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Forex Forum Archive for 07/1/2009

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Jay 23:54 GMT July 1, 2009
Videos

One of the objectives of posting the videos is to spark some discussion on the forum and hopefully turn that into a trade. What caught my eye today was drawing the channel on the 4 hour chart. The other was not to buy against the 10 period 1 hour mva and this provided a good clue for early Far East trading.

Feel free to comment - you don't have to agree.

Gen dk 23:24 GMT July 1, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 21:22 GMT July 1, 2009
$
Reply   
Lahore FM yes I see that too , Kiwi is a hot potato going forward

Recovery may not be sustainable, CBI warnsRichard Lambert, the director general of the CBI, said on Wednesday that the British economy was “undergoing a massive course of steroids” but it was not clear yet where sustainable growth would come from once the medication has worn off.

Britain is facing a reposession timebomb, Vince Cable warned yesterday, as it emerged just six families have been helped by the Government's Mortgage Rescue Scheme. LINK

Lahore FM 20:51 GMT July 1, 2009
NZD/USD Delinking From U.S. Equities, USD -ANZ

no delinking Syd,i guess.today for a change nzdusd is the harbinger of tomm's stox slide.

Syd 20:47 GMT July 1, 2009
NZD/USD Delinking From U.S. Equities, USD -ANZ
Reply   
ANZ Bank "Are we getting set for a roller coaster ride down?" Says delinking of NZD from U.S. equities, USD "may be a sign that offshore participants are finally becoming attuned to domestic factors." Says latest Fonterra online auction showing another fall in milk powder prices, large NZD denominated bond maturities in July weighing on Kiwi. But, "having survived a dip overnight" market will be watching closely AUD, EUR although does not "expect them to deliver directional moves for the NZD given concerns lingering around Uridashi maturities." Tips range of 0.6383-0.6485

Tonbridge AL 20:46 GMT July 1, 2009
Videos
Reply   
SETUP VIDEOS EUR/USD and GBP/USD --VIEW THEM NOW
Daily Trading Videos to set up positions for the next day (videos prepared by Denver/Tonbridge Al). Click on the Wed link on the new video homepage for each video to view the Thursday setup. All other daily links work so you can also review the past week's drama as well.


EUR/USD Video
    
GBP/USD Video

GVI Forex john 20:11 GMT July 1, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Click on Hyperlinks below for Updated Charts

20:10

 USD

pips

10yr

bp

2yr

bp

Stox

 

pts

USD

 

 

3.54

3

1.04

-7

 

 

 

EUR

1.4144

84

3.41

2

1.35

-1

DAX

4905

31

GBP

1.6468

41

3.76

8

1.37

5

FTSE

4341

50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

1.0747

91

2.36

3

0.55

2

SMI

5473

38

JPY

96.60

32

1.35

-1

0.30

-2

NIK

9940

-19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAD

1.1493

97

3.36

-5

1.21

1

TSE

10375

10

AUD

0.8072

11

5.50

-2

3.95

50

ASX

3874

-81

NZD

0.6387

110

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNY

6.83

41

SSEC

3008

49

 

DJIA

8504

-14

Gold

940.22

5.92

HSI

18379

0

 

S&P

923

-2

WTI

69.26

1.90

 

 

 

 

NAS

1846

0

GVI Forex john 19:44 GMT July 1, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

NEW! GVI Forex Chart Gallery. Printable FX Charts

Click for Complete Chart Points

1-Jul-09

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.4151

96.51

1.0746

1.6478

1.1488

High

1.4201

96.98

1.0887

1.6545

1.1654

Low

1.4000

96.17

1.0707

1.6384

1.1451

Simple mva

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

5 day

1.4067

95.97

1.0837

1.6483

1.1552

10 day

1.4006

95.97

1.0837

1.6447

1.1499

20 day

1.3994

96.75

1.0827

1.6375

1.1330

50 day

1.3771

96.67

1.0993

1.5790

1.1478

100 day

1.3403

97.07

1.1274

1.5093

1.1986

200 day

1.3326

95.88

1.1371

1.5269

1.2038

Lahore FM 19:23 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

that's UK Gooner!

Lahore FM 19:21 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

06/30/2009 13:34:24 FM Lahore 3140

audnzd
Entry: 1.2459 Target: 1.2600/1.2900 Stop: 1.2360
long again now at 1.2459 after taking a stop hit of 100 pips earlier.
--
half clsoed 1.2608 now.rest goes clsoe to Gonner's anomalous point.

Lahore FM 19:15 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy gbpaud
Entry: added long 2.0372 Target: Stop: 2.0300

long now

Belgrade TD 18:55 GMT July 1, 2009
OIL

1/3 out on $69.34, new stop on $68.86

lkwd jj 18:53 GMT July 1, 2009
usdcad
Reply   
theres something more going on if usdcad is down and oil is as well.

Lahore FM 18:48 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

AG thanx,i think the memebership is universal.i though get my winnings collected by parents in law.they are mailed to them in uk.

a simple mail to the support will resolve your problem i think.they are very quick to respond.

