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Forex Forum Archive for 01/13/2009

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Tallinn viies 22:36 GMT January 13, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
EURO SUMMARY: Opened at $1.3270 after $1.3221/1.3373 overnight range.
-- Euro had been steadily pressured in European trade but found a base
at $1.3221 area with chatter suggesting semi-official name had been a
steady euro buyer on the dip. Euro chopped lower at the ECB fixing but
rebounded ahead of US trade data, and dollar initially held steady on
narrower than expected trade deficit, though later chop allowed $1.3290.
UK clearer sales emerged as the pair turned lower, later talk suspecting
Russian backing, and pair collapsed sharply through overnight lows,
flushing stops. Losses flushed marginally through barrier strike at
$1.3200 before a 50 pip bounce on talk of Asian CB buys set up next wave
of sales, with euro skidding to $1.3167 ahead of the London fix. Euro
regained $1.3220 for the European close but chopped lower again in
afternoon trade, eventually basing at $1.3140 as the dollar found favor
across the board. Later trade saw euro rebound to $1.3290 before
settling around $1.3180.

Provided by: Market News International

SydoJoe 21:55 GMT January 13, 2009
Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

dont get too beared up by this doom and gloom mongering from ambrose...
baltic freight index @ 889 from 670 lows early dec... i feel sorry for ambrose's wife.. he must be the life of a party...

GVI Forex john 21:54 GMT January 13, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

13-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.3169

89.07

1.1197

1.4491

1.2276

High

1.3372

89.88

1.1255

1.4818

1.2332

Low

1.3142

88.80

1.1141

1.4476

1.2163

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3464

90.53

1.0973

1.4840

1.2019

10 day

1.3621

91.36

1.0850

1.4650

1.2027

20 day

1.3838

90.67

1.0753

1.4680

1.2085

50 day

1.3255

93.15

1.1411

1.4846

1.2246

100 day

1.3551

98.41

1.1284

1.6085

1.1704

200 day

1.4547

102.21

1.0810

1.7807

1.0947

Syd 21:40 GMT January 13, 2009
Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks
Reply   
Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which measures freight rates for bulk commodities such as iron ore and grains crashed several months ago, falling 96pc. The BDI – though a useful early-warning index
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/
4229198/Shipping-rates-hit-zero-as-trade-sinks.html

philadelphia caba 21:38 GMT January 13, 2009
Geithner failed to pay personal taxes
Reply   
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28642237

a bit off topic & slow mrkt anyway but .... YES, WE CAN !!!

jkt-aye 21:13 GMT January 13, 2009
GBP/USD

plan for gbpusd today :
> long 1.4430 sl 1.4400 tgt 1.4520
> short 1.4590 sl 1.4630 tgt 1.4410

lkwd jj 21:06 GMT January 13, 2009
GBP/USD

seems that uk economy is in the same toilet that usa is in even though they are on a smaller scale.

London NYAM 21:02 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

Im just looking for a more modest 133 figure and see from there but i am with you in s/t direction. GLGT

Lahore FM 20:56 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

thanx Nyam,your gbpjpy can possibly do something like euruad did to the upside.let us see!gtgl!!

Syd 20:56 GMT January 13, 2009
AUD/USD Lower - CBA
Reply   
AUD/USD back down around 1-month lows in Asian session as familiar themes of risk aversion start to re-emerge, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief currency strategist Richard Grace; expects dip below 0.66 some time today. USD regaining favored status as reserve currency after period of being oversold. S&P ratings actions on New Zealand, weakness in equities and base metals markets are weighing on AUD. "The biggest risk is that the Japanese start to exit Australian bonds just on the off chance that they think Australia could be caught up in a change to its ratings outlook, which I think would be misguided." DJ

Lahore FM 20:54 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

long eurjpy 117.59,stops 116.20.

Lahore FM 20:53 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

2nd long eurcad entered now 1.6142,stops 1.5950.target open.

London NYAM 20:52 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

Phenomenal trade FM!

Lahore FM 20:50 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

long usdjpy 89.19 stops 88.90 bid.

Lahore FM 20:49 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

long gbpjpy 129.22,stops at 127.90.

