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Forex Forum Archive for 01/30/2009

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Syd 23:31 GMT January 30, 2009
Commodity road to 2001?
Reply   
ChartView

Gen dk 21:07 GMT January 30, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 21:02 GMT January 30, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Click for Complete Chart Points

30-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.2793

89.85

1.1625

1.4455

1.2293

High

1.2950

90.14

1.1659

1.4498

1.2419

Low

1.2778

89.17

1.1524

1.4188

1.2215

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3054

89.58

1.1385

1.3984

1.2234

10 day

1.3029

89.53

1.1378

1.3905

1.2378

20 day

1.3216

90.22

1.1190

1.4290

1.2251

50 day

1.3358

91.23

1.1278

1.4579

1.2293

100 day

1.3381

96.02

1.1318

1.5600

1.1931

200 day

1.4368

101.37

1.0896

1.7442

1.1092

dc CB 20:44 GMT January 30, 2009
Bad Bank

when Paulson was running the game, he'd never have let the "failure" of talks out on a friday afternoon. he'd have played the hope of a weekend deal to wound some shorts and have the market end flat or up on the day.

makes you wonder about these new guys.

Hillegom Purk 19:16 GMT January 30, 2009
eur/usd and eur/gbp
Reply   
Well the 12755 was missed by 22 pips, gettng worse every day that Purk. How nice that the 8868 has been visted today again in eur/gbp. There where some snuiters here calling for a short in the eur/gbp, good call.

aud/usd: the 75 is not out of the way yet. But if so than we might see this 55 thingy sooner or later. Longing on bounces not that easy so patience for real rallies.

PAR 18:44 GMT January 30, 2009
Bad Bank
Reply   
If you can not convince them , confuse them . A bankers behaving badly motto.

dc CB 18:41 GMT January 30, 2009
bad bank

Follow Up Details: CNBC reports that 'bad bank; idea has officially been put on hold indefinitely

As mentioned at 13:27, CNBC reports that the 'bad bank' idea has officially put on hold because the govt and execs can't figure out exactly how to make it work. Govt has been having meetings with Sr execs at these firms on how to price the stuff that would be sold to the aggregater bank, and says they are more confused now then ever before. As of right now there is no meeting planned over the weekend to figure out how to pull this off. Pricing is what is at issue. If Wall St marks it to their model at 50 cents on the dollar and then they sell it, the market says its 22 cents on the dollar and the govt buys it at 22 cents, the most of the banks will take major losses. If the govt buys it at 50 cents on the dollar then the tax payers will be taking it on the chin. There are other alternatives being discussed right now.
(briefing.com)

dc CB 18:38 GMT January 30, 2009
bad bank
Reply   
any afternoon equity short covering is probably not going to happen.
___________________________________
13:27 CNBC commentator says "bad bank" solution has been put on hold according to sources. (briefing.com)

PAR 18:04 GMT January 30, 2009
Banks
Reply   
Stop Rearranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic and Nationalize the censored Banks

By Joshua Holland, AlterNet. Posted January 30, 2009.


The painful but unavoidable reality of the financial crisis is that every dollar spent trying to prop up a failing bank is just good money thrown after bad; a taxpayer rip-off, short and sweet.

But in Washington, many are trying to avoid that fact nonetheless. Economist Paul Krugman wrote that the political establishment has "become devotees of a new kind of voodoo [economics]: the belief that by performing elaborate financial rituals we can keep dead banks walking." Goldman Sachs' economists estimate that those rituals might cost up to $4 trillion to perform.

http://www.alternet.org/workplace/123539/stop_rearranging_deck_chairs_on_ the_titanic_and_nationalize_the_censored_banks/

GENEVA DS 18:03 GMT January 30, 2009
SHORTING USDCHF and USDJPY
Reply   
PONZI
Entry: JPY-CHF Target: LONG Stop:

Have the feeling that shorts in USDJPY and USDCHF and their respective crosses could be the trade of the next few weeks... looks like the PONZI scheme in the States is collapsing, and as well here in EURO Land... only escape is CHF here and JPY globally... EURCHF will tank to 1.3000 in early march and EURJPY to sub 90.00 same period... stops are lined up in big swiss banks... good weekend

Lahore FM 17:25 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

eurjpy ready for move past 116.00.

Lahore FM 17:22 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

long audjpy at 57.18 after earlier getting stopped.stops at 56.00.

ottawa mjw 17:08 GMT January 30, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Dr.Q , would you have any levels or opinions, to share on usd/chf at this time, thank you for replying.

hong kong seek 16:50 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

ths a lot FM...always appreciate yr views ..

