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Forex Forum Archive for 04/1/2008

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USA BAY 23:40 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

DR Q, Do you still see eur/gbp heading towards 0.80xx target. thank you.

Syd 23:27 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Expect AUD/USD Range 0.8950-0.9150 In Asia - NAB [Dow Jones] AUD/USD resistance currently at 0.9150 with key support around 100-day moving average of 0.8950 after fall in U.S. session on improvement in USD and global equities markets, National Australia Bank senior currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos says. Notes strong Wall Street rebound supporting investors' risk appetite with NAB risk appetite index highest since Feb. 27, climbing to 53.7% from 45.8% yesterday. Notes recovery in carry-trades on improved risk appetite has helped cushion blow for AUD/USD. However, softer RBA tones adding to expectation for rate cuts by year end. "Headwinds for the AUD from the market pricing in rate cuts have strengthened." AUD/USD last 0.9072

Melbourne Qindex 23:23 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following is still valid :-

Melbourne Qindex 09:59 GMT April 1, 2008
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.5673. It may shift a little bit lower to test 1.5548.

USA BAY 23:11 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Cairo AG,

Thanks AG, I still like eur/gbp long as I see cable to reach 1.96 and even 1.93 and I expect BOE to cut rates, so buying on dips for 80 is better I think. Thanks for the reply and good trades to you.

CAIRO AG 22:40 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

Re- Eurgbp== i also have 0.8020 on my charts as avalid target.


USA BAY 22:34 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
As for eur/gbp, seems like the 5th wave in on its wave and should end at 80xx but the problem is I am not sure if it has ended and we are on our way down or wave 5 is still on its way up.

Probably the wave expert London Nyam can share his view on this pair. Tia

USA BAY 22:23 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Looking at the eur/usd chart, it does seems like a reversal is possible, 1.5905 is probably the top of wave 3 and in that case we could see 1.5540 and then 1.49xx is a big possibility unless the NFP numbers comes out extremely bad.

USA BAY 22:03 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

Good luck Fm, and thanks for giving me the entry level. gt

Lahore FM 22:01 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Bay,guess we caught gbpcad right where we shud have...

Lahore FM 21:51 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
out of shorts from 973.50 and 966.00 now at 883.70.

Lahore FM 12:50 GMT March 4, 2008
980.80 short gold stopped at 986.00 for minus 5.20.carrying some other shorts as they are.

Lahore FM 15:18 GMT February 29, 2008
added short gold 966.00 to previous short 973.50.looking for 945 where is a position with 13/14 dolls taken on it.

USA BAY 21:50 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty,

You seems very optimistic, but usd/chf 1.25, must look at the chart again. thanks

Andorra Qwerty 21:44 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Ok guys, the 1000-pip trades are here again (I would've called them 2 days ago, but I prefer to make it a bit harder ;-))))

SELL EUR/USD for 1.47 (1.5340 break (first) leads to 1.5170, next 1.4970 and last 1.47)

BUY USD/CHF for 1.08 (1.250 break goes striaght there)

SELL EUR/GBP for at least 0.76 (0.74 better).

Enjoy the pips, forget the rest guys, it's all said and done now.

USA BAY 21:41 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore Fm,

Yes that nakes more sense, brain needs more oxygen. Thanks

Lahore FM 21:39 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Bay,i think leeway down to 2.0000 makes sense if you are looking for 2.10.

USA BAY 21:36 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

I would put 2.01, I think.

Lahore FM 21:30 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 21:12 GMT April 1, 2008
Bay,you are more than good enough for such discretionary matters as s/l and t/p.infact i would like your suggestion.what do you say?

USA BAY 21:12 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore Fm,

Thanks FM, what would the stoploss be please. Thanks again

Lahore FM 21:08 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Bay,i guess about here!

USA BAY 21:02 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM,

Hi Fm, As you said the gbp/cad is trading around the 2.0170 handle, where do you plan to long this pair. Thank you.

GVI john 20:47 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   





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SLC TG 20:42 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Regarding the request for thoughts on the gbp/jpy, I'll be watching the help forum. Many thanks!

SLC TG 20:39 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
I would be grateful for some help or thoughts on trading the gbp/jpy. Either general tips for this cross or specific thoughts for the current conditions would be appreciated. Anyone have any tips or thoughts? TIA

dc CB 19:52 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

Smoke and Mirrors : Trader Daily on a Bloomberg report about Lehman not needing more capital hits the nail on the head. If the shop "is shooting us straight on not really needing that $3 billion-plus it's planning on raising anyway from a share sale, then it means that the perception of monsters under the bed on Wall Street is now officially scarier than the reality. Banks raising money they don't need to reassure clients they probably don't want who happen to have overactive imaginations? Zounds, the world we live in." The firm's CFO noted ``We still maintain that we don't need capital, but we've realized that perception is the dominant issue in today's markets.'' NOw its $4B (that they probably don't need) (Bloomberg)

Syd 19:49 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
NZD/USD will remain under the gun of sellers today as yield interest in Kiwi fails to make comeback, looks unlikely in near term, says ANZ Bank; tips support at technical level of 0.7777 to be critical today. Notes with Kiwi briefly breaching important support of 0.7806 overnight, pair now vulnerable. Plus weak commodities and euro's steep losses overnight also weighing. "If this combination continues - and the tenor of official NZ data turns out as lead indicators suggest - the bird (Kiwi) looks set to continue riding down the elevator." DJ

Stockholm za 19:25 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

On EUR/USD -ref. the 1d 50p tracker gives channel touch parameters as
1,6027 & 1,5158 putting price at the 50% for the moment.
POC for the development range seen as 1,5385.
The march 20th pull back on low was invalid for the 1,6 target in the channel.
Thus the expansion development phase is at hand.
The long term bias will remain intact in front the 1,5158 TYK fix.
Happy trading……….

dc CB 19:23 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Slow here so here.

