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Forex Forum Archive for 11/11/2009

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HK [email protected] 23:53 GMT November 11, 2009
We're NOT lower class!

.

"Quality cuts of meat, fresh fish and high-priced cheeses are being taken by mostly middle-class women from speciality food and convenience shops".

I am sure they are stealing from their husbands pockets too.

I canceled my wedding right now!!! Thanks you for the post.

MVC-IA DharmaMacro 23:18 GMT November 11, 2009
EUR/JPY & EUR/USD

Just closed EUR/JPY long for 30 pip gain at 134.85 and reversed to short. EUR/USD should head back to 1.4965 then we wait.....GT

Syd 23:13 GMT November 11, 2009
Nakheel debt triggers Islamic bond concerns
Reply   
NAKHEEL, Dubai's leading property company and owner of the Palm development, offshore of the Gulf city, is in talks with Dubai World, its heavily indebted parent, over the repayment of a $US3.5 billion ($3.76 billion) Islamic bond. The Times

Tallinn viies 23:09 GMT November 11, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
euro has been resting before fresh spurt higher. keeping my long euro but would like to add at lower levels, near 1,4920-30 would be perfect.
Im trying to play on the long side this euro game as long as it is staying over 1,4880. 1,53 is target for this month and 1,57 for next one.
good luck, best buy seems to be crude at the moment. it is standing very close to yesterdays low and charts are ready to rock n roll

dc CB 23:09 GMT November 11, 2009
We're NOT lower class!
Reply   
Middle-class shoppers who have been hit by the recession are stealing hundreds of millions of pounds of expensive food in an effort to maintain their high standard of living, according to a new survey.

Quality cuts of meat, fresh fish and high-priced cheeses are being taken by mostly middle-class women from speciality food and convenience shops, where thefts have risen sharply in the past year. Thousands of retailers have found that luxury foods are being stolen for individual use rather than to be sold on.


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/crime/article6910302.ece

MVC-IA DharmaMacro 22:40 GMT November 11, 2009
GBP/USD
Reply   
GBP/USD heading towards 1.6700? any thoughts from the usual suspects?

GVI Forex Blog 22:34 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Canada's currency rose to its highest close in three weeks on Wednesday in a listless session in which firmer commodities prices sparked an early rally before activity ground to a halt later in the

Forex Market News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ hits 3-week high in third day of gains

lkwd jj 22:25 GMT November 11, 2009
best trade
Reply   
Buy usdjpy
Entry: 89.85 ob Target: 90.80 Stop: 89.49

after my last target was almost hit low was 28 i was looking for 20, now feel this mkt looking ^ to hit downtrend line on daily.the pattern is in this ">" shape. with the bottom holding , expect top to be tried if not broken. hourly flag still working pointing to 90.50 if it matures..

GVI Forex Blog 22:09 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Liquidity lighter in U.S. GBP off sharply on inflation report King open to more bonds if needed

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (11 November 2009)

GVI Forex john 22:07 GMT November 11, 2009
What's Your Best Trade?

We are very pleased with the acceptance of this new thread. We encourage EVERYONE to participate! Don't forget to include a SHORT rationale.

POST YOUR BEST TRADE

To grow as traders we all have to stick our necks out. Just use the trading template. Enter:
"buy or sell"
name your currency pair
entry level
target price
stop loss level

Add your rationale:

Examples:
chart formation
model
fundamentals
gut
whatever

We can GUARANTEE you are going to be wrong frequently. Everybody who trades is wrong a lot. That's how the true professionals learn humility. The idea is to keep your losses small enough so you can survive to trade another day. Its time for all of us to grow!

Wall Street 22:00 GMT November 11, 2009
Pound Pessimism at Highest Since March on Economy

Markets went nuts when the BOE inflation report was released. They overreacted o the headlines (bought GBPUSD) then sold it off on the comments by BOE King. Today illustrated how some knowledge of the fundamentals can help you make money and at worst avoid big losses.

Syd 21:36 GMT November 11, 2009
Pound Pessimism at Highest Since March on Economy
Reply   
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Investors turned pessimistic on the pound for the first time since April on speculation that the Bank of England will keep interest rates at a record low into the second half of 2010, a survey of Bloomberg users showed.
LINK

GVI Forex Blog 21:27 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
The dollar hit a 15-month low against major currencies on Wednesday on the view that U.S. interest rates will remain low well into next year, though it regained some ground after failing to push through key levels.

FOREX NEWS-Dollar hits 15-month low; sterling falls sharply

PAR 21:04 GMT November 11, 2009
DOW
Reply   
Dow Jones , 6 th consecutive up day . Work of God or of GS .

Number of Dow ‘Hitting Streaks’ Since 1928
5 Consecutive Up Days:
374

6 Consecutive Up Days:
190

7 Consecutive Up Days:
85

8 Consecutive Up Days:
48

9 Consecutive Up Days:
25

10 Consecutive Up Days:
11

11 Consecutive Up Days:
5

12 Consecutive Up Days:
3

13 Consecutive Up Days:
1

Total Data Points:
19,717


MVC-IA DharmaMacro 21:03 GMT November 11, 2009
EUR/JPY & EUR/USD

Reversed from short to long both pairs at market, EUR/JPY was a small loss of -6 pips...

