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Forex Forum Archive for 01/28/2008

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USA BAY 23:58 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Will short eur/gbp starting from 7450 and higher if seen.

USA BAY 23:57 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

YEP , GBP/USD may test 2.01/03 level but still looks like cable will go down after that, same goes for yen pairs I think. Any idea a good level to sell gbp/jpy. thx

Syd 23:49 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
There is no Medley report forecasting RBA monetary policy outlook, say market sources who periodically read these reports; comes after bonds dropped in Sydney on talk a Medley report said RBA may raise interest rates in both February and March. But Medley hasn't issued any such report, sources say.dj

London NYAM 23:49 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 23:41// i see a fairly decent risk to 1.9670 but the trend is up so its level picking for the 2.00 mark. I would not be surprised to see 2.03. EurGbp stop at .7492 targeting round .7290 maybe more but, as ive said before we may yet have another leg up before the mega correction. Look at relative rates. I have a lot of cash in gbo from my house sale and i still dont like the rate differentials.

Syd 23:47 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Japan's December jobless rate at 3.8%, same rate as in November, better than 3.9% forecast by Dow Jones/Nikkei; also down from 4.0% in October. Data indicate that companies, despite increasing downside risks to economy, still willing to add labor dj

USA Tech 23:45 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Any insights on GBP/NZD pair, tia

London NYAM 23:43 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
so is ben going to cut 0, 2, 50 or a rocikn 75?
By all accounts it looks like 0 to 25:

http://www.slate.com/id/2128743


and for those alternatively inclined...mars is in libra, you do he math:
http://www.astrologysoftware.com/community/pdf/bernanke_sw.pdf

USA BAY 23:41 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
HI NYAM,

Can you comment on eur/gbp and gbp/usd under current levels. tia

Syd 23:37 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Your right it is 0030 GMT Australia December NAB business survey

Syd 23:35 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
NYC PCM 23:29 just checked two different calenders both have one or the other .

Syd 23:32 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
NYC PCM 23:29 GMT dont think thats out today only skilled vacancies .

NYC PCM 23:29 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Syd

the only target I have is a 1.25 week cycle target at 0.8955. That might not get hit until the end of the week though. right now I'm just expecting follow through tomorrow from todays cycle low. I'll take any move that gets me near that level or just bail out before Fed.

On the downside I've just got a break even stop at this point. The rationale place to have the stop if I was playing this through "news" would be just below todays low.

What's your view on the NAB business confidence - is that likely to move the market?

Syd 23:28 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
canmore cyclops 23:26 looking for a pullback to 88 unless all censored lets lose again

canmore cyclops 23:26 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Syd 22:51 GMT January 28, 2008

Personally I went long earlier today at 8800 and have closed 50% of the trade at these levels. looking to close the rest at either 8915 or so, or stopping out at 8855

Syd 23:20 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Polish migrants living in Britain claiming £21m in child benefits for children left behind
link

Syd 23:10 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
NYC PCM 23:03 what levels are you looking at for today thks

London Gooner 23:09 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Syd 20:35 GMT January 28, 2008
(Dow Jones)--The dollar could rise against the euro if the market receives its hoped-for interest rate cut Wednesday, contrary to the textbooks.
-
Price action around 1.4790 seem to communicate more upside may be a last push effort. After last FED action EUR seems to be struggling confirming its yield advantage.
The words 'agaisnt textbook' seem to reflect price movements currently. Shorting from longer term seem to have started.

Syd 23:09 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 23:04 GMT January 28, 2008
NYC PCM 23:03
agree can see a pullback into the FED especially if there is only a 25bpt cut , nobody would want to be sitting long from 89

Mtl JP 23:04 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Syd 22:51 / looks like test of 894ish is in the cards

NYC PCM 23:03 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
syd

I'm bullish AUD here. In fact went long today. However I intend to take most or all the profits off the table before the Fed on Wednesday.

I see today as being the 5 week cycle low on AUDUSD.

London NYAM 23:00 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 22:54//No idea JP but at this point i would think Noyer is just part of the Useless-backstabbing Euro crowd. I would agree with Syd. If you want to screw them its 50 basis points right off the bat maybe 75. Begger they neigbor and this time they wont have any privy to it. (And next time too). 25 basis points will prove that Bernake has absolutely no sense of shakespearean revenge.

Syd 22:59 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
ECB aid to Spanish banks matches Rock rescue
Spanish banks are issuing mortgage securities and asset-backed bonds on a massive scale to park at the European Central Bank,

Reliance on the ECB window appears to have kept the mortgage sector afloat despite the sharp slowdown in the Spanish property market and the de facto closure of the capital markets for this type of business, allowing Spain to avoid the sort of mishap suffered by Northern Rock in Britain and Countrywide in the US.

The data appear to confirm suspicions that the EU authorities have carried out a covert rescue of the Spanish mortgage banking system.

It may equal the taxpayer rescue of Northern Rock in Britain, and possibly exceed it in proportion to the overall size of Spain's economy.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/28/bcnspain128.xml

Mtl JP 22:54 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
NYAM 22:46 / but seeing that you are not Ben, do you think he has the strategic and tactical wherewithal to engage in blood-drawing combat with Trichet ? Where do you think Noyer might fit in on the targeting range ?

Syd 22:51 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Has anyone thoughts on Aud up here pre the noise this week

Syd 22:50 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 22:46 yes thats true, probably in the form of a rate cut earlier than they wish for

London NYAM 22:46 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Syd 22:40//I wonder how the Fed will get pay back on Trichet for not passing on the inside info? i wonder if a secret retaliatiry strike is possible. if i were Ben, I would be looking for blood across the oceon...

Syd 22:45 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Shares of American Express Co. (AXP) fell 2.7% to $46.10 in after-hours trading Monday after the credit-card and travel-services giant said its fourth-quarter net income dropped 9.9% as the company set aside more money to cover higher delinquencies and loan write-offs amid rising credit-card losses and a slowdown in consumer spending.

The company, which warned of a weakening U.S. economy earlier this month, reported net income of $831 million, or 71 cents a share, compared with $922 million, or 75 cents a share, a year earlier. dj

Syd 22:40 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
they are keeping stum - can you blame them what idiots

Mtl JP 22:38 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Syd 21:56 - and what is the FED saying ?

Syd 21:56 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Markets ask if the Fed was duped
The Federal Reserve had no inkling about Société Générale's fire sale of stock futures, following the discovery of a rogue trader, when the US central bank made its emergency interest rate cut.

The question being asked now by some in the markets is: was the Fed bounced into its move by the clean-up operation for Jérôme Kerviel's mammoth losses?

Many traders believe that without SocGen's huge derivatives sales, the mood in the stock markets would not have been as bleak.
LINK

seattle AW 21:50 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
The move to massively increase conforming loan limits should be seen as an attempt to prop up the Jumbo housing market using treasury investor underwritten Pork. This can not be good for USD, and has already made it through the house.

dc CB 21:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
BRK.A Berkshire Hathaway will expand bond insurer nationwide, regulators say - Bloomberg

seattle AW 21:35 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
...it will cause a reversal of this trend, at the expense of the economy and its own legacy!

seattle AW 21:34 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Massive trade U.S. imbalances, current & forseeable defecit spending, and the impending collapse of the Marshall plan petrodollar will guarantee that monied interests in the U.S. choose inflation over total economic collapse since so much of their wealth is in real estate. They will keep rates low to avoid another great depression. The loser here is USD vs. CAD and EUR, but not relative to JPY which pantomimes USD.

The issue is one of relative corruption, inflationary spending, excess, and profitability, driving the USD to test new lows.

If the new White house changes policy to pay off the defecit, driving up rates and causing a scarcity of funds,

Syd 20:51 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
bilbao pedro 20:41 agree but have seen this happen

Syd 20:50 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
PRESS RELEASE: S&P Cuts 3 Fannie Mae REMIC Trust

isr jweb 20:48 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
syd & co. the market says differently for short term..

bilbao pedro 20:41 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
SYD, could not agree more with that Dow Jones report....and I am not a dollar lover.....But you got to be crazy to favor the Euro at these levels over the dollar....
For all your interest, I am buying Dec 2008 1.40 puts on the Euro for 2.4.....
lol

Syd 20:35 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
(Dow Jones)--The dollar could rise against the euro if the market receives its hoped-for interest rate cut Wednesday, contrary to the textbooks.

The Federal Reserve's recently lowered interest rates have changed the way the buck functions on the currency market, so the euro zone's stronger economy may not necessarily translate into a stronger euro for much longer, say currency analysts.

Conventional wisdom dictates that the higher the interest rates, the more a currency will likely appreciate because higher rates make assets denominated in that currency more attractive to investors.

Analysts give several reasons why the dollar's performance could fly in the face of the theories taught to in Economics 101 if the Fed, as expected, lowers its benchmark rate again at the conclusion of this week's poicy-setting meeting.

First, in a risk-averse environment, the low-yielding dollar rakes in fearful investors, no matter its lower yield. The dollar could benefit from an unwinding of risky positions in higher-yielding currencies, such as the euro.Second, the Fed's recent precautionary rate cuts put the U.S. ahead of the curve as the world economy slows down, which will instill strength in the buck, according to currency analysts.

