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Forex Forum Archive for 11/17/2009

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.

dc CB 23:51 GMT November 17, 2009
this is of course Options expry week. Tues are "traditionally" the pivot day. ie: do we go higher into thurs/fri or do we sell off.

Today's movement came from lower than avg. volume (NYSE 956, vs. closing avg of 1242; Nasdaq 1882, vs. 2312)

this is very indecisive. Goes along with Bobl's comments from GVI, that maybe the best bet is no bet. Sidelines?

UB JT 23:43 GMT November 17, 2009
Robot settings help

Entry: Target: Stop:

maybe short term bullish next bearish

dc CB 23:39 GMT November 17, 2009
Robot settings help
Mon was Whip
Tues was Saw
Is Wed Whip or continuation of Saw or is it full on WhipSaw.

Please help :)

GVI Forex Blog 23:38 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   

Equity Markets Eke Out Small Gain in Choppy Trade

GVI Forex Blog 23:38 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   

U.S. Dollar Finishes Higher in Choppy, Two-Side Trade

sofia kaprikorn 23:35 GMT November 17, 2009
Gold < -> currencies
Gold trends starts to shape as a developing vertical acceleration.

At the same time Majors vs USD are holding steady and even as today have their hard time range trading. It seems the contemporary correlations are stating to fall apart and new trends soon to follow.

Syd 23:35 GMT November 17, 2009
AUD/USD: Sovereign bids touted at .9200/15; heavy stops below .9200; barrier protection at .9450 light and .9500 heavy.
EUR/JPY: bids 132.00/10, stops below 131.75, bids again 131.00 with heavy stops below 130.40.

GM's Opel Restructuring Plan Stays in Flux
GM to cut 10,000 jobs in EuropeLINK

A Dollar Warning From Asia
Federal Reserve officials sometimes sound as if their only worry is the domestic U.S. economy, but their gusher of dollars is starting to have serious consequences for the rest of the world. Nowhere is this more evident than in Asia, where President Obama is getting an earful from leaders this week about what all those greenbacks are doing to their economies.LINK

Eurogroup’s Juncker: Euro has not reached problematic level yet
Moody’s says Paris’s borrowing plans “weaken but don’t threaten” France’s AAA rating.

Toronto EDP 23:32 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

An unanswered question seems to be "Which is the best broker" to use with the Metatrader platform. However, there...


sofia kaprikorn 23:24 GMT November 17, 2009
interesting with this dnt talk - we saw eur/usd trade 1.4807 low and now would be logical to assume we will try the other side

dc CB 23:04 GMT November 17, 2009
sign of the times

there were several people in Frederick Md who were "let go" because they opposed GWBush. The owner of the business where they worked was very a pro Bush Republican.

it's just more of the same, different faces same game

GVI Forex Blog 22:57 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
US wholesale prices rose 0.3% in October, a figure that was about half the consensus forecast. The rise follows a 0.6% decline in producer prices in September. Low inflation readings will...

FX Times: Fundamental Updates, US Data Round-up: Inflation, Production and Capital Flows

GVI Forex Jay 22:55 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

This is a recent post from the Forex Forum on an MT4 issue and I am reposting in the Meta Trader thread. Please...


Lahore FM 22:35 GMT November 17, 2009
Trade Ideas

Sell epz9
Entry: 1107.25 Target: open Stop: 1112

sold after getting stopped twice over a week.

Lahore FM 22:30 GMT November 17, 2009
Trade Ideas

aud,cad and nzd still looking soft despite historic gold prices and robust stox gains.

Lahore FM 22:28 GMT November 17, 2009
Trade Ideas

Sell gbpusd
Entry: 1.6806 Target: 1.6300 Stop: 1.6844 bid

entered a tentative short.

GVI Forex john 22:26 GMT November 17, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Interesting Chart USDX (U.S. dollar index) vs. S&P. Note chart is the reciprocal of USDX so both lines are comparable.

GVI Forex Blog 21:56 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Canada's dollar closed lower on Tuesday but a backdrop of stronger equities and firm prices for key Canadian exports helped it reverse much of an earlier drop to its lowest level in a week.

Forex News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ ends weaker but comfortably off one-week low

Syd 21:31 GMT November 17, 2009
AUD/USD Likely Subdued; Watching Equities Richard Grace, head of FX strategy at CBA
AUD/USD starting out in Asia session buoyed by late strength in U.S. stocks. Richard Grace, head of FX strategy at CBA, says session ahead likely to be subdued due to absence of key data. Focus now on RBA board meeting Dec. 1, with markets uncertain if RBA will hike rates further. Grace says RBA can safely hike rates a further 25 bps as economy is strengthening and spare capacity will run short quickly as growth gathers momentum, emergency rate settings are not appropriate. Expects support at 0.9250 and resistance at 0.9375. Now 0.9307.

