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Forex Forum Archive for 01/15/2009

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:55 GMT January 15, 2009
EUR/JPY Faces Downside Risk Ahead Of Japan FY End DJ
Reply   
EUR/JPY possibly faces downside risk from convergence of 2 factors in March: Japan corporates selling EUR for JPY for bookkeeping ahead of Japan FY end March 31, and March ECB meeting at which next ECB rate cuts now look likely following Trichet calling it next "important meeting," says Yuji Saito, senior FX dealer at Societe Generale. Japan exporters, insurers, funds often repatriate capital to Japan near year end for bookkeeping, settlement purposes. After ECB overnight cut key rate by 50 bps to 2.00% as expected, eurozone interest rates still much higher than Japan's 0.10%, but speculation of further ECB cuts narrowing differential would be "a cue for euro selling" says Saito; adds any EUR/JPY falls from 2 factors likely made gradual from "market pricing in ECB rate cut" in lead-up to March meeting.(

YVR MAXXIM 23:53 GMT January 15, 2009
FX?

Funds Available - HUD

Syd 23:18 GMT January 15, 2009
$
Reply   
Mtl JP 23:15 sounds good to me <:-))

Mtl JP 23:15 GMT January 15, 2009
$

I am dis-appointed Syd: means more innocent Joe(sephine)Sixpacks will se more suffereing and that for a longer period than otherwise.

On the other hand, it means you and I will have more for profit opportunities in the meantime.

Syd 22:54 GMT January 15, 2009
$
Reply   
Mtl JP 22:51 sorry cant as I dont have her direct line :-))

Mtl JP 22:51 GMT January 15, 2009
$

Syd 22:41 , plz pass this message to Yellen: she and her clueless companions would do better to go on a holiday and let the market do what will do anyway. IF she and her band would step aside.... things would happen quicker and market would then be able to recover sooner than it otherwise will because of their meddling.

Syd 22:41 GMT January 15, 2009
$
Reply   
Fed's Yellen: Policymakers must act boldly, market conditions remain abnormal, US economy is still contracting sharply
- Believes it is time to "pull out all the stops" to aid the economy, notes both monetary and fiscal stimulus are needed.
- Many financial markets have broken down, a worldwide recession is happening now.
- Inflation is heading below the desired level, but deflationary pressures can be contained.
Fed Board nominee Tarullo: deflation is a bigger threat than inflation at this time- commenting at his confirmation hearing today; Tarullo is slated to replace Kroszner on the Fed board

Mtl JP 22:40 GMT January 15, 2009
Govt To Tackle Unemployment By Creating 400,000 Jobs - Nikkei

where have the political putzes brought their country, eh: gov't sponsored jobs wiping off dribble and changing crap-filled huggies. ieeha !

Japan should just about soon be thinking about starting a destructively creative war somewhere. or two.

Syd 22:29 GMT January 15, 2009
Govt To Tackle Unemployment By Creating 400,000 Jobs - Nikkei
Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The government plans to tap the ranks of the unemployed to fill some 400,000 new jobs it will create in nursing care, child care, the environmental field and other areas as part of emergency employment measures, the Nikkei reported in its Friday morning edition.

Syd 22:12 GMT January 15, 2009
Russian Ruble To Continue Weakening - BBH.
Reply   
Russia reported $130.5 bln of capital flight in Q4, much more than ever seen before, even during the 1997-1998 crisis. USD/RUBhas risen to an all-time high this week, but we see it weakening to at least 34.0 in the coming weeks, which would put its performance on parwith BRL and AUD. Central bank has widened the ruble trading band 4 out of the past 5 days, and so the pace of weakening has picked up.Exports plunged 17% y/y in Nov, so the impact of lower energy prices is already being felt. Clearly, the ruble needs to continue weakening due to a huge negative terms of trade shock, andexplains the central bank’s ongoing efforts to engineer a controlled weakening.Some analysts are looking for a some sort of float, but we
don’t think it will be attempted, as the ruble would simply sink like a stone. As an extremely risky country in the midst of a global recession,
we expect Russian assets to underperform over much of 2009. And Russia is doing itself no favors with the ongoing gas dispute with the
Ukraine, which is harming Western Europe and keeping investor sentiment on Russia negative. As the thinking goes, if one cannot trust
Russia as a trading partner, how can one justify investing in Russia?
Report by WinThin Brown Bros Harriman

dc CB 22:12 GMT January 15, 2009
TARP
Reply   
Senate votes 52-42 to release additional TARP funds to Treasury - CNBC

