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Forex Forum Archive for 06/1/2008

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Syd 23:58 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said he expects euro-zone inflation to stay at current levels for some months and decrease from record levels if oil prices remain stable
Italian daily Il Messaggero

Syd 23:56 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
WSJ: US Tsy Secy Paulson To Woo Sovereign Fund While In UAE

Steamboat Springs MDA 23:49 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
GBPJPY - I don't use MAs but agree this one is probably a longterm BUY. I'd love to catch it on weakness to 205.00/206.00 but doubt will be so accomodating. Will just try to get on from good volatility breaks in the swings.

Los Angeles - Bernie bernie 23:29 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
Kaprikorn – Golden Cross on what time frame please? Fri a cross at 208.13 on 30 min screen. A 5/27 cross on the 4hour chart…am I reading you correctly?

A Buy in both cases.

Maribor 23:22 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
Fort Worth PRC 23:13 GMT May 31, 2008

I find too little communication between providers and users on (one) autotrade site; if user do not follow strategy of provider, results may be worse than published. And with no communication no reasonable man would follow autotrade signals he know nothing about... One important indicator seen on that site is best return of their users: one user(always among top 5) gained ~350% from 2004, other users with high gains pop up and go bust...

You can gain a lot(but it take time), if you limit your particular position size to ~2 times equity and max ~10 positions simultaneusly. Otherwise, your gain will come and go...

Syd 23:18 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
Yves Saint Laurent, who died Sunday aged 71, was one of a handful of designers who dominated 20th century fashion, on a par with Christian Dior, Coco Chanel and Paul Poiret.

Syd 23:06 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
DJ AUD/USD Vulnerable To Evidence Of Slower Growth
Australian markets are currently pricing an 85% chance the RBA will hike rates 25bp at year-end, but nabCapital strategists say they remain wary of a potential scaling back in rate hike expectations if news on the economy continues to suggest a significant slowdown. Wednesday's GDP growth for 1Q will be at or below the modest 0.6% on quarter rise in 4Q. NabCapital wouldn't be surprised to see AUD/USD falling back towards 0.9380 in the near-term, which is the level from which the currency first broke higher. It is also rising trend line support from 0.8955 struck on March 20.

Syd 23:03 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:40 good morning , I was on the Gold Coast over the weekend popped into a Samsara Store on Sunday where I know the manager, said that on Friday on took only $13.50 in sales , and over the weekend normally takeover of over $8000 , they took $2000 - said she was very worried, seems many are cutting back on household items just to cover their mortgages, like I said any further rate increase many of these type of stores will just close up .

Sydney ACC 22:40 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd 22:20 GMT June 1, 2008
I'm starting to think we are in sight of a major turnaround for commodity currencies.
Earlier last month OECD put out a major report indicating a downturn in industrial production in India and China on top of what it is occurring in the countries they cover.
When last AUD was at 0.9650 within three months it was 10 cents lower. Although as that was in 1984 only a few months after the float I wouldn't use that as a major indicator.
Base metal prices have been showing some weakness over the last few weeks.
We have retail sales this morning with most analysts forecasting 0.2% increase. Given retailers' share prices have sagged this might be a indication of something lower.
Checked out the clearnace rates in the Herald again this weekend. Most areas down 20% except out west and south west where rates were roughly the same. In teh South West only 20 properties offered for sale and 5 sold. Trouble is brewing I think.

Syd 22:20 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
Demand cools for Chinese products
June 2, 2008
MANUFACTURING in China, the world's fastest growing major economy, expanded at a slower pace in May as export growth weakened. The Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 53.3 from a record 59.2 in April, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said yesterday.Slower expansion in economies around the world is cooling demand for made-in-China goods, leading the central bank to last week forecast a "moderate" slowing of economic growth this year. Indexes of new orders, export orders and output fell in the survey.
"Export growth slowed down in May, leading to a slowdown in demand growth," said Zhang Liqun, a senior research fellow at the State Council's Development Research Centre.
"We expect Chinese exports to continue slowing for the rest of this year, as US housing prices and consumption decline," said Xing Ziqiang, a Beijing economist at China International Capital Corporation.Mr Xing said the May 12 earthquake that devastated parts of Sichuan province was a factor in the slowing, although the federation's statement did not mention the quake.The index of export orders fell to 53.4 from 58.9. The index of new orders declined to 55.4 from 65. The output index dropped to 55.7 from 66.5. China's economy, the world's fourth biggest, expanded 10.6 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier.The index is based on a survey of more than 700 companies in 20 industries, including energy, metallurgy, textile, automobile and electronics. A reading above 50 reflects an expansion, below 50 a contraction.
The measure of input prices fell to 73.9 from 75.1, the highest on record, the federation said.The survey also tracks changes in employment, inventories and output prices. The data is seasonally adjusted.