Lahore FM 20:48 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/12/2009 13:29:06 FM Lahore 19
01/09/2009 18:28:39 FM Lahore 9
01/08/2009 11:56:51 FM Lahore 39
long euruad order in place at 1.9025.will see about stops once filled.
--
filled at 1.9025 currently running with stops at 1.8800.
--
half out at 1.9520 now for +495.leeping rest with entry stops.
----
closed now 1,9890 for +865.

fresh long oreder at 1.9400 placed.

Mtl JP 20:43 GMT January 13, 2009
Citi

dc CB.. plan this, doesn't plan that... lol

dc CB 20:31 GMT January 13, 2009
Fingers
Reply   
What's your finger ratio? graphic with link to story
Born to Be a Trader? Fingers Point to Yes.

London NYAM 20:17 GMT January 13, 2009
GBP/USD

Most corrrelations fade in and out as market themes change over time. Recently, the dollar has gained strength in correlation with panicky bearish equity markets. The reason: pure liquidity flows and the need for cash (since most instruments need the doillar to grease the wheel in transactions). The past month has seen mostly sideways action retracement in equities so the dollar has been losing strength vs EUR and GBP. That relationship should hold up more for large downside than upswings but seems to be, by and large, intact. All in my HO of course.

philadelphia caba 20:09 GMT January 13, 2009
usd/jpy
Reply   
Buy usd/jpy
Entry: 89.05 Target: 89.80 Stop: 88.75

long with stop below today's low, will close before London opening.

dc CB 19:59 GMT January 13, 2009
Citi
Reply   
Citigroup to announce major reorganization (5.78 +0.18) -Update-

WSJ reports the co, under pressure to rapidly downsize, is preparing to unveil a major reorganization that will mark a further step toward dismantling the financial conglomerate, according to people familiar with the matter. In addition to spinning off the co's Smith Barney retail brokerage unit into a joint venture with Morgan Stanley, Citigroup is preparing to narrow its overall mission to two areas, these people said. The co plans to focus on wholesale banking for large corporate clients and retail banking for customers in selected markets around the world, people with knowledge of the discussions said. An agreement on the Smith Barney joint venture, which represents the first step in that process, is expected to be announced after the close of U.S. stock-market trading Tuesday... Shrinking Citigroup won't be quick or easy. The co is assigning management teams to handle the gradual disposal of units and other assets, but a person familiar with the matter emphasized that Citigroup doesn't plan to engage in a "fire sale." Efforts to find buyers also will be complicated by rocky market conditions and the recession.

Syd 19:57 GMT January 13, 2009
S&P analyst: predicts 50% chance of Spanish debt downgrade
Reply   
says risks to Italian credit rating are evenly balanced
Italy does not have the same imbalances as Potugal or Greece
Does NOT see high chance that Italy would leave Euro-Zone
note: this comes after S&P placed Spain's AAA rating on negative watch yesterday.

eu kaprikorn 19:41 GMT January 13, 2009
eur/chf
Reply   
looking this pair on daily chart it broke the Dec lows 1.4755 -- so waiting for a close below for an eventual breakdown or a whipsaw..

eu kaprikorn 19:38 GMT January 13, 2009
Maribor
Reply   
interesting - GBPAUD -- 2.20 hing today -- I know ur levels come from ur prop calculations but here it laso faces the trendline resistance from the 2.6868 high

also 2.197 is 61.8 fib of 2.30 > 2.02

anyway.. best of trades!

Maribor 19:02 GMT January 13, 2009
GBPCHF

GBPCHF 1,625 turn level (over)done and so is GBPAUD 1,1998...Probably very good time to load AUDCHF...(now 0,7382).

GBPAUD can see 1,97 or 2,48(or both) in following days and weeks....

eu kaprikorn 18:30 GMT January 13, 2009
GBP/USD

SA // hi - some years ago I was asking the same Q and thought there is a correct answer and somebody there knows it...

right now I still don't know the answer -- but as a suggestion pls take a look and try to develop your own sense of the correlation -- I hope some of the pro's will help here but markets have different cycles and sometimes they are in synch then out of it..

for GBPUSD - look at EURGBP, GBPJPY, GBPCHF to see the cross flows that also affect the cable..