Amsterdam Bobsy 20:55 GMT January 15, 2009
FX?
Reply   
Hillegom Purk 17:40 GMT January 15, 2009

......"and start small, and end big."
That is exactly the same as you do when you visit the " supermarket"...remember son....Always think big even though you are small...lol...

Belgrade Knez 20:45 GMT January 15, 2009
USD safe haven?

Maribor & dc

Thanks for your time and the answers.
GL & GT

GVI Forex john 20:23 GMT January 15, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Click for Complete Chart Points

15-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.3165

89.66

1.1217

1.4658

1.2503

High

1.3243

90.02

1.1290

1.4685

1.2674

Low

1.3026

88.48

1.1138

1.4475

1.2414

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3257

89.46

1.1078

1.4675

1.2254

10 day

1.3462

91.08

1.0953

1.4648

1.2088

20 day

1.3722

90.77

1.0810

1.4622

1.2135

50 day

1.3267

92.80

1.1394

1.4796

1.2275

100 day

1.3521

98.01

1.1288

1.6010

1.1743

200 day

1.4521

102.08

1.0821

1.7756

1.0970

paris ab 20:12 GMT January 15, 2009
high leverage trade

*57=59

paris ab 20:11 GMT January 15, 2009
high leverage trade
Reply   
Sell audjpy
Entry: 57.8 Target: 56.8 Stop: 60.1

risk aversion coming back

Syd 20:04 GMT January 15, 2009
Full-time jobs disappear as local slump deepens
Reply   
VICTORIA is losing full-time jobs at a rate nearing 150 a day as employers slash costs and switch to cheaper part-time workers in a move set to deepen Australia's economic slump
http://www.theage.com.au/national/fulltime-
jobs-disappear-as-local-slump-deepens-20090115-7i6f.html

GVI Forex Jay 19:08 GMT January 15, 2009
change

paris gulivan
As posted on GVI Forex:

GVI Forex Jay 19:07 GMT January 15, 2009
Tarp Vote: Reply

Stocks appear to be rallying ahead of the Tarp vote later today - fx following

paris gulivan 18:59 GMT January 15, 2009
change
Reply   
what just happened?

Hillegom Purk 18:41 GMT January 15, 2009
aud/usd

Closed the last one at 6603. Did not get much chance on adding [email protected]#$%

Hillegom Purk 18:38 GMT January 15, 2009
aud/usd

Closing one out of 2 at 6579. Rest on b/e for more.

Hillegom Purk 17:48 GMT January 15, 2009
aud/usd

[email protected]#$: i always take more positions at a time so that i can play away....

Lahore FM 17:46 GMT January 15, 2009
Trade Ideas

2nd long gold 804.40,stops 795.

Hillegom Purk 17:40 GMT January 15, 2009
aud/usd

I will add every 23 pips, and start small, and end big.

Hillegom Purk 17:30 GMT January 15, 2009
aud/usd
Reply   
Buy
Entry: 65,53 Target: 66+ Stop: 44

Already started. 1/12 method. aim: glory.
will add till dropsy wopsy.

Lahore FM 16:57 GMT January 15, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/15/2009 15:37:20 FM Lahore 3
stopped for 44
-
long gbpusd 1.4505.stops later.
--
half out at 1.4605,stops to 1.4460 for rest 1/2.

Lahore FM 16:35 GMT January 15, 2009
Trade Ideas

long feb crude 35.43 after getting stopped earlier on 1./2 long for almost break even.stops for this 34.40

Buckingham Chuck 16:32 GMT January 15, 2009
eur.jpy call result
Reply   
Smashing job, Sooty!

Maribor 16:17 GMT January 15, 2009
USD safe haven?

