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Forex Forum Archive for 01/05/2010

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Lahore FM 23:46 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

Found this from the net:

overview of the relationship between fundamentals and the DOW over at zerohedge:

GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
125K+ jobs lost from GM chapter 11 = PRICED IN
unemployment @ 9% = BETTER THAN EXPECTED
unemployment @ 10% = DOW SOARS
unemployment @ 11% = GREEN SHOOT RALLY
unemployment @ 12% = ALREADY FACTORED IN
unemployment = 35% = DOW DROPS 100 POINTS
housing price =1% = RECESSION ENDING
housing collapses = GREEN SHOOT
Housing falls 20% = STABILIZATION
Government spends 1 trillion of OUR dollars = STIMULUS
North Korea fires nuke = RALLY
Israel bombs Iran = 30 MINUTE END OF DAY RALLY
world explodes = ASIA RALLIES
PMI crashes = HUGE RALLY
No jobs are created = RECESSION ALMOST OVER
U.S. debt overwhelming = TOO BUSY RALLYING TO CARE
Consumer stops spending = RETAIL RALLY
Banks are insolvent = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
American auto industry BK = GOOD THING
Banks pass scam stress tests = HUUUUUUUUGE RALLY
Banks “only need 75 billion = OUT OF THE WOODS
Banks pass a real stress test = NEVER WOULD HAPPEN
Banks pay back tarp = LATE DAY SURGE
Banks can’t pay back TARP = EARLY MORNING SURGE
12% mortgage delinquency = GOOD FOR STOCKS
Hundreds of thousands of mortgages underwater = HOUSING BOTTOMED
Dollar rises = RALLY
Dollar crashes = RALLY
Inflation = BULL MARKET
Deflation = BULL MARKET CONTINUES
REFLATION = MASSIVE SHORT COVERING RALLY
Gold rises = STOCKS RALLY
Gold falls STOCKS RALLY BIG
Banks’ fake earnings = SIGNS OF STABILIZATION
CRE stabilizing= 1000 POINT RALLY
CRE CRASHING = STOCKS SHAKE IT OFF TO RALLY
CONSUMER INSOVENT = CONSUMER IS SPENDING
OIL @ 50 = BULL RALLY
OIL @ 60 = GREEN SHOOT
OIL @ 100 = IMPORTANT RECOVERY SIGN
OIL @ 20 = TAX BREAK

FW CS 23:44 GMT January 5, 2010
jpy
Reply   
USA ZEUS 23:23 GMT January 5, 2010
Mighty Zeus, what are your thoughts on the Yen? I am getting the feeling that it may strengthen along with the $. 20$/Jpy looks like it wants to tank if 91.20-91.50 cannot hold look out.

GVI Forex Blog 23:28 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   

Stocks Waver after Steep Drop in U.S. Pending Home Sales

GVI Forex Blog 23:27 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   

Dollar Set Up for Short-Term Rally Following Reversal Bottom

USA ZEUS 23:23 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD

LA LA 19:21 GMT January 5, 2010

Appreciate the lack of criticism- will take that as a compliment! ;-)

Cheers!

USA ZEUS 23:22 GMT January 5, 2010
Gold

FW CS 18:45 GMT January 5, 2010

CS- Agree with that- Trade USD stronger then buy more physical for the big haul...back up the truck! Currency Craziness is coming down the road. I hope people will be prepared and protect their wealth and have a substantial food storage.

Cheers and welcome to the year of record trading profits!

Syd 23:16 GMT January 5, 2010
Pimco's Clarida Sees No Fed Rate Rise Before Late 2010
Reply   
LINK

BNP’s Redeker Says Yen to Weaken ..LINK

Fahrenheit 451 for Cash-Strapped UK Seniors
Some cash-strapped British pensioners are buying books from charity shops and burn them to keep warm as freezing temperatures gripped the UK, a London newspaper reported Tuesday.

USA ZEUS 23:15 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

Run Forest!

Wall Street 23:02 GMT January 5, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: Fed's Hoenig - Consider Breaking Up Big Banks

Does no one remember all the big bank failures when relatively they were much smaller under Glass Steagal? That was the main argument for letting them become mega-banks. There is no easy solution, but it could start with putting serious pressure on the accounting firms to do their job for the shareholders who are paying them.

Mtl JP 21:50 GMT January 5, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: Fed's Hoenig - Consider Breaking Up Big Banks

Syd 21:25... There is a one or two page piece of legislation in Congress alleging to limit banks activities. But IF internet and people power combine and kick in as Stephanie Frost Documents Closing Her Account With Bank Of America, Switching To Community Bank - huffington

"... After seeing "Move Your Money," she's decided to close her account with Bank of America and move her money to a community bank. She posted this video (ya, she appears to have a bit a self-serving mouth) on YouTube documenting her trip to BofA to end their relationship, the problem Hoening thinks banks present may "poof".

Sofar BAC is up last few days.

GVI Forex Blog 21:40 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
The Canadian dollar touched a 2-1/2-month high against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as the greenback sagged and the commodity-linked currency got a lift from strength in oil prices.

