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Forex Forum Archive for 03/05/2009

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 22:32 GMT March 5, 2009
DJ Australia Feb Performance Construction Index -4.6 Pts To 29.5
Reply   
Australia's construction sector contracted for the 12th consecutive month in February as ever weakening demand and confidence curtailed new projects.
The Australian Industry Group-Housing Industry Association Performance of Construction Index fell 4.6 points in February from January to 29.5, well below the 50 point level which separates expansion from contraction.
Although the construction downturn is broad based, hardest hit are the apartment and commercial construction sectors, with commercial activity falling 9.6 points to a new low of 22.2.

ldn 22:25 GMT March 5, 2009
forex
Reply   
Stockholm za 17:29 GMT March 5, 2009
Za's...'the angle of the dangle" forex system is now at all unemployment offices across Europe..and Sweden

lkwd jj 22:05 GMT March 5, 2009
usdjpy
Reply   
daily charts 150 ma 97.90. low today 97.71. mkt last above 150 back in october where level was 105. todays close is 3rd day above.

Syd 21:38 GMT March 5, 2009
"Quantitative easing is the last-chance saloon for the Bank of England,"
Reply   
LINK

The Bank of England is to pump out 75 billion pounds sterling ($163.43 billion) of newly-printed money after slashing interest rates to a record-low 0.5% in a twin-pronged attack on the global credit crunch.LINK


General Motors said its auditors had raised "substantial doubt" about its ability to survive outside bankruptcy if it fails to stem its losses and stop burning cash.
GM's survival in 'substantial doubt'


Morristown GG 21:25 GMT March 5, 2009
Trade Ideas

Wash, If buying Treasuries requires dollars, when they go up - increase in demand, wouldn't dollar/yen go up too? Or are you saying that yen goes up when risk tolerance goes down and treasuries are purchased?

Syd 21:18 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR Has Scope For Further Losses Vs Majors
Reply   
Following the ECB decision today, EUR remains out of favor vs USD, with further scope to fall against the majors as the market prices in more monetary easing by the ECB later this year, says Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon. "The EUR is also expected to suffer from further deterioration in economic fundamentals as the USD has clearly taken the role as the sole safe-haven currency," he says.

GMAC, MetLife Among Banks Undergoing Stress Tests
LINK

Morristown GG 21:17 GMT March 5, 2009
$

Buy AUD
Entry: 62.377 Target: 63.75 Stop: 62.0

Syd, I'm thinking with Gold spiking, AUD could follow since it has dropped so far relative to dollar. Do you think we could buy AUD / Yen for a few hours and then watch what happens in Aisa and Europe as Non-Farm payrolls approach tomorrow? (AUD may follow dollar / yen lower? ) Any other thoughts would be appreciated, still trying to understand fundamentals of AUD / Yen after Carry trade days. Is it true that NZD is now more favored as a carry currency against yen- due to interest rates?

lkwd jj 21:10 GMT March 5, 2009
dow jones
Reply   
dow is going back to level of last democratic president who had no clue (jimmy carter).

NYC TH 20:59 GMT March 5, 2009
eur.usd correction

Amman, What about eur/usd?

Netherlands Bob 20:52 GMT March 5, 2009
C

Geneva 20:45 GMT March 5, 2009

my friend, I came in @ 0.99 and went out @ $1.03 after costs I have more than 3% net in my hand ... IF IF IF IF IF IF IF was the major of pandit the bandit and all the other banking crooks ... I am sure of making more than 25K% with CITI while it will make your suggested 1K% rise ... meanwhile all the banking crooks will keep on explaining why they were right the whole way and the rest of the world is responsible for making them thieves.

Geneva 20:45 GMT March 5, 2009
C

iF 1 DAY c WILL BE AT 10$ YOU CAN SAY i BOUGHT AT 0.98 AND SOLD AT 1.03. I WANT TO KEEP.

GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

NEW! GVI Forex Chart Gallery. Printable FX Charts

Click for Complete Chart Points

5-Mar-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.2543

98.15

1.1713

1.4115

1.2883

High

1.2663

99.68

1.1809

1.4233

1.2899

Low

1.2480

98.00

1.1644

1.4038

1.2750

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.2607

98.21

1.1727

1.4143

1.2818

10 day

1.2690

97.14

1.1684

1.4266

1.2652

20 day

1.2756

94.53

1.1664

1.4348

1.2545

50 day

1.3097

92.01

1.1396

1.4433

1.2367

100 day

1.3068

93.49

1.1537

1.4914

1.2330

200 day

1.4027

100.11

1.1129

1.6914

1.1397

Netherlands Bob 20:35 GMT March 5, 2009
C

Geneva 19:58

good luck or bad luck, I am out @ $1.03 ... more than 3% net/net in my hand ... let's make make the Titanic only a movie to watch :)

Netherlands Bob 20:01 GMT March 5, 2009
MAKING MONEY IDEA
Reply   

TOILET PAPER ROLLS with the portraits of bankers and central bankers, everybody will buy the rolls ... 100% success guaranteed (not Amman style) ... don't forget me when you count the multi millions from this idea.

Geneva 19:58 GMT March 5, 2009
C

300'000 peoples work in C! The world really got mad.

Good LUCK!

Netherlands Bob 19:53 GMT March 5, 2009
C

GENEVA

funny, with the same idea I bought at the same price ... knowing my kids, I am afraid they will tell me: "dad, was toilet paper too expensive that times?" ... funny enough, I traded C few dozen times since the break below $10, always the long side, and all with profit ... I hope this time is not the time things will go wrong :)

GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Data Preview…
Europe-
CH- CPI- important- targets 2.0% inflation.
UK- Output PPI- closely followed- part of BOE policy profile.
EZ- Industrial Ouput- closely followed- German production key

North America-
U.S.- Monthly Payrolls- important- biggest number of month. Seen very weak.
U.S. Clocks “spring forward in North America early Sunday.


6:45  CH  Feb	CPI mm  	Cons: 0.0	Last: -0.8%
6:45  CH  Feb	CPI yy	        Cons: -0.1%	Last: +0.1%
9:30  UK  Feb	Core Out PPI yy	Cons: +3.6%	Last: +4.1%
11:00 DE  Jan	Ind Output	Cons: n/a	Last: -4.6%
13:30 US  Feb	Rate	        Cons: 7.9%	Last: 7.6%
13:30 US  Feb	Employment	Cons: -650K	Last: -598K
21:30 US  WK	U.S. Money      Cons: n/a        Last: n/a
			SUNDAY	
4:00	US/CA	Time	Clocks +1hr	Cons: n/a	Last: n/a

Geneva 19:50 GMT March 5, 2009
C

We might be the biggest idiots on earth? but worth to try!
America really censored up!

GL

madrid 19:46 GMT March 5, 2009
C
Reply   
Geneva 19:41 GMT March 5, 2009

LOL, i have 100.000 at 0.98, for my grand grand grand...... children

8-)

Geneva 19:41 GMT March 5, 2009
C
Reply   
Bought 50'000 C @ 0.99! Keep for my childrens

Punta Cana bonbon 19:38 GMT March 5, 2009
marichon ...мрасен гей
Reply   
To Don Marichon ...do you know what ЯМХ means ?

What do you think ?

майка ти да еба мрасен гей :)

GVI Forex Jay 19:07 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1,2550 still acting as a magnet - just pointing out how the survey can be a tool

Mumbai RR 19:01 GMT March 5, 2009
Trade Ideas

Thanks for the reply.
Wish you well!

Washington dc 18:49 GMT March 5, 2009
Trade Ideas

Yen moves with treasuries in lockstep..

Mumbai RR 18:31 GMT March 5, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy AUD/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

How sure is this to go up and what is the view on where it will head? JPY has been gaining last 20 hrs or so on all currencies. Have a trade opened and need AUD to pick up on JPY : )
Thanks !

GVI Forex Jay 18:21 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

There was a wide range of forecasts but the median was 1.2550, which has been pivoted after the bounce from sub-1.25 earlier.

Lahore FM 18:03 GMT March 5, 2009
Trade Ideas

2nd long entered audusd 0.6390.

Amman wfakhoury 18:00 GMT March 5, 2009
eur.usd correction
Reply   
my previous call related to eurusd not eur jpy

Amman wfakhoury 17:58 GMT March 5, 2009
eur.jpy
Reply   
must pass again 12521

Stockholm za 17:29 GMT March 5, 2009
CURRENT TRADE STRAT


Face value of such mathematics’ can be misleading.
Long term profitability of such strategy can and only could be profitable
If you have exaggerated inside FLOW data info.
Functionality through correlation and pairs-math cancelations is not the strength in such given scenario in spot FX.
I do trust that there is (you have) well documented back & forward test info on the strategy.
I would suggest that you look (move) into real options as an alternative.
Note:
Bough CADCHF and Sold JPYUSD
Does NOT equals
SHORT USDCAD AND SHORT CHFJPY
Happy trades….

