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Forex Forum Archive for 07/1/2008

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USA ZEUS 23:41 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Short GBP/USD for a swing trade at 1.9944 and will add at higher levels

USA ZEUS 23:39 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Shorted crude oil at 141.72 and will add at higher levels.

USA ZEUS 22:46 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Yes. USD is about to get on it.

USA BAY 22:16 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM,

Thanks a lot FM, I am short aud/usd at 9550 and eur/aud at 1.6340. All the best.

Lahore FM 22:07 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
BAY,1.70 is on.

Lahore FM 22:04 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 20:59 GMT July 1, 2008
more poor data BAY.

JJ,the aud gold link been looser than ususal might not lift aud and also fall before it can be of help.

Syd 21:53 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 21:43 hi , where do you the Aud and Kiwi in those circumstances, bearing in mind the high deficits they carry ??

Como Perrie 21:53 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
I wd wait coupla weeks so far before starting anything so long as positions..

Como Perrie 21:43 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
When the war starts, somewhere between september and november more likely, the risk of having eurusd at 1.3 or lower is great.

USA BAY 20:59 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
lahore FM,

What is your target for eur/aud and any idea on aud data today. tia

LKWD JJ 20:53 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
fm will gold rally give it some lift? i see you are very bearish the yellow metal.....

Lahore FM 20:47 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:42 GMT July 1, 2008

JJ taking profit is can get in again though.

DS,is there some inflation figure coming out of weimar republic?

LKWD JJ 20:42 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
FM that was a good call in audusd.(gvi) i got in too early(9607) only to be down 60+ pips before she cracked. got out yesterday (9556) before rate anouncement as i was sleeping and didnt want to lose again in case it would be hawkish. trying to build up account and taking profits when available without extra risk.

Geneva DS 20:35 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
WEIMAR is loose.... watch the shorts in EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAU- ,,,, XAG,,,, OIL ,, AUDUSD... etc.... good luck..

Lahore FM 20:31 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 18:49 GMT July 1, 2008
good sell at current 0.9540.i am in it 110 pips above here.also short against eur.

Syd 20:21 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard's bearish comments on domestic economy in interview with Central Bank News overnight combines with weak AUD to pull Kiwi down, says ANZ Bank; ANZ senior trader Alex Sinton says comments, while breaking no new ground, prompted more selling given heightened risk aversion; "he (Bollard) was talking about the second quarter growth being roughly flat, and refers to significant downturn (in first quarter), which at a time of risk-aversion weighed on the Kiwi." Thinks NZD/USD will remain biased lower though some yield-support evident near current levels

Lahore FM 20:16 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
London Gooner 19:51 GMT July 1, 2008

thanx Gonner dear.

at present i will keep the stops at 947 but if it did not work will try to enter near 955 with a stop above.i doubt though there is much upside left to to gold but then i can be wrong.

good to see you around!

London Gooner 19:51 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Hello dear FM.

Gold possibly ending a corrective abc from 845 at today high area
940 short with stop above 955

London Gooner 19:11 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
USA BAY 18:55 GMT July 1, 2008

I have longs from sub 2.000 and looking to add above 2.0500 again. 2.1500 area is target if we remain obove daily TL forming
to chanel top.

Lille Geo 18:57 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:35 GMT July 1, 2008

thank you sir

USA BAY 18:55 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
london Gooner,
Any targets for gbp/chf. thanks

USA BAY 18:49 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   

What do you think of short aud/usd? thanks

London Gooner 18:42 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Sold EurUSD 1.5785 - stop if breaks/close above 1.5850
Targeting 1.5500 area.
gbpchf making higher lows last 3 sessions above daily support TL with higher high today.

Lahore FM 18:35 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Lille Geo 18:30 GMT July 1, 2008

Lille Geo 18:30 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Thank you. What about targets? thanks

Lahore FM 18:29 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
yes Geo,i got stopped for no loss.thanks to part close short again at 942 with 47 stop.

you can check archives when you wish to see posts by any of the contributors if you don't know already sabout it,that is.

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:21 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Euro has daily support at 15739-56, resistance at 15844-63, below 15801 is a upside trade targeting higher levels.

PAR 18:15 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
GM says June sales decline 18.5%
Despite strong retail sales for some of its cars, General Motors said today that June sales fell 18.5 percent from the same month a year ago. GM sold 265,937 vehicles in June, down from 326,300 last year. For the first half of 2008, GM’s U.S. sales totaled 1,604,942, down 16.5 percent from last year’s 1,922,762.

Richmond Dennis 18:08 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
GM -14%, Toyota -12.5%:

those who lived by light trucks/SUV's, die by same.

long overdue!

PAR 17:52 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Ford’s June swoon: Sales plunge 28 percent
With gasoline prices at record highs and consumer confidence at record lows, U.S. auto sales declined sharply in June. Ford Motor Co. sales were down 29.5 percent in June compared to June 2007. It sold 173,462 vehicles last month. Ford sales were down 14.5 percent

PAR 17:48 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Expect PPT to step in and use some Us taxpayers money to bring Us stocks higher towards the close. Free trade, free markets and limited government ? Hum

jkt-aye 17:36 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
gbpusd ... magnetic level on 1H 1.9770 and 4H 1.9780. i think we still have a chance to get there this week as normal weekly range from my calc is 2.0062 - 1.9771. gtgl

The Netherlands Purk 17:19 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
hmm that 9530 in aud/usd is there again. New levels: aud/usd: 9494; cable: 19796; euro/usd: jo/jo, 15740 is a nice one.

singapore td 16:59 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
too much negativity on euro and yet price action tells otherwise, i think we are advancing to 1.60

Vienna Kerry 16:55 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply
ECB sold 30 tons of gold
great happy trades

Vienna Kerry 16:45 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
I have changed my mind
My intuition tell me now a much lower Gold and EURUSD mid Juli
Great trades

ABHA FXS 16:19 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Long CADJPY 103.00 TP 108.00

Stockholm za 15:55 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   

Forex portfolio fuel = USD/ZAR
Forex short-stack killer = GBP/JPY
All engines good to go………….

jkt-aye 15:53 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
thinking of oil move to 138.00 base on 4H magnetic level.

