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Forex Forum Archive for 01/06/2009

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Syd 23:59 GMT January 6, 2009
aud
Reply   
toronto mark 22:59 on the back of commods and crosses eg. Euro cheers

jkt-aye 23:17 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy eurgbp
Entry: .9059 Target: .9109 Stop: .9009

happy hunting :)

GVI Forex Blog 23:03 GMT January 6, 2009
Blog
Reply   
The Fed Fears The Worst

toronto mark 22:59 GMT January 6, 2009
Aud

syd any reason why aud is usually strong in us session

Syd 22:39 GMT January 6, 2009
Aud
Reply   
toronto mark hi there, see the data coming out in the next weeks the main driver for the aud , possible short term for it to go higher , but still of the opinion we have some more work on the downside to do after this rally we are having, we have to take into consideration in my view any retail sales data in the previous two months will have the massive sales included in them - but see it downhill for the this quarter but from what level is the main point

Syd 22:33 GMT January 6, 2009
China's Downturn Bites
Reply   
LINK

Cashing in on currencieslink

Hans Redeker from BNP Paribas said. "Gordon Brown is responsible for creating this mess entirely in the UK," Richard Morrish from MIG Investments added.
lilnk

toronto mark 22:32 GMT January 6, 2009
aud
Reply   
good morning syd any idea on aud after very strong session in us.andbefor retail sales. thanks

Syd 21:31 GMT January 6, 2009
Alcoa to lay off 13,500 workers, freeze salaries and cut spending by 50%
Reply   
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) late Tuesday said it plans to cut 13% of its global workforce, sell four business units, cut output, freeze salaries and hiring efforts. The Pittsburgh-based aluminum giant said it is taking the steps to conserve cash in the current economic downturn.

lkwd jj 21:20 GMT January 6, 2009
cable
Reply   
got stopped on numerous shorts today. ouch!

GVI Forex john 21:15 GMT January 6, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

6-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.3527

93.96

1.1175

1.4990

1.1797

High

1.3659

94.65

1.1279

1.4992

1.1999

Low

1.3313

92.85

1.1077

1.4505

1.1764

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3778

92.19

1.0727

1.4460

1.2035

10 day

1.3900

91.38

1.0661

1.4510

1.2110

20 day

1.3847

90.77

1.0919

1.4695

1.2170

50 day

1.3192

93.94

1.1452

1.4951

1.2240

100 day

1.3617

99.35

1.1280

1.6267

1.1630

200 day

1.4602

102.50

1.0787

1.7931

1.0900

Lahore FM 20:59 GMT January 6, 2009
GBP/USD

gbpusd 1.5250 can be final t/p for 1.4534 long.

Lahore FM 20:55 GMT January 6, 2009
GBP/USD

yes SA,certainly ripe for partial t/p.

London SA 20:48 GMT January 6, 2009
GBP/USD
Reply   
LAHORE

Whats your view on the GBP/USD?

500 pips up since it hit 1.4500 level! Are we in for some profit taking next?

Regards

SA

dc CB 20:41 GMT January 6, 2009
Oil
Reply   
seems to be the trading vehicle for 2009 for crude - DXO

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=dxo&p=d&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

Lahore FM 20:40 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 12:53 GMT December 30, 2008
Subject:Trade Ideas
some techs pointing to a quick avalanche towards 1.3100/1.3300.
--
we might have seen the lows at 1.3310 earlier today.now some consolidation and a return higher is likely.

Lahore FM 20:37 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 14:14 GMT December 19, 2008
Subject:stox rally
long march snp 889.75,stops at a later time.looking for 950/1000.
--
half out at 928.25.stops to entry on the rest.

Lahore FM 20:36 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 20:47 GMT December 17, 2008
Subject:Trade Ideas
12/12/2008 20:28:14 FM Lahore 81
long cash dow 8559 for 9200.closed small eurusd short 1.3320 at 1.3379 for minus 59.
--
half of cash dow out at 8879 for 320+.
--
rest of dow cash long out at 9007 now for + 448.

Lahore FM 20:29 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

added short gold 864.90 now to earlier at 850 from european open.