Scottsdale 17:50 GMT January 13, 2009
test only
Reply   
test

Amsterdam Purk 17:02 GMT January 13, 2009
euro versus jpy
Reply   
Range of this pair is 150ish. Expecting a kaboom. Down.... tonight. 11950 will kaboom the other way...

Hong Kong Qindex 16:52 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/CHF
Entry: 1.4812 Target: 1.4640 Stop: 1.4860

EUR/CHF : The market is going to consolidate within 1.4810 - 1.4855. Later in the week it will tackle the lower trading range at 1.4624 - 1.4640. The fair value is 1.4532.

London SA 16:51 GMT January 13, 2009
GBP/USD
Reply   
Does anyone know how the Dow Jones interacts with the GBP/USD?

Eg: if the DJIA goes up, what does the GBP/USD do? Go up with it?

Also, does anyone have a view on Cable, seems to be just dithering.............

GLGT

Hong Kong Qindex 16:38 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

USD/CAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

usa bay 16:27 GMT - USD/CAD : It is possible when the market is below 1.2194.

usa bay 16:27 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, is there a possibility of usd/cad correcting to 1.2110/20 before the next leg up. tia

Hong Kong Qindex 15:42 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Buy USD/CAD
Entry: 1.2270 Target: 1.2433 Stop: 1.2170

USD/CAD : The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is above 1.2250 - 1.2253. The odds are good that the market will tackle the upper trading range at 1.2387 - 1.2490.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:16 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell AUD/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

AUD/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 0.6880. Later this week the market will test the supporting strength of 0.6446 - 0.6505. 0.6690 is a neutral position. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:55 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3240 Target: 1.3102 Stop: 1.3340

EUR/USD : The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below 1.3244. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3173.

Amsterdam Purk 14:38 GMT January 13, 2009
Market Trend

Please stop the after the fact thingies. Post trades in real time or not at all.

makassar alimin 14:37 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy euro
Entry: 1.3221 Target: 1.3470 Stop: 1.3170

followed you FM, i think euro is due for a bounce

tallinn viies 14:37 GMT January 13, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   
4cast commentary:
EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Flows - US name seen selling, Asian buying, barrier safe at 1.3190

EUR/USD's decline was helped along by a US investment bank name that was seen on the offer. But, in front of the 1.3200 level, other dealers claim that an Asian official name was on the bid. After a mini-bounce, prices broke back down and the Asian name was not there. The next target for the market is rumored barriers at 1.3190, but with a low of 1.3195 showing on Reuters, the barrier is still in tact.

HK Kevin 14:30 GMT January 13, 2009
Market Trend
Reply   
Even USD/JPY refusecan to drop, USD strength is in full gear. Very lucky I had covered the long AUD position before going to bed last night.
Still hold short Cable from 1.5030 and watch 1.4520 support Also open small short EUR/GBP at 0.9081 earlier.

Lahore FM 14:07 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

long eurusd 1,.3234,stops 1.3174.

Amsterdam Purk 13:52 GMT January 13, 2009
usd/jpy
Reply   
Well Alicia is buying i guess....

GVI Forex john 13:40 GMT January 13, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Refresh for revised data ...
U.S. Trade

Lahore FM 13:22 GMT January 13, 2009
euraud

thanx Alimin!

Maribor 12:49 GMT January 13, 2009
GBPCHF
Reply   
GBPCHF close to 1,625 turn level...GBPAUD turn level 1,1998...

Gen dk 12:38 GMT January 13, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 12:34 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/JPY
Entry: 118.25 Target: 115.83 Stop: 118.80

The odds are in favor of taking a short position when the market is trading below 118.31

Hong Kong Qindex 12:32 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

EUR/GBP : Trading Reference


... 0.8846 - 0.8892 // 0.8938* - 0.8984 - [0.9030] - 0.9075 - 0.9121* // 0.9167 - 0.9213 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 12:29 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/GBP
Entry: Target: 0.8938 Stop: 0.9135

EUR/GBP : The odds are in favor of taking a short position when the market is rejected from 0.9121.

