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Forex Forum Archive for 08/1/2008

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west hills 22:50 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
still have a short position open for the eur/usd whats up for the open on sunday ????????

Syd 22:25 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Australian dollar vs US Dollar Emerging consensus on AUD: Several Australian press reports suggest that the RBA may have pushed rates too high as an insurance policy
- The argument: Some argue that the RBA pushed interest rates higher than the ideal level, as insurance in case demand didn't slow fast enough. Now that economic data has demonstrated that demand is slowing quicker than anticipated, the RBA can take back the insurance and cut interest rates

USA ZEUS 19:34 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Dag Namit!
Just looked and saw more opportunity cost for early exits. Pips are pips but Judas Priest man!

Ft. Lauderdale gb 19:02 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
closed out all EU/USD shorts from earlier today, major pips, closed down for the weekend, best to all, see you all Monday.

gb

Gen dk 18:44 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LA BV 18:43 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Market has had it for this wekk!

USA ZEUS 17:55 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS 14:22 GMT August 1, 2008
Crude oil rally driving FX at 128.50 is getting pretty toppy...Let's see...

Ok- Crude oil at 124.47. Done with that too!
Guess what works...works


Cheers!

US SW 17:15 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
gbpaud still on fire....not to be sold!

LKWD JJ 17:06 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
AL another gbp monthly close at 1.98 handle.

USA ZEUS 17:02 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
All squared up and bolting for the weekend

Syd 16:10 GMT August 1, 2008
I have been told similar time frame. Never know for sure so I just take the signals. However, anticipation is very important. Thanks for that and all that you post. Very helpful.

singapore td 16:09 GMT August 1, 2008
It could get very interesting. I do see something brewing for next weeks as well.

Maribor 16:08 GMT August 1, 2008
Overall market cycle shift towards a big picture USD rally. Me thinks the portfolios have been working on this for months now and could accelerate relatively soon.

Cheers to you all and have a fantastic weekend!

dc CB 16:45 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Mercedes-Benz reports 11.6% increase for July sales.
This brings the year-to-date total to 140,012 units, marking a 2.3 percent increase over the same period last year and setting the new record for MBUSA year-to-date sales.

Syd 16:10 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS 16:04 GMT hearing the same but for some reason centred around US Labor Day ? any view on that

singapore td 16:09 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS 16:04 GMT August 1, 2008

agree with that Zeus, a very systematic approach to keep usd hovering high, more to come for usd this round

Maribor 16:08 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Zeus, I do not understand...can you say it with different words?

USA ZEUS 16:04 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
They don't want you to know this but a massive USD rally is near...phase 2.

Noticed LA, GC and Sing Jet

USA ZEUS 16:01 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Nearly $ 3.5 trio delta from the top for proven reserves

USA ZEUS 15:59 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
WTI Crude Oil 125.11 / / /

singapore td 15:44 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
euro is heading to 1.5370 if 1.56 caps

USA ZEUS 15:34 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS 14:22 GMT August 1, 2008
Crude oil rally driving FX at 128.50 is getting pretty toppy...Let's see...


Crude oil now at 125.90. Hmmmm...

Syd 15:30 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Aussie rates will targe 5.5 per cent once they start cutting - Rudd talking recession possible not good but I cant take him seriously :-))

US SW 15:19 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
the audusd may fall futher., possibly to 9250 in the next couple trading days, but I feel we, will revisist 9700+ so I believe this is not risky trade, due to the coming strengh in Gold...fighting the trend can be rewarwarding

US SW 15:11 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
starting to buy the audusd to 97oo

Amsterdam Purk 15:11 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Trust everybody waited for the aud/usd to have done the overshooting. Might see another overshoot, but doing the long thing here.

Syd 15:03 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Maribor 14:58 GMT would like to see below 93 will have to play the waiting game again thanks for your guide GT

USA ZEUS 15:03 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
The democrats prepare to destroy business. Another brilliant idea from the socialists' leading puppet that earlier proposed sending all commodity speculators to Gitmo-
-
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Friday called for a $1,000 "emergency" rebate to consumers to offset soaring energy costs amid fresh signs of a struggling economy with the nation's unemployment rate climbing to a four-year high.

Obama told a town-hall meeting the rebate would be financed with a windfall profits tax on the oil industry.

Maribor 15:01 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Also, I have one target @95 for NZDJPY - can go away first...

Maribor 14:58 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd, my guess pressure will stop once EURAUD reaches ~1,678, but it is just a guess...speculators are net long, so not much incentive for price to rise...

Syd 14:41 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Maribor gdy do you see a blow out on the downside for the aud before it recovers , seems to be sold into at the moment cheers

Syd 14:37 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
The NZD is suffering broad-based weakness and Barclays Capital says it's becoming even more negative on NZD/USD. A weekly close below 0.7370 will target trendline support at 0.7245 and then 0.6980 and possibly even 0.6640 says the bank. The latter would become more of a possibility if NZD/JPY closes below its 7-year trendline support at 78.10, which opens risk toward 68.00 on a 6-month horizon.

Amsterdam Purk 14:36 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW

Leave it, and use energy for trading. No use.