Lahore FM 16:46 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/29/2009 14:00:40 FM Lahore 22
entred 2nd long gold looking for 1000 over a month.
--
seek the above is for you.

hong kong seek 16:34 GMT January 30, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Dr.Q--could u comment on gold ? it's flying high...many good trades to u

Lahore FM 16:31 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/29/2009 14:43:08 FM Lahore 19
long gbpusd 1.4247,stops 1.4120.
--
half out at 1.4400.stops to 1.4150 for rest.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:29 GMT January 30, 2009
QIndex Trading System

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : 1.4424 is about the right settling price for the end of this month.

USA BAY 16:28 GMT January 30, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Hong Kong Qindex,

Thanks Dr Q, have a great weekend.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:27 GMT January 30, 2009
QIndex Trading System

USA BAY 16:23 GMT - 0.8866 is a very significant level in my system. We have to keep an eye on it next week.

USA BAY 16:23 GMT January 30, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Hong Kong Qindex,

Dr Q, is there more downside for eur/gbp? Tia

Hong Kong Qindex 16:22 GMT January 30, 2009
QIndex Trading System

EUR/GBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/GBP : The fair settling price in the New York closing is 0.8866.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:19 GMT January 30, 2009
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The market is likely to settle between 1.2745 - 1.2809 in the New York closing.

Gen dk 16:11 GMT January 30, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Amman wfakhoury 16:00 GMT January 30, 2009
gbp.usd movement analysis
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 09:52 GMT January 30, 2009
GBP/USD movement analysis result: Reply
Amman wfakhoury 06:17 GMT January 30, 2009
GBP.USD movement analysis: Reply
consilidates now btween levels 14200-14255 .
breaks level 14275 will confirm its up direction twd 14315 then 14400.
breaks level 14170 will confirm its down direction twd 14135 then 14035.
--------------
movement will be in both direction , that means if breaks up level 14315 it may return till 14275 level again or may breaks
the down level 14170 , and vice versa.

--------
well done the first part it broke level 14275 and 14315 till around 14350 then declined again till 14275

======
the second part after touching 14400 is to decline again 14275

Bilad KaL 15:23 GMT January 30, 2009
Oil Very south now
Reply   
New low of 22 USO is on way..I think that means 32 for spot

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:05 GMT January 30, 2009
Protectionism chill
Reply   
Brazil – Last week, the Ministry of Industry and Commerce said it will require import licenses for nearly all goods entering Latin America's largest market. The government said such licenses will better account for the quantity of goods entering the country. Yet the new policy appeared to create a nontariff barrier aimed at protecting Brazilian industry, which recently began to feel the effects of the global recession. However, the Brazilian government modified its proposed new import rules Wednesday after critics attacked the measures as protectionist.

------ vs.------

U.S. - The stimulus bill passed by the House contains a provision that would mostly bar foreign steel and iron from the infrastructure projects laid out by the $819 billion economic package. A Senate version, yet to be acted upon, goes further, requiring, with few exceptions, that all stimulus-funded projects use only American-made equipment and goods.

It seems the "Buy American" provisions enacted during the Great Depression are in play. Let’s see how long before the rest of the duckies make a similar leap.

eu kaprikorn 14:55 GMT January 30, 2009
tsy
Reply   
tnx for the update BOBL!

GVI Forex john 14:55 GMT January 30, 2009
How to Post a Chart
Reply   
In answer to some questions...
How to post a forum chart

San Diego bobl 14:53 GMT January 30, 2009
treasuries
Reply   
Net inflows into treasuries are purchased in USD terms....the euro is trading at close to lows of the year; we are also at short term resistance. Market is in motion right now with no declared winner vs. USD. We have end of month action to contend with, which can distort the trade for institutional balance books. Tough call right now... I personally in treading lightly, however doing so on the short side of euro and eur/jpy. Treasuries backing off, spoos confused, crude slightly up and grains, softs down. Not an easy picture here, so this is one of those days it seems wiser to play light and see what develops. There's some good company short foreigns right now, but things are not rock solid today by any means. Some GVI players I know hold some healthy gains, and have room for patience.

good luck

eu kaprikorn 14:52 GMT January 30, 2009
tape
Reply   
looking at the eurusd quote...
not used to tape reading art but seems to me there is soem selling ahead of 1.29 but the bids is strong so once the cap is off it will burst up.. just observation..

eu kaprikorn 14:34 GMT January 30, 2009
USTY - USD
Reply   
bobl ...
hello - just wondered if program buying is hit in TSYs - this isn't USD strength implying?
I'm currently long EURUSD from 1.2854

lkwd jj 14:32 GMT January 30, 2009
end
Reply   
last trading day on both weekly and monthly charts.fwiw