Forex Martket News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ climbs as oil heads toward $82

GVI Forex Blog 21:39 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
The dollar fell the most against the yen in nearly a month on Tuesday as weaker-than-expected U.S. housing data dampened expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve could hike rates sooner rather than later.

FOREX NEWS-Dollar falls vs yen on housing data, rate outlook

Syd 21:25 GMT January 5, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: Fed's Hoenig - Consider Breaking Up Big Banks
Reply   
It's necessary to mull how banks that are considered too big to fail can be broken up so they no longer pose a systemic risk to the US economy, said Kansas City Fed Pres Thomas Hoenig. "Beginning to break them, to dismember them, is a fair thing to consider," Hoenig told a a panel at the meeting of the American Economics Assoc in Atlanta. An initial way to define too big to fail banks could be to take firms that have $50 bln or more in assets or have $100 bln or more in assets under management, he said.

Top-rated bond manager Dan Fuss of Loomis Sayles he sees the dollar trading steady versus the EUR, JPY and GBP in 2010 but expects weakness in the dollar versus AUD, CAD and Asian currencies.
DJAUD/USD Has Key Resistance At 0.9185 - BarCap
The Head and Shoulders topping scenario looked for in AUD/USD has been invalidated by Monday's close above 0.9070 says Barclays Capital. Overbought signals suggest a day or so of range trading ahead between 0.90 and trendline resistance at 0.9185, however a daily close above the latter is a sign to turn aggressively bullish with a target of 0.94 says the bank.

GVI Forex Blog 21:11 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
TRADING SCENARIO- Forex trading will now start to focus on the monthly employment data due on Friday. This attention will start with the ADP private employment estimate for December due early Wednesday.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View: Unexpected Carry Trade Unwind

GVI Forex john 21:08 GMT January 5, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

5 January 2010

Unexpected Carry Trade Unwind

21:00 GMT - TRADING SCENARIO- Forex trading will now start to focus on the monthly employment data due on Friday. This attention will start with the ADP private employment estimate for December due early Wednesday.

MORE...

Syd 20:22 GMT January 5, 2010
Fed may re-enter MBS market later in 2010 - Market News
Reply   
Wall Street we will see :-)
NEW YORK, Jan 5 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is discussing re-entering the mortgage-backed securities market later this year if its buying power is needed to hold down interest rates, Market News said on Tuesday in a
story citing Fed officials.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idU
SN0530695520100105?type=marketsNews

Syd 20:04 GMT January 5, 2010
Canada plans euro bond to diversify forex reserves
Reply   
Canada plans euro bond to diversify forex reserves
TORONTO/OTTAWA, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Canada said on Tuesday it plans to issue a euro benchmark bond, its second foreign bond of the fiscal year, to further diversify financing for its foreign currency reserves.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLD
E60416020100105?type=usDollarRpt

Wall Street 20:03 GMT January 5, 2010
Pimco Executive: 80% Risk of U.K. Downgrade

Syd- interesting re BOK. Wondering if they will be in again on Wednesday (rhetorical question).

Syd 19:57 GMT January 5, 2010
Pimco Executive: 80% Risk of U.K. Downgrade
Reply   
LONDON—The U.K. government faces an 80% chance of a credit-rating downgrade if its deficit reduction plans remain as they are, according to Scott Mather, Pacific Investment Management Co.'s head of global portfolio management.
Link
Chancellor Darling says the UK deficit reduction bill must not harm the economy. To cut the deficit further and faster would damage the economy he says

Asian central bank rumored limiting EUR, GBP dips
Traders report that an Asian central bank has been spotted on the bid - Bank of Korea intervened to the tune of $2 bln to buy dollars versus won, now buying EUR and GBP to diversify reserves.

Nikkei reports that Japanese FinMin Fujii’s resignation has been accepted. The names of Deputy PM Kan as well as DPJ officials Sengyko and Noda have been floated as possible successors.

Fitch cuts Iceland’s credit rating
Icelandic president earlier today vetoed a plan to payoff the UK government which made good on savings “frozen” when Icesave collapsed. Government’s debt rating is being downgraded to BB+ from BBB- and left on review for further downgrade by Fitch.

Canada is issuing bonds denominated in euros to diversify forex reserves…

Meredith Whitney Cuts Goldman Sachs Estimates Again

Wall Street 19:25 GMT January 5, 2010
Carry Trades
Reply   
Risk trades are being removed. Wondering if Crude will hold $80.00?

LA LA 19:21 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD

No complaints about Mr Zeus toiday

GVI Forex Blog 18:57 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   

Housing Report Weakens USD JPY

USA ZEUS 18:46 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD

Offloaded remaining EUR/USD here @ 1.4348 to reload later.

Cheers!

FW CS 18:45 GMT January 5, 2010
Gold

Mighty Zeus
good to see you again. Nice to see we have the same ideas I was short Euro from 1.4404 and short 1124 gold today as well. I think whatever down moves we have in these will not last too many more days maybe Euro 1.38-1.40 or so then gold 1090-1100 again.

