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Forex Forum Archive for 12/1/2008

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:59 GMT December 1, 2008
fx gold
Reply   
JPN ECON: Nov Reuters Tankan Mfg index -42, Oct -25 The reading is the lowest since March "02. The non-mfg index came in at -16 in November against -9 in October and matches the low hit in August "03. The falls seen in November were the sharpest on record on a m/m basis.

Spot gold now slightly lower, though fairly steady after "miserable" trading day yesterday; but gold holdings in ETFs on major exchanges holding up close to all time highs as metal retains its safe haven appeal, says Goldman Sachs JBWere analyst Malcolm Southwood. Says threat of economic uncertainty and lack of alternative safe-haven investment opportunities are doing battle with waning need for gold as inflationary hedge as risk of deflation increases; "as a consequence, gold is likely to continue showing volatile daily moves over coming weeks." Now at $766.20/oz, down 80 cents vs NY close.


MARKET TALK: Yen Could Make Big Gains - Morgan Stanley's Jen
Japan's yen "could be the next currency to surge against every currency in the world," says Morgan Stanley's global head of currency research, Stephen Jen; as Japan's economy falters (exports are collapsing and Economic Minister Yosano has just warned that fiscal stimulus may not help), "risk-aversion will likely rise among Japanese investors, who are sitting on large paper losses from the recent currency movements. Repatriation to avoid further losses could lead to a sharp surge in the yen," Notes RUB is still a pressure point in Europe, "but the yen is becoming a second pressure point." End-year USD/JPY target is 90 but adds this could be broken through. "The yen should be bought now."

Syd 23:46 GMT December 1, 2008
Pressure Grows On RBA For More Substantial Cut
Reply   
RBA board expected to further slash the official cash rate by 75 basis points to a six-year low of 4.50% after a board meeting today. Result to be made known at 0330 GMT. Growing risk that cut will be more substantial as news on domestic economy has been weak with manufacturing activity spiraling lower and evidence that inflation is falling a lot faster than expected, creating room for deep easing. Comments overnight by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the U.S. economy remains under acute pressure, weak U.S. manufacturing data and plunging share prices could be the trigger more a more substantial cut. Board does not meet again until February, adding to arguments that the cut will be substantial. A hefty cut would throw the policy switch from neutral to stimulatory.

Canada's environment minister: Coalition plan suggests that the country is in "very serious situation"

AUD/JPY selling out of Asia (rumoured to be sovereign names) has taken the AUD/USD through buying interest at 0.6380 to a low of 0.6367. The weak close on Wall Street after a day that saw global equity markets give back a chunk of the gains last week is weighing on AUD sentiment ahead of some key Aus data and the RBA announcement on rates at 02:30 GMT. The next level of AUD/USD support is found at last Tuesday"s 0.6335 low.

SG Awesome Trader 23:34 GMT December 1, 2008
scare scare
Reply   
I'll bet %100 everyone are scared now.
Brokers are taking all the poor traders stop losses.

Syd 22:35 GMT December 1, 2008
fx
Reply   
A worrying sign for those looking to China to save the world economy, China's manufacturing PMI nosedived - from 44.6 in October to 38.8 in November. The export orders component of the PMI survey came out at an astounding 28.2, probably the lowest we have ever seen any component of any PMI survey. This is brutal stuff for the Chinese authorities to contend with. One way to trade this news in G7 is with a short AUD position, as AUD has founds some support recently on stabilizing commodities and rallying equities. Those supports could come under threat this weak and worries over China could add to the bad vibes for the Aussie. Beware that tonight, the RBA is set to adjust their cash target once again. The baseline expectation is for a cut of 75 bps, to bring the rate to 4.50%.
censored Bank (sexybank)

China, China, China ... A Nightmare in the Making?
Vulnerable to Emerging Market Defaults When it comes to emerging markets, Eastern and Central Europe account for $1.6 trillion in loans from G10 countries’ banks. Asia and Latin America are next on the list — recipients of $1.5 trillion and $1 trillion, respectively, according to Morgan Stanley’s Global Economic Forum. And if you break down the loan originators, Western Europe and the United Kingdom are where roughly 45% of these emerging market loans came from. Whereas only 9% originated from U.S. or Japanese banks. In fact, European and UK banks are more exposed to emerging economies in Eastern Europe, Asia and Latin America.LINK

EU's Almunia: Economic outlook for EMU is worse than that observed in Nov, downside risks increasing, Fiscal policy must be coordinated to make an impact
- Reminder on 11/27 EU's Almunia reiterated that downside economic risks are materializing and that estimates need to be revised to show negative growth

