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Forex Forum Archive for 05/1/2008

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Syd 23:58 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
China has secretly built a major underground nuclear submarine base that could threaten Asian countries and challenge American power in the region, it can be disclosed.LINK

Syd 23:56 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
China has secretly built a major underground nuclear submarine base that could threaten Asian countries and challenge American power in the region, it can be disclosed.http://LINK

Rio Tinto Cubriclas 23:09 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Quito Valdez 22:34 GMT May 1, 2008
May Day for communists or more affectionately called "Labor Day"

Valdez, i celebrate Labor Day and im not communist!

Quito Valdez 22:34 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
May Day for communists or more affectionately called "Labor Day" in Eng. speaking venues, or DIA DE TRABAJADORES in Spannie landia & for non-commies, is -today- for those who don't celebrate it with beach, and/or beer & and/or BBQ etc.. Mkts are thin & will be 'til hangovers, sunburn & drinkathons are done Monday AM. Whoever was wandering around in FXville today musta been walking around alone & had hunger for USDs ;^þ.

Quito Valdez 22:30 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
It's interesting on daily EUR/USD that both "trend support guess work" (taking in mind the time factor to get to 1.52ish if it doesn't fall straight down) at where pair will cross it & 50% retracement level of also 1.52ish...both coincide at about the same point. Technically this is significant. Reality wise.. humm, no crystal ball, we'll see. Chart play at best, LOL

Tokyo 22:27 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 13:23 GMT May 1, 2008
Tokyo 13:17 GMT May 1, 2008

amazing how data can change everthing! WoW Who would have new

--
was there any data for eurozone or for uk on 30th?not any last 24 hours!!!

LKWD JJ 21:48 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
on the topic of fib levels re: usdjpy. from 12/27 to 3/17 dropped 1894 pips. 31.2 was @ 102.97 gave a fight but was taken out .there was a pullback earlier in 08 but the 31.2 held. 50 level is @ 105.22. question is will we retest lower before going higher....

Quito Valdez 21:08 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
I was eyeing Monday to long EUR/USD but that proved wrong, a short lived long TP'd but not much.

Global-View Forex Blog 13:31 GMT May 1, 2008
That article parallels my view exactly. I wonder when the silly market will read it? LOL

Until I see something predictable, not 50-50 guess, I'll be flat. The USD needs a rest from tanking consistently and when it's ready to fall again I'll be back at it. I won't short EUR/USD for some time in the face of the actual core probs facing USA. I'll buy USD when USA's data says it's ready to get out of the financial hospital. Not before.

Quito Valdez 20:41 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
€/U$D daily chart
The dip from Nov22 to Dec20 last year was from about 1.4968 to about 1.4311 or about 657 pips dip. Right now Apr 27, we've got Apr 22 high of about 1.6020 minus approx. low today 1.5431 or 589 pips dip. If you want to compare the two dips, the present dip has a bit further to go to equal the big dip last year. Not that it means anything, it's proof the chart CAN dip and recover a LOT of pips. And the random up-down, false double top of Jan-Feb 08 or tripple top of Nov-Jan_Feb was impossible to predict, it lied. The chart broke all rules.

Interesting observation: If we draw a support line from low Aug 16 '07 to low Feb 7 '08, about 350 pips of space appears under today's low, (with time considered - SWAG) to 1.51, ... it can dive to daily chart support. That's interesting because of the below analysis with Fib & 50%.

For simple Fib, I use 32% and I use also 50%. Low at 1.4439 Aug 17 07 to high Apr 22 1.6020 is 1,581 pps. 38% of 1,581 is 506 taken off 1.6020 is 1.5514 Feb level, & that's uselss as chart has already passed that. Let's go down to 50% - is 776 or 1.5244. That isn't far from my trend support guesstimate above, 1.51.

Conclusion, if chart obeys general trading propensity and pierces south between 1.52XX and 1.51XX then at that point if mkt obeys technical propensities, it should recover substantially unless artificial support comes to play.

Other than that folks it's only a guess what the pair will do next. Have been flat since taking meager profit on EUR/USD long last PM because it didn't look strong enough to continue the long. I missed the whole durned short in Asian-NY sessions, was out of the office again at the wrong time on other biz. When I signed off last PM there wasn't enough proof either way to place an overnight limit position. Such is fate in FX.

