1992 in January and European manufacturing growth slowed in December.

``This market has been calling for help,'' said Alberto Espelosin, who helps to manage about $12 billion at Zaragoza, Spain-based Ibercaja Gestion. ``The ECB should follow suit.''

The Bank of Canada, in a scheduled meeting, lowered its main rate by a quarter point today to 4 percent and signaled it will act again to shield Canada from the U.S. slowdown.

Yields Fall

Investors are increasing bets Europe's two major central banks will cut borrowing costs, interest-rate futures trading shows. The ECB's benchmark rate is currently 4 percent, while the Bank of England's 5.5 percent is the highest among the Group of Seven industrial nations.

The yield on the June ECB contract fell to 3.80 percent today from yesterday's close of 3.94 percent. On the June U.K. contract, the yield fell 3 basis points to 4.89 percent.

The ECB and the U.K. central bank refused to give away their intentions. The Bank of England said it has no plans to bring forward the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, which is scheduled for Feb. 7. ECB council members Juergen Stark and Yves Mersch declined to comment on the Fed's decision.

The Swiss National Bank also declined to comment, as did spokespeople for the central banks of Norway and Sweden.

The euro, which touched a record $1.4967 on Jan. 23, rose 1.1 percent to $1.4613 at 6:33 p.m. Frankfurt time after the Fed's announcement. The pound climbed 0.9 percent to $1.9611.

`Forced to Act'

``If it becomes clear that this is merely a temporary fix, and the situation deteriorates further, then the ECB will be forced to act,'' said Ken Wattret, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in London.

While David Brown, chief European economist at Bear Stearns Cos. in London, predicted the Bank of England will cut its rate next month and the ECB will do so in the second quarter, he ruled out either following the Fed in reducing rates outside their normally scheduled meetings, as they did in September 2001.

``It's not their style,'' said Brown. ``European central banks tend to move by the calendar.''

European inflation at a six-year high of 3.1 percent, breaching the ECB target of just below 2 percent, is limiting policy makers' room for maneuver. President Jean-Claude Trichet said Jan. 10 that the bank is ready to act ``preemptively'' to raise rates to contain consumer prices.

`Dramatic' Change

Since then, evidence has mounted that the European economy may be starting to become infected by the U.S. slump. Industrial production shrank in November and banks told the ECB this month that they will tighten credit in the next three months.

``Conditions have changed dramatically of late and even from an ECB perspective, this is not the time to worry about inflation,'' said Audrey Childe-Freeman, an economist at CIBC World Markets in London.

Some members of the ECB's governing council have already softened their tone. Luxembourg's Yves Mersch said in a Jan. 15 interview that the bank should exercise caution amid ``downside risks to economic activity.'' Germany's Axel Weber cautioned the same day not to ``over-dramatize'' a pick-up in inflation.

Holger Schmieding, Bank of America Corp.'s chief European economist, said the economy remains strong enough to cope with the current ECB rate.

``Economic data would have to be much, much weaker to trigger a rate cut at the ECB,'' said Schmieding, who is based in London.

Cut `Justified'

U.K. policy makers cut their main rate by a quarter-point in December to spur economic growth, and economists already expected a similar reduction next month before the Fed shifted today.

Growth in the U.K. is showing signs of slowing as a surge in credit costs curbs consumer spending and brings a decade-long housing boom to a halt. The economy probably expanded 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, the slowest in 2 1/2 years, according to the median of 35 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey.

Richard Lambert, a former policy maker at the bank who now runs the Confederation of British Industry, said the bank ``can justify a cut in the near-term.''

Brown at Bear Stearns said both the Bank of England and ECB should be biased towards cutting sooner rather than later because delay may mean they only have to reduce their key rates by much more in the future.

``The longer they leave it, the more they'll have to do,'' he said

madrid mm 20:44 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
my 2 euros centimes that DJ will finish positve and manana NIKKEI + 600


madrid mm 20:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Forget the FED and Chairman Bernanke, together they don't amount to a hill of beans come to think of it.

The truth is, the world , SWF, Gisele , Japanese Housewives, PAR (8-)) and hedge funds carry a bigger stick than the FED.


madrid mm 20:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Pimco's Gross Says Fed Rate Cut a `Sad Testimony' (Update1)

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, said the Federal Reserve's emergency cut in borrowing costs today is a ``sad testimony'' on the state of the U.S. economy.

The central bank cut the target overnight lending rate to 3.5 percent from 4.25 percent after stock markets tumbled from Hong Kong to London amid increasing signs of a U.S. recession. Policy makers weren't scheduled to gather until next week.

``It's a sad testament to think the Fed has to cut interest rates eight days in front of a meeting to salvage the equity markets,'' said Gross, the founder and chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``The U.S. economy is in a rather sad state of affairs in that it depends on housing and stock prices to keep going.''

Mtl JP 20:34 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
dc CB, I just posted on GVI, fwiw:

I believe this came out first around early dec 07:

Leaders to receive report on financial stability in March - Brown

BRUSSELS (Thomson Financial) - EU leaders will receive a report on how to improve financial stability at their next meeting in March as the world economy grapples with recent market turbulence, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said.
Brown said leaders meeting here have agreed this is a priority for the EU over the next few months, including "improving credit rating agencies and the way they work".

whoever is preparing this missive may have to hurry up before it becomes useless before it gets printed.

one should perhaps start distinguishing real economy (where people make an honest profit for honest work) from financial machinations one.

madrid mm 20:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I love Canada but more so this Loonie...8-)

dc CB 20:31 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
"14:19: Stocks back off as BOE King makes some hawkish statements on inflation"

What with this guy, somebody call him ad tell him to Get with the Program. Does the Fed have to carry all the weight. We just pulled your sorry butt off the ledge. We take one day off and when we come back we find total panic!
By the way didn't you guys once Rule the World, or was is Waves, I forget.

madrid mm 20:27 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
This video is so appropriate. This is what Gisele is telling all the CBs around the world youTube

Here is a little song I wrote
You might want to sing it note for note
Don't worry be happy

austin mw 20:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
The same bullish model from 2000-2002? Didn't work well then so buyer beware.

USA Zeus 20:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Ahh Abby Jo Co using model not dissimilar to the Zeus/Yardeni Fed Stock model she chirps on CNBC.

warsaw TOMi 20:19 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
good heavens NYAM, we fought back this fall down, thanx especially to AHE, lucky day :)
lets continue this rally for a little while,until we squeeze them tight.


Mtl JP 20:09 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 19:12 / re "....There is still inflation in USA big time from reports I get from yanks who have to go shopping each week..." Not un-expected with Bush, Paulson and Bernanke throwing us money for nothing. But it is a near-sure sign of serious crisis at their doorstep. Romans too used to throw bread to pleibians to keep them at bay. How many, do u think, are going to take the 600 or 800 giftbux and buy flour and other food staples ?

Next shoe to drop will be jobs #s

Como Perrie 19:58 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
But for today the mood is (positive) negativity somehow..

Yet the full moon, more suitable to asean investors, will lead to another sell off asean hours..

watch the show of madness, hope and religious tricks applied to economics :== It goes real funny to me now

Como Perrie 19:55 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
There's series of banks world wide ready for failure, so their customers. So the story isnt yet finished, just a desperate move from central banks thinking lower rates to hold up this global madness and interests from the WTO and Multinationals to gather customers globe wide. Customers are simply ill long time now as globalisation has cut into their surviving capabilities, some even excessively in debt, not only americans.

PAR 19:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Crude up more than four dollar from low after Fed cut . Good for oil shares bad for economy .

MNB 19:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Stagflation or inflation...... rather than to panic and speculate, hust remeber we are in what the down stroke of a swinging economic pendulum. So, if you got the moola, stick it else where. Stocks , bonds, property or Futures trading are but a few options. Ultimately those who can hold their nerve, and work around the situation will survive. I don't see people jumping out of buildings yet. Volitility is the mother of growth, it makes a lot of people poor but a few become censored rich..... so don't panic the bucks are out there.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:12 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I'm wondering, since Fed galloped full speed into too hasty of rate hikes that they likewise will gallop into rate cuts THEN say "whoa horsey" and back up AGAIN. This could end up like a soap opra tangled FX mkt going back & forth mindlessly rushing about correcting for over correcting blabla. There is still inflation in USA big time from reports I get from yanks who have to go shopping each week whether the "official" data agrees with super market & builder's supply shoppers or not. Therefore more rate cuts will lead to yet more inflation. What I think USA has is stagflation at this point rather than just pure text book recession...the worst nightmare, anyone disagree? and please say why.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:53 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Today's UBS FX Strategy
UBS Fundamentals:

USD firm as stock mkt rout continues
BOJ holds firm w/ unanimous vote, 2007 growth lower than potential growth
GBP Positive data helps GBP, support given for UK mortage lender in trouble (bonds to be sold) which supported GBP, money supply was more than expected, data releases positive. UBS remains bearish on GBP however long term. UBS targets EUR/GBP @ 0.75 & 0.74 over 1 & 3 months respectively.

AUD UBS thinks it won't hike near term due to soft data ahead of tomorrow's Q4 CPI data and also due to global distress in stock mkts.
NZD UBS concensus is no change at meeting Thur. but Governor Bollard remains hawkish. UBS prefers now to sell all commodity cncys against USD, they're long USD/CAD.
ECB under pressure to cut, bias is dovish, ECB's Stark arned CIP continues high next few mo's, cautions abt volitility, positive on German econ

UBS Technical FX:
EURUSD NEUTRAL Loss of trend-line support originating from August exposes 1.4311. Heavy near-term below 1.4622
USDJPY BEARISH Heavy near-term below 106.98, with focus on 104.16 GBPUSD BEARISH Downward momentum waning, but only a move through 1.9793 would relieve downward pressure on 1.9184
USDCHF BEARISH Constructive above 1.0954, targeting 1.1192 key resistance
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Vulnerable beneath 0.8881, targeting 0.8553/38 key support zone
USDCAD BULLISH Constructive above 1.0126, with our focus on 1.0441
EURCHF BEARISH Break of 1.6183 necessary to relieve pressure on 1.5947 - trigger for 1.5721
EURGBP BULLISH Violation of 0.7416 exposes 0.7363. Heavy short-term below 0.7613
EURJPY BEARISH Bearish below 156.41 sighting 150.00 en route to 149.27

Vienna GD 18:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Geneva 18:29 ... LOL

PAR 18:34 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply

Geneva 18:29 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Vienna GD 18:23 GMT January 22, 2008

Sorry don't agrea with you, I don't see 200$

Vienna GD 18:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Geneva 18:13 ... it will go to 200 anyway ... so who cares about the fed when it will hit 200.

I prefer disaster later rather than sooner. We all know the end of the story - so enjoy the fun until it lasts - not?!

Geneva 18:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
The Fed will drive the crude to 110$! They are carzy!

lkwd jj 17:48 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
stopped @ b/e. like they say no harm no foul!! off to lunch ! at least the lunch wont be 'spicy or hot'.

