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Forex Forum Archive for 01/30/2008

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Syd 23:57 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 23:55 thks

quito_ecuador_valdez 23:55 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Hi Syd, tks for posting the article below. I firmly disagree with the writer of it in that the writer doesn't mention the layers of collateral paper involved in the finance biz in USA and promotes the idea that things aren't all that bad at all. Fed cuts won't cure core problems that have death rattles.

The following is pure intuition and based on no facts. I think USD/CHF is extremely heavy (punctured low and touched 1.0812. almost the psyco barrier of 1.0800. I see the pair as heavy based on past experience with charts & what I think big money thinks about USD, US trade deficit & the cavity created by baseless paper collateral in the finance sector posing to me huge risk to finance sector. I piked short USD/CHF because CHF has also gained overall 12 months in daily charts vs majors & even today vs EUR, the low @ Jan 22. So my fav pair at this point is swissy for those reasons..tanking USD & overall strength of CHF...offering the constrast I like for trading. EUR/USD has strangely range traded to me at least in a 'strange' way and is exploring resistance again. It seems like the pair is being controlled by impossible resistance. Not surprising tho.

Another factor Sydney brought out last night is that USD has to go cheap to allow US to get on it's feet & export. Cheap bucks helps Panama, Ecuador exports also as those 2 use USDs exclusively. Even if USD/CHF goes to say 1.500 & EUR/USD to 2.00 I don't see anything wrong with it or endangering the currency as a whole. The world is going to have to buy US exports or USA won't recover & whatever it takes that's fine. China wants to put a check growth so a cheap buck would help do that also. I realize USA is self sufficient so to speak but exports are always mandatory.

Syd 23:46 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
*DJ Moody's Withdraws Prime-1 Rtg Of Ivory Funding Co

Syd 23:45 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DJ AUD Paring Gains On Risk Aversion - TraderFresh wave of risk aversion sending AUD lower, likely to weigh further as concerns mount over full extent of subprime fall-out, trader says. Notes Australian equities sharply lower as reports monoline insurers set to be downgraded spook investors. Says S&P report cautioning worst yet to come for European banks adding to woes, investors dumping riskier assets for safe-haven JPY.

Syd 23:31 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DJ :Some Worry Mkts Have To Much Sway Over Rate PolicyWhile many applaud Fed's rate cuts to save economy, some detractors say economic outlook not as bad as some of pessimists believe and precipitous drop in interest rates increasing inflation risks, raising real questions as to how central bankers will conduct policy over year. "The Fed has totally lost control of policy and they are entirely hostage to market expectations," says Stephen Stanley, chief economist with RBS Greenwich; what happens next with rates is "strictly a function of what the markets want", not what policy makers believe economic circumstances objectively require, he says. Says data not dire enough to support cuts so far; believes the Fed will have very hard time fighting off demands for more cuts from markets amid economic stresses, even if it thinks it's done enough, given precedent it appears to be setting.

Syd 23:28 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY likely to fall below 106, if Asian stocks follow U.S. stocks decline overnight, says trader at Japanese trust bank. Says DJ

dc CB 23:22 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Globex reopens
AD down 100pts
CD down 80pts
ESH (mini sp) down 15
Dow mini down 100

Mtl JP 23:08 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
according to Cramer, Cramer and Ben are on the same page. Cramer now wants to buy.... a house. according to Cramer FED has a mandate to avert financial armaggedon.

Syd 23:06 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD too close to "overbought" level in current ranges and too far away from 0.8500 "fair value" level to be worth buying, says Suncorp treasury analyst Peter Pontikis. Notes AUD/USD "officially overbought" above 0.90 level. Weakness in USD/JPY is bellwether for strong retreat back to safehaven currencies following equities weakness. Expect pair to drift back throughout day DJ

jkt-aye 23:05 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
long usdchf 1.0825 for 1.0885 sl 1.0785

Syd 22:58 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
S&P mulls $500B in mortgage downgrade
NEW YORK -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services is considering slashing its rating on more than $500 billion of investments tied to bad mortgage loans, the ratings agency said Wednesday.

The massive downgrade would threaten a broad swath of the world's finance industry, S&P said, ranging from Wall Street's trading desks to regional banks to local credit unions.
&P acknowledged the potential for these downgrades to ripple throughout the world of banking and finance. Banks have already posted $90 billion in losses on these types of mortgage investments, and S&P expects losses to reach $265 billion.


Gen dk 22:53 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 22:46 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:44 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:41 GMT yes saw that , exactly what I was saying two tier economly Australia lag UK and USA by about six months, only hope we arent in the same boat later in the year

USA BAY 22:44 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
eur/usd may test 1.45xx before going to 1.50.

Sydney ACC 22:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Syd 22:23 GMT January 30, 2008
Yesterday's results and comments from Woolies may give the RBA board some food for thought.
Sales were lower than analysts predictions at stores open for a year 6% up versus an expected 7.7%.
Chief executive Michael Luscombe said conditions were becoming tougher for his customers, with inflation and interest rates and petrol prices all on the rise.
"There is no doubt that things have changed a little bit in the Australian community, particularly in that last little quarter,'' Mr Luscombe said.

Stockholm za 22:38 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   

1m 25 delta RR on the F…
EUR/USD - is 0.22 EUR put. Vs last week 0.42
GBP/USD - is 0.45 GBP put. Vs last week 0.75
USD/JPY - is 2.90 USD put. Vs last week 3.60
USD/CHF - is 0.70 USD put. Vs last week 0.55
USD/CAD - is 0.05 USD call. Vs last week 0.30
GVI/GVFF - is 3.15 GVI call. Vs last week 2.33

The GVI/GVFF Index at 83.01
Happy trading…..

USA Zeus 22:33 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 22:17 GMT January 30, 2008

Thx BAY. Well we never know for sure but this pattern seems to repeat so let's see...

GLGT! :-)

Syd 22:25 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 30, 2008--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services placed its 'AA' standard long-term rating on 21 Societe Generale LOC-backed issues listed below on CreditWatch with negative implications.

This action follows Standard & Poor's Jan. 24, 2008, placement of Societe Generale on CreditWatch with negative implications. The long-term components of the ratings are based on Societe Generale

Syd 22:23 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Saying on CNBC asia TV this rate Fed cut could give RBA some breathing space

Syd 22:21 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:19 cheers, not over yet though dont think may be try again for another shot up there , just have to see how Asia react but agree with your views on this only a matter of time but not sure how much :-))))

Sydney ACC 22:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Syd 22:17 GMT January 30, 2008
Great call from yesterday on a sell-off of the AUD.
Wild morning over 200 pips range so far.

warsaw TOMi 22:18 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
that's a good one tp for swissie = parity.. wow, like usdcad.

USA BAY 22:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

YES USD/CHF long may work as a short term top for eur/usd is in place I think.

Syd 22:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Dow Jones Small-capitalization stocks finished lower Wednesday, as a late afternoon rally spurred by the Federal Reserve's latest interest-rate cut couldn't keep stocks out of the red. Bond insurers led much of the late afternoon declines after a report from Oppenheimer warned that problems for the troubled companies could filter even more into larger financials, and Fitch cut its rating on Financial Guaranty Insurance Corp., or FGIC, to double-A.
"Do we know if things have changed for the longer term? Not really," said Bill Groeneveld, head trader at vFinance. "We still have questions about the second and third quarter and it's half and half in terms of sentiment about whether or not we'll go into a recession."
In addition, Fitch cut FGIC's rating to double-A, and kept its rating of the insurer of about a third of municipal bond issues on negative watch, meaning the rating could be cut further. FGIC is part-owned by private equity giant Blackstone Group.



USA Zeus 22:15 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Ahh yes well time to build a possie here.
Long USD/CHF 1.0818

Syd 22:09 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
WSJ UPDATE: S&P Takes Rating Action On Subprime Securities
In all, S&P's actions affected 47% of the U.S. subprime mortgage bonds rated in 2006 and the first half of 2007. It hit 35% of the CDO issuance worldwide, or $264 billion. In mortgages, S&P lowered its rating on 2,607 classes of 2006 subprime mortgage bonds and placed the ratings of 2,035 more on "credit watch negative," which means a downgrade in future weeks is a distinct possibility.

S&P said that the downgrades will expand the number of banks affected by the credit crunch, including regional banks, credit unions and Federal Home Loan Banks and some Asian banks.

warsaw TOMi 22:08 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
GS has 10% stake in CMCmarkets..

Tallinn viies 22:04 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
heard that Goldman was suggesting today to start build up short euro position aginst usd during this upmove
fwiw

Tallinn viies 22:04 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
heard that Goldman was suggesting today to start build up short euro position aginst usd during this upmove
fwiw

Gen dk 22:00 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 21:57 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
It happens here every time they get a small false sense of confidence...one by one they line up and quip about their bigger sibling as they walk the plank while blindfolded. Then, suddenly, they do a barrel roll off the edge like a depth charge...poof! They are wiped out again. LOL

rag bar 21:55 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
rad bar 20:41 GMT January 30, 2008
rag bar 19:49 GMT January 30, 2008
rag bar 19:32 GMT January 30, 2008
sold G/J 213.55 stop 213.75 target open

covered half at 212.86


covered 1/4 here at 212.55 rest stop at 213.02

covered rest here at 211.23 : total +117 pips

Syd 21:54 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Another bond insurer lost its key AAA rating Wednesday.

Fitch cut its ratings on the bond-insurance units of FGIC Corp. to AA, saying FGIC has thus far failed to plug a $1.3 billion capital shortfall resulting from the rapid deterioration of complicated securities it has guaranteed.

FGIC is the fourth-largest bond insurer, with guarantees on $314.8 billion in mostly municipal debt. It joins No. 2 Ambac Financial Group Inc. (ABK) and No. 5 Security Capital Assurance Ltd. (SCA) among the companies whose insurance ratings have been downgraded from AAA by Fitch

warsaw TOMi 21:51 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
maybe its time next to cut euro and gbp % rates, carry well established on long pln where % will get even higher then todays 0.25.. lol

philadelphia caba 21:47 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Geneva 21:45 GMT
agree...a big fall !

Geneva 21:45 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
the euro/swiss just started the move it will take months but it will go down to 1.50 and later on even lower, Euro is the next ccys to fall big time.

warsaw TOMi 21:43 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
selling gbpchf may work better then eurchf..
gj already ticking nicely downside

Syd 21:42 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
New government the fight with the Unions begin !!

Unions tool up for workplace battles
UNIONS are bracing for a long fight with the Rudd Government over new rules for the independent industrial umpire, wage bargaining across industries and unions' right of entry to workplaces.The ACTU is also vowing to pursue companies that continue to offer the Howard government's Australian Workplace Agreements until they are abolished by parliament.

philadelphia caba 21:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Geneva 21:37 GMT
maybe..byt it's still a carry .. so sell with stop..

Geneva 21:37 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
i THINK IT IS NOT TOO LATE TO SELL EURO AND BUY SWISS FRANCS., MUCH DOWN SIDE LONG TERM MIN. 1.50.

Syd 21:35 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USD/JPY set for soft session as Asian equities likely to open weaker, following negative end on Wall St and after Fitch downgrades monoline insurer FGIC, says Bank of New Zealand strategist Danica Hampton. Risk aversion very much in focus. Fed's 50 bps rate cut to 3.00% hid a raft of bad news overnight, with European banks taking major subprime writedowns, U.S. 4Q GDP growth at 0.6% annualized. Says pressure on USD/JPY will remain on "downside", with support at 106.30 dj

Geneva 21:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
WE DON'T NEED CENTRAL BANKS! ONLY FREE MARKET

Helsinki iw 21:32 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Well that cut worked about as well as pixxing in your pants on a freezing cold winters day.

Zuess, when will this raging bull market in US assets start? This looks really serious, and the CBs are not in control.

Syd 21:30 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
PRESS RELEASE:S&P Acts On 6,389 US Subprime RMBS, 1,953 CDO Rtgs

Geneva 21:08 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Now the fed will cut again, market negative, America became a real joke!

Syd 21:06 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Meredith Whitney fears $70bn carnage on monolinersThe high-profile banking analyst who triggered the resignation of Citigroup chairman Charles "Chuck" Prince is predicting investment banks will need to take further write-downs of $40bn (£20bn) to $70bn as a result of the current crisis in the bond insurance market.Major monolines - such as MBIA and Ambac - risk losing their triple-A credit ratings as a result of having to pay out on guarantees connected to bonds that contain defaulting sub-prime mortgages.