EU's Juncker reiterates that monetary policy by itself will not be enough to end the crisis, need fiscal policy as well
- Says ministers want stability pact fully implemented
- Note: On 11/25 Juncker remarked that the ECB had room for further rate cuts and that monetary policy is not only answer to economic crisis

The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to cut rates for the fourth time in as many months at 22:30 ET on Monday, with a Bloomberg News poll of economists calling for a 75 basis point reduction to a more than 6-year low of 4.50 percent. However, there is some potential for an even more aggressive move, as Credit Suisse overnight index swaps are pricing in at least a 100 basis point cut, which would bring the RBA's cash rate target to the lowest since December 2001. Such a move would likely weigh on the Australian dollar heavily. Overall, Australia is facing major headwinds from financial market instability, which has led to tighter credit conditions, as well as from both domestic and foreign demand. Indeed, global slowdown is hurting exports, something the Australian economy depends on for employment and broad growth. The situation has not been helped by significantly lower commodity prices, though it has served to cool inflation pressures, which leaves the RBA additional leeway to make monetary policy more accommodative in coming months.

Mtl JP 22:07 GMT December 1, 2008
Bonds

bonbon - what do you have in mind:
30% - 100% - something else ?
also: what would you recommend as positioning insurance policy against such a possibility ?

Punta Cana bonbon 21:42 GMT December 1, 2008
Bonds

FED is insane ... let hyperinflation cleans the whole censored

BEN ma frd the cure is HYPERINFLATION not DEFLATION !!! you gonna kill everybody out there ...years of pain are clouding over USA

lkwd jj 21:38 GMT December 1, 2008
USDJPY
Reply   
93.54 is resistance. low of 11/20. bounced off there first time around today. once it went under has been resistance.

GVI Forex john 21:23 GMT December 1, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

1-Dec-08

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

Close

1.2671

93.35

1.2029

1.4910

1.2391

High

1.2707

95.55

1.2143

1.5405

1.2523

Low

1.2583

93.06

1.2020

1.4808

1.2308

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.2838

95.10

1.1922

1.5108

1.2337

10 day

1.2726

95.50

1.1976

1.4965

1.2459

20 day

1.2739

96.64

1.1846

1.5100

1.2221

50 day

1.3203

99.33

1.1476

1.6235

1.1808

100 day

1.4094

103.70

1.1091

1.7513

1.1125

200 day

1.4839

103.85

1.0656

1.8605

1.0605

Geneva 20:53 GMT December 1, 2008
Bonds

GENEVA DS 20:50 GMT December 1, 2008

Yes, the dollar should be worthless! I think it will start in January! as for 30 years it can go to 135 maxi!

GL

GENEVA DS 20:50 GMT December 1, 2008
Bonds

Hi Geneva... we will all buy bonds again.... if 1) the USDCHF is at 50 pct from now... i.e. 0.6000 and 2) when interest rates will be at 10 pct at least for 30 year treasury.... both will happen... good trades to you

Geneva 20:27 GMT December 1, 2008
Bonds
Reply   
If the Fed will buy long bonds, the next step is that CB's will sell them as they will be too expensive, who will finance the US after?

n y 20:21 GMT December 1, 2008
eur.jpy call result

what do you think about eur jpy Amman ?

Amman wfakhoury 19:59 GMT December 1, 2008
eur.jpy call result
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 19:39 GMT December 1, 2008
eur.jpy call: Reply
buy at 117.60 tp 119.00 buy another at 116.50 if decline exit both at 11750
-------
exited at 11850

Amman wfakhoury 19:56 GMT December 1, 2008
did you miss the 75pips till now..
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 19:39 GMT December 1, 2008
eur.jpy call: Reply
buy at 117.60 tp 119.00 buy another at 116.50 if decline exit both at 11750

Amman wfakhoury 19:47 GMT December 1, 2008
Did you miss the 50 pips till now
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 19:39 GMT December 1, 2008
eur.jpy call: Reply
buy at 117.60 tp 119.00 buy another at 116.50 if decline exit both at 11750

Tokyo TOMMY 19:45 GMT December 1, 2008
USD/JPY
Reply   
usdjpy 93.00-05 strong support,
but it is going to break soon

Amman wfakhoury 19:39 GMT December 1, 2008
eur.jpy call
Reply   
buy at 117.60 tp 119.00 buy another at 116.50 if decline exit both at 11750

Vienna Kerry 19:30 GMT December 1, 2008
Dollar yen

Brokers drink to much whiskey and dont find direction.
This is no shark hunting but a drunken broker syndrom dont finding his way

NYC ET 18:57 GMT December 1, 2008
Dollar yen

Feels more like real flows than shark hunting.

lugano fc 18:48 GMT December 1, 2008
Dollar yen

in this time clear brakes (to the downside) means buy tommorrow....will again go to 97

at the moment no market just big shark eating stops even far away stops. better not to trade...let them eat themselves first.