Lahore FM 17:27 GMT March 5, 2009
Trade Ideas

03/04/2009 18:10:03 FM Lahore 9
bought gold 907.00 stops at a later time.
--
out of half at 924.65 stops to 890 on the rest.

HK Kevin 16:43 GMT March 5, 2009
Citi

London Gooner 16:31 GMT, I am also buying Cable at. 1.4081 with stop below yesterday's low. Today 50 points rate cut may be the end of MPC easing cycle. Chartwise, yestersday's bullish reversal follwing Tue's cross star may also mark a mid-term bottom for Cable.

London Gooner 16:31 GMT March 5, 2009
Citi
Reply   
C.US a penny share. Incredible!
FX wise I would not be surprised to see cable trying a test
of 1.4400 area but that said it is obviously still in the bearish range with biais to sell rallies.
Same for eurusd with 1.2720 area main resistance I am watching. As we did not see deep rapid slide when 1.2510 broke this week I am inclined to say that bears may square up some positions in the next few sessions.
NZDUSD bullish engulfing candle yesterday should offer a buy signal even if nowadays a lot of techs & patterns serve no purpose - still buying some with 0.5150 area target.

Maribor 16:08 GMT March 5, 2009
EURUSD

Bob, subsequent behavior of prices changed probabilities - I now prefer going down to ~1,24 area(even lower possible), to return later to 1,262. Shall see.

lkwd jj 16:06 GMT March 5, 2009
usdjpy
Reply   
was short 99.30 and stopped out 99.60 in overnight. censored!

Haifa ac 16:03 GMT March 5, 2009
gbp.usd call

Amman wfakhoury 15:58 GMT March 5, 2009
-----
can any prof trader do that ?//

No. You are the ONLY ONE!

Amman wfakhoury 15:58 GMT March 5, 2009
gbp.usd call
Reply   
while gbp.usd rising till 14160 , I sent an alert and posted here
to exit immediately then it declined till 14110.
-----
can any prof trader do that ?

baghdad 15:55 GMT March 5, 2009
hi. im look it
Reply   
Buy
Entry: Target: Stop:

buy gold

Amman wfakhoury 15:52 GMT March 5, 2009
EBS trading platform
Reply   
any one using EBS trading platform here.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:51 GMT March 5, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell DJIA
Entry: Target: Stop:

DJIA: Watch the following levels tonight : 6723 - 6742 - 6767 - 6790. The odds are good that the market will tackle the projected suppporting range at 6425 - 6433 within the next 48 hours.

Amman wfakhoury 15:38 GMT March 5, 2009
exit gbp.usd buy
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 11:35 GMT March 5, 2009
gbp.usd BOE data call: Reply
Buy around 14080 tp 14210.
buy another at 14000 if decline before tp and exit both around 14100.
no stops.

====
rush exit as it is weak uptrend 14155now)

GVI Forex john 15:33 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

from GVI..

Ldn Cashman 15:26 GMT March 5, 2009
EBS:
Back up and running now.

Toronto tn 15:17 GMT March 5, 2009
Quote of the Day
Reply   
"I am becoming increasingly convinced that the cabal in Washington has no intention of ending the financial crisis. Instead, they see tremendous opportunities to gain more power by prolonging it." -Ed Yardeni

GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Canada Ivey PMI

GENEVA JFO 15:09 GMT March 5, 2009
trend reversal
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: Target: Stop:

very good position for trend reversal !!

madrid 14:58 GMT March 5, 2009
trading platform EBS
Reply   
NEW YORK, March 5 (Reuters) - Electronic foreign exchange trading platform EBS was temporarily down in some key financial centers, traders said on Thursday.

Currency traders in New York, London, and Canada cited problems with the platform and one specifically cited glitches in the dollar/yen pair.

"EBS is down and it's tough for people to get trades through the market. Spreads are a bit wide right now, making the market a bit more volatile," said Dave Bradley, director of FX trading at Scotia Capital in Toronto.

EBS, which is owned by ICAP (IAP.L), was not immediately available for comment.

