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Forex Forum Archive for 03/16/2009

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:48 GMT March 16, 2009
RBNZ Could Resort To Concerted FX Intervention-RBC
Reply   
RBC Capital Markets says RBNZ could intervene in FX market to sell Kiwi, especially as recent rise in NZD and swap rates undermine bank's easing efforts. Strategist Sue Trinh says despite RBNZ's 525 bps of easing since last July, effective mortgage rate in NZ has fallen only 7-9 points; adds following last week's 50bp cut, 2-year swap rates rose 40 bps, while NZD rose close to 5% on trade weighted index basis. "Against this backdrop, and where the threat of ratings agency downgrades persists, the currency is just about the only release valve for the economy. We will not be surprised to see the RBNZ resort to FX intervention." RBNZ intervened in June 2007 for 1st time since NZD was floated in 1985; it intervened a few more times the following months before sitting back as Kiwi started coming off. NZD/USD last at 0.5290
dj

Munich Peter 23:39 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd

Viies, your 19:23 post saying "on the other hand lot of talks regading eastern europe problems which by my view nonsense." Why do you view it as nonsense, what about all the inflated real estate prices in many eastern european countries like Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Russia with overleveraged loans in SF and yen? Eager to hear you on this from the Balticum since you are somewhat an inside observer :)

GVI Forex Blog 21:50 GMT March 16, 2009
AIG
Reply   
Interesting read:

AIG's Tangled Web

London NYAM 21:45 GMT March 16, 2009
Theme

RFLMFAO

USA ZEUS 21:19 GMT March 16, 2009
Theme
Reply   
USA ZEUS 03:19 GMT March 10, 2009
SP 500 has bottomed out:
There have been many bottom pickers trying to time the equity markets without success.

We feel compelled to announce that at 677 the S&P 500 futures market hit a major reversal point and anticipate a fantastic rally ahead.

Happy Day!

USA ZEUS 21:40 GMT February 11, 2009
Copper
Copper is the key.


_________________________________________________
Still valid. Bold men take action.

Syd 20:57 GMT March 16, 2009
* National * Breaking News * Obituaries * Special Reports * News Video * W
Reply   
SYDNEY will be ringed by an arc of joblessness as the economy deteriorates, and some relatively affluent areas also face steep increases in unemploymentLINK

GVI Forex john 20:35 GMT March 16, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Click on Hyperlinks below for Updated Charts

20:32

 USD

pips

10yr

bp

2yr

bp

Stox

 

pts

USD

 

 

2.960

8.0

0.99

2.0

 

 

 

EUR

0.01309

(12791)

3.140

8.0

1.35

2.0

DAX

4045

91

GBP

1.4058

69

3.030

8.0

1.46

7.0

FTSE

3864

110

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

1.1847

(10)

2.200

1.0

0.55

3.0

SMI

4816

89

JPY

98.23

24

1.300

(2.0)

0.42

0.0

NIK

7704

135

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAD

1.2724

1

2.880

(6.0)

0.98

(2.0)

TSE

8395

109

AUD

0.6594

23

4.300

2.0

2.67

4.0

ASX

3348

3

NZD

0.53

58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNY

6.8380

(10)

SSEC

2153

24

 

DJIA

7217

(7)

Gold

924.12

(4.85)

HSI

12977

451

 

S&P

754

(3)

WTI

47

1.14

 

 

 

 

NAS

1404

(27)

Tallinn viies 20:27 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
bobl - no need to listen me :)

reason in my view to be honest is positioning. too many guys have been short euros.

at the moment this euro upmove is clearly cleaning up the table from weak shorts...

GVI Forex Jay 19:56 GMT March 16, 2009
Post 19:41

You know me well and I appreciate any feedback we get and take it seriously. However, I would rather see some constructive suggestions as to how to make it better. We treat it as a sentiment indicator and for that we find it very useful.

San Diego bobl 19:53 GMT March 16, 2009
beauty contest
Reply   
Vies...
That's funny and a great way to sum it up! It appears that the USD is picking up a couple bids, but certainly nothing to all worked up about. Funny ....

gl/gt

Atlanta South 19:51 GMT March 16, 2009
Post 19:41
Reply   
Jay,
If you & the members like the idea.....thats great & that all that matters, not what Zeus, myself or anyone else has to say, but thats just our thought & nothing more. Not trying to be critical by any means. Enjoy.

