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Forex Forum Archive for 03/02/2009

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Tallinn viies 23:47 GMT March 2, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
SW - you are optimist :)
of course it requires balls to call a bottom in place when DJIA closed at 12 year low.

usually it is common for major lows there are huge daily moves and huge come backs. didnt see it today...

US SW 23:38 GMT March 2, 2009
eurusd

Today...I'm calling the Bottom for the Bear RUN on the US stock Market....with the Greenback at 3 year highs and the market at 1980's LOWS this is telling me that Most Skeptics are not aware that the Bottom is in......

Syd 23:35 GMT March 2, 2009
GBP/JPY May Stay Weak; Big Players Short -Dealers
Reply   
GBP/JPY trading quietly for now after overnight tumble, but may remain weak as big players like sovereign names go short, say several dealers at major banks in Tokyo; now at 136.20 and some say it may fall to 135.50 soon. One dealer says "players remain very pessimistic about banks in the United Kingdom and players are betting the Bank of England will cut rates further."DJ

Tallinn viies 23:24 GMT March 2, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
US SW 23:09 GMT - what do you call capitulation?

Syd 23:24 GMT March 2, 2009
Greenberg, who claims he incurred hundreds of million of dollars in losses on the securities when AI
Reply   
Former American International Group Inc. (AIG) Chief Executive Maurice "Hank" Greenberg has sued the company, alleging securities fraud tied to misrepresentations of billion of dollars in losses on the company's portfolio of credit default swaps.

US SW 23:09 GMT March 2, 2009
PARTY IS OVER
Reply   
CAPITULATION has been done to MAX PAIN

Bilad KaL 21:58 GMT March 2, 2009
KaL's Auto Trades

Just placed some orders

EUR/NZD 2.5367 Buy
USD/CAD 1.2882 Buy
EUR/CAD 1.6172 Buy
GBP/JPY 137.418 Sell
NZD/USD 0.4969 Sell
EUR/USD 1.2635 Sell
GBP/USD 1.4164 Sell
for next day

Tallinn viies 21:48 GMT March 2, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
euro is looking really bad again. good opportunity to bet on breaking lower is using overnight options insteed of using spot.
O/N ATM Put costs approx 50 pips. fwiw

GVI Forex john 21:39 GMT March 2, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Data Preview…
Far East/Europe- AU- Current Account- closely watched- no estimate.
AU- Retail Sales- closely watched- no estimate.
AU- RBA Policy decision- important- expect -25 to -50bp cut. Some talk they pause.
CH- Feb CPI- important- SNB targets CPI at below 2.0%
U.S. data Zone…
Tuesday (GMT)
North America- CA- BOC decision- Important- cut of -50bps expected to 0.50%
U.S.- Pending Home sales- watched- forecaster of Existing Homes sales one month in advance.

0:30	AU  4Q  C/Act A$bn	Cons: n/a	Last: -9.74
0:30	AU  Dec Retail Sales	Cons: n/a	Last: +3.8%
3:30	AU  RBA RBA (3.25%)	Cons: -50bp	Last: -100bp
6:45	CH  Feb CPI mm	        Cons: n/a	Last: -0.8%
6:45	CH  Feb CPI yy	        Cons: n/a	Last: +0.1%
14:00	CA  BOC Rates (1.00%)	Cons: n/a	Last: n/a
15:00	US  Jan Pend Home Sales	Cons: -3.0%	Last: +6.3%
17:30	US  US  Geithner	Cons: n/a	Last: n/a

lkwd jj 21:36 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

sold this one twice for a total of 36 pips as mkt hasent been giving more unless the entry/exit were perfect at high/low. waiting to see the floor drop out from underneath but so far no such luck. last nights lows below 97 were well defended during the day. your thoughts?

Syd 21:35 GMT March 2, 2009
New credit threat to banks
Reply   
BAD debts and the global downturn are threatening the credit ratings of Australia's Big Four banks, while new figures show business profitability is suffering its biggest fall in almost two decades. As Wayne Swan warned that the severe economic downturn faced by Australia's trading partners represented a threat to growth, and the share market tested seven-year lows, credit ratings agency Moody's yesterday issued a warning on three of Australia's biggest banks.

