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Forex Forum Archive for 01/07/2010

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Blog 23:58 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   

Dollar Holds Gain as Traders Await Friday’s U.S. Employment Report

Gold Coast ct 23:47 GMT January 7, 2010
usdjpy



JJ
Daily chart - yen due to retrace a bit at least to daily pivot or S1. ( my sys closing time is 22GMT my R1 is 93.79)
BV
Nothing high tech about pivots supp/resist, nor Bollinger bands or linear regression or quadratics.
Google explains them all.

Wall Street 23:28 GMT January 7, 2010
EURUSD
Reply   
Was watching 1.4400 pivot (resistance) at this hour a day ago. Now my focus is on 1.4300 support. I was skeptical that above 1.4400 would be established, now I am thinking that 1.4300 might hold. I wonder if CB's are picking up EUR reserves here?

nys ws 22:51 GMT January 7, 2010
Fractal Geometry

Zeus. I will ask again. Nice chart (looks like a painting) but are you calling for a bottom or start of a new wave down?

lkwd jj 22:42 GMT January 7, 2010
usdjpy
Reply   
r1 for friday is 93.74. risk is nfp number for dec either fails , or has a november revision. good news has been priced in with yen down 2 figures vs usd. looking to fade this recent move in usdjpy.

lkwd jj 22:32 GMT January 7, 2010
Fractal Geometry

can you run a chart on usdjpy for me plz? got the wet suit on and my wave runner is all gassed up.

USA ZEUS 22:28 GMT January 7, 2010
Fractal Geometry



Have the whole meat and potatoes!

LA BV 22:26 GMT January 7, 2010
Fractal Geometry

CT can you explain what this shows in some more detail, maybe with an example. I got a B in geometry.

USA ZEUS 22:26 GMT January 7, 2010
Fractal Geometry

San Diego bobl 19:43 GMT January 7, 2010

Thank you for the kind words bobbl. Happy new year to you sir and wish you the best! GLGT! :-)

lkwd jj 22:24 GMT January 7, 2010
usdjpy
Reply   
lkwd jj 15:30 GMT December 4, 2009
hindsight/conspiracy: Reply
happened to be in front of screen as i had long usdjpy and long gbpusd on. was looking for exit strategy before retiring , as i cant always be at desk when these big reports are due out. there was absolutely no news out to trigger such a steep drop in gold at that time of day/night in the world. even if that timezone is meaningless, stops can and will get hit if they are placed.

lkwd jj 15:09 GMT December 4, 2009
hindsight/conspiracy: Reply
gold last night was down about $15 at 1am ny time. that was near asia close and europe open. i asked myself what could possibly trigger such a move? does someone know something? looked really weird.
-------------------------------------------
are we in repeat mode?

Tallinn viies 22:24 GMT January 7, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
first trade of the year :)

buying euros here at 1,4306. stop at 1,4254. target 1,4445.

Gold Coast ct 22:20 GMT January 7, 2010
Fractal Geometry



The pivot master for the meat and the mince.

lkwd jj 22:19 GMT January 7, 2010
usdjpy

last nfp report in dec , had gold moving down sharply and usdjpy up but that was 5hrs later, not at this time of day.

lkwd jj 22:17 GMT January 7, 2010
usdjpy
Reply   
i watch this mkt everyday at this time and it never moves 35 + pips at this time. smells like stop hunt....

GVI Forex Blog 22:12 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   
The Canadian dollar fell againstthe U.S. currency on Thursday as commodity prices weakened in response to possible indications from China that it plans to cool its economy to keep a lid on inflation

Forex Market News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ falls with commodities on China concerns

Gold Coast ct 22:11 GMT January 7, 2010
Fractal Geometry



This is the mince version....

Gold Coast ct 22:05 GMT January 7, 2010
Fractal Geometry



To extract the meat, I add a regression channel to quadratics
The black steps are the daily pivots.

GVI Forex Blog 21:53 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   
The U.S. dollar rose broadly on Thursday a day before a key U.S. government jobs report expected to show two years of job losses ended last month.

FOREX NEWS-Dollar rises broadly ahead of jobs data, yen falls

Syd 21:41 GMT January 7, 2010
Pound to Fall 12% ‘Off the Cliff,’ BNP Paribas Says
Reply   
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The pound will fall 12 percent against the dollar this year as deteriorating public finances, concern the nation’s credit rating may be cut and political discord deter foreign investors, BNP Paribas SA said. LINK

Farris Sees Dollar Falling Unless Jobs Data Is

Nicole Elliott Mizuho Corporate Bank Technical Analysis AUD

Attrill Says Euro May Fall Below $1.40 Later This Year

philadelphia caba 21:34 GMT January 7, 2010
eur/chf
Reply   
post SNB's intervention gap is being closed... was their effort worth it (for them)...?

Syd 21:25 GMT January 7, 2010
Geithner’s Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure
Reply   
Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, then led by Timothy Geithner, told American International Group Inc. to withhold details from the public about the bailed-out insurer’s payments to banks during the depths of the financial crisis, e-mails between the company and its regulator show. LINK

New York Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Details

GVI Forex Blog 21:10 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   
21:00 GMT- Jan 7 (global-view.com) Markets have been setting up all week for December U.S. Employment data due Friday morning in NYC. Data released over the week have not had much impact on a market consensus..

