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Forex Forum Archive for 01/14/2009

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Syd 23:59 GMT January 14, 2009
Euro
Reply   
IMF's Belka: the economic slowdown in Eastern and Central Europe expected to be deep, economies could benefit from fiscal stimulus
- Says warnings on crisis impact on Europe not treated seriously enough

LA Gn 23:39 GMT January 14, 2009
FXLQ
Reply   
As you know on September 18th 2008 R.L Spear Co Auction off the Office of FXLQ

But what you don’t know is that when they sold the Computers they did not erase the info on them very well

Your info is out your Name Acct info and any thing that was on there system check your credit report and do it now

I would contact the reciver and make them find and erase your info.

dc CB 23:29 GMT January 14, 2009
More money please
Reply   
WSJ reports that the U.S. government is close to committing billions in additional aid to BAC as the nation's largest bank by assets tries to digest its Jan. 1 acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co., according to people familiar with the situation. The discussion began in mid-December when BAC, already the recipient of $25 bln in federal rescue funds, told the U.S. Treasury Department it was unlikely to complete its purchase of the ailing Wall Street securities firm because of Merrill's larger-than-expected losses in the fourth quarter, according to a person familiar with the talks. Treasury, concerned the deal's failure could affect the stability of U.S. financial markets, agreed to work with the Charlotte, N.C. lender on the "formulation of a plan" that includes new government capital. The terms are still being finalized, this person said, and details are expected to be announced with BAC's Q4 earnings, due out Jan. 20. Any possible arrangement might protect Bank of America from losses on Merrill's bad assets. There would be a cap on the amount of losses the bank would have to absorb with the federal government being on the hook for the remainder, according to one person familiar with the matter. The possible deal is further evidence of the banking system's delicate condition and its hunger for more capital, despite billions of dollars already invested in financial institutions by the federal government. Thus far, BAC has received $25 bln in federal rescue aid, including $10 bln Merrill Lynch would have received if the sale to Bank of America had not closed. BAC is expected by some analysts to report a loss for the fourth quarter, or at least a smaller profit than expected. It is not known exactly how much Merrill lost in the same time period.

Syd 23:27 GMT January 14, 2009
DJ AUD/USD On Track To Retest 2008 Lows - Westpac
Reply   
AUD/USD remains under pressure, current global and domestic environment slanted toward eventual test of 2008 lows of just above 0.6000 in coming months, says Jonathan Cavenagh, FX strategist at Westpac. Extent of global downturn now becoming apparent, there's more to come with commodity price falls to weigh on currency. Adds that even if December employment data at 0030 GMT is stronger than expected, best strategy would be to take advantage of better entry levels for new short positions. AUD/USD now 0.6604.

Ford Credit To Cease Retail Financing In Australia - Report
Ford Credit Australia, a unit of the U.S. motor giant Ford Motor Co. (F), will stop providing finance for retail car sales from the end of February, the Age newspaper reports on its Web site Thursday.
"This was a difficult but necessary decision," a spokeswoman for Ford Motor Credit in Detroit was quoted as saying.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/ford-set-fo
r-job-losses-20090114-7h14.html?page=-1

Syd 23:09 GMT January 14, 2009
WSJ(1/15)Deutsche Bank Warns Of Loss
Reply   
German banking giant Deutsche Bank AG warned that heavy trading losses would force it to take a 4.8 billion euro ($6.3 billion) loss in the fourth quarter, reflecting how badly the world's biggest banks fared in the weeks following the demise of investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Syd 22:50 GMT January 14, 2009
DJ ..>AUD/USD Remains Pressured; Focus On Jobs Data
Reply   
AUD/USD remains under pressure following news overnight of a 2.7% fall in U.S. retail sales in December from November. Richard Grace, head of FX strategy at CBA, says news will only exacerbate risk aversion, which is likely to see some strength return to USD and extend AUD decline. AUD also weaker against most crosses, making it one of the weakest performers of last 24 hours. Focus now on local December employment report at 0030 GMT. Expectations center on a 20,000 decline in employment, with unemployment rising to 4.5% from 4.4%. Grace says negativity surrounding AUD/USD should see it slide toward 0.6400 in near-term. Now 0.6594.