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:44 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
From my news feed today only:
1. Maryland (USA state) budget analyst urges caution.
2. Most traders are flat with some shorts on NZD/USD & EUR/GBP.
3. RBNZ meeting Thursday, expected no change.
4. Jan 30 FOMC meeting expected another cut.
5. BOE should consider emergency cut if confidence worsens (BBC)
6. After today's cut, US FED:"No data to move Fed away from further 50bp cut"
7. BOC to quicken pace of cuts after Fed move
8. Citigroup reports over $30bln of new capital

London NYAM 17:29 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
lkwd jj 17:21//you are welcome. The pair seems to be mirroring the equities more than usdjpy used to. If so, the present move up over 1.9607 may just be a b-wave confirmed on the dow with a break below 11900 (otherwise it will be off to the races to close positive). if thats the case then another swing down may happen to as little as 1.9535 or as much as previously mentioned values. Underlying higher order pattern still suggests we will ultimately see higher. glgt

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:27 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I posted on Help Forum seconds ago some things for newer traders while the mkt sleeps.

PAR 17:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Bernanke , the " Escobar" from interest drugs.

lkwd jj 17:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
nyam thanks . might just close it before going out to lunch.
could not get thru to see-em-see earlier today by phone after fed move. platform was fine though.

PAR 17:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USDJPY aiming for stops above 107.00 . Target 108.00 .

Why is it that everytime EURJPY approaches 150.00 the Fed cuts its rates?

London Mamun 16:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin
you may follow my order. if filled, less risk but more profit.

US SW 16:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
DONT BUY the SPY here.....we are in a Bear Market....I would suggest waiting another 6 months....with that said I think the euroyen is topping out short term and will test 154.80 soon....

London Mamun 16:54 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
My god, my position has survived, and filled snp at 1318
Closed at 1305 and 11930

Open order as bellow:
Sell (1) Dow at 12045 and 75 stop 12085 (2) 12185 stop 12235
(1) snp at 1315-18 stop 1323 (2) 1329 stop 1333
(1) sell gold at 898 stop 902

long dow at 11565 stop 11475
long snp at 1255 stop

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 16:52 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Added short here on EUR at 1.4632 for a dance lower much lower...If I had the moola I would be buying the S&P when it hits 1200...

philadelphia caba 16:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
sold one more eur/gbp at 7460, s/l above 7500, t/p 73xx

London NYAM 16:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
lkwd jj 16:26/ll at 1.9595 stop above the high target 1.9550-67 or buy at target stop at 1.9535 or wait and see if that last area is broken you can pick it up for a long between 1.9445 and 1.9480 stop under the low today and tarhet 1st 1.97 area and potential to 1.99+.

rom 16:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

rom 16:42 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Is anyone trading with censored?I cannot access neither their station nor their site.thanks!

lkwd jj 16:41 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
short cable 19607. 2 cents a bit much for this thing to rally vs usd. stop is tight

philadelphia caba 16:41 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
BoE says (early today) NO plans to bring forward Feb 6-7 MPC meeting...

Lahore FM 16:40 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
interesting times!fed cuts by 75 basic points.usd gets sold off again but the decline shud have been larger than this.stox still vacillating at the lows.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
jj, yes it can. You don't have to worry til the BOE meeting in a couple weeks unless of course they schedule a meeting before the set day...then you have something of an urgency. Other than that just hang out here and talk with English traders who now their CB. As Zeus brought up, the other CBs aren't going to rush right in after the Fed. and Banque du Canada for several reasons...including adhering to a scheduled meeting date.

KL FS 16:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
i think that's it as far as 75 bp cut can push up equities, last chance to get out at 12k seen, we are heading lower going into friday
same for jpy pairs, exhausted by last push

lkwd jj 16:30 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
will this move by the fed open the door for boe to cut by more than 25? uk in same position as usa if not worse.

lkwd jj 16:26 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
london nyam thoughts on cable here above 196?

lkwd jj 16:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
stopped on my swiss from 10918 @10980. thought 140 pt cushion from highs would be ok.

munich st 16:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, what is your present take on eurusd? Appreciate your sharing.

USA Zeus 16:11 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
SP 500 futures off only 1.75 pts (- 0.1%) from Friday and up HUGE from the open 1 1/2 hrs ago. The key to making it big on volatility days is to trade discipline- not various opinions and random stubborn biases.

System indicates 2- way volatility is likely soon.
Crush it hard! Pedal to the metal day!!

Happy Super Tuesday!

Mtl JP 16:09 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
PAR 14:57 / that would not go far enough to repair the underlaying problem. Only honest profits and honest money will. It is an old fundamental rule and it can not be violated without punishment.

ALL banks are polluted to their rotten core: US, Chinese, EU. What these pups need is low cost of short money and lend it out at astronomically higher rates longer out. In addition, they need people to use banks for their services so that they can sock em with higher user fees. Preferably lots and lots of higher user fees.

PAR 15:54 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Yen weakness against all currencies will help Japanese exporters and sent Nikkei sharply higher overnight.

KL FS 15:52 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
thanks mw, to be honest it is disappointing to see Dow has not even touched Friday's low, this will provide opportunity to sell towards closing today when the euphoria settles down

austin mw 15:46 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Note from former collegue on equity desk, market rally nothing more than short covering. Some interest from l/t but nothing major.

Makassar Alimin 15:46 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
if commods are up, stocks up, oil up, why would Trichet cut? I thought he has always been worrying about keeping inflation in check

seattle AW 15:46 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

USA Zeus 15:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
FYI- SP 500 futures off 0.83% from Friday's close atm.

PAR 15:42 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Trichet must cut . EURJPY up 2.5 %, EURCNY up 1.5 % and EURUSD closing in on alltime high .

USA Zeus 15:42 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
No question. ECB and BOE will cut. There must be at least a small gap in time from the FOMC actions to display a (false sense of) independence as if they came up with an original idea.

AMS MAXXIM 15:38 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
TSX COMP up 298

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:37 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 15:11 GMT January 22, 2008 ////agreed. But we have to wait for a bit while BOE ponders stuff...then spouts its plan in a couple weeks before we really know what the mkt makes of it all. by that time Fed can pounce again as well mixing up things yet more. Overall as you know I've said shorting USD is an overall long term winner but I dunno how many of you are long term players here.

Makassar Alimin 15:35 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
tried euro short 1.4631, got some resistance around here, stop above 1.4670

AMS MAXXIM 15:29 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Amsterdam takes on Wall street right way 55.5% agree.

PAR 15:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Mad/ Mersh . Euro again rallying against yen and yuan . Trichet should stop this to reduce Chinese and Japanese growing imbalances with Europe .

singapore td 15:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
let's try short eurjpy 155.30 stops above today's high, sense trouble getting above that
try short DJI as well 11857, stop also above today's high

i believe we will see big action towards the close

AMS MAXXIM 15:19 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Lights are always on

madrid mm 15:19 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
just look at that gold

madrid mm 15:18 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
that would be funny to have the DJ finishing the day in positive territory.......

And i woud not be surprised


madrid mm 15:16 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
...and gold is back to the 880 lvl

madrid mm 15:12 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Where is Yves Mersch when we need him ?!?!?!?!


Paris Hilton 15:11 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
see how strength the NZD and AUD are

madrid mm 15:11 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
PAR 14:57 GMT

by whom ?
The telletubbies ?
Woody and Buzz from Toystory ?
Pinochio ?
Japanese housewives ?


KL FS 15:11 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
dont get caught in this short term euphoria, more downside coming for stocks and carry trades
now the virus in the market has become resistant to 1 time 75 bp dose, next time equal amount or less won't have an effect at all
the patience is almost dead

dc CB 15:05 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Missed in all the excitement.
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 4 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 4 1/4 per cent........................................
In line with this outlook, the Bank has decided to lower the target for the overnight rate and further monetary stimulus is likely to be required in the near term to keep aggregate supply and demand in balance and to return inflation to target over the medium term.

The Bank's detailed projection for the economy and inflation, and risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report Update on 24 January 2008.

HK Kevin 14:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 14:50, Many thanks. Thinking of placing buy AUD/JPY order near 91.60-80, stop below 91.50

SG Harry 14:58 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Interesting to note: Vix back the high lvls seen back in August, 37.5 ish. It would seem that each time the Vix hits about that lvl it equated to fear--->excessive moves---->(and most importantly) a reversal.

PAR 14:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Seems like best solution to stabilise the markets would be replace Bernanke , replace Fukui and replace Trichet as they did at Mer and at Citi .

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:56 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Clue on BOE = BoE meeting if moved forward that's scheduled for 2nd week in Feb. indicates "emergency" cut. At meeting it'll cut almost guaranteed. Question is how much...mkt will move or not on that amount.

Clue on ECB = no clue...meeting is today...Tritchet will do whatever the mkt doesn't anticipate, he's that way. I'd say ECB will cut, how much is up for grabs. Rumblings predict 100bp to get the so falsely called "strong economy" out of trouble & to more equally match el Fed. Mkt will move some on "how much " of a cut. ECB has to be careful, not a lot of ammo in the rate cut magazine either. I have not a clue as to what amount of bp ECB will consider.

What CBs & politicians wanting to "look good" have to realize is rate cutting is a gamble - bandaid that while good for a time doesn't solve core problems. Once out of ammo with rate cuts (like Japan is), yer done & bound to fate. Tax cuts & money supply then become ammo bandaids & again that's got limits. Any fiat currency that's not stoutly based on precious metals is like this, (meaning about all) none are immune but any precious metal currency would spell doom for exports this day in age because that cncy would be very high, & cash flow inter-country would be 100% negitive with no manufacturing, no tourism, hence a world of fake money & debt notes.

Hong Kong Ahe 14:50 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:37 GMT - Hi Kevin, yes especially NZD and AUD. NZDUSD has corrected to hit its 0.7406 260 DMA from round top of 0.7900. It will rebounce back to 0.7800 level. AUDJPY is a bit lag but it will do in a range of 90.00 - 98.00. While I see, GBPJPY will gain a bit of time to correct at least to 216.50. GLGT.

Toronto tn 14:40 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Though this is obviously not the appropriate forum for this, the real right time to buy the financials is when the SWF start bailing out at pennies on the dollar for what they paid.

Maribor 14:38 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:35 GMT January 22, 2008

You will take all candies!!!


HK Kevin 14:37 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe, do you think the rate cut of FED will encourage carry trade to come back?

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
austin mw 14:31 GMT January 22, 2008

Ummm......they are going to go up, everything in the US will go up, the FED will make a giant band aid and place it over the whole economy and all willl be good until the band aid falls off in a few years time.... :)

and the band aid is colored green of course to represent profits lol

USA Zeus 14:35 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Bought Citi (C) allocation earlier @ 22.45

Maribor 14:32 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 17:02 GMT January 18, 2008
YHOO long term buy level 19 soon to be hit.
Hm, will have to wait a little...but is on the way.

austin mw 14:31 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:28 GMT January 22, 2008
IF you believe that then you must be looking for a quick turn in the financial sector because bull markets don't last w/o this sector being strong.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:28 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Kevin, agreed on XAU. It's why Russian Federation & Asia hoarded while other dumb saps sold it off. 2008 said to be a pivot year yielding frightful events up to/including 2012. I don't necessarily believe the 2012 thing 100% but it's possible given geopoliticals + instability world wide...& if 1 or 2 biggies fall, down go the rest who sell/sold to them, metals mkts & food = safehouses.