NYC ET 18:20 GMT December 1, 2008
Trust
Reply   
it is hard to trust moves at this time of year generally but even more so now given influences of equities, weak data and falling interest rates..

London NYAM 17:39 GMT December 1, 2008
Equity charting

137.70 Low looks like its about to get broken. 136.70 is fib extension target 1.618 of one weekly wave count. I would have preferred to see the collapse in this cross coincide with the final collapse in equities but it looks like this early move is going to open up a potential move under 130 (i favour 120-122 eventually). Short term its all about that low and with such momentum in this move it would seem likely to break.

USA BAY 17:26 GMT December 1, 2008
Equity charting

London Nyam.

Hi Nyam,

Can I have your view on gbp/jpy. tia

Hong Kong Qindex 17:16 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/GBP : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is working on the projected resistant points at 0.8500 - 0.8528 - 0.8564.

London NYAM 17:03 GMT December 1, 2008
Equity charting

Should read: "We are now in day 4 of this wave 4...".

Lahore FM 17:03 GMT December 1, 2008
Trade Ideas

gbpusd long 1.4977 stopped at 1.4840 for minus 137.

fresh long entered at 1.4843,stops later.looking for 1.5100 first.

London NYAM 17:02 GMT December 1, 2008
Equity charting
Reply   
Though not convinced that we have bottomed overall in these (equity) markets I still believe we have not completed this wave 4 and are presently just feeling the wave b pessimism. Below on S&P all important 799/800 61.8 should offer a great platform for a thrilling wave c (targets pending but 955 to 1022?) that would lift contra-dollar as well as the carry trades with them. Unfortunately, with no hard and fast rule as to how low the b can go, one would likely have to trade light with eyes on supports breaking to keep from getting swamped in the ultimate draw which I maintain is down (600-700). Were now in day 4 of this wave 3 so tomorrow or Wednesday would be a pretty good day to mark the wave bottom (3/2 days. 3/3 days). End of weeks have turned optimistic again recently so I expect that theme to continue.

mumbai pk 16:37 GMT December 1, 2008
USDINR
Reply   
anyone trading USDINR over here

mumbai pk 16:16 GMT December 1, 2008
Dollar yen

absolutely

Hong Kong Qindex 16:00 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD : The odds are good that the market will test the supporting strength of 1.4394* ... 1.4591 later this week.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:58 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD : The market will tackle the weekly cycle normal lower limits at 1.4591 - 1.4680 - 1.4729 tomorrow.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:55 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD : It is heading towards 1.4788

Hong Kong Qindex 15:51 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

St. Pete islander 15:48 GMT - GBP/USD : The market will take a rest but the rebound is very limited.

St. Pete islander 15:48 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

Q, once again .... a beautiful call on GBP/USD as we arrive at 1.4840. Do you expect a bounce from this point or ...? Cheers.

Bilad KaL 15:40 GMT December 1, 2008
Stocks
Reply   
Buying calls on GM till 10 Bucks
and Bidu calls
from 116 to 150
^NDX from 1114 calls till 1220

C Longs at 7 Bucks till 12

lkwd jj 15:38 GMT December 1, 2008
Dollar yen

hope all is well with you.

mumbai pk 15:31 GMT December 1, 2008
Dollar yen
Reply   
All supports broken . Clear sell with stop loss at 95.60. Expected targets 90.00 and 86.00. Currently trading at 93.96

GVI Forex john 15:30 GMT December 1, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis



EARLIER..

U.S. mfg PMI

REFRESH TO UPDATE CHART

mumbai pk 15:29 GMT December 1, 2008
gold view
Reply   
Gold approaching critical support. Close below 760 may drag it down towards 625

Hong Kong Qindex 15:24 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/GBP : The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade within the weekly cycle normal upper limits at 0.8437 - 0.8552 - 0.8719. The short term upside targeting point is 0.8651.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:23 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/GBP : The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade within the weekly cycle normal upper limits at 0.8437 - 0.8552 - 0.8719. the short etrm targeting point is 0.8651.