Mtl JP 21:10 GMT November 17, 2009

indeed PAR. Nevertheless G/S deserves some kudos for pulling off such a scam. Stopping the talk of the great ideology of the free market won' t be easy coz it is part of the sell's pablum, keeping the crowd calm and moving on about its own business without nasty thoughts, let alone pounding on the castle's doors with pitchforks and torches.

Propaganda is an art. And the artists have so-far been pretty skilled. No blood yet in the torrents some on the forum have been predicting on streets sofar, be it on WS or Main St.

GVI Forex john 21:06 GMT November 17, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Forex Trading Discussion Points

Daily Edition for 17 November 2009

20:00 GMT- TRADING SCENARIO: There has been talk all week of a double no-touch (DNT) option at 1.4800 to 1.5100 in the EURUSD. Market chatter is that it runs off on Friday and that it is being protected by a player with deep pockets. The range trading has sent many traders to the sidelines over the past few days. 


lkwd jj 21:05 GMT November 17, 2009
sign of the times
firefighter in hot water over decal

Hartford, CT - Firefighter Mike Di’Giacomo said his SUV is banned from in the firehouse because the bumper stickers he has on it, displays his political views.

Di’Giacomo said he has never run into a problem like this in the 10 years he has been with the department.

The bumper stickers read:

Somewhere in Kenya, a village is missing its idiot

I’ll keep my guns, freedom and money. You keep the change

Obama Bin Lyin. Impeach Now

Syd 20:59 GMT November 17, 2009
Russia Won’t Diversify Currency Reserves, Kostin Says
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Russia is unlikely to change the structure of its reserves from dollars and euros even as currencies including the yuan gain more importance in regional trade, VTB Group Chief Executive Officer Andrei Kostin said.

GVI Forex Blog 20:54 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Trichet talks up US$ EUR falls sharply Fujii talks down economy U.S. PPI tepid

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (17 November 2009)

PAR 20:50 GMT November 17, 2009

Indeed, what you do and what you say depends on where you sit . But lets stop talking about the great ideology of the free market economy when a couple of oligarchs decide .
This is privatise profits and socialise losses.

Mtl JP 20:44 GMT November 17, 2009

PAR 20:01 - had there been a systemic collapse, maybe 99% of members on this forum would have kissed their accounts - and maybe more) good-bye.

so maybe Jill' s and the rest of our progeny (aka "the government") will pay for the indiscretion, but IF it comes to making a choice between your (and mine) account being wipped out vs spreading little pain accross little time accross the vastness of a nation, which would the greedy in you prefer ? and had you been Paulson, Geithner or Bernanke at that time: which would you have tended to chose ?

lkwd jj 20:39 GMT November 17, 2009
they are laughing all the way to the bank, after making the feds look like a bunch of fools.

Blankfein Apologizes for Goldman Sachs Role in Crisis

By Christine Harper and Matt Townsend

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Lloyd Blankfein, chairman and chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., apologized for the firm’s role in some of the activities leading to the financial crisis.

“We participated in things that were clearly wrong and have reason to regret,” Blankfein, 55, said at a conference in New York hosted by the Directorship magazine. “We apologize.”

Goldman Sachs, the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, had a record profit in the first nine months of this year and set aside $16.7 billion for compensation expenses. The money accrued for bonuses, enough to pay each employee $527,192 for nine months, has fueled criticism because it comes one year after the firm received federal bailout funds.

The firm is “very concerned” about the criticism because “our reputation is very important to us,” said Blankfein.

“I don’t love it, we kind of sigh,” he said of the criticism. Instead of responding directly to critics, the company instead had tried provide “the kind of constructive suggestions that people would think a Goldman Sachs would be able to come up with.”

Blankfein said he thinks the firm’s clients understand the firm and “our market share is doing pretty well, holding up, people understand our bona fides.”

Goldman Sachs repaid the $10 billion it was given last year under the taxpayer-funded Troubled Asset Relief Program, plus dividends. The firm continues to benefit from federal guarantees on about $21 billion of long-term debt. It was allowed to become a bank holding company to gain Federal Reserve support and was one of the biggest recipients of funds through the government bailout of American International Group Inc.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christine Harper in New York at [email protected] Matthew Townsend in New York at

NYC ET 20:30 GMT November 17, 2009

PAR, low volume in stocks

PAR 20:25 GMT November 17, 2009
Looks like some high frequency trades and some moc buy orders will sent Dow to new record high for the year. Ihis will sent Us dollar down.

Maribor 20:24 GMT November 17, 2009

SFH, maybe whole Ponzi banking system may fall to knees...