USA Zeus 21:04 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
saopaulo cg 21:02 GMT January 30, 2008

Puxe vida pa'! Seria que lindo!! LOL

saopaulo cg 21:02 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
dont worry, i f Dow falls 3% tomorrow, the Fed will cut rates by 0.75 bps friday morning !!!! poor BEN, he is taking from his own medicine......

dc CB 21:00 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Fed takes another shot from it's single shot elephant gun.....the bear fakes a retreat, then charges.

Syd 20:57 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ.AU) has given private stockbroker Tricom only days to reduce its margin loan book by hundreds of millions of Australian dollars to satisfy loan covenants, the Australian newspaper reported Thursday.

Without citing sources, the newspaper said that the group has been ordered to reduce its loan book to A$1 billion by Friday. The report said Tricom's margin loan book was around A$2.5 billion in September, but had shrunk to A$1.5 billion by last week.
The report also said some Babcock & Brown Ltd. (BNB.AUU) executives have margin loans with Tricom, which is Babcock & Brown's house broker.

Wellington, N.Z. 20:57 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   


Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for THURSDAY - JANUARY 31st:



To Request a Trial of Max’s FX Service:

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mad 20:51 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
good night people

PAR 20:43 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
http://online.wsj.com/mdcapp/public/page/2_3024-info_fedparse_shell.html

PAR 20:43 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
http://online.wsj.com/mdcapp/public/page/2_3024-info_fedparse_shell.html

Malaysia puteraku73 20:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Geneva 20:34 GMT January 30, 2008

Thats why im looking for eur/usd go down to 1.4700 or lower. As long as eur/usd below 4910 previous high and below the 4930 on a close..

rad bar 20:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
rag bar 19:49 GMT January 30, 2008
rag bar 19:32 GMT January 30, 2008
sold G/J 213.55 stop 213.75 target open

covered half at 212.86


covered 1/4 here at 212.55 rest stop at 213.02

Geneva 20:38 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Jay, I sent you an e-mail.

PAR 20:35 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
What if SocGen actually did not liquidate the position but just replaced it with options and reports a mega profit next week ?

mad 20:35 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
PAR 20:31 GMT January 30, 2008
Rumors of emergency meeting from BOJ ?

Yes, Japanese housewives are upset that the difference between us and yen interest rates are getting smaller and smaller and that there is not enough Kiwi and Aussie $ in the world for their carry trade ... 8-)

Geneva 20:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Malaysia puteraku73 20:32 GMT January 30, 2008

With Inflation at 4%, it is not so easy.....I think from tomorow the market will start focus else where and thids will be dollar positive

Malaysia puteraku73 20:32 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Geneva 20:30 GMT January 30, 2008
We are at the first month of the year and Ben cut already 1.25%, what he will do if the nmarket keep going down???

==================

He will cut till the last number... :))

seattle AW 20:31 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Neuters
SALMON ARM BUREAU

4:30 EST Northern Loons victorious in vicious aerial dogfight with Bald Eagles

PAR 20:31 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Rumors of emergency meeting from BOJ ?

Geneva 20:30 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
We are at the first month of the year and Ben cut already 1.25%, what he will do if the nmarket keep going down???

mad 20:29 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
PAR 20:28 GMT January 30, 2008

he is not the only one !
8-)

mad 20:29 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
PAR 20:15 GMT January 30, 2008
...and french chateau in the Bordeaux region

PAR 20:28 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Bernanke is just a financial sorcerers apprentice and has not a single idea what the long term consequences of his political inspired actions will be . A kind of financial Harry Potter . Lol.

mad 20:27 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Jerome must be bittinh his nail, he could be even by now
8-)

Syd 20:26 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Australian-listed MFS has supplied more information to the market. MFS will sell assets to meet the growing demand from investors who want their cash back. Some investors in the MFS Premium Income Fund are seeking to withdraw their money. MFS has delayed payment of the money for up to 180 days while the cash held in the fund is increased. At the end of December 2007, only 4.2% of the fund was in cash. One real estate developer has alleged that MFS is facing a liquidity crisis
The Australian Financial Review

US SW 20:25 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Gold soars to new record high after Fed cuts rates

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gold-futures-drop-ahead-fed/story.aspx?guid=%7BEFDDC763%2D99E0%2D4FFC%2DB988%2D49C144FD24B5%7D&siteid=yhoof

mad 20:24 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Samurai Fukui and co. must be watching closely the FX market

I wonder if we will have to wait the next FED meeting for a cut ?

Where the heck is Yves Mersch when we need him.

And by the way, always listen to a top model... Their look isn t everything you know.
8-)

saopaulo cg 20:23 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
finally, we now have a new funding currency for carry trades, the US DOLLAR !!!!!!!!

PAR 20:23 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus . Congratulations for buying at the bottom , but look at what happened to Japanese Nikkei when interest rates went to ZERO . From 40.000 to 7.000 .

mad 20:21 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
PAR 20:15 GMT January 30, 2008

...and gold 8-)

philadelphia caba 20:21 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
sold eur/gbp at 7465, sar above 7500

London Big Blind 20:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
The move is not finished : eur/usd targets 1.4925 while above 1.4890
gbp/usd 1.9985 while above 19935

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:18 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Syd 20:14, It's a house o' cards. Collateralized air.

USA Zeus 20:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
PAR 20:15 GMT January 30, 2008

And the rest of us were stuck buying common shares at the bottom. LOL

PAR 20:15 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Smartest investors are the sovereign wealth funds buying preferred shares in Mer, C , Ubs etc yielding between 9 and 12 % . I am so jealous .

Syd 20:14 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DJ EXTRA CREDIT: Fed Rate Cuts No Quick Fix For Credit Markets
The more than $100 billion of write-downs at big banks as a result of the subprime mortgage mess has caused some of the largest financial institutions to tighten up their lending, even with each other. Lower rates aren't expected to change this dynamic, however, as many fear there are more losses yet to come as troubles at bond insurers threaten to spill more red ink.

These bond insurers play a key role in the financial system, guaranteeing some $2.4 trillion in debt, the bulk of it issued by municipalities that would otherwise have to pay higher rates.

The insurers, however, strayed from that core business into writing protection on collateralized debt obligations and other risky securities that have since plunged in value. Now their stellar triple-A ratings are under pressure, which in turn means the ratings of the debt they insure are in danger.

"Theoretically, the rate cuts should have a positive impact," said Scott MacDonald, director of research at Stamford, Conn.-based Aladdin Capital Holdings. He cautioned though that unless the problems with these insurers are resolved, credit markets will remain volatile.
Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney estimates credit-rating downgrades at major bond insurers could cause banks to take another $40 billion in write-downs in 2008.

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:13 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
+53 pips swissy so far is OK, the fortunes of Casino FX. None of today is important in itself, it is what mega money will do in the next 60 days that's important, & how they view core probs in US financial machinery & econ, viewing what Fed will end up with..EZ, all of that. We can jaw & speculate but have no clue re: control tower's intentions, interpretations or how their plan works into the fibers of world econ but it's fun to speculate just for kicks. As Perrie Como inferred earlier, when the world is at war or almost, there's no tellin'.

Sorry GV I/we got chatty...waiting out doldrums for FOMC etc. /^>

Amman wfakhoury 20:13 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
gbp.usd is heading twd 19990

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 20:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Sold another EUR/USD as well as EUR/SEK 9.4308, thinking about shorting the EUR/GBP will post if I do....Happy day

USA Zeus 20:10 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 20:04 GMT January 30, 2008

Sir, you may cut your losses at your leisure. Doing so at any point will not "make" me happy. I AM ALWAYS happy.

Happy Trades!

Geneva 20:08 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Selling euro again

US SW 20:07 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 19:40 GMT January 30, 2008


Sorry, didn't know I wasn't welcome here....Cherrois

Amman wfakhoury 20:04 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:59 GMT January 30, 2008
=====
such signal kept till now with big loss..to please you...and make you happy.

Syd 20:04 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: NZD, AUD Will Need More Than Fed To Hold Up - BNZ
2001 GMT [Dow Jones] While reaction of global markets to Fed's 50 bps cut positive, most of the action is a "knee-jerk" reaction, says Bank of New Zealand FX strategist Danica Hampton. Warns there is "no quick fix," underlying problems in U.S. remain along with risks to global economy. Says currencies taking their cues from stock market, if equities retrace gains then Kiwi, Aussie dollar will come under selling pressure

Gen dk 20:02 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 19:59 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:21 GMT January 22, 2008
Subject:
Amman wfakhoury 08:13 GMT January 22, 2008
20 spicy pips if we short gbp.usd @19368 now
=====
sell another twice at 19415


..................................................................................
Still valid or quad octo hedged?

PAR 19:58 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Euro gaining sharply against yen , yuan and other dollar pegged currencies ..

Amman wfakhoury 19:50 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 15:40 GMT January 30, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 14:25 GMT January 30, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 11:16 GMT January 30, 2008
Dont worry about me Bob , it is sure trade till 158.60
dont miss it.
=====
eur.jpy next tp 158.85

==============
15885 filled next tp3 159.40

rag bar 19:49 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
rag bar 19:32 GMT January 30, 2008
sold G/J 213.55 stop 213.75 target open

covered half at 212.86

Syd 19:48 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DJ MUNI WATCH: Market Approaches Lockdown Over Insurer WoesThe $2.6 trillion market for state and local government bonds, where about 50% of new issuance has been insured against default in recent years, is nearing a lockdown situation as uncertainty continues over the fate of bond insurers.

mad 19:45 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
second wave might be coming in....

As of today -
Central Banks Interest Rates
USD 3.00% EUR4.00% JPY0.50% GBP5.50%
CHF 2.75% CAD 4.00% AUD6.75% NZD8.25%

mad 19:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
don t worry, be happy !!

Nothing appears, nothing disappears, everything transforms itself.

8-)

Bon Air VA Dennis 19:40 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
US SW 19:39 GMT

knock of the shouting! kill the caps locl!

Syd 19:39 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Tricom crisis hits shares
January 31, 2008 AN unprecedented crackdown on stockbroker Tricom has stripped investor confidence in the share market and sent stocks into descent.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23135767-601,00.html

US SW 19:39 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
LOL...SEEN THIS A HUNDRED TIME>>>SHORT WILL NOW GET BURNED ...LONG EUROYEN 20 PIPS....158.85>

USA Zeus 19:38 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Mortgage refi boom all set to commence now.


Happy Day!

mad 19:37 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
It is funny (?!?!?!?) but...

i could argue that Yves Mersch in his tiny Luxembourg office has a bigger impact on the fx market than the big FED.

Yves Mersch for PREZ of the FED
8-)

USA Zeus 19:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Sorry last comment intended for futures forum

USA Zeus 19:33 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Wal-Mart does its part and cuts prices to keep the greatest economic machine pumping.

God bless America!

US SW 19:33 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
BUYING NOT OVER! we still have some spill to clean upp!

rag bar 19:32 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
sold G/J 213.55 stop 213.75 target open

PAR 19:30 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Helicopter Ben brings real Us interest rates in negative territory . Next step introduce new dollar bills. One new dollar equals 100 old dollars.

US SW 19:21 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
US SW 17:56 GMT January 30, 2008


Now I can breath with some coin in my hands...Good night folks!

seattle AW 19:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
hahahahahaha the news can't be good!

new albany mb 19:18 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
fed cuts by 1/2 point

Rye, NY et 19:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Release Date: January 30, 2008
For immediate release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3 percent.

Financial markets remain under considerable stress, and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, recent information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate in coming quarters, but it will be necessary to continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.

Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity. However, downside risks to growth remain. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act in a timely manner as needed to address those risks.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; Sandra Pianalto; Charles I. Plosser; Gary H. Stern; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Richard W. Fisher, who preferred no change in the target for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 50-basis-point decrease in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.
2008 Monetary Policy Releases

USA Zeus 19:14 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
May the truth set you free....

London NYAM 19:14 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mm//buddy i've got a couple of boards placed in different locations in case a tsunami hits. Let the waves come where they may...;)

mad 19:13 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
...and don't be confused like me 8-)

mad 19:11 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Keep hedging Jedi....

We might have an "Yves Mersch" scenario

Whatever happens, remember, keep breathing !