Lille Geo 15:46 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Following you :) what are your targets? sorry for asking all the time..

Hk Kevin 15:08 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Sold EUR/JPY at 167.20, stop 167.51

London NYAM 15:00 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Closed out 75% of gbpjpy short trades 211.00 for some gains. Stop on remainder 212.5x. Adios

PAR 14:54 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Interesting story.


" At one point, Paulson had to sign a document confirming that, yes, in the event Bear defaulted on its securities, the American taxpayer would pay the tab. "

Big question about stability of Us investment banks ?

Lahore FM 14:33 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
short gold 942.00 stops 947.00 bid,still carrying half short from 917.

Lahore FM 14:30 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
932.50 gold short stopped at 937.50 bid at no loss with partial close at 926.90 as posted earlier.

Hk Kevin 14:27 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Granada-España 14:23 GMT, we have news everydays. May be for you, no news is a good news

Amsterdam Purk 14:24 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
The Shirts: Tell me your plans!

Not sure if we got rid of the not to mentioned level anymore in aud/usd. The level in cable did very well today. And again, both sides where happy today! Balance.

Granada-España 14:23 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
just news stoped me out. i was lont 1.5770, and stopped at 1.5755 in 2second -15p.
Dont like the news ¡¡¡¡

USA ZEUS 14:17 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Granada-España 12:42 GMT July 1, 2008

Thank you! We will be back at full pace soon.

eu kaprikorn 14:13 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
well not really - failed to close at the best point..
gl gt - not a good day for me today - hope some newbie gets a clue what not to do from my posts today..

London NYAM 14:09 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Added to gbpjpy short at 211.05 t/p om GBPUSD 1.9940

eu kaprikorn 14:04 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
nyam - fear and greed mate - all there is to this game..

shorted to the full limit before ISM - to repair the damage. - now USD longs look beter

US SW 14:03 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
what a nice little gap on the usdjpy intra...stoped me out, but Im going long now////GL all

US SW 13:58 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
my black box is showing a reversal on the audusd

madrid 13:50 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   

Mac Davis with the Muppet Show !

What a song !!! 8-)

Hk Kevin 13:45 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Very guly for the carry trade if AUD/JPY & GBP/JPP traded below 100 & 210

London NYAM 13:45 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
aye//My guess is first the geisha then the queen then both.
Bay//s/t ideally 208.40/60 and later a test of daily trend line around 206.60 (today) would be nice.

Lille Geo 13:42 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
lahore fm, did you get stopped in gold?

jkt-aye 13:38 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
NYAM ... who will bring gbpjpy down ? the geisha or her majesty ? tia

PAR 13:29 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
VIENNA (Dow Jones)--European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher said Tuesday that the development of euro-zone inflation in recent months has been alarming and inflation is likely to stay "significantly" above 3% throughout 2008.
He warned against second-round price effects. The risks are great that inflation will be fueled through wage hikes and further price increases, Liebscher said in a published summary of his semiannual macroeconomic testimony to the Austrian parliament.
Liebscher, who is also the governor of the Austrian central bank, urged restraint in upcoming wage negotiations and said companies should be moderate in their pricing of products to keep second-round effects from manifesting themselves in coming months.
Liebscher said he expects euro-zone inflation to slow to 2.4% only during the course of 2009.
Official preliminary data showed Monday that annual euro-zone inflation in June came in at 4%, higher than expectations of a 3.9% annual rate and far above the ECB's price stability target of just below 2%.
The ECB is widely expected to hike its key interest rate Thursday to 4.25% from 4.0% currently in response to surging inflation.

USA BAY 13:28 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
London Nyam,

Your target for gbp/jpy please. Thank you

US SW 13:23 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
London, seems like your first prediction on the GbpUsd was right on...sees 20080 imo

US SW 13:19 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 13:18 GMT July 1, 2008

couldn't resist....seems over the next week 10450/possible today

US SW 13:18 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
sold the usdjpy here *10530

London NYAM 13:14 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Kap//The speed at which you switch sides may indicate fear is a problem. Adding on the way down is good if you see a break occur that is significant or if you see a retacement that appears corrective only (ie; correction against what you believe to be the larger move you are on). Still think smaller positions would help. gl

eu kaprikorn 13:12 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
btw -- leaders as Gold and CL futures were signalled it quite well -- so the fool was me not to take profit in due time.

it's pity that so many times it happened to me and I still like to do my stupid old mistakes but market is relentless and imposes knoledge by the big stick!

Richmond Dennis 13:12 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Actually skeptic, "Oh Lord..." is from the earlier 1970's ... arounf 1972/73 if my failing memory serves me right.


eu kaprikorn 13:08 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
squared all positions - missed the large part of the profits as both EUR & GBP rebounded..
once again greed taught me a good lesson!

London NYAM 13:05 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Euro Skeptic 13:03//Encore!

Euro Skeptic 13:03 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
"Oh Lord it's hard to be humble
when you're perfect in every way.
I can't wait to look in the mirror
cause I get better loking each day."

Mac Davis - 1980

London NYAM 13:02 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
GBPJPY looks very encouraging for a large drop.

US SW 12:58 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
just squared upp...before ism..GL all

Granada-España 12:42 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
hi Usa Zeus, nice to see you again ¡¡

USA ZEUS 12:39 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Ahhh July. Well June was fabulous no losses/all winners month.
Let's see what July brings...


London NYAM 12:35 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 12:32//Interesting thanks!

eu kaprikorn 12:32 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 12:25 .......
mate, I know you don't use MAs - but on 4H you will see this T/L you pointed is actually the Support of the 20MA..
tnx for pointing out..

eu kaprikorn 12:28 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Richmond Dennis 11:46 .....
hello - interesting in my country with is Easern Europe the stock market crashed as you wrote around Oct 08..
it has been down since then (more than 60-70% down from the Highs) and all the way down I see people in the local forum talking of Correction and how it will just snap back to new high..

then I read Reminiscences of Stock Operator and how to unload stock on the way down as there are always 'bargain hunters'..
very interesting indeed.. regards!