Housing slump comes to the Hamptons

Van jv 17:37 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
HK REVDAX 10:43 to begin.

......"the market cycles are vibrating in such a fashion that Euro/$ was scheduled to drop on April 1."
good hit, GL and TC

RIC fxq 17:13 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Is this the modern day equivalent of PAR's fabulous PPT?

USA Zeus 17:13 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 15:10 GMT April 1, 2008

Yes. We will see John T excercise his options after MER doubles.

USA Zeus 17:02 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd 16:10 GMT April 1, 2008

Nice TD combo the other day.

Stockholm za 16:59 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

Market is looking forward..
Given adjustment on balance = Friday..

Syd 16:10 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
..... Tom DeMark says oil has reached its top , its time to sell !! bloomberg live

Mirdiff Mike 15:57 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Whats the outlook for euro/cad.

new albany mb 15:28 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury--what do you see for gbp/jpy

US SW 15:20 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
bought 1 part of the here...

The Netherlands Purk 15:14 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 15:06 GMT April 1, 2008

Plan is a plan...

US SW 15:10 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:03 GMT April 1, 2008

WOW....that more than a bounce

Amman wfakhoury 15:06 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 14:55 GMT April 1, 2008
Closing half of my possies taken Yesterday in e/u.
better to close all your p ssies.

USA Zeus 15:03 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 14:59 GMT April 1, 2008

20,000+, Use MER stock popping 100 as the metric.

Lahore FM 14:59 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:12 GMT March 28, 2008
50 pip mind stops!

Lahore FM 13:08 GMT March 28, 2008
bought usdcad-sold eurusd.
eurusd was stopped for minus 50.

usdcad closed half for 150+.

US SW 14:59 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:21 GMT April 1, 2008

so you think the DJIA is going to 16000...HMMM

US SW 14:58 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
10200 looks like it in the cards for the fast will we get there....Im a looking for 10270 for a sell...GL all

The Netherlands Purk 14:55 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Closing half of my possies taken Yesterday in e/u. Waiting for more glory on the others at 15322....

Paris Hilton 14:32 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 14:31 GMT April 1, 2008
you are the only one I trust.

Amman wfakhoury 14:31 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Paris Hilton 14:27 GMT April 1, 2008
====there are many prof here..let give the opport. to post

Gen dk 14:30 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
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dc CB 14:30 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Zeus. :)

greg Castellon 14:29 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
May we consider a doble top and an macd divergence in eur/usd daily chart and in this case which is the target price????? Could be 1.5340 :-)

Paris Hilton 14:27 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 14:26 GMT April 1, 2008
great job. please keep sharing if you found any opp.

Amman wfakhoury 14:26 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 14:12 GMT April 1, 2008
Paris Hilton 14:03 GMT April 1, 2008
in sell now sold @19805 tp 19775 r/l 19817
excited 19775

USA Zeus 14:22 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Dollar bears getting racked, stuffed and mounted.

USA Zeus 14:21 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Yes USD/JPY 101 then before you know it 102, 103, 105 107.77, 110+

US SW 14:19 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
looking for 10160 on the usdyen.......

USA Zeus 14:18 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
It's all part of the quadratic Value at Risk (VaR).

MLT PA 14:15 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
MLT PA 11:42 GMT March 26, 2008

The eur/usd has turned bullish again and as long as 1.5445 holds then expect further upside pressure. If planning to sell the pair then try selling between 1.5850-80 Stop 1.5935. Back this up with your own research. GL.

USA Zeus 14:14 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
sgp cc 13:46 GMT April 1, 2008

I did not say i was going short now. I sold them at the peak as previously mentioned. Cheers! :-)


Amman wfakhoury 14:12 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Paris Hilton 14:03 GMT April 1, 2008
in sell now sold @19805 tp 19775 r/l 19817

Paris Hilton 14:03 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 13:54 GMT April 1, 2008
welcome back, any latest view of GBP?

Amman wfakhoury 13:54 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 13:58 GMT March 26, 2008
SGP Rych 13:46 GMT March 26, 2008
Amman wfakhoury

Sir , can share your view on the E/U . Thks
---sure trade part will touch again 15610

it took more little time as we expect to turn after 36 hours.

sgp cc 13:46 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
zeus - honestly think gold and oil are good buys at current levels for decent medium to long-term gains. Gold is a much thinner market than Euro-Fx... so movements tend to be exaggerated. It is what it is... if you want to sell gold here.. go ahead... I'm buying :)

USA Zeus 13:30 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:26 GMT March 31, 2008
Shake and bake- it's all part of the plan. Don't look left when you should be focused on the right

USA Zeus 15:55 GMT March 27, 2008
Ebb and flow To the USD the markets will go.

Ahh Sublime.

USA Zeus 13:28 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Crude oil continues the drill down with sharper bits.....99.77 now.

Toronto tn 13:27 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Haifa ac 11:15 GMT April 1, 2008

In self-loathing reflexivity, Soros deep down hates free-market capitalism. Now that's he's gotten his billions out of it, he wants to convert the rest of us who aren't billionaires into human rights obsessed little socialist peons. I wish he'd shut up already.