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Employment Data at Hand

GVI Forex john 21:07 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Employment Data at Hand

21:00 GMT- Jan 7 (global-view.com) Markets have been setting up all week for December U.S. Employment data due Friday morning in NYC. Data released over the week have not had much impact on a market consensus..

MORE...

San Diego bobl 19:43 GMT January 7, 2010
Fractal Geometry
Reply   
Zeus,

Liked your correlation of market action in geometric terms, in addition to your wave theory. A moving average study of pivots, support, resistance levels seems to envelope price action as you have displayed in your charts. Today hasn't been too sexy, with an overiding theme of reversion to the mean. Not a big surprise pre-NFP. Good stuff.

gl/gt

nyc ws 19:36 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading

Zeus. how about a straight answer. Is this the start of a new wave down or up. I don't know and let price decide is also an answer.

USA ZEUS 19:29 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading



The prior was the tide view and this is the wave view.

nyc ws 19:21 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading

Zeus. Can you explain. It looks like eurusd is at decision time.

USA ZEUS 19:18 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading



nyc ws 19:07 GMT January 7, 2010

Crystal clear current view of the calm "norm before the storm" with dynamic Zeus nonlinear quadratic polynomial sup/res bands.

See you tomorrow. GLGT!

nyc ws 19:07 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading

Zeus. If you don't have sun tan lotion in your eyes on the beach, what is your current view if any?

USA ZEUS 18:53 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading

London SFH 18:42 GMT January 7, 2010

Good point SFH. Tsunami waves are detectable and have advanced warning in most beach locations. A great example is the NFP tomorrow. A tsunami wave has been detected and the estimated time of arrival is also known.

Cheers

GVI Forex Blog 18:49 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   

Stocks Trading Higher in Limited Action

PAR 18:45 GMT January 7, 2010
Geithner
Reply   
Transparency. Yes We Can .

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York pressed American International Group Inc. to withhold details of controversial deals that funneled billions in bailout money to Goldman Sachs and other banks.

E-mails provided by Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., show lawyers representing the New York Fed asked AIG to remove the information from a draft financial disclosure. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was president of the New York Fed at the time.

The deals were part of a massive rescue effort at the peak of the financial crisis.

Lawmakers and others have accused Geithner's Fed of overpaying banks, including Goldman and Deutsche Bank, to cancel deals with AIG.

Issa said the information raised new doubts about Geithner's qualifications.

"This begs the question, knowing what we know now: Would he have even been confirmed?" Issa said in a statement.

The New York Fed says forcing the banks to take losses or disclosing more information could have worsened the crisis. New York Fed spokesman Jack Gutt said such exchanges between lawyers are routine and that it was AIG's responsibility to decide what had to be disclosed.

London SFH 18:42 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading

watch out for the occassional Tsunami dude, thats where the real money can be made to use your anology


Cheers

GVI Forex Blog 18:41 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   

Dollar’s Rise May Be Indication of Improved U.S. Payrolls

USA ZEUS 18:27 GMT January 7, 2010
EUR/USD Zeus Bands

update coming

U.K J.B 18:10 GMT January 7, 2010
RE

New Hampshire SDE

I am pleased to hear you have benefited from my posts. I am afraid i do not offer a consultancy service or sell any services for that matter. Jay/John monitor such enquries @ GVI Forex So any future enquires of this nature should be directed through them. ATB.

Juffair KaL 17:49 GMT January 7, 2010
^hgx Index
Reply   
showing healthy promise for recovery over the next 3 months
buying property in the usa is great idea these days
to keep for longer term
for at least 3 times the value

GVI Forex Jay 17:48 GMT January 7, 2010
Forex Quotes and Charts

JEM contact me and be specific EMAIL

lkwd jj 17:47 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading

others stay wet behind the ears!!!

Boca Raton JEM 17:45 GMT January 7, 2010
Forex Quotes and Charts
Reply   
Forex seems to have stopped access to charts and currency quotes with no explanation or instructions on how to restore access. I can find no email address to explain why or instruct how to access them.

Can anyone help or direct me to a person who might respond?

Lahore FM 17:45 GMT January 7, 2010
Trade Ideas

1.4250 and 1.4290 ws,the lower level break on daily close makes it much clearer that upside potential might have diluted.

nyc ws 17:40 GMT January 7, 2010
Trade Ideas

Lahore, what level on the downside would need to be broken to negate that scenario?

Lahore FM 17:16 GMT January 7, 2010
Trade Ideas

1.4330 now,eurusd looking for a move past 1.4385 for a resumption setup for 1.4580 target ..later 1.4700.

USA ZEUS 17:16 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading

Some miss the tide for the ripples.
Some miss the ripples for the tide.
I target the Tide, waves and ripples.

Ahoy!