Bilad KaL 14:56 GMT December 1, 2008
eur/gbp

I agree EURGBP

I see Cable below 1.4550
Next day
will be lucky to go over
1.5047
in 3 hrs or so

London C 14:52 GMT December 1, 2008
eur/gbp
Reply   
e.8482 is 61.8% of .8635-.8235

gbp/usd below 1.4930

Lahore FM 14:52 GMT December 1, 2008
Trade Ideas

correction*

Lahore FM 14:28 GMT December 1, 2008
gbpusd long: Reply
long gbpusd 1.4977,stops 1.4840*.target 1.5500.

gold and oil longs stopped out earlier in the day.

considering fresh gold long!

Bilad KaL 14:36 GMT December 1, 2008
2 buys
Reply   
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
AUD/USD
USD/CAD
NZD/USD
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
CHF/JPY

the only in these for today is USDCAD and EURGBP
IMO

Lahore FM 14:28 GMT December 1, 2008
gbpusd long
Reply   
long gbpusd 1.4977,stops 1.2840.target 1.5500.

gold and oil longs stopped out earlier in the day.

considering fresh gold long!

USA BAY 14:23 GMT December 1, 2008
EUR/GBP
Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, any view on eur/gbp please. tia.

London C 14:16 GMT December 1, 2008
GBP

gbp/usd low has been 1.4936. This confirms 1.4930 as potential retracement support at elast for the first run at it.

iom stan 14:00 GMT December 1, 2008
GBP
Reply   
WOW I am overwhelmed !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thanks to all.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:55 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle chart the market is going to challenge the supporting strength of 1.4840 - 1.4865. The next targeting point is 1.4465. The market is under pressure when it is below the monthly cycle pivot center at 1.5027.


Lower Mid-Point References : [1.1179] - 1.3529* - [1.3535] - 1.4138* - 1.4424* -1.4465 - 1.4865 - 1.5300 - [1.5327]

madrid 13:28 GMT December 1, 2008
---breaking news---
Reply   


May the force be with you.

Never set Unrealistic Expectations !

8*)

iom stan 13:13 GMT December 1, 2008
GBP

Thanks for the thoughts. very grateful Stan

London C 13:08 GMT December 1, 2008
GBP

1.4930 is 61.8% of 1.4559 - 1.5531

iom stan 12:57 GMT December 1, 2008
GBP
Reply   
so tell me why no comment on the GBP falling out of the sky?? how far is it going to go. ??? TYIA

GVI Forex john 12:48 GMT December 1, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis

Click for Complete Chart Points

28-Nov-08

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

Close

1.2705

95.68

1.2130

1.5415

1.2376

High

1.2957

95.74

1.2201

1.5448

1.2465

Low

1.2646

95.15

1.1962

1.5259

1.2316

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.2885

95.83

1.1908

1.5115

1.2324

10 day

1.2727

95.86

1.1963

1.4950

1.2442

20 day

1.2736

96.92

1.1819

1.5149

1.2195

50 day

1.3245

99.57

1.1449

1.6304

1.1767

100 day

1.4126

103.83

1.1072

1.7561

1.1102

200 day

1.4850

103.92

1.0650

1.8629

1.0593

PAR 12:16 GMT December 1, 2008
Maybe Just stupid ?
Reply   
http://www.forbes.com/opinions/2008/11/25/bailout-ceo-confidence-oped-cx_dg_1126gerstein.html

Dangerous Thoughts
Dumb And Dumber--And Dumbest
Dan Gerstein, 11.26.08, 12:00 AM EST
How decisions by big CEOs are driving the crisis of confidence.


Mtl JP 12:10 GMT December 1, 2008
Credit vs Saving

PAR 11:59 / Meredith has forgotten that Bush has already stepped in with providing money for nothing: 21 Nov 2008 ... WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush on Friday signed into law an extension of unemployment benefits, the White House said
-
Want to know who the beneficiaries of govt grandeur are ?
$8.5 trillion: Breakdown of the gov't rescue

hehe: 3.2 trill tapped already, and GE has already maxed out its 139billion commitment. Seems like someone seeing potential profit opportunity: U.S. Stock Futures Retreat; GE, ConocoPhillips, Freeport Drop - Bloomberg Dec. 1

PAR 11:59 GMT December 1, 2008
Credit vs Saving
Reply   
(Reuters) - The U.S. credit card industry may pull back well over $2 trillion of lines over the next 18 months due to risk aversion and regulatory changes, leading to sharp declines in consumer spending, prominent banking analyst Meredith Whitney said.