Reuters, meanwhile, competes with EBS in the foreign exchange market. (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Steven C. Johnson; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)

London NYAM 14:53 GMT March 5, 2009
While you await the next to shoe to drop....
Reply   
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/05/jon-stewart-eviscerates-c_n_172057.html

San Diego bobl 14:39 GMT March 5, 2009
EBS
Reply   
Tor Pumpkin has informed us that interbank dealing can't be done and that is why market died I think. Personally, my desk is just calling very thin, and nothing from funds for a while this morning. I really don't have a clue, but Pumpkin is very reliable.

gl/gt

GENEVA JFO 14:39 GMT March 5, 2009
buy the euro
Reply   
Buy
Entry: 1.2511 Target: 1.2785 Stop: no

Afer all this news eurusd is a strong recover

Gt All :)

HK Kevin 14:38 GMT March 5, 2009
EBS

Sell
Entry: Target: Stop:

San Diego bobl 14:29 GMT, you are not the only one. I have a short USD/JPY from 99.38 and try to cover the position when it falls to 98.34. The platform reply that pricing is changing and can't execute the order. I only manage to cover it at 98.82

madrid 14:36 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

12472-12683


Mistakes are the portals of discovery.
James Joyce


8-)

Maribor 14:34 GMT March 5, 2009
EBS

Bobl, has EBS given any explanation that it is technical issue? It might as well be something else?

San Diego bobl 14:29 GMT March 5, 2009
EBS
Reply   
No kidding John....I just got an 18 pip range on split fills for an order that was not big at all. Caveat Emptor for sure.

gl/gt

HK Kevin 14:27 GMT March 5, 2009
EBS Problems

GVI Forex Jay 14:18 GMT, thank you. I think that is why the spreads of all pairs are widen.

eu kaprikorn 14:27 GMT March 5, 2009
USDJPY
Reply   
very strange divergence in quotes in 3 different platforms... giving different prices within 10-20 pips difference on the USDJPY...

GVI Forex john 14:22 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Warning...
Wire Headlines:
EBS Platform Can't Confirm Transactions -Traders
EBS Problems Cutting Forex Market Liquidity -Traders

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

EBS is a major electonic platform for institutional forex trading. It is where the retail prices come from...

GVI Forex Jay 14:18 GMT March 5, 2009
EBS Problems
Reply   
There has been a problem with EBS today and that is causing liquidity issues in the interbank market - reduced liquidity, especially in usd/jpy but in eur/usd and others as well. Just something to keep in mind as it may be exaggerating volatility.

Netherlands Bob 14:14 GMT March 5, 2009
EURUSD


maribor, 1:20 is 5% ... happy trades :)

Maribor 14:11 GMT March 5, 2009
EURUSD

Bob, my guess is that loading @1,241 area(if it comes there without retrace) would represent R/R around 1:20 in my market theories...and we have unfinished bussines @1,2995...

BA mades 14:09 GMT March 5, 2009
EURUSD

It will be a nice opportunity to start buying. I am expecting extension of the current range to maybe 1.2180 (monthly S2), if it should drop to these levels.

Netherlands Bob 14:01 GMT March 5, 2009
EURUSD


well seen maribor, is it about time to scream 12350 nears?

Maribor 13:58 GMT March 5, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD 1,2501 done...

Como Perrie 13:57 GMT March 5, 2009
Forecasts
Reply   
Trichets just ending, later lotsa speeches the main Gaithner as I see.... I'll be most probably going for the Pub early and maybe see bit later if anything or just tom... .. not having many ideas at current, I'll just see maybe Asia tomorrow as seemingly there's something going on seriusly

Netherlands Bob 13:55 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Amsterdam Purk 13:52 GMT March 5, 2009

if a pro is wrong, then he gets a date with DICK !!! ... right? ... :)

Amsterdam Purk 13:52 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Well i surely hope for the sake of the "pro's" here that they are right with the shorts in e/u because what if they are wrong?

tallinn viies 13:50 GMT March 5, 2009
fwiw
Reply   
1341 GMT (Dow Jones) Revised data on hedge fund flows from TrimTabs
Investment Research shows the "equity long only" strategy" was the only one not
to shed assets in Jan. But it didn't gain any either, coming in at zero as its
total assets stayed at $32.4 bln. The hedge fund strategy that lost the most in
Jan was "event driven," which shrunk by $17.5 bln and now has $117.6 bln in
assets. Overall, the hedge fund industry lost $96 bln in Jan and now has just
$961 bln in total assets, according to Trimtabs, from a record of nearly $2 tln
early in 2008.

San Diego bobl 13:41 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

The Trichet anchor at work again. First target hit... possible shot at second low target.............stock market on lead again, euro follows.

gl/gt

GVI Forex john 13:38 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Weekly jobs U.S. Refresh to update chart...