8-)

May the force be with you all

Pleasure PAR.

Waveman, do you have your speedo on and is your board ready to surf the waves ?

8-)

US SW 19:05 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
whatiever it is...look for 1.5-2.0 on the EUROUSD before Scalping or opening any new Postions...that's the best I can do on such SHORT*** notice...(SQUARE UPP ALL YOUR POSTION NOW!!!)GL SW

London Neil 19:03 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Consensus is for a 50bp cut.

Manchester SA 19:01 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Does anyone have a view on the Fed's announcement in 15minutes?

Is the Fed going to keep rates as is, or is there going to be a
cut?

Any views would be of great interest.

SA

Gen dk 18:44 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 18:32 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
KL 17:58 GMT//You can ask Jay for my address if you like.

Gen dk 18:09 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 18:06 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22626090.htm

KL 17:58 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
NYAM// u still there?maybe theres is a way i can contact u..my post will be flood in here. :p

US SW 17:56 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA SW 17:19 GMT January 30, 2008


LONG T/15944 STOP 157.26 SELL 16180 T/155

PAR 17:51 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Trichets second round effect .

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilities
News/idUSL3083157020080130

US SW 17:51 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USDCAD GETING DRILLED INTRA

PAR 17:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Mad / Nice videoclip of samourai Fukui. Lol.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA SW 17:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
GPDAUD looking for 195.00 in the next couple weeks...,Well at least my friends are.

Nairobi SK 17:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA SW 17:19 GMT January 30, 2008
LONG EUROYEN AGAIN 157.55 :)

Could be kind to share your opinion on a reasonable target for today on e/y

US SW 17:26 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
157.55 Just here for the trade...leaving SHORTLY!



157.55

London NYAM 17:25 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Mumbai NS 17:17//Hi I think its going to get sold off down to 208 area quite quickly if it cant breach 214.60 after the news. Similar to equities it looks like its hanging on the edge. But im not entering just yet as the news might give a better level.

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 17:23 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA SW 17:19 GMT January 30, 2008
I wouldnt be shouting that too much these days, but at least we all know where the heck you are SW!!

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA SW 17:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
LONG EUROYEN AGAIN 157.55 :)

Mumbai NS 17:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
NYAM//Gud day mate ur thots on g/j ty in advance glgt

SW 17:16 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Global-View 17:12 GMT January 30, 2008


sorry...wil not do that again!

SW 17:15 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
OH yes...With all due repect...That was silly coment...

Amman wfakhoury 17:13 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
market will not react with the fed decision...you may surprise

Global-View 17:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
SW 16:57 GMT January 30, 2008 - (and others) - please use a recognizable location when posting. You only have to do it once and save it so please taqke the time to do so. TIA

SW 17:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Listen to Art ....we test old Lows...simple as that..if fact we need to to go higher!...if im wrong I will eat Crow

SW 17:11 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
RICK IS WRONG>>>WE GET 50...the Fed does not want to us to panic....the JOB #'s were wrong Guys!

SW 16:57 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
RICK say 25 so the euroyen falls...what a joke

mad 16:42 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
I think BoJ , MoF etc . have taken a Sake break for the last hour or so
8-)

Extremely Funny Forex Currency Commercials

Click here!

London NYAM 16:38 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
KL//Great! Try checking help forum and look up old posts from those posters with real experience. I think pretty much everyone respects Shanghai BC and FM (there are lots here though). GL>

KL 16:33 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
NYAM// already taken 10pips just now...ill stick to my trading way..but maybe can learn something important here...:)

Van jv 16:32 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
".....Tactical Errors' /from Bloomberg/

``They've created a sense that the Fed doesn't really know where it's going or isn't in control,'' said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. Harris, a former head of domestic research at the New York Fed, said officials have committed ``tactical errors,'' where ``they seem to suddenly switch direction in unpredictable ways.''
.............

``That's the kind of clear message that the Fed should have been sending from the very beginning,'' said former Fed Governor Lyle Gramley, now a senior adviser at the Stanford Group in Washington. ``And from the very beginning, I mean from Aug. 7.''
................
Bernanke lacks the flexibility of his counterparts at the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, who hold news conferences after rate decisions that allow a fuller discussion of the meetings. The Bank of England chief also holds quarterly press briefings.

In the U.S., investors are left to interpret a statement of about 100 words................

London NYAM 16:27 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
KL//Stick to the 5-10 pips if its working for you KL. You cant switch styles just like that. Unless you are a gifted chamealeon like trader ;)

KL 16:25 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
wow tjanks london nyam..before his i only take from 5-10 pips/trade..already find out dat this forum is a really good place u hear ur trade idea :)

seattle AW 16:21 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
I guess false patriots who wrap themselves in the flag don't know a real one when they see him...

seattle AW 16:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Bailing out the Jumbo loan market with bonds and dropping rates ain't gonna bring on a "bottom" any time soon...

Here comes the Age of the Mighty Loonie!

London NYAM 16:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
KL//Just trying to maximize the trade. Like Kevin ive been short from above 1.99 so its slightly easier to stay in. The next wave should drop below 1.9850 and test 1.9800 to 1.9720. All provided that we stay below todays high.

Amman wfakhoury 16:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Kuala Lumpur 16:16 GMT January 30, 2008
gbp.usd heading twd 19830

Kuala Lumpur 16:16 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
thanks guy..so u hardly expected gbpusd to bear to 1.985?

London NYAM 16:11 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
kuala// :(
resold half my t/p at 1.9885 holding the other for a shot at 1.9905-15

Kuala Lumpur 16:08 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
seems like reflection on gbpusd..:(

Amman wfakhoury 15:57 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
SW 15:49 GMT January 30, 2008
sorry guys I just had to ask
=======
first..why you are asking such question.
I dont think that the gambler can give you the exact target.

Global-View 15:56 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Quito & Zeus. Can you please take your discussion to the Political Forum. TIA

SW 15:54 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DONE WITH MY TA FOR THE USDYEN...I see a Sqeeze to 1081 on a 50 point cutt Rally...On a 25 point..I see 10490 IMO...GL
My Offer stands there, if I miss it...OH well know Postion Today..

SW 15:49 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
sorry guys I just had to ask

Amman wfakhoury 15:40 GMT January 30, 2008

Are you a gambler or a Trader?

London NYAM 15:47 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:42//Kudos to you for your calm posts. Funny how actually fighting for your country doesnt seem to get as much respect as one would have thought.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:42 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
As my dad LTC retired would say Melborne abt internet static today (my platy shimmies 2day too & not one you mentioned), "It's dem dam communists again, they done it." I think all neighborhoods should have 1 resident communist/NWO "agent" (has to have Matrix black suit 'n sun glasses to be a most effective dart board) to blame things on & cuss out now 'n then just for good measure. "I'll be back" (quote from CA's gov Arnold Schwarz-actor) @ FOMC regurgitation time...y'all know my possie so I'm either a public ucky winner or unlucky loser on i-autopilot. Kids, don't do this at home.

Zeus, I's not anti USA. I's a vigorous patriot pro 1776. What it's come to since then is what I (& mlns of other patriots) dislike. A return to 1776 views but in modern concepts..there's the joy...& fallen soldier's angels who gave their all for 1776 principles would smile. Mee too.

Amman wfakhoury 15:40 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 14:25 GMT January 30, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 11:16 GMT January 30, 2008
Dont worry about me Bob , it is sure trade till 158.60
dont miss it.
=====
eur.jpy next tp 158.85

==============
15885 filled next tp3 159.40

SW 15:39 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
EUROYEN pulled back slightly on Oil BUILD

London NYAM 15:39 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:34 GMT// fwiw im not taking out the whole position, i hope to sell it back later.

Kuala Lumpur 15:36 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
THANKs so much.it must be helpfull :) anyway im agree wif that position

USA Zeus 15:35 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 15:33 GMT January 30, 2008

Sure. My pleasure. :-)

HK Kevin 15:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 15:30 GMT, agree 1.9810/20 as t/p for short position. Am also short from 1.9920. Also short NZD at 8822 earlier with 30 pips stop

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 15:33 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Zeus...could I get your e-mail from GV? i would like to ask you a question.

London NYAM 15:30 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Kuala Lumpur 15:24 //you talkin to me? if so id keep it tight at 1.9871 AND T/P at 1.9810/20. Or if your position trading theres a bit above 1.9892, 1.9907 and then the high today as stops.

USA Zeus 15:29 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 15:20 GMT January 30, 2008

Interesting...."Indiana Chuck”. LOL...I would have guessed Georgia or Missouri.

With all the anti- USA rhetoric why don't you just belly up to the high roller table and throw down the big balls on the USD "crash" bet instead of chipping away at the penny slots next to that old guy who just cashed his welfare check and recharged his oxygen bottle for another week of excitement at the casino?

Otherwise, what is the use of anti USA propaganda in perpetuity if there is no strong conviction behind such?

Peace

melbourne DC 15:28 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
GVI Jay 15:25gmt
I thought that's the general impression of ECB strategy : talk tough (so can) do nothing.

GENEVA DS 15:27 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
As we are living in a globalized world, we also need to globalize Interest Rates and FX-Rates.... which means (my old theorie)... all rates in our world to ZERO like Japan, as they will not be able to rise them anytime soon... so world has to adopt the strategy of the weakest.... good luck and looking for 0.75 pct tonight and another 0.75 pct intrameeting in February ... good trades

Kuala Lumpur 15:24 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
already short at that point..an suggestion of tp n sl?

London NYAM 15:21 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
taking some profit on the gbpusd shorts ay 1.9860 ask. But still looks good for a couple hundred points.
Valdez//Sounds pretty fun!

melbourne DC 15:20 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Two of brokers are down . c m c and fx cm . anyone else having problem? anything to do with the middle east internet outage?

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:20 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Naw Zeus, expat since 90s, Nam 2X in 60s, special op NCO, fully registered w/ State Dept. here via Ec's Am. Consulate here, coffee occasionally w/their rep, was on the books "volunteer worker" ;^) for that office actually then quit some yrs. back to use time otherwise. Have permanent lifetime visa issued by Ec in 90s copy at State Dept also..hehe, no secret, tho not nationalized (yet), married in - exotic wife is Ec. since same 90s, she's registered also w/ US State Dept. & has Ec tax # for her biz's. All on paper, no run hehe...although your kind assesment adds to my "mystique" LOL...of Indiana Chuck. Yes I do wear 40s style hat but no guns, man of peace, Sra. Hillary types would love me..Dream on.

Say, where's OBL lately, hain't CIA got him -yet-? Whata soap opra in intel, eh? But if they get OBL no joy, no war...you can't win a war that's designed to be protracted so Daddy Warbucks can gain. Ah the adventure of living in these times.

isr jweb 15:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
aha sam. and gold prints 1000..

slv sam 15:09 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
just my opinion today after fed euro > 1.49+ gbp >2.0050...etc..GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:02 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
NYAM, yup. Good to be retired...was getting itchey to change name/venues with all that "history" LOL. Was only 60's era "field" intel (MI/spook). A "has been", not pertinent today, only a basis for jokes etc.. Coffee's nice, peaceful biz. Still do archeology, astronomy, time/space theory spec, alternative energy research...cheap magnetless generator wind system, transparent $28/meter glass skylight water heater sitting in my office blabla...boring to most.

MTL yup, today a small possie. can go either way but wouldn't be surprized @ a warning spike @ or shortly befoer FOMC's output, opposite day's NY close. Large possie Swiss put in long ago at 1.24xx so have no worries..hedge only & not easily liquidated in CD form, just protection vs other key cncy faults, so far so good. Ecuador uses USD exclusively as cncy but relatively recently permits EUR acct's in banks...wonder why? Interesting times.

USA Zeus 15:01 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:48 GMT January 30, 2008
I get the strong sense from all of your anti USA propaganda that you are an ex-patriot on the run. Perhaps since late 60's early 70's....

