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Forex Forum Archive for 01/14/2010

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex Blog 23:33 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   

Good Auction Demand Sends Treasury Bonds Higher

GVI Forex Blog 23:27 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   

Chart Pattern Suggest Further Weakness in Dollar

USA ZEUS 23:06 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

Dollar Crisis Looms if US Doesn't Curb Debt:

"The United States must soon raise taxes or cut government spending to curb its debt, and failure to act will risk a crippling dollar crisis as investor confidence ebbs, a panel of experts said on Wednesday."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34848783



Impressive! Only took two years for the panel of experts to come up with that conclusion

USA ZEUS 22:42 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

Actually, have alarms triggering all over on my "wall" of charts warning of such...

USA ZEUS 22:40 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

If it works then.....LOL

lkwd jj 22:38 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

hope it wasent your cat!!

USA ZEUS 22:35 GMT January 14, 2010
USD
Reply   
Something tells me that a short term USD surge is about to begin.

USA ZEUS 22:33 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY

jj- With proper triggers, reckon you could buy on dips down to approx 90.95 unless overall structure changes.
GLGT!

GVI Forex Blog 22:10 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
The Canadian dollar shot to a three-month high against the U.S. currency on Thursday as the greenback fell on soft U.S. economic data and the Canadian unit gained momentum after piercing key technical levels.

Forex News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ pierces key levels to touch 3-month high

lkwd jj 21:59 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY
Reply   
zues at what level will you long usdjpy again? last time had a good runup.

Syd 21:28 GMT January 14, 2010
Intel profit surges to $2.3 billion;
Reply   
tech bellwether also issues upbeat forecast
LINK

Syd 21:22 GMT January 14, 2010
Dollar Falls Against Yen on Unexpected Drop in U.S. Retail
Reply   
LINK

Buy Canadian Dollar Versus Japanese Currency, Citigroup Says
LINK

Dollar Momentum Slowed by Rate Outlook, Ruskin of RBS Says
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Higher-yielding currencies are more attractive because the U.S. dollar’s momentum will be slowed by interest rates likely to be lower for longer than expected, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.
“Sell the G4 including the U.S. dollar, buy any of the countries high on the tightening list,” wrote Alan Ruskin, head of currency strategy at RBS Securities in Stamford Connecticut, in a note to clients today. He recommended purchasing the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone, Israel shekel, South Korean won and Indian rupee.
LINK



GVI Forex Blog 21:16 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
21:00 GMT- Jan 14 (global-view.com) Trading in the key EURUSD pair centered around the newly-neutral 1.4500 level on Thursday. The trading range was pretty much equally distributed around that price

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Back Looking for Direction

GVI Forex john 21:11 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Back Looking for Direction

21:00 GMT- Jan 14 (global-view.com) Trading in the key EURUSD pair centered around the newly-neutral 1.4500 level on Thursday. The trading range was pretty much equally distributed around that price. No market-moving information was forthcoming from the European Central Bank policy decision.

MORE...

Lahore FM 20:52 GMT January 14, 2010
Trade Ideas

usdchf
Entry: 1.0186 Target: Stop: 1.0160

2nd long in now.

HK [email protected] 20:43 GMT January 14, 2010
Stubborn MKT
Reply   
From chart gazing I suspect Aus/USD will trade later today at the 93.60/70 range.

USA ZEUS 20:28 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD



Delta Force

Lahore FM 19:55 GMT January 14, 2010
Trade Ideas

usdcad
Entry: Target: Stop:

2nd long in now at 1.0235,stops 1.0170.

USA ZEUS 19:52 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD

Darn it. Thought I entered the order for my trailing mechanism, walked away and came back, only to find my position to be flat right at my last exit. Guess I fat fingered it and unknowingly exited @ market. Oh well.

Happy Day!

GVI Forex Blog 19:47 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   

Dollar Feeling Pressure at the Mid-Session

GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

If the CFTC goes through with this proposal we will be trading in the futures markets in 60 days Read this

USA ZEUS 19:28 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD

Covered a bunch @ 1.4494 and will keep the remaining at the highs for b/e.

GVI Forex Blog 19:23 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
US equities paused at their 12mth highs after a consensus-missing retail sales report, although positive revisions meant little negative fallout in markets. The S&P500 is currently little changed, and waits for benchmark Intel's Q4 earnings report which will be released after the close of trading.

Forex Research - Morning Report

USA ZEUS 19:14 GMT January 14, 2010
USD/CAD

Added 1.0238's

USA ZEUS 19:00 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD

Thought the 11's would hold it.
Let's see if the bigs @ 20 gets it done.

GVI Forex john 19:00 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

Cutting leverage to 10 to 1 is unfair to retail traders. Be sure to make your feelings felt at the CFTC. Futures...

THREAD: CFTC Proposed Regulations UPDATED

USA ZEUS 18:54 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD

Massive short 1.4520. Final allocation for now.

USA ZEUS 18:53 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD

Hmm Added a bunch of 1.4515's to short.