Click on chart for five-year history

Punta Cana bonbon 13:32 GMT March 5, 2009
GE

So Signor Puta de Marichon ....what do you think?

Lahore FM 13:31 GMT March 5, 2009
Trade Ideas

03/04/2009 20:49:11 GG Morristown 7
thanx GG for asking my welfare.i am well.many thanx for your detailed views on gold and treasuries and possibilities how it might play out!

Lahore FM 13:26 GMT March 5, 2009
Trade Ideas

short usdcd 1.2850,stops 1.2960.

San Diego bobl 13:24 GMT March 5, 2009
market movers
Reply   
We may get some movement here in a few minutes... board lined up with potential movers.

gl/gt

GVI Forex john 12:55 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

Survey Results

Low	high	middle	spread		Low	high
1.2530	1.2730	1.2630	0.0200		1.2466	1.2710
1.2538	1.2725	1.2632	0.0187		1.2520	1.2720
1.2560	1.2710	1.2635	0.0150		1.2530	1.2725
1.2555	1.2720	1.2638	0.0165		1.2538	1.2730
1.2520	1.2780	1.2650	0.0260		1.2550	1.2756
1.2466	1.2837	1.2652	0.0371		1.2555	1.2770
CURRENT SPOT=  1.2662 <<
1.2580	1.2756	1.2668	0.0176		1.2560	1.2780
1.2570	1.2770	1.2670	0.0200		1.2560	1.2780
1.2560	1.2785	1.2673	0.0225		1.2570	1.2785
1.2580	1.2780	1.2680	0.0200		1.2580	1.2785
1.2590	1.2790	1.2690	0.0200		1.2580	1.2790
1.2600	1.2785	1.2693	0.0185		1.2580	1.2820
1.2580	1.2820	1.2700	0.0240		1.2580	1.2820
1.2580	1.2820	1.2700	0.0240		1.2590	1.2820
1.2550	1.2850	1.2700	0.0300		1.2600	1.2837
1.2640	1.2820	1.2730	0.0180		1.2625	1.2837
1.2635	1.2837	1.2736	0.0202		1.2635	1.2845
1.2645	1.2845	1.2745	0.0200		1.2640	1.2850
1.2625	1.2990	1.2808	0.0365		1.2645	1.2990
 AVERAGES:
1.2574	1.2797	1.2686	0.0223	 		

 			

- Best survey participation yet. Thanks to all!
- Looking at the mode middle rate forecast. Bias leans in the direction of a lower €/$.
- Market sentiment stuck in ranges. Beware of complacency when trading ranges.
- Comments suggest markets waiting for job reports/ECB. Also very slow USD grind higher?
- Comments encouraged!

London C 12:49 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2510-1.2630

San Diego bobl 12:43 GMT March 5, 2009
eur/usd
Reply   
San Diego bobl 12:27 GMT March 5, 2009
eur/usd: Reply
eur/usd

central pivot at 1.2595
next low target I see is 1.2527
Upper end not in play as of yet.......
full sell mode, but of course everything's a coin flip for report
low end on dump is 1.2463

Amman wfakhoury 12:37 GMT March 5, 2009
gbp.usd
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:18 GMT March 4, 2009
gbp.usd: Reply
will touch for sure 14030.

=======
just watch it

GVI Forex john 12:36 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2450-1.2650

equities trade sideways or sell-off modestly into Friday data.

NYC jr 12:16 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

HI: 1.2581 LO: 1.2400

London NYAM 12:16 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2388-1.2660 seen the highs today. Surprisingly negative yaking and the next leg down on equities should all presure EURUSD to next shelf.

Livingston nh 12:12 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

HI= 1.2660 Lo= 1.2380 // 1/4 point cut + Trichet

houston st 12:06 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2470 to 1.2635

msc mmv 12:01 GMT March 5, 2009
tod
Reply   
eurusd
Entry: Target: Stop:

1.2330-1.2580

Perth WTR 12:00 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

hi: 1.2590 low: 1.2370

Bilad KaL 11:59 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2570 to 1.2445

I think the high for today is already done

Netherlands Bob 11:57 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2535-1.2915

NYC JM 11:56 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2475-1.2620

Focus is on the ECB and assuming a 50bp rate cut, attention will be on Trichet’s comments. The other focus will be on stocks (currently weaker) and expect a more defensive session ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. employment report. .

