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Forex Forum Archive for 01/27/2008

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Syd 23:59 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
US SW 23:55 Japan I suppose will determine the moves first

Lead Nikkei Futures Open Down 270 Points At 13400 On SGX

US SW 23:58 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
GBPUSD moving again...sold

US SW 23:55 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Syd 23:46 GMT January 27, 2008

would you consider initiating a short postion on the usdyen?

US SW 23:52 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
HF Hedgemaster 23:49 GMT January 27, 2008

LOL though not the same hedge:)

HF Hedgemaster 23:49 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Hedge all hedges with another hedge.

Syd 23:46 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: USD/JPY Could Falter This Week; Risk Aversion

US SW 23:42 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Hedge the the euroyen against the usdyen

Dallas DF 23:37 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Hey, can anyone share their analysis of the GBP/CHF? I think it is going to go up over the next week, but let me know what you think.

Syd 23:30 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
DJ NZ Service Sector Activity Eased To Record Low In Dec-Survey
The December value was the lowest recorded for the survey since it began in April 2007.

The New Zealand economy has entered a period of slow growth, and economists expect further slowdown as consumption and demand eases off due to high interest rates, rising oil and food prices.

The PSI report supports evidence of a cooling economy, although the December seasonal holidays looks to have exaggerated the impact on the services sector.

The survey showed all five seasonally adjusted main gauges expanded, although all recorded lower values than November. New orders/business led the way with 59.2 but dropped below 60 for the first time.

Syd 23:28 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: JPY Crosses May Fall; Possible Asia Stock Falls

ABHA FXS 23:15 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
SHORT GBPUSD 1.9837 STOP 1.9865 T 1.9346

Wellington, N.Z. 22:48 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   

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US SW 22:45 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
I see some technical resistance on the usdjpy around 10710 on the 90 minute chart...does anyone care to add on this pair? ideas are needed here!

Syd 22:18 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
French Govt Could Intervene Against SocGen Predators -TV

Syd 22:09 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Friday' Wall Street slide, softer European markets once again dents investor confidences, encouraging investors to trim risk exposure and pushing up yen; Bank of NZ FX strategist Danic Hampton says there's considerable uncertainty about near-term outlook for US economy, global growth; this environment will keep pressure on high yielders as highlighted by Friday's selloff of JPY crosses; USD/JPY last 106.73 vs 106.99 late in NY Friday, EUR/JPY 156.71 vs 156.93, NZD/JPY 81.93 vs 82.70 late Friday in Wellington, AUD/JPY 93.90

Syd 22:01 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
WSJA(1/28) Heard In China: Traders Take Defensive Positions
Hong Kong -- SKEPTICS SEE more of the sheen coming off China's stock markets this year, and investors are on the prowl for strategies that break away from last year's buy-anything philosophy.

Chinese markets have been a beacon in the region even as the subprime-debt mess and fears of a U.S. recession have put a dent in global markets. Still, they are down about 10% this year and likely to come under more pressure, those turning bearish on the market say.

As China implements tightening measures to correct imbalances in its trade surplus, fend off inflation and deal with declining exports to a slowing U.S. economy, its equities trading is apt to see more zigs and zags than in 2007.

The recent turmoil, which took a bite out of most Asian markets, hit China hard. In Tuesday's Asian rout, the benchmark Shanghai Composite index sank 7.2%, following a 5% drop the day before, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 8.7%. After a hefty U.S. interest-rate cut, markets rebounded. The Shanghai index climbed for three straight sessions, although it still ended with a weekly loss of 8.7%. By comparison, Hong Kong lost 0.3% over the week.

USA Zeus 21:18 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
US SW 21:09 GMT January 27, 2008
You are not alone....May the force be with you!

US SW 21:09 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Sorry Guys...just had to say this...Obama is making me sick to my stomach...

Syd 20:54 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
PARIS (AFP)--Lawyers for Jerome Kerviel, the trader fingered in the Societe Generale (SCGLY) scandal, said Sunday he had done nothing wrong and blamed the bank for trying to divert attention from other losses.