US SW 14:35 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
B.A. BOCA 14:23 GMT August 1, 2008

BLA BLA

B.A. BOCA 14:23 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
funny that you are complaining about lack of guts when it seems that you yourself are incapable of forming your own decisions..

this forum should be about sharing ideas, not looking for free advice

US SW 12:58 GMT August 1, 2008
..can someone with some balls please give me some direction were the the eurusd maybe headed...thx

USA ZEUS 14:22 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Crude oil rally driving FX at 128.50 is getting pretty toppy...Let's see...

Ft. Lauderdale gb 14:10 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
massively shorted Eu/USD here

Syd 14:08 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
JULY ISM MANUFACTURING: 50 V 49E; PRICE PAID: 88.5 V 88E- Employment Index 51.9 v 43.7 prior

US SW 13:57 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
[OUTLOOK FOR ISM FACTORY DATA] Coming after the jobs report means the ISM report may draw less interest than usual, but it is still well worth a look. The July ISM factory report is due at 14gmt, with expectations for the headline index centered on 49.6, little changed from June's 50.2.

HK Kevin 13:48 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
For NZD, 0.7245 is the trendline support linking the low 0.5926 on the week of 26 Jun 2006 and another low 0.6640 on the week of 13 Aug 2007. Small limit long order at 0.7255 hit earlier, looking for testing the broken 100ma trendline at 0.7377 first next week. NOw move stop to a little below today's low.

Ft. Lauderdale gb 13:46 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
correction, typo, 20+ pips, sorry, will look for top and short it down :)

US SW 13:46 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
I believe that audusd still have further room to fall, and Cable still has room to retrace to 199oo is possible..with that said..I sqared upp my gbpauda and reversed my postion to Long with a tp 21270 SL 21020

US SW 13:43 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Ft. Lauderdale gb 13:42 GMT August 1, 2008


out as well for 20 pips...thinking that Zeus is right on this one...

Ft. Lauderdale gb 13:42 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
all out EU/USD for overall 30+ pips, nice start to my day :-)

US SW 13:39 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Without ZEUS, Maribor (and alike)I would not be as profitable in this market...Both of these gentlemen have been extremly helpful with there insights, but most of all helped me identify my weekensses...Thx Fellas

US SW 13:35 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS 13:29 GMT August 1, 2008

thx Zeus, at least we know were ya stand...Im thinking you belive the E$ is headed to 154oo, please correct me it Im wrong..again thx for your insight..this is what we need in this forum...even from a guy like me that is happy with 2000 mini pips weekly...I guess a pro makes the same ,but not mini but 2000 standard pips...gl thx for the insight

USA ZEUS 13:33 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 12:58 GMT August 1, 2008
..can someone with some balls please give me some direction were the the eurusd maybe headed...thx


US SW 12:41 GMT August 1, 2008
USA ZEUS 12:29 GMT August 1, 2008
______________________________________________________

Ahh there you are. well yes I have a buy USD on dips (sell EUR/USD on rallies) GBP/USD same.

USA ZEUS 13:29 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Commodities down, rates up, so called pros claiming to buy EUR/USD from the the dumb arse retail traders...Let's see....

Amsterdam Purk 13:16 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
usd/cad is nice on its way to hit roofs.... as said before the fact. some might set s/l already on b/e....

Helsinki iw 13:15 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Mattel, the company that makes Matchbox and Hot Wheels toy cars, has a market cap that exceeds that of GM. No point in opening the Fed discount window for GM.

US SW 13:12 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Ft. Lauderdale

thx for your bias, I find it funny that guys like Madrid won't give any kind of ideas where they are in the market, to me that mean there just scared of showing some losses...to me the ones like Maribor and U are the ones that are helpers here...Tired of just seeing old sayings instead of FX suggestions..Maybe Madrid will take that as a hint...we are all here to make money, and ideas and biases are the foundation of the kind of help we all need to Make some coin...GL to all, and have a pleasant weekend...still will be selling the gbpaud when Cable is upp nice...

Lahore FM 13:11 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:48 GMT July 25, 2008
Subject:
Lahore FM 02:40 GMT July 18, 2008
Subject:
long usdcad 1.0064.
--
half out at 1.0146.
--
out of remainder 1/2 NOw at 1.0279 for 215+ in all.

US SW 13:06 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
I know feel comfortable selling the gbpaud on strenth...it should test 20740..so I will be selling on intra rally's or when Cable is upp nice...gl all

Ft. Lauderdale gb 13:06 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 13:04 GMT August 1, 2008
Ft. Lauderdale gb 12:59 GMT August 1, 2008
--------------------------------------------
agree there might be some downside left, but when it is ready up she goes and hard, imo. I am perfectly happy to sit on positions for weeks if necessary until they turn in my favor. Good luck to us all.

