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Forex Forum Archive for 01/25/2008

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Cbj Jake 21:46 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus - Being positioned and let the mkt give you the opportunities

Well said Zeus. To be able to articulate clearly what you are actually doing keeps you well disciplined and aggressive - even when nothing is happening, like a tiger waiting all day for a moment to occur without sentimentality or whining. You said it so well and great to be reminded of it.

masses = mAsses: you outdo yourself - can't stop laughing!

Gen dk 21:00 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 19:34 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

HI AHE, Could you share your view on gbp/jpy at current levels pls and have a great weekend. tia

Mtl JP 19:24 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
dc CB 18:30 / the issue is not about something called sub-prime. It is about about an iceberg of what is probably 2 or 3 trillion of bond losses. Not some piddly 2,3 or 7 billion here and there. (only 150-200 or 10% showing so far)

note: in US a trillion is a thousand billion.

Amman wfakhoury 19:19 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
LAGOS 19:02 GMT January 25, 2008
Hello,

Am new
===Lagos ..you are new..others are used..ha ha

US SW 19:15 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Don't mean to take upp space here...but here is a example of a good trade...I just shorted 2 lots of the euro/jpy....i will buy them back around 15644 and forget about it...I also put a stop in @ 157.10....HAVE A GOOD WEEKEND EVERYONE

US SW 19:12 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Biggest mistakes of most new traders that want to trade daily...they buy low and try to sell higher...when they should buy high and sell higher...thats my best advice...GL

US SW 19:09 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
LAGOS 19:02 GMT January 25, 2008
Hello, Just a suggestion...start paying attention to enconmic data...start a practice account...try several strategys...and be disoplined...Hope this helps.

Paris SocGen 19:06 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Lagos

Rally up all your crooks and friends in Nigeria . Put yourself in a room and rob from each other . That way you can keep off the Forum.

US SW 19:04 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
U WANT TO LOSE MONEY ....OPEN A ACCOUNT WITHOUT 5 YEARS OF EXPERIENCE THEE END>

LAGOS 19:02 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Hello,

Am new to forex trading, i have so much interest in it,can any body here teach me how to trade on forex and earn good money online?

I hope to hear from any member of the forum.

Thanks.

Paul.

US SW 18:56 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Warning....the EUROYEN ABOUT TO DROPP HARD IMO IMO

US SW 18:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
NOW WE START TO UNLOAD EUROYEN>>>BANG BANG

US SW 18:47 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
My strategy is very simple.....POINT AND SHOOT....RELOAD AND SHOOT....

Amman wfakhoury 18:44 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:26 GMT January 25, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 08:07 GMT January 25, 2008

=========
EUR/JPY
====
heading 159.40 now it is 158.90
===
99.90 % sure signal.BUY BUY another if decline
=====
reverse levels 158.38 and 158.08 sell level 157.89 ..act accordingly.

======
the lesson which should be taken from this signal.
is the sure degree in any stage of the trading.
first I start sure that the price will hit 159.40 buy it reverse
and hit the sell level. accordingly I used the second sure
that the price must reach 156.00..
i made double hedge according that sure..and if I wait till reach 156.00 my trade will make good profit.

dc CB 18:30 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
AMBAC Fincl: CNBC commentator discusses Wilbur Ross potentially buying ABK (11.95 +0.62)

CNBC says NY state superintendent Dinallo asked banks to come up with "some ideas." Firms were so unimpressed with Dinallo they suggested he get an outside advisor. Commentator says C appeared to be the most in favor of a bailout; MER a close second... also says banks now believe they don't have enough time, because they believe the rating agency action is imminent.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Follow up on S&P ratings cut of subprime RMBS deals.
As mentioned at 12:44, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its ratings on 93 classes of mortgage pass-through certificates from 35 different U.S. subprime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions from nine issuers. briefing.com
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Look out below :( :( :(

The Netherlands Purk 18:24 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Gezond 2008 MAXXIM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YVR MAXXIM 18:23 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
."Structured finance" mine is closed power is out iNveST is a secret Munk?

Mtl JP 18:19 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
MNB 18:08 / 1) get real about legal protection: none that is practical (99.9999% sure it is in the fine print)
2) the measures is due diligence. suggest to contact [email protected]

PAR 18:16 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
I am off. Have a nice weekend and lets see what Fukui and Xiaochuan say over the weekend.

HK Kevin 18:14 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Closed half short Cable from 1.9841 at 1.9778 earlier.

MNB 18:08 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
The trading platform i'm using is becoming a real pain, constant log in problems, and hard to reach dealing desk either by phone or online chat additionally server hiccups that cost me positional disadvantage.What form of protection does a trader have legally if the Forex companies system crashes out and causes auto liquiadtion of your positions. What are the measures that prevent first of all the company from causing this problem???

Amman wfakhoury 18:04 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 16:03 GMT January 25, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 16:00 GMT January 25, 2008
my two positions eur.jpy hedged twice.
@157.86


=====
exited all position @ 156.70

The Netherlands Purk 18:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Ah yes, half of shorts e/u closed now. Pattern in patterns clear now...

saopaulo cg 18:01 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
usdjpy looks very nice to go at least to 106.... it will be ok if dow doesn t come back

saopaulo cg 17:57 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
unwind is back again....

LONDON Add 17:55 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Could anyone explain how the risk reversal is derived from the comparison of Implied volatilities of the similar puts and calls. HAvind said that I don't fully understand how this 4.55 quoted and is it in % terms or anything else an finally how can this help me in trading dicisions1 Year 25 Delta USD/JPY risk reversal was recently given at 4.55 JPY calls.

Stockholm za 17:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
[ Stockholm za 19:23 GMT November 1, 2007
fwiw..
Trading ideas for all newbie’s ?? … Try this one…
Go long GVI/GVFF at this point with stop lost at $z.

“””””””””””””””””””””
We Locking in some profit on this trade & moving our stop lost on CT Cris.
Happy trading..

“”””””””””””””””””””””””]
It is very funny how things work out. That you guys start the bashment thing
with Amman wfakhoury, which is the same guy that introduce the 20 pip + spice pip theory nonsense under the name “CT Cris” . Which was used to dismantle the GVFF over the last few months…
we are still maintaining the long position with the above trade, but have now move our stop lost on the “ I Told You So Crew “ Happy trading……….

Hasselt Red 17:45 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
MLT PA, thank you

PAR 17:45 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSL2563707320080125

MLT PA 17:43 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Hedge strategies in Forex markers have two main categories. Homo Pairs Hedge Strategy (HoPHS) and Hetero Pairs Hedge Strategy (HePHS).

HoPHS
In this strategy trader go long and short at the same time with the same Lot on ONE currency such as GBP/USD and closes one position in profit and waits till the other position turn to profit. This case has more risk because in particular period of time you are in none hedge condition and it could be speculation strategy at last.

HePHS
In this strategy traders open pair positions in several currencies, long and short in direct currencies and long and long or short and short in indirect currencies. For example GBP/USD long & EUR/USD short at the same time and same lot size. The Sum of the P/L of these two positions changes and when the total Sum of these two pairs reach to a specific profit, trader closes both positions at the same time. So
in this strategy positions are always in hedge condition and have very low risk than other cases.

USA Zeus 17:37 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
mad 17:09 GMT January 25, 2008
"...If you come into trading with the idea of making "big money," you are doomed. This mindset is responsible for most accounts being blown out..."

Respectfully disagree. Lack of proper money management, position sizing and discipline in using a winning strategy imo is the blow out cause forthe mAsses.

Making big money is simply a function of being positioned to take what the market gives when it offers it. A trader doesn't make big opportunities. The market does.

GT!

Hasselt Red 17:32 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
US SW, once bought eurusd against usdchf. Don't know if that can be called hedging but made scalp size profits.
Would be curious to know if anybody has done this repeatedly and made consistent profits....

US SW 17:23 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
mad 17:16 GMT January 25, 2008

thx madman

mad 17:20 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
US SW 17:10 GMT January 25, 2008

iMHO, it can, but it is difficult and stressfull.

i find very difficult to scalp with the mouse.
On nasdaq and level2 it is simpler and faster.

In fx, you need a bit more patience.

Again this is only my opinion and small experience

8-) This is why it is very important to find a system that fits you and your personality.

8-)

mad 17:16 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Hedging Strategy Click here!

it is not the holy grail ! But it is one of many strategies for example.

Another strategy is to use correlated pairs for example.

It is not the strategy that makes the money, it is the trader that use it. You will be surprised that with one similar strategy, 2 traders can have quite opposite results.

Emotions, patience, etc come into play big time


You can open 2 platforms , but i know 1 platform where you can hedge on the same ac.

USA Zeus 17:14 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Does anyone ever hedge to protect their gains on a counter trend move or does everyone else just hedge to lock in huge losses like amman? TIA

US SW 17:10 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
mad 17:09 GMT January 25, 2008

thx

does it work well scalping?

USA Zeus 17:10 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
US SW 17:05 GMT January 25, 2008
You must be a mind reader. Was waiting for someone as sharp as you to drop that subtle hint.