London SFH 20:08 GMT November 17, 2009

no doubt about it-had AIG been allowed to fall Goldman and others would have gone too

PAR 20:01 GMT November 17, 2009

Jill Schlesinger

TARP Audit Finds Geithner Gave Away The Farm
When Geithner/Gazoo says, "Hello Dumb Dumb," he's talking to us! The Great Gazoo shafted the US taxpayer in the AIG debacle and in the process, enriched the counterparties who dragged us into this mess. The SIG TARP report noted that "structure and effect of the FRBNY's assistance to AIG ... effectively transferred tens of billions of dollars of cash from the government to AIG's counterparties."

Oh, and remember all of those claims by Goldman Sachs brass that the firm had "perfectly hedged" its exposure to AIG? Not so fast, boys. According to the New York Times, "among its notable findings, the report challenged Goldman's position that it should not have been forced to bear losses on its dealings with A.I.G. because it had successfully hedged away any exposure. Mr. Barofsky said that Goldman's hedges were unlikely to have held up amid the market turbulence of late last year."

nyc ws 19:57 GMT November 17, 2009
1.4887 is 38.2% of 1.5016 to 1.4808

To / nada Dr Unken Katt 19:38 GMT November 17, 2009
Tomik are you around?

GVI Forex Blog 19:16 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Risk assets took a breather (S&P500 -0.3%) and the dollar caught a bid (DXY +0.7%) on US data softer than expectations and some hawkish Fedspeak. PPI and industrial production disappointed, capacity utilisation almost on consensus.

Forex Research - Morning Report

Syd 19:14 GMT November 17, 2009
AUD/USD dips after less hawkish than expected RBA minutes and the interest rate curve has shifted lower pricing in only a 50% chance of a 25bp rate hike in December notes Credit Suisse. The bank says the curve is now much more fairly priced and with AUD/USD trading this repricing surprisingly strongly it remains long of AUD/USD with a target of 0.96. AUD/USD now at 0.9306 from the day's high of 0.9376. DJ

Gen dk 18:51 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK [email protected] 18:51 GMT November 17, 2009
1.4750 is likely to follow next. A drop below 1.4700 is needed to confirm a steady downtrend.

Belgrade AS 18:50 GMT November 17, 2009

there it goes!

Hillegom Purk 18:45 GMT November 17, 2009

I use o*anda's gh and low of the day. Me thinks it is something between 22.00 pm one day till 21.59 the other day... But no day is the same so lotsa adjusting. Normally market dies just about now after touching the lows near 14806 today. Market tells me when to long or short in time.

PAR 18:44 GMT November 17, 2009

Higher US stock markets hurting dollar .

Belgrade AS 18:35 GMT November 17, 2009

eurusd is waiting for gbpusd to clear intraday(hourly)trendline resistance(1.6790)....with eurgbp glued to 8840,they gotta go up together

LA LA 18:34 GMT November 17, 2009

Where do you take the range from, the high for today or yesterday's close? In other words, yesterday's range was about 140 pips. Do you subtract 140 pips from today's high or Monday's close? What do you use for a stop.

Hope you don't mind the questions.

Hillegom Purk 18:25 GMT November 17, 2009

I wait until the range of for example yesterday comes near, wait a little for rallies, and than short or long. Today, i started the bigger positions under 14845. i double like every 10-20 pips, do not sh+it my pants, and close when i have 20-40 pips in total.

LA LA 18:17 GMT November 17, 2009

Purk can you explain that strategy?

Hillegom Purk 18:12 GMT November 17, 2009

Yes on the same pattern as yesterday. e/u long under the range of 120-150. clockwork.

Belgrade AS 18:10 GMT November 17, 2009

i came back from the dead in eursek....maybe that could count?

Miami JN 18:03 GMT November 17, 2009
Did anyone make money today?

I got stopped and ticks me off as I should have stop below 1.48 but too much for me to risk.

GVI Forex Blog 17:40 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   

EUR USD Trading Weaker as Trichet Talks Up Dollar

Belgrade AS 17:22 GMT November 17, 2009

yes LA.some 20 minute ago i posted it...together with my rationale

LA LA 17:20 GMT November 17, 2009

As did you go long euro?

PAR 17:20 GMT November 17, 2009
Rebound of Us stock markets killing mini Us dollar rally .

Belgrade AS 17:17 GMT November 17, 2009

1,48 , besides being a psichological barriere,it has a strong synergy of 50-day SMA and rising trendline
i'm a risk sensitive/commodity driven bear by nature,but in this specific case reality has to be accepted.

GVI Forex Blog 17:13 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   

December E-mini S&P Trading Lower but Remains Range Bound

Chicago CL 17:09 GMT November 17, 2009

hmk That would normally be true except in this case it appears an options holder is protecting that level.

london hmk 17:00 GMT November 17, 2009
not sure but it seems euro heading below 1.48 today

PAR 16:59 GMT November 17, 2009
Sponsored Link:

Open Letter to Timothy Geithner: Is Your Nose Getting Longer?
Dear Treasury Secretary Geithner:

I noticed you recently told the Japanese press that you intended to maintain a strong dollar, and that the Obama administration would bring the U.S. fiscal deficit back to a “sustainable balance.”

