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Forex Forum Archive for 01/15/2010

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


HK [email protected] 22:18 GMT January 15, 2010
K.I.S Aus/USD
Reply   


Only a convincing break(up or down) of the ascending triangle(mostly a continuation pattern) will confirm a trend.

A break below the ascending trendline of the triangle will open the way for more losses.

The two structures on the chart on which Tgt. computations were done, point to an initial reference targets 0f about 0.9550, where indeed 0.9700 is already on the menu.

GL/GT

GVI Forex Blog 21:46 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
The Canadian dollar retreated against the U.S. currency on Friday, pressured by lower commodity prices, as the greenback gained broadly on U.S. economic data.

Forex Market News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ sags as oil dips, greenback firms

GVI Forex Blog 20:55 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
The U.S. dollar gained against most major currencies on Friday, helped by U.S. reports indicating a rise in manufacturing alongside stable consumer price inflation, while pressure on the euro persisted over concerns about the Greek economy.

FOREX NEWS - Dollar rises broadly. Greece debt woes hurt euro

GVI Forex Blog 20:34 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
The second week of the New Year did not offer much in terms of breakouts from the recent consolidation ranges. Fundamentals reflect a slow recovery

Weekly Technical Update 1.15.2010 Broad Based Consolidation

GVI Forex Blog 19:58 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
21:00 GMT- Jan 15 (global-view.com) January can be the most difficult month of the year for forex traders. Most years dealers overload on positions at the end of the previous year and then have to dig themselves out of a hole for most of January.

The Daily Forex View- Weekly Edition- Difficult Markets

GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Weekly Edition- Difficult Markets

21:00 GMT- Jan 15 (global-view.com) January can be the most difficult month of the year for forex traders. Most years dealers overload on positions at the end of the previous year and then have to dig themselves out of a hole for most of January. This year it did not appear that dealers had overloaded positions

MORE...

Gen dk 19:52 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 18:41 GMT January 15, 2010
MLK holiday

GVI Forex john 16:27 GMT January 15, 2010
Monday : Reply
Yes U.S. is closed Monday as per our Calendar

LA LA 18:35 GMT January 15, 2010
MLK holiday
Reply   
Are the exchanges closed on Monday?

moscow mike 17:29 GMT January 15, 2010
GBPUSD

thanks Jay!

Planned the trade and traded the plan.

Happy weekend!

GVI Forex Jay 17:14 GMT January 15, 2010
GBPUSD

Mike, Well done.

moscow mike 17:09 GMT January 15, 2010
GBPUSD

moscow mike 10:40 GMT January 15, 2010
GBPUSD: Reply
Took profit on the allocation from 1.6295 at 1.6295 for +20.

Allocation from 1.6320 still running.
===========

Took 1/3 off the position @ 1.6220 for +100 pips. Stops at 1.6280 for rest.

GVI Forex Blog 16:52 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   

FX Briefing - No real alternatives to the dollar

GVI Forex Blog 16:32 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
As noted earlier today concerns over a potential debt crisis aided the USD and JPY currencies in the session as risk aversion sentiment continued to simmer.

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

GVI Forex john 16:27 GMT January 15, 2010
Monday

Yes U.S. is closed Monday as per our Calendar

BWvillage yuv 16:20 GMT January 15, 2010
Monday
Reply   
Is market closed in US on Monday ?

USA ZEUS 16:14 GMT January 15, 2010
USD

Taking gains here on EUR/USD 1.4370 & GBP/USD 1.6240

Structure has developed into sell on blips for bigger picture.
Will do so accordingly.
Cheers

GVI Forex Blog 16:01 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
Price action on USD/CAD, a daily chart of which is shown, has approached a strong support area in the 1.0200 price region, which represents the long-term 14-month low hit in October 2009.

Chart of the Day - 1/15/2010 – USD/CAD

Lahore FM 15:44 GMT January 15, 2010
Trade Ideas

01/14/2010 19:55:31 FM Lahore 7

usdcad
Entry: Target: Stop:
2nd long in now at 1.0235,stops 1.0170.
--
half out at 1.0293 and stops raised to entry on remainder.

