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Forex Forum Archive for 10/1/2008

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fll jf 23:41 GMT October 1, 2008
valdez
Reply   
to me its simple... a market indicates buyers and sellers ... what we have now is not a market for these products.

this package allows the market time to re-balance or wrk its way out and confidence to be restored. I dont see the problem with that.

Syd 23:36 GMT October 1, 2008
Expect EUR/USD To Be Sold Into Rallies - Westpac
Reply   

Expect EUR/USD to be sold into any rallies in Asian trade if Senate approves rescue package, Westpac currency strategist Jonathan Cavenagh says; risk appetite unlikely to lift pair significantly with global recession fears now looming larger. Notes markets focus shifting to increasing wobbles, failures in European financials, also growing fears European regulators will be unable to cobble together coordinated bailout given stark jurisdictional divisions in EU. Expects EUR/USD will test 1.35 near term

Quito Valdez 23:25 GMT October 1, 2008
constituents say no
Reply   
jf--->GVI
It's not surprising when the legislative bodies' constituents, both dem and repub, are some 96% opposed to paying for the bail plan. In a democracy isn't the constituency worth just a wee bit? Like it or not, US is supposed to have a democratic format. It's not Joe Street's fault pig bankers took risks from other pig bankers so Joe doesn't feel it's his place to foot the bill thru taxes when those taxes could go to Joe's education system, roads, social programs that benefit Joe personally. I'm not taking sides nor criticizing you personaly, but the above is being almost totally forgotten in the formula of speculating of whether the plan will fly or not. Yankess simply don't want to foot the bill for financial risk taking no more than your platform wants to foot the bill for our FX fkups.

Quito Valdez 23:19 GMT October 1, 2008
botch link
Reply   
I don't know what is the matter here, links are getting botched. link is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sin-eater

Gen dk 23:18 GMT October 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Quito Valdez 23:17 GMT October 1, 2008
Harvard U's approach to bail
Reply   
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/29/miron.bailout/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

Harvard U's senior lecturer contra bailout (what I now call a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sin-eater" target="_blank">"sin eating" Treas). Worth a read at least...he's a ton more qualified than most of us (me incl) to make judgements with no political brown nosing.

Syd 23:16 GMT October 1, 2008
Junker Dishes Junk
Reply   
The Eurogroup’s head Lux PM Junker is on the wires claiming that the European banking system is stronger than the US banking system therefore a US-style bail out is not needed. On the face of it, who can deny it, but on closer inspection, who can really concur ? Junker may be guilty of making a virtue out of a necessity. ECB President Trichet’s comments were more pointed. the euro-zone is too loose of a federation. By some measures, like equity to assets, some studies have found European banks are more leveraged than large US banks--meaning a small loss has larger impact.

Surely Junker got that invitation to go to a European meeting before the G7 meeting. Clearly the experience of Fortis and Dexia this week demonstrate that some nation’s may prove to small to tackle their own financial problems.

We suspect when the history of this crisis is written, as frustratingly slow as it may seem, it will likely be noted that the US has been more ahead of the game than officials have been in past crises. The US strategy is also evolving, with a number of government agencies now involved and accounting rules likely to be modified, the vast power of the US government is being brought to bear on the problem. In contrast Europe is still seems to be in denial of systemic risks and seems largely content to deal with events in a reactive way on a case-by-case basis. It is also becoming clearer that the proper level of operation is not the euro-zone. Despite the end of the Cold War, Europe is still divided. The EU is the key player than can coordinate activity among numerous stake holders.
BBH

US CH3 23:07 GMT October 1, 2008
Oh for an "Ignore" button
Reply   
Wouldn't it be wonderful, I'm sure some of you would prefer to ignore me and guess what?

I feel the SAME about you.

Syd 23:00 GMT October 1, 2008
DJ US Rep Frank:Sees Sen Measure Rankling Some Dems-Fox Business
Reply   
Failure of bank rescue package through U.S. Congress would point to further sharp falls in AUD/USD, nabCapital senior currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos says. However, passage of bill through Senate today and House possibly tomorrow will help "stabilize" AUD. Notes short-term "fair value" estimate has declined to 0.7540 from 0.7590, following further "dismal news on the global economy", which has knocked commodities prices down further. Also, risk appetite falls back down toward 5-year low struck Monday.


U.S. Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., said Wednesday that a provision in the Senate version of a bailout package could cost some moderate Democrat votes in the House, Fox Business reported. The Senate package includes tax extenders that aren't controversial, but the bill fails to indicate spending cuts elsewhere to compensate, Frank said. Fiscally conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats oppose the tax extenders without a "pay-as-you-go" provision, and that could eliminate some Democrat "yea" votes on the bailout in the House, he said. He added that any shares the government buys under the package would be non-voting shares and that he'd prefer clearer language about foreclosure avoidance.

Quito Valdez 22:46 GMT October 1, 2008
Fed likely cut rate next mtng
Reply   
Fed CUTTING rates next meeting in light of manufacturing cliff dive + other neg data. Question is if .25 or .50. Not that would move USD down much, ingterest rate is less important these days than safehousing but a cut is necessary. Support comes in light of huge unnatural USD supportive warps in demand caused by emergency demands of USD, put in the otherwise fairly predictable fundamentals. USD by all rights should be sinking but unnatural demands have kept it afloat.

The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence hence interest for USD in Europe and Yen in Asia. Au seems to be glistening, holding pretty steady in about an 8-10% range while cncy's fly about.

Let me share a bit about American politics. The "Bushites" are desciples only because the king was in power, the Repubs are now looking at who's the boss next..Obama or Mc. So don't expect them to follow the soon to be ex boss forever..many of them have already jumped ship I feel. Bottom line voters matter and he who goes with the votes wins next elections..meaning pizz off 96% the American public and you are labled a conspirator in cause by them. If anything I feel that more scrutiny will emerge in House than before ref. bail out approval so don't get your hopes up re above facts that the bill will just ease thru JUST BECAUSE it's perhaps watered down etc.. I can't imagine the hills of angry letters in House mail rooms from constituents.

Contrary to the idea of USD woes: also some European cncys should also be sinking especially it is thought (debatable however) if the bail out doesn't pass U.S. House Friday PM. If it doesn't dunno what they'll come up with, lately Fed + Treas have been skimping by (buying seconds of time) on swap limit increases and buying trash paper essentially, and patting buyouts through with helper funding/guarantees. Proposed raising of insurance limits to 1/4ml on deposit accounts is part of the bail plan.

As pointed out in one of Syd's posts, war is often the outcome of wrecked global finances. Perhaps countries' leaders can act like adults and offer mutual coordinated help instead of throwing things like children this time around..a first in the world's history if it does.

I'll have beans for sale or trade in about 4 months and coffee's always on. ;^{-)

Syd 22:45 GMT October 1, 2008
Yen Positive!!
Reply   
Japan's gov't to mull tax breaks in a move to increase the repatriation of profits; The ruling parties may extend the securities tax breaks - Nikkei

Syd 22:30 GMT October 1, 2008
Financial crisis:
Reply   
The tsunami will hit European banks harder
Continental European banks no longer seem immune. The tsunami which started in the US and rolled across the UK has broken over them with a thunderous roar.
Financial crisis
Dollar Direction
A combination of demand for U.S. dollars globally and pressure on European banks is weighing on the euro against the greenback. Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia talks currency positions with CNBC's Martin Soong and Amanda Drury.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=873791838&play=1

Quito Valdez 21:43 GMT October 1, 2008
bail out bill likely posponed from announced time
Reply   
Swiss Hank 20:08 GMT October 1, 2008 Thanks once again for the heads up. Interesting as a Swiss you don't have much faith in your system, tks for your unbiased candid view. BTW I live at 8,500 meters in the high Andes, not without saying no cockroaches here fortunately, another species abounds however. The animated
version if you please.

Syd tks for the informative posts.

Don't hold your breath for this bail out rat orgy bill to pass, bring your lunch , it may take a while. Then after don't be surprised at a much watered down version with long term meager results. It's highly unpopular in USA so this pseudo-democracy has to consider voters as a last resort (!!). I'm not taking sides on FF so no tennis please...just confounding the issue with fact.

Syd 21:38 GMT October 1, 2008
bailout
Reply   
Frank: Confirms Friday's House vote on the bailout plan; Not sure if there are enough votes for passage - CNBC- confirms additional regulation for financial markets will be considered next year.
House Majoirty Leader Hoyer: Disappointed Senate added tax credits to bailout; House needs 100 GOP votes to pass the rescue plan

Syd 21:36 GMT October 1, 2008
Panicking savers
Reply   
Panicking savers shift their money from Britain's high street banks in desperate bid to secure their cash
LILNK

Syd 20:52 GMT October 1, 2008
The beginning of the end game
Reply   
AIG case shows the importance of another link across financial
markets, namely massive regulatory arbitrage. The K-10 annex of AIG’s last annual report reveals that AIG had written coverage for over US$ 300 billion of credit insurance for European banks. The comment by AIG itself on these positions is: “…. for the purpose of providing them with regulatory capital relief rather than risk mitigation in exchange for a minimum guaranteed fee”. AIG thus helped to organise regulatory arbitrage on a gigantic scale. A formal default of AIG would have had a devastating impact on banks in Europe. This explains why AIG’s problems had sent shock waves through the share prices of European banks. For the time being the US Treasury has saved, inter alia, the European banking system, but given that AIG is to be liquidated European banks now have to scramble to find other ways of obtaining the ‘regulatory capital relief’ they appear to need urgently.
So far European banks have been spared the convulsions that are ravaging the US financial system. This is surprising because some of the major European banks have leverage ratios (often over 30, in some cases close to 50) that must, under current market conditions, be considered a disaster in waiting. The experience over the last year has shown that given the automatic feedback loops in a system of mark to market and ratings, any slight doubt about the solvency or liquidity situation of such highly leveraged institutions (see Figure 1) can lead to their demise in a matter of days. The European Central Bank and European regulators are living on borrowed time.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/10/01/16559/
aig-and-an-overlevered-europe/

Syd 20:21 GMT October 1, 2008
Europe Must Develop Common Approach To Crisis: Top Economists
Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--European governments must develop a coordinated response to the financial crisis or risk a repeat of the Great Depression, a group of leading economists said Wednesday.

Earlier, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barosso called on European governments to take joint action to protect the banking system, while the French government is attempting to organize a high-level meeting on the issue.

In an open letter to European leaders posted on the policy Web site of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, the group of leading economists said the financial crisis directly threatens "the savings of hundreds of millions of Europeans," while jobs and businesses could be "destroyed on a massive scale."