Houston ET 14:29 GMT January 30, 2009
AUD

AUDUSD: Next major downside target: 0.6010

San Diego bobl 14:24 GMT January 30, 2009
correction
Reply   
Weakening USD, not strengthening... misprint, sorry.

gl/gt

San Diego bobl 14:19 GMT January 30, 2009
treasuries
Reply   
Trade desk reports large buy programs in US treasuries just hit and that is supporting USD.... must watch shorts with this type of action.

gl/gt

San Diego bobl 14:07 GMT January 30, 2009
gbp/usd
Reply   
GBP/USD appears flat and non-directional thus far today... it's a "no trade" imho. Better looks in shorts in eur/usd and eur/jpy imho.

gl/gt

Houston ET 13:59 GMT January 30, 2009
GBP/AUD Long

Mysore: Good observation!

eu kaprikorn 13:58 GMT January 30, 2009
GDP news
Reply   
well not much of a turnaround in eurusd after the GDP fact or we have to wait for the NYSE open in 30 min?
any suggestions?

Houston ET 13:48 GMT January 30, 2009
AUD

0330 GMT Tue actually - still some ways away. Cannot see much of a turn coming in AUD until later

Houston ET 13:42 GMT January 30, 2009
AUD
Reply   
AUD's fall has been pretty straight line action - no retraces - and RBA decision on rates is still far away - not until 0400 GMT Tuesday!

Mysore Forexveda 13:19 GMT January 30, 2009
GBP/AUD Long
Reply   
Buy
Entry: 2.2000 Target: 2.4000 Stop: 2.1600

Those who belive that AUD is headed towards 0.55 ( I too believe strongly) can go long GBP/AUD When AUD falls 1000 pips, GBP/AUD may go up by 2000 to 3000 pips no matter where GBP goes. MY GBP/JPY longs are already up more than 800 pips and I am expecting another 2200 pips by March end (repatriation? who cares)

Amsterdam Purk 13:02 GMT January 30, 2009
!!

Amsterdam Bobsy 12:31 GMT January 30, 2009

It was when i drove 266 km an hour on the A4 to Amsterdam with the R8...

Gen dk 12:57 GMT January 30, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Jay 12:46 GMT January 30, 2009
GVI Forex Special
Reply   
SPECIAL OFFER
In an effort to help our members navigate these treacherous forex waters, we are offering a new year GVI Forex special. This offer is open to all Global-View members (except current subscribers).

If interested, send me an EMAIL for more information on this offer.

Toronto tn 12:39 GMT January 30, 2009
AUDUSD

Maribor, very nicely done, mate. Very impressive.

Amsterdam Bobsy 12:31 GMT January 30, 2009
!!
Reply   
Amsterdam Purk 12:21 GMT January 30, 2009
Purkovski....where did you see that?...in a Amsterdam coffee shop or while in an Amsterdam supermarket?....Its those " withdrawal " symptoms son..they will make you go blind...

Syd 12:27 GMT January 30, 2009
fx
Reply   
Amsterdam Purk 12:24 its all the same - yes it is getting up there , plenty of time to sleep over the weekend :-))

Amsterdam Purk 12:24 GMT January 30, 2009
fx

SYDDERS: whereever the wind blows the longs to, any target is a target. Isnt it so that it is midnight already in your country?

Syd 12:23 GMT January 30, 2009
fx
Reply   
Amsterdam Purk yes I have that too :-)) Whats you target for the aud tks

Amsterdam Purk 12:21 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

Only 50 from the low to go to 12755. Dont know what it is but saw it...

On aud/usd: patience for nice longs.

eu kaprikorn 12:20 GMT January 30, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   
interesting gbpusd hourly is bid and in uptrend ..
eurusd however is pushed down by the eurgbp drop while the eurjpy is also bid...
is it smtg normal or its a trick? US GDP might be the driving force to sell the eurusd before the number is out and then to reverse the boat and sink the little boatmen
--- however it is an enigma for me if this is valid scenario or too much thinking right now..

Lahore FM 12:16 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/30/2009 08:17:55 FM Lahore 4
long eurusd 1.2906,stops at 1.2820.
==
stopped at 1.2820 for minus 86.
--
long afresh 1.2817,stops at a later time.

Syd 12:15 GMT January 30, 2009
EURONOMICS: Deflation Risks Increase, ECB Cut Looms
Reply   
The annual rate of inflation in the 16 countries that use the euro fell to its lowest level in almost a decade in January, making a period of deflation appear more likely than the European Central Bank has acknowledged.
We now think there is a good chance of a bout of deflation in the euro zone later this year," said Jonathan Loynes, an economist at Capital Economics. "We don't have the breakdown yet but it is likely that, alongside negative food and energy effects, core inflation eased in response to the downturn in demand in the economy."
The ECB cut its key interest rate for the fourth time in as many months in January, but has indicated it won't cut again in February. However, the rapid decline in the inflation rate strengthens the argument for a rate cut in March.