Syd 22:23 GMT January 14, 2009
fx
Reply   
Australia Bank Sector Cut To Neutral From Positive By Daiwa

NZ) Dec Median House Price: -4.8% y/y, house sales -23.1%- In Dec the median house sale took 45 days vs. 36 prior

Maribor 22:15 GMT January 14, 2009
Apple

AAPL target is 53.

dc CB 22:09 GMT January 14, 2009
Apple

Apple resumes trading; stock drops over $8 to $77.00 in after hours

dc CB 21:43 GMT January 14, 2009
Apple
Reply   
from briefing.com

16:36 AAPL Apple CEO Jobs announces medical leave of absence until the end of June (85.33 -2.38) -Update-

Apple CEO Steve Jobs today sent the following email to all Apple employees: "Team, I am sure all of you saw my letter last week sharing something very personal with the Apple community. Unfortunately, the curiosity over my personal health continues to be a distraction not only for me and my family, but everyone else at Apple as well. In addition, during the past week I have learned that my health-related issues are more complex than I originally thought. In order to take myself out of the limelight and focus on my health, and to allow everyone at Apple to focus on delivering extraordinary products, I have decided to take a medical leave of absence until the end of June. I have asked Tim Cook to be responsible for Apple's day to day operations, and I know he and the rest of the executive management team will do a great job. As CEO, I plan to remain involved in major strategic decisions while I am out. Our board of directors fully supports this plan." (Stock is halted)

GVI Forex john 21:28 GMT January 14, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

14-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.3153

89.11

1.1176

1.4583

1.2455

High

1.3338

89.96

1.1240

1.4709

1.2493

Low

1.3093

88.60

1.1123

1.4492

1.2106

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3369

89.81

1.1024

1.4777

1.2116

10 day

1.3541

91.19

1.0908

1.4659

1.2055

20 day

1.3776

90.75

1.0773

1.4643

1.2109

50 day

1.3259

92.96

1.1403

1.4820

1.2263

100 day

1.3537

98.21

1.1286

1.6047

1.1723

200 day

1.4534

102.14

1.0816

1.7782

1.0958

Syd 21:28 GMT January 14, 2009
EU Presidency Warns Of "Political Consequences" From Gas Crisis
Reply   
STRASBOURG, France (AFP)--The gas crisis between Russia and Ukraine will have "political consequences" for relations with the EU if not resolved quickly, the bloc's Czech presidency warned on Wednesday.

China slump harbinger of further global fallout
A SLUMP in China's economy is now one of the biggest risks facing the world this year, according to the World Economic Forum.LINK


lkwd jj 21:23 GMT January 14, 2009
cable
Reply   
back below 20 and 50 ma on hourlies. same with yen.

lkwd jj 21:18 GMT January 14, 2009
usd
Reply   
short cable, short usdjpy from these levels. looking for new lows on both. world consumer engine failing will send shivers to other mkts.

Lahore FM 20:52 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

added long eurgbp 0.9031 to earlier 1/2 at 0.8883.

Syd 20:49 GMT January 14, 2009
DJ NZD/USD Weighed Down By Global Outlook Fears-BNZ
Reply   
NZD/USD weighed down by fears about global outlook, weak equities, says Bank of NZ currency strategist Danica Hampton. Pair last at 0.5415. "The deteriorating global backdrop encouraged investors to ditch growth sensitive currencies like NZD in favor of the relative safety of USD and JPY." Says sentiment towards NZD extremely poor; lingering affects of terrible QSBO survey, Standard & Poor's downward revision to outlook for NZ's foreign currency credit rating, expectations of aggressive rate cuts when RBNZ meets Jan. 29. Says today topside will be limited to 0.5480-0.5500 and break below 0.5390 will open downside towards 0.5300-0.5320 region.

Lahore FM 20:44 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

small long audusd 0.6582,stops 60 bid.

dc CB 20:40 GMT January 14, 2009
Chase

C also moved its earnings date up to this Friday morning, was previously scheduled for next Thurs

Lahore FM 20:35 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

small long sph 838.75.stops at 831.