G/W/E

mad 17:09 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
it is a bit like insurance really....

you pay car insurance but you might never need it.
However if 1 day you have an accident, you are happy to have it 8-)

Shangai bc defined quite well a little while ago with his gold strategy..
You do not hedge to make money per se.
You hedge to limit your losses most of the time.

8-)

If you come into trading with the idea of making "big money," you are doomed. This mindset is responsible for most accounts being blown out.

have a gr8 we and may the force be with you al

gl/gt
ps - markets feed on fear, greed, Gisele and rumors

8-)

US SW 17:05 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
do any of you use 2 account to hedge your pairs or box them in??? thax in advance

mad 16:54 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
NYC ET 16:10 GMT January 25, 2008

yes....and no ....8-)

you can hedge partially
8-)

Hedge could be used to limit your losses

Ask Jerome, Nick and others , they could tell you 1 or 2 things about it !!

LOL

US SW 16:53 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
now have my TS on the Cable...gl everone seeyanext week

HK Kevin 16:51 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
It should read "If GBP/JPY trade below 211.80, it will put pressure on the downside of GBP/USD."

HK Kevin 16:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
If GBP/JPY trade below 121.80, it will put pressure on the downside of GBP/USD.

The Netherlands Purk 16:44 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
I guess e/u will close near the lows of the day. I will close half of my shorts there, and take better possies next week.
Have a nice weekend.

KL FS 16:43 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
audusd is well bid despite usd strength against others (euro, gbp)

something to take note for today

Makassar Alimin 16:39 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
London Carl 16:31 GMT January 25, 2008

there is always a bright side in every situation in life :) be grateful to have him here, if you think his calls are wrong then can always use it as contra indicator i.e. do the opposite :)

US SW 16:34 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
I getting impatient with the GBPUSD....now I know will see 30 more pips...just like clock work

London Carl 16:31 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Well, its interesting that the one trade where we get to see Amman's calls without the confusing language, and in close to real time, proves to be a disasterous call.

While it is only 1 trade - it just proves how many of his so called other winners, were in fact, probable losers.

I wish you all a safe and good weekend

London J A 16:31 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Hi All, My first post here and just to say hi. Am very vanilla to forex trading so studying intensely at the moment. Found some great sites so far such as babypips and investopedia.

Como Perrie 16:31 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
get a life It's w/e


happy one you guys

NYC NYC 3 16:31 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
think of Belgium mentality, think of the lack of opportunity to'
do any economically viable lending in a socialisticenviorn,
and

what do you think will out?

desperate euro nbanks buying low grade US mortgages in USDs, at barely above treasury rates =s disaster.

HK Kevin 16:30 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Paris ib 16:18 GMT, I think Cable has seen today's high. Of course, I may be wrong and it did yesterday. Watch EUR/GBP 7410 support and GBP/JPY 214 resistance. As Shanghai bc said, the essence of trading is money managment.

The Netherlands Purk 16:22 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Paris ib 16:18 GMT January 25, 2008

Profittaking? LOL. and that on my birthday...

Maribor 16:19 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
PAR 16:11 GMT January 25, 2008

Would become interesting if masses want to get their cash out of otherwise relatively healthy bank...feels like that will also happen somewhere in bear times...

Paris Hilton 16:18 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:10 GMT January 25, 2008
GBP touch 1.9878 today? Do you think GBP is finished the downtrend and turning upside to 2.00?

Helsinki iw 16:15 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
In your opinion PAR, would that mean that Trichet will need to raise rates?

London ADK 16:14 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Which ones Par

PAR 16:11 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Rumors of more Europeans banks in problems . This time in the Netherlands and Belgium .

HK Kevin 16:10 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
So many people taklking about Cable. I have short at 1.9840 and covered at 1.9878 for some profit to compensate my 32 pips loss on short EUR yesterday.
Follow USA Zeus to short again at 1.9842 earlier with stop above today's high. I expect the pair will fall to at least 1.9740. If it close below 1.9760 today, it may fall back to 1.96 level over the coming days which will not damage its current uptrend. So be nimble and watch for close level to decide next action.

NYC ET 16:10 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Hedging is some gimmick created for the retail market and all it does is lock in loss. You never have to say you lost because you call it a hedge. It is a crutch and when you are hedged you have no position so either you locked in a loss or a profit.

US SW 16:08 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
why would you hold a postion over the weekend...anything could happen man....just square upp and trade another day...ok

london carl 16:05 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
amman-really dont understand the way you are playing this.
You had a chance to come out of this trade - even with a small profit.

Now you have locked in loss with the hedge - and when do you release the hedge?

US stocks are looking soft, which would make xxYEN pairs fall.

Not a good trade to be in over the weekend - good luck

Helsinki iw 16:05 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Bing told rumors around of imminent hedge fund failure. Anybody here know whether the object of the rumors has been named?

Amman wfakhoury 16:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 16:00 GMT January 25, 2008
my two positions eur.jpy hedged twice.
@157.86

US SW 16:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
still hanging in there...but needed a bandaid

Amman wfakhoury 16:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 16:00 GMT January 25, 2008
my two positions eur.jpy hedged [email protected] 167.86

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:01 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Ok, mkt sleeping-dormido.

See my Help Forum post for analysis + ans to questions below ref: non FX inquiry: me-qindex-archeology etc..
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:30 GMT January 25, 2008
Jay, can you post Dr. Qindex's personal URL or can Dr. Q please, to connect face w/ posts? My FX blog died - neglect -will get it back & w/important links. Will be tied down w/construction project soon however.

Moscow Mish's FX blog worth a read, no we can't give private FX URLs on FF. Will have it on my blog to be announced w/Jay's permission.

Newer traders: see daily chart EUR/USD, draw spt & res lines on last few month's tops/dips, note pennant, its orientation, where it crosses (take note of congestion levels).