Overall view, unless mkt sees something miraculous in US economic and financial sectors that I don't see, or unless majors take huge hits for financial/econ reasons in the future, or unless there is a concert effort of CBs to support USD, I can't see any difference between USD now and a couple weeks ago other than a very normal pullback (€/$) of the mkt. And again, as we near the top of what I feel is the max USD can fall vs EUR, it's going to be more and more likely the chart will have to cycle down to 130s or below.

GVI john 20:22 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   

jkt-aye 19:31 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
eur 1.5480 max then below 1.5430, jimvho

Napoli DC 18:09 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Rafe
even hourly?

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:56 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Napoli// We won't have any bounces for the next few days but weekly and monthly charts still trending up... anytime frame below that looks down, we have had a 200 pip drop today and it will continue for a few more days...

Napoli DC 17:50 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Rafe
hope i answered your question too
by

Napoli DC 17:41 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
JP
it depends on your time frame and trading strategy.
Personally, i follow a few indicators and believe in the power of hourly stoch and i don't use automatic stops.
Anyway, 1,55 is less or more what i'm waiting for, and before today's close i will add if new lows will be seen.
Tomorrow is another day.....
gl & gt

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:38 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Napoli DC 17:25 GMT May 1, 2008

are you talking about bounce on the dailies or some lesser time scale?

Mtl JP 17:27 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
DC 17:25 / any stop and profit target ? tia

Napoli DC 17:25 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
long € 1,5435.
Expect a bounce

lkwd jj 17:16 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
why the delay for usd/yen to move up ? was near 104 all am

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:42 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 20:55 GMT April 30, 2008
Subject:
Euro// nice place to add longs....

15282,15521.... (*15397*)

TARGET

16011,16254....

ISR JWEB 16:41 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
trying to long abit of aud for a spike

London NYAM 16:38 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
yeap half a position from here 1.5465 with stops under 1.5350 and adds in between for Asia.

LA BV 16:35 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Anyone long eur/usd?

Van jv 15:26 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
EUR--seems positive ISMs not enough to reach target suport 1.5340--hesitating and waiting for crucial payroll data tomorrow---if positive road to 1.49 -

USA Zeus 15:17 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS 15:26 GMT April 25, 2008
Crude is tearing some interesting ties. Short with special allocation funds @ 119.37



Covered 1/2 for some great E-Z money @ 110.90

Happy Day!

USA Zeus 14:59 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Same story different day. Guess the world knows who has rice and who doesn't.

ISR JWEB 14:45 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
hk. sorry i was looking at a head and shoulders diagram.

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 14:42 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
crude's price action suggests someone found a way to make cars to drive on sea water ... or,gravity takes it's toll ... happy trades!

HK Kevin 14:38 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
ISR JWEB 14:24 GMT, would like to share with you my views on AUD. Simply looking at the daily chart, it is a buy following yesterday's rally. Stop below 9270, but my expected today's low 9330 has been broken. Just watching now and may be EUR/AUD is worth to trade than AUD/USD

ISR JWEB 14:29 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
and to fm.. who was the guy that said that aud was going to 1.96 straight?

read today that its going to parity...

ISR JWEB 14:24 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
once again thanks to amman..

HK Kevin 14:06 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Closed another half at short AUD/JPY at 96.96 earlier with a postive DOW now and AUD hold 9330 key support

HK Kevin 13:58 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Closed half of my short AUD/JPY from 98.30 at 97.15

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 13:53 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   

EUR/USD: trades 1.2K pips above 2008 low
XAU/USD: trades around 2008 low


hhhmmm......

Global-View Forex Blog 13:31 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Fed Motor Car Pulls Off Easy Highway (FXA)

HK Kevin 13:29 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Watch for more carry trades washing with a negative US stock market opening

US SW 13:23 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Tokyo 13:17 GMT May 1, 2008

amazing how data can change everthing! WoW Who would have new

saopaulo cg 13:22 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
closed eurgbp with minus 35 pips.

keep short gbpjpy from 2.0615 with target below 200. adds if it goes higher. gtgl

Tokyo 13:17 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 10:40 GMT May 1, 2008
EUR/GBP looking to test 77


only yesterday it was testing 81 in your idea

HK Kevin 13:12 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
AUD.HOPY finally breaks below 97.25 intraday support, welcome 96.65

London HC 13:00 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Not what I meant.

GVI john 13:00 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
from GVI earlier...
2s vs EUR/USD


US SW 12:59 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
London HC 12:51 GMT May 1, 2008
yea, were making coin..me done for now:)

London HC 12:51 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Silence here says it all.