US SW 13:04 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Ft. Lauderdale gb 12:59 GMT August 1, 2008

thx...I guess what confused me the most was the markets reaction to the data...51K is still a loss and not a minor loss at that...just seems something is still brewing for the Market to lose another 1000 points on the DJIA, so I guess I will join your Long on the eurusd..we may have some downside stil, but I believe 15850 is definetly in the card..thx again, and good luck..I bought in @ 15533 and will add below 155oo

Ft. Lauderdale gb 12:59 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
US SW 12:58 GMT August 1, 2008
Im confused here...not afraid to say that..can someone with some balls please give me some direction were the the eurusd maybe headed...thx
----------------------------------------------------------
I am not sure about the balls, but I loaded massive long positions in the last 20 minutes of 1.5533-35, so I hope it will go back up, lol

US SW 12:58 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Im confused here...not afraid to say that..can someone with some balls please give me some direction were the the eurusd maybe headed...thx

Jerusalem ML 12:54 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Eur to test 1.55 to the downside soon , maybe later today.

GT

Ft. Lauderdale gb 12:44 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
1.5535

US SW 12:44 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
GBP/AUD flying high again...this thing won't stop! any won have a bias on this pair

Lahore FM 12:41 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
long eurusd 1.5547.

US SW 12:41 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
USA ZEUS 12:29 GMT August 1, 2008

what your bias on the E$

JAK BOND 12:41 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
1.5514

Mumbai NS 12:35 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
1.5526

London NYAM 12:34 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
1.5523

Plovdiv Gotin 12:33 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Under 1.55?

London NYAM 12:33 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
loads a' money

Plovdiv Gotin 12:33 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
E/$ Lo?TIA

USA ZEUS 12:29 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Easy money.

Global-View 12:22 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
ML (and others) - reminder to use a recognizable location when posting. You only have to type it once and click save so no excuse not to take the time to write it out. TIA

ML 12:18 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
NFP , my bet is Down 88k
5.6% (change from prior post)

euro 1.5650 possible before retracing again.

GT

US SW 12:12 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
PAR 12:05 GMT August 1, 2008

why not, Paulson and Berk, love to spend our money!

PAR 12:05 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Paulson planning to give GM direct access to the Fed discount window, other solution could be a government guarantee of GM bonds or nationalisation.

US SW 12:03 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
took profits on our long gbpaud....my short after numbers...big resistance 214oo

Haifa ac 12:02 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
PAR 11:38 GMT August 1, 2008
GM Posts $15.5 Billion Loss on Lease Costs, U.S. Sales Slump

The deficit of $27.33 a share marks GM's fourth straight quarterly loss and compares with a profit of $891 million, or $1.56, a year earlier. //

Let's see. Gm closed last night at 11.07 and trading now around 10.
10-23.33= (-)13.33 the price of gm share

Are the going to pay you $13.33 to hold that share?

GVI Forex john 12:01 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   

11:49

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

08/01//08

1.5579

107.42

1.0469

1.9778

1.0247

High

1.5586

107.89

1.0498

1.9842

1.0273

Low

1.5550

107.32

1.0464

1.9736

1.0232

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.5618

107.79

1.0441

1.9831

1.0240

10 day

1.5661

107.72

1.0401

1.9869

1.0192

20 day

1.5749

107.03

1.0310

1.9886

1.0133

50 day

1.5662

106.70

1.0331

1.9784

1.0135

100 day

1.5661

104.56

1.0276

1.9780

1.0118

200 day

1.5204

106.77

1.0665

1.9924

1.0025

Click for Global-View Chart Points

US SW 11:58 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
time to start putting in your stop limits to catch the swing!!! this number may be ugly and may be the one that takes the eurusd to 161oo... Personaly I put in a buy stop 25 pips ahead from here...

PAR 11:38 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
GM Posts $15.5 Billion Loss on Lease Costs, U.S. Sales Slump

By Greg Bensinger and Jeff Green

Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., the largest U.S. automaker, reported a second-quarter loss of $15.5 billion because of strains from truck leases, costs from labor disputes and plunging U.S. sales.

The deficit of $27.33 a share marks GM's fourth straight quarterly loss and compares with a profit of $891 million, or $1.56, a year earlier. Sales fell 18 percent to $38.2 billion, the Detroit-based automaker said in a statement today.

Auckland Trotter 11:36 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 11:06 GMT August 1, 2008
Qualification given on the help forum in regards to your insight of e-waves.

GVI Forex john 11:34 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   

GVI Forex john 11:32 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   


Employment consensus forecast of -75K is in line with the 6mo moving average. FWIW look at the slope of the three month average...
Click on icon to see chart

ABHA FXS 11:32 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Long NZDUSD 0.7279 TP 0.7633 / 0.7752

Amsterdam Purk 11:27 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
ABHA FXS 11:25 GMT August 1, 2008

You can add at 9320.

ABHA FXS 11:25 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
ABHA FXS 11:12 GMT August 1, 2008
Long AUDUSD 0.9355 TP 0.9600
CHANG TP 0.9791 / 0.9840

ABHA FXS 11:12 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Long AUDUSD 0.9355 TP 0.9600

London NYAM 11:06 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter 11:02//
Now you have lost me.
I replied to your question on help forum.

Auckland Trotter 11:02 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 10:39 GMT August 1, 2008
In present conditions of the market fundamental releases are held by some as something to ‘hang on to’.

If a true fundamental analysis was to be applied to the current market then we would see a completely different picture – could say more.

For now we have a predominance of technical over fundamental influence in the market. One could project many inferences on the market for this reason.

Personally, I would say that those who are being voted for are not in control of the money. Therefore the influences of certain government policies are directed towards policies of ‘personality politics’. Those that are moving the big money are not involved with a particular political stance.