A number of European governments have this week stepped in to to support ailing banks this week, while the Irish government Tuesday announced it will guarantee all deposits held at, and the debts of, six of the country's largest banks.

The CEPR economists said those efforts are welcome but added that they failed to address the fact that European banks are interdependent, and that the actions of one government can have unintended consequences for others.

"It is critical that national authorities sit together and coordinate their responses, developing Europe-wide solutions where appropriate," the economists said.

The economists said the key problem Europe faces is high leverage among the internationally active large banks. It said the European Union, therefore, must focus on recapitalizing the banking sector, through the injection of public equity or through mandatory debt-to-equity conversions, possibly through the European Investment Bank.

"This has to be done at the E.U. level," the letter said. "The current approach of rescuing one institution after another with national funds will lead to a Balkanisation of the European banking sector. Agreeing to a harmonised level for deposit insurance would also be important."

The economists said the solution to the crisis in Europe is within the reach of governments.

"The problem is not a lack of understanding of how to stop financial crises," they said. "The problem is a lack of political will. Unless European leaders immediately unite to address this crisis before it spirals out of control, they may find themselves fighting over how best to salvage the aftermath."

The economists raised the specter of the Great Depression, which in Europe laid the ground for the rise of totalitarian governments, and ultimately the Second World War.

"Every European knows what happened when financial markets seized up in the dark years of the 1930s," they said. "It is not an exaggeration to say that it could happen again if governments fail to act."

http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1729

GVI Forex john 20:21 GMT October 1, 2008
Selected GVI Chart points
Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

20:19

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

10/01//08

1.4012

105.88

1.1254

1.7706

1.0608

High

1.4174

106.53

1.1292

1.7875

1.0660

Low

1.3976

105.34

1.1146

1.7635

1.0549

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.4242

105.65

1.1096

1.7948

1.0524

10 day

1.4449

105.79

1.0980

1.8219

1.0449

20 day

1.4307

106.23

1.1106

1.8004

1.0562

50 day

1.4725

107.88

1.0924

1.8538

1.0527

100 day

1.5199

106.98

1.0622

1.9153

1.0305

200 day

1.5198

105.93

1.0595

1.9461

1.0186

Syd 20:16 GMT October 1, 2008
bailout billBreaking Down The Reasons For Dollar Strength DJ
Reply   
House Majority Leader Hoyer (D): expect to consider the bailout bill in the House on Friday if the Senate vote gets majority bipartisan support tonight
- says at this hour, House Democrats have not changed balance for plan, and is unsure as far as any increase in support from republicans


RBA has executed its largest deal to purchase short-term residential mortgaged-backed securities as the securitisation market struggles for life.

Treasury's McCormick: G7 meeting in next week in Washington D.C. to focus on the financial turmoil - TV interview

U.S. fundamentals aren't looking all that great lately, which begs the question: Why is the dollar rallying? Jens Nordvig of Goldman answers. The dollar is supported against the euro in the medium-term because: (1) European data has been deteriorating, (2) a number of near-failures in major European financial institutions, (3) leading currency analysts to rethink their ECB policy outlook. Goldman Sachs now projects 75bp of cuts by mid-2009, with the first reduction in Dec. Lower ECB rates + euro zone recession = higher dollar demand. The dollar is also stronger right now because: (1)investors are adjusting hedges on the fall in U.S. asset prices, and (2) a major USD funding squeeze, which causes funding rates to spike

ECB In Denial, Undercutting Euro
Currency analysts are asking whether the ECB is trailing US monetary authorities, and taking too long to act. In an interview with France 2, ECB chief Trichet said the euro zone couldn't implement a U.S.-style bank bailout plan because the European Union is not a federation with a federal budget. Meanwhile, Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said Europe has no need for a bailout. "Europe still seems to be in denial of systemic risks and seems largely content to deal with events in a reactive way on a case-by-case basis. It is also becoming clearer that the proper level of operation is not the euro-zone. Despite the end of the Cold War, Europe is still divided. The EU is the key player than can coordinate activity among numerous stake holders," said Marc Chandler of BBH.


EUR/USD is declining again Wed morning, pushed by another drop in crude oil prices after the release of the latest DOE inventory data.
ECB chief Trichet summed up the market pattern supporting the dollar lately in a speech in Frankfurt Tue. "Financial institutions are becoming increasingly under pressure to clean their portfolios and to strengthen their capital base, reinforcing the rapid deleveraging process already underway," Trichet said.

LA BV 20:16 GMT October 1, 2008
eurusd equivalent
Reply   
Swiss Hank. What does that imply for eurusd? Based on eurchf 1.57 it equates to 1.33 (1.18) and 1.23 (1.27).

Swiss Hank 20:08 GMT October 1, 2008
The tale of the Cucaracha chf piggy that went to the market..
Reply   
Quito Valdez 17:40 GMT October 1, 2008
While you are speculating , those chf in cuckaracha land at 118 are looking better and better....if you wait for a euro bail out plan to help dont bother..any plan will take several months if any, and in sunch an instance those chf in cuckaracha land will be 127...so if you dont like 118 cuckaracha land soon you will hate cuckarachaland chf at 127 later on.........

Syd 19:40 GMT October 1, 2008
EU emergency fund
Reply   
Sources say France reportedly plans to propose an EU financial bailout plan worth up to €300B, wants EU governments to contribute 3% of GDP - unconfirmed report
- Note that earlier German press reports indicated that French Finance Minister Lagarde was seeking an EU emergency fund to help distressed banks.
French Finance Min Lagarde: No finished proposal has been put forward on EU financial rescue package, still gathering ideas for a plan, working with partners
German Finance Ministry: Germany completely disagrees with French proposals for a financial bailout plan

British Bankers Assoc. (BBA) confirms it is seeking talks with Irish banks over concerns that the Irish plan to grant 100% deposit protection would distort competition

LA BV 19:35 GMT October 1, 2008
Giving Up?
Reply   
Have you guys given up for the day? Tomorrow is the Trichet show.

Geneva 18:29 GMT October 1, 2008
Europe bailout
Reply   
First let's have a glace Of wine, then let's study it!

PAR 17:56 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout
Reply   
Do not underestimate Sarkozy . He is really fast, especially in divorce and marriage. Lol

Geneva 17:53 GMT October 1, 2008
Europe bailout
Reply   
Let's see how long it will take then the get aproval for such a plan? It will be ready when the banks will recover or alreasy collapse.

PAR 17:48 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout
Reply   
Comrades Sarkozys plan is better than the Bushevics plan because:

1 French state always takes equity in return for aide.

2 We let the Germans and the rest of Europe pay part of the bill.

Quito Valdez 17:40 GMT October 1, 2008
European bailouts
Reply   
About any French bailout proposal, or any other proposal by any of the EUR members to suckle ECB's funds, this is where a "single" cncy gets in lots of trouble. You can't fit all feet with one shoe and you can't shoe all those horses with X amount limited of horseshoes. Unless you fabricate horseshoes out of thin air. See where this leads? I sence a lot of screaming/conflicting EU members from almost all venues soon.

HK Kevin 17:38 GMT October 1, 2008
EUR
Reply   
NYC ET 17:29 GMT October 1, 2008
Kevin, what do you consider a tight stop in this market?
10 pips below the low of the previous bar. Hey, almost hit and I will watch at houlry close to decide for further actions

NYC 17:34 GMT October 1, 2008
French Plan
Reply   
LaGarde saying there is not a EUR300 bln rescue plan. She seemed to be avoiding placing a # but where there is smoke there is fire. Expect more rumors of as rescue plan and the week goes on. IMO

NYC ET 17:29 GMT October 1, 2008
Kevin, what do you consider a tight stop in this market?

Como Perrie 17:27 GMT October 1, 2008
Crisis
Reply   
Currently am reading reports about a likely passtrough by friday.

We are going to see in between..some several proposals are around one of the biggest is to change accounting rules..

GVI Forex john 17:23 GMT October 1, 2008
test

HK Kevin 17:21 GMT October 1, 2008
Euro
Reply   
I like Richland QC Mailman's long EUR position and follow him with loading some at 1.4043 a few minutes ago with tight stop.
Trailing stops of previous short USD/JPY and EUR/JPY got hit.
Kiwi is fascinate and may test 6820 tomorrow

Quito Valdez 17:18 GMT October 1, 2008
bailout passage
Reply   
Senate can pass it all it wants, bill has to pass House also. It might not. Please don't count on any passage until it passes. Hope is by definition fantasy. I can't imagine the euphoria buiilding up here even if it passes....it is not going to turn on a magic success valve. Anyone more than passively optimistic on the short run "benefits" isn't viewing long run woes down the road. I think some positive words are being injected by those who's books would benefit from it. Me, I'm 50-50 neutral on my books.

Global-view Careers 17:17 GMT October 1, 2008
Careers
Reply   
Need a change of scenery?

Jobs USA

Jobs UK

Jobs Canada

BEDFORD VT 17:16 GMT October 1, 2008
European Banks:
Reply   
PAR 16:57 GMT October 1, 2008

Rumors France proposes a € trillion rescue package for European banks . Comrades and Bushevics all over the world unite.


How would this impact on the €/$?

Reino do Dragão Cubriclas 17:08 GMT October 1, 2008
bailout
Reply   
PAR 16:45 GMT October 1, 2008
Dollar:
As senate passes bailout > big rally in stock market> lower dollar.

I agree! ;)

PAR 17:07 GMT October 1, 2008
Taxes
Reply   
Amid all of the financial and economic uncertainty in the world today, there is one sure thing: Your taxes are going to go up.

You can take that to the bank.

Even before the kabillion-dollar bailout proposed by Washington, the Federal government was spending $400 billion more every year than it was taking in.
Casey Serin
Taxes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Figure in aging baby boomers signing up for Social Security -- and a few years after that, Medicare -- and there's no way to start closing that chasm other than by raising taxes.

Even George H.W. "Read My Lips" Bush saw that writing on the wall and raised taxes during his presidency.

"Congress will raise taxes regardless of who wins the presidential election," said Janine Racanelli, of J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

The good news about all the bad news

Mtl JP 17:07 GMT October 1, 2008
European Banks
Reply   
PAR 16:57 - go for it boys n gals.. fold the market. what are they trying to rescue excatly? the mortar is still there. just change the ownership of the property turn the whole things in gulags, put iron curtains everywhere and sell arms to dictators.

seems a bit ephemeral to pump non-existent money into a system that can't use it as it will contribute 0.

madrid 17:06 GMT October 1, 2008
Bushevics ....
Reply   
.... ????