The credit card is the second key source of consumer liquidity, the first being jobs, the Oppenheimer & Co analyst noted.

"In other words, we expect available consumer liquidity in the form or credit-card lines to decline by 45 percent."

Bank of America Corp, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co represent over half of the estimated U.S. card outstandings as of September 30, and each company has discussed reducing card exposure or slowing growth, Whitney said.

A consolidated U.S. lending market that is pulling back on credit is also posing a risk to the overall consumer liquidity, Whitney said.

Mortgages and credit cards are now dominated by five players who are all pulling back liquidity, making reductions in consumer liquidity seem unavoidable, she said.

"...We are now beginning to see evidence of broad-based declines in overall consumer liquidity."

"In a country that offers hundreds of cereal and soda pop choices, the banking industry has become one that offers very few choices," Whitney wrote in a note dated November 30.

She also said credit lines to consumers through home equity and credit cards had been cut back from the second-quarter levels.

"Pulling credit when job losses are increasing by over 50 percent year-over-year in most key states is a dangerous and unprecedented combination, in our view," the analyst said.

GVI Forex john 11:42 GMT December 1, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis



Swiss- Mfg PMI at a record low...

GVI Forex john 11:42 GMT December 1, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis



UK- Mfg PMI at a record low...

GVI Forex john 11:39 GMT December 1, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis



EZ- Mfg PMI at a record low...

GVI Forex john 11:34 GMT December 1, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis



Earlier, Australia mfg PMI...

GVI Forex john 11:30 GMT December 1, 2008
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   


Friday. Japan mfg PMI...

Hong Kong Qindex 11:16 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is below the monthly cycle oivot centers at 120.81 - 122.41 - 122.56. It is now heading towards the weekly cycle pivot centers at 114.35 - 115.48.

Gen dk 10:58 GMT December 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bilad KaL 10:42 GMT December 1, 2008
GBPAUD Long
Reply   
Longing it here
TGT 2.39

Bilad KaL 10:40 GMT December 1, 2008
EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD
Selling from 1.2740 to 1.2400

IMO
GBPNZD a great Buy
around these levels
will Long 2.8096
to 2.8130
Target 2.88 Seems OK

Bilad KaL 10:40 GMT December 1, 2008
EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD
Selling from 1.2740 to 1.2400

IMO
GBPNZD a great Buy
around these levels
will Long 2.8096
to 2.8130
Target 2.88 Seems OK

Bilad KaL 10:38 GMT December 1, 2008
EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD
Selling from 1.2740 to 1.2400

IMO
GBPNZD a great Buy
around these levels
will Long 2.8096
to 2.8130
Target 2.88 Seems OK

wudangshan kaprikorn 10:02 GMT December 1, 2008
ASTROLOGICAL CHALLENGE OF THE DAY LET's SEE

RF -- wow - really great view here from china -- tnx for this info..

Mullum gvm 09:50 GMT December 1, 2008
ASTROLOGICAL CHALLENGE OF THE DAY LET's SEE

just went outside to look at the celestial triangle - awesome - thanks for the heads up

PAR 09:43 GMT December 1, 2008
China
Reply   
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- China’s yuan fell the most since a fixed exchange rate ended in 2005 on speculation policy makers will seek a weaker currency, which may raise trade tension three days before U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson visits Beijing.

The People’s Bank of China set its daily reference rate at the weakest level since August, after resisting pressure for the currency to appreciate since the end of July. Two reports showed China’s manufacturing contracted by a record last month as recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan curbed demand for Chinese products.

The central bank has shifted focus from stemming inflation to sustaining growth after the economy expanded at its weakest pace since 2003 in the third quarter. The yuan’s advance against the dollar has stalled since the two governments last held trade talks in mid June, after it advanced 6.6 percent in the first half of 2008.

“Today’s reference rate is totally unexpected,” said Yang Lindong, a foreign-exchange trader at Shenzhen Development Bank Co. in Shenzhen. “The central bank may want to test the market’s response to the possibility of a weaker yuan, but most likely it will keep the currency stable till the end of this year.”

The yuan slid 0.7 percent to 6.8834 a dollar, the weakest since June 17, before trading at 6.8810 as of 5:17 p.m. in Shanghai, from 6.8349 late last week, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System.