Could say more……

ABHA FXS 11:02 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Short EURAUD 1.6638 TP 1.6221

PAR 10:55 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Aug. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Four days before Merrill Lynch & Co. stopped supporting the auction-rate securities market and left thousands of individual investors stuck with securities they couldn't sell, the firm's analysts recommended clients buy.

``Reports of the imminent demise of the auction market seem to be greatly exaggerated, again,'' analyst Kevin Conery wrote in a Feb. 8 research note. ``We continue to be impressed by the auction market's resiliency.''

The remarks show Merrill's researchers were ``co-opted'' during a seven-month drive by the New York-based firm's sales force to prevent a meltdown in the $330 billion market, Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin alleged yesterday in an administrative complaint filed in Boston. As the sales desk pushed analysts to publish upbeat notes, managers used gallows humor to complain about a ``collapsing'' market and the end of $2,000 dinners.

Auckland Trotter 10:40 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 10:19 GMT August 1, 2008
Lost me completely.

Please post on the help forum, or e-mail me.

Still working through the advised info as see it as a valuable aspect to trading.


London NYAM 10:39 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter 10:32//Econ releases become more or less important depending on when and where in relation to psychological price levels in which they occur. Like any 'event' it will only be relevant in the right context. Today, I wager, the context of relevance is there, hence the reaction will become a critical turning point. Just because its significance statistically sees to have waned does not mean that it will always be that way.

Brussels JgrB 10:37 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
TNYP: LEHMAN SHOPPING MORTGAGE SECURITIES

Click

Any opinion on this?

Auckland Trotter 10:32 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   

To put the US NFP into perspective :

The Employment Situation's has many significant figures such as: Change in Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Manufacturing Payrolls, and Average Hourly Earnings.

Yes, a few years ago the market could move a large number of pips on the release of the US NFP, and there are documented trading strategies for this.

Current state of the market is different.

Could say more, but, it is something to be aware of due to the ‘old style traders’.

London NYAM 10:19 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Trotter//I was referring to the 4hr chart (600 points) to tell the 'story' of the EURUSD since the first break of 1.60 but the daily (400) and weekly (250) needed to get a view on the signifoicance of this price region.

Auckland Trotter 10:08 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter 10:01 GMT August 1, 2008
“London NYAM 09:55 GMT August 1, 2008
Still learning the e-waves – thanks for the insight.”

What time chart are you looking at?

Auckland Trotter 10:01 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 09:55 GMT August 1, 2008
Still learning the e-waves – thanks for the insight.


Auckland Trotter 09:57 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Range to break, or play for now on the EUR/USD – 1.5573 to 1.5557.

Still looks like some down pressure for me – just not sure of a bottom figure for this session.

London NYAM 09:55 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland peat 09:45//I dont buy the leaning on things at critical junctures such as these as focus from thise who will lean against the leaners will mean that only a true winner comes out (that does not apply to false data points generated by trading plaforms seeking to take advantage of their clients s/l orders). Presently long from 1.5550 with a stop and reverse under 1.5510.
An e-wave view as i see it on the 4hr charts is ambiguous. We have a completed 5 wave pattern into the lows from two days ago suggesting that we either completed a c wave or began the first leg of a major c wave correction of 1 degree higher. This ambiguity shows how E-Wave wont predict these things under all circumstances until after the resolution of a critical point (such as the reaction to the trend-line). NFP will probably give us that resolution today and sort us out( ie break the major trading ranges seen since we broke 160 the first time) for at leas the next week or possibly the next 2 months.
Looking at other markets we could get a clue though. GBPJPY looks very dodgy again unfortunately will that weakness show up in GBP or in JPY if the latter then EUR may be looking north again.

Auckland peat 09:45 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
London NYAM 09:19 GMT August 1, 2008
...stay long above 1,5525 and short under 1.5510.

yeh seein it a bit like this but also with it being NFP day and associated volatility then you might have to use a close below over a particular time frame. some people might lean on things a bit and get their way for a while.

Auckland Trotter 09:45 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
The EUR/USD 4hr 40 day should give an interesting look for those use the Elliot wave aspects.

Msia VT 09:35 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Hi Am still new wit all the abv. May i noe where to get tos abv. like bibi.

Thanks

Como Perrie 09:15 GMT August 1, 2008

I'll take a look later after the NFP carneage develops

bibi

Syd 09:32 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
All markets should start moving on the first day of August, says Mizuho Corporate Bank's Nicole Elliott, and carry on with big, sharp moves throughout the month. For USD/JPY she looks for a probe of 107.30-00 during the morning session, with a slide to 106.60-106.00 later in the day. For a strategy she favors selling at market, adding at 108.00 with a stop above 108.65 for short-term targets of 107.30 and 106.60. USD/JPY now at 107.57.

