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Forex Forum Archive for 10/1/2009

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:56 GMT October 1, 2009
DJ EUR Falls As Stop-Loss Triggered; Bias Downward
Reply   
EUR/JPY falls as non-Japanese hedge funds trigger stop-loss selling orders placed around 130.00, says senior sales dealer at major bank in Tokyo; adds Japan insurance firms also eyed selling. Says bias downward as regional shares expected to fall, which will fuel risk aversion. EUR/JPY may fall to 129.00 vs last 129.90. EUR/USD may fall to 1.4450 vs last 1.4517.

HK JC 23:55 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd 2levels to be touched

1.5925 is already touched and exceed, still have chance to back 1.6019? Don't think so

HK [email protected] 23:51 GMT October 1, 2009
correction
Reply   
1.4490 is the right not 1.4990

Lack of sleep.

HK [email protected] 23:50 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/USD
Reply   
1.4500 likely to be seen with a risk to 1.4990

Richland QC Mailman 23:39 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/USD

Added euro longs @ 1.4525.

Aussie longs also up.

Melbourne Qindex 23:37 GMT October 1, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/JPY : The market is now below the neutral barrier at 142.94 // 144.60.

HK [email protected] 23:32 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/USD

It is likely that 1.4500 will give support to your trade, but this is the level to watch carefully for an unpleasant surprise.

GL/GT

Richland QC Mailman 23:29 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/USD

Fresh small longs 1.45305, with targets as planned.

HK [email protected] 23:26 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/USD
Reply   
Richland QC Mailman 23:17 GMT October 1, 2009

These kind of movements in the currency should not be excluded for the time.

I think the careful EUR trader should sideline for the time and try to catch a good buy EUR/USD deal close to (1.4365,1.4390) range if seen.
GL/GT

Melbourne Qindex 23:23 GMT October 1, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/JPY : The critical level is positioning at 140.18 - 141.97 which is now exerting its pulling effect on the market movement.

Richland QC Mailman 23:17 GMT October 1, 2009
Videos

Hi RF. I think there is still a good "long" trade off the 1.4520 support (50% fibo), aiming for 1.4570 (though sellers can start to line up from here), then 1.4620 further out. But from there, the preferred trading option is to SELL (daily chart correction/bearish already).

Melbourne Qindex 23:12 GMT October 1, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/JPY : Heading Towards 140.86


Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below 141.97.

HK [email protected] 22:58 GMT October 1, 2009
USD/CAD
Reply   
Buy USD/CAD
Entry: NOW Target: 1.0900 Stop: 1.0770

.

HK [email protected] 22:49 GMT October 1, 2009
Videos

Buy EUR/USD
Entry: (1.4365,1.4390) IF SEEN Target: at least 1.4900 Stop: 1.4300

EUR/USD sentiments has turned too bearish !!!

So one must not exclude that we may be into a reversal day.

A fast dip to a possible pivot at 1.4365 and a price trend reversal from that level should not be excluded.

The trade offered above has a nice risk/reward.

GL/GT to all

Richland QC Mailman 22:49 GMT October 1, 2009
Magnifying Glass for the Day - Aussie and Eur/Aud
Reply   
Ok folks, pleasant asian morning. Just want to share our personal outlook for the day, similar to a magnifying glass that tends to make one's eye see more.

Eur/Aud - rally from 1.6515 up to now 1.6730 (200+pip movement) has created a new lease on life for the pair, a bullish reversal in the works.
PLAN: BUY and ACCUMULATE ahead of 1.6600. TARGETS: INTRADAY - 1.6700/10; 2-3 DAYS: 1.6810.

Aussie - yesterday, we liquidated at 8730 which is the 50% fibo (8590 to 8860). Market stretched down to 8680 (61.8% fibo area). PLAN: BUY between 8690-8700. CONSERVATIVE TARGETS: 8740 (central pivot), 8770 (midpoint resistance). Should price goes down to 8620, it will still be a STRONG BUY.

Cable network readings later...


Lahore FM 22:02 GMT October 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Sell eurusd
Entry: 1.4540 Target: lower 1.40's Stop: 1.4615

sold.

Tonbridge AL 22:01 GMT October 1, 2009
Videos
Reply   
SETUP VIDEOS EUR/USD and GBP/USD --VIEW THEM NOW
Daily Trading Videos to set up positions for the next day Click on the Thursday's link on the new video homepage for each video to view Friday's setup. All other daily links work so you can also review the past week's drama as well.
EUR/USD Video
GBP/USD Video

Cape May 21:27 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd

za and john... thanks for your help. Please keep them coming.

Syd 20:22 GMT October 1, 2009
Reduce Risk, Correction Coming
Reply   
"Take risk off the table … we could see quite a significant correction," Bob Parker from Credit Suisse told CNBC when discussing the investment outlook. James Caan, CEO of Hamilton Bradshaw Private, joined the discussion.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840
232?video=1281628113&play=1

Stockholm za 20:20 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd




Thanks for that John.
Cape May >> I guess you may be right,
However, “decisive?” depends on what you want and/or looking at.
That chart is a very-very close up look at price action, and many other components have been left out. Zooming out that chart will show many more scenarios.
Happy trades….

GVI Forex john 20:06 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

N.Y. Closes-- Market Snapshot and Chart Gallery updated.

Survey of major markets.