USA ZEUS 18:41 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

Humpty Dumpty (GBP/USD) can be relaxed some here @ 1.5970.
USD is aligned for more strength.

EUR/USD and Humpty Dumpty can be reloaded on rallies for now.

Zeus out.

USA ZEUS 18:39 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD

NYC JM 18:34 GMT January 5, 2010

Thanks JM!
GLGT!

NYC JM 18:34 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD

Zeus, good timely calls today.

USA ZEUS 18:34 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD

1.4365 is a good place to take some gains then reload later.

USA ZEUS 18:25 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

HK Kevin 16:30 GMT January 5, 2010

Thank you Kevin.
Best to you sir!

USA ZEUS 18:16 GMT January 5, 2010
Climate Change

Will go spool up my Citation X and burn some kerosene to warm things up a bit.

USA ZEUS 18:12 GMT January 5, 2010
Climate Change

Let's see how they overcome the facts "...one of the coldest winters for decades.." with figures. After all- figures never lie and liars never figure.

Go figure.

USA ZEUS 18:08 GMT January 5, 2010
Climate Change

Should delay the new world order for a while anyhow

USA ZEUS 18:03 GMT January 5, 2010
Climate Change

A far cry from Phil Jones and the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) in the United Kingdom.

USA ZEUS 18:00 GMT January 5, 2010
Climate Change

A return to the Ice Age for Al Gore?

PAR 17:57 GMT January 5, 2010
Climate Change
Reply   
Let it become WARMER .


A WALL STREET JOURNAL ONLINE NEWS ROUNDUP
The U.K. and France were bracing themselves for a front of severe weather Tuesday as heavy snowfall and ice in Britain caused widespread disruption to air, rail and road networks.

Hundreds of British schools were shut, airports were closed and rail services delayed as the U.K.'s Met Office issued an "extreme weather" alert and Europe continued to struggle with one of the coldest winters for decades.
France the west of the country has been placed on high alert in preparation for heavy snow falls on Tuesday evening. France's meteorological office, Météo-France, warned that that sub-zero temperatures in the Normandy and Brittany regions could result in travel chaos and affect businesses.

Residents in Brittany were also cautioned that the cold snap could put local power generators under strain and have been asked to reduce their electricity consumption on Tuesday evening. In some parts of western France drivers have been advised by Météo-France to cancel their journeys unless absolutely necessary.


USA ZEUS 17:51 GMT January 5, 2010
Gold
Reply   
Spot gold is 1121.57- Is it about to get hammered off a cliff?

dc CB 17:25 GMT January 5, 2010


ZIRP forever

lkwd jj 17:23 GMT January 5, 2010
cable
Reply   
lkwd jj 15:22 GMT January 5, 2010
trade idea: Reply

Entry: 16050 Target: 15875 Stop: 16105

as per my earlier posts, i feel this level is a good shorting point. gl gt
---------------------------
covered some below figure

PAR 16:58 GMT January 5, 2010
2000 - 2010 EURO Software
Reply   

Berlin - A "year 2010 problem" which surprised software experts has crippled microchips in millions of German payment cards, causing automatic teller machines to swallow what appear to be expired cards. The DSGV German banking association said Tuesday the problem still affected most credit cards when they were used to withdraw money.

One day earlier, the ZKA national credit-industry committee said it expected direct-debit cards issued by the banks to soon be safe to use again with banks fixing the software problem by late Monday.

Like the "year 2000" problem, in which old software was not designed to recognize any date after 1999, the new glitch was caused by a software error that treats the year 2010 as if it does not exist.

GVI Forex Blog 16:33 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are set for release from the Far East on Wednesday. In Europe, the highlight will be the Service PMIs. In North America, ADP Jobs numbers and the ISM Service PMIs will be closely scrutinized. Weekly energy data can move prices. The latest Fed minutes are a highlight as well

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for January 6, 2010

Lahore FM 16:31 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

12/31/2009 07:38:44 FM Lahore 33

Sell eurjpy
Entry: 133.10 Target: Stop: 134.40
short on the pair now.
--
half closed now at 131.78.

GVI Forex john 16:30 GMT January 5, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are set for release from the Far East on Wednesday. In Europe, the highlight will be the Service PMIs. In North America, ADP Jobs numbers and the ISM Service PMIs will be closely scrutinized. Weekly energy data can move prices. The latest Fed minutes are a highlight as well.