In addition, the euro's marked rise in late 2007 has stretched the value of the currency. Analysts predict the euro zone will undeniably submit to the tidal wave encircling the U.S. economy now, limiting the region's growth and inflation concerns, allowing for a future rate cut. Plus, simply, the euro is overvalued.

Syd 20:29 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Article dated 22/1/08

UPDATE: Will Subprime Crisis Cool China Growth?
Among China's biggest banks, Bank of China is seen having the most exposure to international assets. Shares fell sharply Monday after the South China Morning Post, citing unnamed sources, said the lender may post severely reduced 2007 net profit or even a loss after writing down part of its nearly $8 billion in securities backed by subprime mortgages.

LINK

GENEVA DS 20:25 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Maribor , you might be right on Gold.... whole day big time buying out of Asia and Far East for Diversification purposes.... uuupppsss... good luck

Maribor 20:23 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Anybody else having possible long term turning level 926,6 for gold?

Syd 20:17 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 20:15 GMT thanks , that should be interesting if they all come clean :-))

Como Perrie 20:15 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
tks Syd

see the previous onto decoupling, there's an interesting part onto asean economies written too there.

btw have heard tomorrow's London meeting to call upon banks to disclose hidden losses and a new regulation.

Think It was proposed at some G7 in the past from Germany already, but not accepted.

Syd 20:07 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Global Worries Overshadow NZD Yield Premium-BNZ

Syd 20:05 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Sub-prime crisis losses could cost Fortis £750m
FORTIS, the Belgian bank that was part of the successful RBS-led consortium that bought ABN Amro last year, said today that losses stemming from the US sub-prime crisis could be around £750 million.

And that means that its profits for 2007 could come in at around £2.23 billion, rather than previous forecasts for £2.97bn.

Fortis has been under pressure to make a statement on its exposure after weekend reports suggested it may have to write off up to £1.5bn from its sub-prime portfolio.

The world's biggest banks have already said they are facing total combine losses from the sub-prime sector – which focuses on lending to people with poor credit histories of unreliable income – of more than £100bn.
http://business.scotsman.com/business/Subprime-crisis-losses-could-.3716628.jp

Como Perrie 19:58 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Decoupling is yesterday's story," Stuart Schweitzer, a global strategist at JP Morgan Private Bank, said. "Last year, when the U.S. slowdown was driven almost entirely by housing, it made sense that the rest of the world kept right on going. Housing is a domestic story, plain and simple.

"The nature of the slowdown has changed in two key respects. The credit crunch that began in midsummer is not just a U.S. phenomenon; the rise in risk aversion is global and will have an impact on credit terms and availability everywhere. And we're finally seeing evidence that the U.S. job market is losing steam and consumer spending is slowing."





http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/01/27/business/26delink.php

Como Perrie 19:48 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Btw has anyone seen anything of the following I just found.

On Monday, watch for potential trouble from ING and Fortis, banking/insurance/wealth management conglomerates that, according to Reuters, may have a profit warning to announce.

Syd 19:44 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
(Dow Jones)--The high for the euro's current long-term upside is last November's high of $1.4971. The euro's reactive sell-off to $1.4308 last month raises the question whether the November high was a failed test of formal technical resistance at $1.4935. Certainly, the euro's upside momentum, its rate of uptrend, since November has been falling. That by itself suggests that the euro, although it has edged up to $1.4790 as of this writing, may be set up for an extended correction. If so then long-term traders have to give it room to dip to $1.3888 support by the end of February.
A move below $1.3888, if it's confirmed by decisive trading below $1.3623, would be a technical breakdown on the long-term charts. In that case, the euro would be pointed down to initial long-term support at $1.2648. Of course, a decisive move above $1.4971, to new highs for the current uptrend, would have the opposite effect. Specifically, such a development would point the euro up to a relatively wide band of initial resistance between $1.4846 and $1.5200.

Gen dk 19:43 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 19:42 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
French Budget Min: Europeans Are Paying For Weak Dollar
PARIS (Dow Jones)--Europeans are paying for the weak U.S. dollar, French Budget Minister Eric Woerth said Monday.
"We're paying for it ourselves," Woerth said in an interview on French TV station i-Tele. "It's difficult to sell our products." Woerth said there was a danger that part of a potential slowdown in the U.S. could be exported to Europe and that it would be necessary to use all tools available to fight slowing growth. He said the French government believes the European Central Bank "could go further" in taking into account the difficulties of the European economy.
"The fight against inflation is one thing, but at the same time, the best way to share out purchasing power is growth," Woerth said.


Halifax CB 19:40 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
seattle AW 18:50 GMT January 28, 2008
My own view is that USD/CAD, if not exactly in an uptrend, is certainly no longer in the downtrend it was in for the last 5 years. The effect of CAD strength is really beginning to be felt up here via factory closings and such staples to the economy as pulp & paper & lumber - to say nothing of the retail effects (most Canadians live within an hour or two of the US border). A final worry is that even the oil sands project is taking on some darker overtones - from the murmurings of discontent from Central Canada (they hate it when the rest of us aren't kept in our proper impoverished state), to the various regs going into effect in the States that would keep oil sands oil out because of the large "carbon footprint". Anyway, the easy ride is over....

St. Annaland Bob 19:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:32 GMT January 28, 2008

""you don't need an analyst to blowup your own FX trading a/c, a fake friend or mate will do fine for you"" - Bob Sponge

go ahead guys and post your bones ... may the newer traders will realize the warning.

Como Perrie 19:32 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
:))) see the last market forecasts here...maybe the real last ones

http://www.socgen.com/sg/socgen/pid/169/context/SC/lang/en/nodo
ctype/0.htm


PS

"You don't need the Weatherman to know where the wind blows"
Bob Dylan

Makassar Alimin 19:14 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
NYAM, you have my agreement on that gbpusd trade, direction is same however i am positioned in swissy, best of luck

Como Perrie 19:12 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
In a smaller town in southern Italy one to become municipal political advisor has killed the person ahead of him so to get into the quota for the seat. It happened in the 2005 and today was arrested.

Como Perrie 19:07 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
I'll just watch tomorrow's London meeting.

PS tks Rob..It fits with the tomorrow's euroland risks speeches.

PAR 19:03 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Yen carry trades supporting Gold, Silver Platinum , Crude , Wheat and most other commodities. If US interest decline further USD will become the next funding currency for the commodity supercycle .

Syd 18:55 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
S&P Sees Further Credit Quality Weakening Ahead
Global bond markets have cause to be nervous on myriad fronts in early 2008, ranging from rising risk premiums, higher probability of downgrades, accelerated distress (from very low levels), and the looming specter of an eventual upswing in the default cycle from all-time lows, according to a report published today by Standard & Poor's. The report, titled "Global Corporate And Sovereign Rating Actions: Fourth-Quarter 2007 (Premium Edition)," says that much of the maelstrom in the short-term debt and mortgage-related markets has shaken investor sentiment considerably, even though collateral damage in the corporate bond market has so far been limited. Defaults will tick up from record lows near 1%, more meaningfully in the later half of 2008 and continuing into 2009. Our 12-month forward (November 2008) speculative-grade baseline default rate forecast is 3.4% in the U.S., much higher than the current level. Financial strategies implemented during the preceding five boom years have insulated even the most vulnerable entities, allowing them to continue meeting financial obligations and forestalling payment default, despite the tighter lending landscape. The default-rate trajectory should escalate over the next couple of years based on the cumulative impact of the changes in the credit-pricing environment, an increase in refunding needs, and a slowing economy.In 2008, spreads are expected to remain elevated as long as the economy remains weak, profitability worsens, and downgrade/default pressures intensify.
dow

seattle AW 18:51 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
...SMARMINESS

seattle AW 18:50 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
SO WHO WAS SAYING THAT USD/CAD WAS HEADING UP NOT DOWN? AT THE RISK OF

London NYAM 18:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Alimin//You are right its rough. Being forced to trade for 30-50 pips a go scalping I guess. But i do think some tradeble breakouts will occur prior to the meeting. Considering a long G?J around 211.50 if this triangulates a potential whopping (right) 70-90p. But if itdoesnt break below 211.80 then it could gostraight to 214+. Ill leave the limits and enjoy the evening.
Ciao mm.

Syd 18:32 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
BERLIN (Dow Jones)--The situation in global financial markets will remain precarious and should last well into 2008, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said Monday, adding the turmoil will take its toll on German and European growth.
Still, he warned against too much pessimism because economic fundamentals in the European Union remain robust.
Speaking at the New Year reception of Frankfurt's stock market operator Deutsche Boerse AG (DB1.XE), Steinbrueck also said the current financial market correction is no surprise.
It's a "necessary correction of excesses, exaggerations and exorbitance which have been built up over the past months and years," Steinbrueck said, according to the text of a prepared speech. "That's one reason why I - like many others too - believe that the situation on the markets will remain precarious and hasn't been overcome yet, but we will have to deal with it for a long time in the course of 2008."
Turbulence won't be limited to financial markets but will spill over to the economy, in particular to the U.S. where one has to expect "a significant growth weakening," he said.
"We will also feel something of it in our real economy in Europe and Germany," Steinbrueck said. Still, he stressed that there is no reason to be too pessimistic regarding the growth outlook. However, he repeated that risks stemming from oil prices and the euro have increased.