Mtl JP 13:18 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
madrid 12:03 / so all one needs is to sell 10 million teddy bears to make one's yr-end bonus.

USA Zeus 13:16 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Gold off 23.50. And some thought it was a stable currency LOL.
Remember gold is just a commodity. Some people spend their money on it and others use it to make money.

Happy day!

FF-USA JC 13:05 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Still short AUD/USD from .9124 added USD/CAD long at 1.0271, USD/CHF long 1.0051 and EUR/USD short from 15652. GT

USA Zeus 13:04 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
quadratic incremental component VaR held the USD line well.

san diego bobl 12:50 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
shanghai bc said in early March post; I planned to hit on the subject again today, but the broad market has cycle classes that have survived the course of history. They are broken into major assets versus physical assets. A Russian economic model was fashioned after the creator's name in early 1900's (spelling?), his name being Konderief (phonetic). Basically, he identified the historical 60 yr. cycle, and further broke down stages of asset classes, including a more dominant 20-24 yr. physical asset (commodities) cycle of extreme movement. The value of currencies is a product of the bigger picture of supply/demand of asset classes.

If you suscribe at all to this theoredical thinking, then we are still in a commodity bull cycle, albeit with the most challenging of times in cycle dynamics. Time will tell if it is "different" this time, ad naseum re: the internet boom/ bust cycle. I doubt it.

Bottom line, for the greatest portion of retail traders... these are good times to let the markets figure it out, government this or that, banks blah blah blah. Temptation should give way
to sanity... and let things unfold. Most retail guys are gonna take e la hit in here now ... it's always the little guy who suffers most.

singapore td 12:45 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
i think it is worth betting gbpusd will form a triangle with today's bar forming a doji, so go long now at 1.9835, with stop under today's low targetting high 1.99-2.0038

ABHA FXS 12:31 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
SELL GBPJPY 199.74 STOP Above 200.74 Tp 195.74 and Lower

melbourne DC 12:16 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
High yielders AUS n UK similair political/monetary opinion:
govt work to keep inflation low to keep rates low. the economics of course not the same.

madrid 12:03 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
I know this is April fool's day,so i could not resist ...8-)O

Sydney's radio 2UE reported the Pope would conduct a special gay and lesbian mass when he visits for World Youth Day, and the Catholic Church was considering entering a float in next year's mardi gras.


NEW YORK (Dow Jones) -- This is no joke. On e-Bay you can buy a new Bear Stearns Cos. golf shoe tote bag for $32, a Bear Stearns T-shirt for $20, or a hat for $51. Fleece blankets are going for $20, a pewter statue of the investment bank's tower on Madison Avenue is $172, and a Bear Stearns teddy bear is $24.50.
Happy April Fools day!

Syd 11:57 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Haifa ac 11:15 so very true

Syd 11:48 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Deutsche Postbank AG (DPB.XE) said Tuesday it can'tevade the impact of the financial crisis in the first quarter of 2008.

"The situation on the capital market has led to value fluctuations in several asset classes," Postbank spokesman Joachim Strunk told Dow Jones Newswires.
Strunk said further financial details aren't available at this point.

İstanbul Asia 11:30 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Mr Quindex ,
Will you please share your comments on AUD/USD ?
It seems to go down till 0,88 first target?
thnks frd

Haifa ac 11:15 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd 09:31 GMT April 1, 2008
George Soros warns 'superboom' is over//

George must be reading GVI forums (clandestinely?!)
Here is bc from the other side:

shanghai bc 03:11 GMT March 9, 2008
sofia kaprikorn 19:14 GMT March 8, 2008

Everything in this universe has a cycle..Same for the assets markets..Same for the nations and the political systems..In financial markets,it is a cycle from hard assets to paper assets and vice versa..Chinese have kept the record of those cycles for the last several thousand years and found repeating cycles for everything too..

We had the so called new tech-era of 1980-2000 with paper assets going to the roof while hard assets lagged behind..Since the bubble of the paper assets burst in 2000,it is the cycle of hard assets going to the roof while the paper assets lag behind..It has always been the cycle between these two assets even in ancient China for several thousand years....Chinese divided 60 years as a grand cycle with 30 years as the cycle dividing the up and down of that cycle..

Nobee 11:10 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
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Syd 11:03 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
S&P Cuts UBS Rating Following More Write-Downs
Standard & Poor's cut its credit rating on Swiss banking giant UBS AG (UBS) by one notch hours after the company announced another $19 billion in write-downs on illiquid real estate assets.
Credit analyst Michael Barnes said, "The negative outlook is in line with those on most other major banks with large investment-banking operations, and reflects the potential for a more precipitous decline in profitability from capital market activities during the next few quarters."

BlueMan.... 10:58 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Don't get frustrated in your trading, trade with Time and not Price!!!!

Example: look to sell
usdjpy by 11pm EST-new york time. Stops should be placed 100pips from entry. TP: 100 or 150pips The choice is yours :)...

BlueMan.... 10:52 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Don't get frustrated in your trading, trade with Time and not Price!!!!

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Ldn 10:44 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
zug, switzerland How to Analysis 10:40 GMT April 1, 2008
Wow..that was the best advice i have had in 20 years of trading..i must check you out and give you a few million to trade for me..but have to give some more advice

HK REVDAX 10:43 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:30 GMT March 31, 2008
Hi...Long time no see.