London NYAM 12:25 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 11:45//Nice work. FWIW I am keeping an eye out for a break of this trend line: 25/06 18:00 1.9654 and 1/07 04:00 1.9829 gl

US SW 12:22 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
long eurusd here *15781/no stop as of yet

Richmond Dennis 12:12 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
YOUR opinion as well!

US SW 12:11 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
sold gbpchf 20305

US SW 12:10 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Richmond Dennis 11:46 GMT July 1, 2008

your Opinion, looking at a five year chart/were at the Piviot...

Richmond Dennis 11:46 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 11:43 GMT

crash "into" a bear market? We have been in one since Sept 08!

eu kaprikorn 11:45 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
now that I see 4H charts in gold and crude turning I added shorts at 1.9970 & 1.5790
now positions are nearly to the full limit and I would leave them to go now...
pls excuse me for the excessive forum participation on my side today - it will be kept in check in future!

US SW 11:43 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
wow, looking at the, if the ism is really bad, we could crash into a Bear market...a friend of mine was just telling me that his 401 is already down 17 percent YTD

London NYAM 11:38 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Half out short gbpusd 1.9967 stop lowered to 2.0005. Hedging against alternate pattern that this is merely a micro wave c of 4 (of about 3 higher order 5s).

eu kaprikorn 11:33 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
SW ........
yes mate - I do it all the way - scale in and out the leverage exposure
-- see I try to add more leverage now when the trade is going in the assumed direction - before I used to average but now I try to increase the leverage only when trade goes ok..

US SW 11:28 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
gbpchf under pressure

madrid 11:26 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
I am confused today ....8-)
i am shockingly confused !


US SW 11:24 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 11:15 GMT July 1, 2008

maybe you should use leverage as a tool...maybe build in thirds...then set sl and ts

eu kaprikorn 11:24 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
gold & crude 4H ... I watch for confirmation of lower highs ..

if we have seen the intraday highs in eur & gbp it will be easier to trade the short side
added some 1.9968

GVI Forex john 11:23 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   

U.K. mfg PMI shockingly weak. Click on icon to view.

GVI Forex john 11:21 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   

BOJ Quarterly Tankan Survey pretty grim. Click on icon to view.

London NYAM 11:15 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Thanks Navin although its a long way between here and 1.9900 which would have to break to elevate the liklihood that cable has finally found a m/t cap. gtgl

eu kaprikorn 11:15 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
man, I'm jus the next guy who is learning here - the only thing is set your loss limit and adjust it on the way down so you don't lose money - then think of profit
I don't set profit targets..

Granada-España 11:12 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
shorted EurUsd 1.5800, dont know target.
Kapri, opinion??

eu kaprikorn 11:11 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Livingston nh .......
sir, do you not consider it might be a tough resistance /200dma/ and the retreat would be the line of least resistance?

Mumbai Navin 11:10 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Nyam - 2.0020 is some resistance level in my system and i like your stop level!!

GENEVA DS 11:10 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
yes, it is daily, weekly time frame... short term, the scalps will continue to be BETTER on the downside

eu kaprikorn 11:08 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
nice to see you on the short side myself shorted good amaounts above 1.58 and 2.00
daily charts:
eurgbp looks like flatline and could drop like stone..
eurusd is at the range high but this unenthusiastic price action here think tells smtg..
gbpusd - well this one now bumped the so very important 200day MA and it was a good straight advance all the way from 1.94..
anyway if EURGBP drop however this will support somewhat the GBP..

Richmond Dennis 11:06 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   

so long as mkt continues to ignore/downplay EZ, UK, JPN, etal economic data and focus on US banking issues and interest rate differentials you may be right but it is only a matter of time before the GER "juggernaut economy" grinds down as it export market wither.

Bris 11:04 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
GENEVA DS 10:53 GMT July 1, 2008

Who is Kaplan and Cie ?
cannot find on google

eu kaprikorn 11:04 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
DS .........
hi I see your timeframe is daily > weekly ..
but I like the contrarian style you show - always go against the obvious..
btw - I liked very much what Kovner said in Market Wizards:
smtg like he kept a report of such writers with large following so that when he went into market there would be a good bunch of mistaken participants..

London NYAM 11:03 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
st TL violation switched to short cable 1.9987 stop2.0018 target half 1.9949

could either have been a terminal 5 or an irregular b (on tiny time frames

GENEVA DS 10:53 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
strange feeling that WEIMAR & Cie. has restarted with full force and USD-DEVALUATION against everything is a done deal... ie. GOLD higher, OIL higher, EURUSD higher , GBPUSD higher and AUDUSD much higher... market is NOT !!!! short USD, most want to play the so hardly awaited correction in Commodities and USD..., another sign... Prechter, Mahendra, Kaplan and Cie... all see turn to upside for USD.... not a very good sign normally if everybody agrees... anyway... we will keep very flexible ,,, have a good one everybody !

London NYAM 10:51 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 10:43//Depends on the scale I supose. On very short time frames (i am trading cable that way) the slow grind is ok for continued upward pressure as long as i stays above its trend lines. On gbpusd there is a growing st lilihood that we wont hold above 2.00 without a break to check the low 1.99 areas for buying interest (or actually more likely shorters escaping losses). On longer time frames (4hr daily chart) cables moves are still pretty choppy hinting at a potential triangle whose slope has yet to be established although i favour a downward slope. EURUSD has not really shown the flight it should yet but it has also maintained its trendlines.Its still a buy on dips but im not enthusiastic over its leverage as it could follow gbp into a triangle as well.

eu kaprikorn 10:47 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
anyway little test here:
short eurusd 1.5799
short gbpusd 1.9996 -
--short lease on these tentative positions

US SW 10:46 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
instead of selling the eurusd in the near future, I have decided to long the usdchf, mainly because of rollover/thinking this maybe a long term trade w/leverage strategy

eu kaprikorn 10:43 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
good trade mgmt!
seems I made many mistakes both overtrading and also I was more BIASED to the short side from yest..

just wanted to comment with you do you see this slow grind in eur & gbp as a sign of weakness of the ST trend?
or it actually is the opposite: steady movement?
what are your thoughts?