GVI Forex Jay 18:52 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

Read this: CFTC Seeks Public Comment on Proposed Regulations Regarding Retail FOREX Transactions. It is proposing...

THREAD: CFTC Proposed Regulations UPDATED

USA ZEUS 18:28 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD

And added @ 1.4511. Enough for this surge.

USA ZEUS 18:28 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD

And added @ 1.4511. Enough for this surge.

lkwd jj 18:26 GMT January 14, 2010
usdjpy
Reply   
90.71 on radar screen and approaching. below there opens 90.20.

USA ZEUS 18:23 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD

Added short 1.4507 for now.

USA ZEUS 18:10 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   
Short EUR/USD @ 1.4500

London SEB 17:16 GMT January 14, 2010
re
Reply   
U.K J.B 14:48 GMT January 14, 2010
eurusd: Reply
Wish respect Tallinn , i think your stop is a little tight. I respect your calls and risk man. but i would not like to see you stopped out of a good position. I think we may test 1.4450 for a rebound to 1.4600 again just my thoughts.

JB, where do u get your levels from ???

lkwd jj 17:14 GMT January 14, 2010
GBP/USD

couldve had my longs if you would call me.

lkwd jj 17:12 GMT January 14, 2010
GBP/USD

good aim!

Miami JN 17:11 GMT January 14, 2010
euro

It was a classic stop hunt below eurusd 1.4450 as seen by the quick snapback.

USA ZEUS 17:09 GMT January 14, 2010
USD/CAD

Added @ 1.0248

USA ZEUS 17:06 GMT January 14, 2010
GBP/USD
Reply   
Short GBP/USD @ 1.6336

lkwd jj 17:06 GMT January 14, 2010
best trade ideas
Reply   
the link on top of the forum highlighted in yellow doesnt go anywhere. instead of posting a message and then adding details maybe that link should work to make it easier to get to. post a message has in it entry, stop and target but maybe it would help to fix it.

USA ZEUS 17:05 GMT January 14, 2010
USD/CAD
Reply   
Long USD/CAD 1.0259

USA ZEUS 17:01 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

U.K J.B 15:58 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD: Reply
Zeus , i like that. I did work on a ice cream van when i was 13...
_______________________________________________________

I knew it!...No Christmas card with the box of chocolates? Hmm... perhaps the paper was confiscated to fund Whirly Bird Ben's Santa Claus operations.

Cheers!

USA ZEUS 16:57 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD beat Rolls on



Delta Delta

USA ZEUS 16:56 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD beat Rolls on
Reply   


Delta

U.K J.B 16:53 GMT January 14, 2010
cable

quite a few, i am one of them....

Long euro/cad 1.4855 ....

GVI Forex Blog 16:52 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Greece has emerged again as a negative for EUR, but there is still a reluctance to really hammer it on sovereign risk. I can’t help but think that downgrades to US state credit ratings like California offsets the Greek downgrades and credit concerns.

Forex Blog - Observations for the week…

Juffair KaL 16:36 GMT January 14, 2010
usdcad

usdchf
all pointing north
Longing to 1.04

lkwd jj 16:36 GMT January 14, 2010
cable
Reply   
how many sellers are there above the high of 22? cant seem to punch it through..imho news lately from uk looking better than from usa.

Gen dk 16:34 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 16:32 GMT January 14, 2010
Your Best Trading Ideas
Reply   
Buy
Entry: Target: Stop:

To All Forex forum members. We would like to see everyone share their Best Single Trading Idea. This community works best when a lot of ideas are tossed out and discussed.

A COMPLETE trading idea has an entry level, a stop price and a target. Feel free to adjust your stop and target later as needed. Don't worry about being wrong. Everyone in forex who is honest is wrong a lot. Thats why the stop is critical.

GVI Forex Blog 16:28 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
The USD/CAD was held bearish after short-term downsloping trendline held as the resistance at the 1.0400 level. In the Daily, you can see that the market is near oversold area, but is crossing...

Daily Technical Update USD/CAD Bearish Continuation Signal

Juffair KaL 16:28 GMT January 14, 2010
usdcad
Reply   
usdcad
15
60
and daily
all show north
not the 5 minutes
might take another 2-4 hrs
maybe another 20 to 30 pips south
the north

GVI Forex Blog 16:21 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
In currencies, the greenback faced mixed action as weaker US retail sales data highlighted the continued challenges faced by the budding economic recovery.

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

GVI Forex john 16:20 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Note we cited earlier that our daily Chart Points table pivot point based support came in at 1.4447. today. I show that level as the low of the day. Next support 1.4389.

GVI Forex Blog 16:13 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Jan 14 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: A key early data highlight Friday will be EZ inflation data for December. The ECB targets the CPI (HICP). In North America, various top-tier data will be released.