Expanded Market Snapshot

Gen dk 20:06 GMT October 1, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 19:35 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd

Looking at the dailies, the GVI database show two bottoms. One minor at 1.4515 (Sep 14) and a more significant one at 1.4525 (Sep 29)

Cape May 19:20 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd

za- Nice chart. If I read it right, we start out with a succession of lower highs and lows, then EUR/$ tried to stabilize and ran into strong overhead resistance. Now we are probing for support around the 1.4520-30 area?

Am I right? A clear break of say 1.4500 would be decisive?

Syd 19:14 GMT October 1, 2009
$ index, major bottom getting close (not quite there)....
Reply   
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view
/fxa-column/

Stockholm za 19:11 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd




The re-draw...

Lahore FM 19:02 GMT October 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Sell nov crude
Entry: 70.52 Target: 65/60 Stop: 772.10

sold.

GVI Forex john 18:54 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

this has become tiresome.

GVI Forex john 18:49 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

For the sake of convenience, we have added a Forum directory to the right sidebar of most pages. Use it for quick access to our NEW Nuts and Bolts Discussion threads...

GVI Forex john 18:45 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Please stick to English out of courtesy to all forum members.

GVI Forex john 18:19 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

from: GVI Forex Discussion Points..

"...Disappointing economic data from the U.S. Thursday weighed on equities, and they in turn pulled the USD higher. Furthermore, the EUR was heavy vs. the USD and on its crosses, as some said that the markers were worried about the EU referendum on Friday in Ireland.

More weaker-than-expected data had some worried about the U.S. Non-farm payrolls report early Friday. One leading U.S. bank Thursday raised its official payrolls forecast to -250K. Odds are now the markets will look past a disappointing outcome. Street estimates had been for a smaller job loss in September of about -192K after a loss of -216K in August..."

hillegom purk 18:18 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

You know the story behind the song AS? if not google it.

Music is the engine behind forex you know...

GVI Forex john 18:17 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

OK lets stick to forex. Thanks.

hillegom purk 18:16 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Well massive break outs will become effective when you do not get that a... on that plane in a few hours. The 8 set up is waiting for you in howdee land...

On a forex matter, i will long the da.. thing for you, cable that is.

Belgrade AS 18:16 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Kiwi gold. Drawing pictures, mountain tops. Arms raised, in a V.
----------------------------------------
..clearly i remember picking on the boy.....seemed a humblest little wfak....ough...we unleashed a lion!
you are into pearl jam,again Purk?

Amman wfakhoury 18:13 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd 2levels to be touched
Reply   
HK JC 16:09 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd 2levels to be touched: Reply
1.6019 seem not work this time after 1st mentioned level hit

----------
actually we have 2 levels in the bottom to be touched 15961
and 15925 , as 15925 not touched yet..the touch of 16019
may delay.

USA ZEUS 18:08 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

USA ZEUS 16:39 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD: Reply
Massive scalp gains taken @ 1.5960. Left some from the bottom at break even for a chance at something bigger.

Forex is fun and simple
_______________________________________________________
After massive scalp gains, remaining small risk free allocation out at break even.

Cheers!

LA LA 18:04 GMT October 1, 2009
Mailman delivers
Reply   
Good call on the commodity currencies.. This time the Mailman delivered!

Lahore FM 17:45 GMT October 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

10/01/2009 12:47:02 FM Lahore 2

Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4553 Target: Stop: 1.4480
bought eurusd after getting stopped on half for plus 41 at 1.4550.
--
clsoed at 1.4543 for minus 10.looking to short.

hillegom purk 17:24 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Kiwi gold. Drawing pictures, mountain tops. Arms raised, in a V.

Cape May 17:21 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

John- weak equities a weight on EUR/$.

USA ZEUS 17:21 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

hillegom purk 16:50 GMT October 1, 2009

Kimbo Slice

GVI Forex john 17:17 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Weak stocks give bonds a lift...

US-2Y	0.877	-7.1	11.7
US-5Y	2.194	-12.6	63.4
US-10Y	3.195	-11.4	97.5
US-30Y	3.961	-8.9	129.1

GVI Forex john 17:09 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

European Closes-- Market Snapshot and Chart Gallery updated.

Survey of major markets.

Expanded Market Snapshot

PAR 17:08 GMT October 1, 2009
CIT
Reply   
NEW YORK (Reuters) - CIT Group Inc's (CIT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) board was meeting Thursday to consider a restructuring plan for the struggling commercial lender, a source familiar with the matter said.

Under the terms of a rescue loan CIT received in July, Thursday is the deadline for the company to come up with a restructuring plan agreeable to lenders.

On Wednesday, sources close to the situation said the company would offer its unsecured debt holders two options -- either exchange their debt voluntarily or face a prepackaged bankruptcy.

CIT declined to comment on Thursday. The source who reported the board meeting declined to be identified because talks are not public.

USA ZEUS 17:08 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Permission signaled.

hillegom purk 17:04 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Well, what a day, and it is not over yet. Anticipuffing another move. I like Ozmond, and usd/jpy.

hillegom purk 16:50 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

skype

Belgrade AS 16:47 GMT October 1, 2009
i don't get it

ZEUS,i see your point.it makes sence.btw,fiat is a car.....where i come from.

USA ZEUS 16:39 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Massive scalp gains taken @ 1.5960. Left some from the bottom at break even for a chance at something bigger.

Forex is fun and simple.

USA ZEUS 16:33 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

You've got to believe in order to receive.