USA ZEUS 15:31 GMT January 15, 2010
Zeus Hats Off!

lkwd jj 14:34 GMT January 15, 2010
I like that...Perhaps a Texas sized 10 gallon hat! ;-)

London HC 12:48 GMT January 15, 2010
Thanks!

USA ZEUS 15:27 GMT January 15, 2010
Zeus Hats Off!


London HC 12:44 GMT January 15, 2010
Zeus Hats Off!:
More of a euro sell off than dollar surge
____________________________________________________

Think this USD surge is what I was looking for in general.

GLGT!

USA ZEUS 15:22 GMT January 15, 2010
SP 500



oopsie

USA ZEUS 15:22 GMT January 15, 2010
SP 500
Reply   
Oopsie

GVI Forex Blog 15:08 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
Merkel rumours rile EUR Chinese reserves grow hugely JPY runs higher

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (15 January 2010)

tokyo ginko 14:55 GMT January 15, 2010
When the music stops, ensure you're not holding Gold Dust
Reply   
Good trade all on a Friday

GVI Forex Blog 14:37 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
I guess he was right – the market will be the arbiter of prices for the USDJPY exchange rate. It’s a good thing nobody listened to the New Japanese Finance Minister, Naoto Kan...

Kan you say 90.00 USDJPY?

lkwd jj 14:34 GMT January 15, 2010
Zeus Hats Off!

nice one on dollar surge. maybe call it cat in the hat trade!!

lkwd jj 14:33 GMT January 15, 2010
usdjpy
Reply   
lkwd jj 15:45 GMT January 14, 2010
usdjpy: Reply

Entry: 9119 Target: 9060 Stop: 9160

selling here as mkt cant stay above pivot level 9133 after big run up. was not in or else would've sold higher. long term trend prevailing .
---------------------------
been there done that.

U.K J.B 14:11 GMT January 15, 2010
euro.cad
Reply   
Bought 1.4740 Tar 1.60 stop 1.40 GT

GVI Forex john 13:58 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 14:15 GMT

Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization


Industrial Production is an index designed to measure changes in the level of output in the industrial sector of the economy. The index is grouped by both products (consumer goods, business equipment, intermediate goods, and materials) and industry (manufacturing, mining, and utilities). The data is produced by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

IMPACT: While the industrial sector of the economy represents only about 20 percent of GDP, because changes in GDP are heavily concentrated in the industrial sector changes in this index provide useful information on the current growth of GDP. The level of capacity utilization in the industrial sector provides information on the overall level of resource utilization in the economy which may in turn provide information on the likely future course of inflation.

GVI Forex Blog 13:50 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   

Concerns about Slowdown in Chinese Economy Boosts U.S. Dollar

GVI Forex Jay 13:45 GMT January 15, 2010
Note the post in this eur/usd thread:- just bounced from this level

GVI Forex Jay 10:27 GMT January 15, 2010

1.4357 (61.8% of 1.4219-1.4580)

GVI Forex john 13:44 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Empire PMI was a lot stronger than expected...Jan Mfg Index 15.92 Vs 4.50 In Dec.

GVI Forex john 13:42 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



CHART: U.S. CPI in line with expectations.

Lahore FM 13:40 GMT January 15, 2010
Trade Ideas

01/15/2010 07:54:25 FM Lahore 4
Lahore FM 20:52 GMT January 14, 2010
Trade Ideas: Reply
usdchf
Entry: 1.0186 Target: Stop: 1.0160

2nd long in now.
--
half closed at 1.0236 now.stops remains as before for rest 1/2.
--
rest of this additional long out at 1.0270 for 84+ pips in all.

nyc ws 13:22 GMT January 15, 2010
euro
Reply   
Given the price action market is not going to want to be long euros over the weekend.

London HC 12:48 GMT January 15, 2010
Zeus Hats Off!

but that was a timely call on the eur/usd

GVI Forex john 12:47 GMT January 15, 2010
Zeus Hats Off!

Wish I had pulled a trigger when I saw your post last night!!

USA ZEUS 12:46 GMT January 15, 2010
Zeus Hats Off!

GVI Forex john 12:22 GMT January 15, 2010

Thanks John! :-) GT!