Because people want to understand...commentators are like parrots...they can not say it goes down because you have to lose for somebody to win. That would ruin industry...

dc CB 16:05 GMT January 15, 2009
USD safe haven?

Part of the answer to your question - DJI down/USD up.
This is from briefing.com:

"It appears that there has also been another, more powerful factor at work that has been weighing on the markets recently: the return of forced selling by hedge funds. According to the Financial Times, investors withdrew a net ~$150 bln from hedge funds during the month of December, in spite of moves by dozens of funds to halt or suspend redemptions. The FT further noted that the record December figure was equivalent to about 10% of industry assets. This report confirms what we've suspected over the past few sessions, which were marked by relentless selling and a total absence of bidders: that this forced selling has continued and re-accelerated in January, and that this phenomenon has the capacity to dominate the direction of the market far more than newsflow, even during earnings season."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
In other words, investors are wanting their cash back - their USDs.

Bilad KaL 16:01 GMT January 15, 2009
USDJPY short
Reply   
89.60
Target keep open till next week

Bilad KaL 15:55 GMT January 15, 2009
goog call strike 300

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GGDAR.X

Bought

Belgrade Knez 15:54 GMT January 15, 2009
USD safe haven?

Maribor 15:45 GMT January 15, 2009
Thanks for your reply.
If it doesn't matter if DOW is going down or up, why then everyone relating and calling:us stocks up-dollar down, and other way around?

Maribor 15:45 GMT January 15, 2009
USD safe haven?

It does not matter if sun rises or go down(read: if DJI go up or down) for USD to go up or down. It matters who is making money when exchange rate changes.

Bilad KaL 15:45 GMT January 15, 2009
goog call strike 300
Reply   
6 Hold 321.32 285.46
12 Hold 322.30 286.43
24 Buy 324.27 288.38
46 Buy 327.91 291.98
Buy Buy Buy

Belgrade Knez 15:41 GMT January 15, 2009
USD safe haven?
Reply   
While ago I make inquiry why does usd benefit when US stocks falling, and I still haven't got the answer.
Now again, us stocks falling and everyone is calling usd safe haven!
Why?
I would appreciate if someone can explain.
Thanks.

Lahore FM 15:37 GMT January 15, 2009
Trade Ideas

stopped for 44
-
long gbpusd 1.4505.stops later.

Bilad KaL 15:37 GMT January 15, 2009
DJI
Reply   
hrs
6 Hold 8,560.96 7,972.51
12 Hold 8,569.15 7,981.94
24 Hold 8,585.57 8,000.85
45 Buy 8,614.39 8,034.06 ** next week ***
I am Buying calls

Amman wfakhoury 15:29 GMT January 15, 2009
eur.jpy call result
Reply   
Maribor 15:17 GMT January 15, 2009
====
thks alot ... nice comment from good prof. trader.

Bilad KaL 15:28 GMT January 15, 2009
GBPJPY is perfect range

EURAUD

hrs
6 Hold 2.0206 1.9595
24 Sell 2.0146 1.9537
48 Sell 2.0067 1.9459
120 Sell 1.9832 1.9228
10 big ones south in a week

Maribor 15:17 GMT January 15, 2009
eur.jpy call result

Wasef, that was not only good, that was brilliant!

Bilad KaL 15:09 GMT January 15, 2009
GBPJPY is perfect range
Reply   
hrs
6 Hold 131.7642 126.7848
24 Hold 131.7326 126.7599
48 Hold 131.6904 126.7268
120 Hold 131.5640 126.6273
till next week

NYC 15:07 GMT January 15, 2009
CITI
Reply   
The following memo was distributed from Vikram Pandit to Citi employees earlier
today.

Dear Citi Colleagues,

I want to make sure you know that we've moved up our Q4 2008 earnings
announcement to this coming Friday, January 16. Since we are ready to release
4th quarter earnings and talk about 2009 and the future, we saw no need to wait.


As I told you yesterday in my video message, economics and psychology are both
important in the markets. The economic model of our business is sound and
positions the company for success over the long term. The clarity we provide as
we report earnings should address the psychology of the market.