Syd 18:21 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
DJ German Fin Min: Fincl Mkt Situation To Remain Precarious
Difficult Fincl Mkt Situation To Extend Into '08
Current Fincl Mkt Changes 'Necessary Correction'

Risks Of Systemic Fin Mkt Crisis Up Over Past Yrs

Expects Significant Weakening Of Growth In US

Europe, Germany Econ To Be Affected By Mkt Turmoil

The Netherlands Purk 18:20 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
late break gives 14825-44 in e/u. 14799 is there to break. We will see...

mad 18:19 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
An FX trader in the making , no doubt whatsoever !!!!

It's a bit long (4 mins) but the end is well worth it.
8-)

Click here!

mad 18:18 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
An FX trader in the making , no doubt whatsoever !!!!

It's a bit long (4 mins) but the end is well worth it.
8-)

Click here!" target="_blank"> Click here!

cairo mr 18:10 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
big chance now buy Nikki 225 u will got at least 500 pipe

mad 18:04 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Bobby, i thought about it.. 8-)

Wavenman, there is one, the lawyers are on it. 8-)

This is for the newbies and not ....so newbies from make my day Clint Eastwood punk -

"If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster"

8-)

Makassar Alimin 18:01 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 17:42 GMT January 28, 2008

NYAM, i have my view posted in other forum, i am just a rookie to be able to post here ;)
i am seeing doubles here, time to go to bed :)
hehe, honestly if i must say, it is better to stay aside until after FOMC, it is kind of a gamble as if telling Fed what to do, unless of course one has a very very deep pocket

Syd 17:57 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
COUNTRYWIDE Financial bondholders saw Kenneth Lewis as a knight in shining armour when the Bank of America chairman and chief executive announced a takeover of the mortgage lender.

Now some are having doubts that he will ride to their rescue.

The reason: the largest US bank in stock market value has given few details about what will happen to about $US25 billion ($28.5 billion) in Countrywide bonds as part of the deal.

As a result, some bondholders are worried that Bank of America will structure the agreement so it does not fully back the mortgage lender's debt obligations.

If that happens, Countrywide's debt may not rise in value to levels more in line with Bank of America bonds.
wall street journal

Syd 17:55 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Investor fends off Allco margin call
MAJOR shareholder in struggling financial engineering group Allco Finance Group (AFG) is close to staving off a margin call on $180 million in loans that would force the sale of a 14 per cent parcel of AFG shares.
API was last week forced to sell 22 million shares in AFG and a further 22 million in New Zealand financing offshoot Allco HIT Ltd after two banks called in margin loans because of a sharp drop in the AFG share price.

The Australian understands that a heads of agreement with the lending banks will be announced as early as today to forestall any margin call until after the release of the group's financial results on February 15.
But despite the recent rebound in its share price, AFG's stock is still almost $10, or 75 per cent, down from its level last February.

Some observers believe that time is up for complex and highly leveraged financial groups such as Allco.


London NYAM 17:53 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
mm//I thought there was a copyright issue potential there :)
MADM:Mad man or Madrid m? hmmm.
That blasted cross is serving up so many cross-current-counts. Poor behaviour. 209.05 below and 212.90 above only decent decision points for >50p.

St. Annaland Bob 17:49 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
MMAN ... make the mad in capitals like that: MAD ... can one imagine SNB allowing USD/CHF to fall below 10820 before the FED comes out? ... should one consider the FED cutting rates by 33% within two weeks as illogic or not? (4.5% to 3%) ... think about and remember that trading against amigo VALDEZ is dangerous, but he made his stop known ;)

mad 17:45 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
I am here waveman, look closely it is just that it is quicker to write just mad instead of madrid mm because for whatever reason my pc is not saving my city and initials...Must be my new pc cleaner that erases everything on a regular basis

8-)

The market may be bad, but I slept like a baby last night. I woke up every hour and cried.

8-)

London NYAM 17:42 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Speaking of Rookies, where has mm gone? Or is there only room for one crazy Madridian on the forum?
Alimin//Its been an amazing whipsawing day no doubt, the market is completely unbalanced and schizoid. Decent tradng ranges but its all really tight breaks stops and playing for decent r/rs. Long swings seem done by 10:00 GMT. Doubtless Aian session will open up some ranges. Hoping we bcan get a decent drop in this GBP and or GBPJPY for a bigger swing. You seeing anything?

Hasselt Red 17:34 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:43 GMT January 28

zeus , you have a potential target in sight? thnx

mad 17:32 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:24// Double Rookie balboa ;)

Makassar Alimin 17:30 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
NYAM and Bob, hahaha if only... ;)

St. Annaland Bob 17:28 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:24// Rookie ;)

London NYAM 17:27 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:24// Rookie ;)

Mtl JP 17:27 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
"With the FOMC decision looming and the U.S. at an interest rate disadvantage, the dollar is having trouble," said Jay Meisler, principal of Global-view.com, an online forum for dealers and investors.

"The dollar seems more on the defensive in general ahead of the FOMC, but I think a 25 basis points rate cut may be the best possible outcome for markets because it keeps the stimulus going without a sense of panic."- Reuters

The Netherlands Purk 17:25 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
First short in e/u: 14787.
There is more to come, but i just like the level...

Makassar Alimin 17:24 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:36 GMT January 28, 2008

thanks but dont worry or presume anything, i know what i am doing...it was general comment of what i feel the state of the current market is, good luck and good trades

Syd 17:20 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
FTSE 100 dealers need their tin hats
LINK

Syd 17:10 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
dj Moody's Withdraws Rating For Abcp Issued By Rhineland Funding Cap Corp
Fitch Withdraws Rtgs For Development Banks

PAR 17:02 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Coincidence ?

LINK

USA Zeus 16:56 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:54 GMT January 28, 2008

Please pardon the typos.

USA Zeus 16:54 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 16:49 GMT January 28, 2008

Shorting Comex contracts.

As for trading and emotions...Trading is 100% emotions long or short regardless of what they say. There is nothing less than a decision made by a human (black boxes incl) who determins the trading logic and eventual consquence of prints.

Cheers!

Rio Tinto Cubriclas 16:53 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
buy usd/jpy 106,70
tp- 109,70

isr jweb 16:49 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
zeus whre do you get the 934 fguresfdo you have a special broker, or arentwe talkig about the same gold.

anyway regarding gold - if you are short dont you think your abit emotianal, fighting a solid trend?

USA Zeus 16:43 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
For the non- scalper-

EUR/USD to have a nice correction soon in order to show the USD bears what the strong USD policy is all about. Consider a few figures drop from these lofty levels.

USA Zeus 16:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
And added shorts again @ 934.80.

Will add a bit higher for next allocation

USA Zeus 16:34 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Added shorts @ 933.70

USA Zeus 16:26 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Short Comex gold @ 931.70
Will add higher if given the opportunity.

isr jweb 16:25 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
sold some eur/usd longs. waiting for another 1/4 at 1.4825 and another at the majic figure..

gold waiting for 940, not so far...

mad 16:22 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
I feel no rate cut from the FED this week

8-)

mad 16:18 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
...and gold keeps going up.... some new high XAU

NY Rob 16:16 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
if euro does not close above 1.48 today might be wise to step back for a while, take whatever has been given generously to us lately playing from long position and let FOMC gets out of the way first, after all we are close enough to 1.48

London Big Blind 16:13 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Target on usd/cad decreased to 0.9980.

hk ab 16:08 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Zeus nice job on gold front.

London NYAM 16:05 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
sofia kaprikorn 16:00//well spotted, ive been seing that too. They alternate on larger frame turn points, but on smaller time frames it seems that FX (yen crosses) have the edge.

sofia kaprikorn 16:00 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
actually looks like FX moves in advance... for example today in the EU session the EURJPY was pointing up while the indices were down..

and now those pretty violent headfakes in GBPJPY and USDJPY all add up to the high volatility of the recent sessions..

G. Soros says short term volatility is highest at turning points..

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:58 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Correct, dailies don't tell the whole story, nothing tells the "whole" story. Dailies just keep you out of the way of, or going with, the general direction of the freight train. Sure there's false starts and noise etc.. but remember I don't trade heavy until April when the mkt smooths out. If it's not then I just forget it and do other investment work. I don't limit myself to just FX. If FX wants to behave then I'm in, if not, I'm not. Dailies are only one of many tools but a tool that is way too neglected especially by newer traders. Was just making a point in my lifetime of investing/trading that the shorter the term one uses (unless he's got inside info) the higher the risk. It's up to traders to do what they want...win or lose.

I think one of the most interesting techs is Fibs but you have to use them best in longer term analysis.