Canberra id1 12:24 GMT January 13, 2009
Qindex Calls and Methods

Qindex: I will look forward to it.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:03 GMT January 13, 2009
Qindex Calls and Methods

Canberra id1 11:23 GMT - Hello! Long time no see. Give me a call when you go to Melbourne. We can go to Yum Cha together. i will go back on March 18.

makassar alimin 11:58 GMT January 13, 2009
euraud
Reply   
good call FM re. euraud at 2, euraud is now 1.99

Amsterdam Purk 11:52 GMT January 13, 2009
!!

My g... Alicia is back. Jay wont like that.

Go buy usd/jpy's!

Amsterdam ALICIA 11:49 GMT January 13, 2009
!!
Reply   
Amsterdam Purk 11:44 GMT January 13, 2009
Well , use it to pay your " supermarket bill"...it well overdue...

Amsterdam Purk 11:48 GMT January 13, 2009
usd/jpy

usd/jpy: stop b/e hit. Lets see if ik can get better opps.

Amsterdam Purk 11:44 GMT January 13, 2009
!!

Dunno Krup Purk, i do not park money, i use it.

GVI Forex john 11:30 GMT January 13, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

12-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.3367

89.00

1.1139

1.4828

1.2167

High

1.3477

90.25

1.1240

1.5115

1.2176

Low

1.3290

88.90

1.1098

1.4814

1.1883

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3536

91.50

1.0960

1.4846

1.1923

10 day

1.3713

91.48

1.0785

1.4641

1.2025

20 day

1.3886

90.65

1.0754

1.4717

1.2072

50 day

1.3251

93.37

1.1420

1.4868

1.2231

100 day

1.3567

98.62

1.1282

1.6124

1.1686

200 day

1.4560

102.27

1.0805

1.7834

1.0936

 

GVI Forex john 11:25 GMT January 13, 2009
Market low(eur/usd)

€/$ low on EBS 1.3222

Canberra id1 11:23 GMT January 13, 2009
Qindex Calls and Methods
Reply   
I have followed Qindex on this forum for years and years without tears. If you don't like a call, don't follow it. Hello Qindex. Yes, I still live and trade.

Gen dk 10:29 GMT January 13, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Plovdiv Gotin 10:29 GMT January 13, 2009
Market low(eur/usd)
Reply   
E/$ ebs Low pls

Syd 10:15 GMT January 13, 2009
S&P threatens to strip Spain of top AAA rating
Reply   
Standard & Poor's has threatened to strip Spain of its coveted AAA rating as country's budget deficit explodes, offering the clearest warning to date that even wealthy states are running out of room to borrow.
The move caused fury in Madrid and revived fears in the currency and bond markets about the underlying health of Europe's monetary unionlink

Hong Kong Qindex 10:09 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/JPY
Entry: 130.80 Target: 126.50 Stop: 132.30

GBP/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is below 131.91. The fair value is 124.72.

Laren Krup 10:03 GMT January 13, 2009
!!

Hillegom Purk 07:21 GMT January 13, 2009

hopefully, you are able to park money better than cars.

Syd 09:34 GMT January 13, 2009
UK Global Goods Trade Deficit Hits Record GBP8.3B
Reply   
U.K.s' global trade deficit widened to a record GBP8.3B in November from revised GBP7.6B in October on weaker non-E.U exports, particularly to the U.S., the Office for National Statistics says. Marks the largest deficit since data was first collected in 1697

Gen dk 09:29 GMT January 13, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 09:21 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Mumbai Navin 09:10 GMT - Fair Value : In the subscribed service we provide them with the whole series of Significant Numbers which are important reference points which are similar to most market makers.The fair value is one of the member in the series of the Significant Numbers.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:16 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Stuttgart Joerg 09:06 GMT - I have short term cycles (1-day, 3-day and 5-day cycle) running every trading. The projected values will compare with projected values of long term cycles (monthly, 3-month and 6-month). On Monday and Friday other cycles would carry more weight (weekly, 22-day, 33-day and 44-day).

Mumbai Navin 09:10 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Dr Q - this "fair value" is a new addition to your system? tia

Haifa ac 09:07 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

You start by working hard 30 years.

Stuttgart Joerg 09:06 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

sorry for asking but i'm still in learning process.
How do you figure out the expected trading range?