Kerviel, "who was trained by the bank to make profits, has committed no dishonest act, did not siphon off a single cent, and did not profit in any way from the assets of the bank," Elisabeth Meyer and Christian Charriere-Bournazel told AFP by telephone.

austin mw 20:53 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
austin mw 16:22 GMT January 26, 2008
15:00 jay, agree with your view on the FED meeting. Again, they have backed themselves into a corner and I don't see anyway out. Like you mentioned, I think the 75bps cut earlier in the week was a sign of panic and left Ben & Co. looking rather foolish. At best they give the market a 25bps cut but I think the FED is done until further evidence pops up supporting a move.
As for the markets, they have cut back on expectations of a 50bps move but anything less. I look for a sell-off below the lows of this past week regardless of FED decisioin. Also see further unwinding of carry trades. See USDJPY testing 104 if not lower but also looking for BOJ to step in should those levels be seen.

USA Zeus 20:49 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 18:21 GMT January 26, 2008
Cbj Jake 21:46 GMT January 25, 2008

Thx for the kind words fellas. Let's hope that with another great week ahead, some of your positive enthusiasm rubs off on some of the others as we crush it!


US SW 20:40 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 20:36 GMT January 27, 2008

Thanks You Sir, always apprciate your comments!

London NYAM 20:36 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
SW/Personally prefer to look for good opportunities to long the GBP or EUR rather than toy with the cross or the yen. Focus will be on the fed and that may make uncertainty in that area difficult to trade and they (the crosses) look to be in the middle of many possibilities. Should get a decent op tuesday or wednesday for the yen and crew.

US SW 20:26 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 20:24 GMT January 27, 2008

will you dare trade before the pres speaks?.....Im thinking of buying the YEN...maybe shorting the EUROJPY...what ya thinks SIR

Syd 20:25 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
NZD will "float in limbo" early today until Asian markets open as Australia, Auckland closed and no local data expected, says ANZ bank. Adds the Nikkei, which closed up Friday, will likely follow sell off on Dow and "may take NZD along for the ride." Notes "risk/yield see-saw bounced back slightly in favor of risk over weekend," as market optimism that U.S. can avoid recession waned and profit taking opportunities on Dow "too good to be ignored." DJ

London NYAM 20:24 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
if the charts are being friendly, they suggest a general round of dollar weakness for the first 48 hours of trade at least. gbpusd looks ready to test 1.9880 if broken a decent chance of 2.0140. usdjpy also looks ready to go back under 106.00 possibly testing the lows. the cross may meander range-bound along with its cousin equities.

US SW 20:23 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
energy crisis, credit crisis, terriousism, floods, hurricanes, nuclear war, disease....and of course Revolations..makes you think haa

Syd 20:19 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Stock market turmoil spells trouble on the horizon
George Magnus, the senior economic adviser to UBS investment bank, attributes Monday's events to fears that "a new blockage in the credit arteries" had popped up. He traced this blockage to "yet another esoteric corner of the financial markets".

Specialist financial companies called monoline insurers operating deep within the bowels of the financial system insure banks against bonds going bad. Ten days ago the credit agency Fitch downgraded one such company, Ambac. Investors feared that other investors would panic about the prospect of further downgrades to monolines, or even outright insolvencies. Fears over a monoline insurance meltdown boiled into panic.LInk

Syd 20:11 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Dow Jones Friday' Wall Street slide, softer European markets once again dents investor confidences, encouraging investors to trim risk exposure and pushing up yen; Bank of NZ FX strategist Danic Hampton says there's considerable uncertainty about near-term outlook for US economy, global growth; this environment will keep pressure on high yielders as highlighted by Friday's selloff of JPY crosses