That s a good one !!

Bushevics
Junkervics
Sarkozyvics
Chavezvics

8-)

utube oil cartel!

Como Perrie 16:59 GMT October 1, 2008
Crisis
Reply   
Some say the deal might not go trough, at least not for some days... some problems behind very huge

PAR 16:57 GMT October 1, 2008
European Banks
Reply   
Rumors France proposes a € trillion rescue package for European banks . Comrades and Bushevics all over the world unite.

PAR 16:45 GMT October 1, 2008
Dollar
Reply   
As senate passes bailout > big rally in stock market> lower dollar. Good Us car industry already got their $ 25 bailout present as september sales look dramatic.

Quito Valdez 16:41 GMT October 1, 2008
logic, no, flow yes
Reply   
FW CS 16:19 GMT October 1, 2008
The reason USD is strong this week is because of the selloff of stocks and hedges, that requires huge demands on USD..sell stock get dollars, quite simple. Get loans on hedges, IN DOLLARS... which is reason #2 for seemingly illogical USD demand. This is not at all fundamentally nor tech driven, it is simply flows from selling off (and still selling) over a trillion bucks worth of stock in a short time. This isn't my opinion, it is simple fact.

Gen dk 16:25 GMT October 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 16:23 GMT October 1, 2008
Dollar
Reply   
The Bushevics are not interested in the dollar or the economy, they are only looking at the Us stock market . Thats were the lobbyists with the money are .

FW CS 16:19 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout approval
Reply   
Question:
If the bailout rejection was seen as USD positive would a ratification be seen as USD negative? Conventional wisdom would say yes. If we filter out the noise (and there is a lot of it these days) and look at a Euro weekly the quick spike from 1.38-1.48 and quick selloff from 1.48-1.3980 is a characteristic bottoming action - just looking at charts. But in this environment sometime you can throw charts out as the financial system has not seen this much stress in 30 years at least

PAR 16:17 GMT October 1, 2008
FDIC
Reply   
How needs bigger FDIC insurance except senators and congressmen ? Strange to tamper with the FDIC which is the only government agency that really did a good job in this crisis;

Quito Valdez 16:04 GMT October 1, 2008
bailout will not going to switch on a light
Reply   
"VERY DEEP RECESSION" The rescue package ``is not going to switch on a light, so to speak,'' said Francis Mustaro, who heads a group managing about $500 million at J&W Seligman & Co. in New York. ``I see more layoffs coming, and I see more business failures. You have to start thinking about Treasuries as a core holding going forward for the next year or so.''
There you have it. Methinks said bailout will be done with a teaspoon trying to bail bildge out of a ship shot full of holes. That means buy yet more and more USD, right?

BEDFORD VT 15:56 GMT October 1, 2008
double bottom
Reply   
Hi Mailman

I think we may well have had a bit of a confirmation going on here!
Also, am I right in saying that if the MACD on the 1hr chart crosses over, there's another strong +divergence in play?

Regards, VT

Richland QC Mailman 15:49 GMT October 1, 2008
VT query
Reply   
Hi VT. looking at my own 15", yup there is a positive divergence seen earlier even before euro took off. It has softly pierced through 4050. We need more a convincing break from there to make longs really safe.

Quito Valdez 15:48 GMT October 1, 2008
vote pushed to 8-9 PM Eastern timezone
Reply   
vote been pushed later..between 8 and 9 Eastern Time zone
Don't look for a sooner, look for a later on this one...too much at stake, too heated a debate. Is fillibuster allowed in this or not?
bloomberg.com : "Treasuries Rise on Speculation U.S. Faces Recession Even With Bank Rescue"

Those in the know realize 700bn is NOT a solution. Not even a quick solution. This whole thing is a big putoff of the inevitable and a fakeout for the Bush administration to make angry citizens + foreigners 'THINK' they're doing all they can. Oly a fool would believe it.

BEDFORD VT 15:46 GMT October 1, 2008
upload
Reply   
Thanks JP

Done that, its a gif file so it should be ok.

GVI Forex john 15:46 GMT October 1, 2008
Chart Question
Reply   
Bedford- Is your chart in "gif", "jpg" or "png" format? one or the other extension must be at the end of your filename. If you keep having problems, email me [email protected]

Mtl JP 15:43 GMT October 1, 2008
Upload
Reply   
Bedford / last: check file allowed Type: jpg, gif or png

BEDFORD VT 15:40 GMT October 1, 2008
chart uploading
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Jay, can you help me please...........I'm trying to upload a chart that I've saved from MetaTrader 4, its under 200kb and less than 600 pixels high, so what am I doing wrong?

Thanks in advance

Vienna Kerry 15:39 GMT October 1, 2008
Wish happy shorting party,
Reply   
and the party is just beginning in EURUSD short

BEDFORD VT 15:38 GMT October 1, 2008
15min eur/usd
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oh, no chart.................its only 45kb, so why won't it upload?

BEDFORD VT 15:37 GMT October 1, 2008
Eur/usd - Double bottom
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Richland QC Mailman

Mailman, by your posts, I believe you're a technical trader, so would you have a look at the attached chart (only the 15min for now) and let me know if you agree with the double bottom.

Also, would you say that there is a 'positive divergence', perhaps adding strength to the double bottom?

Whats your thoughts? (or anyone)

Richland QC Mailman 15:29 GMT October 1, 2008
senate vote
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Thanks JP for the schedule. We will have 7 hours of waiting time. Enought time to take a nap.

Mtl JP 15:27 GMT October 1, 2008
FOREING EXCHANGE
Reply   
CHENNAI KRISHNA 15:16
in alphabetical order:
fear
fraud
greed
lies
threats
treachery
treason

Richland QC Mailman 15:19 GMT October 1, 2008
Not Yet off the Hook
Reply   
euro - though rebounding from 3975, this one is not definitely off the hook yet. It has to smash the 4050 to ease the pressure on the downside. Hmmm, this day could very well be a reversal day too - with the bail-out outcome being the main catalyst.

CHENNAI KRISHNA 15:16 GMT October 1, 2008
FOREING EXCHANGE
Reply   
PLS TELL US FIVE NEW PRODUCTS IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRIVING THE MARKET .

PAR 15:14 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout
Reply   
Why dont Us senators dont listen to Us economists but only to Wall Street ?

We could do more with less money. The holes in financial institutions' balance sheets should be filled in a transparent way. The Scandinavian countries showed the way two decades ago. Warren Buffet showed another way, in providing equity to Goldman Sachs. By issuing preferred shares with warrants (options), one reduces the public's downside risk and ensures that they participate in some of the upside potential.

This approach is not only proven, but it also provides both the incentives and wherewithal needed for lending to resume. It avoids the hopeless task of trying to value millions of complex mortgages and the even more complex financial products in which they are embedded, and it deals with the "lemons" problem – the government gets stuck with the worst or most overpriced assets. Finally, it can be done far more quickly.

At the same time, several steps can be taken to reduce foreclosures. First, housing can be made more affordable for poor and middle-income Americans by converting the mortgage deduction into a cashable tax credit. The government effectively pays 50% of the mortgage interest and real estate taxes for upper-income Americans, yet does nothing for the poor. Second, bankruptcy reform is needed to allow homeowners to write down the value of their homes and stay in their houses. Third, government could assume part of a mortgage, taking advantage of its lower borrowing costs.

By contrast, US treasury secretary Henry Paulson's approach is another example of the kind of shell games that got America into its mess. Investment banks and credit rating agencies believed in financial alchemy – the notion that significant value could be created by slicing and dicing securities. The new view is that real value can be created by un-slicing and un-dicing – pulling these assets out of the financial system and turning them over to the government. But that requires overpaying for the assets, benefiting only the banks.

In the end, there is a high likelihood that if such a plan is ultimately adopted, American taxpayers will be left on the hook. In environmental economics, there is a basic principle, called "the polluter pays principle." It is a matter of both equity and efficiency. Wall Street has polluted the economy with toxic mortgages. It should pay for the cleanup.

There is a growing consensus among economists that any bail-out based on Paulson's plan won't work. If so, the huge increase in the national debt and the realisation that even $700bn is not enough to rescue the US economy will erode confidence further and aggravate its weakness.

But it is impossible for politicians to do nothing in such a crisis. So we may have to pray that an agreement crafted with the toxic mix of special interests, misguided economics, and right-wing ideologies that produced the crisis can somehow produce a rescue plan that works – or whose failure doesn't do too much damage.

Getting things right – including a new regulatory system that reduces the likelihood that such a crisis will recur – is one of the many tasks to be left to the next administration.

In cooperation with Project Syndicate, 2008.

Richland QC Mailman 15:12 GMT October 1, 2008
Euro bears Getting Nervous?
Reply   
NYAM - yup, it is the majority excited to break the bottom that are turning this market opposite way.

Richland QC Mailman 15:07 GMT October 1, 2008
Long euro, 2x bottom confirmed
Reply   
I am in euro 4003.

Quito Valdez 15:03 GMT October 1, 2008
bailout
Reply   
There is no guarantee that the new bailout (prefer to call rescue plan) will be passed today. Or even this week. If it is carefully mull over the details, it has to be much watered down or many Democrats and most of the Republicans won't go it (96% of their constituents both Dem and Rep hate the idea, will respond fiercely adding to neg feelings nationwide contra banks-government if the plan flies, may involve massive deposit withdrawal in reprisal..Americans are like that..they fight with anything they can.).

London NYAM 15:01 GMT October 1, 2008
EURUSD
Reply   
Mailman// Just a thought with only about 100 pips to go to break a massively watched trend line i cant help but think some lines were meant to be crossed (just think of the tension and the stops...). Off for now: GLGT

Quito Valdez 14:59 GMT October 1, 2008
US mfg data horrible
Reply   
For USD bulls, I'd read front page headlines on bloomberg.com website before you get too much USD in your pocket. These forced demands for USD are not market talking nor fundamentals nor even techs...they are 100% emergency or end of month actions that end up needing USD cash to resolve themselves. This USD surge is a flash in the pan and I would consider on a very swift fall at some point once thiese supporting elements fade away.
As we feared corporations are the next in line for failures after finance sector was punished (and still being punished)
U.S. Ford Motor Co. & GM in dire straights, their finance sectors a mess.
From bloomberg.com's front page today:
•Manufacturing in U.S.Falls (contracts) at Faster Pace Than Economists Estimated
•U.S. Stocks Drop After GE Estimates Cut; Ford Slumps on European Forecast
•Cash-Starved Corporations Scrap Dividends, Tap Credit Lines to Raise Funds (investors/funds who once enjoyed dividend income will be sadly disappointed, contributes to loss of income for/including over 60yr. retired's & income funds.)
•Lehman's Hedge-Fund Clients Left in cold as Prime-Brokerage Assets FROZEN
THERE IS NO BAILOUT OF $700BN OR EVEN TWICE THAT THAT WILL CURE ALL THIS, ESPECIALLY IN A LOUSEY 6 MONTH TIME.