Lahore FM 20:34 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/12/2009 04:09:28 FM Lahore 47
placed order to long usdcad 1.1875 in addition to earlier long at 1.1900.looking for usdcad to participate in the usd rally.
--
closed now 1.2468 for +568 in all from 1.1900.

will re nter lower if seen.

Syd 20:31 GMT January 14, 2009
Reform plan raises fears of Bank secrecy
Reply   
The Bank of England will be able to print extra money without having legally to declare it under new plans which will heighten fears that the government will secretly pump extra cash into the economyLINK

Lahore FM 20:30 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 17:31 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
Buy clg9
Entry: 36.60 Target: 45.00 Stop: 35.40

clg 9 long at 36.60,stops at 35.40.target 45.00

--
half out at 37.48.

dc CB 20:20 GMT January 14, 2009
Chase
Reply   
FYI
JP Morgan Chase will report tomorrow, which is a move up from original schedule of next week.
__________________________________________________
In an interview with the Financial Times. Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase's chief executive, predicted the US economy and financial sector would worsen in 2009 as hard-hit consumers default on credit cards and other loans and unemployment continues to rise. Mr Dimon's bleak assessment, made in an interview with the Financial Times, came as shares on both sides of the Atlantic tumbled after a larger-than-expected plunge in US retail sales and rising fears that banks would need more capital. "The worst of the economic situation is not yet behind us. It looks as if it will continue to deteriorate for most of 2009," said Mr Dimon, whose bank has navigated the turmoil better than most rivals. "In terms of our sector, we expect consumer loans and credit cards to continue to get worse."

Netherlands Bob 20:09 GMT January 14, 2009
global economy
Reply   

money is what changes hands and makes the whole thing to roll, that makes things even more simple for investor who acts without a gun pointed to his own head, by himself or by others.

that thing that changes hands is all there, in good hands and even in great amounts. it will change hands and will roll just fine. but those having the thing in great amounts, they wait for the moment to get the very best for it, so they will tell later to their next generations how they managed to do fine this crazy times, exactly as their previous generations did during crazy times our beautiful planet had before and so great amounts made the whole way into greater and greater amounts.

quito_ecuador_valdez "mos-quito" 12:18 GMT October 20, 2004
Subject:

Correct. But look at any stock mkt. If you compared the actual worth of a compnay in terms of liquidatable assets compared to the value of its stock you would see a hideous overhang in any stock market. Less than 10% of the stock value of some companies is actual liquidable assets. With exception to the original stock portfolio I had since I was a kid which itself is worth substantially (and of sentimental value), I liquidated my stocks and funds 100% into cash in 1995. My brother laughed at me and he's continued to add to his portfolio. But I can sleep. Hence my interest in FX..I would MUCH rather have cash making cash than in the highly overhung stock & fund mkts. You mentioned the "big lie". Friend, all stocks are a big lie just as all currencies are a big lie. And when the stocks crash I'll be right there to gobble them up cheap along with the Morgans, Rothchilds, Bilderbergs, Duponts et al, and wait 'til the next war for them to go up.




***
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISERS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

USA BAY 18:25 GMT January 14, 2009
nzdusd

Thanks FM, all the best for your eur/nzd trade.

Lahore FM 18:21 GMT January 14, 2009
nzdusd

Bay,it seems possible.i ahve a bet in eurnzd for that!

USA BAY 18:14 GMT January 14, 2009
nzdusd
Reply   
NZDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Anyone thinks nzd/usd has bottomed and we can see 56xx, tia

Lahore FM 18:02 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

small short eurnzd 2.4298,stops at 2.4480 bid.

Lahore FM 17:46 GMT January 14, 2009
Gold target

thanx RF,surely a biright idea,i will do that.i too was originally looking for much lower levels but changed my mind.had i seen your post that would ahve been a 2nd thought and not costly either!

many thanx,will get there!

HK [email protected] 17:44 GMT January 14, 2009
Gold target
Reply   


Lahore FM 15:08 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
long gold 822.10.stops 810.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is nice to visit sometimes the futures forumwhere I suggested that gold is aiming at 790.
Exactly at 14:08 one hour before your post

Maybe could give you second thought.
Still think this target(790) is on the Menu.

