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Forex Forum Archive for 09/1/2008

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


ABHA FXS 23:57 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
SHORT AUDUSD 0.8485 TP 0.8120

Syd 23:48 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD bias to the downside, according to chartists: They say that the AUD/USD close below 0.85 was a bearish development from a technical perspective, adds that there isn't any technical support until weekly low around 0.8275

Russia warns Australia not to renege on uranium deal- Russia's ambassador to Australia has warned the country not to pull out of a deal to sell nuclear fuel to Moscow

Syd 23:36 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Aussie Treasurer Suggests RBA Cut A Done Deal

Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan indicates rate cut by RBA today a fait accompli; tells Sky News television "It's certainly a good sign that the RBA is deciding to loosen policy," before catching himself to add: "should they take that decision today...this will be a welcome start from the RBA". Reiterates pressure on retail banks to pass any rate cuts after RBA decision, due 0430 GMT. Also notes slowing world growth, financial market volatility, damping domestic economy, slowing employment growth; signals any rate cut would be welcome boost to activity.

Syd 23:29 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
JPY-crosses such as EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY dropping as "yen-crosses have finally entered into a phase for a large correction, which is long overdue, reflecting the true state of those nations' economies," says senior trader at major Japanese bank. Says, investors likely to further close their long positions with EUR/JPY likely falling to 156, possibly even 155; pair last at 157.77 on EBS. GBP/JPY session low at 192.67, last at 193.83, GBP/USD last at 1.7924; "the pound has broken through major support levels and there's nothing now to hold it, so it remains to be seen how far it can go," he says. AUD/JPY likely to drop further ahead of RBA interest rate decision; last at 91.81. Still, USD/JPY likely supported around 107 for now; "for the dollar/yen, there is still some demand from Japanese importers and other players, so it won't fall that easily," he says

tokyo ginko 23:23 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
expect NK to rally above 13000 today

yesterday close 12834

Syd 23:15 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
AUD Carry Trades Unwinding At Extreme Pace-RBC

Key resistance for AUD/USD now well away from market at 0.8605 with support now at 0.8400, RBC Capital Markets Senior Currency Strategist Sue Trinh says. Pair has fallen to fresh 12-month low of 0.8470. Selling driven by "complete sell off in carry trades" and better bid USD. Says RBA statement today will need to be "much less dovish" than expected to prompt any chance of recovery. Also notes massive build up of AUD/JPY shorts over past week. Says positioning in this cross "historically extreme" with current bailing out related to margin calls. Expects further AUD/JPY selloff in next few hours. "The lack of momentum at the topside is seeing these leveraged investors bailing and running for the exit door, which is rather small." AUD/USD last 0.8482, AUD/JPY last 91.59.

Northern Beaches 23:10 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
tokyo ginko Thank you Pal.

tokyo ginko 23:07 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
sorry, odas = orders

Northern Beaches 23:06 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
tokyo ginko oda= order????????????

ABHA FXS 23:06 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
SHORT AUDJPY 91.80 TP 90.80

Northern Beaches 23:04 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
tokyo ginko What is oda?

tokyo ginko 23:01 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
tokyo ginko 15:04 GMT September 1, 2008
Subject:
usd/jpy currently block by selling gbp/jpy odas. when this oda complete, expect usd/jpy to 108.50 levels

GT all

+++++++

gbp/jpy sell oda completed

Syd 22:41 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Bedford VT positive USD negative oil

Australia's Swan: Slowing Growth To Push Up Unemployment

BEDFORD VT 22:39 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd 22:37 GMT September 1

Is that good or bad for the $?

Syd 22:37 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Hurricane Gustav's winds have died down to 80 miles an hour, still making the storm a Category 1, according to the latest update from the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Gustav is expected to weaken over the next 24 to 48 hours, becoming a tropical storm later Monday or early Tuesday and a tropical depression late Tuesday or early Wednesday.


Syd 22:36 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
GBP/USD selling lifts USD across the board in Asia - Chartists suggest that GBP/USD is in for more pain: They point out that there isn't any decent support until the 50% retracement of the 1.3682/2.1162 move at 1.7420

Syd 22:34 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
AUD/USD falls to 12 month low of 0.8482 on oil-driven commodities price slump and break of key technical 0.8500 support, ANZ senior currency strategist Tony Morriss says. Notes new wave of weakness on crosses, notably AUD/JPY, suggests potential for recovery may be limited. "The thing that has worried me about the Aussie in recent days is the lack of conviction in any rebound." Expect AUD/USD to trade 0.8480-0.8520 ahead of likely RBA cut later today. Further direction dependent on sentiment of RBA statement.

isr jweb 22:34 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
somebody meddling with the queen and i dont like it..

tokyo ginko 22:30 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
long live the queen....

gbp free falls...

los angeles 22:22 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Warning Against Scam Website Instantcashchange.com
Scams Beware. Do Not Exchange Currencies With Them, Its Not A Instant Exchanging Service, I Have A Really Bad Experience With Them.
Do not use the instantcashchange.com exchanging services.

