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Forex Forum Archive for 11/18/2009

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:56 GMT November 18, 2009
Business leaders condemn the Government's legislation as 'frightening'
Reply   
Business leaders said the Government's finance-focused Queen's Speech amounted to a "legal minefield" that will damage London as a global economic centre.
The legislation outlined by the Queen was slammed as "mad" and "spurious" by one boss and greeted with dismay in the City where company executives, traders and lawyers said the proposals would be hard to implement. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6600442/Business-leaders-condemn-the-Governments-legislation-as-frightening.html

shanghai bc 23:27 GMT November 18, 2009
DJ Dollar Pegs Feed Fed-Fueled Bubbles In Asia

Syd 22:24 GMT November 18, 2009

The one trick pony disciples of professor Keynes live in China too..The well written script of reflate during recession and deal with it later and repeat the same old trick again..Then I am almost sure that the Fed boys and girls will be dying to see housing prices rocketing and car sales hitting roof at home like what is happening in China now..Life is always full of irony and unintended consequences..

GVI Forex Blog 23:21 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
St. Louis Fed's Bullard: rates unchanged until 2012? Mixed U.S. data EUR up sharply

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (18 November 2009)

Lahore FM 23:16 GMT November 18, 2009
Speculative USD Short Positions Remain High

JJ,i like gbpusd from the short side.your tech view is sound and so are your posts.you have become an asset here.

lkwd jj 23:08 GMT November 18, 2009
Speculative USD Short Positions Remain High

FM what do you think about cable? resell at the 50ma hourly chart is on my books.

Syd 23:07 GMT November 18, 2009
$
Reply   
Lahore FM 22:56 GMT yes my view too, just get the feeling people are winding down early to protect what profits they have, if it wasnt for the RBA meeting and the 50/50 expectation the aud would be back around 90 or below - feel we are going to see a few sharp moves in the next few weeks

Lahore FM 22:56 GMT November 18, 2009
Speculative USD Short Positions Remain High

Syd sounds believable...

Syd 22:50 GMT November 18, 2009
Speculative USD Short Positions Remain High
Reply   
Speculators have started covering US dollar short positions and selling Euro, AUD, NZD, CAD, and CHF long positions. The evidence is US dollar bullish.LINK

lkwd jj 22:49 GMT November 18, 2009
YOUR BEST TRADE

my rule with stops is: use them especially when you dont want to. my other rule is never double up to make back pips in half the distance. third is buy on way up and sell on way down. missed 2 trades first by 2 pips(yen) other?(gbp) by 15 today as i had sell limit in gbpusd and buy limit in usdjpy. at least 60-70 pips passed on as mkt moved while i just watched. you finally have it lined up and you swing and miss. lets see what thursday has to offer.

Syd 22:42 GMT November 18, 2009
S&P quits over ratings crackdown
Reply   
Two of Australia's largest credit rating agencies are preparing to pull out of the retail market before the introduction of new rules that would have forced them to pay compensation to retail investors for losses. AFR

GVI Forex john 22:42 GMT November 18, 2009
YOUR BEST TRADE
Reply   
Buy
Entry: Target: Stop:

POST YOUR BEST TRADE

To grow as traders and to encourage discussions, we ALL must stick out our necks. USE THE TRADING TEMPLATE.
Enter:
"buy or sell"
name your currency pair
entry level
target price
stop loss level

Add your rationale- very important!
Examples: charts, model, fundamentals. instinct, gut etc.

We can GUARANTEE you are going to be wrong frequently. Everybody who trades is wrong a lot. That's how we learn humility. Keep your losses small enough so you can survive to trade another day.

lkwd jj 22:28 GMT November 18, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
eurusd
Entry: 14960 Target: 14920 Stop: 14976

looking like s-h-s on 1 hr chart

Syd 22:24 GMT November 18, 2009
DJ Dollar Pegs Feed Fed-Fueled Bubbles In Asia
Reply   
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The undisputed culprit behind Argentina's devastating 2001 crisis was its rigid currency peg to the dollar.

It meant that its then-deflating economy was subject to the tight monetary conditions the Federal Reserve was imposing for reasons that had nothing to do with Argentina. Its domestic demand base and export competitiveness were choked off at the worst possible moment.Now, a country with far greater weight in the world economy faces a similarly mismatched monetary scenario, although with the opposite effect. By pegging the yuan to an ever-weakening dollar with near-zero interest rates, China is effectively importing the Fed's hyper-accommodative monetary policy at a time when its blockbuster growth demands a much tighter monetary framework.The yuan's dollar peg, more than China's fiscal stimulus or the presence of dollar carry trades--a strategy of borrowing in dollars to invest in higher-yielding currencies--explains why we're seeing early signs of an asset bubble. Just as the U.S. housing bubble was fueled by excessively low rates before its collapse in 2007, easy money from the Fed is behind a potentially unsustainable runup in Chinese stock and property markets.

"For an economy that is growing so rapidly, it is difficult to manage the inflation pressures that will ultimately arise if you are going to peg your currency to the monetary policy of another that, for different reasons, is extremely stimulative," said Peter Hooper, chief international economist at Deutsche Bank in New York.
Dow Jones

GVI Forex Blog 22:05 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Canada's currency fell for the second straight session on Wednesday after rising earlier in the session to nearly its strongest in about a month, reversing course when it failed to crack a key

Forex News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ knocked down as risk appetite evaporates

GVI Forex Blog 22:03 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
We established yesterady that the 1.0050 area to be support. If the market broke 1.0200 and stayed above, it would have had a chance to reach 1.0350. However, the bears defended this resistance and...

FX Times: Daily Technical Update USD/CHF Stalking Range Setup

Wall Street 21:58 GMT November 18, 2009
$

Syd- Yes they move a lot of money around. Its kind of hard to be nimble in a situation like that.