Lahore FM 17:31 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy clg9
Entry: 36.60 Target: 45.00 Stop: 35.40

clg 9 long at 36.60,stops at 35.40.target 45.00

madrid 17:31 GMT January 14, 2009
hello cyber traders
Reply   

i don t quite get it but when

-a bank like Santander loses millions with Madoff LLC and its chairman launches a video telling his staff to know his clients a few weeks before the scandal

-and Deutsche Bank said its profits last year had been ruined by choppy markets as well as the need to run down risky exposures.

etc ..

Didn t they want to say/mean " Sorry chaps, we have no idea what we are doing but hey, that's ok the gvmnt around the world, ie thetax payer , will fit the bill !" and we will get big bonuses ..

8-)

And can you trust a company like S&P when they say " oh by the way we put on watch Spanish , Greek, Portugese etc bonds "
When it is the same company that a few months ago was telling us with its friends that there was no crisis in the subprime, CDS, etc ? Who knows maybe Spanish, Portuguese, Greek debt are in worse shape than they know.

i just hope they pressed the F9 button this time to refresh their software/ program/ model....
8-)


By the way LAHORE and QINDEX, my sincere congratulations for your TRADING posts. Hat's off to you 2

8-)

Stuttgart Joerg 17:27 GMT January 14, 2009
AUD/USD

trailed out @ .6642 +22 Pips

placed new small short entry @ .6625 for few pips on movw downwards

Lahore FM 17:25 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/08/2009 21:00:43 FM Lahore 76
long eurcad 1.6183.stops later.
--
half out at 1.6386 for +203.stops to 1.6050 for this 1/2 too.

Lahore FM 17:24 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/12/2009 21:37:38 FM Lahore 26
long march s&p 500 868.75.mind stops around 835.
--
stopped at for minus 33.75 points.

Lahore FM 17:22 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/13/2009 20:53:01 FM Lahore 17
2nd long eurcad entered now 1.6142,stops 1.5950.target open.
--
half of this 2nd long out at 1.6365 now for +223.stops to 1.6050 for rest 1/2.

Lahore FM 17:04 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/13/2009 20:50:49 FM Lahore 18
long usdjpy 89.19 stops 88.90 bid.
--
stopped fo minus 29.

Lahore FM 17:02 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

audusd small long stopped fo minus 32.

Lahore FM 16:59 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

gold long stopped for 12 dolls.

--
long now 815.40.stops at a later time.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:08 GMT January 14, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell DJIA
Entry: Target: 7718 Stop:

DJIA : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 8241. The downside targeting point is 7718. The market is now consolidate between the weekly cycle pivot centers at 8140 - 8199. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 8023 - 8060.

Stuttgart Joerg 16:07 GMT January 14, 2009
AUD/USD
Reply   
placed a buy entry @ .6620 with a little position to pickup a few pips in a possible move upwards

Bilad KaL 15:34 GMT January 14, 2009
GBPCAD Small Short
Reply   
at 1.8050
1.77
fast run

Lahore FM 15:08 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

long gold 822.10.stops 810.

Lahore FM 14:52 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

eurcad 1.6200 now.1.7000 is apparently a natural destination for the pair imho!

Bilad KaL 14:44 GMT January 14, 2009
Cable Shorts
Reply   
1.4577 will with spikes
1.4620

Target <1.43

philadelphia caba 14:38 GMT January 14, 2009
medium term
Reply   
entered medium term longs on nzd/usd at .5400 and aud/usd at .6650, stops in mind below last year lows.
short term long usd/jpy still might work for 95 - 100 target.

Tokyo Tommy 14:33 GMT January 14, 2009
USD/JPY
Reply   
USD/JPY
MINE

Bilad KaL 14:30 GMT January 14, 2009
stocks
Reply   
STOCK
CTXS Buy
SRCL Buy

JPM as well

PAR 14:22 GMT January 14, 2009
Geithner
Reply   
If Timothy Geithner is such a problem for the stock markets, why not just name another less controversial candiadate not affected by tax evasion problems and with more moral authority ? I dont get it. Madoff free, controversial nominees.
Yes we can.

Lahore FM 14:06 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy audusd
Entry: 0.6637 Target: 0.7000 Stop: 0.6605

entered small long at 0.6637 with a stop at 05.