Richland QC Mailman 14:59 GMT October 1, 2008
euro double bottom?
Reply   
euro - potential double bottom in sight on the hourly chart. And with cable moving higher, there could be a semblance of reversal in process imo.

Mtl JP 14:57 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout
Reply   
courtesy gvi:
Spotforex NY 13:09 GMT October 1, 2008
Senate Vote:
Hearing voted scheduled for 7pm ET (0:00 GMT)

-
for access contact [email protected]

HK Kevin 14:44 GMT October 1, 2008
Kiwi
Reply   
HK Kevin 14:13 GMT October 1, 2008
Closed another half short Kiwi here at 6725.
Cable may have find a intraday bottom at 1.7633 an move within a 50 pips range for rest of the day.

Richland QC Mailman 14:43 GMT October 1, 2008
Waiting for the Bail out Judgement
Reply   
How much time or how many hours are we waiting before the powerful US Senate bangs the gavel to decide on the rehashed bail-out package? thanks folks

US PROPANE 14:38 GMT October 1, 2008
BEDFORD VT
Reply   
if you have institutional swaps, I may be able to give you a good hedge of yeilders that will generally give you daily income...get my address from Jay

Quito Valdez 14:18 GMT October 1, 2008
correction
Reply   
Sorry, EUR/USD short was to read put EUR/USD long...was thinking of our USD/JPY short...haven't had coffee yet..neurons not awake.

Quito Valdez 14:14 GMT October 1, 2008
same as yest, outside flow, not fundamentals nor tech
Reply   
Note gold not far from opening price Monday vs USD...it's the major cncy's that are eating dust. Just got online, USD/JPY short lookin' good, yen eating USD, yen rules, obeying daily res. line, my EUR/USD long s topped @ B.E. Last night late had to wake up, answer an extremely late phone call - another time zone, afterwards to see how things were doing, put EUR/USD short - in my opinion was the exact opposite of logic, but hey, since the mkt is moving nutzo north damed if it didn't make me 97 pips. These days you just do the opposite of what the market is supposed to do to make money...pretty easy. If I use tightly stopped positions I can't lose much but can gain lots. Today, like yesterday, has nothing to do with technicals or even fundamentals, it is merely the "flow" of the day which consists of hasty huge (many yards) selloffs of EUR/USD, USD buys, still end of month moves, all of which are not normal in less troubled times. I have half my cash in USD anyway so I can't lose..keep hittin' those poor USD gobbling saps Mr. USD! Then reverse when it's time and we'll ride with you again.

HK Kevin 14:13 GMT October 1, 2008
Kiwi
Reply   
Closed half of my Kiwi from 0.6760 at 6714. Aussie and Kiwi need to break 7870 and 6700 for further downside.
Keep the short USD/JPY and EUR/JPY

US PROPANE 14:09 GMT October 1, 2008
EUR/CHF
Reply   
currently weighing on the Swissy...

US PROPANE 14:05 GMT October 1, 2008
BEDFORD VT 13:48 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
I more of a fundimental trader than TA....I spend most of my time following the Spider Options..and the Finacacial Spreads..Unforently Im not the best Technical Trader..Guys Like HK Kevin and Maribor are Great Mentor...GL

Stopped out of the E$, but re enterd...could not help myself..the fundimental are pointing down..

BEDFORD VT 14:04 GMT October 1, 2008
E$
Reply   
Propane, ain't it strange, but, I've got a feeling the E$ is heading back up to c1.4345 mark? By Friday? Maybe?
Dunno, we'll see..................I'd love to see a post say......
Good call VT!! Lol
Regards

van jv 14:03 GMT October 1, 2008
ISM
Reply   
ISM 43.5

US PROPANE 14:01 GMT October 1, 2008
E$
Reply   
DAMM., hopefully will get in higher now....

NYC ET 13:53 GMT October 1, 2008
eurusd
All sorts of rumors today. One has been that Russia has been a big eurusd seller. The other is that a hedge fund (Sigma) is liquidating a huge amount. Fund liquidations make sense if there were redemptions at quarter end. Market is trading like there are liquidating positions.

Richland QC Mailman 13:51 GMT October 1, 2008
euro fresh buying
Reply   
euro - fresh buying when 4000 is retaken by the bulls. hmmm, let us see if we can do some longs here during pull back.

BEDFORD VT 13:48 GMT October 1, 2008
Propane
Reply   
Propane, would you mind if I asked Jay to forward your email address onto me as I'm looking for a mentor and would like to perhaps share some ideas with you if thats ok with you?

Many thanks in advance.

VT

US PROPANE 13:43 GMT October 1, 2008
BEDFORD VT 13:38 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
all is good my friend..GL to you as Well

PS...good call on the EuroYen HK

Prague JIT 13:42 GMT October 1, 2008
Tallin, it could be true, the same cb was very active buyer in eur/usd all year. I thing they sold the eur back to get usd to rescue problems at their market. It has started already in Summer at the time of war with Georgia and could be one of the reasons why has the dollar unexpectly appriciated. How do you do, friend?

HK Kevin 13:41 GMT October 1, 2008
EUR/JPY
Reply   
The measured target for this new around of downwave is at 143.80. Enjoy the ride if you are short the pair

BEDFORD VT 13:38 GMT October 1, 2008
The puppy
Reply   
Propane, yep, I'm long, I might be completely wrong as I'm not a seasoned trader like you my friend, but I'm new at this and the eur/usd may well have had a bounce off the weekly S3. If I'm wrong............then, oh well, I've tried!
Keep up your excellent calls Propane, much appreciated.
GT

US PROPANE 13:37 GMT October 1, 2008
HK Kevin 13:35 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
THX/GL TO U....alway enjoy your post...one of the better traders here...keep it upp!!!

HK Kevin 13:35 GMT October 1, 2008
Kiwi
Reply   
US PROPANE 13:33 GMT October 1, 2008
Thank you. With AUD/NZD approaching support level 1.1690. May be the fall of Kwiw is just a matter of time.
I entered short position earlier at 0.6760.

US PROPANE 13:34 GMT October 1, 2008
BEDFORD VT 13:32 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
u LONG/please share...instead of trying to get a rise..LOL..put you money were your mouth is...My profits are locked in ...are yours

US PROPANE 13:33 GMT October 1, 2008
KIWI
Reply   
just jumped into a short postion 6730 sl 6788 tp 6560

BEDFORD VT 13:32 GMT October 1, 2008
Puppy's gonna hit!
Reply   
Propane, the puppy's gonna hit! Lol

US PROPANE 13:29 GMT October 1, 2008
EURO
Reply   
LOWER sl again...making this puppy tight...now 14033/god I hope it doesn't hit!

US PROPANE 13:26 GMT October 1, 2008
HK Kevin 13:22 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
I believe that the KEIWI is somewhat connected to the US Market here...with Congress Speculation/I believe it the DJIA or SPY and Q's don't hold upp here..the KEIWI will soon Break down and possible see 6550- if the US market do so show some conviction...IMO

HK Kevin 13:22 GMT October 1, 2008
Kiwi
Reply   
US PROPANE 13:02 GMT, any ideas why Kiwi is still holding Asian's low

US PROPANE 13:16 GMT October 1, 2008
SWISSY
Reply   
HEADED TO 115oo with little resistance.../thats the word on the street/forums....

Richland QC Mailman 13:11 GMT October 1, 2008
Approaching key support levels
Reply   
Hi Folks, euro is approaching the 1.3900-880 daily chart support while gbp is just barely 200 pips away from 1.7500. Let us all be discreet in selling/shorting entries - a friendly reminder.

Tallinn viies 13:06 GMT October 1, 2008
eurusd
Reply   
EURO-DOLLAR: Background chatter from numerous directions estimates
eastern European name may have sold as much as 5 yards euros. Some
traders question size however, unsure that the market could have
absorbed that amount within the range seen.

Provided by: Market News International

US PROPANE 13:06 GMT October 1, 2008
LOCKING IN EURO PROFITS
Reply   
Lowered MY SL to 14077

US PROPANE 13:03 GMT October 1, 2008
BEDFORD VT 12:42 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
1.3601/ though knowing me I will probably settle for 13750/GL to U

US PROPANE 13:02 GMT October 1, 2008
Just Squarred upp my KEIWI HEDGE
Reply   
for a total of 280 PIPS....May reverse the strat if the NZDCHF gos higher....

US PROPANE 13:00 GMT October 1, 2008
I bought EURCAD and AUDNZD
Reply   
check out this trade...seem like it a good hedge..I decided to leg into this and will add...and liquidate if I can gain a couple bones...GL

Bilad KaL 12:51 GMT October 1, 2008
Levels
Reply   
My Levels for today
I bought EURCAD and AUDNZD

Pair HighLevel LowLevel
EUR/USD 1.5884 1.3561
USD/JPY 116.6848 101.4895
GBP/USD 1.9737 1.6829
USD/CHF 1.1852 1.0124
EUR/CHF 1.6671 1.5463
AUD/USD 0.9430 0.7454
USD/CAD 1.1210 1.0067
NZD/USD 0.7231 0.5982
EUR/GBP 0.8282 0.7735
EUR/JPY 174.2208 144.1849
GBP/JPY 221.4203 181.6949
CHF/JPY 106.1229 92.7112
GBP/CHF 2.1240 1.9110
EUR/AUD 1.9094 1.5798
EUR/CAD 1.6426 1.4853
AUD/CAD 0.9645 0.8137
AUD/JPY 107.3659 76.6599
CAD/JPY 112.0698 92.7419
NZD/JPY 82.5433 61.5657
GBP/AUD 2.3961 1.9851
AUD/NZD 1.3523 1.1774
AUD/CHF 1.0389 0.8213
EUR/NZD 2.3639 2.0387
GBPCAD 2.0570 1.8428
GBPNZD 2.9817 2.5697
USDSGD 1.4732 1.3556
USDHKD 7.8397 7.7384

US PROPANE 12:50 GMT October 1, 2008
EURO
Reply   
The [EUROZONE UNEMPLOY RATE] for Aug rose to 7.5%, from a revised 7.4% in Jul (prev 7.3%), above consensus ests (7.3%). Within the Eurozone, unemploy rates ranged from 2.6% in the Netherlands to 11.3% in Spain, with France and Germany at 8.0% and 7.2% resp. The unemploy rates in Spain and France have been rising in recent months, while the German rate has continued to edge lower. The Aug data suggest that weaker growth in many EMU economies is starting to filter through to the labour market. 09:00 GMT - [FOCUS COMMENT: SHAKEN AND STIRRED] as FX mkts are battered and mutli-year/record daily FX swings in very illiquid mkts - Eur-Usd saw the biggest one-day move late Ldn afternoon since the currency was established, while Cable has not been so battered since the Sep 1992 ERM I crisis.