eu kaprikorn 22:10 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
GBPJPY Weekly -- has good reason to believe that the trading range 209 - 205 -- is good position building to challenge 220/22 -- close to 50-MA

the pending golden cross of 10 X 20_MA plus the bullishness of of indicators on weekly signals a trend is to emerge

RISK:: first support is at the trendline __ 205 -- below 200 it is gone for good.

- - - - - - - - - --
USDJPY - Daily chart broke off thew traingle consolidation from Feb Highs above 108 <-> March lows ~~ 97 -- average range ~ 13 points

20-DMA above 50 >> 50 crossed 100-DMA - bullish enough
200-DMA 107.25 is first test and a close above would be clear enough

given a clear close above proves a trend continuation 114/16 well might be the mid rterm targets

RISK:: close below 102.50 negates this scenario

BA mades 21:13 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
.. a gap has to be filled .. :)

LKWD JJ 21:11 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
long usdjpy @08 so it was down there. cable hit mid 20's long there from 19740.

BA mades 21:07 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
I see usdjpy down 20 pips

LKWD JJ 20:29 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
missed jpy also up vs usd 40+ pips. anybody home here?

LKWD JJ 20:26 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
any news? usd steady vs jpy, euro, chf. only cable dropped.

LKWD JJ 20:23 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
cable 19740? huh? 80 pts off fridays close?

BA mades 14:49 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
EURJPY: If we consider USDJPY won't break the weekly down trendline (which means it can max to 106.5 and down), EURUSD shows very strong bear price action (double high on weekly, lower low/close second bar) and eurjpy weekly trendline still holds, we have a very nice SHORT setup following week (500 to 1000 pips). What do you think?

Syd 03:14 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
Speculators behind oil price risesFont Size: Decrease Increase June 01, 2008
OPEC president Chakib Khelil again blamed speculators for the steep rise in oil prices, insisting that supply was not a problem.

"There is no problem of supply, the problem is much more linked to speculation," he told a press conference with visiting French ecology and energy minister Jean-Louis Borloo.

He also said the price of oil was closely linked to the exchange rate of the US dollar, which has fallen steeply against other major currencies.

"The consensus is that the crisis is not over and there is going to be a continuing impact on the prices of oil because of speculation," he added.

Khelil, who is also the Algerian energy minister, had made similar remarks on in an interview with Spanish national radio.

"If OPEC decides to raise production ... these hikes will not really lower the price," he said then.
He said Saturday that the cartel of producer nations would not review the situation again until it meets in Vienna on September 9.

Oil prices are still extremely volatile, closing in New York at 127.35 dollars a barrel Friday for light sweet crude for July delivery, up 73 cents on the day but well short of earlier in the week, when crude surged beyond 135 dollars on concerns about tightening energy supplies.

Khelil also linked the diesel fuel market to the rise in oil prices.


Syd 03:05 GMT June 1, 2008 Reply   
Banks' credit crisis solutions have echoes of 1929 Depression
As banks look to shore up their balance sheets in the wake of the credit squeeze, Philip Aldrick asks whether it is all short-term trickery

Investors gather in New York's financial district after the stock market crash of 1929, which heralded the onset of the Great Depression

'We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s," warns the eminent financier George Soros in his latest book, The New Paradigm for Financial Markets. It's a rather extreme view, but the man who broke the Bank of England is not alone in his dark funk. At a recent event, one banker laced Soros's sentiment with a little gallows humour, ruefully predicting "10 years of depression followed by a world war".
Perhaps the most intriguing parallel, though, is the crude attempt at self-preservation made by the investment trusts in 1929 and the banks now.

In the great crash, investment trusts with vast cross-holdings in each other tried to stem their collapse by buying up their own stock in what the economist JK Galbraith in his book, The Great Crash 1929, described as an act of "fiscal self-immolation". At the time, "support of the stock of one's own company seemed a bold, imaginative and effective course," Galbraith wrote, but ultimately the trusts were just "swindling themselves



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