Mkt waiting for more CBs to play ball. Canada, USA down, BOE, ECB to go...tick tick pip pip. Big fish will enter gradually however after they know if ECB BOE will cut or NOT, moving mkt only 100 pips at a whack, so don't look for a huge spurt. If you know someone who's got big flow numbers, plead with them to clue you before it hits clearing houses.

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:28 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 14:17 GMT January 22, 2008
MER = Merrill Lynch, C = Citibank, XLF = Financial Sector Select SPDR Fund

I am total agreement with you a small minor fall may still be in the stars but I am betting on a climb on the DOW to 18,000 in the next 18 months and the S&P lagging a bit but still gaining huge ground....and the my usual saying...USD Index going to at least 90...

madrid mm 14:27 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
it does not matter if you buy or sell really, as long as you are profitable


A rumor has it that Gisele called Bennie to ask him for a cut. She also promised to send him a dedicated photo of herself in a bikini designed with euros and usd$

I love Gisele in bikini !!!!

Ok let's look pro for a short moment, the r1 on euro/usd at 1.4565ish still holding ....

US SW 14:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
anyone here buying the euro yen...anyone thing the selling is done for a couple weeks

austin mw 14:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Citi a buy sub 12 and Mer in 30's. Why, both still have further writedowns and until these a quantified it is very difficult to value either on book or pe's. Citi indicated 21 pre open.

UK Alex 14:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Buying Merrill with its ineffective hedges is a bad idea.

USA Zeus 14:22 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 14:17 GMT January 22, 2008
You are very smart. I'm also buying MER and C for the family treasure chest over here in a DCA ($ Cost Ave) strat with the strategic opportunity investment allocation for a no brainer freebie.


KL FS 14:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
PAR 14:17 GMT January 22, 2008

LOL, that would make him the clown of the day, after all these times talking up EU economy, hawkish and holding rates and suddenly out of nowhere cutting rates

philadelphia caba 14:18 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
PAR 14:17 GMT
BoE no such plan ... according to Reuters

Maribor 14:17 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
MER = Merrill Lynch, C = Citibank, XLF = Financial Sector Select SPDR Fund

dc CB 14:17 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
It's like those 1950's B&W big game hunt safari movies. The white guys -bwanas- who never have to carry anything are faced with a rouge elephant that threatens their bearers' village. The first Great White Bush hunter steps in the path of the charging elephant and fires his big gun. Observing no real effect on the oncoming Pachyderm, he steps aside, elephant guns being only one-shot deals. The other White Hunters, who are not so great, hesitate, and ponder the adequacy of their single shot weapons.

PAR 14:17 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Rumor Trichet to cut 100 bp after todays ecofin meeting .

USA Zeus 14:16 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
US equities will (again) be the safe haven for global equity investors which will be a boost for the USD.
Some things never change. Cycles are cycles.

DOW to meet or exceed 25,000 before Dec 31, 2010.

USA Skeptic 14:14 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
guess you aren't such a phenom then

melbourne DC 14:14 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
01:11 *DJ BOE: No Plans To Bring Forward Feb MPC Meeting

with almunia, boj met earlier ... no coordinated cut

HK Kevin 14:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:06 GMT, the smart money is parked to GOLD.

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:12 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 14:04 GMT January 22, 2008
FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:00 GMT January 22, 2008

MER is under long term buy level(~51), C is under long term buy level(25), XLF is under long term buy level(27). May go down for short term, but these are good levels to accumulate.

what is MER or C or XLF? I am ignorant at the moment, enlighten me please...

Jkt Rick 14:10 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Jkt Rick 11:31 GMT November 30, 2007
the date is nov 30 2007, and the dow jones stands at 13000. the fall is going to be so fast below the 10 000 level. 2007-2008 will be the bloodiest year for stocks in a very very long time

at the time of writing, dow was at 13500 not 13000...anyways...we are going to see blood baths....and maybe many suicidal deaths...i am not kidding...this year is going to be very tragic and many sad events will take place...

i got out of stocks at the top and heavily shorted it at the top and i have only one person to thank....the people at the federal reserve for creating such a beautiful boom.

KL FS 14:10 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
forget about other CBs to cooperate, the playing field is not level

what can BOJ do in this regard anyway, nothing to cut, everyone is on their own

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:06 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
If BOE and/or ECB cuts (augmented by other CBs, not out of the question) then logically USD should therefore be supported. But we don't know what the big fish are going to do actually, they're waiting for X & Y to happen or not happen so they can proceed to their preplanned strategies. We are clueless at FXer level as to what that is. There is no way to know unless you are privy to very very top levels which none on this side of the forum are and very few (but some, fortunately!) on the GVI pro side either.

Maribor 14:04 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:00 GMT January 22, 2008

MER is under long term buy level(~51), C is under long term buy level(25), XLF is under long term buy level(27). May go down for short term, but these are good levels to accumulate.

HK Kevin 14:03 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
philadelphia caba 13:51 GMT, I am also watching EUR/GBP to go short, but it seems market is betting BOE the next to cut

madrid mm 14:03 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
La Banque du Canada abaisse le taux cible du financement à un jour de un quart de point pour le ramener à 4 %

PAR 14:02 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Imho Fed no longer independent , but just protecting the carry trades of the Us banks ,fearing that that domino would also drop .

madrid mm 14:01 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
i love Canada !!!

My spread is 30 pips on usd/cad....8-)

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:00 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Oh yeah cant forget BoA as well...Happy Happy trades

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:00 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Fed in MVHO = bouncing off bunker walls expending ammo in the dark. There is now only 350 bp of ammo left in the magazine if you count zero bp interest. The idea was to cut 100bp by end of Jan so expect more soon. I'm not convinced it's gonna be only 100bp total cut, I'd say maybe more - another 50 possible. Spike now subsiding as big fish wait..spike from FXers likely, not big fish surely (thought it would be more than this truthfully) tells me big fish waiting for BOE & ECB's moves if any. THEN is when you'll see core mkt. You can't believe anything Frankfurt's ECB hotdog says anyway, actions speak louder than words for them so they'll cut when they'll cut. But if those European CBs also cut then it's see-saw fragmented FX as dem open bomb bays rock the mkts. Take it as it comes but stay hid.

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:00 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I dont think a .75 cut is equal to the Wachovia and Citi no no......EUR on downward and the U/Y to at least 103.

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 13:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Oh dear, everyone back to the other side of the boat....hehehehe.........USD coming round the mountain...

madrid mm 13:53 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Banque du Canada is next ....fwiw

philadelphia caba 13:51 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
sold eur/gbp ... will re-think if close above 7495 today..

KL FS 13:49 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 13:45 GMT January 22, 2008

so you are expecting 13200 to print by 31st january? no way man, i am not buying that, that would be biggest ever v-reversal i have seen

nah, won't happen

Maribor 13:45 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 13:43 GMT January 22, 2008

Maybe unreal, but should happen to minimize demage on world economic and financial system

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:44 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I'm getting too "Chatty" here but yes BOE AND ECB are supposed to coordinate rate cuts according to what I've been told to keep those cncy's more equal...for they also have some economic shimmeys that rate cuts could bandaid. That spike made me some breakast dough, am flat now. I have NO CLUE as to what other CBs are to do today...other than hear-say that yes they're gonna cut. By how much, dunno. This is the time for a fast news service & quick mouse index finger.

Syd 13:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
dj The fixed income markets have gone deadly quiet in reaction to the Fed's 75bps cut as traders wait for reaction when New York opens Tuesday. Prices have been pulled from broker screens as traders try to ascertain the aftermath. The Fed is now expected to cut by a further 25 bps when it meets on Jan. 30, say market sources

KL FS 13:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 13:38 GMT January 22, 2008

unfortunately that is inevitable, what on earth would they think by cutting 75 bp to make stox rally from 11500 to above 13200 in just 8 days left? unreal

Maribor 13:42 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
PAR 13:39 GMT January 22, 2008
This will bring crude back to $ 100 .

Target is 130.

Maribor 13:41 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 13:26 GMT January 22, 2008

I even expect additional 0,5-1% (if needed) cut on 30.- 31.januar.

Cable to 2,2 in my opinion(could not analysed it yet).

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:40 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Repeat, if anyone has an "in" with BOE & ECB info as to their purported coordinated rate cuts with Fed's today, PLEASE post. Those moves & not the Fed so much are what the big fish will decide on to place their money in finality. My news services are both down, rats.

USA Zeus 13:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hasselt Red 13:28 GMT January 22, 2008

Multiple news and infos and compilation of my own for calendar since most are incomplete, inaccurate or sloppily created which is unacceptable for such critical tools of the trade. GL! :-)

HK Kevin 13:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:33 GMT, may be it's a coordinated effort by major CBs to cut rate. Who's next? ECB or BOE.

KL FS 13:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:29 GMT January 22, 2008

great, soon they will have to cut to zero to keep bailing out some wrong-footed big institutions

i wonder what will they do if stocks keep declining at the same time we have rising commods, this is what's gonna happen later

PAR 13:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
This will bring crude back to $ 100 .

Maribor 13:38 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 13:26 GMT January 22, 2008

Well, I do not think that is mistake. According to what we have seen last days(and weeks), stocks are headed for ~40% fall(from top). Wealth effect shows that 3-10% increase in stock market value goes to spending. As world stock market capitalization is approx. 120 % of world GDP, fall of 40% would decrease spending by 1,5-5% of GDP. That is important.

For USA it is very important, if SP500 and DJI would close this month above 1466 and 13247, otherwise something like year 1929 will happen - stocks could lose 2/3 of their value during next few years.

madrid mm 13:37 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
off to try some scalps


madrid mm 13:35 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:21

no heart attack, simply practicing meditation

And remember, market will do whatever it will do and there is nothing i can do about it


May the force be with you all...this is only begining as big players will start thinking about re balancing the asset classes they have...

Forget about egos.... trust your instinct and your MM and your leverage


quito_ecuador_valdez 13:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, you are a valuable asset to this forum needless to say. If you disagree with me THAT'S GOOD because it gives me an excellent source to ponder.

To all, now that the spike's done we wait for other CBs to enter the gaming table. If anyone has a true clue on those moves, that'll decide the end of day winners.

Gen dk 13:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 13:32 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
* Federal Reserve Cuts Rate 0.75 Percentage Point, Cites Weakening Outlook

* U.S. Stock Futures Pare Drop After Fed Reduces Benchmark Rate 0.75 Point


Hong Kong Ahe 13:31 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USA Bay, Hi I do hope that you have gained from the rebounce of GBPJPY. If it stays above 208, it will go to test 213. GLGT.

PAR 13:31 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
PPT on red alert.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:30 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I expected -50 now + another -50 next week so am confused as to immediate future with other CB cuts waiting online. Remember this Fed cut was supposed to be coordinated with other top CBs so things are just starting. The trading question now is whether another Fed will go -25 next week emergency style again or will Fed be satisfied for a while? With no Fed crystal ball anything goes. There is always a lag between announcement spikes & when stuff moves and clears the clearing houses big time so frankly if you TP'd on this & didn't stop out be happy & wait. The other CBs (ECB, BOE + possibly more) are pending rate cuts so as to not have too much contrast with low USD are to happen today I'm told.

St. Annaland Bob 13:29 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

Valdez, long live the old guardia ... hats off!