Syd 21:58 GMT November 18, 2009
aud $
Reply   
AUD was quite choppy during the US afternoon amid reports of real money accounts selling several of the commodity currencies. Some funds have November year-ends, so perhaps that is the catalyst to take chips off the table.

Syd 21:45 GMT November 18, 2009
$
Reply   
Wall Street 21:28 GMT fx concept have a mixed record , but when they get it right they are very right - lets hope this call is one of them as feel we need a bit of a jolt in the market before Christmas :-))

Wall Street 21:32 GMT November 18, 2009
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'

syd- for the sake of their investors, I hope these guys at Soc Gen are not wrong!

Wall Street 21:28 GMT November 18, 2009
eur/usd

I just read that John Taylor, who runs the largest Forex hedge fund has said today that the EURUSD is "fully priced". I'm not in the business of calling tops, but have wondered about the same thing recently.

In my opinion, when an instrument is in an up or downtrend, it has the "burden of proof" to constantly "prove" the trend.

Syd 21:20 GMT November 18, 2009
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'
Reply   
Société Générale has advised clients to be ready for a possible "global economic collapse" over the next two years, mapping a strategy of defensive investments to avoid wealth destruction. LINK

GVI Forex john 21:09 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support


Forex Trading Discussion Points

Daily Edition for 18 November 2009


20:00 GMT- TRADING SCENARIO: Forex markets finally came back to life on Wednesday. Although trading conditions were still difficult. Several noted that this was a headline-driven market. Early in the day, the latest BOE MPC minutes disclosed that there had been a three-way split on the latest vote to expand its quantitative ease. This news came as a surprise to the markets who had anticipated a unanimous vote. The headline weighed on the GBP.

U.S. data did not create much of a stir. However, the markets were awakened by a comment attributed to a regional Fed President. A wire headline reporting a speech by St. Louis Fed President Bullard stated that...

MORE...

Syd 20:23 GMT November 18, 2009
Eur/$, forming a longer term top....
Reply   
Longer term in eur/$, way back in March and the market just above the Oct 2008 low at 1.2335, said there was scope gains all the way back to the Dec high at 1.4715 (top of range) and even slightly above as part of a longer term period of wide ranging.LINK

Mtl JP 20:02 GMT November 18, 2009
FED

PAR what the US really needs to re-gain its footing on global stage is a smaller Federal Gov't. This would mean at least two competing currencies. To clip the Federales' financing wings of foolish meddling projects "that bind".

Don't hold your breath though, Washington does not have "voluntary" and "reduce" in its dictionary. So there is only one other path. It includes pain. Lots more pain. But also new opps for profits. Profits from the political class which is and will resist tooth and nail.

One of the keys to profits is to drop one's nostalgic attachments.

Gen dk 19:34 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Blog 19:32 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Risk appetite weakened slightly, with a nod to US house building data which was weaker than expected. The S&P500 fell soon after the open and is currently down 0.5%, although it does remain around the cycle highs, so

Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

PAR 19:31 GMT November 18, 2009
FED
Reply   
Lawmakers seek Fed audit after critical AIG report
Lawmakers demand audit, greater transparency from Fed after report criticizing AIG bailout

By Daniel Wagner, AP Business Writer
On 12:56 pm EST, Wednesday November 18, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A group of House Democrats are stepping up demands for greater transparency from the Federal Reserve after reports that the Fed mishandled the bailout of insurance giant American International Group Inc.

The group, led by Rep. Elijah Cummings, D-Md., wants a congressional review of the Federal Reserve system. They want to allow congressional audits of the Fed as part of financial rules being debated by the House Financial Services and Senate Banking committees, according to a letter Wednesday to the committees' chairmen.

"Real financial regulatory reform cannot occur without an examination into the structure" of the Federal Reserve system, the letter says.

Details on which banks benefited from AIG's bailout never would have become known without demands from Congress, and a recent report shows flaws in the Fed's structure as a regulator, the lawmakers write.

Syd 19:12 GMT November 18, 2009
DJ New Ratings Guidelines Could Spark Selloff
Reply   
Moody's revised guidelines for rating bank hybrids could spell trouble for bondholders. The change "may lead to isolated multiple-notch downgrades potentially exposing the affected securities to ratings-based selling," according to Barclays. Moody's ratings will no longer have gov't support cushions, but will be based on the Bank Financial Strength Rating. Other changes also apply, including case-specific and country-specific considerations, Barclays said. Any potential drop in ratings sometimes triggers a sell-off, but some bank hybrids could potentially drop from IG to JUNK ratings - forcing some holders to let go.

Syd 19:10 GMT November 18, 2009
REFILE-Euro fully priced, S&P 500 to top at 1120-FX Concepts
Reply   
http://in.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsU
S/idINN1811895220091118

Belgrade AS 18:52 GMT November 18, 2009
yes CL.that's what i'm betting on...since last mid-summer.....in August,i called it"september slump"(it never happened,as u know)...this fall,i call it "risk/carry trade slump"...and it just started,i think!
btw,"the market"(if you mean stox by it!) fells beaten down for weeks now...if you consider declining trendline in volume of trades...it repeatedly poked our eyes,screaming "risk aversion/trend reversal!!!!"

Chicago CL 18:43 GMT November 18, 2009
AS. The market feels beaten down and with US holiday coming up next week I wonder how much ammunition it has left in the tank. For your levels to materialize you would need to see a spike higher in risk aversion. Is that what you are counting on?

Belgrade AS 18:01 GMT November 18, 2009
CL/Chicago,
eurusd-1,48 is "baby target"...good for risk covering...big boy's (long term)targets are:1,4450/1,3750
gbpusd-rising trendline(daily)-1,6700 is good for risk covering(if entered after the news)....long,long term targets:1,6125/1,5725/1,5450....gbpusd could establish some kind of 400-500 pip range mid term....so could consider going out around 1,65/1,66 if you went for sort term profits!
nzdusd-see under "best trade"
audusd-don't mess around shorting this one!