ABHA FXS 22:21 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
SHOR USDJPY 107.95 TP 107.05
SHORT EURJPY 157.41 TP 156.41

Tonbridge AL 22:03 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
VT re charts there is a size restriction 600X600 pixels

Syd 21:54 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Shanghai's World Financial Center may prove to be a white elephant
China's tallest skyscraper, the half-kilometre-high World Financial Center (WFC) in Shanghai, has opened its doors, just as the country's property bubble shows every sign of being on the verge of collapse.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/09/01/cnwfc101.xml

BEDFORD VT 21:45 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Jay, how on earth do I upload a chart on here?
Many thanks in advance.

BEDFORD VT 21:44 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
AND AGAIN?

Jaffa Zorkin 21:38 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
BEDFORD VT 21:36 GMT September 1, 2008

forex cop, cool

BEDFORD VT 21:38 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Lets try again with the chart this time!!

BEDFORD VT 21:36 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Lake Geneva "V" 21:10 GMT

thanks for your comments ''V''.

I'm not saying I'm right (although I bludtee well hope I am!), but have a look @ the attached chart and the 'confluence' that I was referring to looks like it may well be happening, namely; that the 2 stochastic indicators with different settings are or have crossed, and the zero lag MACD which I use looks like its looking to cross, thus the creation of a positive divergence, the RSI has hit a 'bottom', and finally, the candlestick pattern looks like it may well be forming an ''Abandoned Baby'' which is Highly Bullish.

All the above is my opinion and it may or may not turn out.

If it doesn't, I'll stick to my day job as a Police Officer!

Regards, VT

Lahore FM 21:33 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 14:44 GMT September 1, 2008

jweb,i am still attuned to possibly higher levels for eurusd.watching at this time.

Syd 21:32 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
EU's Juncker says he still thinks EUR/USD is "overvalued"; Adds that USD is heading in the right direction
- Junker repeating his view from April and May 2008.
- "Things are developing in the right direction," he said. "A strong dollar is good for the United States. A strong dollar is good for the global economy," he added. - "In line with what we have previously said, we still think that the euro is still overvalued," said Juncker.

US Dollar vs Korean Won KRW intervention update: Acccording to sources, South Korean authorities' fx reserves dropped $4.32B in August, now stands at $243.2B
- According to some estimates, South Korean authorities sold $7B to support the KRW
US Dollar vs Korean Won South Korea's Vice Finance Minister once again downplays talk of September crisis in South Korea
The September crisis: “The won's freefall is sending a shudder through the Korean financial market, renewing fears over the so-called September crisis, as foreign investors scramble to exit on concerns over the U.S. credit crisis and a further slide in the local currency,” wrote Kim Jae-kyoung at The Korea Times. She adds: “The September crisis is concerns expressed by market participants over a possible liquidity problem that month when 8.6 trillion won (about $7.9B) in bonds held by foreigners mature. If they liquidate the bonds en masse, the dollar supply will get scarce and batter the market.”

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 21:27 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD: meaningful retracement may start only around OCT/2008 and then 15200-15500 may seen as legitimate target, but we are talking monthly charts now. further, it may get very ugly for EURO longs if the very near supports will fail from holding 14500/14300. so, place your bets about 145xx holding or not ... good trades!

Lake Geneva "V" 21:10 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
BEDFORD VT

You are right - there is no absolute "right or wrong", it depends where you're stops are, your targets (if any) and time-frame. That is why we have a market!
We are short EUR from higher levels, you may be right about some retracement, but if we break 4570-65 convincingly, we may drop quite a bit. You will notice that is the bottom of the recent consolidation.

Best to you.

BEDFORD VT 21:00 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 20:27 GMT September 1, 2008

isre jweb, I agree with your comments in as much that we are in a downtrend, however, I'm purely a technical trader and my system is pointing towards a retracement to the upside.
I'm not looking for millions of points, just to certain pivot levels and fib retracement levels, and/or, even better when all these levels confluence.

Bilad, whats your thoughts.
Lahore, if you're around, I'd really appreciate your comments.
Regards to all.

isr jweb 20:27 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
bilad. bedford. it might go up a little and it might go down a lot. personally i believe eur is in a downtrend as are all majors. vs the usd. we dont ask why. and hurricanes wont help no more. not even world wars.

trends are trends and we accept that.

saying that i must take into account that this downtrend has been maniuplated, and it is august after all, so we must take this eur fall into some preportion. plus tkae into account the major unwind of the carry trade slowly but surely phasing out of our lives...

BEDFORD VT 20:00 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Bilad
I'm still long too.
I believe the EUR/USD is going up, but, being as its labour day the US, there's not a lot of volume. Add to that factor, there's also the hurricane issue unfolding at the moment which if it does take a devastating toll, it will bring the $ down.
At the moment, it feels like the the 'calm before the storm'.
I'm still debating whether to keep my positions open over night as my technicals are pointing to a retracement up to the 38% fib level at least.
Whats your thoughts?