Viet Nam Forex Begin 20:49 GMT November 11, 2009
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Reply   
Sell GBP/USD
Entry: 1.6556 Target: 1.6526 Stop: 1.6586

Wednesday, 11 November 2009 20:48 GMT

Pune 20:37 GMT November 11, 2009
buy
Reply   


Buy erugbp
Entry: 0.9044 Target: 0.9179 Stop: 0.8910

Buy with SL

lkwd jj 20:15 GMT November 11, 2009
option expiry
Reply   
why all the talk of options in usdjpy and to a lesser degree euro, but hardly ever a factor in gbp? every other day this option rolling off and that one cant get any good movement.

Chicago CL 20:02 GMT November 11, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4970 Target: 1.5020 Stop: 1.4940

Is anyone buying into the holiday sell off? Taking a shot with a tight stop. Hope to see 1.5020 again.

GVI Forex Blog 19:59 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
I am a big fan of Ben Bernanke, but not in some slavish, Stockholm-effect way. He runs an agency that fell on its face when it came to one of its main charges…

What is not priced? Loss of Fed Independence!

GVI Forex Blog 19:57 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
US equity markets opened strongly on the Veteran's Day bank holiday, making a new 2009 high in the first hour on the back of China's bullish set of economic data releases.

Forex Research - Morning Report

GVI Forex john 19:34 GMT November 11, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support



Forex Trading Discussion Points

Daily Edition-

20:00 GMT- TRADING SCENARIO: Wednesday proved to be a surprisingly active session despite holidays in the U.S. and Canada. Bond markets were closed with the Fed observing the government holiday. Data from the U.K. were mixed with the latest employment statistics better than expected earlier. The quarterly BOE Inflation report illustrated again...

More

Livingston nh 19:00 GMT November 11, 2009
Weber Comments

Seasonals in equities haven't been too useful but the period up to Thanksgiving has usually provided a Turkey before the Santa Claus rally

Wall Street 18:51 GMT November 11, 2009
Weber Comments

FM- Only talking about equities bottoming today. I assume your time frame is much longer?

Lahore FM 18:44 GMT November 11, 2009
Weber Comments

stox headed for 1070 imho and according to my book.

Gen dk 18:37 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Wall Street 18:34 GMT November 11, 2009
Weber Comments

Equity markets look to have bottomed. Maybe they go sideways for the rest of the day. If they stabilize maybe we drift back to EURUSD 1.50 this afternoon.

Mtl JP 18:33 GMT November 11, 2009
Weber Comments

PAR - sounds like all the good and better reasons to help stox crash then in order to make the dlr pop UP. And make Wen Jimbao little less stressed out and anxious about his mountain on US fiat.

Lahore FM 18:32 GMT November 11, 2009
Trade Ideas

Sell audusd/nzdusd
Entry: Target: Stop:

sold audusd 0.9290,stops at 0.9370,take profit at 0.88.

nzdusd sold at 0.7395,stops 0.7450,t/p at 0.7200 and 0.6900.

MVC-IA DharmaMacro 18:07 GMT November 11, 2009
EUR/JPY & EUR/USD

short EUR/JPY at market in reference to earlier post, same stop and explanation....GT

Tallinn viies 18:03 GMT November 11, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
bought euros at 1,4967, stop at 1,4917.
target 1,51

HK [email protected] 17:48 GMT November 11, 2009
1.4930
Reply   
All time EUR/USD is above 1.4930 the Euro bulls will still huff and puff, a breach of this level may cause some stoplosses.

PAR 17:12 GMT November 11, 2009
Weber Comments

Stocks higher > Dollar lower.

Wall Street 17:08 GMT November 11, 2009
Weber Comments

mac- it all depends on stox.

nyc mac 17:07 GMT November 11, 2009
Weber Comments
Reply   
ECB monetary policy hawk Weber just on the wires saying its too early for ECB to reverse policies. Comments fly in the face of talk earlier this week that he ECB has been quietly tightening.

Watching to see how or if EURUSD reacts. Looking heavy now.

GVI Forex Blog 16:38 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Price action on USD/CHF, a daily chart of which is shown, has dropped to within just a few pips shy of the 15-month low (1.0030) that was hit just a couple of weeks ago. This occurs within the context

Chart of the Day - 11/11/2009 – USD/CHF

London HC 16:34 GMT November 11, 2009
news out?

gbp/usd is leading as eur/gbp has firmed during this dollar pop.

Amman wfakhoury 16:32 GMT November 11, 2009
AUDNZD
Reply   
empoli (Italy) ab 16:16 GMT November 11, 2009
-------
in weak uptrend

Amman wfakhoury 16:29 GMT November 11, 2009
usdjpy
Reply   
empoli (Italy) ab 16:16 GMT November 11, 2009
-------
usd jpy in uptrend to 90.20 first .

ldn 16:28 GMT November 11, 2009
news out?

This is what happens when you trade in an illiquid market.

GVI Forex john 16:27 GMT November 11, 2009
WALL STREET

ab - Normal hours if Im not mistaken.

empoli (Italy) ab 16:24 GMT November 11, 2009
WALL STREET
Reply   
John, excuse me, at what will close today WS, normal time or earlier due to Veterans Hol pls?
tia for usual cooperation

lkwd jj 16:19 GMT November 11, 2009
usdjpy
Reply   
Buy usdjpy
Entry: 90.21 bid Target: 91.50 Stop: 89.70

bull flag developing on hourlies. if we take out yesterdays highs off to the races. euryen might be driver if eurusd stays flat.

