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Forex Forum Archive for 01/28/2009

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Syd 23:36 GMT January 28, 2009
The bombshell comes as the International Monetary Fund revealed that Britain's recession would be th
Taxes to soar by £20BILLION as IMF warns Britain faces deeper recession than any other country

Syd 23:10 GMT January 28, 2009
RBNZ To Cut Another 100 bps In March - Citi
Citigroup now expects 100bp RBNZ easing at March policy review vs 50 bp previously; tips new low in cash rate of 2.50% vs 3.50%; says view driven by RBNZ's 150 bps rate cut today, commentary about deteriorating global outlook combined with limited room for further fiscal easing given credit rating concerns in NZ. Economist Stephen Halmarick agrees NZ inflation will move comformably back into 1%-3% band medium-term. Notes in RBNZ's December forecasts, outlook for major trading partners growth in 2009 was +1.2%. "This has subsequently been revised down to (contraction of) 0.4% - a massive move, with risks likely still to the downside."

philadelphia caba 22:56 GMT January 28, 2009

would be sweet to buy physical silver at your price ...

eu kaprikorn 22:53 GMT January 28, 2009
EURUSD resistance
forgot to mention the 100 day MA at 1.3390...
/all MAs based on 00:00 GMT close/

GENEVA DS 22:48 GMT January 28, 2009

Entry: Target: Stop:

Caba... no not really know why 60.00.... have calculated that one back many years with elliotwaves... but may be targets will be missed, and we could fall much lower... mathematics are not always working.... but BLACK SWANS do...

Gen dk 22:46 GMT January 28, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

philadelphia caba 22:45 GMT January 28, 2009

did mean eur&gbp/jpy..

Syd 22:45 GMT January 28, 2009
GENEVA DS 22:37 tend to agree - think we have a good clean out yet to come

eu kaprikorn 22:45 GMT January 28, 2009
EURUSD Resistance
DS --- yes indeed interesting the daily:
20 MA -- 1.3327
50 MA -- 1.3319
a nice cluster of resistance and a pending dead cross 20x50, supporting your view - not to mention the EURUSD daily chart is showing a clear down channel...
all the best to you!!

philadelphia caba 22:44 GMT January 28, 2009

DS, just wondering, where you getting such nice round levels, as targets...would you mind to elaborate more on why eur&gbp will be at 60 ... etc, pls? thanks

GENEVA DS 22:37 GMT January 28, 2009

tks caprikorn... i am one as welll... and for your information... probably EURUSD will sink pretty fast next... would not be surprised to see new lows under 1.2000 before mid february.... of course EURCHF will be main looser as 1.5200ish is the top of this squeeze then down to 1.3500 , where the SNB probably will be verbally active again... they have unfortunately no powder left... sent all the money to Poland and Hungary already... no intervention...

eu kaprikorn 22:32 GMT January 28, 2009
hello friend -- I enjoy your long term calls tnx for those views shared here..

US SW 22:30 GMT January 28, 2009
Doll Strengh
Entry: 1.15 Target: 120.00 Stop: 14.85

gaining stength and the EURCHF is also on track for higher highs this month....

GENEVA DS 22:22 GMT January 28, 2009

Entry: Target: Stop:

Tks Lahore.... our firms view is since about 1 year that GBPJPY goes to 60.00 and EURJPY 60.00 as well, which could translate to 30.00 in AUDJPY... I remember, in this forum , when I wrote about that, there were only some teaser comments after that... we are playing that anti carry game, until it is over... and this has a long way to go. But of course, as you play those correctly ... there are always nasty short squeezes in BEAR - markets... right now , this is nothing else than one of those squeezes... when it fiddles out this week or early next week, it will be a DRAMA to see those falling down... I think even (not so sure this one though...) that Silver could get a nice downdraft to 6 or 7 bucks next 2 month or so.... we will get stuff MUCH cheaper my friends... think there is another 50-70 pct downmoves in all markets to be done first , before you will have good long term buying opportunities ... but lets trade in between ,,, lets trade bear markets. we should NOT mislead the readers , that now the bull is back... good luck to all

Lahore FM 22:14 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

back for a jiffy!
buy eurusd,wear gold and diamonds!
out again!

Syd 21:58 GMT January 28, 2009
RBA Set For Another Big Rate Cut - Report
RBA set to slash rates further next week, possibly by 75 bps or 100 bps, says noted RBA watcher and newspaper columnist Terry McCrann. "A bigger cut can't be ruled out absolutely. But it would take a monumental, dramatically sudden, global meltdown to force a cut of 125 or 150 points." Views are in line with market pricing already, but traders carefully watch McCrann's column after he famously called an about turn in RBA policy in August last year, ahead of a September rate cut. RBA meets Feb. 3.

Lahore FM 21:57 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

89.90/90.10 to work as resonable support for usdjpy into asia imho!
goodnight all!

Syd 21:55 GMT January 28, 2009
New Zealand posted a larger than forecast goods trade deficit in December as consumption imports ros
Statistics New Zealand said there was a deficit of NZ$347 million in December, following a revised deficit of NZ$588 million in November and compared with a surplus of NZ$39 million in December 2007.
The December deficit was wider than the median NZ$50 million deficit forecast by 9 economists in a Dow Jones Newswires poll. Statistics New Zealand said exports grew at 4.5% in December on month to NZ$3.85 billion, while imports fell 1.8% to NZ$4.20 billion.

Syd 21:45 GMT January 28, 2009
Australia Treasurer Swan: Govt to act quickly and with decisive action, evaluate running a temporary deficit- Notes that Tax cuts will not yield the necessary stimulus

USD should hold its gains after Fed meeting in Asia session, while likely further aggressive RBA rate cuts means AUD is a sell on rallies, says Bank of New Zealand Strategist Danica Hampton. Says focus now is on how big RBA will cut, in turn eroding AUD support. Notes support should kick in at 0.6600, resistance at 0.6780. "Bounces will be limited, global concerns and views on the RBA will encourage selling on rallies." AUD/USD last 0.6654. Says USD was oversold ahead of FOMC, should hold a firmer bias.

Lahore FM 21:29 GMT January 28, 2009

TC,much respect DS!!

i think his post regarding audjpy is centred on his view of money flows and a possible final flushout of carry as he sees it.for me though i see weaker jpy right ahead.shud help audjpy higher.same for nzdjpy.

GVI Forex john 21:28 GMT January 28, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Click for Complete Chart Points

























Simple mva






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Syd 21:26 GMT January 28, 2009
Further RBNZ Rate Cuts To Weigh NZD - Westpac
RBNZ's aggressive policy response clearly signals further rate cuts ahead and downside for NZD says Westpac FX Strategist Robert Rennie. Expects NZD/USD to break below 0.5000, last 0.5192. Says massive unwind of global economy will hammer growth-linked currencies near term. "I don't understand any arguments for being long at the moment."

BRISBANE TC 21:26 GMT January 28, 2009

Hi All Thanks for your valued comments

FM intersted to hear what you think on these comments audjpy

Lahore FM 21:23 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

small long nzdjpy at 47.38,stops 46.30.

GENEVA DS 21:17 GMT January 28, 2009
Entry: Short Target: Stop:

The Ponzi - scheme of all currencies , which had a positive carry (or still have) ... ( GBP-AUD-NZD and other high yielder) is probably gonna fall soonest.... Speculators have built again in the last few days ENORMOUS long positions there and shorts in CHF and JPY... This Monopoly game will be over soon... there is NOT ONE REAL BUYER of those currencies... all is ULTRA SHORT TERM SALPER money... good lord... have fun all... We did some shorting AUDJPY at 60.23 today, The stop loss is 6165 and our aimed target is 45.00 or lower in 60 days...