HK Kevin 13:29 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 13:26 GMT, it's not a big mistake. ECB don't have this courage when Europe also faces deflation pressure in the coming future.

Hasselt Red 13:28 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:20 GMT January 22

what news source/calendar are you using?

KL FS 13:26 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
LOL big mistake by Fed, now what? losing and wasting more bullets, and nothing change, end of today's DJI will be under 11k and what would they do tomorrow?

USA Zeus 13:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:08 GMT January 22, 2008
There is no war. Only various opinions. If they are polar opposites that is fine too.

GL with the eventual harvest. Hope it is bountiful.

PAR 13:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
A little disappointing. I was looking for 100 bp today .

US SW 13:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
WE nailed that one...EURO upp big on FED Push for 75 bases points

munich st 13:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Real panic, they couldn't wait 8 days...

KL FS 13:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
stick with the plan, sell equities, and sell jpy pairs, will work out nicely, eurjpy wont stay above 155.70 for weekly close

KL FS 13:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
this is a bonus, wait till dust settles and we hit it hard

Hong Kong Ahe 13:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm 13:16 GMT LOL, heart attack now. sudden spike of 100, rate cut announced,

USA Zeus 13:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
FOMC lowers .75 bps

madrid mm 13:16 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
jkt-aye maybe..8-)

is it me or it is true , because i feel some nervousness in this market ......Can anybody feel it in the air as well ?


May the force be with us...

keyboard ....check
screens ...check
coffee pot....check
heart bit.....heart bit....?!?!?! no heart bit


Geneva 13:10 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
The world is in leaders ship crises!

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:08 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
No war if you only have one player. I don't use GV-FF for wars..I say it, that's it. I don't care who agrees/disagrees, it's trading ideas only, not Mt. Olympus thunder. I expect & want critique, that's what FF is for. I can't be right 100% & open minds win...egos lose. I have no ego in business. I win. War = immature minds w/ gaming egos, clueless to communication.
E/$ reversing to long..time to concentrate.

jkt-aye 13:06 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
MM 12:50... think to change profession ? lol

USA Zeus 13:06 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:55 GMT January 22, 2008

If you are suggesting that 99% of the traders don't have a system that produces positive results nor have the discipline for such then they should always be out. Better to put it all in postal bonds or T-Bills for guaranteed small returns vs piking some randomness for any chance of little for any efforts.

Otherwise these are the times of year the real income in trading is made.

Cheers no less!

BKK Ar 12:56 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
1.95 has been taken out, so cable will continue lower.
My strike rate has been nearly 100% this month because I have remained long dollars, and tonight is going to be an extension of the sell-off which is fueling $ strength.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:55 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, those traders are about 1% of total FXers. the other 99% should stay out at times like this. The trouble is that those who should stay out HOPE they can emulate the pros but can not...suffering margin calls and stop losses. Anyone who plays big right now I'll argue has to have the funds able to lose without the slightest remorse.

madrid mm 12:55 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
* U.S. Stock Index Futures Plummet, Pointing to Steepest Decline Since 2002

* Bank of America Earnings Decline 95% After $5.3 Billion Mortgage Writedown

* Treasuries Rise Most Since 2001 as Global Share Decline Increases Demand

* Wachovia Net Falls 98% on Writedowns for Loans, Mortgage-Backed Securities

madrid mm 12:53 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Frank SINATRA -New York New York - Click here!

PAR 12:52 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Prodi in full control ?

melbourne DC 12:52 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
23:50 *DJ EU's Almunia: Rumors Of Interest Rates Cuts Not Based On reality

USA Zeus 12:50 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Times of high volatility are the best times for traders who know what they are doing and have confidence in their system and discipline. As such, highly volatile times means no time for pikers. Hit it hard and fierce (pedal to the metal) to make the big money.

Best of TimeZ!

madrid mm 12:50 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
"I want to wake up in the city that never sleeps
To find I'm king of the hill, top of the heap
It's up to you, New York, New York. "

la la lalallaaa lalala 8- )

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:50 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
wise eyes on NY...Paulson's service ticker offered right here on GV... [email protected] for details.

madrid mm 12:48 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
i have this funny feeling that all eyes are directed to NY... am i the only one ?


quito_ecuador_valdez 12:48 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

Aus Stu 12:47 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:45 GMT January 22, 2008

Oh, so very wise words mate

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:45 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I might add a word of caution. Some of the best guys I know in FX have been both right by accident (siting reasons in predictions that never happened, but their prediction panned out for other reasons) and dead wrong lately. Volitility right now + risk level = gasoline tanker pouring in a forrest on a hot dry day and you're sitting there in the middle with a glass of Coke in case of fire. Now's the time for mini lots at most. The winners in such FX conditions often lose it all later because gambling is NOT FX. In a room full of slot machines you hear constantly bells going off as winners jump with glee but the other 99% lose. Don't hype on winners, hype on your own cdiscipline.

madrid mm 12:41 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
PAR , yes

And FUKUI Strong Yen Policy is being watched closely !!!!!

VIVA Gisele !!!!

PAR 12:40 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Imho Paulson will reiterate Us strong dollar plokicy .

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
If nothing happens mkt will continue to shimmey/shake, continued random range trading, stox continue to plunge, banks continue to whine...more uncertainty will force more into safe havens - bonds, metals. Methinks 50bp cut to happen at least this week if not today, another 50bp soon at the least to = 100bp. Emergency Fed sessions aren't just to swill mineral water and coffee...something is up, but cutting 100bp at one shot is not necessarily the panic level Fed wants to display. But who's to say with a Bernanke type who is clueless & a goon drunk on power & ego for a presidink make things in USA pretty iffy in world view.

BKK Ar 12:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Disclaimer: If cable can't take out 1.95 in the next 30 minutes, then it will move to 1.96 where shorts can be tried again for moe to 1.91 imo

Aus Stu 12:27 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hmmm, very interesting what may happen if nothing happens i.e. rate cut before NY open? We shall see

Gen dk 12:16 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

BKK Ar 12:15 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
What is a bone dealer? seller of bones?
Sinced I open short gbp/yen 15 minutes ago, there are already 500 bones in my account to add to the 10,000 I picked up last week. :-)

The Netherlands Purk 12:14 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Closed 1/2 short e/u at 14485.
I will leave the other open for ride under 144. If i have the patience that is....

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
TP'd my swissy & EUR/USD at small profit...mkt way to unstable for anything other than raiding Las Vegas style.

Entebbe Idi 12:08 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
BKK Ar 11:57 GMT January 22, 2008

you are bone dealer

BKK Ar 11:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Short gbp/yen 108 and cable 1.9530 now sit back and watch the magic.

BKK Ar 11:54 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
New shorts are almost ready. Seller of gbp/yen and cable.

Bon Air VA Dennis 11:46 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Just a quick pop in to say current Fed Funds futures (Feb) indicating a 3.35 implied rate as of 6:19 ET. This is 22 bp lower than Friday's implied 3.57 rate.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Volcano firing up for a couple weeks again (it does this) in middle Ecuador, covering fertile fields with ash that produce a sizable chunk of agriculture including protein (beef, chicken, eggs). Animals die in this sort of stuff if they can't be evac'd and most farmers don't have trucks nor buck$ to afford hauling service. Hopes were Sr. volcano would sleep thru harvest but's belching right at the wrong time. This calamity isn't country-wide but covers a measurable part of the harvest & adds yet more to harvest issues. Global warming for us here involves cooling actually, hence my use of the term "climate CHANGE" because of unseasonably overcast skies resulting in more rain when it's supposed to be drier, lower temps, some root rot & leaf blights, fungus, less sunlight to ripen crops such as fruits & grains. I'm using Ec as an example...same probs exist in much of S. Am.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
climate change has lessened harvest in South America..grain, potatos, all fruits, veggies. Coffee harvest not on time...late. Food in Ecuador is 20% higher across the board for all food, meats also, milk, eggs as feed soars.

Just got a message from what I consider higher level guy of an immense Fed cut to happen, not talking book because i have no book at this point other than what you know about..have no idea if it's based on inside dope or just repeat don't take this as gospel...will poke around to find more info. Jay, John, keep us posted please.

EU theEUROqueen 11:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:20 GMT January 22, 2008
it will be a very healthy breakfast..

happy trad

sofia kaprikorn 11:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
tnx people!

BKK Ar 11:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Julian Cribb, from Sydney's University of Technology, said the oil and credit crises rattling world economies were nothing compared to the threat from emerging global food shortages.,23739,23080887-953,00.html

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
The base of FX is ultimately how well the market PERCEIVES a country's military and/or allies can defend its money. That means keeping alive to pay its debts too. Even tho USD has taken a beating the US military can protect itself & faith that USA is not going to be taken over. Also USD has to be supported ultimately, either by intervention or whatever or the world's markets will collapse. True, China, India and Russia are up and coming to diversify off of the main game USA market but that's in the cards, not as much a factor TODAY this second. So I suspect at some point USD will miraculously stabilize or recover rather than dissappear into a black hole. re-entered short swissy and long Eur/USD moments ago..pips ahead...seems to be moving fast...will pay for breakfast (for a few months!)

PAR 11:15 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
As usual BOJ very efficient in weakening the yen , about the only thing they are good at .

BKK Ar 11:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Will there be some selling volume tonight?
Here's a hint!

S&P 500

The Netherlands Purk 11:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
One more short e/u. Few to go, not tired yet.

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:10 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
John, Jay, would you post what you feel the trading volume is about now, is it light, medium or heavy? I don't have connections with this any more...trying to get a small handle on reasons for volitility and flukes as of late...could understand if trading was light and whimsical. Also the type of trading going on...whether it's mostly big transfers such as oil deals or inter-CB activity. Please post your ideas on this kind sirs.

to all: I would not follow rumors now...they are a dime a dozen and flying all around FX. Yes, some will and yes some will gain BY LUCK but luck isn't professional trading, it's just luck and luck can backfire on you real quick just as it made you gain. I would stick to either long term view or stay out if you have no view. DO NOT COPY CAT TRADE following the herd. I'm maintaining my long term Swissy short for example. I sniped a few bucks overnight longing EUR/USD and shorting Swissy but that was a Las Vegas position & I TP'd a few moments ago. It's at times fun to gamble small amounts but I sure wouldn't put much money into this mayhem right now.
Fed rumored (that stupid word again) to do something brash before NY open so if they do cut 100bp then my long term Swissy will of course benefit if SNB doesn't cut as well. SNB DOESN'T like Francs to be expensive (Tourism, watch/instrument industry & Mont Blanc would scream) so they will probably keep up with rate cuts...franc-ly I don't know what their inflation rate is this month so don't know what they'll do in relation to Fed, ECB & BOE. They inherently don't just copy cat other CBs, they calculate accurately what is good for Switzerland, that's all. Again, be careful.

I'd imagine some medium size traders (not talking the lowball level who are under 1 million $ per possie) FXers are waiting for Fed and NY open today to make their moves if any. It doesn't mean they'll follow the herd, it means they're just waiting to go on with their individual plans whatever they may be. That goes for the big volume guys also. Often they have info which no one else at hobby level will ever have which guides their activities...hence the puzzlement some have in trying to understand FX with no inside deep info. Enough, let's wait.

