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Forex Forum Archive for 01/24/2008

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Syd 23:58 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ Wis Regulator: Still Unclear If Bond Insurers Need Bailout

Syd 23:54 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   

*DJ BOJ Minutes: Downside Risks To US Economy Growing

BOJ Minutes: Must Watch Weak Housing Impact On US Econ
BOJ Minutes: Weak Japan Housing Invest May Be Prolonged

BOJ Minutes:Smaller Japan Cos Suffering From High Oil Prices
BOJ Minutes: Profits At Smaller Firms Severe
BOJ Minutes: MOF Aide Hopes BOJ To Support Econ Via Policy




Syd 23:50 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US slides into dangerous 1930s 'liquidity trap'
The United States is sliding towards a dangerous 1930s-style "liquidity trap" that cannot easily be stopped by drastic cuts in interest rates, Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz has warned.
LINK


Gen dk 23:38 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London Gooner 23:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Gold Coast RC 23:12 GMT January 24, 2008
-
Why not. Then Gold $5000+ Oil $500 - EURUSD who know but above 2.0000 by how much.

As media say $ is crashing, that would be a lovely capitulation event.

:)



Syd 23:32 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ Japan Dec Core CPI +0.8% On Year; Mkt Expected +0.6%
Jan Core CPI +0.4% On Year; Mkt Expected +0.3%
Dec Overall CPI +0.7% On Yr; +0.2% On Mo
Jan Overall CPI +0.2% On Yr; -0.4% On Mo

Bon Air VA Dennis 23:26 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Gold Coast RC 23:12 GMT

you are recycling the same type of malrkey that was being spun at this time four years ago. drop it.

US SW 23:26 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
time to sell the usdcan...to 9975

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 23:21 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Or Roger Federer wins another Grand Slam? That would prove that he is the greatest of all time and that is a change in history, so that could be it....? off to go meditate.....ciao

keep coming up with ideas of what it could be, but we will see in the next month I am sure

Gainsborough hs 23:19 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Gold Coast RC 23:12 GMT January 24, 2008
Or Aliens land on the white house lawn and kidnap GWB,,,,that would be a dollar positive....lol..

Gold Coast RC 23:12 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Could this happen
US goes into Iran
Bush declares State of Emergency
Postpones Election (as commander in chief)
Stays in power untill it is all clear

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 22:59 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I will say one thing and for those who read it this is not some doomsday statement mmm k but....In the next month I would like to bring to attention to all that there could be some serious changes coming, and to be aware, I dont know what they will be exactly but through some of my sources and own intuition things are coming to a head very fast and within the next 6 weeks some shift will occur. It could be in the US or abroad or it may affect the globe as a whole. So, just be have your ears to the ground and be prepared for whatever this change may be through your own state of consciousness or being. This was just brought to my attention today and it was supposed to happen a long time from now but time has a way of speeding up and now this change is upon us. It will all be fine I am sure but just some shift that is all. Anyway, just thought I would share this and that is all, who knows maybe nothing will happen at all or be avoided, I am myself not a seer or a forecaster etc. Good trades to all wish everyone the best and ENJOY!!

Syd 22:45 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Global Growth Likely To Botomm Out In May -CS

Syd 22:21 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
AUD what goes up

http://danskeresearch.danskebank.com/link/AUD180108/$file/AUD180108.pdf

Syd 22:08 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ Greenspan: Chance Of US Recession 50% Or Slightly More -CP

dc CB 22:07 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Evening Standard reports billionaire vulture fund operator Wilbur Ross is in takeover talks with Ambac, the troubled bond insurer whose recent financial crisis was a major factor in this week's U.S. interest rate cut. The Evening Standard has learned that a deal for the stricken $14 bln (7.2 bln pound) U.S. co could come within the next two weeks. Ross declined to comment on specific potential deals but said he was keen to buy a bond insurer to take advantage of a coming wave of consolidation. "The monoline insurance industry's success depends on the reversal of some very unfortunate errors," Ross said. "It took what was a very safe industry and, through quite terrible misapplication of risk management, caused the troubles we see today." He added that any deal would depend on whether "you really have your arms around the degree of insolvency" in the sector.

USA BAY 22:04 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

YEAP stopped out, lucky was just a small position, will try to re-enter again later. Thanks for the view. Good trades.

UK Alex 22:04 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 20:52 GMT January 24, 2008
Zeus// I believe it is you who wants us to look left when we should be looking right. There has been an explosion of borrowing in the financial sector and now the chickens are coming home to roost.

London NYAM 21:49 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
BAY//USDCAD is quite likely to challenge 1.000 but it may switch back first.
Im happy to sit on final shorts for gbpjpy around these levels. stops just above 112.20 Its either here or its 213+. but odds on we break 211 and hit 209 now before we break 212.00 imho. sorry if you got stopped. that nasty cable.

Syd 21:48 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Daily Bankruptcy Review DJ

U.S. Debt In 'Severe' Distress At Highest Level Since 2003

The volume of U.S. corporate debt issued by companies in severe financial distress rose in January to the highest level in more than four years, suggesting corporate defaults are likely to surge in coming months, Standard & Poor's said in a new report.

The credit-rating agency said the ratio of "distressed" corporate debt to all speculative-grade debt jumped to 11.1% in January from 6.1% in December. The percentage this month is the highest since September 2003.

The surge occurred despite aggressive moves by the Federal Reserve to ease the credit crunch, which former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has described as the worst in a decade.

company's debt is considered distressed when its yield is greater than 10 percentage points above the 10-year Treasury note, or about 13.6% as of Thursday. The distressed ratio measures the number of distressed securities against the total number of speculative, or junk, securities.

S&P said the rising distress ratio, which has been climbing since bottoming out last spring, signals an increased need among companies for capital and could be a precursor to more defaults.

Defaults remained at an all-time low at the end of December, thanks in part to companies' limited funding needs. But S&P is projecting default rates to tick up to 3.4% within the next year.

This month has seen several major bankruptcy filings, including those of Quebecor World Inc., which listed more than $7 billion in liabilities; and Buffets Inc., which listed more than $1 billion in debt. S&P has said the number of companies at risk of default also has expanded.

"There remains a material risk that default could be significantly more pronounced and severe beyond the one-year forecast horizon," S&P said.

Companies are seeing more of their debt tumble into distressed ranks because the credit crunch has buyers of the debt demanding higher yields. Diane Vazza, an S&P managing director, said the threat of a recession and market volatilty are also factors driving the increase.

As of Jan. 15, distressed debt totaled $64.5 billion, almost almost $30 billion more than in December. S&P said 13 of the 25 industries it monitors had double-digit distress ratios. The industries with ratios 20% or higher were brokerage, retail/restaurants, consumer products and homebuilders.


Syd 21:45 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJTALK BACK:Stimulus,Fed Cuts Should Help But Crisis Continues

These are the personal views of Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland School of Business and former Chief Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission:
The $150 billion dollar stimulus package announced by the Bush Administration and Democratic leaders, coupled with interest rate cuts implemented by the Federal Reserve, should help avert an economic debacle but the danger of recession continues. The subprime crisis has created a shortage of business loans and mortgages, and imposed massive losses on U.S. banks. These are sending housing prices down, drain consumer and business spending, and impose the risk of recession.
Major U.S. banks have written down $100 billion in securities backed by defaulting adjustable rate mortgages and other questionable, creative mortgage products. Other losses are expected from auto loans, credit cards and home equity lines of credit-essentially second mortgages. Total U.S. bank losses should equal or exceed $150 billion and just about cancel out the benefits of stimulus package announced by the Administration and Congressional leaders.
Interest rate cuts announced earlier this week will also help by making resets on adjustable rate mortgages less painful and by lowering consumer borrowing rates for prime borrowers. However, many homeowners in trouble will remain distressed.

The absence of a bond market to securitize the largest jumbo mortgages and all but the best mortgages under $625,000 remains a serious problem for the housing market. The



dc CB 21:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Look who's running his mouth today:
"Greenspan says probability of a recession is 50%, maybe more, but we are not there yet."

put a sock in it you dottering twit!

Syd 21:33 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ RATE FUTURES REPORT: In Big Shift, Mkt Slashes Rate Cut Odds
U.S. interest rate futures markets took a huge step back Thursday from what had been the prevailing view only a day earlier, with falling prices reflecting significantly reduced expectations for continued aggressive Fed rate cutting.

Dramatic declines occurred in futures contracts tied to both short- and long-term interest rates, spurred on by a rebounding stock market and some upbeat economic indicators. The falling prices reversed what one participant described as a "pretty extreme" increase in prices and rate-cut expectations on Tuesday and Wednesday.

dc CB 21:32 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
gotta say I'm astonished, looking at the Loonie today.

dc CB 21:29 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
MSFT Microsoft beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY08 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (33.25 +1.32)

Reports Q2 (Dec) earnings of $0.50 per share, $0.04 better than the First Call consensus of $0.46; revenues rose 30.5% year/year to $16.37 bln vs the $15.95 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.43-0.45 vs. $0.44 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $14.3-14.6 bln vs. $14.43 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $1.85-1.88 vs. $1.81 consensus; sees FY08 revs of $59.9-60.5 bln vs. $59.36 bln consensus. Co said, "We continue to see healthy demand from both businesses and consumers in the United States and our growth in emerging markets is especially strong. Looking across Brazil, Russia, India and China, our field revenue reached a combined growth rate over 65% this quarter."
Briefing.com

Vail mc 20:59 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, would like to hear your thoughts on USDJPY at these levels. Thanks

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 20:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
My question is where did all of that moola go? Maybe to the ailing bankers? self fulfilling prophecy maybe? We may never know until we see mo money flowing into the US and the DOW printing 15000 this year.......then we will know......then we will know.......

Viva Le USD

USA Zeus 20:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Seriously though. Did they really believe that EVERYONE would believe the Mon-Tue global market meltdown for several $trillion was due to a few subprime loans gone sour in Merced California?? No chance. We knew better all along!!!!

Well I guess that's the way it goes for some markets. Mysteriously lose $ billions then blame others in order to get everyone looking left while they do an under the carpet sweep on the right.

There is no accountability- Everyone is a victim when the tail wags the dog.

Happy Day!

US SW 20:48 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
the yen is all about mr softy now for the short run

LDN Mahmood 20:45 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Oxford Hatib 20:41 GMT // The great mathematical precision of the beautiful musical composition.

Oxford Hatib 20:41 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
LDN Mahmood 20:36 GMT January 24, 2008

why?

US SW 20:38 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Looks Like MSFT will tell the EUROYENS story shortly...

LDN Mahmood 20:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
keep selling USD against eur, gbp, chf, aud, cad.
eur/$ above 1.4880 and 1.5020 will print.

US SW 20:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
took 35 pips on the EUROYEN....hoping the DJI futures will spice it upp more....look to get back in @ 158.70

Malaysia Fxtoon 20:33 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
anyone IB for ODLSecurities here?

USA Zeus 20:30 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Hello all y'all. Well as a Ttrader Joe, just trading those EUR/USD shorts (clipped out 1/2 @ 1.4747) for the freebie laser fire quick strike scalps. The rest are @ b/e for now. Doubt I'll post more about them or not depending. Trading a lot all over the place atm. This is profit season.

To those other Q's- Not calling for any crashes etc and no price targets just exponential equity curves and alpha enhancer profit objectives to surpass Zanger's record etc.

Ok- GL and Great Trades to all Pro's and Joe's!

bilbao PEDRO 20:29 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US ...usdgbp looks very strong to short it...what is your tgt?

Malaysia Fxtoon 20:20 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
now 1.0070...i will buy again area 1.0030-50

US SW 20:14 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia Fxtoon 20:06 GMT January 24, 2008

SEEING 101 before retracement....

Malaysia Fxtoon 20:06 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
i think UCAD can go as lower as 0.9980...now sellers are selling when it retracing

Syd 20:06 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
*DJ Italian PM Prodi To Hand In Resignation Thurs Evening -Aides

US SW 20:03 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USDCAD sellers running out of Juice

US SW 19:58 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
FIBO....Cool...I use the same tools, but mostly stay away from pairs that or vulnable to upcoming data....Though I will trade the EURUSD next week on the FED, but after the fire has gone out..CHEERS

Malaysia Fxtoon 19:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW

I am using fibo expansion and sometimes heiken ashi.when price too much away from heiken...i enter against trend...coz normally price will get in touch with heiken...

looks like GU has gone up 261.8% and this is like wave C or wave 3 as you like...

US SW 19:46 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia

Just curious, how long have you been scalping...seem that we have some of the same strategys in place...maybe just for now..,but I think we will have a good year...Good Luck to You Sir

US SW 19:43 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I am shorting GBPUSD 1.9750 and EURUSD 1.4770

My favorite trade of the day...Im 80 percent sure this will be a healthy profitable trade for the short term...good trade!