Ormond beach AG 18:28 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Nice going FM, but megafx not for US citizen or is it possible to still play there (without accepting the prize)? Thanks, AG

Belgrade TD 18:26 GMT July 1, 2009
OIL
Reply   
Buy
Entry: 68.78 Target: Stop: 68.30

support is Monday's low crossing at 68.36, go long from here - first target 69.94

Lahore FM 17:56 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

EU Trendroom,many thanx!

EU trendroom 17:52 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

so WELL DONE FM congrats for your rock solid emotions dealing with FX roller coaster ;)

Lahore FM 17:35 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

today was my 20th win at megafx.com.interestingly i ahve relearnt some trading strategies when in heated competition of a short game duration.

i strongly recommend that if you wish to learn a few things more about trading these free games with real cash prizes would do you lots of good.

Lahore FM 17:30 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

Trendroom,sorry i did not quite finish.the discretion chart reading comes automatically when one has been trading for 17 years.so the simple tools and discretion reading is the combination.

Lahore FM 17:25 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

Trendroom,i am pleased if i had been good enough to get noted.

i use the simple moving averages solely.i am not sure if it is part of quantitative techniques.

thanx!!

Gen dk 17:24 GMT July 1, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

EU trendroom 17:21 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

FM i am really amazed by your performance and i am wondering whether you use any systematic (quantative) trading strategies or you rely on discretion chart eye reading ?

London Gooner 17:18 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies

London Gooner 22:01 GMT June 30, 2009
AUDNZD 1.2843 needs higher
--------------------------------------------------
The 4h double bottoming action, with the maintaining of
1.2535 level, should technically allow the work to anomaly take place.

GENEVA JFO 17:09 GMT July 1, 2009
Long eurusd
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: Target: Stop:

If market can close above 1.4135 we may see above 1.42....
tomorow =======> 1.4270

Good evening All.

I have a fresh beer now :=)

Lahore FM 17:08 GMT July 1, 2009
EUR/GBP

Tony 0.8550 supports the move to 0.8640 and higher.

Gen dk 17:05 GMT July 1, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dubai Tony 17:04 GMT July 1, 2009
EUR/GBP
Reply   
May I please know the outlook for EUR/GBP pair.TIA..

Lahore FM 17:04 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

if anyone is feeling cheated out of fair game i assure you the feeling is shared.

that was one helluva monkey spanner the chinese threw!

Stockholm za 16:40 GMT July 1, 2009
L-T trend of $/CHF


All new modern day indicators for such purpose are under lock and keys deep within the vaults.
However to come close to what you are asking for , you can use some of the traditional oscillating indicators (rsi, cci, etc.) in compatibility with your long term MA that you normally look at in your time frame.
Example... Moving the rsi/cci up on a 100 – 200 period etc. and using the common sense indicator will get you in and out safely.
If you are looking for a more forward looking indicator, those you will have to build for yourself.
Note: - fibs, channels, EW etc are long term forward lookers.
Happy trades..

Maribor 16:28 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

GBPUSD will return to ~1,654...good entry levels are 1,644, 1,637 and below - that depend on risk tolerance...

London Gooner 16:19 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

GBPUSD - 1hour snce 24th looks like shs - also still has anomaly at 1.6185 area.
Price action might be very rough.

London Gooner 16:15 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

Interesting that the market needed a high above 1.4170 and the news came in after candles confimred a new high was looming.
The players are only interested in stops these days it seems.

Penang Eric 16:13 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

what does it mean, should we long or short USD ?

Lahore FM 16:04 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide

a denial or rebuttal or reinter[pretation might be close at hand...an interesting day so far.

GVI Forex john 16:02 GMT July 1, 2009
USD Slide
Reply   
From GVI
CHINA ASKING G8 ITALY SUMMIT TO DISCUSS NEW GLOBAL RESERVE CURRENCY

LA BV 16:01 GMT July 1, 2009
what just happened
Reply   
News??????

Gen dk 15:56 GMT July 1, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sofia kaprikorn 15:51 GMT July 1, 2009
Market Wizards

bobl,
always nice to read your advice!
Trend Following by Covel and Way of the Turtle by Curtis Faith actually made me make a good progress from just looking around for the 'Holy Grail thing' to actually trying to figure out if I had a valid method or system and at that time I realized I was in deep trouble as I haven't got one so again you are right.

As I see it next to method is MM and then will see.
...........

on Algo and stuff I see ZeroHedge is publishing daily on the GS and JPM program trading at the end of the day - but that's out of my reach..

I can't put right now a researched view on those trends but I have observed and that sometimes you watch hourly or daily chart is a mess - but the 4HOUR is giving you a nice trend view - that is exemplary only about the notion I had in mind..

again as well discussed everyone should stick to his own timeframe, method, risk profile in order to survive.. and always try to learn as this is evolving every day as well..
tnx and g/t g/l!