8:58

EZ

Dec SVC PMI

51.6

51.2

9:30

UK

Dec SVC PMI

56.6

56.6

10:00

EZ

Nov PPI mm

0.20%

0.20%

10:00

EZ

Nov PPI yy

-4.50%

-6.70%

10:00

EZ

Oct New Ind Ord mm

-1.10%

1.50%

10:00

EZ

Oct New Ind Ord yy

n/a

-16.50%

12:00

US

WK Mtg Stats

n/a

n/a

13:15

US

Dec ADP Jobs

-75K

-169K

15:00

US

Dec SVC PMI

50.3

48.7

15:30

US

DOE Crude Oil

unch

-1.5m

15:30

US

DOE Gasoline

400K

-300K

15:30

US

DOE Distillate

-1.9m

-2.0m

15:30

US

DOE Cap Util

80.70%

80.30%

19:00

US

Fed Minutes

n/a

n/a

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

0:30

AU

Nov Retail Sales

0.30%

0.30%

0:30

AU

Nov Trade A$bln

-1.8

-2.379

8:15

CH

Dec CPI mm

0.10%

0.20%

8:15

CH

Dec CPI yy

0.50%

0.00%

10:00

EZ

Nov Retail Sls mm

0.10%

0.00%

10:00

EZ

Nov Retail Sls yy

-1.80%

-1.90%

11:00

DE

Nov Ind Ord mm

1.50%

-2.10%

12:00

UK

BOE Rates (0.50%)

unch

unch

13:30

US

Wk Initial Claims

n/a

432K

13:30

US

WK Cont Claims

5.175

4.981

15:00

CA

Dec Ivey PMI

n/a

55.9

15:30

US

DOE Nat Gas bcf

-153

-150

HK Kevin 16:30 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

USA ZEUS 16:27 GMT, excellent and timely call.

Lahore FM 16:28 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy usdcad
Entry: 1.0377 Target: Stop: 1.0330

long once more.

USA ZEUS 16:27 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

Up and down round and round like a merry go round.
Once the traders are too dizzy to tell, USD will cast a big spell.

lkwd jj 16:24 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

started to fall...

USA ZEUS 16:21 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

GBP/USD is like Humpty Dumpty sitting on a wall.

GVI Forex Blog 16:20 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
In currency trading, the greenback is making constructive gains against the European pairs and maintaining a softer tone against the yen.

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

USA ZEUS 16:17 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

Smooth price transitions are so obvious.

USA ZEUS 15:54 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

Expect the unexpected a la Boise State- Bring the hammer!
Alabama got smoked by Utah. Texas will pay dearly.

USA ZEUS 15:45 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

Montreal Taro 15:31 GMT January 5, 2010

USD shorts will be pummeled on their blindside with a sledgehammer.

Happy Day!

GVI Forex Blog 15:43 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has consolidated in an inverted flag-like formation since late December. This occurs after price dropped substantially starting in

Chart of the Day - 1/05/2010 – EUR/USD

lkwd jj 15:35 GMT January 5, 2010
usdjpy
Reply   

Entry: 9154 Target: 9080 Stop: 9205

broken trendline on 1hr ,4hr .retest level before we fall again.

Montreal Taro 15:31 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

Wallop ??? what is it ?

GVI Forex john 15:25 GMT January 5, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



Alarming number on concern new home buyer subsidy was about to end. It was subsequently renewed. Why doesn't Congress phase it out rather than just end it?

USA ZEUS 15:25 GMT January 5, 2010
USD

Market is preparing to deliver a wallop.

lkwd jj 15:22 GMT January 5, 2010
trade idea
Reply   

Entry: 16050 Target: 15875 Stop: 16105

as per my earlier posts, i feel this level is a good shorting point. gl gt

sofia kaprikorn 15:19 GMT January 5, 2010
jump back in

sofia kaprikorn 14:22 GMT January 5, 2010
jump back in: Reply

long USD/CAD 1.0384

short EUR/USD 1.4414
_____________________
eur/usd closed at 1.4423 for -9
usd/cad closed at 1.0364 for -21

messy trading in this tight range day.

GVI Forex Blog 15:00 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   

U.S. Dollar Edges Lower as Investors Seek Risky Assets

Amsterdam Purk 14:53 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD

AC/DC ?

USA ZEUS 14:41 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD

Thunderstruck

sofia kaprikorn 14:22 GMT January 5, 2010
jump back in
Reply   
Buy USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

I'm reinstating my previous positions - seems to me the setup now is again on the Buy USD side after I got shaken by the midday reversals..

long USD/CAD 1.0384

short EUR/USD 1.4414 /giving tighter 30-pip stops./

USA ZEUS 14:14 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD

EUR/USD can be sold on rallies for low risk opportunities.

USA ZEUS 14:07 GMT January 5, 2010
USD
Reply   
Octaves are aligning in various pairs throughout for the imminent USD mantra.

Sweet melody!

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT January 5, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Countdown to U.S. data @ 15:00 GMT

Pending Homes Sales


The Pending Homes sales index is produced by monthly by the NAR. Pending Home Sales become Existing-Home Sales one-to-two months later.

The index derived from Pending Home Sales is used to predict Existing Home Sales, which is the most important U.S. housing statistic.


Advance Durable Goods/Factory Orders

Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.

The report provides information on the strength of demand, from both domestic and foreign sources, for U.S. manufactured durable goods.