I did not realize Paulson's speech is about to begin.

At any rate, regardless of whoever speech, the market cycles are vibrating in such a fashion that Euro/$ was scheduled to drop on April 1. But of course various factors can hasten its coming by one day or today.

Syd 10:04 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Atlanta South , I think so also , he may be getting on a little but still has the touch GT

Atlanta South 10:01 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Ref 09:31/I would say Soros is on the money with that one. NO pun intended. Thanks for yours always informative post.

Melbourne Qindex 09:59 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.5673. It may shift a little bit lower to test 1.5548.

Gen dk 09:41 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 09:35 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:34 you also many thanks for your great moves GT

Lahore FM 09:34 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd 09:31 GMT April 1, 2008

Thanx Syd,for your tireless contibutions!

madrid 09:34 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
This is really funny 8-)O

London, April 1, 2008 Satirical magazine Private Eye has launched the Curse of Lord Gnome Fund. The fund launches with £200m, targeting annualised returns of 20% with volatility between 8% and 10%.

The fund will follow four key strategies: aggressive shorting of any company that has threatened or has sued the magazine, an aggressive activist strategy particularly targeting media holdings within the Murdoch empire, foreign exchange arbitrage targeting the US dollar vs the rest of the world and a hybrid private equity looking at opportunities in alcohol and weapons of mass destruction.!

Syd 09:31 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
George Soros warns 'superboom' is over
By Edmund Conway

The world economy is at the end of a "super-boom" in asset prices and debt which has lasted since the end of the Second World War, billionaire investor George Soros has warned.
Speaking in a BBC documentary, Mr Soros said that at the heart of the financial crisis was the culmination of a 60-year-old boom in leverage, the result of which will be a far deeper downturn than many expect.

Syd 09:26 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
JPY Crosses Are A Sell On Rallies - BarCap

April kicks off with risk reduction and commodities, EM currencies and the carry complex all coming under pressure, says Barclays Capital. Of these, the carry story is potentially the most important, with risks of substantial JPY strength after pretty much one-way traffic for the past nine years, says BarCap. Bank says NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and BRL/JPY all closed out March below their respective 24-month averages, which suggests ongoing unwinds. Bank says although not yet at the panic selling stage, NZD/JPY below 76.70 will cause it to ratchet up the warnings of JPY strength. Until then, JPY crosses are a sell on rallies.

Syd 08:52 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Signals suggest commodity bull run is fading
By Simon Denham, Head of Capital Spreads
Has the big run on commodities come to an end? Big falls in oil, silver and gold over the past few days come after all three failed to regain their highs after the initial sell off of a few weeks ago.For the first time in quite a while, the downside looks more probable than the up and the attraction of precious metal ‘protection’ at these prices does not now seem quite so secure
With the dollar having quickly reached quite extreme levels (rather than engaging in a long slow decline), the potential for further currency induced strength in the dollar denominated commodities has been somewhat reduced. For the Europeans or Japanese, the price of gold, for instance, equates to only around $730 ion local currency if you take into account the falls in the greenback.

Gen dk 08:42 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
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eu kaprikorn 08:36 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
0835 GMT [Dow Jones] The stabilization in the UK's manufacturing sector is unlikely to stop the Bank of England from cutting its key interest rate soon, since the central bank remains convinced the credit crunch will slow growth significantly this year. The manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 51.3, a stronger reading than the fall to 51.0 forecast by economists, but sill pointing to a sector that is expanding only modestly despite the positive impact a weaker pound is likely to have on exports.

Syd 08:30 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Negative sentiment toward AUD and NZD is building, says Royal Bank of Scotland. Confidence indicators have softened and worries over the impact of tightening credit conditions and high interest rates on an indebted consumer have risen says the bank. AUD has the added negative of a more dovish-than-expected RBA statement. Bank says sell AUD and NZD against the USD. AUD/USD currently trades at 0.9087, NZD/USD at 0.7824.

Syd 08:24 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
If an unknown broker can lend $1b, how much more is out there?
Laurie Emini was barely known, even in the business world, outside a relatively small circle of contacts. That was until late last week.Now he is all over the front pages of every newspaper in the country and he's considered a flight risk, with his passport confiscated, as authorities investigate a potential shortfall estimated at $100 million in the accounts of the Melbourne stockbroker Opes.
That's not the half of it. The more pressing matter is the $1.15 billion in loans over shares - margin loans - taken out by 1200 investors who could find themselves tied up in the courts for years to come.
It borrowed the money from the ANZ Banking Group and Merrill Lynch and on-lent it to retail investors who, in general, were raising cash to buy more shares. In many cases, they were company directors raising cash to exercise options over shares.
So Opes's clients, unlike those taking margin loans directly from a major bank, have exposed themselves to an extra layer of risk.
Opes has been in trouble for weeks. Like Tricom, many of its clients could not stump up the cash to maintain the value of their collateral as the value of their share portfolios plummeted.
That put Opes under pressure. And once that happened, ANZ and Merrill Lynch seized control of the shares and began selling into the market.