Paulson Talks

The yuan has appreciated 21 percent since a peg against the dollar was scrapped in July 2005, making Chinese shipments less attractive and eroding exporters’ profits. Two-thirds of China’s small toy exporters shut down in the first nine months of this year, the customs bureau said in a report on Nov. 24

Gen dk 09:26 GMT December 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Auckland peat 07:45 GMT December 1, 2008
AUD/NZD
Reply   
it hit the target

Auckland peat 09:53 GMT November 24, 2008
Subject:AUD/NZD
Auckland peat 00:11 GMT October 17, 2008
Subject:AUD/NZD
currently have a long term long from 1.0987 +195 aiming for 1.2 stop 1.06

Hong Kong Qindex 06:26 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot center at (1.2729) - (1.2790) - (1.2868*).

HK [email protected] 03:21 GMT December 1, 2008
ASTROLOGICAL CHALLENGE OF THE DAY LET's SEE
Reply   


THE ASTROLOGICAL CHALLENGE FOR TODAY!!!
(FOR THE BELIEVERS ONLY).

..............Together, they're dynamite.......

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/24nov_skyshow.htm?list128796

It begins tonight with a sunset stroll.

At the end of the day, when the horizon is turning red and the zenith is cobalt-blue, step outside and look southwest. You'll see Venus and Jupiter beaming side-by-side through the twilight. Glittering Venus is absolutely brilliant and Jupiter is nearly as bright as Venus. Together, they're dynamite:

Dec. 1st (sky map) is the best night of all. The now-15% crescent Moon moves in closer to form an isosceles triangle with Venus and Jupiter as opposing vertices. The three brightest objects in the night sky will be gathered so tightly together, you can hide them all behind your thumb held at arm's length.

The celestial triangle will be visible from all parts of the world, even from light-polluted cities. People in New York and Hong Kong will see it just as clearly as astronomers watching from remote mountaintops. Only cloudy weather or a midnight sun (sorry Antarctica!) can spoil the show.
................................................................................


Hong Kong Qindex 02:28 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

St. Pete islander 02:25 GMT - GBP/USD : The monthly cycle charts has been updated.

St. Pete islander 02:25 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

Good morning, Albert. Any additional comments regarding GBP/USD since your Nov28 15:14 post. Your view would be most welcome. Thanks in advance.

HK [email protected] 02:23 GMT December 1, 2008
INDIA-PAKISTAN TENSION
Reply   
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24731282-601,00.html

Pakistan moves army from terror front to India border

Bruce Loudon, South Asia correspondent - December 01, 2008

PAKISTAN is withdrawing troops from the fight against al-Qa'ida and the Taliban to redeploy them to its border with India as tensions between the two nuclear-armed nations escalate over the terrorist massacre in Mumbai.

As the clean-up began after terrorists killed at least 195 people, including two Australians, the only gunman captured provided testimony of the operation's links to a Pakistan-based militant group, intelligence sources said yesterday.

Ajmal Amir Kamal, 21, whose clean-shaven face has become an enduring image of the attacks after he was caught on a CCTV camera wearing a Versace T-shirt, was interrogated in a safe house in Mumbai.

He identified all the attackers as Pakistani citizens and acknowledged that they were trained by Lashkar-e-Toiba, a militant group fighting Indian rule in Kashmir, reports said.

He confirmed the militants had come ashore in dinghies launched from a hijacked vessel whose crew had been killed, reports said.

Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari urged India not to "overreact" after Indian and US officials suggested the militants could have been from the Pakistan-based LET. The group was behind the deadly 2001 assault on the Indian parliament that pushed New Delhi and Islamabad to the brink of war.

"If something happens (amid the rising tensions with India), the war on terror cannot be our priority," a senior Pakistani official told a media briefing yesterday.

"We'll take everything from the western border (with Afghanistan - the main area of al-Qa'ida and Taliban activity). We won't leave anything there." Indian army sources said forces near Pakistan had been placed on a raised alert before a meeting that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh called with security chiefs in New Delhi today. Mr Zardari was meeting Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and his army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, amid fears that the Mumbai crisis had the potential for a replay of the 2001 standoff.

Syd 02:17 GMT December 1, 2008
oz
Reply   
RBA will need to cut cash rate to 2.5% by mid 2009 as "domestic recession is compounded by a sharp fall in inflation and ongoing problems in the banking sector", says TD Securities senior strategist Josh Williamson. Expects RBA to cut 100 bps tomorrow with risk it does more. Also looks for business to collapse by 30%-40% over next 3 years; "the slide in global growth, commodity prices and domestic demand point to a sharp fall in inflation in the months ahead, which will facilitate significantly lower official rates." Says headline inflation could fall below 1% in 2H of 2009