Lahore FM 21:11 GMT January 28, 2009

ET gold is positively supporting aud and so is weaker jpy.the effect if any might be minimal from current 0.6649 even in case of 100 bp or more cut.

Houston ET 21:08 GMT January 28, 2009
My focus will now shift to AUD as RBA is expected to deliver 100 bps rate cut next week. So I'll be selling into rallies.

Syd 20:58 GMT January 28, 2009
RBNZ Being Preemptive, Prepared To Cut More -ANZ
RBNZ is taking preemptive action to try and revive economy, guarding against further deterioration in global, NZ activity, says ANZ senior economist Khoon Goh; "Today's move is a preemtive one, and is aimed at providing more stimulus to the economy." Says central bank shows it's prepared to cut rates further as concerned about lack of growth; could take rates as low as 2.00%-2.50% vs 3.50% now after today's 150 bp cut. Says RBNZ keen to raise depressed confidence, ensure businesses don't fall into hole.

Lahore FM 20:56 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

long eurcad 1.5977.stops 1.5750.

Lahore FM 20:49 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

eurgbp correction lower has probably run its course with day's low at 0.9205.

Lahore FM 20:46 GMT January 28, 2009

good trade ET.i entred another small long at ur exit.

Lahore FM 20:43 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/28/2009 09:38:34 FM Lahore 11
european indices mostly up and today can be a good move where world indices make reasonable gains!
the longs on the euro indices played very well today.more of the samr tomm i guess.

Lahore FM 20:41 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/28/2009 09:20:04 FM Lahore 13
entered small long order at 0.5200 nzdusd just in case it gets there before up.
filled at 0.5200,stops at 0.5090.

Houston ET 20:40 GMT January 28, 2009

Correction: 0.5200. But could go lower if u want to risk it.

Lahore FM 20:40 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/27/2009 20:24:17 FM Lahore 25
long citi 3.57,stops at 3.05 looking for 5 and higher.
half out at 4.11.stops to 3.30 for rest.

Houston ET 20:38 GMT January 28, 2009

Pecs: Just exited my shorts in NZD below 1.5200

NYC BF 20:37 GMT January 28, 2009
pecs andras
Entry: Target: Stop:

pecs andras, low from earlier this month the low was .5164/70, with the low on the consolidation (4-hour)looking to be about the same, a break below these levels could signal a further drop, to levels not seen previously.

Syd 20:32 GMT January 28, 2009
Bollard: RBNZ Has Plenty Of Room To Move If Needed
Bollard: NZD's Fall Expected With Commodity Prices Declining

Syd 20:26 GMT January 28, 2009
George Soros has been shorting sterling during its recent slide
Asked by The Daily Telegraph whether he agreed with his erstwhile investor colleague Jim Rogers that the pound was heading further down in the coming months, he said: "I did foresee the fall in sterling this year.

"I did actually have a short position in sterling and it was one of the trades I carried out. But sterling did fall from around $ 2 to about $1.40 and at that level the risk-reward balance is no longer compelling. I'm not saying won't fall any more though - it will continue to fluctuate"

Pecs Andras 20:23 GMT January 28, 2009
Guys, I am short NDZ/USD from 5300 before the rate cut. What would be a good level to exit?
Any ideas about the upcoming trade balance effect on the pair?

Syd 20:17 GMT January 28, 2009
RBNZ Negative For NZD S&P have a magnifying glass over them - CBA
"Prudent" 150 bps cut by RBNZ will likely weigh NZD/USD, as it further erodes risk premium on the high-yield currency, says CBA FX Strategist Richard Grace. "The NZD is a special case because the S&P have a magnifying glass over them at the moment."

Syd 20:04 GMT January 28, 2009
things must be bad in kiwi land
RBNZ Bollard: Intl Outlook Much Worse Than Seen In Dec MPS
News Coming From Trading Partners Very Negative
News Coming From Trading Partners Very Negative
Further OCR Cuts Likely Smaller Than Recent Cuts
More Cuts Depend On Domestic, Global Developments
Intl Slowdown To Hurt NZ More Than Seen In Dec MPS
Huge Uncertainty ABout Timing, Strength Of Recovery

NYC BF 20:04 GMT January 28, 2009
unexpected rate cut
Sell NZD
Entry: Target: Stop:

keep an eye out for tonight after kiwi markets open for further weakness in nzd/usd continuing from earlier fed meeting, into rbnz meeting

porto Analistafx 20:02 GMT January 28, 2009
RBNZ cuts
Entry: Target: Stop:

RBNZ cuts 150 basis points

Syd 20:01 GMT January 28, 2009
Reserve Bank Of NZ Cuts Cash Rate Target 150 Bps To 3.50%

Syd 19:56 GMT January 28, 2009
Dollar continues to rally post FOMC, dealers note key hourly support for Euro at 1.3070 -GBP/USD 1.4245 gives back a big figure following announcement
*FOMC HOLDS RATE AT 0.25%; Prepared to buy longer term treasuries if could improve credit market conditions, rate may be 'exceptionally' low for period of time
- Reiterates inflation could persist below desirable levels in the coming quarters, credit conditions are extremely tight for households and firms.
- Vote was 8-1 (Lacker Dissented, preferring to purchase US Treasuries)
- Fed states "Information received since the Committee met in December suggests that the economy has weakened further"

Clogland Purk 19:37 GMT January 28, 2009

Well the tick tick took some time, but it came through after a few false moves. Range of last days intact. Lets see. market tells us many things.

Syd 19:33 GMT January 28, 2009
AUD, NZD Drop After Fed Statement
AUD, NZD drop in volatile trade vs USD after Fed statement, which signaled policymakers ready to buy longer-dated Treasurys to unclog credit markets; AUD/USD falls to 0.6637 vs 0.6722 pre-Fed, NZD/USD off to 0.5301 vs 0.5360. Broad USD gains, rising stocks pace FX action immediately after Fed. AUD may hold on to support of 0.6625 though further broad USD gains could test these levels; NZD set to be driven by RBNZ, which due at 0900 NZT (2000 GMT); support at 0.5300 vulnerable as Kiwi braces for potentially bigger-than-expected rate cut.

Lahore FM 19:32 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

third long 1.3119,stops 2 and half longs.

Syd 19:30 GMT January 28, 2009
ECB's Trichet: Quantitative easing would not be difficult for the ECB, no measures off the table - Excludes nothing in alternative policy measures, noting that ECB is already taking "non-standard" approaches.
- says he does not see a bubble in govt bond markets.

ECB's Weber: Banks facing higher risks, expects many banks to report "massive" losses in Q4; unsure when commodity prices to reach bottom

Dutch PM: May need to take additional steps to stabilize financial sector, may consider additional fiscal stimulus measures within weeks

ECB's Nowotny: Eastern European countries should take coordinated action

S&P cuts ratings on hybrid instruments of "some European banks"- No further details available at this time

.ECB's Orphanides: dangerous for Central banks to 'save' their ammunition, low rate 'aversion' may affect actions, must pay attention to quantity of money - Notes that it is a false belief that low rates are ineffective.
- stresses these comments are his own opinion and not those of the ECB.

Rate cuts promise $1000 in pockets
MORTGAGE holders will be about $1000 a month better off in total next week, as the Reserve Bank resumes its most aggressive interest rate-cutting campaign in decades against the most bleak global economic backdrop since World War II.

Maribor 19:28 GMT January 28, 2009

Some boyz are using force...

NYC ET 19:25 GMT January 28, 2009
FOMC reaction
Anyone have an insight what in the FOMC caused this reaction? I can't find anything that was the catalyst.

Lahore FM 19:20 GMT January 28, 2009
4 hr. charts

thanx Bobl!