Lahore FM 13:45 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 13:31 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
long eurusd 1.3190,sops at 40 bid.target 1.4000.
--
qucikly butchered for minus 50.entered long afresh 1.3126 for forum purposes,originally 10 pips lower.stops later.target same.

Lahore FM 13:31 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

long eurusd 1.3190,sops at 40 bid.target 1.4000.

Lahore FM 13:24 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/09/2009 12:25:45 FM Lahore 46
01/08/2009 22:09:26 FM Lahore 18
very difficult question JJ.i gues we might see cable ease off some a comparatively better performing eurusd.

went long gbpnzd 2.5555.looking for 2.6500.
--
closed half of gbpnzd long 2.5555 ay 2.5845 now for +290.stops for rest 1/2 at 2.5300 so if stopped it will still be a gain.looking for 3.0000 on rest 1/2.
--
Out of rest now at 2.6690 now for +1135 pips in all.

GVI Forex john 12:13 GMT January 14, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   

Click for Complete Chart Points

13-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.3169

89.07

1.1197

1.4491

1.2276

High

1.3372

89.88

1.1255

1.4818

1.2332

Low

1.3142

88.80

1.1141

1.4476

1.2163

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3464

90.53

1.0973

1.4840

1.2019

10 day

1.3621

91.36

1.0850

1.4650

1.2027

20 day

1.3838

90.67

1.0753

1.4680

1.2085

50 day

1.3255

93.15

1.1411

1.4846

1.2246

100 day

1.3551

98.41

1.1284

1.6085

1.1704

200 day

1.4547

102.21

1.0810

1.7807

1.0947

Gen dk 11:56 GMT January 14, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 11:33 GMT January 14, 2009
EUROPE
Reply   
German Chancellor Merkel: Country facing most difficult economic situation in decades
- Protectionism would be the wrong response to the current economic crisis
- Will continue to promote free market operations

Global Speculative-Grade Default Rate Expected To Climb Above 12% By End Of 2009-moody's

OECD Euro-Zone 2009 Outlook: ECB has room to cut rates further in coming months, Sees GDP contracting by 0.6% y/y
OECD Survey: Growth should remain below trend until mid-2010, stressing that the current global economic environment poses "serious" risks to the Euro-Zone growth outlook
OECD's Gurria: Euro-Zone outlook deteriorated since end of November; sees a deep, protracted slowdown in Euro-Zone as likely scenario and adds that the region slipped into crisis before the financial market situation unfolded
Irish PM Cowen: Endorses EU view regarding unsustainability of public finances- Does not comment on earlier Irish-IMF statements made in Irish Press

Bilad KaL 10:10 GMT January 14, 2009
GBP/USD

Sounds right...Just Looking at these levels
placed these longs
I doubt cable will hit these for next month
1.5776 1.3634
1.5836 1.3546
1.5902 1.3448
1.5974 1.3342

On average cable should range inside
1.5225
1.3766

But Now the key pair is usdjpy long
i doubt wee will see 88.30
Target
95 area

Graz 09:25 GMT January 14, 2009
GBP/USD
Reply   
Buy GBP/USD
Entry: 1.3888-1.4388 Target: 1.5888-1.6388 Stop: 1.34xx


build position until 10/FEB/2009

Hong Kong Qindex 09:23 GMT January 14, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3225 Target: 1.3031 Stop: 1.3360

EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below the Significant Number at 1.3467 which is the first member of the Normal Lower Limits. The bias is on the downside when the market is fails to overcome the projected resistant barrier at 1.3315 // 1.3350. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3102. The initial downside targeting point is 1.3031. The fair value is 1.3065.


... 1.2960* - 1.2995 - 1.3031 // 1.3066 - 1.3102* - 1.3137 - [1.3173] - 1.3208 - 1.3244* - 1.3279 - 1.3315 // 1.3350 - 1.3386* ...

