Forex Forum Archive for 02/1/2008

Norway e.s 21:52 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
GENEVA DS
Agree whit your usd/chf,hoping for a dip nex week to lod up som positions,looks like a gift to me.

GENEVA DS 21:47 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Congrats.... ZEUS::::: KEEP YOUR USD CHF LONG if you can... do not post pfor 3 to 4 month... you will wear diamonds.... thanks for all... you are the man....

LJ BK 21:35 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:24 GMT February 1, 2008
Slovenia took onto European council presidency some a month a go after Portugal and the next presidency will be delivered to France.

That finance minister is just saying what he is told to say. There was a scandal here last week, where there was a leak from ministry of foreign affairs revealing USA were instructing them how to run EU summit and how to vote in case of Kosovo independency. One should have no illusions that such a small country has any independency regarding important international issues. Awarding presidency to such a small country is just a marketing trick, trying to show how democratic and happy family EU is. Nice w/e to all.

GENEVA DS 21:23 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
think we are headed for swiss weakness... as too much of the swiss lovers are posting... usd to EXPLODE my friends.... buy usd chf... here stop 1.0700 f0r 1.1500 and higher... selll gbpusd here for 1.4000.... stop 2.00000.... bug audcad here for 1.1000000 stop 87000..... good weekend...

GENEVA DS 21:21 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
too much quito equADOR.... NOT ENOUGH GENEVA...

Norway e.s 21:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Very intereting week,hope all are o.k.
Wish all a nice weecand!

USA BAY 21:16 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

Congrats on your usd/chf trade.

USA Zeus 20:47 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading YAHOO for next 10 mins into the close.

USA Zeus 20:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Well going to leave remaining USD/CHF longs from 1.0732 (+156) for Monday and decide from there.

Gen dk 20:13 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

quito_ecuador_valdez 20:13 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
tks perrie, out fo' da W.E. tks on behalf of all of us for all your informative posts. I'm still not sold on the possibility of a CB intervention yet...100-150 pips contra to data isn't necessarily how that'd work. Methinks intervention would involve at least a big number. Have small sell order @ 1.0924 swissy, that + existing shorts total "in" are very small.

Como Perrie 20:06 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 18:58 GMT February 1, 2008

ECB will stay on hold next week, but plenty of time to work onto It.

I'll see am now flat for the w/e

bibi

Amman wfakhoury 19:49 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:45 GMT February 1, 2008
.
=====
bought @ 19852.

Buy again for 20 or?
====
anyhow lets take the worse result and see what the solution.

its to leave the order till 19660.with out any action.
===========
the solution:
market will reverse at least till 19800.
buy another @ or above 19660 and exit both around 19800.
------
lets see the result.

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:40 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
How much intervention (if any) was there? Anyone have a clue on flow & from where? PLEASE POST. To lurk is a 1 way street. We get far too few posters I notice who are willing to divulge important not-in-news data. When I was active on GV a few years back we had real good intel into the deepest depths of FX here. Am going to try to establish my old contacts next week to contribute something other than position post stuff.

What we thought would be fundamentals:

....U.S. Headlines 2day:
"Payrolls drop for 1st time since 2003"
"Bush sees 'troubling signs' for economy".

For Jr. to ADMIT this, it's gotta be grave. 2dau goes to show you, funnymentals don't always do what you logically think. Well, they tried by 100+ pips but "something" happened. /;^>)

NYC TH 19:33 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
If gbpjpy can close above 209.50, I think it can recover very nicely next week.

KL KL 19:32 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
in short audusd .9033 sl .9044...lets see

seems like the only strong one left unchallenged

Amman wfakhoury 19:32 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 19:24 GMT February 1, 2008
======
that because you are gathering the mistakes only...while
you are challenged me since long time to give you 10 signals
and all of them were correct.
any mistake in trading had solution..and I dont marry the mistake..i am solving it immediately.

The Netherlands Purk 19:24 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Whatever you say, but after thefact working only makes me wonder if you are for real. Right now and many moons i am not.

Amman wfakhoury 19:22 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 19:10 GMT February 1, 2008
=====
I discovered my mistake that I made buy order after the
confirmation of sell level at 19866 .
so i tried to exit rapidly ..and re-enter later

Amman wfakhoury 19:12 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:45 GMT February 1, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 13:27 GMT February 1, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 13:23 GMT February 1, 2008
i will buy gbp.usd b4 data tp 19945.
=====
bought @ 19852.



Buy again for 20 or?
=====
I was too fast and exited @ 19883

The Netherlands Purk 19:10 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
New pattern: mr. Sandman from Amman wil tell us that he reversed than bought again, than had to reverse again to gain for at least 150 pips. Than he bought again.

NYC TH 19:03 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Yea things are good on my end. Shoot me an email on my gmail account when you get a chance.

I think if gbpjpy stays supported at these levels, we may get a nice rise next week or so.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:58 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 18:07 GMT February 1, 2008 Frauds./lies are death rattles of losers...a their last stand to protect themselves. At this time it'd be great to have more audits of the whole world wide financial sector to prevent huge failures in the future...smaller wobbles & rating downgrades now are better than huge deaths later.

Viewing USD's status on EUR/USD, that 1.50 mark likely a "no fly zone" ECB + BOJ & other participants (in any purported intervention) protect. For if the pair zooms past that, it's clear to proceed much higher. Personally I don't feel 1.50 is "bad" at all nor would other CBs whose countries export to USA, but I think CBs will try to prevent a snowball effect AFTER 1.50. So protecting 1.50, they've accomplished their mission. It's what's -after- 1.50 they're worried about.

YVR MAXXIM 18:54 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
carbon on sparkplug you need language brush zeus contact perry mason withlove

Lahore FM 18:46 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
NYC TH 18:32 GMT February 1, 2008
right here TH,all well on your end?what do you think of gbpjpy?

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:46 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Mkt is asleep...platform decided to work. Just placed another Swissy short minutes ago 1.0844. Previous shorts were very light (data days never get heavy $ out of me) but holding them even tho they're neg. all are around TP 1.0730.

What we ordinary traders never know is surprise inside info privy to big fish i.e. bank intervention. So far the surprise bounce on USD/CHF < 120 pips. To me it isn't even close to"disasterous". Dailies: well within normal, very happy w/ the penetration ante-bounce.

Draw trend support on 1 yr. chart & connect all 4 tops, U get a very nice neat channel in which Swissy is below middle today. Channels don't last forever,but now at least I'm not discouraged about USD selloff continuance

If some parasitic CBs want to synthetically support USD it's their privilege. But it can't last forever & gravity will eventually win. Why? Ans: nothing miraculous to happen to heal (#1) core credit landslide that can snowball in the US financial system nor (#2) give the common man income & work over night. So, more Fed cuts will most likely happen for Fed to handle the "curve", encouraging more selloffs for USD.

One of several key demands for USD was carry trades. That has completely unwound so that demand at least is gone, erroding support even more.

I say "parasitic" CBs because they don't think of long term future. If USD is synthetically supported USA's exports are synthetically stomped meaning CBs who support USD w/ interventions think only of their economies, now, this minute rather than to think "Gee, our major buyer is in trouble..let's help." Everyone knows a CB's first obligation is to it's own country - short run. Never think otherwise. As time goes on China, Russia & India (in that order) work their way to the top of the consumer heap; it'll become less & less important to support USD as time goes on. At that time if the USA econ is about where it is now, USA will enjoy excellent export opportunity with a free to move USD & excellent tourism. Everything cycles.

USA Zeus 18:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 13:27 GMT February 1, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 13:23 GMT February 1, 2008
i will buy gbp.usd b4 data tp 19945.
=====
bought @ 19852.