Syd 14:05 GMT January 5, 2010
$A strikes two-year high against the euro
Reply   
Mr Gibbs said the euro was falling against the Australian dollar and other currencies, pulled down by potential problems within the eurozone. ''There are risks around the euro which the market probably has not been paying attention to until recently,'' he added.http://www.smh.com.au/business/
a-strikes-twoyear-high-against-the-
euro-20100105-ls79.html

lkwd jj 13:56 GMT January 5, 2010
cable
Reply   
double top on hourlies 16240-35 with mid point at 16050.looking for 185 point drop off there toward 15865 (s3 for today). last 2 bars cant get above 16056. throw in boe meeting and cadbury deal fallout and shes ripe for a move. dr quindex all over it as well.

lkwd jj 13:48 GMT January 5, 2010
cadburry deal
Reply   
heard on bloomberg that this take over fell through. muted reaction in cable....so far. might give it extra push if it falls further. anybody see or hear that ?

USA ZEUS 13:45 GMT January 5, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   
1.44 is a stubborn bugger. Looks like it is about to get tackled.
Watch out below!

Lahore FM 13:24 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

A Very Happy New Year JB.

stg/yen sounds like a good idea.you are always resourceful with trading ideas off cross plays.good trades JB!

U.K J.B 13:18 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

Happy New Year Lahore fm

I was just looking at euro/stg feeling we were looking a little toppish with decent res coming in at 9027 so i bought stg/yen instead at 147.15 also decent t/l supp

Lahore FM 13:06 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

Eurgbp short position 0.8955 stopped at 0.9010 for minus 55 pips.

PAR 12:46 GMT January 5, 2010
Greece
Reply   
Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Greece may borrow privately through banks by the end of January, its second such transaction in as many months, following cuts to the nation’s credit ratings, according to the country’s debt manager.

The decision on whether to use a private placement will depend on reaction to the country’s stability and growth program, Spyros Papanicolaou, the managing director of Greece’s Public Debt Management Agency, said today. The country had earlier considered offering bonds through a syndicate of banks.

“We are yet to decide whether to go ahead with a syndication,” Papanicolaou said today in a telephone interview from Athens. “We might do a private placement instead. It will depend on how the stability and growth program is received by the European Commission and the markets.”

GVI Forex Blog 12:21 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 05-Jan-2010 - 1220 GMT

GVI Forex john 11:58 GMT January 5, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Countdown to Canadian data @ 13:30 GMT

Producer Price Index (PPI)


The PPI is a price index designed to measure the level of wholesale prices in a given economy. Its another input into the policy making decisions of central banks.


sofia kaprikorn 11:58 GMT January 5, 2010
20/200 MVA range trade

sofia kaprikorn 07:54 GMT January 5, 2010
20/200 MVA range trade: Reply
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.4454 Target: 1.4224 Stop: 1.4488
__________
closed at 1.4425 for +29

the reversal in USD/CAD shakes off my conviction on USD buying

my account size doesn't permit taking LT trades so the hourlies structure prevail in my decision-making.

London SFH 11:57 GMT January 5, 2010
Icelandic President:

because the UK already paid out the victims of the Icelandic fiaso based on a law that was passed in Iceland....

sofia kaprikorn 11:55 GMT January 5, 2010
bottom-picking

sofia kaprikorn 07:48 GMT January 5, 2010
bottom-picking: Reply
Buy USD/CAD
Entry: 1.0376 Target: 1.0555 Stop: 1.0333
____________________
closed at 1.0355 for -21

hourlies are looking bad and the 4-H chart had such a reversal candle that I wonder why I had to take a loss when I had to raise the stop AT B/E once the trade had already made 30-40 pips as it reached the daily high at 1.0410..

PAR 11:44 GMT January 5, 2010
Icelandic President:

Us and UK also did not pay the victims of Lehman , so why should Iceland do so ?

Syd 11:33 GMT January 5, 2010
Icelandic President:
Reply   
Will not sign Icesave bill on repayment to Britain, The Netherlands
EUR/GBP has edged through the .9000 level . Talk that US investment house has recommended long possie is underpinning the cross -Talk Swiss name has been strong buyer of the cross in the latest move higher.

dc CB 11:32 GMT January 5, 2010
Ben just wants to remind Mr and Mrs Boomer that their savings, what's left of it, will never ever ever grow to meet their retirement dreams if they insist on keeping it in safe cash equivalents.

While with the other side of his mouth he tells them that they must save more and spend less and reduce risk.

London SFH 11:29 GMT January 5, 2010
Bonds


Hi Kaprikorn,Happy New Year


2/30 's +3.60 2/10's +2.76 Prices taken from cash bonds off bloomberg

PAR 11:22 GMT January 5, 2010
As Fed officials Bernanke & Co keep repeating everyday the "keep interest rates low forever" mantra it is normal that confidence in the Us real economy and the Us dollar is declining rapidly. As long as Bernanke is Fed president the Us recession will continue .

Remember "The Secret " . You get what you want or about what you are constantly thinking. As Bernanke has been studying economic recessions whole his life it is not more than normal that the Us economy is in such a big recession.
Maybe , Maybe not . Lol.

sofia kaprikorn 11:15 GMT January 5, 2010
Bonds
Reply   
London SFH 09:45 GMT
....
hi SFH - may I ask where are the bond spreads monitored/traded - to my present knowledge one can construct them by simply buying the short end and selling the long end /for steepeners/?