It said the AA1 ratings of the Commonwealth Bank, Westpac and the ANZ were no longer secure. Moody's move follows a similar warning late last year for the National Australia Bank.
LINK


GVI Forex john 21:27 GMT March 2, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

NEW! GVI Forex Chart Gallery. Printable FX Charts

Click for Complete Chart Points

2-Mar-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.2572

97.72

1.1771

1.4040

1.2882

High

1.2632

97.91

1.1796

1.4289

1.2897

Low

1.2546

96.92

1.1636

1.3967

1.2728

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.2717

97.67

1.1688

1.4272

1.2601

10 day

1.2698

95.65

1.1686

1.4310

1.2578

20 day

1.2802

93.27

1.1641

1.4410

1.2464

50 day

1.3180

91.53

1.1340

1.4467

1.2326

100 day

1.3096

93.57

1.1526

1.5010

1.2299

200 day

1.4073

100.20

1.1109

1.6998

1.1353

Syd 21:21 GMT March 2, 2009
Rate cut likely as report raises fears of recession
Reply   
If the September and December quarters both record negative growth, it will mean Australia has been in an official recession for more than half a year.A separate report by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Australian Industry Group showed the manufacturing sector slid further in February.Link


Foreign raiders threaten banksThe big four banks are attractive targets for short sellers because their share prices are in the world's top 12 for banks.

A serious decline in their share prices would be of great concern to the Government, which has touted the resilience of the banks to bolster domestic confidence during the global recession

lkwd jj 21:17 GMT March 2, 2009
mkts
Reply   
feels like fx is caught between a rock and a hard place. buying usd for safe haven? govt debt will make used toilet paper more valuable eventually. like 2 kids on the block. "my govt can print more than yours".

Syd 20:48 GMT March 2, 2009
Euro set to fall further on EU split over eastern Europe bail-out
Reply   
The euro is set to fall further against the dollar as investors become increasingly concerned about the unwillingness of European Union countries to act together to tackle recession.The pound may also drop further against the dollar as a result of the crisis in some eastern European economies, Mr Stannard said, because large British and European banks were among the biggest lenders to the region during the boom years. LINK

I buy now are from shops like Primark'

Syd 20:32 GMT March 2, 2009
White House Pledges Steps To Avoid Economic 'Catastrophe'
Reply   
The White House said it hopes American International Group Inc. (AIG) won't need any additional lifelines from the government beyond Monday's $30 billion bailout but vowed to do whatever it takes to avoid a collapse of the financial system. "The president said that we'll take steps to ensure that there's not an economic catastrophe," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Monday. "We certainly hope that it is ... that it is the end, but understand that Treasury is undergoing the process of evaluations to bank health. You know, I think one of the things that's important is to adequately diagnose and understand what risks are out there and the size and the scope of those risks." DJ

London FT 20:10 GMT March 2, 2009
More Gloomy Headlines
Reply   
More gloomy headlines from the FT:

BofA chief calls Merrill aid ‘mistake’
Stock markets tumble on new bank fears
Dow below 7,000, FTSE at six-year low
AIG hit by record $61.7bn shortfall
Worst year for dividend cuts since 1938
HSBC plunges after £12.5bn rights issue
Nortel doubles quarterly loss in bankruptcy
Freddie Mac chief executive quits after six months

Syd 19:19 GMT March 2, 2009
UBS May Be Next Big Investment Bank To Pull Out Of NZ - Report
Reply   
Troubled Swiss banking giant UBS AG could be the next big international investment bank to pull out of the New Zealand market, Dominion Post reported Tuesday

NYC ET 18:51 GMT March 2, 2009
stock market
Reply   
Seems to be a lot of complacency with today's equity fall.

USA BAY 18:35 GMT March 2, 2009
QIndex Trading System

HONG KONG QINDEX.

Dr Q, Could you please comment on usd/cad and eur/gbp please. Thanks

GVI Forex Jay 18:22 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

Day is not over yet but this daily forecast so far turned out to be a good sentiment indicator today. It showed a bearish bias but eur/usd holding above the key 1.25 level and in a range. Median rate was 1.2589. Click on the subject link to see the full thread.

Lahore FM 17:28 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

03/02/2009 14:38:56 FM Lahore 7
long gold 941.70,stops later.
--
clsoed 940.90 for minus .80.keeping 933 long for the run up.

LA LA 17:14 GMT March 2, 2009
Waiting
Reply   
Why so silent? Is it the weather in NYC or waiting to see if stocks can bounce?

isr jweb 16:26 GMT March 2, 2009
sell euro

i beleive euro is almost ready to tread lower waters

Hong Kong Qindex 16:17 GMT March 2, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell DJIA
Entry: Target: Stop:

DJIA : The market may go all the way down to 6635 - 6690.

Lahore FM 16:05 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

02/26/2009 16:12:43 FM Lahore 24

02/26/2009 14:18:26 FM Lahore 4
thanx Kapri,and looking to any rise in silver to fail as well and drop to 13.10 area first and then lower.
--

02/18/2009 21:41:56 FM Lahore 80
sold silver 2nd position 14.34.
--

that was fast enough to 13.10.closed 14.34 in 1/2 here at 13.10.stops to entry on rest.
--
rest of 14.34 short silver out at 13.85 for 149 cents in all.