Belgrade AS 16:31 GMT October 1, 2009
Aussie finally Dives Hard

AS, this could be the turnaround you were looking for the pair.
--------------------------
i'm afraid not,Mailman...Russians took AUD to their reserves....it's semi-official now.....it will go to 0,90 as soon as next week....and in the long run it will be 0,97/0,98....
i ,kind of ,gave up on idea of selling off for 0,7000 as a legit. target.....we'll see...i wount touch it before 0,9000...then we'll see what Russians really want.

USA ZEUS 16:31 GMT October 1, 2009
i don't get it

Belgrade AS 16:16 GMT October 1, 2009

Agree about food. Am a personal advocate of maintaining a 1-2 year food storage. Have full 2 yrs packed away for my family. As for gold- you are right. You cannot eat it. But the commodity boom is not only a fundamental phenomenon but Fiscal and technical which makes it a perfect storm for a currency disaster. Hence ALL physical hard and soft stuffs will continue higher. Better to have that than fiats. Food, physical silver and gold are my mainstays. Fiat is used only to fund fun forex and commodity trades.

Cheers!

Gen dk 16:31 GMT October 1, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 16:26 GMT October 1, 2009
Depression
Reply   
As long as Bernanke - the great specialist on economic depressions - is running the Fed , attention will stay focused on economic problems instead of on great economic opportunities .He just seems to like economic problems so that he can play Panoramix instead of letting free markets play and let bad companies go down. He did not see the crisis coming ,so he will not find the keys to solve it . Why keep listening to him, because he is a nice guy.

GVI Forex john 16:16 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

HIGHLIGHTS: The economic calendar will be active early Friday. More important Japanese data are due including All Household Spending and the politically-sensitive Unemployment rate. In Europe, August PPI data are usually not a market-moving release.

U.S. monthly employment data on Friday is a market-moving release, and serves as the basis for economic forecasts of a slew of other releases. After other recent data, odds are the markets have low expectations for the release. Factory orders due later are revisions to Durable Goods orders released a couple of weeks ago. Note China is on holiday though all next week. This weekend sees a Finance Ministers and Central Bankers meeting in Istanbul. Forex will certainly be on the agenda.


Upcoming Top Tier Releases:
FRIDAY
JA- Household Spending, unemployment
EZ- PPI
US- Monthly Employment, Factory Orders
MONDAY
EZ/UK/US- Service PMIs EZ- Retail Sales
US- 10-yr TIPS Auction
TUESDAY
AU- Trade, RBA
CH- CPI
US- Mortgage Stats, 3-yr Auction, API
CA- Ivey PMI
WEDNESDAY
CH- unemployment
EZ- GDP
DE- Industrial Orders
US- EIA Inventories, 10-yr auction


23:30

JA

Aug Hhld Spend yy

Cons: -0.2%

Last: -2.0%

23:30

JA

Aug Unemploy

Cons:5.8%

Last:5.7%

9:00

EZ

Aug PPI mm

Cons:+0.4%

Last: -0.8%

9:00

EZ

Aug PPI yy

Cons: -7.6%

Last: -8.5%

12:30

US

Sep Rate

Cons:9.8%

Last:9.7%

12:30

US

SepEmployment

Cons: -192K

Last: -216K

14:00

US

Aug Factory Ords

Cons:+1.1%

Last:+1.3%

 

Belgrade AS 16:16 GMT October 1, 2009
i don't get it

well ZEUS,as "dinking water" and "food" are exploding as new global commodities,i personally don't see gold above 750(mid-term) and 500(long term)....can't feed your kids with gold ...or chf,you know?
what's up with oil,anyway?

HK Kevin 16:13 GMT October 1, 2009
USD/JPY

HK [email protected] 16:05 GMT, thanks anyway. Look like a range of 89.50, 90.30 and 90.90

HK [email protected] 16:12 GMT October 1, 2009
i don't get it

Belgrade AS 16:00 GMT October 1, 2009

Many jewelry shops over the world shut down.
Gold may go to the price where it may be more affordable for the ladies.

HK JC 16:09 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd 2levels to be touched

1.6019 seem not work this time after 1st mentioned level hit

Richland QC Mailman 16:08 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

A break of 1.5900 is damaging for the bull army. Bruises and pains are being felt already since 1.5950 has given way.

USA ZEUS 16:05 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Plowed in and doubled up for the finale @ 1.5939

HK [email protected] 16:05 GMT October 1, 2009
USD/JPY

Can't answer, as I didn't give it enough attention.

Richland QC Mailman 16:04 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Cable on a MAJOR battleground between 1.5925-5950.

Though I would prefer to stay on the sidelines, Zeus, may the force be with you.

USA ZEUS 16:03 GMT October 1, 2009
i don't get it

Belgrade AS 16:00 GMT October 1, 2009
i don't get it
...btw,what's gold doing at 1000????

_____________________________________________________

Good question. Why its not at a more natural 6000 is quite disturbing eh?

HK [email protected] 16:02 GMT October 1, 2009
Thoughts
Reply   
Once, and if Euro goes below 1.4500, there are chances it will continue to 1.4400, in the vicinity of which is a hidden pivot at 1.4365.

Belgrade AS 16:00 GMT October 1, 2009
i don't get it
Reply   
ok,equities are down,right?s^p500 also down...wtf is it with oil?????...stockpiles are rising for 2 weeks now!!!!...and it;s gaining....while cad and aud are losing...i really don;t get it!
...btw,what's gold doing at 1000????