PAR 20:15 GMT January 6, 2009
US Deficits forever
Reply   
Obama says trillion-dollar deficits may last years
De CHARLES BABINGTON – Il y a 2 heures

WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Barack Obama says the nation probably faces huge deficits for years to come, but heavy spending is needed now to spur the economy.

Obama said Tuesday the deficit appears on track to hit $1 trillion soon. Speaking to reporters after meeting with top economic aides, Obama said: "Potentially we've got trillion-dollar deficits for years to come, even with the economic recovery that we are working on."

He wants Congress to approve a stimulus plan of about $775 billion.

The federal deficit was about $455 billion when the last fiscal year ended on Sept. 30, 2008.

jkt-aye 19:21 GMT January 6, 2009
Dr Qindex reply

follow the flow, you'll be glow. just imo.

Amman wfakhoury 19:04 GMT January 6, 2009
Dr Qindex reply
Reply   
Thank you very much for your effort and signals in this forum
which proofed the very good sys , I agreed with your call on
eurusd to sell , but i found it is better to start the sell at 13480 iso 13426.

Geneva 18:34 GMT January 6, 2009
AUD/USD
Reply   
Taking some profit on AUD that bought around 0.64, I think we can correct to 0.67.

NYC 18:19 GMT January 6, 2009
eurgbp

Almin it makes sense with 1.00 and parity lying just ahead. .98 then becomes last line of defense.

makassar alimin 18:09 GMT January 6, 2009
eurgbp

LDN, i wonder if there is a curse with 0.98 level, will eurgbp follow audusd path after brief touch of 0.98? we know the rest of the story...

GVI Forex Jay 18:04 GMT January 6, 2009
eurgbp

As posted on GVI Forex yesterday:
GVI Forex Jay 19:01 GMT January 5, 2009
Subject:Eur/Gbp
Mel, this is pretty close

.9004 = 38.2% of .7112-.9803

LA Mel 18:32 GMT January 5, 2009
Subject:Eur/Gbp
id say a top is in, and looking for the 38 fibo around 8995? im not a eliot wave guy, but heard this level from someone a few days ago. heard the was stg demand above 98 decent size fwiw.

LDN LDN 17:55 GMT January 6, 2009
eurgbp
Reply   
Relentless. .90 in sight?

Lahore FM 17:51 GMT January 6, 2009
audusd

Alimin dear my bet is that audusd will buckle.retails might work like that!

makassar alimin 17:30 GMT January 6, 2009
audusd
Reply   
FM friend, do you think retail sales number later will provide enough justification for audusd at this 0.72 level?

singapore rs 16:58 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell euro
Entry: 1.3451 Target: open Stop: 1.3510

add short 1.3451, stop moved to 1.3510 for all position

singapore rs 16:15 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System: Reply
Sell euro
Entry: 1.3413 Target: open Stop: 50 above

thanks Qindex, I entered short position at 1.3413, personally think 1.35 should cap any upside

Lahore FM 16:54 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

thanx for the detailed view Qindex.really appreciate,though i am positioned to the other side.lowest entry of two 1.5838 and looking for return to mid way to earlier highs if not highs a such.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:49 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Lahore FM 16:40 GMT : EUR/USD : The normal trading range is defined as 1.3445 - 1.4550. Therefore anything below 1.3445 in New York closing is negative for the market. This would suggest that the market will resume its downward trending movement and trades in the extreme levels of my system (Extreme levels are marked with green cloour in my charts).

USD/CAD : The monthly cycle normal trading range is defined as 1.1744 - 1.2769.

Lahore FM 16:40 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Doc Qindex,in my view eurusd is at a cyclical low and so is usdcad and that makes a cyclical low for eurcad too in my view.does any of your anlysis support this idea?

Hong Kong Qindex 16:38 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/CAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/CAD : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is trading in the extreme levels. This would suggest that the downward trending momentum is strong. The current expected trading range from the monthly cycle charts is 1.5518 - 1.5970 - 1.6422. Significants barriers are located at 1.5709 - 1.6037 - 1.6334. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.