SW 14:57 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
I see another 40 points when the DOW turns Green....Im awaiting! GL

Makassar Alimin 14:55 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
SW 14:50 GMT January 30, 2008

yes, I am testing the water to get a feel of the short term sentiment prior to FOMC

SW 14:50 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:49 GMT January 30, 2008

I call your stop...a buy..thax

Makassar Alimin 14:49 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
just shorted eurjpy 158.68, stop above 159.40

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:48 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
..there ya go Zeus..hehe, true story. Moral, don't be bearish on Borish. Just some more coffee shop chat, be aware who's been stashing hoards of Au + arms & testing mlitary ground based sat hitting lasers lately & who's been building up a spy level = "cold war" levels all of a sudden according to USA's spook chief. Russia + China. China practically owns Latin Am due to trade/mineral-petroleum/military & tech exchange deals...exceptions Paraguay, Colombia (USA's foreign aid buddies). Key ports managed by Hutchison (China's sexily English named control tower). USA's mkt & control leverage dissolving fast. Question is how Washington will take this...sitting down at tea or standing up w/pistol? Russia's relation w/UK, USA waning while China needs USA as a love doll that doesn't say much yet "puts out". Interesting times.

Mtl JP 14:47 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
valdez 14:18 / re risk with -75 or NO CUT ...will move 100-200 pips... that sort of move would call for cautious (i.e small possie) trade just in case one gets caught wrong-footted.

2 Qs: a) which has the better odds of happening: -75 or NO CUT
b) see any one pair in particular over any other for play ?

SW 14:46 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
yen...getting drilled....no selling pressure in nearsight for the euroyen....gl all

London NYAM 14:39 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
valdez/ex spy, ex archeologist, coffee grower and fx trader. You get around mate.

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:38 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
http://www.global-view.com/forex-trading-tools/rates/usratesa.html a good read, free tool from GV...FOMC info.

1830 GMT FOMC in a hew hours - we'll see the test of all our coffee-shop chat LOL. I wonder how well FOMC office windows do w/ infrared dopl'r laser from Edmund Scientific's hardware store fired from across the street LOL. Read: laser earphones har har...the old spy in me still.

USA Zeus 14:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
"Price makes news, not the other way around."
Peter Borish

Amman wfakhoury 14:28 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
gbp.usd sell now 19880 tp 19830 sell another if rise.

mad 14:27 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
that cool for my post of mad 14:23 GMT January 30, 2008

I posted the entire address and the FF changed it in a "LINK". That s magic 8-)

mad 14:26 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
usd/yen traders . either
1- they know something that we do not know
or
2- they want to make us believe something for us to get caught

8-)

Amman wfakhoury 14:25 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 11:16 GMT January 30, 2008
Dont worry about me Bob , it is sure trade till 158.60
dont miss it.
=====
eur.jpy next tp 158.85

mad 14:23 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
they call it learning the hardway, don t they ?

Merrill to Exit CDO, Structured Credit Businesses, Thain Says
LINK

mad 14:20 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
...and keep hedging... 8-)

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:18 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
There's 2 surprise possibilities, both will move charts for the time being. One is -.75 & the other is NO CUT. In both cases charts will move 100-200 pips today. If -.25 or -.50 bp cut then it's more or less priced in. What we DO NOT know is what big fish have planned on any sort of news whatsoever, it may have nothing to do with the amount of cut, it's that they're waiting for confirmation to proceed with their planned moves. It could be completely opposite to "our" logic and "our" logic is zero importance to the control tower. You have to realize FX is control tower, not anything else. Of course daily ups and downs are just noice and mkt flounce, the general movement long term however IS control tower. You can play long term or try to scalp daily fluctuations.

Some call USD in a breakout dip and some are buying in as a result...i.e. USD/JPY. Buys of high yield cncy's on the back of fed rate cut include AUD, NZD. remains as supportive factor in AUD/USD...especially with RBA expected to hike twice more in Mar, Apr.

PAR 14:13 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Euro rises against yen and yuan .

bilbao PEDRO 14:08 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
US SW....i am short Platinum 1710,Gold, since 915, SI at 1674....so yes, looks like the DAY....

mad 14:07 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
don t trust anyone ....and the market in particular !!!!

No cut IMHO !!!!

8-)

Time for a siesta !!!!!

FXPhenom-Iowa JPC 14:03 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USD showing some muscle to the newbie currency EUR soon..."How do you like them apples." should be appropriate in the coming few weeks, whether that is directed at me or the opposite viewed GV forum traders is to be seen shortly....Enjoy the rise of USD and hopefully this time we will be a lot more humble with a strong economy and live within our means.....

US SW 14:01 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:51 GMT January 30, 2008

IMO...don't think so with the EURO being as it is strong here and the dollar forming a bottom!

PAR 14:00 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   



Polish Central Bank Lifts Interest Rates

1/30/2008 8:58:18 AM The Polish central bank hiked its interest rates by 0.25 percentage point at its monthly meeting on Wednesday in a bid to curb inflation.

The bank's main interest rate was hiked to 5.25% and Lombard rate to 6.75%. The deposit rate was increased to 3.75%, while rediscount rate was raised to 5.50%.

Putting pressure on the central bank to lift interest rates, inflation exceeded its target of 2.5%. In December, inflation accelerated to 4% from 3.6% in November.

A preliminary report from the statistical office showed today that the economy had grown 6.5% in 2007, faster than 6.2% seen in 2006.

The National Bank of Poland stated that the new interest rates will come into force as of January 31.



Hasselt Red 13:58 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad 13:56 GMT January 30

...and this forum is becoming very european.. lol

mad 13:56 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Now we are talking -

Jerome, the rogue trader a la Camembert

"He once thought of himself as having a way with the ladies but sex is the furthest thing from his mind. He's ceasing to be French. He's becoming American." bloomberg!

LOL 8-)

US SW 13:52 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
ALERT>>>Take alook @ Platinum Futures...Maybe time to sell?

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:51 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
short USD/CHF to be exact, have most family cash parked in CHF CD instrument @ bank also. "swissy" = USD/CHF. But please don't copy my trade just for the sake of copying it unless U're on practice demo acct..

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:47 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
MTL JP, good U said that! Too many of "us" want to think we know what's going to happen & expound all sorts of "logic" blabla to justify our actions when in fact we are totally ignorant. At best we're lucky & pats on the back reward us in a completely false perception of reality. Profit taking on USD shorts I see before FOMC...a stop eating environment. It's easuer to try to invent a time machine worm hole gizmo to sit in to tip yourself off yesterday than outguess the control tower.

Stubbornly replaced USD/CHF short @ 1.0915 s/l @1.0991 TP 1.0845, I'll adjust TP south if downspike...sell order brackets still in place. Not much wager $ wise w/ low margin...this is funsie casino FX. Raining, can't do anything else! LOL, fully expect a spike north stop eater if indeed swissy day ends < 1.080. Sometimes I like roulette...& that's what today is.

London NYAM 13:46 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Perrie shall we take this outside? Suggest the Poli forum...

Como Perrie 13:44 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
NYAM

this w/e was reading some strategic military stuff and apparently all is set for nukes. when and where unknown, but you can figure out easily.

London NYAM 13:43 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Perrie//dont think the apocalypse is a given.
I do think that selling gbpusd awith stop above the high is. ;)

Como Perrie 13:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
maybe some yen and sf deepence when the bombs will expldoe

Como Perrie 13:40 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 13:11 GMT January 30, 2008

whatever reps or dems the voter at the top they already thinking about the third atomic war, what else with all that paper unsolvable debt issues ..also iraq war starts to cost to much and adding more debt...so buy swissy and go home

US SW 13:39 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Damm, can't even talk...sorry folks

jkt-aye 13:38 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:25 GMT January 30, 2008
-----
are you short swissy or usdchf ? tia

US SW 13:32 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
are you sick yet....this ride just started...we have another 7hours to go...not even think of stick my neck out here on anything

Mtl JP 13:26 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
valdez 13:17 / have no fear, the economists are here and already planning the next phaze for you. It won' t matter if usd is or not some reserve ccy IF the IMF has its way:

Central banks urged to narrow differences: IMF
"...In a globalised world it makes all the sense to have as similar as possible systems and procedures," Mr Caruana said. ... Top officials at these central banks realise the shortcomings of these efforts and say they are already looking at ways to work together more effectively...."

The larger they grow, the bigger noise they make when they crash and hotter flame when they burn.. I am already thinking of how to position for profits from a homogenious field. ideas welcome.

London NYAM 13:26 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
That along with the Orders number yesterday: wonder if Fed will only come in with 25?

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:25 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
my very tight profit protecting stop taken out on short swissy & automatic TP happened, still want to short swissy tho..will let limit sells do the work now this close to FOMC. For newer traders, limit sells and buy orders in the frenzie that results form data days are much easier for a platform to negotiate for you than placing positions at the point or shortly after the mayhem starts. Often I see complaints that "my platform froze !#*!/^! it!" at the crucial times. That's why limit orders were invented so you would be assured of a "take". Your trading plan should include limit orders for that reason..they always "take". Also, at the feeding frenzie times there are holes in prices..that is it's not a smooth run of prices by the pipm it skips some...therefore your position you're trying to place frantically may not be taken because there never existed your entry price. It's called "price gaps" and happens when movement is radically fast.

London 13:23 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
all that says to me is what a load of rubbish that ADP series is...

London Big Blind 13:22 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
bilbao PEDRO 13:07 GMT January 30, 2008
I have no idea what will happen today. Actually, what I see is a fall against chf, eur, gbp, cad also and I call this the "too easy configuration", which means the market is like buying a rumor to sell it at the release.So, as you said, being short could be the best thing to do. I'd rather buy though.Eur/usd at 1.4735, sterling 1.9875.

London NYAM 13:20 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
ADP came in wayyyy above expectations. Euro and co look out below.
;)

USA Zeus 13:20 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad 13:18 GMT January 30, 2008

The truth may set you free.

mad 13:18 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
i am confused !!! Again ...

8-)

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Mtl JP 12:56 GMT January 30, 2008 ..SO glad you posted this again. It doesn't hurt at all to be redundant on important concepts. Fiat currency (which by now is all cncy's even CHF) is supported only by demand, not basis. That's why USD tanked at 9-11 and EZ with it...a breach in the wall people didn't think would happen. World econ is incredibly fragile, the slightest shimmey & you have chaos. There is very little momentum, but unfortunately lots & lots of seemingly small trigger variables that in the right harmonic timing can undermine the strongest hardened bunker. Of course it can't ever never happen again, right? dahhh...

mad 13:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC won't raise output quotas at a meeting this week and may need to cut production in the months ahead because of slowing world economic growth and rising oil inventories, Qatar's energy minister said.

``The world has sufficient supply, even oversupplied in some places,'' Qatar's Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Doha today. ``So to increase, I don't think this is on the agenda.''

St. Annaland Bob 13:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
just a gut, I think we did not see even the starter of this credit thing ... so, this the last post for today and good trades to everyone!

US SW 13:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 13:05 GMT January 30, 2008

how come everytime things get tough we go bomb someone...and yes, interestes by then will go upp!

London NYAM 13:11 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Big mistake warfare has been having declining returns on investment since the 1950s. Waste of money time lives and effort. Better spent at home, but as is abundantly obvious short-termists and militaristic hot-heads aren't done killing themselves off (to the glee the of the Defense industry). But it will and the dollar won't get what Gartman expects, but you cant trade that. Should have learned from the old enemy the Soviets...hubris.

USA Zeus 13:08 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
They will gladly finance it because it is a risk free investment.
Besides what is 70 bios? 0.005 of the 14 trio economy or?

bilbao PEDRO 13:07 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London, i just saw the youtube video on $ destiny....Its Fine, but nothing new....
The Euro just has its big problems too to be world's currency...
This might be perfect time to buy tons of US Dollars when you are all very negative....Gold, Silver,All up , dollar down....nothing new but be contrarian....Good luck!!!

Mtl JP 13:07 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
13:15GMT ADP Jobs (000) market expects +40

personaly I don' t want to trade this release

quito_ecuador_valdez 13:05 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
US SW 13:01 GMT January 30, 2008
And Asia, Moscow will be glad to buy the T bills to finance it. Silly world, eh?