Buy again for 20 or?

NYC TH 18:32 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM, are you still around?

USA Zeus 18:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Well, can't say we did not warn them (the suddenly so silent one's) about the go ahead EUR/USD walk the plank barrel roll bellyflop. LOL

USA Zeus 18:09 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Feel like the luckiest trader Joe ever.
Sold some gold at the high of the day and covered at what is still the current low for the session.
Not too shabby for the Pro's vs Joe's battle.

Como Perrie 18:07 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
dc CB 18:00 GMT February 1, 2008


as It goes and if history repeats Itself somehow we are going to witness some several years of heavy overwork onto frauds - financial particularly - maybe from several countreis while It develops

Como Perrie 18:04 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
low was 904 into present

Como Perrie 18:03 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
now spot gold dancing around 907 ..maybe coupla buck higher comex

dc CB 18:00 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
WSJ story summarizes reports of potential ABK bailout.
There have been a number of reports this morning about a group of banks putting together a bailout for ABK. WSJ notes a consortium of banks is working on a possible bailout of No. 2 bond insurer ABK in a move that would provide the co with a pool of money to avoid a potential downgrade, according to people familiar with the situation. The consortium's money would be used to help Ambac avoid a downgrade. Ambac recently lost the top rating from Fitch Ratings and has been placed on watch for a possible downgrade by Moody's Investors Service. The company recently said it was in talks with "very credible" potential partners to supply needed capital. The other leading bond insurer, MBI, is not involved in this plan because it is seen to be stronger financially since it has already raised capital. Greenhill (GHL), a boutique investment bank, is working with the banks. The consortium is likely to include C, Dresdner Bank, BNP Paribas, RBS, WB, BCS and UBS.

USA Zeus 18:00 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:53 GMT February 1, 2008
Covered some gold shorts for a hefty gain @ 909.10

Comex April contracts of course . No idea what spot is/was at the time.

Como Perrie 17:55 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
to zeus previous

Como Perrie 17:54 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
I would be holding short that good short you had, partial at least. If it breaks some aournd the figure hard to see It again up there maybe

Como Perrie 17:53 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
some around previous printed eurusd low is dense of stop odas.

USA Zeus 17:53 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Covered some gold shorts for a hefty gain @ 909.10

dc CB 17:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
oops left off header.

Massachusetts brings fraud charges against Merrill Lynch - WSJ

dc CB 17:43 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
WSJ reports the Massachusetts Secretary of State is bringing fraud and misrepresentation charges against the co related to the co's sale of debt securities that collapsed in value during the credit crisis. The charges come just a day after Merrill bought back from city of Springfield, Mass., securities known as collateralized debt obligations. Merrill repurchased the debt at the same price of $13.9 mln that the co initially sold them to the city last spring. These CDOs, which are pools of debt that included subprime mortgages, had plunged in value to $1.2 mln, according to a recent Merrill account statement for Springfield. Springfield officials claimed that Merrill Lynch, which was the city's financial adviser, didn't properly inform Springfield about the risky nature of the CDOs.

Como Perrie 17:43 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Tamiflu looks innefective.

Como Perrie 17:36 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
I believe being big, or how much, is very irrilevant in current global extraordinary times of apparent biggerly.

dc CB 17:30 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
NY Regulator says number of developments related to bond insurers; can't discusses specifics on bond insurer talks - DJ

AMBAC Fincl: Group of banks looking at ways to shore up Ambac Financial Group, according to persom briefed on matter - Reuters
At least one other consortium is dealing with other bond insurers. Have no concrete time frame for solution.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The lid on the market which otherwise really wants to go back and test 12900- 130000, 1400-1425 snp.
Operating under the maxum TBTF (to big to fail), but tempered with the actuality of TBTR (to big to rescue).
imho

Como Perrie 17:22 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
U.S. inflation pressures edge up in January: ECRI

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSNAT00366420080201

mad 17:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
A future "mad" dressed in a cow costume takes part in the "Fat Thursday" carnival celebrations in Burgos, northern Spain January 31, 2008 Click here!

Have a gr8 week end Jedi.

Como Perrie 17:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:51 GMT February 1, 2008

Might be too Kevin, next week US economic calender is very poor, but market will be looking very closely the US interest rates and inflationary pressure, before the big go either ways. Earlier ERCI called for an inflarionary enviroment in US, so concerns are high as uncertainty.

mad 17:10 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Scrambling for Coal
Click here!

Makassar Alimin 16:55 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
right, now Bush is heard saying serious signs economy is weakening, take your pick

HK Kevin 16:51 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
MLT PA 16:41 GMT, on the other hand, EUR may re-test 1.43 level if being capped under 1.4860

Como Perrie 16:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Percs forget the commodity currencies. Forget carry traded - foreget all what they have been talling you in recent years. There's a switch undergoing onto markets, as too the technical indicators are giving many false signals. ref Ozzie believe is up as per proximity to asean economies and mix of usd illness. Even chf eur are at very high levels long term talking.

But am not talking the next 20 pips o.c.

MLT PA 16:41 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD: As long as 1.4620 remains intact $1.50 could trade by next week.

Pecs Andras 16:41 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 16:35 GMT February 1, 2008
And the commodity currencies are going up at the same time?
I dont get it

UK Alex 16:39 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Anyone noticed the price of coal recently?

Como Perrie 16:35 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Perc gold and commodities go down as the market reconized US economy went into recession. So pattern changed here.

Pecs Andras 16:32 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Guys, gold is down some 30 dollars today. how come it is not dragging the Aussi down?
Earlier everybody was saying Aussi was pulle dup by gold...

Como Perrie 16:32 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
See what Davos 2008 has said - article is from yesterday

http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-oprub315557732jan31,0,4366706.story

Como Perrie 16:26 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Or better Dennis if they cut too fast (some think they did already) It might couse the worst nightmare an economy would expect which is that stagflation. A recession with higher inflation. And today's moves are really strange to me as some big hands turning pfolios to protect from stagflation.

mad 16:21 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
philadelphia caba

It all depends where you live i guess
8-)

mad 16:21 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Van jv

Don t trust anyone, especially your banker 8-)

A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain.
Mark Twain

Como Perrie 16:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Tend to agree Dennis. Doubt there's room for any cut at lest in the month or two ahead, as this would kill the ability of FED to function more likely. As we know they have medium long term goals.

Van jv 16:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Comment please.
The present financial and economic crisis ,caused by fiscal and monetary manipulation, subprime etc, which infected the world have been creation and or were embraced by “financial leaders “ who certainly knew, or should have known the potential consequences of their actions, in particular in this inflationary environment. They are extremely overpaid ,getting hundred’s times more than real experts advancing fields of science and technology. And still they do not seem to be accountable, rather still “rewarded” millions dollars bonuses . Is this a new financial mafia?
Demoralizing and disgusting

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Anyone looking for another rate cut next week will probablyu be disappointed. Do you really think Bernanke and the other FOMC governors and voters were not aware of the NFP numbers? I you do believe that I have a bridge I am sure you would like to buy.

philadelphia caba 16:16 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:14 GMT
agree, not shorting ..yet..

HK Kevin 16:14 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
philadelphia caba 16:02 GMT, better stay away from AUD and NZD. If you want to short, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY may be a better choice.

philadelphia caba 16:13 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
day isn't over yet...

Como Perrie 16:11 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
If It's stagflation 1.5 is not enough

PAR 16:07 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Mad / Maybe after the rate cut we could see 1.5000 next week . I am off . Have a nice weekend .

philadelphia caba 16:02 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
kiwi is on range top...

mad 16:01 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
i guess 1.50 euro/usd won't print today then ?
Unless something "big " happen

mad 15:56 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie

The market is not Strange .
People that are trading the markets are
8-)

mad 15:55 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
dc CB 15:48 GMT February 1, 2008
Much "crushing it"

We hope as traders that it will keep going on...