Lahore FM 15:58 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

small short usdjpy 97.61,stops 98.40.

Tallinn viies 15:57 GMT March 2, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
ISM PMI better than expected but still very weak...
BUT still showing that America will recover first (ok, maybe behind China) and this should be good for stocks which will drag eurusd also higher :)

Lahore FM 15:56 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

03/02/2009 15:40:10 seek hong kong 3
follow u FM..small buy 933
--
cheers!!

Lahore FM 15:54 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

2nd long gold 933.90.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:53 GMT March 2, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell DJIA
Entry: Target: Stop:

DJIA : Heading Towards 6790


The current expected trading range is 6790 - 7056. The market will challenge the critical supporting range at 6723 - 6742.

singapore rs 15:46 GMT March 2, 2009
audusd
Reply   
i think audusd will trade under 0.61 by wednesday!

hong kong seek 15:40 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

follow u FM..small buy 933

Bkk bounbough 15:22 GMT March 2, 2009
Serious CAD
Reply   
Interesting moves. It was SLAM CAD ping pong with the 1.28 level as piggy in the middle.
CAD will suffer as lond as energy prices stay weak.

NYC 15:14 GMT March 2, 2009
eurusd

Tallin, the ISM # does not reflect a recovering economy. Still at very depressed level and employment fell.

Bkk bounbough 15:12 GMT March 2, 2009
AIG
Reply   
LOL then they will ask for a 50 yard bailout and merge with themselves by creating a subsidiary called FUN (short for funnel).

GVI Forex john 15:07 GMT March 2, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

ISM PMI better than expected but still very weak...
Refresh to update chart..
EZ/US PMI mfg


tallinn viies 15:04 GMT March 2, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
good ISM gives euro more strength to move higher

Bkk bounbough 14:57 GMT March 2, 2009
Classic bull trap
Reply   
Watch DIJ take out sell stops at 7,000 to move lower. Ah it gets old doesn't it?, and yet traders still falling for it. Its a kind of vanity to run after sudden market moves. I was prone to it myself. I am reminded of a wave that breaks on the shore and then retracts back into the sea taking pebbles with it, only to be wash upfront again. Then after all the confusion, if we wait, the tide moves it our favor if we can just ignore the whiplash. Hence, the best trades made are the ones where (after setting your stop loss) you disbar yourself from the computer for a few days after entry.


Punta Cana bonbon 14:49 GMT March 2, 2009
AIG bail out

next quarter they will challenge 100 bio loss :) and maybe heading for $1 trillion loss for the whole year :) hahahahhahahahahahahahha

Bilad KaL 14:43 GMT March 2, 2009
USDCAD
Reply   
USDCAD is serious

3/2/09 10:47 AM 1.2919 1.2780
3/2/09 1:21 PM 1.2924 1.2783
3/2/09 4:42 PM 1.2930 1.2787
3/2/09 8:50 PM 1.2936 1.2792
3/3/09 1:45 AM 1.2942 1.2798
3/3/09 6:40 AM 1.2947 1.2805
3/3/09 11:35 AM 1.2952 1.2812

Might see 1.32 in 2 days

Lahore FM 14:38 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

long gold 941.70,stops later.

Bkk bounbough 14:28 GMT March 2, 2009
DJI looks doji
Reply   
Nice if you are short the spy. No major support until 6,000 is done. Then its back to the endless 80s levels when 4,000 on the DJI looked healthy.
Happy Trades!

singapore rs 14:26 GMT March 2, 2009
sell euro
Reply   
euro does not look good IMHO, stay with usd for now, unless we go quickly above 1.2650 it is surely going down later to low 1.25 or even 1.24!

Bilad KaL 14:25 GMT March 2, 2009
BailOut
Reply   
would u guys think of it as if it's a form of irresponsiblity of the goverments NOT Being able to handle things...
it's Like here u guys pay for it
Nationalization is the exact same thing Just Labled something else...
they do have words for little thing they do
so C goes broke...hey guys u now own it

Bkk bounbough 14:13 GMT March 2, 2009
AIG bail out
Reply   
What a colossal waste of tax payer’s money. Do they honestly think that 30 yards pitched against a 60 yard loss on the eve of another Great Depression would solve the problem? All their assets should be sold, converted into treasury bonds and the news emailed to policy holders to save on stamps, envelopes and endless ‘sign here’ forms. Perhaps they could build some grain silos in the basement incase the CEO’s go Enron on them, or the exorbitant bonuses dry up the bailout funds.