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for January 15, 2010

Miami JN 16:13 GMT January 14, 2010
euro

stop hunt?

nyc ws 16:12 GMT January 14, 2010
euro

Weight of weak crosses hitting eurusd and taking out stops at 1.4450

GVI Forex john 16:09 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Jan 14 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: A key early data highlight Friday will be EZ inflation data for December. The ECB targets the CPI (HICP). In North America, various top-tier data will be released. They include: the Empire State PMI, CPI, Industrial Production/ Capacity Utilization and the University of Michigan Sentiment survey.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

10:00

EZ

Dec HICP yy

0.90%

0.50%

10:00

EZ

Dec HICP x-f&e yy

0.90%

1.00%

10:00

EZ

Nov Trade EURb

4.5

8.8

13:30

US

Jan Empire PMI

12

2.6

13:30

US

Dec CPI mm

0.20%

0.40%

13:30

US

Dec core CPI

0.10%

0.00%

14:15

US

Dec Ind Prod

0.60%

0.80%

14:15

US

Dec Cap Util

71.70%

71.30%

14:55

US

Janp U Mich Sent

74

72.5

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

0:01

US

Holiday

n/a

n/a

4:30

JA

Nov Ind Out rev

n/a

2.6

 

U.K J.B 16:01 GMT January 14, 2010
OBSERVATION
Reply   
I really dont think there is anything going on. Levels have not changed for me . i think the brokers etc just having a feel day with stops as we are in tight ranges. The key for me is to find your r/r and value trades. Good hunting...

U.K J.B 15:58 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

Zeus , i like that. I did work on a ice cream van when i was 13 , so 20 years ago ( yeah rite ) if i can count that.

Seems the forum a friendlier place , shame when there is so much animosity puts people off all the best

By the way between you and me i did not even get a christmas card from GVI...

GVI Forex Blog 15:58 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Price action on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, continues to display some robust bullishness on its sustained rebound off the late-December low. This rebound has broken out above several

Chart of the Day - 1/14/2010 – AUD/USD

nyc ws 15:57 GMT January 14, 2010
euro
Reply   
euro is getting whacked on its crosses today. Below e/j 131.54 would be an outside day.

USA ZEUS 15:55 GMT January 14, 2010
start a swing trade

For a fairly flat market my quad cores are screaming and the RAID O's are humming...Hmpf

USA ZEUS 15:54 GMT January 14, 2010
start a swing trade

My model agrees as well. USD/CAD in buy mode and to be entered ONLY on triggers. GLGT

GVI Forex john 15:53 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Learning And Education Forum

...

THREAD: Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders UPDATED

Juffair KaL 15:51 GMT January 14, 2010
start a swing trade
Reply   
usdcad
now daily a buy
hourly a buy
15 Minutes a Buy
hmmm
what could go wrong?

so is gbpchf long

NYC va 15:50 GMT January 14, 2010
euro/stg
Reply   
Buy EURGBP
Entry: 0.8875 Target: later (0.90+) Stop: 0.8810ish

mine was also executed

USA ZEUS 15:50 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

U.K J.B 15:45 GMT January 14, 2010

What a tease- hahaha! During your prior life you must have been in sales.
Long live GV...Three cheers!!!!

GVI Forex john 15:47 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Learning And Education Forum

The export price index is an index calculated for the prices of one or any specified group of commodities entering...

THREAD: Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders UPDATED

U.K J.B 15:45 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

Not seen any of it so i will log in and take a look. I must say the GVI is a excellant forum and if you do get the opportunity to subscibe i think it is very well worth while. I am not promoting or on commision but i think this side certainly miss quite a bit so the subscribtion fee more than pays for itself with the info flow.

I will now how a conversation with Pumpkin on the otherside this should be fun haha

tokyo ginko 15:45 GMT January 14, 2010
Long USD/CAD

add 1.0270 25%

lkwd jj 15:45 GMT January 14, 2010
usdjpy
Reply   

Entry: 9119 Target: 9060 Stop: 9060

selling here as mkt cant stay above pivot level 9133 after big run up. was not in or else would've sold higher. long term trend prevailing .

Toronto Pumpkin 15:32 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

Yes, read it, JB. That's why i commented. I don't know your contacts. As per GVI, we ran the flow.
And yes, HC, not spec.

U.K J.B 15:31 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

As i was saying NYC JM , I agree with your post. Especailly the IMM players and how illiquid the dolls/cad market is. I think this is a wrong levels to be shorting dolls/cad GL

London HC 15:30 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

Pumpkin, by that do you mean it is not speculative but transaction flow with no regard to the usdcad market rate?

U.K. J.B 15:29 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

Pumpkin- do you know my contacts ?? I made a post based on my info flow..

USA ZEUS 15:27 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

Perhaps current CAD action may be transaction driven into tar sands and other energy matrices.

Toronto Pumpkin 15:27 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

large real money interest today was not directional.

lkwd jj 15:26 GMT January 14, 2010
cable
Reply   
pivot was just under todays low 16242(low 48). target r1 16347 with potential higher. if eurgbp stays heavy, like yesterday, should get there.

NYC JM 15:26 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

JB, usd/cad is always a strange animal (for me) and guess that is why it is called the loonie. Futures traders like ii because it usually trades very technical.