Malaysia Fxtoon 19:39 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
seeing target for gbpusd 1.9680....

US SW 19:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I believe the EROUSD will touch 147 in the short term and then were off to the races to the old highs...then we sell again...Done for the DAY..unless the EUROYEN can squeezzz some more weak shorts...I have a target of 155.90 on the EUROYEN......sseeya

Syd 19:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Fiscal Stimulus Plan Won't Be So Stimulating
Bernard Baumohl at the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, NJ, says of the emerging fiscal stimulus plan: "Our take is that while the fiscal stimulus package can't hurt, it will play only a marginal role in reviving economic growth. This economic slump started with the mess in the financial services sector, and it will not end until bank and other lenders successfully restore their balance sheets and capital levels."



FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 19:34 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Added short E/U at 1.4756 as well as E/Y at 157.84

Malaysia Fxtoon 19:33 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I am shorting GBPUSD 1.9750 and EURUSD 1.4770

againts the trend just for scalping

US SW 19:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus

EUR/JPY have a offer @ 158.82 what ya think...will it hit IYO

isr jweb 19:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
zeus. hi. i have printed short term target at 1.4825+ for eur/usd. where do u get your idea from?

what do u say about gold what target should i have long?

Syd 19:25 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ Muted risk appetite in early months of this will likely keep growth currencies like NZD and AUD under selling pressure, says Bank of NZ in report; adds once there's clearer evidence NZ economy turning down, NZD/USD likely to fall, likely to go below 0.7000; over short-term, growth and interest rate differentials widening in NZ's favor will support pair above 0.7000. "By mid-2008 we suspect there will be clearer evidence the NZ economy is coming off the boil; accordingly, we look for the NZD/USD to fall towards 0.6900 by year end." Pair last 0.7739. BZ

Hasselt Red 19:24 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:09 GMT January 24, 2008

<
zeus , do you mean eurusd going to crash?

US SW 19:23 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
EUROSWISSFRANK LOOKING TIRED IMO

PAR 19:20 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Hearing SOcGEN long US treasury futures . Lol.

US SW 19:14 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
selling the euroyen now...gl all

USA Zeus 19:09 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
This trader Joe added some more shorts-
EUR/USD 1.4778.

This could turn out to be some red hot chili peppers.

dc CB 18:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
So at the peak of fear yesterday, the 30Y US TBond march futures traded as high a 122-28, level no seen since June 2003.
Currently trading 118-25.

US SW 18:55 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW 18:31 GMT January 24, 2008
EUR.JPY about to BLOW UPP...I think will some resistance around 157.70 GL all

US SW 18:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
TRADER JOE JUST MAKDE 5 LARGE ONTHEEUROYEN LOL

USA Zeus 18:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Forced to take action.
Short EUR/USD 1.4766

dc CB 18:50 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
*Fannie Mae: Fannie, Freddie conforming loan limits to rise to $625,500 from $417,000 for one yr.

*117 mln U.S. families to get tax rebate check under stimulus deal, according to U.S. House Speaker Pelosi Document - Reuters

USA BAY 18:42 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Any view on eur/cad and usd/cad at current levels, will we see 97 in usd/cad? tia

USA BAY 18:40 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

YEP, Thanks for the warning, will look at the pair, will reverse if works out the other way anyway my stoploss is 50 pips. Not so confident on this trade so very small trade. Thanks again

London NYAM 18:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 18:35//sorry i cant offer much on that pair. Its pretty messy and too dangerous for me right now.

US SW 18:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:28 GMT January 24, 2008


Well Said...I was waiting for something with sense from you...Its all about controlling you emotions and triger finger. THEE END

London NYAM 18:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
BAY//Careful as it has a reach around chance to ectend its fifth leg on the micro charts. Its running out of space and close to an important 23,6% fib retrace level.
Also i do believe you are right to wonder about the GBPUSD to 2.00 and the cross to 216. etc. I believe this is just the first leg (30 or so hours) up.
Best of luck we shall see how 212.00 holds as getting up there will be a rare event on my pattern list. gt, gl & gn

USA BAY 18:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
London Nyam,

eur/gbp looks more to the downside and may see 7250 area before a rally towards 7575 I think. But going up also seems likely.

USA BAY 18:32 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
London Nyam,

Thanks Nyam, was having the same view for gbp/jpy but seems like cable could test 2.00 again and if that happens was wondering whether gbp/jpy could test 216.50. Anyway I am in short gbp/jpy small position at 210.41. Good trades pal.

US SW 18:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
EUR.JPY about to BLOW UPP...I think will some resistance around 157.70 GL all

USA Zeus 18:28 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Ahh yes that perpetual "Pro's vs Joe's" debate.
In the end there is no end. Everything works and nothing works all at the same time. There are no "experts" in trading only traders.

PAR 18:15 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Fed says was unaware of Socgen Fraud when it made decision to cut rates on Tuesday . Contary to ECB which was aware of problem on Sunday .

dc CB 18:12 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
House Leaders Pelosi, Boehner and Treasury's Paulson to hold news conference on stimulus at 1:30 pm - Reuters

US SW 18:11 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:09 GMT January 24, 2008
SW 18:00 / not the first time either that sort of assertion has been made on the forum. looks like this club is growing and growing. best of trades.

I don't understand what your trying to say...can you be more explicit?

Mtl JP 18:09 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
SW 18:00 / not the first time either that sort of assertion has been made on the forum. looks like this club is growing and growing. best of trades.

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 18:07 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
PAR 17:28 GMT January 24, 2008
*DJ Trichet: No Time For Complacency On Inflation, Money Mkts
*DJ Trichet: Banking Regulation Must Be Permanently Upgraded

Thanks for the Know Ledge Par.....the EU is going to fall off? what is your viewpoint? You already know Zeus and mine....care you cast a hand at speculating?

US SW 18:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:50 GMT January 24, 2008

BEEN THERE DONE THAT ON THE NASDAQ

I don't trade on emotion and no when to cut my losses...I like to scalpe...thats my game...If I lost my entire account I would still have a profit for the last 2 months..so I guess trading around data and using different hedging techniques have kept me in the GAME.

Como Perrie 17:56 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quitting remaining 1/2 eurusds longs..flat now there..I'll see later or tomorrow..enough for today

mad 17:55 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
this guy will be a star in the coming months and will open a bakery with Croissants, pain au chocolat, brioche etc... either in the City, Wall street or another financial center in the wordl.

And the name of the shop will be...........8-)

mad 17:53 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
All hope for Jerome to marry Gisele are now gone .....8-(

Mtl JP 17:50 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
SW / exactly and precisely. as in your 17:43.

think your account can handle a flash 500-800 pip move against you ?

USA Zeus 17:49 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Funny thing though about the losses and blame game- A few bios here, a baker's dozen there....Sounds like the tail wagged the dog. LOL

lkwd jj 17:46 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
thought it was a hedge fund. what are the odds on his account # 777777?
-----------------------------
whos picking up the pieces (the trades to liquidate) or are the details not out yet.

US SW 17:43 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
PAR 17:39 GMT January 24, 2008
Averaging killed more people than the war.

Ok, know you got me concerned...I have been making healthy profits weekly, and now scared that I will have one bad day that will wype all my profits out...is this the story your talking about???

PAR 17:39 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Averaging killed more people than the war.

Haifa ac 17:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Calgary Brian 17:24 GMT //You need to show first that you Know OLIVER and you can pick a pocket of two. A reccomendation from Fagin can't hurt.

GENEVA DS 17:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
JEROME had to give his name only... it is not possible that one trader can hide 5 Billion USD one shot... at least I HOPE NOT... otherwise, there will be a massive run to all the banks worldwide, STARTING TOMORROW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

US SW 17:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:01 GMT January 24, 2008
SW 16:49 / the "constructing a position block by block" by "adding building blocks" or "adding some pillars" method been exposed on this forum before. gl

is this not a good trading practice??? I have doing this for the last six months...whats the downturn, anyone?

PAR 17:34 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Jean Claude Trichet has been providing plenty of liquidity to
Jerome Kerviel . Lol.

USA Zeus 17:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Haifa ac 17:22 GMT January 24, 2008

If they find themselves in a pinch and need to "hedge" their losses perhaps they can bring in the Canadian rock star Brian Hunter.

PAR 17:28 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
*DJ Trichet: No Time For Complacency On Inflation, Money Mkts
*DJ Trichet: Banking Regulation Must Be Permanently Upgraded

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 17:25 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Any news on the Trichet speech? Thnxz

Calgary Brian 17:24 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
How do I sign up for the program Haifa?

USA Zeus 17:24 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Haifa ac 17:22 GMT January 24, 2008

That sounds pretty spicy ;-)))

Haifa ac 17:22 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Jerome Kerviel, Nick Leeson and John Rusnak are forming a new trading school. First semester is already full.

dc CB 17:11 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today released its January Monetary Policy Report Update. In this Update, the Bank said that the Canadian economy continues to operate above its production capacity, despite some slowing in growth in the fourth quarter of 2007. Both total and core inflation have been lower than projected in the October Monetary Policy Report, largely reflecting a price-level adjustment related to increased competitive pressures in the retail sector stemming from the level of the Canadian dollar...................................................................
The risks to the Bank's inflation projection are judged to be roughly balanced. On the upside, there is continued strong momentum in domestic demand growth, and capacity pressures could be stronger than judged, especially if weak productivity growth were to persist. On the downside, the tightening in credit conditions globally and in Canada could be greater and more protracted than assumed, and there could be a more prolonged slowdown in the U.S. economy. As well, competitive pressures in Canada's retail sector could put more downward pressure on prices than assumed.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/press/2008/pr08-2.html

PAR 17:08 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Think GS is on the other side of the SG ( SOCGEN) trade, hence strong US stock market . Imho GS much better than SG, thats why I fthink in long term EUR will collaps . Lol.

GENEVA DS 17:07 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
MONACO Oil Man... ?? Have we seen today the big reversal in USDCAD... I remember you saying in November that this thing could go down quite a lot.. todays break at 10165 was for me a medium and long term speculator very important, and gave a sell signal for 9700 first... lets wait and see and would really appreciate your medium term comment on that one... all the best to all... good luck...

USA Zeus 17:06 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Also still holding cornerstone from building block shorts on GBP/USD @ 2.1112. and hedged lower but to lift that soon etc

Happy Day!

US SW 17:06 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:01 GMT January 24, 2008


what were you trying to say in that open ended coment..please

US SW 17:04 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
or you telling me that traders like that don't last?

Mtl JP 17:01 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
SW 16:49 / the "constructing a position block by block" by "adding building blocks" or "adding some pillars" method been exposed on this forum before. gl

London Big Blind 17:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW 16:49 GMT January 24, 2008
I won't sell it till I see a nice retrace firt. I missed a good one on aud/usd to buy at 0.8765 for 0.8805.I'm done for today.

USA Zeus 17:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Ok- EUR/USD 1.4737. We are now into the whip chop phase.
Take it with a grain of salt. LOL

HK Kevin 17:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Mot quite confortable with my short EUR. Lower the stop to 1.4752

London NYAM 17:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
BAY// Ending formation i believe for GBPJPY. Sold some at 210.48 with adds at 210.70-90 area stops between 211.20 and 211.70. Bad signal for equitues if they continue to correlate. Targets will, i think, correct entire move from the lows.
EURGBP im afraid i havent been paying attention...

Malaysia puteraku73 16:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   


San Francisco, January 24th. US ten-yr bond yields are testing fresh session highs of 3.644% with forex traders reporting that they are hearing rumors that the Fed will not cut rates next week following the disclosure that Soc Gen unwinding of equity futures holdings were behind the global stock market slump this week rather than subprime woes.


USA BAY 16:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

HEY NYAM, can you share your view on gbp/jpy please and also eur/gbp. tia

US SW 16:49 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I was just busting your balls...Im down 15 pips....I'm not worried though...I have no stops and plan on adding if we fall another 50pips GL

KL FS 16:48 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
must admit euro is very well bid and usdchf looks set to drop, missed this euro train unfortunately as limit order was not hit
good night all, good luck

lkwd jj 16:45 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
anybody with idea on $Y? is this rally (200 pips) runing out of gas?

London Big Blind 16:44 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW 16:37 GMT January 24, 2008
I'm glad you took something out of it. Personnaly I set and forgot, my profit melt down to break even, 3 pips from the target.. Nevermind.

The Netherlands Purk 16:42 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
The hailing of the usd/cad was right. That is the second time in two months that the hailing for 1.0000000 was correct.

US SW 16:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind


Sold my USDCAD for a nice little Profit....Thax for the idea.. :>)

UK Alex 16:30 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
dc CB 16:05 GMT January 24, 2008
That's code for "there is no solution".

