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Forex Forum Archive for 01/18/2009

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Syd 23:35 GMT January 18, 2009
Australian TD-MI Inflation Gauge Dn 0.2% In Dec Vs Nov
Reply   
A monthly gauge of Australian inflation fell by 0.2% in December from November, its third consecutive monthly decline, with annual inflation easing to 2.2%, its slowest pace since May 2005. The RBA targets inflation of 2% to 3% over the course of the economic cycle. The RBA has cut its official cash rate by 300 basis points to 4.25% in the closing months of 2007, with markets expecting a further aggressive cut in early February after the central bank's next policy meeting Feb. 3.

Lahore FM 22:21 GMT January 18, 2009
Trade Ideas

s&p 500 and gold both are in 840's.can they both rally to 1000.techs seem they can.let us see!

Lahore FM 22:15 GMT January 18, 2009
Trade Ideas

:)..many many thanx.what an absolute pleasure to read your post..not only because you are very kind but because of the inimitable way you write the english!!!

keep 'em coming..always!

philadelphia caba 21:43 GMT January 18, 2009
usd/jpy
Reply   
Buy usd/jpy
Entry: 91 Target: Stop:

long usd/jpy with stop below last week low and target 95+ might work for this week...

Norway e.s 21:37 GMT January 18, 2009
Trade Ideas

F.M , Thank you very much for kind words!
I reed all your post whit big interest, not onli are you a grate trader buth your behaviour is alsow wery good!

Syd 20:31 GMT January 18, 2009
Germany set for worst recession
Reply   
LINK

Spanish Govt Has Shored Up All It Can For Crisis: Minister
MADRID (AFP)--Spain has funneled all the public spending it can into tackling the country's economic crisis, Spanish Finance Minister Pedro Solbes said in an interview in El Pais published Sunday.

Australia faces a ballooning current account deficit in 2009 as global demand for the resource-rich nation's export commodities evaporates but consumers' appetite for imports remains resilient, according to Access Economics.

Australia Curr Acct To Blow Out As Commodity Prices Dip-Access
The Canberra-based think tank, in its latest quarterly Business Outlook published Monday, predicts the current account deficit will blow out to a massive 10% of gross domestic product in the September quarter, from just 3.2% of GDP in September 2008. In the fiscal year ending June 30, 2010, the current account deficit will be around A$109 billion, or 9% of GDP, it said. "The pain will become particularly evident from the start of April when coal and iron ore contracts roll over onto the new year. That combination is very ugly," he said. Richardson wouldn't be drawn on whether such a large deficit may threaten Australia's triple-A sovereign debt rating. However, neighboring New Zealand, which notched up a sizable current account deficit of around 8% of GDP in 2008, had its double-A-plus rating put under review by international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's Ratings last week. Australia's current account deficit, if brought to the attention of the international investment community, could reduce the flow of foreign capital into the country, making it difficult to service debt. "I don't think the markets have done the math yet - if you think in terms of the punishment they've meted out to a number of nations in recent times that spent more than they earned and are having difficulty financing that because credit markets are jumpy," Richardson said.

"Australia exactly fits that bill but we haven't faced the same sort of punishment. It's not clear to me that will last, especially as people realize what a hit is coming to our export earnings from April," when contract prices achieved by Australian miners in annual price negotiations due next month take effect, he said.






Syd 20:08 GMT January 18, 2009
Germany set for worst recession
Reply   
The German economy is set to suffer its deepest recession since World War II, with growth to slump by as much as 2.5%, the Economy Minister says.'This year, economic output is expected to fall by between two and 2.5 %,' Glos said in an interview with Welt am Sonntag released on Friday and set to be published in full on Sunday. LINK

Debt refinancing aid from Government
According to the Financial Review, the move is spurred by the worry that more and more foreign banks would exit Australia, making credit harder to come by.
LINK

Syd 19:50 GMT January 18, 2009
Aus.
Reply   
Forecaster predicts gloomy 2009
LINK
The forecaster is also predicting:
- Global growth in 2009 will be worse than at any time since the early 1990s, and may well be the worst in several decades;
- Australia's recent prosperity will unwind 'scarily' fast on the back of a slowdown in China;
- A big fall in the rate of Australia's inflation, as petrol prices tumble and retailers and wholesalers cut margins;
- Official interest rates will be cut to 2.5 per cent;
- The $A to tumble to US56 cents in 2009;
- Unemployment to jump from its present rate of 4.5 per cent to more than seven per cent by early 2010;
- The price of an average home to fall by up to eight per cent this year.