San Diego bobl 15:37 GMT July 1, 2009
Market Wizards
Reply   
Sofia,

You make a very valid point in the value of reading Market Wizards (both 1 and 2). A common theme throughout is, as Jay many times makes the point, KISS methodology. If you recall, I believe it was John Henry, said he could write down his entire strategy to trading on a cocktail napkin. Anyway, chart patterns are valid, always will be imho......fakeouts galore for sure with algo trading. I have been hearing and reading that the dominance of GS in algo autoprograms and arbitrage affairs are under the gun. Will this continue to bring the VIX in.......I don't know. Sophisticated traders like FM can call/play corners with amazing accuracy; I can't. I am so old school that all I can do is trade what looks like a reliable chart pattern, candlestick pattern, and market profile. Although it seems I mention a lot, bottom line is if a 5 yr. child can see if market is up or down, then that is the way I play it, and I think my record is decent by any standard. Reread the Trend Following book by Michael Covel. I believe there is good direction there (for a book).......and I really feel strongly about the abilities, intellect, and simplicity of Ed Seykota. I have traded with him, side by side so to speak, and he is amazing. Like Paul Tutor Jones........you could come into their offices, and whether up or down millions, you couldn't tell by their emotions.........which amazingly don't stand out whatsoever.

gl/gt

GVI Forex john 15:28 GMT July 1, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Thursday will be a major session for data. In Europe, PPI data are another input to the ECB inflation calculus. Later, the ECB decision will be closely watched with y/y HICP moving into negative territory. No rate change is expected. The U.S. sees an active pre-holiday session. Weekly jobless claims should be seen as an early read on the strength of the July employment report. After the ADP data, many estimates for the June NFP report have clibmed to a decline in excess of 400K. Factory Orders and Natural gas inventories are seen unlikely to be market movers.

THURSDAY:
Far East/Europe:
EZ- PPI- important- ECB targets inflation. Seen higher.
EZ- ECB Decision- very important- ECB rate decision and outlook. Seen unch.
North America:
US- Weekly Jobs- very important- early read on employment. See lower claims.
US- Monthlty Employment- very important- Most important release of month. Seen worse.
US- Factory Orders- important- Another industrial economic metric. Seen slightly better.
US- Natural Gas- closely watched- Key component of energy complex.

Upcoming Major Releases:
FRIDAY
CH- CPI
US- Holiday

9:00

EZ

May

PPI yy

Cons: -5.6%

Last: -4.6%

9:00

EZ

May

Unemployment

Cons: 9.4%

Last: 9.2%

9:00

EZ

May

PPI mm

Cons: +0.1%

Last: -1.0%

11:45

EZ

ECB

Rates (1.00%)

Cons: unch

Last: unch

12:30

US

Jun

Rate

Cons: 9.6%

Last: 9.4%

12:30

US

WK

Cont Claims

Cons: 6.74

Last: 6.738m

12:30

US

Wk

Initial Claims

Cons: 615K

Last: 627K

12:30

EZ

ECB

Trichet

Cons: n/a

Last: n/a

12:30

US

Jun

Employment

Cons: -350K

Last: -345K

14:00

US

May

Factory Ords

Cons: +0.8%

Last: +0.7%

14:30

US

DOE

Nat Gas bcf

Cons: +77

Last: +94

20:30

US

WK

Money Stats

Cons: n/a

Last: n/a

Lahore FM 15:19 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Sell
Entry: 1.4141 Target: Stop: 57 bid

sold again.

quite agree Gooner dear.

London Gooner 15:16 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Hi FM
Last 4h candle on London time needs higher than 1.4170.
Reckon it could make 1.4150 is a buy and hold.

tokyo ginko 15:00 GMT July 1, 2009
today movement will mimick a Friday's
Reply   
great play all!

Lahore FM 14:58 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Sell
Entry: 1.4128 Target: 1.3800 Stop: 1.3180

sold afresh after taking a 30 hit.

tokyo ginko 14:55 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel

my system points towards 1.3825 too
GT

chicago 14:51 GMT July 1, 2009
bull
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: Target: 1.4225 Stop:

bullish 1.4225 target today

London Gooner 14:48 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel

sofia kaprikorn
btw - on EURUSD I have the same issue at 1.3825
Just can not confirm if anomaly or not for 100%

Hence I stay out of this pair and wait how ever long it will take for clear view.

sofia kaprikorn 14:47 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel

tnx - I try now very cautiously to approach charts and my own analysis for 2 reasons -
1. my own fallibility to overextend my analysis and conclusions beyond of my clearview

2. because as I see it clearly the markets are way more complex than the examples I have read and tried to trade by - for example the best things I encountered throughout my learning are the Market Wizards books with are 10 years old and even then those traders say that obvious breaks don't happen and many fake moves squeeze weak hands before the real move starts...
.......................

however I'm happy to learn by my own and I see now maybe due to the major shift to algo trading the trends are to be found in specific timeframes.

also due to the instant knowledge today all the textbook patterns are instantly 'KNOWN' - there are so many auto chartist programs - so the Q is if everybody knows something what one should do to make money?

London Gooner 14:31 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel

sofia kaprikorn
-
Thanks. I have same low on my system for EURUSD. The feed could make a big difference if someone has today EBS low that would be usefull -
It is an anomaly or not issue -
The current 4H candle is very bullish though on EURUSD.
Smells the break.

Cairo hesham 14:29 GMT July 1, 2009
gbp
Reply   
To FM: what do u think about the GBP/USD now. Is it a sell?