Amman wfakhoury 19:14 GMT January 28, 2009
eur.jpy movement analysis result
Amman wfakhoury 15:57 GMT January 28, 2009
eur.jpy movement analysis call: Reply
my call is active for 24 hour

well done .. we are now at level 119.40

San Diego bobl 18:11 GMT January 28, 2009
4 hr. charts
Absolutely agree, and I much much prefer to trade longer term with wider stops/targets. However, the current market to me has not held up for as long is worthwhile imho. usd/cad only trade conforming to that right now imho.

good stuff


Lahore FM 18:01 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

Bob,the s/l of 4 is justified with t/p of 18 dolls.of course there are times when one can use surgical precision entry but not off four hour charts.there you ahve to have larget stops for larger gains.

San Diego bobl 17:52 GMT January 28, 2009
stock market
The stock market of late has been a very good barometer of currency direction. Obviously, the stock market is on the ropes but some mixed trading there has thrown many traders into a quandry of what to think of the relationship. FWIW the market has disjointed between the DJIA and TRANPORTION averages. Until they confirm, or come into agreed alignment, I would not expect a steady directional trade; the importance there is for us in FX that it also is in disarray.


Bilad KaL 17:37 GMT January 28, 2009
Are staring a rallie IMO
these days could be the lowest points

will Long next day

San Diego bobl 17:18 GMT January 28, 2009
Currencies and gold
There is not a single cross that is in full alignment for a longer term trade, with the possible exception of USD/CAD short. That is not complete, but is the closest to lining up accross the timeframes. JP has noted the importance of taking the 1.18 handle to confirm the short side, and I see 1.15 down to 1.10 as a potential.

I noted earlier on the GVI side the negative divergence at an intermediate 3X top from last year to now that may take gold lower, which at some point, if it unfolds more, a great opportunity to add/reload when it seems most difficult.

As a general note, in short term markets like now, as Jay noted it appears the European session goes one way, and the US session has been taking it back. What this translates to for shorter term trades is that generally the hardest trades to take are the better trade results. Lots of traps and stop gunning with the global uncertainty.


Netherlands Bob 17:18 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

FM, better fight with floating profit then with floating loss, so the right entry is the initial profit ... that's my two cents from years of trading :)

Hong Kong Qindex 17:11 GMT January 28, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Entry: 0.9244 Target: 0.9414 Stop: 0.9170

EUR/GBP : The market is under pressure when it is below 0.9170. The odds are in favor of taking a long position when the market is trading between 0.9170 - 0.9311.

Bilad KaL 17:09 GMT January 28, 2009
EURNZD and GBPJPY = 4 years
those pair are opposite ways
EURNZD Short and GBPJPY Long...for 4 years
or at least for 16 weeks

dc CB 17:02 GMT January 28, 2009
"good-bad bank"
Floor Talk: Bad bank plan good for financials; although likely to come with costs & the operating environment remains difficult...
.................................................................the details are unknown at this point, but the headlines indicate that the Obama administration is close to a deal to create an entity that would buy illiquid or bad assets from banks. The FDIC is likely to manage the plan, and further details of the plan could be announced next week.

Although it's surprisingly under-reported this morning, the "bad bank" news is what's moving the market today, not any of the earnings reports released after yesterday's close (although WFC's was surprisingly positive) or today's FOMC announcement, which will for the first time in a long time be a relative non-event. As the +11% surge in the XLF indicates, this is a major positive, in that it will presumably remove most of the toxic assets that have been destroying banks' balance sheets over the past year, which should in turn break the repeated cycle of write-downs and capital raises, and ultimately create the conditions for banks to start lending again...........................................................................

Bottom line: There is a legitimate reason for the Financials to rally this morning, and perhaps in the near-term as the plan's details are revealed. Shorts who had bet on the continued deterioration of the banks now have to cover at least a portion of their positions now that another government plan is put into place to further stabilize the sector, and more longs may be tempted to nibble at the highest quality names. Nationalization had become a very real concern lately, and the "bad bank" plan should mitigate much of the immediate capital uncertainty that exists, as well as ensure that the majority of banks survive this cycle. Looking past the immediate benefits however, like the TARP plan before it, this plan is just one more stabilization measure that comes with a real cost for the banks involved, and this may ultimately temper some of today's enthusiasm regarding bank stocks.

Lahore FM 17:01 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

can't agree more Bob!
happy trades to you too!

Netherlands Bob 16:56 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

hi FM ... now it's the time to enter OIL long from the charts I read, top trades to you :)

Lahore FM 16:49 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.3230 Target: 1.3600 Stop: 1.3060

went long 2nd time this week at 1.3230 with 1.3060 stop.

Clogland Purk 16:36 GMT January 28, 2009
range 13311-13211 till now. so 13111 or 13411 in some ticks... tick tick.

Bilad KaL 16:33 GMT January 28, 2009
EURJPY Longs at 118.60 area
Target 121.4

GBPJPY Longs till 131.5
from 128 to 127.63

lkwd jj 16:11 GMT January 28, 2009
govt stimulus
stimulus packadge= the little blue pill ..

Bilad KaL 16:09 GMT January 28, 2009
Out of buys here from NZDUSD Relongs at 1.5260 area

adding shorts usdchf for 1.1250

PAR 16:06 GMT January 28, 2009
good bank bad bank

Good bank , bad bank, no bank is more a kind of Madoff concept imho maybe helped by Copperfiels newest act
" 50 billion gone with the wind " .

lkwd jj 15:59 GMT January 28, 2009
good bank bad bank
is that what nick leeson had 2 accounts? or jett the natural gas trader?

Amman wfakhoury 15:57 GMT January 28, 2009
eur.jpy movement analysis call
my call is active for 24 hour

madrid 15:53 GMT January 28, 2009
Albert Einstein thought
have fun !

Original words of Albert Einstein:

Let's not pretend that things will change if we keep doing the same things. A crisis can be a real blessing to any person, to any nation. For all crises bring progress. Creativity is born from anguish. Just like the day is born form the dark night. It's inventive in crisis that is born, as well as discoveries, and big strategies. He who overcomes crisis overcomes himself, without getting overcome. He who blames his failure to crises neglects his own talent, and is more respectful than to solutions to problems. The incompetence is the true crisis. The greatest inconvenience of people and nations is the laziness with which they attempt to find the solutions to their problems. There's no challenge without a crisis. Without challenges, life becomes a routine, in slow agony. There's no crisis without merits. It's in the crisis where we can show the very best in us. Without a crisis, any wind becomes a tender touch. To speak about a crisis is to promote it. Not to speak about it is to exalt conformism. Let us work hard instead. Let us stop, once and for all, the menacing crisis that represents the tragedy of not being willing to overcome it.

Qiute a clever guy this Albert come to think of it ... Could he have been a great trader ?!!??!


Bilad KaL 15:52 GMT January 28, 2009
EURUSD Longs Maybe here into 1.3450

lkwd jj 15:49 GMT January 28, 2009
nice triangle wedge on hourlies setup.

Amman wfakhoury 15:48 GMT January 28, 2009
EUR/JPY movement analysis
Amman wfakhoury 07:41 GMT January 28, 2009
EUR/JPY movement analysis: Reply
Amman wfakhoury 07:32 GMT January 28, 2009
EUR/JPY movement analysis: Reply
EUR/JPY is in uptrend but it may decline till 11740 or below
to fuel it's up direction ,then it may pass through the following levels 11809 11837 11889 11940 11992.