GVI Forex john 16:18 GMT November 11, 2009
news out?

As usual, equities in the lead. Both forex and equity markets are thin today.

MVC-IA DharmaMacro 16:18 GMT November 11, 2009
EUR/JPY & EUR/USD
Reply   
Sell EUR/JPY & EUR/USD
Entry: 133.76 Target: OPEN Stop: 135.00

Orders in, EUR/USD order to short is in at 1.4994 with a above days highs. Today is a holiday coupled with an exponential rise in gold which is going to have a part in the markets one way or another in terms of a large pullback. The talk is starting in mainstream media about gold going higher and higher with analysts saying it is going to $2,000 etc...In my eyes it will go the way every exponential rise goes, an exponential fall just like that of oil last year, there will possibly even be some new regulations afterward just like they did with oil speculators etc. Anyways, there is another 5 cents from mwa! GT to everyone...

GVI Forex john 16:16 GMT November 11, 2009
news out?

PW- No news that Ive heard, but equities just broke...

empoli (Italy) ab 16:16 GMT November 11, 2009
EUR/JPY

Amman wfakhoury

in fact u r the Master......
now i shorted usd yen at 89.90 and went long audnzd at 1,2560.
think usd yen cud touch again 89,30 (my tp with sl at 90,50)
and aud nzd cud go higher after tonite data from nzd and aus.
thanks to u advices (gbp usd and eur yen) i had some profits to be spent....
if u want give me a comment abt my pos it wud be very grateful for me wfak
tia n gl to u

Singapore PW 16:13 GMT November 11, 2009
news out?
Reply   
My alert just woke me up. Did something just come out on the newswires?

lkwd jj 16:12 GMT November 11, 2009
chart gap
Reply   
lkwd jj 21:28 GMT November 10, 2009 Reply
censored showing gap on 1hr chart 9 hours ago. anybody else with that? maybe with mkt so slow happened but really weird
-------------------------------------------------------censored = geee efff teeee. notice todays high? 90.03 to close gap to a tick. FM am i crazy or what?

Amman wfakhoury 16:11 GMT November 11, 2009
EUR/JPY
Reply   
good to hear that me too entered at 135.25 exited 134.60

empoli (Italy) ab 16:09 GMT November 11, 2009
EUR/JPY

just to advise i was short at 135,23 on avg but unfortunately closed all at 134,94

GVI Forex john 16:07 GMT November 11, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

HIGHLIGHTS: Japanese wholesale prices (Corporate Goods Prices) are due early Thursday. BOJ monetary policy remains on hold. Of greater interest may be Australian employment data with the RBA seen on the cusp of hiking rates again in December. The data are seen weaker. In Europe, Eurozone industrial production is seen strong again.

In North America, U.S. weekly jobless claims are always closely followed. Weekly crude oil inventories will be released with a one-day delay due to the Veterans Day holiday. Natural gas inventories are due as well. The session will also see a $16bln 30-yr bond auction.


Upcoming Top Tier Releases:
Friday
JA- Industrial Output
EZ- GDP
US- Trade, X-M Prices, U of Mich
CA- Trade
Monday
EZ- HICP
CA- Manufacturing Sales
US- Retail Sales, Empire PMI, Business Inventories
Tuesday
CH- Retail Sales
EZ- Trade
US- PPI, TIC Data, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, NAHB Index
Wednesday
EZ- Current Account
CA- CPI
US- Housing Starts/Building Permits, CPI

23:50

JA

Oct CGPI mm

Cons: -0.1%

Last:+0.1%

23:50

JA

Oct CGPI yy

Cons: -6.0%

Last: -7.9%

0:30

AU

Oct Unemploy

Cons:5.8%

Last:5.7%

0:30

AU

OctEmployment

Cons: -10.0

Last:+40.6K

10:00

EZ

Sep Ind Prod yy

Cons: -14.1%

Last: -15.4%

10:00

EZ

Sep Ind Prod mm

Cons:+0.9%

Last:+0.9%

13:30

US

WK Cont Claims

Cons:5.700m

Last:5.749m

13:30

US

Wk Initial Claims

Cons:510K

Last:512K

15:30

US

DOE Nat Gas bcf

Cons:+15

Last:+29

16:00

US

DOE Distillate

Cons: -0.3m

Last: -380K

16:00

US

DOE Cap Util

Cons:80.8%

Last:80.6%

16:00

US

DOE Crude Oil

Cons:+0.4m

Last: -3.9m

16:00

US

DOE Gasoline

Cons:unch

Last: -287K

18:00

US

TRY 30-yr

Cons:n/a

Last:n/a

london hmk 16:07 GMT November 11, 2009
dollar up
Reply   
farewell to euro gbp etc... dollar up again till next week

Amman wfakhoury 16:03 GMT November 11, 2009
EUR/JPY
Reply   
EUR/JPY sell 2lots at 135.40.tp 134.50
may be this signal missed by some traders , as the high was
135.38

PAR 15:23 GMT November 11, 2009
Interesting Statistics
Reply   
Since 1928, the Dow has rallied for eight or more days only 48 times. This is few enough to make it a rare event, but sufficient to draw some meaningful conclusions. The following chart shows the number of Dow "hitting streaks" that lasted more than four days.