U.K J.B 15:23 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

Dolls/cad is a strange animal at the moment, not technically or fundamentally driven . All i can say that real money accounts and interesting European connections have been selling today . I think they are wrong but certainly been the case today.

U.K J.B 15:23 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD

Dolls/cad is a strange animal at the moment, not technically or fundamentally driven . All i can say that real money accounts and interesting European connections have been selling today . I think they are wrong but certainly been the case today.

GVI Forex john 15:19 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 15:30 GMT

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories


Weekly estimates of working gas volumes in underground natural gas storage facilities from the Energy Information Administration, US Dept. of Energy.

Hong Kong JC 15:14 GMT January 14, 2010
CAD
Reply   
May I know what happen to CAD? suddenly rise a lot.

USA ZEUS 15:00 GMT January 14, 2010
USD/JPY

nj jf 15:09 GMT January 13, 2010
USD/JPY: Reply
fair point - my choice of word wasn't the best - but the meaning remains - people with other views don't have to agree with you nor you with them... gt.

_______________________________________________________

Just as a brief followup- wanted to express that I appreciate all market views. In fact, I wish more people would post their trading ideas here (incl the GV guys and gals).
Variety is the spice of life. We can agree or disagree in full respect as we see and learn new ideas and angles to trading. I have always kindly replied to those who speak in similar and common tone. However, when attacked or bashed personally (not the same as disagreeing on a market view, trade or call) in the past, it became a game changer of different sorts. The call to put up or shut up was invoked.

Cheers!

GVI Forex john 14:54 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 15:00 GMT

Business/Wholesale Inventories


Inventory statistics from the various stages of the manufacturing process are included in the Wholesale Trade Report. When inventories increase production demand is thought to decrease and vice versa. Inventory swings often affect the GDP calculation.

IMPACT: This statistic is usually more closely followed by economists than by traders.

USA ZEUS 14:51 GMT January 14, 2010
DOLLS/YEN

U.K J.B 14:33 GMT January 14, 2010

Thanks a lot J.B. and great calls by you sir! Did post some offloading here right @ 92 when seen and am leaving the remaining @ b/e with buy orders down deep that will only cancel if the structure reverses.

Cheers!

U.K J.B 14:48 GMT January 14, 2010
eurusd

Wish respect Tallinn , i think your stop is a little tight. I respect your calls and risk man. but i would not like to see you stopped out of a good position. I think we may test 1.4450 for a rebound to 1.4600 again just my thoughts.

tallinn viies 14:44 GMT January 14, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
bought euros at 1,4482. stop at 1,4452. target 1,4545

USA ZEUS 14:37 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   


Battle at the bulge.

U.K J.B 14:33 GMT January 14, 2010
DOLLS/YEN
Reply   
Nice calls on the dolls/yen longs well Zeus etc hopefully the res at 9203 was spotted i am sure it was . London SEB just seen your comment nothing special to report really very range trading which has surprised me a little for the start of a new trading year.. GL I also like the dolls/cad longs we just have to watch the oil market such a big influence and euro/cad. Tokyo Ginko i like your style of trading averaging into the position but only risking 25 % all the best everyone ...

GVI Forex Blog 14:30 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
ECB keeps rates unchanged Kan wants more BoJ easing Mixed U.S. data

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (14 January 2010)

U.K J.B 14:21 GMT January 14, 2010
euro/stg
Reply   
Levels hit on euro/stg Long 8884 , yes it does look very very offered ... res 9027 feel we will test this area again good r/r imho... GT/GL

tokyo ginko 14:05 GMT January 14, 2010
Long USD/CAD

add another 25% usd/cad 1.0300

moscow mike 14:05 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY
Reply   
Rest 2/3 of usdjpy longs stopped for profit at 91.20 for +40.

Reentry here 1/2 @ 91.25, stops later.

tokyo ginko 13:53 GMT January 14, 2010
long 91.20
Reply   
Buy USD/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

gt all

Ath. L.K. 13:51 GMT January 14, 2010
Euro
Reply   
With other words,US will increase the rates,first...

Good Luck

GVI Forex Blog 13:41 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Notes from the 2009 Central Propaganda Department in China: C. Currently, our country’s main internal contradictions (conflicts) are...

Maybe Google Knows Something…

GVI Forex john 13:41 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Weekly Jobless in line with recent trends. Note seasonal adjustments this time of year are a shot in the dark.


Click on chart for seven-year history

GVI Forex Blog 13:27 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   

Equity Markets Flatten Out Ahead of U.S. Retail Sales Report

GVI Forex Blog 13:27 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   

Forex Traders await European Central Bank Policy Decision

Juffair KaL 13:22 GMT January 14, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
i think some buyers are here
at this low

London Chris 13:17 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

Is that based on futures volume?