Syd 20:10 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD opens down after sharp rally toward end of last week, as risk-aversion reared its head again Friday amid losses in Wall Street, trepidation ahead of Fed meeting this week; traders say investor uncertainty about U.S. economic outlook, global growth continue to knock back yen funded carry trades, should keep high yielders like AUD, NZD under selling pressure; AUD/USD opens at 0.8792 in Wellington vs 0.8841 late Friday in Sydney, should be quiet session today as Australian markets closed for Australia Day holiday. Support appears firm around 0.8750. dow jones

Syd 20:05 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Good Day ...Financial crisis could cost London 20,000 jobs
As many as 20,000 City jobs are likely to be wiped out by the financial crisis, according to one of the first comprehensive forecasts of the toll on London's economy.
A fall in jobs of this scale could severely affect the economy
Experian, a leading economic forecaster, has slashed its predictions for job growth in the City and Canary Wharf from neutral to up to a 5 per cent fall in net employment this year.

US SW 20:02 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
HEY, guys....I have been reading your post daily and seems that you are all saying the same theme...the dollar will remain week accoarding to your anylisis on the FED and Paulsons BS...I have a feeling that this stimuli...package will backfire...and this will only add to the dollor meltdown...I think the Dollar will continue to fall further a travel sidways for years to come...I hate to say this, but it seems that the US currency won't change until a War or deppression or what ever comes first....Hyperinflation will be our disease...and the Terrourist Weapon of Choice....GL ...happy to see intellingent traders here...I can trade well, but don't know what I would do without your guyis fundimental help...maybe lost in the woods somewhere...anyways...I plan On buying the euro against the dollar under 141 ....nothing will change untill intrest rates start zooming upp...and I don't think this will happen for several years to come...sorry for the spelling errours.

Wellington, N.Z. 20:00 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   

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Click here

PAR 18:29 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Paulson says strong dollar is in our nations interest.
Paulson says Us economic fundamentals are strong.
Can Paulson please define what " STRONG" means .r

In Davos all economists agree that the problem is that Us consumers spent too much and save too less. And then they approve the stimulus package aimed at still more consumption and less savings. As in the past Milton Friedman is only solution to Us economic problems.

Como Perrie 17:04 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Leaders of NYSE Euronext, the US-European exchange group, said on Friday that global regulators were considering telling banks that they must disclose basic data about over-the-counter contracts such as collateralised debt obligations and credit default swaps, many of which have fallen sharply in value in the wake of the subprime crisis

philadelphia caba 15:50 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Rabo Bank CEO Warns Worst To Come For Europe Banks - Reuters According to a Reuters report Bert Heemskerk, chief executive of Dutch bank Rabobank said in Davos that European banks faced yet worse losses from the credit crisis saying: "Quite a few banks are heavily involved, and in particularly if you look at European banks, we have not seen the worst. The news has not been spreading out about the losses that the European banking system has to take."
Rumours were swirling in the markets on Friday that ING and Fortis might be forced to issue profit warnings at some stage and this was one of the reasons for the EUR weakening and equity markets closing the week on a sour note. (thmsn)

time to get back to eur/chf short trade again?
comments, views welcome...

Como Perrie 12:29 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Also crimes in Italy are getting unpunished now en mass. This some I do not like as justice is one of the four pillars of a sane nations, once they do start to drop down might be smelly of a nation's end. At least the way we have been used to.

Como Perrie 12:24 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
Deluge Of Reports Will Flood Market Next Week - Economic Preview

And the italian situation reminds the 92 crisis in europe, which might drag down the euro sharply too.

News will be printed afterwards as usual. This time was interesting even the FED 3/4 was becouse they lost control over several complex global agregates and risks.

Como Perrie 12:21 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
That NYT article is just marketing. They simply do not know.

What's good to me is most big banks sharly lowered stock marekt valuations for the year. Guess first if they are capable to get a balance sheet and look what's the true value of a listed company. Answer is most do not have a clue.

So moral of the story is we are going to see what next and not follow hopes printed for the ducks.

NYT 11:57 GMT January 27, 2008 Reply   
An Ear to the Ground on Stocks


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