AUD falling mid-Asian trade along with other "risk proxy" currencies on run of negative headlines out of Asia, RBC Capital Markets senior currency strategist Sue Trinh says. Notes Chinese President indicating Chinese trade strength will be significantly threatened, very bad Chinese PMI and fall in South Korean exports all painting bleak picture for emerging market demand. Expects AUD/USD to find support at 0.6400; now 0.6457. Falls also represent some reversal of end-of-month buying and position squaring eyed last week. Expects USD repatriation flows to continue apace toward end 2008, pushing AUD/USD down to 0.6000.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:59 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD : Spot traders are covering their short positions. However the odds are in favor for position traders to sell on rallies

Mtl JP 01:58 GMT December 1, 2008
Retailers ‘Going to the Wall’ as Recession Bites: Chart of Day

Syd 01:49 / looks like still some profit opportunities in the sound of the second shoe - commercial real-estate - about to make that "thud" sound. they owe billions of loans, many for renewal in 2009.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:54 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the daily cycle projected chart point at 1.2573* and the market will head for [1.2464]. The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is below 1.2400.

Syd 01:49 GMT December 1, 2008
Retailers ‘Going to the Wall’ as Recession Bites: Chart of Day
Reply   
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aJqSdOV0G6W0&refer=home

Hong Kong Qindex 01:47 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD : As shown in the directional indicator the market is going to consolidate within 1.2643 - 1.2757 for the time being.


Directional Indicator : [0.9877] - [1.1399] - 1.1752* - 1.2643 - 1.2721 - 1.2757 - 1.2778* - 1.3128* - [1.3943]


Hong Kong Qindex 01:39 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD : 1.2713 is a weekly cycle projected chart point.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:39 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD : 1.2713 is a weekly cycle projected chart point.

Syd 01:36 GMT December 1, 2008
Falls Hard After 0.6480 Breaks/China Concerns Weigh
Reply   
The AUD/USD has fallen below support level at 0.6480/90 amid talk of decent size AUD/JPY selling flows. Analysts say that equity market weakness in Asia is sparking the AUD/JPY and AUD/USD selling flows, as is the weekend report that China President Hu warned about China"s economic prospects due to the global downturn. The comments from Hu are weighing on equity markets and have direct implication for the Australian economy, which is closely tied to China"s economy. The AUD/USD traded down to 0.6440 and has bounced back to 0.6455/60. reuters

Nov Dutch Manufacturing PMI: 38.7, record low

According to an unnamed Indian Minister, the Mumbai attackers were from Pakistan - BBC
DJ CHARTING FOREX: Dlr A Bit Positive Vs AUD, NZD, GBP This Wk
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following is technical analysis of major currency pairs for this week:
USD/JPY (last 95.28) is likely to stay rangebound this week. The daily chart is mixed as the MACD indicator is flat and the stochastic measure neutral, while the five- and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways. Immediate resistance is at Tuesday's high of 97.43; a breach would target the Nov. 13 reaction high of 98.25, and then the Nov. 10 high of 99.47. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 4 reaction high of 100.55. Support is at the Nov. 21 reaction low of 93.54; a breach would expose the downside to the Oct. 27 low of 91.88, and then to the Oct. 24 low of 90.90. USD/JPY is consolidating its negative medium-term trend. A fall below the 90.90 support would suggest a resumption of the medium-term downtrend, and would target the projected base of the descending channel formed with the June 22, 2007 high of 124.16 and the March 17 low of 95.77 on the weekly chart, coming in now at 87.25.

EUR/USD (last 1.2660) is likely to stay rangebound this week. The daily chart is mixed as the stochastic measure is bearish, but the MACD indicator remains bullish. Resistance is at Tuesday's reaction high of 1.3080; a breach would target the Nov. 5 reaction high of 1.3116, then the Oct. 30 reaction high of 1.3294, which is near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the decline from the Sept. 22 high of 1.4865 to the Oct. 28 low of 1.2328. Support is at the Nov. 21 reaction low of 1.2422; a breach would target the Nov. 13 reaction low of 1.2387, and then the Oct. 28 bottom of 1.2328. EUR/USD negative medium-term outlook is under threat after the pair last week posted a higher range and close versus the previous week. In addition, a bullish parabolic stop-and reverse signal was hit at 1.3033 on the weekly chart, and the weekly stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. But the weekly MACD indicator is still in bearish mode. A fall below the 1.2328 support would suggest a resumption of the medium-term downtrend, and would target the Feb. 27, 2006 reaction low of 1.1823, and then the November 2005 trough of 1.1638 in coming weeks.