St. Annaland Bob 16:18 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   

if the current times show insurers rushing to find an insurance, and we all know that US if few decades ahead of Europe with it's transparency over issues as the current financial crisis ... that means it's not so far ahead until serious issues will come out the European closet ... so, each one has reasons to meet the market with specific position (not talking scalps now) ... last post for today, bye!

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:09 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Tks Perrie, So. Europe for us is late Sept to Oct always, hate hot...tourists home by then, cheaper, less crowded. Am really interested in getting people's takes on things over glass of vino etc.. When we tour we're on foot in small streets, villages etc. to see the "real". We're not the usual tourists..we investigate. Maybe consider purchase of sm. cottage in northern alps. I want to get real people's takes on the Euro & other things to enhance our knowledge of world econ, FX. We combine vacations w/ learning. Italy/Sicily has always drawn me powerfully and I think it's both the history and the people themselves. I love Italian everything.

I have no platform stability..signing out...C U all Tom.

dc CB 16:05 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
NY Regulator says bond insurer bailout 'complicated' - WSJ

WSJ reports New York State Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo, who met Wed with banks regarding a possible bailout for troubled bond insurers, issued a statement Thursday morning that warned of "complicated issues" and said "any effective plan will take some time to finalize." "Clearly it is important to resolve issues related to the bond insurers as soon as possible. However, it must be understood that these are complicated issues involving a number of parties and any effective plan will take some time to finalize," Dinallo said in the statement. "In the meantime, we will not respond to the inevitable rumors. We believe it is important that the goals of market stability, protection for policyholders and a healthy and competitive bond insurance market be realized in the near future." (ABK, MBI)

London Big Blind 16:05 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Unless eur/usd can pass and hold 1.4715, the most probable event is a return on 1.4680, which is the scenario I favor.

Helsinki iw 16:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
The whip chop started a few years ago. And will continue ad infintum if these fiscal and monetary policies are kept in place.

USA Zeus 16:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD whip chop to commence soon.

Como Perrie 16:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:52 GMT January 24, 2008

:)) as a tourist youll have good time in Sicily just avoid summer heavy hot 40 to 45 degrees lasting for some two weeks there when It peaks...then some risks of bad weather too..so check up well the whole...some in october are still swiming there..maybe early spingtimes are better as weather

gotta go now
bi

St. Annaland Bob 15:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   

EUR/USD: I don't feel like bringing in big words of explosive statement to explain why my bias is short that pair ... simply, I did not see any good happening to anyone trying to run a real position with entry above 14700, so simple I see things ... as I mentioned few times as long 153000 is not around as buy level below 14000 remains very legitimate and gravity friendly target ... I am trading around here and with scalps it's all fine for now ... anyway, for the next 24HRS there will be some bailout points if the mood will not pass for taking the trade into the weekend ... good trades to all ... FWIW

PAR 15:54 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Again EUR higher again JPY and CNY . So more plant closures , slower growth and more unemployment in Europe .

Makassar Alimin 15:53 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
watching usd index is heading down, could be heading to lower BB but day is still young, anything could happen, tomorrow friday is always nasty as well, suggest to be careful

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Perrie, am planning 4-6 weeks con esposa in Italy/Sicily this fall for fun + investigation of man on street's takes. Cinzano 'pasta too. Vi consigliamo di questo?

Como Perrie 15:48 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:44 GMT January 24, 2008

there are many italians am hearing would love to migrate to Spain...most youngsters do as this is a nation for privileged aged people and priest's amigos. So far still good for some, but a national reserach issued from www.censis.it you can get the whole trough the net... 1 on 2 in Italy are thinking to migrate...obviously those who would love to stay are living from state benfits or those having bigger interests here..

Syd 15:46 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
BOE's Sentance: Weaker GBP Helps Rebalance Econ - Reuters

Syd 15:44 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
WSJ: US Economic Stimulus Plan Causing Friction In The House WASHINGTON Top lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives reached an agreement on legislation to jumpstart the economy, but the details were already causing friction, especially on the Democratic side of the aisle.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:44 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Reason I'm asking, doing a little research on overall core & surface stability of Euro. I can forsee an exodus from Euro on 1 hand via FX only, that is not reinstating former cncys even in light of oil deals now being done some in Euros. I don't put reinstatement of foreign cncy's out of the question as things get tighter world wide and "why did we ever do this" becomes a more common question. Talked to amigos in Spain half hr. ago, sad inflation issues there, people on the street ain't happy. Jobs scarce, no pay raises, incomes not increasing but prices going up, harvests so so in some ag sectors. Could raise the price of airline wine & martini's con oliva? ;^/

tokyo ginko 15:44 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
option on what pls?

Como Perrie 15:43 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
so far if the situation persist and Its high likely since Italy has also huge costs as from the aged (most aged in europe with over 30 pct of people over 60) ..with bad inheritated retirment schemes, obviously then costly national madicare and borbonic public organisation of bureaucracy yet with most laws of national organisation dated back to the 1870 and 1930 .... the Belgium splitting nation syndrome might hit heavily here too... most got enough of this pseudo feudal called democracy... just black markets make for most an opportunity here, hence the some 5 to 10 mio immigrants working for mafias here are richer than honest homeland workers

USA Zeus 15:42 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 15:29 GMT January 24, 2008

Just sold a bunch of Feb and March out of the money puts for the premiums and a chance for some more cheap add-on assignments. Also sold a few (covered) calls that would force a silly grin if called away. Otherwise, will buy them back on the cheap and keep it going.


GLGT

Syd 15:42 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ BOC Cuts Growth,CPI Forecasts, Signals More Rate Cuts

Como Perrie 15:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:36 GMT January 24, 2008

:))))))))))...forget the past century....

so far my feeling tells me at one point we might be used to devaluate the euro

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Perrie, what's sentiment in Italy about reverting back to Lira?

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:32 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Have to leave...mkt looks dull at this point, internet ADSL unstable, platy off 'n on, data didn't move stuff much..agree w/ MTL on gold watch...scratching around in all time high zone on 3 big fat green daily candles says momentum up & no doji yet. Eyeing double top on XAU dailies formed Nov7 thru Nov25 as possible model for today's formation to fall fast but w/ FOMC @ Jan 30 as deciding factor. This to me will B tough year to trade FX long term possies if January's complexities persist rest of semester. I wish it was like the old days: could set it & forget it a month or 2 as FX followed a nice 9 yr. sine curve LOL /^> Now it's like living in a random meteor shower.

Maribor 15:29 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Citi: above 27 is good for taking some profit...

Como Perrie 15:26 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
PAR 15:20 GMT January 24, 2008

;)))))))) there's something wrong..Italy is already into recession, with the poorer salaries in Europe and increasing living costs most having problems ending safe into month end. This while both reps and dems have failed from revision the huge and costly public sector. The south is a problem from the 1860 and now with the waste scandal in Neaples It gets even worst with levels of dioxing at least 10 times over limits. As a conseguence most of food, water and air is heavily polluted down there.

One of the unhappier countries in europe if not the first one, with devastating politicians and frauds and scandals onto a near daily basis exploding.

So one has to be fully cinical to digest the whole. Not to tell one of the heaviest taxation of the western world of which 1/4 to 1/3 of taxes paid are going to another State, the Vatican.

Simply unbearble the whole.

HK Kevin 15:26 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 15:03, yes. AUD/JPY next target is 98 if close above 98 today. I will also cover my short EUR even at loss if EUR/JPY close above 157.20 today. The FX market is currently dancing with the stock market, and I expect a high opening but a down day at closing.
You know, I have entered long AUD/JPY yesterday at 91.40, but stop loss at 91.08, it went down to90.68 before thereocket launch. Fortunately, another long USD/JPY from 105.14 was covered at 105.72 at Asian morning.

London Big Blind 15:26 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW 15:22 GMT January 24, 2008
1.0137 target, 50 pips is what I'm taking too. I won't dare for more with such bearish price action.

Maribor 15:22 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USD index close to turn level 75,98...should have implications for main USD pairs...

US SW 15:22 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind 15:20 GMT January 24, 2008

Im not much of a risk taker...just looking for 50 pips GL

London NYAM 15:21 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Decent multiple completion of 5 wave complexes on g/j looks very ready..

London Big Blind 15:20 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW 15:15 GMT January 24, 2008
I'm watching the 1.0112 level, evolving above increases the chance to see 1.0137 where I'll close the trade.

PAR 15:20 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Italy Could Face Recession Soon - Bear Stearns

US SW 15:15 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind 15:13 GMT January 24, 2008


went long as well GL

dc CB 15:14 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:37 GMT January 24, 2008
WSJ Fed-watcher Ip affirms today that “The Fed is determined to front-load easing -- to deliver planned interest-rate relief sooner rather than later.

They are considering the lag time of cause and effect. If they let this one get away from them and things are really bad into the fall, they know there's no chance in he(( for a Repub Pres candidate. I can hear the tag line in the Democrat ads now: "Heck of a Job"

Hong Kong Qindex 15:14 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY : I don't think we have seen the monthly cycle low yet.

London Big Blind 15:13 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Long usd/cad for a 40 pips retrace stop .75

London Big Blind 15:13 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Long usd/cad for a 40 pips retrace stop .75

Como Perrie 15:10 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
All looks the buck is heavily sold today from anywhere

Hong Kong Qindex 15:09 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY : My bias is on the downside when the market is below 106.99.

Syd 15:07 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Fitch slashes the triple-A rating of Security Capital Assurance eight notches to triple-B, near the bottom of the investment-grade ladder. Its subsidiary XL Capital Assurance was cut to A from triple-A. Fitch said the downgrades follow SCA's announcement not to raise new capital due to market conditions. The ratings are on negative watch, meaning they could be cut further. SCA has insured $154.16 billion of outstanding bonds, the bulk of which through XL Capital Assurance

dow

dc CB 15:04 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Tentative agreement reached on US Stimulus Plan; Plan includes tax rebates of $300-1200, House aides say - DJ

Makassar Alimin 15:03 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:00 GMT January 24, 2008

Kevin, if I remember correctly Ahe said something about audjpy to 98 level, so perhaps would be wise to watch that as well before entering aud short, i believe he is right, it is very much being the target next

Syd 15:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US Dec Existing Home Sales -2.2% To 4.89M Rate

HK Kevin 15:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Great opp to sell AUD at 0.8785 with a stop at 0.8809. Since I have entered short EUR and don't want to be over-trading in this violate market, don't act on this. If you trade this pair, should also watch for the resistance of AUD/JPY at 94.00.

Makassar Alimin 14:59 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:54 GMT January 24, 2008

JP, usdcad is also leading as usual, i think it is the most honest pair re. direction of usd in general

US SW 14:56 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I Agree totatly...Lets see how this plays out!

Makassar Alimin 14:55 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW 14:44 GMT January 24, 2008

i have not seen any signal to short euro yet, so i am not even thinking of establishing a short position, patience is needed

Mtl JP 14:54 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Gold is talking. To those willing to listen

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:44 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Valid question Zeus, when will Fed turn hawkish? Fed seems to act too quickly in the past w/ hawk policy now it's got egg-in-face so it's fair to assume they'll again knee jerk to undo what they've done lately. Hope I'm wrong. Fed needs a new chief, & shake up in general personally. A weak USD will help world econ in that USA will be able to heal, healing requires time, patience, globe would do well in attending matters at home rather than relying on the big teit.

US SW 14:44 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I agree Makassar, I feel that the mojo stops will start hitting around 14734 then maybe will start scailing

USA Zeus 14:43 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
European officials talk about second-round effects (wage-push) as though it’s the only issue on the table and credit contraction is not an offset of any kind. But every modern fractional-reserve economy is driven by the multiplier effect (whereby one dollar in bank deposits becomes two or three as it get lent out and re-deposited several times).

This is Econ 101 and the great bane of the Japanese economy, which suffers to this day from the inability to push on string—get banks to lend and borrowers to borrow. In the current situation in the US, banks can’t increase lending until they get their balance sheets in order and feel certain that new lending will not result in new losses, hence tighter credit quality. In Europe, contraction of credit may have the effect of causing firms to reduce growth plans, which by definition means reducing employment plans. Since labor markets are rigid, this doesn’t necessarily mean a drop in wages, and thus a failure by the ECB to cut rates will have a proportionately bigger and longer-lasting contractionary effect. In short, Europe is refusing to learn from the example of Japan’s deflationary decade. Speed is of the essence--Japan denied the problem for too long, and failed to fix the banks quickly, prolonging the problem.