Also for newer traders: Tech research "homework assignment" during weekend doldrums: some key major pairs due to break out of their confines (pennants & channels) March-Aprilish. Do your spt.-res. line drawing. It's for scalpers too...scalping against trend increases risk considerably. If U scalp WITH trend, & it moves against U, keep it anyway & be patient a few das, it'll go your way (following trend eventually) & you don't lose in long run...rule of the jungle #1: "DO NOT LOSE BY SCALPING AGAINST TREND". Will give you practice w/ control. Even scalpers should view trends for this reason. Scalping OK if U don't stand in front of the freight train going against the grain. Adios, enjoy a fine W.E.

~~~~Chuckster~~~~

Amman wfakhoury 16:00 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
my two positions eur.jpy hedged twice.

USA Zeus 15:58 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Ok- Have a great w/e all.
Z out.

USA Zeus 15:57 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
NYC 15:54 GMT January 25, 2008

Yes your level was close enough.


USA Zeus 15:55 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
LA Roscoe 15:50 GMT January 25, 2008

USA Zeus 19:09 GMT January 24, 2008
This trader Joe added some more shorts-
EUR/USD 1.4778.

This could turn out to be some red hot chili peppers.
___________________________________________________
Too much happy medicine got your vision blurry again? LOL

NYC 15:54 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, yes asking where you lifted the hedge just now. I assume the hedge was long against your "core" short.

USA Zeus 15:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
US SW 15:48 GMT January 25, 2008

Thx! :-)
GT to you as well! Looks like things are working out well.


NYC 15:48 GMT January 25, 2008
Are you asking where I lifted the hedge?

LA Roscoe 15:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:19 GMT January 25, 2008
Keeping the EUR/USD short at the high of the day (1.4778).

The only "high of the day" you're keeping is the buzz you got from skipping your meds.

US SW 15:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
the CABLE IS GOING TO FALLL NOW...just want 30 spicy pips...like that Z mans says LOL

US SW 15:48 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:29 GMT January 25, 2008
sorry that was for you

NYC 15:48 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, if you lifted the hedge here, you are short at 1.9815???

US SW 15:48 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
nice trade....I took profit to early like alway.14723..CHEERS

USA Zeus 15:46 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
NYC 15:44 GMT January 25, 2008

Core short @ 2.1112

NYC 15:44 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, does that mean you are now short core cable?

US SW 15:44 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
will starting to build a long postion on the euroyen if it test 157.40

US SW 15:36 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
going short the cable.....looking for 30 pips

USA Zeus 15:35 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Must be those "red hot chili peppers." LOL

USA Zeus 15:32 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Hedge lifted on core GBP/USD shorts from the all time high.

US SW 15:30 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
that good be bad for NASDAQ if it imploeds

London NYAM 15:26 GMT January 25, 2008

USA Zeus 15:29 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Covered 1/2 of remaining EUR/USD short @ 1.4778 @ 1.4692
Holding last 1/4 @ b/e still.

USA Zeus 15:27 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Clipped out other 1/2 GBP/USD 1.9814

London NYAM 15:26 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
another bomb in beirut (ashrafia near the mall) 10 dead.

USA Zeus 15:26 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
US SW 15:23 GMT January 25, 2008

Thx SW- On it like a hawk along with other possies spread out. GT! :-)

mad 15:26 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
i wonder if 1.47000 will hold until next week.....

US SW 15:23 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:19 GMT January 25, 2008

watch the 14670 level clsly!

US SW 15:21 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
retrace seem to be the theem here boys

USA Zeus 15:19 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Keeping the EUR/USD short at the high of the day (1.4778). Feel like the luckiest trader Joe with that.

USA Zeus 15:16 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Clipped out and covered GBP/USD 1.9821

mad 15:13 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
thx

US SW 15:12 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
eurofrank holding upp euroyen eggy and risky trades here

Mtl JP 15:12 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
in AZ

mad 15:11 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
where in the US plse ?

mad 15:10 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
don t trust anybody but yourself ...and Gisele !!!

LOL
8-)

Mtl JP 15:09 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
mad 15:08 / in the US, feb 03

mad 15:08 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
PAR , it was given by the same companies that gave SIV, CDOs a "wonderful" grade

LOL

8-)

By the way when and where is the superbowl this year plse ? Thx in advance

USA Zeus 15:08 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
PAR 15:03 GMT January 25, 2008

Same reason my shiny new Bugatti Veyron is not worthless just because it is broken due to one of four faulty turbos.

Mtl JP 15:07 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
PAR 14:50 / USD debasement is guaranteed: the FED will not get disbanded, US will not go to competing ccies (or Honest Money - i.e. Gold) and it will not close all its 800 or so foreign military bases in foreign lands.

mad 15:06 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
UK JS 14:44 GMT January 25, 2008

sorry, this should work Click here!

mad 15:05 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
UK JS 14:44 GMT January 25, 2008

Try Click here!

PAR 15:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
If broke how coes Us bonds get AAA.

USA Zeus 15:01 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
PAR 14:50 GMT January 25, 2008

Washington is broken. There is only one candidate who can fix it. A proven business leader who does not have Washington in their core.

London NYAM 14:56 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman//Yencrosses waiting for breakout direction via or with (depending on your perspective) the equities. Dollar is showing weakness though.

Mtl JP 14:55 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
UK JS 14:44 / just couple clicks away:
menu at top of screen: Tools > FX Data -> FX Data base. Even auto-launches and loads data into your excel, where u can plot it as u think you need to see it.

USA Zeus 14:55 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Sold another GBP/USD 1.9846

Amman wfakhoury 14:53 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
it seems that the charts system is out of use as all pairs moving within 5 pips since 30 mins.

Hasselt Red 14:53 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:19 GMT January 25, 2008

-What's needed at FF-haus is more top level info, less BS, less chatroom tantrums. -

i hope that's not your way to say others shouldn't post to learn as they go along.... Nothing wrong with stepping down and responding in a constructive way, or are we going to cathegorize people?

USA Zeus 14:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
It has been one censored of a week. On Monday, stock markets everywhere were crashing by
3-7% (India, 11%). Then the US rode to the rescue, On Tuesday we got a 75 bp rate cut and promises
of more to come. By Thursday we had the US government committing to a $150 billion stimulus package. In-between, we had a massive trader fraud at a French bank, a new record high in gold (due to a supply constraint but never mind), and Europeans selfishly insisting that price stability is the only thing they care about. FT columnist Martin Wolf says the BoE shouldn’t cut by more than 25 bp in early Feb because the US is taking the lead to stabilize global markets and that’s what it’s supposed to do, and besides, it’s
working.

During the week we went from severe risk aversion that saw the further unwinding of carry trades to a resumption of risk appetite that saw some currencies break out to the upside, like the Canadian dollar yesterday. If this whole thing is a reversal, it’s one of the fastest we have ever seen. Technology was always supposed to deliver results like this, but you’d think that human wiring would not be quite so
quickly adaptive—and we remain a little skeptical that the whole thing can be over so fast.

Besides, we still have real economic data and it can’t be ignored forever. For example, Canadian CPI (ex-gasoline) fell 0.3% in Dec when a rise of 0.1% was forecast. The Bank of Canada said yesterday that inflation will fall to 1.4% in Q2 (much less than forecast only a few months ago) while GDP will also slow to 1.8%. The rate cut at the next policy meeting (March 4) is practically a sure thing now. Sure
enough, the CAD softened a bit this morning. So do we buy the CAD on the resumption of risk appetite or sell it because the Canadian economy is weakening and rates are falling, and in either case, against which currency?

The fate of the dollar seems linked to confidence in financial institutions and governments, and to stock market behavior. This correlation occurs only in times of extreme stress. The FX market can go for months on end with barely a glance at stocks except insofar as they reflect interest rate expectations. Are we going back to the status quo ante, a falling dollar on rate cut expectations that is permitted because safe haven flows to the dollar are no longer needed? This is certainly the view of folks like Mr. Soros and others at
Davos, who are convinced of a recession and ever-dropping dollar as a result. The IMF publishes its World Economic Outlook today and we have been led to believe it will say “no recession” and “soft landing.” The disconnect between the views of big names like Soros and the actual data is jarring. It
makes us uncomfortable buying into the conventional wisdom scenario. We await another shoe to drop.
Dropping shoes are dollar-favorable… but you can’t build a trading or hedging plan on the potential for some catastrophe to come along. On the whole, we think the world loves risk. It makes money on risk. It’s early days, but it looks like risk is back.

PAR 14:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Has somebody in USA already calculated the combined impact on the budget deficit of ,the slowing economy, the fiscal stimulus package, the bank write downs, the lower house prices, the tax deductible hybrid securities all Us banks are issuing, retiring baby boomers claiming pension payments , cost of war etc . I think the next Us president is facing an extemely difficult budgettary situation as in Italia .

USA Zeus 14:45 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 3.640% at 3 pm from 3.425% the day before on a broad sell-off prompted by equity market gains and the stimulus package. This morning the 10-year yield is 3.68%. One analyst calls it a “key reversal” but we would withhold judgment on that. Market News reports that Treasuries were also pressured by new supply—Monday’s auction of $24 billion in 2-years and Tuesday’s auction of $14 billion in 5-years. Separately, the Treasury auctioned $8 billion in 20-year TIPS and it was well-bid with a 53.1% indirect bid, implying foreigners. The “high yield” is 1.807%, suggesting not a lot of fear of rising inflation.


Market News reports that the German Bund yield, after falling to 3.78% on Tuesday (the lowest since Dec
2006) recovered to as much as 4.05% during the morning session today before falling back to 4.01%. That
puts the spread with the US Treasury at 33 bp against the US.

UK JS 14:44 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Anybody know where I can find a daily currency chart showing GBP/EUR as opposed to EUR/GBP?

USA Zeus 14:32 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:50 GMT January 25, 2008

Hi Chuck. Well just pulling the handle on the fx slot machine to see what happens on another "Pro's vs Joe's" trade. May add a bit at a higher level but wanted in on some early.

US SW 14:30 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
K or what was that

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:19 GMT January 25, 2008

London NYAM 14:26 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Valdez//Quindex ...Fellow archaeologist?! Is that a metaphor are you two seriously ex-diggers?

US SW 14:26 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
anyone building a postion in the eurojpy today....long or short?

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:19 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Perk amigo tks, I do long posts as mkt sleeps before NY or London opens because (FF should want reasons, not trading history yellow stickups) or if I have relevant stuff in brief or when FF itself sleeps. Never to offend, always honest -direct. Real FF is tough FX troops not kindergarten. Trading times i.e. NY or London open or data times I back off...usually post PM EST after NY close. Took sebatical for highend gormet coffee biz but will re-establish connection(s) w/ Asian amigos, Chinese big trader, middle Europe CB ties -done easily if still "online". Once done will post that (BS filtered) info. What's needed at FF-haus is more top level info, less BS, less chatroom tantrums. bobl, Martin, bc + "other" key Hong Kong-ers, we'd be honored w/ more participation. Qindex, THANK YOU always, most learned master & fellow archeologist, for your kind input.

~~~~Gooday~~~~

PAR 14:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Geneva / How big do you think US gold reserves are and the profit in Us dollar is even bigger than in CHF .

The Netherlands Purk 14:00 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Hello Chuck!
Well it s always nice to see that you still have those long posts. Wish Delboy was here as well.

Have a good time in the sun!

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:55 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Purk: gud 2 C U. ;^) I hear ya.

The Netherlands Purk 13:54 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Closed more of possies that i did not post, so i will not post that i closed them after the fact.
Descent bounce on gbp there, wont touch it for a while. Somebody hailed me to short the beast at 210. It was the 4th hailing of that person, and if i followed the calls my account would have been wiped out long ago.
I salute USA, PARIS ib, LONDON and London & london.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:53 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Russian Federation also. Maybe more than Swiss.

GENEVA DS 13:51 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
http://de.bluewin.ch/news/index.php/wirtschaft/news/20080125:brd008

If you are a Bank, not in Subprime, but long Gold.... you make huge profits.... HAHAH.... it is the Swiss National Bank... good job...

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, mind telling us he reason behind your possie? GT, tks in advance.