Bilad KaL 11:56 GMT March 5, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   
GBPUSD
Might see 1.32 in a week or 2
eurusd 1.20 before another north rallie

Blore RKG 11:55 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2470 - 1.2710: A euro rally is overdue!!

Perth Alan 11:55 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2485 - 12650

Chicago SC 11:55 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2525-1.2700

more range work ahead of jobs data tomorrow

GVI Forex Jay 11:52 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close


Entry: EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close Target: Stop:

We continue to get great feedback on this new daily poll but it works best when you participate. This is a great way for the (many) members who generally watch our forums to take part by posting a forecast. Note poll closes at 13:00 GMT.

Daily Poll:

Post your forecast for the EUR/USD range for the NY session start until today’s close and a line for your rationale.

Click on “reply” to post your forecast and keep it in the same thread


Netherlands Bob 11:44 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD 48HRS trade

Maribor 11:17 GMT // I am long minded and trying to pick greatest possible entry. tks for your opinion.

Como Perrie 11:43 GMT March 5, 2009
Pfolio Idea
Reply   
am mumbling to long GM this early US as am mumling It starts to develop low consumption cars in the near future as Ive heard... small position so far

Amman wfakhoury 11:42 GMT March 5, 2009
gbp.usd BOE data call
Reply   
cairo mike 11:39 GMT March 5, 2009
--------
yes..this call is for data

cairo mike 11:39 GMT March 5, 2009
gbp.usd BOE data call

GBP / USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

even with the interstrate cut after 20 minutes Amman ?

Amman wfakhoury 11:35 GMT March 5, 2009
gbp.usd BOE data call
Reply   
Buy around 14080 tp 14210.
buy another at 14000 if decline before tp and exit both around 14100.
no stops.

Netherlands Bob 11:27 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD 192HRS trade
Reply   
Buy EUR/USD
Entry: 1.2510 Target: above 1.32 Stop: 1.2425


trying to do the most dangerous and pick a bottom ... happy trades :)

Amman wfakhoury 11:26 GMT March 5, 2009
gbp.usd sure call result
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:54 GMT March 4, 2009
gbp.usd: Reply
Amman wfakhoury 10:18 GMT March 4, 2009
gbp.usd: Reply
will touch for sure 14030.

=========
sell around 14110 tp 14030.
sell another at 14200 if rise b4 tp and exit both at 14100.
stops..no stop
========
well done


GVI Forex john 11:18 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

NEW! GVI Forex Chart Gallery. Printable FX Charts

Click for Complete Chart Points

4-Mar-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.2637

99.06

1.1713

1.4170

1.2751

High

1.2656

99.48

1.1850

1.4194

1.2969

Low

1.2458

98.20

1.1706

1.3985

1.2714

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.2648

98.24

1.1714

1.4182

1.2739

10 day

1.2704

96.77

1.1686

1.4285

1.2619

20 day

1.2768

94.20

1.1664

1.4375

1.2515

50 day

1.3126

91.85

1.1376

1.4444

1.2353

100 day

1.3077

93.53

1.1534

1.4946

1.2320

200 day

1.4042

100.14

1.1123

1.6942

1.1382

Maribor 11:17 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD 48HRS trade

Bob, I have 1,2501 as target...below your stop(!)

GVI Forex john 11:13 GMT March 5, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Data Preview…
Europe-
UK- BOE repo rate- important- see -50bp cut.
EZ- ECB refi rate- important- see -50bp cut.
EZ- Pres Trichet press call –important- Future policy signals

North America-
U.S.- Weekly Jobless- important- to remain at high level.
U.S.- revised 4Q08 Productivity- closely watched- revision to previous data.
U.S.- Factory Orders- closely watched- less bad.
CA- Ivey PMI- closely watched- seen better but weak
U.S.- Natural Gas- watched- seasonal drawdown.


12:00	UK  BOE	Rates (1.00%)	Cons: -50bp	Last: -50bp
12:45	EZ  ECB	Rates (2.00%)	Cons: 50bp	Last: unch
13:30	US  WK	Cont Claims mn	Cons: 5.160	Last: 5.112
13:30	US  4Q	Productivity R	Cons: +1.4%	Last: +3.0%
13:30	EZ  ECB	Trichet  	Cons: n/a	Last: n/a
13:30	US  Wk	Initial Claims	Cons: 650K	Last: 667K
15:00	US  Jan	Factory Ords	Cons: -3.5%	Last: -3.9%
15:00	US  US	Geithner	Cons: n/a	Last: n/a
15:00	CA  Jan	Ivey PMI	Cons: 38.0	Last: 36.1
15:30	US  DOE	Nat Gas bcf	Cons: n/a	Last: -101

eu kaprikorn 11:10 GMT March 5, 2009
usdjpy
Reply   
anyone buying here for above 100?