Jerusalem ML 08:20 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

This is the moment...Euro downfall (correction) imminent
I am shorting EZ until low 50's , chance for reaching 1.50 in april
Gold looks set to test 880 soon , tgt 850


Syd 08:20 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY let see ...GT

Syd 08:19 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Property investor Rubicon Japan Trust, owned by troubled investment firm Allco Finance Group, said that National Australia Bank had agreed to extend a $60 million loan facility
Last month, Rubicon Japan shares had tumbled after it said it might not be able to meet a separate margin call from NAB, though it did subsequently meet that call.
Rubicon Japan is one of three trusts managed by Rubicon Holdings, which is owned by embattled investment fund Allco.
Allco is one of several high-profile Australian victims of the global credit squeeze, and has been forced to sell off assets as it tries to repay debt. It has lost 95% of its value since last May and three of its executive directors have stepped down.Rubicon Japan said that the net proceeds from the asset sales would be used to reduce the outstanding loans due to NAB, with at least $10 million to be repaid by September 2008. It also said that if it fails to get an extension to repay two other loans totalling 5.6 billion yen ($US56.1 million) to creditors Credit Suisse and Japan's Shinsei Bank by May, it could default.Allco bought the 80% of Rubicon Holdings it did not already own last October for $276 million, a price UBS analysts described as lofty considering it was 29 times fiscal 2008 earnings.Rubicon Japan trust has stakes in 22 Japanese commercial properties with more than 300 tenants. Its holdings are valued at about 115 billion yen, according to its Web site.The two other Rubicon trusts, Rubicon Europe Trust Group and Rubicon America Trust, have won reprieves under margin calls due to Credit Suisse and have renegotiated debt repayments.

tokyo ginko 08:18 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
equities due for a breakout..GT all

USA BAY 08:13 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

I think we will test 9050 and then 9035 on ozi

Syd 08:11 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

AUDUSD formed a short term cycle top at 0.9252

Quito Valdez 08:07 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Agree Madrid, range trading & unpredictable at that..just random range hack. Luck will win & luck isn't something I base family money on. Luck will lose also..point driven home. Charts won't particularly follow fundamentals I don't think & "they've" said with a fat cat wave of the cigar that EUR was "oversold" 400-500 pips ago, so that sort of BSblabla isn't useful either. What the mkt considers as oversold or undersold is what is important and even the mkt doesn't know what it wants to do. Moving averages, stochs, Fibs...all that tech can be laid aside when it's my money on line, when money/public/mkt is in panic.

Syd 08:06 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Euro Zone Mar Mfg PMI 52.0; Points To Low Growth

madrid 08:01 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
By the way Iceland was in the news lately wasn t it ?


Click here!

madrid 07:59 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Hola Quito Valdez

What describe it best at the moment IMHO is "Expect the Unexpected."


On a day trading Basis, it will gr8 as volatility will be high.

On the long term , i am useless, but I believe Shangai BC said that the euro/usd will be moving between 1.54-1.58 for the next few weeks or so and i tend to agree. But then again....


madrid 07:56 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
what does UBS stand for ? For this maybe ? 8-)!

Syd 07:55 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
MOSCOW (AFP)--Russia warned Tuesday that Ukraine joining NATO would have a negative impact on European security and create a "deep crisis" in relations between Moscow and Kiev, news agencies reported.

Syd 07:54 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Barclays Capital says its fair value models show that EUR is overvalued against USD and GBP and, to a lesser degree, against SEK too. Bank says this is further "compelling evidence" of a EUR overshoot, consistent with its view that it's likely to fall over the next three months. EUR now trades at $1.5667.

Quito Valdez 07:53 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
I think we'll see some unpredictable wild action as money tries to find a safe place, then exits that for another and for another etc.. One day for example CHF will be sold because of the writedowns @ UBS, then perhaps news about CS, next week EUR will be doused as different economic and investment nightmares unfold in EZ, municipalities' investments rot. Then there's the scam Lehman deal that will effect more suckers other cncy's will be pounded...Then where? XAU? Yen sees strength possibly a couple hundred pips south to spt line...

This is a very good time to manage your investment portfolio to minimize risk and stay out of FX for the time being.

bris 07:50 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
who / what is EZ ?
do you mean EU ?

Jkt Rick 07:49 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Jkt rick 17:31 GMT March 31, 2008
EURO/usd 1.5810 hello EURO REACHED THE HIGH OF 1.5897 20 pips short of target and sold of strong.

It seems that the downturn towards 1.54 will begin soon. watch out.

*Euro (market rate 1.5650) has fallen down nicely..but charts report a correction to 1.5750*

Quito Valdez 07:40 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
I would say that EZ will be hit at least as hard as USA, meaning I'd expect MORE in this credit trainwreck. That will further impact USA of course as it will adversely affect its exports. I dunno where all this will end but it's going to get uglier I believe before it starts to heal and EZ will be last to heal. Dunno about Asia...assume they'll lag also, Japan especially. Just my opinion, counter views welcome as always.

Syd 07:39 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Risk Nerves Intensify -UBS
0736 GMT [Dow Jones] UBS's risk index stands at 1.53 Tuesday, from 1.48 Monday, indicating strong and growing risk aversion. The move is mainly down to higher currency market volatility, bank says. Higher risk aversion is broadly supportive for CHF, JPY, and a drag on NZD, AUD

madrid 07:33 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY, because of this in my imagination

Men at work!


Syd 07:31 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
European Banks Subprime Write-Downs Top $68B

The following is a list of subprime-related write-downs made by European banks up to April 1. The banks have taken over $68 billion of charges and write-downs due to the crisis so far.

USA BAY 07:31 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

Why would women glow in Forex, lol???

madrid 07:29 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Zug 07:17 GMT April 1, 2008

Welcome to the FOREX Pleasure land, where fortune are made and lost on a daily basis ..