USA ZEUS 16:44 GMT January 7, 2010
Beach trading
Reply   
Trading and fractal geometry is no different than other natural phenomena. You can learn this at the beach-
While the tide is rising, waves and ripples will ebb and flow to and fro. At the point where the tide is at its extreme high, the wave is pushed up the shore to its extreme, which in turn pushes the ripple to the most extreme point reached along the beautiful beach. It is at that point where the ripple will reverse into the very wave that pushed it to the maximum high tide mark. The wave then reverses into the tide. The cycle resets.

Cheers!

GVI Forex Blog 16:42 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   
In currencies, the greenback consolidated earlier gains during the New York morning. Vague rumors circulated

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Juffair KaL 16:11 GMT January 7, 2010
GBPUSD selling orders

not longing eurusd
but this is what i got
Today
1.4459 1.4310
1.4441 1.4329
1.4422 1.4348

Next day
1.4464 1.4315
1.4445 1.4334
1.4427 1.4352

GVI Forex Blog 16:09 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   
But what may be important is that as liquidity drains even ever so slightly, it could have a powerful and exponential impact on financial assets from three sources:

Liquidity stuff at the margins again…

Juffair KaL 16:05 GMT January 7, 2010
GBPUSD selling orders
Reply   
Placing shorts

Today
1.6157 1.5861
1.6120 1.5898
1.6083 1.5935

Next day
1.6142 1.5846
1.6105 1.5883
1.6068 1.5920

GVI Forex Blog 15:40 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   
Jan 7 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are de from the Far East. In Europe, major highlights include: German trade and revised 3Q09 EZ GDP. In North America,

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for January 8, 2010

Juffair KaL 15:39 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

euraud
still selling
Today
1.5673 1.5511
1.5653 1.5531
1.5632 1.5551

Next day
1.5599 1.5437
1.5579 1.5457
1.5558 1.5477

GVI Forex john 15:36 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Jan 7 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are de from the Far East. In Europe, major highlights include: German trade and revised 3Q09 EZ GDP. In North America, Canadian and U.S. monthly employment data art top-tier releases. U.S. wholesale Inventories are an important piece of the puzzle as well.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

6:45

CH

Dec Unemploy

4.10%

4.10%

7:00

DE

Nov Trade EUR

12.4

12.9

10:00

EZ

3Qr GDP qq

0.40%

-0.20%

10:00

EZ

3Qr GDP yy

-4.10%

-4.80%

10:00

EZ

Nov Unemploy

9.90%

9.80%

11:00

DE

Nov Ind Output

1.00%

-1.80%

12:00

CA

Nov Employment

20.0K

79.0K

12:00

CA

Nov Rate

8.50%

8.50%

13:30

US

Dec Employment

-10K

-11K

13:30

US

Dec Rate

10.10%

10.20%

15:00

US

Oct Whsl Inv

-0.30%

0.30%

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

0:01

JA

Holiday

n/a

n/a

Juffair KaL 15:24 GMT January 7, 2010
usdcad short here

maybe
it's making a base
around these 1.03 to 1.02
for longer term rallie into 1.08

Juffair KaL 15:21 GMT January 7, 2010
usdcad short here

i did both Kevin
now short

HK Kevin 15:19 GMT January 7, 2010
usdcad short here

Juffair KaL 15:00 GMT January 7, 2010
usdcad short here: Reply
usdcad
still south

next days expected high and low
1.0340 1.0237
1.0327 1.0250
1.0314 1.0262

Juffair KaL 08:08 GMT January 7, 2010
usdcad: Reply
very intersting
longing at 1.0290
seems ok...but only for another tight range for next day
1.036 tgt seems ok

Longer term 1.08 seems ok too
i think that 1.028 is the lowest

Kal, just wonder why your two above posts are of opposite views?

GVI Forex Jay 15:14 GMT January 7, 2010
RE

SDE, check your email.

Juffair KaL 15:13 GMT January 7, 2010
nzdusd longs

audusd seems ok long too
Today
0.9285 0.9157
0.9269 0.9173
0.9253 0.9189

Next day
0.9330 0.9202
0.9314 0.9218
0.9298 0.9234

Juffair KaL 15:10 GMT January 7, 2010
nzdusd longs
Reply   
seems ok
Today
0.7468 0.7315
0.7449 0.7334
0.7429 0.7353

Next day
0.7495 0.7342
0.7476 0.7361
0.7457 0.7381

Juffair KaL 15:09 GMT January 7, 2010
Trade Ideas

waiting on eurgbp to dip some more

Today
0.9067 0.8895
0.9045 0.8917
0.9024 0.8938

Next day
0.9077 0.8906
0.9056 0.8927
0.9035 0.8949

Juffair KaL 15:04 GMT January 7, 2010
Trade Ideas

got these for today
85.8627 84.3501
85.6736 84.5392
85.4845 84.7282

next days high and low


86.2383 84.7258
86.0493 84.9148
85.8602 85.1039

New Hampshire SDE 15:01 GMT January 7, 2010
RE

U.K./J.B. - I read your posts with great interest. I run our family business, Foreign Exchange is very new to us. We have utmost respect and follow your recommendation's to date nearly a 100 % right. Do you offer a consultancy service or are you very independant . I hope this is appropriate to ask here .