USA ZEUS 13:10 GMT January 14, 2010
USD



London Chris 13:00 GMT January 14, 2010

Chris- Basically just trades at the bid vs ask next to each price. The more dominate and significant the volume, the bolder the color. You could also compare the "delta" of net + or - from one bar to the next. Looks like there might be some "clustering below 1.44..

Cheers

GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @13:30 GMT

Weekly jobless data


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.


Retail Sales

Retail Sales are usually a broad measure of the retail sale of consumer durable and non-durables. It is used by analysts to gauge the strength of consumer consumption.

IMPACT: In most economies, the consumer sector is the largest sector of the economy. Central banks watch retail sales to measure the strength of the economy.

sofia kaprikorn 13:03 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

Welles Wilder is one of those system geniuses - his original book is on top of my desk. cheers!

London Chris 13:00 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

Zeus when you get a chance could you explain what the delta chart shows. TIA

GVI Forex john 13:00 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


Chart Points

Pivot point based on Wednesday's range in EURUSD is 1.4515 today, Below that line look for enthusiasm for new EURUSD longs to be minimal. There already have been many chances to buy. First pivot point based support 1.4447.

USA ZEUS 12:58 GMT January 14, 2010
USD



USD bias on the Delta Phenomenon for EUR/USD?

moscow mike 12:57 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

thanks jkt, perhaps we meet there soon again.

Kind regards.

GVI Forex Futures 12:55 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

No surprise, total open interest up only 1107 contracts yesterday in the euro fx contract on the IMM. Suggests indecisiveness to me. Those taking a long position are going to need a further advance to support that sentiment.

HK [email protected] 12:55 GMT January 14, 2010
AUS/USD
Reply   
Has all the capacity to stage a surprise rally to [0.9400,0.9450], so for the doubt not sure that a short will work well.

jkt-aye 12:49 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

thx Mike. miss u on the beach :) gtgl

Gen dk 12:47 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 12:46 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

ECB keeps rates steady as expected.

GVI Forex john 12:45 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



CHART: Australia jobs. Rate hike in February likely.

moscow mike 12:38 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

jkt - i prefer buying usd's on dips

jkt-aye 12:32 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

Sell on every USD Blip could work till early next week ?

moscow mike 12:23 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

Kirill - lets see. I spot some structural changes here, but also respecting some resistant levels. Only time will tell what the trend was. LOL.

GT

sofia kaprikorn 12:20 GMT January 14, 2010
USD

mike - usd/chf 4-h close above 1.0216/20 should resuld in a strong move for 1.0338 imho. gl/gt!

GVI Forex Blog 12:19 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 14-Jan-2010 - 1217 GMT

moscow mike 12:07 GMT January 14, 2010
USD
Reply   
Dollar is somewhat pushing today...

using usdchf last 4 day channel as a refrence could be hinting.

London M 11:55 GMT January 14, 2010
Long USD/CAD

Ginko
thank you very much about your post. I fully understand where you stand. You are a position taker while I am a day trader. Different time span

good luck on your trade!

HK REVDAX 11:38 GMT January 14, 2010
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader

Hong Kong//buy/sell? stop? target?

PAR 11:23 GMT January 14, 2010
TARP Assets
Reply   
Buying a house is easy , selling a house could become very difficult.

The Treasury Department will own billions of dollars worth of financial assets when a taxpayer-financed bailout program is over and has not set clear principles for disposing them, a government watchdog agency said on Thursday.

The Congressional Oversight Panel's monthly report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program takes a critical view of Treasury's strategy for exiting the bailout, saying a scheduled Oct. 3 termination will not really be the end at all.

"After Treasury completes all of its TARP purchases, it will hold a massive pool of financial assets likely worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and the process of unwinding some of these holdings may continue for a number of years," the panel said.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34856599

GVI Forex Blog 11:15 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
Currencies: European peripherals spreads continue to erode the Euro's upward momentum. The Portuguese and Greek 10-year spread widened to fresh 3-week highs against the German bund as the Greek stability outline failed to provide enough confidence in curbing the fiscal concerns.

European market Update: Greece outlines its Stability plan

GVI Forex Blog 11:12 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
The yen fell broadly and the Australian dollar jumped on Thursday after a strong Australian employment report encouraged investors to pick up higher-yielding currencies.

FOREX NEWS - Yen falls, Aussie jumps on jobs data; ECB eyed

tokyo ginko 11:04 GMT January 14, 2010
Long USD/CAD

Hi,

There is always risk to downside.

My first target is 1.0460 and will monitor price movement and fundamental , then will decide on next target 1.0850/60

I am a position player. If dip below 1.02, I will add, at the same time, monitor price movement, fundamental and technical indicators.

Cheers

GVI Forex Blog 11:03 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   
11:00 GMT- Jan 12 (global-view.com) Dealers will be waiting for key information early in the session today with the European Central Bank policy decision due just before the NY open. Some are saying that the central bank could be saved from itself by the situation in Greece,

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Waiting for Mr. T.

GVI Forex john 11:01 GMT January 14, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Waiting for Mr. T.