Gen dk 09:12 GMT January 14, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bilad KaL 09:05 GMT January 14, 2009
DJI Longs in a few days
Reply   
will long some from 8000 to 7900
just a side correction for next week's possible 8800
no biggy

Syd 08:59 GMT January 14, 2009
DJ Ruble Devaluations Continue -Nordea
Reply   
The Russian central bank has steered the ruble marginally lower for the third time this week against a basket of currencies. "The move was in line with expectations that Russia will continue step-by-step devaluations as the oil price decline has a negative effect on Russian budget and current account," says Jussi Hahtela at Nordea. Says the new top for the basket is around 36.30, and further weakening is on the cards. In early trade Wednesday, the ruble weakened to RUB36.21 against the basket. It closed Tuesday at RUB35.80 - the previous upper limit of the trading band.

tallinn viies 08:57 GMT January 14, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
EUR/USD down sharply to 1.3205 lows following the news that Ireland may
call in the IMF if the economic outlook worsens. Traders note market had been
looking at stops around 1.3350 prior to the Irish news and many traders caught
positioned the wrong way around.


paris ab 08:53 GMT January 14, 2009
audusd

Posting after the fact? timestamps..

Bilad KaL 08:42 GMT January 14, 2009
audusd
Reply   
Sell audusd
Entry: .6810 Target: .6550 Stop: .6843

cable shorts at
1.4742
Target
1.4499


eurusd shorts
1.3327

Target 1.3142

Syd 08:40 GMT January 14, 2009
DJ : Euro-Zone Is No Safe Haven - Commerzbank
Reply   
After Spain, Portugal is another EMU country that might face a soverign debt raing downgrade by Standard & Poor's, notes Commerzbank. In the current global recession, the bank says the euro zone is not able to function as a safe haven, with this role being taken by the dollar and the yen.
Cracks are appearing in the EUR's foundations as the ECB's monetary conservatism, which once lent the currency strength, starts to undermine the weaker parts of the euro zone. The tension of widening spreads in credit markets will likely spread to currencies and drive the EUR lower.

EUR Still A Sell Despite Rebound
EUR is only rebounding because of "shaky/nervous" rise in equity and commodity prices lifting risk appetite, says RBS. The bank recommends selling EUR/USD and EUR/JPY. "Weak growth, sovereign downgrade worries and slow policy response is likely to see the EUR continue to struggle," the bank says

The swing of French prices into negative territory is "spectacular," says Nicolas Bouzou, of think tank Asteres. Notes It points to the strong slowdown in world growth and global demand for the slowdown in prices.

German economic growth slowed sharply in 2008 amid the global financial turmoil, heralding a deeper economic downturn this year. German gross domestic product expanded 1.3% in price-adjusted terms, after growing 2.5% in 2007, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed Wednesday.

Syd 07:32 GMT January 14, 2009
oil
Reply   
IEA Exec: Current world oil reserves to last next 40 years; concerned on postponement of energy projects
- Says OPEC should know global economy needs lower oil prices
- Need $26T in energy sector investment by 2030

Munich peter 07:02 GMT January 14, 2009
Market Wisdom

Sorry BC, the answer to my question lies more or less within your statement itself.

Syd 04:40 GMT January 14, 2009
RBNZ To Cut OCR To 2.5% By Mid-Year - Westpac
Reply   
Westpac Bank now forecasting RBNZ will cut rates by 100 bps (previously forecast 50 bps) on Jan. 29, Official Cash Rate to drop to 2.5% (previously expected 4%) from current 5% by mid-year. Westpac Chief NZ economist Brendan O'Donovan says an even larger cut this month should not be ruled out as RBNZ front loads easing. Says yesterday's NZIER business confidence survey much worse than expected while prospects for global economy recovery in 2H look dim. "By cutting rates too little, the RBNZ risks a deeper downturn than necessary and an undershoot of their inflation target."

Aussie Jobs Thurs May Mean Pain For AUD/USD -censored
Further pain for AUD/USD could be in store Thursday if Australian jobs numbers miss expectations, says censored Markets' Tim Waterer; "there's concern locally about the jobs number." Market expects 20,000 jobs were shed in December, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.5%; "the risk is to the downside with that number - it's not expected to be particularly good." Because of that AUD/USD is struggling to push higher; says usual mix of stronger USD and weaker commodities will drive AUD in London and NY.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:47 GMT January 14, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Mtl JP 03:15 GMT - Thank you for your comments and suggestion.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:37 GMT January 14, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/AUD
Entry: Target: 1.9200 Stop: 1.9750

EUR/AUD : As shown in the distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart the market is under pressure when it is below 1.9652.