USA ZEUS 16:00 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

That's 1.5946.
Will plow in 1 last time if the market obliges before setting stops

USA ZEUS 15:58 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Position doubled again @ 1.59.46
No piker here.

USA ZEUS 15:56 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Positioned doubled @ 1.5952

USA ZEUS 15:55 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Added @ 1.5957

Richland QC Mailman 15:55 GMT October 1, 2009
Aussie finally Dives Hard
Reply   
Richland QC Mailman 02:54 GMT October 1, 2009
Aussie - Significant Correction Undeway?: Reply
Well, it is not too obvious at the moment but later during the day, should the pair close at around 8700 on NY... fill in the blanks.

Richland QC Mailman 02:29 GMT October 1, 2009
New Trades Executed: Reply
aussie/usd - fresh shorts 8837. 4th negative divergence spotted, bull fatigue could be inching closer. Looks like 8860/70 can be the top of the day, if not for the week.
-------------------------------------------------

Ok folks. I was away when our Aussie shorts profit limit target was hit at 8730 for +107pips. Whew!

AS, this could be the turnaround you were looking for the pair.

USA ZEUS 15:53 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

This market will frustrate many. Follow the yellow brick road.

Juffair KaL 15:52 GMT October 1, 2009
DJI going Bye Bye
Reply   
i think this is it Guys
it's over from 6700

the key level is 9200
if goes through it for a while
then 5600 is possible

HK Kevin 15:51 GMT October 1, 2009
USD/JPY
Reply   
HK RF, any mid-long term views on USD/JPY?

USA ZEUS 15:51 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Bought back 1/2 @ 1.5966 and lifted stops for now.

Belgrade AS 15:45 GMT October 1, 2009
The nervous trader

RF,Amman is right!eurusd is in a downtrend...it can only accelerate loses .forget the upside....sorry to have to say this - i have offers pending for two days at 1,4700!!!...it's history now.usd will rally now(against eur!)

USA ZEUS 15:45 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Closed 1/2 scalp @ 1.5985 for +25 and leaving the remaining at Break even.

Forex is fun and simple.

USA ZEUS 15:43 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

GBP/USD is confirmed and permissioned long

USA ZEUS 15:40 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

Can buy now on dip for low risk high reward scalp.

HK JC 15:38 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/USD

did your 1.4570 order execute? if yes, then good short.

USA ZEUS 15:31 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD

All set to charge north now.

HK [email protected] 15:27 GMT October 1, 2009
The nervous trader
Reply   
The nervous trader whom shorted the Euro at higher prices may close the trade at 1.4510. For the time being, for it may bounce again from 1.4510.

HK JC 15:24 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd

really, but seem EUR/GBP is no more downside, 0.9086 support is very strong, but anyway, thanks a lot.

Amman wfakhoury 15:21 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
no..eur.usd in sideway downtrend chanal.

USA ZEUS 15:21 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD
Reply   
Bought GBP/USD @ 1.5960 for a scalp

GENEVA JFO 15:20 GMT October 1, 2009
Closed short eurusd
Reply   
GENEVA JFO 09:39 GMT October 1, 2009
USD long ahead of unempl tomorow: Reply
Sell eurusd
Entry: 1.4581 Target: 1.4430 Stop: 1.4670

Eurusd prepare down move before G7.

This is a correction in the uptrend.
Looking for 1.4400 supportive and strong recovery after for 1.5000 target

============================================

Closed short eurusd and will re-open tom morning.

I have a good beer now

HK JC 15:16 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd 2levels to be touched

so can we long EUR as well as this level since GBP will touch 1.6019?

Amman wfakhoury 15:14 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd 2levels to be touched
Reply   
15961 and 16019 .if the price touch one level first then will take us to the other one.

Mtl JP 15:13 GMT October 1, 2009
Big Bets?

Amsterdam Purk, for colloquial expressions try the Urban Dictionary, possibly meaning #4

Amsterdam Purk 15:08 GMT October 1, 2009
Big Bets?

What means Piker Jeremy?

USA ZEUS 15:04 GMT October 1, 2009
Big Bets?

Miami JN 13:41 GMT October 1, 2009
Swing for the fences, Go big or go home, Drive for show and putt for dough right?

No sense in being a piker if you want to make it big.

GENEVA JFO 15:03 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
This was a good scalp...

HK [email protected] 14:50 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/USD
Reply   
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: (1.4570,1.4590) Target: 1.4460 Stop: 1.4610

.

HK [email protected] 14:44 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/USD
Reply   
HK [email protected] 11:05 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR: Reply
Buy EUR/USD
Entry: 1.4520 if seen Target: LATER Stop: 1.4470
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

For the short time can't see EUR/USD rising above 1.4577

So this is the liquidation target if revisited.

GVI Forex john 14:25 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Another disappointing reading. but still above 50...

EZ/US PMI mfg


GVI Forex john 14:20 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Pending Homes sales thru the roof... Some technical influence?

Existing/Pending Homes Sales

Ath. L.K. 14:17 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd

Looks like after speech and S&P at lower levels,Usd will hit new high.
Til now Euro takes help from crosses

Richland QC Mailman 14:09 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd

astalavista euro, gbp, aussie. See you at the pit.

GENEVA JFO 14:07 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
Now that figures are known, we can go further down and visiting under 1.4500

nyc 14:07 GMT October 1, 2009
data
Reply   
Data seems to be coming in below forecasts. Bond market may be telling us something?