Wall Street 18:01 GMT November 18, 2009
eur/usd
Reply   
I am wondering if EURUSD is running out of steam? Although there is the usual talk of seasonal (end of year) USD selling likely to emerge. Any thoughts?

Mtl JP 17:59 GMT November 18, 2009
what gives?

NYC ET 17:46 - 50/50 deal over two days of observation... like a weathercaster telling you 50/50 odds of rain (or sunshine). u d be better off NOT having that information.

suggestion: chuck it and look for some other signal.
OR give it more observations before you commit to a trade on it.

GVI Forex Blog 17:57 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   

Poor Housing Starts Weighing on Equity Markets

Chicago CL 17:50 GMT November 18, 2009
AS, what you target then on the downside?

PAR 17:50 GMT November 18, 2009
Bernanke has turned the FED into the worlds biggest hedge fund with positions so gigantic he is really afraid that an audit would show that the Fed is just another Enron or LTCM reporting profits while hiding losses .

Transparancy . Yes We Can

GVI Forex Blog 17:46 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   

EUR USD has Green Light to Test High for Year

NYC ET 17:46 GMT November 18, 2009
what gives?
Reply   
How do you figure this --

stocks up yesterday, eurjpy went down

stocks down today, eurjpy is up

Is this the new correlation????????????

Lahore FM 17:46 GMT November 18, 2009
eurusd and gbpusd

GB,thanx i would rather have the first call work for me.

Mtl JP 17:42 GMT November 18, 2009
PAR - At risk of total depression: Huffington umasks yet one more traitor of the people and shill for the "establishment"

Mel Watts (D-Bank of America) amendment to Ron Paul's proposal to audit the Fed.
AMENDMENT TO THE COMMITTEE PRINT OF
OCTOBER 29, 2009
OFFERED BY MR. WATT OF NORTH CAROLINA

-

Belgrade AS 17:35 GMT November 18, 2009
???
why would you fold "AA" pre-flop???....Miami must have had a cristal bowl when he called this...hours before we knew what's gonna happen.
my humble view is:moving stops above 5060 is THE move(re-raise!)
...just an oppinion,of course!

Zurich 17:32 GMT November 18, 2009
SNB

No forex comments

Zurich 17:28 GMT November 18, 2009
SNB
Reply   
SNB Hildebrand due to speak at top of the hour

Lahore FM 16:58 GMT November 18, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy usdmxn
Entry: 12.9744 Target: open Stop: 12.9000

long here on usdmxn with a tight stop.

Belgrade AS 16:54 GMT November 18, 2009
i also think they are due for another "wednesday"....but being a non-american i shoud probably keep my mouth shut!....could call me a "terrorist"...or something....hehehe

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz8wU9DdbqU

Mtl JP 16:44 GMT November 18, 2009
I am gald for you PAR.
--
Here is a drivel from ADL:
Rage Grows in America: Anti‑Government Conspiracies
-
Some of the plausible reasons I see for the "anti-government extremist" get air-time is that either we are truly on verge of some "new order" OR... that they are simply harmless and no threat to the establishment.

montreal taro 16:38 GMT November 18, 2009
gold

That's what I thought, by looking at the price. But I didn't want to assume!!

Thank you for the info.

Belgrade AS 16:37 GMT November 18, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
18 Nov 17:32:20 eurusd - this is either consolidation before even higher prices (triangle) or a shakeout and bull trap...keep that in mind
-------------------------------
something from my news stream...few minutes ago!
..."make or brake"-simple man would say!

Belgrade AS 16:29 GMT November 18, 2009
gold

hehe...don't worry Taro...we were all there at some point...
in the little window called "commodities/futures"...there's a line named"xau/usd"(xau=gold!!!!)...the number next to it is THE PRICE of gold(in usd)!...red/green arrows show u last move.....green=up/red=down
WHATEVER U DO,DONT TRADE IT TODAY!!!!

GVI Forex Blog 16:28 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Headline roulette is driving the price action this morning. The US housing data gave the dollar a brief reprieve from bearish momentum coming out of the European session.

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

GVI Forex Blog 16:27 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
HIGHLIGHTS: In Europe, Swiss Trade data are due early Thursday. Later U.K. retail sales data are always closely followed. They are seen improved. In North America, U.S. Weekly jobless claims are always closely followed as a leading indicator of the economy

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for November 19, 2009

GVI Forex john 16:24 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

HIGHLIGHTS: In Europe, Swiss Trade data are due early Thursday. Later U.K. retail sales data are always closely followed. They are seen improved.

In North America, U.S. Weekly jobless claims are always closely followed as a leading indicator of the economy. The Philly Fed Survey is also a key regional PMI index. Leading Economic Indicators are just a composite of data already released. Later, weekly natural gas inventories will be released.


Upcoming Top Tier Releases:
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8:15

CH

Oct Trade CHF bn

Cons:n/a

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9:30

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Last:+2.4%

9:30

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Cons:+0.5%

Last:+0.0%

13:30

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Wk Initial Claims

Cons:505K

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15:30

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McKinney 16:18 GMT November 18, 2009
The golden rule

USA ZEUS 18:54 GMT September 11, 2009
The golden rule
All things are cyclical, including the golden rule. Do not forget this as it is the theme of the future-

He who has the gold, rules.
/////////////////////

Why is everyone suddenly talking about gold, commodities and inflation?

montreal taro 16:13 GMT November 18, 2009
gold

Excuse my ignorance, I found the page, I didn't see gold, what am I suppose to be looking for ?