GVI Forex Jay 19:41 GMT March 16, 2009
Your 18:00 Post

You guys can be a piece of work. At least give us and those who participate credit for adding to the value of the forum. if you don't find it useful, then ignore it. Better yet, participate in the poll and add to its value.

Atlanta South 19:33 GMT March 16, 2009
Your 18:00 Post
Reply   
USA ZEUS,
I have got to agree. Good to see you posting again...if you are.

Tallinn viies 19:23 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
San Diego bobl 18:22 GMT - I over simplified the issue. US has been and will stay financial center of the world.

I am saying that most of americans believe that things are much worser in europe than in their country. europeans do know that things are bad due to the funding problems but they have feeling that even american banks are getting rid of toxic assets thnks to helpful obama then lost business and over valued mortgage and credit card bubble will hit it even worser.
on the other hand lot of talks regading eastern europe problems which by my view nonsense.

so I was trying to say this is beauty contest which is uglier. Europe or US.

Belgrade AS 18:58 GMT March 16, 2009
What's going on?

too bad noone replied to the crutial question "wtf is going on?" ...read an article earlier today where something very interesting was stated...if s&p500 finds resistance in 780 mark (not sure it will become a fact of any kind , yet),then eur/usd have a legitimate entry point for long positions at 1.2840/35...
(mart 11. and 12. highs + martch 13. lows)...targets stay as they were last 10 days : 1.3350 (+/- 20-30) and 1.3600(+/- 50)
hope i contributed some...

London MM 18:41 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd

All you need is 2 Noble prize laureates.

NYC ET 18:38 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd

JP. it would be a great idea. Great spreads, tight lending standards.

Mtl JP 18:37 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd

NYC ET sounds like a near 100% sure thing: wanna start a loan - making bank ?

NYC ET 18:30 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd

I think it is well recognized now that they have to stabilize the financial system and get the banking system functioning or there can be no economic recovery. New bank lending must be incredibly profitable with a zero cost of funds. Problem is to get the toxic assets off the books without making banks insolvent.

Mtl JP 18:27 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd

Tallinn viies -- in a FIAT (i.e. declaratory) system on "money" deflation has a snowball's chance in h3ll.

care to put some defining paramaters on what you mean by deflation and inflation plz (how would you distinguish one from another and more importantly where does one end and the other begin ? 3% fluctuations btw, do not count as defining edges for either. tia

London MM 18:27 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd

Interesting view and supported by what we see in the equity markets, with investors keen to put their money into banking stocks, seeing as the US administartion is happy to blow away most of it's tax payers money to pay bonuses to those responsible for this meltdown. Pretty safe investment as every time the balance sheet looks weak, more tax payers money is thrown at it. And in the UK same thing happens, except out dear leader is not as good looking.... It's called money for old rope.

NYC ET 18:23 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd

Maybe it is more like the core EZ view and the rest of the world.

San Diego bobl 18:22 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd

Vies ...
Yes, that's one way to put it. But underneath the US has been a market beacon for a long time. The US has firepower both militarily and financially. I'm not in agreement with how that is being used currently..... but I don't necessarily think that it's an "us against them" type of thing. I do believe the markets will tell us the story in and over time. But right now, as you point out, it's a battle. Given time, financial instruments have a pretty good record of straightening things out. It's a complex package now for sure, with many more variables and impressions, but when things get going consistantly again, we'll know from market action, and should be able to find good opportunity. That is one of the great things about FX.........you can play it from any side any time. Which way that is right now? I don't know, that's for sure. Lots of cross-currents out there, and our markets are showing their backside at the moment imho.

gl/gt

Tallinn viies 18:06 GMT March 16, 2009
eurusd
Reply   
bobl - what the market is really trying to say? in my humble opinion it is a fight between american view and all the others view.

chinese and japs and middle east are holding their breath that dollar will not fall apart. evrybody knows the secret but doing the face that everything is in order.

americans I trying to explain to all world that if you are alcoholic and trying to get sober-in order then best medicine is lot of more alcohol (more money to spend out of this hole) a´la tons of drinks should fix the problem.

in europe it is common undertanding that if you have drinking problems you need to stop drinking first and then start to suffer. after time you can live normally again but lot of pain first.

it is a fight between deflation and inflation stories.

Hillegom Purk 18:04 GMT March 16, 2009
Daily guessing game

Fields of fire.

GVI Forex Jay 18:01 GMT March 16, 2009
Daily guessing game

Zeus, we have found it to be a pretty good sentiment indicator. You should participate.