GVI john 12:21 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   

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tokyo ginko 11:33 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
eur/usd target this week 1.5210/30 levels GT all

slv sam 11:08 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
5690=5590

slv sam 11:07 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
5690 or even 5635 fir euro today can not be ruled out imo!Gt

Sydney Alimin 11:02 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
i have 4 hour 200 ema acting as a good support so far for cable today, if it is successful, then next would be 1000 ema which is around 1.9957 at the moment

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 10:52 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
ISR JWEB 10:47 GMT May 1, 2008

two quarters I said, two quarters [ shnei revaim ] ... further:

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 18:37 GMT April 30, 2008
Subject:
higher high is done ... what's wrong about lower low now?

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 18:05 GMT April 30, 2008
Subject:
last time, USD went up the few days after the cut

ISR JWEB 10:47 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
burgh, you may have some wishful thinking, trends dont turn over in one day, especially when the us is still very very interested in a weak dollar. (not a worthless one).

for now im not ruling out a stronger euro.

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 10:44 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
happy labor day ... it's not more than two quarters ahead that US housing market will announce that there is bottom in place ... then, USD will start the 50% gain against the majors ... until then, panic will only increase ... happy trades!

US SW 10:40 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
EUR/GBP looking to test 77

Gen dk 10:38 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Brisbane Flip 10:05 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Geneva the fact Euro has traded such a large range just illustrates the lack of liquidity due to european holiday. The heaviest volume is European open because it has Europe, UK and Asia. It's the same reason FX moves over-extend AFTER European close (NY afternoon) it is a much thinner market. Despite what CNBC may trumpet when it comes to FX...NY is not the "capital of the world"

Ft. Lauderdale MrHuckFin 10:03 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
What IS going on with the market right now? Is there some sort of Holiday going on in Europe?

US SW 09:49 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
covered my E/U

ISR JWEB 09:49 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
feeling tells me its about the yen crosses. it just doesnt want to go down..

PAR 09:35 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
BOE thinks market overstates losses. As with Northern Rock or when HBOS had more than enough capital . Lol. Imho BOE seems overly optimistic.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/ukPoundRpt/idUKL0158918720080501

US SW 09:28 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
madrid 09:24 GMT May 1, 2008
now thats deep....LOL :)

US SW 09:25 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Brussels LJ 09:14 GMT May 1, 2008

I totally agree, I think the Market will be down 200+ points today...if not, it will be upp huge..seems theres no middle ground after the data...being very causious during Market open..think the big move will be made around 2 pm ET like usual..GL

madrid 09:24 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
fwiw, i always believe that the market is not crazy.

I also always believe that the actors, traders, brokers, speculators etc.. in the markets are the crazy ones !

8-)O

US SW 09:18 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
shorted the E/U here 15520 for 30 pips....stop 15550

Brussels LJ 09:14 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
My thoughts exactly if the markets were a person i would say its high right now , just wait till the rest of the day unfolds.

US SW 09:11 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
madrid 09:07 GMT May 1, 2008

LOL...just seem like there is something odd in the air today...currency I believe will be very crazy today...though in this game ones censored is others heaven ... :<)

madrid 09:07 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
censored is h.e.l.l.
8-)O

madrid 09:06 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 09:00 GMT May 1, 2008
has anyone here been on the Demon Drop...

I have a good one for you -

If you are going through censored, keep going.
Winston Churchill

8-)O

US SW 09:00 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
has anyone here been on the Demon Drop...seems that were the EuroGbp is going to be labled...put your seat belts on..

US SW 08:53 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Bought Cable here @ 19866

Geneva 08:49 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Most European market are closed today,AND MARKET MOVMENT show the important of Europe in world finance! In other word, the Euro can't replace the dollar. The market moving as usual. When US or UK is close, there is no range at all.

Brussels LJ 08:48 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
By the way stand to be corrected it seems the bears are not done on the eurousd yet, why are people just so good at spoiling good trades.

Brussels LJ 08:45 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Thats the idea my good fellow.

US SW 08:43 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
keep in mind if the data is awful the E/U could rally hard!!! mayb to 15650

Brussels LJ 08:39 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
As we all now they are acting on the expected Data , if it comes out as they expected more drawdowns, sould be expected with those indexes.

madrid 08:38 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
In an not so liquid market, moves tend to be "over done" with less players in the field....And some are taking advantages of it.....8-)O

Take it as low or as high as you can and then do the opposite once a lot of players have been taken out...Simple strategy but very efficient !!!