Number of Dow 'Hitting Streaks' Since 1928
5 Consecutive Up Days:
374

6 Consecutive Up Days:
190

7 Consecutive Up Days:
85

8 Consecutive Up Days:
48

9 Consecutive Up Days:
25

10 Consecutive Up Days:
11

11 Consecutive Up Days:
5

12 Consecutive Up Days:
3

13 Consecutive Up Days:
1

Total Data Points:
19,717

After the 13-day streak back in 1987, the stock market continued to perform exceptionally well for nine months after the streak ended. However, if you look a year forward, you see the Black Monday stock market crash, which would have erased your returns in one fell swoop.

London SFH 15:12 GMT November 11, 2009
DOW


Maybe-I have shorted s&p.s and gone long WTI...

PAR 15:09 GMT November 11, 2009
DOW
Reply   
Looks like another day the DOW may go up more than 200 points . This seems to be " the new normal " .

GVI Forex Blog 15:02 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 11, 2009 Free webinar - An insider's guide to Forex Expert: Richard Regan When: Tue, Nov 17, 2009, 17:00 EST

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 11/11/2009

GVI Forex Jay 14:49 GMT November 11, 2009
usd/chf
Reply   


Check out the usd/chf daily chart posted on GVI Forex earlier. Test of key support again today.

Lahore FM 14:36 GMT November 11, 2009
Trade Ideas

11/10/2009 09:10:46 FM Lahore 7

Sell dec ft 100
Entry: 5237.5 Target: 5000/4800 Stop: 5285
sold now.
--
stopped on ft 100 shorts for minus 40 points.

GVI Forex Blog 14:30 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Chinese officials comments, warning of potential over-investment, ask lenders to lend less freely so the economy will not overheat. But at the same time...

China: Smooth-talking their way to prosperity

GVI Forex Jay 14:27 GMT November 11, 2009
eur/usd
Reply   


As posted on GVI Forex:

Check out the 4 hour chart. I tried to use the 1 hour chart, which is similar, yesterday but this one seems to be a better fit.

GVI Forex Blog 14:04 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   

Lack of Economic Reports Shifts Focus to the Dollar

GVI Forex Blog 14:02 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   

U.S. Dollar Hits 15-Month Low on Prospect of Lower Interest Rates

Singapore PW 13:43 GMT November 11, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4975 Target: 1.5055 Stop: 1.4935

Just on case while i am sleeping order.

London HC 13:25 GMT November 11, 2009
Sterling Dives As BOE Welcomes Weakness

UK and US are also pursuing weak currency strategies under the guise of rebalancing their economies. The UK is more transparent while the US hides behind the strong dollar statements. US has more to lose as a reserve currency so has to make an appearance of responsiblityto defend its role.

Wall Street 12:58 GMT November 11, 2009
Sterling Dives As BOE Welcomes Weakness

HC- today's price action reinforces my view that the GBP is an inherently unstable currency. It seems like it always has been that way. This could be a consequence of its "post-reserve currency" status. Something like a dying star.

Why it matters is because that is where the USD is headed in the long term. In the short term, there are already way too many USD's sloshing around and there are many more being produced every day. In forex you never know the timing, but I expect the currency to become inherently unstable in the not-too-distant future. Then life will become interesting when the politicians step in and try to stop it.

GVI Forex john 12:11 GMT November 11, 2009
What's Your Best Trade?

We are very pleased with the acceptance of this new thread. We encourage EVERYONE to participate! Don't forget to include a SHORT rationale.

POST YOUR BEST TRADE

To grow as traders we all have to stick our necks out. Just use the trading template. Enter:
"buy or sell"
name your currency pair
entry level
target price
stop loss level

Add your rationale:

Examples:
chart formation
model
fundamentals
gut
whatever

We can GUARANTEE you are going to be wrong frequently. Everybody who trades is wrong a lot. That's how the true professionals learn humility. The idea is to keep your losses small enough so you can survive to trade another day. Its time for all of us to grow!

GVI Forex Blog 12:11 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 11-Nov-2009 - 1209 GMT

London HC 11:59 GMT November 11, 2009
Sterling Dives As BOE Welcomes Weakness

How many times can the market react to the same King comments on sterling depreciation? US and UK seem to be pursuing the same approach.

PAR 11:58 GMT November 11, 2009
GM
Reply   
More money for the comrades.


GMAC needs another cash infusion, Fed says
GMAC Financial Services, which has received $12.5 billion in federal aid, is negotiating for a fresh infusion of taxpayer funds because it has not raised enough capital t ...



Read more: http://www.autonews.com/#ixzz0WYF9uNDT

Syd 11:56 GMT November 11, 2009
Sterling Dives As BOE Welcomes Weakness
Reply   
Sterling has lurched sharply lower after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said in a press conference accompanying the BOE's quarterly inflation report that recent sterling weakness would be supportive to an export-led recovery.The weakness reflected expectations that U.K. interest rates will remain super-low for a long period, as well as investors' anxiety about the U.K.'s expanding debt burden, which could hamper the country's economic recovery.DJ

Haifa ac 11:54 GMT November 11, 2009
short eur gbp

9075 is a better stop
but it does not matter. As long as you trade with stops-- you will survive. gl.