London NYAM 10:21 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
HALF OFF LONG GBPUSD AT 1.9998 stop raised to 1.9969

US SW 10:19 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
shorted the nzdchf @ 7741...looking for 120 pips/stop 7800

GVI Forex john 10:18 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   

PAR 10:10 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
European , German , French and Spanish banking shares sharply lower on increased fears of bank bancrupties.

US SW 10:04 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 09:54 GMT July 1, 2008

sorry, for the Typo...LACK OF RESPECT

US SW 10:03 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
(IGM)[OIL] up around Usd from session open levels to Usd 142 as the latest fro...
[OIL] up around Usd from session open levels to Usd 142 as the latest from the Iran Israel dispute hits mkts with a Kuwaiti official saying that it is drawing up contingency plans should Iran shut the strait of Hormuz, as threatened by the Revolutionary Guard Commander at the weekend in the event of an Israeli strike - this follows an ABC report that Pentagon official fear a strike by the end of the yr. While this mid-East tension continues, there is little prospect of oil seeing any significant dip with Usd 139.17 providing initial support on NYMEX.

US SW 09:54 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
LA 09:49 GMT July 1, 2008
GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT July 1, 2008

Oh. I'm so sorry...

You just should a lack of respect for this forum...

LA 09:49 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT July 1, 2008

Oh. I'm so sorry...

US SW 09:47 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
usdchf/ may test new yearly lows before Thursdays data

US SW 09:45 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
nzdch...looks week here @ 7744..../looking to test 7700

Amsterdam Purk 09:44 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Sorry that i ever mentioned this 95555 in aud/usd because it keeps on coming back.. oops did it again. Got new levels now.
Have still 9530000 sharp and 9660 sharp.
Cable: 9921 to keep in mind. e/u is a jojo.
Lotsa Negamen around. They radiate.

GVI Forex john 09:38 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
LA- read the forum rules. Spamming is not permitted.

PAR 09:32 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
LONDON, July 1 (Reuters) - European stocks further extended losses in mid-morning trade on Tuesday as a sell-off in banks worsened on the back of heightened fears of further losses in the sector.

By 0904 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index was down 1.98 percent at 1,177.60 points, having fallen by as much as 2.05 percent to hit session lows.

Banks were the largest weighted decliners, with Deutsche Bak (DBKGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) shedding 5 percent amid rumours of a profit warning. Deutsche declined to comment. UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) also traded 5 percent lower as Merrill Lynch removed the stock from its "Europe 1 List, while HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 3.2 percent and UniCredit (CRDI.MI: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 4.1 percent.

"It's a combination of profit warning talk at Deutsche, rumours late yesterday of writedowns at UBS -- now trading below the rights price -- and the Lehman rumours in the United States," said a trader in London.

"And then the (euro zone) inflation numbers yesterday make it look very likely that Trichet will raise rates, which is bad for equities, the dollar and manufacturing," he added. The European Central Bank delivers its decision on monetary policy on Thursday.

(Reporting by Patrizia Kokot and Sitaraman Shankar)

US SW 09:29 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Haifa ac 09:26 GMT July 1, 2008

just posting the news...anyways I though that The 100.00 Oil predictions were a joke when it was trading in the 50's in 2006...nothing would suprise me at this point...

Haifa ac 09:26 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 09:22 GMT July 1//
What a joke. Israel today does not have the guts to free Gilad Shalit --You think POS olmert will risk losing tens of pilots? This government is totally GUTLESS.
People are dreaming. Or just manipulating oil.

US SW 09:24 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Meanwhile, another senior US commander said any Iranian move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz would be considered an "act of war" (Bahrain media).

if this happen, Oil would shoot to 250.00 in a blink of an eye/scary reality

Como Perrie 09:23 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
other heavy bad news for UBS around

US SW 09:22 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
(IGM)[IRAN/ISRAEL UPDATE] ABC quotes a senior US defence official who says there...
[IRAN/ISRAEL UPDATE] ABC quotes a senior US defence official who says there is an "increasing likelihood" Israel will attack before year-end, which could prompt Iranian retaliation vs Israel and the US also. The official talks of two 'red lines', which could tempt Israel to move. These are the prospect of the Natanz nuclear facility producing enough highly enriched uranium to make a nuclear weapon in 2009 and Iran's purchase of an SA-20 air defence system from Russia. Pentagon officials believe the large IAF exercise in early June was to prepare for a possible attack, while recent senior military meets between Israel and the US have centred on the Iran nuclear topic. Meanwhile, another senior US commander said any Iranian move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz would be considered an "act of war" (Bahrain media).

eu kaprikorn 09:21 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
squared all positions.

US SW 09:21 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
went long gbpusd here @ 19983/target 20070 /stop19945

Syd 09:19 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
EU Trade Unions: ECB Rate Hike Risks Sharper Econ Slowdown
EU Trade Unions: ECB Fear Of Wage Hikes "Unfounded"

PAR 09:15 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
French bank shares keep crashing out of fear of more trouble ahead.