117.80 level is the sure level to pass again if decline.

still in uptrend but i will exit here around 119.00

Bilad KaL 15:46 GMT January 28, 2009
USDCHF shorts
Maybe will do some here

Hong Kong Qindex 15:43 GMT January 28, 2009
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD : Trading Reference

1.0497 - 1.1003* - 1.1510 - 1.1763 // 1.2016* - 1.2269 - 1.2522 - 1.2776 - 1.3029* - 1.3282 - [1.3535] - 1.3788 - 1.4042* - 1.4295 - 1.4548 - 1.4801 - 1.5054* // 1.5308 - 1.5561 - 1.6067* - 1.6574 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 15:36 GMT January 28, 2009
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD : A major downside targeting point is positioning at 1.0497. It may take 2-3 months to reach this point.

Toronto tn 15:36 GMT January 28, 2009

PAR, Soros owns the Democrat party... the only thing he's defending is global socialism with himself and his monied cronies at the helm.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:15 GMT January 28, 2009
QIndex Trading System

USA BAY 15:13 GMT - Same to you. I just came back from Shanghai.

USA BAY 15:13 GMT January 28, 2009
QIndex Trading System


Hey Dr Q, Gong Xi Fa Chai.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:08 GMT January 28, 2009
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market can easily moved within 1.3767 - 1.4212. The monthly cycle congested area indicates that the market has a tendency to trade within 1.3671 - 1.4435. Apparently we have seen the medium downside targeting point around 1.3502.


It was a little bit disturbing when I suggested that the medium downside targeting point is 1.3465.

11/17/2008 14:58:21 Qindex Hong Kong 593
GBP/USD : Trading Reference

... 1.3465 - 1.3711* - 1.3958 - 1.4081 // 1.4204* - 1.4327 - 1.4451 - 1.4574 - 1.4697* - 1.4820 - [1.4944] - 1.5067 - 1.5190* - 1.5313 - 1.5436 - 1.5560 - 1.5683* // 1.5806 - 1.5929 - 1.6176* - 1.6422 ...

The market is moving in a fast mode. The market rhythm is represented by 1478 pips (1.6422 - 1.4944). We have to exam carefully whether the market will move one more step backward, i.e. towards 1.3465 (1.4944 - 0.1478 = 1.3465). The lower barrier of this projected series is located at 1.4081 // 1.4204 and the upper barrier is expected at 1.5806 // 1.5683. There is a good chance that the market may vibrate around 1.4944 with an expected magnitude of 1.4451 - 1.5436 (985 pips). Anyway the monthly cycle lower limits would give us an early warning on which it wants to go.

Normal Lower Limits : [0.7638] - 0.8927* - [1.1247] - 1.1823* - 1.2224* - [1.2485] - 1.5037 -1.5092 - 1.5192

11/17/2008 14:26:25 jweb isr 594
yeah. and i will eat my hat..

11/17/2008 11:53:24 KaL Bilad 595
I see .6600 for GBPUSD around april 2009
Most likely wrong though

11/17/2008 11:49:30 td singapore 596
Qindex, do you really think cable can go that low from here? I don't think so

11/17/2008 11:34:13 Qindex Hong Kong 597
GBP/USD : The medium term downside targeting point is 1.3465.

PAR 15:01 GMT January 28, 2009
Stiglitz - Soros both saying in the end Us banks will need to be nationalised as Us taxpayer is their only financier.

Stiglitz bank managers and their financing taxpayers have conflicting interests.

Soros existing capital should stay in bad banks and new money should be put in the new good banks .

Strange that the defence of the Us taxpayer needs to come from Soros.

Amsterdam Purk 14:45 GMT January 28, 2009
Golden Years

Well, it is about time Mr. Z. The pro's here are waiting for some direction it seems...

USA ZEUS 14:44 GMT January 28, 2009
Golden Years
Amsterdam Purk 14:25 GMT January 28, 2009

Purk- Great to see you sir! Perhaps it is time to rev the engines and post like a wild banshee?


USA ZEUS 14:26 GMT January 28, 2009
Post 11:33

Wise words professor. Many should read them thrice.

Happy Day!

Amsterdam Purk 14:25 GMT January 28, 2009
Post 11:33

USA ZEUS 14:19 GMT January 28, 2009

Happy new year! wtf have you been? too much work makes you ....

USA ZEUS 14:19 GMT January 28, 2009
Post 11:33

Hello South. No rest from trading in these magnificent trading opportunities. As such, have not been here for a bit. London can R.I.P. knowing that I am always crushing it.


Amsterdam Purk 14:16 GMT January 28, 2009

Amsterdam Bobsy 14:12 GMT January 28, 2009

Never mind the Touaregs, i have just driven an Audi R8 with some HP under the hood... We had fun until officer of the day held us in Amsterdam for speeding up to 250. Nobody killed or injured.

Netherlands Bob 14:15 GMT January 28, 2009
EURNZD Crash Soon

kind of agree with you, GOLD may signal when the top for EUR/NZD will be in place. I am watching $870 for further guidance. good trades.

Amsterdam Bobsy 14:12 GMT January 28, 2009
Amsterdam Purk 14:06 GMT January 28, 2009
So purky...what exactly is that you do when you park TOUAREGS against the trees outside those supermarkets?...

Lahore FM 14:11 GMT January 28, 2009

ET,it is at 0.5320 and an incipient rally .later near or after decision there might be a dip down to day's lows or another possibility of directly higher is not unlikely imho.

Maribor 14:09 GMT January 28, 2009

Probability is calculated according to sample of similar setups, where there is approx. 10% probability to go above some level and ~90% probability to go the other way...combining wih distance to stop or target it gives as stated...However, nothing is sure...

Amsterdam Purk 14:06 GMT January 28, 2009
Post 11:33

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:57 GMT January 28, 2009

Razor sharp doctor professor!
I might add that if one does not know what another person does or whatever, they better do not comment on what that person does or does not... err...
I agree on the e/u longs, but it seems that fairly odd persons wanting better positions.

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:57 GMT January 28, 2009
Post 11:33

London, has it occured to you that no serious trader would devote as much time to this site as you do? Do not confuse 'rest' with making better use of one's time!

As for the freebies... if you're still long EUR/USD, it is time to reconsider.

Toronto tn 13:51 GMT January 28, 2009

...hmm, I wonder how you calculate this probability, as it seems obvious that the probability of your stop (6750) getting done before 6450 is about as close to 100% as possible.

Lahore FM 13:42 GMT January 28, 2009

Maribor,in my view 70 is more likely heron though it may not work well with the way you see aud crosses for now!

Maribor 13:19 GMT January 28, 2009
AUDUSD (now 0,669) at very attractive level for short to ~0, my analysis with stop @0,675 R/R(with statistical probability of this setup) should be ~1:40...

Maribor 12:55 GMT January 28, 2009
EURNZD Crash Soon

I had 2,511 as turn level on EURNZD...long term(normal time for that case is ~2 years) it should also see 1,86...

GVI Forex john 12:24 GMT January 28, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Atlanta South 12:20 GMT January 28, 2009
Post 12:16
I agree with you 100%, but the are not going to. What a mess we have & it will fail.

PAR 12:16 GMT January 28, 2009
Bad Bank
I am in favor of free markets , free trade, limited government and "small is beautifull ". Huge bad bank does not fit any of those criteria. Too big to fail is a communist concept , so why not split up those huge banks into smaller entities which after nationalisation can be privatised on the NYSE . Good for everybody.

Bilad KaL 12:09 GMT January 28, 2009
EURNZD Crash Soon

2.55 as Max
it will have to crash

GENEVA DS 12:01 GMT January 28, 2009
EURNZD Crash Soon

Entry: Target: Stop:

Bilad, think this is a good idea long term.... where is your STOP LOSS on that position ?

Atlanta South 12:00 GMT January 28, 2009
post 11:50
I was not being SERIOUS when I said that. I know what happened & you are correct in your statement. Thanks.