Makassar Alimin 14:41 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 14:36 GMT January 24, 2008

I honestly think you need a stop, entering at the moment would feel like picking tops to me as 4hr chart in fact is indicating higher price from here

maybe you know something better than me, if so, by all means go ahead with your plan

Hasselt Red 14:40 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 14:29 GMT January 24

whats your target? got 14677 and next 114635 here ....thnx

St. Annaland Bob 14:39 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
philadelphia caba 14:38 GMT January 24, 2008

enjoy the date with 15888

USA Zeus 14:39 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
T i d b i t : Bill Gates plans to tell the World Economic Forum in Davos that he has a new theory of capitalism, called creative capitalism, that will join the moral satisfaction from doing good with the profit motive to help the bottom poorest third of the world’s population. We say Mr. Gates could do good and help hundreds of millions of people by fixing his own products.

Como Perrie 14:39 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Paulosn and Trichet again onto the wires later on.

philadelphia caba 14:38 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
short eur/chf at 1.6001, s/l above 6080 ..

USA Zeus 14:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
T i d b i t : The CME raised the initial margin on the eurodollar contract (3-month interest rate) from $878 to $1013

USA Zeus 14:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Markets expect the Fed to cut 50 bp at next week’s policy meeting, and think it hasbeen all but promised (meaning ugly price changes and loud screaming if they don’t get it). Yesterday, futures indicated that the market was expecting a full 100 bp by the end of March (to 2.5%). WSJ Fed-watcher Ip affirms today that “The Fed is determined to front-load easing -- to deliver planned interest-rate relief sooner rather than later. Less clear is whether the Fed also intends to ultimately get rates to a lower end point than it previously thought.” This will be one of the agenda items at next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. What will be the lowest low and thus the turning point (where the next move is a hike)?
Probably 2-2.25%.


T h e M a i n E v e n t : The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.426% (and opened on a gap down)

HK Kevin 14:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Eold EUR 1.4720 order fill. Stop above 1.4780 for today.

St. Annaland Bob 14:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:32 GMT January 24, 2008

don't feel uncomfortable to have 147xx shorts for the next 24HRS

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:33 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Sold another EUR here at 1.707....also sold EUR/GBP at 7466 earlier and EUR/SEK at 9.49....Enjoy the day my friends

Hong Kong Qindex 14:33 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 106.34.

Makassar Alimin 14:32 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 14:29 GMT January 24, 2008

careful Bob, not yet time to jump in IMHO

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
No one's really SAID this so I can't quote but it's reasonable to assume Fed has to be tied into reducing part of the tripple deficit to make USA "stronger" (my theory) afterall Fed + government in concert = stability or instability. Lowering rates lowers USD value vs majors/gold etc. making exports flow, decreasing trade deficit. I think we should think of this tie of government w/ Fed in this way. BTW Rob, I longed EUR/USD as you recommended, am pips + so tks for reinfocing my view. I often counter view to see forum's reaction to it lest I get head swell here.

St. Annaland Bob 14:29 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   

sold EUR/USD @ 14702

Como Perrie 14:24 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
The FED also needs a slow down of the economy so to justify rate cuts.

mad 14:24 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
i just want my Yves Mersch back or a similar person

8-)

London Gooner 14:24 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Gold is very interesting. Testing is the shorts have the courage to stay in. I expect them to cover soon.
That would translate in further USD weakness near future.

US SW 14:23 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Thank you everyone....for your thoughts...this is one board I will be watching for years to come...GL everyone...

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:21 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
While mkt sleeps here, regarding Jan 30 FOMC, what many don't realize is that big fish wait for 100% confirmation of what they already pretty well "know" is going to happen in any data/news release. Then they pounce & only then, their plan on paper is executed, whereas we the lowly FXers sipping coffee in our sweat clothes or fake Wall Street "offices" (!) are clueless to big fish's plans AND hence which way mkt makers will swerve the mkt. Mkt makers to me seem "waiting" for something, suspect it's confirmation on 2 things..whether FOMC will cut 50 or 75 and second, the immediate effect within 36 hours of equity recouperation. NY Rob last night recommended long EUR/USD, I find that attractive to short USD vs any major but EUR/USD longs seem the most volitile and apt to satisfy traders.

NY Rob 14:20 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:17 GMT January 24, 2008

for today 1.4720 prob is enough of a resting place, but tomorrow is a different case Kevin, i still believe we will see 1.48-1.49 certainly after 1.4720 blasted thru as well

Como Perrie 14:19 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
one has to remember housing in US last year was counting for 23 pct of the total US GDP, that means progressive housing slowing will cool down the US economy

Maribor 14:19 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW 14:11 GMT January 24, 2008

It will have no effect...EURUSD completed short term turn level @ 1,47 and will go down now short term. Longer term up and long term down.

US SW 14:18 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Thanx for your opinion Alimin, I thinking the same and am seeing some resistance as we speak...

HK Kevin 14:17 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
NY Rob 14:06 GMT, don't be over excited and buy hig sell low. IMHO, range market 1.4520-1.4730. My sell order is waiting at 1.4720.

USA Skeptic 14:17 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
good number Eurusd +, BAD NUMBERS eurusd + simple as that

Makassar Alimin 14:16 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW 14:11 GMT January 24, 2008

SW, i think it is not market moving either, but usd has been under pressure all day long, and would be hard thinking it goes the other way unless stoxx for some reason tank big time IMHO

US SW 14:11 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I would greatly appriciate a few different oppions on how a suprising Existing Home Sales will effect the dollar? Thax in advance SW

USA Zeus 14:07 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Come on give 'em all a break!
Let them explain how independent their banks and markets are from the US then watch them all blame $ trillions of capital market losses on a few subprime loans in Merced California. LMAO!

mad 14:06 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin + quito

8-)

NY Rob 14:06 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
euro has just made new 4 days-high, thus increasing odds of it going much higher, 1.48-1.49 should be seen next

Makassar Alimin 14:01 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
mad 13:53 GMT January 24, 2008

would be very interesting though if markets start collapsing again going into jan 30, it is the least expected by Fed but perhaps that's what mr market is going to tease them

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
1005=100%

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:59 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
MAD(rid), Tks & si..sub prime is a prob world wide, no bank is 1005 immune (as I implied). But CS and UBS are both huge and can absorb charges whereas some other banks aren't as fortunate and have a larger % of bad loans from being bottom feeders. Switzerland is the world's bank so the diversity alone makes it IMHO as stable as possible at present environment. EUR/USD longing a bit, swissy staying put...evidently big fish are waiting for something else to trigger their bets.

mad 13:56 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
don t worry, be happy

lalalalallallllaaaalalala

Syd 13:55 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ BoF's Noyer: French Banks Are Solid
French Consumers Have No Reason To Worry

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:54 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Actually MTL that's being done all too often making prices yet higher from "false" demand. Coffee buyers all over the place here paying top dollar, grain, veggie harvests in S. Am down due to climate issues, prices up 20% last week alone. The poor get poorer.There was a group from UN here 7 mo's ago checking grain inventory..was all over Latin Am investigating...said when we talked to one party investigations were worldwide. Something's up amigo. Big.

mad 13:53 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito, as far as i remember UBS , took charges of 4.2 billion Swiss francs ($3.6 billion) on subprime-related losses in fixed income in the third quarter of 2007.......,

8-)

PAR, NOYER is in a state of Denial, like his friend Samurai Fukui


Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- If you think Ben Bernanke has a lot on his plate, consider the dilemma facing Toshihiko Fukui.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aaR3kB8.QCUQ&refer=home

Mtl JP 13:50 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
valdez 13:46 / you make me think hoarding flour or rice the way to go

US SW 13:49 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
its very tempting but I just can't pull the trigger on anything right now until the data @10 ET...I have a gut feeling about the upside for the euroyen, but just not read to gain in yet

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 13:46 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:43 GMT January 24, 2008
a per ealrier with the write offs et all the whole some might be over 1 bio euros ...yet newswriters call them derivateves as most do not understand much from modern synthetics in building up huge asset/liability schemes and structured investment tools then driven to customers trough funds and banks

Thanks for the Info Commo...

Hey Zeus, here comes our EURO...Down-Down-Down-thanks to the wonderful world of banking :)

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:46 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Well guys, tks for the comebacks. As far as I know no banking system is immune including CHF. But to pick from the mob I'd go personally with Swiss. If they're smart they'll get positioned for bad times in terms of not only portfolio but businesswise - keeping fixed and variable costs way down etc.. What worries me is 3rd world banks that have no guarantee of deposit such as Ecuador, others. I've not much in these banks, moved to "higher ground" so to speak. Hoping 2nd half of 2008 will show stability but not counting on it. Food price increases due to climate change/agriculture issues coupled with general harder times spells serious probs in last half of 08 to me. I see the data didn't move anything much. I think mkt waits for FOMC. I sence a tense mkt.

Como Perrie 13:43 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
a per ealrier with the write offs et all the whole some might be over 1 bio euros ...yet newswriters call them derivateves as most do not understand much from modern synthetics in building up huge asset/liability schemes and structured investment tools then driven to customers trough funds and banks

PAR 13:43 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
*DJ Bof's Noyer: SocGen Losses High Because Of Bad Mkt Conditions LOL.

Como Perrie 13:41 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Italease, a top medium term loan issuer in Italy, has alo from 120 to 400 mio euros of fraudy schemes for structuring with derivatives kind of insured fixed mortages so to gain market share and customers.

USA Zeus 13:40 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
GENEVA DS 05:34 GMT January 24, 2008

DS- Well thank you for the compliment. Contra trades have been nothing less than awesome. When the crowd explains market action with helicopters, UFO's and the freemason conspiracies etc, it reveals much about the "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds".
Keep up the great work and thx for the CHF and JPY viewpoints.


hk ooozmeeh 04:51 GMT January 24, 2008
Thx a lot for sharing those facts.

Best of trades and...

Happy Day!

Makassar Alimin 13:39 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:35 GMT January 24, 2008

agree valdez, early half of 2008 looks to be safe-haven priority, then thru natural selection process getting rid of bad ones, confidence would return on the second half

Mtl JP 13:39 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
valdez 13:35 / do you think swiss banks are immune in an isolated ward ?

Syd 13:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez yes this type of news keeps slipping out like a bad smell , got to ask yourself how much more is there

US SW 13:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
EUROJPY headed to 159 IMO data GOOD!!!

The Netherlands Purk 13:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Looking to sell cable....

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Tks Syd, I think someone's trying subtilly to tip the world off to what's in store. A soft push here and there is what I see. Man, if the big banks turn up sour it's safe haven city...gold, CHF, tangibles and exit of funds from bank's books. This could be the 2008 from hades.

Syd 13:32 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
SocGen Case Could Be The Tip Of A Sector Iceberg

Societe Generale's (SCGLY) history-making EUR4.9 billion loss from what it called "exceptional fraud" could be the precursor to similar massive trading losses in the sector being brought to light due to the recent turmoil on equity markets, according to banking analysts.

These industry observers also point out that it's nearly impossible for tougher banking regulations to prevent crimes of this kind from happening again.

"It's quite possible that we'll see other accidents like this," said a Paris banking-sector analyst who declined to be identified.



US SW 13:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
sorry mean shorting

US SW 13:30 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
BUYING THE YEN ....good numbers

HK Kevin 13:29 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:15 GMT, expect a high opening and then a down day at market close.

The Netherlands Purk 13:28 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Closed my ST short in e/u already. Keeping the cores open. usd/jpy: make a decision..

Syd 13:26 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US Rate Futures Pare Back Rate Cut Odds

US SW 13:19 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
interesting I have been watching the Cableline for the last four hours....doesn't look tired to me YET! GLSW

London NYAM 13:17 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
SW//FWIW I am not short USDJPY but the GBPJPY cross. Pattern there is a little clearer to me. GLGT

Como Perrie 13:15 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
just remind a post from earlier...stocks are not our of waters as of yet and would not exclude another sharp downward shower at some point...maybe better at the opening, as seemingly yet lotsa small investers scary driving out from the double bubble enviroment, yet persitent somehow...If It gets crunched again..you'll not believe the levels printed in the next weeks from equities

US SW 13:12 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I don't believe the home sale will be much of importance at this point...we are at the worst time of the year for home sales anyways and the bad news is already out...JOB NUMBERS is were its at...building a Postion right now is crazy unless you have a crystal ball

Makassar Alimin 13:10 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW, i doubt the coming data will be much of a market mover

mad 13:09 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
not is all bad for EU banks " For the year, BBVA said net profit rose 29 percent to euro6.13 billion ($8.93 billion), compared with euro4.74 billion in 2006, driven by strong growth at its core Spanish and Mexican operations."

Now i know where all the banking fees i pay of 5+Euros per month go ....
8-)

Como Perrie 13:09 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
the only important numbers from US today as those about home sales at 10 am

US SW 13:07 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
YOU may be right LONDON though we have huge short intrest and were at a critiacal piviot point...if we don't accelerate from here the SP500 may test 1235 in the next Month or so...if this happens I will be shorting the usdyen just like you...it all about the data at this point IMO

US SW 13:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
in my humble opionion I believe the USDJPY will be Strong if the #'s are good...will see in about 30 minutes!