BEDFORD VT 20:00 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Bilad
I'm still long too.
I believe the EUR/USD is going up, but, being as its labour day the US, there's not a lot of volume. Add to that factor, there's also the hurricane issue unfolding at the moment which if it does take a devastating toll, it will bring the $ down.
At the moment, it feels like the the 'calm before the storm'.
I'm still debating whether to keep my positions open over night as my technicals are pointing to a retracement up to the 38% fib level at least.
Whats your thoughts?

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 19:59 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   


help the good people

open your heart (wallet too), do the right thing!

Bilad KaL 19:49 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Bedford/
Yes I am...
U think I should Pt?
TIA

BEDFORD VT 19:02 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Bilad

Are you still in the EUR/USD?

GVI Forex john 18:45 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   

GVI Forex john 18:43 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

18:40

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

9/1/2008

1.4605

108.17

1.1010

1.8026

1.0669

High

1.4726

108.66

1.1048

1.8153

1.0685

Low

1.4586

107.63

1.0950

1.7996

1.0615

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.4665

109.14

1.1000

1.8243

1.0557

10 day

1.4726

109.31

1.0972

1.8429

1.0545

20 day

1.4872

109.50

1.0888

1.8735

1.0567

50 day

1.5392

107.97

1.0532

1.9411

1.0315

100 day

1.5500

106.36

1.0445

1.9550

1.0201

200 day

1.5229

106.53

1.0624

1.9725

1.0123

GVI Forex john 18:38 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   

18:33

 USD

pips

10yr

bp

2yr

bp

Stox

 

pts

USD

73.60

0.00

3.825

(0.4)

2.367

(3.2)

 

 

 

EUR

1.4604

(57)

4.123

(5.2)

4.029

(9.0)

DAX

6422

(1)

GBP

1.8013

(185)

4.461

(1.3)

4.421

(7.3)

FTSE

5603

(34)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

1.1014

2

2.873

(2.8)

2.375

(4.4)

SMI

7228

(11)

JPY

108.12

(50)

1.480

6.0

0.72

0.5

NIK

12834

(239)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAD

1.0678

52

3.534

(0.2)

2.713

(0.4)

TSE

13701

(0)

AUD

0.8503

(67)

5.738

(1.5)

5.695

(2.3)

ASX

5118

(17)

NZD

0.6958

(37)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNY

6.8250

(100)

SSEC

2325

(72)

 

DJIA

11544

(18)

Gold

815.75

(16.35)

HSI

20906

(356)

 

S&P

1283

(3)

WTI

111.26

(6.01)

 

 

 

 

NAS

2364

(0)

US PROPANE 18:32 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Oil is obvisouly headed to 60 BBL......Some of these futures are munipilated that is hurting our econmy...I hope they go long @ 80 and have it go down to 20

Bilad KaL 16:21 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
1.4650 the same
if Slow north...
Although I do not see that it wont touch 1.4810
I think if passes 1.4650...then into 1.4720...could be in a rallie
while that 1.4810 is Just a temp wave
up to 1.5050...then into 1.63

isr jweb 16:15 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
me long at 1.4589+

BEDFORD VT 16:13 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Bilad KaL 16:06 GMT September 1, 2008
Am I The Only one that Longed EURUSD?
----------------------------------------

NO Bilad KaL!!!

I did too! My target is c1.4645

whats your target my friend?

Bilad KaL 16:06 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Am I The Only one that Longed EURUSD?
TIA

US PROPANE 15:59 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
so what the better short Cable or the E/$ please, thax

US PROPANE 15:48 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
glad someone understands the statement gl

Bilad KaL 15:44 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
eurJPY Long
No Idea for the Target for now

Bilad KaL 15:41 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Long USDJPY for Longer term Target 112
Staying Long for 2 weeks

JAK BOND 15:24 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
US PROPANE 15:15 GMT September 1, 2008
there you had answered yourself the question on the eurgbp as the gbp do not bounce so the eurgbp imo will go higher then? : )

Bilad KaL 15:22 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
EURCAD Seems Bullish 1.65 in general
will long at 1.5560
Target 1.5700

US PROPANE 15:15 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
CABLE will not bounce

tokyo ginko 15:04 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
usd/jpy currently block by selling gbp/jpy odas. when this oda complete, expect usd/jpy to 108.50 levels

GT all

US PROPANE 15:04 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
wereeis eurgbp going

Bilad KaL 15:02 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
EURJPY Looks scary either way!!

Bilad KaL 14:54 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
jweb /
I do not see why not IMO...Maybe in wed this week
Unless (??)
GL

isr jweb 14:44 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
fm. will we ever see "1.47" in the near future? thanks!

Lahore FM 14:36 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM 12:39 GMT September 1, 2008
long eurusd 1.4620,stops 1.4590.
--
stopped for minus thirty.