Rule number 1, don t trust anybody !

Rule number 2, if someone says "trust me", "it must", "it is a given", " weare for a strong dollar policy" etc, run away fast from them

Rule number 3, do your onw work and due diligence, don t follow blindly.

Rule number 4, trading forex is simple, but it ain't easy !

Apart from that you should be ok. BE PATIENT.


Still, Forex is a place where
" ...
Where women glow and men plunder?

US SW 06:41 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
euroyen should show further weakness...long squeeze

Syd 06:36 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
UBS AG (UBS) said Tuesday its board considered but ultimately dismissed different options, including splitting the bank up, as major losses from subprime securities racked the Swiss bank.

Syd 06:31 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
CHARTING ASIA DJ The euro fell sharply against the U.S. dollar Tuesday after Swiss banking giant UBS AG announced a huge quarterly loss. Charts indicate that the currency pair may drop further to $1.5582 in the near term.
UBS unveiled a first-quarter loss of CHF12 billion, which the bank said was prompted by about $19 billion in write-downs in illiquid real estate assets.
The news increased market fears of huge asset write-downs by other financial institutions affected by the U.S. sub-prime mortgage mess.
The euro extended its losses on the report, having already retreated sharply overnight from near the US$1.5905 record high hit March 17 on falling oil prices and players taking profits on long euro positions.
At 0558 GMT Tuesday, the euro was quoted at $1.5735.
The euro/dollar daily chart has a bearish tinge after a bearish shooting-star candlestick reversal pattern was completed overnight.
The daily Moving Average Convergence/Divergence, or MACD, indicator is also turning bearish. In addition, the daily stochastic measure has switched to bearish mode at the oversold level, which suggests that Monday's high of $1.5897 may be the euro's short-term top.
The immediate target for this near-term bearish euro/dollar view is at Wednesday's low of $1.5582.
A fall below $1.5582 would target the uptrend support line from the Feb. 20 low of $1.4613, coming in now at $1.5535.

eu kaprikorn 06:25 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Denver AL

hi AL - if you see this - just got struck with the AB=CD measured move in GBPUSD

first leg was ~~2.0400 -- 1.9700 (~700 p) >>

now we have the next leg ~2.0200 >> ~1.9550

certainly all the knowledge must be credited to you!!

Syd 06:13 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
BOTH debts and interest rates continue to rise, many small family businesses face ruin if they don't get early advice, said Hall Chadwick's Brent Kijurina.A partner in insolvency and business recovery at the Sydney accountancy firm, Mr Kijurina fears that many family businesses are borrowing beyond their means to keep their operations a going concern. As the housing market slumps, many people are losing equity in their homes,'' he said. "For a struggling business, this can mean turning 'off the tap' unless funds to prop up the business are sourced from other means.'' By struggling, they run the risk of falling deeper in debt and eventually losing their businesses. Instead, they should seek advice as soon as they sense there is a difficulty, he said.
"Often mum and dad directors are creditors,'' Mr Kijurina said.
"I have seen mum and dad directors being owed significant sums. "Traditionally such funds have come from equity in residential property.'' He predicted a significant rise in insolvencies this year because of the tightening of the property market and credit. "With small businesses owing $7 billion to the tax office, the situation looks set to get worse,'' he said. Credit insurer Atradius said the US subprime crisis was also going to adversely affect small businesses in Australia. "New home sales in the US had their biggest drop ever with the latest figures showing a 26 per cent drop in 2007,'' said Atradius managing director David Huey. "Now more than ever, we know what happens in the US affects our economy too."While this may not affect SMEs directly, it can impact on their customers' ability to pay and that can have a big impact on a business.'' Mr Kijurina said many small businesses were too proud to seek early advice, choosing to borrow instead with sometimes dire consequences.

"Sometimes when people come to us for advice it is too late and liquidation is the only option,'' he said. Herald

madrid 06:04 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Have a gr8 day !!!


If you don't get everything you want, think of the things you don't get that you don't want. ~Oscar Wilde

Attitude is a little thing that makes a big difference. ~Winston Churchill

US SW 06:03 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
sill buying eurocad...!!! a must here IMO

madrid 06:02 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
* BoJ March Tankan : Big Manufacturers DI falls from +19 to +11, biggest drop in 3 years and weakest since Q4 2003. Big non-manufacturers DI falls from +16 to +12, vs expectation of +11. (FORECAST: The Tankan confirms recession risk.)

* Big manufacturers see USD/JPY averaging 109.21 (vs 99.99 today) for FY08/09. Japan firms see FY08/09 Capex at -1.6%y/y.

* RBA keeps Cash Rate unchanged at 7.25%. (Confirms shift to neutral bias). RBA says overall tightening in financial markets has been substantial. Monetary policy is appropriate for the time being. Inflation remains high, but should decline.

* Econs Min Prof Hiroko Ota says she is very worried about falls in capex... JPY rise and rising raw material prices seen behind the worsening big manufacturer sentiment.

* MoF Fukushiro Nukaga says BoJ Tankan underscores Government view that the economy is hitting a soft patch.

* Chief Govt spokesman Nobutaka Machimura: no change in assessment recovery is stalling. Japan to decide economic strategy on April 4. Govt wants to choose new BoJ Gov soon.

* BoF/ ECB Erkki Likanen, in Finnish MTV3 TV, reiterates ECB main objective is to keep prices stable. Price risks on upside, while growth risks to the downside. There's great uncertainty in the financial markets. Higher credit costs affect growth. - BBG.