US PROPANE 12:45 GMT October 1, 2008
EUR/NZD
Reply   
Is I said yesterday ....Long would be in a world of hurt or liquidated or stop out....I still don't see any support here...Maybe in the 20600 area..GL

GVI Forex john 12:42 GMT October 1, 2008
CHART: Bank of Japan Quarterly Tankan Survey
Reply   


RELEASED EARLIER: Survey suggests Japan is well into a recession...

BEDFORD VT 12:42 GMT October 1, 2008
eurusd
Reply   
Whats your target Propane?

US PROPANE 12:41 GMT October 1, 2008
Current Hedge strat since 9/29
Reply   
overwieght long nzd/chf and short nzd/usd 2/1 ratio...working well...tooks some profits on the KEIWI SWISS

US PROPANE 12:38 GMT October 1, 2008
BEDFORD VT 12:34 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
BEDFORD VT 12:34 GMT October 1, 2008



I have a Current Bid @ 136.01 / that my take/short since 1.4125 last night..sl 144oo small postion

GVI Forex john 12:37 GMT October 1, 2008
CHART: Swiss Mfg PMI
Reply   


Earlier - grim picture

GVI Forex john 12:36 GMT October 1, 2008
CHART: U.K. mfg PMI
Reply   


Earlier - grim picture

Mtl JP 12:35 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout
Reply   
Draft of what they call ‘‘Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008’’.

http://banking.senate.gov/public/_files/AYO08C04_xml2.pdf

nasty as nasty gets:

Section 102 establishes a program to guarantee troubled assets originated or issued prior to March 14, 2008, including such mortgage-backed securities..

Section 103 establishes Paulson as King Henry who alone decides who gets to live and who to die.

Section 104 makes Paulson responsible to... King Henry

Section 105 gives the right to Congress to... be informed.

Section 106 creates more questions than it answers.

Section 107 puts King Henry in charge of determing what is "public interest" and allows him to waive Federal regulations as he sees fit.

SEC. 108. CONFLICTS OF INTEREST.- The Secretary shall
issue regulations or guidelines necessary to address and manage or to prohibit conflicts of interest that may arise....

SEC. 112. COORDINATION WITH FOREIGN AUTHORITIES AND CENTRAL BANKS.
The Secretary shall coordinate, as appropriate, with foreign financial authorities and central banks... this thing is going international. Qtn now is who is and will be dictating to whom.

Section 113 gives the gov't only non-voting warrants (rather than voting shares), leaving the question of how gov't s interest will be protected well... in question.

Unless one considers that King Henry has now at his disposal the power of gov't, Judiciary and the military to try to prevail.

The business of demanding and receiving faith and trust in the creditworthiness of the FED's fiat system has just gotten a little bit more serious.

GVI Forex john 12:35 GMT October 1, 2008
E-Z final PMI
Reply   


Earlier - grim picture

BEDFORD VT 12:34 GMT October 1, 2008
eurusd
Reply   
Anyone buying euro/usd?

Have we hit the dubble bottom as Richland Mailman mentioned earlier on?

gt

PAR 12:25 GMT October 1, 2008
ADP
Reply   
ADP employment down only 8000. No job losses in Wall Street . Much stronger economy than comrades and Bushevics, Bernanke, Paulson and Bush wants us to believe . Three weeks ago Paulson would be on television saying the Us economy is very strong and resilient .

Bilad KaL 12:15 GMT October 1, 2008
Baile Out for Traders
Reply   
They should give me some of da money too

Banks Invest...they loss they get paid
What about AVG Joe Trader?

US PROPANE 12:14 GMT October 1, 2008
JOBS DATA (IMPORTANT FOR EURO?)
Reply   
Me think the direction of the Euro will be range bound till the Jobs report...as Congress I think its more of a neutral stance on the dollar, because the Bill is negative for the dollar near term, but positive for the Markets...so the Jobs Report is the Real Deal..GL

Paris 12:09 GMT October 1, 2008
EURO
Reply   
Euro took a hit after France indicated it had no plans to guarantee bank deposits like Ireland has done.

GVI Forex john 12:02 GMT October 1, 2008
Selected GVI Chart points
Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

11:59

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

09/30//08

1.4074

106.25

1.1221

1.7804

1.0591

High

1.4174

106.53

1.1227

1.7875

1.0660

Low

1.4069

105.70

1.1146

1.7772

1.0549

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.4367

105.83

1.1023

1.8093

1.0466

10 day

1.4479

105.81

1.0961

1.8267

1.0452

20 day

1.4323

106.32

1.1098

1.8007

1.0564

50 day

1.4758

107.92

1.0906

1.8582

1.0517

100 day

1.5214

106.98

1.0615

1.9170

1.0299

200 day

1.5200

105.97

1.0596

1.9472

1.0182

Singapore Merlion 11:57 GMT October 1, 2008
Greetings
Reply   
yeah...tis is one of the best and most professional forum i have come across.

lots of great minds and sharing

keep up the good work. am still new, just abt 2-3 mths old. still learning alot and digesting. seen some improvement in my analysis and trades

thanks a million to all and good trades and wish everyone reap bountiful profits.

BEDFORD VT 11:48 GMT October 1, 2008
Senate Vote:
Reply   
BEDFORD VT 09:27 GMT October 1, 2008
Senate Vote:

Does anyone have a view on how the Senate Vote will impact on the $ ?.

==============================================

Anyone?

PAR 11:42 GMT October 1, 2008
Congress
Reply   
On CNBC . Opposite of progress is ... CONGRESS . Lol.

US PROPANE 11:39 GMT October 1, 2008
Dubai 11:36 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
Relax...don't post you profits..1k in a couple weeks is chump change for most here...as far a people not liking ya here.,forget about it...just sit back and learn...GL

Dubai 11:36 GMT October 1, 2008
Some members don't like me
Reply   
It seems that some members already don't like me. Therefore, I allow the moderator of the room to ask me to leave. Best Regards to everyone

zaffrono

PAR 11:33 GMT October 1, 2008
Challenger
Reply   
No job cuts on Wall Street yet. Why should they cut with a $1 trillion check in the mail . Lol.

PAR 11:29 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout
Reply   
Bailout Would Only Prolong Crisis: Jim Rogers
Topics:Credit - Interest Rates - Federal Reserve - Henry Paulson - Ben Bernanke - European Central Bank - Central Banks - Wall Street - Politics & Government - Congress - Russia - France - Germany - Britain - The Netherlands - Italy - Spain - Banking
Sectors:Banks - Financial ServicesBy CNBC.com - 01 Oct 2008 - 06:08 AM ET Text Size

The $700 billion bailout package that Congress is scrambling to pass will only prolong economic woes, legendary investor Jim Rogers, CEO of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC on Wednesday.



"History shows these plans don't work. What does work is to let the market clean itself out," Rogers told "Worldwide Exchange".

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, like his predecessor Alan Greenspan and together with Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have been intervening in the markets and preventing them from acting naturally, he added.

"Capitalism is where the market does its work. These guys, for the last 8 to10 years, have refused to let the market

Sandton RSA 11:29 GMT October 1, 2008
Dubai
Reply   
Dubai 11:17 GMT October 1, 2008

Bibi, we miss you already. LOL.

Competition for Mr Purk. Just when you think you have the ultimate system, you find somerone else has done it before. Pips is where they have ever been, trust me.

madrid 11:25 GMT October 1, 2008
Buy Tiger, sell Dolphins on new sports stock market
Reply   
Buy Tiger, sell Dolphins on new sports stock market

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Michael Sroka dreamed up a day-trading website for sports fans while still in high school, and the concept will finally come to fruition with the launch of OneSeason.com.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE49011A20081001?sp=true

hedging is allowed ?!?!? !

8-)

Dubai 11:17 GMT October 1, 2008
Sorry, I am not allowed to give you the link or website

Dubai 11:12 GMT October 1, 2008
Ok. Sorry
Reply   
Sorry about that

Global-View 11:10 GMT October 1, 2008
EMAIL Addresses
Reply   
Dubai - thanks for asking but answer is no email addresses permitted.

Dubai 11:10 GMT October 1, 2008
My last 2 trades yesterday
Reply   
USDCHF Sell at 1.1205, close at 1.1194, profit=98.27 2008/10/01 00:01
EURUSD Buy at 1.4096 close at 1.4110, profit=140.00 2008/09/30 23:01

Dubai 10:58 GMT October 1, 2008
I am using Metatrader
Reply   
I am very happy working with expert traders here. For your information, I am trading using Metatrader. It trades for me and I send the signals for free to people. I am only using 1 lot, no stop loss. However. I use 5 pip trailing stop and 20 pip TP.

Bedford VT 10:56 GMT October 1, 2008
All winners? How?
Reply   
Dubai

I'm really pleased to read about your trading activity...........
All winners and no losers?
No stop loss?

Ok, are you willing to share your trading technique / method?

I for one would more than welcome your strategy.............

Lets have a look at what you do then please............

Dubai 10:52 GMT October 1, 2008
Excellent, but, I am using 1 lot only
Reply   
By the way, I never lose any trade. All of my trades are winers. I don't use any stop loss either

Bru Yein 10:51 GMT October 1, 2008
Dubai 10:47 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
Lolz
Dubai to gain respect here you must tell what are your trades and how you played it. A lot of trader here can gain thousands of pips without telling the amount of money they got for instance our respected fm nyam n zeus and couples other people

US PROPANE 10:50 GMT October 1, 2008
Dubai 10:47 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
some here make that daily....EOM...GL

Dubai 10:47 GMT October 1, 2008
Made profit of 933.45$ from 29/o9/08 to today
Reply   
If anyone wants to see my statement, welcome, but, don't know how to post it here.