Lahore FM 12:15 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

long eurgbp 0.8957.stops 0.8850.looking for 0.9500.

Syd 11:54 GMT January 30, 2009
Ireland outlook cut to Negative from Stable at Moody's
Reply   
Change in outlook reflects Moody's view that the current economic crisis is likely to significantly affect Ireland''s economic strength and government financial strength for the years to come -- both in absolute terms and relative to the country''s rating peers.

Syd 11:48 GMT January 30, 2009
(UK) S&P
Reply   
(UK) S&P says UK banking bill could impact analysis of Structured Finance ratings

GVI Forex john 11:21 GMT January 30, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Click for Complete Chart Points

29-Jan-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.2979

89.86

1.1508

1.4332

1.2218

High

1.3180

90.65

1.1580

1.4411

1.2224

Low

1.2935

89.48

1.1407

1.4127

1.2134

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.3091

89.38

1.1383

1.3848

1.2245

10 day

1.3075

89.60

1.1336

1.3951

1.2398

20 day

1.3269

90.34

1.1145

1.4300

1.2243

50 day

1.3354

91.36

1.1291

1.4590

1.2302

100 day

1.3392

96.19

1.1316

1.5632

1.1916

200 day

1.4382

101.45

1.0889

1.7469

1.1082

Syd 11:11 GMT January 30, 2009
..
Reply   
Mtl JP 11:00 GMT Obama has been left a heap of shite on the White house door step to clean away, dont envy him the task ( Elephant shite)
Aussie doesnt like it up there at the moment does it !!

Mtl JP 11:00 GMT January 30, 2009
Europe

SYD that is about in line. the Romer-Bernstein report predicts an average unemployment rate of 7.3 percent over the next three years. (NYT) in the US.
--
I am, frankly, surprised that Paul "more moRE MORE" Krugman is not advocating the Townsend Plan (govt donations to Jos 6paks of money whose validity expires if not spent within 30 days). maybe just a matter of him comming up with some original name for the scheme so that he can claim and add it to his "fame".

eu kaprikorn 10:46 GMT January 30, 2009
eurusd & gbpusd
Reply   
could it be that along the doom and gloom we see friday reversal e.g usd selling > eur & gbp buying?

however EURGBP arbitraging is also influencing the moves..

GVI Forex john 10:41 GMT January 30, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

EZ Flash HICP...



Syd 10:25 GMT January 30, 2009
Europe
Reply   
TOULOUSE, France (AFP)--Upcoming French unemployment figures will be bad, the employment minister warned Friday.
"We are going into a period of serious crisis, you can see that from the employment figures. We're going to have bad figures," Laurent Wauquiez told reporters during a trip to Toulouse in the southwest.
The figures were due to have been published Thursday but a strike, called in protest at plans to transfer hundreds of workers from the statistics service in Paris to a provincial city, has forced a delay until Monday, Wauquiez said.
The last available figures showed that France's jobless numbers jumped 3.2% in November compared with October and were up 8.5% year-on-year, with just over 2 million out of work. More than 64,000 people joined the ranks of those seeking work, the data showed

Syd 10:22 GMT January 30, 2009
DJ MARKET TALK: AUD, NZD Feel The Pain
Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD are feeling the pain Friday with the former printing a fresh 2009 low of 0.6407 and the latter a 6-year low of 0.5078. Barclays Capital looks for more downside for both, saying it thinks the market has not adequately priced in the downside risks to global growth. BarCap also sees potential for historically low valuation levels for AUD and NZD as investors continue to shun risky assets.

Gen dk 10:06 GMT January 30, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 10:01 GMT January 30, 2009
euro
Reply   
Euro-Zone Inflation Rate Falls To Near-Decade Low
Euro-Zone Dec Jobless Rate Was Seen At 7.9%
Euro-Zone Dec Jobless Rate 8.0% Vs 7.9% In Nov
Euro-Zone CPI Last As Low In July 1999
Euro-Zone Jan CPI Forecast At +1.4%
Euro-Zone Jan CPI Estimate +1.1% Vs Dec +1.6%

Amman wfakhoury 09:52 GMT January 30, 2009
GBP/USD movement analysis result
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 06:17 GMT January 30, 2009
GBP.USD movement analysis: Reply
consilidates now btween levels 14200-14255 .
breaks level 14275 will confirm its up direction twd 14315 then 14400.
breaks level 14170 will confirm its down direction twd 14135 then 14035.
--------------
movement will be in both direction , that means if breaks up level 14315 it may return till 14275 level again or may breaks
the down level 14170 , and vice versa.