GVI Forex Blog 11:05 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
Currencies: The European session began with dealers trying to rationalize factors that might limit the dollar's recent downside momentum exhibited over the last 24 hours

European market Update: German Labor Minister paints a different, bleaker picture from the recent trend in the German employment situation

GVI Forex Blog 10:57 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
11:00 GMT - TRADING SCENARIO- So far the markets are not trading exactly the way we were expecting in the earliest stages of the new year. A key focus for the first two days has been on China as their economy has been growing fast and there are concerns about bubbles...

Daily GVI Forex Forex View: Mixed Messages: China and JPY

Hong Kong Qindex 10:56 GMT January 5, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is below the daily cycle pivot center at 1.6001. The downside targeting point is 1.5850.


... 1.5700 - 1.5750* - 1.5800 - 1.5825 // 1.5850* - 1.5875 - 1.5900 - 1.5925 - 1.5951* - 1.5976 - [1.6001] - 1.6026 - 1.6051* - 1.6076 - 1.6101 - 1.6126 - 1.6151* // 1.6176 - 1.6201 - 1.6251* - 1.6302 ...


============================================


01/04/2010 16:32:36 Qindex Hong Kong 7

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is rejected from the weekly cycle pivot center at 1.6237 - 1.6289 - 1.6442. It is now heading towards the weekly cycle initial downside targeting points at 1.5939 - 1.6004 - 1.6113.



01/04/2010 10:16:28 Qindex Hong Kong 3

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : The market is now trapped between two sets of super magnets. One set is the monthly cycle pivot centers at 1.5816 - 1.5952 - 1.5980 and the other set is the weekly cycle pivot centers at 1.6237 - 1.6289 - 1.6442. Both set of magnets are exerting their pulling effects on the market movement.



01/04/2010 10:16:28 Qindex Hong Kong 9

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : The market is now trapped between two sets of super magnets. One set is the monthly cycle pivot centers at 1.5816 - 1.5952 - 1.5980 and the other set is the weekly cycle pivot centers at 1.6237 - 1.6289 - 1.6442. Both set of magnets are exerting their pulling effects on the market movement.


01/04/2010 10:00:29 Qindex Hong Kong 10

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : Current Comments


The market is still under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot centers at 1.6237 - 1,6289 - 1.6442. It is basically a big range market between 1.6031 - 1.6216 for the time being. The bias is on the upside when the market is trading above the barriers at 1.6090 - 1.6101. Buy on dips would be the preferred trading strategy. The current expected trading range from the monthly cycle charts is 1.6067 - 1.6560.


GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gbp.html


01/04/2010 07:04:02 Qindex Hong Kong 11

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : Critical Support 1.5816


As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is pulling towards the monthly cycle pivot centers at 1.5816 - 1.5952 - 1.5980. The graphic indication suggests that a barrier is located at 1.6067. the monthly cycle congested area indicates that the market has a tendency to trade within 1.5816 - 1.6676.


GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gbp.html


01/04/2010 04:26:39 Qindex Hong Kong 12

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : Basically the market is now consolidating within the daily cycle matrix system at 1.6057 - 1.6108 - 1.6151.


01/04/2010 04:01:07 Qindex Hong Kong 13

Sell GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : Weekly Cycle Analysis


The bias is on the downside when the market is trading below the weekly cycle pivot centers at 1.6237 - 1.6289 - 1.6442. The initial weekly cycle downside targeting points are 1.5935 - 1.6004 - 1.6113.


01/04/2010 03:49:16 Qindex Hong Kong 14

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : The range should be 1.6031 - 1.6067.


01/04/2010 03:39:25 Qindex Hong Kong 15

Sell GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : The bias is on the downside when the market is below the barriers at 1.6090 - 1.6101.


01/04/2010 03:36:00 Qindex Hong Kong 16

GBP/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/USD : The supporting points at 1.6031 and 1.6061 is going to be challenged.

GVI Forex john 10:51 GMT January 5, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

5 January 2010

Mixed Messages; Focus on China and JPY

11:00 GMT - TRADING SCENARIO- So far the markets are not trading exactly the way we were expecting in the earliest stages of the new year. A key focus for the first two days has been on China as their economy has been growing fast and there are concerns about bubbles...

MORE...

HK [email protected] 10:41 GMT January 5, 2010
Worth watching
Reply   
Looks like Aussie begins to chart for 95.50.

Worth watching!!!

Hong Kong Qindex 10:28 GMT January 5, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/CHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/CHF : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below the weekly cycle pivot centers at 1.6570 - 1.6587 - 1.6682. The initial downside targeting points from the weekly cycle are 1.6158 - 1.6291 - 1.6358.


=============================================


01/02/2010 05:17:15 Qindex Hong Kong 18

Sell GBP/CHF
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/CHF : Resistance at 1.6741


As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is stable when it is trading above the monthly cycle pivot centers at 1.5112 - 1.5416 - 1.5518. The market momentum is strong when it is above the weekly cycle pivot centers at 1.6570 - 1.6587 - 1.6682. Basically the market is going to consolidate within the monthly cycle upper mid-point references at 1.6486 - 1.6719 - 1.6975. A resistant point is positioning at 1.6741. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.