Syd 14:31 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Baltic Dry Bulk index drops 1.7%, for 9th straight session decline

US PROPANE 14:29 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
me sold euraud...17044 tp

Bilad KaL 14:22 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
euraud
short at 1.7192
fast dip to 1.7140
hit and run
will long it at 1.7130
for 1.72+

tokyo ginko 14:22 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
oil sell off in a illiquid market

Bilad KaL 14:13 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
euraud correction to 1.62 to 1.63
I donot think will go higher then 1.7520

the south wave should take about 2-3 month

Bodrum OEE 14:12 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Bilad KaL 13:42 GMT September 1, 2008


congratulations KaL

:)

seems going well for you

good day

Bilad KaL 13:59 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
EURUSD
Seems This 1.4550 is good enough for a week North
Unless MKT gets very Volitile

will place some eurUSD Longs
at 1.4550
1.4585
and 1.4575

Bilad KaL 13:42 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
EE/
Thanks 80 pips up so far
will trail a stop
IMO This GBPJPY need another trail to trail the stop...Scary!!...LOL
EURCAD was gonna short earlier...Might visit 1.53..
but no go

Bilad KaL 13:36 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
some where USDJPY wants 111...
Most likely on its way from day's Low
EURUSD I think wants to rallie from 1.44 area
cable soon as well IMO ---> Target 2.04 area
Maybe from 1.76

London SA 13:34 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore

I think the positive divergence on the 5 and 15minute charts just gave the eurusd a bit of momentum.

If we get the same on the bigger time frames (hopefully), it will drive the pair up to the weekly pivot.

VT

ldn 13:05 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
lol....those Las Vegas lights have fried your brains.....or is it Reno?....lol..

USA ZEUS 13:03 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Looking to unload another 1/3 core GBP/USD short from 2.1112 on the grand supercycle Zeus wave reversal pattern for +3,000 pip gain.

London NYAM 12:51 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
1.800 has been giving trouble to the slide on cable all am but it looks like its about to go(needs to get above 1.8065 to stall):

London NYAM 17:10 GMT August 29, 2008
Subject:
FWIW: As mentioned over there many flimsy supports until 1.74 area.
Wave 3/c? extension targets for cable:
.500= 1.8083
.618= 1.7917
.764= 1.7710
1.00= 1.7375
Larger degree c wave targets (off a-b on two posible variants) all filled up to
2.618= 1.7440
retrace from nov 2005 low
.764 = 1.8030
retrace from 2001
50% Retrace = 1.7420

madrid 12:48 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
(Reuters) - Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda announced on Monday he was resigning.
POLTICS ARE TAKING OVER THE ECONOMIC NEWS AT THE MOMENT... AND HE MIGHT HAVE DECIDED THAT THERE IS MORE MONEY IN THE CARRY TRADE BUSINESS 8-)

&

Premier League football club Manchester City has been taken over by the Abu Dhabi United Group for Development and Investment (ABUG), Arabian Business can reveal. http://www.arabianbusiness.com
IT COULD BE THAT THERE WAS NOT A BETTER TIME TO BUY A PREMIERSHIP TEAM WITH GBP's LOW AT THE MOMENT. TIMING IS EVERYTHING...8-)

Lahore FM 12:47 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
BEDFORD VT 12:44 GMT September 1, 2008
thanx VT,yes i missed your post.grateful for appreciation!

nothing big for eurusd,1.4680 first then perhaps we can have bighter hopes.the small stop actually implies that.

BEDFORD VT 12:44 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore

I think you missed my post commending you for your absolutely brilliant call on the USDCAD last Friday.

Well done, excellent call.

Whats your target for the EUR/USD?

Regards
VT

Lahore FM 12:39 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
long eurusd 1.4620,stops 1.4590.

Lahore FM 12:38 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Lahore FM 16:09 GMT August 29, 2008
Subject:
Lahore FM 12:22 GMT August 29, 2008
long usdcad 1.0534.
--
half out at 1.0624 for 90,keeping rest for 1.07xx.
--
Out of remainder at 1.0668 now.

GVI Forex 12:32 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
From GVI:

GVI Forex Jay 12:29 GMT September 1, 2008
*JAPAN PM FUKUDA TO RESIGN-NHK

beijing sazae 12:31 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
fukuda ritired

London RF 12:31 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
JPY news??????

GVI Forex john 12:11 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   

GVI Forex john 12:09 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

11:55

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

09/01/08

1.4614

107.82

1.0993

1.8011

1.0660

High

1.4717

108.67

1.1046

1.8128

1.0685

Low

1.4607

107.63

1.0951

1.8005

1.0615

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.4666

109.07

1.0997

1.8240

1.0555

10 day

1.4726

109.28

1.0971

1.8428

1.0544

20 day

1.4873

109.48

1.0887

1.8734

1.0567

50 day

1.5392

107.97

1.0532

1.9410

1.0314

100 day

1.5500

106.36

1.0445

1.9550

1.0201

200 day

1.5229

106.53

1.0624

1.9725

1.0123

lagos applause 11:27 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
what is the view for with week outlook for usd;jpy

Mtl JP 11:01 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Monday is Labor Day holiday, in US and Canada

lets celebrate... three jobs … Uniquely American... I mean, that is fantastic that you're doing that." (Bush in 2005)

More Americans working extra years or planning to; best way to improve retirement security - AP

"... In an April survey conducted for AARP, 27 percent of workers age 45 and over, and 32 percent of those 55-64 said they had pushed back their planned retirement date because of the economic downturn. ..."