Bilad KaL 14:03 GMT March 2, 2009
KaL's Auto Trades

USDCHF
Longs
3/2/09 9:00 AM 1.1797 1.1717
3/2/09 10:00 AM 1.1801 1.1719
3/2/09 11:00 AM 1.1805 1.1721
3/2/09 12:00 PM 1.1808 1.1722
3/2/09 1:00 PM 1.1812 1.1724
3/2/09 2:44 PM 1.1815 1.1726
3/2/09 5:12 PM 1.1819 1.1728

EURNZD..My best Long
3/2/09 9:00 AM 2.5586 2.5416
3/2/09 10:00 AM 2.5594 2.5426
3/2/09 11:00 AM 2.5605 2.5437
3/2/09 12:00 PM 2.5618 2.5449
3/2/09 1:00 PM 2.5632 2.5461
3/2/09 2:44 PM 2.5648 2.5475
3/2/09 5:12 PM 2.5665 2.5490


gl

Bilad KaL 13:59 GMT March 2, 2009
KaL's Auto Trades

starting to short

eurusd
3/2/09 9:00 AM 1.2637 1.2546
3/2/09 10:00 AM 1.2635 1.2542
3/2/09 11:00 AM 1.2631 1.2537
3/2/09 12:44 PM 1.2625 1.2530
3/2/09 3:12 PM 1.2618 1.2523

GBPJPY some longs today..not for long time

3/2/09 9:00 AM 138.4260 136.1643
3/2/09 10:00 AM 138.3673 136.0664
3/2/09 11:44 AM 138.3177 135.9778
3/2/09 2:12 PM 138.2637 135.8931
3/2/09 5:24 PM 138.1991 135.8077

Bkk Bounbough 13:57 GMT March 2, 2009
Bleeding funds
Reply   
HSBC shares fell 11% this morning. Are they dumping their own stock?
10 year T-bills fell to levels not seen since 1956!!!
Half the LIBOR rates are yielding less than 1%. Bullion is spiking. This is like a the crash of 32 but in slower motion. Governments wasting tax dollars to prop up giant corps hemorrhaging cash (your super funds). At least China was seen buying up 10 year bonds last week.
Staying long dollars imo.

London NYAM 13:56 GMT March 2, 2009
Geitner piece
Reply   
In December 2006, the Federal Reserve, with the support of the New York Fed, lifted a reporting requirement on Citi. After the New York Fed found that the bank had helped Enron Corp. set up off-balance-sheet entities, the Federal Reserve in 2003 forced Citi to file quarterly reports documenting how it was improving risk management. The Fed ended the reporting requirement three years later, saying Citi had improved.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aLhs5Byln00k

tallinn viies 13:48 GMT March 2, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
move over Asian higher 1,2645 could bring stop buy orders in and euro should move towrad friday high 1,2745/50

GVI Forex john 13:36 GMT March 2, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

U.S. CPI and Core PCE

tallinn viies 13:19 GMT March 2, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
seems that too much snow in NY will save euro from falling like stone :)

GVI Forex john 13:16 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

13:30	US Jan	Per Inc	        Cons: -0.3%	Last: -0.2%
13:30	US Jan	Core PCE mm	Cons: +0.1%	Last: 0.0%
13:30	CA Dec	GDP mm	        Cons: n/a	Last: -0.7%
15:00	US Jan	Construction	Cons: -1.5%	Last: -1.4%
15:00	US Feb	MFG PMI    	Cons: 34.3	Last: 35.6
U.S. data Zone…
Monday (GMT)
U.S. -Important- Personal Income, PCE price data. Closely watched. PCE favorite Fed inflation index.
U.S. ISM PMI- Important- one of the most current measures of economy.
CA- GDP- important- Monthly GDP data very current
U.S. – Construction Spending. Not usually a market mover

GENEVA DS 13:14 GMT March 2, 2009
MARCH TRADING

GRAZ
Entry: Target: Stop:

GRAZ.... hope you are right with DOW,, as I mentioned on this forum last week, I bought some 10000 calls for nothing for June expiry.... a rise to 8200... would make them at least 20 times my entry price... lets hope and pray together..

GVI Forex john 13:04 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

Survey Results...

Thanks for your participation. Looking at the modal value of middle rates, it looks like a pretty even split on the outlook for €/$. The ranges have a bit more of a downward bias for the pair. As always, we encourage your comments!