Until then, here are the things you should know:

* While we are embarked on a long-term transformation of Citi, our core mission
is unchanged. Our goal is to streamline our operations, strengthen our balance
sheet, position ourselves to take advantage of historic global growth
opportunities, and deliver to clients all the benefits of our strength, insight,
and unique global reach.

* We are and will remain a bank. We will continue to help clients save, borrow,
invest, transact, and we will provide them advice.

* Our commitment to our clients remains unchanged. We will continue to deliver
what our clients expect from us. That is our firm commitment. Please reiterate
that to the customers and clients you speak with today.

We continue to be focused on creating value for our shareholders and debt
holders and restoring profitability sooner rather than later.


Thank you for your dedication, focus, and hard work. I look forward to speaking
with you on Friday.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
January 14, 2009 16:38 ET (21:38 GMT)
© 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Lahore FM 15:03 GMT January 15, 2009
Trade Ideas

additional small long eurusd 1.3092,stops at 48.

Bilad KaL 14:52 GMT January 15, 2009
GBPUSD...Buy for next week
Reply   
hrs
6 Hold 1.4766 1.4413
12 Hold 1.4769 1.4416
48 Hold 1.4787 1.4434
120 Buy 1.4823 1.4470

Hong Kong Qindex 14:47 GMT January 15, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3107 Target: 1.2960 Stop: 1.3140

EUR/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle congested area the market is under pressure when it is below 1.3366. The next downside targeting point is 1.2735. The market is negative when it is not able to trade above 1.3077 in New York Closing.

London censored 14:47 GMT January 15, 2009
censored Securities Sells US Business
Reply   
15 January 2009 – censored Securities, the leading independent FOREX, derivatives, equity, spread betting and commodity trading house has sold the US division of its profit making US Forex business to censored LLC (censored).

The move follows the current and planned implementation of new and more complex regulatory rules that have made it increasingly burdensome for all Forex Dealer Members to operate in the United States. These include increases in the minimum amount of regulatory capital that a Forex Dealer Member must maintain - up by three times over the past year and due to increase further in May to $30mn.

A strategic decision was therefore taken by censored to use its financial capital more efficiently to fuel its growth in other parts of the world.

As part of its expansion strategy censored Securities will open new JV offices in Turkey and Australia in the very near future, and expand its operations in Japan and Canada. In the UK head office, the business has been restructured to improve its offering with a focus on multi-lingual customer service and support (censored now has clients from over 100 countries).

Announcing the sale, Graham Wellesley, Chief Executive of censored Securities, said: “This has been a hard decision for us to make, censored Securities Inc. is a very successful and profitable operation, but we could not justify disproportionately supporting one of our smaller subsidiaries.

“We remain firmly committed to expanding our international reach and to that end we have dramatically strengthened the management and resources of our UK Sales and Servicing Teams as well as developing new ventures in Europe, Asia and Australia. We remain profitable and our strategy will continue to focus on growing the business in 2009..”

Bilad KaL 14:46 GMT January 15, 2009
USDJPY just need time

NZDUSD selling
hrs
6 Hold 0.5428 0.5223
12 Hold 0.5421 0.5216
120 Sell 0.5304 0.5098


Newbie I agree
Got this using daily data
20 days

20 Buy 0.9823 0.9210
50 Buy 1.0031 0.9399


amybe a pick from .88 area

Amman wfakhoury 14:44 GMT January 15, 2009
eur.jpy call result
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 13:53 GMT January 15, 2009
eur.jpy call : Reply
This is my call b4 data..it still active.

-----
EUR/JPY
-------
will rise above 118.00 then will decline below 117.00

======
well done with super result

Global-View 14:43 GMT January 15, 2009
Rules
Reply   
ID Newbie 14:41 GMT January 15, 2009 (and others) - one of our rules is you need to use a recognizable location when posting on our forums.