--------
well done the first part it broke level 14275 and 14315 till around 14350 then declined again till 14275

Maribor 09:48 GMT January 30, 2009
AUDUSD

AUD 0,645 done and exceeded...GBPAUD run contrary to expectations and uncertainity on that pair remains: 1,97 or 2,48(or anything between) is possible...

Bilad KaL 09:31 GMT January 30, 2009
DJI

GLD Gold
a sell soon

90.28 80.57
92.03 78.82
95.52 75.33

Bilad KaL 09:16 GMT January 30, 2009
DJI
Reply   
selling

8,617.08
8,751.48
9,020.29


7,735.13
7,600.72
7,331.91

EURUSD
Buys
1.3546 1.2706
1.3719 1.2533
1.4065 1.2187

Syd 09:16 GMT January 30, 2009
Euro
Reply   
ECB Liikanen: Cutting Rates To Zero Not Only Solution

Russian Central Bank's Ignatyev: Will not allow ruble to fall beyond 41 to the basket; Will intervene or use interest rates

Syd 09:09 GMT January 30, 2009
JPY Support Seen Until Fiscal Year-End
Reply   
Broad volatility and higher risk aversion explain some of the JPY's continued strength. But, says Barclays Capital, hedging operations by Japanese exporters, demand from Japanese importers who hedged assuming stronger trade flows, and repatriation by institutional investors are likely to lead to further JPY gains ahead of fiscal year-end in March.

geneva ds 09:00 GMT January 30, 2009
too many usd bulls
Reply   
usdchf
Entry: 11550 Target: 0.9000 Stop: 11700

feel personally that today too many people feel confident about usd rise. guys, we are just hours away from the abandon of usd strong dollar policy

Amsterdam Purk 08:58 GMT January 30, 2009
AUD/$

aud usd: me buying all the way down than. I like doom and gloom, good to trade on. Lets see...

Lahore FM 08:56 GMT January 30, 2009
aud

it can be 300 pips higher too.gold will sqeeze short aud!imho!!

Syd 08:51 GMT January 30, 2009
aud
Reply   
HK [email protected] 08:47 a well cooked buy :-))

HK [email protected] 08:47 GMT January 30, 2009
AUD/$
Reply   


Regarding all that black propaganda around the Aussie$, one should not be caught by surprise if it may dive 300pips or more during this Friday trading, to a price where it will become a well roasted dressed chicken.

Syd 08:32 GMT January 30, 2009
AUD/NZD
Reply   
AUD/NZD should be headed back to its 1.2000 low of Jan. 14, says Calyon. The bank notes that although the NZD is still reeling from the RBNZ's surprise 150bp rate cut earlier this week, the AUD is now suffering from fears the RBA will cut rates by more than 50bp at its meeting next Tuesday. Given that the rate differential is strongly correlated with the exchange rate, the narrowing in the current 175bp yield gap in favor of the AUD should push the AUD lower across the board. The AUD/NZD is now at 1.2601.

Lahore FM 08:32 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/28/2009 09:41:41 FM Lahore 42
medium sized gold long entered 887.50.stops later.
--
half out at 919 now.stops to 850 on rest.target 1000.

Jerusalem ML 08:31 GMT January 30, 2009
Lahore..Hi
Reply   
EUR...
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hi Lahore

we seem to be in a tug of war here...sorry!
May the best one win ...good luck to you...

Im starting to feel really bullish on $, espc against Eur.

Be well

Syd 08:19 GMT January 30, 2009
The dollar will continue to attract support. Dollar Bulls Should Remain Confident
Reply   
U.S. data may still be indicating an economic deterioration and worries about the efficacy of official measures to stop the rot may remain paramount.
Nevertheless, as events this week have shown, the U.S. is still at the forefront of international efforts to stop the global economy from sinking and falling risk appetite will continue to play in the dollar's favor.
As Geoffrey Yu, currency strategist at UBS in London, said: "If the U.S. begins to show signs of a recovery ahead of the rest of G3 or G10, it would provide a greater incentive for investors to keep or transfer risk back to the U.S."

Lahore FM 08:17 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

long eurusd 1.2906,stops at 1.2820.