Bodrum OEE 10:55 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Bilad 09:35 GMT September 1, 2008

good luck dear KaL; it is near a critical point in my view

regards

JAK BOND 10:42 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Going long on audcad at 0.9070 stop just below 0.9040.

And to all muslim traders happy ramadhan

Los Angeles bernie 09:36 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
ABHA---very nice call:

ABHA FXS 00:54 GMT September 1, 2008
SHORT USDJPY 108.60 TP 107.71/

Bilad KaL 09:35 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
EE/
U might be right there on GBPJPY
Not holding for more then 24 hrs though
GL

Syd 09:00 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Former Japan Fin Official Sakakibara: says Japan needs strong Yen to invest overseas
- Should consider selling Euro for Yen
- Needs strong Yen to buy raw materials
- Needs higher rates to stem outflow
- Says CPI may rise to 4-5%
- Adds companies may pass on high material costs

Syd 08:58 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
German August New Car Sales Sharply Lower On Yr - Sources
German new car sales were down by a high single-digit percentage point in August compared to last year, two people familiar with the matter said Monday.


Bodrum OEE 08:39 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Bilad KaL 08:15 GMT September 1, 2008

May I humbly put forward the idea to place rigid stops on long GBP/JPY or tight monitoring.

Regards

tokyo ginko 08:29 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
add usd/jpy 107.70

stop 107.20 GT all

Syd 08:26 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Abu Dhabi To Buy Manchester City Football Club - Report

Gen dk 08:23 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bilad KaL 08:15 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
GBPJPY Long here
against the trend but will go for 197

Athens 08:03 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
in my previous post "nild" should read "mild"..

Athens 07:58 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
$/JPY has broken support 108.10 and is now approacching my first (nild) O/S level for the day 107.50-60. A medium term support line in O/S territory is coming in today around 106.80.

On a different nore, selling $/CHF on rallies as suggested here last night has worked well for modest yields.

tokyo ginko 07:47 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
HK PT 07:41 GMT Thank you

+++++++

I am aware that not every position I initiate can make money though..initiating a position is simple, thereafter, u either hold, cut or add..or better still take profit.

This is part of trading. GL to you too.

currently usd/jpy 107.85/90

HK PT 07:41 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
tokyo ginko 07:29 GMT September 1, 2008
bought usd/jpy 108.17

----

Good Luck, All the best...

Syd 07:33 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Forex Focus: Support For Sterling Likely To Evaporate Now
Any lingering support for the pound may well disappear this week.

Although the Bank of England is unlikely to actually cut interest rates when it holds its next policy meeting on Thursday, analysts are now convinced that the bank's inflationary fears should soon subside - paving the way for a cut as early as November.
Some reckon that by the time the Bank of England has finished, rates will be all the way down at 3.5% from 5% now.
"The Monetary Policy Committee appears to be edging gradually towards a loosening bias," said Vicky Redwood, U.K. economist with Capital Economics in London.
"With the peak in inflation hopefully only a couple of months away, that means that November still looks like a pretty good bet for the next cut," Redwood added, suggesting that the threat of recession next year will ensure that rates keep on falling.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling's comments over the weekend that the U.K. economy is facing "arguably the worst" downturn in 60 years only helped to fuel speculation that the bank will eventually cut interest rates.
Up until not so long ago, there was still the threat that the Bank of England could hike rates.
But, said Simon Derrick, a senior currency strategist with Bank of New York in London, "this final pillar of support for sterling has crumbled over the past few weeks."
Not only has the price of crude oil remained soft after reversing from record highs, ensuring that inflation pressures will ease, but the U.K. economy itself has only shown signs of going from bad to worse.
Last week, house prices threatened to go into freefall, with Nationwide Building Society reporting a 10.5% decline in the year to August, the largest in the survey's 17-year history.
Confirmation that consumers are being hit hard came from the Confederation of British Industry, with its retail sales survey showing another large decline that increased the risk that the U.K. economy is about to fall into recession.
David Blanchflower, a well known dove on the BOE's committee, drove the point home by suggesting that he will vote for not just a 25-basis-point rate cut, as he has in the past, but for a 50-basis-point reduction as early as this Thursday.
He argued that with the economy slowing so sharply and oil prices coming down, inflation itself will eventually plummet, providing scope for the central bank to start easing policy now.
"We are going to see much more dramatic drops in output," Blanchflower said. "The way to get out of it is to act."
Ulrich Leuchtmann, a senior currency strategist with Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, suggested that Blanchflower could well have more success in convincing other members on the committee to vote with him this time around.
"The number of rate-cut supporters might well increase," he said.
Alan Clarke, U.K. economist with BNP Paribas SA in London, is looking for Blanchflower's arguments to ensure that a rate cut comes as soon as November.
"The fact that the dove has turned into a super-dove is to a limited extent indicative of how the tone of the meeting could evolve," Clarke said.
Indications of just how negative sentiment is turning for sterling came last week as the U.K. currency failed to make any headway against the dollar, even as the U.S. currency faced strong selling pressure as crude oil prices spiked higher.
At this rate, strategists are looking for a sustained break under support at $1.8285. At BNP Paribas, strategists are looking for the pound to then "test the $1.8180 area...before a corrective rebound develops."
Against the euro, the pound could find itself facing even more pressure after breaking out of its recent trading range late last week.