US SW 13:05 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
with that said....Good luck everyone...I decided to square upp and stay in cash until I see this wild ride stop taking tickets...when one of you here is very wrong or we move .02 on the euro either way..Ill be in...to scalp some heads

US SW 13:02 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
good day to sit on the sidlines..and weightt for either side to start to bleed

US SW 13:01 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DOD wants $70 billion more for wars - seattle AW, January 29, 2008

I have a feeling in 8 years...70 Bill..wil just be the beginning of it

isr jweb 13:00 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
ok, im summarising the situation: some of us think that the euro will bounce to 1.50 or close to that today, some think its going for a crash...

wow, that leaves me worse than with what i started.. unknowing and flat...

mad 12:58 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
UBS Reports Record Loss After $14 Billion Writedown-bblmg

I feel SocGen will buy UBS and put Jerome in charge of their Risk Management desk

8-)

Mtl JP 12:56 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
As long as the dollar remains the world's reserve currency (and it will remain so as long as the US remains the world's dominant military power, for it is military power that protects, ultimately, the position of the reserve currency nation. - INTERVIEW WITH DENNIS GARTMAN May 24, 2006

The base of FX is ultimately how well the market PERCEIVES a country's military and/or allies can defend its money. That means keeping alive to pay its debts too. Even tho USD has taken a beating the US military can protect itself & faith that USA is not going to be taken over. - quito_ecuador_valdez, Jan 2008

DOD wants $70 billion more for wars - seattle AW, January 29, 2008

London NYAM 12:54 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
If you didnt catch that:
50% of 2.0564 12 dec high and 1.9336 22 jan low = 1.9950

US SW 12:50 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Sold my euroyen...Planning a strategy to get short the usdyen...selling the euro above 14840 GL ALL

London Big Blind 12:44 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
I'm not saying the dollar will collapse at free fall speed today, even if the Fed cuts the rate, simply the big picture is ugly.

London 12:43 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Zues - the end of the american hegemony is just around the corner

London Big Blind 12:42 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 12:33 GMT January 30, 2008
Watch this. This is a pro doing a very relevant and convincing presentation on the dollar's fate. Certain things never change, others do.
"The Ultimate American Dollar Collapse"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RhnHo3RDfg

USA Zeus 12:33 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
The USD represents and is backed by the largest, most innovative, most productive, most resilient economy on the planet. It is no wonder the powers to be have chosen it to be the global reserve currency of choice by a margin of nearly 2/3. Look no farther back in history than a week ago when the global markets were in a free fall. The US was (once again) the safe haven for investors. Prepare to see the strong USD policy to wipe out traders who believe otherwise.


Happy Day!

Auckland Trotter 12:29 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:12 GMT January 30, 2008
Those that are in control of ‘economic decisions’ are not those that are publicly on display for election to government positions.

The Netherlands Purk 12:28 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
ZEUS: and this was the first thing that you did when entering that beautiful room with sunny breakfast? PLOL.
Have a happy day!

USA Zeus 12:26 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Mortgage refi boom is right on the horizon. Prelim activity suggests it will be at a tremendous clip.

London NYAM 12:22 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 12:12//Probably becuase im also an ex-digger (NE).
Not that it would happen, but the Fed is only making things worse and should just leave things alone. Coordinated efforts between SWF and the US government into infrastructure overhauling in the US like Hoover dam projects etc (preferably a green revolution) reinvigorating the construction and employment sector would pull things out on a global sscale but it would be unpopular and it would take some time to work. IMHO. Of course this is best left to the Political forum.

mad 12:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
trotter , you are spot on
8-)

i feel the Dark force is behind this usd/yen ATM

That would be funny that Japanese officials come on the wires and say "Ok so you cut your interest rates by 50bp and we will cut ours by 75bp!"

LOL

Hong Kong BL 12:15 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
PAR 12:07 GMT January 30, 2008

Weaker USD is not equal to bad economy for others.

Strong Euro is good for FX trading if you long EUR/USD
all the way up from 2007.

I'm a euro bull since 2007, thanks for Trichet and others.

Exporting from Asia to the US at lower US dollars means
profit....

Cheers and happy trades

Hasselt Red 12:14 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad 11:19 GMT January 30, 2008

thank God for TA, for making those people simpler! Thats what it really is about. To get thousands and thousands of ta troopers on your side and make trading a self-fulfilling prophecy....in the short term. Many newcomers don't realise that looking down on the charts and is often one of the reasons they lack self-confidence....

Life is good! :-)

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:14 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Fed cuts are not cures, you'll agree Perrie. It's best for Fed to save ammo for a final assault, agree with you. Cuts won't cure core probs.

Como Perrie 12:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Overall FED is better to save the dollar today instead of the stock marekt by not cutting rates today imo. But this is contrary to most market expectations.

quito_ecuador_valdez 12:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 11:56 GMT January 30, 2008 You and I are on the same plane, leverage included. I love the analogy..hehev Gt amigo... ;^)

Como Perrie 12:09 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
am going to see ADP and GDP form US later on to dig It further. Most expected bad.

PAR 12:07 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
What slump? Honda powers to new record results
U.S. slump? What U.S. slump? That’s the question Honda Motor Co. is asking after another quarter of record results that spurred the Japanese automaker to lift an already cheery full-year profit forecast.

Como Perrie 12:02 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Also real voluemes in forex are not the billions marketedly spoken around. Real liquidiy is very small in reality, that's the reason liquidity issures get in and out as many times at they came, and many times at the price of losses from central banks and big banks.

Auckland Trotter 12:01 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad 11:54 GMT January 30, 2008
Yoda gave advice – with ‘the knowledge’, to those that wanted to fight. How those used his advise was up to them.

Como Perrie 11:58 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 11:28 GMT January 30, 2008

I see chaos as a system intervention, there's clear linearity into chaos too, larger term talking. Also decoupling has died with the recent crisis, so so called chaos enviroment which in forex is not chaos, but more properly It calles Brownian motion sort of river of flows flowing and changing and boucning to find next way to the seas. But that is phisics and finance phisics tells me there's no big lend left after writedowns, so at some point do expect sort of flooding in progress. Sort of new orleans


In between one of the trick to mantain browinian motion and adjust heavy risks hidden behind global assets i the crosses, they do not match differences between majors anymore, as there to be not anymore majors, but this is untrue once liquidity starts to drop down.

Thast's the primary reason FED has cut 3/4 else It would have alreayd exploded. Today market expcets 1/4 to 1/2, but fundamentally FED is risking stagflation, which was the main US concern from the 90s to present. Higher rates and no growth.

London NYAM 11:56 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Perie//Think the 'crash' is more like a very slow moving grinding pain with pops here and there and its already begun. if fact just as 1921 was the real high 1929 was the inflated high, 2000 was the real high and 2007 the inflated one. Now no amount of inflation will help (see other article in FT next to the chess one).
Also agree it is dangerous to pip this out but my leverage is so low you can barely see under it.

mad 11:54 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter 11:48 GMT January 30, 2008
../..Did Yoda hedge his bets?

yes he did. he always carried 2 or 3 new batteries with him for his Light Laser Saber !!!

8-)

Como Perrie 11:49 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
NYAM

I believe If the Usdchf goes below 1.08 or so the dollar would confirm ready for a wide spreaded crash... very difficult and danger behind the small pips moves here and there most looking.

Auckland Trotter 11:48 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad 11:16 GMT January 30, 2008
The basis of ‘the force’ is believing in yourself – i.e. the certainty of your trade.

If you are uncertain in yourself at the time of trading – then don’t trade

Did Yoda hedge his bets?

Lagos FXStallion 11:42 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
The European markets rose Tuesday on expectations of a further interest rate cut in the U.S., while strong U.S. durable goods orders data did provide investors some encouragement about the health of the world''s largest economy.The U.S. Federal Reserve opened a two-day meeting expected to bring another interest rate cut to revitalize the ailing U.S. economy. An announcement on the Fed''s decision is expected Wednesday afternoon. The Fed reduced its benchmark rate by 0.75 percentage point to 3.5% on January 22. The U.S. Commerce Department said in its report that durable goods orders jumped 5.2% in December following a revised 0.5% increase in November. Economists had expected orders to rise 1.5% compared to the 0.1% decrease originally reported for the previous month.Crude for March delivery rose $0.49 to $91.48 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, by the time the European markets closed, as traders look ahead to inventory data on Wednesday. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of pan-European blue chips closed 1.6% higher at 1,338.28 points, while the narrower DJ Stoxx 50 index rose 1.38% to 3,256.69 points.Around Europe, the U.K.''s FTSE 100 index surged up 1.66% to 5,885.20

Amman wfakhoury 11:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 11:21 GMT January 30, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 11:16 GMT January 30, 2008
=====
i appriciate your feeling and your care about others , let
give you name guard loss from wfakhoury.

Auckland Trotter 11:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
And now we see the EUR/USD with the level around 1.4802, with sell signals – ref. my previous post.


Can anyone explain the sudden surge in price for the EUR/USD around US EST 05:12?

London NYAM 11:28 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   

Como Perrie 11:20//
I dont disagree with your long term view. But it is a chaotic system and the time frames must be set in vague terms (prefer continued pain scenario lasting 5-12 more years). Unless you are Nostradamous.

mm//who incidentaly are reforming. uggg.
small long eurusd 1.4801 stop 1.477x target 1.484x

mad 11:24 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 10:13 GMT January 30, 2008

hedging is the (not) so new Kid on the Block
8-)

St. Annaland Bob 11:21 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 11:16 GMT January 30, 2008
Dont worry about me Bob , it is sure trade till 158.60
dont miss it.


--- 100% don't worry about you and even 100% don't care about you as you bring innocent and probably new to FX people into HUGE risk with your posts ... I care about the people who may follow your posts as a trade!

Como Perrie 11:20 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 11:10 GMT January 30, 2008


there are just basic human needs that are fundamental to economics, when people start to borrow money for cellphones and vacations, believe in a dozen years a huge crisis happens. It was decades before the roman emperor crached that most of the economy there was based onto ever bigger colleseum spectacles and beside ever less wars ever more religion and corruption... than It collpased for ever as at the end became basically a theocracy

but this is very long term view, even if all points there

mad 11:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Hasselt Red 10:50 GMT January 30, 2008

I have a friend who had his fair share of problems like the rest of us. But he always told me -
"Life is simple, people are complicated."

8-)

St. Annaland Bob 11:18 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   

--- fellow traders ---

online platforms will experience today many breakdowns and connection problems ... make sure you don't get trapped !

Auckland Trotter 11:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Hasselt Red 10:50 GMT January 30, 2008
The calendar on: http://www.dailyfx.com/
Gives explanations for fundamental releases.

mad 11:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
PAR 11:02 GMT January 30, 2008
"Boj rate cut may be needed in future " Japanese econ councils Ito . Too much sake ?

Or not enough...LOL

Como Perrie 11:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
stops 70 to 30 by thumb

Como Perrie 11:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 11:10 GMT January 30, 2008


usdchf was bought down there 10880 approx stops are 10870 tp 30.. part of noise traders or volatility traders already cached in full and next hours will tell once the noise gets over.. so guess an intraday profit point was already touched, at least once...at times goes there again at times not..

me now reduced ahead of FED in previous hours, just coupla things, not really the way the forum speaks.

mad 11:16 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 10:13 GMT January 30, 2008
mad 08:07//unbelievable. I never hedge and today it works. 4x short gbpusd 2x short usdjpy and 2x long gbpjpy.

keep hedging Waveman, Keep hedging !!!
harder, harder , harder, longer, longer, longer
Aaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrggggggggg lelua !!!!!!

LOL

hedging is the the Force...But there is a dark side of the Force
8-)

Ben "Yoda" is coming soon !!! he might #$%^#$&$% all our hedging positions !!!!!
8-)

Amman wfakhoury 11:16 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Dont worry about me Bob , it is sure trade till 158.60
dont miss it.

Amman wfakhoury 11:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 11:05 GMT January 30, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 10:58 GMT January 30, 2008
====
thks Bob..i did another buy @ 158.15

quito_ecuador_valdez 11:10 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Perrie, just my observation, mergers/acquisitions of banks means 1 goes under & is saved when another bank buys it out or merges with it. The Swiss for example, explained to me by a banker at UBS in Geneva once, have a protection plan for their banking system..if a bank gets wobbly it is immediately "merged" or "bought out" by a pool of more healthy banks before the word gets out it's going under. That way the Swiss reputation isn't hurt. He said the more mergers & buyouts you see the more wobbles in the banking sector. Sure enough in the USA I began noticing this after Mr. Geneva banker pointed it out to me.

Our swissy short @ 1.0946 OK since placed last PM - dunno whether to TP now or wait for the FOMC whipsaw. Methinks USD mv'mt down during Asian is in prep for -.50bp or -.75 cut so will lower my stop to protect some profit & continue riding the freight train. But long term, it's not cuts that'll have the final word, cuts are temp. bandaids for core problems, it's a world of other issues.