Am out o' here, internet/platy unstable...have stuff to do, places to go, people to see, so see you all later after NT close. My platform is set on autopilot. GT all.

~~~~Chuck~~~~

Frankie Bandung 15:57 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
My target is done ..... Thanks guys ....
But ithink it still up .... may be 1.5 is near ....
oceh GL / GT

sofia kaprikorn 15:55 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
what crazy moves today - pretty high volatility...

mad 15:49 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
I ma confused

8-(0

Why isn't Yves coming on the wires today ?!?!?!?

8-)

NYC ET 15:48 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Vadez, looking at daily charts do not tell the full story. The daily ranges have been wide enough with enough false starts to goose out even some of those with longer time frames.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:43 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Yes, it's whippy for short term traders. Check daily charts on all major pairs though...you'll see a definite set of clear trends. What amazes me is the high population of scalpers here. But coinciding with that "scalper statistic", is what doesn't amaze me and that is the very small amount of those who actually succeed in the long term (1-5 years or more) at FX. Therefore....the shorter term you use for trading the higher your risk of failure. I think it's because most of 'em don't want to study enough (lazy essentially) to become long term and therefore successful traders.

Syd 15:43 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
DJ US Treasury Mortgage Plan Will Help Few Borrowers -GroupThe U.S. Treasury Department's plan to help homeowners modify their mortgages will only help 3% of subprime borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages, the Center for Responsible Lending said Monday.

The non-profit group said industry data suggest that only about 118,000 of the 3.7 million homeowners with existing subprime ARMs would be eligible to have the interest rate on their mortgage frozen under the Treasury plan.

"The Treasury plan will be a welcome relief for those it helps, but given the magnitude of today's economic woes, the plan won't help nearly enough to avoid further widespread economic damage from foreclosures," a statement from the Center said.
The group said its analysis also suggests that loan modifications initiated by lenders and through the Treasury plan are being vastly outnumbered by the number of foreclosures. Industry data suggest that there are seven times as many foreclosures initiated for every loan modification by a lender. For subprime ARMs the figure is worse: 13 foreclosures initiated for every one loan modification.

NYC ET 15:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
And the way forex is following stocks....

NYC ET 15:38 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Valdez, it is the whippy nature of the market that is making it difficult

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:36 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Alimin, just a suggestion, you -may- be trying to scalp too close, try to increase time span...trade using more time, hourly charts & dailies instead of 15 min - 5 min, perhaps. If you can't see or 'feel' long term trend developing, don't trade because you can get on the bad end of the trend & consistantly stop out. Therefore seeing a trend is pretty important. If you can't, simply don't trade, or play with & blow out your practice account.

St. Annaland Bob 15:34 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:24 GMT January 28, 2008

one week ahead and all Chinese will be out there will be to welcome the arrival of the rats ... early new RAT year greetings to all Chinese !!!

Syd 15:34 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:31 it takes a little time to sink in as you say GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:31 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Syd, tks for your posts. What many folks don't realize Syd is that these sad U.S. housing/loan default issues are infecting other countries' mkts fast. These days, what hits one hits 'em all. Soon - a snoball effect.

For all: I put a quip on HELP FORUM about the USA's financial organization and bank disintegration for those who just joined us for NY session. No banks, no loans, no credit, that destroys economy and the bleed over effect makes no country immune. Too many people view a country's economy as a regional thing rather than the reaity of it being a global thing.

Makassar Alimin 15:27 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
man, this is one clueless, stops-eating market, anything can be used as reason to justify every single move

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:24 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Placed limit sell swissy 1.0824, keeping active short @1.0913 tp 1.0827 stop 1.1011. Not a scalp, it's a day or swing trade, whatever it wants. Critical for me anyway if limit sell goes or not. Will probably add to possie more yet if it does. I don't place stops anywhere close, just my style...."kids, don't try this at home". I may build on this possie as time goes, it could be a long term. Already have CHF cncy instrument so in effect that's the same thing but with no leverage. Internet unstable between platform & me again...rats!

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 15:22 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Closed EUR/GBP short from a few days ago, now long at .7441. EUR/USD looks like it wants to go higher as well....we shall see...

Syd 15:21 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, says of the dismal new home sales data: "There is no sign yet of an end to the decline in activity and prices are collapsing ... Homebuilders are cutting production but with sales still collapsing they have to run to stand still."

Frankie Bandung 15:18 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Hi ... Guys .... long EUR/USD for 20 pips .... buy now ...
Thanks .... GL / GT

USA Zeus 15:12 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Thx Chuck

USA Zeus 15:11 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Sounds like a big gold correction is coming when this push runs out of steam....DROP!

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:11 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Give Zeus applause.

USA Zeus 15:10 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:56 GMT January 28, 2008
Short EUR/USD 1.4792

Covered 1.4771

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:08 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
That Dec. housing stat more than expected on the downside + Nov revision to the downside also, indicates Fed to cut -.50 or maybe even -.75 Wednesday since Fed is data hypersensitive now. Pro or contrary views, please give reasons.

St. Annaland Bob 15:08 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   

yeah, that's logic !!! ... in place of buying new house, people will buy gold bars ... in place of exporting to USA, factories worldwide will allow the workers to take days off to buy gold ... yeah, that's the spirit !!! ... gravity's call nears

St. Annaland Bob 15:07 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   

yeah, that's logic !!! ... in place of buying new house, people will but gold bars ... in place of exporting to USA, factories worldwide will the workers days off to buy gold ... yeah, that's the spirit !!! ... gravity's call nears

mad 15:03 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- CME Group Inc., the world's largest futures exchange, is in preliminary talks to acquire Nymex Holdings Inc. for about $11.1 billion to gain a stronghold in energy trading.

Syd 15:02 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
DJ US Dec New Home Sales -4.7% To 604,000 ; Consensus 650,000

US Nov New Home Sales Revised To 634,000 From 647,000


US Dec New Home Sales Hit Lowest In 12 Yrs

London DG 15:01 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
any one got housing stats

USA Zeus 14:56 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Short EUR/USD 1.4792

London Big Blind 14:54 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
ABHA FXS 14:25 GMT January 28, 2008
Allow me to moderate your enthusiasm since I looked on gbp/usd weekly chart where we can identify a diagonal resistance that has rejected the price by more than 400 pips, during 2 different weeks. This new week is above that resistance and in this case, sterling could mirror to 2.200. What I see now is that chf and usd have some room in reserve against dollar. 1.0890 and 1.4778 respectively which could fuel gbp above 1.9879.If 1.9879 is passed, I've got 1.9930 as next level.
GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:41 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Big fish waiting for FOMC int. cut confirmation the 30th. Data crucial because Fed claims to be influenced highly by data in these panic ridden days. Question is -.25 or -.50? Frankly a surprise of -.75 = USD shorter's paradise.

Am shorting USD/CHF: I've got one small possie put in this AM to watch & build on. Reasons:
1. 2 tests this month already of support, chart heading down now again sniffing support strength as if it wants to dive down into the depths. Swissy to me looks heavy.
2. Fed cut Weds...big fish eyeing confirmation & amount of Fed cut Weds to further sell USD. A -.25 although not spectacular is nevertheless more food for USD bears. USA's econ not good at all so I see Fed trying to further bail things out adn it's not apparently working (yet). Bush's tax rebate is pathetically inadequate of helping US econ...$1,500 will be spent away instantly by "Joe Blow Budweiser brain" with no real benefit. With 1 lousey grocery basket of food costing USD $240 or more, go figure.
3. CHF has gained over EUR GBP steadily on daily charts so I see CHF the best & safest vs USD. England consumer confidence down. Low USD high EUR spells trouble for EZ but there's nothing they can do about it...if USA's momentum DOWN keeps building, EZ's econ can have severe problems this year to fester into yet more severe issues late 2008-early 2009.

Counter reasons:
Since swissy hasn't managed to penetrate Res past 1.08s tells me some strong support lurks & I'm not talking just market but the unseen control tower. Therefore penetration into 1.07s is very meaningful.
2. At some point SNB will say "enough" & cut rates to keep up with USD..that's theory floating around, I just don't think it's wise to believe it. If SNB cuts rates it'll eye inflation risk first, conformation to other cncy's second.

Japan can't lower interest much more (THERE' AIN'T MUCH there TO CUT!) to keep yen up with USD's losses...Japanese industrialists worried, fearing less exports to USA's consumers holding low USDs. BoJ in a quandry. Tokyo stocks way down, HK also today. Will be interesting what NYSE has to display this AM.

Gen dk 14:37 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lagos FXStallion 14:25 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
GBPUSD 3rd target of 1.9874 hit!

ABHA FXS 14:25 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
SHORT GBPUSD 1.9876 T 1.9682
ADDED AT 1.9900 T 1.9682

NICE TRADE

mad 14:23 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
it looks definitely strange when usd/yen and euro/usd move in tandem in the same direction More so when " soit disant" important news (?) are some 40 minutes away....

But then again this is a strange world..

8-)



Syd 14:15 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Lawyers for Jerome Kerviel say Societe Generale (13080.FR) created a "smokescreen" to divert attention from other losses, FT reports. Kerviel's attorneys say their client didn't "commit any dishonest act, nor embezzle a single cent, and he in no way benefited from the bank's funds," the paper reports. The lawyers also claim the way Societe General unwound the trades caused the losses, rather than Kerviel's actions http://www.ft.com/cms/s/a0d5ca2c-cd28-11dc-9b2b-000077b07658.html