Low	high	middle	spread		Low	high
1.2400	1.2620	1.2510	0.0220		1.2400	1.2620
1.2460	1.2630	1.2545	0.0170		1.2460	1.2625
1.2480	1.2648	1.2564	0.0168		1.2480	1.2630
1.2520	1.2625	1.2573	0.0105		1.2505	1.2636
1.2510	1.2650	1.2580	0.0140		1.2510	1.2648
1.2505	1.2667	1.2586	0.0162		1.2515	1.2650
  CURRENT SPOT == >> 1.2590
1.2540	1.2650	1.2595	0.0110		1.2520	1.2650
1.2525	1.2675	1.2600	0.0150		1.2525	1.2667
1.2536	1.2670	1.2603	0.0134		1.2536	1.2670
1.2580	1.2636	1.2608	0.0056		1.2540	1.2675
1.2515	1.2720	1.2618	0.0205		1.2580	1.2720
1.2585	1.2800	1.2693	0.0215		1.2585	1.2800
  AVERAGES:
1.2513	1.2666	1.2589	0.0153				

Como Perrie 13:03 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

as SP eurjpy tanking eurusd might go below 1.24 late today...

I do not see any reason for the stock market to not drop further so far...and alot whatever state helps we see AIG is 3d time asking money so better bankrupt and do something anew....too toxic entities must not survive imvho

Chicago SC 12:59 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2510-1.2650

GENEVA DS 12:54 GMT March 2, 2009
MARCH TRADING

GRAZ
Entry: Target: Stop:

Tks. will see... lets wait and make some bucks... I am flat all over and wait for some little rally in EURJPY 123-124 to short for some 500 plus good trading

GRAZ 12:51 GMT March 2, 2009
MARCH TRADING

GENEVA DS 08:59 GMT March 2, 2009

DJI: 8'200 before 6'300 and no idea about what will come first among 4.5K & 9K. fair enough?

Como Perrie 12:33 GMT March 2, 2009
The Gulasch Crisis
Reply   
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1882499,00.html

Netherlands Bob 12:33 GMT March 2, 2009
Record Corporate Loss in History Ever


yes Perrie, and pre market trading takes that paper double digit up

Maribor 12:32 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1,2515-1,272

Como Perrie 12:32 GMT March 2, 2009
Record Corporate Loss in History Ever
Reply   
AIG enters record books with $61.7 billion Q4 loss

Netherlands Bob 12:28 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close


12525-12675

GVI Forex john 12:27 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2400-1.2620

Looks ugly to me for stox

Perth Alan 12:27 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2536 - 1.2670

Think it just breaks the low but not enough to follow through today.

Bilad KaL 12:20 GMT March 2, 2009
EURUSD Maybe a buy here
Reply   
i THINK THEY MIGHT BUY IT
EURUSD
around here
TGT US Session High at 1.2636 to 1.2580

GVI Forex john 12:17 GMT March 2, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

PMIs...

EZ/US PMI mfg


U.K. PMI mfg


Swiss PMI mfg

GVI Forex john 12:16 GMT March 2, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Earlier..EZ HICP

London C 12:08 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2520-1.2625

GVI Forex Jay 12:06 GMT March 2, 2009
gbp

This is from GVI Forex (contact me if you want access)

Budapest Z 11:55 GMT March 2, 2009
eugbp: Reply

rumour there is big demand fo eurgbp at fix in 5 min

Livingston nh 12:04 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

Hi=1.2630 Lo=1.2460 // still bound by the declining 21dma and waiting for a BAD headline

London HC 12:04 GMT March 2, 2009
gbp
Reply   
Any news out in cable?

NYC JM 12:02 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2540-1.2650

Tricky day today as a lot will again depend on stocks. While 1.25 is at risk, price action around 1.2550 and talk of barriers at 1.25 suggest some defense of this level.

Munich peter 11:58 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2585 - 1.2800 if we are to assume that we rangetrade 1.25-1.30 then we have already seen the low this morning like we saw the week high last Monday in early Europe. Also all this weekend gloomy euro collapsing talk has not pushed the pair lower. If the US also doesn't we are in for a ride back up imvho.

SH HL 11:57 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2480-1.2648

GVI Forex Jay 11:53 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close


Entry: EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close Target: Stop:

Please continue to participate in this daily sentiment poll. This is a good chance for those (many) who just watch to post on our forums. The more who participate, the better the poll. Note poll closes at 13:00 GMT.

Post your forecast for the EUR/USD range for the NY session start until today’s close and a line for your rationale.

Click on "reply" to post your forecast and keep it in the same thread

houston st 11:50 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close
Reply   


1.2505 to 1.2667

...the low would be a return to the recent low, and a breach puts the new monthly low pivot zone on the radar (1.2474 and below)...gl/gt.