HK REVDAX 14:26 GMT July 1, 2009
L-T trend of $/CHF
Reply   
Is there any longer term technical indication of $/CHF? Tks

sofia kaprikorn 14:19 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel

Gooner. Sorry no such sources here - only retail brokers - yest 1.4001 - today 1.4000

GVI Forex john 14:12 GMT July 1, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis



Pending homes sales a good predictor of existing homes sales one month ahead.

GVI Forex john 14:09 GMT July 1, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

ISM below consensus but nice gain nevertheless...


Refresh page to see updated chart

EZ/US PMI mfg


London Gooner 13:58 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel

sofia kaprikorn

Re: EURUSD today low. Have you got the EBS low ? Tks.

Jufair KaL 13:52 GMT July 1, 2009
TREND IS MAMBOO

ok jay
sorry guys...have my shift key broke

GVI Forex Jay 13:51 GMT July 1, 2009
TREND IS MAMBOO

Kal, they are asking you to remove the cap lock when you type.

Jufair KaL 13:49 GMT July 1, 2009
TREND IS MAMBOO

SORRY SOFIA...JUST
MAKING MINSTRONI SOUP
RAN OUT BEER TOO
HEHEH

GVI Forex 13:48 GMT July 1, 2009
Data on deck
Reply   
ISM PMI and Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT - see Countdown Clock (above) for consensus forecast and latest reading

sofia kaprikorn 13:46 GMT July 1, 2009
TREND IS MAMBOO

???
KaL - W H Y A R E Y O U S C R E A M I N G
???

Jufair KaL 13:44 GMT July 1, 2009
TREND IS MAMBOO
Reply   


THIS IS 2 SIGMA EXPECTATION
I MEAN WHAT DIFFRENCE DOES IT MAKE
CAN STILL GO TO 6 SIGMA
5-6 BIG FIGURES
OH YEAH NO PROBLEM

lugano fc 13:40 GMT July 1, 2009
stop sell order
Reply   
entering a stop sell order on gbpusd 1.6503 and audusd 0.8085
if done stops 1.6630 and .8150 euruds stop 1.4199 and usdchf stops 1.0720

GENEVA JFO 13:33 GMT July 1, 2009
LONG EURUSD
Reply   
Buy
Entry: Target: Stop:

My post as of today 6:29 GMT

As expexted , we broke 1.4135 level.

If we can close today above 1.4135 then we have a good chance to see 1.4270 tomorow.

GT ALL :=)

London 13:30 GMT July 1, 2009
re-open short
Reply   
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.4168 Target: 1.3820 Stop: 1.4173

Lahore FM 13:28 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy xag
Entry: 13.85 Target: 16.00/18.00 Stop: 13.40

long now.

Lahore FM 13:25 GMT July 1, 2009
usd

Alimin,you are right..open to shift here in any case.

makassar alimin 13:22 GMT July 1, 2009
usd
Reply   
almost everyone is cheering for usd? not a good sign...

Jufair KaL 13:19 GMT July 1, 2009
EURUSD SHORTS
Reply   
THEY ARE NOT FAR FROM HERE I THINK
GL ALL

Jufair KaL 13:19 GMT July 1, 2009
EURUSD SHORTS
Reply   
THEY ARE NOT FAR FROM HERE I THINK
GL ALL

London 13:16 GMT July 1, 2009
short E/U
Reply   
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.4138 Target: 1.3820 Stop: 1.4153

gl/gt

sofia kaprikorn 12:59 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel

USD/CAD reached the projected 1.1475 low
it's making a Outside day - possibly Key reversal

4h chart has a target 1.14005 that I think is possible today
...........

EUR/USD -- expecting an Outside day as today's Low is a pip or two below yesterday's -- so for an outside day lwet's see if 1.4147/51 will be any trouble ahead of 1.4177..

Gen dk 12:56 GMT July 1, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 12:53 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

cad crosses in corrective mode lending weakness to usdcad.in case of a stop out standing aside would be the best thing to do on the pair.

--
Ginko and Stubbs,thanx gentelmen!

Maribor 12:50 GMT July 1, 2009
sentiment
Reply   
GBPCHF is close to the bottom sentiment wise; downtrend may last for some more hours or may not.

GBPAUD nicely gaining sentiment for up despite it is not seen on rate.

GBPCAD sentiment wise still strongly down.

tokyo ginko 12:49 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

thank you for your reply.

likewise am short. am looking at a test of 13980 , looks like oil data will dictate move

GT to u

Manila Stubbs 12:49 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

hats off to you FM as always. g/t

Lahore FM 12:47 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Stubbs perhaps the only difference is that i get to spend more time at the terminals and charts.

lugano fc 12:47 GMT July 1, 2009
order in

sell on stop ...ofcourse

dc CB 12:46 GMT July 1, 2009
Credit
Reply   
Financial Times reports Citigroup (C) has sharply increased interest rates on up to 15 mln US credit card accounts just months before curbs on such rises come into effect, in a move that could fuel political anger at the treatment of consumers by bailed-out banks.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Also yesterday JPM Chase raised the minimum required payment on its cards.