Who here thinks FOMC will cut <.50 or >.50? And why?

I expect to see a stop-eating upward spike in USD/XXX before a final plunge @ FOMC today likely from liquidations of shorts to TP before FOMC's decision & for that reason have a swissy sell order hovering @ 1.0973 & another under the floor @ 1.0824 to bracket the action one way or the other. Caveat, if mkt buys USD if FOMC = -.25 then our swingtrade dies. But our long term possie short, not.

I think doom/gloom has been said so much in the last 10-15 years it falls on deaf ears but really, financial situation in key countries i.e. layers of credit paper (debt w/ no strong basis) will catch up sooner than later. Suppose one does have gold, how do you buy groceries with a bar of gold worth the entire super market? Whittle off a piece to weigh it or inherit a super market? Who would have "change" to give you back?

Zeus, about last night's conversation regarding USD, I wasn't talking about T bills, was talking about the credit house of cards built in USA & other key countries that can collapse easily. It has nothing to do w/ Tbills, directly. The hope that's circulating is USD can't possibly tank or else the world tanks (all dem T bills & bonds tank too taking CBs out like flies). So what? I say, the world CAN possibly tank, the world says it can't but that's built on hope, not fact..difference of opinion between "world" & me. Afterall, 1 of us is right & popularity doesn't make something correct, only acceptible. "The world is flat! Anyone can see that!"

London NYAM 11:10 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:01//And you had to get all existential on my ...
In reality, I dont exist either except as an idea, of course.
Ill get back to you on this after I visit Purky.

St. Annaland Bob 11:09 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Geneva 10:58 GMT January 30, 2008

yes, I agree with you that 14500 will print again this year ... sharks provide bailout chances to each other ... that's the strongest feeling I got out the ""sub-prime crisis"" - all the bankers and the players with the larger hands are out there for each other when the conductor is the central banker ensuring his next job.

Lagos FXStallion 11:09 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
A bullish close above 1.9931 on the gbpusd should see us going long to a target of 1.9988. News on the U.S FOMC would either fuel the momentum upwards or push it down.

Hasselt Red 11:08 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
trotter, thnx mate

Hasselt Red 11:06 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 10:59 GMT J

grazie amico for the insight... Got TA down but never got too much into FA for its fluid nature, but from time to time i'm impressed by some of you here...

St. Annaland Bob 11:05 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:58 GMT January 30, 2008

[1] it was a suggestion for your nick, not for a trade! ... [2] I see your trading posts as -- Itbach El Account -- promotion [in english: slaughter your account] ... [3] better you trade that ""strategy"" alone and give up on picking people to trade with you as once you may cause a family to miss their next meal with such approach!

Auckland Trotter 11:04 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Hasselt Red 10:50 GMT January 30, 2008
For a start try – Trading in the Global Currency Markets – by Cornelius Luca.

PAR 11:02 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
"Boj rate cut may be needed in future " Japanese econ councils Ito . Too much sake ?

Como Perrie 11:01 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 10:53 GMT January 30, 2008

Free markets is a paradigm. In reality It does not exists except for top global elites.

Como Perrie 10:59 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Hasselt Red 10:50 GMT January 30, 2008

during war times fundamental factors are extemelly smoggy, complex and subject to many different possbile outcomes. So not easy to start with It at current, but sure there are many now in US selling webinars onto the theme, some are traders that are getting opportunities to make additional bucks when markets are dull, some are fianance people or CTAs that have been thrown out from jobs after the many mergings and aquisitions. But not all are that interesting in general. A simple book will be more than good, just browse amazon and see what they offer.

Beside till asset hidden inflation in neo economics is not shown out into markets completely, even if some (but maybe not more than some 5 pct at current global writedowns) fundamental readings will stay falsificated mostly.

You have also to count into the all national statistical changes sen in the last decade or so, if you try to compare historical serieses, for which most do not.

Roach of Morgan Stanley is considered one of the better economists at current, but there are many good ones growing particularly in Asia.

Amman wfakhoury 10:58 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:39 GMT January 30, 2008
20 pips if we buy eur.jpy now @158.38 IDBA(as Bob suggestion)

Geneva 10:58 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Even if the euro need to go above 1.50, 1.45 need to come before!

Auckland Trotter 10:55 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Hasselt Red 10:46 GMT January 30, 2008
Don’t know about ‘negative divergence’ on the RSI.

I use two RSI indicators set at different levels for various time charts – among other indicators.

PAR 10:54 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
May I borrow a little more ?

http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/01/28/
afx4582889.html

London NYAM 10:53 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Perie//The article was quite balanced, offering a view of the positives and negatives of planned vs free market economies. Both, taken to their extremes, are filled with madness.

Hasselt Red 10:50 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
btw, would like a book recommendation of forex fundamentals, nothing too complex....thnx

St. Annaland Bob 10:49 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
HK REVDAX 10:41 GMT January 30, 2008

I will be happy to have running short for FEB/08 averaging above 14815 - accumulate mode here, healthy position for 100pips monthly base is fine for me ... 14920 must be serious one, if 14850 turns to come out as trap.

Auckland Trotter 10:47 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:38 GMT January 30, 2008
‘EUR/USD tries to enter overshot region ... anyone agrees?’

Can you give a reason for the sudden ‘surge’ for the EUR/USD? If you can then I would reassess my opinion of a correction in the price at present.

Como Perrie 10:47 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 10:13 GMT January 30, 2008
ref From todays FT: the article on It's basis describes human madness, or how Greenspan has called It irrational exhuberance, where 95 pct of humanity is overall irrational, and tries to pump with peers their own naricisitic madness.



Como Perrie 10:10 GMT January 28, 2008
Subject:
Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Albert Einstein (1879 - 1955), (attributed)

PAR 10:47 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Weaker yen and yuan seems to be a permanent theme .

Hasselt Red 10:46 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter 10:34 GMT January 30

think rsi needs to shape a good neg divergence first on 1hr for a safer short term trade, but you're probably right, price at maximum levels on my charts...

London NYAM 10:43 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Bob//i think we hit 1.4847/50 first.

St. Annaland Bob 10:42 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:39 GMT January 30, 2008

change your nick to IDBA ... If Decline Buy Another ;)

HK REVDAX 10:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:38//Yes, what is the resistance level you have in mind? tks

Amman wfakhoury 10:39 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
20 pips if we buy eur.jpy now @158.38

St. Annaland Bob 10:38 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD tries to enter overshot region ... anyone agrees?

Auckland Trotter 10:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
slv sam 10:17 GMT January 30, 2008
“all is clear for euro at 1.4965”

Based on what, and what time scale are you looking at?

Profit from my previous posts with explanations.

Now, for me the market needs to reassessed, for short term trading:

Eg:
RSI’s on the short term charts show over bought, along with other indicators.

Therefore to trade now I would say sell EUR/USD.


The Netherlands Purk 10:22 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
It is good that the markets are moving. Rangeexpansion it is now. So one might expect 14878+ or 14650 today. Clear direction may expand it to 14940 or 14621.
Of course my dimes are on 14621

slv sam 10:17 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
all is clear for euro at 1.4965 imo.GT

London NYAM 10:13 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad 08:07//unbelievable. I never hedge and today it works. 4x short gbpusd 2x short usdjpy and 2x long gbpjpy.

From todays FT:
People who hold to a single idea, or a fixed design, generally lose at chess, as they lose in battle, in business and in economiucs. Great chess players apply a variety of principles, they sense patterns, they hold a formidable range of models and analyses in their mind without being a slave to any of them.

Como Perrie 09:52 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7876

The Financial Tsunami and the Evolving Economic Crisis:
Greenspan's Grand Design

Syd 09:46 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DJ Greenspan: Probability Of US Recession 50% - Die Zeit
Greenspan: Not Many Signs Recession Already Here - Die Zeit Greenspan: Fed Likely Can't Ward Off Recession - Die Zeit Greenspan:Econ Factors Stronger Than MonetaryPolicy-Die

Detroit sjb 09:44 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:39 GMT January 30, 2008
Who is the Parrot man?

Como Perrie 09:43 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
ECB took rescue last summer for 7 billion operational liquidity loss of a top euroland bank. Thomson reported.

Auckland Trotter 09:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter 09:16 GMT January 30, 2008
I see the EUR/USD needs to break the daily M3 pivot of 1.4786, which make an interesting level on the 30 min chart, and congested Bollinger bands on short term charts, for more up.

The market is going flat at the daily I5 pivot of 1.4777 with the opening of the UK market.

There must be a lot of uncertain come fickle ‘big traders’ at the moment.

Como Perrie 09:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Wellink: Comments from Dutch Cen Bank head:

Dutch banks faced increased liquidity constraints.

Subprime exposure of Dutch banks limited compared to international investment banks.

The Netherlands Purk 09:39 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
I smell parrots here...
Short e/u in again. Lets see if i can get some range from here.
Interest in buying usd/cad. usd/jpy: undecided yet. Maybe the Parrot man can short it again after some up move.

Maribor 09:33 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
I guess next week may be down week or it will not (significantly) exceeded this week high on cable(1,99277). Also this week high so far may not be (significantly) exceeded. So far things go according to plan for final(many years) high.

PAR 09:29 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
I want my money back .

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120163451782726077.html

Gen dk 09:27 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Auckland Trotter 09:16 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
For the EUR/USD I have:

R1 daily pivot 1.4802
R1 monthly pivot 1.4804

Last week showed a resistance level that was tested at 1.4796

Daily pivot 1.4769

The level around 1.4770 is an interesting one on the 5 min chart.


Generally see an up pressure for the EUR/USD from around 1.4770.

Other indicators I have give pressure to around 1.4820.


US interest rates due out after the UK market closes today, and Friday US non-farm payrolls.


We shall see. Next week the EUR/USD market could be more active.


warsaw TOMi 09:11 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
I have a problem with too much money. I can't reinvest it fast enough, and because I reinvest it, more money comes in. Yes, the rich do get richer.

PAR 09:07 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Booming japanese car manufacturing due to weak yen .

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/01/29/afx4590087.html

St. Annaland Bob 09:05 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USA 09:00 GMT January 30, 2008

hi someone's friend (not mine!) ... may peace will rest between your ears ... I am not in a cooking mood today, so I wish you peaceful day further.

USA 09:00 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
""take it easy, drink a SISI"
Is that a new chicken type Bob?

St. Annaland Bob 08:48 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
good morning! ... [WARNING] :

""Euro,Euro banknotes,Euro Banknotes and Coins,The euro coins have a common side and a national side,12 euro area countries,European Economic and Monetary Union,monetary policy,Eurosystem,euro,single currency,euro currency,Home page of the European Central Bank. The Web site of the ECB provides extensive information on the ECB and the European System of Central Banks, ESCB. The basic tasks to be carried out by the ESCB are defined in Article 3 of the ESCB Statute. These tasks include: to define and implement the monetary policy of the Community, to conduct foreign exchange operations, to hold and manage the official foreign reserves of the participating Member States, to promote the smooth operation of payment systems, and to contribute to the smooth conduct of policies pursued by the competent authorities relating to the prudential supervision of credit institutions and the stability of the financial system.""

ECB does not update their gate to the public, they still announce there are 12 EURO lands ... FED does not update too ... further, I am too lazy to check them all ... but, says enough about those responsible about providing us with financial policy and agenda.

""take it easy, drink a SISI"

Como Perrie 08:47 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
http://www.history.com/minisites/life_after_people/

PAR 08:45 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
A new alternative for sovereign wealth funds instead of money losing banks ?

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hjBWsqhqAXqr0ntkSTyYX_xBEbJA

HK REVDAX 08:43 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad 08:41 GMT//Various kinds of tea have various kinds of medical properties. Some actually cleanse your blood vessels.

mad 08:43 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
FWIW
How To Trade The Dollar On The FOMC Rate Decision

Article !

Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk....etc

melbourne DC 08:42 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Bearing Up Alan Kohler says it only hurts if you sell, and there could be great rewards for those who buy in the months ahead.

A volka for those of u with stocks portfolio (AK is a well-known AUS biz commentator; his above comment relate to stocks).
I am in agreement with him wrt moving my cash to blue chips soon, but just thought his ' it only hurts if you sell ' sounds not the best choice of words.

mad 08:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
or try herbal tea instead of 50 cups of coffee per day

8-)

London NYAM 08:33 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
ldn 08:31// lol!

ldn 08:31 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 08:30 GMT January 30, 2008
..or lay off the weed!;;;;;

PAR 08:31 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DJ DATA SNAP: Spanish December Retail Sales Down 1.9% On Year.