US PROPANE 10:44 GMT October 1, 2008
MICRO ACCOUNTS
Reply   
I have been reasearching different brokers that have mirco account....it seem the only broker that lets you have a no max on deposits for micro is MB Trading...Please tell me if there are any other brokers that let you depost more than 10k...forinstance F X C M only lets you have a max of 5k on there micro account...after 5k you are forced to trade 10k lots

Dubai 10:36 GMT October 1, 2008
Hellow
Reply   
Hellow everyone

BEDFORD VT 10:17 GMT October 1, 2008
USD/CHF
Reply   
Richland QC Mailman

Hi Mailman, I'm sure I saw you post that you were either going to short the usd/chf or had already?

Is that the case now Mailman.
Regards, VT

PAR 10:08 GMT October 1, 2008
Farmer Mac
Reply   
What a difference a month makes. What goes up must come down.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/business/10home.html?_r=1&sq=farmer%20mac&st=cse&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&scp=1&adxnnlx=1222855320-o8KdwkwRtexu6haU4ZvSbA



The Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation, or Farmer Mac, for example, has been on a roll lately. Its shares have soared 153 percent this year, and its profit is up. Chartered by the federal government in 1988, Farmer Mac buys mortgages on farmland from agricultural lenders and then sells instruments backed by those loans. The company is thriving because the price of crops — and farmland — has been rising.

PAR 09:56 GMT October 1, 2008
Farmer Mac
Reply   
Big Mac Next ?


Farmer Mac Officials Discuss
Strategies to Stabilize Firm
By DAMIAN PALETTA and DAVID ENRICH

WASHINGTON -- Top directors and officials from Farmer Mac, the government-chartered organization that provides funding for agricultural loans across the U.S., met late Tuesday in Washington to discuss ways to stabilize the company.

Farmer Mac faces heavy losses due to its holdings of tens of millions of dollars worth of investments that have rapidly lost value, including preferred stock of its cousin, Fannie Mae, which was seized by the government earlier this month, and Lehman Brother Holdings Inc., the collapsed investment bank.

The company's options include raising capital by issuing new stock or selling assets. If the company can't raise ...

US PROPANE 09:53 GMT October 1, 2008
EUR/CHF
Reply   
Can someone please give me there latest swap rate on this pair...my platform is showing a postive,, this doesn't compute in history of the pair

Syd 09:49 GMT October 1, 2008
Two People Die Of Rare Form Of Plague In Tibet - Report
Reply   
BEIJING (AFP)--Two people in eastern Tibet have died of the deadliest and least common form of plague, Chinese state media said Wednesday.

The health department of the Himalayan region was notified Friday that two people had died of an unidentified illness in a village in the Linzhi area, more than 200 kilometers southeast of the capital Lhasa, the Beijing Times reported.

Health authorities examined the victims and determined they died of pneumonic plague

Como Perrie 09:44 GMT October 1, 2008
crisis
Reply   
Interesting there are several banks linked to bad companies.. as Unicredit to Parmalat ML to Enron etc.. all have at least one...good part of those losses are yet hidden in outbalance sheets as It was the hope of the various boards to sell that and redistribute to small fishes.

Como Perrie 09:42 GMT October 1, 2008
crisis
Reply   
for the coming month the risk is for the several banks cited (and other) to stop activity waiting for some global Bretton Wood third edition or go bankrupt... there are several retailers already taking out bad investment that banks are forced to buy back, as a conseguence some several went out of liquidity and most of those have already their credit lines cut....bad times ahead

Como Perrie 09:38 GMT October 1, 2008
crisis
Reply   
btw am taking a vacation into next year, just mirroring here and there...there are other problems onto the horizon as I see that might make sharp explosions of inflations in coming months... as said the crisis has just begun...

good luck survivors :)

madrid 09:37 GMT October 1, 2008
Treasury’s Financial-Bailout Proposal to Congress
Reply   
The REAL thing.

Treasury’s Financial-Bailout Proposal to Congress

WSJ!

Fascinating stuff.. .........

Como Perrie 09:36 GMT October 1, 2008
crisis
Reply   
It does not matter at this point anymore what the senate votes... at best they might just revive some volatiliy but not solve the market problemes... One proposal of mine is to jail the politicians and managers that have let to hide huge losses and false evaluations in their books...there are other of corse, but to small to the current global malaffair...

Richland QC Mailman 09:33 GMT October 1, 2008
Trade ranging while Waiting for Senate Vote
Reply   
I have a feeling the lobbyist in the Senate will get it later. And this will confirm technical bottoms on euro and cable. Meanwhile, market is simply ranging. Expect another tumultuous, wide fluctuation as the vote unfolds later.

madrid 09:29 GMT October 1, 2008
A revamped financial rescue plan aimed at restoring market confidence
Reply   


WASHINGTON/LONDON (Reuters) - A revamped financial rescue plan aimed at restoring market confidence faces a vote by the Senate late on Wednesday, reviving hopes that the lawmakers can turn the tide in the global banking crisis.

BEDFORD VT 09:27 GMT October 1, 2008
Senate Vote
Reply   
Does anyone have a view on how the Senate Vote will impact on the $ ?.

Prague JIT 09:25 GMT October 1, 2008
Time of vote
Reply   
Good morning. Does anybody know at what time is the Senate vote today, please. Thank you.

Como Perrie 09:23 GMT October 1, 2008
crisis
Reply   
Hearing huge troubles in most banks to close september books.. Some several do not know exactly the amount of their complex losses structuring..

Northern Beaches ARD 09:21 GMT October 1, 2008
Explain
Reply   
hk nt 09:17 GMT October 1, 2008
re: HK RF:
HK [email protected] 08:55 GMT October 1, 2008

seems they may cooperate to pass the bill this Thursday.
Passing the bill means confirmation of double bottoms.

Plse explain this.Thnx

hk nt 09:17 GMT October 1, 2008
re: HK RF
Reply   
HK [email protected] 08:55 GMT October 1, 2008

seems they may cooperate to pass the bill this Thursday.
Passing the bill means confirmation of double bottoms.

HK [email protected] 08:55 GMT October 1, 2008
Trillion dollars
Reply   
That bailout plan is a sure win-win plan, as the Fed has already contributed more than a trillion$ to markets liquidity, and may contribute even more and more.

. So here it is!

Bankers just take it as you wish from the mountains of money so nice whaaaaa!!!!

That money flash is Fed. or Taxpayers money if you can help my ignorance.

That support liquidity money is in the market, and done, so why add another 700B$ with harder conditions for the banks?

Leave them with the toxic assets and keep on at will flooding them with liquidity.

Sure now the congress will become angry with the senate, as they try to take the wind of their hardly earnrd achievments from last sleepless night.

Shameless Senate! Tries to submarine and plagiarize a hardly earned congress creation.

So expect a new possible NAY from congress !!!




Syd 08:50 GMT October 1, 2008
DJ German IW Institute Sees 2009 GDP At +0.6% Vs +1.7% In 2008
Reply   
German economic growth will slow to 0.6% next year after a 1.7% growth expected in 2008, the business-funded IW research institute said Wednesday.

"The global financial crisis will leave its mark on the German economy," the Cologne-based institute said.

Bilad KaL 08:49 GMT October 1, 2008
AUDNZD
Reply   
AUDNZD
1.1750 area seems ok for some 2-3 big figures
EURCAD...Now Longing for over a month Holding
AUDCAD...Getting there but not yet

Syd 08:47 GMT October 1, 2008
Sharp Fall In Mfg PMI Fails To Dent GBP/USD
Reply   
[Dow Jones] As was the case with the euro zone PMI the market seems in no mood to react to data this morning. The UK September manufacturing PMI at 41.0 contracted for the 5th straight month and at the sharpest pace in 16 years, and GBP/USD is unchanged after the numbers at 1.7803

Syd 08:46 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout Move More Difficult For Europe -UBS
Reply   
Bailout Move More Difficult For Europe -UBS

0840 GMT [Dow Jones] If passing a fiscal bailout package in the US has been difficult, it "fades in comparison" to the problems of passing a similar package in the euro zone given it would require agreement across nation states, says UBS. On top of that, European banks are much more concentrated and their collective share of GDP is higher, the bank adds, suggesting that the USD's rise against the EUR should continue

Bilad KaL 08:44 GMT October 1, 2008
DJI
Reply   
I would buy goog at around 320 area
DJI at 9200 area

London NYAM 08:40 GMT October 1, 2008
S&P
Reply   
US PROPANE 08:32//Accidentally posted on FF but yes. don't really track DOW, so don’t know equivalent level for the day trade shorts (Im in at 1164) here until 1182/3 stop area. You never know what the gov agents have up their sleeves to prop things up for a day or week. Too much damage to go back from here I suspect (to the good ol' days). glgt

Gen dk 08:34 GMT October 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

US PROPANE 08:32 GMT October 1, 2008
London NYAM 08:26 GMT October 1, 2008
Reply   
DJIA headed to 9611 second half 2009///good levels to sell here....

London NYAM 08:26 GMT October 1, 2008
S&P
Reply   


S&P just kissed the 100% extension from the lows 1109.75 A=1150.75 b= 1128.25 at 1168.50 (exact at 1169.25). As long as 1182 remains untouched target below now expands to 1031.38 should 1048.50 break. Should be an interesting day.

Syd 08:21 GMT October 1, 2008
The Lunatic has definitely taken over the Asylmn
Reply   
Treasury is working on a proposal that could insure a staggering total of £1.9trillion in deposits in UK banks and building societies, said officials.
Pressure for an immediate interest rate cut intensified as official figures pointed to a full-blown recession by Christmas.
The early morning meeting between Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, Mr Brown and Chancellor Darling fuelled speculation that action on rates is imminent.