USA ZEUS 18:00 GMT March 16, 2009
Daily guessing game
Reply   
If the so called pros claim that price cannot be predicted then what is the point of playing the daily pin the tail on the Euro while blindfolded? Global Daily Euro Lotto View?

GVI Forex Jay 17:59 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

Tks for the suggestion but I guess we have alot more confidence in our retail traders than other sites. Some of our retail guys are pretty savvy so for now, prefer to make it a general forum poll. Al;so, this survey is conducted in real-time and no chance to stuff the ballot box.

GVI Forex john 17:08 GMT March 16, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Data Preview…
TUESDAY:
Far East/Europe;
JA- Tertiary Activity Index- closely watched- Similar to services PMI seen less weak.
DE- ZEW Survey- closely watched- volatile survey of German Fund Managers.
North America:
US- House Starts /Permits- important- Leading indicators of housing supply.
US- Producer Prices- important- Not as predictive of CPI as some might hope. Easier.

23:50

JA

Jan

Tertiary Activity

Cons: -0.5%

Last: -1.6%

10:00

DE

Mar

ZEW Sentiment

Cons: -7.4

Last: -5.8

10:00

DE

Mar

ZEW Conditions

Cons: n/a

Last: -86.2

12:30

CA

Jan

Mfg Sales

Cons: -5.5%

Last: -8.0%

12:30

US

Feb

House Starts

Cons: 450K

Last: 466K

12:30

US

Feb

PPI

Cons: +0.4%

Last: +0.8%

12:30

US

Feb

PPI x-F&E

Cons: +0.1%

Last: +0.4%

12:30

US

Feb

Bldg Permits

Cons: 510K

Last: 531K

ldn 17:00 GMT March 16, 2009
1
Reply   
los angeles lgm 16:54 GMT March 16, 2009
Yeah...big dogs with big demo accounts...

AZUSA 4x-ed 16:53 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

John and Jay, would there be an interest at your level and among the forum members in having a EUR/USD daily range segregated by forum membership (i.e., institutional vs. retail trader)? Today’s range is already reflective of an institutional position… or at least counter to what other sites publish as being retail trader sentiment.

LA LA 16:35 GMT March 16, 2009
LA reply

tks. Glad I am not alone trying to sort things out./

London MM 16:25 GMT March 16, 2009
LA reply

See it much the same, a certain amount of sceptism re BAC and C and how the sudden turn around happened, I am not really trusting it so just quick scalps until the market reveals itself. The Dow is battling it out between the 50 and 61.8 retrace of last down move, so I expect some resistance around 7400, risk aversion should follow equities imo.

LJ BK 16:18 GMT March 16, 2009
Commodities
Reply   
Oil up on negative action from OPEC, copper up on bearsih inventories, even the worst dog with flees - nat. gas bounced. That should keep a pressure on the usd I believe.

San Diego bobl 16:12 GMT March 16, 2009
LA reply
Reply   
LA...
The market is thin right now and is not committed in any way, shape, or form. Rumor has that a lot of money is sidelined and waiting for some specific barriers to be broken or hold before another round of depth in the markets. It seems like short term forays into the market is the only game in town. It's difficult by my personal standards and views to see what the market is really trying to say. Right now it's a debate, and probably should be treated as such. Better times will expose themselves, just as strong moves takes breaks and moves against the main theme. A lot of traders are rumored to be only making probes into the market right now, waiting and watching for more convincing evidence of change or more of the same. Not a great time to be using leverage right now imho.

gl/gt

LA LA 16:00 GMT March 16, 2009
What's going on?

I will ask the question another way. Does anyone have any good ideas today? I am void.

GVI Forex Jay 15:09 GMT March 16, 2009
Special offer
Reply   
See our special offer in the Help Forum

Maribor 15:04 GMT March 16, 2009
eur/usd forecast

C, that's nice...

London C 14:59 GMT March 16, 2009
eur/usd forecast
Reply   
My forecast range has gotten close on both ends.

London C 10:48 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close : Reply
1.3010-1.3080-1.2980 - week close 1.2920

LA LA 14:55 GMT March 16, 2009
What's going on?
Reply   
Is anyone trading today?

Toronto cd 14:00 GMT March 16, 2009
cad

tq, nice one (if you got long) in usdcad

Chicago tq 13:13 GMT March 16, 2009
cad
Reply   
possible long usdcad w QE hints + cad testing support at 2635.

SG Awesome Trader 12:48 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD
Reply   
Sell
Entry: 1.3060 Target: 1.30 Stop: 1.3080

Doing a Short now...