11:00 GMT- Jan 12 (global-view.com) Dealers will be waiting for key information early in the session today with the European Central Bank policy decision due just before the NY open. Some are saying that the central bank could be saved from itself by the situation in Greece,

MORE...

Dubai MA 10:55 GMT January 14, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   
Sell EUR
Entry: 14506 Target: 14410 Stop: 14580

Where od you think Euro is heading for?

London M 10:47 GMT January 14, 2010
Long USD/CAD

morning Ginko,
where is your stops?
I am also thinking to go long, but there is some risk to drop below 1.0245/50 or even below 1.0200
tia

tokyo ginko 10:36 GMT January 14, 2010
Long USD/CAD

add 25% long usd/cad 1.0296

Amsterdam Purk 10:34 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY

And Thou needest some rest otherwise you will find yourself with your nose on the keyboard when you wake up. Your nose will be on the sell button at the end of the range...

Juffair KaL 10:29 GMT January 14, 2010
BB (24 hrs)

gbpchf..better take that out of list and add
euraud Longs

USA ZEUS 10:12 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY

Amsterdam Purk 09:59 GMT January 14, 2010

Great job Mr Purkson!!
You are the RangeMaster and called it!!
GLGT :-)

Juffair KaL 10:04 GMT January 14, 2010
BB (24 hrs)

eurgbp shorts
and gbpchf shorts
to add to the list

Amsterdam Purk 09:59 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY

Yes our beloved friend Dick longed at convient prices to take out the 95%ers...

sofia kaprikorn 09:59 GMT January 14, 2010
1.6242 daily pivot

new short GBP/USD 1.6290 / SL 1.6318
----
added 1/2 at 1.6276 // avg 1.6283 - SL 1.6318

Juffair KaL 09:56 GMT January 14, 2010
BB (24 hrs)

thanks pta

shorts on audcad here

PTA AHG 09:54 GMT January 14, 2010
Juffair KaL 09:44 GMT January 14, 2010
Reply   
Never understood your numbers untill yesterday. On GBPUSD very nice and accurate, the 1.6258 and 1.6304, price stil there, thanks. GLGT

sofia kaprikorn 09:51 GMT January 14, 2010
1.6242 daily pivot
Reply   
new short GBP/USD 1.6290 / SL 1.6318

Juffair KaL 09:48 GMT January 14, 2010
BB (24 hrs)

eurjpy shorts
euraud longs
audusd shorts
eurusd shorts
usdchf longs
gbpusd longs
BB 24 hrs
2 and 3 sigma
you will make money

Juffair KaL 09:44 GMT January 14, 2010
BB (24 hrs)
Reply   
if you wanna trade with this method

BB hourly 24 periods
using 2 and 3 sigma
for entry
will let you know the pairs
now doing nzdusd shorts
using that BB
so pull that chart and lets do it

USA ZEUS 09:37 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY

moscow mike 07:35 GMT January 14, 2010

Mike- Hats off friend. You really had this trade dialed in from the lows and crushed it!! The trend is your friend.
I guess what works, still works?! ;-)
Keep it up 'n cheers!!

moscow mike 09:33 GMT January 14, 2010
USD/JPY

Zeus, good trade off the bottom!

Can see now MAs are showing nice trend on the left side of the shorter term chart.

USA ZEUS 09:27 GMT January 14, 2010
USD/JPY

1/2 of the big allocation off the bottom taken @ 92.00, keeping the remaining for more upside @ b/e.
Nice "trend" here.

Patiala Ajit 08:55 GMT January 14, 2010
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !

Vietnam....

sometimes i get similar predictions in this portal - both have worked sometime or the other..

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com

Viet Nam Forex Begin 08:32 GMT January 14, 2010
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Reply   
Sell GBP/USD
Entry: 1.6284 Target: 1.6254 Stop: 1.6314

Thursday, 14 January 2010 08:32 GMT

Today is the day of US Dollar.

US Dollar will regain strongly.

The main trend is down.

Free Signals for morning today

PAR 08:12 GMT January 14, 2010
Job Creation
Reply   
Relationship between interest rates and job creation at best unclear , most likely inverse or uncorrelated.



Australia posts surprise drop in unemployment
By Peter Smith in Sydney

Published: January 14 2010 04:13 - Last updated: January 14 2010 04:13

Australia recorded an unexpected drop in December unemployment as the country’s economy generated triple the number of jobs economists’ had forecast.

Unemployment fell to 5.5 per cent, down from a revised 5.6 per cent in November, with the fall largely attributed to a surge in part-time employment

The Australian dollar spiked on the data as economists forecast the country’s central bank would next month raise interest rates following three successive monthly hikes at the end of last year.