Property market in free fall
THE West Australian property market is being decimated following the evaporation of the resources boom, with values of $1 million-plus properties plummeting 20 per cent and the equivalent of more than two years' supply of homes flooding real estate agencies.LINK

Overseas students pull out
FOREIGN students have begun to pull out of Australia, in what could be the first sign of a softening in the $14.2 billion-a-year overseas student industry.

Downturn likely to hit Chinese workers hardest
THE economic crisis is set to hit workers harder in China than in any other big economy, with a leading scholar predicting 50 million Chinese people could be out of work this year
LINK

singapore rs 19:29 GMT January 18, 2009
euro

this is starting to look very good to start the week euro is now 1.3368, time to sell usd!

singapore rs 18:03 GMT January 16, 2009
euro: Reply
Buy euro
Entry: 1.3238 Target: 1.37-1.38 Stop: 1.3143

if this position survives, then after Obama's inauguration it will be time to sell usd

Lahore FM 18:50 GMT January 18, 2009
Trade Ideas

DS,thanx for your appreciative words.i try to strike a balance between the moving averages and the analysis of the price action.

--
Norway es!it is always wonderful to see you around.i love reading all of your weekend posts.it would be nice if you posted during the week too.

dc CB 17:50 GMT January 18, 2009
TARP
Reply   
At the Palm Beach Ritz-Carlton last November, John C. Hope III, the chairman of Whitney National Bank in New Orleans, stood before a ballroom full of Wall Street analysts and explained how his bank intended to use its $300 million in federal bailout money.

“Make more loans?” Mr. Hope said. “We’re not going to change our business model or our credit policies to accommodate the needs of the public sector as they see it to have us make more loans.”

Bailout Is a Windfall to Banks, if Not to Borrowers

GVI Forex Blog 15:01 GMT January 18, 2009
Mauldin
Reply   
From ou blog:

The Endgame

Hong Kong Qindex 12:06 GMT January 18, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell Crude Oil
Entry: 38.0 - 40.0 Target: 28.5 Stop: 42.5

Crude Oil : Weekly Cycle Analysis

Expected Range : 20.3 - 50.6

Normal Lower Limits : 7.4*- 9.0 - 14.7
Lower Mid-Point Reference : 17.7* - 20.6 - 24.9
Weekly Cycle Pivot Centers : (28.1) - (32.1) - (35.0)
Upper Mid-Point Reference : 38.4* - 43.7 - 45.2
Normal Upper Limits : 48.7 - 55.3 - 55.3

Weekly Cycle Projected Series : ... 7.4 - 10.8* - 14.3 - 16.0 // 17.7* - 19.5 - 21.2 - 22.9 - 24.6* - 26.3 - [28.1] - 29.8 - 31.5* - 33.2 - 34.9 - 36.7 - 38.4* // 40.1 - 41.8 - 45.3* - 48.7 ...

Weekly Cycle Congested Area : 4.5 - 16.3 - (28.1 - 39.9) - 51.7 - 63.5

Suggested Trade : Sell 1/3 - 1/2 in the first entry point
Entry Points : 38.0 - 40.0
Target(s) : 28.5
Stop(s) : 42.5

Hong Kong Qindex 09:44 GMT January 18, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell S&P 500
Entry: 884.7 - 889.4 Target: 813 Stop: 915

S&P-500 (SP, CME) : Weekly Cycle Analysis

Expected Range : 797.4 - 893.0

Normal Lower Limits : 615.6* - 644.4 - 697.4
Lower Mid-Point Reference : 714.1* - 755.6 - 804.2
Weekly Cycle Pivot Centers : (812.7) - (866.8) - (910.9)
Upper Mid-Point Reference : 911.2 - 977.9 - 1017.7
Normal Upper Limits : 1009.8* - 1089.1 - 1124.4

Weekly Cycle Projected Series (848.6) : ... 615.6 - 648.4* - 681.3 - 697.7 // 714.1* - 730.5 - 747.0 - 763.4 - 779.8* - 796.2 - [812.7] - 829.1 - 845.5* - 861.9 - 878.4 - 894.8 - 911.2* // 927.6 - 944.1 - 976.9* - 1009.8 ...

Weekly Cycle Congested Area : 474.8 - 587.4 - 700.0 - (812.7 - 925.3) - 1037.9 - 1150.6

Suggested Trade : Sell 1/3 - 1/2 in the first entry point
Entry Points : 884.7 - 889.4
Target(s) : 813.0
Stops : 915.0

Remarks : A projected resistant level has been established at 911.2 - 912.2. The market is going to consolidate between 822.5 - 864.1 for the time being. An energy barrier is located at 851.3 // 892.0. If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 767.1, the lower trading range at 670.3 - 699.7 is likely to be challenged. The recent low is 739.0.