Gen dk 12:45 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London HC 12:44 GMT January 15, 2010
Zeus Hats Off!

More of a euro sell off than dollar surge

PAR 12:30 GMT January 15, 2010
Bank Bonuses
Reply   
Huge bank bonuses are only a sympton of a much bigger problem ... Huge Bank Profits. Banks are making incomprehensible profits because they operate as oligarchs without that the free market competition can play any role.

Competition laws seem not to apply to banks , hence they can rob theyre clients like " Pirates of the Carribean" and this under the watchfull eye of Geithner and company.
Banks profits are someone else losses. Maybe Joe Sixpack and Monsieur Dupont.


Geithner s and Bernankes new defence is " Wir haben es nicht gewusst " , which imho is difficult to believe.?

GVI Forex john 12:22 GMT January 15, 2010
Zeus Hats Off!
Reply   
Nice call late yesterday!

USA ZEUS 22:35 GMT January 14, 2010
USD:
Something tells me that a short term USD surge is about to begin.

_________________________________________________
Take it to the house!

GVI Forex john 12:19 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @13:30 GMT

Consumer Price Index


The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as “core” inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.

Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.


Purchasing Managers Index – Empire State PMI

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indies are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.

GVI Forex john 11:39 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



CHART EZ- CPI (HICP) Expect headline CPI to rise in coming months due to base effects from a year ago

GVI Forex john 11:23 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Our Chart Points Table contains a lot of useful information. Our focus recently has been on the pivot points in the EURUSD. I use the pivot point as a sort of center of gravity as I start every day. So the EURUSD daily pivot is 1.4499 and now we are trading at 1.4382. This has been a major move. I then I scan the support (resistance) points. Today, local support is 1.4391 and then 1.4336. These might be most useful as potential take profit or stop levels. They also may be best used in conjunction with other numbers such as chart points, moving averages, etc.

London JP 11:21 GMT January 15, 2010
Music / Trader?

I enjoyed it :-)

GVI Forex Blog 11:17 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
Currencies: Concerns over a potential debt crisis aided the USD and JPY currencies in the session as risk aversion sentiment continued to simmer. A blunt acknowledgment from ECB's Trichet that Europe had a debt problem

European market Update: ECB Trichet speaks bluntly on European debt situation; Greek, Irish and Portuguese bond spreads continue to widen

GVI Forex john 11:10 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

The weekly Commitment of Traders report is released on the Friday close. The data is as of Tuesday, so it can be pretty old, but it gives a breakdown of positions by different classes of traders.

GVI Forex john 11:06 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Total open interest in the Euro FX futures contract INCREASED by 4646 on Thursday. It is not immediately obvious to me what traders were doing. My guess is that many might have been putting on longs on the strength of the EURUSD early in the day, but that is not obvious to me. Any other observations are welcomed. Total open interest now is 163,878.

Open interest is a useful statistic to follow as it can give you an idea of the relative exposure of the market to a future price move. Our best guess is that coming into today the market was long EURUSD. Keep in mind that this is just our best guess.

chennai neo 10:59 GMT January 15, 2010
buy :)
Reply   
Buy eur usd
Entry: 1.4387 Target: 1.4417 Stop: 1.4357

hope this works out.. cheers neo..

Gen dk 10:54 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

moscow mike 10:41 GMT January 15, 2010
GBPUSD

Correction - last allocation from 1.6320

moscow mike 10:40 GMT January 15, 2010
GBPUSD

Took profit on the allocation from 1.6295 at 1.6295 for +20.

Allocation from 1.6230 still running.

USA ZEUS 10:39 GMT January 15, 2010
USD/CAD

Closed 1/3 @ 1.0275 leaving the remaining @ b/e

USA ZEUS 10:36 GMT January 15, 2010
GBP/USD

Covered 1/4 @ 1.6274 and holding the remaining @ b/e.

GVI Forex Jay 10:27 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

The euro is the focus and getting hit both vs the dollar and on its crosses. So far the downside has paused around...

THREAD: EUR/USD UPDATED

GVI Forex john 10:22 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Pivot Points Based on Thursday closes...