Jerusalem ML 07:40 GMT January 30, 2009
its a sell...
Reply   
EUR
Entry: Target: 1.25 Stop:

Hi All

Follow through from earlier posts.
Im still overwhelmingly positive on the dollar , because of risk aversion and my bet for Dow sub 8k somewhere in Feb.
In fact i believe the Dow has 60% chance of new lows this winter/fall. Tgt 6900 in 2009 before recovering.
EUR tgt in feb - 1.25
Sterling - 1.37
Usd/cad could be the big winner and see 1.33 later in the yr
GT

Amman wfakhoury 07:20 GMT January 30, 2009
eur.usd
Reply   
Amsterdam Purk 07:11 GMT January 30, 2009
=======
movement will be in both direction 12755 may not seen
12850 or below may be done.

Amsterdam Purk 07:11 GMT January 30, 2009
eur/usd
Reply   
G'day. I have 12755 in sight when i got up this mo. Lets see if it does.

Syd 06:28 GMT January 30, 2009
Australia RBA Has More Cuts In Store To Ease Downturn
Reply   
The RBA's cuts will mostly reflect a rapidly dimming global economic outlook, and deepening fears of recession at home, with the magnitude of the global downturn now being more fully realized.

Rory Robertson, interest rates strategist at Macquarie Bank said that few onlookers were able to appreciate the magnitude of the collapse in global confidence through the fourth quarter.

"Most people didn't hear the penny drop," he said. The RBA could continue cutting rates beyond February and 2.0% is a possible target...Nobody knows how long this will last," he said.

"The global recession is deepening by the day," said Joshua Williamson, senior strategist at TD Securities who thinks there is a strong chance the RBA will need to cut to less than 2.0% this year.
"There seems little reason to think that Australia will not have to go close to matching interest rates in the G7 countries when arguably the Australian economy has substantial downside risks from the trade collapse, the global recession," he said.

The dimming outlook for the Australian economy comes amid news Friday that private sector credit growth eased to its slowest pace in 15 years in December.
Also Friday, JPMorgan further downgraded its forecasts for Australian economic growth in 2009 to a contraction of 0.5%, down from a previous forecast of minus 0.2%.

The size of Australia's downturn largely reflects a likely 1.6% contraction in the global economy this year, said Stephen Walters, chief economist at JPMorgan.

"Deteriorating conditions offshore and the worsening credit crunch point to a deeper Australian recession than previously forecast," he added.

Scott Haslem, chief economist at UBS is similarly downbeat and expects the RBA to continue slashing rates in the first half of 2009, lowering the cash rate to 2.0%.
DJ

Amman wfakhoury 06:17 GMT January 30, 2009
GBP.USD movement analysis
Reply   
consilidates now btween levels 14200-14255 .
breaks level 14275 will confirm its up direction twd 14315 then 14400.
breaks level 14170 will confirm its down direction twd 14135 then 14035.
--------------
movement will be in both direction , that means if breaks up level 14315 it may return till 14275 level again or may breaks
the down level 14170 , and vice versa.

Syd 06:15 GMT January 30, 2009
AUD
Reply   
HK [email protected] 06:10 I dont expect to see it today :-)) but I do feel the data from here on wont be helpful to the Aud looking towards the middle to the end of the month - the unemployment data will be one of the critical hurdles it will need to overcome for any meaningful bounce GT

HK [email protected] 06:10 GMT January 30, 2009
AUS/$
Reply   
Syd 05:42 GMT January 30, 2009

To see a 5 in front of the AUS, may not be that easy for the time(though I computed around 47 retest low), and one has to explore carefully the chart around 60.

Though the bad news out of Australia, describe a situation as unemployed angry people, hanging hungry in the streets.

Maybe things in the system are not all too bad, as in other places.

Syd 06:04 GMT January 30, 2009
'Bad Bank' Exclusive
Reply   
A government-run bad bank is likely weeks away, reports CNBC's Charlie Gasparino.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=101715418
9&play=1

Amman wfakhoury 05:53 GMT January 30, 2009
GBP.USD movement analysis
Reply   
consilidates now btween levels 14200-14255 .
breaks level 14275 will confirm its up direction twd 14315 then 14400.
breaks level 14170 will confirm its down direction twd 14135 then 14035.

Syd 05:42 GMT January 30, 2009
aud
Reply   
HK [email protected] 05:39 Yes I agree, looking for something with a five infront of it , think we are getting close to seeing a low for the time being

HK [email protected] 05:39 GMT January 30, 2009
AUD/$
Reply   
Syd 04:41 GMT January 30, 2009

That retest of the 60.10 will be easy, after a downside breach of the flag on the Daily-chart.

The way I see it, it will easily happen, maybe within next two days.