ID Newbie 14:41 GMT January 15, 2009
EUR=GBP soon
Reply   
Buy
Entry: eur/gbp Target: Stop:

Long EUR/GBP. By Mar/Apr, EUR = GBP

Bilad KaL 14:33 GMT January 15, 2009
USDJPY just need time
Reply   
Hrs
6 Hold 89.6041 87.4834
24 Hold 89.5356 87.4169
120 Sell 89.1708 87.0630
I am selling 89.60

Gen dk 14:31 GMT January 15, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bilad KaL 14:24 GMT January 15, 2009
eurjpy call result

hrs
120 Sell 114.03 109.54 next week
24 Sell 117.6278 113.1302
6 Sell 118.3138 113.8158

EURJPY a sell IMO

Amman wfakhoury 14:08 GMT January 15, 2009
eurjpy call result
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 13:53 GMT January 15, 2009
eur.jpy call : Reply
This is my call b4 data..it still active.

-----
EUR/JPY
-------
will rise above 118.00 then will decline below 117.00

-----
well done the first part.

GVI Forex john 13:55 GMT January 15, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Weekly jobs U.S. Refresh to update chart...


Click on chart for five-year history

Amman wfakhoury 13:53 GMT January 15, 2009
eur.jpy call
Reply   
This is my call b4 data..it still active.

-----
EUR/JPY
-------
will rise above 118.00 then will decline below 117.00

Bilad KaL 13:16 GMT January 15, 2009
UAD/CAD

USDCAD a Buy IMO
hrs
6 Hold 1.2610 1.2420
24 Hold 1.2614 1.2425
120 Buy 1.2638 1.2450

this session better buy it @ 1.2420 AREA

GVI Forex john 13:15 GMT January 15, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Click for Complete Chart Points

14-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.3153

89.11

1.1176

1.4583

1.2455

High

1.3338

89.96

1.1240

1.4709

1.2493

Low

1.3093

88.60

1.1123

1.4492

1.2106

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3369

89.81

1.1024

1.4777

1.2116

10 day

1.3541

91.19

1.0908

1.4659

1.2055

20 day

1.3776

90.75

1.0773

1.4643

1.2109

50 day

1.3259

92.96

1.1403

1.4820

1.2263

100 day

1.3537

98.21

1.1286

1.6047

1.1723

200 day

1.4534

102.14

1.0816

1.7782

1.0958

Hong Kong Qindex 13:14 GMT January 15, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/JPY
Entry: 117.05 Target: 114.00 Stop: 117.50

EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range is 113.97 – 118.31. As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is under pressure when it is below the upper barrier of the monthly cycle projected series at 116.95 // 118.31*. The corresponding position in the monthly cycle congested area is 117.15. A projected supporting range is located at 107.46* ... 110.17.

GVI Forex john 13:13 GMT January 15, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Earlier. Very weak...

Australian Employment

Bilad KaL 13:12 GMT January 15, 2009
GBPNZD = Great Buy
Reply   
Buy GBPNZD
Entry: 2.7000 Target: 2.7610 Stop: 2.6845

6 Hold 2.7610 2.7028
24 Buy 2.7744 2.7158
120 Buy 2.8467 2.7863

GVI Forex john 13:11 GMT January 15, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   
Final E-Z HICP (and core)...

EZ HICP

Bilad KaL 13:08 GMT January 15, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:


a week from now
Target Range 1.2834 1.2634

24 hrs
1.3202 1.2992

6 hrs
1.3272 1.3060
better sell baby

HK Kevin 13:04 GMT January 15, 2009
UAD/CAD
Reply   
Any news out of CAD? My short position from 1.2492 was stopped out at b/e.

Bilad KaL 13:03 GMT January 15, 2009
EURGBP sell
Reply   
Sell EURGBP
Entry: .9069 Target: 0.8886 Stop: .9121

Target Range in a week 0.8715 0.8587
24 hrs range =
0.9024 0.8886

GVI Forex john 13:03 GMT January 15, 2009
G-V Access Issues
Reply   
Problem with G-V access seems to have been with the internet itself not our site.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:01 GMT January 15, 2009
EUR/JPY
Reply   
Sell EUR/JPY
Entry: 117.05 Target: 114.00 Stop: 117.50

EUR/JPY : The current expected trading range is 113.97 – 118.31. As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is under pressure when it is below the upper barrier of the monthly cycle projected series at 116.95 // 118.31*. The corresponding position in the monthly cycle congested area is 117.15. A projected supporting range is located at 107.46* ... 110.17.