It could be called -

MANEUVERING
-Maneuver to Gain the Advantage
-Achieve the Critical Mass
-Deceive your Competitor
-Gain the Mental Advantage


as per Sun Tzu 8-)O

US SW 08:35 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
HSI, CAC, FTSE, loosing ground..pushing Germany down as we speak...us futures could reverse before the data

US SW 08:33 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Brussels LJ 08:29 GMT May 1, 2008
yes, your right...data this morning will be key..for the pair..today I think there will be alot of washing, many pairs looking dirty here...

US SW 08:31 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
UK just pushed the sell button on the EuroYen....on the data weaker then expected

Brussels LJ 08:29 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 08:21 GMT May 1
Now there is a gloomy outlook on things, i think the eurousd has found its support at 1.5515 already, will get a bit of consolidation then when the yanks wake, the euro is due for some rallying, news on thw manufacturing sector in the us is expected not to be to good. Just a thought anyway.

US SW 08:29 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
7700 should be tested today EuroPound... :(

castellon greg 08:25 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
litle support at 1,5520 and 1,5540 (actualy at this price) in eur /usd of course for me....

US SW 08:21 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
no support in sight for the EuroUsd....maybe a bounce around 15460

US SW 08:19 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Looking for 21240+ gbpaud for a buy singnal on the eurogbp or a sell on the cable...

HK Kevin 08:18 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 07:59 GMT, I remembered Qindex mentionig last week the ragne 9810 and 9910, 9910 has been break yesterday to 9950, so it's not suprised to see 9810 break to your 9750. Selling Cable really need patience.
Still sit on my short AUD/JPY 9830 opended yesterday. This pair need to break 9720 intraday for more downside, stop slightly above 9780 now.

USA BAY 08:15 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Thank you Nyam and thank you Sam for the valuable inputs. Appreciate it. Good trades.

slv sam 08:14 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 08:11 GMT /
it is more to do with eurgbp than wth gbpusd!GT

London NYAM 08:14 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 08:06//It needs to contend with 2.0780/2.0810 before trying to get to 2.11 and this is still corrective. It will be tough to get there.

US SW 08:12 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 08:09 GMT May 1, 2008
thanks, I think todays data will be another wakeupp for the reccession camp GL London

USA BAY 08:11 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Brussels LJ,

Thanks, frankly very surprised with gbp strength.

London NYAM 08:09 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Market is getting stop runned so resistances are like magnates this am with it being relatively illiquid. Your resistance zone is on target with the last high at 1.9964 acting like a s/t target instead of barrier. I suspect some real scary selling will wake up with the dig-a-ling of 2.000 but I lean towards the drag of EUR making a break too expensive for the hunters as EURGBP is beginning to look cheap again IMHO. I will be on the short side of cable and the long side of EURGBP going into the day. gt

Brussels LJ 08:09 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 08:06 GMT May 1
Serious consolidation going on there , if i were you i will go long on the cable but not by many points Bon Chance.

USA BAY 08:06 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM,

HI NYAM, Any view on gbpchf please. Thanks.

Brussels LJ 08:04 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Hello Guys can any body tell me why the blazes sombody is dumping the euro so much against the dollar, i guess the Hedge Fund has hit its target the sadistic corp is done.

US SW 08:01 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 07:59 GMT May 1, 2008
were do you see resistance? (this morning)

US SW 07:59 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
EuroYen getting settupp by other pair working to push it down...after they settle..no bids the the E/Y

London NYAM 07:59 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Cable will be needing some catch up once EURGBP settles down. .7750 will be tough to break and if buying starts to kink in there it would drag cable with it i suspect.

US SW 07:57 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
looking for 10428 on the carry to show some sign of a short term bottom for the EuroUsd!

US SW 07:54 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Technically speaking, still not ready for a sustanble bounce..EuroUsd

US SW 07:53 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
looking for strong resistance around 21250 GBP/AUD

Lahore FM 07:52 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
on further consideration market finds little reason i suspect to sell usd.be it gold or currencies usd has kicked back in!

US SW 07:49 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
19960 to 2.0040 cable resistance....