GBP/CHF : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gbp-chf.html

London SFH 10:25 GMT January 5, 2010
Cable
Reply   
Buy cable
Entry: 1.6025 Target: 1.6200 Stop: 1.5980


Bought cable here in front of 1.6000, think it will hold and looking for a rebound.

GVI Forex Blog 10:09 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
The dollar slipped across the board on Tuesday as investors poured fresh funds into riskier assets at the start of the year, and as the market awaited U.S. employment figures due later in the week.

FOREX NEWS-Dollar slips broadly, some risk assets in demand

GVI Forex Blog 09:52 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
Traders of the USD await the publication of the FOMC Meeting Minutes tomorrow (Jan 6).

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 05/01/2010

Medan Ardent 09:51 GMT January 5, 2010
eur/gbp
Reply   
Sell
Entry: .8993 Target: .8715 Stop: .9020

short eur /gbp

Lahore FM 09:33 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

you are welcome neo!
happy trades!

chennai neo 09:29 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

woow.. thanks bro.. am in - 5 pips... haven kept sl...yet.. will take ur sl as mine..9010..thanks a ton bro.. expecting it will reach atleast 8900..thanks lahore

Lahore FM 09:13 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

neo,am looking for a drop below 0.8960.on the upside have stops at 0.9010.below 0.8960 can continue towards first target 0.8840.

sofia kaprikorn 08:59 GMT January 5, 2010
the year ahead
Reply   
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1b85141e-f962-11de-80dc-00144feab49a.html

chennai neo 08:51 GMT January 5, 2010
Trade Ideas

Hey bro.. happy new year lahore n to all member in the forum..Are u still holding the short ?? eur/gbp ...i had short @ 8972..n its rising n rising.. lemme knw ur update on eur gbp bro.. am nt able to find it..cheers..thanks in advance..

Viet Nam Forex Begin 08:43 GMT January 5, 2010
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Reply   
Sell GBP/USD
Entry: 1.6045 Target: 1.6015 Stop: 1.6075

Tuesday, 05 January 2010 08:42 GMT

Opening market session today, GU-EU-AU are up.

But at 07:02, there is a the opposite indicator.

Now, they are moving down strongly.

Juffair KaL 08:18 GMT January 5, 2010
well well well

i do not like that
1.4230 area
what i did here is increased the sma periods to 100
using hourly
this is what i get

Average 1.4809 1.4432
1/5/2010 3:00 1.4597 1.4225
1/8/2010 13:18 1.4707 1.4332
1/11/2010 23:37 1.4864 1.4485
1/15/2010 9:56 1.5069 1.4685

the day before post i used 20 periods
bigger wave will eat up the smaller ones
i think that 1.42 ish area is very dangerous
might turn

Medan Ardent 08:15 GMT January 5, 2010
gbp double tops
Reply   
Sell gbp
Entry: Target: Stop:

place sell stop 1.6055

Medan Ardent 08:05 GMT January 5, 2010
well well well

south comfirm

Juffair KaL 08:03 GMT January 5, 2010
well well well
Reply   
is this eurusd heading south or what?

sofia kaprikorn 07:54 GMT January 5, 2010
20/200 MVA range trade
Reply   
Sell EUR/USD
Entry: 1.4454 Target: 1.4224 Stop: 1.4488

locked inside the 20 - 200Day MAs I look for a bounce off the 20 and test of the 200 down at 1.4225.

sofia kaprikorn 07:48 GMT January 5, 2010
bottom-picking
Reply   
Buy USD/CAD
Entry: 1.0376 Target: 1.0555 Stop: 1.0333

betting on the LT trendline support off the Weekly holds and the timing now is ripe for a bounce off the bottom.

Medan Ardent 07:07 GMT January 5, 2010
SHORT EUR
Reply   
Sell EUR
Entry: 1.4483 Target: 1.4320 Stop: 1.4533

short eur at the top of flag formation

jkt-aye 06:43 GMT January 5, 2010
confused
Reply   
Happy New "confuse" Year !!!

usdcad to 1.0460 ?

dc CB 06:10 GMT January 5, 2010
2010
Reply   


http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/01/is-us-goverment-preparing-lifeboats-for.html

UK 06:07 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

Survey is at http://surveys.polldaddy.com/s/6E600DB4CB4AB9A7 and will take no more than 3-5 minutes to complete...

THREAD: Trader Survey UPDATED

lkwd jj 05:15 GMT January 5, 2010
usdjpy
Reply   
lkwd jj 20:35 GMT January 4, 2010
usdjpy: Reply
both 1hr and 4 hr charts show broken uptrendline. sold here @54 with 93 stop. 91.96 target (50ma). usd starting year on back foot so far.maybe better levels to buy ,for gains later, but short term looking heavy.
----------------------------------------
done!!