Bilad KaL 12:54 GMT January 15, 2009
AUD/USD

RF/
Thanks for AUDUSD
seems I got the same for year Close

0.5864 0.4705
meaning should close between the two figures by dec 30 2009

GVI Forex Jay 12:51 GMT January 15, 2009
Back Online
Reply   
We are back online and while we have yet to hear what caused the interruption, it did not appear to have anything to do with our servers but was a general internet problem. So, whatever caused the issue was beyond our control but happy to be back online after a rare interruption in service. .

Stuttgart Joerg 12:51 GMT January 15, 2009
Forum
Reply   
great, forum works now...

Amman wfakhoury 07:13 GMT January 15, 2009
eur movement call
Reply   
euro movement call will be posted here at 1230 gmt. before data and Trichet conference.

Syd 06:21 GMT January 15, 2009
Traders Are Misjudging RBA's Policy Outlook -CBA
Reply   
Traders pricing in RBA hikes by year-end are misjudging policy makers as Australian economy is likely to be hit hard in coming months, says CBA strategist Adam Donaldson. "We continue to believe markets are under-estimating the severity of the immediate economic contraction and pricing in too-rapid a recovery path"; says "extraordinary" rally in bonds will continue, especially when extent of slowdown dawns on markets and rate hike views are quietly toned down. "This view is unlikely to hold, with the timing of rate hikes likely to be pushed well out into the future as the full force of the global downturn begins to be reflected in Australia's economic data

jkt-aye 04:59 GMT January 15, 2009
Trade Ideas

what's up with gbpusd. my feed show jump back and forth with 14-24 pips spreads. ignite the engine ?

Lahore FM 04:57 GMT January 15, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy
Entry: 117.26 Target: 123 Stop: 116.20

eurjpy is a buy around here for 123 later tomm or early next week imho!

HK [email protected] 04:53 GMT January 15, 2009
Aud/USD
Reply   
philadelphia caba 02:14 GMT January 15, 2009
AUD/USD: Reply
RF, may I ask you how you get .47 as long term buy, pls?
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

That is a long term target computed with my algorithm, amazingly or not it coincides with the 03/31/2001 low.

If you look BTW on the Daily Macd, that too supports a possibility for a big downward correction.

This is definitely not an invitation to trade, as jerks on the way may kill any short term investor, just a reference to where Aud is heading.

Lahore FM 04:45 GMT January 15, 2009
Trade Ideas

2.4298 small short eurnzd stopped at 2.4495 for minus 197.

small long audusd 0.6582 stopped at 0.6560 for minus 22.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:15 GMT January 15, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.3166 Target: 1.3082 Stop: 1.3260

EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is 1.3005 - 1.3279. Sell on rallies is still the preferred trading strategy.


Upside Targeting Points : 1.3279 - 1.3319


Downside Targeting Points : 1.3005 - 1.3016


The following reference is still valid :

... 1.2960* - 1.2995 - 1.3031 // 1.3066 - 1.3102* - 1.3137 - [1.3173] - 1.3208 - 1.3244* - 1.3279 - 1.3315 // 1.3350 - 1.3386* ...

Syd 03:00 GMT January 15, 2009
Australian Govt Should Fast Track Tax Cuts - Analysts
Reply   
Australia's center-left Labor government should fast-track planned tax cuts to kickstart an economy facing a strong risk of following other world nations into a recession in 2009, analysts say. They argue that waiting until July 1 of this year and next to implement already pledged income tax cuts would be too late to help stave off the impact of a rapidly deteriorating global economy.
Chris Richardson, a director at independent think tank Access Economics said the next six-to-nine months are the danger period in terms of Australia sliding into a recession. That makes tax cuts a better option than infrastructure projects, given "it's hard to have the shovels ready to go across that time period." National Australia Bank Chief Economist Alan Oster said any further deterioration in the labor market could spook lawmakers into action. NAB expects the unemployment rate to push up to 6% by the end of 2009, and 6.75% by the end of 2010, with some risk it will rise above 7%. ABN AMRO Chief Economist Kieran Davies said the scope of any further stimulus will depend on the health of the government's balance sheet - with the strong budget surpluses of recent years tipped to evaporate. ABN, NAB and Citigroup are all forecasting an underlying budget balance of close to zero in the year ending June 30, 2009, compared with the government's most recent forecast for a A$5.4 billion surplus.DJ