London HC 16:35 GMT January 6, 2009
euro versus gbp + usd/jpy + e/u

Purk. Can you define "free zone"

Amsterdam Purk 16:32 GMT January 6, 2009
euro versus gbp + usd/jpy + e/u
Reply   
Hello all. The hole is already 300 pips deep after the 9401. I have to numbers to catch other than that one i already posted a few times.

It also might be a good idea to protect the 93 longs in usd/jpy.

e/u is a playground now for shorts. Daily free zone is until 13477ish. That means like 150 pips.

Great!

Lahore FM 16:32 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 13:39 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
long gbpusd at 1.4534,will see in a week or two.
--
took half out at 1.4742 for +208.

singapore rs 16:15 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell euro
Entry: 1.3413 Target: open Stop: 50 above

thanks Qindex, I entered short position at 1.3413, personally think 1.35 should cap any upside

Hong Kong Qindex 16:12 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

EUR/CAD : The market is negative when it is trading within the Normal Lower Limits ( [1.3024] - [1.3566] - [1.3904] - 1.5184* - 1.5539 - 1.5744 - 1.5860* - 1.6225 - 1.6632*).

Perth WTR 15:58 GMT January 6, 2009
audusd

I agree rs, audusd is still and should be a good buy for a ride to 0.80 in coming weeks

Hong Kong Qindex 15:53 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Amman wfakhoury 15:04 GMT : The best entry is 1.3445 for this rebound. We have mentioned that the current expected trading range from our monthly cycle charts is 1.3077 - 1.3445. If the market can retrace all the way back to your suggested entry point at 1.3480, the system would like to wait and see. Anyway we are using a different trading system and your time frame is very short since you are aiming at 20 - 50 pips, so it is very difficult to compare.

manila tom 15:42 GMT January 6, 2009
euraud

no rush guys, ideally i am looking at some good bounce first to establish another short position...may come as early as tomorrow, good luck

singapore td 15:35 GMT January 6, 2009
euraud
Reply   
Sell euraud
Entry: 1.8781 Target: 1.8170 Stop: 1.8890

i like the momentum for this one, looking for the said target still within january

singapore rs 15:30 GMT January 6, 2009
audusd

keep selling euro on this bounce and buy aud, i.e. euraud still has room for more down 1.81-1.82 by end of week

bouhgt audusd 0.7136, stop under 0.7, target 0.75

London NYAM 15:29 GMT January 6, 2009
EURGBP
Reply   
Buy EURGBP
Entry: .9160 Target: 1.00 Stop: .8980

If that was a zig zag 4, it could have already completed at around the 1.382 extension of proposed wave A. 1.618 lies at .9020

GVI Forex john 15:16 GMT January 6, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis



November Pending Homes Sales

GVI Forex john 15:15 GMT January 6, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   


U.S. ISM Services PMI..

Amman wfakhoury 15:04 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

better to sell around 13480

Amsterdam Purk 14:41 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Now you are talking. Patterns are clear.

chicago fjvad 14:38 GMT January 6, 2009
EUR/USD intraday: the downside prevails.
Reply   
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:



Pivot: 1.347
Our preference: Short positions below 1.347 with targets @ 1.326 & 1.32 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.347 look for further upside with 1.355 & 1.3625 as targets.
Comments: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:24 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3424 Target: 1.3210 Stop: 1.3475

EUR/USD :

Hong Kong Qindex 14:10 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy. The market is basically heading towards 1.3207. It may take a few sessions to go there. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the current expected trading range is 1.3077 - 1.3445. Market makers may try to stop the market from reaching 1.3077 so soon and they may try to defend it around 1.3207.

Bru Yein 14:01 GMT January 6, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   
Thanx Dr Q.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:58 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is 1.3201 - 1.3318 - 1.3436*.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:51 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Bru Yein 10:26 GMT - EUR/USD : I will take a look after I finish EUR/CAD.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:49 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/CAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/CAD : Heading Towards 1.5709 - 1.5722

Lahore FM 13:39 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

long gbpusd at 1.4534,will see in a week or two.

Lahore FM 13:30 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

eurcad
Entry: 1.5838 Target: later Stop:

long eurcad at 1.5838,stops 1.5700.