SG Awesome Trader 12:36 GMT March 16, 2009
Looking for a turning point in euro area…
Reply   
Certainly these times we are not short of bad news. The one worth mentioning last week is the stream of very bad industrial production numbers across Europe that forced us to revise downward our already-gloomy GDP forecast for this year. We now see GDP contracting by 3.5% this year and returning in (marginally) positive territory only in 2010. The main casualty of the euro area crisis will likely be Germany, where industrial production has collapsed since last October in synchronicity with the sudden and abrupt slowdown in global trade.

These are bad times especially for forecasters, whose credibility has been put under severe criticism because of the frequency of revisions during the last few months. In its March Bulletin (http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/mobu/mb200903en.pdf), the ECB notes how since the Lehman bankrupcy the pace of economic revisions – relatively modest in the first half of 2008 – has dramatically increased, mainly due to an unforeseen plunge in key monthly economic indicators and the negative carry-over effects of the deteriorating outlook for the second half of 2008. A welcome defense of our job comes at the end of the box where the central bank claims that “overall, the sharp falls in the projections for euro area GDP growth in 2009 – common across various different institutional and private forecasters – highlight the difficulty in anticipating economic developments in such an uncertain situation”. Bottom line: sorry guys – you’re right – but please try to walk in our shoes…

This, we will get the ugly Jan IP number for the eurozone (March 19), and the final confirmation that the inflation fallout came to a (temporary) halt in February (March 16). However, the inflation descent will re-start in March, when the headline will drop below 1%. I restate my warning: instead of focusing on actual inflation numbers, whose downward trajectory is already sketched until the summer because of a powerful base effect on energy prices, it is worth monitoring closely the movement in the major market measures of inflation expectations, the only ones able – at this juncture – to alter the ECB’s stance. To this extent, note that after the ECB cut, as expected, the EONIA rate is now fixing at around 0.83-0.84%, in line with the recent trend, although the spread on the depo rate has widened a bit with respect to last months. BoF’s Governor Noyer’s claim that ECB rates are closer to the US and UK ones than what appears prima facie, confirms that the current strategy pleases both the hawks and the doves in the Council, and that the refi will settle at 1% and remain there, unless we see a plunge in the 5Y5Y forward inflation swap able to raise major concerns in Frankfurt.

Extracted from http://censored.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/euro-thoughts/2009-03-16.html

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

Sorry not a typo It was a strong view. I had made a similar error in the daily data that I had caught before I published it!

Blore RKG 12:22 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

John, the weekly close number is pulled down by one number 1.2550 in the database. Not able to see this in the individual forecasts (getting old). And equally, not sure if it was typo by the contributor or a strong view.

GVI Forex john 12:16 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

alimin some might have not seen the request. We know that a week ahead estimate is a shot in the dark. My focus was more on direction and magnitude of the bias. In other words €/$ up or down large or small.

Bilad KaL 12:14 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

end of week
1.3400

makassar alimin 12:12 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

john,i guess our friends are more concerned with day to day movement, which means more daytraders

GVI Forex john 12:09 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

End of Week forecasts (not everyone included an estimate)

1.2905
1.2550
1.3225
1.3310
1.3245
1.2838
1.3300
1.3350
1.2488
1.2920
AVERAGE:
1.3013
imho REMARKABLY TAME ON AVERAGE...

GVI Forex john 12:01 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

Survey Results:
Thanks to all who posted! We always like to see wide participation
AVERAGES:
CLOSE: 1.2989
LOW; 1.2904
HIGH: 1.3093
- Distribution bias for €/$: wide but balanced
-Clusters (Stops/Orders?)
LOWS: 1.2800-35, 1.2930-70
HIGHS 1.3040-85, 1.3145-1.3220
- Comments encouraged!

Low	high	close	spread
1.2805	1.3075	1.2860	0.0270
1.2750	1.3040	1.2800	0.0290
1.2730	1.2900	1.2850	0.0170
1.2835	1.3045	1.2905	0.0210
1.2830	1.3100	1.2950	0.0270
1.2965	1.3085	1.2995	0.0120
1.2945	1.3060	1.2995	0.0115
1.2953	1.3068	1.3008	0.0115
1.2800	1.3080	1.3010	0.0280
1.2930	1.3055	1.3011	0.0125
1.2966	1.3069	1.3023	0.0103
1.2966	1.3200	1.3023	0.0234
CURRENT SPOT= 1.3030
1.2950	1.3150	1.3050	0.0200
1.2967	1.3195	1.3050	0.0228
1.3010	1.3220	1.3110	0.0210
1.2970	1.3145	1.3130	0.0175
1.2990	1.3090	1.3040	0.0100
AVERAGES >>>
1.2904	1.3093	1.2989	0.0189