US SW 09:09 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 09:08 GMT July 1, 2008

thx for Your insight...GT

London NYAM 09:08 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
SW/I posted this yesterday:
Cable's break means not alot unless it breaks the 1.99666, but if it can (probably will) break then 2.0017 extension and 2.0023 .618 retrace on daily looks good then 2.0080 cluster.
I would add this Daily fib resistances are at 2.0000-2.0015 and 2.0151-2.0170
Extension target from what looks like a b wave from the highs 2.0192
4hr ext comes in at 2.0205 which is saying the next major magnate if a break over 2.0015 area holds would extend this move to 2.0190-2.0230 break the upper band and we should shoot straight to 2.0350-2.0410. I would not think that level would break but much depends on the behavior of the EUR (ie will it break through 1.61?).

eu kaprikorn 09:03 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
added more shorts:
eurusd 1.5755
gbpusd 1.9976

US SW 08:54 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
maybe long the EuroYen when the Carry is trading under 10541*

US SW 08:53 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
LA 08:50 GMT July 1, 2008

Promises Promises, I highly doubt that anyone would trust your claims of 20 percent a month to your clients...If your that good, maybe you should share your trades here, before anything...GL

Syd 08:48 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Aussie: A Short Set−up Developing

Syd 08:46 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Dow Jones] There has been nothing to choose between GBP and the USD in the first half of 2008, says Commerzbank, with both losing around 3% on a trade-weighted basis against a basket of major currencies. However, looks for cable to struggle in the months ahead with the $2 handle bringing out the sellers. So it recommends hedging and tactical sales into and above $2 as this level looks unsustainable. On the downside, Commerzbank looks for $1.88-$1.87 in coming months.

US SW 08:46 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
(IGM)[EUR/USD] has ticked lower most recently. This could be in solidarity...
[EUR/USD] has ticked lower most recently. This could be in solidarity with Gbp's post PMI shocker selloff, but there is also talk of a [GERMAN BANK] profit warning doing the rounds. We have received no confirmation so far, but the DAX is now 1% down, and the chatter follows the earlier WSJ article, which suggested UBS is expected to announce aQ2 profit warning due to a possible net loss of Chf 4bln, Chf 5.5bln writedowns during the period.

eu kaprikorn 08:45 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
added shorts:
eurusd 1.5759
gbpusd 1.9961/4

US SW 08:43 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
JGB yeilds rocketing

how will this effect currency???/anyone care to share there ideas

Syd 08:42 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: UK June Mfg PMI 45.8 Vs 49.5 In May - Sources

US SW 08:41 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 08:40 GMT July 1, 2008

at what level would you consider going short the gbpusd

US SW 08:40 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
EuroUsd Maybe a great Long before ISM....I bought here @ 15760 with a stop @ 15645 and a target of 15810

London NYAM 08:40 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Small long GBPUSD 1.9959 stop 1.9928 target 2.0025
took small off GBPJPY short here at 211.15 but mostly still short after stopout for 1/3 211.70 this am.

eu kaprikorn 08:39 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
last position update and i will leave them for a bit more since they adhere to my original scenario:
short eurusd 1.5760
short gbpusd 1.9954 - stops above..

US SW 08:38 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
early strategy before ism

start accumilating a short postion *gbpusd

look for further weakness on the EuroYen

audusd is a long on mojo

gbpaud is a short on the 4 hour chart

eu kaprikorn 08:36 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
tnx for the advice -- seems I made the obvious first mistake - overtraded..
it is funny that I tried to outsmart the market and now I see the fool is me - killed the winners, kept the losers and all the other mistakes the average sucker does all the time...
gotta rest a bit so that I get better focused..

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 08:35 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:30 GMT July 1, 2008

good day ... it's not the 27 nations, it's about the the differences between the 27 nations ... lunch can tell the story, just compare between North European lunch and South European lunch ... I think it's so simple :)

Como Perrie 08:30 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
You'd better slow donw month end/beginning with your trading as the market does not behaves much normal..less liquid, fund arrangments et all

so far euro 27 nations is too much so most probably eurozone will be cut decently into two blocks somewhere within 2009..or even earlier

LA 08:28 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
based on my analysis using the Hybrid Trading System, the GC,GJ,UJ,UC and CJ should be dropping.Therefore i'm not looking for the GU to drop! could drop for a while during this session...

eu kaprikorn 08:27 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
I took out the short GBPUSD and reversed to long:
eurusd 1.5767 - stop ~ 1.5740..

it looks very messy my trading today.. sorry for numerous posts..

eu kaprikorn 08:19 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
tentative short now:
gbpusd 1.9987 - stop 2.0015

eu kaprikorn 08:16 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 08:10 ......
hey i get IGM on my platform but seems the flow is different..
good info there - let's see what SAFE means cuz I read a lot about the line of least resistance - that is if everybody is bullish they will easily go for the SAFE stops..
let's see!

LA 08:11 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
I wish to work in a HedgeFund or Start a Managed Account Program. I could make good returns monthly... at least 280% annual profits... If there's a good offer, please kindly reach me at [email protected] I use the strategy outlined here .

I trade based on pure price action.

US SW 08:10 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
(IGM)There is talk of stops building in decent size, including stop entries fr...
There is talk of stops building in decent size, including stop entries from models through 1.5720, but these levels look safe for now.

PAR 08:08 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
0802 GMT [Dow Jones] Euro-zone manufacturing activity contracted on the month in June, with the purchasing managers index dropping to 49.2 from 50.6 in May. A level above 50 signals an expansion in manufacturing, while a level below 50 signals a contraction. The German manufacturing PMI was 52.6 in June, down from 53.6 in May. French manufacturing PMI 49.2 in June from 51.5 in May - its lowest level since May 2005. Italian manufacturing activity recorded a sharper-than-expected drop to 46.9 from 48.0. Spanish manufacturing activity dropped to a ten-year low of 40.6 in June from 43.8 in May. (EMC)

eu kaprikorn 08:08 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
hmm scaled out 1/3 more of the shorts - 1.5763

it is really stupid to get scared at those little movements but I was leveraged way too much for the unvonvincing price action we see atm..

it is easy to get back once I have confirmation:
hourly 50MA caps the price 1.5763.. from yesterday and a breach will signal test of highs for me..
> I see gold & crude advancing slowly but steady on 4H charts..

Syd 08:03 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Dow Jones)--The European Central Bank ought to consider the impact its monetary policy has on the economy, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck reiterated Tuesday.

Steinbrueck's comments come just before the June gathering of the ECB's rate-setting governing council.

The ECB has indicated that it could raise its key interest rate Thursday to 4.25% from 4% currently and is widely expected to do so.

"The ECB must bear in mind that an interest rate hike could send the wrong signal because it could have a pro-cyclical effect on a slowdown of the economy," Steinbrueck was quoted as saying in an interview with German weekly Der Spiegel published Saturday.