This was the fourth consecutive month that Australia’s jobs numbers had surprised on the upside and the figures underline the robustness of the country’s economic recovery.

moscow mike 07:35 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY
Reply   
Taking off 1/3 of usdjpy longs for +100 pips at 91.80, stops/target remain.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:21 GMT January 14, 2010
QIndex Trading System

USDX
Entry: Target: Stop:

USDX : Critical Support 76.94



As shown in the monthly cycle charts the current expected trading range is 77.56 - 80.04. A critical point is located at 76.94 (see the session of long term references for position traders in my webpage). 77.56 is going to be a key reference for the next few months. The monthly cycle congested area indicates that the market has a tendency to trade within 74.54 - 78.80. In last week the high is 78.59. It is reasonable to believe that speculative selling pressure will increase when the market resumes its downward trending movement and penetrates through this key reference point at 76.94.



USDX : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/usd.html

GENEVA JFO 06:38 GMT January 14, 2010
eurusd is bid this morning
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: later Target: Stop:


STOPPED for 20 pips loss

==============================================
GENEVA JFO 17:08 GMT January 13, 2010
BACK IN THE MARKET: Reply
Sell eurusd
Entry: Target: Stop:

EXECUTED

=============================================
GENEVA JFO 16:32 GMT January 13, 2010
BACK IN THE MARKET: Reply
Sell eurusd
Entry: 1.4500 Target: later Stop: 1.4520

Take a chance on downside with 20 pips risk

Order in to sell at 1.4500

moscow mike 06:29 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY
Reply   
for USDJPY longs moving stop to day low @ 91.20

HK [email protected] 05:15 GMT January 14, 2010
High yield currencies
Reply   
Looks like the Japanese have lot of Yens to get rid of after the bad data and buy mostly high-yield currencies.

Syd 03:57 GMT January 14, 2010
ADB’s Kuroda agrees that the move by the Chinese Central Bank on reserve requirements was the righ
Reply   
Asia is showing signs of a sharp, V-shaped recovery from the economic crisis, the president of the Asian Development Bank said Thursday.
The economies of developing countries in Asia are expected to grow by 6.6% in 2010, up from an estimated 4.5% in 2009 and 6.1% in 2008, Haruhiko Kuroda said at the opening of an ADB forum in Manila on the impact of the global economic and financial crisis.
China' economy likely will grow 9% this year, up from an estimated 8% in 2009, Kuroda said.
Kuroda urged Asian central banks to time well their exit strategies from accommodative monetary policies, since tightening too early could stall growth, while doing it too late could stoke inflation, spur large debts and create fiscal problems.
He praised this week's surprise move by China to raise the level of reserves that banks must hold at the People's Bank of China by 50 basis points, to 16%.
The move "is quite appropriate given the strong, V-shaped recovery in the (Chinese) economy and overheating real estate market in some states," Kuroda said.
Policy there "is still expansionary," and "in no way will (this week's move) undermine growth."


GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT January 14, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 14-Jan-2010 - 0338 GMT

HK [email protected] 03:39 GMT January 14, 2010
Get a job, raise interest rates

Nothing to worry about low levels of unemploymet in Australia.
Soon to be flooded by waves of illegal immigrants from Asia :)

Hong Kong Qindex 03:19 GMT January 14, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/AUD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/AUD : The market is under pressure when it is rejected from the daily cycle matrix system at 1.7481 - 1.7623 - 1.7629.

Syd 03:16 GMT January 14, 2010
Get a job, raise interest rates
Reply   
How inconsiderate – all those people getting jobs and therefore ensuring further interest rate rises. Watch the mortgage class complain. Don't the poor know their place?

And if you really want to startle yourself about the strength of the Australian recovery, have a peek at the raw figures without any form of adjustment: there were a record 11,047,100 Australians in work last month, a jump of nearly 200,000 and an all-time record as the unemployment rate fell to 5.3 per cent.
Another 25-point rate hike is as good as locked in now for the February RBA board meeting and, if the current trend continues, March is looking like more of the same.

The RBA won't be phased by this week's market beat-up over their Chinese peers starting to tighten policy a little; they're likely to applaud it. And Martin Place already knows about the retailers strength even before some of the major players inform the market.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/
get-a-job-raise-interest-rates-20100114-m8eg.html

sofia kaprikorn 03:02 GMT January 14, 2010
range extension trade

sofia kaprikorn 17:00 GMT January 13, 2010
went short GBP/USD 1.6268 with 1.6299 stop
--------------
added 1/2 at 1.6284 / avg 1.6276 - stops 1.6244
________________________
trade closed at 1.6306 for -30.

USA ZEUS 02:57 GMT January 14, 2010
USD/JPY

Gains taken at 91.64 and leaving the remaining at b/e.

Hong Kong 02:47 GMT January 14, 2010
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
Market Review - 13/01/2010 22:08 All times in GMT
Dollar steadies after Fed's beige book


The greenback steadied on Wednesday while the yen fell broadly as investors concluded China's surprise hike of reserve ratio on Tuesday would not derail growth and the rebound in U.S. stocks attracted investors to move back to higher-yielding currencies.

The Fed released its Beige book in NY afternoon and reported that while economic activity remains at low levels in a majority of the areas covered by the survey, there were more signs of improvement.