PAR 11:48 GMT November 11, 2009
Higher Pay for the COMRADES
Reply   
GM's Whitacre urges U.S. to loosen executive pay caps General Motors Co. Chairman Ed Whitacre on Tuesday urged the Obama administration to give the automaker less restrictive pay caps and said it was too early to discuss timing to become a public company again. Whitacre, who became chairman of a reconstituted 13-member GM board when the automaker emerged from bankruptcy in July, also defended GM's decision to keep its European Opel brand.



Read more: http://www.autonews.com/#ixzz0WYCKPjML

chennai neo 11:40 GMT November 11, 2009
short eur gbp
Reply   
Sell eur gbp
Entry: 9020 Target: 8897 Stop: 9052

have taken a short.. any opinion on this plz lemme knw.. am new.. n fresh..

Haifa ac 11:40 GMT November 11, 2009
Lower Dollar

World abhores SOCIALIST DOLLAR.
As long as Socialist Obama and Socialist congress continue to demolish American economy and future-- world will spit on dollar.
Won't last too long , tho. Pelosi has had her Pirrhic victory 220-215.

GVI Forex Blog 11:35 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
The dollar hit a 15-month low against a currency basket on Wednesday after Federal Reserve officials said any recovery in the U.S. economy would be erratic, bolstering the view that interest rates would stay low.

FOREX NEWS-Dollar index hits 15-mth low, sterling falls on BoE

PAR 11:28 GMT November 11, 2009
Lower Dollar
Reply   
Dollar down after Geitners JOKES of Us wanting a strong dollar and is planning to reduce its deficits.



TOKYO (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Wednesday he believes strongly in the need to maintain a strong dollar and said the United States was determined to get its budget deficit down

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE5AA0HH20091111


Spotforex NY 11:18 GMT November 11, 2009
GBP

BOE quaterly inflation report intial headline was misleading...'raised' their inflation outlook...but sentiment was tempered in the details.....

dc CB 11:13 GMT November 11, 2009
GBP

between 10:30 and 10:35 GMT, 9600 BP futures contracts traded on Globex-CME. BP spiked and then dropped over 100

GVI Forex Jay 11:11 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

If you are looking for an explanation for today's spot price movies, take a look at the eur/gbp cross (see chart...

THREAD: The Importance of Crosses in Spot Trading UPDATED

GVI Forex john 11:06 GMT November 11, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support
Reply   

Forex Trading Discussion Points

Daily Edition-

11:00 GMT- TRADING SCENARIO: We feel that the risk scenario will likely be on for the rest of the year, even though the market is being cautious about it  Last weekend, the G20 gave the markets a green light to sell USD. The risk assumption scenario means using the USD to finance the purchase of currencies and other assets. This is a USD negative.

More

GVI Forex Blog 11:02 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
In Currencies: USD was a touch softer against the European and commodity related currencies as the risk appetite theme remained in play after a slew of Chinese data released during the Asian session a rebound in Japan machinery orders. Fed's Fisher benign neglect of the USD

Forex Blog - European Market Update: Perceived USD "benign neglect "further aids global risk appetite; Spot gold hits fresh all-time highs above $1,115/oz; BOE quarterly inflation report...

GVI Forex Jay 10:57 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Learning And Education Forum

The following discussion took place on GVI Forex last night and is worth reading as this is a case where fundamentals...

THREAD: Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders UPDATED

Maribor 10:44 GMT November 11, 2009
GBP

My best guess is that there were some sweet stop orders to trigger....but GBPJPY shall return to 151,3, so as good soldier Svejk would say: "No panic"...

Belgrade Knez 10:39 GMT November 11, 2009
GBP


Two happenings at the moment in UK:

BOE Gov King Speaks and

BOE Inflation Report

I believe this is what has cause that move.

london hmk 10:39 GMT November 11, 2009
GBP/USD

1/10/2009 19:44:54 wfakhoury Amman 4
GBP/USD sell 16730-40 tp 16660 sell another if rise at 16790-80 if rise b4 tp the exit both around 16720.


also well dooone wfak thks
=====

empoli (Italy) ab 10:38 GMT November 11, 2009
inflation report
Reply   
BoE report puts 2y CPI below tgt around 1.6% with current QE; shows GDP growth at 3.75% in 2 yrs. GBP$1.6751 - 10:33 UBS FX Market Update


possible QE expansion i suppose

empoli (Italy) ab 10:36 GMT November 11, 2009
GBP/USD
Reply   
GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

11/10/2009 19:44:54 wfakhoury Amman 4
GBP/USD sell 16730-40 tp 16660 sell another if rise at 16790-80 if rise b4 tp the exit both around 16720.


well dooone wfak thks

Hong Kong JC 10:35 GMT November 11, 2009
GBP

now is only 1.6698

Hong Kong JC 10:33 GMT November 11, 2009
GBP
Reply   
what happen to GBP again, suddenly rose to 1.6770, then dropped back to 1.6720

sofia kaprikorn 10:30 GMT November 11, 2009
MADCHARTS HAZING GAZING

RF.

mate, post some charts if you please - curious what's your rationale..