US SW 07:48 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Cable is stable here @ 19890 looks like the next test will be in the range of 19960-

US SW 07:47 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
is the balloon loosing more AIR

GOLD 100 OZ FUTR (USD/t oz.) 876.900 11.800 1.36 03:08

US SW 07:46 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Overseas Market futures pointing down, on concerns of the US credit Mess....IMO

Sydney Alimin 07:45 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
stopped out on usdcad short for a loss, be back later

slv sam 07:42 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 07:19 GMT /
I guess you closed your long usd positons after last night mess and you feel angry that you could not be more patient!
I think this is what this fx game is all about.
be patient...do not take poitions ..stay in good margin level..and never rush to act during the storm ..wait for things to settle. Myself waited till I was sure 5740 level is the top then shorted the euro..may be I was lucky this time..but if we learn more we survive longer!GT

US SW 07:41 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
2 points from yesterdays close...New Month=New Money

-49.00 12818.00 5/1 3:21am

US SW 07:38 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
EuroYen also looking very very vulnrable..may be a good entry here for a swing on the short side...160.80 possible on my TA

eu kaprikorn 07:36 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
thank you ALL nice people - I got my releif by your posts!

since it's professional forum and for respect to Jay I again thank you and will take a break until I am able to actually contribute since I got enough.
Good luck all!

US SW 07:35 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
EuroUsd....look very week..looks like a large bank or Hedge fund is selling...may go back to 154-

milan tom 07:34 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Eurusd - imho a gorgeous stophunting - gone long

US SW 07:33 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
cable is a hard short here...I squared upp, cause I think it may try 2.00...its a lot strong than it appears...I think that if it breaks 1.9940 it will start moving upp on stops...GL :)

Sydney Alimin 07:31 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 07:19 GMT May 1, 2008

kapri,maybe you are trading with big leverage that one mistake hit you in a big way or exactly as you realised: lack of rules and disciplines
anyway, for me, most important thing is self-discipline/mentality and money/risk management, second to that then comes improving analysis and build a system, then comes picking the entry that has got the best risk reward ratio possible and this requires patience, last part is learning when is the right time to get out and be content with whatever the results are

as of mistakes, they are always there, even pros make mistakes, hey we are only humans...difference being how to minimise and turn them around as soon as one is realised, without mistakes how can we learn everyday to be better? market is there to teach us to be humble and learn from our mistakes

i make mistakes all the time, no doubt about it, it is the passion that keeps me there day in day out, i do accept frustration at times as part of the job, but the reward is there at the end of the day, sincerely hope you can only be better trader kapri, don't give up

London NYAM 07:29 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 07:19//Dont be so hard on yourself. It takes a while to change ones natural tendancies to cling to errors and avoid the traps of greed and fear. Even after thinking you have mastered that you will be tested again and again. 2 months of good trades and winners is a breeding ground for overconfidence and greed. The good news is that it was two months of patience rather than two weeks so you have moved on to the next level. Take a break.

US SW 07:29 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 07:19 GMT May 1, 2008

sounds like your adding to your postions to fast, am I correct?

eu kaprikorn 07:19 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
I am actually puzzled by myself and the ultimate stupidity I show here.. ..
didn't ever think I will be writing such miserable questions in the forum after all the support received by pro members

but it's sure I'm just the next in the 95% group -- making big profits - then giving back just like that

no discipline - no rules - total lack of concentration -- and the problem - how a black box can fix itself since it is trapped inside?

if you fix something you are something external to the system -- but how a mistaken system can fix itself?

how can I extend beyond my own mind -- lokk at it from outside and fix it? I been making the same mistakes all the years I'mtrying to succeed in this endeavour -- and even after being on the winning track for 2 months I failed again

sorry for the crap - but it's the only place where I can seek advice anyway.

US SW 07:15 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 07:12 GMT May 1, 2008

shorts are taking a beating...pairs like the GBP/AUD are making this a hard trade to short...be careful

eu kaprikorn 07:12 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
any idea where is GBPUSD going in the short term?

Hourly chart tells me it's a clera sell but EURGBP selling gives it strength...

totally lost.

Sydney Alimin 07:03 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
usdcad looks capped, could be wrong of course
anyway, try small short usdcad 1.0086, stop above 1.0108, target 1.0050 and lower

Lahore FM 06:53 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
i am not sure about the master-trader part while here still learning everyday with and without mistakes.

Lahore FM 06:52 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
madrid 06:50 GMT May 1, 2008

thanx mm!all the best!

madrid 06:52 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
The new villains are in town...Apparently ! 8-)

A New Wave of Vilifying Short Sellers

"In the days when square-rigged galleons plied the spice route to the East, the Dutch outlawed a band of rebels that they feared might plunder their new-found riches."