London NYAM 08:30 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
island//If the currencies start to seem alive to you and are toying with your account you may want to:
a) lower your leverage
b) put down the coffee
c) step away from the keyboard

;)

mad 08:22 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind

Cool

8-)

Island JPFX 08:22 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
weew.. GU and UC is playing with my account here!!!! Funny stuff...

London Big Blind 08:21 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad 08:15 GMT January 30, 2008
I do! I quiet glad with the name I've chosen: whatever happens, you were warned in the first place.

mad 08:20 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
For all those math lovers


Table of Derivatives

http://www.math.com/tables/derivatives/tableof.htm

mad 08:15 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM
I know

I just hope big Blind see the funny side of it

8-)

London NYAM 08:13 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad ldn//lol pretty funny :)
...but seriously i wasnt trying to make a dig. i am long the pair and wanted to try and see what the trader meant.
So the big day had arrived!

mad 08:13 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind all i can say is that i am not the only one with keyboard "challenges"

8-)

Maribor 08:13 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USDCAD low probability to close week down => should see >1,0066 weekly close(now ,9985).

mad 08:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind , i admire your style and trading technic ...

Yesterday you got filled usd/cad @ 0.0007... can i have the name of your platform please ?

LOl

London Big Blind 08:11 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 08:05 GMT January 30, 2008
Sorry , I meant short at 0.9980 for 0.9905, stop 1.0005 or if it holds 0.9980

mad 08:07 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
waveman it is a new hedging technic
8-)

People plse keep hedging today !!!!

8-)

Ben "Yoda" is making an announcement tonight for those who did not know

LOL

ldn 08:07 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind 08:01 GMT January 30, 2008

Translation " i need a guide dog.."..lol..

London NYAM 08:05 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
London Big Blind 08:01//?? translation please? tia

London Big Blind 08:01 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Short usd/cad for 0.9905, stop 0.9905 or 30"min above 0.9880

Syd 07:36 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
UBS AG (UBS), one of Europe's worst hit banks by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, Wednesday warned it will post a record loss in 2007 due to higher-than-expected write-downs linked to risky subprime holdings.

The world's largest wealth manager, which still has large subprime holdings on its books, said it expects a full-year net loss of about 4.4 billion Swiss francs, or about $4.02 billion, due to losses worth about CHF16 billion tied to the meltdown of the U.S. subprime and residential markets.

The losses linked to bank's subprime holdings are markedly higher than what UBS stated in December when it detailed its exposure to these markets for the first time. In December, UBS had said it wrote down positions worth $10 billion. On Wednesday, the losses stood at $14 billion.

Analysts believe the bank could make more write-downs during the year as UBS still has substantial subprime holdings on its books. In December, UBS said it still owned about $29 billion in subprime holdings. The bank didn't provide an update.

"The loss is higher than expected," said Zuercher Kantonalbank analyst Andreas Venditti, who rates the stock at market perform. "The additional losses were especially disconcerting. This will probably lead to further uncertainty."

The company, which also expects to post a fourth-quarter net loss of around CHF12.5 billion, will provide detailed financial figures on Feb. 14.

Meanwhile, UBS also provided more details on its efforts to improve its balance sheet.

"During fourth-quarter 2007, UBS reduced its balance sheet and risk weighted assets," the bank said. "The combination of the fourth quarter result, the stock dividend, the re-issue of treasury shares and the reduction in risk weighted assets mean that UBS will report a BIS Tier 1 ratio of 8.8% as of 31 December 2007," it said.

The BIS Tier 1 ratio level, a figure that indicates a bank's balance sheet strength, is likely to improve further later this year if UBS gets shareholder support for a planned CHF13 billion capital increase.

The capital increase is set to be backed by the Government of Singapore Investment Corp., or GIC, and an unnamed Middle East investor.

While analysts believe that shareholders are likely to accept the plan, UBS, however, is expected to face strong criticism at its extraordinary general meeting Feb. 27.

Several activist shareholders have said they want to block the capital increase which, they say, favors two groups at the expense of existing shareholders.

Some of them, including Swiss fund Profond, have asked UBS to propose a rights issue for all shareholder rather than selling a convertible bond to GIC and the unnamed Middle East investor.

UBS has defended the plan, saying that a rights issue was too costly and time-consuming.

mad 07:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
not yet...8-)

Amman wfakhoury 07:16 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
mad 06:49 GMT January 30, 2008
=====
good to hear that you are not so confused today.

slv sam 06:59 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
if you want to make 1-2% profit till the end of this week then:
SHORT EURCHF. GT

mad 06:56 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
have a gr8 day and may the force be with you.

8-)

mad 06:52 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
* German wise man Peter Bofinger says strength of the euro poses risks to Germany's economic growth this year. - BBG.

* ABC/Washington Post US consumer comfort index falls to almost 5 year lows of -27, its 25 - week of double digit negative, longest run since 2002-2003. Buying climate hit 14-year lows, with only 28% calling it a good time to buy things.

* WSJ: The FBI has opened criminal inquiries into 14 companies as part of a wide-ranging investigation of the subprime crisis, FBI officials said. The probe is focusing on accounting fraud, securitization of loans and insider trading, among other areas.

* NKS evening edition: Mizuho Securities Co., a Mizuho Financial Group Inc group firm, will likely book about Y250b in subprime mortgage-related losses, nearly double level projected in Nov.

* UK Times: European banks, incl BNP Paribas and Santander, are understood to be evaluate bids for Société Générale.

* Sydney Morning Herald: The solvency of the broking house Tricom may be in question after it was unable to cover the cost of trades yesterday. While: Gold Coast-based MFS Limited has temporarily shut down its largest unlisted investment vehicle.

* UBS will report a net loss attributed to shareholders of approx CHF4.4bln for full year 2007. While Merrill may face extra $10bln in write downs - says Oppenheimer & Co - newswire

* All eyes and ears at 1915GMT - for the quantum and tone of Fed cut and statement - talks making rounds US think-tank (name may have been confused) seeing no cut at all!

* USD/JPY, Cross/JPY torn between 2 Japanese forces - on topside 107.10-50 talks of exporters, trust banks sales and eurozone, US coupons related buy JPY repatriation. On downside 106.40-60, talks of toushin demand, with Japanese mega-city banks buying continually on drops and retail investors, Mrs Watanabes looking to buy Cross/JPY again, pension funds, lifers bids.

EUR/JPY a tad weighed by the multi-billion Eurozone coupons repatriation. EUR, EUR/JPY also seen a tad weighed by German Wiseman Bofinger comments that high Euro poses downside risks. EUR/JPY bids at 157 lows, while offers 158.30-50.

EUR "boxed" by 2 big interest - Chinese/Russians offers ahead of 1.4800 option barriers, while bids from Chinese/Russians again at 1.4740-50, helping to box it in range, with main focus still on Fed FOMC.

GBP up on EUR/GBP sales from UK clearers. AUD weighed by worries over Aust broker and hedge fund, with ASX coming under pressure, but good bids still at 0.8850 in AUD. NZD lower on dwelling consents falls, bids 0.7750

Nikkei -0.91%, -123.15pts at 13,355.71. JGBs firmer, 10-yr JGB yield -0.040% at 1.425%.

Crude oil remains firm after o/n rise, at $92.14.

Gold prices remain firm at $921.00/922.00.

mad 06:49 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
hello FX Jedi, it'sssssssssssssssssssssss FOMC day !!!!!!

Make sure your Jedi saber is "energized" with new battery

8-)

Syd 06:11 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USA Bay , I feel we really have to watch the Fed today , still see some more upside until the RBA meet but if they hold off it will fall . wouldnt like to recomment a postion ... below is interesting though
AUD/USD could sell off post-Fed decision regardless of size of interest rate cut with potential for Australian pension funds to sell AUD at month end, National Australia Bank currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos says. Adds global equities ex-Australia markets down 9% since start of month in AUD terms. Notes Australian pension funds' portfolios potentially "overhedged" by up to A$10 billion, would need to sell these AUD positions. Rally in equities markets could mitigate extent of selloff.

USA BAY 05:52 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
SYD,

HI, Where would you look to sell aud/usd. tia

Syd 05:41 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
The dollar and the euro slipped against the yen in Asia Wednesday as some Japanese players sold the two currencies to redeem euro-denominated bonds to lock in gains.

Other players, including short-term investors, refrained from active trading to see how stock prices will react to the policy rate decision by the Federal Open Market Committee meeting later in the day.

HK REVDAX 05:16 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez// Zeus//Sydney

Can any of your explain the difference between current account deficit and capital account deficit(or surplus) of the US?

For example, if US multinationals affiliates in China produce and market goods outside of the US, where does the profit go in the US national balance sheet?

Syd 04:28 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
EUR/JPY fall as Japan exporters who were waiting to sell USD/JPY above 107.50 started selling when pair failed to climb that high, says senior sales dealer at major Japan bank. Adds as some players starting to price in view FOMC may cut only by 25 bps later in day, stocks, USD now becoming "difficult to buy" since such a Fed action would disappoint markets.

Syd 04:25 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Sydney ACC And the C/A deficit , if it cant turn into a surplus with all this commodity news , it will only do so with a lower currency , the next C/A defiicit will be even higher

Sydney ACC 04:12 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   

If it weren't for the exports to China AUD would have followed the USD down. Australia only relies on the US for about 8% of its exports whereas New Zealand is double that. This percentage doesn't, however, the tell thewhole truth because Asia relies so much on the US as a market for its goods. Asia followed the Japan post war model of using the Us as the engine of its economy. The US has for the last 40 years been unable to meet its own demands internally. Japan built its economy satisfying that demand. Korea, Taiwan and now China follow the model.
Problem is the Us consumer is now broke from over indulging on cheap Asian imports.
As US consumption declines so will Australian exports to China. we will not revert to 1970's or 1980's export levels. For that reason Syd's level of mid 70's for AUD/USD is about right. BNP Paribas were forecasting mid 60's next year by the way.
As to will it get back to 93 cents, I don't think so. If it does then EUR is probably going to break 1.50.
Our current account is going to get worse over the course of the year. Interest rates are going higher which affects the cost of debt servicing exports have been hampered by bad weather.
I see the pressure coming a little earlier. Offshore investors will look to sell out earlier than the last quarter. AUD is near what I see as it's more recent topand will have difficulty getting through 90 cents.
There's a report compiled by the RBA which sees the AUD on air trade basis between 10 and 20 per ecnt overvalued when compared to the major currencies. For example they see the fair value at 51 euro cents. Have a look at that if you can't sleep one night.

Syd 03:36 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
HK Econ May Have Reached A Turning Point-Citi
Citigroup says HK economy may have reached a turning point, given its view that U.S. economy is sliding into recession; recent global stock market turmoil sends clear warning signal that favorable factors which have been supporting HK's boom over the past 3.5 years are fading. Says there are risks a U.S. recession could trigger worldwide slowdown; China faces downside risks in exports to its exports, but still has to maintain austere economic policies to contain inflation

Syd 03:34 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
BEIJING (AFP)--China has mobilized its army to help relief efforts following an intense cold front that has frozen the transport network and affected millions of people, state media reported Wednesday. At least 460,000 troops from the People's Liberation Army and paramilitary forces have been deployed across broad swathes of the country hit by weeks of heavy snow, Xinhua news agency said.
A million police officers have also been dispatched to maintain traffic flow on congested highways where traffic has ground to a halt in many places due to icy roads, the reports said.
A total of 78 million people have been affected in some way by the weather, which has covered large parts of central, southern and eastern China, according to media reports.
But the China Daily warned in an editorial that the effort was likely to be hampered due to the transport and communication chaos, especially with further snow, sleet and freezing temperatures forecast for the next few days. "With much of the transport web disrupted, it will be difficult to have relief materials delivered where they are most needed," it said.

Syd 03:32 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:50 excellent post and perfectly true , can see the USD recover in the 4th qtr. thks.