Click for Complete Chart Points

1/14/2010

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

Res 3

1.4660

93.01

1.0296

1.6460

1.0389

Res 2

1.4607

92.52

1.0265

1.6404

1.0355

Res 1

1.4552

91.82

1.0224

1.6363

1.0293

P=(H+L+C)/3

1.4499

91.33

1.0193

1.6307

1.0259

Sup 1

1.4444

90.63

1.0152

1.6266

1.0197

Sup 2

1.4391

90.14

1.0121

1.6210

1.0163

Sup 3

1.4336

89.44

1.0080

1.6169

1.0101

 

EUR/GBP

EUR/JPY

EUR/CHF

AUD/USD

GBP/JPY

Res 3

0.8991

135.15

1.4856

0.9469

151.25

Res 2

0.8964

134.38

1.4834

0.9399

150.63

Res 1

0.8921

133.23

1.4799

0.9356

149.66

P=(H+L+C)/3

0.8894

132.46

1.4777

0.9286

149.04

Sup 1

0.8851

131.31

1.4742

0.9243

148.07

Sup 2

0.8824

130.54

1.4720

0.9173

147.45

Sup 3

0.8781

129.39

1.4685

0.9130

146.48

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA ZEUS 10:21 GMT January 15, 2010
GBP/USD

Covered 1/2 @ 1.6287 and holding the remaining @ b/e.

USA ZEUS 10:17 GMT January 15, 2010
EUR/USD

Covered another 1/3 @ 1.4396

GVI Forex Blog 10:12 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
11:00 GMT- Jan 15 (global-view.com) This has turned out to be a market without convictions. Those traders who are surviving have got to be quick on their feet to adjust to the winds of change that have been blowing in every few days. Keep a sharp eye on the crosses.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Euro on the Back Foot

GVI Forex john 10:08 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Euro on the Back Foot

11:00 GMT- Jan 15 (global-view.com) This has turned out to be a market without convictions. Those traders who are surviving have got to be quick on their feet to adjust to the winds of change that have been blowing in every few days. Keep a sharp eye on the crosses.

MORE...

GVI Forex Blog 10:05 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
The euro fell broadly on Friday, pressured as concerns about the struggling Greek economy highlighted weakness in the euro zone and bolstered expectations interest rates in the region will stay low for months.

FOREX NEWS-Euro falls broadly, stung by Greece, ECB view

Toronto EDP 09:58 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Strategies Forum

Check what out ? Looking forward to hearing more.

THREAD: NO NEGATIVE MONTH PERFORMANCE! UPDATED

London Misha 09:52 GMT January 15, 2010
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Bear Doji on the Daily Chart. Nearing Long MA support!
USDJPY - Outside Bear Day but not a Key Reversal Down or a Bearish Engulfing Pattern.
GBPUSD - Testing the 50% Fib of the Nov - Dec move!
USDCHF - Second Doji (at exactly the same level as the previous day's close!) on the Daily Chart!
EURGBP - Testing Long MA support!
EURJPY - Possible Bear Shooting Star on the Daily Chart.
USDCAD - Testing 2009 lows. Two Black Crows on the Daily Chart!
AUDUSD - Testing 2010 highs!
NZDUSD - Golden Crosses of the Short MA over both the Medium & Short/Medium MA's. Possible Bow Tie formation on the MA's as well!

Juffair KaL 09:33 GMT January 15, 2010
jpy crosses

euraud shorts
1.5602 1.5504
1.5603 1.5503
1.5628 1.5479
1.5653 1.5454
Thanks FM and cheers
I knew you guys would hate it
but hey...just like in trading i try to do my best

Lahore FM 09:26 GMT January 15, 2010
Music / Trader?

Yes Kal,could have been better than this but still traders are no singers!

cheers!