Despite Tuesday's selloff to 90.73 versus the yen after China's central bank raised banks' reserve requirement by 0.5%, short-covering together with renewed cross selling in yen triggered a modest dollar rebound on Wednesday. The pair reached an intra-day high in NY afternoon before trading sideways.

Despite initial choppy trading in Asia, sterling took off after Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance said in a U.K. newspaper interview published on Wednesday that the central bank is close to holding back on its economic stimulus. Cable rallied to as high as high of 1.6309 in NY afternoon before stabilising.

Euro dipped briefly after German gross domestic product contracted by a record 5.0% last year, worse than forecasts for a 4.8% decline. However, the single currency rallied from there to a one-month high of 1.4580 in Europe mid-session before retreating to 1.4473 in NY afternoon. Despite intra-day volatility, euro managed to close up more than 0.15%. In other news, concerns about Greece's fiscal situation continued with U.S. ratings firm Moody's Investors Services saying that 2010 is likely to be challenging for European sovereign risk.

Data to be released on Thursday include Japan domestic CGPI, machine orders, Australia unemployment rate, Germany HICP final, EU ECB rate decision, U.S. Import price index, jobless claims, retail sales

Hong Kong Qindex 02:46 GMT January 14, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Buy EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The following is still valid. The market is going to consolidate within 1.4498 - 1.4586. It is likely that we have seen the low for today. The market is going to tackle the range 1.4603 - 1.4673. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to overcome the weekly cycle matrix system at 1.4578 - 1.4648 - 1.4853.



==============================================

01/13/2010 16:18:41 Qindex Hong Kong 2

Buy EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : The market is stable when it is above the daily cycle matrix system of 1.4438 - 1.4464 - 1.4476. It is basically trapped between two ranges of 1.4438 - 1.4464 - 1.4476 and 1.4578 - 1.4648 - 1.4853. The neutral zone is 1.4476 - 1.4578.


EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/euro.html

Syd 01:45 GMT January 14, 2010
DJ Japan Machinery Orders Hit By Strong JPY - Analyst
Reply   
Japan machinery makers clearly squeezed by JPY strength at end of last year, as reflected in 11.3% on-month fall in core orders in November, says Toshihiro Nagahama, senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute; "the yen strength in November and December last year had an adverse impact on sentiment in the manufacturing sector, which we can see in these figures." Note, USD/JPY hit 14-year low in late November. Says while shouldn't read too much about overall capex trends into monthly figures given data's volatility, any solid recovery in orders remains distant; notes "it's unlikely to come until we get a more sustainable recovery in business investment, which probably won't come until the second half of this year", given persistent deflation, need for firms to slim further amid uncertain business expectations

Syd 01:13 GMT January 14, 2010
RBA Rate Hike In Feb Now A Near Certainty - JPM
Reply   
"The (Australian) job market may not yet be back at full health, but it's not far off it," says CommSec Chief Economist Craig James after sharp rise in December employment. "In fact if policymakers and businesses are going to worry about anything in coming months it is that the job market is tightening too quickly. Full-employment is considered to be a situation where unemployment is around 5 per cent and that is certainly not far away." Says RBA still have plenty of work to do, likely to hike rates to 4.50% by end-1H.



RBA Rate Hike In Feb Now A Near Certainty - JPM
In immediate aftermath of robust November Australian jobs report, general consensus is a rate hike from RBA now a foregone conclusion. "We've seen about 140,000 jobs added in only four months, raising the expectations the unemployment rate has peaked," says JPMorgan economist Helen Kevans; adds "a February rate hike is now a near certainty." From a roughly 56% probability of a hike this morning, market now pricing in 70% chance of such a move. Still, adds she's somewhat surprised market wasn't "pricing in more", given earlier strong reading on retail sales, building approvals.

sofia kaprikorn 01:12 GMT January 14, 2010
bond market
Reply   
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-big-trade-2010-will-be-30-year-treasury-short

Syd 00:31 GMT January 14, 2010
Australia Dec Unemployment Rate 5.5%; Consensus 5.8%
Reply   
Australia Dec Employment +35,200; Consensus +10,000

Syd 00:30 GMT January 14, 2010
China's Chen: Stronger Yuan Won't Help World Economy - IHA
Reply   
Australia Dec Employment +35,200; Consensus +10,000

Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming said Thursday that neither an appreciation nor a depreciation of the Yuan would benefit the world economy in its recovery phase, the Ihlas News Agency, or IHA, reported. "The world economy is in a recovery process now. Appreciation or depreciation of the Yuan and instability would not be beneficial for the world," Chen said speaking at a news conference. He said his government wants the dollar to retain its value as China has invested large amounts in to U.S. securities.

Fitch: Economic Recovery Will Boost But Not Cure U.S. Corporate Credit Quality

Syd 00:07 GMT January 14, 2010
Japan Core Machinery Orders fell more than expected in November
Reply   
November Core Machinery Orders -11.3 % m/m (expectations +0.2 %) from – 4.5 % the previous month
November Core Machinery Orders -20.5 % y/y (expectations -10.2 %)

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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