NYC 12:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SWS. Do you mean usd/jpy strong or jpy strong (lower usd/jpy)

London NYAM 12:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
US SW 12:55//I think you may have already seen that. Likely just late spec longs for the next leg.

US SW 12:55 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I'm Predicting a US short covering rally today...I expect the YEN to be strong all day...The EUROYEN may suprise some of YOU on the upside...GL all...

UK Alex 12:55 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
FWIW, SocGen was hedging in the futures market and downgrades to the bond insurers may have been the straw which broke the camel's back.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I tend to go with Perrie on his last post. A factor which can totally upset what is already unstable worldwide is bank shimmey. Subprime woes, now this. As I posted last night for over 6 months we've seen safe house buying..gold, CHF. Ask yourself who benefits from cheap housing mkt? Obviously parasites who buy-in at rock bottom... like Rockefellers before Abombs blasted Japan. Who bought-in when Japan realestate/share prices collapsed? Rockefeller. SONY (Standard Oil N.Y. - Rockefeller, chief of the Rockettes LOL) give you any clues? Who was a friend of Truman & Roosevelt? Rockefeller. Inside trading? Sure. Who benefitted by NOT telling Tokyo to attend Abomb test as was originally planned then suddenly skuttled? Got the picture? I think you best to watch Perrie's posts on further bank shimmeys. XAU, CHF, XAG may be the ticket.

Maribor 12:48 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Supervizors reacted panicaly if they closed long equity trades during last few days...Forced liquidation of positions (probably) pushed prices lower than normaly. Maybe thier reaction is to understand, as sometimes it is more important ta make things according to rules and not according to normal economy, but I believe that cost them quite big sum of money.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:40 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
The bank's time lag from Thurs news break explains an -intentional- move on someone's (or group) part, to create this scenario by ALLOWING it to happen knowing full well it was, then either short the shares or allow an existing set of shorts to "mature". The 30 yr. old trader on the run..was he a patsy and/or part of the plan? Interesting. Sort of like Pearl Harbor allowed to happen knowing full well 2 observers' reports of heavy Japanese naval, air movements, to provide a pathway that wouldn't have ordinarily existed for Americans to approve war. 9-11 also. So it can be done with banks. Human nature.

Como Perrie 12:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I would not exclude carry trade problems with huge synthetic assets liabilities frauds and hidden losses world wide to explode at some point....the small guy had enough in believing into overvalued stock market estimates and hard to think they will come back in mass for long time ahead..

mad 12:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
gut feeling the Gold will top 1000 us$ pretty soon

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:22 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
In cases like huge fraud where one doesn't know why in the world it was allowed to happen, ask yourself always, "who benefits from this" and you'll have arrived at the answer. Obviously a possible benefitter could have massive shorts of the bank's shares. Go & look. They tried this here in Ec 4 example...one guy was to say "Ecuador bonds, we won't pay them." then the idea was to short them making money TO pay them. The plot was uncovered but nothing was done..go figger who was in charge of "doing something" and who was to benefit from the plan, eh? l^)

Como Perrie 12:13 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
London HC 12:10 GMT January 24, 2008

good you made your day

remember there are not so many good entry points in this markets, so do not get obfuscated from scalpers here..

PAR 12:11 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
*DJ SocGen CEO: Informed Bank Of France's Noyer Sunday

London HC 12:10 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
This was a great alert:

Como Perrie 10:47 GMT January 24, 2008
stocks getting a lift here

Como Perrie 12:09 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
there are more northern rocks and socgens around Bob than printed around as o yet......

squared up eurusd longs from yesterday here 1/2...rising stops for remaining again

St. Annaland Bob 12:05 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
why SoGen wiping billions has to cause the market to wipe trillions?

mad 12:03 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Syd , i bet he had his fingers crossed when he said that
8-)

mad 12:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
PAR try Spain, they are even better 8-)

Syd 12:01 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling indicated Thursday that the Bank of England has leeway to lower interest rates further to help the economy through more difficult conditions.

"Because of the fact that we now have low unemployment, ... historically low inflation, low levels of interest rates and mortgage rates, the Monetary Policy Committee has room for maneuver, as the Governor said in his speech," on Tuesday, Darling said in comments to lawmakers in the House of Commons.
dj

PAR 11:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Societe Generale aware of problems from the weekend . Disclose the problem to the public on Thursday . Regulators and ECB aware of the problem ar SOCGEN on Sunday and they also forget to inform the public . This is the biggest insider trading scandal since Ivan Boesky and confirms the saying that in France you can only make money on inside information .

Maribor 11:51 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
philadelphia caba 11:41 GMT January 24, 2008

Must be someone who don't know it is going to 0,752 or even 0,755 or someone wants to make impresion it won't go (short term) higher.

The Netherlands Purk 11:48 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
New short e/u for some piptitos, wont take long...

Plovdiv Gotin 11:42 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
EBS cable hi,pls?TIA.

philadelphia caba 11:41 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
someone sitting on eur/gbp top 7480-90...? S&N takeover bid?

OTTAWA mjw 11:41 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   

censored , seems to be back up...

mad 11:39 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
what i would like to know Helsinki iw is why subprrime losses are not included ?? Ah maybe it is not trading ....

8-)

sofia kaprikorn 11:32 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe .......

hi - yes it is out for some time now..

hope you do fine! GL & GT!

Helsinki iw 11:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
'Allo, 'allo. SG and France move to top the list:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_trading_losses

mad 11:30 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said interest rates in the euro region are still ``accommodative'' and investors' expectations of reductions later this year may be ``wishful thinking.''

mad 11:22 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
A source at SocGen said the trader was "not one of its stars" and was relatively young. SocGen said the trader had been handling plain vanilla futures contracts on European stock market indices, betting on broad share market movements.
rters

What is this ? A Hollywood movie ? gosh , PR in full throttle

8-)

KL FS 11:17 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
exited 1.4665, not bad for a scalp

KL FS 11:14 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
bought euro here 1.4651 for a scalp, looks like momentum will take it quick higher, stop 1.4630

London MW 11:09 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
SocGen hit by $7.1 billion alleged fraud

Como Perrie 11:08 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
squaring up stock long indices here better and see later

mad 11:07 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Choose me Choose me !!!

the trader is shooting
" I have 7.1 US$ billion of Socgen..Who wants them ?? Come on "

LOL

GENEVA DS 11:06 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
PAR... do you mean , soon people will start loading carrys again, as the planet of dealers seems to be short every xxx/jpy by now?

mad 11:05 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Gimme a "Y"

A trader calls out a trade in the S&P 500 pit at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange January 22, 2008. Click here!

PAR 11:03 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
So mondays panic in the markets had nothing to do with Us subprime problems . It was just SOCGEN liquidating its huge fraudulous postion. And then in panic Bernanke lowered rates . Unbelievable .

London HC 11:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Is there any news out?

Como Perrie 10:47 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
stocks getting a lift here

PAR 10:40 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
After 20 years of mismanangement of the japanese economy LDP is blaming USA for japanese problems .

NTOKYO (AFP)--The party of Japan's Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda urged him Thursday to take action to boost the country's stock market amid growing fears of a US-led global economic slowdown.
A group of lawmakers from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party called notably for tax relief on stock trading and even looser monetary policy after big share price falls in Tokyo earlier this week as global stock markets tumbled.
"I think that the leader needs to feel a sense of urgency as stock prices have fallen so sharply in the Tokyo market," Yuji Yamamoto, the head of the group and former minister for financial services, told reporters.
Asia's largest economy is in the midst of its longest expansion since World War II as it recovers from recession in the 1990s. But concern is rising that a US slowdown could hit Japan hard as the recovery is largely based on exports.
Japanese share prices last year posted their first annual decline in five years. The benchmark Nikkei-225 index has lost nearly 15% since the start of 2008, although the Nikkei recovered the 13,000-point level Thursday.
The lawmakers called for temporary tax relief on stock trading until the Nikkei recovers to the 18,000-point mark.
Their proposal, handed to Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Machimura, also calls for a return to "quantitative easing," an unusual policy ended in 2006 whereby Japan's interest rates were almost zero in a bid to boost the economy.
The Bank of Japan, which is independent but often faces political pressure, this week kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, still by far the lowest among major economies.
Governor Toshihiko Fukui has repeatedly said he hopes Japan will return to an interest rate level in line with global norms, but analysts predict no rate hike for the time being given the concerns about the global economy.
Fukuda on Wednesday told British public broadcaster the BBC that he was concerned about the situation in the global economy.
"If the current situation prolongs, and the market continues to fall significantly, then the real economy, while it's still been very well, may be affected. I am somewhat worried about that," he said. OK=P

Como Perrie 10:34 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
cable is getting closer to an larger sell order zone.

mad 10:29 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
isn't it funny that the CBs seem to be the only ones to be blamed ?

Syd 10:24 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Europe and Asia face hard landings as bubbles burst
Triumphant bears have swept all before them at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland this year, growling down plaintive squeaks of optimism from the odd dazed bull.
The gathering kicked off with last rites for the theory of decoupling, that comforting belief that the global economy could sail briskly on, even as the US was engulfed by the sub-prime whirlpool.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/24/cnbubble124.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

Syd 10:23 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Bungling by central banks seen as main global risk
Leading economists and financiers have given warning that dawdling and mismanagement by central banks around the world pose by far the greatest risk to the global economy

LINK

mad 10:14 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
tokyo ginko

8-)

In a French or English bank, so you will learn what NOT to do on a big scale and apply it latter on 8-)

KL FS 10:04 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:55 GMT January 24, 2008

psychologically it does help at times Perrie, intraday trading in the direction of long eurusd, at least better confidence to hit when bigger size is needed

Gen dk 10:04 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 10:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Global-view Careers 09:59 GMT January 24, 2008

huh ..tks

so far the banking-finance sector looks to be dropping more employees in the times ahead -- maybe some mergings and aquisitions will start again, but in the second part of the year provided this stock market calms down into more normal ranges.

London WH 10:01 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
with all this mess re currencies and equities, the only winner I take is gold's safe haven status
can't see anything that could possibly turn gold into bear market, at least not in the foreseeable future
should be time to start accumulating if dips seen even with eyes closed

tokyo ginko 10:01 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
remember to start from operation department.

Global-view Careers 09:59 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Advance your career.
Employers find the talent you need.

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Como Perrie 09:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
so far stocks are moderately calm today for the time being.

Como Perrie 09:55 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
yes KL but that doe not apply to intraday trading that much, might be might be not...I guess most will closely watch Trichet today again for confirmation, plus the overall situation is not positive in europe too, much deepence how next weeks this gloal economy will evolve...cable has also interesting support 1.9490 or so..minor one 19550..yet some say here BOE more likely to follow FED rather than ECB onto their next int. rate policies

KL FS 09:51 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
ECB is nowhere near cutting rates story, so that should in itself be supportive to euro along the way

London Big Blind 09:50 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
target on eur/jpy raised to 156.10
long gbp/jpy at 207.65 for 209 stop 207.30

Como Perrie 09:49 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
later today in US Paulson and Trichet again on the wires..

Como Perrie 09:48 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
maybe due socgen also might be considering squaring up the eurusd stuff..as there's not only socgen for what Ive seen..several banks in europe are under heavy scrutiny of their balances (hidden ones)

Como Perrie 09:46 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
am raising eurusd stops up to 1.4540 from yesterdays 1.45

Como Perrie 09:44 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
so far I do see this usdjpy returning to upside just if goes clearly at least some 107.50 and higher.

Como Perrie 09:43 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
mortgage approvals in UK just slowed some data shows, while an interesting detaxation of shares from Japan as talks of returning to 0 int. rate policy have revived markets. On the other side Socgen fraud and losses investigation, but for only 5.5 billions will be evaluated later on....

complex and interesting the whole

PAR 09:42 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Euro still extremely overvalued against all possible currencies and not affected by problems in France , Italy, Belgium, Spain, Greece, Uk,. etc. Only Germany doing extremely well.

KL FS 09:33 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
will try same strategy as before as I see euro and gbp is holding up well, scaling in limit long euro 1.4613, 1.4552 and 1.4508 with ratio 1:2:3, stop all under 1.4470

will only consider taking short below 1.43, above that is either flat or going long

mad 09:24 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- German business confidence unexpectedly rose from a two-year low in January, indicating Europe's largest economy may weather a global stock-market slump and U.S. slowdown.

The Munich-based Ifo research institute said its business- climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, increased to 103.4 from 103 in December. Economists expected a drop to 102.3, according to the median of 42 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey.