USA Zeus 13:46 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Short GBP/USD 1.9831

HK [email protected] 13:44 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:11 GMT January 25, 2008

Now gents. I'd appreciate some comment pro-con on text below:
EUR-USD tech.: Spt & Res lines cross in this range adnauseum trade since Sep 07 @ a point located 1.4870, the tru Res test to see if the pair has strength for 1.50+ or not.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Psychologically fear and greed can creat waves and shocks, so it all depends on what time frame are you looking, so to overcome those waves and ripples, you must look on the TECH. so from the medium to long term the Euro will have to hit ~1.5130. It all depends what strength of a shock a trader is ready to recieve and survive, or in othr way, what time frame is the trader prepare to endure.
The chart structures for euro on different time frame are in full support for the target above(and I dont care if Euro is overvalued to the taste of some), and the target if you remember I mentioned 4 years ago.
So if you can absorb the fluctuations just put it all on auto-pilot and go to play golf.

Hasselt Red 13:41 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:11 GMT January 25

i think the ecb will have to admit the risks are too high at the moment and pressure is seriously mounting to cut rates. i dont see another explenation for the eurusd drop after the last fed rate cut.
Wether the fed will cut rates themselves or not it's probably already calculated in current price moves. Rates don't seem to matter anymore.

TA: there's a SHS pattern followed by double top on dailies plus price still moving within traditional fibo range for yet another downturn. Add to that negative MACD/RSI divergence on hourly.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:35 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
We can speculate on Fed rate cut Jan 30 but best to keep trigger finger handy...speculation is coffee shop talk, mkt is mkt.

Note the common barriers on USD - dailies vs CHF, GBP, EUR. It's showtime for USD so something important is about to happen. Failure to puncture these barriers & proceed to new ground indicates to me a righteous reversal. Not saying it's gonna reverse...saying FAILURE indicates it tech wise.

Con:
Fundamentally tho, yes, USD's continued weakness driven by Fed cuts so if EU & Asia shouting epithets @ Fed: will it do any good or not regarding tgt overnight int. @ 2.0 or not. As to "tgt", Fed has never established a target...it's looking at data (it says), pundits established this tgt...know the difference.

MY INSTINCT says USD should continue down, stay at floor level (2-3 years range), rebound (has to - tactic wise), crash long term (2015-19). Many reasons..could write a book. "theory": USD will finally dissolve, EUR to be cncy of the Americas. I don't personally like it but my theory/fear. How to buy America cheap & eliminate FX altogether - crash cncy's, substitute "other" at 10cents on the $ or less. Not conspiracy, just the plan to one-world-cncy.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:18 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Tip on GV navigational "mechanics". Access other GV forums & not leave FF by right click on any link in the drop down navigation menus, then select/click Open In New Window or Open In New Tab.

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:11 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Mamood, Wf--khoury, respectfully, & respectively, please squabble in another venue.

Now gents. I'd appreciate some comment pro-con on text below:
EUR-USD tech.: Spt & Res lines cross in this range adnauseum trade since Sep 07 @ a point located 1.4870, the tru Res test to see if the pair has strength for 1.50+ or not.
Non tech.: Psycho barrier of 1.50 has been unsuccessfully tried 2x since last Fall..mkt unwilling to buy this pair @ more (or had we sly interventions??).. may see intervention however again frm Tokyo & Frankfurt. Note saber rattled before recently w/ no-show. Remember how ECB cried about 1.37, methinks "they're young, they'll get over it" & they did. Interesting show anyway..can't place more than scalps in this arena.

XAU: Mr. MTL = dead center yesterday saying "watch gold", implying indications for other USD pairs or possibly reflection of attitudes worldwide. I'll add:world nervous over instability in general + fear, world conflicts, poor harvests (food prices, inflation, cost of living), climate, bank shimmeys, lies at top level in financial & gov'mt blabla - no wonder Au = safehouse. At or after $1,000 XAU may sour or soar, ...I've no bias. Depends on how folks see world beyond $1000 Please post your bias AND WHY.

CHF taking a breather w/bedmates USD, EUR, GBP after bounce on dailies. May be good op to wait for top then short those XXX/CHF pairs. I percieve CHF as Au's ally in the safe house business.

Asian & European traders, sound off, it's your forum too.