../..

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/business/30shorts.html?_r=1&scp=2&sq=hedge+funds&st=nyt&oref=slogin

madrid 06:50 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM 06:46 GMT May 1, 2008

Coming from a Master trader like you, i am humbled ! Thank you !

Yes PAR has something to do with it, i must admit ! 8-)O

You have a gr8 day Sir and hope all is weel from your side of the world !

An dplease keep posting your trades.

g/l & g/t

8-)

Lahore FM 06:46 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
madrid 06:16 GMT May 1, 2008

some of the best sharp witted by-notes there.guess you really took inspiration from PAR's contributions mm!

Lahore FM 06:28 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
half out of 0.9430 short audusd at 0.9393 for 37+.stops same as before at 0.9473 bid.

madrid 06:16 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
* Strong hint Fed likely to pause - Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal.
THERE IS NOT MUCH LEFT NOW !!! 8-)O

* Fed Plosser - Commitment to inflation goal yield better results than discretionary policy, loss of inflation-fighting credibility grave - Reuters.
HERE IS SOMEONE WHO MIGHT HAVE READ A BOOK ON ECONOMy AND WATCHED ZIMBABWE ECONOMIC AND INFLATIONARY SITUATION . 8-)O

* US TsySec Paulson - GDP data doesn"t change outlook that US economy has slowed dramatically, more headwinds likely, supportive of Fed actions, believes in strong USD, value to reflect better long-term prospects - Bloomberg TV, CNN.
DEFINE STRONG PLSE ! 8-)

* Paulson - Inflation news more good than bad, core prices contained - PBS NBR.
I AM NOT SURE I UNDERSTAND ! 8-)O

* BoE - Market estimates of credit crunch may exaggerate impact on economy and financial system, sub-prime losses likely $170 bln or half forecasts, UK banks agreed to keep minimum assets in SLS - Reuters, DowJones.
WHAT ARE $170 bln NOWADAYS WHEN SOME CENTRAL BANKS ARE READY TO USE TAXPAYERS MONEY TO HELP "FRIENDS"!?!?! 8-)O

* BoE Gieve - Unavoidable correction after credit boom proving protracted and difficult, pricing in of risk has gone from too low to too high - Reuters.
BUY HIGH, SELL LOW SEEMS TO BE THERE MOTTO ! 8-)O

* BoE Blanchflower - Scary similarities between US-UK economies, too much focus on short-term CPI, medium-term CPI risks to downside, output and employment must also be eyed - The Scotsman.
HOW ABOUT VERY VERY VERY LONG TERM ?8-)O

* S&P upgrades Brazil sovereign debt to BBB-, investment grade now.
GISELE MIGHT BE THINKING TO CHANGE HER EUROS INTO REAL BY NOW !!! 8-)O


have a gr8 day !!

madrid 05:58 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
-Losses make the trader studious - not profits. Take advantage of every loss to improve your knowledge of market action.

madrid 05:57 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Hello FX Mousquetaires from around the world 8-)O

All for one and one for all !!!

Another day, another opportunity/ies !

US SW 05:55 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
United States Oil or Oil etf for the US Stock Market = rolled over today...now=Apr 30 92.50 0.49 0.53%

US SW 05:54 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.) 114.720 1.260 1.11 01:07

US SW 05:53 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
GOLD 100 OZ FUTR (USD/t oz.) 878.400 13.300 1.54 01:09

Alaska Moon 05:52 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 05:38 GMT May 1, 2008
======

the answer to some of the questions can be answered with timeframes.....It is humbling to realize that each time we make a trade, some one somewhere trades it the other way. At first it seems someone is right and someone is wrong, but that is not necessarily correct. With different time frames, both trades can make money......
IMO...
Moon

US SW 05:50 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
closed 12820 now -49.00 12813.00 5/1 1:15am

US SW 05:44 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 05:38 GMT May 1, 2008

self disocpline...when you think something can't going any higer or lower, just make it a reality in your own mind that it will...and if your building a postion...make your own rules..like I will not add untill there is another 30 pip spread, or I will not exceed more than 1/10 lots per postions...and stops of course...and I will not start building a postion before data that could move against my postion...I will always have so much money in my margin to make sure that my potion is coverd and will not be in danger...ect ect...GL

eu kaprikorn 05:38 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Gold Coast fxi 00:59 GMT May 1, 2008
Weird discussion about "predicting".