Como Perrie 11:01 GMT March 2, 2009
The Gulasch Crisis
Reply   
All the following while ECB is talked to go into a desperate cut later the week, setting rates at 1.5 pct.
--
"Haines said that European banks in particular, counterparties on many of AIG's outstanding derivative contracts, "would be hammered if the U.S. walked away."

Donn Vickrey, an analyst with Gradient Analytics, who has closely followed the financial deterioration at AIG said while "European banks are about two-third of the problem ... it would be a domino effect across the globe. Continued...

http://uk.reuters.com/article/stocksAndSharesNews/idUKLNE52101620090302

GVI Forex Blog 10:41 GMT March 2, 2009
Week Ahead
Reply   
This is a good summary of the week ahead:

Economics Weekly - BoE and ECB to cut interest rates, weak US jobs data expected

Syd 10:22 GMT March 2, 2009
EUR Is A "Precarious Place To Invest"Commerzbank
Reply   
"The mounting risks make the EUR a precarious place to invest," says Commerzbank. Says the EU's decision not to go for a coordinated bailout of Eastern Europe puts the EUR at risk in several ways, including the threat to EMU countries themselves. "Their collapse would be a disaster for the European currency," the bank says, noting it isn't any surprise that the dollar continues to rise against the EUR despite the continued poor news about the US economy.

USD/JPY Extremely Overvalued - BarCap
According to Barclays Capital's financial fair value model USD/JPY remains extremely [around 6%] overvalued. BarCap says over the last 9 years there has been only 2 occasions where its FFV model has been overvalued by more than 5% and on both occasion the overvaluation was corrected, although it took a couple of weeks to happen. The bank says although it's hard to tell when this downside correction will come, it will, probably be helped by Japanese investors repatriating assets as year-end approaches.

Bilad KaL 10:02 GMT March 2, 2009
usdcad lONGS
Reply   
Longing

3/2/09 4:45 AM 1.2846 1.2769
TGT
3/2/09 9:30 AM 1.2859 1.2770
3/2/09 3:55 PM 1.2855 1.2765

Netherlands Bob 10:00 GMT March 2, 2009
CITI
Reply   

everybody say that CITI nationalized, why not say that US government is actually privatized? ... very happy trades!

Jerusalem ML 09:48 GMT March 2, 2009
Down trend resumes...
Reply   
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold could see 900 in march

This week crucial, gold to go lower towards 930 mon or tue
then 900 later this month....

Good luck

EUR to rebound to 1.30 GL
buy calls on market 6900 tgt , to 7500 again

Bilad KaL 09:44 GMT March 2, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   
Short EURUSD tgt 1.24
Long USDCHF TGT 1.19

Bilad KaL 09:35 GMT March 2, 2009
GBPNZD
Reply   
Long GBPNZD
TGT
2.8961

Gen dk 09:25 GMT March 2, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GENEVA DS 08:59 GMT March 2, 2009
MARCH TRADING

GRAZ
Entry: Target: Stop:

TKS. Graz.. all clear... so we can wait a little longer to get long the Stox...?... Dow 4500 first , then 9000 again... ? Or 100 EURJPY first , then 124 again ?.... or don t you believe that all market participants are already waiting for the strong hand to come in NOW ?.... gut feeling from myself is, that market is long by now in USDJPY and EURJPY... , so eventually markets is decoupling the decoupling mode between stox and JPY soon again... ?

GRAZ 08:54 GMT March 2, 2009
MARCH TRADING
Reply   
GENEVA DS 07:31 GMT February 26, 2009

when market will get overloaded with panic this month, it will be the right time to short panic.

AZUSA 4x-ed 08:52 GMT March 2, 2009
$ Index
Reply   
USD Index range break is about to create some major whip tails imo. Determined to keep the powder dry atm, as this may not be the capitulation envisioned by USD bulls.

london jp 08:52 GMT March 2, 2009
AUD/JPY
Reply   
U.K. J.B

How much time approx will you be putting on the AUD/JPY long from 61.75 to work out? Thaks in anticipation.....

Bilad KaL 08:18 GMT March 2, 2009
GBPUSD
Reply   
OK Cable
US Open Range
3/2/09 9:30 AM 1.4283 1.4219

Close range
3/2/09 3:30 PM 1.4237 1.4172


From Now to US Open

3/2/09 4:30 AM 1.4315 1.4253

I think a sell sounds ok

Bilad KaL 08:09 GMT March 2, 2009
EURUSD

NZDUSD
very bearish
Expected us close Range
3/2/09 3:30 PM 0.4917 0.4880

will sell
3/2/09 4:15 AM 0.4970 0.4934

Bilad KaL 07:59 GMT March 2, 2009
EURUSD

GBPUSD sell at
1.4314
Target 1.4150

Bilad KaL 07:56 GMT March 2, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   
Large sell Order for EURUSD at 1.2620
Target 1.2480

Syd 07:46 GMT March 2, 2009
New 'Iron Curtain' will split EU's rich and poor
Reply   
Eastern European countries gave an apocalyptic warning yesterday of hordes of unemployed workers heading west as a new Iron Curtain divides rich from poor inside Europe.