Please post your pro's & con's & with reasons. Remember this is an idea forum, not an ego one, let's clean up the emotional childishness especially on Friday Animal House -food fight day, OK amigos?

~~~~Chuck~~~~

Global-view Careers 13:11 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
global-view's career listing service ("Jobs" pulldown)
- find a new career
- employers find talent you need

For example there are currently 88 various Foreign Exchange related Banking Jobs at Global-view's US Career Center

London Carl 13:04 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
wow - i thought you would close all at 45 for break even, count yourself lucky and move on to the next trade

We have different styles for sure - good luck though

Amman wfakhoury 12:58 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
London Carl 12:53 GMT January 25, 2008
====
I exited the 158.11 position only with 34 pips.
still have 2 buy position one at 158.42 other 158.90

London Carl 12:53 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman - seriously man, you cant say things like this after the fact. It just sounds so unbelievable.

Anyway, looks like you averaged out your position and have some profits - this strategy can work - no doubt about it.

But when it fails to work - your account BLOWS UP, as your position size is now too big to handle.

LDN Mahmood 12:52 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 12:49 GMT // Ambiguity and your untimely posts work to your advantage. You're the 20 pips buffoon. What you supposedly provide is absolutely useless. That's not trading!

Amman wfakhoury 12:51 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 12:47 GMT January 25, 2008
London Carl 12:25 GMT January 25, 2008
====
no I did not hedge as sell level not confirmed..
iso I bought another at 158.11

=====
position 158.11 exited at 158.45

Amman wfakhoury 12:49 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
LDN Mahmood 12:45 GMT January 25, 2008
====
you always went silent..when you see my signals correct.

EU theEUROqueen 12:48 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Mr:Jerome problem it was fear ..and fear is the first enemyfro every trader cut ur loss still a time befor it will be too late the Q:is how many Jerome still in the market..

happy week end bob and happy trade ..for me im shorting the usd against the gold and the euro..

Amman wfakhoury 12:47 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
London Carl 12:25 GMT January 25, 2008
====
no I did not hedge as sell level not confirmed..
iso I bought another at 158.11

Hasselt Red 12:46 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
i wonder why i keep hearing eurusd going to 15000, should have been there already if it was meant to be. My take, traders are realising gradually there won't be a fed rate cut...

LDN Mahmood 12:45 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 11:27 GMT >>> His last post so far. Conveniently he has gone silent. Don't fall for his cheap tricks.

"99.90 % sure signal"

US SW 12:37 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 12:33 GMT January 25, 2008

emotions also make and break profitable trades...having a giddy trigger finger will always get you in trouble

Maribor 12:33 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
My experience with "sure things" in forex is that when something is "sure", it is the other way around. Thing work out as (good) analysis shows so far as there is uncertainty about outcome. When it is psychologicaly "sure" which way it will go, it goes the other way.

Somebody's long position is others short...and, as it is claimed that speculation isn't work, you have to be useful for others to get paid: supply demand when there is too much supply and supply supply when there is plenty of demand...

mad 12:29 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
We all heard about the Japanese housewives in the FX market, right?!?!? But how about the Indian housewives in the Gold market ?!?!

Could Indian housewives be calling the top of the gold market? Many are selling unwanted jewellery into a booming recycling market and deferring all but essential purchases of the precious metal, commodity traders, economists and jewellers said on Wednesday.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cc8c3a94-c45d-11dc-a474-0000779fd2ac.html

sofia kaprikorn 12:26 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
hello to all - may I ask for ur opinion as I'm trying new way to manage my trades...

based on Hourly chart - EURJPY

after the High 159.11 kicked in I tried to enter 2 short trades with risk above the high (159.11) as risk/return was very good after the cross has run up a very extended rally..

based on a Hourly close below the previous high 158.41 - I scaled in average ~ 158.37 (confirmed by the Hourly candles in USDJPY pointing to upward exhaustion)

so after I waited the cross of the 20 MA I exited 4/5 around the low 157.90

last 1/4 of the position I left with a stop at 157.14 around the 20 MA - with target 157.50 ~~ the 23.6% fib retracement based on the 4H chart recent upmove (152.10 > 159.11)

- stop got hit while writing this --

pls excuse me for hte lenghty post - I will be glad to get insight from those pro's that would like to share thier advice!
GL & GT ALL!

London Carl 12:25 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Red that is my concern - people will follow blindly and lose money.

EURYEN rebounding now - did he release hedge? At what point? How much was lost on the hedge?

Posting later that all worked out OK - well what can I say - let people make their own conclusions

LDN Mahmood 12:24 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
London Carl 12:20 GMT // Amman wfakhoury is incomprehensible and his ambiguity and quality of timing act to his advantage. He has no hedge ... all has to show for his efforts is one big loss.

mad 12:23 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
...and follow Japanese housewives and Samurai Fukui .

God Could Not Be Everywhere, So He Created Yves Mercsh and Co to apply the old saying " Expect the unexpected" from time to time


8-)

Hasselt Red 12:22 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
was able to make money with Amman's calls on two occasions, but then again i only took those trades because my own system backed it up. Hope the newcomers here understand that just blindly taking calls will burn cash.... can't say it often enough!

US SW 12:21 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Would like an IDEA of what your guysis POSTION on the eurjpy thanx...

London Carl 12:20 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Mahmood - based on his posts, not sure he has exited, but rather now "hedging" the loss. But when does one release the hedge?

Anyway a position that should have been cut ages ago

mad 12:18 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
There are always some important and necessary questions to ask yourself before entering a trade. and these questions should come naturally

Here are some of them -
-How much are you willing to lose?
-What is the difference in the profit/loss possibilities?
-Is the market crazy or calm?
-Why do you feel that your trade is sound or reasonable one?
-Why do you feel so strongly about your trade?
etc.
8-(0

And don t worry , be happy , there is life outside the market .


London Carl 12:18 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Low so far is 157.82 - so HEDGE (SHORT ) at 157.89 is active.

so triple position long average 158.45
and triple position short 157.89

Based on Amman's posts, this is his current position as far as I understand

LDN Mahmood 12:16 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 11:27 GMT // At least now we've got you committed.
Summary of you long eur/jpy position
1) Long at 158.90
2) Added at158.38
3) Added 158.08

Exited 157.89 - for a total loss of 169 pips
(1) 101 pips, (2) 49 pips (3) 19 pips

And now sold 157.89 .... and where is your current stop loss?
Your famous guarantee "99.90 % sure signal."

Maribor 12:16 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
new brighton gvm 12:04 GMT January 25, 2008
--------------------
Maribor 07:31 GMT January 25, 2008
Sentiment on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY has already passed its peak few hours ago, USDCAD sentiment well after low. Fueled only on stops now it won't be long to retrace qiute a bit.
================

There aren't specific levels, but I still guess useful information.

London Carl 12:12 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Maribor - very possible he is making money, but not based on the posts he makes here. He always explains "after the fact".

My concern is that some traders here may be following his posts - and not winning, but losing money.

mad 12:10 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
new brighton gvm , we are anxiously waiting for your contribution my cyber FX Jedi

8-)

London Carl 12:09 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
So you now have a TRIPLE size position at average of 158.45, so down around 135 pips now, and you intended to hedge in 10 more pips down?

Just trying to see if I am understanding your plan right as sometimes your messages are not too clear.

I wish you luck - but risk is FAR too high

Maribor 12:09 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 11:27 GMT January 25, 2008
how to trade the signal
you bought @ 158.90 then it rise till 159.10 then decline
you may exit at your entry point./or
you may wait till it reverse levl 158.38 and buy another.
you may hedge your position at sell level.
--------------

Well, till profit target 159,4 or reverse target 138,38 isn't reached, you can not exit at entry point as you don't know which direction market will go. Second guessing may be possible, but is not ingredient of signal. So, this time you hedge at 158,38. If you hedge, your net position is zero. So you fix your loss till(and if) you are able to buy short position at better price than you sell long position. IF you would reverse, you would sell twice the first amount at sell level and would be net short with disadvantage of 52 lost pips(158,9-158,38). In this moment 158,11 you would have 23 pips recovered...

I guess for professional signal quality not good enough, but I believe wfakhoury is making money with his trading as rare traders do...

new brighton gvm 12:04 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
wow whats happened to this board - read today's comments and sadly concluded there aint nothing informative going on in this room

sofia kaprikorn 12:00 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
EURJPY - 4H chart -

recent low - 152.10 / recent high - 159.11

23.6% retracement -- 157.46
(reasonable target given the individual risk/reward profile and entry)

London Carl 11:56 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman - am I right to understand:

1st entry 158.90
2nd entry 158.38 (double position now)
3rd entry 158.08 - only 8 pips away - if hit, you now have TRIPLE SIZE position open.

Then your plan is NOT TO STOP, but take a hedge and lock in the loss??

This is insane trading

Can work sometimes, but when it does not - KABOOOM !!!!!!

sofia kaprikorn 11:56 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
PAR 11:31 GMT ........

interesting their lawyers keep them gaining even when in big losses.. somewhat contrary to common sense of the little guy menatlity

Mtl JP 11:51 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
12:00GMT - December Canadian CPI

could be market mover

PAR 11:31 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120114122245312195.html

Amman wfakhoury 11:27 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:26 GMT January 25, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 08:07 GMT January 25, 2008

=========
EUR/JPY
====
heading 159.40 now it is 158.90
===
99.90 % sure signal.BUY BUY another if decline
=====
reverse levels 158.38 and 158.08 sell level 157.89 ..act accordingly.
======
how to trade the signal
you bought @ 158.90 then it rise till 159.10 then decline
you may exit at your entry point./or
you may wait till it reverse levl 158.38 and buy another.
you may hedge your position at sell level.

melbourne DC 11:21 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
respite Roth comments, usdchf curving out triple bottom 1.0850 could wet carry risk appetite? esp with other factors?
Just a thought.

PAR 11:19 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/01/24/AR2008012402993.html?hpid=topnews

Amman wfakhoury 11:16 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
LDN Mahmood 10:48 GMT January 25, 2008
====
first understand the signal ..then comment.

London Carl 11:15 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Just ignore his comments and he will eventually go away. I mean its quite pathetic - I am not even sure if he is long or short. Ofcourse when euryen pops back up (in fact I am long on a 10min doji candle) he will claim he was right and that he added on dips.