London C 13:54 GMT October 1, 2009
Big Bets?

Looks like bets are that eur/usd does not break the 1.45 level. IMHO only

GVI Forex john 13:53 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

I've been hearing there is a lot of interest in the prices paid sub-component of the ISM PMI today.

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Countdown clock 14:00 GMT--

Purchasing Managers Index – Manufacturing and Service

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indies are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be a useful predictors of future economic activity.

Construction Spending

The Construction Spending data is a monthly report that report on the amount of construction spending for home building, which is the major component of the report. In addition to residential spending, the data also tracks spending on government projects and office buildings.

Pending Homes Sales

The Pending Homes sales index is produced by monthly by the NAR. Pending Home Sales become Existing-Home Sales one-to-two months later.

The index derived from Pending Home Sales is used to predict actual home sales activity.

Miami JN 13:41 GMT October 1, 2009
Big Bets?
Reply   
Anyone making big bets today? Looks like all the flow is into JPY crosses.

GVI Forex john 12:48 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Core PCE only new data on this chart. No issue for Fed at the moment.

U.S. CPI and Core PCE

Lahore FM 12:47 GMT October 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4553 Target: Stop: 1.4480

bought eurusd after getting stopped on half for plus 41 at 1.4550.

GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Disappointing weekly jobless claims. An improvement was seen.Make your own judgement on whether the trend is still improving or stalling...


Click on chart for five-year history

tallinn viies 12:34 GMT October 1, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
buying euros here at 1,4525 seems to be good idea. imho

Richland QC Mailman 12:18 GMT October 1, 2009
Eur/aud - major battlepoint lost
Reply   
Richland QC Mailman 02:29 GMT October 1, 2009
New Trades Executed: Reply
eur/aud - fresh small longs 1.6570's.
----------------------------------
This one stopped out -40pips. Good that it was small exposure only.

Relying now on earlier Aussie shorts which I think can go down 8730's or even 8700 later in the day.

Richland QC Mailman 12:12 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD will touch 2 levels

Hi folks, just back. Not happy as our earlier gbp/usd shorts were stopped at b/e. The pair is trapped in a 100 pip movement with 1.5925 and 1.6025. Which will give way? Neutral. Though it is a little bullish, the rejection from the central pivot at 1.6025 back to the range would be causing a degree of worry.

houston st 11:55 GMT October 1, 2009
intraday crude futures
Reply   


crude is currently rotating between the 50% balance point support ($68.98) and the upper pivot zone/Dynamic range high resistance (71.23 & 71.43 respectively)...my sizeable gut says lower here, but once again dollar and data will drive us...post 3Q hangover/pre-NFP seems to be in the air here today, at least for me, so not going to get too horsey for now...I'm more inclined to sell an approach to those upper resistance zones, fwiw...gl/gt.

houston st 11:51 GMT October 1, 2009
intraday euro futures
Reply   


price is well below the lower pivot zone and has stalled just above the extreme pivot/dynamic range low support...like yesterday's price action, I'd like to see a rotation at least back to the top of the lower pivot zone (1.4570) or higher...a return to the 50% balance point (1.4620) might be a stretch unless we get a catalyst today, and I'm looking for a test of those lower levels for now...gl/gt.

GVI Forex john 11:45 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Check Countdown clock above for data at 12:30 GMT

Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy. Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.


U.S. Core PCE price index

The Core PCE price index is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy.

IMPACT: Core PCE is said to be the preferred inflation measure of the Fed and therefore is a very significant release in that it can influence policy. It is thought the Fed targets core PCE loosely between 2.0% and 3.0%.

Global-View.com Chart: Core PCE

Personal Income

Personal Income is defined as the income that is received by persons from participation in production, from both government and business transfer payments, and from government interest (which is treated like a transfer payment). It is calculated as the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, personal dividend income, personal interest income, and transfer payments to persons, less personal contributions for social insurance.

GVI Forex john 11:40 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Earlier, European PMIs
data mixed. CH strong UK disappoints...

EZ/US PMI mfg


U.K. PMI mfg


Swiss PMI mfg

GVI Forex john 11:34 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Earlier Australia and Chinese PMIs. modest gains..

China PMI Mfg


Australia PMI Mfg

GVI Forex john 11:31 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Earlier... Improved as expected.

BOJ Tankan Survey

Abu Dhabi jb 11:21 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd is preparing for big movement

Hi There Agree with Amman

Amman wfakhoury 11:09 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd is preparing for big movement
Reply   
movement turned into sideways. no big movement expected today.

HK [email protected] 11:08 GMT October 1, 2009
CORRECTION
Reply   
will be closed all short EUR/USD. READ INSTEAD... closed all short EUR/USD.

HK [email protected] 11:05 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR
Reply   
Buy EUR/USD
Entry: 1.4520 if seen Target: LATER Stop: 1.4470

It will be hard to penetrate the 1.4500 for the time being, a bounce from 1.4520 may happen, so now will be closed all short EUR/USD.

My suggested trade above.

Gen dk 11:05 GMT October 1, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 10:12 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Post-Asia Closes-- Market Snapshot and Chart Gallery updated.

Survey of major markets.