This will do wonders for cash strapped consumers...those supposed to be watering the "green shoots"

lugano fc 12:46 GMT July 1, 2009
order in
Reply   
Sell eurjpy
Entry: Target: Stop:

entered an order to sell eurjpy 136.05....little position as we brake a channell here....but maybie it is a false brake. :-)

Lahore FM 12:43 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Ginko,i was long yesterday and went short today.am stopped once on that short and reentered now.

the rationale is that despite the swings i need a 4 hour chart resolution which indicates possible downside ahead.so keeping short till i get a stronger signal.

Manila Stubbs 12:41 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

you read my mind. why is it that when it comes to usdcad, i seem to enter at almost the same time as you, but when it comes to profit taking, you always get it right and i get left behind to settle for much less than optimum prices? :)

Maribor 12:41 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel

Seems like that after Goldman Sachs paid taxes(read: was stopped out) on long CADMXN, CAD can start gaining strengh again; longer term target for USDCAD is in 1,04 area...

As AUDCAD cross still have the potential to reach higher(as well as lower!), possible near target seems 0,948. In that case USDCAD fall may be delayed...

Lahore FM 12:40 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 07:46 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
Buy usd
Entry: Target: Stop:

sold eurusd 1.4076,stops 1.4110.sold gbpusd 1.6467,stops 1.6520
--
eurusd short stopped,reenetred 1.4105 stops at 32 bid.

Lahore FM 12:38 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy usdcad
Entry: 1.1503 Target: Stop: 1.1460

stubbes just went long.

Stockholm za 12:27 GMT July 1, 2009
Capltal
Reply   

Jufair KaL>>This is not to offend you !!
Even though your post does not warrant a read.
There is a million other ways you can chose to
have your post stand out. on the forum,
without using capital letters.
Capltal letters is hard on the eyes for reading.
Capital letters
Thanks for your corperation..

GVI Forex john 12:23 GMT July 1, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

ADP data updated only...


Click on chart for five-year history

Jufair KaL 12:17 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies



GOONER
MAYBE THIS IS WHAT COMING FROM

Jufair KaL 12:11 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies

anyways
gooner it's something about this 2/3 of the range that has not efficinet exit for a specific entry
lets say want to make a decision now about entry and exit
using the chart and or offset

1.3732 1.4175 = exit for that order
other orders would offseted depending on where the close one used

Jufair KaL 12:03 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies



AGREE GOONER/
THAT'S WHY I DO NOT USING SOMETHING LESS THEN 60 MINUTES...CAUSE THE VARIATION CHANGES SO FAST

CHECK THIS CHART OUT GOONER
I THINK MOST WOULD AGREE

WILL PLAY EURUSD LONG PLAN
USINF THIS CHART
WHICH IS USING HOURLY DATA
THAT OFFSET NUMBER IS MUCH MORE RESONALBE
FOR THE ENTRY
BUT HALF FOR THE EXIT
CLOSE/1.024 (SAY) TO PLACE LONG ORDERS

PROBABLY THE EXIT FOR THAT
CLOSE*(1+.024/2)...cause there something about this half the factor...that i can not really show

GVI Forex Jay 11:59 GMT July 1, 2009
Data on deck
Reply   
12:15 GMT US Jun ADP Jobs -- see Countdown Clock (see above) for consensus forecast and latest reading

sofia kaprikorn 11:56 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel


> USD/CAD - alternative scenario since I see the 1.1555 support is slice atm is that the breakout was fake and we will see he 1.1475 lows revisited again today..
......

> EUR/USD I see significant fact the Low 1.40 held 2 -days and coincides with 20-day MA - that calls for a renewed test of yesterday highs 1.4147/51 - enroute >>> 1.4177

Manila Stubbs 11:46 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

FM, your views on usdcad? appeared to have had the strength to penetrate 1.1630 but retreated back instead. i see higher still.

London Gooner 11:34 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies

Kal,

Is it on USDCHF your question? If so. In case it dips before
reaching anomaly then it's just a better buy eventually.
Same for eurchf due to its own anomaly 1.5380.

London Gooner 11:31 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies

EURJPY 135.48 lower

GVI Forex john 11:31 GMT July 1, 2009
Question Reply
Reply   
In response to an earlier question. overlay charts for 2yr bond differentials and forex pairs can be found at Weekly GVI Forex Forecasts

Link is in the navigation bar above under
"Tools and Data" >>
GVI Forex and Interest Rate Forecasts...

Look in the text which is updated several times over the week.
Charts are updated twice daily.


Jerusalem ML 11:27 GMT July 1, 2009
sub 1.40 later today
Reply   
EUR
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hi All

My bet of the day -

SELL EUR for sub 1.40- later today

GL

Jufair KaL 11:20 GMT July 1, 2009
EURNZD
Reply   
BULLISH
BUYING USING OFFSET
2.203167841 2.176533148

GVI Forex john 11:19 GMT July 1, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Earlier PMI reports. Still need to see numbers above 50...

EZ/US PMI mfg


U.K. PMI mfg


Swiss PMI mfg

GVI Forex john 11:17 GMT July 1, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis

Earlier. Not as strong as hoped for but positive...