Thank you

PAR 16:11 GMT November 18, 2009
No problemas . I feel good . Stocks up , dollar down.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:06 GMT November 18, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : The market was rejected from the monthly cycle normal upper limits in its first attempt. The monthly cycle normal upper limits are as follow :


1153.4 - 1159.2 - 1161.7 - 1179.5 - 1191.6 - 1192.5 - 1198.9 - 1202.1 - 1215.4 - 1304.9 - 1329.3 - 1442.1

Belgrade AS 15:44 GMT November 18, 2009
gold

LINK
----------------------------------------
didn't give u link earlier...so sorrry...fogive me

London SFH 15:41 GMT November 18, 2009
gold


spot gold now 1150, close to all time high

Belgrade AS 15:39 GMT November 18, 2009
gold

i use this Swiss marketplace....use "market watch" window

Mtl JP 15:35 GMT November 18, 2009
PAR - u sound melancholic, maybe g-v FForum (trade ideas, presumably for making profits) wrong forum 4 u?

think: costs to some = revenue to some other.
thnk2: 0bama apparently close to deciding about in(de)crease/stay pat in afganistania



London Chartist 15:34 GMT November 18, 2009
eur/gbp
Reply   
.8923 38.2% of .9065-.8835
.8950 50% of .9065-.8835

London GB 15:30 GMT November 18, 2009
eurusd and gbpusd
Reply   
Lahore. Nice call on gbpusd.

eurusd still seems to getting some support out of eurgbp rebound as we all watch equities.

montréal taro 15:30 GMT November 18, 2009
gold
Reply   
Someone can tell me the gold price ? And a website where I can take a look ?

Thank you

PAR 15:29 GMT November 18, 2009
Is the American fiscal situation so much better ? Costs of the two wars are adding to the deficit every day .

GVI Forex Blog 15:24 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
“The Japanese fiscal situation is horrific,” said Richard Benson, who helps oversee $11 billion of currency funds at Millennium Global Asset Management in London...

Oh yen, we wonder when…

GVI Forex Jay 15:16 GMT November 18, 2009
Club GVI
Reply   
For those who were blindsided by the Fed's Bullard's comments on interest rates earlier, having access to news is invaluable on a day like today. As part of Club GVI membership, we have arranged for an extended trial for Trade the News and its 24 hour live news squawk box.

If interested in more details, send me an EMAIL

Belgrade AS 15:10 GMT November 18, 2009
ZERO INTEREST RATE

PAR,when your engine is gone/dead....gas stations can offer you money to take gas and it still will not make your car run again...translated in our FX world:risk/carry trade engine is gone/dead!!!!!....it would not metter now if interest rate is negative now!.....loses from risk are still looking to be biger then the bigest negative interest rate they coud come up with
it's over,man!

PAR 14:56 GMT November 18, 2009
ZERO INTEREST RATE
Reply   
Zero Interest Rates good for Wall Street . Bad for mainstreet as it drives up prices for the unemployed.

Belgrade AS 14:51 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

yeah,yeah....it took them 1 hour to come up with another "bubble blowing scam"...i had a time of my life imagining them biting their nails and inventing a new one...hihihi....it's a good one...again...isn't it?
BUBBLE POPPED!!!! disregarding this fact will not help your trading

GVI Forex john 14:43 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Headline a short while ago...
Fed's Bullard: Possible Fed Won't Hike Rates Until 2012

but

Bullard ACTUALLY said ""FOMC did not begin policy rate increases until 2.5-3yrs after the end of each of the past two recessions"

He never actually said 2012 for rate hikes.

Be careful of headlines!

PAR 14:43 GMT November 18, 2009
ZERO INTEREST RATES
Reply   
Rising fuel prices hit consumers
The government's key inflation measure came in higher than expected due to a 6.3% jump in oil and gas prices.

Belgrade AS 14:23 GMT November 18, 2009
GS

18 Nov 15:11:12 US Treasury Secretary Geithner says bank have 'obligation to help' communities and need to provide 'direct help' to small businesses.
----------------
no sh+it Sherlok!....we've been saying this for months!
...and what big bad volf(banker) does seconds after this?....he blows his(and Geithner) bubble even more!
well,you can blow all you want now,mister!

Mtl JP 14:19 GMT November 18, 2009
GS

PAR ... u r missing GS PR and propaganda skill and savvy..
harbouring hard feelings ?

PAR 14:11 GMT November 18, 2009
GS
Reply   
Give me $50 Billion and I ll give you $500 million back ( Most likely tax deductable ) . What a joke .

GVI Forex Blog 14:06 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   

Equity Futures Point toward Flat Opening

GVI Forex Blog 14:06 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   

Higher Equities and Commodities Drag Dollar Lower

sofia kaprikorn 14:05 GMT November 18, 2009
Vols Strat explanation
Reply   
just a word of appreciation for the explanations - great help for the learning person!

Belgrade AS 14:02 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

with all the bad mortages on existing homes,"shortage in supply" will not kick in before 2030...kidding,of course!
it's going to be a "double-dip" recession,after all!

PAR 14:00 GMT November 18, 2009
ZEO INTEREST RATES
Reply   
With CPI rising Real US Interest Rates are actually getting into negative territory Bernanke as so often in the past is wrong again. Hence the dollars perpetual decline .
Yes We Can.

GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support



Note the absolute level of housing starts in 2004 and 2005 vs. current levels. Is a shortage of supply developing? The drop off has been massive.

One final item about housing. These data are weak and housing traditionally leads the economy out of recession. Some say the Strarts figure may have been depressed by those waiting for the new housing incentive bill.

Belgrade AS 13:47 GMT November 18, 2009
cpi+housing

commodity driven are charging lower...thank dear God(im over-invested in my nzduds shorts!)