Expanded Market Snapshot

Syd 10:08 GMT October 1, 2009
Euro-Zone Jobless Rate Rises To 10.5-Year High total number of jobless to 15.2 million
Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The unemployment rate in the 16 countries that use the euro rose to the highest level for 10-and-a-half years in August as companies laid off more staff in a bid to survive the deepest economic crisis since World War II, official data showed Thursday.Eurostat said 165,000 people joined unemployment queues across the euro zone in August, bringing the total number of jobless to 15.2 million, more than the entire populations of Austria and Ireland combined. Some 3.2 million people have lost their jobs in the year to August, it said. http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/
portal/eurostat/home/

Syd 10:05 GMT October 1, 2009
Romanian Coalition Government Breaks Up
Reply   
BUCHAREST (AFP)--Romania's coalition government collapsed Thursday when Social Democratic party ministers resigned to protest the sacking of one minister from the party, their leader said

Syd 10:01 GMT October 1, 2009
EU Juncker: Euro Zone Fin Mins Had Talks On Forex Rates
Reply   
EUR/USD is trading on the soft side Thursday weighed by earlier wire headlines from EU's Almunia suggesting today's EcoFin meeting will discuss euro appreciation. BNP Paribas says EUR/USD's August uptrend line intervenes at 1.4560 and a break here could spark a substantial dollar short covering rally. As a side note, the bank says it would participate in such a move by selling GBP/USD, which currently trades at 1.6002.

Juffair KaL 09:56 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD will touch 2 levels

I think cable wants 1.6145 today
did the low imo

Amsterdam Rob 09:54 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD will touch 2 levels

Yeah Fak, which one is it that will send accounts to be greeted by the 72 bearded virgins?

Juffair KaL 09:54 GMT October 1, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   
I think did the low today
1.4550 area
although i think wants 1.42
seems a Buy here till 1.4723

GVI Forex Jay 09:49 GMT October 1, 2009
Importance of Crosses in Spot Trading
Reply   
I suggest clicking on the link and reading the story posted there. It is a recap of what happened in EUR/GBP and GBP/USD yesterday. It shows how the market can be more than looking at charts in this world of electronic trading... CLICK HERE

GVI Forex john 09:48 GMT October 1, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

taken from...GVI Forex Discussion Points
"With quarter-end out of the way, the influence of special capital flows is expected to diminish. The focus now is on the U.S. employment report tomorrow. With more improvements seen, the only question is by how much and when. Odds are the markets will look past a disappointing outcome. Street estimates are for a smaller job loss in September of about -192K after a loss of -216K in August..."

Amman wfakhoury 09:43 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd
Reply   
Tokyo Tommy 09:30 GMT October 1, 2009
----
not yet.

GENEVA JFO 09:39 GMT October 1, 2009
USD long ahead of unempl tomorow
Reply   
Sell eurusd
Entry: 1.4581 Target: 1.4430 Stop: 1.4670

Eurusd prepare down move before G7.

This is a correction in the uptrend.
Looking for 1.4400 supportive and strong recovery after for 1.5000 target

Syd 09:35 GMT October 1, 2009
WORLD FOREX: Data Concerns Help Dollar; Euro Hurt By G7
Reply   
The dollar is higher in Europe Thursday because of economic concerns and the euro is lower because it appears the European Union may not be too happy with its recent strength.

Although market sentiment as a whole continued to be dominated by uncertainty over the global recovery, the single currency got a hard knock at the European opening after E.U. Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the euro group will be discussing the euro's appreciation to prepare its position ahead of the G7 meeting in Istanbul this weekend.

This prompted a sharp selloff pushing the euro back under $1.46. The currency also wasn't helped by early news that German retail sales fell in August by 1.5%, more than reversing the 0.7% rise that had been recorded for July.

Tokyo Tommy 09:30 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD will touch 2 levels

then.......
going up or down???
which one?

Amman wfakhoury 09:27 GMT October 1, 2009
GBP/USD will touch 2 levels
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:15 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd need to touch 2 levels: Reply
15996 15962 , touching one of these level will take you to another one.

----------
done..it touched 15962 first then 15996.

Haifa ac 09:03 GMT October 1, 2009
USD Firms In Jittery Trade

Yup. It is crucial here. Will the dollar fall?

http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:0yHcC9boiHRQtM:http://2.bp.blogspot.com/ _pZVXZ9mOHRU/Skct0AOQ2nI/AAAAAAAABJo/aifaZTyux1s/s400/secu
redownload.jpg

MONACO OGA 08:42 GMT October 1, 2009
FX Update October 1st
Reply   
Good morning,

Data out today (Monaco time):

IT FR and DE Mfg PMI all higher than expected
10:30 GP CIPS Mfg PMI September expected 50.30
11:00 EZ unemployment rate August expected 9.6%
13:30 US challenger layoffs September
14:30 US consumption mm August expected 1.10%
14:30 US core PCE price index mm August expected 0.10%
14:30 US initial claims expected 530k
14:30 US personal income mm August expected 0.10%
16:00 US construction spending August expected -0.10%
16:00 US ISM manufacturing PMI September expected 54
16:00 US pending sales change mm August expected 1.0%

***EUR***
EUR/USD (currently 1.4585), 20 pips lower, range overnight 1.4550-1.4675.
EUR/USD keeps feeling heavy, but seems happy to consolidate around 1.46.
Yesterday related SNB's intervention send USD higher but was not able to break 1.4550 support.
All in all, EUR/USD seems to be consolidating after a few volatile sessions, we still have a bearish view with 1.4400/50 objective.
We squared 1.4670 short EUR/USD at entry price and will look for rebounds to sell again.
TRADING IDEA : SHORT EUR/USD 1.4670 (STOP 1.4730, PROFIT 1.4550)

***JPY***
USD/JPY ( 90.00), 25 pips higher than yesterday and consolidating inside 89.33-90.17, recent JPY's strengh putting pressure on japanese stock markets.
Since USD/JPY has broken 90 support (lower band of descending channel), technicals suggest a test of 87 short term.
We remain sidelined for the moment but will monitor any decisive break of 90.30 level.
TRADING IDEA : LONG USD/JPY 90.50 Stop Entry (STOP 89.90, PROFIT 92.30)
EUR/JPY (131.30) up 20 pips, range 130.60-131.80 very similar to what occured the past couple of days.
One can play the range with relative confidence.