Syd 09:23 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Barclays Capital says AUD/USD will depreciate significantly over the coming six months to 0.8000. AUD/USD recently traded at 0.8650 Wed morning. Data out overnight showed Australia's underlying inflation rate rose more than expected in Q4 2007, increasing pressure on the RBA to hike interest rates in Feb, as the U.S., Canada and U.K. ease. A rate cut while global growth is slowing will likely be "unfavourable for the currency's longer-term prospects, as the RBA would probably be sacrificing significant growth in order to tame inflation," said analysts
dj

The Netherlands Purk 09:20 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Took a short e/u again. For those who are shorting usd/cad. Put s/l at b/e now.

PAR 09:06 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
*DJ Germany's Ifo: Fincl Mkt Turbulences Didn't Play Large Role

warsaw TOMi 09:05 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
mad,
just left with 1/2 short eurchf with stop at entry 15929.

mad 09:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
warsaw TOMi ,

my cyber FX jedi, You are confusing all of us even more..... Make up your mind plse

LOL

warsaw TOMi 09:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
meant off short, got rid of 1/2 of short eurchf poss.

mad 09:00 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Syd

Perfect is the word 8-)

Maribor 08:58 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
EURCAD close to turn level 1,4846. Will USDCAD stop falling(for now) or will EURUSD rise(rhetorical question)?

warsaw TOMi 08:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
as usdchf is at double bottom here, looking for break down am taking 1/2 of short eurchf at 15893 dragging stop to entry.

gl/gt

Syd 08:56 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Banks pressed to bail-out bond insurers
By Ben White, Aline van Duyn and Francesco Guerrera in New YorkLeading US banks are under pressure from New York state’s insurance regulator to provide as much as $15bn to support struggling bond insurers, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday night.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/107a1c0c-c9eb-11dc-b5dc-000077b07658.html

MAD we have a wine Called Madfish perfect dont you think

PAR 08:56 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Societe Generale "Red, Black and Rising ". No just Red . lol.

mad 08:53 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Syd and debating which wine to drink as well.....

8--)

I also know that all of you people are aware that Spain has a general election in march.... So they better start sending some positive messages to the people, because estate wise it does not look to good at the moment...

But then again, where is Spain maybe for some of you ? LOL

Gen dk 08:51 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

mad 08:50 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Fukui and Japanese housewives must be finding sleep difficult to come bya the moment

I don t think FEd will cut rate next week.... I expect a big surprise, all they want really is markets to stabilize...

PAR 8-)

Syd 08:49 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ Spain Solbes: Debate In ECB Over Possible Rate Cut



PAR 08:47 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Soc Gen . Minor problem, just a local Nick Leeson who took a few wrong postions . Probably speculating on ECB rate cut . Lol.

German Ifo expected to show substantial improvement to above 105.00 . Hence the strong German stock market .

Syd 08:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ Forex Focus: The Yen Could Take Off Again
The low-yielding Japanese currency was already in most people's good books as risk aversion rose and carry trades were unwound earlier this year. Now, as emergency rate cuts from the Federal Reserve fail to remove worries about a U.S. recession; as global risk aversion shows little sign of abating; and Japanese investor appetite for hedging foreign assets becomes strong, the yen's rally may accelerate. Hans Redeker, head of foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London, said he doesn't believe that the current outperformance by low yielders is complete.
If anything, he suggests that the Fed's 75 basis point emergency rate cut on Tuesday has only made matters worse. "The fact that the Fed felt that such drastic action was required could add to concerns regarding the U.S. economy," Redeker said. Thus, he added, "volatility in asset and foreign exchange markets is expected to remain at elevated levels, which will also continue to be a negative factor for risk appetite, supporting the low yielders."
Investor reaction to the Fed's decision to cut interest rates was not only apparent in the lukewarm response by global equity markets but in the continued lack of investor appetite for higher risk, higher yielding currenciesSue Trinh, senior currency strategist RBC Capital Markets in Sydney, pointed to the failure of the Australian dollar to benefit from Tuesday's news that Australian inflation leapt up to 3.6% in the fourth quarter from 3.0% in the third. Although this has raised expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike its interest rates next month, the Australian dollar only staged a marginal bounce against its U.S. counterpart before turning down again. As Trinh noted: "There was a time when an (inflation) overshoot would have seen the Australian dollar up 100 pips in a heartbeat." The renewed interest in the yen was also apparent in its performance against the pound. "If we are looking for indicators of investor sentiment from within the currency markets, then sterling/yen is as good a measure as any," said Simon Derrick, a senior currency strategist with Bank of New York Mellon in London. Derrick said that although the pair staged a sharp rally in the immediate aftermath of the Fed's rate cut, this is already showing signs of faltering with the yen rising against the pound. "With a long term technical picture that indicates the pair have recently entered a substantial downtrend, this sounds like bad news," Derrick warned.
As far as technicals are concerned, the dollar's decline against the yen could also accelerate.
The line of least resistance for dollar bears is dollar/yen," said Steve Merrigan, currency technical analyst with The Royal Bank of Scotland in London.
He said that once the pair breaks under Y105.65, they will target Y104.70 on their way down to an even bigger target at Y102.00, an inter-year range low that has remained intact since 1999.
Analysts suggest that the yen may also attract fresh attention from Japanese investors, as they seek to protect themselves against adverse moves.
"The steepening of the U.S. yield curve will provide the yen with further support as the hedging of U.S. assets by Japanese investors becomes more attractive," said BNP Paribas' Redeker.
Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist with Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London, reports that "corporate flows indicate that Japanese exporters are eager to increase their hedge ratios on any rally in dollar/yen."
In other words, they will be buying yen on any weakness and any attempts by the pair to rise will quickly peter out. Early Thursday in Europe, the yen was getting fresh support both against the dollar and the euro on the latest concerns about financial markets in both the U.S. and the euro zone.

The Netherlands Purk 08:37 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
usd/jpy: range yesterday 240ish. Trip: 10737-10498. So watch the pattern because it is exactly the same only the numbers will change. Maybe i will short on rallies, and at bottoms i will reverse.
The hailing of usd/cad shorts turned out to be very good.

London Big Blind 08:32 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
reversed short eur/jpy, 155 a rejected the price , 155.77 is now a fair target, 154.80 stop

Syd 08:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ Italy Jan Consumer Confidence 102.2 Vs Dec 106.9

J'lem ML 08:25 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Hi all

Tip of the day-

SELL Gold around 895
Target by tomorr afternoon 850-860

g/luck!

Maribor 08:24 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Errata: 0,752-0,755.

Maribor 08:23 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Downmove in EURGBP should be fake...looking for 0,725-,755.

The Netherlands Purk 08:21 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 07:56 GMT January 24, 2008

I do not trade the beast BOB, read.
I am trading allright. Did you get the chance to build many shorts in usd/jpy. I closed at 10186. There is more to come but i am impatient with usd/cad as i lost a lot with longing tops.... I like shorts more in usd/cad now.

Maribor 08:17 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Well, I don't know about usual bank standards for traders, but I heard of trader's chief, who required that trader is profitable each day. Can anybody comment on this?

London Big Blind 08:12 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
short eur/jpy at 155.30 , stop 155.50 for 154.60 with concern about the 155 level

mad 08:11 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
“Whoever is careless with the truth in small matters cannot be trusted with the important matters.”

Albert Einstein

mad 08:07 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
i bet one big euro centimes that this guy at SocGen will open an hedge fund in the coming month in the Bahamas...

8-)

mad 08:06 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Don t trust anyone

LOL 8-)

mad 08:05 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Maribor, leverage could be one answer ...
8-)

Maribor 08:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
How the censored can somebody make 4 billion EUR loss? Must have 10 billion EUR positions?

mad 08:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Ben Bernanke fookie bear

http://www.flickr.com/photos/fintag/2212443594/

8-)

mad 08:01 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Helsinki iw

no, it is supposedly run by a bunch of , they say, elite people from the best schools in the world , like Citi, ML, MS, Westlb, UBS etc

lol

St. Annaland Bob 07:56 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Purk, I don't know what you mean with tonto and carrots ... but better for you you keep on making pips and will make a choice for showing respect to all (including WTF hourly as you name that guy) ... other wise, you will face bigger fears than you already have from GBP/JPY ... this is a friendly advise ... now, go and trade!

Helsinki iw 07:55 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
PAR, I guess SocGen is running a risk management system developed by Trichet at CL?

LJ BK 07:51 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asRrRCRQ724U&refer=home

PAR, was that you?

Syd 07:50 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Societe Generale reports $7.1 bln trading loss from "fraud
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/societe-generale-reports-trading-loss/story.aspx?guid=%7BF907FEF8%2D3175%2D481E%2DB66E%2D15CC7EE18BC0%7D&siteid=bnb

The Netherlands Purk 07:45 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Paris ib 06:57 GMT January 24, 2008

Ah there you are! I never trade the beast as you know. But i do trade cable these days. I like its patterns. Tonto is safe eating carrots that he gets from BOB...

The Netherlands Purk 07:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Closed one of the side possies in e/u just above 146 for the daily pips.
Building up shorts in usd/cad now. Told the FF that i was being hailed. Never know the top of course but we will see. Range is tightening.

warsaw TOMi 07:21 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
short eurchf 15929 sl 15969 tgt 15858.

Syd 07:20 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Conditions set for EUR/JPY to fall to 147 by end-March, writes BNP Paribas, far below its previous forecast for 153.00 (cross now at 155.45 on EBS). Despite hawkish Trichet, "speculation for an ECB cut is likely to intensify as the spillover effects from a US recession and asset market turbulence become more evident"; FX volatility likely to remain high, which makes carry trades unattractive. "With the 75-basis-point inter-meeting rate cut by the Fed appearing to have had little impact on stabilizing equity markets so far, we do not believe the current outperformance of the low yielders is complete
dow

mad 07:13 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Daily Pivot Points - Standard - 07:05 GMT
EUR/USD
R3 1.5006
R2 1.4825
R1 1.4727
P 1.4546
S1 1.4448
S2 1.4267
S3 1.4169


mad 07:08 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
* Japan PM Fukuda - Worried over current credit crunch, need for governments around world to take concerted action on money market instability - BBC News.

* Japan ruling LDP mulling measures to staunch further stock market falls including tax cuts, call for BoJ to revert to zero interest rate policy andestablishment of a sovereign wealth fund - Reuters.

Samurai Fukui and his legions of warriors are sharpening their Katana Swords

8-)

PAR 07:04 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Interesting anailsis of Harvard professor of differences between 2001 problems and 2008 . In 2001 Greenspan cut aggressively as Us inflation and commodity prices were very low . Now inflation and commodity prices are already very high. In 2001 US thanks to Clinton had big budget surplusses so fiscal stmulus makes sense . In 2008 the budget deficits are skyhigh due to the war in Iraq and Afganistan,and overspending by the Bush administration. , add to that retiring babyboomers . So fiscal stimuli as usual will mostly lead to a ballooning deficit . Have a nice day .

mad 07:03 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
have a gr8 day

8-)

sofia kaprikorn 07:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 05:51 GMT ......

hi - just checked.. as DJIA and S&P500 are rallying on pure speculation..

on Weekly chart they both made a Thrusting candle pattern > which points to further continuation..

this I guess is confirmed by the price in USDJPY / EURJPY / GBPJPY which hardly held their gains and start to reverse again to the downside....

mad 07:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
* NY Insurance regulator has held meeting with bond insurance counterparties and policyholders to pursue goals of market stability and possible future capital investment.

* IHT: The next worry: Unstable bond insurers. Even as U.S. stocks ended five days of losses with a surprising recovery on Wed, officials began moving to defuse another potential time bomb in the markets: the weakened condition of two large insurance companies that have guaranteed buyers against losses on more than $1 trillion of bonds.

* WSJ Fed Watcher Greg Ip: Fed is determined to front-load easing -- to deliver planned interest-rate relief sooner rather than later. Some see Fed easing 50bps, some 75bps at next week FOMC. Banks see rate falling to btw 2%- 2.25% this year.

* National Bureau of Statistics chief Xie Fuzhan says tightening measures will take time to show effect. Voices concern over US economy.

* LDP draft proposals hopes BoJ will introduce zero interest rates and quantitative easing. The government should also consider establishing a sovereign wealth fund - Reuters.

* French PM Francois Fillion, in FT, welcomes Fed's responsiveness, says ECB has same concerns as Fed. ECB will be wanting to take effective actions.

* PBoC sets USD/CNY mid-rate at new lows of 7.2295, with USD/CNY falling to fresh all time lows of 7.2235.

* USD/JPY rose on back of good buying by Japanese sec houses, Swiss and US names from 106.50, hitting stops above 106.80-85 but running into good offers ahead of 107. USD/JPY, Cross/ JPY then dipped, usual rumors of French banks suffering more write-downs, paying aggressively for short dated USD in Cash markets, German bank delaying Q4 results, questions over "US monoline bond rescue plan".