Belgrade AS 13:43 GMT November 18, 2009
cpi+housing
Reply   
Sell risk sensitive/usd
Entry: Target: Stop:


18 Nov 14:31:53 U.S.: CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ROSE TO 0.3% FOR OCTOBER FROM 0.2% THE PREVIOUS MONTH AMID EXPECATATIONS OF 0.2%
18 Nov 14:30:55 U.S.: HOUSING STARTS FELL TO 529K FOR OCTOBER FROM A REVISED 592K LAST MONTH AMID EXPECATIONS OF 600K
-------------------------------
well,they can stand in disbelief all they want!i'm selling my risk sensitive

PAR 13:43 GMT November 18, 2009
ZERO INTEREST RATES
Reply   
Zero Interest rates are bad for the economy .

It is like keeping a patient in an artificial coma if that goes on for too long the patient dies.
If zero interest rates stay on too long "Hank Paulsons" financial armageddon reappears.

GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support



U.S. CPI

Ath. L.K. 13:40 GMT November 18, 2009
DOW - S&P
Reply   
With weaker than expected data,stock must be in rally again!
Ha ha ha

Miami JN 13:37 GMT November 18, 2009
data
Reply   
Stocks seem to be shrugging off data

GVI Forex john 13:29 GMT November 18, 2009
kapricom- We are developing a section on the USDX. I am not a big fan of it because I feel it is too heavily weighted towards Europe (57.6% EUR). Add in GBP, SEK and CHF and you have 77.3% of the index. In essence the USDX is a rough proxy for EURUSD.

We are adding it because of interest from equity traders.

Belgrade AS 13:29 GMT November 18, 2009
finally they sober up!
Reply   
18 Nov 14:18:05 USA: Major daily papers are reporting that the House is working on a very large job stimulus bill, the form of which is still undecided
---------------------------------------------
finally!

GVI Forex john 13:23 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Countdown to data @13:30 GMT
U.S. CPI (see below) & Housing

House Starts/Permits

New Home Sales record sales of U.S. newly constructed residences. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes New Home Sales statistics monthly.

New Homes Sales, Starts and Permits

sofia kaprikorn 13:19 GMT November 18, 2009
john - hello sir!

DX: to me it looks like fake breakouts on the downside and the whole pattern resembles something I have seen in Stock chart manuals called Saucer bottom - looks to me the momentum of the trend move in DX is losing steam.

Lahore FM 13:18 GMT November 18, 2009
Trade Ideas

Sell gbpusd
Entry: Target: Stop:

a move under 1.6805 can put a short to medium term top on the pair.watching with sell bias.

GVI Forex john 13:06 GMT November 18, 2009
Note we have added the dollar index chart to our Daily Chart Gallery

USDX CHART

Lahore FM 13:03 GMT November 18, 2009
Trade Ideas

11/17/2009 22:28:03 FM Lahore 4

Sell gbpusd
Entry: 1.6806 Target: 1.6300 Stop: 1.6844 bid
entered a tentative short.
--
stopped at day high for minus 40.it does not get much worse than this.

PAR 13:03 GMT November 18, 2009
Geithner
Reply   
Paul AbramsPhysician, entrepreneur, biotechnology, law, economics, politics, professional iconoclast

Geithner Is "Obama's Rumsfeld": Replace Him With Robert Reich

The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves"--Julius Caesar, Act I, ii.

But for his personal tax problems, Tim Geithner would have been a consensus choice of Wall Street for Treasury Secretary last fall. As President of the New York Federal Reserve, he knew all the bankers on Wall Street. He was not only intimately involved with the bank bailouts, he now appears to have been the bankers' lapdog. He speaks fluent Chinese, helpful since China holds a huge amount of US debt obligations. Just months into the financial meltdown, avoiding Wall Street caterwauling about the Treasury Secretary-designate may have been a reasonable consideration for the incoming Administration faced with unprecedented calamities from 8 years of George W.

Yet, from the outset, Mr. Geithner's appointment compromised the Obama Administration-to-be's credibility on ethics. In order not to lose its first key approval, the President-elect had to swallow-hard and excuse his failure to pay social security taxes. That ethics problem was then compounded by Tom Daschle's failure to pay his taxes forced withdrawal of his nomination to be Health & Human Services Secretary.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/paul-abrams/geithner-isobamas-rumsfel_b_361431.html

Miami JN 13:01 GMT November 18, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
Sell eurusd
Entry: 1.4980 Target: 1.4895 Stop: 1.5020

US data trade and bet 1.5016 holds

GVI Forex Blog 12:39 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
The Dollar gained little ground today as it advanced versus its G-10 rivals. DXY support at 74.90 held firmly again today as the index gained before closing at the 75.303 handle.

Important Data Released from the US for Forex Traders

GVI Forex Blog 12:38 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
The Yen has lost ground to every other currency in the G-10 except the Dollar, since March of 2009.

USDJPY Has Lost Ground to Most

Gen dk 12:34 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Blog 12:18 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Fundamental Analysis, UK The UK National Statistics Bureau will publish the monthly Retail Sales measurement Tomorrow (Nov 19).

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/11/2009

GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support



CANADA

Consumer prices rose 0.1% in October compared with October 2008, following a 0.9% decline in September. This was the first 12-month increase since May 2009.

The rise in the all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI) was mostly due to less downward pressure from gasoline prices. Gasoline prices in October 2009 were 13.1% below the level in October last year, compared with a 23.0% drop between September 2008 and September 2009.

Energy prices fell 12.7% between October 2008 and October 2009, following a drop of 18.7% in September.Excluding energy, the CPI rose 1.4% in the 12 months to October, slightly higher than the 1.3% increase in September.

In October, six major components in the CPI recorded price increases. Higher prices were most significant in food, household operations, furnishings and equipment, and recreation, education and reading.