Juffair KaL 09:20 GMT January 15, 2010
jpy crosses
Reply   
cadjpy
Longs
89.2537 88.3076
89.2634 88.2981
89.5053 88.0594
89.7473 87.8219

nzdjpy longs
67.6379 66.8811
67.6456 66.8734
67.8392 66.6826
68.0328 66.4928

Juffair KaL 09:12 GMT January 15, 2010
usdjpy

eurcad shorts
1.4845 1.4747
1.4846 1.4746
1.4871 1.4722
1.4896 1.4697

audusd..longs
0.9316 0.9230
0.9317 0.9229
0.9338 0.9208
0.9360 0.9186

sofia kaprikorn 09:10 GMT January 15, 2010
55-dma cap



here is the 4-H gbp/usd chart with neat channel top now formed below the 55-day MA.

sofia kaprikorn 09:09 GMT January 15, 2010
55-dma cap
Reply   
4-h chart channel at this moment gives good reason to hold short while the channel top and current pattern holds. the 55-DMA at 1.6360 adds Resistance.

went short GBP/USD 1.6332 / SL not placed but most appropriate for this play is to be above the 1.64 recent high.

Juffair KaL 09:03 GMT January 15, 2010
usdjpy

chfjpy
longs
89.3709 88.6685
89.3781 88.6614
89.5576 88.4836
89.7372 88.3066
nzdusd..Longs
0.7417 0.7349
0.7418 0.7348
0.7435 0.7331
0.7453 0.7314

Juffair KaL 08:57 GMT January 15, 2010
Music / Trader?
Reply   
hmmm
I hate this video
Me playing accoustic with a Band in a bar here in town
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3iKkYD-uaAc
I hope you hate it too!!...lol

Lahore FM 08:25 GMT January 15, 2010
Trade Ideas

U.K J.B.thanx for asking,trading's been going fairly smooth and yes rumor factories working extra hours it looks.

best of trades to you J.B.

Juffair KaL 08:22 GMT January 15, 2010
usdjpy

eurgbp shorts
0.8856 0.8813
0.8856 0.8812
0.8867 0.8801
0.8878 0.8790


gbpchf longs
1.6748 1.6659
1.6749 1.6658
1.6772 1.6635
1.6794 1.6613
gl

GENEVA JFO 08:21 GMT January 15, 2010
buy on dips
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4392 Target: later Stop: no

It's friday !!

Juffair KaL 08:17 GMT January 15, 2010
usdjpy

longs
on eurjpy
133.0950 131.1471
133.1150 131.1274
133.6137 130.6379
134.1125 130.1521

U.K J.B 08:09 GMT January 15, 2010
Trade Ideas

Hi FM , Hows the trading ?? Rumours and comments playing around again this am, making it especially difficult to day trade. I hope all is well...

Juffair KaL 08:06 GMT January 15, 2010
usdjpy
Reply   
longs
on dips with 20 pips

moscow mike 08:02 GMT January 15, 2010
USDJPY
Reply   
Stopped on last usdjpy attempt for some net profits. Will reenter higher or lower when levels are reevaluated.

GT

Pretoria R 07:58 GMT January 15, 2010
New to FX trading
Reply   
Morning to all. i sould say dood day to all. i am new to forex trading and it is just a plesure to be part of this. hope i can learn a lot from the poeple that know a lot more. Tks for all the posts.

Lahore FM 07:54 GMT January 15, 2010
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 20:52 GMT January 14, 2010
Trade Ideas: Reply
usdchf
Entry: 1.0186 Target: Stop: 1.0160

2nd long in now.
--
half closed at 1.0236 now.stops remains as before for rest 1/2.

U.K J.B 07:46 GMT January 15, 2010
Euro/Usd

ath.xarian , some good comments there. I think that is why the markets at the moment are so undecided which way to turn. That's the beauty of the Forum- difference of opinion- which should be viewed constructively . I tend to find more value in the crosses at the moment. Nice talking with you and i wish you all the best for 2010...

Toronto MDunleavy 07:32 GMT January 15, 2010
Sell AUDUSD
Reply   


Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.9270 Target: 0.9130 Stop: 0.9370

AUDUSD Outlook
The AUDUSD continued its bullish momentum yesterday. However, as you can see on h4 chart below, price seems to have a good resistance around 0.9325 area, which is a potential top at this phase, a good place to short targeting 0.9170 with a tight stop loss above 0.9325 area. Break above 0.9325 area should trigger a significant bullish momentum targeting 0.9404 area.[Written by actionforex]
http://iticsoftware.com/postimages/2009-Jun-19/BJF-Trading-Group-AUDUSD_h430min_0115.xls