Gen dk 11:00 GMT March 5, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Netherlands Bob 10:59 GMT March 5, 2009
EUR/USD 48HRS trade
Reply   
Buy EUR/USD
Entry: 1.2565 Target: open Stop: 1.2525


happy trades :)

Brusseles Jose 10:57 GMT March 5, 2009
GE

Marichon -- wtf?
when did you pop in here and what do you have to say?

Syd 09:57 GMT March 5, 2009
The Bank of England's printing presses are ready to Rock & Roll
Reply   
As far as markets are concerned, this is World War Three. Share prices have fallen so far and fast in the United States that they are back where they were when Bill Clinton was finishing his first term and John Major was still clinging on to power. Despite a small pick-up yesterday, the sense of misery and resignation remains so pervasive that US markets are now priced for either world war or full-scale depression. LINK




Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
views the operating environment in the U.K. life insurance industry as increasingly challenging owing to elevated financial and economic risks. This is creating incremental downward pressure on ratings, Standard & Poor's noted in a report published today titled "Heightened Financial And Economic Risk Places Downward Ratings Pressure On U.K. Life Insurance Sector". The negative rating trends are clearly evident in the 46% of ratings in the U.K. life sector that currently carry a negative outlook.

Catalanya Marichon 09:13 GMT March 5, 2009
GE
Reply   
Punta Cana bonbon 07:38 GMT March 5, 2009
So Signor Puta de Cano....what do you think?

Syd 09:11 GMT March 5, 2009
Could the China stimulus package only last 24 hours?
Reply   
China to the rescue! Hopefully. And that’s all it appears to be at the moment, HOPE. Talk that China would add another $586 bln to its stimulus plans was the main driver of activity and direction in FX markets overnight, with risk appetite staging a comeback on hopes that it will help drive demand both internally and hence in the global economy. As yet there has been no official confirmation or announcement that such a plan exists as the Chinese legislature sits for its annual session, with Premier Wen Jiabao making no mention in his speech to the annual Party congress. That may become a bit of a worry later on if nothing definitive is forthcoming and force a reversal out of the “risk trades”. Indeed, the early signs of such an outcome were evident late in the Asian session. During his report to the annual congress, Premier Wen admitted that the country is facing unprecedented difficulties and challenges with the economic slowdown becoming a major problem. However, he reaffirmed the 2009 growth target of 8% (worth noting that in China circles the number 8 is regarded as an auspicious number). The Finance Minister announced that, amid declining government revenues and increased government spending, the 2009 total national budget deficit is projected to be 950 bln Yuan (less than 3% of GDP), which will be offset by bond issues. This compares with a deficit of 180 bln Yuan in 2008.
sexy bank

Punta Cana bonbon 07:38 GMT March 5, 2009
GE puts trades
Reply   
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/846-Here-It-Comes-GE.html

someone bought 52000 puts strike $2.50 june09 ... situation very similar to Bear Stearns.. hmmmm let's see what gonna happen

Como Perrie 07:32 GMT March 5, 2009
Chinese Students Want To Know: How Do I Get Rich?
Reply   
The "depressed love" of the American Dream in most former com countries is not a good culture. Might lead a generation or two into overindebtment, wrong enterprise choices and a reshuffle of sort upon the real problem of the World. Might take years so far.

gl


http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/27/chinese-students-rich-opinions-contributors_investment_banking.html?partner=email

SH HL 05:51 GMT March 5, 2009
$$M$$L
Reply   
7 Merrill execs subpoenaed in new york on pay. they are Andrea Orcel, David Goodman, David Gu, David Sobotka, Fares Noujaim, Peter Kraus, Thomas Montag. 2008 pay ranges betweeen $13mio -39 mio in cash and stocks.

Syd 03:56 GMT March 5, 2009
AUD/USD Easing; Mkts Await China Stimulus -Trader
Reply   
AUD/USD has come off largely on back of disappointing domestic data but market participants still awaiting news of Chinese stimulus package, Sydney-based trader says. Until then, expect AUD/USD to find support at 0.6400; news of stimulus, if and when it comes, could push AUD/USD back up to 0.6500 if "it's what the market expects and wants". Disappointment could push pair below 0.6400. "They want to know specifically the size of this package...where it's going to be spent." Pair hit low of 0.6418, since bounced to 0.6436.