PAR 12:12 GMT November 18, 2009
Cost of wars in Iraq and Afganistan
Reply   
How are the costs of the wars in Iraq and Afganistan going to be paid and who will pay for it ?

sofia kaprikorn 12:03 GMT November 18, 2009
dnt

sofia kaprikorn 00:42 GMT November 18, 2009
dnt: Reply

structures resembling bull flags (white dotted lines channel) usually are good a few bounces which means we are in for a 1.4950-80 upside test tomorrow

...
well we saw the upside target - now it is important if we have an inside range day and rotation to the lower1.4848/68 range

Mtl JP 12:03 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

with FDIC demanding insurance premuim pre-payments from banks and the this other housing office (forget its accronym) being sub 3% reserve requirement housing can not be in an exited stage.

a positive reaction to some sunny Mortgage Statistics should be a reasonable R/R sell in "patience has its rewards" type trade.

GVI Forex john 11:53 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support

Countdown Clock data @ 12:00 GMT

Consumer Price Index (Canada)


The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as “core” inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.

Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.


Weekly Mortgage Statistics

Weekly Mortgage Statistics are released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Total mortgage applications are the headline figure. They are then broken down into (1) new mortgage applications and (2) refinance applications. Both items by themselves are more revealing than the total number. The latest 30-year mortgage interest rate is released as well.

IMPACT: These data provide an early read on the state of the housing market.

GVI Forex Blog 11:50 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 18-Nov-2009 - 1148 GMT

PAR 11:41 GMT November 18, 2009
Dow Priced in Gold
Reply   
Has the Dollar Been Debauched? (Hint: Check Out the DJIA Priced in Gold)

One of my favorite macro indicators is the long-term Dow:gold ratio. Rolph Winkler of Reuters blog Contingent Capital did the heavy lifting last week to produce a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average priced in gold per ounce since 1900:



The Dow:gold ratio is not everyone’s cup of tea. Paul Kedorosky likens it to measuring yo-yos in meerkats, but says it’s “semi-useful.” I agree. Several semi-useful observations that can be made from the chart include


http://seekingalpha.com/article/173936-has-the-dollar-been-debauched-hint-check-out-the-djia-priced-in-gold

GVI Forex john 11:40 GMT November 18, 2009
What's Your Best Trade?

POST YOUR BEST TRADE

To grow as traders and to encourage discussions, we ALL must stick out our necks. USE THE TRADING TEMPLATE.
Enter:
"buy or sell"
name your currency pair
entry level
target price
stop loss level

Add your rationale- very important!
Examples: charts, model, fundamentals. instinct, gut etc.

We can GUARANTEE you are going to be wrong frequently. Everybody who trades is wrong a lot. That's how we learn humility. Keep your losses small enough so you can survive to trade another day.

PAR 11:29 GMT November 18, 2009
US becoming Weimar Republic
Reply   
[Root causes of hyperinflation

Germany, 1923: banknotes had lost so much value that they were used as wallpaper.The main cause of hyperinflation is a massive and rapid increase in the amount of money, which is not supported by growth in the output of goods and services. This results in an imbalance between the supply and demand for the money (including currency and bank deposits), accompanied by a complete loss of confidence in the money, similar to a bank run. Enactment of legal tender laws and price controls to prevent discounting the value of paper money relative to gold, silver, hard currency, or commodities, fails to force acceptance of a paper money which lacks intrinsic value. If the entity responsible for printing a currency promotes excessive money printing, with other factors contributing a reinforcing effect, hyperinflation usually continues. Often the body responsible for printing the currency cannot physically print paper currency faster than the rate at which it is devaluing, thus neutralizing their attempts to stimulate the economy.[7][dead link]

Hyperinflation is generally associated with paper money because this can easily be used to increase the money supply: add more zeros to the plates and print, or even stamp old notes with new numbers.[citation needed] Historically there have been numerous episodes of hyperinflation in various countries, followed by a return to "hard money". Older economies would revert to hard currency and barter when the circulating medium became excessively devalued, generally following a "run" on the store of value

Gen dk 11:28 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Blog 11:20 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday as dealers took profit on the currency's biggest rise in three weeks the previous session and pushed the euro back to the middle of its range of the last fortnight.

FOREX NEWS-Dollar retreats, sterling slips after BoE minutes

walsall ms 11:13 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

i would like some help in finding a meta trading broker which allows me to trade size 0.01. looking to start with...

THREAD: Meta Trader UPDATED

GVI Forex Blog 11:02 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Currencies: The market has seen supportive comments for the dollar in recent session but verbal rhetoric alone will not change the sentiment. Specifically the trend seems likely to remain intact until Fed increases its rhetoric on a potential exit strategy.

Forex Blog - European Market Update: BOE members split three ways on quantitative easing measures (Trade the News)

GVI Forex john 10:40 GMT November 18, 2009
GVI Forex Trading Support
Reply   

Forex Trading Discussion Points

Daily Edition for 18 November 2009


11:00 GMT- TRADING SCENARIO: More information on the EURUSD double no-touch (DNT) option at 1.4800 to 1.5100 has come to light. It appears that it is being protected by an Asian central bank and that it matures on Friday. Nevertheless, forex trading seems to becoming back to life today. A BOE three-way split on the latest vote to expand Quantitative Ease came as a surprise to the markets and temporarily weighed on the GBP.

MORE...

NYC JM 10:39 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Systems Forum

The word "best" is a relative term as a lot depends on your individual needs. It is combination of factors that...

THREAD: Meta Trader UPDATED

Belgrade AS 10:31 GMT November 18, 2009
eur/usd low

thanks Jay...not too often do we get a chance for such an obvious win/win situation

Belgrade AS 10:22 GMT November 18, 2009
USD

thanks mate.i'm also working out "post-US data" scenarios to sell them against usd longterm

GVI Forex Jay 10:18 GMT November 18, 2009
eur/usd low

AS, well thought out trade.and good use of crosses in your analysis

London Misha 10:17 GMT November 18, 2009
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Possible Double Top on the Daily Chart!
USDJPY - Possible Double Bottom, Harami & a Bull Tweezer Bottom on the Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Bear Tweezer Top with a Doji on the Daily Chart!
USCHF - Possible Double Bottom with unlikely but possible Bull Mat Hold, all on the Daily Chart!
EURGBP - First close under the Long MA on this move. Open & Close Black Marubozo though currently looking like a Two Day Reversal.
EURJPY - Nearing Long MA support!
USDCAD - Shooting Star & a possible Double Bottom on the Daily Chart!
AUDUSD - Possible Bull Hammer on the Daily Chart!
NZDUSD - Bear Hammer on the Daily Chart!