Viet Nam Forex Begin 10:27 GMT November 11, 2009
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Reply   
Buy USD/JPY
Entry: 89.92 Target: 90.22 Stop: 89.62

Today, GU and EU seem to be up continuously.

H1 show the downtrend, but H4 show uptrend.

Follow me, after adjusting to down 10 - 20 pips, they will be continue up.

30 pips Daily - Wednesday, 11 November 2009 10:26 GMT

empoli (Italy) ab 10:21 GMT November 11, 2009
11/11/09 11:30 UK Inflation Report

no problem at all John, it was just to know as think that s todays most important driver for the mkt i think.
thks to u for correction

GVI Forex john 10:16 GMT November 11, 2009
11/11/09 11:30 UK Inflation Report

ab- countdown clock corrected. Got caught in time change adjustment. Please accept our apologies.

London Misha 10:06 GMT November 11, 2009
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Inside Day/Spinning Top & possible also a Double Top on the Daily Chart!
USDJPY - Inside Day/Spinning Top on the Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - Possible Hammer on the Daily Chart!
USDCHF - Inside Day/Spinning Top & possible Double Bottom on the Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Nearing Long MA support! Possible Shooting Star on teh Daily Chart!
EURJPY - Possble Spinning Top on the Daily Chart!
AUDUSD - Break above 2009 high! Looking for two close over for confirmation!
NZDUSD - Doji on the Daily Chart!

empoli (Italy) ab 10:03 GMT November 11, 2009
11/11/09 11:30 UK Inflation Report

in fact but if u see at the countdown above has been reported 11,30 i/o 10,30.
Or am i wrong ? meant the countdown has to be back by 1 hour

Amman wfakhoury 10:03 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

EUR/JPY sell 2 lots 135.40 tp 134.50 stop 135.65

THREAD: Wfakhoury sys calls UPDATED

London M 09:59 GMT November 11, 2009
11/11/09 11:30 UK Inflation Report

Hi Empoli

Bank of England quarterly inflation report is always released since 1993 on the 2nd Wednesday in Feb, May, Aug and November each year at 10:30am

empoli (Italy) ab 09:53 GMT November 11, 2009
11/11/09 11:30 UK Inflation Report
Reply   
Jay/John excuse me but are sure IR will be out at 11,30? in all sites i m finding will be out at 10,30
thks and correct me if i m wrong pls

HK [email protected] 09:48 GMT November 11, 2009
MADCHARTS HAZING GAZING
Reply   
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: ~1.5040 Target: 1.4375 Stop: 1.5090



Remember my simple faithful triangle predicting 1.5040 about.
Now lets try something else more bold.

GL/GT

NEXT

BUY EUR/USD at 1.4375 target 1.52++

empoli (Italy) ab 09:36 GMT November 11, 2009
uk unemployment
Reply   
UK 3-month To September ILO Jobless Rate At 7.8%, Consensus 8%
UK October Claimant Count Rises 12.9K, Consensus 20K Rise

sofia kaprikorn 09:26 GMT November 11, 2009
USD Index - Double bottom?



haifa

I'm sorry. I used yesterday's chart and didn't pay attention to the Lows in detail..

here is today's chart and it obviously breaks OCt lows75.10 - seems trend is going intact to test those 72 lows you mentioned

Cyprus GLF 09:26 GMT November 11, 2009
Oil Remains Flat While Gold Continues to Rise
Reply   
The Dollar was relatively unchanged across the board yesterday with the DXY managing to stay afloat above 75 despite testing support just south of 75. The Pound suffered a minor setback in its race to break resistance when Fitch, a rating agency, said the U.K economy stands in line to potentially be downgraded.

Global Equity Markets were flat as the DJIA average closed the U.S session up 20 points to 10,246.97. There is a holiday in the United States today, so trading across the board we anticipate will be lighter. Oil was flat on the day currently at 78.85 while Gold continues to climb currently at 1,108.65.

The economic data released are again light today with most release coming from the U.K reporting. The U.K will release their quarterly inflation report although there is nothing to suggest any real surprises will show. With the Pound retreating after testing resistance there is more room to the downside with a quite market today and given the U.K has the most data releases due out.


Upcoming Forex Events for November 11, 2009

GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus Forecast 1.60% Previous 1.60%
GBP BOE Inflation Report
NZD Retail Sales (MoM) Forecast 0.50% Previous 1.10%
AUD Employment Change Forecast -10.00K Previous 40.60K

Cyprus GLF 09:25 GMT November 11, 2009
Range Trading versus Trading in Trending Markets
Reply   


GBP/USD:

Perspective is quite valuable regardless of what instrument or product you trade. Your forex trading style will vary when range trading versus trading in trending markets. The Chart below is a monthly candle on the GBPUSD. Notice the tight range the Pound has been trading in since the end of May. This is shown by the orange rectangular box. Take note of the strong move down that preceded this period.

For those forex traders that pick entry points based off of Moving Average crosses, then this is a pretty significant cross that just took place. On the Chart we have a 5, 10 and 15 MA using a monthly tenor. The 5 MA which follows price closest is in purple on top. The 10 you would expect to see next when price is appreciating, however, in this case it just crossed back above the 15 indicating that a bullish run has returned.