***GBP***
Cable (1.5975), down 1 point as Sterling was heavily sold above 1.61, as UK was named one of the most vulnerable countries to credit shortage.
Low was 1.5923 while 1.60 appears pretty well defended.
GBP/USD could not reach our 1.62 sell level. We will wait for a 1.60 rebound to sell today as momentum is strong enough for 1.57 and 1.54.
TRADING IDEA : SHORT GBP/USD 1.6000 (STOP 1.6050, PROFIT 1.5800)
EUR/GBP (0.9140), resuming uptrend on GBP's weakness, and looking neutral and rangy.

*** CHF***
USD/CHF (1.0400) 60 pips higher , printed 1.0449 on related SNB's intervention but was rejected lower.
EUR/CHF 1.5175, rebounded 1 point and now looking neutral, however we are disappointed by the relative little effect of the CHF weakening intervention.
Our view remains to buy on dips, as Risk/Reward ratio is in favour of short CHF.

***XAU+OIL***
XAU 1007 up 11$ as OIL rised above 70$ and geopolitical worries (Iran).

Have a great day!

Edinburgh Bam 08:22 GMT October 1, 2009
$-jpy
Reply   
couple of decent buyers around $jpy I hear..think needs to clear 90.15/25 then 90.45 to get moving though although if we do dip, 89.70/50 looks like a good area to pick up $

Amman wfakhoury 08:15 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd need to touch 2 levels
Reply   
15996 15962 , touching one of these level will take you to another one.

Maribor 08:03 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd is preparing big move

My comment regarding longer(1 month) term: average of xxxJPY crosses will go down approx. >~10% according to my leading indicators.

As USDJPY may go up(?), other crosses will bring average down(EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, CADJPY).

HK [email protected] 07:50 GMT October 1, 2009
EURO
Reply   
Euro likes 1.4500 and maybe even 1.4450 exhaustive.

Syd 07:43 GMT October 1, 2009
Irish Referendum May Be Weighing on EUR
Reply   
Uncertainty over Ireland's referendum on the Lisbon Treaty Friday may be adding to the EUR's woes. But, says RBS, opinion polls suggest voters will approve of the treaty, giving the European Union more federal power.

London 07:36 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd is preparing big move

The only big move will be the in and out movement on your moneymaker...again..

Amman wfakhoury 07:25 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd is preparing big move
Reply   
Direction not decided yet.

Richland QC Mailman 07:19 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd is preparing big move

big move? what kind of big move? north or south? south or north?

Amman wfakhoury 07:14 GMT October 1, 2009
gbp.usd is preparing big move
Reply   
during coming hours be ready for big move.

Syd 07:06 GMT October 1, 2009
USD Firms In Jittery Trade
Reply   
The USD has firmed overnight in jittery trade with several different factors driving the gains. Wednesday suspected SNB intervention continues to support USD/CHF. In USD/JPY exporter sellers have been replaced by importer buyers to take advantage of the rates low level and EUR/USD dropped almost one cent in Asia after Reuters ran a headline saying the EU's Almunia said the Eurogroup would discuss euro appreciation in preparation for the upcoming G7 meet. For Thursday, the data calendar is packed but it may well be the fear of intervention, physical [SNB] or verbal [ECB] that keeps the market on its toes.

Syd 06:10 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/JPY, EUR/USD Fall On Reported EU Comments
Reply   
EUR/JPY, EUR/USD fall after Reuters reports EU's Almunia as saying European officials to debate EUR strength in preparation for G-7 meeting this weekend, says Takashi Matsui, senior FX dealer at Royal Bank of Scotland. EUR/JPY falls more than 40 sen, last 131.17, EUR/USD down more than 50 points to 1.4570. Dealers say comments prompting speculative EUR sales. Support for EUR/JPY at 131.00, at 1.4550 for EUR/USD, says Minoru Shioiri, senior FX dealer at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities.

Syd 06:06 GMT October 1, 2009
EU Almunia: Eurogroup To Prepare Position For G-7 - Reuters
Reply   
EU Almunia: Eurogroup To Discuss Euro Rise - Reuters

German Aug Retail Sales Forecast At +0.1% On Month
German Aug Retail Sales Real -2.6% On Year
German Aug Retail Sales Real Adj -1.5% On Month

Spotforex NY 05:46 GMT October 1, 2009
Euro
Reply   
EU's Almunia: Eurogroup will discuss the appreciation levels in the EUR

Juffair KaL 05:40 GMT October 1, 2009
chiwawa MKT
Reply   
such chiwawa MKT these day

Syd 04:07 GMT October 1, 2009
Nikkei hits 2-month low as yen hurts exporters
Reply   
TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average hit its lowest point in two months on Thursday, with exporters such as Advantest Corp sagging on concerns that the yen's recent strength may eat into their overseas profits. The benchmark Nikkei dropped 1.5 percent to 9,980.62, after briefly touching 9,970.33, its lowest since late July. The broader Topix fell 1.5 percent to 896.15.