Hong Kong Qindex 08:58 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

The "Fair Value" is one of the Significant Number in my system. It is a targeting point for position trader.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:46 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/USD
Entry: 1.4680 Target: 1.4528 Stop: 1.4805

GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.4770. The current expected trading range is 1.4528 - 1.4717. The fair value is 1.4434.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:27 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3277 Target: 1.3120 Stop: 1.3383

EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below 1.3280. The current expected trading range is 1.3121 - 1.3291. The fair value is 1.3065.

Lahore FM 08:11 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 21:22 GMT January 12, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
Buy gbpjpy
Entry: 132.29 Target: open Stop: 131.00

01/08/2009 22:28:27 FM Lahore 41
long gbpjpy order working at 135.20.
--
filled earlier.

--
added long 132.29 with stops at 131.00.

Lahore FM 21:19 GMT January 12, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
Buy gbpusd
Entry: 1.4830 Target: open Stop: 1.4700

small long gbpusd 1.4830.stops 1.4700.
--
stopped on small long gbpusd for minus 130 pips.also stopped on gbpjpy long 132.29 at 131.00 for minus 129.

singapore rs 08:10 GMT January 13, 2009
euro
Reply   
euro should be a buy somewhere here, i have a position 1.3277

Haifa ac 08:08 GMT January 13, 2009
Euro

SYD==is this a strong buy signal?

Syd 07:53 GMT January 13, 2009
Euro
Reply   
EUR/USD extends losses, as selling by U.S. names triggers series of stops, says trader at major Japan bank. "I believe the euro is set to lose more ground" as speculation of an ECB rate cut on Thursday mounts, he says. Tips 1.3150-1.3270 range for Europe hours vs last 1.3235.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:32 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD :


Selling Zone : 1.5049 - 1.5308


Buying Zone : 1.4120 - 1.4435


Neutral Point : 1.4770

Amsterdam Bobsy 07:31 GMT January 13, 2009
!!

Hillegom Purk 07:21 GMT January 13, 2009
May be because it was one of the " staff from the supermarket" you did it to and not a Touareg.. no wonder they were displeased....and to make things worse you refused to pay and demanded a tip ,,,,lol...

Hillegom Purk 07:21 GMT January 13, 2009
!!

Well apparantly i parked one against a tree, they did not look that pleased. wonder why?

Amsterdam Bobsy 07:14 GMT January 13, 2009
!!
Reply   
Hillegom Purk 06:58 GMT January 13, 2009
Yes Purk....back to parking the Touaregs..lol

Hillegom Purk 06:58 GMT January 13, 2009
usd/jpy

usd/jpy entry 88,97. Sliced 1/2 at 89,39 leaving rest at b/e. Maybe another chance of getting sh.. lower.
See ya at higher levels. When you talk a lot about usd/jpy it will go the way you do not wish for. Market always gets to ya doesnt it?

Perth WTR 06:17 GMT January 13, 2009
euro
Reply   
to me this euro is heading towards 1.3070 at least, under 1.30 should a bonus overshoot and expecting a tough battle zone 1.27-1.30

Syd 06:13 GMT January 13, 2009
AUD/USD December Rally Now Over -StandChart
Reply   
AUD December recovery has now run its course, traders now focusing again on deleveraging out of risk assets, says Standard Chartered Head of FX Strategy Callum Henderson. Notes, "many people forgot" USD is typically weaker in December, try to jump on falling USD trade. But says, attention will again shift back to risk aversion. Near-term support lies at 0.6707, then 0.6640; medium-term pair may test earlier lows just above 0.6000. If 0.6000 holds, AUD/USD may begin building more solid base for recovery.

singapore td 06:09 GMT January 13, 2009
jpy
Reply   
as stocks are going down, expecting jpy to strengthen more and crude oil will definitely follow stocks make new lows

Syd 06:04 GMT January 13, 2009
AUD/USD Tenuously Holding Above Late Dec Lows-ABN
Reply   
AUD/USD holding above late-December lows of 0.6760 so far though looking shaky at current levels, ABN Director of FX Strategy Greg Gibbs says; adds "it is a tenuous situation and a break lower would end a series of higher highs and higher lows" since late November. Close below this level will be "significant set-back" and while falls may not be vertical, move to lower half of recent months' 0.60-0.70 range "a more probable course for the currency."