Juffair KaL 15:00 GMT January 7, 2010
usdcad short here
Reply   
usdcad
still south

next days expected high and low
1.0340 1.0237
1.0327 1.0250
1.0314 1.0262

Miami JN 14:32 GMT January 7, 2010
USD Index

JB Good one on eurusd buy suggestion

Hong Kong JC 14:29 GMT January 7, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy
Entry: Target: Stop:

AUD/JPY: BUY at 84.35 stop 83.10 Target: 85.55 then 87.00
The cross continues to move higher and the October high at 85.30 was breached once. Take a break here and re-open on dip as suggested above or use 85.60 as the topside pivot.
Resistances: 85.60; 87.25; 88.90
Supports: 84.35; 83.15; 82.60

EUR/GBP: BUY at .8925 Stop .8830 Target: .9055 then .9085
There is a strong base on the daily charts at 0.8835/50, which held a gain earlier this week and the price has subsequently rebounded, with 0.9055 as the first significant resistance. The price action leaves the daily studies net positive, while the hourlies are neutral. Bias is UP.
Resistances: 0.9015; 0.9055; 0.9070; 0.9095
Supports: 0.8925; 0.8850; 0.8835; 0.8745

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.0370 Stop 1.0425 Target 1.0210
The price continues to grind lower, testing 1.0297 this morning in Asia, but selling breaks has been the poor option on this move so far. The price action leaves the daily studies heading down, with plenty of room to run. Bias is lower and strategy is to sell a topside failure starting around 1.0370.
Resistances: 1.0370; 1.0420; 1.0515
Supports: 1.0265; 1.0210; 1.0175

GVI Forex Blog 14:10 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   

Demand for Commodities Falls as Dollar Strengthens

GVI Forex Blog 14:10 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   

U.S. Dollar Rises after China Tightens Interest Rates

GVI Forex Futures 14:04 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

EURO FX Futures total open interest up 1,616 to 152,682. Small change indicative of mixed market action yesterday?

U.K J.B 14:00 GMT January 7, 2010
USD Index

Thats the baby but i am bullish for the dollar this year so i do expect it to break soon ( 81 tar ) have to run atb

GVI Forex Jay 13:58 GMT January 7, 2010
USD Index



EUR/USD (not surprising given eur/usd is a major component of usdx) shows similar pattern.

dc CB 13:55 GMT January 7, 2010
USD Index



last COT - USD futures

GVI Forex john 13:52 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Jobless Claims very good in that some "give back" from the previous week might have expected. Latest initial claims were 434,000. Four weeks ago was 480,000. Watch the four week moving average as the weekly figures can be volatile. Click on the image to see longer history and to get an idea what a "normal" level of claims might be.

GVI Forex Jay 13:51 GMT January 7, 2010
USD Index



JB, check this out. SHows a minor down channel, top end tested

GVI Forex john 13:43 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



Click on chart for seven-year history

U.K J.B 13:40 GMT January 7, 2010
USD Index

Why have you not drawn in the trend line Jay ??

GVI Forex 13:37 GMT January 7, 2010
USD Index



See Daily Chart

U.K J.B 13:34 GMT January 7, 2010
RE

Your welcome i hope i have answered your questions . I have to leave now GL/GT

U.K J.B 13:33 GMT January 7, 2010
USD Index
Reply   
No one seems to talk about the above. I find it a nice indicator . Today on the dailies res coming in at 7803 supp 7733 perhaps the euro to base here GL

sofia kaprikorn 13:31 GMT January 7, 2010
RE

J.B - tnx and appreciate it!

U.K J.B 13:06 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable

I think you will be ok with that looks a decent r/r trade

U.K J.B 13:04 GMT January 7, 2010
RE
Reply   
Sofia- i may be duplicating points i have made in previous posts. I will keep it brief today but would be happy to expand on certain issues another time. It is all about percentages for me. San Diego bobl also made some good points on this and finding your comfort level. I never look at the rates on my screen ( pointless and mis leading ) why would someone put in a tight stop pointless, this clearly shows they have no confidence in the trade so the trade should not be on in the first place. It does not matter if you are short $ 1 million or dolls 1 trillion i never look at the p+l just the percentage gain/loss on the amount i am managing. I will trade around a position to improve the average but initially risking 0.5/1 % to make 2/3%. I like to scale in yes very much. I also like trades to go against me initially when i put the first part on. No such thing as throwing in the towel i dont like that expression. If our technicals and system levels are showing no decent r/r on a trade we will close and take a 0.7 % hit. We have never had 10 in a row ie 7 % draw-down. I leave call levels normally around 200 points away but of course depending on the size of the position. How many traders get stopped out of good position's on a stop hunt. Hopefully not us . I like to see the price action when we approach levels where i know stops will be. Generally i will be looking to increase the position . The market is full of machines. algo. HFT , systematic so we have to allow for these big swings now in our analysis, but i am very contrarian in my approach as you probably know. I am often asked where is the % so high for people losing money in Forex. Perhaps if they did the opposite to what the so called expert's are saying and predicting there could be your answer. GL/GT

Lahore FM 12:56 GMT January 7, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4328 Target: Stop: 1.4240

second long in play now with its separate stop.