Varna GV 10:16 GMT November 18, 2009
USD
Reply   
Buy USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Good work AS, buying USD against EUR and GBP for long term today!!!

Belgrade AS 10:08 GMT November 18, 2009
eur/usd low

Belgrade AS 16:56 GMT November 17, 2009
eur/usd low: Reply
Buy eurusd
Entry: 1,4815/20 Target: 1,4980 Stop: 1,4770

this eurusd low talk made do my homework....not too sure i got everything right,but this is how i see things...with reference to Jay's crosses thread!
EURGBP-100day(8840) is pretty much holding things together
EURUSD-1,48 is pretty much holding things together(good support)
GBPUSD-in the middle of nowhere...i have no clue what's next!
scenario#1) eurgbp and eurusd bounce up from these resistances...this means double sell gbpusd,right?
scenario#2) wave#5 in equities pulls up both eurusd and gbpusd...this will mean that eurgbp stay in place around 100day
either way,eurusd is supposed to go up...isn't it?...that's my play!
-------------------------
i took my profits in 50/55 area for +130/140 pip profit per fired unit....don't feel like babysitting it anymore
if anybody followed my last night's call,please note the change!

Toronto MDunleavy 10:04 GMT November 18, 2009
Sell EurGbp
Reply   


Sell EurGbp
Entry: 0.8900 Target: 0.8750 Stop: 0.8950

EUR/GBP
We can notice mixed direction signals on indicators and ADX shows that the trend is very week if we only take them into consideration. On the other hand, according classic analysis we can see a descending channel alongside the pair's steady trading below 61.8% extension makes us expect the pair to continue the bearish move towards 0.8820 at least and then 0.8790.
The trading range is among the key support at 0.8790 and key resistance now at 0.8975.
The general trend is to the upside as far as 0.8020 area remains intact with targets at 1.0000 followed by 1.0400 levels.
Support: 0.8820, 0.8800, 0.8790, 0.8720, 0.8675
Resistance: 0.8880, 0.8905, 0.8930, 0.8975, 0.9000
Recommendation: Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 0.8865 targeting 0.8790 and stop loss above 0.8905 might be appropriate[actionforex]

http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Jul-01/BJF-Trading-Group-091118eurgbp4h.xls

Belgrade AS 09:50 GMT November 18, 2009
BOE Minutes

together with better then expected CPI yesterday,this is GBP-very positive....next dilema is :will it move the market,or we all wait for US data (CPI+building/housing)?

empoli (Italy) ab 09:43 GMT November 18, 2009
BOE Minutes

BoE voted 7-1-1 for QE vs 9-0 cons; 7 backed GBP25bn rise, Dale no change, Miles GBP40 bn; decision on rates unanimous. - 09:32 UBS FX Market Update

Belgrade AS 09:41 GMT November 18, 2009
BOE Minutes

anybody has info on vote count?...pro25B/pro50B...significant number of doves in the rate-setting committee could spark a ridiculous selloff

Haifa ac 09:30 GMT November 18, 2009
Charting

CNBC???? how can you listen to that garbage?!

Mykonos Spiros 09:25 GMT November 18, 2009
Charting

You get the same result in Turksih Prison......

Lahore FM 09:24 GMT November 18, 2009
BOE Minutes
Reply   
Bank Of England minutes of last rates meeting out in 7 minutes.

turkiye 09:16 GMT November 18, 2009
Charting

what do you thibg about turkish stock markets

Syd 07:46 GMT November 18, 2009
Charting
Reply   
Euro-DollarLINK
Diversify and Invest Globally AUD/DLRLINK
Dollar to Enter a Different PhaseLINK

Syd 07:10 GMT November 18, 2009
China Rate Hike In 1Q Possible On Growth -Daiwa
Reply   
China could increase policy intrerest rate as early as 1Q next year, says Daiwa economist Kevin Lai after PBOC adviser Fan Gang says he expects China GDP growth at 8%-9% in 2010." The expected 8%-9% growth rate next year indicates China's economic recovery is on track and sustainable and there is room for rate hike at least four times in 2010," says Lai.

UB JT 06:20 GMT November 18, 2009
short term GBP analys plss
Reply   
GBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

short term GBP analys plss

Ho Chi Minh City VTS 04:57 GMT November 18, 2009
Oil

OIL
Entry: Target: Stop:

TAKE PROFIT. OIL NOW 80.

Syd 04:55 GMT November 18, 2009
China Faces Dangers of Asset Bubbles, PBOC Adviser Fan Says
Reply   
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- China is among the emerging markets facing risks of property and commodity market bubbles, central bank adviser Fan Gang said, joining officials from the region in expressing concern about surging asset prices. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anoYMJCWsjNY&pos=4

Syd 04:17 GMT November 18, 2009
The New Zealand dollar was trading lower late Wednesday in a listless market lacking drivers.
Reply   
Bank of New Zealand foreign exchange strategist Mike Jones said the U.S. dollar is finding support from safe-haven demand.

"A batch of soft U.S. data reawakened fears about the strength and durability of the global economic recovery," he said.