Bilad KaL 11:59 GMT January 28, 2009
EURNZD Crash Soon

Guys U better take a Look
may 1 target is 2.27...= 25 Big Figures one shot...
More then many do in a month...
been selling today
avge @ 2.5120

Mtl JP 11:56 GMT January 28, 2009
Bad Bank

PAR . Keynes may be dead but his adherants (sofar) have hot realized that his idea should have died along with him.

I suppose the only thing about his theory of benefit to the "average" citizen is his adjusting of taxation - preferably to the downside. Maybe he did have a facetious side to him afterall: let the pleibians have a discount while they (or their govt) go bankrupt.

I am in favour of huge tax cuts, the more and immediate the better.

London 11:50 GMT January 28, 2009
Post 11:33

No serious Forex trader takes a rest. He always keeps in touch of the markets. Just ask the more experienced profitable traders.

Atlanta South 11:47 GMT January 28, 2009
Post 11:33
I wonder what had happened to the Zeus. Maybe he's just taking a rest?

PAR 11:39 GMT January 28, 2009
Bad Bank
"Bad Bank" liked by the markets as it fits the capitalistic concept of " privatising profits and socialising losses ". Keynesian idea of spent in bad times and keep spending in good times too much affected by lobbying.

London 11:33 GMT January 28, 2009

Zeus , ABHA FXS , etc like most they all have they day for a few months then get it severely wrong, so they dissappear. Probably come back and have another go with a different city/location.

Mullum gvm 11:11 GMT January 28, 2009
thoughts on AUD? appears to me like it may break higher from here at least on 30 minute charts.

BTW whatever happened to Zeus?

Houston ET 10:58 GMT January 28, 2009

1.5150 is holding so far

Houston ET 10:54 GMT January 28, 2009

Should be able to clear 5250 and 5220. The curve ball or googlie is the FOMC decision at 1915

PAR 10:50 GMT January 28, 2009
California becoming a Hedge Fund ?
SACRAMENTO (AP) - Californians whose tax refunds are still being processed will have to wait at least a month before they get a check.

State controller John Chiang has told the Franchise Tax Board not to send him any more refund requests because they could not be issued by Feb. 1st.

That's the date on which Chiang has said he would start imposing a 30-day delay on tax refunds and other payments because the state is running out of money.

Chiang's spokeswoman, Hallye Jordan, says it takes the controller's office five to seven days to process refunds, putting any checks issued after Tuesday within the Feb. 1st window.

The state is on the brink of issuing IOUs as it faces a $41.6 billion deficit over the next year-and-a-half.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and legislative leaders met again Tuesday in hopes of reaching agreement on a budget solution.

Happy memories

©2009 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Syd 10:45 GMT January 28, 2009
IMF's Strauss-Kahn: Some Countries Queuing Up For Help-Report
Some countries are already queuing up to ask for help from the International Monetary Fund, the IMF's managing director told German weekly newspaper Die Zeit.
In an advanced released report of its Thursday issue, the newspaper cites Dominique Strauss-Kahn in translated comments as saying that if a euro-zone country were to be get in to serious financial difficulties, he expects Europeans to solve this problem themselves but the IMF would also assume this tasks "if it was needed."

He also called on the German government and other countries to increase their help for the banking sector and said setting up a bad bank to purchase troubled assets from banks is a "sensible idea."

Houston ET 10:44 GMT January 28, 2009
Moving down as expected until RBNZ decision at 2000

Gen dk 10:37 GMT January 28, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Houston ET 10:37 GMT January 28, 2009
Attempting to clear the 1.5150 hurdle. Lets see.

PAR 10:37 GMT January 28, 2009
Swiss Jan , KOF leading indicator minus 0.87 vs minus 0.45 in December.

Bilad KaL 10:07 GMT January 28, 2009
EURNZD Crash Soon

Any Looking at EURNZD for a crash?

Syd 10:06 GMT January 28, 2009
UK Govt Debt Won't Fall Below 40% Of GDP Until 2030 - IFS
The U.K.'s public sector debt won't fall back to pre-crisis levels until 2030 at the earliest, even if the government's forecasts for tax revenue turn out to be realistic, the Institute for Fiscal Studies said Wednesday.
In its November Pre-Budget Report, the government said borrowing will soar over the next five years as the recession lowers tax revenue and spending increases.

Britain has foreign reserves of under $61bn dollars (£43.7bn), less than Malaysia or Thailand. The foreign liabilities of the UK banks are $4.4 trillion – or twice annual GDP – according to the Bank of England. The mismatch is perilous.
Britain is not alone in its current distress, although the fall in sterling speaks for itself. The sovereign debt of Russia, Ukraine, Greece, Italy, Belgium, Austria, The Netherlands, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand and Korea is all being tested by the markets. The core of countries deemed safe is shrinking by the day to a half dozen. Sadly, Britain is no longer one of them.

madrid 10:03 GMT January 28, 2009
Albert Einstein

A + B + C = Success if, A = Hard Work, B = Hard Play, C = Keeping your mouth shut.


If most of us are ashamed of shabby clothes and shoddy furniture, let us be more ashamed of shabby ideas and shoddy philosophies.


PAR 10:02 GMT January 28, 2009
Issuing treasuries to buy treasuries could imho be called a kind of " Madoff Strategy " , a gigantic Ponzi scheme .

PAR 09:58 GMT January 28, 2009
CNBC . Most recent FOMC meetings have always hit the dollar.
Quantitave easing probably dollar negative. Buying treasuries sounds good , unless you need to borrow to buy treasuries ?
Issuing treasuries to buy treasuries seems rather surrealistic .

madrid 09:50 GMT January 28, 2009
Citi jet
Why can't these people use Skype? It is free.

may the force be with you all.

Have a great day.


Bilad KaL 09:42 GMT January 28, 2009
Cable to 1.52 in 3 months
I just check the Monthly

EURNZD to 1.8 area in 4 years

Syd 09:42 GMT January 28, 2009
DAVOS:World Bnk Chief Economist:China 1Q GDP May Be Below 7%
China's economic growth may remain below 7% in the current quarter but should be able to rebound back to 7% to 8% for the whole year once the government's massive fiscal stimulus package takes effect, Justin Lin, senior vice president and chief economist of the World Bank, said Wednesday.

China's focus should be on boosting growth at the moment while currency appreciation will be bad for its economy and won't resolve the world's financial crisis, Lin said, speaking at the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland.

Lahore FM 09:41 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

medium sized gold long entered 887.50.stops later.

Lahore FM 09:38 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

european indices mostly up and today can be a good move where world indices make reasonable gains!

Lahore FM 09:32 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

eurusd now 1.3250,good enough for fresh longs imho!

Lahore FM 09:29 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

thanx Kal!

Bilad KaL 09:20 GMT January 28, 2009
EURNZD Crash Soon
Seems almost ready
I think from 1.51 to 1.53
for more then 4 years

Lahore FM 09:20 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

entered small long order at 0.5200 nzdusd just in case it gets there before up.

Bilad KaL 09:11 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

it wants .6060 IMO

AudUSD .72
EURUSD to 1.42

Bilad KaL 09:07 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

USDCHF Seems Want Pairty again to .95 area
if one does not look at the Longer term waves...then u lose

Lahore FM 09:02 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

lowered stops nzdusd 0.5190 to 0.5140.the break higher is imminent though from current 0.5280 area.

PAR 08:41 GMT January 28, 2009
Hallucination ?

Here's another lu-lu: Congress wants to spend $600 million more for the federal government to buy new cars. Uncle Sam already spends $3 billion a year on its fleet of 600,000 vehicles. Congress also wants to spend $7 billion for modernizing federal buildings and facilities. The Smithsonian is targeted to receive $150 million; we love the Smithsonian, too, but this is a job creato

PAR 08:28 GMT January 28, 2009
Geithner Lobbying GS Bad Bank

WASHINGTON -- The new chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was a top lobbyist for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. until last year, and will have to recuse himself from some government duties under new White House ethics rules.