Syd 08:17 GMT October 1, 2008
EUR/USD Downside Risk Below 1.4330 - Commerzbank
Reply   
EUR/USD remains under pressure and this situation will continue while it remains capped by resistance at 1.4330, says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. The rate sold-off toward 1.40 Tuesday which is the last defense ahead of the recent 1.3880 lows, says Jones. Below here next support is 1.3840 which should hold and trigger some profit taking, however if it fails then risk opens toward 1.3670 and 1.3375. EUR/USD now at 1.4133

US PROPANE 08:14 GMT October 1, 2008
NZD/CHF
Reply   
SOLD 7580 SL 7680 TP 74oo

Syd 08:07 GMT October 1, 2008
Euro Zone Sep Mfg PMI Falls To 45.0 Vs 47.6 Aug
Reply   
Euro zone manufacturing purchasing manager's index shows output shrank for the fourth straight month in September. The measure fell to 45.0 in September from 47.6 in August, below expectations for 45.3. A reading above 50 signals growth, while a level below 50 signals contraction. Germany's manufacturing PMI was 47.4 in September after 49.7 in August. In France, the PMI fell to 43.0 from 45.8 in August. Italy's PMI fell to 44.4 in September from 47.1 a month earlier. Spain's manufacturing PMI hit 38.3 in September after 42.4 in August

Syd 08:05 GMT October 1, 2008
EUR/USD
Reply   
[Dow Jones] The USD is benefiting from the realization that the credit crisis is no longer considered just a US problem, says UniCredit. Under this scenario the bank says it recommends staying short of EUR/USD and GBP/USD, which currently trade at 1.4124 and 1.7794 respectively

PAR 07:54 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout
Reply   
The champagne bottle corks were popping as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson announced his trillion-dollar bailout for the banks, buying up their toxic mortgages. To a skeptic, Paulson's proposal looks like another of those shell games that Wall Street has honed to a fine art. Wall Street has always made money by slicing, dicing and recombining risk. This "cure" is another one of these rearrangements: somehow, by stripping out the bad assets from the banks and paying fair market value for them, the value of the banks will soar.

There is, however, an alternative explanation for Wall Street's celebration: the banks realized that they were about to get a free ride at taxpayers' expense. No private firm was willing to buy these toxic mortgages at what the seller thought was a reasonable price; they finally had found a sucker who would take them off their hands -- called the American taxpayer


http://www.alternet.org/workplace/101034/here%27s_a_better_bailout_plan/

Syd 07:42 GMT October 1, 2008
bail-out gamble
Reply   
Brown's bail-out gamble: Now PM looks at guarantee for ALL savings... but dare he take the risk?
Gordon Brown is drawing up a drastic emergency plan to rescue the City as he vowed to do 'whatever it takes' to restore financial stability.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1065453/
Browns-bail-gamble-Now-PM-looks-guarantee-ALL-
savings--dare-risk.html

Syd 07:39 GMT October 1, 2008
data
Reply   
PARIS (AFP)--The European Central Bank should take into account the effects of the current financial crisis when it meets to set its main lending rate, France's minister for European affairs said Wednesday.

"It's for the ECB, taking into account what the impact will be on prices and on economic activity, to say what conclusions it has come to as regards the rate," Jean-Pierre Jouyet said in an interview on France Inter radio.

The ECB board is to meet Thursday but is expected to hold its rate steady at 4.25%, despite pressure from some European governments for a cut to boost the money supply in difficult economic times.


Australian manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in September amid softening consumer demand and a slumping global economy, according to a report today.

The Australian Industry Group performance of manufacturing index gained 0.2 points to hit 47.2 in September, essentially unchanged from August, when it registered 47 points. The index has remained below 50 - which separates expansion from contraction - since June, according to data from Bloomberg.

PAR 07:35 GMT October 1, 2008
Crude
Reply   
Bad side effect passing of bailout pact for Joe Sixpack is that it seems to send crude and commodity prices sharply higher,while no passing of bailout send commodity prices lower.

PAR 07:18 GMT October 1, 2008
Creativity
Reply   
Azusa/

What happened to Schumpeters idea of " Creative Destruction". It got killed by a new invention. The Lobbyists and their money throwing .

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction

Syd 07:13 GMT October 1, 2008
ECB
Reply   
France's Jouyet: ECB will draw consequences of financial markets crisis on rates
- Says leaders summit on October 15 will greatly impact crisis, regulation
- Sees fallout from crisis to last another year
WTO's Lamy: There is risk of recession; Financial system needs some kind of global regulation
Financials: Heard on the Street looks at the trillions of dollars in debt that needs to be refinanced by European banks - WSJ
- Some of Europe's largest banks face the problem of how to refinance debt that is coming due in the short to medium term.
- The refinancing efforts could become even more challenging if the interbank market remains frozen.
- According to JP Morgan, Europe's top 30 financial institutions have €718B maturing in the next 15 months, which is equal to more than 25% of their whole-sale funding requirements.
- Another 51% matures by 2011.
- The article notes that UK banks look particularly vulnerable because of the scale of the refinancing they face.
- With respect to RBS, the article notes that without asset sales the bank may be short of a small piece of Tier 1 capital just as £4.7B in subordinated debt comes due between now and the end of 2009 and the cost of insuring that debt against default has doubled in the past 3 months.
- Lloyds TSB will have to refinance about £4B in debt by 2010 and the cost of default insurance on Lloyd's subordinated debt has nearly doubled in the past month.

AZUSA 4x-ed 07:13 GMT October 1, 2008
Comrades
Reply   
correction... not comrades! The PC term is Bushevics

PAR 07:10 GMT October 1, 2008
Fortis, Dexia
Reply   
I cannot understand how the Belgian government can buy shares in the banks Fortis and Dexia (with borrowed money,while everybody knows you should not buy shares with borrowed money) , at the same time guarantee the deposits of those banks ( without any money) and say it will have no impact on the already gigantic budget deficit and public debt . Better than alchemy.

Also dont get why all those central bank try to manipulate LIBOR . Pleas let the market play on interest rates as this ultimately will solve the problems faster than comrades Bernanke,Paulson and Bush.

AZUSA 4x-ed 07:04 GMT October 1, 2008
Par, why so much hostility? It’s the rich that keep your economy going. Joe Sixpack’s idea of french goods is Paris Hilton cologne and McFries.

US PROPANE 07:03 GMT October 1, 2008
E$
Reply   
SELL HERE....support start 13979 but will probably fail....

madrid 07:02 GMT October 1, 2008
Feeling better now?
Reply   





With screens of green, the socialists back on top and volatility like you have never seen before, we are entering a new era of unprecedented uncertainty and knee jerk trading.

fintag.com

PAR 06:46 GMT October 1, 2008
Bailout
Reply   
I guess that contrary to Joe Sixpack (who has mostly credit card debt ) most Us senators and congressmen will benefit greatly from the increased FDIC bankinsurance to $250000 .
So with this feature and some tax reductions for the rich included ,I guess the bailout plan will pass smoothly .

madrid 06:44 GMT October 1, 2008
junker
Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 06:39 GMT October 1, 2008

They may have the same speech/PR firm writer ... or maybe Junker Googled it !!!

8-)

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:39 GMT October 1, 2008
re: EU's Junker
Take a few names/places out of the speech and it sounds like a replay of Paulson a few short months ago.

Does he really mean 'stronger sector', or does he mean 'less transparency' than US?

Syd 06:26 GMT October 1, 2008
EU's Juncker:
Reply   
DJ EU's Juncker: European Banking Sector Stronger Than US Sector
Still Risks On Some Sub Sectors But No Threat In Europe
No Need For Bailout Plan In Europe
Believes There Won't Be Banking Bankrupcies In France
Excessive Volatility Of Exchange Rates Isn't Desirable
Growth Forecast For 09 Need To Be Cut
Europe Growth In 09 Will Be Below 1%

madrid 06:16 GMT October 1, 2008
short selling
Reply   
The SEC is expected to extend its ban on short selling, which is set to expire October 2.

Reuters

HK [email protected] 06:04 GMT October 1, 2008
Senate Decision
Reply   
Any rally in stocks world wide will be short lived, simply elections is too close. If the Fed. likes to produce rallies in favor of the exiting funds and public that is very nice.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
US Senate to vote Wednesday on bailout package:

In a bid to build Republican backing for the bailout in the House, the Senate bill will include votes on extending tax cuts which are set to expire and an extension of federal insurance for bank deposits to 250,000 dollars.
......
.......
But Democratic rebels who joined in an unusual alliance with conservative Republicans to scupper the bailout bill in the House warned the Senate not to try and rush the bill through to put them under pressure
...................................................................................
Maybe the Senate will add some more candies for the last moment. The only question is if they will vote ahead on the same
what later will be voted by the congress.

I just wonder what percentage of Americans will benefit from the 250000 insurance after the housing and stock market crash.

Maybe the Senate sees so many banks collapse on the horizon.

All the present situation looks unnerving and not too respectful.

Will get now a cold glass of water. GL/GT





Bilad KaL 06:03 GMT October 1, 2008
I Love this
Reply   
INSTALLING A HUSBAND

Dear Tech Support,

Last year I upgraded from Boyfriend 5.0 to Husband 1.0 and noticed a
distinct slow down in overall system performance, particularly in the flower
and jewellery applications, which operated flawlessly under Boyfriend 5.0.

In addition, Husband 1.0 uninstalled many other valuable programs, such as
* Romance 9.5 and
* Personal Attention 6.5, and then installed undesirable programs
such as
* NBA 5.0,
* NFL 3.0 and
* Golf Clubs 4.1.

Conversation 8.0 no longer runs, and Housecleaning 2.6 simply crashes the
system.

* Please note that I have tried running Nagging 5.3 to fix these
problems, but to no avail.

What can I do?

Signed,

Desperate.



DEAR DESPERATE,

First, keep in mind,
* Boyfriend 5.0 is an Entertainment Package, while
* Husband 1.0 is an operating system.

Please enter command: ithoughtyoulovedme. html and try to download Tears 6.2
and do not forget to install the Guilt 3.0 update.
* If that application works as designed, Husband1.0 should then
automatically run the applications Jewellery 2.0 and Flowers 3.5.

However, remember, overuse of the above application can cause Husband 1.0 to
default to Grumpy Silence 2.5, Happy Hour 7.0 or Beer 6.1.
* Please note that Beer 6. 1 is a very bad program that will download
the Snoring Loudly Beta.

Whatever you do, DO NOT under any circumstances install Mother-In-Law 1.0
(it runs a virus in the background that will eventually seize control of all
your system resources.)

In addition, please do not attempt to reinstall the Boyfriend 5.0 program
These are unsupported applications and will crash Husband 1.0.

In summary, Husband 1.0 is a great program, but it does have limited memory
and cannot learn new applications quickly. You might consider buying
additional software to improve memory and performance. We recommend
* Cooking 3.0 and
* Hot Lingerie 7.7.

Best of Success J
Tech Support

Richland QC Mailman 05:30 GMT October 1, 2008
bail-out status dictating
Reply   
Since the bail-out news came out, market has been disgesting it quite well, with some irrational expectations and results, as it is hard reconcile how this financial mess benefits the dollar. I think if US Senate passes it, then we can see the dollar weakening. On strict technical terms, especially on euro and cable, it is at a level when traders are looking to short, ride on the downtrend, expecting for the lows 1.3880 and 1.7700 to be broken. It is when everybody is cheering for the USD when market would take the opposite way imo.