Tell me, don’t you feel your nose extending like Pinocchio’s when you tell these fibs to innocent Asians?

Belgrade AS 16:56 GMT November 17, 2009
eur/usd low

Buy eurusd
Entry: 1,4815/20 Target: 1,4980 Stop: 1,4770

this eurusd low talk made do my homework....not too sure i got everything right,but this is how i see things...with reference to Jay's crosses thread!
EURGBP-100day(8840) is pretty much holding things together
EURUSD-1,48 is pretty much holding things together(good support)
GBPUSD-in the middle of nowhere...i have no clue what's next!
scenario#1) eurgbp and eurusd bounce up from these resistances...this means double sell gbpusd,right?
scenario#2) wave#5 in equities pulls up both eurusd and gbpusd...this will mean that eurgbp stay in place around 100day
either way,eurusd is supposed to go up...isn't it?...that's my play!

Viet Nam Forex Begin 16:53 GMT November 17, 2009
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Entry: 1.6776 Target: 1.6806 Stop: 1.6746

Tuesday, 17 November 2009 16:54 GMT

GVI Forex Blog 16:34 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
In FX trading, the greenback maintained a firmer tone against the majors in the New York morning following Fed Chairman Bernanke commentary yesterday on the challenges facing the US economy. Dealers watched

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

PAR 16:34 GMT November 17, 2009
Us a " state controlled economy "
America's Newest Land Baron: FDIC

ATLANTA -- In the waning days of the Great Recession, the federal government is still jumpstarting the economy and propping up financial markets.

It is also trying to sell Dresden Heights, a failed condo development on a noisy freeway ramp next to a Motel 6, a Waffle House and a Do-It-Yourself Pest Control.

For more than a year, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has been seeking a buyer for 36 partially built condos it inherited from a high-flying, short-lived Atlanta bank. The agency has been fending off vandals, haggling with architects and uncovering the developer's blunders, all in a bid to dispose of this condo project, just one of the 2,554 foreclosed assets dumped onto its books. "These are properties with a bad story," says Jim Gallagher, a senior official in the FDIC's Division of Resolutions and Receiverships. "What we're trying to sell is something that is rundown or not completed or has some property damage."

HK Kevin 16:27 GMT November 17, 2009
eur/usd low

For EUR long traders who think the bullish trend is still intact, a safe stop is 1.4740

GVI Forex john 16:22 GMT November 17, 2009
Best Trade

As I feared, the market has been testing the EURUSD downside. I guess we have found the vulnerable side of the market. the 1.4800 level looms as an impenetrable barrier.

London SFH 16:16 GMT November 17, 2009
eur/usd low

I think you are right CL -I dont fancy standing in the way of it either...

Chicago CL 16:15 GMT November 17, 2009
eur/usd low

Must be a lot of longs underwater and betting on 1.48 holding out of the options defense. Just imho

dc CB 16:14 GMT November 17, 2009
if you want to watch the grilling.
BofA Hearings

hk hk 15:59 GMT November 17, 2009
eur/usd low

Tku. using a 19 stop

SARGODHA ALI 15:57 GMT November 17, 2009
eur/usd low
it is 1.4823

London SFH 15:49 GMT November 17, 2009


empoli (Italy) ab 15:49 GMT November 17, 2009
hk hk 15:47 GMT November 17, 2009
eurusd: Reply
low in eurusd pls?

my platform says 1,4827

hk hk 15:47 GMT November 17, 2009
low in eurusd pls?

Belgrade AS 15:47 GMT November 17, 2009
that kind of day

equities need to complete a 5 wave is #4....maybe,picking it up from here (low1,48xx-eususd)is not a bad idea

GVI Forex john 15:45 GMT November 17, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

HIGHLIGHTS: In Europe, EZ Current Account and net investment inflow data will be released. These data rarely move the markets.

In North America, U.S. and Canadian CPI data are due. The Bank of Canada targets inflation. Both sets of data are seen likely to be tame. U.S. housing start and building permits are due as well. Later the weekly U.S. crude oil inventories will be released.

Upcoming Top Tier Releases:
CH- Trade
UK- Retail Sales
US- Weekly jobs, Philly Fed, LEI, Natural Gas



Sep Cur/Acct Eur


Last: -1.3b



Sep Inv Flows Eur





Oct CPI yy

Cons: 0.3%

Last: -0.9%



Oct BOC CPI yy

Cons: 1.7%




Oct CPI mm





Sep Bldg Permits





Oct core CPI





Sep House Starts





DOE Gasoline





DOE Distillate

Cons: -800K




DOE Crude Oil





DOE Cap Util



London Chris 15:41 GMT November 17, 2009
that kind of day
I have the feeling this is a day of constant bottom picking and then stop outs. Must be some real flows squeezing the specs today. Now the battle is to defend 1.48.