Syd 09:26 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
CH Reportedly 6.1 magnitude earthquake in South-West region of country - Chinese press

Como Perrie 09:25 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
For happy bikers a more friendly enviroment soon to develop

soon anywhere in the next years. I do welcome this Spain move


The government also plans to remove, or dim, millions of street lights, to reduce their energy consumption by half. Public transport in many cities will operate into the early hours at the weekends to persuade motorists to leave cars at home. All Spanish government vehicles will be expected to cover one fifth of their energy needs with bio-fuels.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/spain-cuts-speed-limit-and--turns-out-lights-881401.html

taking a walk

bibi

Auckland Trotter 09:24 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:15 GMT August 1, 2008
1.5557 still looks a support level – will it become a new resistance level?

Uncertainty abounds for now – we shall see, but don’t see any definite inter levels.

Profit taken on the down – will now see what happens.

London NYAM 09:19 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
eurusd 1.5512-25 weekly t/l support held so far this week but with it so close it makes sense only to stay long above 1,5525 and short under 1.5510. Break of which would onfirm that the next few weeks will show much more prolonged corrective behaviour and no 1.600 for quite some time (depending on how quickly the downward correction is resolved).
Gold also held its equivalent trendline and a break in either could knock the other down with it.

Gen dk 09:18 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Amsterdam Purk 09:17 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
And the usd/cad moves forward. Some might say that they close a minor few to pay for intrest, and keep lots for the bigger move that is going to be soon moon break out range thingy.

Como Perrie 09:15 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
yes Trotter ... good short term trading eviroment we are having this early ahead of NFP.. I do not have any clue what It will happen next

so I'll maybe quit early today again whatever am small either ways positioned so do not care much as having a part time approach..tomorrow gardening, later on a walk and so on next week at the seas...

markets in general are heavy ililquid at current and so do not like It much

I'll take a look later after the NFP carneage develops

bibi

Auckland Trotter 09:11 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:27 GMT August 1, 2008
NFP has become an out dated fundamental which now has to be put into perspective with other data. Unfortunately, there are some who still hold to their old ways and do not adapt - psychology of traders is something that is a factor of trading.

Still have a general down pressure for the EUR/USD given the first hour of UK trading – ref my previous post.

Syd 09:04 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Jeffrey Rubin, chief economist at CIBC, says that inflation in the U.S. could hit 6.0% by the fall
- His reasoning: Increased shipping costs are making goods produced in the United States more competitive with goods shipped from China.
- “High energy prices give American manufacturing workers bargaining power that they have lacked for over a decade, while at the same time encouraging them to ask for larger pay raises to keep pace with the soaring price of gasoline.”
- “The last time we saw 6 per cent inflation in 1990, the federal funds rate was running at around 7.5 per cent - over three times today's setting. And a 10-year Treasury bond was yielding 8.5 per cent - over double what it yields today.”

Como Perrie 08:54 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
the following falls into the case of the too big too fail, but the cure will take a long term approach for sure - the more It develops the strangest It looks.. the tens of billions of losses from banks we are rescuing from the last year are nothing compared to the following

July, 30 Caroline Baum from Bloomberg wrote


Mission accomplished? With the government making explicit the implicit guarantee of the two government-sponsored enterprises, which together own or guarantee $5.2 trillion of the nation's $12 trillion of mortgage debt, the hope is that Fannie and Freddie won't have to tap the emergency backstops.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_baum&sid=aHavxqohz8RQ


PAR 08:53 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Schwarzenegger orders cuts amid fiscal crisis
By DON THOMPSON – 14 hours ago

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has signed an executive order that eliminates 22,000 government jobs and ordered that 200,000 state workers receive the federal minimum wage until a state budget is approved.

The governor says the moves are necessary to avoid a "full-blown" fiscal crisis in California.

Lawmakers have yet to agree on a spending plan a month after the state's fiscal year began, leaving California without the ability to pay contractors, the higher education system and legislative employees.

Democratic and Republican lawmakers remain far apart over how to close a $15.2 billion deficit.

Schwarzenegger's order on the minimum wage is likely to be challenged by employee unions and the state controller.
Hosted by Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

PAR 08:44 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Why not just follow Chavez s example and just nationalise FNM and FRE . Would definitely be more transparant than letting those institutions pay dividends with taxpayers backing.

Gen dk 08:36 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 08:32 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
so far next mid next week Ill go on vacation whatever the markets wants to do I do not care

Como Perrie 08:30 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
also US congress has asked to extend the evaluation of the GSE procedures into October 1st... so bet good times for short term traders more than else...but one never knows wd say

some say Citi to follow the ML case as the evaluations of their CDOs in their books are more than double the current market price

some say 17 billions to write down yet from Citi

Como Perrie 08:27 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
NFP consensus has rised into the range of the -30K after ADps Trotter...

so fat this week Ive choosen a two sided covered as think most have done particularly after yesterday options activity some

In the unlikely case Its stays in range we will loose some of the premia and not make big monnies, but at least the risk is well covered...

Auckland Trotter 08:26 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   

I have a conflict between the 1 hour and 4 hour charts for the EUR/USD, with the charts below the 1 hour giving no definite definition’.

Time will tell how best to trade this session.

Auckland Trotter 08:15 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Auckland Trotter 08:08 GMT August 1, 2008

Sorry typo:

“Watching around 1.5673 as a resistance for now.

Should be – 1.5573.

Hope it is not a Freudian slip.