Twenty years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Western leaders were told yesterday that five million jobs could be lost in the “new” European Union countries of the East unless radical action were taken to bail them out. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article5828323.ece

BA mades 07:17 GMT March 2, 2009
mkt
Reply   
Constant negative information flow and a lot of support power in february. We don't trade feelings, but mine is telling me now, that we might see cheaper dollar in the following weeks. Breaking and closing below february low will of course change this view but for R:R thinking, long positions are definitely less risky with SR orders at proper levels.

Bilad KaL 06:49 GMT March 2, 2009
C da boss
Reply   


Citi forecast
penny stock soon

Syd 06:42 GMT March 2, 2009
$aud
Reply   
Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Richard Grace said the spate of hurdles for the Australian dollar means a test of US$0.6009 could be on the cards, especially if the RBA again cuts rates at Tuesday's board meeting, and the growth figures Wednesday show the economy contracted. Economists moved to rapidly cut their growth outlook for Australia after data earlier Monday showed company profits were much weaker than expected in the 2008 fourth quarter, falling 6.5%, while inventories fell 1.9%. Illustrating the speed at which the global recession is marching onto Australia's shores, Treasurer Wayne Swan warned the contracting economies of the U.S. and Australia's largest trading partners will likely have had a "dramatic impact on growth in Australia in the December quarter." The gloomy mood means pressure will continue to weigh on the Australian dollar. "There are massive risks skewed in favor of (the Australian dollar) going lower," CBA's Grace said. "It's not adding up to a good week for the Aussie." Westpac currency strategist Jonathan Cavenagh expects the next level of support around US$0.6250-80, and then US$0.6190.
"Below that, you look at a chart and it doesn't look too pretty."
He expects failure of these supports to prompt the Australian dollar to retest bear-market lows around US$0.6000, and said more risk aversion will likely feed into other risk barometers such as commodities prices and the VIX risk index, at which point the local unit will be harder hit. DJ

Syd 05:32 GMT March 2, 2009
Stanford Bank Collapse Threatens Venezuela
Reply   
The collapse of a Venezuelan bank owned by R. Allen Stanford, the Texas financier accused of fraud, is raising concern that the run on its deposits could spread to other banks, threatening the nation's economy.

On Saturday, President Hugo Chávez blamed his political enemies for rumors about mass withdrawals, and urged depositors not to pull their savings from domestic banks.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123595106454404981.html

Bilad KaL 04:56 GMT March 2, 2009
AUD May Yet Retest Bear Mkt Lows - Westpac

I think heading to .6130 from here

Syd 04:48 GMT March 2, 2009
AUD May Yet Retest Bear Mkt Lows - Westpac
Reply   
Risk aversion sending AUD/USD down to key support at 0.6300 though increased jitters in equities markets haven't flowed through to FX vols or VIX just yet, Westpac FX strategist Jonathan Cavenagh says; puts next support around 0.6250-80, then 0.6190. "Below that, you look at a chart and it doesn't look too pretty." Expects failure of these supports would lead AUD/USD to retest bear-market lows around 0.6000. More risk aversion will likely feed into other risk barometers like commodities prices, VIX at some point, at which point AUD will be harder hit. Pair last at 0.6320

Bilad KaL 04:29 GMT March 2, 2009
USDCAD
Reply   
GM all
Long USDCAD MKT here..
tgt 1.3100
seems very bullish

eurnzd
Longs
2.54091
2.54266

seems wants 2.6

Bloomington UI 04:09 GMT March 2, 2009
closed out for book money
Reply   
Sell usdjp
Entry: Target: Stop:

Closed out short usdjpy positions for 97 pips. Scary looking bullish engulfing just closed.

Syd 03:48 GMT March 2, 2009
We need shock and awe policies to halt depression
Reply   
LINK

Warren Buffett loses billions
LINK


Japanese trader makes £22 billion mistake
A trader working in the Japanese branch of the Swiss bank UBS mistakenly ordered £22 billion of bonds while trying to buy just £220,000.

The Bank of England is set to bring interest rates down to an effective zero-level within days and to sound the starting pistol on quantitative easing, pumping extra cash into the economy.
Bank of England poised for rate cut


US-style foreclosure signs could be coming to your street as the world's biggest and brashest repo auctioneers hit Britain. Rupert Jones reports

The Americans are coming!