The appointment of Mark Patterson runs into an executive order President Barack Obama signed to limit the ability of officials to move between industry and government. The order, part of a campaign promise to curb the influence business, allows lobbyists to join the administration as long as they don't work on the subjects they tried to influence for a period of two years.

Before Mr. Patterson left Goldman in April, he was vice president for government relations, and was registered to lobby Congress on legislation including energy tax credits and Indian gaming, according to disclosure forms filed with Congress. Mr. Patterson monitored other issues moving through Congress that Goldman never took a position on, including foreclosure-prevention measures and shareholder votes on executive compensation.

Bilad KaL 08:21 GMT January 28, 2009
Cable Longer term
From Longer trm out shorts
Looks Like wants 1.53
takes a little break then north to 1.60

swizerland 08:02 GMT January 28, 2009 Daily Analysis - 28/01/2009
Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD starts better in Asia, gives back gains in New York
• Some whipsaw seen on light stops and thin conditions
• Most eyes focused on FOMC tomorrow

Overnight Preview

• Look for continued sideways action
• Should get quiet ahead of FOMC tomorrow

Looking Ahead to Wednesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
• 2:15pm USD FOMC Statement
• 2:15pm USD Federal Funds Rate
• Day 1 ALL WEF Annual Meetings


The USD is continuing in two-way action as the majors continue to consolidate off their weekly lows; traders note conditions remain thin and the lack of US fundamentals are keeping some sidelined ahead of the FOMC rate announcement tomorrow. After early gains in the Greenback overnight better-than-expected overseas data helped to hold the GBPO and the EURO higher although both pairs looked for new lows in early New York but reversed losses to close better on the day as early intraday shorts covered back as the day wore on. Better US equities prices helped to support EURO as well keeping the rate off the lows into the close. GBP overnight lows went unchallenged in New York trade at 1.3928 but the rate followed EURO lower as EURO made new lows at 1.3118 but spent very little time on the lows rallying back to trade the 1.3180 area for most of the day. High prints in GBP at 1.4245 remained unchallenged in New York making the day a net higher day but off the highs to finish 1.4140 area. USD/JPY had a more rangey day topping out at 90.08 overnight and making lows in New York at 88.42 only to finish about unchanged on the day. Traders note that volumes were thin everywhere and despite better tone of stocks no one wanted to get on the buy side in size today. Technical trade in USD/CHF continued to define near-term direction as the rate failed to extend in either direction today with lows at 1.1312 overnight and highs at 1.1437 with a mid range close; traders say concern over SNB potential intervention is keeping a base under the markets but note that stops are building under the 1.1280 area to the downside and about 1.1480 on the upside making for potential whipsaw. Same story in USD/CAD in thin conditions as well; high prints at 1.2335 during New York with a drop back to unchanged on the day after lows in Asia at 1.2150; large range today mostly due to thin conditions traders say. For the most part today was a point of indecision for the USD; highs failed to attract buyers and lows found no sellers. Stops in all pairs were light and likely residual suggesting short-term time frame traders active with big players sidelined ahead of more news due later this week. Look for the Greenback to continue sideways and consolidate tonight; volumes should remain light and most traders will be focused on FOMC in the afternoon Wednesday.


Resistance 3: 1.4380
Resistance 2: 1.4300
Resistance 1: 1.4250
Latest New York: 1.4176
Support 1: 1.3550
Support 2: 1.3500/10
Support 3: ?


Rate rallies to resistance at the 1.4250 area and falls back to leave a huge wick. Holds lows so far but a reversal could be in the works if the sort-squeeze is over. Light stops seen on the move over the 1.4100 area as late shorts get squeezed. Two-way action continues suggesting that shorts are aggressively adding and longs are trying to find a bottom. Stops and aggressive selling drive the rate to a 23.0 year low last week. Short-squeeze likely in progress after first attempt to rally was sold back but recovers. Overnight economic news seen as positive; rate trading on technical’s now that a pullback from the 1.4250 area is in the works. Signs of the bottom may be showing up as “smart” buyers reported in GBP Wednesday and Thursday night last week. Spillover from EURO likely but modest. Look for two-way action into this bottom. A short-covering rally is increasingly likely now. Late sellers likely in or hurting.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)


Resistance 3: 1.3420
Resistance 2: 1.3380
Resistance 1: 1.3320/30
Latest New York: 1.3206
Support 1: 1.3030
Support 2: 1.2950
Support 3: 1.2880


Rate follows GBP higher; scores highs overnight Europe but fails into early New York. Recovers late in the day suggesting short-term players on the short side covering back. Rally less volatile and the rate holds tech resistance at 1.3325/30 area overnight. Rally all day today suggests a short-squeeze is in the works; fall back argues the squeeze is over. Stops around 1.3030 area likely under the market. More likely in-range but probably cleared on the pullback from highs. Bulls are attempting to find a bottom. 50 bar MA failed now likely to offer resistance and a close above suggests the bottom will be in. Semi-official and sovereign bids and offers seen last week. Technical levels around the 1.3300 area now likely to offer resistance so expect two-way action and consolidation. Aggressive traders can look to buy the next dip.

Data due Wednesday: All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m

Join us for the Afternoon US Dollar Wrap-Up daily at 3:15 pm Central/Chicago time (GMT -6)

Analysis Provided by: - Written by Jason Alan Jankovsky

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

PAR 07:45 GMT January 28, 2009
Bad Bank & GS
Dont listen to what they say, watch what they do .
Yes we can

By Fredreka Schouten, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner picked a former Goldman Sachs lobbyist as a top aide Tuesday, the same day he announced rules aimed at reducing the role of lobbyists in agency decisions.
Mark Patterson will serve as Geithner's chief of staff at Treasury, which oversees the government's $700 billion financial bailout program. Goldman Sachs received $10 billion of that money.

Amman wfakhoury 07:41 GMT January 28, 2009
EUR/JPY movement analysis
Amman wfakhoury 07:32 GMT January 28, 2009
EUR/JPY movement analysis: Reply
EUR/JPY is in uptrend but it may decline till 11740 or below
to fuel it's up direction ,then it may pass through the following levels 11809 11837 11889 11940 11992.

117.80 level is the sure level to pass again if decline.

PAR 07:39 GMT January 28, 2009
Bad Bank = Freddie & Fannie
Why not let GS run the "Bad Bank " since they already run the Treasury ?

Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. may manage the so-called bad bank that the Obama administration is likely to set up as it tries to break the back of the credit crisis, two people familiar with the matter said.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair is pushing to run the operation, which would buy the toxic assets clogging banks’ balance sheets, one of the people said. Bair is arguing that her agency has expertise and could help finance the effort by issuing bonds guaranteed by the FDIC, a second person said. President Barack Obama’s team may announce the outlines of its financial-rescue plan as early as next week, an administration official said.

“It doesn’t make sense to give the authority to anybody else but the FDIC,” said John Douglas, a former general counsel at the agency who now is a partner at Paul, Hastings, Janofsky & Walker, a law firm in Atlanta. “That’s what the FDIC does, it takes bad assets out of banks and manages and sells them.”

Amman wfakhoury 07:32 GMT January 28, 2009
EUR/JPY movement analysis
EUR/JPY is in uptrend but it may decline till 11740 or below
to fuel it's up direction ,then it may pass through the following levels 11809 11837 11889 11940 11992.