Follow him at your own risk as they say

Maribor 11:10 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:26 GMT January 25, 2008

Like a cat - always fall on his feet.

PAR 11:04 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Us stimulus package good news for China and Japan .

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/01/20/afx4552279.html

PAR 10:50 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Weaker yen and yuan boosting japanese and chinese exports and that is making Samourai Fukui and Chinese Sun Tsu warrior ZHOU XIAUCHUAN very happy .

GENEVA DS 10:48 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Guess best person for compliance in Soc Generale would be Jerome.... he knows exactly, where the leaks are...

St. Annaland Bob 10:48 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
I call it a week ... last posts and many will be happy for that, I guess so ... great and peaceful weekend to all !!!

LDN Mahmood 10:48 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:26 GMT // "reverse levels 158.38 and 158.08 sell level 157.89 ..act accordingly."

So have you now reversed position at 158.38 and plan to sell more at 158.08 and 157.89?

St. Annaland Bob 10:40 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
XAU: take a coin and throw it in the air, if it will not fall then buy gold - if it will fall on the ground then sell gold ... kind of gravity trade ... I enter gold trades FIRST through options and then only SPOT/FWD - kind of money management

UK Alex 10:37 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Jerome Kerviel: CV and planetary alignment

London Gooner 10:35 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Gold teste 200% fibo of 2006 fall. Also upper trendline of possible 3 year bull chanel.
My chart gapped just above $915. Seems Palladium did too.
Exhaustion gap? we'll see. Not a Gold bear myself just watching
t/p situation a this could be one.
we'll see.

GENEVA DS 10:26 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Soc. Generale looking for new COMPLIANCE CHIEF... anybody?

Amman wfakhoury 10:26 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:07 GMT January 25, 2008

=========
EUR/JPY
====
heading 159.40 now it is 158.90
===
99.90 % sure signal.BUY BUY another if decline
=====
reverse levels 158.38 and 158.08 sell level 157.89 ..act accordingly.

St. Annaland Bob 10:25 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury

if I was an owner of trading platform and used the practice of trading against some of my customers, then you was my in-house analyst ... but, my soul comes first and that makes your option for a job one less ... enough said!

St. Annaland Bob 10:25 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury

if I was an owner of trading platform and used of practice of trading against some of my customers, then you was my in-house analyst ... but, my soul comes first and that makes your option for a job one less ... enough said!

LDN Mahmood 10:20 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:11 GMT // So amuse us with you massive Presidential brain. Did you add more and plan to add more to your losing position? Or are you going to disappear and thell us you reversed? Why don't you do us all a favour and leave this forum for good. The usual crap from the master of spin. Lodon Carl is absolutely right.

Amman wfakhoury 10:11 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
London Carl 09:59 GMT January 25, 2008
=====
just keep the advise for yourself please..I mentioned to buy another if decline...if anybody unable to do that I did not enforce him to enter the trade.

another thing.. any trader can add his strategy to any call
he can exist with s/l...he can do hedge ...he can keep away
of enter any position.

GENEVA DS 10:04 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
eurgbp seems to have troubles now to get any higher in Daily charts.... a break below 7400 would give target 7250.... GBPUSD has already broken up big time ... Stop on shorts 7485 anyway... on the other hand, we think CHFJPY could be a good play long still... long 9835, stop 9755 and ride to 10200 till end month... a break could mean more jpy weakness ahead and especially much more CHF stregth ahead.... all that gives excellent risk reward for this cross... good luck to all

London Carl 09:59 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman - been seeing your posts for months now. While I normally have no bad words to say of any poster (it is a free speech forum after all) - can you please do all of us a favour and STOP YOUR RIDICULOUS POSTS !!!!!!!!!!

Your philosophy seems to go for 20 pips but risk ANYTHING to get those 20 pips - perhaps this works for you - if you are only using say 1% of your account per trade, you have the scope to let a trade go bad.

But for many traders here trying to follow your so called advice - their account would be wiped out after just one bad call of yours as your philosophy of trading is "add to losers".

IF YOU INSIST on posting, then at least have the decency to post a stop - no shame if the stop gets hit, its all part of trading.

Anyway this will be my only post on this topic - GL GT to all

mad 09:35 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
for Her majesty's lovers ...Might be old but useful to bear in mind as we are talking real money

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Scottish & Newcastle Plc, the U.K.'s largest brewer, accepted a 7.8 billion-pound ($15.4 billion) offer from Carlsberg A/S and Heineken NV after three months of wrangling.

The Netherlands Purk 09:32 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
USA 09:27 GMT January 25, 2008

Building up an account these days with no emotion just trading what i see, and it gets me pips all over the place. I just ask for the pips and they are being given to me, provided i listen to the market and not the other way around...
How is the parrot?

USA 09:27 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:25 GMT January 25, 2008
Lol Purky..it will pay your mortgage but it will never buy you a house....

The Netherlands Purk 09:25 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
USA 07:15 GMT January 25, 2008
The Netherlands Purk 07:03 GMT January 25, 2008

Well i am taking profit on my e/u shorts taken earlier. You think i can eat from that seing that i trade micro lots these days....?

JAK BOND 09:21 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
MARIBOR

Yes I agree with you sir.
Guess the stock is ticking lower now but I dont know maybe someone can explain to me bout it TIA.

mad 09:15 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Man seen on Mars? This video shows what looks to be a human figure walking on the red planet. » Is it real? Yahoo.com

8-) Are they buying all the gold ?

Maribor 09:12 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
JAK BOND 08:56 GMT January 25, 2008

Well, I think there are some targets up there(USDJPY 108,08, GBPJPY 216,2) but I don't think they will be reached this round. EURUSD target was reached at 1,476. Quite unsure where we will go, except sentiment already reached top some hours ago and any move up is (in my opinion) not sustainable for now.

London st 09:10 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
London st 08:08 GMT January 25, 2008
how about we stop it at 15908 and reverse it,,,?lol...just to make sure the 99.98% is wrong..lol..
***FAKHOURI ...ad 4 pips of spread to the above leve and you get the high of the day so far..i did this not to be a smartarse but becuase i am sick of your 20 pip crap,,,,btw,,,the above level was not mine..i got it from a colleague known to purky as his next door neighbour,,,,,if you want to post post longer term than in 20 pip intervals...it would be more helpful to the people here...gt to all...

Gen dk 09:05 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

JAK BOND 08:56 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:13 GMT January 25, 2008
Maribor 08:12 GMT January 25, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 08:07 GMT January 25, 2008

It is quite extended, I think risk/reward would be better with selling on this levels.

=====
dont sell..dont sell ..buy another if decline.


-------
now what keep buying?

London Big Blind 08:55 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
long aud/usd at .8830 for 8862 , stop 8810

bilbao PEDRO 08:47 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
no,i am already down 9,000 $$$ on the position...

St. Annaland Bob 08:43 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   

$23 I mean ... sorry for the mistype

St. Annaland Bob 08:42 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   

took XAU/USD P850/870/890 31/MAR/2008 @ avg. $33 - target $99 ... have a nice day!

mad 08:38 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
gold to 1000us$ this month ?

mad 08:38 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
108, will it , wont it ...?

8-)

Samurai Fukui must find sleep easily today .... And his pal Fukuda as well

mad 08:36 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
GENEVA DS
It was all cash in hand in the good old days
8-)

Haifa ac 08:33 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
MAJOR blast in Beirut. Multiple cars. Many casualties. First estimate 3 dead, 25 minutes ago.

Syd 08:28 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Paying For High Current Account Deficits Central European emerging market currencies, look likely to lose the most as global risk aversion continues to rise. Their current account deficits dwarf those in other emerging markets, even though the ISK, TRY and ZAR are also seen at risk

sofia kaprikorn 08:28 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 08:12 GMT .......

EURJPY & GBPJPY both have made a very exaggerated modes do to the rally in USDJPY (fuled by stoxx rallies likely)

EURJPY - recent low ~155 -- so 400 pips gain now at 159...

GBPJPY - recent low ~207 -- ~700 pips gain now at 213.80
---
pretty much there is need for some profit taking but we might be better waiting for some reversal signal on Hourlies as these crosses are still pretty bullish.. regards!

Amman wfakhoury 08:13 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 08:12 GMT January 25, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 08:07 GMT January 25, 2008

It is quite extended, I think risk/reward would be better with selling on this levels.

=====
dont sell..dont sell ..buy another if decline.

Amman wfakhoury 08:12 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
London st 08:08 GMT January 25, 2008
====
then you have to post the 159.40 when it hits.

Maribor 08:12 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:07 GMT January 25, 2008

It is quite extended, I think risk/reward would be better with selling on this levels.

London st 08:08 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
how about we stop it at 15908 and reverse it,,,?lol...just to make sure the 99.98% is wrong..lol..

GENEVA DS 08:08 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
The societe Generale case shows once again , how EFFICIENT the Compliance Departments are all over the world..., when we had no Compliance in the 1980... we had never such problems.... good luck to all....

Amman wfakhoury 08:07 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
CORRECTION
=========
Amman wfakhoury 08:03 GMT January 25, 2008
EUR/JPY
====
heading 159.40 now it is 158.90
===
99.90 % sure signal.BUY BUY another if decline

Amman wfakhoury 08:04 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:03 GMT January 25, 2008
EUR/JPY
====
heading 159.40 now it is 158.90
===
99.90 % sure signal. sell another if decline.

Alaska Moon 08:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
It is REALLY hard to hold a tight stop during the Eur and London openings "head fakes" !! LOL
Moon

Amman wfakhoury 08:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
EUR/JPY
====
heading 159.40 now it is 158.90
===
99.90 % sure signal.

Como Perrie 07:49 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
just for the recrod the italian government has fallen.

some already talking about separatist movement to start to gain from now on, as most politicians right or left are prosecuted but yet in politics due the immune law they sat coupla years ago. More or less as Belgious was built 1830 so Italy was 1860 from part of Borbonic States, Vatican State, some french provinces and some austrian. All looks in the decade ahead we are going to split again more or less the same way, as the political class here is similar to underground bands and lobbies of the bananas republics

London Big Blind 07:46 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
it was'nt 107.60 but 107.55 , stop .75

London Big Blind 07:44 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Short usd/jpy at 107.60, stop 107.65, open target. I go for this trade because usd/jpy is on an extreme level of saturation.