................
dear sir -- I experience on my own the facts that you stated -- I see that even when I have a good reading of charts I fail because of using too large leverage and my trading is just like casino gambling

I want to change that cuz I want a sustainable process instead of this grotesque...

but then I see the problem -- I have to change myself - but it is is hard to impossible to change yourself since one have been doing things wrong all the years..

any piece of advice? I am really ready to commit but lack the means to change right now I guess..
TIA!

US SW 05:33 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
49.00 12813.00 5/1 1:15am

US SW 05:19 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
sorry I meant "TALKING HEADS" :)

US SW 05:17 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
I agree that the tone will be down for the EuroYen, though as a trader I believe in a down turn, you will have sharp upp ticks or mini rallies, which are usually shorted....Summer is almost here and it looks like the US Bear Market is now on the starting line..we hit 13000 today...and yes we are in a reccession...what will the talking say when the DJIA is trading around 11000, amazing how they seem to always be wrong!

US SW 05:12 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
saopaulo cg 05:09 GMT May 1, 2008

do you have a site/referance???

saopaulo cg 05:09 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
about eurjpy in dailyfx.com. Recomended

Euro / Yen Sets Up For Bears...Again
Wednesday, 30 April 2008 19:48:47 GMT

The resistance line that dates to October AND the other side of what was once a support line (which dates back to 2000) was evidence to us last Wednesday that a wave 2 top was either in place or very close to in place. As it turned out, the high was last Wednesday. Remember, the count tells us that a 3rd of C is expected. In other words, the EURJPY should fall hard. The ultimate target is not until below 149.25, but probably closer to 140

US SW 03:54 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
The EuroYen is forming a Wedge and looks like its getting ready to take off....upp and away...Stay Tuned

US SW 03:37 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.) 114.750 1.290 1.14 22:53

US SW 03:37 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
GOLD 100 OZ FUTR (USD/t oz.) 880.900 15.800 1.83 22:52

Syd 02:04 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Could oil mania be coming to an end?
Speculation has driven up prices - but things could be about to change, some analysts sayLINK

Cbj Jake 01:58 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Alaska (23:13) -Along the same lines we cannot know the present moment. Cognition is always the past. Likewise, a hitter does not know the moment of contact with a 90mph fastball. Nor do you know the moment of sleep or awakening. You hang around until it happens, hopefully!
On awakening, for a brief second, the sound is just a hum. A moment later, we put on the dirty clothes of memory(culture). We call it a plane. Then our basic simplicity is broken with a world of ten thousand things. Suddenly we must rush for this and that.
The friction of constant thinking exhausts us until sleep overtakes us and we are unplugged!

saopaulo cg 01:57 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
very nice H&S in usdjpy 1 hour chart.....time to jump in for the bears !!!

Congratulations for your call Dr. Quindex !!!

Syd 01:43 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Aussie Building Approvals Slump;Flag Econ Softness
Australian March building approvals slump, weighed by RBA rate hikes, rise in bank mortgage loan rates, uncertain outlook for domestic and global economy; residential building approvals fall 5.7% against market expectations for 1.0% decline. Data will be a relief though to RBA, feed into bigger picture of slowing demand and taking heat out of inflation; eyes now on 1Q and March retail sales data Friday for further evidence of cooling economy.dj

Syd 01:23 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Net long noncommercial positions in Australian dollar futures are at their largest in almost a year. "This positioning suggests there is some risk that the Australian dollar could fall sharply in the short term if further downside risks come to fruition," St. George Bank say Domestic economic data in the coming days will likely be soft, taking further support from the local unit.

saopaulo cg 01:05 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
short gbpjpy at 206.19, target below 200. will add if it goes higher.

Gold Coast fxi 00:59 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Weird discussion about "predicting".

The undeniable thruth is the fact that approx. 5% of market participants use ways and means to collect what the other 95% play with but are unable to keep.

If those ways and means are not "predictive" of their results then the whole thing would be bizarre.

US SW 00:58 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
short gbpaudi 21060 target 20744 stop 21344 :)

US SW 00:49 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
-49.00 12826.00 4/30 8:19pm closed 12820 :) +6 USD

Ft. Lauderdale gb 00:42 GMT May 1, 2008 Reply   
Just got into this group, hi all, looks like a pretty good place to hand out for forex ideas, very interesting thoughts here on EURUSD

 




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