Ho Chi Minh City VTS 03:46 GMT November 18, 2009
USD
Reply   
US Dollar Recovers from 15 Month Lows as Risk Appetite Stalls, Fed Slowly Reins in Stimulus: There was little f.. http://bit.ly/38lwuj

GVI Forex Blog 03:41 GMT November 18, 2009 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 18-Nov-2009 - 0339 GMT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:37 GMT November 18, 2009
QIndex Trading System

EUR/GBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

USA BAY 03:21 GMT : The odds are good that the market will tackle the range 0.8765 - 0.8803.

dc CB 03:22 GMT November 18, 2009
Geitner's Song
Reply   
there's a bailout comin'

USA BAY 03:21 GMT November 18, 2009
QIndex Trading System

HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, Do you think we can see eurgbp testing 8790 in the next session. Tia

Syd 03:08 GMT November 18, 2009
aud $
Reply   
Japanese players at the Tokyo fix sold AUD . US real money name also joined them. If we break 9270 then its back to 9230-40. Longs are now offering at 9290-00 again ...

Hong Kong Qindex 03:00 GMT November 18, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : Daily Cycle Analysis

Daily Cycle Projected Series (1140.6) : ... 1099.9 - 1105.0* - 1110.0 - 1112.5 // 1115.0* - 1117.6 - 1120.1 - 1122.6 - 1125.1* - 1127.6 - [1130.1] - 1132.6 - 1135.2* - 1137.7 - 1140.2 - 1142.7 - 1145.2* // 1147.7 - 1150.3 - 1155.3* - 1160.3 ...


Daily Cycle Congested Area : 1078.4 - 1095.6 - 1112.9 - (1130.1 - 1147.4) - 1164.6 - 1181.9


Normal Lower Limits : 1099.9 - 1104.2 - 1104.6
Lower Mid-Point Reference : 1115.0* - 1121.7 - 1121.9
Daily Cycle Pivot Centers : 1130.1* - 1139.1 - 1139.3
Upper Mid-Point Reference : 1145.2* - 1156.6 - 1156.7
Normal Upper Limits : 1160.3 - 1171.1 - 1174.1

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is trading below *1130.1*.


Neutral Range : 1121.5 - 1161.7 (Buy at low and sell at high is the preferred trading strategy when the market is trading within the the neutral range. A stop and reverse order can also be considered).

Downside Targeting Points : 1123.0 - 1125.6

Upside Targeting Points : 1153.1 - 1155.2


Remarks : Targeting points are obtained from 3-day and 5-day projected series.



Supporting Barriers are *965.0 // 974.8

Supporting Barriers are 994.2 // 1005.9

Neutral Barriers are*1030.5 // 1055.0

Resistant Barriers are 1072.7 // 1096.1

Resistant Barriers are 1135.2 // 1161.7

Resistant Barriers are 1198.9 // 1230.7

Resistant Barriers are 1304.9 // 1442.1



Remarks : The market is working on the barrier at 1135.2 // 1161.7.



Daily Directional Indicator : 1114.3 - 1119.5 - 1125.6 - 1130.1 - 1132.5 - 1133.0 - 1137.3 - 1139.1* - 1139.3 - 1140.5 - 1155.2* - 1167.3


Daily Cycle Pivot Centers : 1130.1 - 1139.1* - 1139.3

3-Day Cycle Pivot Centers : 1119.5 - 1125.6 - 1167.3

5-Day Cycle Pivot Centers : 1137.3 - 1140.5 - 1155.2*

Weekly Cycle Pivot Centers : 1114.3 - 1132.5 - 1133.0


Remarks : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above *1133.0.

Syd 02:12 GMT November 18, 2009
aud
Reply   
AUD/JPY weakness likely due to investors' profit-taking amid lackluster Asian markets, say senior dealers at major banks in Tokyo

Syd 02:03 GMT November 18, 2009
$aud
Reply   
AUD Long market running into sellers above 9320 trader

Syd 01:28 GMT November 18, 2009
AUD/USD Classical
Reply   
AUD/USD – Remains very well bid on any form of a dip with the underlying structure still grossly constructive. The market has most recently broken to fresh 2009 highs by 0.9405 ahead of the latest minor setbacks. However, given the overbought weekly studies, we are not entirely convinced of the current recovery rally and would not rule out the possibility for a major double top formation with the market seen stalling now above 0.9400 and rolling back over through neckline support at 0.8905. The daily RSI has failed to confirm the latest bout of strength and we look for the latest break back below Monday’s low at 0.9315 to help reaffirm our outlook.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/aud-usd/2009-11-17-1003-AUD_USD_Classical.html

Hong Kong Qindex 01:27 GMT November 18, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : The market has picked up good support around 1124.8 - 1125.6. It will charge ahead towards the extreme range at 1162.5 - 1170.2. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 1147.5.

Syd 01:24 GMT November 18, 2009
Australia Q3 wage price index rises 0.7% QoQ
Reply   
Risk Appetite Close To Short Term Peak? -Westpac

Australia’s Q3 wage price index rose 0.7% in Q3. This was as expected. Annual wage inflation eased to 3.6%, the slowest pace since 2004, from a revised 3.8% in June.

dc CB 01:01 GMT November 18, 2009
Word Play
Reply   


NewsHour report on the increased use of food banks by middle class americans.
New Word/Phrase introduced to describe the problem - Food Insecurity! Aldous would be proud.

Denver AL 00:44 GMT November 18, 2009
Videos
Reply   
Click on tuesday
EUR/USD Video
GBP/USD Video

sofia kaprikorn 00:42 GMT November 18, 2009
dnt



here is a 4H chart - we see progressively lower lows / lower highs - however price is confined within 1.5050 - 1.48 range last 2 weeks.

structures resembling bull flags (white dotted lines channel) usually are good a few bounces which means we are in for a 1.4950-80 upside test tomorrow - downside should be protected around 1.4815/05 if the dnt holders wanna get paid.

SF WM 00:31 GMT November 18, 2009
Stox

I believe US stocks have been up 9 of past 10 days

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
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Mon 27 May 2019
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