Blore RKG 04:06 GMT October 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Blore RKG 09:41 GMT September 30, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
Blore RKG 04:21 GMT September 30, 2009

Bit of indiscipline here - moving my stops to 1.6190. This is not the correct thing to do but i cant see any other way than shorting cable at the moment.

==============================================

Alive and kicking - moved my stop to 1.6080. With some in and out trading, cost of the entire position is very close to this level. Target now 1.5750.

Stopped on the oz trade.

Other interests at the moment - looking to pick EUR/JPY rhs.

Richland QC Mailman 02:54 GMT October 1, 2009
Aussie - Significant Correction Undeway?
Reply   
Well, it is not too obvious at the moment but later during the day, should the pair close at around 8700 on NY... fill in the blanks.

Richland QC Mailman 02:29 GMT October 1, 2009
New Trades Executed
Reply   
eur/aud - fresh small longs 1.6570's.

aussie/usd - fresh shorts 8837. 4th negative divergence spotted, bull fatigue could be inching closer. Looks like 8860/70 can be the top of the day, if not for the week.

YVR MAXXXIM 02:08 GMT October 1, 2009
MAJOR Battlepoints - Identify, Scrutinize, Decide

10000 tajmealhalls ?does the catering

Richland QC Mailman 02:08 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/AUD - Major Battle Point Unleashed

1.5550 should have been 1.6550.

Richland QC Mailman 02:04 GMT October 1, 2009
EUR/AUD - Major Battle Point Unleashed
Reply   
GENEVA JFO 18:56 GMT September 30, 2009
TOPPING: Reply
Buy EURAUD
Entry: 1.6583 Target: 1.7300 Stop: later
After 6 month downside freeride, we could reverse for the next quarter.
We are long now on medium term for 5 figures recovery.
-----------------------------------------------------

Looking at the daily and hourly charts, looks like we have a MAJOR Battleground established at 1.5550. There is a positive hourly divergence, with several touches on this support level. Well, it could be the turning point, as JFO has already sided with the bull army. Perhaps, more will board the plane later...

London 02:01 GMT October 1, 2009
MAJOR Battlepoints - Identify, Scrutinize, Decide

I am happy to be a participant in the SB Index if i can get a guarantee that the 72 virgins i will get are not bearded,,,,,

NRT MAXXXIM 01:55 GMT October 1, 2009
MAJOR Battlepoints - Identify, Scrutinize, Decide

NLOK Cologne KOLN AK$&11 ROB.

AMS MAXXXIM 01:47 GMT October 1, 2009
MAJOR Battlepoints - Identify, Scrutinize, Decide

what's next? Germans keep the Garbage.

Amsterdam Rob 01:33 GMT October 1, 2009
MAJOR Battlepoints - Identify, Scrutinize, Decide

We have Islamic bonds...now we have islamic fx charts...whats next?..an Islamic SB sentiment Index?...lol.....

HAJ Chart ملا 01:12 GMT October 1, 2009
MAJOR Battlepoints - Identify, Scrutinize, Decide



MULLAH

HAJ AUTOPSYTEM 00:55 GMT October 1, 2009
MAJOR Battlepoints - Identify, Scrutinize, Decide

Cam Levels
AUDUSD EURJPY EURUSD GBPJPY GBPUSD USDCAD USDCHF USDJPY
Brk Out Long 0.8908 132.056 1.4703 144.28 1.6094 1.0794 1.0452 90.273
Short 0.8869 131.676 1.4671 143.82 1.6038 1.0745 1.0407 89.987
HL2 0.8855 131.549 1.4660 143.67 1.6020 1.0728 1.0392 89.891
HL1 0.8842 131.422 1.4649 143.51 1.6001 1.0712 1.0377 89.796
LL1 0.8816 131.168 1.4627 143.21 1.5965 1.0679 1.0347 89.604
LL2 0.8803 131.041 1.4616 143.05 1.5946 1.0662 1.0332 89.509
Long1 0.8789 130.914 1.4605 142.90 1.5928 1.0646 1.0317 89.413
Brk Out Short 0.8750 130.534 1.4573 142.44 1.5872 1.0596 1.0272 89.127

Richland QC Mailman 00:13 GMT October 1, 2009
MAJOR Battlepoints - Identify, Scrutinize, Decide
Reply   
Folks, since this could be a thrilling Thursday with news data releases later, allow me to ask you to help our trading brothers pinpoint the MAJOR battlepoints for the ff pairs:

>Gbp/Usd
>Eur/Usd
>Usd/Cad
>Gbp/Yen
>Usd/Yen

Then the second step would be for you to cite pertinent technical or fundamental data to back your case - either you would be joining the BULL or the BEAR army. You may include factors as CONFLUENCE of EVENTS you want to see as evident, which would be leading you to DECIDE and EXECUTE the trade later.

May I humbly request your participation - FM, Zeus, Dr. Q, Wfak, za, viies, gingko, AS, and others who would be more than willing to contribute.




Richland QC Mailman 00:01 GMT October 1, 2009
Shorts in play
Reply   
Sell gbp/usd
Entry: 1.6000 Target: open Stop: 1.6035

First shorts of the day just triggered.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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Mon 27 May 2019
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