Haifa ac 14:15 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
dubai 14:12 GMT January 28//Are you the guy that Jerome recommended here a while ago?!

London Big Blind 14:13 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
You can sell usd/cad and bet on the parity, stop 20 pips or a 30 mins open above 1.0085.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:12 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
dubai, you have broken many forum rules. Adios.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:10 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Most folks don't really know about the credit crunch. I've explained one part of it in Help Forum for those who don't know how dangerous this is to world economy stability. quito_ecuador_valdez 13:53 GMT January 28, 2008

"The old addage, stocks down, USD up" may not apply now...equities in Asian & London are down substantially, waiting for a tank in NY. I see safe house stuff soaring more than it has due to this and some panic selloffs this week and next. I'm afraid 2008 is going to be a lousey year that may lead into more lousey years financially for many.

Stocks are only really worth what the mkt will pay for them. The hard core real worth of any company is what it can be sold for at auction. That's it. You and I both know stocks are worth 100s of times on the mkt than that. Tells you stocks are basically just hype, demand, air. As people realize this they'll sell and go to safe house investments. $1000+ Au is going to be one of them...well, it is now...the future looks dim so that's my positive take on prec. metals. USD is going to tank if things keep up the way they are. And the rest of the main currencies with it.

London Big Blind 14:10 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Above 106.79, usd/jpy ( which is "late" compare to gpb, eur or chf), can easily catch 107.05 and I actually think it can reach 107.30

london 13:54 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
OT//
No pro like an old pro..
Link

Lagos FXStallion 13:51 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
We could be seeing price on the gbpusd going to 1.9874 in no time.
Gold prices climbed towards record levels again in Monday''s early U.S. trading. February-dated gold contracts traded for $918.60, up $7.90 on the session. The precious metal reached as high as $922.30 in electronic trading, just off Friday''s record intraday mark of $924.30. Traders are looking for another interest rate cut next week - this time of either 25 or even 50 basis points - when the Federal Open Market Committee concludes its highly-anticipated two-day meeting. This comes after the Fed''s surprise 75 basis point cut to 3.5 percent last week in an effort to stop the economy from slipping into a clear recession. Gold closed higher again on Friday in U.S. , ending at $910.70, up $10.80 on the session. Prices soared past the $900 an ounce again on Thursday. March gold settled at $905.80, up $22.70 on the session. Gold finished lower on Wednesday in U.S. trading after a volatile session. Overall, gold has gained more than $60 an ounce since reaching a six-week low on Tuesday morning. On the economic front, new home sales data for the month of December is expected at 10 a.m. ET, with experts expecting to see a slight decline to 645,000. Data released last week, existing home sales showed a 2.2% decline to an annual rate of 4.89 million units in December. On Tuesday, durable goods data and a consumer confidence report is planned. GDP data is coming on Wednesday morning.

mad 13:44 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
as long as we are profitable !!!

mad 13:44 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
8-)

St. Annaland Bob 13:29 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
mad 13:26 GMT January 28, 2008

that's good ... you may end living for more then 40K years in your calender uses one day as one year ... back to XAU, the next $70 are down as far I can see for this year ;)

mad 13:26 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob , my year runs from any date i like and decide

8-)

USA Zeus 13:21 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
hk ab 12:19 GMT January 28, 2008

Looks like it could test higher a bit more before a pullback.

Lagos FXStallion 13:21 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
The Bank of England''s David Blanchflower reportedly said that the interest rates are restrictive at their current levels and must be lowered to avoid a slowdown in growth. Consumer confidence is low in the UK economy, Blanchflower told the Guardian in an interview. The evidence from the housing market, especially the commercial property market is adding concern, the report stated. In January, eight policy makers of the Bank of England, or BoE, voted in favor of the proposition to maintain the base rate, while one voted against. The BoE retained its key interest rate at 5.5% in January, after lowering it by 25 basis points in December. Most members felt that short-run inflation outlook had worsened markedly in January.Blanchflower reportedly said, "Worrying about inflation at this time seems like fiddling while Rome burns."Last week, the BoE Governor Mervyn King warned against a surge in inflation and slower economic growth in the UK in 2008. King spoke after the US Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point cut in its benchmark interest rate.

St. Annaland Bob 13:17 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
mad 13:16 GMT January 28, 2008

the year has around 95% to go ahead ... think about it ;)

mad 13:16 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
it feels like gold could be on its way to 1000 us$ this year ...

8-)

mad 13:14 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- SLM Corp., the biggest U.S. educational lender, said it received commitments for $31 billion of 364-day financing from banks including Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.

The financing will replace the $30 billion interim credit put in put by those banks in connection with a buyout bid that failed last year, Reston, Virginia-based SLM, known as Sallie Mae, said today in a statement on Business Wire. A lawsuit over the buyout will be dismissed, according to the statement.

Lagos FXStallion 13:09 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Ist 20 pip target on gbpusd hit...next target should be 1.9844..
Target hit! and going to the upside

Gen dk 13:09 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

mad 13:06 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
...or SocGen unloading some more

8-)

USA Zeus 13:06 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Alright all out of swing allocations on GBP/USD @ 1.9844 and G/J @ 212.02 for some tidy gains.

Como Perrie 13:05 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
yeap as Dow recovered above 12200

mad 13:03 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
nice little spike in usd/yen
8-)

Como Perrie 13:02 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
tomorrow joint communique rtrs report from the euro four nation meeting in london ref debt.

cairo mr 12:59 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
i think the gbp/usd is going to slide and i expect 1.9600 to be the resistence

London Big Blind 12:57 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
(I meant eur/usd targets 1.4741 not 1.4714!)

London Big Blind 12:55 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
I have 1.0059 for usd/cad as the good opportunity for bulls to recover the trend , below this point, the access to the parity can be , in my opinion , serioulsy considered.Right now, small time frames show a little interest in buying usd/cad , there isn't particular news to digest sure, but still, this makes the chart developping a bearish momentum.
Above 211.23, gbp/jpy frees the potential to 211.76, a confirmation of this could be helped by eur/jpy above 157.02
gbp/usd has given a signal suggesting 1.9879 , it has to open above 1.9830 to confirm
eur/usd targets 1.4714 then 1.4778 and 1.4815 as long as 1.4705 holds.
GT
Those calculations are valid till 4 pm GMT

London NYAM 12:48 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Maybe an oportunity for longing gbpusd under 1.97.xx may be developing. Consequently, a parallel possibility in GBPJPY under 211.xx. Better r/r if it happens prefer not to chance a short.

Syd 12:44 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
The 'big' house price slump may be upon us

Roger Bootle, economic adviser to Deloitte and a Telegraph columnist has warned that the "big one", referring to a sharp fall in house prices, may be upon us and that there is a risk the economy will slip into a full-blown recession.
The UK is facing its bleakest period of growth since the recession of the early 1990s. Mr Bootle, who is also managing director of Capital Economics, said that a "prolonged" economic downturn of more than a year may force employers to "wield the axe more sharply than in briefer downturns."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/28/bcnbootle128.xml

Makassar Alimin 12:42 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
i just think that stimulus provided by Bush's administration will not be as effective as it was originally planned, simply because the process takes too long

Como Perrie 12:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
as I see gold is into a minor lateral phase, might go down some 5 to 10 bucks maybe

hk ab 12:19 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Zeus any light shed on gold?

Como Perrie 11:42 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/02/04/080204fa_fact_mueller

Como Perrie 11:31 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
tomorrow in London four top euro nations meeting is scheduled ref debt concerns. Britain Germany France and Italy...guess the italian uncapability to economic growth situation will be also talked

Como Perrie 11:16 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
dunno ..my impression is that the buck might get some lift but maybe later on onto the Bush economy relief plan speech

mad 10:57 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Yen surge creating vicious circle for Japan

By Eric Burroughs
TOKYO, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The yen's surge to a three-year high against the dollar threatens to trap an already tepid economy in a vicious circle, with the currency's sharp gains hitting local stocks and undermining the country's key exporters.
A strong yen is making life tricky for Japanese policymakers because it has almost nothing to do with the economy's own health, instead reflecting the fear gripping investors around the world about a painful U.S. recession.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7261212

The Netherlands Purk 10:56 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Looking to short e/u again. Patterns in u/j still the same. So i did what i have to do. Range e/u not matured yet so gonna eat some and pay attention.
I know that some people dont short or long when they sleep, but some put orders in when they sleep, and some never sleep.

sofia kaprikorn 10:26 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind .........

tnx for ur answer - just was interested in other's people reading of the market

London Big Blind 10:23 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
sofia kaprikorn 10:01 GMT January 28, 2008
I don't use Fibo or previous highs/lows, just the openings on small and large timeframe based on a set of moving averages.