Auckland Trotter 08:08 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   

It is the first Friday of the month, so we have:

USD Change in Nonfarm payrolls – consensus –75k, previous –62k
UAD Unemployment rate – consensus 5.6%, previous 5.5%
USD Change in manufacturing payrolls – consensus –40k, previous – 33k

Interesting target figure for the EUR/USD is:
1.5508 – monthly I3 pivot
1.5505 – weekly M1 pivot
1.5507 – daily I1 pivot


Watching around 1.5673 as a resistance for now. Break below 1.5557 could show more down – from the 5 min chart.

UK just opened, so we shall give it an hour to settle down. But if the lower levels are not broken, then it is scalping time.

Maribor 08:07 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Melbourne 08:00 GMT August 1, 2008

Yes...according to my system, very good R/R now. However, if there will be crowd of longs, it may go the other way first. Market changes according to positioning...

Melbourne 08:00 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Maribor, what is to become of the aus/usd,do we hold for .97?
Thanks for your comments.

Maribor 07:55 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
GBPUSD turn level ~1,974 done. Time to accumulate longs... My guess is there will be some overshooting, but 2,043 is waiting and will get there sooner or later.

Amsterdam Purk 07:49 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Traders who are longing the aud/usd for a bounce, you will get hit till 9320 if we do not see 9430 soon....

Syd 07:47 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Repeating AUD, NZD Sell Recommendation

As the outlook for the AUD and NZD continue to deteriorate, BNP Paribas repeats its sell recommendation against the EUR, USD, JPY and CAD. The bank notes that chart levels have been breached in just about all cases. "A re-test of these levels should be used a selling opportunity," the bank adds.

Syd 07:44 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
GE Q2 Total Retail Sales: Q/Q -2.4% v +1.1% prior- June Total Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales -2.8% v +1.5% prior

Syd 07:39 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Rudd concedes recession is possible
KEVIN Rudd has conceded that the Australian economy is slowing and that the worst global economic conditions in 30 years could spark job losses and a recession.

With bank lending and retail sales figures slumping to recession levels this week, the Prime Minister also urged banks to pass on in full any rate cuts delivered by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/
story/0,25197,24112083-601,00.html

Syd 07:36 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
SPain JULY MANUFACTURING PMI: 39.2 V 40.6 PRIOR- No revisions - Reading is lowest in record

madrid 07:35 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
jkt-aye

not guilty your Honor ! 8-)

isr jweb 07:34 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 13:30 GMT July 31, 2008
Subject:
i love the queen. but i think shes worthless. so im begining to build up some shorts.

wish me some luck.

--------

lucky this time. 1/2 hot an 1.9764 rest for glory tp1.93+

Syd 07:31 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Why the Reserve Bank could be wrong
http://smallbusiness.smh.com.au/managing/
finance/why-the-reserve-bank-could-be-wrong-911646933.html

Msia VT 07:29 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   


Haifa, pls help me to decode this as it sounds interesting.
Thanks

Haifa ac 05:55 GMT August 1, 2008
madrid 05:52 GMT August 1, //
Mother Snake, Father snake and 3 baby snakes cross the rroad. Mother snake turns around and says:
"Thank GOD all 6 of us crossed the road safely!"
How can that be?

Syd 07:27 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Moody's credit rating service cut the rating outlook for National Australia Bank to ''negative'' from ''stable'' one week after the largest Australian bank by market value shocked investors by announcing nearly $1 billion in potential loan losses.
November emerges as rate-cut hope
Mortgage-holders and other borrowers can expect a rate cut by November after weaker-than-expected retail sales and slowing inflation signalled the economy is moving closer to stalling.''The turn in the economic cycle has been so rapid that the RBA could go the way of the RBNZ (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) and start cutting rates sooner,'' said TD Securities' Williamson in a note to clients yesterday.
''Don't discount a September or October stabilisation cut and even the chance of an August cut should not be ruled out.''







HK Kevin 07:23 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
USD at critical moment, watch EUR 1.5550 and GBP 1.9710.

KL voodoo 07:12 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
ML
That's roughly the forecasted -45K.
So what is your take on the USD?

jkt-aye 07:09 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Madrid 6:34 ... don't make me confuse

Jerusalem ML 06:47 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
HI ALL

My BET for NFP this afternoon in NY

NFP - Down 42K , 5.6%

GT , GL

Syd 06:40 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
DJ German 1H Retail Sales Real -0.8% On Year
German Jun Retail Sales Forecast At -0.5% On Month
German Jun Retail Sales Real -3.9% On Year
German Jun Retail Sales Real Adj -1.4% On Month
Japan's margin-trade players, Asian funds selling AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY as pairs break long-term technical support level, says senior sales dealer at major Japan bank. "The pairs are now trading below the support levels not broken in July," he says, "So many players are squaring long positions to take in profits. Says NZD/JPY last 78.37, below technical level of 79; may fall to 76. AUD/JPY last 100.83, below technical level of 101; may fall to 97. Declines in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY influenced by drops of cross currencies, he says. USD/JPY last 107.67, may fall to 107.00. EUR/JPY last 167.57, may fall to 166.50.

madrid 06:34 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
IT IS NFP DAY !!!!!! PLACE YOUR BET LADIES AND GENTLEMEN ! "RIEN NE VA PLUS" 8-)