USD/JPY then recovered from 106.25 lows, on hopes of more Fed cuts (WSJ article), with Asian stock markets, Dow futures up. Talks of good USD/JPY bids at 106 lows, absorbing good selling from large German and US investment houses.Offers 107, stoploss on break of 107.20/ 50.

EUR off highs on UK clearer sales, from 1.4630-40 level, but running into good bids at 1.4600, focus on German IFO, with speculation of any ECB rate cuts (not likely) rumours. AUD, NZD, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY seeing 2-way interest, with Japanese, and US investment houses selling Kiwi on rallies, bu running into good bids at 0.7600-10, Cross/JPY now seen firmer as stocks recover, GBP/JPY up on back of Russians. East Germans buying.

Nikkei +2.06% or 263.72pts at 13,092.78. JGBs lower on back of firmer stocks. JGBs firmer on stock losses, 10-yr yield -0.050% at 1.315%.

Crude oil at $87.75, Gold $891.00/2.00, both off lows on stocks rally.

The Netherlands Purk 06:54 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Collaroy Plateau ARD 21:49 GMT January 23, 2008

Hola, long time no hear. Yes please do!
Well the beast is a dangerous one, it can take you on for a nice ride and back to censored in one tick... More into e/u and u/j these days. 10844 it is for now...
Welcome back Perrie, i see that you collected some more doom an gloom to get you busy with. Wonder where your smiles are...

mad 06:46 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I like the column of this guy. he is a bit like the PAR of this forum, and no offense PAR, the opposite in fact
8-)

Market Bloodbath Highlights Cracks in Capitalism: Mark Gilbert "Since its inception, the derivatives market has echoed the fairground hawker's call to ``scream if you want to go faster.'' Every time Microsoft Corp. upgraded its Excel spreadsheet software to accommodate more cells, rows and columns, the structured finance guys were able to graft yet more layers of complexity onto their products." Click here!

Syd 06:45 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY Risks Remain To Downside -BNP Paribas
USD/JPY rebound from 2.5-year low of 104.95 marked overnight is "temporary," says BNP Paribas; "we remain doubtful whether sentiment has turned around" with Fed rate cut no "quick fix" to subprime crisis. "We anticipate no near-term easing in credit lending standards," partly because "U.S. institutions have yet to realize all their off-balance sheet losses and, in this sense, further write-downs are expected." Support at 106.10, 105.60, 105.25; resistance at 107.40. Last at 106.58 dj.

mad 06:44 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
yes , my mistake , but still nowadays a lot of people are becoming parent in their latter ages..ie Rupprt Murdoch is a good example

LOL

USA BAY 06:40 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
mm
i think more like grand daughter and grandfather lol

mad 06:38 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
You can not even imagine 8-)

I think Warren and Gisele have a daughter -dad spiritual relationship

USA BAY 06:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
MM,

Must be a very big fan of gisele.... ;0)

mad 06:32 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
...and the swissy hardly moved yesterday...

hmmmmmmm something is brewing ... I can feel it

8-)

Syd 06:21 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Asia Thursday as speculation emerged that a possible plan to rescue troubled U.S. bond insurers could collapse.
Reports Wednesday that New York regulators are pushing U.S. banks to pump capital into beleaguered bond insurers soothed worries about the U.S. economy. Investors responded by taking back risk positions including U.S. stocks and bets for yen weakness overnight, lifting the dollar temporarily above Y107.00.
But the U.S. currency reversed course versus the yen in Asian hours as unconfirmed rumors spread across the region that the rescue plan has been abandoned, traders said. Suspicions that such a step would not work anyway have also hurt the dollar versus the yen, they said.

An exodus from risks helped the yen gain broadly. The euro fell four-fifths of a yen to Y155.27 before recovering to Y155.60. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, the British pound and the Swiss franc also declined against the yen. dowjones

mad 06:21 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
GM AND hello FX Jedi

8-)


PAR, i feel like Warren must have called Gisele for advice and she probaly told him, investin Swiss re rather than ambac and co..

8-)

PAR 06:17 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/24/business/24bonds.html?hp

Syd 06:14 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Deluge of defaults threatens UK banks
BANKS in Britain, after spending the past six months coping with the repercussions of the US housing bust, are facing a new challenge: a looming housing crunch at home.

After tripling in the past decade, house prices in Britain are slipping, contributing to rising consumer gloom and arousing fears Britain could be on the precipice of a crisis that would rival that of the US.

With payments on some 1.4million mortgages resetting to higher levels this year - up 52 per cent from 2007 - banks and mortgage lenders are likely to face rising defaults as heavily indebted homeowners run into trouble.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23092957-36375,00.html

Syd 05:53 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Some market talk that European banks may postpone release of earning reports due to damage from subprime fallout, says senior sales dealer at major Japan bank

Makassar Alimin 05:51 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
usd index looks heavy and starts turning down it seems, not so sure at this stage

Syd 05:51 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Players may pay attention to U.S. jobless claims due 1330 GMT, says JPMorgan Chase bank strategist Tohru Sasaki, because if result weaker than Dow Jones forecast of 320,000, USD/JPY may weaken. Notes data one of indicators which not "showing risk U.S. to enter recession. If the result turns out to be weaker than expected, that may increase players' concerns over a recession." If this happens, USD may also strengthen as players may buy U.S. Treasury - so crosses like AUD, NZD, EUR, GBP vs USD and JPY may be hurt the most. Tips USD/JPY in 104-108 range rest of week
dj.

Mumbai NS 05:40 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Usdjpy looks like poised for a short term reversal that can happen on yen crosses too gud trades glgt

GENEVA DS 05:34 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
zEUS.... think as usual that you are one of the only ones bullish long term USDJPY, guess you might be right once again... may be best bet in my view is to start buying CHFJPY... at 9760.... this cross has barely moved in this turmoil lately and swiss has really better fundamentals than japan... thanks for sharing your views... not a lot of people have ideas anymore in this market ... again as well there you are a contrarian... keep up your good work ... good luck to all

Syd 05:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
EU Report Warns UK Public Finances Seriously Deteriorating
The European Commission is the latest in a string of market observers to highlight the deteriorating state of the U.K. public finances.
In a regular assessment of European Union member states' adherence to budgetary rules Wednesday, the Commission said that U.K. public finances have "significantly deteriorated," and urged the U.K. government to "substantially improve" it's budget position. And in a darkening economic climate, the U.K. is likely to breach the E.U's budget deficit target - set at 3% of gross domestic product - in 2008, the Commission said.
The imminent economic slowdown reinforces the need for the U.K. government to restrain spending and tighten fiscal policy, the Commission said, especially as the U.K. government's projection of an economic pickup in 2009/10 is "optimistic."
The Commission's report comes in the same week as the Office for National Statistics showed the U.K. public sector again borrowed more than expected in December, leaving the government struggling to meet its 2007/08 fiscal targets.
The U.K. public sector borrowed GBP7.8 billion in December, above expectations for borrowing of GBP7.2 billion, the ONS said. The Commission is responsible for monitoring member states' adherence to budgetary rules. The U.K. Treasury made no immediate comment on the report.
dow

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:19 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quote from GV FX Research (free) write up:
"Where to Park Your Dollars During a Recession" Weds 23 Jan

"Yesterday, we said that Fed Fund futures are pricing in another 50bp rate cut on January 30th. Now, they are toying with the idea of a back to back three quarters of a point drop. When stocks were down as much as 300 points, the futures were pricing in a greater chance of a 75 versus 50bp rate cut. With stocks closing up 300 points, there is a 92 percent chance that we will see 50 versus 75bp of easing. One way or the other, another big move is expected. The Fed has already made their down payment, now the markets want them to choke up the full amount. Existing home sales, the only potentially market moving number on the US calendar is due for release tomorrow (24th). The housing market continues to be one of the most vulnerable sectors of the US economy. Therefore we do not expect the data to be dollar positive. "

OK, the above courtesy of GV's free services supports NY Rob's long of EUR/USD, it's reasonable ideas anyway. Charts are charts, econ is econ. Econ doesn't care about charts...econ moves the mkt. I've said it many times last year, USD is going to continue to get cheaper. Good tho...US EXPORTS will gain theoretically, trade deficit lessens, econ gets stronger for the yanks, recession fires quenched a little.

quito_ecuador_valdez 05:05 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I might add I don't trade any Latin stocks or FX. Yet. If some Chinese business starts spring up here I might. I stick with the main pairs only and I don't deal in equities any more at all and no ETFs (exchange traded funds) although my neighbor is a guru on it. To me higher risk is had in more obscure cncy's and borses. I do buy tax free Ecudor commercial paper occasionally but can make same interest on tax free "fondos" (funds) here with less risk and excellent liquidity. Basically I'm coffee, realestate spec and simple FX on a platform with healthily sized overtones in CDs in XYZ currencies depending on FX mkt. That way I gain interst plus FX offsets tax free. I maneuver into tax free zones exclusively in cash ops. (Ecuador's tax laws anyway LOL). So now you know the limit of my scope.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:53 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Lagos FxStallion 03:52 GMT January Excellent informational post Stallion.

Thoughts on swissy. Using day candle chart (then again um I like 10 year charts actually for really big picture views!) I see three unsuccessful deep punctures of 1.1000 meaning there is some strong support in those depths. And we're hovering again after ending a large bounce touchdown (Nov 21-Jan 16...again using daily candles). and now a smaller bounce (Jan 16-present). It's show time for swissy at the floor level and psychlogical level of 1.0800...lots of downward momentum stopped dead. So the chart isn't telling us any more. We have to look at how CHF and XAU have sucked in investors and how EUR and GBP vs CHF have failed in many months of running. It appears the world is uncertain, shaking its head and copping out for a safe house. Now this can sway up with SNB raising rates (that is something I am not going to speculate on here) OR sway down if USD springs a leak (again). Fed is expected to cut interest end of month at FOMC meeting, that may be therefore priced in mostly, some say 50% chance of .50 bp more cut. If that's the case and if SNB stays firm then swissy can easily descend past the psycho point of 1.08. If it does that then it's clear to fall further in agreeance with NY Rob's analysis of EUR/USD going to 1.50 (or beyond I'll add myself). But remember EUR has lost consistantly to CHF. USD has lost consistantly to CAD ukp til 1st week in Nov 07. We have to look beyond charts here and into global trade, demand for commods, commod based cncys etc.. g'night all...major coffee customer warrents major coffee roast tomorrow, have to have my wits or burnt up gormet coffee.

hk ooozmeeh 04:51 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS, SYD 4x1 in the past, yen staged a low in the month of January and reverses
1) January 1992 122.5 low
2) January 1999 108.58 low
3) January (Feb) 2000 101.23 low
4) January 2005 101.67 low
5) January 2008 104.96 ????? is this the low????
call it coincidence or not but the chart speaks for it self....
goood trades to u guys....

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Wellington, if I had a strong opinion on this I'd tell you but I don't. I don't have the inside knowledge or experience on that one. The shoulders you speak of, good observation/post. Technicals are one way to look at it but core information is additional icing on the cake we can't ignor and core info on MXN is what I don't have in Ecuador. I'll see if I can contact someone who might...will encourage him to post if he thinks he's got sound advice. I would like to see more Japanese & Latin professionals who would post actually...their points of view are valued. If cat fights would stop on this forum you'd see more pros posting. I also note an absence of German posters. Hint? Willkommen. ;^) GT Wellington.

Chuck

USA Zeus 04:19 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Syd 03:57 GMT January 24, 2008

Thx Syd. I agree with it. In a grand super cycle reversal, USD/JPY at these levels (9x-105) will be one of the steals of this century when looking back.

As always- Have a good one! :-)

Syd 03:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ INTERVIEW:Ex-Japan MOF Utsumi: Dollar Near Its Floor Vs Yen
Global market turmoil is likely to continue despite the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cuts, but it's wrong to assume that the yen could keep rising versus the dollar, said a former top Japanese currency official.