KL FS 11:09 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
sofia kaprikorn 11:05 GMT January 22, 2008

that is exactly I was worried about, it is all too late, damage has been done, whatever direction in favour of the rate cut will be used as an opportunity to get better entry price

BKK Ar 11:06 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Abort abort, cable just broke through this level so I'll try short at the next level for the move down.

sofia kaprikorn 11:05 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

even if the FED cuts rates - isn't it too late anyway?

the market might be officially in bear mode and these reversals are just bull traps in bear market?

KL FS 11:00 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
market is positioning for expected rate cut, watch the disappointment reaction when none is delivered...surely not a good sight

BKK Ar 10:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Finger on the trigger and ready to sell another slab of cable.
Target 1.91

Lagos FxStallion 10:51 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Or we wait for the promised traders' paradise called man's meat marketwise is another man's poison economicallywise

BKK Ar 10:50 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Kwang: Agree, it will test the 50% fib level.
Still have my shorts: My account balance is starting to look more like a phone number. LOL

cable and cad/yen

madrid mm 10:47 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
what goes up, keeps going up
what goes down, keeps going down...

well sometimes..

And now some of us are waiting for the dead cat-dog-frog-rat-goldfish-bird...bounce


BKK Ar 10:40 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Holy snow job Batman!

Lagos FxStallion 10:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
(RTTNews) - UK''s FTSE 100 Currently At 5,585.70 Down 7.50 or 0.13%For comments and feedback: contact [email protected](c) 2008, Inc. All Rights Reserved

(RTTNews) - Stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region cracked for a second day on Tuesday, with Hong Kong cracking nearly 9%, amid worries that a possible U.S. recession could lead to a worldwide economic slowdown. The weakness in global markets is likely to spread to Wall Street, where stock index futures were already down sharply. Crude prices have declined amid expectations that slower U.S. growth will weaken demand for oil.Tokyo shares closed sharply lower, with the key index finishing at its lowest since September 2005. The benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 752.89 points, the largest daily loss since August 17, 2007, or 5.7% to 12,573.05. The broader-based Topix index of all First ection issues on the Tokyo Stock Ecxchange dropped 73.79 points or 5.7 % to close at 1,219.95. The Nikkei has lost about 18% so far this year, while the Topix has fallen 17%.
Other financial stocks were also weak, with China Life Insurance falling 10.0%. The Bank of China''s shares were suspended this morning on the Shanghai Stock Exchange pending an announcement.
Seoul shares closed off their intraday lows. The benchmark index KOSPI managed to finish above 1,600 after a brief suspension of program trading. At one point the key index had plunged more than 100 points or 6.2%, the second-largest drop in its history after a 125-point fall on August 16.Eventually, the KOSPI closed down 74.54 points or 4.4% at 1,609.02, following a 3.0% drop on Monday, its lowest since last May 2007.
.Sydney shares suffered their worst one-day fall since October 1997, extending losses to twelve straight sessions. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index closed down 393.6 points or 7.1% at its intraday low 5,186.8 and the All Ordinaries lost 408.9 points or 7.3% to end at 5,222.
The S&P/ASX 200 March futures contract dropped 338 points to 5,258.The Australian dollar closed sharply lower on fears of a recession in the United States. The local unit closed at US$0.8594-0.8596, down from Monday''s close of US$0.8741-0.8744
.Consolidated Media Holdings rose 9.59% after Rupert Murdoch''s eldest son Lachlan and Australian tycoon James Packer announced a A$3.3 billion proposal to take the company private.Wellington shares closed lower, recovering from a dramatic plunge in opening trade.
An overnight slump in European markets sent the stocks tumbling as much at 4.0%, extending market losses for a record fourteenth consecutive trading session. The benchmark NZX-50 index dived 141 points in the first 30 minutes of trading to 3506, its lowest level since September 2006. Eventually, the key index closed down 39.77 points or 1.09% at 3,607.13 and the broader-based NZX All Capital index slipped 11.07 points or 1.13% to end at 976.95.

.Hong Kong''s Hang Seng index closed down 2,061.23 points or 8.65% at 21,757.63.Singapore''s Straits Times Index closed down 50.60 points or 1.7% at 2,866.5.
Indonesia''s Jakarta composite index closed down 191.36 points or 7.7 at 2,229.82.
Malaysia''s Kuala Lumpur Composite Index closed down 54.12 points or 3.8% at 1,354.48.
Taiwan''s weighted index closed down 528.24 points or 6.5% at 7,581.96.

India''s Sensex shed 875 points to end at 16,729 and the S&P CNX Nifty dropped 309 points to 4,899.For comments and feedback: contact [email protected](c) 2008, Inc. All Rights Reserved

PAR 10:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Lower interest rates is like drug addiction, you always need more to feel an effect .

Paris Hilton 10:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Lagos FxStallion 10:25 GMT January 22, 2008
FTSE is up +8.00

Lagos FxStallion 10:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Uk FTSE down, Germany's DAX iNDEX DOWN, French CAC Index down..and Down Jones likely to follow suit at the close of trading today

GENEVA DS 10:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
thanks ZEUS ! that is what we need in this forum.... some visionaries... wrong or right is not so important as we have to adopt daily.... but hey.... thanks lots...

SG Harry 10:22 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Eurjpy: short here at 15420 with sl at 15450

38.2 pct retracement is at 15425ish from the 157.76-15210 move

Objective: 153.50

May work especially given that eurusd is resisted at 1.4480

Cheers and gl

GENEVA DS 10:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
still have this famous feeling that Interest rates will fall on GLOBAL Basis to ZERO very quick... The Japan model will be duplicated now, after 20 years of failure there.... which currencies could profit the most form such an outcome is your guess.... but I guess it will not be the EURO or the GBP.... good luck to you all and thanks for all your contributions...

USA Zeus 10:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
GENEVA DS 09:59 GMT January 22, 2008
Thanks for the kind words DS. Enjoy your posts the same.
Well, I still favor EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower….much lower. As for MT targets, I’d favor 1.4000-1.3777 and 1.90-1.8777 respectively. The strong dollar policy will continue one way or another.

Many USD’s went venturing into emerging markets over the last while in search of giant outsized returns or simply because they were scared into thinking the USD was supposed to collapse so investors made hasty decisions at the advice of some TV or newspaper personality.

While those “emerging” markets are likely to see huge gains going forward, (My favorites are Russia and Brazil) what risks people say they accept when staring at fantasy returns vs actually realize once the two way sword swings are very different. Most simply can’t handle investments in countries whose daily volatility is 10% or more. Thus, the USD’s go racing back to where they came from.

Either way we are in a trader’s paradise for the foreseeable future with volatility in abundance.

All IMVHO of course. Can be wrong just like the next.
Wish you and others the very best during these historic times (opportunities)!


lagos FxStallion 10:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Black Swan Effect:An event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and that would be extremely difficult to predict. This term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor and former Wall Street trader.

Investopedia Says... Black swan events are typically random and unexpected. For example, the previously successful hedge fund Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) was driven into the ground as a result of the ripple effect caused by the Russian government's debt default. The Russian government's default represents a black swan event because none of LTCM's computer models could have predicted this event and its subsequent effects.

The Netherlands Purk 10:15 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Shorty e/u here. Position trade.... start small end small....
Lets see where we end up today.

PAR 10:02 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
What about free markets. Socialise losses , privatise profits .

GENEVA DS 09:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hi zeus.... really like your comments, thanks for contributing... do you have any med term targets EURUSD and GBPUSD... gl gt

madrid mm 09:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

USA Zeus 09:55 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
The Black Swan grows and grows from what they initially called a “small and isolated subprime blip” into a full scale global meltdown.

The US subprime market vaporizing last summer has become the butterfly effect in the global storm. Can't blame subprime homebuyers in Merced California as the culprit for global markets losing $ trillions (approx $5 trios thus far) but those in the hot seat who wrecked themselves and investors do so out of a convenient opportunity to deflect accountability and blame an old media if those who could not afford homes, but were offered fat margin laced potentially lucrative paper from a few loan sharks, have actually taken down the global powers. The blame game lives on. Everyone is a victim.

VAR, Monte Carlo simulations, risk models all failed again a decade after the last batch of geniuses i.e. LTCM et al.
Some things never change (or do they?) LOL

USA Zeus 10:08 GMT August 9, 2007
Subprime meltdown = Black Swan

USA Zeus 21:42 GMT July 26, 2007
Black swans are swimming?

USA Zeus 01:33 GMT July 11, 2007
Just feels like that black swan will show itself soon.

USA Zeus 13:31 GMT June 20, 2007
Looks like the FX market is due for a black swan.

PAR 09:53 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Euro still extremely overvalued against yen and yuan , and that is disturbing trade balances . As shown this morning yen and yuan are not freely traded currencies .

Gen dk 09:38 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

KL FS 09:35 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
adding to that, now it is like they are forced to do so, they are not in control anymore, if they dont deliver, i cant imagine how much more damage can be done not only to the market but also to their credibility, they are in lose-lose situation even if they deliver, not a pretty thing

Auckland Trotter 09:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm 09:27 GMT January 22, 2008
From my monthly charts USD/YPY was 105 around 04/03/2005.

KL FS 09:32 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
PAR, I just think that Fed knows this and so that would be very naive for them to reveal such a plan so openly and being toyed around, it has been proven counterproductive anyway ever since Bernanke mentioned the 50bp cut, it was just plain stupid

Canada BR 09:30 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
would anyone please tell me when was the last time usd/yen was @ 105 ?

April 2005

madrid mm 09:27 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
would anyone please tell me when was the last time usd/yen was @ 105 ?

My charts do not go that far.

thx in advance.

PAR 09:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL / Agree rate cut and stimilus package have only long term impact, but the elections are in november .

madrid mm 09:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
The Gisele effect seems to work ....For the time being ..


Maribor, ok but their P&L and balance sheet still need to be in YEN


Auckland Trotter 09:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Will now see for the EUR/USD if around 1.4461, the 23.6% fib from the 30 min chart is the retraction limit, and we will see more down.

KL FS 09:19 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
i am back guys, let's all keep it simple, what's the chance of rate cut reversing this damage done? it might be able to provide temporary equity and carry bounce only to be sold off later...instead of betting in the direction of the rumour,which is just a rumour, i would prefer waiting for nice level to do contra should such event occurs

PAR 09:18 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Persistent rumors FED will cut by 100 bp toady, probably before opening of NYSE . May be coordinated cut with BOE and ECB .

Maribor 09:16 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
MM, typically exporter takes credit in currency in which he gets paid => credit in USD for producing and selling cars in USA.

Paris Van Java Kwang 09:14 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
The Cable was go up to 1.9580 and then down trend to 1.9180... may be

The Netherlands Purk 09:12 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY: 107,33 on the menu.

madrid mm 09:12 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
i think this lvl usd/yen must be hurting the Japanese exporters fwiw

Imagine a toyata selling for 20.000 US and
that 1usd = 115 Yen = 2.300.000 yen
that 1usd = 105 Yen = 2.100.000 yen

per car.... Even with hedging .....


Syd 09:11 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
The U.K.'s FTSE 100 stock index pushed higher Tuesday, reversing earlier hefty losses, thanks to a cocktail of short covering and bargain hunting. "It's been a big overshoot by the market. Technically there's probably some value in this market," said one equity trader based in London.