Ath. Xarian 07:14 GMT January 15, 2010
Euro/Usd

Yes I know your style J.B. and I like it a lot.Also I like Zeus style. I know it's a little bit early for the start of this years to find patterns and trends, but Usd has more reasons to be bought this year than Euro has.Trichet yesterday mentioned that will not change ECB policy cause of Greece's problem.I believe this is a lie from his part.If they let Greece to fall then all the Balcans will follow and will create a small domino effect in Europe.I would like also to add that China became the 1 in exports.It was expected to be happened some time and it's not a suprise at all.But, If you remember, when Euro/Usd was above 1,45 and 1,55 till the close to 1,60, Germany Fin Minister was supporting that Germany has no problem with the strong Euro (the rising oil was a factor to support of course cause of the inflation), and only the French Fin Minister was strongly opposite against that, because the French exports was hitting hard by the strong Euro.Now,Because of the fact that Germans are a little bit selfish (lol), they are understanding that a strong Euro is hitting their exports and they lost the 1 position globally.It is the first time since Merkel said that Euro will face problems in the future.That means that they want it to go down.Greece is a factor and they are using it by saying for the time being that will not finance the debt.And now, this morning a rumor is spreading that Merkel will step down.Europe is forced to do everything is in it's hand to let the Euro drop and a fight with the FED has just started on the rates.US and Europe want their currencies soft for the same reasons.We will see in 2 months a clear picture on this issue.Wish you all the best and profitable trades J.B.

Syd 07:01 GMT January 15, 2010
DJ MONEY TALKS: RBA Not Ready To Holster Rates Gun Yet
Reply   
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Interest rates in Australia may have been raised back to within what some policy makers have described as a "normal range," but don't mistake that as a signal the central bank has become hesitant about hiking further. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain aggressive in early 2010, setting policy for an economy that is rapidly gathering momentum and readying for an inflation challenge that now sits on the 12 to 18 month horizon. An unprecedented fourth-straight rate hike at the RBA's first policy meeting for 2010 on February 2 looks to be virtually locked in. Only a very benign fourth quarter inflation outcome on January 27 would derail it now. Even then, it would just delay the inevitable for the RBA which knows there is a growing risk the economy will exceed its already optimistic expectations in 2010, forcing restrictive monetary policy by year end. The RBA expects the economy to grow 3.25% in 2010, which is around its long-term average rate; that would be up from 1.75% in 2009. While the 30-day interbank futures market is showing a 70% probability of a February hike, there have been some lingering doubts about a rate rise, given RBA Deputy Governor Ric Battellino said in December that with the cash rate at 3.75%, "monetary policy is now back in the normal range." That's led some traders and economists to say the RBA has time on its hands and will slow the pace of hikes early in 2010. But the comments were almost certainly overplayed. Battellino likely meant to indicate some normality has been restored but the job is not yet completed, as overall monetary conditions remain accommodative.
An initial cash rate target is still likely somewhere around 4.25%, which marks the low point of the previous easing cycle. The RBA raised rates in October, November and December, making it one of the most aggressive central banks in the world and the only one in the Group of 20 nations to be hiking. The data flow since Battellino spoke has been strong and the RBA likely feels the economy is already outperforming the expectations it had as recently as December.
Data Thursday showed unemployment fell to 5.5% in December from 5.6% in November, the fourth-straight month of strong employment gains. Unemployment looks to have peaked, and spare capacity in the labor market will be eaten up quickly if current trends persist. As the growth engines of Australia's commodity-rich economy rev (building, consumption, investment, mining) the prospect of a skilled labor shortage in 2010-11 is real. As of the third quarter of 2009, core inflation was an uncomfortably high 3.5%. It is likely to have dropped in the fourth quarter, but not substantially RBA Governor Glenn Stevens also won't shy away from further near-term hikes simply because other central banks are being laggards. Local conditions will dictate the RBA's decision making.