Amman wfakhoury 03:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
hk ab 23:26 GMT January 23, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 19:25 GMT January 23, 2008
20 spicy pips if we sell eur.jpy now at 154.22
=====
chk the chart again...i sold another at 154.60 and exited both at 154.20

Lagos FxStallion 03:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
At the start of Wednesday''s session, traders on the floor were saying that Tuesday''s decline wasn''t good enough, says Cantor Fitzgerald strategist Marc Pado.The four-year high in the VIX and the nine-year high in new lows simply didn''t represent panic. There''s no rule that says that every decline must end in capitulation, but traders have gotten used to it. It seems as though investors are all traders these days, never willing to look beyond the next week or few days. As the market fell, it was blamed on an absence of buyers and not a panic of sellers. Sure, we were likely seeing margin-call selling.There were reports that the carry-trade was also seeing some unwinding pressure, gratis the huge decline in the otherwise illiquid emerging markets. The talk of recession was being played out in every category. Crude fell to its lowest level since December and is just a few bucks a barrel away from the September ''07 high of $84 per barrel. The long-term uptrend in crude oil crosses at $82. That trend line stems from the January 2007 and August 2007 bottoms. It should represent significant technical support.The decline in crude from $100 to $88 has been blamed solely on the threat of a U.S. led economic recession. The panic in foreign markets, especially Asian, has been because of a potential US led economic recession. After a year of Europe saying that the U.S. economy doesn''t matter, it appears that they have caught cold after we sneezed.I just want to be sure that all this talk of a recession is the market''s view, and not mine. but the big picture for a recession was being driven by this lack of coordination between central banks. The credit crisis is a global problem, and the failure of the ECB to understand the severity of the situation stands in stark contrast to the U.S. central bank.All of the major averages, with the notable exception of the NDX, managed a major reversal day to the upside. The Dow actually fell short of undercutting the prior day''s low by 10 points, but the S&P exceeded the prior day''s intra-day low and high, closing near the high of the day. That is a significant technical reversal move. The advances posted an impressive intra-day reversal, something difficult to do when down 300 points early. Advances were 2360 to 853 declines on the NYSE. The NASDAQ was obviously a less impressive 18 to 12. Another stat that stuck out was that the Russell 2000 had wiped out all of 2007 and 2006''s performance. That''s not easy to do.Secondary and small cap stocks are the most sensitive to interest rates and the economy. They have higher betas and carry more risk. For that reason, investors have to have confidence to aggressively chase these stocks. The Russell surged 3.26 percent on the day. That is the best indication of this being a real turn on the day.

wellington am 03:47 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 03:20 GMT January 24, 2008

Valdez, good to see you back on the forum.

I'd welcome your thoughts on a short EUR/MXN position. Appreciate USD/MXN has not done much of late, but with the yield gap, and rising house prices/inflation ...

Technically there has been a failed double top with lower right shoulder.

Given your location, I wondered if you had an opinion on this.

thx.

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:20 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
By the way you might note EUR/USD has range traded since November 07 between 1.49xx (twice broken) and mid/low 1.43xx. It has enjoyed one Sine curve and is now half way through another. The question is what geopolitical or economic forces will come to pass that will bump the pair out of range. Herein lies reasons for trading this pair.

Now if you start listing these possible scenarios on a piece of paper, preferably in the trading log you probably don't have yet if you follow suit with the mainstream of so called traders, you'll soon have at least a base-foundation to start a trading plan on EUR/USD. With no plan you casino your FX account to smitherines eventually.

Only 1.5% of all who start live FX net money out of it. And everyone of course hopes they'll discover a holy grail at FX. Hope is a major reason people fail. Learning takes many years of dilligence..not a casual read of a generic gee whiz trading book sitting beside your bathroom throne with the magazines.

The main reason for failure is that wannabe traders refuse to take the time and trouble to RESEARCH a plan and stick to it yet maintain flexibility to watch and react but not knee jerk. Most wannabes feel compelled to trade rather than wait for an optimal circumstance that suits their risk level. Most don't even know what risk level tolerance is. Other resaons for doom are fear management, anger management, "getting even" with the market (grrrr!) or the cowboy: "I'll stick to my dam guns and maintain my #!*ing possie in front of the freight train no matter what" and they die a miserable death in FX.

Now this isn't a view or idea, it's fact. The more we trade IDEAS and reasons the better this forum will become. I am sure the founders of it will agree.

quito_ecuador_valdez 03:03 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Los Angeles - bernie 02:47 GMT January 24, 2008
What you "learn" is who to copy. That is not a basis for learning, that's doing it the easy way. I'm not insulting you by any means nor Rob but learning and trading is much different and yields much different results than copycat trades. If you want only to copy cat then allow a pro to trade your account for you while you do mini lots to have fun and practice and even copy. If you ask a pro, they NEVER copy, they think things through for THEMSELVES and yes not who's on top usually.

All I'm asking is that reasons, brief at the least, be given for trades. My example below is not "DEEP", it's brief and to the point. What is supposed to happen is someone with a brain fires up and either agrees giving OTHER reasons of course or disagrees citing a different set of reasons. THAT IS A FORUM not a bunch of chickens cackling.

Syd 02:57 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Talks between congressional Democratic and Republican leaders over the proposed economic stimulus plan are slated to resume at 7:30 a.m. EST Thursday. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, will meet with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in hopes of finalizing an agreement on the much anticipated package to stimulate the U.S. economy. dowjones

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:56 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Something like this.
EUR/USD:
Aug 16 spt line to Dec 19 dip didn't hold this week. The double top on dailies indicates 2nd top lower than first which has a propensity to indicate downward movement overall following the 2nd top.

Now if the chart goes against this post, it's not important. What IS important is that a technical reason was given instead of someone just saying short or long X pair. The forum used to be like my example post above and I've been absent all too long doing other things/business. It used to be a place to trade ideas, not trades themselves so much. With literally 1000s of GV forumsters I am sure most of them want strategy and reasons rather than "I done this" type of mindless posting. Most GVers just sit & lurk, never contribute anything but fortunately do absorb the advertising which pays for the site. I realize these are hard words but they're true and reality makes the trader, not ego or anger.

Now if this forum doesn't stop the "Dahh, I done this" posts and start using some reason behind the positions as I try to do always, it's not going to be worth anything to anyone other than entertainment for FX game practice (not live) accounts. I don't see many of the pros on this side any more that were here say 3 or 4 years ago and I suspect one reason is the chat room atmosphere that's evolved here. Fortunately there are some pros left and I thank them for their perserverance. I might add that if one subscribes to GVI they'll get a whole different "side" to trading. It's not expensive and eye opening to say the least.

Syd 02:52 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ China Govt Expects Continued Fast Domestic Economic Growth

Los Angeles - bernie 02:47 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Posting a trade, with or without a deep explanation is very helpful to me --- in a short time i learn who is a gifted, rigorous trader who can help me learn; there is room for economic discussion, of course, but theories are best when put to the practical test.

Rye, NY et 02:45 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
austin mw 02:31 GMT January 24, 2008
They may need it....Hope all is well with you....I think you posted that Twain quote a couple of years ago...Best of Trades....

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
"The Global-View website provides support via foreign exchange trading ideas, forex analysis, live..." I peeled this right off the home page of this web site. What makes this forum less than optimum is posts with no reasons backing them whatsoever. If you want a good forum, post some reasons. If you want a chat room, then don't. Frankly no one cares who trades what, a forum is an idea mill on which to consider for other points of view other than one's own. Got it?

austin mw 02:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Rye, best of luck to your Giants.. Feels to me that destiny may be on their side.
GL/GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:28 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Rob, anyone can call himself a trader. If you are a participant in an idea forum then you put forth ideas with reasons. Your post is useless.

NY Rob 02:25 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito, idea is just idea, i am a trader and i make money by trading the market, it is better to put into action what you see, good luck

singapore td 02:23 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
i think i agree with Rob, stox comeback and gold back at high are also supporting the idea of stronger euro and weaker usd

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:18 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Rob, for an idea forum your reply was mute. Thanks for nothing. Anyone can blurt out "do this do that", I figured you might be above that. Have a profitable time...

Rye, NY et 02:16 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
"History does not repeat; it rhymes"...Mark Twain

NY Rob 02:14 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito, it is all in the chart, keep it simple i dont want to complicate with over analysis, euro should not see under 1.4530 anymore from here or else we put into question the set up

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:04 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Tks Rob, much appreciated. Can you give some support to your idea so we can all learn from it? I have no support for the point I made other than past propensities. And again what was good 4-6 years back isn't necessarily applicable today. Thanks, Chuck.

Syd 02:04 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
China Dec CPI Up 6.5% On Yr; Expected Up 6.4%

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:02 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
I guess what I'm trying to say is that typically on large multi month double tops there is a propensity (not a law) that the chart will dive lower than the middle dip of the double top meaning if that's the case with this double top then we'd expect 1.43 and lower. In the past double tops such as these exhibited a faster fall on the right side than rise on the left side. Now past charts don't make a hoot necessarily in this turbid FX climate and technicals look at only half of the story. Since we're batting ideas around I'd like some feedback from the oldies and Rob on this matter of EUR/USD. I'm not stuck on the above opinion, just pointing out something that in the past 4 or 5 years ago, worked. Tks in advance, GL.

NY Rob 01:59 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:43 GMT January 24, 2008

there is almost always double top/bottom, unreliable to bet on one, even if there is one we won't know for sure until it is confirmed, by that time it is too late

my bet is 1.48-1.49 if not higher into 1.51 region straight from here

Syd 01:43 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Dow Jones AUD/USD Could Break 0.8750 In Europe - OzForex

AUD/USD could push above 0.8750 in European trade if European share markets take firm leads from Wall Street, Asia, says OzForex corporate dealer Alex Nicholas. Expect bid tone to persist in lead-up to RBA's February 5 rate decision, pending equities market activity remains relatively stable; adds "yesterday's CPI data certainly firmed the argument for a rate hike" but financial market conditions mean AUD/USD unlikely to make "any bold moves". Risk aversion easing slightly. Broad 0.8650-0.8900 range likely until RBA decision.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:43 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Rob, let me have your opinion on this pls. On the daily chart E/$ shows an immense (shall we say forboding?) double top yet this surge lately doesn't really to me correspond with a double top. What's your take on the above if you don't mind please? Other contributions to this "thread" would be appreciated. This so called double top has be a bit worried and I haven't placed any FX platform stuff of any volume lately because of it. Back 4 or 5 years ago I would have shorted on this chart for long term possie but now days, uh uh. Tks. chuck

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:38 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
In what country(s) Perry? And if you don't mind, what banks. I suspected this for some time but haven't dug..perhaps afraid to. We use banks a lot actually, care to write something up for GV and post it? If not I'd sure like an email, check w/ Jay pls. Tks in advance amigo.

NY Rob 01:36 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
now that euro is back above 1.46, it is time to buy big for 1.48-1.49, stop under 1.4530

Como Perrie 01:35 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
basically what hey say is hidden losses are huge and hidden now some years...hugo corruption and malaffair

Como Perrie 01:34 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Am currently reading some many investigations about managers frauds are going on into several banks currently.

More to come

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:31 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Well, been lookin' around the charts on majors vs XAU & CHF. About the same time last June things started to pop on the CHF pairs & XAU. It draws us to believe that safe havens are seen in XAU and CHF & are being sought with voracious appitites, 1000s of pips since June can't be anything but. When I bought CHF at 1.24xx (way before last June) with USD cash the family had laying around here & there, frankly I didn't know how far USD would tank (or the rest vs CHF either!) so I just kept that CHF - in the form of interest bearing CD. I could have done XAU and made more profit but being conservative I didn't. So since then I've made the difference (or protected my assets even vs. GBP & EUR which I turned down in favor of CHF) & good I did as GBP AND EUR both plunged drastically vs CHF in that time period...1000s of pips. So go figure, I've made 1.24xx - 1.09xx = about 1,500 pips on the deal, not counting interest on CD. Yes there were other options, just explaining ours. So it goes to show you that not all $$ are made scalping. Let's say $100k was invested, that means $15k of profit vs USD (& it would have been good also vs GBP + EUR). I don't actually count it as profit however, it's hedge to protect the family's cash asset's purchasing power. Now we can purchase 15% more realestate or whatever + CD interest. I got a loud applaud last family meeting (and a free supper at the restaurant of my choice) for that + some realestate deals I provided. Always pays to diversify you know, FX is OK but there's other fish in the water. We still have the CHF CD, likely won't cash it in soon, it's paid for & doesn't eat much.

Chuck

USA Skeptic 01:25 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Ah yes, and JPN is such a booming economy so it obviously will take up the slack and like the EU, CHN will be unfazed by whatever calamities befall the US.

Como Perrie 01:18 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Reuters showing China replaced US as Japan's biggest export market...

Guess tomorrow US how takes upon It

Como Perrie 01:15 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
no one curious about japanese CPI here onto the forum..just spices no meat?

USA BAY 00:44 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
LONDON GOONER,

HI, A few months back you were predicting the 205 and then the 194 level for gbp/jpy, could you kindly comment a suitable entry fpr a gbp/jpy long position. tia

Syd 00:12 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
U.S. slowdown will mean more headline slowing in China this year, but won't be major impact on domestic economy, says UBS. Historically, "China has never been 'coupled' with the U.S. A better question is whether the economy is getting more exposed over time. Our answer is 'a bit' - but not enough to change the fundamental conclusion that it will still be well insulated at home in a U.S. recession scenario."
dowjones

Gen dk 00:10 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 00:09 GMT January 24, 2008 Reply   
DJ Nikkei 225 Stock Average Up More Than 2%

 




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