PAR, they could have invested in Zimbabwe !!!! Imagine that !!!

Como Perrie 15:55 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
No idea Alimin anything might happen in current strange markets conditions. I'll just watch and see.

Makassar Alimin 15:53 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:43 GMT February 1, 2008

the usual buyers might take a day break today or profit taking after recent run from low which was quite magnificient, but i think DJI 12300-12500 level will be defended this time for a trip to 13k

jpy's action is not that encouraging for the opposite way either

PAR 15:53 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
With negative real Us interest rates MSFT had to take some action on its + $ 50 billion cash . Otherwise the cash will be eaten away by inflation as the cash of normal Us citizens .

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:52 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Well gents, THANKS to those who contributed ideas, data, facts & not simply their trades, have a fine W.E. all... hope FF can improve a bit on the "idea" mill. My platform that rhymes w/ "panda" is dead, so, a good excuse to do something constructive. Chuck out, CU Monday.

Como Perrie 15:51 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
dc CB 15:48 GMT February 1, 2008

very interesting tks

this trend volume too at one point shd reverse imo

dc CB 15:48 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Much "crushing it" went on in Jan. :)
CME CME Group reports Jan 2008 vol averaged 14.3 mln contracts per day, up 65%

Como Perrie 15:43 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 15:41 GMT February 1, 2008

Just hogs maybe, but that's not the point

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:41 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
tks perrie, see, that's my point. Junk data = revisions later after mkt jiggled & swayed. Hopping on a dead horse. Most seasoned traders don't even position on data days...ever wonder why? If they do it's very light and scalps. On data days if I position at all it's literally a series of minis...pocket change for the slot machine.

Makassar Alimin 15:41 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Perrie, is Hillary trading as well? ;)

Como Perrie 15:38 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Also a revision about construction spending released earlier has been updated.

Number is - 1.1 (negative) not positive as released

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:37 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
"Sir" Hillary with all her testosterone is also clouting Bush/republicans w/ any form of mud she can scrape off her already muddy shoes. So I'd believe her like I would a use car salesman. Not to mention names (we can't on GV lest it get outa hand), is anyone's platform OUT? Mine is...jeez. Normally very stable. A simple 'yes' would suffice.

dc CB 15:36 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
All monline ......
10:33 Moody's said expects increased losses, possible downgrades for mortgage insurers - Reuters (MTG, ABK, MBI)

Como Perrie 15:36 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
See now It comes out what from earlier.

Worries about bond insurer draggin down the SP

Como Perrie 15:30 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Clinton (Hillary) onto the wires says today datas showing economy is headed into recession.

Como Perrie 15:27 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 15:19 GMT February 1, 2008

I like It tks

Describes very well bubble attitudes.

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:25 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Hi South..hehe, dayz like this make life interesting.

OK, if you look at payrolls over at least 12 months you'll see a definite momentum. I don't give a hoot about much else other than adherance to data's trend channels. I watch those data charts just as much as FX charts...they form the "why, why daddy?" I need to G2 a sweet opportunity. The data given today can be a fake-out too..how many "revisions" can we count a month or two after the data releases that traders once "hopped on" like a dog in heat? Only belatedly to find out they hopped on a dead horse?
What short term mkt does w/ flimsey data that's inaccurate enough to have to be revized all the time, watery Michigan blabla etc. I really don't care about 'cause I'm mostly a position trader buying dips on longs or tops on shorts...rather than a pip scalper (albeit small scalps 4 fun LOL).

Como Perrie 15:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
VanJv
construction spending 1.1
ISM 50.7
Michigan 78

all off minor importance

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Longing: Definition of

1. strong, persistent desire or craving, esp. for something unattainable or distant: filled with longing for home.
2. an instance of this: a sudden longing to see old friends.
–adjective
3. having or characterized by persistent or earnest desire: a longing look.

philadelphia caba 15:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
US ECON: U of Mich Final For Jan Up 78.4
US ECON: ISM PMI Recovers to 50.7 in Jan, Well above Consensus
US ECON: Construction Spending Falls 1.1%; Bigger than Exp

USA Zeus 15:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 14:57 GMT February 1, 2008
Still core short GBP/USD from 2.1112 and hedged the pops higher (some posted as examples etc). Shorted EUR/USD earlier but only posting a few trades from time to time here. As for the system it is purely technical to identify Zeus Waves (Primary, Impulse and Reactive) LOL.

I don't trade funnymentals or macro theory ideas etc. For me all that is already baked in the cake.

Anything else please ask Jay for contact info to gladly share more and exchange ideas etc.

Have a great W/E.

Mtl JP 15:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
jv - ISM come out 50.7 vs 47.0 expected

Como Perrie 15:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
As we know from earlier some coupla top banks requested additional liquidity to cover bad assets earlier.

Van jv 15:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
US 15.00 Data please

Como Perrie 15:16 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
More likely usd money maket troublesome required some complex interventioning, if they do still know what they do o.c.

Atlanta South 15:14 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Hey Valdez......ref 14:57......your killing me. Good to see ya post. Gt

London Gooner 15:13 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
new brighton gvm 15:10 GMT February 1, 2008
any thoughts on AUD strength in the last 15 minutes?
-
Stuck between stocks and gold.

USA Zeus 15:12 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Ok- Sold 1/2 remaining USD/CHF 1.0857 and moved stop on last portion to just above B/E.


Cheers!

new brighton gvm 15:10 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
any thoughts on AUD strength in the last 15 minutes? TIA

slv sam 15:09 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
as long as euro stays over 1.4750/60 I am euro bullish even for medium term!GT

quito_ecuador_valdez 15:08 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
I think CB intervention is to test mkt to see if it "wants" to reverse or not. Intervention gives synthetic stability but if mkt "WANTS" to sell USD, it'll sell regardless. If the intervention (assuming this IS intervention????) continues to meet resistance in this case, question is when they'll give up, grow up & get over it. We saw what we thought was intervention a few years back when E/$ went to the 1.30s but this time 1.40+ whizzed by with no squaking from BOJ or ECB. Since Paulson-FED "claims" they want a strong USD it means 1 of 2 things. 1, they are lieing. 2, they want what they can't get. In both cases USD will "want" to sell., gravity is what intervention has to fight. We'll just have to sit tight & wait. I'll not add much to position past today til I see confirmation for my ideas above. Adds will be done but lightly.

Gen dk 15:00 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 14:58 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   


HK [email protected] 14:54 GMT February 1, 2008

:)) they have become communist

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:57 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
LOL definitely a "fluke" day, eh? Zeus, I've divulged why I'm shorting Swissy, can you offer please why you are longing it? What's the term of your position..swing or > 1 month? Are U mostly tech or mostly fundamental or both? Not wanting to play FF tennis, just wanna exchange ideas. I'm positioning for at least a month (likely 2) 'cause that's the minimum time lag it'll take to know if Fed cuts are doing any good. If they aren't then Fed will likely either use all the ammo to approach 0bp overnight int. or quit cutting. Comments pweeze.

HK [email protected] 14:54 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
HK [email protected] 10:31 GMT January 31, 2008
Subject:
I smell a possibility of "Central banks of the world unite" soon.

Which of course is the most unpractical thing to do.
-----------------------------------------------------------

It was clear that the USD is on a strong plunging mode. So let the C.B boys have few happy hours or days at least in stabilizing the Makts.