Maribor 09:01 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Well, maybe I shall add some real world effects to my theories - like STOP hunting(esp. during times of low liquidity). After all, marketmakers are not there to give traders money, but to be paid for their services...that may remove disparities between theory and practise...

melbourne DC 08:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
my wild guess ... eurgbp sell stops triggered caused gbpusd to jump, causing $mjr to cover short.
or perhaps some talk of coordinate cut cause equities to cover. but then eu n ecb officials comments last hour surely does not lend credence to that. (which is eur positive)

beware : above just unexamined observation as i was doing something else.

madrid mm 08:55 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
yes they did.

The important word in my post was "rumor" !!


Gen dk 08:55 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

melbourne DC 08:53 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm 08:44 GMT January 22, 2008
didn't BoJ just finish meeting 6 hours ago?

The Netherlands Purk 08:49 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Targets on cable longs all hit at 195.
Special thanks to Paris IB who made me remove my s/l.
Maybe i did learn something there...
Just try to remember people, do not long/short in the middle of a range or short at the bottom or long at the end. And certainly do not look an elephant in the a...

madrid mm 08:48 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

S&P 500

blbrg @ 3.15ET

madrid mm 08:44 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
templar, with the markets so negative at the moment, the market is ripe for rumors.... the lattest one i have heard is the the BOJ will meet soon to cut rates....

Again this is rumors only, and the market feed itself on rumor ...and not humor

Malaysia puteraku73 08:43 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Im going to have a little break... going out for dinner (+8 GMT) with my wife and kids...

London Templar 08:38 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Anyone know what spurred that spike in USDJPY to 106.50??

Paris Hilton 08:38 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
rate cut confirmed? all currency up more than 50 pips.

BA mades 08:37 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter: for EU i do have S1 daily at 1.4353 and S2 weekly at 1.4366 (the last low) and the broker's time is GMT. I find GMT charts more accurate, due to London being GMT aswell.

Syd 08:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: 50% Chance That Fed Cuts 50bp Tue - Commerzbank
Although the next FOMC meeting is little over a week away, discussions on a rate cut being brought forward will be rampant Tuesday, says Commerzbank. With global stock markets tumbling, significant monetary easing even before the US markets open for trade cannot be ruled out, says the bank. If that is to happen it will probably come between 1200 GMT and 1300 GMT and Commerzbank sees a 50% chance that the Fed will try and stabilize the stock markets with a rate cut

bilbao PEDRO 08:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

Auckland Trotter 08:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter 08:25 GMT January 22, 2008
Should add that 1.4412 on the 5 min chart is interesting for now as a S& R level.

madrid mm 08:31 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
RED is the color of the day again today...!?!?!?!?!

Malaysia puteraku73 08:30 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Eur/jpy heading 155.00???

Maribor 08:27 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hm, reaction on cable does not look like shorters dream-100 pips up in 25 min.

Auckland Trotter 08:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
For the EUR/USD I have a possible retraction of the recent down with the opening of the EUR market from:

S2 weekly pivot – 1.4376
S1 daily pivot – 1.4377

Among other indicators.

Still see a general longer down pressure – from the daily chart:

SMA(105) – 1.4356
I2 daily pivot – 1.4358
38.2% fib on daily chart – 1.4352

UK market still to come – could see the price settle in a range.

We shall see.

PAR 08:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Imho one of causes of todays problems is the december manipulation of the Libor rate by the world central banks . By artificially bringing down Libor the central banks gave a false sense of safety to the market while the actual problems were getting bigger. Free market High Libor indicated the problems. Its like taking painkillers to cure a cancer .

Amman wfakhoury 08:21 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:13 GMT January 22, 2008
20 spicy pips if we short gbp.usd @19368 now
sell another twice at 19415

Syd 08:14 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Forex Mkt On Watch For Early Fed Action -Trader
0812 GMT [Dow Jones] Forex markets will be on the watch for a Fed rate cut Tuesday if stocks continue to tumble during the morning session, says a UK bank trader. Such talk has already been circulating in Asia, and gave the carry trades a brief uptick. The futures market is currently looking for the DJIA to open around 5% lower, while the Fed is expected to cut rates by 50 bps at the end of January.

Amman wfakhoury 08:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
20 spicy pips if we short gbp.usd @19368 now

Maribor 08:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Well, as yesterday GBPUSD behavior was according to my theories, today action make doubtful GBPUSD fall from 2,116 is over. I am out of the market.

madrid mm 08:07 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter actually tehy will ask you for the female traders


Auckland Trotter 08:06 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
madrid mm 07:59 GMT January 22, 2008
Strange they didn’t ask me. But then I guess my agent puts too many stringent conditions on my public appearances.

madrid mm 07:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Flash Unofficial -- Financial officials from around the world have asked Gisele the top model to appear in a bikini in order to boost moral to the traders around the world. She will appear on the Bahamas Stock Exchange at 10am local time.
Fukui will be there in the first row. TBC


St. Annaland Bob 07:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

and that's the last post for today (good news for some) ... the most important barrier for long term traders who look clear trending signals is with XAU/JPY @ 100K ... fwiw

St. Annaland Bob 07:55 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

EUR/SEK: gravity rule applies for 92500 during 2008 ... from where or starting when, I have no idea ... but, 95400 made me to take the first short for this round ... good, happy and safe trades!

St. Annaland Bob 07:45 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
GOLD going down $70 and news providers talk about 2 weeks low ... personally, Japan's Fukui saying strong JPY is behind NIKKEI going down may suggest that EUR/JPY above ¥180 will become ECB interest ... what a crazy world, but still very beautiful ;)

Syd 07:38 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Sensex Off Lows On Value Buying; Now Dn 4.8%

Control Tower Bob Greifeld 07:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 07:23 GMT January 22, 2008

ziczac son? You do need a tictac. You are still 'hedged' for 20 spicy ones at 154.75 from 155.20 buy point as far as this house is concerned.-

Amman wfakhoury 07:34 GMT January 21, 2008
Vail MC 07:29 GMT January 21, 2008
So you are flat with a 45 pip losing trade?
correct..i have now to wait till reach above 15520..then i will exit the buy at 15520...then add another one sell.
then exit both sell at winning level.

Amman wfakhoury 07:29 GMT January 21, 2008
Vail MC 07:25 GMT January 21, 2008
AMMAN, what does hedge mean? You sold and now cant lose if it goes down?

====to stop the position frm loosing and winning
Amman wfakhoury 07:23 GMT January 21, 2008

Amman wfakhoury 07:13 GMT January 21, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 06:28 GMT January 21, 2008
20 spicy pips if we buy eur.jpy now at 155.20

hedged at 154.75

exit the buy position when it reach above 155.20

Syd 07:35 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Bank Indonesia Governor: Central Bank Is In The Market

madrid mm 07:34 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Don t forget that we have the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, 23-27 January 2008, in Davos, Switzerland this week...

Maybe some comments might come out of it fwiw...

Expect the unexpected.....

HK [email protected] 07:32 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
BKK Ar 02:15 GMT January 22, 2008
Ok, here is the big call for this week: DON'T BE SHORT DOLLARS!!!

Nice idea!!! maybe not too many USD may be floating around after this stock mkt carnage and the subprime carnage!!!

PAR 07:28 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Fukui does not understand the meaning of "strong ". Alltime low on USDJPY is 78,50 and altime low on EURJPY is 88 . So blaming NIkkei fall on strong yen makes no economic sense . Fukui should look at his own stupidity of putting interest rates at zero causing massive capital outflows out of Japan .

Amman wfakhoury 07:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
sell if breaks level 152.60 tp 151.80-150.50
buy if breaks level 153.10 tp 153.90-154.30

break should be confirmed by closing 3 bars in same direction
5mins chart.
movement in ziczac pattern.

PAR 07:19 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
While US fiscal stimulus package and gigantic bank bad debt write down increase the Us budget deficit, will it work ?

Syd 07:18 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
DJ BOJ Fukui: Strong Yen Behind Nikkei Fall

madrid mm 07:06 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
have a gr8 day.

Take full responsability and never blame the market . 8-)

yesterday was supposed to be the most depressing day of the year...

So today should be better

Don t worry , be happy !!!


KL FS 07:05 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
td, if they can send HSI above 24k and eurjpy above 155.70 by Friday then i am wrong, very unlikely

madrid mm 07:01 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
* Market rumours (again) of emergency 50bps Fed cut tonight, followed by another 50 at Jan 29-30 FOMC, to 3.25%

* BoJ keeps rates unchanged by unanimous 9-0 vote. BoJ says Japan economy is weaker than forecast in October. Growth slowing due to housing slump, assessment unchanged.

* MoF Fukushiro Nukaga says Not thinking of large-scale FX intervention, declines to comment on FX market moves, which are based on various factors. Japan should not be swayed by daily stock moves. Sees Japan economy growing 2% in 2008/09.

* Econs Prof Hiroko Ota says no need for government measures to boost Japan economy.

* WSJ: Banks in the UK, after spending the past 6 months coping with the repercussions of the US housing bust, are facing a new challenge: navigating a looming housing crunch at home.

* Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker says cannot discount risk of recession in US now entirely. If growth were to weaken further in eurozone finmins have range of tools. Best response to FX situation is a global one.

* French Finmin Christie Lagarde believes ECB should take into account any marked weakening of economy in its monetary policy.

* SNB Thomas Jordan, in SF1, says SNB has no need to change its monetary policy for now, though risks have increased. Crisis is not over yet.

* Canadian Finmin spokesman says Canadian equity markets not immune to global pressures. Watching situation closely.

* When will the current global stocks markets, Cross/JPY "meltdown" by "frozen" and reversed? That is the question on everyone mind as stock markets, despite US away, continue to push lower, registering >4-8% fall, and with Dow futures -500pts.

* FX markets followed suit, with USD/JPY falling to fresh 2yr 8-m lows 105.61, EUR/JPY 5-m low 152.33, GBP/JPY 1-yr 10-m lows 204.94, AUD/JPY to 5-m lows 90.55, NZD/JPY to 4-m lows 78.22, and in the process pushing EUR through 1.44 trigger to 1-m lows 1.4390, AUD to 1-m lows 0.8561, Kiwi to 3-m lows 0.7401, while Cable extended losses to 10-m lows of 1.9372 after break of 1.94 triggers on WSJ article that UK banks facing UK housing storm at home. EUR/GBP up on that, spiking to 0.7447 from 0.7427-30.

USD/JPY rising back up to 106.17-20 on back of US investment house, UK clearer buying, as India stocks rebound off worst level, but other Asian stocks still under pressure. USD/JPY good options, talks semi-official bids, Asian, China, Taiwan at 105.50, with interesting MOF Nukaga "no large scale FX action comments, possibly hinting that MoF is watching 105.

Cross/JPY recovery from lows, focus now on US stock tonight, given the selloff in futures, if rebound, Cross/JPY up. EUR/USD back up at 1.4433-35, GBP 1.9390-95, AUD at 0.8590, could see Asian sovereign, China names buying on dips.

Nikkei -5.65% or -752.89pts at 12,573.05, largest 1-day fall since Sept 11. JGBs firmer on stock losses, 10-yr yield -0.050% at 1.315%.