Out of usd/cad. I consider that below 1.0085 is good to sell for resume of downtrend.

Como Perrie 10:17 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Spotforex Ny 10:10 GMT January 28, 2008

:)))))


Insanity in individuals is something rare - but in groups, parties, nations and epochs, it is the rule.
Friedrich Nietzsche (1844 - 1900)

Spotforex Ny 10:10 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 10:04

talk about demand elasticity. Results posted in a snap (unsnap?) election by retailers

Como Perrie 10:10 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955), (attributed)

Como Perrie 10:07 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
euro stock markets slid as SocGen loss might be bigger more than smaller after justice dept. make the complex verifications.

Como Perrie 10:04 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
The economy that works:))

UK supermarket to offer women bra price equality

sofia kaprikorn 10:01 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind 09:40 ..........

interesting to watch your trading - you long it on the break of the recent high 1.0110 and aim at approximately 61.8% retracement of the last move from 1.0255 > 1.0010

Syd 09:42 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
The USD is under pressure as uncertainty rises over whether the Fed will cut rates by 25bp or 50bp Wednesday. A sharp fall in equity markets has lifted risk aversion again, providing support for the JPY. The market is now looking for Bush to flesh out details of a US fiscal package as the IMF warns that other countries may have to follow suit with fiscal easing. dj

London Big Blind 09:40 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
short usd/cad reversed. Now long above 1.0110 for 1.0160. I watch it closely, I'll close if it can't hold 1.0110

USA Zeus 09:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
I feel like the luckiest Joe ever!

Out of G/J scalps @ 211.00 and GBP/USD scalps @ 1.9800 all for some juicy gains! :-)

Happy Day!

mad 09:15 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
A trader' s paradise ?!?!!?

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The securities industry's unprecedented writedowns from last summer's seizure in the credit market are proving a boon for the exchanges in Chicago, London, New York and Frankfurt, where stocks and bonds never have changed so many hands. Click here!

London Big Blind 09:13 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
(for 155.90) sorry

London Big Blind 09:13 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Short eur/jpy at 156.80 for 156.90, stop 157.10

Como Perrie 09:11 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
It was also interesting to observe the wikipedia list of losses some printed here the other day. How unreliabale are they.

Now the court has to evaluate the case, reconsier the whole and figure out responsiblities and amounts.

So the loss printed on media is countless and so might not be considered till justice makes It course.

So far the Kerviel defense line is that he did not take any money from It, and that It was the Finance top bank's managment that sold complex debt structured assets in the amount of 50 billions euros generating the 5 billion euros loss, then dropped into his books in strange manners.

It will be interesting to follow the case once the justice deparments starts to clear It out. Till then (apart the lossess which are certain, those at least as there might be others) responsibilities will stay unknown, even if newswriters will love to speculate upon It.

Syd 09:04 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
DJ ECB: Euro-Zone Dec M3 +11.5% On Year; Forecast +12.1%

Como Perrie 09:01 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
So am favouring US markets more than others, not really for the theater and economic near 0 growth in Italy, but more for the many SocGen we do have here. Socgen without national help might get delisted for some time as the loss is equal to the banks capital.

Syd 08:53 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Only 70% Probability Of A 50Bps Fed Cut - RBS

Como Perrie 08:52 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
In between am smiling towards the autolesionistic italian politics, so not to cry. This morn rightwind top politician called for a march onto Rome ( reminiscensce of a coup that was made in the worst years of this country in the 1922)

Syd 08:51 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
BOE's Blanchflower: UK Interest Rates "Restrictive" - Report
The Bank of England should learn from the U.S. Federal Reserve and take preemptive action to prevent economic growth from stalling, the UK's Guardian newspaper reported Monetary Policy Committee member David Blanchflower as saying Monday.
"The evidence from the housing market, and especially the commercial property market, is worrying. Consumer confidence is low in the U.K.," he said. "Interest rates are restrictive at their current levels and that is why I have been voting for cuts."
He said worrying about inflation at this time seemed like fiddling while Rome burns and the MPC should be aiming to "get ahead of the curve".
"It is time for the MPC to lead, rather than follow," he said. Blanchflower was the only MPC member to vote for a cut in U.K. interest rates at the BoE's January rate-setting meeting. The majority of MPC members noted that the short-run inflation outlook had worsened markedly and found that an immediate cut in rates wasn't necessary.

The Bank main rate stands at 5.5% following December's 25 basis point reduction - the first since August 2005. Market participants widely expect the BoE to reduce rates about 100 basis points this year, with the first cut coming in February.

Blanchflower said the U.K. won't escape fallout from the U.S. housing market slump and financial market turbulence that prompted the Fed to slash rates by 75 basis points last week.

"There is actually no credible empirical evidence of decoupling. Recession in the U.S. will impact the U.K. negatively in terms of output and jobs," he said.

"Britain is more dependent on the financial sector than is the case in the U.S.," he said. "Also, the housing bubble is greater in the U.K., based on house price to earnings ratios."
Dow Jones Newswires

Wellington, N.Z. 08:46 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
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Syd 08:42 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
*DJ Swedish Ctrl Bker: Fincl Mkt Unrest Not Over
Crisis May Be More Profound Than First Seen

Gen dk 08:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London Big Blind 08:37 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
out of short gbp/jpy, by staying above 210.70, there is a risk to see 211.23 , then 211.76

mad 08:28 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
an. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The best bets in the currency market may be Australia, New Zealand and Brazil, where economists predict central bankers will keep interest rates unchanged, or even raise them, while growth continues unabated on rising exports to China. Click here!

Como Perrie 08:28 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
there looks some a 50 points might be made onto upper dow

Syd 08:28 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
There have been a couple of large overnight negatives for sterling announced, with more evidence of a slowdown in the UK housing market and very dovish remarks from MPC member David Blanchflower. Hometrack reported a 0.3% drop in UK house prices in January, with the year-year rate slowing to 2.3% from 3%. MPC super-dove Blanchflower, in an interview with The Guardian newspaper, said worrying about inflation at this time seems like fiddling while Rome burns. He said current UK rates were restrictive, and he wanted to see cuts.

London Big Blind 08:24 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
stop raised on usd/cad at 1.0125

Syd 08:22 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
dj Speculators continued to cut their net short USD positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange even after the Fed slashed interest rates last week, says RBC Capital Markets. The bank notes that the slump in global equities and the unwinding of carry trades had helped to push the amount of net shorts down to 93,518 on January 22 from 120,875 on January 18. Although USD gains were unwound after the Fed move on the 22nd, USD net shorts still declined, the bank reports. Meanwhile, JPY net longs were pushed sharply higher, CHF longs were increased while GBP net positions fell back into short territory and AUD, CAD and NZD net longs declined

Como Perrie 08:20 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
FED funds last week were pricing for another rate cut to come from FED 1/4 most probably..

Syd 08:18 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Forex Focus: Euro Looking Vulnerable To Nasty Fall
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro could be headed for a nasty fall. At the moment, the single currency is being well supported against the dollar by continued hawkishness at the European Central Bank and by the steady trail of bad economic news from the U.S. However, all this may well change. Evidence appeared last week that yield differentials are no longer providing the help they once did and that the euro zone too could soon start to suffer from the U.S. slowdown. "Clearly the euro zone will not escape unscathed from slowing U.S. growth and the pressure to cut rates will build over coming months, which in turn will put downward pressure on the euro," said Mitul Kotecha, chief currency strategist with Calyon Credit Agricole in London.
Although data from the euro zone economy still shows occasionally positive surprises, such as last week's upturn in the latest Ifo survey from Germany, other indicators show a steady deterioration as the global credit crunch, triggered by the subprime crisis in the U.S., takes its toll. Analysts were particularly concerned, for example, by the sharp fall in the purchasing manager's index for service industries last month, suggesting that this might well signal an even faster downturn in the region.

London Big Blind 08:18 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Short gbp/jpy for 210.18 and more if below , stop 211
Also short usd/cad for resume of downtrend, stop 1.0115 target 1.000.

Como Perrie 08:04 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
aftertomorrow FED on previous

Como Perrie 08:02 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
US stocks might get a lift here and into tomorrow's FOMC

Syd 08:01 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Rising Risk Of EUR Fall
[Dow Jones] The risks of a nasty EUR fall could rise as yield premiums fail to provide the support they once did and the euro zone economy shows more signs of suffering from the US slowdown.

Amman wfakhoury 07:54 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
lagos
===
hk the previous action...it is already now in hedge.
gbp.usd add buy stop 19780 sl 19730 due 19730 filled.

Lagos FXStallion 07:50 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Ist 20 pip target on gbpusd hit...next target should be 1.9844..
Hi whakafourry, I noticed your calls are more of swing trading,like buying above the swing high of 1.9876 or selling below the low of 1.9728 for 50-70 pip target on the gbpusd and the rest. Do you use stop losses?as in, if price retraces down or up 30 to 50% after being triggered?

Syd 07:36 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Bank of Thailand to slash policy rate total of 125 bps this year to 2%, with 25bp cuts at each of the 5 Monetary Policy Committee meetings slated for April-October, says Standard Chartered economist Usara Wilaipich; expects U.S. Fed to cut Fed funds to 1.0% by end of 3Q, which would add to pressure for THB to strengthen if there were no corresponding rate cuts from BOT dj