This market tries to defy the laws of gravity that means prices are falling up instead of down. Some one must ve in vertigo LOL.

USA Zeus 14:47 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 13:29 GMT February 1, 2008

oh hey on a TOTALY different thread. "Zeus" how's that usd/chf long working for ya?

__________________________________________________

Not bad. Thanks for asking. Bought some @ 1.0818 then again @ 1.0798. Took some gains @ 1.0836 as posted then re-loaded @ 1.0732. Took some gains as posted (wait- all of this is posted in real time so I’ll stop saying that) @ 1.0785 and again NOW @ 1.0806. Holding the rest @ B/E.

Happy Trades!

quito_ecuador_valdez 14:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Adding a little more swissy short right here after bounce to augment my short position starting @ 1.0832. This is a long term position. Short range goal = 1.0730firm for one session at least then to add more. I don't think any CB is intervening...just bounce, profit taking. Mkt will continue selling USD IMVHO. If it IS an intervention then I'll just wait it out & add more shorts when the intervention stops. Even interventions can't stop the freight train of a steadily appreciating CHF & more Fed cuts for USD. My TP protection stops enacted so am left with short term profit (approx 53 pips) and new fresh possie at this point. BTW interventions come in two forms...a lump sum "day" and a slow methodical intervention (or both). Goldcoast Martin, qindex & bc would have flow data, Marty, bc, Dr. Q..any news?

Como Perrie 14:41 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
All rite. Let's focus back onto the real market issues, this is going to be yet a long day ahead.

BA 14:39 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Why is cable the biggest looser of it all ? Was this currency really sacrificed ?

Gen dk 14:36 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 14:34 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:31 GMT February 1, 2008

Not bashing at all Perrie. Let the record speak for itself. He attacks, I defend.

We've seen it a hundred times. Attack Zeus and lose.
Nothing else needs to be said.

Happy Day!

Como Perrie 14:31 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   


USA Zeus 14:26 GMT February 1, 2008

It's just 35 pips higher, so what. A good micro scalp nothing else.
Guess Nyam was talking about risk managing et all. As you know he is primarily an analyst and a good one. So why bashing him.

I thought there to be some big hands defending there too but stood as wanna see more. Also usually am going against central banks, as except very short term in general they do fail. Even if nowadays they do hide losses so hav some more room in playing the ducks game.

PAR 14:28 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Boj intervention . This must be BOJ intervention .

USA Zeus 14:27 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
new brighton gvm 14:26 GMT February 1, 2008

Thanks. Yes. Click click.Jjust took some gains @ 1.0785

USA Zeus 14:26 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 22:15 GMT January 21, 2008
Full moon emotions to an extreme. Sure i threw you a bone Z and the peace pipe, but no more, gloves off you egotistical a-ho-le. Lets see what you got and the 'record' needs to be improved. No remorse.

____________________________________________________

Shhh. Calm down and don't punch yourself or they'll send you back to the rubber room to join Elliott.

new brighton gvm 14:26 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Zeus - nice call on the swissy - you taking profits today? level? TIA

Como Perrie 14:25 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
The market behaves as there to be problems in the usd money market at current to deliver at low rates.

London Big Blind 14:24 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
next level on the downside for eur/usd is 1.4840 (while below .78), I consider this is the ultimate point for the bulls to recover the situation as this point is on the line that support the currency all week.

Gen dk 14:22 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 14:18 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Hard to say anything to me. But look what Gross (bigger bond pfolio) is saying lower uh

Perrie

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/bill-gross/2008/01/31/

So what is the solution, according to Bill Gross? “The U.S. economy and its somewhat coupled global companion will sleepwalk for some time and a resumption of prosperity as we knew it will be dependent on reforms of monetary and fiscal policy resembling the 1930s more than our past decade.”

mad 14:10 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
The more i trade , the less i understand
8-)

“Even a thief takes ten years to learn his trade”

Japanese Proverb

Como Perrie 13:58 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:32 GMT February 1, 2008

meant FX o.c.


as was very difficutl to excpet 4.9 unempl and negative NFPs not seen in more than 4 years, which changed most expectations. But maybe fits the FED slowing of the economy to be more real than most thought as was speaking this early morn. Just bonds holders might be happy over larger term in such.

philadelphia caba 13:53 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
out of eur/gbp long..

LJ BK 13:50 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
WTI heading towards 91 ... not sure if eur will manage to stay above 1,49

PAR 13:50 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Futures Mkt Now Sees 82% Odds Of 50BP March Cut

St. Annaland Bob 13:47 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
anyway, great weekend to all ... I call it a week ... bye!

London Big Blind 13:46 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Above 1.4873 euro is high enough to print all time highs, if it doesn't today but stays above that level, this will provide extra room to the new weekly bar on monday, projections forecast 1.5075. For today, 1.4915>1.4950>1.4990 buy or sell an 30" open above or below a level to reach the next one.

PAR 13:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
If you think US unemployment is bad , watch the ISM manufacturing figures , probably even worse .

US SW 13:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
sell the euroyen...make a ton here

NYC jr 13:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
hahaha PAR

Como Perrie 13:40 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Current opening is Bonds Higher, Dollar Lower, Stocks Lower. As the market is assessing a stronger downturn of the US economy.

London NYAM 13:40 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:32 GMT February 1, 2008
After taking profits on earlier surges (as posted) it became clear to reload USD/CHF on any dips.

Happy Day!

Oh please tell us your dip of choice was it right here or right there? i need to add to my position before i miss it!
Oh did you have astop or is this going to last mmmmm a few 100 pips . should i bet 5% 50% everything!!??? I just dont know what to do?!!

PAR 13:37 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Rumor Samourai Fukui sharping his sword after the Us job decline . Unsure for attack or Harakiri . For time being USDJPY holding up extremely well .

Como Perrie 13:35 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
WASHINGTON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - U.S. employers unexpectedly cut 17,000 non-farm jobs in January, the first time in nearly 4-1/2 years that U.S. payrolls shrank as fading construction and manufacturing sectors reflected the economy's waning momentum.

PAR 13:33 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
We need another cut and we need it NOW , immediatly .

USA Zeus 13:32 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
After taking profits on earlier surges (as posted) it became clear to reload USD/CHF on any dips.

Happy Day!

Como Perrie 13:32 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Compliments Rob..superb reading

Payrolls shrink sharply

London NYAM 13:32 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
course ya did. did your followers too? oh they got wiped.
:(

USA Zeus 13:31 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Reloaded long USD/CHF 1.0732

philadelphia caba 13:31 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
dec. revision..

philadelphia caba 13:30 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
-17k

PAR 13:29 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Fed Funds Futures See 62% Odds Of 50BP Mar Cut

London NYAM 13:29 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
The great records. i wonder how they translate. i follow a system that i try to deeply understand or i follow a loud mout who understands nothing.

oh hey on a TOTALY different thread. "Zeus" how's that usd/chf long working for ya?

:)

USA Zeus 13:28 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 13:06 GMT February 1, 2008

Really no bias on the numbers since that is all they are. Will apply the Zeus Crush 'em Wave Theory to the market.

Cheers!

mad 13:28 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Now, is NOT the time 2 b confused ! 8-)

Remember , to wait is not a waste of time sometimes

GL/GT

And don t forget to breath deeply and slowly ...8-)

Amman wfakhoury 13:27 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 13:23 GMT February 1, 2008
i will buy gbp.usd b4 data tp 19945.
=====
bought @ 19852.