Crude heavy, $88.15, -$2.42/ Gold below $860, at $858.70/860.50.

singapore td 06:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL FS, where do you suggest stop loss level then if my friend tried short eurjpy 153.10 and HSI 22471 assuming you are right?

KL FS 06:53 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
in other words, it would be picking-bottoms game where the bottom is nowhere in sight...I also doubt very much about Fed's emergency cut, why do it now if they can wait till next week, damage has been done anyway, i'll let them prove me wrong

good luck and good trades to all

KL FS 06:46 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
i think those expecting jpy pairs bounce and thus equities could be very disappointed, at most you have is 0.5%-1% bounce from whatever low we have for today's close, back in NY

madrid mm 06:38 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
sell sell sell sell sell sell
buy buy buy buy buy buy
bye bye bye bye


I am not sure if this is true but, from one commentator this am in my inbox
"This situation has created the Dow futures to sell off 500 points while the S&P Futures are down 60 points and the NASDAQ Futures are down 80 points. This indicates we will have a major market sell off Tuesday morning."

Interesting day ahead of us....

madrid mm 06:32 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
hello and GM FX Jedi

FEAR and GREED ladies and gentlemen, FEAR and GREED ....This is what it is all about


“In the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.” Albert Einstein

I am not confused so much

Syd 06:32 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
ECB Stark: Some Mkts Overshooting; Should Avoid Exaggeration

USA BAY 06:29 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

Thanks Sifu, shall pay attention to the levels mentioned. Good trades to you.

Blore RKG 06:27 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

The rumors i posted was a forward from my sing desk. In lighter vein, the joke about rumors that is doing rounds in BB chat rooms is " Elvis Presley sighted in Singapore"..

For india index watchers, 15240 is the next support - below that, its a bloodbath - next level to watch will be 13740.

Hong Kong Ahe 06:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 05:57 GMT - Hi Bay, GBPJPY 204.60 to 205.20/30 is good level to buy target 209.50/60 (breaking 210 will look for higher level target of 50% correction from 230 but short term timing is not yet ready). If breaking the strong support of 204.50. It may test lower range of 201 - 205. Stop must be placed around this level. EURJPY is hard for me techically as it is highly manipulated. AUDJPY 90.50 is short-term bottom. Anyway, take the time frame I mentioned below.
BOJ kept rates unchanged at 0.5% is just noted. Watch Gold is rising or not after this and correction is taken accordingly. GLGT.

bilbao PEDRO 06:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
you serious....If Citi files....that's it for all the bulls ....i love it...

Blore RKG 06:08 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

Citigroup filing for bankruptcy
Abu dhabi investor pulling out of Citi cash infusion
Fed to cut rates tonight
central banks stepping in and intervening in the stock market
Soc Gen having 10bio USD losses
Bank of China announcment later on regarding their subprime losses

Jay Mumbai 06:04 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hi BC... Nice to see you back in the forum. Have a Great Trading Year.

Syd 05:58 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 05:56 thanks you very much for that

USA BAY 05:57 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong AHE,

Hi Sifu,

Could you kindly give the levels for gbp/jpy to long and also for eur/jpy and aud/jpy, if you have the time. As always your inputs are greatly appreciated. Thanks a lot

Hong Kong Ahe 05:56 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Syd 05:53 GMT Hi Syd, yes. But AUDJPY may hold a bit during US morning session or around 94.20. GLGT

Syd 05:54 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Malaysian pension fund Employees' Provident Fund Tuesday said the current weakness in the stock market represents an opportunity to accumulate shares.

"EPF is a long-term local market player, so definitely right now is a good opportunity," said Chief Executive Azlan Zainol.

EPF is one of the country's biggest institutional investors.

Syd 05:53 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 05:51 does that also apply to aud/yen thx

Hong Kong Ahe 05:51 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 05:41 GMT - Hi Bay, YEN will be weaken from the time I post till US Morning session closing. Thus, if it is close to today low, buy GBPJPY. GLGT.

KL FS 05:49 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 05:41 GMT January 22, 2008

realistically 150 is enough for today, but we will never know
let's focus on equity markets for a while, it is the one that determines direction at the moment

Malaysia puteraku73 05:48 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 05:46 GMT January 22, 2008

Any good entry for eur/jpy??

KL FS 05:46 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 05:41 GMT January 22, 2008

everything is possible friend, when fear takes control

Syd 05:46 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Some investors have been casting a cautious eye over S&P/ASX 200's 7.1% fall and taking the opportunity to make bargain purchases to boost long-term portfolio positions. "We're accumulating cautiously; just nibbling," says Rob Patterson, a fund manager at Argo Investments in Adelaide. "We're pretty long term. It's a question of building the portfolio at the right time and at the right prices," says Patterson, who helps manages A$3.8 billion in equities; "the important thing is to have the cash to nibble. dow

Malaysia puteraku73 05:41 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 05:39 GMT January 22, 2008
GENEVA DS 05:33 GMT January 22, 2008

immediate target eurjpy 147-148 but 140-141 is better


Can we see that figure today?

USA BAY 05:41 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

Any views on gbp/jpy?? TIA

Makassar Alimin 05:41 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
i think sensex's recovery would not last, it will be sold off again later towards the close

KL FS 05:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
GENEVA DS 05:33 GMT January 22, 2008

immediate target eurjpy 147-148 but 140-141 is better

Syd 05:37 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
0532 GMT [Dow Jones] Sensex recovers after market reopens following 60-minute initial trading halt, now down 3.4% at 17000.85 on possible buying from state-owned insurance funds.

USA Zeus 05:35 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Interesting though. Before, many said the USA economy was not important nor influential to their markets/economy any longer blah blah etc only to now blame the US (again) for their own market meltdown. However, at this juncture markets are down more elsewhere (many significantly more so) and with interest rates expected lower buy the FOMC in a hasty way, the USD strengthens. Flight to quality tests still result in a run the USD hills and late stage yen gets returned.

Some things never change (or do they).

Happy Trades to all as the volatility theme is here to stay for a while.

Hyderabad Srini 05:34 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Sensex now down 8%..

Syd 05:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Sensex Recovers, Down 3.4%; HDFC Bank Leads

GENEVA DS 05:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
KL FS 04:49 GMT January 22, 2008

thanks for your contribution my friend, do you have any new particular targets for DJ, EURJPY and USDJPY, how low will we go after you ? gl

Syd 05:31 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Sensex Extends Recovery; Down 3.1% After Earlier 9.8% Fall

Makassar Alimin 05:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
expecting the worst, short eurjpy 152.88, stop above today's high

Vail MC 05:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I just grabbed it from Bloomberg

Atlanta GA 05:18 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Vail, TY that sounds better, but if you look at the chart under tools, live rates various that's what it shows.

Vail MC 05:14 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Atlanta, 5578.20 -5.48% on 1/21

Atlanta GA 05:11 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Can anyone tell me if the FTSE 100 Indx is correct at -2.50? It shows -5563.75, I saw it on the FX data live rates? TIA

NY Rob 05:04 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
set up for a black Tuesday later on once US opens, get ready

KL FS 04:49 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
i think in a lot of markets driven by jpy carry trades before, we have seen the highs for many many months to come, HSI won't see above 26k, DJI won't see 13k, same for jpy carry eurjpy would be questionable to see above 163 again, we are shifting range now,
honeymoon is over.....

St. Annaland Bob 04:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

today's south China morning post suggests that Bank of China is about to write down too ... it's not over till it's over ;)

Hyderabad Srini 04:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Indian Stock Markets hit Lower Circuit 10% in just few seconds of opening and trading halted for 1 hour..

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:31 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
yes Tokyo and volitility begets bit losses to 98.5% of FXers.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:30 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
BTW I was on target with Fed raising interest so much so fast...others here warned of this as well. Between a stupid Fed and a stupid Bush spending billions on an unwinnable war instead of spending billions of upgrading the US as a country itself, it's no wonder USA has its woes. It's a classic case of being "flat ate up with a cronic case of the dumbazz" as an old negro man used to say of Washington I once knew when I lived in the deep south. Some of this yelp is hype, some isn't. We don't know what the proportions are until the dust settles. I give it into early summer before market stabilizes at the soonest. Remember also economy is the only reason war is fought. Someone's always tring to get someone else's assets and someone always it the arms factories or whomever. The shakier the world econ gets the more war venues you'll see spring up out of nowhere. This stuff in the Mid East is nothing compared to what it can get to. And there are only so many "dogooder" troops to go around...meaning at some point people will have to back off and jsut be civil or fight their own wars without UN'S AID or Washington's military interventions.

tokyo ginko 04:29 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
uncertainty (volatility) begets opportunity

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:16 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hi gents. I've warned enough about trading in these unstable waters so I won't do it again. I only hope there weren't too many positioned on the wrong side today...200 pip surprise plunges aren't anything but awful. GV's write ups however sort of predicted this so hopefully no one traded heavy and hopefully by luck only some made it thru with TP's instead of SL's. I would not attempt to trade FX, equities or commods at all until things stabilize, if they even do this year. I fear a world wide shimmey starting that can make 9-11 look like child's play. Let's hope my fears are not going to come to pass. Anyway, for those of you who insist on trading, GL, GT amigos. Personally I feel it's time everyone just size up their portfolios and stay put and DO NOT gamble, casino FX is cruel. If you have inside info, and you think it's reliable, that's another matter, kindly share it here please.


dc CB 04:02 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Rumors aside, are the Fed, Treasury, and the Bush Administration going to "let" the cash market in stox open down in the morning with a 500 point or larger gap in the Dow, a 60+ point gap in the SnP? I think if we get an open like that we could see the first ever quadruple digit down day.

Syd 03:37 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Aussie Sharemarket Selling Overdone -CommSec
Commonwealth Securities says valuations on the Australian sharemarket cheapest in almost 17 years. "Just like August last year, selling on our sharemarket has been overdone - a clear case of the heart ruling the head," says chief economist Craig James. Notes confirmation today of the strength in consumer spending, with car sales up 1.1% in December. Adds similarities with 1982 when the sharemarket last fell for 12 consecutive days, but says the two periods can't be further apart on other grounds. "In 1982 Australia was slipping into the worst recession since the Great Depression, whereas now our economy is booming," he says.

Syd 03:32 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

BOJ Board Vote Unanimous For 2nd Straight Mtg To Keep Policy Steady

philadelphia caba 03:29 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
FX Market Settles, But Rumour-Mill In Overdrive
The rumour-mill in Asia has been more active than usual today. Among the rumours making the rounds is the usual "emergency Fed meeting tonight", but this one has them easing rates 75 BPS instead of 50 BPS. There has also been a rumour saying that the Fed will be joined by the BOJ and Bank of Canada who have scheduled meetings today. The Bank of Canada has been widely tipped to be cutting 25 BPS, but the latest rumour has them cutting 50 BPS. Another rumour making the rounds is that one of the sovereign wealth funds involved in the Citigroup bailout is considering pulling out.
An article in the UK Times quotes a number of analysts as saying that the next few weeks might be "horrible" for the market. There are fears that Chinese banks will have to make large write-downs related to the US sub-prime crisis and the credit crunch could intensify after Fitch downgraded insurance broker Ambac. Meanwhile George Soros has warned that the current situation was "much more serious than any financial crisis since the end of the war." (thmsn)

Syd 03:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Australian 2007 economic growth forecast raised to 4.1 pct - Dun & Bradstreet
SYDNEY (Thomson Financial) - Business information provider Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) said Tuesday it has raised its 2007 economic growth forecast for Australia to 4.1 percent from 3.9 percent due to robust household spending, government investment and solid growth in imports and exports during the year. D&B said in its Global Economic & Risk Outlook Report that the faster rate of growth will ensure the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains vigilant about inflationary pressures, making another rate hike a possibility.