Steinbrueck told reporters Tuesday that he respects the ECB's independence, but added that his expectations for economic growth in 2009 are more cautious than for 2008.

eu kaprikorn 08:01 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
BA mades 07:51 .....
hmm strange as my other platform really gives me 200dma 1.9874..
think it is a matter of which close they use...
for best results use this one:

GV database gives 200 day ma at 1.9985.

LA 08:01 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
madrid 07:59 GMT July 1, 2008

:) Impossible.. . this is a nice forum..

Richmond Dennis 08:00 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
dc CB 01:54 GMT July 1, 2008

How Nevil Shute or Philip Wylie!

madrid 07:59 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
LA 07:56 GMT July 1, 2008

NICE !!! 8-)

In here we make 2365% per day minimum !!!


LA 07:56 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
I wish to work in a HedgeFund or Start a Managed Account Program. I could make good returns monthly... at least 280% annual profits... If there's a good offer, please kindly reach me at [email protected] I use the strategy outlined here .

I trade based on pure price action.


US SW 07:52 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
(IGM)[OIL] ticking up after a bout of profit taking into the NY Usd 143.67 rec...
[OIL] ticking up after a bout of profit taking into the NY Usd 143.67 record high that saw a Usd 139.95 low in the Asian session. Oil since then bubbling back up to Usd 141.43. The Saudi king reported in the local press saying increased supply will not help, while Iran has intimated that OPEC is powerless in the current situation and mkts oversupplied. But in addition Iran noting that prices volatility is harmful to both cons and prods. Algeria has played on demand uncertainty to validate OPEC's "wait and see", noting also OPEC to increase capacity by 4 mn bpd by 2012. But another militant attack in Nigeria has kept this part of the combo in focus even though Shell Nigeria expects the Bonga field to be back up in full prod with days. ABC News in the US saying Pentagon officials fearing an Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear facilities before yr end has kept up the geo-political risk premium.

BA mades 07:51 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
EU Kaprikorn: Which settings u use for daily 200ma? Because mine (200ma simple, close) on GU shows 19889..

eu kaprikorn 07:48 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
and btw - this spike in gbpusd was largely due to the unwinding in EURGBP...
gbpusd now stalled and it looks like the perfect Bull Trap with average Joe sees it veery easy for 2.00 and longs the top..
I watch for an opportunity to short it with stop above the high..
I never know.. just try to get some good probabilities..

PAR 07:47 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
*DJ Italian Jun Mfg PMI 46.9 - Sources
*DJ Italian May Mfg PMI Was 48.0

LA 07:46 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
I wish to work in a HedgeFund or Start a Managed Account Program. I could make good returns monthly... at least 280% annual profits... If there's a good offer, please kindly reach me at [email protected]

I use the strategy outlined here


Maribor 07:44 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
GBPAUD turned again - accumulate short positions...
GBPUSD close to 2,0 - good sell for ~1,979.
GBPJPY - important target may be @206,4...

Good trades...

eu kaprikorn 07:30 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
got a bit scared and scaled out 1/3 of the short eurusd at 1.5750 - holding 2/3 now to see how it goes:

we have at present 1.5777 - 1.5723> 50 pips range so possible targets are 1.5850 High or 1.5646 (10 Day MA)..

interesing that GBPUSD is very bullish but 200-DayMA is at 1.9984 and it caps the move -- don't have idea for how long but look at USDJPY and see how it consolidated for 10!! days just under the 200 DayMA -- pivotal 108 level... so it is good that we might see 2.00 and above tests but intil we have a close above...
>> not sure why I reacted yesterday but my participation here is strictly for learning and exchange of knowledge -- hope I can give some after those years I got a lot from the members of the forum!

eu kaprikorn 07:18 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
hi mate, not sure on which tomeframe you consider but I see on 4H charts some previous top that lent support around 1.5640/55
-- this coincides with the 10-DMA on Daily chart so I suppose if this drop now really goes down it will meet good Support around there..
but since I look and there is no point until there and it looks too easy Im cautious cuz easy is always wrong..
Gold around 929/30 and Crude 142.40 interim high on 4H charts if again broken on the upside will make me consider the long way..
not sure if it helps or is clear enough as I now see my scenario didn't go as expected... and will have to protect the short position that didn't get the continuation on the test of the 1.5729/31 last lows..

US SW 07:09 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 07:04 GMT July 1, 2008

support 15670 agree?

eu kaprikorn 07:09 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
ok -- this is some confirmation..
added 1/2 position short eurusd 1.5725

eu kaprikorn 07:04 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
for the ST I watch the 1.5727/31 lows
doubled the short position now at 1.5733
but if the ST lows hold will act accordingly..

SIN MA 07:03 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
gbp touching 2.00 very soon

eu kaprikorn 06:58 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
eu kaprikorn 22:03 GMT June 30, 2008
new low-leveraged tentative shorts now:
eurusd 1.5754 - 1.5794
gbpusd 1.9933 - 1.9966
think the EURGBP shows the way:
gbpusd short was stopped at 1.9962 - seems I made a mistake

just added more shorts eurusd 1.5744

US SW 06:29 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
(IGM)[FOCUS COMMENT] - The first piece of the EU jigsaw has arrived in the shape ...
[FOCUS COMMENT] - The first piece of the EU jigsaw has arrived in the shape of better than expected German May retail sales, with upward revisions also seen for Apr. PMI's o come led by Spain at 7.15GMT and forecast at a dismal 43.5 in June. See page.

madrid 06:25 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
* French President Nicolas Sarkozy says ECB should look at growth and not focus soley on inflation. Euro 30% overvalued vs USD. (France takes over EU Presidency for next 6-months).

* WSJ: Lehman Bros shares tumbled to lowest level since 2000 on speculation that the firm is in trouble, including possibly having to sell itself for a bargain-basement price.

*BASEL (Reuters) - Volatility in foreign exchange trading jumped in August 2007 as the credit crisis broke but a broadened investor base helped the market to cope, the Bank of International Settlement said in a report on Monday.