Belgrade AS 15:34 GMT November 17, 2009
What's Your Best Trade?

HK Kevin ,yes,been reading a lot since late summer how aud and nzd went away in their correlation to now it's more or less obvious why and how!australian economy proved to be in a very good state...another thing is the fact that russian cb,when is playing "friends" to euro-leaders and sells eur in an effort to weaken it-every time they sell eur into aud(into their reserves!!!!)
if/when this risk/carry slump is done and over with,going long audusd longterm is among my priorities...with 0.98/1,10 as targets(YES!0.98/'s not a "typo"!)

GVI Forex Jay 15:27 GMT November 17, 2009
What's Your Best Trade?

AUD/NZD daily chart - note the trendline break

sx Ted 15:23 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

Custom Indicators "Candle Patterns", "AudioPrice" and library functions for MetaTrader 4 are available for free...


GVI Forex Blog 15:01 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
The last two days have seen significant Fed speak regarding US equity markets and the USD. What have we learned from it?

The Fed likes Stocks...

HK Kevin 14:58 GMT November 17, 2009
What's Your Best Trade?

Belgrade AS 14:48 GMT, just to add one more supporting point. AUD/NZD test 1.2440 (the trendline linking May 19 and July 31) todan and hold. Prefer selll NEZ rather than AUD.
Just sold at 0.7458, stop above yesterday's high, t/p 0.7280.

Belgrade AS 14:48 GMT November 17, 2009
What's Your Best Trade?

Sell nzdusd(;ong term)
Entry: see original post Target: Stop:

well,after getting stopped out almost accross the board yesterday,with 0.7450 and 0.7500 offers in this pair triggered, it remains my favorite long-term play
in my logic,slump in risk appetite remains THE MOST direct fundamental scenario(almost an imperative,before sustainable growth can resume-longterm)-that will,obviously be far as NZD goes,it has weak fundamental foundation and in addition to this-central bank has vowed to hold its benchmark lending rate at its record low 2.50 percent until late 2010.
once risk/carry slump begins,i think mere profit taking will send this pair to 0,71...and it will only be a begining

GVI Forex Jay 14:46 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

Walsall, send me an EMAIL


walsall ms 14:44 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

also if any one can recommend a good broker. the system i am using is from fm and is a very very good one. he...


GVI Forex Jay 14:38 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

Are you looking for an EA system or a broker who offers meta Trader?


walsall ms 14:37 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

sorry. i was looking to set up a new account for meta trading with the help from fm (lahore). i am from the uk...


PAR 14:35 GMT November 17, 2009
There is no question that the effect of FRBNY's decisions -- indeed, the very design of the federal assistance to AIG -- was that tens of billions of dollars of Government money was funneled inexorably and directly to AIG's counterparties," the Office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program said.

Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and Wachovia got full value for their derivatives contracts with AIG, and taxpayers got the bill. In total, $27.1 billion of public money was transferred to companies that did business with AIG.

GVI Forex Jay 14:31 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

Can you be more specific by what you mean as "best one?"


PAR 14:30 GMT November 17, 2009
Spending other peoples money is great fun ?

Report: Tim Geithner Was A Complete Pushover When It Came To AIG

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York didn't even try to get a good deal for taxpayers when it caved to demands from AIG's creditors that they should be paid in full.

The new report from TARP inspector general Neil Barofsky explains how the New York Fed, then headed by current Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, essentially agreed that AIG's creditors should be paid 100 cents on the dollar.

From the Washington Post:

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, who was then the president of the New York Fed, concurred with advisers that it would be impractical to impose losses on AIG's counterparties and that they essentially should be paid at 100 cents on the dollar, the report by special inspector general Neil Barofsky states.

Barofsky said he undertook the report after 27 members of Congress asked him to review the basis for the payments and whether they were made in the best interest of taxpayers. The issue has caused consternation among lawmakers, who have repeatedly questioned why such vast amounts of money flowed with little transparency and without condition to AIG's creditors, which included some of the world's largest financial firms

walsall muktar 14:30 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

which is the best one?


GVI Forex Jay 14:26 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

Given that a lot of brokers offer Meta Trader, I thought it would be a good idea to start a thread so our members...


GVI Forex john 14:21 GMT November 17, 2009
What's Your Best Trade?


To grow as traders and to encourage discussions, we ALL must stick out our necks. USE THE TRADING TEMPLATE.
"buy or sell"
name your currency pair
entry level
target price
stop loss level

Add your rationale- very important!
Examples: charts, model, fundamentals. instinct, gut etc.