The RBA has raised rates by a cumulative 50 basis points since August and some economists believe the bank could tighten again when it meets in February if fourth quarter underlying inflation, due to be released on Wednesday, exceeds the bank's target range of 2-3 percent as expected.

Malaysia puteraku73 03:02 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Eur/jpy going up???

USA Zeus 02:45 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:02 GMT January 14, 2008
Limits filled 913.70 on last gold surge. Load on rallies then watch the bubble pop.

USA Zeus 17:31 GMT January 11, 2008
Keep sell gold on rally mode for the Midas touch and pending drop.

USA Zeus 17:36 GMT January 10, 2008
Added core short gold 896.00

USA Zeus 17:24 GMT January 10, 2008
Building core short gold now SAR from core long.
Added short 893.20

USA Zeus 17:23 GMT January 10, 2008
Hit it -Short Comex gold 892.20

USA Zeus 16:14 GMT January 10, 2008
Short COMEX gold 886.50

USA Zeus 05:10 GMT January 10, 2008
Looks more and more like Goldman got it right but timing was off.
Gold will drop.

Posted all necessary entries and views for further scrutiny and just covered the first 1/2 @ 867.20.

Will hold 913.70 and 896.00 @ b/e for now.

Alright- Happy Super Tuesday!

tokyo ginko 02:45 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
eur/usd to test 1.4320 levels

if 1.4320 breaks..let it ride GT all

shanghai bc 02:34 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Alaska Moon 02:25 GMT January 22, 2008

Good morning..All the best..

Makassar Alimin 02:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
BKK Ar 02:23 GMT January 22, 2008

yes, and when we are talking about pension funds in the market.....this is just bad, good portion is gone within short period

Alaska Moon 02:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
shanghai bc 02:23 GMT January 22
Thanks, BC.....I hope you are well !! It's good to see you on here.....

Syd 02:24 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Short and Sweet and to the point many thanks :-))

BKK Ar 02:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I'm so tired of seeing financial institutions like CBA trying to play down fears and talk up investor confidence in the eye of the storm. They are only doing it because they fear to lose their investors. Super funds in Australia are bleeding, and they try and put a positive spin on it.

shanghai bc 02:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Syd 01:05 GMT January 22, 2008

Good morning..Danger and opportunity always go together..BHP and Gold will soon be a good bargain of the year..Good trades..

austin mw 02:22 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I am looking for a ECB rate cut sooner than later. Trichet can continue to beat the drum on inflation while others tell another story. He did lower rates back in 2001 and inflation was running 3%. Wage pressures or not, ECB will have to cut aggressively or face a severe downturn in 2nd half of 2008.

BKK Ar 02:18 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
well if your hold any, now would be a good time to exit the market.
If the Dow's 11500 level gets hit, it may not hold and then its panic stations to 10,000

Syd 02:16 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Aussie 4Q Core CPI Still Crucial For RBA
Despite equity market slump, RBA likely still to hike rates in February if 4Q core CPI data tomorrow shows 0.8% rise or greater, says Stephen Walters, chief economist at JPMorgan. Says no doubt it's a bad day on the stock market, but inflation is separate problem; though certainty will wane if stock prices keep going south. Says there's lot of water yet to pass under the bridge before Feb. RBA policy meeting with U.S. payrolls data and the FOMC meeting coming up; but for now, RBA has signaled inflation is major blip on its radar still.

BKK Ar 02:15 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Ok, here is the big call for this week: DON'T BE SHORT DOLLARS!!!

KL FS 02:14 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
BKK AR 02:11 GMT January 22, 2008

in other words, keep shorting equities because Soros knows what he is talking about

Syd 02:14 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
NZ shares down but still paring early losses as many blue chips were oversold, says ABN AMRO Craig adviser Jennifer Moreton. Stocks like Fletcher Building (FBU.NZ), now down 1.4% at NZ$9.86, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH.NZ) +2.2% to NZ$3.22, Infratil (IFT.NZ), down 5.9% at NZ$2.40, catching attention of bargain hunters after falling sharply earlier in day. Says slide entirely driven by fears related to overseas markets as "nothing has changed for underlying companies." dj

cheers Harry

SG Harry 02:13 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Syd 02:03 GMT January 22, 2008

Thanks for the info/clarification mate.

BKK AR 02:11 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

Cut and pasted from the Courier Mail New this morning:

Billionaire investor George Soros said the world was facing the worst financial crisis since World War II and the US was threatened with recession.
Mr Soros told the Austrian daily Standard: "The situation is much more serious than any other financial crisis since the end of World War II."

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 02:05 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Like Clockwork the markets move, be set for a "correction" of minor magnitude and then a further decline.....US$ and US equities are comin round the mountain and when she comes she comes hard.. :)

Enjoy the trading!

KL FS 02:03 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Hangseng is in crash mode and still going :)

Syd 02:03 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD pushing higher on rebound in Asian equities, especially Nikkei, up now around 300 points from today's low, Deutsche Bank FX strategist John Horner says. Notes equity markets "very oversold" increasing risk of "quite considerable" squeeze higher in high-yielding AUD ahead of 4Q CPI Wednesday. Pair has fallen long way since high of 0.8821 early yesterday; AUD/USD last 0.8614 from session low of 0.8569 dow

Syd 01:59 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
JPY crosses like EUR/JPY rising as Japan stocks bouncing back, says trader at Tokyo bank; "the speed of the recent falls (in crosses) was very fast, so many players bought them back quickly once stocks showed signs of picking up."

Syd 01:56 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Market interest rates compiled by Credit Suisse now appear to imply there's around 50% chance BOJ will cut rates 25 bps next 12 months:

SG Harry 01:50 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Re BoJ meeting today: seems like they are pricing in a 60pct chance for a rate cut.....probably explains the nikkei and eurjpy mmoves in the last hour.

USA Zeus 01:47 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 21:47 GMT July 7, 2006
Ever hear of the superbowl indicator? I swear it works- LOL!

Looks like the market is voting early for a New England Patriots undefeated blowout.

Toronto tn 01:47 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Tallinn viies 00:00 GMT January 22, 2008
1,4355 is enough for this month (...) target for year still at 1,6000

1.3725 should be seen before the uptend resumes.

Syd 01:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Gerry Harvey, chairman of Australia's largest furniture and electrical retailer, Harvey Norman Ltd. (HVN.AU), said consumer sentiment remains "very strong" despite the recent rout in the sharemarket and expectations of another interest-rate rise.

"I think it's being tested a little bit at the moment for the people who read the stockmarket, but if you're like an awful lot of Australians - they take no notice of what's happening to the stockmarket," Harvey told Dow Jones Newswires. "The positives are too strong, employment numbers have never been higher, people's income levels have never been higher, tax cuts are coming in - it's very difficult to get staff to work for you in an awful lot of areas," Harvey said.

"When people have got that much money, full employment - it has to change quite dramatically for things to be affected," he added.

Earlier, the retailer said second-quarter sales - which included the key pre-Christmas trading period - rose 13.1% to A$1.65 billion for the three months to Dec. 31, 2007 from a year earlier.
UBS was particularly bullish, tipping like-for-like growth of 10%. Harvey said technology and entertainment items such as flat-panel televisions, LCD televisions, digital cameras, computers, games consoles were again the top sellers.

Price deflation thanks to the strength of the Australian dollar and advances in technology have helped drive the boom, and Harvey says there's no sign of this abating.

Syd 01:36 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
:Harvey Norman 2Q Sales +13%; Sentiment Still Strong

Syd 01:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Sell off Nikkei sell off slows on short-covering as players place buy orders with index reaching remarkably cheap level, says Japanese fund manager.

Syd 01:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Citibank China: Subprime Has No Impact On China Expansion dj

Syd 01:10 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
There is a great likelyhood of the FED giving the market something to day

Malaysia puteraku73 01:09 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 01:05 GMT January 22, 2008
Malaysia puteraku73,

The reason for gbp/jpy weakness is the problem with sterling weakness coupled with the risk aversion and for aud/jpy mainly due to comodity.


Maybe i was wrong... :)

USA BAY 01:05 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73,

The reason for gbp/jpy weakness is the problem with sterling weakness coupled with the risk aversion and for aud/jpy mainly due to comodity.

Syd 01:05 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
shanghai bc 01:00 good day , what is your view on the negative markets at present and Gold? appreciate your opinion

US SW 01:04 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Thanks RYE.....GL and thax for the Your tecnicals....

Rye, NY et 01:01 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
US SW 00:39 GMT January 22, 2008
I trade this pair every day--on an intra-day basis. Early Asia trade has already broken a key downside level that gives the pair an 80% chance of moving down today. The 14d ATR is 194 which puts it at 151.25 (from 2200 GMT). Key intra-day pivot at 151.14....fwiw...Good Trades

shanghai bc 01:00 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Vancouver 19:45 GMT January 21, 2008

You are a Noble man indeed :)

Malaysia puteraku73 00:51 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
In view of about BoJ intervention, I have a slight suspicion that the BoJ is buying large amounts of USD right now and this is why we do not see a large drop in the USDJPY level. At least not nearly as large, as in the case of GBPJPY or AUDJPY, for that matter.

Malaysia puteraku73 00:48 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I think eur/jpy will reach 150.00

Syd 00:42 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: NZ Shares Still Down But Paring Some Losses

US SW 00:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
I have a bid in for the e[email protected] anyone here that trades this pair think will get there?

Syd 00:39 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Australian new motor vehicle sales rose 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted 91,384 in December from 90,405 in November, Seasonally adjusted sales of passenger vehicles and sports utility vehicles grew 3.0% and 0.9% in December,
Australian Bureau of Statistics

Syd 00:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Australia's New Auto Sales +1.1% In Dec

philadelphia caba 00:33 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
guys, what approx. time (EST) can be BOJ decision tonite, pls? tia!

US SW 00:25 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
still long the CABLEYEN.....were sapling to lower the cost average in @..of 205.20

MNB 00:23 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
GBP rising from the ashes..................... juicy pips up fpr grabs. I believe its time to buy!

Syd 00:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
BOJ may cut interest rate at an early stage, possibly around 2Q, if yen's rise accelerates, says UBS Securities strategist Eiji Dohke.

Malaysia puteraku73 00:20 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
Manage to get sell eur/jpy at 152.80

US SW 00:18 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   

YVR MAXXIM 00:09 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
AEX MLK day/ month 1.9381 23.6 x 76.4

warsaw TOMi 00:04 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
they say one can never spot the knock-out punch, I believe it's true and logic, otherwise one could do sthg to avoid the punch..

guards on and fight back :)lol
gn all

Tallinn viies 00:00 GMT January 22, 2008 Reply   
1,4355 is enough for this month. I suggest to close your eyes and buy euros there. stop at 1,4303. even if stop done I would buy at lower again. target for year still at 1,6000


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