Mtl JP 12:54 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

john 12:38 / fwiw, a good friend reports about actual treasury payouts to states for unemployment insurance claims vs reported number of people on unemployment assistance as you might guess the numbers don't add up: normally it's like an almost perfect 0.9 R2 correlation but the discrepancy suggests 3-4mil more unemployed than officially recorded. the treasury publishes weekly cashflows in and out. piecing various data together - cash IS king - coz the treasury is paying out lots more than what official unemployment numbers would suggest. in fact, for the last week in Dec the unemploymentn payout was MORE than the cash payout for federal employee salaries.
-
maybe someone else can corraborate / debunk "liars figure and their figures lie"

London SFH 12:45 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable


Well so far 1.5900 appearas to have been a good level to intiate a long regardless of the mistrusted 86.2%....

GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Countdown to U.S. data

Weekly jobless data


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.

NYC JM 12:36 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable

I am not a technician but cannot see the relevance of a retracement that goes so far (e.g. 86.2%) that it nearly retraces the entire move. I think in this world of #s you can find some # that fits a chart but I just don't see the logic of calling price action that covers 86.2% of a move a retracement. It only has relevance if enough people pay attention to it but I don't see the logic.

GVI Forex Blog 12:25 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 07-Jan-2010 - 1224 GMT

Medan Ardent 12:25 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable

78.6 and 86.2 % is the default fibonacci numbers at my FT chart

GVI Forex Jay 12:23 GMT January 7, 2010
risk mgmt q?

JB, we have no problem with this discussion although it would be better suited for our Nuts and Bolts (threads) section, where posts have a longer shelf life and discussions can be continued for a longer time.

Toronto WS 12:12 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable

U.K J.B 12:00 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable: Reply
excuse my ignorance is 86.2 % a significant retracement level ?? not one i follow i must confess
======================================

In all my years of trading, I have never heard of this level either. Trained by DiNapoli and constantly supported (weekly) by (in my opinion at least) one of the BEST Fibonacci experts in the world today in Alan Oliver from Australia.

Alan suggested to me that if we follow the rules, the correct settings should be 12,5% and 87,5% which are eights in the cycles.

Try these numbers on your FibTool and see how often the price stops at least, at these levels.

sofia kaprikorn 12:09 GMT January 7, 2010
risk mgmt q?

if you would allow I could e-mail you or use the help forum.

U.K J.B 12:07 GMT January 7, 2010
risk mgmt q?

I have no problem answering at all . Good questions i am not sure Jay/John would want us taking up the space here though.

Medan Ardent 12:07 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable

1.5832 - 1.6240 >> 86.2% retracement

GVI Forex john 12:02 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

BOE rates unchanged QE program unchanged. No surprises.

sofia kaprikorn 12:01 GMT January 7, 2010
risk mgmt q?

J.B - hello and tnx for attn.

I wanted to ask as continuation of some previous conversations on trading and risk mgmt - you mentioned once you like to scale in gradually and give around 2% of total equity per whole position.

1. building positions - would I be correct in assuming you start building position in increments of like 0.5% so as the price moves around your initial level you scale in in 3-4 levels until you build the whole limit you allocate per this trade idea?

2. call levels - I've read in Market Wizards Bruce Kovner said the same that he leaves no stops however at particular levels he has organized so that the positions are liquidated.
while I understand hr idea of a call level - I wanted to ask how much would you risk per position until you throw in the towel?

I realize this might be sensitive info so I'd respect your unwillingness to answer specifics. tia!

U.K J.B 12:00 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable

excuse my ignorance is 86.2 % a significant retracement level ?? not one i follow i must confess

London SFH 11:57 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable

Ardent

I am with you on that one, also long here.

Have also purcghased gold at 1131, looking for a move towards 1150.

gl/gt

Medan Ardent 11:54 GMT January 7, 2010
Long Cable
Reply   
Buy GBP
Entry: 1.5900 Target: 1.6230 Stop: 1.5860

long calbe near 86.2 % retracemant

U.K J.B 11:53 GMT January 7, 2010
dolls/chf
Reply   
selling out dolls/chf longs from yesterday using the res. area in euro dolls from yesterday. I have a little res here in dolls/chf so 1.0352 looks a reasonable level to lock in

Hong Kong Qindex 11:50 GMT January 7, 2010
USD

Varna GV 11:42 GMT : I will try to update NASDAQ some time next week.

GVI Forex john 11:43 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

No rate change is expected from the BOE. Focus is on any tidbits about future of Quantitative Ease (QE) policies.

U.K J.B 11:43 GMT January 7, 2010
risk mgmt q?

Sofia Kaprikon- i am here for a short while if u would like to fire away. I try and answer questions but as you can appreicate i am not here all the time. If i dont reply i am not being rude just missed the post.