St. Annaland Bob 07:42 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
USA 07:15 GMT January 25, 2008

good morning ... I wish you a nice day and may peaceful mind will be there with you to remain.

Helsinki iw 07:35 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Le Risk Manager??::

http://www.matthewlangley.com/blog/uploaded_images/pantera_rosa1-792371.jpg

PAR 07:35 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
*DJ BOJ Official: Market To Decide Forex Rates

Maribor 07:31 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Sentiment on EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY has already passed its peak few hours ago, USDCAD sentiment well after low. Fueled only on stops now it won't be long to retrace qiute a bit.

PAR 07:30 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
ECB transparancy ? Trichet better stops his vigilant press conferences .

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ahMLsCACfhP8&refer=home

mad 07:22 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
thx in advance 8-)

mad 07:22 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Where and when is the Super bowl plse ?

USA 07:15 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 07:03 GMT January 25, 2008
" Purky the Poultry Trader and Bob the Poultry Handler..what a combination...Speaking of which, watch the 10793 usd/jpy because from there it will bounce back like one of Bobs rubber chickens....

van Gecko 07:08 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Dollar/Yen & the Majors are up against stiff resistances after running up multi-figures in 3 days..
While some Europhiles & Goldies are getting vely euphoric from here, brave Japanese Cross Longkies who are filled up to their necks with windfall pips after these last few days may get more near term opportunties to fill their fx piggy banks again from below.. however, Dollar/Yen & Crosses may had printed their lows for Q1.. cheerios



Singapore fs 07:08 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
May the force be with you, Zeus... :)

The Netherlands Purk 07:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
e/u: what more chance do we get to short more, fantastic.
usd/jpy: after 10844 which will print i have 10928 as next.

mad 07:02 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
gold hits all time highs of 914.00$.

Borrow YEN to buy Gold, ...and USD$ is becoming a low yielder currency, soon to be used as a funding carry trade currency, isn t it ?

isr jweb 06:57 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
gold looks good. no retracements in sight - personal view. just give it some good trigger and off itll go...

mad 06:57 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
have a gr8 day and may the force be with you all !

8-)

mad 06:56 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
* Former Fed Alan Greenspan, says US at the edge of recession or over, recession odds have definitely moved up, probability of recession 50%, maybe more.....

* WSJ : Washington Sets $150 Billion Plan To Jolt Economy Package Includes Boost For Big Mortgages, Rebates for Taxpayers: Congress and the White House hammered out an economic stimulus package that would put $150b into the hands of consumers and businesses while seeking to revive the market for large mortgages. It was a rare display of compromise and speed in a city known recently for partisan gridlock.

* BoJ minutes for Dec 19-20: Some members said that international financial markets remain unstable.

* BoJ Toshihiko Fukui says BoJ will keep current accommodative policy, falls in share prices will curtail personal consumption.

* MoF Fukushiro Nukaga : Important for G7 to show cooperative stance to stabilise the markets.

* PM Yasuo Fukuda: prolonged stock rout may affect economy and govt will consider plan if the economy is affected. -BBG.

(Fukuda seem keen to put a Floor on Nikkei fall, Cap on JPY rise)

* ECB Vitor Constancio says any decisions on interest rates are based on ECB's mandate and outlook for future inflation.

* RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard : Kiwi is still broadly overvalued. Current Interest rates level appropriate to deal with inflation now.

* A calmer and brighter day in terms of market sentiment, with stock markets rallying and Cross/JPY firmer, despite the temporal cloud cast by reports of SocGen EUR4.9bln losses, due to unauthorised trading to tune of EUR50b by Jerome Kerviel.

* Cross/JPY and USD/JPY end Asia sessions at day highs, supported on back of further stocks rally, as NIkkei has now recovered >1000 points in just 4 days from January 22 lows of 12,572.68, to today's 13,629.16, a rebound of 1,056.48.

USD/JPY, initially capped at 107.20-30 level on talks of good Asian, Taiwan, China, Japan trust banks and regular custodian banks offers. It then rallied in afternoon on huge buying hitting stops above.

The good buying hit stops above 107.40-50, above post Fed 75bps cut highs of 107.38-39 on Wed, 23 Jan, as large Japanese lifers, French, Europeans names bought USD/JPY, Cross/JPY.

GBP/JPY hitting 212.91 from 212 on Cross/JPY with good potential M+A demand for Cable and EUR/GBP sales on the S&N-Heineken/Carlsberg GBP10b deal today.

NZD dipped on RBNZ Bollard comments, sending AUD/NZD firmer. Overall, Cross/JPY, JPY carry trades all firmer on stock rally on US stimulus and expectation of Fed cuts next week - though concerns and risks remain.

Nikkei +4.10% or +536.38pts at 13,629.16. JGBs lower on back of firmer stocks, 10-yr yield +0.095% at 1.480%

Crude oil firmer at $89.87, eye $90, while Gold prices edging toward all time highs again, now at $911.50/912.50, eye all time highs of $914.00.

mad 06:43 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Daily Pivot Points Jan 25, 06:30 GMT
StandardEUR/USD
S3 1.4449
S2 1.4520
S1 1.4637
P 1.4708
R1 1.4825
R2 1.4896
R3 1.5013

Malaysia puteraku73 06:40 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.21 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 5.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 25.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 9.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains


GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.64 as 62% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.0% lower than yesterday and 14.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 37.9% higher than yesterday and 29.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.3% stronger than yesterday and 10.8% above its monthly average. With open interest growing and the SSI reading close to flipping, the rebound in GBPUSD spot is finding support from sentiment. A break higher will likely come with a run on short stops while simultaneously triggering long positions a potentially significant shift in the SSI and positioning.


USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.72 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.90 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.0% lower than yesterday and 16.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.3% higher than yesterday and 23.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 1.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

mad 06:36 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
hello and gm FX jedi

8-)

japanese wives and Fukui long NIKKEI

88-)

hk ab 06:16 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
zeus what do u see on gold front?

Syd 05:47 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
China Growth May Slow at Worst Time for World Economy
China is starting to gain control of its turbocharged economy, just as a U.S. slowdown raises the risks of doing so.

A narrowing trade surplus and declining money-supply growth are among the first signs that the world's fourth-largest economy is pulling back from its fastest expansion in 13 years. The government has raised interest rates six times in a year, restricted credit, frozen some prices and let the currency appreciate to damp growth and inflation.

The risk is that, with months of effort to cool off China finally taking hold when the U.S. is already flirting with recession, both main engines driving the global economy may power down at the same time.
``As foreign demand deteriorates, China may overdo its tightening of policy and cause a sharp economic slowdown,'' says Frank Gong, Hong Kong-based chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. ``If the central bank raised interest rates too much, it would damp domestic demand and increase the danger of economic downturn.''


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=aH.a.hviSBQg

USA Zeus 05:34 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:09 GMT January 24, 2008
This trader Joe added some more shorts-
EUR/USD 1.4778.

This could turn out to be some red hot chili peppers.
.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

Must be the luckiest trader Joe of the day shorting at the very top and having the stop missed by 1 pip. Must be the red hot chili peppers. LOL

Syd 05:32 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
US Slowdown May Cause Asian Mfg "Recession" -Citi
Singapore posts dismal manufacturing output in December, and trend may not improve anytime soon as U.S. slowdown could lead to "a manufacturing recession" across Asia, says Citigroup's Chua Hak Bin; "the U.S. is going to show less demand for manufactured products, and that's going to hit countries like China and Singapore very hard." However, Chua expects Singapore's GDP to rise 5.6% in 2008, with select sectors like shipbuilding, offshore rig drilling providing support

Syd 04:27 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
dc CB 04:20 there should now be rating agencies watching rating agencies .

dc CB 04:20 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
MOODY'S PLACES ITSELF ON NEGATIVE WATCH

Washington - Moody's the ratings agency, has placed itself on negative watch, citing it's horrendous track record at rating just about everything except t-bills.
"We suck. We couldn't spot an investment-grade bond in a box of Confederacy Debentures or Continental Bank CD's." said one source at the agency...

:) yes it's a joke :)

Syd 04:01 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
WSJ(1/25) 2nd UPDATE: More Risk For Fannie, Freddie?
One of the features of the economic stimulus package fashioned yesterday by Congress and the Bush administration would provide guarantees to more -- and much larger -- mortgages in an effort to boost the housing market. But it also would expose the nation's two government-sponsored mortgage companies to greater credit risk.

With defaults rising, investors lately have shunned nearly all mortgages not guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They assume that the two companies, which are private but were created by Congress, would get a bailout in a crisis.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buy from lenders only mortgages that conform to their standards. Currently, that means the largest mortgage they will buy on single-family homes in the continental U.S. is $417,000. Their standards on down payments and verification of income are stricter than were those of many lenders during the housing boom.


Syd 03:18 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
WSJA Bank Of China Likely To Report Large Write Down

Analysts estimate that state-owned Bank of China, traditionally the most international of the country's big banks, may have to write off a fourth of the nearly $8 billion it holds in securities backed by U.S. subprime mortgages, those made to borrowers with weak credit. While that would still leave it profitable for last year, it would be far larger than the $322 million the lender said it had provisioned for such losses in its results announcement for the third quarter, when it last publicly addressed the issue.

The possible subprime losses also raises questions about transparency at China's banks, which list shares for international investors in Hong Kong and domestically in Shanghai - and which are among the biggest banks in the world by some measures. Analysts say they can only make educated guesses at how much money Bank of China's U.S. subprime investments lost last year because China's rules don't require it to disclose the total until April when it announces full results for 2007. The same is true for other big Chinese lenders, including Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (0349.HK) and China Construction Bank Corp. (0939.HK), although their total holdings of U.S. mortgage securities are much smaller.

"We don't have a good read" on the current value of mortgage holdings at Bank of China and other Chinese lenders, says Charlene Chu, a senior director at Fitch Ratings China. The lenders "have not been transparent" about the ratings on the mortgage securities they own.

Wang Zhaowen, a Bank of China spokesman, declined Monday to disclose the size of the bank's losses, saying figures were still being audited.