BOJ Tankan Survey

Jufair KaL 11:14 GMT July 1, 2009
EURCAD
Reply   
EURCAD LONGS USING OFFSETS POSTED EARLIER NOW 3 LOTS LONG AT AVG 1.6266
TGT 1.6330 AREA

tokyo ginko 10:38 GMT July 1, 2009
EUR/USD
Reply   
Hi FM,

Are u currently long eur/usd ? Were you short eur/usd earlier on?

May I know your rationale for switching?

oh, btw, i am short eur/usd

GT.

GVI Forex john 10:23 GMT July 1, 2009
Videos

SETUP VIDEOS EUR/USD and GBP/USD --VIEW THEM NOW
Daily Trading Videos to set up positions for the next day (videos prepared by Denver/Tonbridge Al). Click on the Tuesday link on the new video homepage for each video to view the Wednesday setup. All other daily links
work so you can also review the past week's drama as well.


EUR/USD Video



GBP/USD Video

Lahore FM 10:10 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Peter closed.i never hedge in the same pair..that's a silly notion!

did not have time to post the close separately.the close was 3 pips above short entry.

in the past i have traded counter trend entries but when there is a medium to long term play in the works and with such mention.

Viet Nam 10:01 GMT July 1, 2009
forexbegindotnet
Reply   
Wednesday, 01 July 2009 10:03 GMT

GBP/USD
Trend : Downward
Sell GBP/USD at 1.6425 Target 1.6395

EUR/USD
Trend : Downward
Sell EUR/USD at 1.4066 Target 1.4036

Jufair KaL 09:50 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies



15 MINUTES DATA
U AGREE GOONER?

Jufair KaL 09:44 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel



SOFIA
THIS IS WHAT I GOT
I REALLY DO NOT LIKE USING 5 MINUTES DATA...BUT THIS IS IT

Jufair KaL 09:38 GMT July 1, 2009
EURJPY LONGS ANYONE?
Reply   


136.8750684 135.4625945
LONG AN TGT

sofia kaprikorn 09:37 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/CAD Daily Trend Channel
Reply   


hello - please take a look at the chart

USD/CAD closed above and now tests the broken trendline Resistance

the pivotal level where trendline resistance >> now support intersects with the trend channel support is around 1.1560..

Viet Nam 09:34 GMT July 1, 2009
censored
Reply   
Wednesday, 01 July 2009 09:35 GMT

GBP/USD
Trend : Downward
Sell GBP/USD at 1.6419 Target 1.6389

EUR/USD
Trend : Downward
Sell EUR/USD at 1.4061 Target 1.4031

Jufair KaL 09:33 GMT July 1, 2009
CABLE SHORT OFFSET



LOOKS BETTER?
OFFSET ON CHART SHOULD WORK WELL IMO
PLACED ORDER TO SHORT
1.653882832 1.630321684

GVI Forex john 09:32 GMT July 1, 2009
GVI Forex Analysis
Reply   

Click on Hyperlinks below for Updated Charts

9:29

 USD

pips

10yr

bp

2yr

bp

Stox

 

pts

USD

 

 

3.53

2

1.09

-2

 

 

 

EUR

1.4067

7

3.41

2

1.35

-1

DAX

4880

5

GBP

1.6430

79

3.70

2

1.33

1

FTSE

4309

18

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

1.0837

1

2.36

3

0.55

2

SMI

5447

12

JPY

96.81

53

1.35

-1

0.30

-2

NIK

9940

-19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CAD

1.1579

11

3.36

-5

1.21

1

TSE

10365

0

AUD

0.8069

14

5.50

-2

3.95

50

ASX

3874

-81

NZD

0.6441

56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNY

6.83

39

SSEC

3008

49

 

DJIA

8447

-71

Gold

931.55

2.75

HSI

18379

0

 

S&P

919

-6

WTI

71.26

0.10

 

 

 

 

NAS

1835

-10

Viet Nam 09:31 GMT July 1, 2009
censored
Reply   
Wednesday, 01 July 2009 09:32 GMT

GBP/USD
Trend : Downward
Sell GBP/USD at 1.6427 Target 1.6397
Supports : 1.6386 - 1.6338
Resistances : 1.6423 - 1.6471

EUR/USD
Trend : Downward
Sell EUR/USD at 1.4063 Target 1.4033
Supports : 1.4020 - 1.3972
Resistances : 1.4057 - 1.4105

Maribor 09:26 GMT July 1, 2009
CABLE SHORT OFFSET

Kal, could you format time axis to show hours and not years...
My best bet for GBPUSD is otherwise [email protected],637 for 1,6515(void if 1,6520 trades first).

Jufair KaL 09:25 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies

GOONER
WITH THE CHART POSTED
WOULD SHORT AND TGT AS 1 ST ORDER

1.087478306 1.078400717

Jufair KaL 09:22 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies



AGREE ON USDCHF
I SEE 1.11 LONGER TERM
I THINK FROM NEXT DAY BUYING

5 MINUTES SEEMS SOUTH FOR A LITTLE WHILE

Munich peter 09:16 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Hello FM, did you close your long eurusd earlier? Or keeping it as hedge?
Lahore FM 15:53 GMT June 30, 2009
Trade Ideas: Reply
Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4019 Target: open Stop: 1.3990

long ..on 2nd thought.