GVI Forex Blog 04:21 GMT January 5, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 05-Jan-2010 - 0410 GMT

Syd 04:14 GMT January 5, 2010
Asia poised for supercharged growth amid global rebound from financial crisis
Reply   
LAST year's rebound in Asian markets will be a tough act to follow, but that doesn't mean stocks can't continue to rise.

Asia, excluding Japan, led the world out of the global financial abyss in 2009, producing some of the biggest market gains of the year. The widely used MSCI AC Asia Ex-Japan Index rose 68.3 per cent as confidence built that Asia's fastest-growing economies - especially China, India and Indonesia - were on more advanced recovery paths than their Western counterparts.LINK

Hong Kong Qindex 03:28 GMT January 5, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the weekly cycle pivot centers at 150.62 - 150.70 - 154.92. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market below the monthly cycle pivot center at 148.23. The initial downside targeting points for the weekly cycle are 146.70 - 146.72 - 148.23.


======================================


01/01/2010 08:15:44 Qindex Hong Kong 19

Sell GBP/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/JPY : Critical Point 151.04


The market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot centers at 150.62 - 150.70 - 154.92. As shown in the monthly cycle projected series 151.04 is a critical point. A projected resistant range is expected at 152.40 - 153.88. Sell on ralles is the preferred trading strategy.


GBP/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gbp-yen.html

Syd 03:27 GMT January 5, 2010
Specs increase long USD positions
Reply   
Speculators increased long USD positions for a second straight week ending Dec 29 according to CFTC data. Dollar net long positions were valued at $4.76 bln, a dramatic increase from the net long of $700 mln the week prior, making it the biggest net long USD position since April.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:19 GMT January 5, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/CAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/CAD : As shown in the directional indicator the market is under pressure when it is below 1.6798. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the marke is trading below the monthly cycle pivot center at 1.6580.


=====================================


01/01/2010 16:46:57 Qindex Hong Kong 17

Sell GBP/CAD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/CAD : Critical Point 1.7398


As shown in the monthly cycle directional indicator, the market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above the weekly cycle pivot center at 1.7262. A critical resistant point is located at 1.7398. The market is under pressure when it is rejected from the resistant range at 1.7262 - 1.7398. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.



GBP/CAD : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gbp-cad.html

Hong Kong Qindex 03:03 GMT January 5, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/AUD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/AUD : The market is now working on the barrier at 1.7466 // 1.7644.


====================================


01/03/2010 10:49:06 Qindex Hong Kong 13

Sell GBP/AUD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/AUD : Resistrance at 1.8181


The current expected trading range from the monthly cycle charts is 1.7059 - 1.8067. A resistant point is located at 1.8181. The monthly cycle congested area indicates that the market has a tendency to trade within 1.6555 - 1.8283. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.


GBP/AUD : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gbp-aud.html

Syd 02:53 GMT January 5, 2010
DJ NZD/USD Pauses, Likely To Push Higher - ANZ
Reply   
NZD/USD pausing after touching 6-week high at 0.7362, but likely to kick higher after consolidating, says ANZ Bank NZ chief dealer Murray Hindley. "It's hard to see the Kiwi backing off too far. We should base out here and continue to push higher." Says breach of resistance at 0.7230 important chart point; "Commodities ended the year strongly and we are seeing a continuation of that. Maybe people are more comfortable with risk at the beginning of this year as well." Adds if 0.7360 breaks, then 0.7510 next target and 2009 high of 0.7630 in sight. Pair last at 0.7332.

hk nt 01:19 GMT January 5, 2010
AUS/USD

looks like euro 1.46, aud .93 are easy this week

hk 01:17 GMT January 5, 2010
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader

what is range forecast about ?

Hong Kong Qindex 01:14 GMT January 5, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Buy EUR/GBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/GBP : Critical Support 0.8827


As shown in the monthly cycle charts the critical level is positioning at 0.8827 - 0.8855. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above the critical at 0.8855. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the daily cycle matrix system at 0.8928 - 0.8938 - 0.8999. The odds are against any position when the market is above 0.9025 on the daily basis.Buy on dips is the preferred trading strategy.


EUR/GBP : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/eur-gbp.html

Syd 01:14 GMT January 5, 2010
US public pensions face $2,000bn shortfall
Reply   
The US public pension system faces a higher-than-expected shortfall of more than $2,000bn that will increase pressure on many states’ strained finances and crimp economic growth, according to the chairman of New Jersey’s pension fund
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bd1c2552-f966-11de-8085-00144feab49a.html

Hong Kong 00:48 GMT January 5, 2010
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:1.6108

Last Update At 04 Jan 2010 23:38 GMT

Cable's sellloff fm 1.6242 to 1.6082 due to act-
ive cross-selling in sterling confirms the upmove
fm last week's low at 1.5832 has ended made a top
there n choppy consolidation is envisaged with mild
downside bias but reckon 1.6060 wud hold fm here.

Stand aside initially n look to buy on further
decline but reckon 1.6195 wud cap upside in Asia.


Range Forecast
1.6085 / 1.6120

Resistance/Support
R: 1.6140/1.6195/1.6242
S: 1.6060/1.5989/1.5925

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
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