*Zimbabwe: Banks Use Depositors' Money to Buy Forex../.. Depositors are allowed to withdraw Z$25 billion per day.

*TABLE-IMF data on world FX reserves in Q1 2008. -
Developing nations ARE LEADING BY SO MUCH 8-)

* CHICAGO, June 30 (Reuters) - CME Group revised its grain trading hours on the eve of the July 4 Independence Day holiday after pit traders complained over the extra 75 minutes granted to business done on the electronic trading platform.

*We are all oil traders now .

*Norges Bank to buy 960 mln crowns/day of forex in July for oil fund investments. /

* WSJ: UBS AG is likely to issue a profit warning for Q2 as the market for mortgage-backed securities keeps deteriorating and trouble at its private bank mounts, analysts say.

* Tokyo land prices +17.5%, Japan national wide average land prices +10.0% in 2007.
NICE . IT REMINDS ME MARK TWAIN 'S QUOTE " Buy land, they're not making it anymore." 8-)

* Fresh waves of USD/JPY, EUR/JPY selling in Asia afternoon session.

*EUR support at 1.5700-20, stops blw..

Nikkei +0.04% or +5.65pts at 13,487.03. JGBs lower post BoJ Tankan, 10-year yield +0.085% at 1.675%.
Crude off all time highs of $143.67, at $140.41.
Gold off 1-m highs $922.50/923.50.

Two cows are standing in a field.
One says to the other "Are you worried about Mad Cow Disease?"
The other one says "No, It doesn't worry me, I'm a horse!"

have a great day !!

US SW 06:22 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
gbp/usd...shorts getting pounded, but maybe short lived

US SW 06:13 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Im currently selling the EuroYen at 16610../think it will break 16600 though...

Syd 06:09 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
AUD trigger for slip in other JPY-crosses as RBA shifts to neutral stance, says Tokyo trader. Says, "players were expecting a more hawkish stance and had been previously buying the Australian dollar on such expectations." RBA's more neutral stance disappoints, prompting players to take profits, causing AUD/JPY tumble to session low of 100.96, could cause further fall toward 100, he says. Still, "it's not like monetary policy has suddenly shifted to a rate cut or anything like that, so after initial reaction, markets are likely to calm down again," he says. AUD/JPY last at 101.03. Other JPY-crosses falling in tandem; AUD/JPY fall reinforced already existing USD/JPY downtrend

US SW 06:07 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Dollar looks week here expect against the Hong Kong Dollar...looks like we test 15900 on the eurusd today...the usdjpy long will suffer imo..GL all...

madrid 05:54 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
hello and good morning FX Jedi !


Mad, adj. Affected with a high degree of intellectual independence.
Ambrose Bierce

US SW 05:53 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
(IGM)[DLR/YEN] holds well around the figure despite the better than expected T...
[DLR/YEN] holds well around the figure despite the better than expected Tankan results (good bids must be there), as the low is limited at 105.97 so far. Yesterday's formation is like a cross formation with bottomish long wick downside, so the 105's today may not be the sell zone initially, or if the market confirms the repeated heaviness at 106.20-30 or 40-50, then next downside move can start.


GENEVA DS 05:43 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore.... pleasure... infact sometimes I forget , that most are trading on such a short time (only some minutes) that it does not really matter the big picture... but hopefully everyone makes tons of money like that... good trades and thanks for your contribution.

Lahore FM 05:40 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
GENEVA DS 05:36 GMT July 1, 2008
Lahore FM 05:12 GMT July 1, 2008
DS,i infact do realize that what is sell for every single joe may not be a sell at all.all things considered i find aud sell on crosses and that's about all i am interested in now.i don't minud if audusd goes to 1.0000 or 1.0500.happy trades as always.good to see you here!

GENEVA DS 05:36 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM 05:12 GMT July 1, 2008
aud has become an even better cross sell.

?? since we are hearing that AUD is a sell, there is already many month over.... it all started already one year ago... but since then AUD was the best performer.... with some blips to be expected and unless we tank under 9450... AUD still headed for initially 1.00 then higher later this fall..

US SW 05:29 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
EuroYen is week not attempt to Buy Here...let the dust settle...!

Syd 05:15 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
The Reserve Bank of Australia held steady its target for the overnight cash rate at 7.25% Tuesday, highlighting tentative signs of a slowdown in employment growth and increased confidence that demand will moderate in the year ahead.

Economists said the central bank delivered a more neutral commentary accompanying the interest rate decision, reducing expectations of any further tightening of monetary policy in the current cycle.

Lahore FM 05:12 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
aud has become an even better cross sell.

Syd 04:56 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
RBA Statement Line By Line Less Hawkish

0455 GMT [Dow Jones] Looking at RBA statement line by line, there's plenty of evidence of move to neutral compared with June statement: RBA adds a line that "the most recent flow of information has given additional support" to RBA's expectation that demand will moderate. RBA also adds line that there are "some tentative signs of an easing in labor market conditions", while removing warning in June statement that if demand doesn't slow as expected or high inflation expectations affect wages, prices, then RBA would review outlook. All up, statement points to softer stance to RBA.

Syd 04:51 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
NZD/AUD Jumps As RBA Tones Down Hawkish Rhetoric

Syd 04:25 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Confidence among New Zealand workers fell to a four-year low in the second quarter, suggesting further job losses to come, as the country's economy continues a rapid slowdown, a private sector survey showed Tuesday.

The Westpac McDermott Miller employment confidence index fell eight points to 120.8 in the June quarter - the biggest quarterly decline since the survey's inception in June 2004.

While the current level showed confidence remains in optimistic territory, the overall survey indicated the recent sharp downturn in economy is starting hurt worker sentiment.

Mumbai Navin 03:33 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Good piece from a sales guy..

The IMF has just released Q1 data on central bank FX reserves. These are the

1) Global reserves increased by a record $477bn during the quarter to $6.87tn.
The 7.5% percentage gain is the third largest, surpassed only when Japan last intervened in USD/JPY in 2004/2005. The gain in reserves over the past four quarters now stands at $1.5tn. CBs continue to pump massive amounts of liquidity into the global financial system.