Jufair KaL 09:16 GMT July 1, 2009
CABLE SHORT OFFSET
Reply   


5 MINUTES DATA

SHORT ORDER AND TGT
1.65370609 1.63176716

London Gooner 09:09 GMT July 1, 2009
Price Anomalies

USDCHF 1.1015 higher needed.

Jufair KaL 09:05 GMT July 1, 2009
OFFSET EURUSD



I THINK THE OFFSETS POSTED WERE DOUBLED

SO OK...WILL TRY THE OFFSETS TO BUY EURCAD FOR THE DAY

HALF OFFSETS ON THIS CHART
NOW PLACED AN ORDER TO BUY
1.6330 1.6278

Gen dk 08:58 GMT July 1, 2009 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Jufair KaL 08:54 GMT July 1, 2009
OFFSET EURUSD



LESS TIME FRAME
AND LESS OFFSET
CAUSE 5 MINUTES DATA
THEY ARE MOSTLIKELY BUYING FOR A WHILE
OFFSET ON CHART AGAIN

Jufair KaL 08:49 GMT July 1, 2009
OFFSET EURUSD



USDJPY
OFFSET ON CHART

Jufair KaL 08:43 GMT July 1, 2009
OFFSET EURUSD
Reply   


OK GUYS THIS SHOULD MAKE THINGS EASIER
PLACING MANY SMALL ORDERS IS BETTER THEN A LARGE ON

SO EURUSD WE NOW THINK IT'S A SELL FOR A FEW DAYS

OFFSET IS 1.0111
TO CONSTANTALY PLACE ORDERS
SAY 10 ORDERS INSTEAD OF ONE LARGE
USE THE OFFSET
SHORT= ANYCLOSE*1.0111 TO TAKE THE PATH THE CHART PROVIDES

Mumbai Navin 08:33 GMT July 1, 2009
Help on Fixing Targets
Reply   
Can someone guide me how a profit target is fixed for a trading desk, assuming the organisation has fixed a VaR limit. Eg. if the daily VaR is EUR 100,000, what should be the annual profit target?

sofia kaprikorn 08:22 GMT July 1, 2009
observations..
Reply   
think it's interesting to think what works and what not in present moment...

for example I was focused on the Triangle continuation break in GBP/USD above 1.6600... well this scenario was invalidated by both the lack of explosive move and follow-up after the stops above were hit...
>>> now it bends and the reality is that after that failure I would assume a quick break will see the 34-Day MA at 1.6182 - maybe even today..


the other signal was the same reversal in EUR/USD which seemed to build a bullish structure but failed again below the previous 1.4177 high...

also do not be surprised by a talk of H&S building in S&P to start next week...

Lahore FM 08:20 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

ML,anything in 1.39 and under is what i think is likely.

Lugano FC,i won't raise the stop.looking for mid to lower 1.39 at least.

lugano fc 07:55 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

hi fm think that will not take your stops but i would at least give 10pips more to them...

your targets? 3910/20 first to close half?

Jerusalem ML 07:48 GMT July 1, 2009
hi Lahore
Reply   
usd
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hi

where do yo usee $ heading by end of day - 1.39 possible??

Thnx

lugano fc 07:48 GMT July 1, 2009
buying some usd
Reply   
Buy usd
Entry: Target: Stop:

short eurusd and long usdchf4080 0820 stops activation level 1.4155 (means only if that is printed will then think a stop or close....)

Lahore FM 07:46 GMT July 1, 2009
Trade Ideas

Buy usd
Entry: Target: Stop:

sold eurusd 1.4076,stops 1.4110.sold gbpusd 1.6467,stops 1.6520

Amsterdam Purk 07:39 GMT July 1, 2009
forecasts

Hillegom Purk 17:20 GMT June 29, 2009


Ozmond dollars: it starts again: short 8079 and 8083.
exit: 8033, and 7611... it will get there...

_____________

The 8033 was hit during a strange spike down, and i just took 8075 back for a spin to 8022. I will keep the other half of course for 7611, it will go there, patience...

Mtl JP 07:35 GMT July 1, 2009
Need some help from NFP

Eric 07:29 / in menu bar:
Tools & Data
Economic Calendar

Penang Eric 07:29 GMT July 1, 2009
Need some help from NFP

when is the NFP meeting make ?

Montréal Taro 07:28 GMT July 1, 2009
mail
Reply   
London Gooner
You have mail, have a good day!

Mysore Forexveda 07:01 GMT July 1, 2009
Need some help from NFP
Reply   
Buy GBP/USD
Entry: 1.6350 Target: 1.6950 Stop: 1.6250

NFP normally gives a good opportunity to make high RRR trades. We may see Euro and GBP higher just before NFP release. One can buy and hold large quantity of longs 2 or 3 hours before NFP and chances are very high that you get a chance to move stop to cost minutes before data. I may not buy around 1.6350 today if I get th level, but prefer to wait for a good level tomorrow in early europe session.