Syd 02:24 GMT January 15, 2009
NZ
Reply   
NZ PM Key: International Situation Has Deteriorated Since Dec
Treasury Says NZ Econ To Standstill In 2009
Downside Scenario In Dec Treasury Update Will Apply
RBNZ Has More Room To Ease Monetary Policy
Treasury Says Unemployment To Rise To.7.0-7.5%
Strongly In NZ's Interest To Avoid Ratings Downgrade

philadelphia caba 02:14 GMT January 15, 2009
AUD/USD

RF, may I ask you how you get .47 as long term buy, pls?

Syd 01:58 GMT January 15, 2009
Australia Dep PM:
Reply   
Jobs Data Shows Not Immune To Global Crisis
Global Crisis To Have Further Impact


Slump in number of full time workers (43,900 decrease) in Australia in December clearly signals an unemployment rate of 6.0% by year end - St George

HK [email protected] 01:56 GMT January 15, 2009
AUD/USD
Reply   
.

Syd 01:25 GMT January 15, 2009
Aussie Jobs Data Build Case For RBA Cut - ANZ

That offer a medium trade fitting a calcu. that Aud/USD is targeting 0.6250(+-30pips).

Aussie on longer term may be a good buy at about 0.47.

Syd 01:25 GMT January 15, 2009
Aussie Jobs Data Build Case For RBA Cut - ANZ
Reply   
Overall we think for the RBA this adds to the case for another aggressive rate cut in February, particularly in light of other weak data that has been released over the past few weeks,notably weak building approvals, plus downgrades to global economic growth forecasts. ANZ tips 50bp rate cut on February 3, with some risk of 75 bps

HK [email protected] 01:15 GMT January 15, 2009
USD/YEN medium view
Reply   
.

From two different approaches looks like USD/JPY is aiming at around 83.5(+-30pips).

There were suggestion on the net, that it is aiming around about 85.5 as final target, regarding Elliot waves solution.

Likely 83.5 target will take some time, where 85.5 will be a serious obstacle reaching that target.

Tonbridge AL 01:01 GMT January 15, 2009
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Syd 00:52 GMT January 15, 2009
Australia's Deputy PM to hold a press conference following Dec jobs data
Reply   
Australia's employment figures reveal a sharp decline in full-time employment in favor of part-time jobs
AUSTRALIA DEC EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -1.2K V -20KE
(PRIOR REVISED to -16.2K from -15.6K);
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.5% V 4.5%E (PRIOR 4.4%)

Frankfurt 00:50 GMT January 15, 2009
Online hand book for learning FX trading
Reply   
Hi All,
I’m learning how to trade in FX with Baby pips School, but It’s too specific and takes too much time for reading IT, do you know any Online hand book for learning FX trading?.
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Designer
Frankfurt

Syd 00:43 GMT January 15, 2009
Aussie Full-Time Jobs Plunge In Dec
Reply   
Australian economy sheds smaller than expected 1,200 jobs in December, making consecutive months of job losses and pushing unemployment up to 4.5% from 4.4%, its highest level since March 2007. Data includes a huge 43,900 drop in full-time employment and sends a further signal that job market showing cracks in response to global economic crisis. With forward looking indicators of employment souring quickly, financial markets expecting RBA to cut interest rates aggressively after February 3 policy meeting. Size of cut likely to be in order of 100 bps, bring cash rate target down to 3.25%. dj

Syd 00:32 GMT January 15, 2009
oz
Reply   
Australia Dec Employment -1,200; Consensus -20,000
Australia Dec Unemployment Rate 4.5%; Consensus 4.5%
Australia Full-Time Employment -43,900
Australia Participation Rate 65.0%; Consensus 65.0%

Australia Unemployment Rate Highest Since Mar 07

 




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