Syd 01:08 GMT March 2, 2009
Aussie Econ Could Show Sharp 4Q Contraction - ANZ
Reply   
Australian company profits much weaker in 4Q than expected, falling 6.5% on quarter vs 2.0% drop tipped; inventories down 1.9% in 4Q vs expected rise of 0.2%. Both results expected to weigh on final 4Q GDP outcome
TD Securities trims Australia 4Q GDP view to +0.2% on-quarter vs +0.3% previously, with risk skewed to downside on weak 4Q company gross operating profit and inventories data; data "suggests downside risk to GDP particularly on the income side there - we think inventories will subtract 0.4 of a percentage point from growth and company gross operating profits also suggest a downside risk to GDP," says TD's Josh Williamson. Adds, today's data undoes better capex, construction data issued recently.
Australian economy could show a contraction of up to 0.8% or 0.9% in 4Q vs 3Q, as company profits, inventory levels took a battering through period. ANZ economist Katie Dean says any happy thoughts that economy continued to grow in 4Q even as global economy sunk into a deep hole have been obliterated by drop in company profits of 6.5% for quarter and 1.9% drop in inventories for same period..

Syd 00:41 GMT March 2, 2009
will keep an eye out for anything cheers
Reply   
St. Louis SAJ 00:36

Syd 00:39 GMT March 2, 2009
Australian Co Profits -6.5% In 4Q Vs -2.0% Consensus
Reply   
Australian 4Q Inventories -1.9% On Qtr; Consensus +0.2%

Australian company gross operating profits fell 6.5% to a seasonally adjusted A$58.02 billion in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the previous quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Monday.

EUR falling as some players selling due to disappointment on weekend summit of European leaders, as it wasn't able to come up with new solution vs financial jitters; also its rejection of supporting package of Eastern Europe presented by Hungary spurs risk aversion, says senior dealer at major bank in Tokyo. EUR/USD last 1.2580, may fall to 1.2400; EUR/JPY last 122.37, may fall to 121.00. "This also weighs on other European units, such as the UK pound.


Australia not immune from global recession, says Swan
TREASURER Wayne Swan has warned that Australia's economy will be hit as our major trading partners slide into recession.

National accounts figures to be released by the Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday will show if economic growth went backwards in the last three months of 2008.

St. Louis SAJ 00:36 GMT March 2, 2009
Aussie Swan Gives Little Away On State Bond Aid

Evenin', Syd -- Any stories in the Oz press about Euro?

Looks like a rough start for my (cough) favourite currency tonight.

GL & GT to you, and thanks again for your ''news bureau'' status.

Lahore FM 00:35 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

02/27/2009 16:13:36 FM Lahore 10
short usdcad 1.2676,stops 1.2750.

eurusd 1.2720/30 still importnat on the daily clsoe basis.
--
usdcad 1.2676 stopped 1.2750 for minus 74.

Lahore FM 00:31 GMT March 2, 2009
Trade Ideas

02/27/2009 16:30:56 FM Lahore 7
one longa udusd from 0.6360's runs in half.another was stopepd at 0.6380 for small gain with partial close higher up.

--
entered afresh as 2nd position now at 0.6396.stops at 0.6320.
--
stopped for minus 76.

----------
eurusd long from 1.2630's stopped on half at 1.2590 for small gain with partial close at 1.2710 area late friday.

flat on eurusd audusd.

Syd 00:01 GMT March 2, 2009
Aussie Swan Gives Little Away On State Bond Aid
Reply   
Australia Treasurer Swan gives little away on government's thinking on how to intervene and improve states' access to public borrowing market, but says a range of options are on the table as part of ongoing discussions; states will likely be disappointed government hasn't rushed out to shore up their own borrowing needs given swift measures taken on bank debt, but Swan's signal that talks are ongoing will be taken as some encouragement. At crux of matter is whether government will step in and directly fund infrastructure, some of which they have pledged to do already, or whether they might extend AAA guarantee, or prod AOFM into buying semi bonds direct.
AUD/USD coming off, fast approaching 1-month lows as risk aversion gathers pace in early trade, Sydney-based trader says. Expects break of 0.6330 will put support at 0.6300, little scope for upside in this environment. Notes some selling also likely prompted by Treasurer Swan's comments pointing to most of Australia's trading partners being in recession and how this will likely impact 4Q dramatically. Growing speculation about RBA pause in easing cycle this week may support AUD though clear sense of RBA mood won't be known until rate announcement tomorrow.dj

 




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