USA ZEUS Thanks appreciate your kind words and also San Diego bobl a excellant post. Obviously i have many views on this but a little pushed for time today.

Varna GV 11:42 GMT January 7, 2010
USD
Reply   
USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Qindex, sir what about nasdaq??
Thanks in advance!!!

GVI Forex john 11:40 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Countdown to U.K. Data @ 12:00 GMT

Central Bank Policy Decision


Often a major events for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.

GVI Forex Blog 11:29 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   
The yen fell against the dollar and other currencies on Thursday after Japan's new finance minister said he wanted it to weaken more, stirring talk the government may be more inclined to stem any sharp yen rise.

FOREX NEWS-Japan finance minister comments knock yen

Hong Kong Qindex 11:11 GMT January 7, 2010
QIndex Trading System

DJIA
Entry: Target: Stop:

DJIA : Critical Point 10804


As shown in the monthly cycle directional indicator, the market is consolidating within the weekly cycle pivot centers at 10428 - 10623 - 10784 for the time being. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is above 10804. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the bias is on upside when the market is trading above 10339.


DJIA : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/djia.html

GVI Forex Blog 11:02 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   
- Currencies: Some risk aversion crept back into the market sentiment aiding the USD's tone.

European Market Update: Higher Chinese 3-month bill rate hints at potential tightening; risk aversion aids dollar; 'Wrath of Kan" weakens JPY

GVI Forex john 10:55 GMT January 7, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Clearer Market Patterns Developing

11:00 GMT- Jan 7 (global-view.com) Some direction seems to be developing in the global financial markets along the lines of what we had suggested late last year and early this week.

MORE...

GVI Forex Blog 10:26 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   
Traders of the USD await the publication of the Nonfarm Payrolls report due out tomorrow (Jan 8) .

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 07/01/2010

GENEVA JFO 09:51 GMT January 7, 2010
further advance for 1.4480
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: Target: Stop:

still long since 1.4300 last week with 1.4600 target

GENEVA JFO 09:49 GMT January 7, 2010
reversal
Reply   
Sell aussie
Entry: 9188 Target: 9050 Stop: 9250

aussie made the top earlier and is going back to the big figure

Juffair KaL 09:07 GMT January 7, 2010
EURNZD

cadjpy
most likely wants 84 area again
i think these days are the turning week
this 90 seems is the end

Viet Nam Forex Begin 09:06 GMT January 7, 2010
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Reply   
Buy GBP/USD
Entry: 1.5930 Target: 1.5960 Stop: 1.5900

Thursday, 07 January 2010 09:06 GMT

Today, gold price has indicator for up back.

It acts on mentality of investors and makes price of currencies moving slowly.

Signals for morning today (These signals were sent to our customers more two hour ago with price level at that moment)

Juffair KaL 08:59 GMT January 7, 2010
EURNZD
Reply   
seems like wants to correct to 2.1
still shorting for another day +
but 1.9380 area seems like could be it

FED 08:54 GMT January 7, 2010
Interest Rates / Open Losses on Feds bond holdings
Reply   
Everyday of this new year we had a fed official trying to talk up the Us treasury bond prices .

Bernanke, Duke,Hoenig,Bullard. Even Pimco is joiningin on this price manipulation.

Fed must be extremely concerned about the gigantic open losses they must have on their $ trillions bond postions. As with LTCM the positions are getting out of control imho , hence this daily verbal intervention.

Amman wfakhoury 08:50 GMT January 7, 2010
buy gbpusd
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:39 GMT January 7, 2010
from my desk: Reply
gbp/usd
we have the following levels to be touched
15930 since Tue.
16000 today
16045 yestrday.

-----
15930 touched ..awaiting 16000 again ...buy now tp 15990
buy another 15850 if decline exit both 15920.

BA mades 08:40 GMT January 7, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   


Simple chart.

Amman wfakhoury 08:39 GMT January 7, 2010
from my desk
Reply   
gbp/usd
we have the following levels to be touched
15930 since Tue.
16000 today
16045 yestrday.

PAR 08:08 GMT January 7, 2010
Problems
Reply   
BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)--Argentina's private-sector banks association, Adeba, on Wednesday called on Central Bank Governor Martin Redrado to end a showdown with the government and step aside, to preserve the stability of the financial system.

Earlier, Redrado had refused to leave after being asked to by Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez, on behalf of President Cristina Fernandez.

The administration had become frustrated at delays by Redrado in transferring $6.6 billion in foreign exchange reserves to the Treasury, to be able to pay debts this year.

SACRAMENTO, California (Reuters) - California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on Wednesday vowed to pry more dollars from the federal government, which he said took more than it gave, but left details on how to close a $19.9 billion state budget gap until later this week.

In a state of the state speech, the governor said creating jobs was the top priority for his last year in office and proposed spending $500 million in worker training funded by part of the budget which is in surplus.

He also laid out ambitious reforms for the final year of his term -- almost certain to include months of budget battle.

A consortium of four Japanese general contractors and one Turkish firm is reportedly set to suspend work on the Dubai Metro over delayed payments for construction, it was reported on Thursday.