We can GUARANTEE you are going to be wrong frequently. Everybody who trades is wrong a lot. That's how we learn humility. Keep your losses small enough so you can survive to trade another day.

nyc 14:16 GMT November 17, 2009
weaker IP than expected

London Chartist 14:16 GMT November 17, 2009
chart points 1.48-1.50



GVI Forex Blog 14:14 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   

Strong Dollar Triggering Weakness in Equity Markets

GVI Forex Blog 14:13 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   

Oversold Technical Conditions Boost U.S. Dollar Overnight

Gen dk 14:07 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Learning And Education Forum

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system collects data for the United States on cross-border...

THREAD: Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders UPDATED

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT November 17, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Countdown to data @14:15 GMT

Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization

Definition: An index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities).

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

While the industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20 percent of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector changes in this index provide useful information on the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector provides information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation.

Wall Street 13:52 GMT November 17, 2009
Best Trade
Having a hard time figuring out what to do next. Bernanke nonsense took me out of my EURCHF long yesterday. Its looking to me like the markets may want to retest the downside of EURUSD, but nobody trusts the short side of this trade.

NYC JM 13:50 GMT November 17, 2009
paIN trade
I saw someone refer to today as a pain trade day. Maybe that is why it is quiet here and elsewhere.

nyc 13:31 GMT November 17, 2009
Tame headline PPI

GVI Forex Blog 13:31 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Now, those moves may not seem comparable, but in the world of currencies – especially emerging currencies – a 2% move in one day is impressive.

In One Emerging Currency, Volatility Counts for Something ...

GVI Forex john 13:08 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

Information becoming available over the past month continued to suggest that a recovery in the global economy...

THREAD: AUD, NZD, ZAR in depth thread UPDATED

Miami JN 12:56 GMT November 17, 2009
Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4860 Target: 1.4960 Stop: 1.4820

Leaving an order on bet range will hold

Bahrain 12:47 GMT November 17, 2009

Thank you for the information. Is anybody looking to buy eurusd against the defence of 1.48???

GVI Forex Blog 12:37 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 17-Nov-2009 - 1235 GMT

GVI Forex john 12:36 GMT November 17, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Earlier U.K. Inflation data. The BOE has signaled a temporary near term hike in prices...

London SFH 12:15 GMT November 17, 2009

This Friday...

London Misha 12:01 GMT November 17, 2009

Agree on this 100% - at threat!

GVI Forex Jay 11:58 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

Speaking of the 200 day mva, check out the eur/jpy chart. ...

THREAD: The Importance of Crosses in Spot Trading UPDATED

NYC JM 11:55 GMT November 17, 2009

Misha. If I can join in. The eur/usd 200 day mva is 1.3928 so not sure how this comes into play?

London Misha 11:53 GMT November 17, 2009

The only thing is that data sources are subjective in that many use only European & U.S. timezones & not Far East - price vendors also have different levels as well. Additionally, some use the 220 day Moving Average instead of the 200 day though I think the 200 is in the majority at the moment.

London Misha 11:50 GMT November 17, 2009


Long MA is the one most used by the whole market - the 200 day Moving Average.

Hope this helps?

Bahrain 11:47 GMT November 17, 2009
Does anyone know what day the eur 1.48-1.51 dnt option expires?

GVI Forex Jay 11:28 GMT November 17, 2009
This is from the RTRS recap just posted on our blog (see prior post for the link). It explains some of the reasons for GBP strength:

Sterling was well supported after UK inflation figures came in above forecasts, and on an Italian press report that Italian chocolate maker Ferrero might be considering an offer with friendly investors for an alliance with Britain's Cadbury

GVI Forex Blog 11:25 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
The dollar rebounded on Tuesday from Monday's 15-month lows after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made rare comments about the dollar, encouraging traders to trim longer-term bets against the currency.

FOREX NEWS-Dollar rebounds broadly as market digests Bernanke

London C 11:23 GMT November 17, 2009

Misha, can you be more specific by the long MA

GVI Forex Blog 11:19 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Currencies: The USD painted an initial mix picture against the major pairs on Tuesday but moved into positive territory as the day progressed.

Forex Blog - European Market Update: two-way risk returns to the market (Trade the News)

GVI Forex Jay 11:13 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

As a followup to a eur/gbp chart posted yesterday, the break of .8899 has seen this cross come close to its next...

THREAD: The Importance of Crosses in Spot Trading UPDATED

GVI Forex john 10:53 GMT November 17, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Forex Trading Discussion Points

Daily Edition for 17 November 2009

11:00 GMT- TRADING SCENARIO: Trading is off to a mixed start again today as it appears that dealers continue to lack much inspiration. The Bernanke comments on the USD yesterday in retrospect turned out to be mixed. Also it seems hard for many to accept that the economy moves a lot more slowly than markets and that U.S. interest rates will have to stay low for an extended period of time for balance sheets to mend themselves. As for the lead EURUSD relationship, it appears to be anchored below the 1.50 level for now. Strong forces must be at work in this pair. 