tokyo ginko 07:29 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
bought usd/jpy 108.17

Burgh-Haamstede Bob 07:16 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
good morning ... that gentleman out of Athens has lots of experience, getting experience right needs multi tons of patience ... not saying in anyway that the gentleman is wrong with his forex calls, just saying that the gentleman from Athens is another caliber of forex and must treated so too ... bottom line, current market conditions require multi tons of deep pockets, many will fail the coming 30-45 days in the traps of leverage ... be careful out there traders ... thanks for the great posts Athens ... remember, making 0.5%-1% daily needs quiet seas, don't let the storm get you looking for food outside as some kinds of food are delicious even after few days, just control the drive to make always a new one :) ... happy trades!

Jerusalem ML 06:57 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Hi all

My recommendation is in place as you can see through my previous posts regarding the eur/yen
My bet is for eur/yen in Sept to move to 150

Short at 159 for 155 short term, later low 150's

GT and GL !!!

US PROPANE 06:54 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Athens 06:52 GMT September 1, 2008
thx for your response

Athens 06:52 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
US PROPANE re your EUR/GBP question to me, this pair remains positive EUR in my model but 0.8130-50 is ,arking my first O/B area for the day, therefore only a contra can be traded up here otherwise stay flat. A second and much more O/B level today would be around 0.8250 but rather unlikely to see. 0.8100, 0.8075 and 0.8030 now are support levels.

madrid 06:19 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
SO , REAL MONEY IS COMING BACK INTO PLAY THIS WEEK ? AND 4 CENTRAL BANKS WILL MEET THIS WEEK, RBA, BoC, ECB and BoE.
Are You Ready? by AC/DC....LET' S ROCK n ROLL 8-)

* UK Guardian: Chan Darling says Britain is facing "arguably the worst" economic downturn in 60 years which will be "more profound and long-lasting" than people had expected.
OUCH !!! THE KNIVES ARE OUT IT SEEMS ...8-)

* FT : NPC's Cheng Siwei says China does not need to accelerate appreciation of Renminbi against USD.
SLOWLY...BUT NOT SURELY MAYBE ?!?!?!

* WSJ: Regulators shut down Integrity Bancshares, marking the 10th U.S. bank failure this year.
ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST... ! BY QUEEN ... HOW MANY TO GO ? 8-)

* UK Telegraph: Lehman is hoping to conclude a deal this week . Its favoured partner is the Korea Development Bank.
HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY, I LEARNT THAT MANY YEARS AGO ..8-)

* French Econ Min Christine Lagarde says France will propose deeper dialogue between EU members and ECB.
WHAT DOES DEEPER DIALOGUE MEAN ?
"CUT RATES!"
" NO I WON T !"
"CUT RATES OR I WILL BLAME YOU !"
"I WON T AND I WILL BLAME YOU !
8-)

*WHEN the Reserve Bank cuts interest rates tomorrow, it will not simply be acting on a belief it has inflation licked, but out of concern for Australia's economic and financial stability. www.theaustralian.news.com.au
PLACE YOUR BETS LADIES AND GENTLEMEN ! 0.25 ? 0.50 ? MORE ? LESS ? 8-)

*A way to explain market mood swings is to see them as manifestations of massive 'de-leverage'.Two major global asset classes — the euro and oil — have suddenly got short shrift over the past few weeks. On July 14, the euro fetched a little over $1.60. This was its highest level since its inception in 1999. It kept gaining value against the American currency almost continuously over the past year on a perception that the US economy, particularly its financial system, was on its last legs. Things have changed rather dramatically since.On August 29 (as I write this), the euro is trading at $1.47. That is, over a period of 45 days, the European currency has shed about 9 per cent. Analysts are predicting much more erosion — the same bunch who were predicting more euro strength in July are now predicting levels of below $1.40 over the next few months. Currency forecasters, as you can make out, are a rather fickle lot. http://www.business-standard.com/india/storypage.php?autono=333142
DE-LEVERAGE SHOULD BE THE WORD IN VOGUE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ...8-)

* (Bloomberg) -- Australia's dollar dropped to a four-month low against the yen and New Zealand's dollar fell to the lowest in two weeks as a slide in U.S. and Asian stocks prompted investors to pare holdings of higher-yielding assets.
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE NATIONAL RUGBY TEAM LOSES BY MORE THAN 40 POINTS OVER THE WEEK END ?!?!?!? 8-)