St. Annaland Bob 13:27 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:24 GMT February 1, 2008

the farmer's pig loves you too ... true, I leave soon ... bye!

slv sam 13:26 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 13:23 GMT /
joining you but will sell over 2!GT

USA Zeus 13:24 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
I guess for the Elliott Wave followers the record speaks for itself from none other than the modern day prophet of E Wavers- Robert Prechter, who has been out to "Conquer The Crash"[Wiley, 2002] (LOL) for some decades now.

Should change the name and call them "Contra Bob Waves" or Simply BW's for short.
Go Bob!

Como Perrie 13:24 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   

I'll see It flat...no idea what the market would do.



PS
PAR 13:19 GMT February 1, 2008

Slovenia took onto European council presidency some a month a go after Portugal and the next presidency will be delivered to France.

Amman wfakhoury 13:23 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
i will buy gbp.usd b4 data tp 19945.

mad 13:21 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Friday, February 1, 2008

8:30 AM ET. Jan Employment

Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +75K; previous +18K)

Unemployment Rate (expected 4.9%; previous 5%)

9:40 AM ET. Jan ECRI Inflation Gauge (previous 117.1)

10:00 AM ET. Dec Construction Spending (expected -0.6%; previous +0.1%)

10:00 AM ET. Jan ISM Mfg Index

Manufacturing Business Index (expected 47; previous 48.4)

10:00 AM ET. Jan Reuters/University of Michigan Survey, final

Sentiment Index End month (expected 78; previous 75.5)

Sentiment Index Mid Month (previous 80.5)

PAR 13:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Slovenia is a country with less than 2000000 people , i.e. smaller than the most known cities on this world. So why does this Bajuk starts to speak in name of the EU . A decent club has some rules .

UK Alex 13:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
PAR 13:06 GMT February 1, 2008
Is Microsoft a charitable trust for ailing search engine companies?

London NYAM 13:18 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 12:44 GMT February 1, 2008
Toronto tn 12:39 GMT February 1, 2008

Along with poor old crippled mr Elliott, William R Gallacher (the super trader) decided to trash that other mystical father of techies �freak’ WD Gann who said:

“How often have you pressed a button to turn on an electric light and found that the light did not come on? If, on examination, you found the circuit was on then you knew there was a short circuit leading to the light bulb. When this short circuit was removed the light came on. This is what happens to your mind when you are thinking wrong thoughts, such as, hatred, anger, jealousy, doubt and enmity. This produces a short circuit in your mind which affects the body and you will not be well, happy nor successful until you remove the short circuit. This you can do by right thinking and supplanting the other evil thoughts with love and good thoughts. By putting good thoughts into action and doing something good for someone else you put your mind and body in harmony and the short circuit disappears“.

Reminds me of what trotter said. Show me the big shot Gallacher’s trading record and lets talk, otherwise the 'ignant' 'is' always driving around in various cars daddy bought him. One day it all goes bye bye...

Bon Air VA Dennis 13:09 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Bajuk = Slovenian FinMin

PAR 13:06 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
B52 Ben s lowest interest policy is starting to fuel the biggest M&A boom ever seen in this world history . MSFT taking YAHOO is just the beginning . With cheap money you can buy everything . Wall Street bonusses will be HUGE HUGE .

US SW 13:06 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus

Whats your BIAS on the JOB #'s

LJ BK 12:48 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
PAR 11:05 GMT February 1, 2008
Who the **** is Bajuk ?

*DJ EU's Bajuk: Wants G7 Calls On FX To Reflect Econ Fundamentals *

Hehe, don't pay attention to it.
Re eurusd... seems to me 1.49 is the key to -1,40 or +1,50. I'm short with s/r at 1,4920. But if it goes then back below 1,49 will go short again. Since this is an important level I don't expect much sideways trading in this tight range.

USA Zeus 12:44 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Toronto tn 12:39 GMT February 1, 2008

Don't kill the messenger. It was not personal. Interesting though that 20 "Ellioticians" will have 20 different wave counts and Elliot was indeed a poor lowly and unsuccessful stock peddler.

Everything works and nothing works all at the same time.

Mumbai NS 12:42 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Think we have a c9 index at it's peak cheers!

NY Rob 12:40 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
there you go ... gbpusd is being sacrificed to make way for euro and aud...that way we still appear to have 'orderly decline' chart of usd index, everyone is happy

philadelphia caba 12:40 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
in eur/gbp long now..

Toronto tn 12:39 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 12:23 GMT February 1, 2008
Elliot thought that a bull market consisted of five peaks interrupted by five troughs.

Hard to take some thing like this seriously when even the most rudimentary elements are incorrectly described.

US SW 12:37 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
HELLO YEN

UK Alex 12:36 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
melbourne DC 12:27 GMT February 1, 2008
DC// Which banks are those?

Como Perrie 12:35 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
eurjpy also might have some 60 to 70 pips onto higher

London NYAM 12:34 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
William R Gallacher//the trading guru.
ahh yes from the ignorant suddenly light appears. Isnt referring to oneself (ones chosen guise?) in third person a sign of madness. Luckily no need to search far.

EWT requires a long a tortuous effort to understand. It is useless in useless hands.

kaching.

NY Rob 12:33 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
guys, watch audusd very solid, it has shown us where it wants to go, euro will follow soon

gbpusd, hmm this one could be the sacrificial lamb once more

melbourne DC 12:27 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
23:25 *DJ Eight Banks Form Group To Seek Bond Insurer Rescue -CNBC

Makassar Alimin 12:24 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
mad 12:19 GMT February 1, 2008

the first one might surprise some, but second, third time in a row, people are getting used to it and have umbrellas and rain coats ready, unless it is a gigantic proportion with your analogy being landslides and floods from the rain

USA Zeus 12:23 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
"There is little point in exploring the Elliot Wave Theory because it is not a theory at all, but rather the banal observation that a price chart comprises a series of peaks and troughs. Depending on the time scale you use, there can be as many peaks and troughs as you care to imagine. Elliot thought that a bull market consisted of five peaks interrupted by five troughs. Trouble is, no two people can agree on what constitutes a peak or a trough, so there are as many interpretations as there are chartists.

Much is made of Elliot's observation that all the natural phenomena are cyclical, but this is no more than a statement of the obvious, and the market is not going to reward anyone for observing the obvious...

In truth, Elliot's greatest strength is that he is no longer around to be asked a few elementary questions. Elliot was a stockbroker, and a rather unsuccessful one. To reverse his sinking fortunes, he hit upon the idea of incorporating the fibonacci numbers into his pitch. His fame is entirely posthumous, for he is reputed to have passed away in 1946, penniless, in a lunatic asylum in New Jersey..."

William R Gallacher

Amman wfakhoury 12:20 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 11:01 GMT February 1, 2008
Amman wfakhoury 08:58 GMT February 1, 2008
20 pips if we short gbp.usd now 19912

===========
exited 19894 for 18 pips in this slow and weak market
=====
second time with more pips.

mad 12:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Banks may face additional writedowns of as much as $60 billion this year from investments in commercial real estate and non-traditional residential mortgages, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said.


There is an old saying "When it rains , it pours ."

St. Annaland Bob 12:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
happy day! ... I know if EUR/USD will go above 15010 or below 14760 today

mad 12:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
ok , the (<------ woaaawww what a surprise!! ) was my input

8-)

Como Perrie 12:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
NY Rob 11:56 GMT February 1, 2008

It seem me You have a quantum mind :)

mad 12:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Sales seem to be on

* Microsoft Offers to Buy Yahoo for $44.6 Billion After Talks in 2006, 2007

* Chinalco, Alcoa Buy $14 Billion Stake in Rio, Hindering BHP Takeover Plans

* Credit Agricole Hires Advisers to Explore Societe Generale Bid, People Say

* Libya's $100 Billion Sovereign Wealth Fund Will Avoid Buying U.S. Assets (<------ woaaawww what a surprise!! )

Bloomberg front page

NY Rob 12:13 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:09 GMT February 1, 2008

my pleasure Perrie, i am just thinking it is not the right moment to establish short, just when guys rushed in to short euro at 1.45-1.46 where there was no signal at all to sell, there will be time for it but not now

USA Zeus 12:09 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
The biggest conspiracy has always been the fact that there is no conspiracy. Nobody's out to get you. Nobody gives a schitt whether you live or die. There, you feel better now?
Dennis Miller

Como Perrie 12:09 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
NY Rob 11:56 GMT February 1, 2008

but many tks for the warning. Do appreciate.