Syd 05:17 GMT January 30, 2009
RBA To Dish Up Another Big Cut Tuesday - Poll
Reply   
PREVIEW: RBA expected to deliver further 100 bp rate cut after Tuesday's policy board meeting, lowering official cash rate target to 3.25%, its lowest level since the mid-1960, according to survey of 19 economists Friday. Cut will add to the 300 bps in cuts since September and reflect deepening fears about global economy, increased probability of recession in Australia in 2009. Economists expect RBA will not stop there, lowering cash rate further 75 bps by midyear. But economists' are lagging behind pricing in markets, with implied yields on the May interbank futures market breaking below 2.0% Friday.

Rio Tinto: Has Significant Iron Ore Stockpiles At Ports

Syd 04:41 GMT January 30, 2009
Expect AUD/USD Long-Term Floor 0.55-0.60 - SCB
Reply   
AUD losses in 2008, 2009 have already exceeded historic slides of 1997, 2001 with further downside likely, Standard Chartered chief currency strategist Callum Henderson says; adds most but not all of cyclical weakness from July 2008 high has already been seen. Based on historical comparisons with economic, commodities cycles of 1970s, expects AUD/USD to retest 0.6010 low from late October. Given speed and extent of decline in past year, "it seems reasonable to assume that the 0.55-0.60 area will be a firm floor for the AUD/USD on a multiyear basis." Pair now 0.6457

Syd 03:52 GMT January 30, 2009
No Stopping the Yen's Rise
Reply   
Expect more yen strength due to repatriation flows as Japan tries to prop up its ailing economy, says Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac Bank. He tells Kirby Daley from the Newedge Group & CNBC's Amanda Drury how best to play this currency
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1017323988&play
=1

YVR MAXXIM 03:09 GMT January 30, 2009
CRISIS

candu itse

Hong Kong Qindex 03:05 GMT January 30, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell HSBC
Entry: Target: Stop:

HSBC : Downside Targeting Point 34.9


The market is under pressure when it is below 60.6. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 52.1. A projected supporting barrier is expected at 43.5. The major downside targeting point is positioning at 34.9.


Trading Reference for HSBC


... 34.9 - 43.5* // 52.1 - 56.3 - [60.6]* - 64.9 - 69.2 // 77.7* - 86.3 ...

AMS MAXXIM 03:03 GMT January 30, 2009
CRISIS

snag - CNiB CC dobberman-herder-rottweiler huntingclub

Lahore FM 02:54 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

01/29/2009 08:43:16 FM Lahore 21
entered long audusd 0.6572,stops at 0.6450.
--
lowered stop for this by 20 pips to 0.6430.so far saved by 0.09 pip.
----
entred 2nd long aud usd 0.6460,stops at a later time.

Lahore FM 02:50 GMT January 30, 2009
Trade Ideas

final long eurjpy now entered 115.65,stops for this at 114.30.target 125.00.

Atlanta South 02:44 GMT January 30, 2009
Post 00:54
Reply   
Syd
Yes, we have a long trip ahead, but the masses just can't see it, or just don't want to see it. You are so correct. Tks.

Syd 02:35 GMT January 30, 2009
JPMorgan Slashes 2009 Aussie Econ Growth Forecast
Reply   
JPMorgan economists downgrade Australian economic growth forecasts further on back of "latest dire news on the global economy." Expects Australian economy to contract 0.5% in 2009, from previous forecast of 0.2% contraction. Says dismal outlook for global economy means tough times ahead for Australasian exporters. "A major concern will be the marked deterioration in conditions in Australia and New Zealand's dominant trading partners in Asia, which receive more than half total exports."

Gen dk 02:27 GMT January 30, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 01:24 GMT January 30, 2009
Australia Credit Growth Slowest In 15 Yrs In Dec
Reply   
Australian private-sector credit growth eased to its slowest on-year pace in 15 years in December as personal and business lending continued to contract amid a worsening global financial meltdown.
The weak credit report will further fuel speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut official interest rates aggressively at its first policy meeting for 2009 on Tuesday.
Financial markets expect the RBA to cut its cash rate target by 100 basis points to 3.25%, its lowest level since the mid-1960s. Business credit also contracted by 1.1% in December, adding to concerns that business investment, one of the main engines of Australian economic growth over the last decade, has shut down.