Mtl JP 03:15 GMT January 14, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Qindex , this a first for me to comment on your trade idea which, btw, I like for direction and target. fwiw my sl is around 1.6150 for this specific play.

I want to add that I absolutely love - no: respect - your adopting the trade parameter format with entry, target and sl parameters.

Takes guts.

Syd 03:09 GMT January 14, 2009
Australian Leading Employment Indicator Fell In January
Reply   
Australia's Department of Employment said Wednesday its leading indicator of employment fell to a negative 0.280 in January from a revised negative 0.084 in December.

The indicator has now fallen for 12 straight months, and has been confirming a prospective slowdown in the pace of employment growth below its long-term trend of 2.4% a year since July, the department said in a statement.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:56 GMT January 14, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/CAD
Entry: 1.6126 Target: 1.5803 Stop: 1.6226

EUR/CAD : As shown in the monthly cycle congested area the market is under pressure when it is below 1.6325. It is now trading within the normal lower limits. The targeting range is 1.5744 - 1.5860. The fair value is 1.5779.

Lahore FM 02:54 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 20:48 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
01/12/2009 13:29:06 FM Lahore 19
01/09/2009 18:28:39 FM Lahore 9
01/08/2009 11:56:51 FM Lahore 39
long euruad order in place at 1.9025.will see about stops once filled.
--
filled at 1.9025 currently running with stops at 1.8800.
--
half out at 1.9520 now for +495.leeping rest with entry stops.
----
closed now 1,9890 for +865.

fresh long oreder at 1.9400 placed.
--
order for fresh long amended to 1.9280 from 1.9400 earlier.

Syd 02:49 GMT January 14, 2009
fx
Reply   
Barclays Capital sees no rate cut from the ECB this week - Yen heading for 84. cnbcasia

Lahore FM 02:29 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/13/2009 20:54:07 FM Lahore 5
long eurjpy 117.59,stops 116.20.
--
half out at 118.58 for +99.

Lahore FM 02:28 GMT January 14, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 20:49 GMT January 13, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
long gbpjpy 129.22,stops at 127.90.
--
half closed at 130.40 for +118.

Syd 02:07 GMT January 14, 2009
Deal appeared to be off again !!
Reply   
Moscow said it had restarted the flow of natural gas to Europe via Ukraine. But before that gas could reach its freezing customers in eastern and south-eastern Europe http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7826211.stm

Syd 01:36 GMT January 14, 2009
AUD
Reply   
Brian Redican, senior economist at Macquarie Bank, said there is no way that the RBA will see a case to put further rate cuts on hold. More up to date reports on the economy in the last week have pointed to a sharp slowdown in activity.
Macquarie expect the RBA to slash its cash rate target by 75 basis points in February to 3.50%, and continue cutting in later months sending the target down to 2.50%. Macquarie's Redican described rising unemployment as the "major headwind for the housing market in coming months".
Economists on average expect December labor force data, due Thursday, will show that 20,000 Australians lost their jobs last month, which would be the second monthly fall in a row. They also expect the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to rise to 4.5% from 4.4% in November. dj

Syd 00:42 GMT January 14, 2009
EUR's Gain Vs JPY, USD Not Sustainable - Dealer
Reply   
EUR edges higher vs JPY, USD as Asian speculators adjust positions after EUR's continued tumble overnight, but downward pressure on EUR likely to remain strong as players cautious ahead of anticipated ECB rate cut tomorrow, amid worries over Russian gas supplies, says senior trader at Japan brokerage. "The euro is relatively weak now, so the euro's rises aren't likely to last long." Tips EUR/USD in 1.3150-1.3280 band vs last 1.3213 (vs 1.3191 in late NY yesterday). EUR/JPY in 117.80-118.40 band vs last 118.05 (vs 117.61); downside break would open way for 117.15.
Dow JOnes

Syd 00:34 GMT January 14, 2009
Australian Nov Housing
Reply   
Australian Nov Housing Investor Finance -6.1% Vs Oct
Australian Nov Housing Finance +1.3% Vs +1.5% Consensus

 




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