ltn th 07:11 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
mad 06:52 GMT January 28
In the SG and Barclays incidents, at least, one cant help wondering if their superiors had not taken the opportunity to clean the stables and that many of the reported losses may not be strictly related to any offensive conduct?

mad 06:59 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Daily Pivot Points - Standard - Jan 28, 06:50 GMT -
EUR/USD
S3 S2 S1 P R1 R2 R3
1.4520 1.4591 1.4636 1.4707 1.4752 1.4823 1.4868

Lagos FXStallion 06:54 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
We should see gbpjpy going from 1.9770 to 1.9790

mad 06:52 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
IF YOU think you've had a stressful couple of weeks watching the market pitch up and down, spare a thought for the lonely, sweaty guy on a trading desk in a city somewhere. He's made a wrong bet on some obscure derivative, it's getting more wrong by the minute, and he's frantically trying to hide his covert losses. Click here!

mad 06:50 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
"If you take care of the losses the profits will look after themselves".

mad 06:44 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
and may the force be with you 8-)

mad 06:44 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
have a gr8 day

mad 06:44 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
* BoE MPC David Blanchflower, in Guardian interview, says UK economy risks following US into a slowdown unless interest rates are cut sharply in the next few months. BoE needs to stop worrying about inflation, cut interest rates to prevent slowdown.

* Sunday Times: a raft of up to 10 European hedge funds have been forced to introduce emergency measures to protect their businesses from collapsing in the wake of the turmoil in financial markets.

* Japan PM Yasuo Fukuda says global economy face growing downside risks and G7 will discuss credit turmoil.

* BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui says strong JPY is one reason why Japan stocks are falling more than other markets.

* Yomiuri Shimbun: BoJ Dep Gov Toshiro Muto is expected be appointed governor of the BoJ.

* Times on Sat: Japan is in advanced discussions to create its first sovereign wealth fund, some GBP25b.Fortis says its capital and solvency position is sound and is not considering new sure issues.

* ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet says European growth is solid, but warns of risks at international level.

* French Econ Min Christine Lagarde says ECB will be sensitive to calls throughout Europe to consider growth. High euro put competitiveness in Europe to test.

* Sunday Times: Brazil's Vale lines up $50b for Xstrata.

* Another nervous day of trading, as Asian stock markets reverse some of last week's gains under fresh waves of selling, and triggering fresh waves of USD/JPY, JPY carry trades sales.

* USD/JPY extend losses below 106.50, to lows of 106.06 as large US inv houses out of Tok, HK and US banks sold good amount, led by GBP/JPY sales, on back of weak stocks and BoE MPC Blanchflower calls for rate cuts.

GBP/JPY hit lows of 209.55, vs day highs of 212.10-20, GBP fell from 4-wk highs 1.9879, extending losses to 1.9729 on GBP/JPY sales, Blanchflower.

EUR dragged lower, but supported on EUR/GBP buying from 0.7391 to 0.7438, after dovish comments from BoE Blanchflower. EUR/USD bids comin gin at 1.4650-55 level.

EUR/JPY dipped from 157 to 155.70 on Cross/JPY sales, some focus on eurozone redemption, but good support at 155 handle again.

AUD steady with Australia away on holiday, though a touch weighed to 0.8773 on back of AUD/JPY, hitting day lows of 93.10-20, down from 94.10-20. AUD/USD bids at 0.8750 level. NZD/USD dipping lower on back of NZD/JPY sale.

Focus on GBP, on back of Scot+Newcastle, and Xstrata M+A talks.

Nikkei -3.97% -541.25pts at 13,087.91. JGBs firmer on weaker stocks, 10-yr yield -0.070% at 1.405%.

Crude oil remains below $90, at $89.90.

Gold prices remain firm $919.25/20.25, eye all time highs.

Syd 06:40 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Monoliners may make financial crisis a whole lot worse
Who said high finance was boring? Last week, as markets gyrated and the US central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates, the new obsession for the markets, the media and ordinary people alike was whether we are heading for recession. Well, are we or aren't we, and if so, what can be done about it?

Too much attention is paid to the R-word. In this country, by common agreement among economists (a rare thing) a recession means two consecutive quarters of falling output (i.e. negative economic growth). Quite why it is two quarters and not three, or indeed one, I am not sure. On this definition, the UK had a recession in 1990-92 and 1979-81. But since the war, in most developed countries, recessions have been rare.

LINK

mad 06:32 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Hello and gm FX Jedi

8-)

J'lem ML 06:09 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Good week.

GOLD to fall to below 900 this week on economic concerns.

SELL GOLD around 920

good luck

Amman wfakhoury 05:57 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 04:40 GMT January 28, 2008
This signal is for the coming week you just make buy and sell stop and tp for 50-75 pips only...and you will see the results.
===============

EUR/JPY
======
buy stop @ 158.50 sell stop 155.20 ....tp 50-75 pips

GBP/USD
=======
buy stop @19876 sell stop @19730 tp 50-75 pipss.

======
gbp.usd add buy stop 19780 sl 19730 due 19730 filled.



Syd 05:50 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY at risk of falling toward 105 if global stocks remain weak, says Tokyo trader. Says, USD should have some support as players unlikely to make any large one-sided bets amid uncertainties over the Fed's next rate decision, but "Asian stock markets overall fell much more than expected, so should such a downturn in global stocks accelerate, the dollar could once again fall toward 105" on risk aversion. he says. Tips initial support at 106 with next target then 105. DJ

Syd 05:21 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Nikkei down 3.5% at 13158.64, with all of Topix's 33 subsectors lower as selling accelerates in afternoon with investors growing concerned about whether Fed will cut rates at FOMC on Tuesday and Wednesday, market observers say. Amid speculation about whether Fed knew about massive trading losses at Societe Generale SA, Fed said it was unaware of the situation. Fed cut rates by 75 basis points after last Monday's heavy global stock losses, but "a growing number of investors are worried that the Fed may not cut rates by 50 basis points (which has been priced in the market) or may not even cut at all," if it knew about Societe General's losses before hand and "preempted a further financial crunch," says Japanese brokerage strategist.

Syd 05:04 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
N225 Nikkei 225 13,205.16 11:25PM ET 424.00 (3.11%) neg

Amman wfakhoury 04:42 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:11 GMT January 28, 2008
=====
intellegent traders must ask..why the hedge here..why not exit the buy and enter the sell without hedge.

Amman wfakhoury 04:40 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
This signal is for the coming week you just make buy and sell stop and tp for 50-75 pips only...and you will see the results.
===============

EUR/JPY
======
buy stop @ 158.50 sell stop 155.20 ....tp 50-75 pips

GBP/USD
=======
buy stop @19876 sell stop @19730 tp 50-75 pipss.



Wellington, N.Z. 04:22 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   


Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for MONDAY - JANUARY 28th:



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USA Zeus 04:21 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Ok set stops and off to bed. Let's see later. Me thinks the Pro's might finally get on the scoreboard.

tchau

USA Zeus 04:16 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Saw smth so had to add one last G/J 210.10. No more- period.
Model says lower so must go higher.

USA Zeus 04:11 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Looks like he pretty much hedged and boxed it all there so 99.9999% sure my scalps will work because if they don't then I'm 99.99999% sure a triple hedge will save it all.

Happy Day!

Amman wfakhoury 04:09 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 18:44 GMT January 25, 2008

=========
EUR/JPY
====
heading 159.40 now it is 158.90
===
99.90 % sure signal.BUY BUY another if decline
=====
reverse levels 158.38 and 158.08 sell level 157.89 ..act accordingly.

======
the lesson which should be taken from this signal.
is the sure degree in any stage of the trading.
first I start sure that the price will hit 159.40 buy it reverse
and hit the sell level. accordingly I used the second sure
that the price must reach 156.00..
i made double hedge according that sure..and if I wait till reach 156.00 my trade will make good profit.
==============
just I want to say that it reached 156.10 ...the second sure 99.90 % stage.

USA Zeus 04:08 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
And hit GBP/USD one last time 1.9747

USA Zeus 04:06 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Ok this Joe hit it one last time G/J 210.21

jkt-aye 04:02 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
magnetic level from 1H chart for gbpusd 1.9620 and gbpjpy 208.95. gtgl

Syd 04:01 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
WSJ(1/28) Heard On The Street: Countrywide Bonds Stir AngstCountrywide Financial Corp. bondholders saw Kenneth D. Lewis as a knight in shining armor when the Bank of America Corp. chairman and chief executive announced a takeover of the mortgage lender.

Now some are having doubts that he will ride to their rescue.

The reason: The largest U.S. bank in stock-market value has given few details about what will happen to about $25 billion in Countrywide bonds as part of the deal. As a result, some bondholders are worried that Bank of America will structure the agreement so that it doesn't fully back the mortgage lender's debt obligations. If that happens, Countrywide's debt may not rise in value to levels more in line with Bank of America bonds.

"For somebody who holds Countrywide debt, you would love to see Bank of America assume all of the obligations of Countrywide," said Sean Jones, managing director of Egan-Jones Ratings Co., an independent credit-rating firm. "But it's not clear that this is going to happen."

Syd 03:59 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
DJ FOCUS: Investors Take Defensive Positions On China
Skeptics see more of the sheen coming off China's stock markets this year, and investors are on the prowl for strategies that break away from last year's buy-anything philosophy.

Chinese markets have been a beacon in the region even as the subprime-debt mess and fears of a U.S. recession have put a dent in global markets. Still, they are down about 10% this year and likely to come under more pressure, those turning bearish on the market say.

As China implements tightening measures to correct imbalances in its trade surplus, fend off inflation and deal with declining exports to a slowing U.S. economy, its equities trading is apt to see more zigs and zags than in 2007.

The recent turmoil, which took a bite out of most Asian markets, hit China hard. In Tuesday's Asian rout, the benchmark Shanghai Composite index sank 7.2%, following a 5% drop the day before, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 8.7%. After a hefty U.S. interest-rate cut, markets rebounded. The Shanghai index climbed for three straight sessions, although it still ended with a weekly loss of 8.7%. By comparison, Hong Kong lost 0.3% over the week.