Syd 06:27 GMT January 28, 2009
Australian Econ To Contract Sharply - Westpac
Australian economy will contract 0.7% in 2009, unemployment expected to rise to 7.0% by end-2010, according to new forecasts from Westpac. RBA on track to cut official cash rate target to 2.0% by 2Q09, with 100 bp cut likely at Feb. 3 board meeting. Global recovery will be slow, keeping rates very low through 2009 and 2010, it says. Westpac joins growing list of banks forecasting more hard times ahead for economy, RBA has lot of work left to do in lowering cash rate target, now at cyclical low of 4.25%. Says more government efforts to bolster demand needed; direct spending needs to be favored over tax cuts to ensure maximum support to demand

SYDNEY (AFP)--U.S. President Barack Obama telephoned Australia's prime minister on Wednesday and discussed the global economy and the need for effective stimulus measures, a spokeswoman said.

Bilad KaL 06:23 GMT January 28, 2009
GBPAUD from 1.97
I think a Major Buy for a Long time
Usually when heading to Major Buy Point...gets Nasty in Variaton toward it...Like GBPJPY few weeks back
5 WKS 2.2506 1.9740

20 WKS 2.5838 1.9732

50 WKS 2.4303 1.9209

5 Daily 2.1365 2.0728

20 Daily 2.2251 2.0216

50 Daily 2.3962 2.0068

Syd 06:22 GMT January 28, 2009
EUR/JPY Rise Likely Short-Lived;118.50 Cap-Dealers
EUR/JPY, other JPY-crosses traded higher vs overnight levels, but many senior dealers in Japan say that's due to one-time factor therefore gains won't last; "Today's rises in the euro are mostly due to buying from ultra short-term-focused players, who expect that a big Japanese securities firm will buy the euro and other high-yielding currencies," says Hiroshi Maeba, senior dealer at Nomura Securities. EUR/JPY last 117.98, initial cap at 118.50, dealers say. Shinichi Hayashi, chief foreign exchange dealer at Shinkin Central Bank says EUR/JPY capped at 120 because Japanese exporters interested in selling EUR for account settlements.

Syd 06:19 GMT January 28, 2009
EUR/JPY Could Hit 110, GBP/JPY Could Hit 115 N/T
Though GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY gaining vs last week's low levels (GBP/JPY now 127.10 vs 118.89 last week, EUR/JPY now 118.08 vs 112.08), Shinkin Central Bank FX manager Jun Kato says crosses still biased downward. "The current climbs are just players' position adjustments because last week's movements were so rapid and there is no new negative news this week so far." But adds ECB, BOE expected to cut their rates further, plus financial jitters far from over, therefore pairs could resume rapid declines any time. In next few weeks says EUR/JPY could fall to 110, GBP/JPY could drop to 115.

Bilad KaL 05:38 GMT January 28, 2009
DJI in april
DJI longer term
5 WKS 9198.5552 8003.7873

20 WKS 11131.7245 6831.9305

50 WKS 14159.6444 7454.5041

5 Daily 8226.0410 7770.0891

20 Daily 9133.2544 7786.0559

50 Daily 9100.9979 7866.8105

Bilad KaL 05:29 GMT January 28, 2009
I just included the recommendations
to check the the difference between the 20 days High and 5 days...and lows
so that the system pops out the recommendations for 5 days into 20 days...risk reductions

5 Daily 89.9580 88.4424

20 Daily 93.4018 87.1779

50 Daily 96.3965 86.5785

Bilad KaL 05:04 GMT January 28, 2009

5 Daily 1.3143 1.2706

20 Daily 1.3926 1.2672

50 Daily 1.4330 1.2255

Notice 20 days High 4 cast
and 5 days...they are not near each other

while...eurgbp is closer...Means better off shorts
5 Daily 0.9555 0.9281

20 Daily 0.9641 0.8782

50 Daily 0.9856 0.8197

for these posts
if daily 20 days...and 5 days...high or lows
are close to each other..act short or long

Bilad KaL 04:58 GMT January 28, 2009
weekly data

5 WKS 1.2599 1.1810

20 WKS 1.2657 1.0989

50 WKS 1.2961 1.1056

Notice the High 4 Casts...for both
===> small risk lossing money if shorted

5 Daily 1.2657 1.2390

20 Daily 1.2652 1.1793

50 Daily 1.2503 1.1630

Bilad KaL 04:54 GMT January 28, 2009
2 sigma Levels
these are 2 sigma Levels
as u can see that now AUDUSD is trading above it for the
5 days High
weekly data

5 WKS 0.7285 0.6441

20 WKS 0.8350 0.5524

50 WKS 1.0797 0.5905

==== see that low for 5 weeks 4 cast?...Thats why the daily is off.

5 Days 0.6597 0.6429

20 Days 0.7306 0.6292

50 Days 0.7184 0.6206


5 Days 0.9555 0.9281

20 Days 0.9641 0.8782

50 Days 0.9856 0.8197

Syd 04:09 GMT January 28, 2009
RBA Cash Rate To Settle At 2.0% Mid 2009 - TD
The ever-darkening global recession is building the case that Australia's economy will weaken just as much as U.S., leaving RBA with little option beyond sending rates to historic lows, says TD Securities Economist Josh Williamson. "In an opposite effect to the global boom in the prior 4 or 5 years that delivered an almighty inflationary burst to Australia that prompted an amazingly hawkish hiking cycle from the RBA, the deepest global recession in 70 years will 'kneecap' the Australian economy, slash national income and see the RBA deliver what should turn out to be amazingly stimulatory monetary policy." Says RBA will have to play "catch up" at next week's meeting, will cut to 2.0% from 4.25% now by mid 2009.
Outlook for AUD/USD has soured given the grave dangers facing world economy, meaning pair could well test below forecast low of 0.6100, says TD Securities economist Josh Williamson. Instead, pegs a test of 0.5800, led by lower cash rate, slumping demand for commodities. Notes of particular concern is excess business capacity, which will see exporters continue to slash capital spending plans. Household demand will also weaken, leaving RBA with plenty of work to do. "There seems little reason to think that Australia will not have to go close to matching interest rates in the G7 countries when arguably the Australian economy has substantial downside risks from the terms of trade collapse, the global recession and what increasingly looks like a staggeringly large amount of excess capacity." AUD/USD last at 0.6652

Syd 02:28 GMT January 28, 2009
JPY supported by speculators buying back safe-haven currency after Nikkei falls 1.5%, touches new intraday low, says senior FX dealer at major Japan trust bank. USD/JPY at 89.06 off earlier high of 89.48; EUR/JPY at 117.82 vs 118.40. Nikkei now paring losses, last down 0.4%.

Australia recorded its first fall in inflation in two years in the fourth quarter of 2008, paving the way for a further aggressive cut in official interest rates at the Reserve Bank of Australia's first policy meeting for 2009 next week. Tumbling fuel and food prices helped to produce a 0.3% fall in the consumer price index through the fourth quarter, the biggest quarterly fall since September 1997, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. Economists expected of a fall of 0.4%, In annual terms, inflation rose by 3.7% in the fourth quarter, well down from a pace of 5.0% in the third quarter, the ABS said. Rapidly cooling inflation, crumbling Asian economic growth, and rising concerns that the economy is contracting gives the RBA a green light to cut rates next week, economists said.
"The RBA now has no excuse," said Craig James, chief economist at Commonwealth Securities. Financial markets expect further one percentage point to be sliced off the RBA's official cash rate target after the central bank's policy making board meets on Tuesday. If rates are cut 100 basis points, this would take the official cash rate target to 3.25%, its lowest level since the mid-1960s. And economists expect the RBA will have more work to do in March as the economic environment gets worse. Weak data and falling demand is also likely to spur the government to introduce a second wave of economic stimulus. Treasurer Wayne Swan has already alluded to bringing forward income tax cuts as a means to lift activity and stem job losses. Also Wednesday, a leading index of economic activity in November added to mounting evidence that the economy has slipped into, or is about to enter recession, its first since the early 1990s. Westpac Banking Corp. and Melbourne University's Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research's leading index of activity dropped at an annualized rate of 2.2% in November. October's result was also revised down to a negative.
The data is a "useful signal" that the Australian economy is experiencing recession, Westpac's Chief Economist Bill Evans said. These are the first negative reads for growth since May 2001, he added."As an early indicator of (previous) recessions, we saw the growth rate in the Leading Index turn negative around a year before it was possible to conclude that a recession had occurred," Evans said.
National Australia Bank said Tuesday it expects the economy will experience a modest contraction in 2009, lifting unemployment up toward 7% by the end of the year.
The Australian dollar fell after the CPI data as markets adjusted up a notch the likely size of next week's interest rate cut. At 0150 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$0.6635, down from US$0.6660 before the data.
The underlying rate demonstrates that deflation is not now a serious risk in the Australian economy and in our view is unlikely to be one in the future, Edwards said.