To put some perspective on this, these Moving averages have not been in this order since early 2008 around the time the Cable was at its all time high against the greenback. The first confirmation of a long term run up in price would be the breach of the next level of resistance at 1.7045. Of course MA can always cross back, but using a monthly tenor provides quite a confirmation.

USD/JPY:

The Greenback has replaced the Yen for the carry trade. Like most other currencies we are at key levels here once again. If we can close above 92.20 we will have completed an inverse head and shoulders as depicted on the graph.

However, we are far closer to testing resistance at R1 with a handle of 88.30. If we breach that, we would expect to move a full figure lower and test R2.

Syd 09:22 GMT November 11, 2009
USD More Likely To Break On Downside -- Calyon
Reply   
The DXY falls to a new 15-month low of 74.774 as the USD fails to capitalize on bad news elsewhere. "We retain our view that if there is to be a break-out, it is more likely to be in the direction of USD weakness," says Calyon.

Haifa ac 09:18 GMT November 11, 2009
USD Index - Double bottom?

???
Double bottom is around 71.50

Lahore FM 09:18 GMT November 11, 2009
Trade Ideas

11/09/2009 13:48:12 FM Lahore 14
11/05/2009 14:48:30 FM Lahore 18

Buy Dec Oil
Entry: 80.08 Target: 82.00 tentative for part Stop: 78.50
long now.looking to t/p at 82.00 in part rest towards 85.


11/05/2009 13:42:11 FM Lahore 19

Buy Oil/Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
both headed higher.gold for 1100 and oil for 82.00 imho!
--
gold longs half out at 1107.60 for 16.60 dolls.oil was stopped for minus 1 doll and 58 cents.

stops for remainder gold long at 1095.00 now.
--
rest of gold long out now at 1115.65 for 24 dolls 68 cents in all.
interestingly oil still lagging and trading same prices while gold up 25 dolls.

Ormond beach AG 09:17 GMT November 11, 2009
GOld Spike
Reply   
Sell GOLD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Shorted Gold at 1116. will cover at 1105

Lahore FM 09:12 GMT November 11, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy usdcad
Entry: 1.0456 Target: open Stop: 1.0410

2nd long in with a stop.

sofia kaprikorn 08:55 GMT November 11, 2009
USD Index - Double bottom?
Reply   


There is widespread media speculation going on with the state of the USD as a reserve currency.
From IMF officials stating it's still overvalued to smart speculators looking for a bounce on the notion of the overstretched USD sellers' Open Interest in the CME futures positions.

Here is a purely technical picture: there is potential for a Double Bottom IF the 74.80 level holds - it's where last month we had a bounce. However the trend channel (green lines) is still down and intact after the Resistance trend line held the spike to he 50-Day MA.

The Volatility measured by the ATR has been very low since August '09 - and that implies trend continuation. Fundamentally while there was so much negative talk about the economic recovery we have seen all major indices and commodities relentlessly rise. That means we must go with the flow until we have a signal or proof of turning point.

chennai neo 08:32 GMT November 11, 2009
good luck
Reply   
Buy gbp usd
Entry: 150.50 Target: 151.39 Stop: 149.85

this is what i have taken..shud be a hit in a while last time us shut down... eur n gbp hit the top notch.. so am expecting the same today

Amman wfakhoury 07:52 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

EUR/JPY sell now 134.97 tp 134.50 stop135.30

THREAD: Wfakhoury sys calls UPDATED

Syd 05:09 GMT November 11, 2009
Fitch: Further Stimulus Could Hurt UK Rating
Reply   
he United Kingdom's sovereign credit ratings could suffer if the government introduces another sizeable stimulus package, a senior official at Fitch Ratings said Wednesday.

"The U.K. has the largest fiscal adjustment challenge" among countries with triple A ratings, "and I see more pressure and more potential risk to U.K.'s ratings" than to those of its counterparts, Fitch's Group Managing Director David Riley told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview in Seoul.

However, Riley that Fitch considers a new U.K. stimulus package "unlikely." DJ

Syd 03:57 GMT November 11, 2009
DJ Geithner: Deeply Believe Strong Dollar Very Important For US
Reply   
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Wednesday that he believes maintaining a strong dollar is "very important" for the country's economy.

"I believe deeply that it's very important for the U.S. and the economic health of the U.S. that we maintain a strong dollar," Geithner said at a roundtable discussion with Japanese reporters.

GVI Forex Blog 03:48 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 11-Nov-2009 - 0339 GMT

Syd 03:26 GMT November 11, 2009
South Korea On Alert For Retaliation After Naval Clash
Reply   
SEOUL (AFP)--South Korea's military was on alert Wednesday for any retaliatory moves after a North Korean patrol boat was set ablaze in a naval clash, as Washington warned Pyongyang against escalating tensions.Defense Minister Kim Tae-young ordered army, navy and air force commanders in charge of border areas to step up surveillance and respond immediately to any provocation, a spokesman for Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff said.Military sources quoted by newspapers in Seoul said one North Korean sailor was killed and three wounded in the brief but fierce exchange of fire on Tuesday. The defense ministry said it could not confirm the figure. No South Koreans were injured.

Analysts were undecided whether the North deliberately ordered a patrol boat across the border to raise regional tensions before Obama's visit, or whether a lone commander was at fault.