Jerusalem ML 13:24 GMT January 6, 2009
Seems a buy now...
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Dollar could turn here , 1.33 limit , tgt 1.35 next few days.

USD/CAD vulnerable..1.15 in sight

Munich peter 12:46 GMT January 6, 2009
Market Wisdom

BC, very interesting input, thanks. But what are your considerations for this statement? Techs, flows, fx fundamentals?

Mtl JP 12:28 GMT January 6, 2009
kids, choose your toys
Reply   
US will emerge as undisputed top dog in 2009 - Ambrose "semi-serious look at 2009" in Telegraph

Willem Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse - Buiter "warned" in Telegraph

GVI Forex john 11:46 GMT January 6, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Click for Complete Chart Points

5-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.3600

93.20

1.1087

1.4722

1.1894

High

1.3960

93.56

1.1113

1.4738

1.2224

Low

1.3546

91.80

1.0715

1.4430

1.1870

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3890

91.46

1.0609

1.4436

1.2127

10 day

1.3944

91.05

1.0636

1.4527

1.2144

20 day

1.3817

90.68

1.0966

1.4703

1.2212

50 day

1.3175

94.01

1.1461

1.4969

1.2261

100 day

1.3628

99.51

1.1278

1.6308

1.1619

200 day

1.4613

102.52

1.0781

1.7957

1.0892

GVI Forex john 11:36 GMT January 6, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis



EZ flash HICP estimate...

GVI Forex john 11:35 GMT January 6, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis



EZ Services PMI

GVI Forex john 11:34 GMT January 6, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   


UK ISM Services PMI

manila tom 11:08 GMT January 6, 2009
audusd

you could be right rs, audusd might target 0.75 next, however given the degree that euraud has fallen, there might be some potential bounce short term fwiw which would give some support to euro even if it is just for a dead cat bounce...

Belgrade Knez 10:50 GMT January 6, 2009
Market Wisdom

shanghai bc 01:10 GMT January 6, 2009

BC, thank you for your wisdom comments.

I wish you Happy New Year and all the best in 2009.

singapore rs 10:48 GMT January 6, 2009
audusd
Reply   
it is better to go long audusd to short usd, euro is hopeless, can only go down more

makassar alimin 10:36 GMT January 6, 2009
eurgbp
Reply   
eurgbp might be heading to 0.87 on this leg down, as euro looks very weak, all supports were destroyed rather easily

Haifa ac 10:32 GMT January 6, 2009
DXC closed gap
Reply   
Thegap at 83644 on the daily DXC was just closed (from 12-15-2008)

Can be rather significant.

Bru Yein 10:26 GMT January 6, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System: Reply
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

01/05/2009 15:44:57 Qindex Hong Kong 8
EUR/USD : Heading Towards 1.3436


The 22-day cycle charts suggests that the odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.3670. It is likely that the markey will tackle the lower barrier of the cycle at 1.3318 // 1.3436 later in the week. The corresponding position in the congested area is 1.3335. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 1.3813. The current expected trading range is 1.3445 - 1.3813.
------------------------------------------------------------
Dr Q do you think there will be a rebound from the price on the eurusd at this moment or will it continue to go south to 1.3318 ?
TIA for your view

KHI MK 10:18 GMT January 6, 2009
SELL

Sell GBP/USD
Entry: 1.4697 Target: 1.4600 Stop: 1.4728

Just sold GBP/USD @1.4697 with stop above today's high

stopped out with -31 pips

Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

01/05/2009 15:44:57 Qindex Hong Kong 8
EUR/USD : Heading Towards 1.3436


The 22-day cycle charts suggests that the odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.3670. It is likely that the markey will tackle the lower barrier of the cycle at 1.3318 // 1.3436 later in the week. The corresponding position in the congested area is 1.3335. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 1.3813. The current expected trading range is 1.3445 - 1.3813.