----reuters---
* Cable the big mover today, gapping at its open to hit fresh 2-yr 4-m lows of 1.8005, low since Apr 28 2006 low 1.7998, from Fri's close of 1.8210 on Chan Darling comments, though some say he has been misinterpreted.
* Asian, options accounts buying ahead of huge 1.8000 option barriers/ stops blw. Cable selloff sent EUR/GBP to all time post EMU highs 0.8139, vs Fri close 0.8054. GBP sales, pushed GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY to 5-m lows, while EUR hit low of 1.4618 from Fri's 1.4673, and earlier highs of 1.4717.
* Talks Asian sovereign accounts, Korea, US funds sold good amount EUR, and Japanese sold EUR/JPY to 5-m low 158.43, vs Fri 159.61, weighed by Japanese investors JPY repatriation linked to Italian's EUR1.19bln coupon, EUR10.39bln redemption.
EUR/JPY also weighed by talks of huge 150 EUR/JPY 1-m strikes traded, could see downward pressure to 155/150.
EUR huge stops below 1.4570 previous low - eye any Asian, China demand, but huge stops 1.4550/1.4500.
AUD, NZD, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY all lower, with AUD weighed ahead of RBA rate cut tom. AUD hit lows of 0.8528, eye its 11-m lows of 0.8490-95.
USD/CAD hit 2-wk highs 1.0682, eye stops abv 1.07, could see AUD, GBP, NZD fall as Oil to drop should Hurricane Gustav weaken on landfill. NZD eye 0.6850.
Nikkei -1.60% or -209.21pts at 12,863.66. JGBs lower, 10-year yield up from 4-m lows, +0.065% at 1.470%.
Crude oil up on Gustav, but off highs, $116.50, +1.04.
Gold off day highs, now $829.50/830.50.
Asian FX range: USD/JPY 108.21/108.67, EUR/USD 1.4618/1.4717, GBP/USD 1.8005/1.8200, USD/CHF 1.0966/1.1046, AUD/USD 0.8527/0.8585, NZD/USD 0.6943/0.7006.

HAVE A GR8 DAY AND MAY THE FORCE BE WITH YOU . 8-)

We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children. ~Native American Proverb

US PROPANE 05:57 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
fx can not be tought or rigged to win....it unpredictabe and is more phycology than anything else...humans emotions change more that there scock...understaning the pychie is half the fx battle

US PROPANE 05:49 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Once I got smart and told a Pro that his five pairs added up to one, he had lunch with me 20k richeer the next week...

madrid 05:44 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
hello and gm CYBER TRaders

I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.
Confucius

And maybe Alaska Moon could tell us more about governor Sarah Palin...8-)

US PROPANE 05:43 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd 05:31 GMT September 1, 2008

yes seems the whole market is in kind of a frinzzy...all you can do is hedge and use leverage here...no specs to get a return withouth huge risk

Syd 05:31 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
US PROPANE very unpredictable at the moment agree

US PROPANE 05:25 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Syd 05:21 GMT September 1, 2008

I try to keep clear of aud a nzd, there nutty :0

Syd 05:21 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Risk Aversion Creeping Into FX; May Curb AUD -ANZ

Risk aversion slowly returning to FX market and AUD could be amongst hardest hit, says ANZ strategist Amy Auster. General JPY buying, flight away from AUD could pick up pace in coming days; "usually risk aversion is not very good for the Aussie." NY closed for holiday so focus in Australia is squarely on RBA decision, statement Tuesday with market expecting 25bp cut to 7.0%. AUD/JPY should get strong support at 92.00 but "if it continues down like this, it could take another leg down towards 90.00. We're still seeing quite a bit of selling pressure from Japan." Now at 92.665

US PROPANE 05:10 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
a well 50k hedge porfollio can make 4k in a day...this shold be a standard TP daily..Taxes spoili the nice price tag

US PROPANE 05:07 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
My fx report today:

The dealers are known to through nice deals early in the Game, but the cards aren't worth anything for hours...see after they give you a cheap price, then tempararly move the price higher, in fact this changes your risk appitiated and perception, because in your mind you believe the risk of losing are higher and make your stomack sink..you can fee; sick,,, don't be fooled everytime....usual after the huge increase that usually happen in miunutes the card follow a down a hill monmetum getter cheaper for what you first got dealt...with that said., patients is more than the talent of getting the better bid or ask....time pays, pips get you introuble , in a matter of speaking

US PROPANE 05:00 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
I am very impressed with the ProFx-dealers...or the 97 percenters...well..so how much can they make...I heard a 95 percenter made 100k a hundered percent profit in a Month..wish I knew his stratedgey...carry On

Brisbane Flip 04:42 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
cb Creationism?? I fell off the chair laughing. This is the 21st century. Imagine her as possible President. Give me a break. McCain has met her once. It's just stunt casting. A desperate act doomed to failure. Junior was on a "mission from god". Please no more "spokesman for the people"who thinks their fairytales are more valid some someone elses fairytales.

dc CB 04:27 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Alaska Moon 00:51 GMT September 1, 2008
I think she will make a heck of a good VP....