Syd 06:13 GMT January 18, 2009
Stay cool as dollar drops
Reply   

What a difference a year makes. This time last year the Australian dollar was riding high, with favourite overseas holiday destinations the cheapest they had been for 20 years. But the global financial crisis has caused the Australian dollar to tumble against most currencies. Surfers Paradise looks a better proposition for holidaymakers than San Francisco, with the US now 30 per cent more expensive than a year ago.


http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/money/
planning/stay-cool-as-dollar-drops/2008/12/15/1229189534650.html

Syd 06:06 GMT January 18, 2009
Tough times for local mining sector as prices sink
Reply   
THE nation's mining industry has had one of its darkest weeks in years as the global economic crisis bit harder.More than 1000 workers were axed, or put on notice, and more than $US2 billion ($3 billion) of expansion shelved or slowed.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.
au/business/story/0,28124,24922203-643,00.html

Syd 05:57 GMT January 18, 2009
German banks face billions more in losses: report
Reply   
Agence France-Presse
GERMAN banks face further losses running into the billions of euros as only a quarter of their toxic assets have been written off.

Germany's respected Der Spiegel weekly based its report on a survey of 20 banking institutions carried out by Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, and the financial market watchdog Bafin.

The survey revealed that German banks possess 300 billion euros ($A592 billion) in toxic assets and have so far only written off the most rotten, which represent a quarter of the total, the report said.

"The remainder is still registered in accounts at illusory values," said Der Spiegel.

According to the magazine, government economic experts believe the remaining write-downs are considerable and could lead to "very heavy new losses for the banks".

The finance ministry estimates the volume of assets at risk in the German banking sector to be in the region of one trillion euros ($A1.97 trillion) , Der Spiegel said.

"In the worst case scenario, it could run to more than double the federal debt," an aide to Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck told the magazine on condition of anonymity.

Several leading bankers have called for the creation of a "bad bank" as a way out of the credit crunch.

By allowing banks to dump bad assets and troubled loans, the proposed bank would help restore confidence between banks that was shattered by the financial crisis, leading to a squeeze on interbank lending and tighter credit for the economy at large.

But the Der Spiegel report said Steinbrueck believed the size of the assets at risk meant it would be irresponsible to create such an institution.

Germany's ruling left-right coalition has noted that 400 billion euros ($A789.42 billion) in loan guarantees for the banking sector in the so-called Soffin fund were designed with the same aim in mind, to jumpstart lending between banks.

Leading bankers say those guarantees distort competition in favour of banks that have state-backed guarantees and make conditions harder for those that have not needed the aid.

Syd 05:50 GMT January 18, 2009
.
Reply   
NYC 03:16 GMT brilliant analysis :-))

Economists defy Spring Street: recession is here
THE Victorian economy is heading into a recession that will trigger a sharp jump in unemployment as consumer spending dries up, business investment stalls and manufacturing crashes, a leading economic forecaster has pre- dicted.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/economists-defy-
spring-street-recession-is-here-20090117-7jm4.html?page=-1

NYC 03:16 GMT January 18, 2009
!!1
Reply   
Moscow Vasya 13:02 GMT January 17, 2009
Russki...i have the best trade that will make you rich: GO SHORT ON VODKA AND LONG ON THERAPY.....

Hong Kong Qindex 03:12 GMT January 18, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Gold : Weekly Cycle Analysis

Expected Range : 819.6 - 869.9

Normal Lower Limits : 646.4 - 654.0* - 710.8
Lower Mid-Point Reference : 715.6 - 726.5* - 776.5
Weekly Cycle Pivot Centers : (784.7) - (798.9*) - (842.2)
Upper Mid-Point Reference : 853.8 - 871.4* - 908.0
Normal Upper Limits : 923.0 - 943.8* - 973.7

Weekly Cycle Projected Series (839.3) : ... 654.0 - 678.2* - 702.3 - 714.4 // 726.5* - 738.6 - 750.6 - 762.7 - 774.8* - 786.9 - [798.9] - 811.0 - 823.1* - 835.2 - 847.2 - 859.3 - 871.4* // 883.5 - 895.5 - 919.7* - 943.8 ...

Weekly Cycle Congested Area : 550.5 - 633.3 - 716.1 - (798.9 - 881.7) - 964.5 - 1047.3

Suggested Trade : 1/3 - 1/2 in the first entry point
Entry Points : 869.0 - 878.0
Target(s) : 819.6
Stop(s) : 885.0

 




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