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Forex Forum Archive for 03/07/2009

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Mtl JP 21:35 GMT March 7, 2009
more questions than answers



NYC - I pulled up 2 decades worth of S&P and DJIA charts.

I suspect that there is a good likelihood of a double hedge going on: hedgers hedging (i.e. via shorting equities) their initial hedges as they desperately try to hedge their mounting losses. The "driving motor" of the forementioned desperation may just be “More than 8.3 million U.S. mortgage holders owed more on their loans in the fourth quarter than their property was worth as the recession cut home values by $2.4 trillion last year, First American CoreLogic said. An additional 2.2 million borrowers will be underwater if home prices decline another 5%... Households with negative equity or near it account for a quarter of all mortgage holders.” - March 4 – Bloomberg. (they are coming faster than 0bama's capacity to preserve them)

I will spare you the many varied images for your imagination of the continuing job loss reports, except to ask: what is your expectation for the number of monthly job losses to surpass one million mark in the next few months ? And its effect ?

IF u think stocks drive the FX, u may want to make allowances for the two bottom lines I drew in each chart, respectively.

tia for comments.

Cbj Jake 20:33 GMT March 7, 2009
Nice call Amman
Reply   
Amman - Yes, I remember, nice call Friday am. What do you think of the first 15mn candle at #s? Usually NFP is a time of impulsive moves up and down. Not this time.The move up did not start at 8:30 but, with great self assurance, started at 8:15 with a 35pip 15min candle - that's 2pips/min. That kind of characterized the whole move from 1am.

BA mades 16:08 GMT March 7, 2009
another huge FX loss
Reply   
Dunno if you noticed ..

LONDON, March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. bank Merrill Lynch has suspended a currency trader in its London office after he ran up suspected losses of more than $400 mln (284 mln stg), the Financial Times reported.

Quoting "people familiar with the situation", the newspaper's Saturday edition said the trader had been suspended after trades on Norwegian and Swedish currencies went wrong.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:03 GMT March 7, 2009
QIndex Trading System

Sell DJIA
Entry: Target: Stop:

DJIA : The market can easily move up to 6922 and projected resistant points are position at 6804 and 6954. The market is positive if it can trade above 7478. On the other hand when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 6442, the market will tackle 6197. The market is negative when it is below the 6000 mark and the market may challenge the supporting strength of 5610. So watch the following reference points next week and one should get some idea about the market movement.


Directional Indicator : [5610] - [6197] - 6442* - 6618 - 6664 - 6690 - 6804* - 6954* - [7478]

GVI Forex B Zlog 12:14 GMT March 7, 2009
Forex Blog: he Law of Unintended Consequences
Reply   
Could it be just a matter of ratings and accounting changes needed? Worth a read:

The Law of Unintended Consequences

SG Awesome Trader 03:22 GMT March 7, 2009
NFP call

Amman wfakhoury 13:12 GMT March 6, 2009
NFP call: Reply
the rise in eur.usd and gbp.usd was the early action ahead of
NFP data , so I dont expect big rise after data , the market will rise a little then decline.
eur.usd is good to short around 12720-30 and tp around 12630

--------

Well Done !!! Cheers !

 




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