The consortium members including Obayashi Corp, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd, Mitsubishi Corp and Kajima Corp has decided to halt work for the time being, placing priority on talks with the Dubai government, newswire Dow Jones reported, citing Japan's business daily Nikkei.




Juffair KaL 08:08 GMT January 7, 2010
usdcad
Reply   
very intersting
longing at 1.0290
seems ok...but only for another tight range for next day
1.036 tgt seems ok

Longer term 1.08 seems ok too
i think that 1.028 is the lowest

sofia kaprikorn 08:07 GMT January 7, 2010
USD CAD
Reply   
RKG..

hello sir - may I pls confirm - RHS should mean buyer, correct?

Juffair KaL 08:01 GMT January 7, 2010
eurjpy
Reply   
eurjpy
short here
for 132 tgt

usdcad still needs time
1.0389 seems wants south again

empoli ab 07:56 GMT January 7, 2010
usd/yen
Reply   
usd/yen
Entry: Target: Stop:

Some interesting thoughts on yen by Nomura intl:

"Implications of new Finance Minister Kan (from Ikeda san)

Appointment of new Finance Minister Kan could be JPY negative on margin

Today, Naoto Kan (63) was appointed the new Finance Minister of Japan, succeeding Hirohisa Fujii (77), who has been ill in hospital over the past two weeks.

In our view, Kan's appointment will be regarded as relatively JPY negative on margin. There are two points of discussion: Forex policy and fiscal policy.

1) Kan appears to be more flexible and market friendly than Fujii, who has often been seen as dogmatic. As a Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Kan tended to stress the importance of an active monetary policy to weaken JPY. He actually argued prior to BOJ's additional easing (1 Dec), that higher real interest rates in Japan were one of the factors causing appreciation of JPY. When USD/JPY rallied to 88 as a reaction to the BOJ action, he said "I wish the yen would weaken a little more". Then, when USD/JPY reached 90, he said "Since the majority of Japanese companies are assuming USD/JPY at 90 or above, I think USD/JPY moving close to 90 is a good thing."

We do not think Mr Kan will take immediate action to weaken JPY further from the current level. If USD/JPY rapidly breaks the 90 level again, however, he may act much sooner than Fuji would have, in our view, beginning with verbal intervention.

2) As an old-school ex-MOF bureaucrat, Hirohisa Fujii advocated fiscal discipline. Compared to him, Naoto Kan appears to be more pro-growth/populist and less concerned about Japan's ailing fiscal conditions. We believe that a change in fiscal policy could exacerbate expansion of the budget. In this context as well, his appointment looks JPY negative in the medium-term.

But not significant enough to change our bullish view on JPY

That said, today's political event is not significant enough to change our bullish view on JPY for the following reasons:

1) Although the market will likely view Kan as more active in terms of intervention policy, internationally such a move is increasingly frowned upon: the US-Japan relationship has been worsening as a result of issues surrounding the US military base at Futenma in Okinawa. A new Finance Minister could easily talk down JPY but may find it difficult to implement real intervention without US support.

2) The majority of the USD/JPY rally since the beginning of December is attributable to the widening interest rate differential between US and Japan, in our view. Of course, this was largely a result of the rise in US rate hike expectations. If the market (again) factors in such a bullish scenario, we think USD/JPY will naturally decline with it.

3) The majority of Japanese exporters had already completed JPY hedging operations for FY2009 (ending Mar 2010) when USDJPY rose above 90 as a reaction to surprising payrolls data from the US. Since then, there have been no significant JPY (forward) buying orders from them, allowing JPY to weaken without strong resistance. However, as is typical for the second half of January, Japanese exporters will start hedging their FX exposures. Considering that their medium-term target for USDJPY on average is around 90, we think they will see it as a good opportunity to buy JPY above that level to lock in their profits."

Juffair KaL 07:26 GMT January 7, 2010
Longer term Trades
Reply   
NZDJPY
on reversal for less then 62
audnzd
on way to 1.31

gbpchf...Might take a bite longer to revese for 1.70

Hong Kong Qindex 07:18 GMT January 7, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Juffair KaL 05:36 GMT - Good Trades.

Syd 06:51 GMT January 7, 2010
DJ Japan Kan: Want Yen To Weaken Bit Further
Reply   
Japan Kan: Businesses To Think Dollar Around Y95 Appropriate

Juffair KaL 06:00 GMT January 7, 2010
gbpjpy crash
Reply   
will dive bad to 145.6 tgt
short and adding

Juffair KaL 05:36 GMT January 7, 2010
QIndex Trading System

I Just shorted it Dr Q
Cable will crash now
1.5850 tgt
you agree?

Syd 04:18 GMT January 7, 2010
USD Won't Halt Commodity Currencies - BarCap
Reply   
USD strength won't halt momentum in commodity currencies, given its negative correlation with equities and commodities is declining, say Barclays Capital FX Strategists. "We do not think USD strength will be a large restriction on commodity currency strength." Notes USD gains on back of better data is also a positive for cyclical assets, such as AUD. AUD/USD last 0.9239.