* FT: UBS set for further writedowns. UBS is poised to reveal further writedowns of up to $18bn and seek a capital increase of about SFr13bn ($13.1bn) just weeks after shareholders approved a similar-sized injection from outside investors.

* FT: Lehman Brothers on Monday said it would sell at least $3bn worth of convertible preferred shares to help bolster its balance sheet and dispel rumours that it could face capital problems similar to those that sank Bear Stearns.

* FT Editorial: Looming dangers for the dollar.

* Day 1, Start of the New Japan Fiscal Year 2008/09 today.

* USD/JPY rose on back of Japanese demand, and CTAs Cross/JPY, EUR/JPY buying. Expectation of new FY08/09 overseas investment, toushin, Uridashi seen supporting USD/JPY, Cross/JPY. More stable stock markets despite UBS news also supporting Cross/JPY, pushing it to 100.01 highs.

* UBS Q1 CHF12 bln net loss, eyeing CHF15 bln rights issue - DowJones.

EUR at 1.5770-80, talks of Asian offers above 1.5800 handle, though real money, probably sovereign bids at 1.5750, stops below 1.5740.

Cable remains heavy, with EUR/GBP still looking to test new highs on BoE rate views.

Nikkei +1.56%, +195.38pts at 12,720.92 on first day of FY08/09. JGBs sharply lower, 10-yr yield +0.75%, 1.350%.

Crude steady at $101.68 after o/n $4 fall.

Gold a tad heavy, at $917.00/918.00.

USA BAY 06:01 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Thanks a lot FM. Good trades to you.

Lahore FM 05:58 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
chf is the unlikely victim this once with the ubs writedowna nd loss news.

madrid 05:58 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Hello and gm FX Jedi


US SW 05:57 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 05:34 GMT April 1, 2008

this one is getting interesting...looks like shorts are going to be in a world of pain @ 80....

Lahore FM 05:57 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Bay,shorts at 2.0100 can work for 1.9800/1.9850.still as we see it is not a carry environment and eurnzd has been in strong uptrend it would require caution.eur has just about set correcting crosses so that can be helpful for eurnzd short.

Bandung Frankie 05:54 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
sensored ??? ... wow oceh in my blogspot ....
oceh ...

Bandung Frankie 05:52 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Hallo .... AUDUSD in daily chart is try to make Three Falling Peak patern ... see the chart ... in my blog .... www.frankie.prasetio.censored
thankyou .... Good Luck / Good Trade.

Syd 05:51 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
For those who didnt see the report yesterday quite an eye opener !!!

Reporter Stephen Long surveys the human wreckage of the household debt crunch and looks at the key players and tactics behind recent aggressive lending. Long’s disturbing report also throws doubt over the data that banks rely on to make crucial lending decisions.
Many Australians have gone deep into the red to fund a newfound love affair with the stock market. The amount they have borrowed to buy shares now equals the total they have racked up in credit card debt. And as Four Corners discovers, when the market plunges and a margin call comes, some people are just reaching for the plastic

Geneva 05:50 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Much more heavy losses to come in many european banks.

USA BAY 05:47 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM,

Hi Fm, can you comment on eur/nzd pls as I guess you are one of the few people who trade eur/nzd. thank you

Lahore FM 05:44 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

Makassar Alimin 05:42 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
hourly 200 and 4-hourly 50 ema are the main attractor for euro at the moment

Lahore FM 05:42 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
the latest on UBS is shaking up the market:


Syd 05:40 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD drops to 1-week low of 0.9091, down from early-Asia session high of 0.9148. Slump follows further comments by RBA indicating that interest rates are on hold for now with markets factoring in an increased likelihood that next move in rates will be down. Survey of 13 economists showed 9 expecting rates to be left on hold at next policy meeting May 6. Credit Suisse analysis publish Tuesday showed markets pricing in 56 bps of rate cut over the next 12 months. Evidence that domestic demand in Australia will slow in response to recent policy tightening, local credit crisis effects may further contribute to some AUD weakness near term dj

US SW 05:36 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
downward pressure euroyen here!!!

US SW 05:34 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
eurogpbp failed to dropped...I bought back even....

Syd 05:33 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Aussie Dollar to Ease
With the Aussie dollar expected to ease against the U.S. dollar, Simon Warner, head of macro markets at AMP Capital and Josh Williamson, senior strategist at TD Securities, discuss the future of the currency, with CNBC's Amanda Drury.

US SW 05:33 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 05:16 GMT April 1, 2008

Data for znd didn't look that great, so at best I see some sideways action if the US can manage to stay upp..GL

Syd 05:33 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Australia's Swan:Concern About Lack Of Mtge Broker Regulation
Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan said Tuesday that the government has some concerns about the lack of regulation of the mortgage broking industry in Australia.