USA Zeus 12:06 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
mad 12:05 GMT February 1, 2008

Yes and Zeus shorted it there a few moments ago.

Happy Day!

mad 12:05 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
so gold did hit a new high !!!!
8-)

slv sam 12:03 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
EURO migh print magical figure 1.50 today!!GT

Como Perrie 12:01 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
I see both ways Rob... might change idea further on

Just of notice last year housing was accounting for 23 pct of the US gdp, but market as you correctly pointed about mam and dad and plumbers and beckers culture, takes time to notice It.

As BC pointed onto the chinese bubblers more intrested into wine shares than consistent economy listed companies, so appears me that Yahooooo mam and dad party. But if they do not never cache, history prooved will exit in loss.

So far have taken now and flat...this might get nervous ahead of datas.

NY Rob 11:56 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:47 GMT February 1, 2008

good luck if you believe the recession story, for me though, i see no problem going to 12900 today

UK Alex 11:54 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
caba// I suspect the offerrer at 1.9950 is no longer there.

Lagos FXStallion 11:51 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
A close above 1.9925 on the gbpusd should see us going up to an initial target of 1.9955

Como Perrie 11:51 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
tks spot...





timely issued so far :)9

Spotforex NY 11:48 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:34

Not PPT this time around...but Mr. Gates

from GVI

Yahoo in play as Microsoft proposes $31 per share

Como Perrie 11:47 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
NY Rob 11:38 GMT February 1, 2008

aproxx high just printed is key to me. I sold there

philadelphia caba 11:42 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
eur/gbp is set to break 7500 and close above today...

NY Rob 11:38 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
as long as stock market keeps the performance, usd will be under pressure, and because mums and dads investments are mostly in stocks, that is what they are going to save, who cares with strong usd anymore

Como Perrie 11:34 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
PPT at work

Auckland trotter 11:30 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Last scalp for me for the EUR/USD for this session as bed time.

Up from support level on the 1 min chart of 1.4872.

23.6% fib on 30 min chart – 1.4872
Daily I5 pivot – 1.4871

Needs to break 1.4877 level on the 1 min chart which is hitting the upper Bollinger band on the 30 min chart but RSI on the 1, 5 and 15 min charts still show some up.

Amman wfakhoury 11:25 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
slv sam 11:12 GMT February 1, 2008

agree with you

KL FS 11:23 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
gbpusd is heading towards 2.0028, 1.9950 has been the barrier but it is destined to be broken after NFP number tonight!

Como Perrie 11:23 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 11:03 GMT February 1, 2008


;))

so far I don't know, but It fits the global picture. Overall the 1.5 today might be seen imvho, but would not play much in the middle, as market explosions are very hard to handle with an intraday approach. MIght even go the other way if NFPs print 120 K and unmpleyment 4.5, but this is not what economical series are showing into present, yet the market is barely undecided short term, very clear larger one.

slv sam 11:12 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
seems euro going t spike higher this afternoon...anyone agrees? eurgbp up and usdcad down both indicators to me for strong USD decline shortly!GT

mad 11:12 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
PAR 11:09 GMT February 1, 2008

Garganas is a very good pal of Yves Mersch i think
LOL

EU theEUROqueen, could , but what are a few billions there and there ? Ask Citi, ML, SocGen and friends
8-(0

Auckland trotter 11:11 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 11:05 GMT February 1, 2008

GTGL

Como Perrie 11:09 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Yes Par ..market is already pricing another 1/2 cut from FED...problem is if there will be an economic slowdown, which apparently there is and will develop in the months ahead. But market is yet hoping for a slow one at current. For now It looks bonds are benefiting more than stocks as funds already switched interest from stock market in the less risky bonds and stable returns. In between infaltion, deflation, stagflation doubts still persist, even if we already focusing onto the last two ones as the US yield curve shows interesting larger time tendecies to economists. Very complex the whole. Think today we will have a first important check up, whatever the next FED move, but if they would cut think unemployment in US must rise yet some more than we have witnessed, else stagflation risks will dumpen Usd backed assets in an unprecedented manner imo

mad 11:09 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Andrej Bajuk ---> Slovenian Finance Minister

Slovenia!

PAR 11:09 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Imho .This guy is short the Us dollar .

*DJ ECB Garganas: To Act Preemptively On CPI Risks - Bloomberg
*DJ ECB Garganas: ECB Econ Baseline Scenario Unchanged- Bloomberg
*DJ ECB Garganas: "Very Concerned" About High Inflation-Bloomberg

EU theEUROqueen 11:08 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
mad 10:49 GMT February 1, 2008
they are lossing ..a huge losses

mad 11:06 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
i wonder who could each parity , if ever, first
aud/usd
or
usd/chf ?

London NYAM 11:05 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland trotter 10:57//totally hypothetical (hence near-pointless) but I would take the former over the latter any time. FX is fun and hopefully rewarding but peace and harmony? I guess im just a big fat hairy hippy.
This is the comming of the age.....
:p

PAR 11:05 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Who the **** is Bajuk ?

*DJ EU's Bajuk: Wants G7 Calls On FX To Reflect Econ Fundamentals *

EU theEUROqueen 11:03 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 10:07 GMT February 1, 2008

thats true ....and agree thats at one point ur targe 1,7** will print

Amman wfakhoury 11:01 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:58 GMT February 1, 2008
20 pips if we short gbp.usd now 19912

===========
exited 19894 for 18 pips in this slow and weak market

PAR 11:01 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Imho Us economic numbers will br horrible and that could lead to another 50 or even 75 bp intermeeting Fed cut by B52 Ben , hence strong Us stock futures .

Como Perrie 10:59 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
I see Trotter. A honest approach towards enviroment you guys, that most nations completely miss and/or are covering up.


http://www.stuff.co.nz/4382839a11.html

Auckland trotter 10:57 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 10:50 GMT February 1, 2008
If everything was peace and harmony then we wouldn’t have a fx market to trade.

Auckland trotter 10:50 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 10:46 GMT February 1, 2008
Not recent issues for those in NZ.

London NYAM 10:50 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland trotter 10:48 //Well we should all be very fortunate if we could live in that kind of harmony. As a way of life it is ideal, but i supect (the pessimist here) rare. take care mate.

mad 10:50 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Thx PAR

mad 10:49 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
I think we should all postulate as one team

The country's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp (CIC) is hiring external bond managers to handle capital in two fixed-income products. Click here!

I have 3 sponge stress balls on my desk and they all represent the world 8-) + my SunTsu book to read and re read over and over ...

Auckland trotter 10:48 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 10:41 GMT February 1, 2008
It all depends on what level your want to view it. On a simple level it is just basic practicality.

Como Perrie 10:46 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Think Trotter is speaking about the recent New Zealand report on pollution and progressive deterioration of drinking waters. Risks for human health etc. Not least Kiwi's are progressively disappearing.

London NYAM 10:46 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Mumbai Deepak 10:43//i knew there was something missing! lol!
see y'all later, must go hit some chimes and stimulate my chakras, so i can come back and 'crush it.'