Syd 01:05 GMT January 30, 2009
Aussie Data Suggest Deep RBA Cut On Horizon-NAB
Reply   
Weaker-than-expected Australia credit data show "combined effects of a weakening economy and deleveraging," suggest increased chance of another large RBA cut next week, nabCapital senior economist David de Garis says. Expects further contraction in credit growth in months ahead. Says nabCapital's house view is for a 75bp RBA cut next week but "wouldn't be surprised if they did 100 bps"; expects cash rate to bottom at 2.5% around 3Q



Syd 01:02 GMT January 30, 2009
Aussie Earnings Forecasts Still Too High-Macquarie
Reply   
Reporting season will be "very tough" and investors should be prepared for "many negative shocks in terms of earnings and outlook statements", says Macquarie. Says earnings forecasts way too optimistic relative to 1981/82 and 1991/92 recessions. Sees risks particularly in financials, consumer-related industrials and mid-to-small cap resources. Says operating margins will be the greatest surprise, due to heavy discounting and increased working capital costs. Also expects costs of shedding labor, cancellation of contracts to surprise. Sees greatest risk from financials sector, given deteriorating trends for property valuations and bad debts. Predicts dividends will be cut faster than earnings as boards hoard cash to minimize risk of capital raisings and balance sheet stress.

Syd 01:00 GMT January 30, 2009
Worth a watch Charlie Gasparino
Reply   
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1016828136&play=1

Syd 00:54 GMT January 30, 2009
crisis
Reply   
Atlanta South 00:49 dont think you sound negative , problem is that people become complacent on how bad this situation is - listening to those who keep saying "Is this the bottom" well it isnt and if the recession of the 90s is anything to go by we are looking a few years down the track for "the bottom"

Atlanta South 00:49 GMT January 30, 2009
Post 00:30
Reply   
Syd,
Tks for your tireless efforts to keep us all informed with happenings from around the world. I'm sure the likes of Dodd & Franks will put together a banking plan that will be far superior to any they have drafted in the past. We can all rest well knowing whatever the plan is, it will surely fail, but just maybe it will take longer to do so. Not trying to sound negative, but just being a realist as goverment disasters are usually repeated.

Syd 00:46 GMT January 30, 2009
Credit to the Australian private sector fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in December from November
Reply   
Personal sector credit fell 1.1% in December from November and fell 5.2% from a year earlier, the RBA said in a statement.

Business sector credit fell 1.1% in December from November and rose 8.0% from a year earlier, the RBA said in a statement.
Housing sector credit rose 0.4% in December from November and rose 7.6% from a year earlier, the RBA said in a statement

AZUSA 4x-ed 00:43 GMT January 30, 2009
Post 11:33

Happy days indeed Dr. Z! Glad to see that you found some time for the censored... Are the beach goers scaling out of those short EUR/USD positions between 2800 and 2900 levels?

...and as one wise investor once told me, 'good to keep some skin in the game.'

Atlanta south 00:40 GMT January 30, 2009
post 18:36
Reply   
Mtl jp
Outstanding & YOU are correct.

Syd 00:30 GMT January 30, 2009
CRISIS
Reply   
Officials in the US are holding round-the-clock meetings with sr bank executives in relation to the "bad bank' plan, government has not reached an agreement on how the plan would work; The gov't talks with bankers has hit a snag - CNBC

Syd 00:25 GMT January 30, 2009
RBNZ Gov Paints Dim Econ View, Ready To Cut More DJ
Reply   
RBNZ Governor Bollard serves up more sobering view on economy, says further adverse news likely and central bank ready to keep cutting rates more; "We are in the middle of a major international shock, currently developing from financial turbulence into economic recession," Bollard tells Canterbury chamber; "lest there be any doubt, the tool box is by no means empty...if we need to, there is still room for us to cut the Official Cash Rate further in response to adverse economic developments." Should underpin market expectations RBNZ will have to cut further to revive sickly economy; bank cut 150 bps yesterday to record low 3.50%, with total 475 bps of easing done since July last year.

Syd 00:16 GMT January 30, 2009
FX
Reply   
AUSTRALIA NOV CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX: -1% V -0.2% PRIOR (revised from -0.5%)

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Alan Bollard Friday reiterated that the bank is ready to cut interest rates further to mitigate the shocks emanating from the global credit markets turmoil.

"We are in the middle of a major international shock, currently developing from financial turbulence into economic recession," Bollard told the Canterbury Employers' Chamber of Commerce in a speech.
The central bank chief said there's likely to be further adverse news for the domestic economy, and remedial interventions may well be necessary.

Syd 00:11 GMT January 30, 2009
UK GfK Jan Consumer Confidence Second Weakest In 34-Yr Series
Reply   
U.K. consumer confidence weakened again in January following a surprise recovery in December, feeding fears that historic interest rate cuts and fiscal action are failing to tame consumers' fears about the economic outlook.

According to the results of a monthly survey released by polling firm GfK NOP Friday, the headline measure of consumer confidence fell to -37 in January from -33 in December. That's the second weakest reading since the survey began in 1974.

Gen dk 00:11 GMT January 30, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

 




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