Syd 09:43 GMT January 6, 2009
Russian Gas Deliveries Halted To Balkan Countries
Reply   
SOFIA, Bulgaria (AFP)--Supplies of Russian gas to Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia and Turkey were halted overnight, the Bulgarian Ministry for the Economy and Energy said Tuesday.
"Deliveries of natural gas at the Bulgarian-Romanian frontier for Bulgargaz, destined for the Bulgarian market and for onward transit towards Greece, Turkey and Macedonia, were stopped at 3:30 am (0130 GMT) Tuesday," the ministry said in a statement. The reduction of supplies of gas, used widely for heating in Europe, comes as bitter cold grips many countries in central and western Europe.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:35 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/AUD
Entry: 1.8950 Target: 1.8745 Stop: 1.9000

EUR/AUD: Heading Towards 1.8745


The monthly cycle congested area indicates that the market is under pressure when it is below 1.9425. The next downside targeting point is 1.8647 which is corresponding to the lower barrier of the monthly cycle projected series at 1.8631 // 1.8744*. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 1.9189. The current expected trading range is 1.8744 - 1.9198.

KHI MK 09:02 GMT January 6, 2009
SELL
Reply   
Sell GBP/USD
Entry: 1.4697 Target: 1.4600 Stop: 1.4728

Just sold GBP/USD @1.4697 with stop above today's high

madrid 08:58 GMT January 6, 2009
today tomorrow
Reply   
The way it is really and seriously.

Click here!

8-)

Lahore FM 08:56 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 08:48 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
small sell gbpusd entered 1.4642,stops at 1.4692 bid.
--
ousted for minus 53 on the small short.

Syd 08:56 GMT January 6, 2009
Some £1.4billion was wiped off the values
Reply   
Halifax Bank of Scotland came under fresh attack after the City watchdog signalled the ban on short selling financial shares would lapse next week.

Shares lost nearly a tenth of their value amid fears that speculators will launch another assault on British banks.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1106068/Vultures-swoop-British-banks-short-selling-ban-lapses.html

Lahore FM 08:48 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

small sell gbpusd entered 1.4642,stops at 1.4692 bid.

Syd 08:45 GMT January 6, 2009
M&S lays off up to 1,000 staff as gloom deepens
Reply   
The chain employs 27,000 people, all of whom will have lost their jobs by this evening.With the UK economy sliding further into recession, some economists expect as many as 600,000 jobs to be lost this year.LINK

Lahore FM 08:21 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/05/2009 13:19:58 FM Lahore 17
went long eurgbp now 0.9360.
--
stopped for minus 160 at 0.9200.

Lahore FM 08:17 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/05/2009 17:19:59 FM Lahore 7
went long eurgbp now at 0.9260,2nd long in play.
--
stopped for minus - 60 at 0.9200.

Lahore FM 08:13 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

squared another short audusd 0.7093 posted late friday closed at 0.7060 for small gain.holding just 0.7150 short for lower targets.

Lahore FM 08:10 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/02/2009 16:53:59 FM Lahore 25
sold at 0.7065.
--
squared at 0.7061 for 4 pips.holding 0.7150 short for 0.6800.

madrid 08:07 GMT January 6, 2009
pair correlation
Reply   
Hello and GM Cyber traders

For those who want to try something diferent with their Excel spreadsheet.

Click here PDF File!

20. Professional traders take losses. Being wrong and not taking a loss does damage to your wallet, mind, and soul.

Have a great day and may the force be with you all.

8-)

Syd 07:18 GMT January 6, 2009
U.K. house prices posted their biggest drop on the year in
Reply   
December and are likely to come under more pressure in 2009 due to tight credit conditions and weaker demand as the economy is hit by recession, the Nationwide Building Society said Tuesday. The mortgage lender said prices were 15.9% lower on the year last month after dropping 13.9% in November, the biggest fall in annualized terms since it began collecting comparable data in 1991. On the month, the average price of a home fell 2.5% to GBP153,048 - a level not seen since spring 2005 - after easing 0.4% in November. http://www.nationwide.co.uk/default.htm

isr jweb 07:03 GMT January 6, 2009
eur/jpy

yep. thats a possibility. but looks good for now at least a small trade.

thanks fm. gt 4 u

Lahore FM 06:56 GMT January 6, 2009
eur/jpy

can get down to 122/123 before up Jweb!imho!