Wellington, N.Z. 03:14 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   


Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for WEDNESDAY - JANUARY 30th:



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USA BAY 02:55 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

China seems to be a major economic partner to Australia, and with the RBA probability of hiking in Febuary looks good as well with the commodity prices going up dont you think aud/usd going up to 90 cents and maybe even 94 cents looks very probable. TIA

Sydney ACC 02:50 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Syd 01:18 GMT January 30, 2008
Agree with you.
I don't know how much more upside the AUD has. In my mind though it's already looking heavy.
The forward premium has reverted to the expensive zone - 180+ pips for a six month forward. Without downside movement to compensate for the erosion of the forward margin it becomes expensive to hold a short position. History tells us though that when the AUD slides it does so fast as it did from the 93 cent highs in November.
The smart money will get out at the beginning of the move and will not be concerned about interest differentials at that time.
I can recall AUD and NZD interest differentials of between 2 and 3 pips a day not providing any protection against the slide.
Asia's consumption of raw materials will wane when US consumption declines. Also, we are not the only supplier.

USA Zeus 02:27 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:49 GMT January 30, 2008

Not sure how to interpret your endless, entertaining but substance lacking anti USA propaganda for any FX related purpose. Are your many loose comments suggesting a "SELL USD for all you've got"?

The tone of your message seems to suggest so based on the propaganda. However, it seems like you are not making any real trading decisions just peppering the forums with long winded anti USA messages from a hobbyist trader who occasionally dabbles while laboring the slopes of a coffee plantation in an a remote location with an unstable phone line.
Good luck in the FX casino. ;-))

Cheers!

Syd 02:03 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
More than 1m people could lose homes in credit crunch, warns City watchdog
More than one million families are in danger of losing their home over the next 18 months, Britain's financial regulator warned yesterday.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=511084&in_page_id=1770&ct=5

Syd 02:02 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Firm finds nearly 3.7m pay highest income tax
The number of people paying the highest level of income tax has almost doubled since Labour came to power, according to recent statistics.
LINK

quito_ecuador_valdez 02:00 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
CU GUYS tom. Placed another swissy short @ 1.0946, ultratight stop to protect pips so far @ 1.0943, tgt 1.0855...limit sells @ 1.0973, 1.0824 bracketing range. Will likely keep all this sittin' tight into Fed data tom. GT all in tomorrow's cyclone.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:49 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
BTW, important to world finance, China, USA & long range FX, if you haven't a handle on to the huge extent China has made inroads to Latin America, you'd better. Trade, basically displacing the USA in the same regarding mineral deals, trade deals, port management including Panama Canal, spy stations in Panama, Cuba & Carib, Hutchison, military & civilian "exchange" deals, technology & agriculture "exchange", relaxed aid/assistance w/ less strings attached than USA demands blabla, check this & this. What I hate to see however is Ecuador and other Latin countries' ratification of "one China" the way Beijing wants, screwing Taiwan (bad idea). Methinks this is "bought". China sees Latin America an easy target since most of the countries have corrupt easily "bought" or enticed governments, riches in mineral & natural resource & agricultural value & a waning view of USA south of the border. Target: Latin America.

Alaska Moon 01:42 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 01:37 GMT January 30, 2008
=======
Our cost of living here is high.....but you are correct, we are a tax free state. Every resident receives a permanent fund check each year from a fund that was established from oil revenue way back in the 60's.It was $1500.00 per person this year.....
I think we have 26 billion in the fund.....probably more now.....
Moon

USA BAY 01:37 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
ALASKA MOON,

Maybe time for me to move to Alaska. California, everything is too expensive and Alaska tax free state.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:22 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Tks for explaining that to all. Anyone who knows what a T bill is should realize how many billions in huge CBs are occupied by T bills. That's what Washington counts on...the world finances (and has to finance like it or not) Washinton's antics, no matter what Washington fincances -with- the proceeds from selling them. Wars, whatever. CBs are in too deep to quit. Black hole gravity. That's another way to explain it. But NOTHING is risk free. Nothing. Yes, the end of the civilized world is none-the-less possible. Not probable today this minute but...

~~~~~~~~~~~


As Sydney said & I've said for years, USA -has- to have a recession or recession-like economy eventually to begin to export, begin to handle the obscene trade deficit, tighten the belt and toughen up. If it doesn't it's going to continue to be the silicone love doll that Asia & rest of world wants it to be.

Syd 01:19 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:53 US should be giving out some tin hats

Syd 01:18 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 01:04 Hi , I see it decline towards the end of the year , by that time the RBA will be cutting rates , especially if they go again next week.. the economy here cant take high rates , not with the large amount of money people have in their mortgages and struggle to make ends meet now . Also China will be cooling as I said in an earlier post to ACC .
The specs will push the Aud giving some wonderful once in a lifetime levels to sell it and then nosedive to 75cent where it belongs. GT

USA Zeus 01:14 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:04 GMT January 30, 2008

Seriously? Are you familiar with CAPM and MPT?
In other words I'll simplify it for the average Joe- If the US 91 day T-Bills default the global economy no longer exists.

EVERYTHING fails BEFORE the 91 day T-Bill in the global economy. Thus, it is considered "risk free" because there is no monetary system anywhere without it.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:04 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 00:45 GMT January 30, 2008
Zeus, if you actually believe in "risk free environments" I have a friend who has some "ocean" property West of San Francisco she'd like to sell you sight unseen. C'mon, NOTHING is risk free, especially THAT.

isr jweb 01:04 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
syd. why do u see the aud declining if what you say that aud wont go thru recession..

Alaska Moon 01:03 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:53 GMT January 30, 2008
=======
No.....I am getting too old for all that gold mining !! LOL..
I sold my small dredge.and all the equiptment that could be hauled by aircraft several years ago.....
It's good to hear from you !!
Moon

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:53 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Syd, excellent! Moon, you ole pilot you, tks, you-all have more smarts than the average yaeh hoo in many states. And the gold too! Any "workin's" you been doin' lately out at the creek?

Sydney ACC 00:50 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
The USA has to have a recession. It is the tonic it needs to overcome years of over- indulgence on imports of Asian consumer goods and Middle-Eastern oil. A recession will direct what’s left of the US manufacturing industry to export while simultaneously drive down the demand for consumer goods thereby narrowing the trade deficit. With a new administration hopefully finally focusing on the budget deficit the reliance on foreign money will decline.
I still cannot subscribe that Australia will sail through a US recession because of the links with Asia and the emerging economies of China and India. While the bulk of our commodity exports are destined for Asia much of what is produced ends up in Western economies.
From my perspective Aussie has topped out now, each rally will become weaker and the trend overall now is down.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:49 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, I got a deal for you...for the benefit of all here, explain those things or enter Help Forum to enlighten those who don't. Many traders don't understand the basics of the finance world yet they place possies in hopes the roulette wheel lands on their number. I try to simplify things for those souls who haven't had time to savy finance but I can't write a book here. Do what you can, amigo. BTW my swissy shorts...one stopped out, I placed stop too close darnit...the other buy order hasn't taken yet as it was on the underside of the bracketed range I targeted. Oh well...minus one hamburger.

Alaska Moon 00:47 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
I guess that Alaskans must be a little more intelligent than people in some parts of the country .. LOL. I do not know one person who has an adjustable rate morgage. I called several real estate agencies here, they say that they do not offer ARM as Alaska Home buyers seem to know "a screwing when they see it !!"
I know there is really a lot of that kind of problems in other places, but not here....
Also, Our average home price is holding about the same for a couple of years, but 10 years ago, home prices were rising 10% per year....
Just a little local info.....
Moon

USA Zeus 00:45 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:22 GMT January 30, 2008

So if the whole house of card folds ans collapses and fails and......why are 91 day USA T-bills the only "risk free" investment?

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:44 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
Many spy satellites (many sats in general) use a uranium isotope thermocouple device to power them electrically. Some use solar panels but have Pt thermocouples as backup. I doubt if DoD would give plans for said orbiter in Popular Mechanics but it would be nice for northern Hemisphere folks to know what Chicken Little up at DoD is talking about. Uranium nor anything else "burns up" as it re-enters, it is oxidized or vaporized and in neither case do the radioactive atoms disappear or transform to harmless ash. That's highschool physics/chem 101 but many don't know it. So if it lands in your back yard don't fool with it.

USA Zeus 00:40 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 00:15 GMT January 30, 2008
Do you understand how caps, margins and resets work?

Syd 00:39 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
DJ Ultra-low interest rates not the medicine the ailing U.S. economy needs to get back on its feet, says PIMCO managing director Bill Gross. Notes 1% fed funds target helped create housing bubble; Fed chairman Bernanke "must recognize the reduced benefits and obvious dangers of a deja vu trek to 1% short rates," Gross says; "Those yields produced 5% 30-year mortgage rates to the homeowner for a two to three month period in 2003, and they could do so again, but bubble creating, inflation inducing damage to the U.S. dollar would be the likely result now." Best plan would be to stop far short of 1%, Gross says, at same time encourage reforms in Federal Housing Administration government assisted programs that would permit subsidized mortgage rates with minimal down payments.

Syd 00:25 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
WASHINGTON (AP)--The U.S. military is developing contingency plans to deal with the possibility that a large spy satellite expected to fall to Earth in late February or early March could hit North America.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:22 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
So the core issue isn't even so much Joe Public having to sustain a surprise tripple payment due to his floating interest rate loan being hiked all the time, it's the house of cards I call the entire financial industry in the USA. When there is little basis and foundation for the "whole", the "whole" then unsurprisingly collapses at the slightest ground level shimmey.

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:15 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
OK gents, back, mkt sleeping so time to spout off a bit about "core" issues.

I get the strong feeling the mkt is waiting for not only for small stuff like the Fed's cut tomorrow (waiting to see what's it gonna be, -.25, -.50 or even -.75) but other things as well and as a group of events, not one singled out one. They're waiting for US econ data in general & not flash in the pan stuff...the world is waiting basically to see what happens in the next months to the USA as a whole. Anyone expecting a big turn around because of Fed cuts or Bush's "good guy" tax rebates doesn't know beans about economy. It's like trying to down an elephant with a BB gun - these Fed cuts.

I put a quip on HELP FORUM about the real core credit crunch in USA recently... in brief, bottom level ("1st level") financial institutions dealing directly with Joe Public have used Joe Public's contracts as collateral for "2nd level" loans to then use to loan out again. Those collateral contracts are THEN used to obtain yet more funds for loaning to the 1st level institutions. The 2nd level goes and uses their contracts with 1st level outfits as collateral for yet more loan money and so on. It goes on and on through at least 4 or 5 levels and it's bascially a house of cards.

I personally talked on the phone today to a realtor in southern California USA about loan payment hikes due to added interest from 1st level loaning institutions (banks and Savings &Loan businesss). She herself now pays literaly atripple payment (as compared to the original payment) because of interest rate hikes on her "floating interest loan", even IN THE DECREASING FED INTEREST ENVIRONMENT. Read that again so you understand it. OK, that's what "floating interest rates" get you...screwed. Now, everyone thinks that the Fed interest rate cuts will help the economy & in some small bandaid way it possibly can short term but the core problem is NOT being addressed and can't be at all by Fed cuts. I promise. Fed cuts don't do a thing to floating interest loan contracts. Here's why.

The reason my realtor friend cited for the interest rate hikes is losses sustained from deadbeat defaulted payments that have to be made up SOMEHOW & that "somehow" is raising interest rates on existing floating interest loans. So the good guy who pays on time has to foot the bill via interest rate hikes form his loaner, paying ALSO for the late-pay or no-pay guy who doesn't make his payments. My friend's payments speak for themselves & she added THIS IS COMMON as dandruff in the financial storm that's brewing up there.

So no matter what the Fed does, even if it goes to 0% interest, it is NOT going to solve the core problem of over used and abused credit and pig attitudes of loaning institutions who use contracts as collateral for yet more funds to loan out. Defines well "house of cards".

When I was a kid no one took out loans to buy stupid stuff they don't need. Now days 25 year olds want to have everything their parents have saved for and finally bought over a lifetime (and not on credit either). They see, they want, they buy on credit. So they dive into the credit abyss & are literally owned by banks, charge card companies & loan sharks. Young America (age 21-40) is a bunch of spoiled brats who have no inkling of what it is to save money up, THEN buy something. That is one huge core problem in the USA. And one tiny glitch in the economy puts these "loaned to the eyeballs" guys in forclosure, reposession etc.. And no Fed cut can change it.

!~~~Chuck~~~!

Van jv 00:14 GMT January 30, 2008 Reply   
these charts are not positive for EUR ..comment ?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/jan252008.html

 




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