Bru Yein 04:11 GMT October 1, 2008
sorry
Reply   
sorry for the double entry thought the text cannot be sent : )

HK REVDAX 04:10 GMT October 1, 2008
$ coming down
Reply   
Quito Valdez 02:33 //i am also of the view that US$ is coming down but HOW do you determine where to place the tight stops? TIA

Bru Yein 04:10 GMT October 1, 2008
gap
Reply   
Hi does anyone here experience a gap in their charts in hourly time frame?
GLGT

Bru Yein 04:09 GMT October 1, 2008
gap
Reply   
Hi everyone just want to know whether some of you experience a gap in their charts around few hours ago?
Thanx GLGT

Syd 03:53 GMT October 1, 2008
RBA Keeps System Flush With Cash
Reply   
The Reserve Bank of Australia Wednesday kept the country's financial system flush with cash, fully offsetting a large daily system deficit by injecting A$4.67 billion.
"There's no doubt that funding pressures are greater than they were in September", which makes it difficult to predict whether the central bank will cut its cash rate target by 25 basis points or 50 basis points at its next policy meeting Oct. 7, he said.

Some analysts argue that the recent rise in funding costs will make commercial banks reluctant to pass on to borrowers in full any cash rate cut by the RBA and the central bank will therefore have to cut its target by a larger amount to ensure the policy easing flows through to the wider economy.

The RBA had initially estimated a daily system deficit of A$4.63 billion. By injecting slightly more than that amount, the RBA has kept commercial banks' exchange settlement accounts at the central bank over A$11 billion - their highest level since the credit crunch erupted in mid 2007. DJ

Syd 03:48 GMT October 1, 2008
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Falling; Japan Names Eyed
Reply   

USD/JPY, EUR/JPY falling due to selling by Japan exporters, also some large Japan investors, says senior dealer at major Japan bank. Notes these players have been selling pair since early in morning; but adds USD, EUR buy orders from Japan importers disappeared after 0100 GMT Tokyo fixing, and sell orders having relatively big impact on thinly-traded Asian FX market.

Syd 03:28 GMT October 1, 2008
Components of the alternative plan including the following, according to sources:
Reply   
A group of House Republicans is cobbling together a proposal to stabilize financial markets that can serve as an alternative to the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, legislative sources have told CNBC.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/26962690

FW CS 03:09 GMT October 1, 2008
Liquidation Market
Reply   
Quito Valdez 02:53 GMT October 1, 2008
Mr. Valdez as you were saying about liquidation type moves in the Dollar the same arguement could be used for Europe. If EZ banks in trouble then we could see Euros coming back home like we saw last month for the $ index. Fear brings money back home for all the forced liquidations and since the Euro is medium term oversold the surge north could be as dramatic as the ride down.....

Reino do Dragão Cubriclas 03:05 GMT October 1, 2008
senate
Reply   
the us senate:
democrats-51
republicans-49
GT & GL

Syd 03:04 GMT October 1, 2008
OZ
Reply   
van jv 02:20 GMT October 1, 2008
deficits:
Syd;;did you compare deficits with those of EUR and US--?and
you have Gold +


You cant compare the Australian Economy with that of the USA AND EUROPE !!!!

Syd 03:01 GMT October 1, 2008
AUS
Reply   
van gv

Over two decades after Paul Keating issued his "banana republic" warning about the current account deficit which was 6% GDP , it remains Australia's economic Achilles heel, level considered dangerous internationally. now running around 6.5% GDP even after the Mining Boom !!
Remedy for this includes cutting interest rates, loosening monetary policy making more money available, currency depreciation,boosting exports relative to imports.
with money becoming scarce Australia will need to knock down rates and lower its currency to stop the C/A getting out of hand if there is a global recession -

LONDON -- A key index tracking commodities shipments has fallen 52% since the start of the month, a steep decline that suggests manufacturing activity will recede as the world economy slows further.

The drop in the Baltic Dry Index underlines the extent of the U.S. financial crisis' impact on growth in emerging markets and puts into doubt the ability of these economies to expand with North American and European financial markets mired in uncertainty.

A drop in the index creates a domino effect across commodity types, so prices are likely to fall further. Global markets are in turmoil as banks collapse and governments either take direct control or promise to bail out lenders.

The BDI is a daily index of the 22 main dry-bulk routes shipping raw materials such as those needed in the production of steel, coal and grains. It is a predictor of global growth by showing demand for the raw materials required for manufacturing and construction.

"The index is a good global growth proxy," said Michael Lewis, global head of commodities research at Deutsche Bank.

Currently the market consensus is that global growth will be 3.5% this year, but the index is indicating growth will be closer to 2.5%, Mr. Lewis said.

Iron-ore prices have declined in the past month by 25% between India and China and 24% between Brazil and China. Base metals are also down. Copper traded on the London Metal Exchange has fallen 31% since its July record high of $8,940 a ton and global steel prices in September were down 9.8% on the month.

Chicago Board of Trade nearby wheat futures prices have fallen by roughly 16% since the end of August.

Energy prices are expected to be the next commodity to post sharp declines, Mr. Lewis said. Deutsche Bank forecasts oil to fall toward $85 a barrel before the end of 2008.

With so many economies in distress right now, there are too many ships and not enough cargo, according to the Baltic Exchange.

The BDI hit a record high of 11,793 in May and has fallen to 3,217 after starting September at 6,691.

Euroseas Ltd., a Greek container and dry-bulk shipowner, said spot charter rates for ships carrying 15,000 tons to 35,000 tons has fallen to just under $18,000 from $30,000 a day two months ago.
WSJ

Quito Valdez 02:53 GMT October 1, 2008
bills to house then senate
Reply   
A bill traditionally goes to the House first, then the Senate. I don't know what the ratio of rep to dem there are in both houses of congress...google it. It would be nice to have a summary of the new bill as it is presented for a vote. I hope Blomberg or CNN may have something by tomorrow AM for the public to view.

Back to what I was saying about a USD rebound south. Since this surge was caused by a freak phenominan in forex, I would therefore doubt that support for USD would be strong under these somewhat extraordinary circumstances. It could fall as much as it gained in the next 18 hours. It depends on how much USD demand there would be in Europe from people fleeing european cncy's because they're scared and the remorse set in by the insecurity that a rescue plan will emerge that the mkt considers to be effective enough. I think the mkt is looking at "anything's better than nothing" so I imagine optimism would prevail if the bill is OK'd in both houses of congress by Friday close...that's pushing it..likely next week.

We have to ask ourselves what trigger would render another stock sell off like Monday's? If "Black Monday" existed in the 80s then "Grey Monday" is what we experienced this week's open, a third of "Black Monday's" selloff.

In both the preopen market was sell. Know this pattern.

Reino do Dragão Cubriclas 02:37 GMT October 1, 2008
senate
Reply   
The senate will vote this wednesday the bailout.
What are your expectations?
Whats the diference between the senate and the congress?
Where are more republicans: in the senate or in the congress?
GT & GL

Quito Valdez 02:33 GMT October 1, 2008
USD coming down?
Reply   
Last post before bed... USD vs majors seems to be starting to come down... shorted usdjpy and usdchf at market minutes ago with very tight stop, tgt 100 pips. gt all.

Being that the USD surge today was driven by all that demand for USD when over 1 trillion US stocks sold off yesterday, converting them to USD, and the hedgers also needing wads of USD to fund their antics, sure enough this surge wasn't driven by fundamental events. This was explained by a professional trader first on GVI then I read it later online after the fact.

In the future when a huge US stock sell off occurs, therefore be ready to LONG USD instead of short it. As I mentioned yesterday it's not that we lack logic when the market does a screwey thing like today, in the face of all fundamentals saying the opposite,, we lack knowledge of the actual money flow. That's our downfall.

I would suggest to everyone to ask Jay for an account on GVI when he gets off holiday, it is incredibly enlightening and much different from FF.

Chuck

van jv 02:20 GMT October 1, 2008
deficits
Reply   
Syd;;did you compare deficits with those of EUR and US--?and
you have Gold +

Syd 02:01 GMT October 1, 2008
AUD
Reply   
very Large C/deficit which needs feeding

Syd 01:53 GMT October 1, 2008
AUd
Reply   
van jv 01:46 the thing is - its not the return on the on the money, but whether you get the your money back, Aud is renown for its nosedives due to the very C/deficit which needs to be fed !!

van jv 01:46 GMT October 1, 2008
CT
Reply   
Syd 19:40
RBA:
Big rate cut by by 50 basis points when the central bank board meets on October 7, will still give 6.50 per cent for Carry trade about %6 and cheap AUD

Quito Valdez 00:54 GMT October 1, 2008
commodities to normal please
Reply   
I see nothing wrong with commodity prices where they were a year or two ago. It would be antiinflationary & help out a lot in my opinion. I also think this compulsive fixation with growth growth growth is nonsence. For stability's sake, I'd prefer to see a good solid yet meaty status quo with jobs, reasonable unemployment & sound banking to a bawls to the wall wobbly herniating growth figure, any day.

I also think the importance of this so called bail plan is a bit hyped. Actually it's good to see this waiting period develop to test actually whether it is all that needed or not. I have mixed feelings about the bail plan, so long as it includes legislation or provision (strings attached) that curtail the mistakes for the past 8 years on both sides of the oceans I'd bet US congress would be more willing to go along with it. And if it also muzzled a certain runaway Fed Chief and amigos so they didn't have so much control, it'd go even better. And of course stages set to dole outs rather than plunk down 700bn all at once. All that might make the bill fly. Might. Am still not convinced congressmen will ultimately go against 96% of their constituents wishes.

I agree with the post below that in last half of 09 US would likely make a U turn and recouperate in an orderly fashion but sorrily Europe and possibly Asia would lag as they did after the Sept 11 attack on US by Al Q. USA was the one attacked and it recouped FASTER!

When you sell an american stock or whatnot you get USD in exchange. That unexpected conversion in over 1 trillion of stock volume yesterday created evidently the unexpected USD demand we saw today. I still think the surge in USD is not permanent. but contrary to that, if the mother countries of GBP & EUR & CHF don't get their stuff together then European cncy's will do a face plant on the tarmac just as we/I wrongly expected the USD to.

It's not over til the fat lady sings so I would expect more surprizes and wicked surprise moves for at least 6 months more.

Syd 00:35 GMT October 1, 2008
rba
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AU) RBA adds A$4.67B to the money market

 




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