Syd 01:45 GMT January 28, 2009
Australia's Swan: CPI Reflects Further Impact Of Global Woes
Australian is on track for significant period of disinflation, mainly due to weak domestic demand and inability of businesses to pass on price pressures, says ANZ economist Riki Polygenis. "From a monetary policy perspective, the better than expected inflation results may force the RBA to bring down the inflation forecast for 2009 and could well see core inflation returning to the band a little earlier than expected." Expects 75bp rate cut next week

Australia's Swan: Expects To See Global Growth Revised Down
Australia's Swan: More Room To Move On Rates, Fiscal Policy
Australia's Swan: Govt Emphasis On Supporting Growth, Jobs
Australia's Swan: Held Meetings Last Week With PM, RBA Gov
Australia's Swan: Global Data Has Worsened In Recent Months

Syd 01:19 GMT January 28, 2009
'Ruddbank will fund today's Skases'
THE Rudd Government is about to start lending money to the next Christopher Skase or Alan Bond, the Coalition says.

Labor's $2 bn bailout of the commercial property sector would lead to disastrous losses similar to those experienced through WA Inc and the failure of Victoria's state bank, Opposition finance spokesman Joe Hockey said.
In the 1980s Australian governments lost billions of dollars as a result of bad loans and corporate collapses. "It should not be the Government that starts lending money to the next Christopher Skase or Alan Bond as is being suggested here,'' Mr Hockey told Fairfax Radio.
"Mark my words: this is going to be Tricontinental, Western Australia Inc, State Bank of Victoria all over again.'' He said it was bad policy for the Commonwealth to lend money to commercial property developers. The Government will invest $2bn of taxpayers' money, matched by the big banks, to meet any shortage of credit caused by foreign lenders exiting the Australian market due to the global financial crisis. "We believe it is bad policy, the Reserve Bank thinks it's bad policy (and) David Murray, the head of the Future Fund, a very respected banker, said yesterday it is bad policy,'' Mr Hockey said. "There is no precedent in the world for this.'' Australia's banks were expected to post a $15bn profit this year and they should expand borrowings to developers.
"So that they are the ones that determine whether a property development is a good credible development or another Christopher Skase or Alan Bond.''
The "Ruddbank'' was a "big mistake'', Mr Hockey said.

Steven Spielberg has casts Tintin Rudd misses out !!
British actor Jamie Bell lead in Tintin, ignoring lookalike Kevin Rudd

Syd 01:10 GMT January 28, 2009
Inflation hits 11-year low RBA Has Green Light To Cut As CPI Falls-
Update Australia's consumer prices retreated by the most in more than 11 years as the economy stalled and fuel prices tumbled, giving the Reserve Bank more room to cut official interest rates.The December quarter CPI figures are the weakest since the September quarter of 1997.

The quarterly inflation rate dropped by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year from an increase of 1.2% in the third quarter, according to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Analysts expected the quarterly figures to contract minus-0.4%.

RBA set to cut rates next week by 100 bps as inflation is clearly falling rapidly and economic growth is in the doldrums, says Stephen Halmarick, chief economist at Citigroup. Says RBA has green light to act aggressively at its first policy meeting for 2009, likely to take rate down to 3.25% from 4.25% now. Inflation fell 0.3% in 4Q08 vs 3Q08, the first drop in two years.

Skilled job vacancies slump
Skilled job vacancies fell 0.1% in January from the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis, and were 44.8% lower than a year earlier, the employment department said on Wednesday.

Backing expectations of a rise in unemployment amid a global economic downturn, the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations skilled vacancies index, which is based on the number of skilled vacancy advertisements in major newspapers, fell 7.7% in January to 56.1 in trend terms and was 43.4% lower than a year earlier.

All states and territories experienced decreases in skilled vacancies in January, the largest drop being 10.4% in NSW.

Similarly, all states and territories suffered declines in the year to January, again led by NSW with a fall of 57.3%.

Syd 00:54 GMT January 28, 2009
AUSTRALIA Q4 CPI Q/Q: -0.3% V -0.4%E; YOY: 3.7% V 3.6%E - Prior Q/Q CPI was 1.2% and Y/Y was 5.0% - RBA Trimmed Mean Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.8%e, Y/Y: 4.2% v 4.4%

Syd 00:44 GMT January 28, 2009
fll jf hi there seems a bit slow today looks like markets are looking ahead to the CB meetings this week and next .

Syd 00:42 GMT January 28, 2009

Australia 4Q CPI -0.3% On Qtr; Consensus -0.4%
Australia 4Q CPI +3.7% On Yr; Consensus +3.6%
Australian 4Q CPI falls 0.3% in 4Q vs 3Q as tumbling fuel and food prices more than offset impact of rising import prices driven by weaker Australian dollar. Result helps pave way for further RBA rate cuts next week amid mounting evidence economy has slipped into recession. Markets little moved by CPI data as a 0.4% fall in inflation had been forecast

Turmoil still sweeping across world's economies and financial markets is hitting turnover in AUD foreign exchange instruments hard, slumping in six months to October, according to survey by Australian Foreign Exchange Committee. Declining volumes will hardly be a surprise, but anecdotal talk from traders since October of even tighter liquidity doesn't bode well for months ahead. Total average daily turnover in Australian FX market fell to US$145.2 billion in October, 11% lower from April and 7% lower vs October 2007. Average daily turnover in OTC FX instruments dropped 10% to US$141.2B, 5% lower on year. Turnover in OTC options fell 10% in six months to October, 24% from year earlier. Swap volumes slumped 40% in the six months and 43% year earlier.

BERLIN -- Germany's Finance Ministry is weighing the nationalization of Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, the Munich bank whose troubles prompted Germany to bail out its entire banking sector last year. No decision has been made, according to a senior German official. But Finance Minister Peer Steinbruck is considering ways to take control of Hypo as a prelude to radically scaling down its operations, this person said. The government could even confiscate shareholders' stakes in the bank, under one option being considered. Germany's constitution allows the government to pass laws confiscating private property to uphold the public interest.
Since September, the government has arranged 50 billion euros ($65.9 billion) of mostly state-backed loans for Hypo and guaranteed another 42 billion euros of Hypo's debts. But Hypo is widely expected to need billions more euros in additional capital this spring to cover its continuing losses.

US SW 00:37 GMT January 28, 2009
Entry: 13225 Target: 13114 Stop: 13479

no comment

fll jf 00:15 GMT January 28, 2009
Trade Ideas

FM take a break you deserve it.

SYD you got any quotes from some of the tokyo dealers today?

fll jf 00:10 GMT January 28, 2009
Economic tragedy

LA not sure we need that kind of link.


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