Munich peter 11:58 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

Sorry, forgot weekly close 1.3275

FL LV 11:50 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

I bet the euro will go back to 1.30 before it reaches 1.3050
gl

Munich peter 11:49 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR High and Low

3090 2990 3040

London MM 11:38 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

High 1.3055, Low 1.2920, Close 1.3011

Bilad KaL 11:38 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR High and Low
Reply   
H and Low
EURUSD
1.3010 to 1.3220

i think we are now on a low

Plovdiv Gotin 11:38 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.3045/1.2835/1.2905

houston st 11:37 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.3060 - 1.2945 - 1.2995

weekly close 1.3245

GVI Forex john 11:36 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.2950-1.3150, 13050 WC 1.3350

London NYAM 11:31 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

H 1.3200
L 1.2966
C 1.3023 // WC 1.33

GVI Forex john 11:25 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

GVI Forex Jay 10:41 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close : On Monday;s poll only, please include your forecast for the close of the week.

eu kaprikorn 11:21 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

H 1.3069
L 1.2966
C 1.3023 // WC 1.2838

houston st 11:21 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.3060 - 1.2945 - 1.2995

I've switched to the June09 euro futures effective yesterday due to the rollover...looking for price to stay close to 1.30 while waiting for a breakout...gl/gt.

GVI Forex Jay 11:15 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

For those (many) who watch and do not take part in our daily poll, erncourage you to participate.

GENEVA DS 11:04 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

RANGE
Entry: H13195 Target: L12967 Stop: WC12488

Think the market is soon maxed out on Euro buyers, the USD shows some strenght already ag JPY and CHF... expect this to carry over to EURUSD during course of week, first more squeezing on upside though.

Chicago SC 10:57 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.3100-1.2830 1.2950 WC=1.3310

GVI Forex john 10:53 GMT March 16, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Data Preview…
MONDAY:
North America:
U.S.- Empire PMI- closely watched- leading regional indicator; seen less weak.
U.S.- TIC- closely watched- capital flows measurement. Not as much of a market factor.
U.S.- Industrial Production- important- seen less weak.
U.S.- NAHB Index- closely watched- Leading real estate indicator. Seen steady.

12:30

US

Mar

Empire PMI

Cons: -33.0

Last: -34.7

13:00

US

Jan

TIC data

Cons: n/a

Last: n/a

13:15

US

Feb

Ind Prod

Cons: -1.0%

Last: -1.8%

17:00

US

Mar

NAHB Index

Cons: 9

Last: 9

GVI Forex Jay 10:49 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

RKG, thanks for the suggestion. We are playing with ideas to forecast end of the week.

Blore RKG 10:48 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

H-1.3145, L - 1.2970, C: 1.3130, WC: 1.3325.
Bit difficult to hazard a weeklyclose - it would be easier to give a wkly high number. The undertone is bullish enough to test the fibo 1.34-37 window this month.

London C 10:48 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.3010-1.3080-1.2980 - week close 1.2920

GVI Forex Jay 10:43 GMT March 16, 2009
QE

Re QE, this is part of a post from a GVI Forex member:

..So nh all in all 60/40 against why use the last salvo just yet. Better to wait to see whether spring brings the signs of natural non stimulated demand...

GVI Forex Jay 10:41 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

On Monday;s poll only, please include your forecast for the close of the week.

GVI Forex john 10:37 GMT March 16, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

EZ HICP

Maribor 10:36 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

H 1,304-L 1,275-C 1,28, weekly close 1,255

GENEVA JFO 10:33 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

eurusd range

1.2805 ============ 1.3075 close 1.2860

makassar alimin 10:31 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1.3068-1.2953-1.3008

NYC JM 10:30 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close

1,3080-1.2965-1.2995 Friday close 1.2905

Hard call today as alot depends on stocks. Even harder to predict the close for the week so placed it as about unchanged.

GVI Forex Jay 10:28 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close
Reply   

Entry: EUR/USD forecast range for the NY session start until today’s close Target: Stop:

We have added a new feature to the daily poll for Monday (rest of the week will only be high-low-close), the close for the week. Please post in the following format for today’s poll:

High-low-close and Friday’s close

We continue to get great feedback on this new daily poll but it works best when you participate. Note poll closes at 12:00 GMT.