What about the small problem with the fact that she believes in creationism and thinks that it should be taught in schools?

ie the World is 10K years old and created by god for man's use.

dosen't that scare you just a bit....and if McCain died she would have the keys to the UberProwerfull Executive that GWB has put in place over the last 7 years. Torture, rendition, spying on citizens...all on the say-so of the Executive.

You want to give those keys to her?

Bilad KaL 03:41 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
AUDJPY and CadJPY
Major Long here

Bilad KaL 03:29 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Hello all
Looks Like a good day to short cable and NZD/usd
I am doing shorts now on both
gl

Syd 02:38 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Business leaders have called on the Bank of England to cut interest rates soon or risk plunging Britain into a major recession.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/09/01/cnmpc101.xml


Syd 02:35 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Britain is now facing a severe recession which will last for a year or longer and a worse housing crash than in the early 1990s, according to a highly respected former Bank of England policymaker.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/09/01/cnecon101.xml

Syd 02:28 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Risks Of Negative 2Q Aussie GDP Persist - UBS

UBS revises lower its outlook for 2Q Australian GDP to +0.2% on-quarter from +0.4%, and says risk for negative number persists, with possible further downgrade after government spending data due Tuesday. Says current account, export data, coupled with company profits paint mixed picture for growth outlook. "Today's data shows a weaker-than-expected stock-build which will subtract quite a bit more from the expenditure side of growth than we had expected in 2Q."

Mumbai Deepak 02:25 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
KRW thumped again, dispite intervention again, after the Trade Numbers. Last at 1102.50/80.

Syd 02:21 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Aussie Current Account Improvement Unlikely-JPM

Australian current account deficit unlikely to improve in near-term, JPMorgan chief economist Stephen Walters says. Notes trade side of balance could improve, however, net income likely to continue worsening. "That's because as interest rates rise overseas that cost of debt is going to become more expensive so that means more coupon payments flowing offshore." Likely to have negative impact for AUD going forward

Syd 02:17 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
EUR/USD dips lower: Traders cite reports that hurricane Gustav might not be as powerful as once feared, reports weigh on oil prices; Stops have been triggered in the EUR/USD below 1.4640
Traders point out that GBP/USD support seems limited now that the pair has broken below key support at 1.8090: GBP under pressure after Chancellor Darling said over the weekend that Britain is facing its worst economic crisis in 60 years

US PROPANE 02:00 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
guess me you and you are in boxing match with the euro now....game on :) Happy Trading

US PROPANE 01:59 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   


Current strat as follows:

-Looking to buy USD/CHF at Lower price uder 1.10oo as hedge to Euro...Hedge = 2 euros / 3 $/swissy hedge with a sell postion of the 1xeurchf ....at a higher price onece bought the swissy GL / GT

tokyo ginko 01:56 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
tokyo ginko 15:58 GMT August 28, 2008
Subject:
sold eur/usd 14690, join in the wagon

c/o 1.4630

look to reload short eur/usd

US PROPANE 01:53 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
08/31/08 @ 9:51 ET Bought Euro US dollar 146.36

Hyderabad Srini 01:36 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
ABHA fxs,
What is your opinion about GBP/USD?

Syd 01:30 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Australia 2Q Curr Acct DeficitA$12.77B; Seen DeficitA$11.8B

Syd 01:11 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Alistair Darling’s job on the line after recession blunder
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/
politics/article4649196.ece


Credit crunch could lead to crime wave, Home Office warns Downing Street

US PROPANE 01:10 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
any fx milloin ars here/???just courious, don't be shy

US PROPANE 01:03 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
stops triggered eurgbp .8119

ABHA FXS 00:54 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
SHORT USDJPY 108.60 TP 107.71/

US PROPANE 00:52 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
isr jweb 00:48 GMT September 1, 2008


thx Mr.

Alaska Moon 00:51 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Toronto tn 00:46 GMT September 1, 2008
=======
She is exactly what you see on TV. She is a real go-getter...
A person who talks straight, even if it is not what you want to hear. She cleaned up some coruption here and I think she will make a heck of a good VP....
Moon

isr jweb 00:48 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
US PROPANE 23:12 GMT August 31, 2008

in my view 77 area

Toronto tn 00:46 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Alaska Moon -- if you're around, give us a run-down of that Govenor of yours.

US PROPANE 00:40 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
EUROPOUND going to get pounded, hope this getts your attention...

Syd 00:38 GMT September 1, 2008 Reply   
Australian inflation is starting to show distinct trend of cooling, largely helped by sharp dip in petrol prices, according to closely watched TD Securities inflation gauge. Prices rose modest 0.1% in August from 0.4% in July, its second consecutive fall, and rose 4.2% in the twelve months to August from 4.6% in July and 4.8% in June.

AUG AIG PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDEX: 47.0 V 46.9 PRIOR- Note: A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in the sector while a reading above 50 indicates growth

 




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