Syd 05:32 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD remains on track for broader move down to March 20 low of 0.8960, Suncorp treasury analyst Peter Pontikis says. But expect pair to remain in 0.9100-0.9150 range in Asia trading today. Notes fair value range remains 0.8500-0.9000 with any rise above range "expensive and non-sustainable" beyond one-to-two week timeframe. "This current move back down is a return to 'normal' levels as opposed to just seen optimistic ones."
Australian economy appears to be approaching, or may have reached a 'tipping point', where the impact of tighter financial conditions outweighs stimulus coming from higher commodity prices, says strategists at ANZ Bank. Notes evidence of slowdown in economy most evident in business, consumer confidence, though softer retail sales in January adds to the mix. Expects annual final demand to slow from 5.7% in December quarter to 3.25% through 2008, 2.5% through 2009. Says real GDP will ease from 3.9% in December quarter to around 2.5% through 2008, 2009. DJ

US SW 05:22 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Jerusalem ML 05:19 GMT April 1, 2008

no, I hightly doubt it, but you could be right, though I highlt doubt it... :)

Jerusalem ML 05:19 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Euro on the way to low 50's

1.52 my bet between now and April 15th

good luck

US SW 05:17 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
eurocad under pressure @ the moment f/eurousd...this will be brief IMO

USA BAY 05:16 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Anyone with a view on eur/nzd. Thanks.

US SW 05:14 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 05:09 GMT April 1, 2008

first target

USA BAY 05:09 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   

eur/cad 1.6320??

US SW 05:04 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
bought eurocad 16320

US SW 05:03 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
sold eurgbp

Calcutta Vikram 04:44 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
OK. The one to do with Inflation is the Phillip Curve, maybe?

USA BAY 04:43 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
J curve as far as I know it relates currecny depreciation and its impact on the trade deficit, I think.

Calcutta Vikram 04:40 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
J Curve? What is that? Seriously. Please tell me, for I would like to know. Is it something to do with Inflation?

toronto Dr Unken Katt 04:09 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 03:53

interesing link , do u have the access to the J-curve perhaps?


Calcutta Vikram 03:53 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
US stocks opened quiet for the week. The DJIA closed 46.49 points (0.38%) higher at 12262.89. The Nasdaq closed 17.92 points (0.79%) higher at 2279.10. The Dow is trading sideways within a wide range of 11700-12800, as can be seen on

Asian stocks are mixed, ranging from –0.71% to +1.67%. Shanghai is, again, the biggest loser, on fears that China will be hit hard by US recession.

Yesterday, the Sensex had tanked 727 points, but we think it is essentially ranged sideways between 14500-16500. Take a look at

Gold has once again retraced towards the seemingly strong Support near 915-10 on the trendline joining the lows of 828.30 (28-Dec), 904.70 (20-Mar), 906.20 (24-Mar). Gold bounced from 912.00 yesterday, however the trendline is still very close to being tested in the day. To know how long the trendline may hold… write to us at [email protected] and take a free trial of our Gold reports.

Crude has hit a low of 100.25 yesterday. It is an important level since crude still trades close to $101/barrel. We expect $99 to hold and it may produce a bounce from here.

The Euro rose to 1.5897, just shy of its earlier all-time high of 1.5907, but did not sustain the rise and has fallen back to 1.5773. We could now see some whipsawing between 1.5670 and 1.5907 through the rest of this week.

In early Asian trade, the Tankan showed Business confidence among large manufacturers in Japan dropped to a four-year low of 11 in Q1-08, from 19 in Dec. Dollar-Yen has responded by moving up slightly, and is now flirting with 100. Current levels near 99.98.

Cable, currently near 1.9834 is trading just 100 points above the lower end of its recent range of 1.9734-2.0200. This range is likely to remain in force for the next few days.

The Aussie is trading near 0.9145 and looks a tad bearish while below 0.9200. Else, at best if is ranged sideways between 0.91-0.92, currently awaiting the RBA decision. No change in interest rates is expected. Take a look at

Rupee is expected to be ranged between 40.00-20 today. The RBI is reported to have bought Dollars at 39.80 yesterday.

US 5-Yr and 10-Yr T Bonds traded near 2.44% and 3.41%. The 10-5 Yield Differential has started to narrow. Take a look at

US 6-mth Libor trades near 2.63. For a historical Libor chart going back to 1999, please click on

14:00 GMT Mar US Manufacturing ISM, Exp 47.5, Prev 48.3

Syd 03:37 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
RBA leaves official cash rate target unchanged at 7.25% following board meeting earlier today, saying current rate settings appropriate. Decision consistent with RBA's recent comments that economy may be starting to slow and that substantial tightening of monetary conditions since mid-2007 is being given time to work. RBA likely still retains tightening bias with inflation well above its 2%-3% band, but it is happy for now to remain sidelined. It's likely awaiting more news on inflation front. dj

Global-View 02:09 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Try it now and scroll down the headlines page for the Morning Report. There is also a link on the top navigation bar to our blog and latest headlines can also be found on our home page.

Syd 02:07 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Global-View sorry didnt see that

Global-View 02:02 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd, that report was posted in our blog hours ago LINK

Syd 01:00 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
DJ Bearish USD Preventing Big NZD Fall - Westpac

Ongoing weakness in USD is only barrier to substantially lower NZD/USD, says Westpac Bank strategist Michael Gordon; positives like boost to farmer incomes from surge in demand and prices for dairy products, increased government spending, tight labor market supporting economy, but adds a lot of negatives converging at same time. "The New Zealand dollar is increasingly coming under fire as the economic outlook softens"; upcoming data, including house sales and more confidence reports, unlikely to improve market sentiment.

FF-USA JC 00:42 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
Closed EUR/AUD at first target 1.7286, closed another at good till stop at break even 1.7176. Currently short AUD/USD first target .9066 then .8979 then much further down at .8794. Thats all for now, missed NZD short yesterday. GT to all

Atlanta South 00:28 GMT April 1, 2008 Reply   
San Diego bobl
Ref 16:22/Tks for your always informative views & comments as they are appreciated by this trader. Gt


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