Post your forecast for the EUR/USD high-low-close range for the NY session start until today’s close and your forecast for the close for the week.

Click on “reply” to post your forecast and keep it in the same thread


GVI Forex john 09:51 GMT March 16, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Click on Hyperlinks below for Updated Charts

9:47

 USD

pips

10yr

bp

2yr

bp

Stox

 

pts

USD

 

 

2.930

5.0

1.01

4.0

 

 

 

EUR

1.296

38

3.110

5.0

1.36

3.0

DAX

4036

83

GBP

1.4161

172

2.970

2.0

1.44

5.0

FTSE

3810

56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

1.1856

(1)

2.200

1.0

0.55

3.0

SMI

4791

64

JPY

98.15

16

1.300

(2.0)

0.42

0.0

NIK

7704

135

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAD

1.2706

(17)

2.880

(6.0)

0.98

(2.0)

TSE

8303

17

AUD

0.6605

34

4.300

2.0

2.67

4.0

ASX

3348

3

NZD

0.5277

35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNY

6.8391

1

SSEC

2153

24

 

DJIA

7224

0

Gold

925

(3.97)

HSI

12977

451

 

S&P

757

0

WTI

44.06

(1.80)

 

 

 

 

NAS

1432

0

London HC 09:38 GMT March 16, 2009
QE
Reply   
I have a question for the forum.

Market price action suggests QE is viewed as a negative for a currency.

Is this a reason why the USD is weaker ahead of the FOMC meeting in case the Fed buys announces it is buying longer term US treasuries?

Bilad KaL 09:30 GMT March 16, 2009
KaL's Auto Trades

Some getting EURUSD targets as 1.15 in May?

eu kaprikorn 08:37 GMT March 16, 2009
eur/usd
Reply   
weekly 21MA-- 1.3030 tough resistance

Gen dk 08:33 GMT March 16, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 08:15 GMT March 16, 2009
EUR$
Reply   
Hi guys...
Sell EUR$ rallies....watch 1.2990/95. might start to sell from there. GL

BAHRAIN Bahrain1 08:13 GMT March 16, 2009
test
Reply   
test

Syd 06:45 GMT March 16, 2009
Britain showing signs of heading towards 1930s-style depression, says Bank
Reply   
The country is displaying early symptoms of being trapped in a so-called “debt deflation trap” where families find themselves pushed further and further into the red every month, according to a Bank report published today.

The stark warning will cause serious concerns, since it was this combination of falling prices and soaring debt burdens that plagued the US in the 1930s.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/4996994/Britain-showing-signs-of-heading-towards-1930s-style-depression-says-Bank.html

Syd 02:10 GMT March 16, 2009
DJ : UBS Cuts NZ 4Q GDP View On Poor Manufacturing
Reply   
NZ's 4Q weak manufacturing output points to manufacturing sector real GDP fall of 5% on-quarter, UBS senior economist; cuts 4Q GDP view to 1% contraction from 0.3% decline earlier, which if confirmed would mark weakest quarter since 1990/91 recession. 4Q GDP due next week. Says unless some signs economy stabilizing emerge soon, RBNZ will probably need to cut rates to 2% from 3% now; keeps view bank to cut 50 bps at April 30 meeting.

Syd 01:24 GMT March 16, 2009
RBNZ Stuck Between Rock And Hard Place - RBC
Reply   
NZD/USD to fall to post-float low of 0.3800 in coming months, irrespective of RBNZ policy action, says RBC Capital Markets FX strategist Sue Trinh. Says RBNZ's priority is to prevent extensive, sudden capital outflow but central bank "stuck between a rock and a hard place." If falls behind curve amid deepening recession, RBNZ will worsen government's budgetary position, increase risk of rating agency downgrades, prompting large capital outflows. Conversely, if jumps ahead of curve, RBNZ risks wholesale international investor portfolio shift out of NZ into Australia. But, "irrespective of whether the NZ cash rate falls to 2.5% or 2% this cycle, significant capital outflows are inevitable." NZD/USD last 0.5239. Warns with USD currently undergoing a "momentum related sell-off," existing NZD shorts should be wary of extended NZD/USD squeeze toward 0.53-0.54 before downtrend reasserts itself

NYC WSJ 00:42 GMT March 16, 2009
DJ Bernanke:

Fixing the financial system is the priority

Bernanke Defends Recovery Efforts in Rare TV Interview

Syd 00:30 GMT March 16, 2009
Aussie Direction
Reply   
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1062058994&play=1

 




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