Jufair KaL 06:34 GMT July 1, 2009
LONG EURUSD



VERY GOOD GEN/
HOURLY CHART

GENEVA JFO 06:29 GMT July 1, 2009
LONG EURUSD
Reply   
Still sitting on my long eurusd bought 3 weeks ago at 1.3786.

Waiting for a upside break located at 1.4135.

Target 1.4770

GT ALL :=)

Jufair KaL 06:27 GMT July 1, 2009
EURUSD
Reply   


EURUSD NEED TO CORRECT TILL LATER DROP

Jufair KaL 06:20 GMT July 1, 2009
USDJPY NORTH



THIS IS BETTER

Jufair KaL 06:19 GMT July 1, 2009
USDJPY NORTH
Reply   


96 IS MINIMUM FOR FEW DAYS

Syd 05:46 GMT July 1, 2009
AUD/USD Drops On Stop-Loss Selling
Reply   
Phil Burke, chief trader at JPMorgan says there was not a lot behind selling, with Asia session being largely uninspiring. Liquidation of long positions the major spark to fall which pushed pair down from 0.8060 to 0.8025 in matter of minutes. Burke sees some downside risk with pair seemingly struggling to sustain gains above 0.8000

Hillegom Purk 04:57 GMT July 1, 2009
usd/jpy
Reply   
Hillegom Purk 17:30 GMT June 26, 2009
re Scams: Reply
i love madams! Welcome!

as for usd/jpy. After the adding and thinning time to start all over again. 95,157 in, and adding.

________________________________
Taking another one of here at 96,80. rest stays at b/e +20 for 100. Will add if 95 is seen again, will post.

dc CB 02:45 GMT July 1, 2009
If this happens
Reply   
If this happens then give it all up, move to Fiji with whatever money you can scrape together, live in a grass skirt until you die of whatever.....it is all rigged and there is no hope atoll:)

Unless you are an "insider". Then meet you at...what was the tee off time?

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/aig-to-repay-us-183b-also-pigs-soon-to-fly/
__________________________________________________
“We believe there is an excellent chance that we can repay the government.”

-AIG Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy

“American International Group Inc., the insurer bailed out by the U.S., has an “excellent chance” of repaying the government, outgoing Chief Executive Officer Edward Liddy said today at the company’s annual meeting. AIG plans to reduce its debt under a Federal Reserve credit line by $25 billion by handing over stakes in two non-U.S. life insurance units, the insurer said last week. The New York-based company has tapped about $40 billion from the line.

AIG has received four bailouts, totaling $182.5 billion, after agreeing in September to turn over a majority stake to the U.S. when the company was overwhelmed by losses on bets tied to the housing market. In addition to a $60 billion credit line, the rescue includes $52.5 billion to buy mortgage-linked assets owned or insured by the company, and an investment of as much as $70 billion.

Syd 02:12 GMT July 1, 2009
$aud
Reply   
JPMorgan expects second half of the year the Australian consumer is going to be facing significant headwinds - not only will the cash handouts precipitate but unemployment is set to rise and oil prices are rising.

Syd 02:06 GMT July 1, 2009
Jobs Data in OZ
Reply   
Slump in Australian skilled vacancies index, down 3.7% in June vs May - continuing monthly freefall evident since late 2007 - suggests employment weakness to return, says TD Securities' Annette Beacher; "It's increasingly likely that the outsized employment gains/reduced losses" in recent employment data for April, May, were a pause after prolonged weakness. Expects correction in June data, due July 9, with employment falling by 20,000 people, jobless rate picking up to 5.9%, and 8% by year-end. As GDP flatlines, unemployment surges, TD thinks RBA will be prompted to lower official cash rate, which, at 3%, still highest real cash rate in developed world.
TD Securities'

Tokyo Tommy 01:46 GMT July 1, 2009
$

I closed my position exactly 96.90

Thank you!!

Syd 01:41 GMT July 1, 2009
$
Reply   
Mtl JP 01:39 GMT exactly - plan the trade and trade the plan <{:-)

LA LA 01:39 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/JPY

Tommy. Impressive trade.

Mtl JP 01:39 GMT July 1, 2009
Dollar Bulls Predict Gains of Up to 17%

SYD potentially big pips waiting to be made:

China's banks are an accident waiting to happen to every one of us
Fitch Ratings has been warning for some time that China's lenders are wading into dangerous water

just the tiny matter of timing left.

Syd 01:32 GMT July 1, 2009
Australia May Adjusted Retail Sales +1.0%; Consensus +0.5%
Reply   
Australia May Value Of Building Approvals -12.3% On Month May Private-Sector House Approvals -2.0% On Month
Australia May Residential Bldg Approvals -22.4% On Year Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Down 2% At 3875.6
Australia May Residential Bldg Approvals -12.5% On Month

Tokyo Tommy 00:52 GMT July 1, 2009
USD/JPY
Reply   
Buy USD/JPY
Entry: 96.30 Target: 96.90 Stop: 95.581

looks like uptrend

Syd 00:42 GMT July 1, 2009
New Zealand Dollar Set To Fall
Reply   
Weak economic data leads TD Securities to suggest the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will again cut interest rates, a move it expects will see the currency fall by 5-10%.
http://www.fnarena.com

 




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