Mortgage-backed securities have been notoriously hard to value, because trading of them tends to be thin. Despite that, financial institutions in the U.S. and Europe have already reported tens of billions of dollars in losses on securities backed by subprime mortgages and other types of loans. Those losses have forced them to seek capital injections from cash-rich investors in China, Singapore, Kuwait and other East Asian and Middle Eastern countries.

Bank of China's total exposure to U.S. subprime investments is the largest among Asian financial institutions, and any sizable write-down of those holdings could rattle already-anxious investors. Already, Chinese stocks have fallen this year in part because of concerns that banks - major market heavyweights in China - won't be able to sustain their strong earnings gains, and that the U.S. housing-market problems will hurt China's financial sector.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index on Monday fell below 5000 for the first time this year, losing 5.1% to close at 4914.44. Bank of China's Shanghai-listed shares slid 4.1% to 6.25 yuan each.

Underlining the concerns, Jiang Dingzhi, vice chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, warned in a statement on the agency's Web site Monday that China's banks will "see rising credit risks, with non-performing loans more likely to rebound" as they face a range of economic uncertainties, including from the U.S. subprime troubles.

Losses are a sore point for China's big banks. In recent years they have quieted doomsayers from the 1990s who predicted that huge bad loans-the product of decades of lending to poorly run state-owned companies-would eventually cripple the nation's economy. In 1999, Bank of China, for instance, recorded non-performing loans of $71 billion-or 39% of its total loans.

Ironically, Bank of China began dabbling in U.S. mortgage securities partly as a consequence of a 2003 government bailout to deal with those bombed-out balance sheets and prepare big lenders for public listings. Those listings-and strategic investments ahead of them by companies like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC (RBS) - have since raised tens of billions of dollars.

As part of the 2003 bailout, Beijing permitted Bank of China to shift $22.5 billion of the country's foreign-exchange reserves money managed in Hong Kong onto the bank's own balance sheet. Bank of China was traditionally the government's main channel to the international financial system, and until about four years ago it managed a portion of China's foreign exchange reserves on behalf of the central bank. When the reserves were managed on behalf of the government, Bank of China had instructions to keep it primarily invested in ultra-safe U.S. Treasurys.

But as Bank of China moved to boost its earnings to prepare for its initial public offering, its also began hunting for ways to boost yields on the estimated $60 billion to $70 billion it had available to invest overseas-including the money apportioned to the bank by the government in 2003-according to a person familiar with the situation. The bank started buying asset-backed securities in the U.S., including those backed by fancy mortgage products.

Bank of China's exposure became clear in late August last year, soon after the U.S. subprime crisis began, when it reported holdings of $9.65 billion in U.S. mortgage securities. But the bank also said it expected losses to be small as it held only assets with high credit ratings. Then, in late October, it said the value of its portfolio of such securities had fallen to $7.95 billion, and that it had provisioned $322 million for losses in the third quarter.

Samuel Chen, a banking analyst at JP Morgan (Asia) Securities, now expects Bank of China to write off nearly $2 billion of its subprime holdings for full-year 2007. Chu of Fitch also puts the figure at 20% to 30% of the total. But she says that figure could be off, because analysts only have ratings information on the bank's various holdings of U.S. mortgage securities through June. "We just don't know where those tranches (of securities) are rated at today," she says.

A write-down of that size would seriously eat into Bank of China's 2007 profit. Last year, the lender reported record net profit of almost $6 billion, and most analysts have expected that to grow to nearly $8 billion this year, not including losses on its mortgage securities beyond what it has reported.

Other big banks are expected to report huge jumps in 2007 earnings despite Industrial & Commercial Bank, China's biggest lender by assets, having reported exposure to U.S. mortgage securities of $1.23 billion, and saying it had set aside 1.624 billion yuan ($224 million) for losses through September. China Construction Bank, another of the top four state-owned banks, reported $1.06 billion in subprime assets in August, and has provisioned CNY336 million for potential losses. Analysts expect both banks to increase loss provisions for the fourth quarter in line with the deteriorating condition of the U.S. mortgage sector. Industrial & Commercial Bank and China Construction Bank declined to comment.
22nd January... WSJ

Syd 02:51 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
DJMoody's Investors Service has downgraded the ratings of three tranches from BankUnited Trust 2005-1. The collateral backing these classes consists of primarily first lien, adjustable-rate negative amortizing Alt-A mortgage loans.

Syd 02:48 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Rabobank Forecasts USD/CNY To End 2008 At 6.79
Rabobank economist Jan Lambregts tips USD/CNY to end 2008 at 6.79, a 7.6% rise by CNY vs USD, as Beijing moves to employ currency as tool to fight inflation, cool economy. Says ongoing rapid FX reserve accumulation presents real inflationary risks, "hence the large trade surplus not only produces external pressure, but through the domestic economy also provides Chinese policymakers with a clear incentive to allow further CNY appreciation." USD/CNY currently at 7.2086

Syd 02:46 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
China's base metals prices may mostly be pressured downwards after traditional Lunar New Year in early February, as production, imports pick up, while consumption slows due to holiday season, says analyst at metals trading firm in Shanghai. "Demand doesn't seem to be very good, even if it's stockpiling time before the holiday, which means we might probably see a sluggish spring this year, unlike 2007

dc CB 02:44 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
The Financial Tsunami
Part III: Greenspan's Grand Design

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/engdahl/engdahl012408.html

Syd 02:36 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
WSJ(1/25) UPDATE: Criticism Of Rate Cut MountsWASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a perception problem: It looks like he is too ready to respond to a falling stock market.

That criticism was sounded after the Fed moved to cut interest rates Tuesday, in part because of fears that an overseas stock-market plunge would spill over to the U.S. The drumbeat grew more intense yesterday as critics and others confronted the possibility that the global selloff was at least partly a false alarm, reflecting French bank Societe Generale SA's unwinding of a trader's unauthorized bad bets, and due less to economic anxiety

USA Zeus 02:01 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Vail MC 01:35 GMT January 25, 2008

yw MC. ST model SAR'd and trailed from 105.53

USA Zeus 01:43 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
UK Alex 22:04 GMT January 24, 2008

Don't tase me Alex. The globe didn't fall apart over the weekend and US holiday losing some several $ trillions in the global capital markets because Fred in Merced California skipped out on his mortgage payment

It has become an "inconvenient truth" that the subprime market is (was) a drop in the global paper business yet any institution (bank) that implodes or global exchange meltdown is casually labeled a “subprime victim” as if Fred kicked ‘em in the B’s and made them curl over and fall face down in the dirt.

It could be that subprime has caused the butterfly effect in the markets but I truly pity the fools that look left while a rouge in France sweeps right. The US markets open at a discount after the globe melts down in mayhem and Armageddon cries at the local bourses and what happens? Up, up up past Friday’s close.

In the end there is no accountability, only victims. The UK and the Euro Collusion are rife in its own toxicity. To play the blame game and point to Fred is only a ploy. His mortgage became worthless in the markets some many months ago. That is an old and stale headline. Look deeper. If you don’t know who the real patsy is…


Happy Day!

Syd 01:37 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
China syndrome could end Aussie dollar's reign
The Australian dollar faces two years of declines as a rise in global inflation causes a tectonic shift in international money flows, a leading forecaster with Europe's largest investment bank says.

The trigger for the realignment of economic forces will rising inflation in the emerging economies of Asia, according to Hans Redeker, global head of foreign exchange at BNP Paribas, the largest of the banks located in the euro currency zone.

This could see the Australian dollar fall back to around US 66 cents by the end of next year, according to Mr Redeker.
http://business.smh.com.au/china-syndrome-could-end-aussie-dollars-reign/20080115-1m3z.html

Vail MC 01:35 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
thanks zeus, I think it is trying to bottom so just curious if you were looking at any levels for short term.

Syd 01:31 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
RBNZ Bollard: NZ Dollar "Still Broadly Overvalued" - Reuters

USA Zeus 01:17 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Vail mc 20:59 GMT January 24, 2008


Hi mc. Well IMVHO very very LT minded it is a steal. On the intra-day seems like a test for support with some mixed on the various octaves for respective vibrations.

Cheers!

Syd 01:10 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
TALK:NZD Down As RBNZ Gov Takes Sting Out Of CPI Threat


0107 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD falls as market zooms in on RBNZ Governor Bollard's comments to Canterbury Chamber of Commerce that inflation pressures should abate as household spending slows. Comments not new or significantly different to yesterday's policy statement, which reiterated current cash rate of 8.25% sufficient to contain medium term CPI within RBNZ's 1%-3% target band; however, governor appears unwilling to consider any hikes, at least in short term, which could be negative for most hawkish spectrum of FX market. DJ

Syd 01:03 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
DJ Odds Of BOJ Interest Rate Cut Fall Back - CS
Market odds on a BOJ rate cut fall back with overnight OIS now showing just 4% chance of rate cut at February meeting, down from 9% yesterday, according to Credit Suisse; comes as week's Fed rate cut, news of U.S. stimulus package spark global stock rebound, risk appetite. Market now pricing in 11 bps of rate cuts over next year, down from 17 bps Thursday, swaps show

Syd 00:59 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
RBNZ Governor Bollard strikes confident note on inflation fight, says price pressures should abate as household spending slows; comments help send NZD/USD 25 pips lower. Adds while RBNZ has been responding to housing related inflation, other pressures by hiking cash rate, monetary policy appears to have worked with a longer lag than usual because of low global interest rates, competition among mortgage lenders. Says despite tough challenges, monetary policy framework well equipped to deal with global shocks; reiterates yesterday's statement that bank will closely watch global developments, as turbulence in markets, outlook for U.S. economy deteriorates. "Our inflation targeting framework is robust and well-placed to deal with these challenges." Says monetary policy has to be constantly tuned to handle large changes to country's economic conditions caused by international shocks; key challenges include surging oil, commodity prices and global housing boom as well as consumption uptick. DJ

Malaysia Fxtoon 00:52 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
closed my loonie long +32

Syd 00:46 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
NZD/USD Falls 25 Pts On RBNZ Gov Comment On CPI, Now US$0.7714

Syd 00:24 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
DJ BOJ Minutes: Japan CPI May Rise Faster Than Expected

austin mw 00:02 GMT January 25, 2008 Reply   
Gold Coast RC 23:12 GMT January 24, 2008
Forgot to add Martial Law.. Must be listening to Alex Jones!! lol

 




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Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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