*(Bloomberg) -- The yen rose to a two-week high against the euro as faltering global growth and a slump in Asian stocks prompted traders to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets funded in the Japanese currency.
I HAVE HEARD THAT B4 SO MANY TIME .....PLUS CA CHANGE, PLUS C EST LA MEME CHOSE 8-)

*(Bloomberg) -- China's yuan fell, poised for the biggest weekly loss since a dollar peg was scrapped in 2005, as policy makers check the currency's advance to aid exporters.
MAYBE IT IS ENOUGH SO FAR. LET S SEE IF THE JAPANESE ARE DOING THE SAME 8-)

* Aust Daily Telegraph article by Terry McCann : RBA to cut interest rates, perhaps at Tuesday's meet (Aug 5, FORECAST sees no change for next 3 meets; to cut 50bps to 6.75% in Nov)
ARE YOU READY ? 8-)

* AFR:Australian real estate investment trust Mirvac Group has stopped redemptions and halted new applications for three mortgage funds holding more than A$240m ($226m) - BBG.
HOW MANY DONG IS THAT ? OR ZIMBABWEAN $ ? 8-)

* LDP Sec Gen Bunmei Ibuki will become the new Finance Minister. Fmr Foreign Min Taro Aso becomes new Secretary General. Kaoru Yosano returns as Econs Minister again.
NEW TEAM = NEW POLICY ? NEW KIT ? NEW APPRAOCH ? 8-)

* NYT : “We are seeing the beginning of the end” of the crisis, Mr. Deutsche Chief Josef Ackermann said, “but the end will last a few months.”Despite
subprime, still he argued till Investment banks could emerge from the turmoil with a vibrant future.
I LIKE OPTIMIST PEOPLE . EVEN IF THEY ARE PROVEN WRONG, AT LEAST THEY KEEP THE FAITH AND SMILING . THEY REMIND ME "DON T WORRY BE HAPPY ! " TUNE ...8-)

* Chinese Pres Hu Jintao says priority to maintain steady and fast growth. Controlling prices also a priority.
SO MANY PRIORITIES . BUSY MONTHS AHEAD IN CHINESE LAND !!! 8-)

* PBoC will set up a FX department to strengthen supervision of capital flows, may combine the dept with that of SAFE - paper.
NICE ! NOT SO NEW KID ON THE BLOCK STRENTHENING AND FLEXING THEIR MUSCLES 8-)

* Times: France's EDF said at the eleventh hour it was pulling out of a deal to take control of British Energy, GBP12b.
DID EDF PLAY THE FOREX MARKET B4 THE NEWS ? 8-)

* UK's Tullett Prebon confirmed it is in merger talks with US broker GFI Group.
ELECTRONIC TRADING TAKING OVER THE WORLD .. NO MORE Click here! AND NO MORE Click here!

-reuters-
* Choppy Session pre and post GDP+NFP? Choppy Asian session, as Japanese investors (Mrs Watanabe), trust banks, models, Europeans, US houses sold Cross/JPY - AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY - pushing USD/JPY down to 107.62 (now 107.59 on stops) from 107.85- though talks of Asian Sovereign (possibly BoK KRW related), Japan trust banks, pension funds bid at 107.50-70.

EUR/JPY stops hit blw 168 vs 168.40 NY close to 1-wk lows 167.50,weighed by huge EUR10bln Eurozone coupons hitting the market today. Bids 167 lows.
EUR hit lows 1.5557, focus on huge 1.55 options, should NFP be "not as bad", USD could rally after "bad" GDP. GBP heavy, EUR/GBP could rise on news EdF to back off from British Energy. Stops 1.9750/ 1.9700.
Nikkei -2.29% or -306.97pts at 13,070.84. JGBs futures hit 3-m highs, 10-yr yields -0.015% at 1.515%.
Crude oil heavy on demand concerns, $123.49, eye $120.
Gold offered, $912.50/913.50.
Asian FX range: USD/JPY 107.59/107.89, EUR/USD 1.5557/1.5598, GBP/USD 1.9803/1.9836, USD/CHF 1.0475/1.0497 AUD/USD 0.9360/0.9418, NZD/USD 0.7270/0.7334.

HAVE A GR8 DAY AND MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YoU 8-)

madrid 06:33 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Haifa, never...... Doesn t mean it does not exist though... 8-)

Haifa ac 06:32 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Have you ever met a snake that can count?

madrid 06:17 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
I don t know Haifa, you tell me ! 8-)

Haifa ac 05:55 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
madrid 05:52 GMT August 1, //
Mother Snake, Father snake and 3 baby snakes cross the rroad. Mother snake turns around and says:
"Thank GOD all 6 of us crossed the road safely!"
How can that be?

madrid 05:52 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Hello and GM CYBER FOREX & FUTURES JEDI !

A black cat crossing your path signifies that the animal is going somewhere.
Groucho Marx

8-)

Syd 03:14 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
S Korea Raises Terror Alert For Beijing Games - Yonhap
HK's Consumption Boom Is Over - Citi
Deepening Recession To Prolong RBNZ Easing - BNZ

Syd 03:04 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
3m homes now worth less than the buyers paid for it

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1040352/3m
-homes-worth-buyers-paid-it.html

Syd 02:51 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Sexy Bank

Syd 02:51 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
CNBC censored Capital Market says NZD heading for .66 AUD .92 shortly .. also due to Japan housewives going long earlier in the week those currencies on the cross , may see some serious unwinding in coming days. FWIW.