2) CBs appeared to sell euros for the first time since Q2 2006. Only $252bn of the aggregate $477bn increase was allocated to individual currencies (China does not detail its currency allocation to the IMF). Of this, Euro reserves rose by $84.7bn compared to an increase of $60bn in Q4. But without revaluation effects (EUR/USD appreciated from 1.46 to 1.58 in Q1), the value of euro reserves actually fell by $5.1bn.

Far from diversifying into euros, it appears that CBs rebalanced their portfolios in the face of sharp euro appreciation to keep the value of their euro holdings from rising too fast. The data thus validates the market's impression that CBs stood aside as EUR/USD first moved towards 1.60 and is a reminder that CB demand for euros is level dependent. By buying dips quite aggressively and standing aside at the higher levels, CBs are tending to reinforce the current range in EUR/USD.

3) CB demand for GBP remains strong. GBP reserves rose by $12.8bn or 5% of the total. Cable barely moved in the quarter so this increase reflects a genuine inflow to GBP. This inflow effectively financed 75-140% of the UK's (shrinking) current account deficit in the quarter. Over the past four quarters GBP FX reserves have grown by $52bn. Allowing for unallocated reserves, this suggests CBs have financed 45-80% of the UK's current a/c deficit. That official demand for GBP has been unaffected by the UK's financial and housing market problems is a testimony to GBP's unique appeal to CBs as a liquid-high yielding asset.
This is yet another reason why I disagree with the bearish consensus towards GBP.

4) Japanese FX reserves rose by a record $17.2bn. 85% of this gain, though, reflected the Q1 collapse in USD/JPY - there is no evidence of increased CB interest in JPY as a reserve asset, and none is to be expected so long as JPY yields remain derisory.

Paul Meggyesi

Iquique AJ 03:04 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
CHF , YEN, EurChf looking like longs
Oil , EurYen , Aussi look like shorts.

Syd 02:21 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
The Chinese government may raise resource taxes on zinc, lead, copper and tungsten - Securities Daily
- The changes would be effective on Aug 1 and the current tax will rise to CNY20/ton from CNY4.

Syd 02:18 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Brisbane Flip 02:08 exactly - one sided as always

Syd 02:16 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Brisbane Flip , well just reading CBs report on what could happen IF ... and the scary thing is it could - just wondering what the rest of the world will do though because they all use the black stuff

dc CB 01:54 GMT

Brisbane Flip 02:08 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd 01:23 GMT July 1, 2008

Maybe the government should send them a bill for the price of Australia's participation in the "coalition of the willing" the past 5 years?

dc CB 01:54 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Piling on the Hersch New Yorker story. Here's a grim scenario. How do you trade this.

Syd 01:27 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
NZ market seems to be underpricing risk of July rate cut with only 8 bps worth of easing built-in, says ANZ Bank economists; "we could well see the market rethink July following next week's...Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion survey, which is expected to show broad-based weakness and easing resource pressures." Continues to favor going long September bank bill futures as a play on potential July rate cut.

Syd 01:23 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
The Iraqi Government is suing Australia's former monopoly wheat exporter, the Australian Wheat Board as well as dozens of other companies over the now discredited United Nations oil-for-food program.It alleges they cheated the Iraqi people out of billions of dollars, all of which could have been used for food, medicine and other goods.

The lawsuit says the corruption of the UN oil-for-food program "affected the lives and health of the Iraqi people".

The Iraqi Government is seeking damages of more than $10 billion.

Syd 01:22 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Australian Investor Confidence Deteriorated In 2Q - Survey

CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--Investor confidence in Australia deteriorated further in the second quarter, according to a private sector survey issued Tuesday.

The Australian Chamber of Commerce & Industry/SAI Global index of national economic conditions fell to a seasonally adjusted 57.4 points in the three months through June from 61.6 in the first quarter of 2008. The index was at 69.3 in the same quarter a year earlier.

Several measures, such as investment, sales and profits, eased during the quarter, indicating a slowing economy, Greg Evans, ACCI's director of industry and economics, said in an accompanying statement.

"The survey shows that interest rate increases and domestic and international financial sector difficulties continue to pose a threat to the Australian economy," Evans said.

"Looking ahead, expectations and confidence have fallen considerably, suggesting that businesses will be proceeding cautiously over the next few months," he said.

An index level above 50 indicates that business conditions are improving, while a level below 50 shows conditions are deteriorating.

Syd 01:12 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Olympic nightmare: A red tide in the Yellow Sea

Traditional Chinese medicine could be a remedy for failure at Olympics

Syd 00:51 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
Australia new home sales fell 5% in May, further confirming rapid slowdown in housing sector so far in 2008, according to Housing Industry Association; detached house sales down 5.3% in May, while multiunit sales fell by 2.4%. New homes sales results for 2008 to date confirm renewed cyclical weakness evident across range of leading indicators reflecting aggressive tightening in monetary conditions seen over last 12 months. Weakness in housing will likely satisfy RBA that current rate settings eyed adequate to slow economy, contain inflation

Aussie Manufacturing Slumps Into A Deeper Hole

2347 GMT [Dow Jones] A slowdown in Australia's manufacturing industry intensified in June, an industry survey shows; AIG-PricewaterhouseCoopers PMI down 4.2 points in June from May to 47 points. Production, employment, new orders all fell solidly in June, while inventory growth remained firm. Pressure on manufacturing from factors such as high AUD, interest rates and weaker global economy being compounded on supply side by rapid increases in costs of fuel, other key inputs such as steel, agricultural goods. Sharply slowing manufacturing sector could be a factor for RBA board meeting. RBA expected to leave rates on hold, communicate slightly less hawkish tone to markets; outcome known at 0430 GMT

Syd 00:47 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   

Syd 00:44 GMT July 1, 2008 Reply   
UK Chancellor Darling is trying to prevent banks from having to pay billions of pounds into a new scheme to protect savers' deposits - FT


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Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



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