Bilad KaL 05:40 GMT January 13, 2009
USDJPY longs
Reply   
from these levels into 94
Oil...adding longs

Mumbai Navin 05:05 GMT January 13, 2009
Rightmove House Prices
Reply   
Can anyone help me understand what is Rightmove House Prices pls

Stuttgart Joerg 04:43 GMT January 13, 2009
AUD

thank you Hans and greetings to Munich

Munich Hans 04:41 GMT January 13, 2009
AUD
Reply   
Stuttgart Joerg 04:35 GMT January 13, 2009
Sorgen Sie sich nicht Joerg. Jeder empfängt einen Haarschnitt in diesem Geschäft. Wenn Sie ein Handel der australische Dollar auf der Verkaufsseite Sie imsind Begriff, einen sehr guten Haarschnitt zu empfangen. Genießen Sie die Erfahrung.

Stuttgart Joerg 04:35 GMT January 13, 2009
Trades

but pls beware..i'm not as experienced in FX. Trading FX for one year now, before i traded stocks and so on....

Syd 04:28 GMT January 13, 2009
global
Reply   
MADRID -- Spain's credit rating could be cut as its economy deteriorates, ratings agency Standard & Poor's said Monday, its third such warning to a European nation in the past few days.
On Friday, S&P warned Greece and Ireland that their ratings could be lowered. Tax receipts are falling in many European countries as their economies slip into recession. Efforts to rescue banks and boost their economies have put further strains on their budgets; many have had to increase the amount they plan to borrow. A lower credit rating can make debt more expensive to finance. Lower ratings indicate a greater risk attached to debt, so investors demand higher returns on it. After a 14-year growth spurt, Spain's economy began to shrink in the third quarter of 2008. Its unemployment rate has soared in recent months: At 12.8%, it is now the highest in the European Union.
Former Fed Chrmn / Obama's Econ Adviser Volcker : Current crisis is different due to greater complexity, global scope and extent of govt intervention
- This crisis is an opportunity to do things that would not be possible in normal times.
- Says he does not know how long or deep the crisis will be



Stuttgart Joerg 04:23 GMT January 13, 2009
Trades

For AUD/USD i have a stop @ .6790
USD/JPY no stop at the moment

Mtl JP 04:16 GMT January 13, 2009
Trades

any risk parameters attached to those trades Joerg ?

Stuttgart Joerg 04:13 GMT January 13, 2009
Trades
Reply   
opened trades

USD/JPY short from 89.42, target later
AUD/USD short from 0.6765, target later

Hong Kong Qindex 03:37 GMT January 13, 2009
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD: The market is retracing all the way back from the upper normal limits, 1.5049 - 1.5308, all the way back to the last member of the directional indicator at 1.4770. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.4770. The neutral buffer zone is 1.4770 - 1.5049.


Directional Indicator : [1.0019] - [1.3254] - [1.3438] - 1.3767 - 1.4120 - 1.4248* - 1.4263* - 1.4435 - 1.4770*

Upper Normal Limits : 1.5049 - 1.5308 - 1.5772 - 1.7409* - 1.7435* - 1.7513* - [1.9381] - 1.9481] - [2.1275]

singapore td 03:25 GMT January 13, 2009
USD/YEN

agree completely, I see usdjpy heading lower by Friday, will need above 91.40 on daily closing basis to put 94 back into picture, unlikely now

HK [email protected] 02:29 GMT January 13, 2009
USD/YEN
Reply   
USD/YEN

It will be a surprise to see USD/YEN rising back from here back to 94. or above.
At most I can expect 90. to 90.50. as Ret. target

It seems more reasonable to see approx. 88 ahead, because the downward forces look stronger.