Lahore FM 06:51 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

sold feb crude at 48.01 looking for 44.20.order t/p in.

isr jweb 06:49 GMT January 6, 2009
eur/jpy
Reply   
am i wrong to think that eur/jpy is a buy for now?

Lahore FM 06:49 GMT January 6, 2009
Trade Ideas

sold gold at 850 and looking for 750.

Lahore FM 06:06 GMT January 6, 2009
gbpusd sell small

Lahore FM 20:52 GMT January 5, 2009
gbpusd sell small: Reply
correction
Lahore FM 20:50 GMT January 5, 2009
gbpusd sell small: Reply
Sell gbpusd
Entry: 1.4690 Target: 1.4755 bid Stop: 1.4520

small short gbpusd entered 1.4690 for 1.4520.stops and t/p placed.
--
closed now at 1.4597 for +93

Syd 05:39 GMT January 6, 2009
AUD Rally Unlikely To Go Beyond 0.73 M/T -Westpac
Reply   
AUD/USD rally not over yet but has little reason to think it will move much beyond 0.72-0.73 in medium term, Westpac Chief Currency Strategist Robert Rennie says. Says commodities improvement and current sense of optimism driven by view that worst market conditions passed in October, supporting AUD. Believes pair will revisit lows seen around 0.60 later in 1Q. Pair last at 0.7158.

AZUSA 4x-ed 04:01 GMT January 6, 2009
Market Wisdom

shanghai bc 01:10 @^@ 2009 will be a riddle for the EZ and the Euro. Everyone is free to speculate as to how the enormous refinancing schedule for the new issues market will play out in Europe, but my hunch is that ‘Big money’ will only make such bets when we have resolution on this issue. So far, the only evident trend we have is that Europeans are far from instituting a meaningful economic recovery policy. As for the recovery (if and when that happens), the sequence should play as follows: US --> then Europe --> then Emerging Markets. Probabilities are high that respective currencies will follow a similar path (notwithstanding any meaningful interventions).

Hong Kong Qindex 03:31 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

GBP/CHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/CHF
: Weekly Cycle Analysis


The market momentum is strong when it is above the weekly cycle pivot center at 1.6228. Projected resistants point are located at 1.6465 and 1.6940. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the current expected trading range is 1.5402 - 1.6815.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:10 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : It is too early to say that the market has reversed its downward trending movement although it has potential to go up to 1.5104. In the mean time time the market is vibrating around 1.4445 with an expected magnitude of 1.3942 - 1.4949.

Syd 03:07 GMT January 6, 2009
Australia Business Expectations Worsen In 1Q - D&B
Reply   
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australian businesses expect a further deterioration in economic conditions in the March quarter, driven by further declines in sales and profits, a private sector survey released Tuesday showed. A business expectations survey issued by Dun & Bradstreet showed the sales expectations index dropped 17 points to -39 index points in the March quarter from the December quarter, with only 15% of executives expecting sales increases and 54% expecting decreases.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:52 GMT January 6, 2009
QIndex Trading System

EUR/GBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/GBP : The market is testing the supporting strength of 0.9255* ... 0.9321. The next downside targeting point is 0.9030. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 0.9442 and the current expected trading range is 0.8898 - 0.9442.

Syd 02:43 GMT January 6, 2009
Handicapping currencies in 2009
Reply   
Which currency will be a safe harbor of value in 2009? It is not an easy contest to call. Dollar, yen, euro, pound: each has structural deficiencies and plenty of room to leak value. But in this contest of inadequate defenses, some harbor is bound to prove better.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/12/30/business/
views31.php

shanghai bc 01:10 GMT January 6, 2009
Market Wisdom


Buying anything below Eur/Usd 1.30 may be a good value for the whole year in 2009..The first few weeks of the year are almost always weeks of humouring traders with wild moves..Most majors and yen croses have formed wide range of floors and may break out to the upside at some point..The thing is not to be wrong-footed when a big move starts..Gold,Aud,Cad,Eur and even Pound may be ready for the big upside surprise at some point in coming weeks..Big money is in big moves..

Syd 00:40 GMT January 6, 2009
.
Reply   
Mtl JP 23:59 GMT greetings , this should be a good year when its starts to get moving :-))

 




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