London Misha 10:52 GMT November 17, 2009

I think the action around the Long MA may have something to do with EURUSD action (for a change).

Gen dk 10:51 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London C 10:46 GMT November 17, 2009

There has been divergences over the past two days that are playing out today. I have not seen an explanation for the weak euro except the usual m&a, options, offers above 1.50. Then there are firmer jpy crosses despite the move up in equities yesterday. Either correlation rules have changed or markets will align.

sofia kaprikorn 10:39 GMT November 17, 2009

Misha and HT...

it is one of the best reasons we love trading - there is something great to learn everyday... especially when it comes to strange animals and their accessories..

Hong Kong Qindex 10:18 GMT November 17, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/GBP : Heading Towards 0.8823

As shown in the monthly cycle directional indicator the market is under pressure when it is rejected from [0.8906]*. The monthly cycle charts indicates that the bias is on the downside when the market closes below 0.8823 in the New York session. The initial weekly cycle downside targeting points are 0.8568 - 0.8781 - 0.8783. The weekly cycle normal lower limits are 0.8400 - 0.8636 - 0.8640.

EUR/GBP : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex Blog 10:04 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   
Fundamental Analysis, Australia • Tuesday: Reserve Bank's Board November Minutes (Text Report). • Wednesday: Westpac Leading Index (Previous 1.1%, Expected N/A).

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 17/11/2009

London Misha 10:03 GMT November 17, 2009

I have heard Candlesticks compared to many things but this one has widened my knowledge universe considerably!


London HT 09:59 GMT November 17, 2009

the usd/chf formation is similar to my mother in law.( black crow with a double bottom),,,,

London Misha 09:56 GMT November 17, 2009
EURUSD - Possible Double Top on the Daily Chart!
USDJPY - Possible Double Bottom on the Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Two White Soldiers on the Daily Chart!
USDCHF - Possible two Black Crows & also possible Double Bottom all on the Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Testing Long MA support (as others here have rightly pointed out!). Key Reversal Down on the Daily Chart!
EURJPY - Bearish Harami on the Daily Chart! Nearing Long MA support!
USDCAD - Possible Three Stars in the South & also possible Double Bottom all on the Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Possible Spinning Top on the Daily Chart. Second consecutive close over previous 2009 high!
NZDUSD - Possible Spinning Top on the Daily Chart!

HK [email protected] 09:49 GMT November 17, 2009
The US FED is not in a position to raise interest rates, but may put some limitations on banks liquidity. Is that possible this times?

tallinn viies 09:27 GMT November 17, 2009
moved my stop loss order lower under yesterday low. seems more consolidation needed before another push higher. target 1,5110 within next 24 hours. fwiw

UB 09:08 GMT November 17, 2009
small amount sell
Sell GBP
Entry: 1.685 Target: 1.681 Stop: 1.6890

good luck your trade, my friends

Syd 08:31 GMT November 17, 2009
EU’s Almunia says China accepts must rebalance economy and that some fx appreciation necessary – Paper

Lahore FM 08:21 GMT November 17, 2009
Trade Ideas

JPY looking intent on precipitating risk aversion trade!

Toronto MDunleavy 07:44 GMT November 17, 2009
Sell AudJsd

Sell AudUsd
Entry: 0.9394 Target: 0.9212 Stop: 0.9450

Bias: While 0.9284-0.9307 supports I look for gains back above 0.9404 and towards 0.9497

The underlying MT direction is bullish while the daily bias is bullish. Therefore the main risk is higher. Ensure that key supports levels hold. Note key resistance levels that would suggest continuation of the bullish move. Consider confirming this with a bullish set up pattern in price or an indicator. Only consider a possible larger reversal lower should key MT support break and is supported by a bearish set up in price or an indicator.[actionforex]

Syd 06:19 GMT November 17, 2009
BOE Sentance: Asset Bubbles No Big Concern -Bloomberg
Sentance: BOE Not To Consider Policy Tightening Yet-Bloomberg

Lahore FM 05:56 GMT November 17, 2009
Trade Ideas

post Bernanke USD selling has met with post RBA minutes buying.right now market neutral at best and looking to opt for direction.

UB 05:00 GMT November 17, 2009
small amount sell
Sell GBP
Entry: 1.6827 Target: 1.6770 Stop: 1.6880


FW CS 04:12 GMT November 17, 2009
Small amount of IMF gold bought
Mauritius Buys IMF Gold, Follows India as Metal Soars to Record Share Business Exchange
Facebook- Email - Print - A A A

By Sandrine Rastello and Kim Kyoungwha

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Mauritius followed India buying gold from the International Monetary Fund, prompting renewed speculation that other central banks will bolster their holdings as the precious metal trades near a record and the dollar slumps.