Seoul said the North's boat ignored five warnings to turn back and then opened fire at a South Korean boat which had fired a warning shot. One or two South Korean boats then returned fire.North Korea's military, however, told South Korea to apologize for a "grave armed provocation" and said Seoul's ships had opened fire while its craft was north of the border.
The top presidential aide for security affairs, Kim Sung-hwan, told Yonhap news agency Wednesday there were no signs of preparations for any revenge strike.

"But the North may take its time, waiting for the best chance for retaliation. We're taking countermeasures," he said.

Cross-border tensions have been high for more than a year and the North has also angered the international community with missile test-launches and a second atomic weapons test. The United Nations tightened sanctions in response.

GVI Forex Blog 02:21 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Last week we noted the violent moves in the equity and currency markets and questioned whether this was an indication of us being at a tipping point or a Pause...

The Pause that Refreshed

FW CS 02:12 GMT November 11, 2009
trap?

Maribor

I noticed that too it seems like most traders are skeptical of this Euro rally so to me that says Euro up more from here maybe to 1.55-1.60 zone in the next month as this wall of worry continues.

Syd 02:04 GMT November 11, 2009
Rising Inflation Threat Seen In South Asia - World Bank Economist
Reply   
WASHINGTON (AFP)--Rising inflation is posing a threat to South Asia, with the situation most worrying in the Maldives where a foreign currency black market has emerged, a senior World Bank economist has warned.

Noting that the median inflation rate in South Asia was more than twice that of Latin America and the Caribbean, economist Eliana Cardoso asked whether policymakers in the region should be concerned "and wonder whether they are doing something wrong."

Syd 02:03 GMT November 11, 2009
China Jan-Oct Crude Oil Output 157.94M Tons, Down 0.5% On Yr
Reply   
China Jan-Oct Crude Oil Output 157.94M Tons, Down 0.5% On Yr
China October Crude Oil Output 16.25M Tons, Down 1.8% On Yr
China January-October Urban FAI Rise Slows
China October PPI Up 0.1% Versus September
China Oct PPI Down 5.8% On Year; Market Expected Down 5.1%
China October Non-Food Prices Down 1.6% On YearChina October Food Prices Up 1.6% On Year
China October CPI Down 0.1% Versus September
China Oct CPI Down 0.5% On Year; Market Expected Down 0.4%
China January-October Retail Sales Up 15.3% On Year
China October Retail Sales Up 16.2% On Year
China January-October Industrial Output Up 9.4% On Year China October Industrial Output Up 16.1%; Expected Up 15.5%
China Jan-Oct Urban FAI Up 33.1% On Yr; Expected Up 33.5%

HK [email protected] 01:50 GMT November 11, 2009
Hmmm ONLY FOR THE MORNING
Reply   


.

Maribor 01:44 GMT November 11, 2009
trap?
Reply   
Most traders are short and shorting EURUSD and GBPUSD; so it does not go down as for each short there is one long-boyz are buying and do not want to lose money... Traders will stop out if price rise 300 pips, so that may(or may not) be immidiate future...
GBPJPY still has to reach 151,3 and AUDJPY ~86 and GBPUSD has to reach 1,6442 somehow-and may be wrong.

Syd 01:35 GMT November 11, 2009
Banks bill seeks to strip Fed of powers
Reply   
An influential US Senate committee has proposed a sweeping overhaul of the country’s regulatory architecture that would strip powers from the Federal Reserve and create a single banking regulator.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fd843acc
-ce13-11de-a1ea-00144feabdc0.html

HK [email protected] 01:33 GMT November 11, 2009
AMERICA WILL RISE AGAIN
Reply   
Fischer talks down previous day IMF ideas.

Looks like G.S are now USD long in most fronts, and one may join them.

Maybe they are the Indians on the horses encircling the bulls stuck in their B.S, mentioned in my Y.day post(10:09 Nov10) and the hunt may begin soon on all fronts.

THUS:
Keep your US$, because America will rise again:)))

Syd 00:39 GMT November 11, 2009
Fisher: Is Watching 'Carry Trade' For Disorderly Influence
Reply   
Fed's Fisher: Worried About Unintended Risks Of Very Low Rate Policy

Syd 00:35 GMT November 11, 2009
*DJ Fisher: Unemployment To Be A 'Vexing' Problem For Economy
Reply   
Fisher: Growth To Close 2009 Strong, 2010 And 2011 Likely Tepid
Fisher: It Will Take Time For Growth To Generate Job Gains
Fisher: Would Welcome Banks Lending More Of Their Reserves Fisher: Deflationary Impulses Outweigh Inflationary Pressures Fisher: Inflation Likely To 'Remain Subdued'
Fisher: Rate Policy Appropriately Tied To Economy's State Fisher: Monetary Policy Outlook Depends On Economy Fisher: FOMC, Others Could Arrest Disruptive Carry Trade

tokyo ginko 00:12 GMT November 11, 2009
Iran lost it'electromagnetic eyes(for the back of your brain only)

President Ahmadinejad, this is probably your last chance to buy your cheap put option on EUR/USD, spot now at 1.5

GVI Forex Blog 00:07 GMT November 11, 2009 Reply   
Yellen: Jobless recovery possible Lighter U.S. holiday liquidity tomorrow German fiscal situation to improve BoE quarterly inflation report tomorrow

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (10 November 2009)

 




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