Mumbai Deepak 10:43 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Interesting Harry…

I have seen more than a few institutional dealing room’s here having all the feng-shui approved designs and stuff such as that.

I myself have a crystal bull and a bear on my desk.

London NYAM 10:41 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
trotter//Not that i disagree, but it isn’t that kind of tautological with an optimistic tone. Very Zen though I like it. :)

mad 10:40 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
PAR, i hope it wont get to that extreme !!! 8-)

PAR 10:38 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Mad / If USDJPY should ever close below 105.00 Samourai Fukui will rather commit Harakiri than admit defeat . Could be nice videoclip.

Auckland trotter 10:35 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
As a general comment.

Utilising what you have in terms of yourself and your interaction with your environment, with you environment utilising the best it can of the wider environment it is in, gives an optimum of efficiency at whatever level you want to view it on.

Como Perrie 10:33 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
US Key data expectations from today went upon larger estimations.

NFPs are sought between 50 to 70 K while Unempleyment from 5 to 5.2 pct

mad 10:31 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
PAR,

do you believe, know, think, imagine that Fukui and his army of Japanesewives will be protecting the 106-105.75 levl today ?

mad 10:29 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
i did not KNOW that ,

mad 10:28 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
SG Harry
thx, i did not that
8-)

mad 10:28 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
I have this "funny" feeling that gold would like to reach a new record today fwiw

SG Harry 10:27 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
mad 10:11 GMT February 1, 2008

I do not believe in the hocus pocus behind it however the dealing rooms that I have worked in , in Asia, have each had a Feng Shui expert (who was paid a lot) help re align the desks (to ensure a free flow of water) and help decorate it with lions etc. What I found most amusing was that on one of his rounds, the Feng Shui man stopped at my desk and told me to be careful because usdjpy was going to be volatile, and as if that was a signal, the usdjpy implied volatilities got crushed in the ensuing months - super reverse indicator.

Having said that , the Feng Shui influenced buildings look and just feel well designed/placed.

mad 10:26 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland trotter. No i don t trade stocks

LOL

mad 10:26 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Mumbai NS + Mumbai Deepak

It is all about perception gentlemen 8-)

We have plenty of bulls in Spain

http://costablog.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/stier.jpg


London NYAM

The waves are growing ..... 8-)

Auckland trotter 10:23 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
mad 10:11 GMT February 1, 2008
“And soon, traders at the Madrid Stock Exchange will ask the world to eat from 3 pm and take a siesta”

Is this a movement you have started?

Mumbai Deepak 10:21 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
My condolences to that Bull too…LOL
I actually knew one of the protesters there, he also claimed that it brought ill fortune.

London NYAM 10:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
I think confusion and fear giving way to the old school flows arguments for interest rate differentials. as long as the equities dont dump than the dollar should weaken. usdcad looks likely to break .9869 swing low (wave 3 i believe of wave a correction of a five wave(?) sequence from the all time lows.

Mumbai NS 10:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
mm ///that bull story is indeed there and that makes me more sure of how superstitious trading communities usually are.....poor bull lol!

Como Perrie 10:14 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
India has just found 26 new bird flu human cases

mad 10:11 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Indian brokers at the Bombay Stock Exchange are calling on the authorities to bring in religious experts to change the direction of a bronze bull statue. They say the posterior of the bull, placed at the footsteps of the exchange building, points towards the traders which makes it inauspicious.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7217370.stm

And soon, traders at the Madrid Stock Exchange will ask the world to eat from 3 pm and take a siesta 8-)

Como Perrie 10:07 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
We are witnessing (near) unprecedented hitorical events. Glad we can live in such interesting and critical times. Humans have been ever destinanted to fight with crises in cycles and what will remain will be better and stronger for the future: this after a meritocracy global check-up with a huge selection from abuse of global cleverism.

EU theEUROqueen 10:06 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
it was clear thats the FED will cut rates..dr:Ben is one from the best in the CBs world..he will save the usa..just give him a chance..a weak usd its only and only way to save the usa from its falling..kepp selling the USD and let all the chines puts out from the game..

happy trade

mad 09:57 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
..meanwhile , gold is moving up again....

Como Perrie 09:56 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Moody has taken action onto Finance America deals from 2004

Auckland trotter 09:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:42 GMT February 1, 2008
Sorry, the price did so as I was posting.

PAR 09:43 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
What can happen to B-52 Ben . Lol.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SB92iQ6yf6c

Auckland trotter 09:42 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:35 GMT February 1, 2008
Should add that if the price breaks the SMA (120) on the 1min chart of 1.4873 then I would expect some pips up to form a range if the market goes flat.

Como Perrie 09:40 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Coal global demand surging about market capability to deliver

PAR 09:37 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Weaker than expected Us nfp and weaker than expected US ISM manuf cut lead to another 50 bp cut by B52 Ben ( previous known as helicopter Ben ) .

Auckland trotter 09:35 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
For the EUR/USD I have:

Daily pivot – 1.4857
Last months I7 pivot 1.4857

The price has hit a low so far today of 1.4852, with a 38.2% fib on the 30 min chart at 1.4851.

The price is has stayed above the mid Bollinger band on the 1hr chart.

SMA crosses give a general up pressure.

The 1.4861 looks an interesting level as support for now.

Looking at short set RSI on the 1 and 5 min charts using Bollinger bands and trend lines for now – scalping what is on offer.

When and if the market goes flat I am done ahead of the US non-farm payroll release.

Como Perrie 09:22 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Morn..

am reading all of the top investment banks cutting down (some heavy) the majortiy of their shares target prices.

mad 09:14 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Temptation is part of a trader's daily life
8-__)

Gen dk 09:05 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Amman wfakhoury 08:58 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
20 pips if we short gbp.usd now 19912

Syd 08:40 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
ABN Amro Could Be Involved In BCP Irregularities - Paper
)--Portuguese stock market regulator CMVM suspects banking group ABN Amro Holding NV (ABN) might be involved in offshore irregularities at Portugal's largest listed bank Millennium BCP (BCP.LB), daily Publico reports Friday, citing a letter sent by the CMVM to BCP

Amman wfakhoury 08:35 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
market will be slow and weak today ..gbp.usd and eur.jpy
will range within 100 pips.

Auckland trotter 08:33 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
mad 06:43 GMT February 1, 2008
I have the US non-farm payrolls as:

Previous – 18K
Consensus – 65K

But they should be viewed in consideration with the other figures due out at the same time.

EUR looking a bit top heavy at the moment, but we shall see.

The 1.500 level for the EUR/USD still looks too tempting for some to break.

Syd 08:30 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
MARKET TALK: What's Vulnerable Ahead Of Payrolls - RBS
Royal Bank of Scotland has a sub-consensus 44K forecast for Friday's non-farm payrolls print, although the bank says this is not sufficiently submarket to expect a significant risk shakeout. However, says with risk appetite fragile USD/JPY looks a sell, while ahead of the numbers the market will likely want to lighten-up on short-term positions, so long AUD/USD and NZD/USD look vulnerable.

Wellington, N.Z. 08:14 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   


Max McKegg’s FX Trading Forecasts for FRIDAY – FEBRUARY 1st:



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PAR 07:58 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Big spender .

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120183030007834031.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

St. Annaland Bob 07:43 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   

good morning to all! ... many special thanks to BC for his recent posts around Global View ... many thanks sir!

mad 06:54 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
* FBI Mueller - Ready to allocate more resources to subprime probes - DowJones.

* Bush"s budget for "09 to break $3 trln, a first - Wall Street Journal.