CEP News) - Australian building approvals plummeted below economists' forecasts for January, implying Australia's housing and construction sector continues to take a turn for the worst.Seasonally adjusted building approvals fell by 3.7% in January from the month prior, against forecasts for a smaller 2.9% decline. Approvals were down 33.5% annually, against expectations for a 30.4% drop.

A closer look at the Australian Bureau of Statistics report released Thursday (Wednesday night EST) revealed approvals for private sector houses grew by 1.1% month-over-month, and other dwellings approvals decreased by 15.4%.

Syd 03:16 GMT March 5, 2009
Opportunities in Currencies
Reply   
Discussing where the opportunities in the currency markets are, with Jeffrey Halley, senior manager of FX Trading, censored Capital Markets speaking with guest host Jim Rogers, CNBC's Martin Soong & Sri JegarajahLINK



NZD weakening vs USD in line with AUD, EUR, says ANZ bank senior trader Murray Hindley; "everything is struggling through the Asian session." Adds Aussie, Kiwi hurt by weaker-than-expected Australian building approvals, trade data. Says initial support for NZD/USD at 0.4990, resistance at 0.5075 with risk to downside; "any gains seem to be short-lived at the moment." Says market will take direction from ECB, BOE rate decisions later in global day.
Oil Bulls May Be Let Down By China's Silence
Oil prices may be vulnerable to pullback later with China failing to announce any additional economic stimulus - hopes for boost cited as key reason for rally yesterday in oil, financial markets; country is Asia's top oil consumer. China PM Wen, in opening address this morning to the National People's Congress, only reaffirms Beijing's 2009 growth target of "around 8%."


Syd 01:56 GMT March 5, 2009
$
Reply   
Morristown GG sorry my connection was cut faulty line !!

Australian building activity likely to detract from total economic growth again in 1Q, Nomura chief economist Stephen Roberts says. Notes 7th consecutive month of falls in building approvals, which is leading indicator of activity in housing activity. "Sure it's multi-occupancy and probably heavily concentrated in New South Wales but in total we're still plumbing the depths." Adds to case for RBA to cut 50 bps at April meeting.

Soft Australian buildings approvals, and export data lends to case RBA will soon be back at rates chopping block, says RBC Economist Su Lin Ong. "Having thought that the case to cut this week was strong, the data flow leaves us comfortable that the cash rate will eventually move lower to 2.50% and indeed, the RBA's pause may be shorter than it would like." But adds timing of that cut less clear, given RBA's signal it wants to hold steady
Slowing exports in Australian trade data suggest recent string of trade surpluses may be "short-lived", says Commonwealth Securities economist Savanth Sebastian. Still, some positive signs in data, with exports to China +52% on year to A$3.4 billion in January; "certainly it seems like we're still exporting to our Asian trading partners". Prospects for gold exports also look promising, with gold prices in AUD terms at close to record highs, as does rural sector, buoyed by weaker AUD. Sebastian notes rural exports played key role in insulating economy from previous slowdown in 2001; "the weaker AUD helped to prop up exports and keep us out of a recession"

Veteran commodities investor Jim Rogers, speaking on CNBC, says whatever new stimulus proposals emerge from China's National People's Congress, it is no panacea for world economy. "China is not big enough to make up for the rest of the world," pointing out that China's, India's economies combined not as big as U.S. economy.

Europe’s banks face a $2 trillion dollar shortage
LINKEuropean banks face a US dollar “funding gap” of almost $2 trillion as a result of aggressive expansion around the world and may have difficulties rolling over debts, according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements.

Gen dk 00:20 GMT March 5, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Morristown GG 00:08 GMT March 5, 2009
aud/yen

Syd, Thanks - I think Trade Bal and Bldg approvals are due out within 1/2 hour. Do you think the drop off in Aud/yen reflects negative sentiment, and that we will see another rally tonight as the market may be up? If the dollar/yen is toppy, and dollar starts back down to 92 or so... Aud up?
Are you thinking the Aud will return as a favored carry trade during times of higher risk taking?

Syd 00:02 GMT March 5, 2009
aud/yen
Reply   
Morristown GG 23:51 its appears dlr/yen is leading the aud - for now everyone seems to be focusing on the China package which may boost asia trade today. Todays date will be more positive for the aud
Japan MOF: Drop In Capex In Oct-Dec Biggest On Record

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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