AUD/USD (last 0.6498) is likely to consolidate with a slightly positive bias this week. The daily MACD indicator is bullish, while the daily stochastic measure is rising and hasn't reached the overbought level. Resistance is at Tuesday's high of 0.6617; a breach would target the Nov. 14 high of 0.6694 and then the Nov. 10 reaction high of 0.6982. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 4 reaction high of 0.7013, and then the Oct. 20 reaction high of 0.7064. Support is Tuesday's low of 0.6330; a breach would tilt the near-term bias negative, exposing the downside to the Nov. 20 reaction low of 0.6073 and then to the Oct. 27 trough of 0.6004. AUD/USD is consolidating its negative medium-term trend. A fall below 0.6004 would suggest a resumption of the medium-term downtrend, targeting the March 2003 reaction low of 0.5878, then the August 2002 trough of 0.5228 in coming weeks.


GBP/USD (last 1.5330) is likely to consolidate with a slightly positive bias this week. The daily MACD indicator is bullish, the daily stochastic measure is rising and hasn't reached the overbought level and the five-day moving average is positioned above the 15-day average. Resistance is at Tuesday's high of 1.5533; a breach would expose the upside to the Nov. 10 high of 1.5884 and then to the Nov. 5 reaction high of 1.6196. An extension of the rise would target the Oct. 30 reaction high of 1.6671. Support is at Wednesday's low of 1.5175; a breach would tilt the near-term bias negative, exposing the downside to the Nov. 21 reaction low of 1.4701 and then to the Nov. 13 trough of 1.4555. Cable's negative medium-term outlook is under threat as the pair had last week posted a higher range and close vs the previous week, and the weekly stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. But the weekly MACD indicator is still in bearish mode. A fall below the 1.4555 support would suggest a resumption of the medium-term downtrend, targeting the Jan. 29, 2002 reaction low of 1.4039, then the June 12, 2001 trough of 1.3677 in coming weeks.


Hong Kong Qindex 01:30 GMT December 1, 2008
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the neutral barrier at 1.2643 // 1.2770.

Syd 00:31 GMT December 1, 2008
.Australia AIG Nov Performance of Manufacturing Index: 32.7 v 40.4 prior (lowest reading on record)
Reply   
Economic woes triggered by the global financial crisis will push more private firms to collapse over the next twelve months, according to a report issued today.
Private companies have an "average chance" of failure in the coming year, compared to the ''low'' failure risk of public companies according to Dun & Bradstreet, which analysed the annual sales of the nation's top 100 private and public companies.
http://smallbusiness.smh.com.au/growing/finance/risk-of-collapse-rises-for-private-companies-907490361.html

With AUD/USD trading up to 0.6600 last week this likely marks full extent of its recovery in response to the fading of risks of another banking crisis in the U.S. and the threat of a global depression, says John Kyriakopoulos, head of FX strategy at nabCapital. Further significant gains from here would require a notable decline in bank funding costs, signs that credit markets were unfreezing, and stabilization in expectations for global economic growth. How aggressively central banks cut interest rates this week will play a key role in whether fears of a global depression continue to recede. RBA will likely cut official rates by 75 bps to 4.5% on Tuesday, but there's a significant risk of a 100 bps cut to 4.25% which is fully priced by traders. Hard to see AUD/USD rallying with RBA slashing rates.
China's president warns of deepening downturn
Chinese President Hu Jintao has warned his country's competitiveness and trade strength are being threatened by a sustained global economic downturn, testing the grip of the ruling Communist Party.
http://business.smh.com.au/business/chinas
-president-warns-of-deepening-downturn-20081201
-6ny6.html

China losing competitive edge: Hu
Chinese President Hu Jintao warned that China has started to lose its competitive edge in trade amid the global financial crisis as he told Communist Party leaders the challenge posed a test to the government's ability to rule.
China's economic growth is expected to fall to about 9 per cent this year, down from last year's 11.9 per cent. That would be the fastest decline of any major economy, but Chinese leaders worry about possible unrest as unemployment rises, especially in export industries where factories are shutting down as global demand plummets.

EU's Barroso calls for "very clear" cut in interest rates

Q3 Engineering Employers Federation Survey: Output Balance: -11 v +15 prior (lowest reading in more than 5 yrs)
- Q3 orders balance hit the lowest level since 2005.
- Q3 export orders: -10 v +18 prior.
- UK manufacturing output seen -1.8% in 2008 and -4.1% in 2009.

HOMETRACK: UK NOV HOUSE PRICES -1.1% M/M, -8.1% Y/Y; The annual fall is the largest on record

 




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Mon 27 May 2019
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