GVI Forex Blog 03:52 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 07-Jan-2010 - 0340 GMT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:13 GMT January 7, 2010
QIndex Trading System

GBP/AUD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/AUD : I use this pair as a leading indicator for the market movement of GBP/USD.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:12 GMT January 7, 2010
QIndex Trading System

GBP/AUD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/AUD : The market is under pressure when it is below the daily cycle matrix system at 1.7481 - 1.7680 - 1.7695. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market the market is heading towards 1.7059. A projected supporting point is located at 1.7235. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.


GBP/AUD : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gbp-aud.html
===================================


01/05/2010 03:19:45 Qindex Hong Kong 12

Sell GBP/CAD
Entry: Target: Stop:
GBP/CAD : As shown in the directional indicator the market is under pressure when it is below 1.6798. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the marke is trading below the monthly cycle pivot center at 1.6580.

USA ZEUS 01:46 GMT January 7, 2010
USD/JPY Zeus Bands
Reply   


USD/JPY Nonlinear Quadratic Polynomial Zeus Bands

Hong Kong 01:45 GMT January 7, 2010
GBP/USD Daily Outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:1.6028

Last Update At 07 Jan 2010 00:54 GMT

Despite rising in tandem with euro at Asian open
ing, as price has retreated fm 1.6060, suggesting
further 'choppy' trading below y'day's high at 1.60
65 wud continue n downside bias is seen for another
pullback to 1.6000 but reckon 1.5973 wud hold.

In view of abv analysis, turn short on recovery,
stop as indicated, abv may risk 1.6100 b4 down.


Range Forecast
1.6015 / 1.6050

Resistance/Support
R: 1.6065/1.6084/1.6126
S: 1.5973/1.5938/1.5913

Syd 01:16 GMT January 7, 2010
Inflation Will Help Make Up RBA's Mind - ICAP
Reply   
Australian consumers are clearly back on their feet, but decision on a February rate hike will be driven by inflation outcome, says ICAP Economist Adam Carr. "There's not one reasonable argument to hear about weakness on the consumer front. There's not one indicator pointing to weakness." Says there's a good chance RBA will hike in February, given strong buildings approvals, but says inflation will need to be very weak to keep RBA from hiking.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:57 GMT January 7, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : The market is tackling the barrier at 1139.1 // 1153.3.


==================================


01/03/2010 08:40:53 Qindex Hong Kong 25

Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold : Resistant Point at 1188.5


As shown in the monthly cycle directional indicator the market is stable when it is above 1051.0. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is above the weekly cycle pivot center at 1129.2. A resistant point is located at 1188.5.


Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gc.html






12/28/2009 02:35:22 Qindex Hong Kong 34

Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 1152.6.


12/28/2009 02:26:36 Qindex Hong Kong 35

Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold : The long term upside targeting point is 1332.0 and the downside risk is 874.8. The time frame is three to six months. As shown in the monthly cycle directional indicator the market is stable when it is trading above 1103.4. The short term upside targeting point is 1180.5. Buy on dips is the preferred trading strategy.


Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gc.html





12/25/2009 01:35:06 Qindex Hong Kong 43

Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold : The market is positive when it is above the weekly cycle pivot centers at 1103.8 - 1105.7. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above 1138.0.


Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gc.html




12/23/2009 16:06:27 Qindex Hong Kong 45

Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold : It is charging ahead after finding support around 1080.

Syd 00:56 GMT January 7, 2010
Feb RBA Rate Hike Looks Likely After Data - JPM
Reply   
Economists are translating Thursday's strong November retail sales figure as sign RBA is now more likely to tighten interest rates come February. "Given the amount of discounting in the weeks after Christmas, we would have thought these numbers would fall," says Helen Kevans, economist with JPMorgan. "We're now looking for a February rate hike." Among the areas Kevans highlighted in the report were clothing and department store sales, where she says latest month's strength was especially surprising

Syd 00:37 GMT January 7, 2010
Australia Nov Trade Deficit A$1.70B
Reply   
-Australia's seasonally adjusted balance on trade in goods and services narrowed to a deficit of A$1.70 billion in November from a deficit of A$2.08 xillion in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

The figure is lower than analysts' expectations of a deficit of A$1.8 billion.

Syd 00:31 GMT January 7, 2010
aud
Reply   
Australia Nov Adjusted Retail Sales +1.4%; Consensus +0.3%
Australia Nov Trade Deficit A$1.7B Vs Deficit A$1.8B Consensus

Syd 00:15 GMT January 7, 2010
Arnie in a spot of bover
Reply   
SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on Wednesday asked Washington for funds to help close his state's massive budget shortfall -- a move some other states are likely to follow in coming months as they deal with their own fiscal woes.n all, state budget gaps total about $256 billion for the fiscal years 2009-11, with 36 states on track to cut their budgets a total of $55.7 billion this year, according to estimates by the National Association of State Budget Officers. WSJ

GVI Forex Blog 00:13 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   

Absence of Major Buyers Keeps Lid on Equity Markets

GVI Forex Blog 00:12 GMT January 7, 2010 Reply   

Fed Minutes Push Dollar Lower into Close

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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