Syd 02:41 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
China's Purchasing Managers Index, fell under 50 for the first time since 2005, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, data from the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing showed Friday.

The PMI fell to 48.4 in July from 52.0 in June, the federation said in a statement.

The PMI data "might indicate that the trend of slowing economic growth will intensify further," Zhang Liqun, an analyst for the data, said in a statement issued by the federation. "We should be on high alert to problems reflected in this month's PMI."

The export orders component of the PMI fell to 46.7 in July from 50.2 in June, it said. The input-price component of the PMI fell to 71.3 from 75.7 over the same period, it said.

Syd 02:25 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
Nonfarm Payrolls: Is this a watershed moment for the greenback?
**Is this a watershed moment for the greenback?**
- Analysts say that EUR/USD's move lower despite today's weak U.S. GDP data suggests that EUR/USD sentiment has turned bearish. Of course, Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) will be one of the big tests for this consensus, since some traders might be waiting for the NFP to confirm the weakness seen in other U.S. data releases. Some analysts go as far as to say that July's NFP could determine both the outlook of Federal Reserve monetary policy as well as the fate of the USD for the second half of 2008. But then again, analysts tend to say these things every Thursday night before the NFP release...

USD/JPY rumors: Traders hear chatter of more recently- created option barriers at 108.50, well ahead of those seen at 109.00 for some time

Syd 01:22 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD falling in Asian morning trade, with next support around 0.9330 but unlikely to hit this mark in domestic trade ahead of U.s. non-farm payrolls data. ANZ senior currency strategist Tony Morriss says selloff comes after AMP Capital freezes NZ$419 million in investments, adds to credit fears for Australia, New Zealand. Says exporter bids may now start pulling back, as they wait for lower levels. AUD/USD now "technically a sell-on-rally" trade with moves to 0.9440-0.9500 "going to be a huge sell." Also, notes messages from economic commentariat through media suggest prospects for RBA rate cut in September very strong. "I think this is really significant - my own view is that you don't stand in the way of that sort of clarity of signal." Pair last 0.9378

Syd 01:20 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
NZD/USD slips below 0.7300 for 1st time since middle of September 2007 as sellers crowd following more bad news on economy; slips to new 10-month low of 0.7283 from 0.7332 just prior to news of AMP Capital freezing withdrawals from one of its property funds. Traders say last week's unexpected rate cut by RBNZ, continuing dire economic data will add to Kiwi woes; next target appears to be around 0.7250, which could capitulate tonight if offshore investors get more bearish, especially given growing talk of possible 50bp cut by RBNZ next month vs customary 25bp cut

Syd 01:02 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
CH July PMI Manufacturing: 48.4 v 52 prior (first reading below 50 on record)

Syd 00:54 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
DJ AUD/USD will likely test low 0.9300 area in coming days as outlook for monetary policy swings rapidly toward rate cuts, says Westpac strategist Robert Rennie. "The risks are still for a bit more weakness in Aussie." Notes RBA statement, jobs data next week are key. "Big question marks being asked about the outlook for Australian monetary policy next week, and a much more resilient U.S. dollar."

Syd 00:46 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
AU) July TD Securities Inflation MoM: 0.4% v 0.5% prior; YoY: 4.6% v 4.8% prior
New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar NZD outlook: A number of economic indicators are declining, there are stresses in the financial sector and the RBNZ has clearly turned dovish; We are most concerned about the New Zealand dollar - Matthew Strauss at RBC Capital Markets

Australia's manufacturing sector contracted for the second consecutive month in July, a performance gauge produced by an industry group published Friday shows. The Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index fell 0.1 point in July from June to 46.9.
A reading below 50.0 points separates contraction from expansion.

Syd 00:27 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
RBA may mull an immediate rate cut at next week's policy meeting, though will probably opt for a cut in September instead, says Daily Telegraph RBA watcher Terry McCrann. Says RBA doesn't like to surprise market, but September cut won't be the last; "...it will start the process of "prepping" - preparing - the market for the shift to lower rates, with the statement issued after the board meeting on Tuesday." Markets will be closely watching for any follow up commentary from other RBA watchers in days ahead. Board meets Tuesday, rate now 7.25%.

Syd 00:19 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   

Cheers for the heads up yesterday
Sydney GE 04:43 GMT July 31, 2008
there is talk coming through that AMP has frozen their property fund in NZ, big news if true

Syd 00:00 GMT August 1, 2008 Reply   
NZD/USD under renewed pressure after news AMP Capital suspending withdrawals from one of its unlisted property funds, says ANZ Bank senior dealer Murray Hindley; "it is a continuation of basically bad news from all sectors." Pair last at 0.7316 vs 0.7348 early in NZ. Adds, comments from Merrill Lynch that NZ economy in worse shape than expected also weighing on NZD. Says intraday support likely to hold at 0.7295 but next major support around 0.7250. Resistance continues to hold at 0.7360.

 




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