van Gecko 03:52 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Cable being "double crossed" on all fronts to start the week.. the move has the legs to visit the mid 1.96's when London & New York come onboard.. cheerios


USA Zeus 03:52 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Ok fine. Long G/J 210.33.

USA Zeus 03:51 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 03:48 GMT January 28, 2008

If it stops sliding here I think that is at the far end of the reach but a real possibility in teh very ST. Intra/iter-day shows 207.30ish as the dynamic critical downside support.

Let's see if we can get one for the Joes'!

GLGT

Malaysia puteraku73 03:48 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus

Do you think gbp/jpy will reach 213.00??

USA Zeus 03:45 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Ok fine. Hit GBP/USD long @ 1.9755

USA Zeus 03:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
G/J 210.50 is interesting for a long scalp.

Syd 03:36 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
LONDON (AFP)--The leaders of the U.K., France, Germany and Italy plus the European Commission meet in London Tuesday to discuss how to respond to recent turmoil on global financial markets.

Syd 03:13 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Bond Insurers: The Next Nightmare?

There's nothing like global financial chaos for enriching the vocabulary. Few realized what sub-prime really meant until a U.S. mortgage market went pop last year. These days it's a byword for bad news everywhere. And who knew those collateralized debt obligations could be such a smack in the chops? But it's time for a new word. One that's no less mean or mysterious. Try the new bad term on the street: monolines.
http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1706887,00.html

USA Zeus 02:52 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Long scalp signal GBP/USD 1.9765

Malaysia puteraku73 02:41 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
GBP/JPY....

I could expect GJ to head down a little today, as it will consolidate around area of 210-209.05. I will make entry at 211.40 TP 209.10 SL 211.90.

R2 212.48
R1 212.28
Pivot 211.93
S1 211.73
S2 211.38
S3 211.18

Weekly Pivot 210.25

Syd 02:39 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
The European Union Commission is expected to revise down its estimate for Spain's 2008 gross domestic product growth to 2.6%, mainly due to the U.S. economic crisis, reports El Mundo in its Monday Internet edition
http://www.elmundo.es

dc CB 02:33 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
"It sounds complicated, but it's really fairly simple. Banks lent hundreds of billions of dollars to homebuyers who can't pay them back. Wall Street took the risky debt, dressed it up as fancy securities, and sold it around the world as safe investments. It sounds like a shell game or Ponzi scheme; in some ways, it was a house of cards rife with corruption, greed, and negligence."

From tonight's 60 Minutes broadcast.
House Of Cards: The Mortgage Mess

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/25/60minutes/main3752515.shtml

Syd 02:29 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
INTERVIEW:Ex-MOF Sakakibara Sees '08 Japan Growth 1% Or Less
Despite Japan's grim outlook, the dollar could fall sharply versus the yen because U.S. economic prospects are even gloomier, Sakakibara said.

"The U.S. economy is no doubt decelerating," he said. "If the degree of the slowdown is serious, the dollar will decline against the yen."

Japan's Ministry of Finance, meanwhile, is unlikely to try to break the greenback's fall, Sakakibara said.

"I don't think (the ministry) will be able to conduct intervention," said Sakakibara, whose ability to influence the dollar-yen rate during his Finance Ministry career earned him the nickname "Mr. Yen." That's because the U.S. government, from which Tokyo must get permission before nudging the dollar higher or lower, seems loath to see Japan intervening, Sakakibara said.

"At a time when the U.S. (and other advanced economies) are pressing China to revalue the yuan by a big margin, it would look awkward if Japan intervenes," he said. "Telling China to revalue is like telling it to abandon intervention. Against that background, I don't think Japan can intervene."

Not Interested In BOJ Governor's Post

Commenting on the political debate over who should replace BOJ Gov. Fukui when he steps down in March, Sakakibara said he, at least, isn't interested in the job.

"What would I be able to do as BOJ governor?" said Sakakibara, currently a professor at Waseda University in Tokyo. "That would be just to raise or lower interest rates. I don't find such a job attractive. There are many other things I want to do."

Syd 02:24 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD now off lows, but may remain weak on growing concerns over euro-zone economy, financial system, says trader at Tokyo securities company dj

Syd 02:21 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
dj
Suzuki Motor Co. (7269.TO) said Monday it boosted domestic production in December 6.1% on year to 107,947 vehicles, posting the fifth straight month of rise.


isr jweb 02:21 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
thnks

Hong Hong Qindex 02:20 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 01:23 GMT - GBP/USD : I would assume a range market. Keep an eye on GBP/JPY.

isr jweb 01:23 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
thanks dr q. whats your view on gbp-usd? the same?

Hong Hong Qindex 00:59 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY : My bias is on the downside when it is below 106.99 and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 106.35.

US SW 00:40 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
DJIA PM FUTURES -38.00 12198.00 1/27 7:24pm

US SW 00:27 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
will stopout 10680 thee end

Syd 00:22 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
The British economy risks following the US into a slowdown unless interest rates are cut sharply in the next few months, a monetary policy committee member of the Bank of England has warned, according to the Guardian.
Professor David Blanchflower said the bank needed to learn from the US Federal Reserve and take preemptive action to prevent growth from stalling, the newspaper said on its Web site Monday. Blanchflower, who was the sole dissenter calling for another interest rate cut this month while his colleagues voted to leave rates steady at 5.5%, said: "Worrying about inflation at this time seems like fiddling while Rome burns."
www.guardian.co.uk

US SW 00:21 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
went long usdjpy for 20 pips limit 10710

Syd 00:19 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
24% of Brits who hope to retire by 62 have no pension provision
Research from Baring Asset Management (Barings) reveals that on average, Brits expect to be retired by the time they are 62. However, the research found that of those adults yet to retire 24% (9.03 million adults) have made no pension provision at all. The findings highlight the fact that millions of Brits are failing to seriously plan for their retirement... http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid=NEWS&articlekey=8874&cat=44-0-0

philadelphia caba 00:16 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Headlines over Reuters BOE"s BLANCHFLOWER SAYS
*DOWNSIDE RISKS TO GROWTH OUTWEIGH UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION
*EVIDENCE FROM HOUSING AND COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKETS IS "WORRYING"
*CURRENT UK INTEREST RATES RESTRICTIVE, MPC SHOULD GET AHEAD OF CURVE
*WORRYING ABOUT INFLATION NOW SEEMS LIKE "FIDDLING WHEN ROME BURNS"

sorry about caps..
eur/gbp heading back above 7450?

US SW 00:14 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
eurjpy technical resistance before the pres speach 15724 on the FIB...breaks...see 15760

US SW 00:12 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
usdjpy starting to sqeeze weak stops

Syd 00:09 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
UK House Prices Fell For Fourth Month In January U.K. house prices fell for the fourth straight month in January as buyers delay making purchases until the outlook for the economy and interest rates become more clear, a survey by Hometrack

"Weak confidence among would-be purchasers continues to put downward pressure on house prices although the scale of the recent falls is relatively small when put in the context of gains over the last few years," said Richard Donnell, Hometrack's director of research.

Some economists believe that with easy credit no longer freely available, house prices are set for a sharp fall. In its quarterly report on the U.K. economy, business services firm Deloitte said it expects prices to fall by 5.0% this year, and by 8% in 2009.

And with the housing market weakening, Deloitte said the U.K. economy faces its weakest period of growth since 1992.

"There is a risk that the economy will slip into a full-blown recession," said Roger Bootle, Deloitte's economic adviser. "The increasing vulnerability of the housing market is at the heart of the downturn."
dj


Syd 00:03 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
Financial News: Banks Have Billions In Exposure To Monolines

The top five U.S. broker-dealer banks have a combined $23 billion (EUR15.7 billion) in uncollateralised exposures to AAA counterparties, part of which is with monoline bond insurers that have been weakened by the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

Monolines insure $2.3 trillion of debt, including structured credit and municipal bonds, according to research by Swiss bank UBS. Analysts at Bernstein Research have questioned the strength of Wall Street's sub-prime hedges, which are now under pressure and may need to be replaced, raising the risk of more writedowns.

Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (MER) is the only bank to have reported losses in relation to its exposures to monolines, and Bernstein expects more if the outlook for monolines deteriorates further.

The U.S. bank wrote down $3.1 billion of the assets in the fourth quarter last year after monoline ACA, to which it had an exposure, had its credit rating downgraded to junk status.

The value of hedges held by banks with monolines has risen sharply and in line with the fall in value of the underlying CDOs that the monolines had insured.

Brad Hintz, senior analyst at Bernstein Research in New York, said in research last week: "The banks have therefore built large receivable positions from the monolines and effectively have large chunks of assets on their balance sheets, which are unsecured loans from this vulnerable set of companies."

Credit default swap spreads on the two largest monolines, Ambac and MBIA have widened to over 1,500 basis points.

Merrill Lynch had an estimated $7.1 billion uncollateralised exposure to AAA counterparties, Morgan Stanley (MS) had almost $7 billion, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) $4.7 billion, Lehman Brothers $4 billion and Bear Stearns Co. (BSC) had $330 million at the end of last August, according to Bernstein Research data based on company disclosures.

Merrill Lynch disclosed that about 50% of its hedges were written by monolines.
http://www.efinancialnews.com


US SW 00:01 GMT January 28, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 20:24 GMT January 27, 2008


I think your on to something here....not unusual for You!

 




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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

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