The Bank of Mauritius bought 2 metric tons for about $71.7 million, said the Washington-based agency, which plans to sell a total of 403.3 tons to shore up its finances. The Reserve Bank of India paid $6.7 billion for 200 tons earlier this month.

GVI Forex Blog 03:38 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 17-Nov-2009 - 0336 GMT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:16 GMT November 17, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : The bias is on the upside when the market is trading above the weekly cycle pivot center at 1133.0

Normal Lower Limits : 1049.0 - 1073.3 - 1073.6*

Lower Mid-Point Reference : 1081.6 - 1102.9 - 1103.3*

Weekly Cycle Pivot Centers : 1114.3 - 1132.5 - 1133.0*

Upper Mid-Point Reference : 1146.9 - 1162.0 - 1162.8*

Normal Upper Limits : 1179.5 - 1191.6 - 1192.5*

Hong Kong Qindex 02:55 GMT November 17, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market momentum is strong enough to trade above the barrier at 1153.4 - 1159.2 - 1161.7

Hong Kong Qindex 02:36 GMT November 17, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

Normal Lower Limits : 894.6* - 929.3 - 935.0

Lower Mid-Point Reference : 974.8* - 1023.2 - 1033.6

Monthly Cycle Pivot Center : 1055.0* - 1117.1 - 1132.1

Upper Mid-Point Reference : 1135.2* - 1211.0 - 1230.7

Normal Upper Limits : 1215.4* - 1304.9 - 1329.3

Remarks : The market is positive when it is above the monthly cycle pivot center at 1132.1.

Gold Coast RC 02:01 GMT November 17, 2009
Godwin Google fx trading robots reviews

Hong Kong Qindex 01:48 GMT November 17, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold (Weekly Cycle - Updated) : Resistance at 1202.4*

The critical level of the weekly cycle is located at 1122.6 - 1125.1. The odds are in favour of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above the critical level at 1125.1. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is rejected from the weekly cycle critical level. The weekly cycle charts suggest that the market can move easily between 1103.3 and 1162.8. The current expected trading ranges from the weekly cycle projected series are 1098.4 // 1103.3* -1108.3 - 1113.2 - 1118.2 - 1123.1* - 1128.1 - [1133.0] - 1138.0 - 1142.9* - 1147.9 - 1152.9 - 1157.8 - 1162.8* // 1167.7 - 1172.7 - 1182.6* - 1192.5 ... 1202.4* - 1212.3 - 1222.2*

Hong Kong Qindex 01:30 GMT November 17, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : A projected resistant range is positioning at 1186.0 - 1187.0.

Syd 01:27 GMT November 17, 2009
USD Index Suggests USD To Weaken Further - RBC
USD in weakening trend as suggested by USD Index, says RBC. USD Index falls below 74.75 overnight, which house says "would raise the risk of a disorderly decline in USD." Index now 74.836. FX players don't expect USD will get much support from anywhere for now as Fed expected to keep its rates ultra low for months, decreasing USD's appeal as an investment target. Some says high-yielding units such as AUD, EUR "safest bet" to go long. - RBC

Syd 01:26 GMT November 17, 2009
RBA On Track For Dec, Feb, March Rate Hikes - ANZ
RBA's minutes give no hint central bank looking to stop its process of removing stimulus, but reinforces gradual approach to tightening, with 25 bps hikes in each of December, January and March likely, says ANZ economist Alex Joiner. Says inflation pressures will likely be RBA's biggest concerns. "They are on track for another move in December, the (October) labor force figures probably cemented that for us."

Hong Kong Qindex 00:48 GMT November 17, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : The market is now working on the barrier at 1139.9 // 1154.0. The weekly cycle normal upper limits are 1179.5 - 1191.6 - 1192.5. The weekly cycle initial upside targeting points are 1146.0 - 1162.0 - 1162.8.

Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts

HK [email protected] 00:41 GMT November 17, 2009

One should watch if our faithful triangle has set a reference target or a limit on Euro rise(possible double top).

Syd 00:34 GMT November 17, 2009
RBA Minutes: More Hikes Needed, Pace An Open Question
Reserve Bank of Australia's November meeting minutes likely to leave financial market participants confused on question of whether RBA will raise rates at its December meeting. Board members expect further interest-rate adjustments likely appropriate over time but "pace of the adjustment remained an open question," RBA says. In considering pace of adjustment, board will be conscious of balancing risks, it says. On one hand, confidence could prove fragile, economic activity might slow more than expected as stimulus fades while rising AUD could constrain output, damp inflation. On other hand, "a lengthy period of rates at a very low level carried its own risks", RBA says. With two weeks until next policy meeting, data, sentiment and markets will likely be key in shaping December policy expectations. DJ

GVI Forex Blog 00:15 GMT November 17, 2009 Reply   

Petitioning China November 16, 2009


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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