Syd 06:57 GMT January 15, 2010
Expect the Canadian dollar to stay around the parity level against US dollar and then weaken towards
Reply   
LINK

AIG: Who's To Blame?
LINK

Australia Must Cut Foreign Investor Taxes, Group Says
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Australia should reduce regulations and ease taxes on overseas investors and financial institutions to facilitate the nation’s efforts to become a global financial hub, a government-sponsored panel has said.The report aims to boost Australia’s A$1.3 trillion ($1.2 trillion) managed funds industry and enable it to take advantage of its position in the world’s fastest growing region. LINK

U.K J.B 06:56 GMT January 15, 2010
Euro/Usd

ath.xarian

Thanks for your comments and your post. I have mentioned this 200 ma a few times re euro/dolls. I still think we are in " no mans land " at the moment so a nice steady market to trade these ranges. I dont day trade but when i see a opportunity to average a trade i will do so if the technicals support this. Dolls/chf was the case this morning. I have nice short term res at 1.0250 area having bought 1.0140 recently which i posted, but still trading from a long position. The Merkel resignation rumour again provides opportunties with a number of stops going through first thing this morning. GT/GL

Ath. Xarian 06:46 GMT January 15, 2010
Euro/Usd
Reply   


Good Morning everyone. U.K. J.B. good to see you back again.Your comments are always useful and your trades recommendations pretty are precious!
Geneva I agree on your view and it's good that you remember Oil Man on this. I haven't see post of his for some time now.He was a good member!

Anyway.This is how I see forming the Euro/Usd on the daily chart.I think that the 200 MA is the key for a fall below, but will meet many bounces,stop hunting etc till then and after the fall.

Any comments are pretty much welcome!

U.K J.B 06:36 GMT January 15, 2010
dolls/chf
Reply   
Short dolls/chf 1.0240 , for a day trade...

Syd 06:31 GMT January 15, 2010
Market rumours about Merkel’s resignation are completely without foundation -German govt spokesman
Reply   
For Germany's Merkel, a Terrible Start to the Year
LINK


UK banks face $10bn bill from US over bailouts
LINK

GENEVA DS 06:29 GMT January 15, 2010
SPECIAL FEELING
Reply   
I have this special feeling once again, that really tooooo many people (as well in this forum, I guess...) are long USD for the wrong reasons... my take is, that we are still dead ahead of a huge ,,,flat,,, trading pattern and eventually one enormous big spike down for USD agst some currencies ?? The USD will fall most agst XAG and XAU... probably the fall of USD will take EURO for sure with it down... I keep and add some XAG long agst EUR... it worked fine so far this year... have fun .... and one story reminds me of 18 month ago... everybody in this forum (one exeption...MONACO OIL MAN:::) was trying to buy USD-CAD from 1.0800.... till 0.9050... nobody will admit now probably... but everyday we heard buy more and buy more.... probably the same is happening now... it does not really look good... hopefully it will turn soon... good day to all

Amman wfakhoury 06:19 GMT January 15, 2010
gbpusd series
Reply   
caution advised not to sell the gbpusd as still in uptrend mood.

Juffair KaL 06:12 GMT January 15, 2010
who says the usd is not a buy?
Reply   
Longer term
usdcad heading to 1.40
eurusd 1.50 to 1.20
some delay in usdjpy
usdchf to 1.28
next 2-5 years tgt

moscow mike 03:55 GMT January 15, 2010
USDJPY
Reply   
moscow mike 03:39 GMT January 15, 2010* - correction
avg usdjpy longs - 91.17

moscow mike 03:42 GMT January 15, 2010
GBPUSD
Reply   
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

moscow mike 17:05 GMT January 13, 2010
GBPUSD: Reply
Going short at 1.6295, stops at 1.6370.
Some serious resistance comes at 1.6300/70 zone.
Have MM room to fade higher before stop hits.
==========

Added here another allocation @ 1.6320, stops remain.

moscow mike 03:39 GMT January 15, 2010
USDJPY
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

moscow mike 14:05 GMT January 14, 2010
USDJPY: Reply
Rest 2/3 of usdjpy longs stopped for profit at 91.20 for +40.

Reentry here 1/2 @ 91.25, stops later.
===========
Adding another half @ 91.10. Avg - 91.12, stops 90.80

GVI Forex Blog 03:35 GMT January 15, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 15-Jan-2010 - 0333 GMT

sofia kaprikorn 03:17 GMT January 15, 2010
1.6242 daily pivot

sofia kaprikorn 09:59 GMT January 14, 2010
1.6242 daily pivot: Reply
new short GBP/USD 1.6290 / SL 1.6318
----
added 1/2 at 1.6276 // avg 1.6283 - SL 1.6318
.....................................
position got stopped at 1.6318

dc CB 03:04 GMT January 15, 2010
USD

first real snow around these part is years. fluffy too.