8-)

mad 06:51 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
“May the Force be with you.”

And have a gr8 day !!!

mad 06:48 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
* Moody's says some bond insurers may be unable to restore financial strength required for "AAA" rating. If capital raising ability is in doubt, some rating actions may happen sooner. AMBAC, MBIA ratings pressure increased by customer reticence and new entrants to the markets. - Reuters.

* WSJ: AAA Rating Will Stand, MBIA Says. MBIA Corp. is confident in its ability to maintain its highly coveted AAA rating and has the ability to raise more capital,.

* WSJ: Fed, ECB Differ -- for Now: Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has made a dramatic bid to rejuvenate the US economy by cutting a key interest rate. ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet, remains focused on the threat from inflation. The big question for investors is whether Europe will begin to share in U.S. economic ills and force Mr. Trichet to alter his course.

* Canadian Finmin Jim Flaherty says 2008 will be a challenging year economimically with risks on downside.

* Saudi Oil Min Ali al-Naimi says supply and demand are balanced in "sound oil market", not necessary for OPEC to hike output.

* All eyes on US NFP tonight, for some indication of how much the economy is tilting toward a Recession. Active day again for USD/JPY - which has been seeing 2-way interest out of Tokyo - no difference today - as Japanese mega-city bank bought some $500m at higher fixing, set at 106.58, aft early dip to 106.21 lows, but large Japanese custodian/ sec hses sold good amount, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY as well, pushing it to 106.24 - possibly JPY repatriation linked to eurozone coupons.

* Downside seeing good Japan bids again. Options at 106.70 noted. Cross/JPY fall a tad earlier on China stocks falls, weighed by concerns over harsh winter impact on economy.

EUR remains firm, though some focus on possible ECB rate cuts coming ahead in March, which could see pressure on EUR. Talks of interest to buy dips from Asian CBs, accounts and Sovereign names, while topside talks of Asian Cbs, China offers at 1.49, though focus on all time highs of 1.4966, and the huge 1.5000 options triggers,.

GBP above 1.99, interest still to buy on dips, talks of real and M+A related demand, with focus on Russian/ East Europeans GBP/JPY plays. Bids at 210 lows, AUD, NZD remain supported on real money demand, bids at 0.8950, 0.7850, with AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY still firm.

Nikkei -95.31pts or -0.70% at 13,497.16. JGBs steady, 10-yr yield -0.010%, 1.42%.

Crude oil a tad lower at $90.95, eye OPEC meet today.

Gold prices remain firm at $925.50/$926.50, eye all time highs.

mad 06:43 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Hello and GM FX Jedi

It is U.S. Payroll day !!!!

8-)

Payroll forecasts ranged from gains of 5,000 to 160,000.
Bllomberg

And the start of the new month

Syd 05:51 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
ltn th 03:08 GMT you are so right, called going by the book - no matter how old it may be :-)) probably the reason each country gets thrown into the boom and bust cycles we never seem to be able to rid ourselves of .. heard that ben bernanke is the same so we are in for a few year ofit

Amman wfakhoury 05:22 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
gbp.usd diff between low and high will be around 100 pips.

Wellington, N.Z. 05:00 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   



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ltn th 03:08 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd. Despite the very high quality of RBA statistical corellation research they have not twigged that they are 30+ year out of date. Their corellations are commonly invalid or reversed by changed fundamentals that can be incorporated in modern smarter models as functions of other available variables or indices. (google SOM neural-networks)
They now unashamedly admit that they caused the 90's recession that we did not have to have and have the nerve to say they want to protect us from going down the same road again.
Caution and reluctance to adopt the latest research or fad is a virtue in a CB but these "public"* service wankers take it to ridiculous extremes.

*They behave like public servants despite being owned by a consortium of commercial banks.

USA BAY 03:07 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
ltn th,

Thanks th, yes a sell after RBA may work fine.

Syd 02:52 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
ltn th 02:48 GMT hi yes my feelings also , think we are going to get the RBA squeeze :-))

ltn th 02:48 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd n Bay. FWIW and going on past performance a sell on tuesday peak could be a win regardless. If they are stupid enough to increase rates the wiser equity or income investors will desert the sinking ship after a small carry fixated spike. If they sit pat you can tp on the carry fixated dip before wiser punters look for stable investment. The least likely scenario of a cut could present danger as value chasing longer term investors bid the AUD.

NY Rob 01:53 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
no chance of usd rally, euro is stabilising above 1.48 now for a move higher IMHO

Syd 01:48 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 01:43 flat possible see how low it can got today , think we could see it up into the RBA wouldnt short into that meeting

USA BAY 01:43 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
SYD,

Are you selling any aud/usd at current levels till 90cents

Syd 01:21 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
WSJ(2/1) Credit Mkts: Subprime-Loan Losses Are Seen Expanding
A worsening outlook for the housing market led Moody's Investors Service to ratchet up its projections for losses among subprime loans yet again. The move, along with a tsunami of mortgage-debt downgrades from Standard & Poor's the day before, sent ripples through the credit markets.

Sciacca FD 01:09 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 23:16 GMT January 31, 2008
CPI Y/Y Eurozone released yesterday was 3.2%
" ECB Policy Objective: The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to 2% over the medium term." ( GVI quote )
Inflation, as Trichet has said many times, is their primary concern, 4% int rates are low by world standards.
I disagree that Trichet is a mumbler he is and always has been clear in his statements, you are probably mistaking him for his ( unfortunately deceased ) predecesor,or amateur euro politicians who are a joke and embaress themseleves on a regular basis.
As for the Euro just look at the charts and all will be revealed, if you try and second guess the FUNNYmentals, things could get quite sticky.
For what it's worth i see ( what everyone probably sees ) the 1.4960 & the 1.4360 zones as the areas to watch for direction for the first half of the year.
GT

Syd 00:54 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Subprime Hole Is Deepening At Japan Banks

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

TOKYO -- Japan's two biggest banks said losses on U.S. mortgage securities expanded sharply in the last quarter of 2007, eating into profits and providing more evidence the U.S. subprime debacle is steadily finding victims among Japanese lenders.

Mizuho Financial Group Inc., by far the hardest hit among Japanese banks, said its subprime-related loss for the nine months ended Dec. 31 more than doubled from its forecast two months ago to 345 billion yen ($3.24 billion). It warned that the damage could grow to 395 billion yen for the year ending March 31.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's No.1 lender by market capitalization and assets, said losses related to mortgage-sector turmoil came to 55 billion yen for the nine-month period. That is a steep increase from the loss of four billion yen it recorded for the half ended Sept. 30. For the full fiscal year, the loss could rise to 95 billion yen, an MUFG spokesman said.

Mizuho's net profit for the April-December period tumbled 32% from a year earlier to 393 billion yen. For the full fiscal year, it now forecasts a group net profit of 480 billion yen, down 23% from the previous year.

MUFG said net profit for April-December fell by 54% to 314 billion yen. The bank kept its forecast for full-year net unchanged at 600 billion yen, down 32% from the previous fiscal year.

Ft Lauderdale MrHuckFin 00:45 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Thank you.:-)

USA BAY 00:43 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Q1=FIRST QUATER

Ft Lauderdale MrHuckFin 00:39 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez: What does "Q1" mean please?:-)

quito_ecuador_valdez 00:19 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Some life long traders I've talked with say Q1 is the most risky trading time.

Syd 00:17 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:02 GMT they should and hope they do otherwise we are in ttwwwuble

Sydney ACC 00:02 GMT February 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd 22:46 GMT January 31, 2008
Add that to the Wooloworth's figures earlier this week and that strengthens the decision to wait at least another month until markets hopefully settle down a bit.