GL/GT

Syd 02:13 GMT January 13, 2009
Repatriation Flows To Weigh on USD/JPY - BNP
Reply   
USD/JPY will remain under pressure as repatriation flows emerge as dominant theme, BNP FX Strategists say. Note Japanese retail investors have increased purchases of JGB products "signaling a flight to safety". Also say investors "getting more passive" in relation to foreign investments; add repatriation flows will be strongly JPY supportive. USD/JPY's break below 89.80 opens further downside toward 87.15. dj

Syd 01:25 GMT January 13, 2009
AUD/USD Falls On S&P NZ Outlook Action - DB
Reply   
AUD/USD falls in mid-Asian trade, weighed by broadly weaker risk sentiment as shown in Nikkei's 4.3% decline, and more notably S&P revision on NZ foreign currency rating outlook to negative from stable. "Even though S&P has come out and affirmed Australia's rating, it reminds us that currencies whose countries have large current account deficits are vulnerable," says Deutsche Bank senior strategist; also notes "general pressure" on AUD and "very quick unwind" of gains made throughout December, suggesting a move back to low 0.60s in weeks ahead.

Mtl JP 01:17 GMT January 13, 2009
UK Downturn

Syd 00:10 / what a bunch of brainless clueless morons "... at a "frightening" pace ... awful results... alarming", lol

so who dfk was / is at the controls, eh ? where is accountability ? actually, personally I don' t care. In fact I am amuzed at the SLOW pace and NOT AWFUL ENOUGH results AND the pablum dispensers out in force with their more moRE antidotes. All the various fiscal stimili charlatans are against Nature and its Natural ways of cleaning house. I predict and bet that the frauds and their fiat will fail miserably. If you can, you may give them this message: Keynesianism is a fraud and failure and it is NOT the solution to current tumult. My courtesy.

Market has figured Keynes out.

Syd 01:09 GMT January 13, 2009
NZD
Reply   
S&P revises outlook for NZ's forex rating to negative from stable. Notes that "outlook revision on the foreign currency rating is motivated by our view of New Zealand's narrowing economic policy flexibility in light of the country's widening external imbalances, as evidenced by the sizeable current account deficit (about 8% of GDP in 2008).dj

Syd 00:55 GMT January 13, 2009
RBNZ May Cut 100 Bps After Confidence Plunge -UBS
Reply   
UBS now expecting RBNZ to cut Official Cash Rate by another 100 bps from current 5.0% on Jan. 29 after dismal NZIER 4Q Quarterly Survey Of Business Opinion, says UBS senior economist Robin Clements. Says "gross understatement" to say survey worse than expected; "Words like terrible, dreadful and disastrous come to mind... to see many measures at their worst in near 40 years was beyond our comprehension." Says survey shows "bottom line is that policy will have to do more, and quickly." Had previously tipped RBNZ to cut by 50 bps in January, 50 bps in March. Says there is now "tangible risk" OCR will fall below 4% in March.

Syd 00:10 GMT January 13, 2009
UK Downturn "Frightening," Recession Will Be Serious-BCC
Reply   
The U.K. economy is now deteriorating at a "frightening" pace and is set to enter its heaviest recession since the early 1980s, a business survey showed Tuesday.

The latest quarterly economic survey from the British Chambers of Commerce, a U.K. business group, showed critical balances for the manufacturing and services sectors plumbing record lows in the fourth quarter, while confidence continued to collapse.

"These are truly awful results, with the scale and speed of the economic decline happening at an unprecedented rate," said David Frost, director general of the BCC.
The BCC said sharply deteriorating economic activity will see the Bank of England's key interest rate fall close to zero and will likely see policymakers employ quantitative easing - including printing money or buying up commercial debt - to stimulate growth. Ross Walker, an economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland, told journalists at a press briefing that the "alarming" BCC survey showed that there were increasingly few reasons to expect the economy to rebound in the near-term.

"I'm starting to get very worried about the U.K. economy," he said. "Looking at prospects for the near-term, it is very difficult to see what might drive a strong rebound in growth."


U.K. retail sales posted their worst Christmas performance on record in December, as broad-based weakness sent sales plunging, the British Retail Consortium said Tuesday.
According to the BRC, same-store retail sales were down 3.3% in December from a year earlier. That compares with a 2.6% drop in November, and marks the sharpest drop in Christmas trading in the survey's 14-year history.
Total sales for December - which include new retail outlets - also fell at the fastest pace on record for the month, sliding 1.4% on the year.

Dow Jones

 




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