You seem to be nailing them in the New Year
Cheers

USA ZEUS 02:47 GMT January 15, 2010
USD



Deep diving Delta StopOuts

USA ZEUS 02:46 GMT January 15, 2010
USD

dc CB 02:36 GMT January 15, 2010

Thx for the info CB. Nice to see you back here after your winter time snow fun.

dc CB 02:36 GMT January 15, 2010
USD

Fri, Jan 15 2010, 02:15 GMT
http://www.forexlive.com

Now hearing that Model Funds were liquidating long Euro positions

They sold Euros against everything. EUR/JPY from 131.70 down to 131.25 EUR/GBP from 0.8862 down to 0.8850

USA ZEUS 02:29 GMT January 15, 2010
EUR/USD

Covered 1/3 @ 1.4411 for + 109

HK [email protected] 02:24 GMT January 15, 2010
USD

No wonder! After those banks and GREAT advisers pushed the people yesterday with their recommendations to sell the USD against everything, and screw them all after:)

USA ZEUS 02:12 GMT January 15, 2010
USD



EUR/USD Delta Crush!

USA ZEUS 01:58 GMT January 15, 2010
USD

USA ZEUS 22:35 GMT January 14, 2010
USD:
Something tells me that a short term USD surge is about to begin.

________________________________________________________

Take it to the house!

jkt-aye 01:54 GMT January 15, 2010
confused
Reply   
is today "Sell On Blip usd" day ?

Hong Kong 01:47 GMT January 15, 2010
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
Market Review - 14/01/2010 21:26 All times in GMT

Dollar falls versus yen after weak U.S. retail sales

The greenback dropped against the yen after the release of weaker-than-expected December U.S. retail sales and other data heightened market's expectation that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the foreseeable future. However, the U.S. currency held gains against euro after the European Central Bank kept its rate policy unchanged and President Trichet reiterated the importance of a strong dollar.

ECB left key benchmark rate unchanged as expected at its record low of 1%. Euro remained under pressure throughout European session as broad-based selling which started just before European opening from 1.4557 downwards had pushed price lower. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet suggested the bank's benchmark interest rate will be on hold for some time. He also stated that the economic outlook in the eurozone remains uncertain and recovery will likely be uneven. The single currency hit intra-day low of 1.4445 in NY mid-session but rebounded after release of the weaker-than-expected U.S. data. Euro ended the day down just 0.06%.

Japanese finance minister Kan said that exchange rates should be set by markets unless they move rapidly. The dollar rose against the yen on his comments and briefly climbed to 92.05 in European morning. However, the pair fell sharply after that and the fall picked up momentum after U.S. retails sales posted a drop in December. Core retail sales decreased by 0.2% in December (forecast was an increase of 0.3%) after an upwardly revised 1.9% in November. The dollar weaken to intra-day low of 90.84 in NY afternoon before stabilizing.

Despite falling to 1.6249 in European morning, cable rebounded strongly on active cross buying in sterling (eur/gbp tumbled from 0.8937 to 0.8867) after ECB kept its rate unchanged. The British pound later rose to 1.6347 in NY afternoon before trading sideways.

Data to be released to Friday include Swiss combined PPI, EU HICP final, trade balance, U.S. CPI, capacity utilisation, industrial production.

lkwd jj 01:45 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

my broker(gee eff tee)did that a few weeks back based on this forthcoming.legislation

GVI Forex 01:43 GMT January 15, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

This is very serious and a proposal that could make life difficult for retail forex trading. Please read and then send in youi comments to the CFTC.

GVI Forex john 19:33 GMT January 14, 2010

Syd 00:07 GMT January 15, 2010
Nikkei opens at its highest level in 15 months
Reply   
Nikkei opens at its highest level in 15 months

Nikkei 225 opens the final trading session of the week at 10,917-41 (+ 0.09 %)

 




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