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Forex Forum Archive for 01/17/2010

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Syd 23:41 GMT January 17, 2010
DJ Australian TD-MI Inflation Gauge Rises 0.3% In Dec Vs Nov
Australian inflation pressures continued to increase during December, the second consecutive month consumer prices have risen, indicating a long period of disinflation has ended, according to the TD Securities-Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge issued Monday. Official consumer price numbers are due Jan. 27, which some economists say will make or break the case for the RBA to again tighten policy at its February meeting in an effort to curb any sustained period of price hikes.

dc CB 23:35 GMT January 17, 2010

via BigPicture

dc CB 23:34 GMT January 17, 2010

just the dice

Syd 22:39 GMT January 17, 2010
DJ AUD May Test Downside In Short Term - Dealer
AUD/USD looks to have run into firm resistance around 0.9330 area, with support at 0.9150, and risk is pair slips further, says a Sydney based dealer at global investment bank. "Until we clearly take out 0.9330, I guess more downside tests are likely in the short term." Pair last 0.9218. Little in way of domestic data to guide market week ahead, market waiting on TD Securities inflation gauge due 2330 GMT.

Syd 21:58 GMT January 17, 2010
AUD Could Trade Heavy Vs USD, JPY - NAB
Given dip in risk appetite on back of ongoing jitters surrounding Greece's fiscal position, AUD might trade lower against USD and JPY but pairs should find support later in week when Chinese data expected to underscore recovery theme, says NAB FX Head Strategist John Kyriakopoulos. "China's key economic reports on Thursday should be very strong and potentially help convince investors that its monetary policy tightening was aimed at a sustainable recovery rather than slowing growth abruptly." Notes dealers paring bets on Fed rate hikes while RBA should move another 25 bps in February. Pegs AUD/USD support at 0.9170, sellers at 0.9320, last 0.9205. AUD/JPY last 83.57.

Syd 21:41 GMT January 17, 2010
NZ median house prices +9.6% YoY
House prices in New Zealand have risen by 1.4% in the last month and by almost 10% in the last year.

Tonbridge AL 20:45 GMT January 17, 2010
Click on the Friday's link on the video homepage for each video to view next week's setup.


GVI Forex Blog 20:43 GMT January 17, 2010 Reply   
The US dollar held up well amid a generally risk averse Friday sessions, despite US economic data generally improved and close to expectations.

Forex Research - Morning Report

Syd 20:41 GMT January 17, 2010
EUR/USD Under Pressure On Greece Jitters - BNZ
EUR/USD losing some ground early in NZ, pair last 1.4351 vs 1.4376 Late Friday in New York. Bank of NZ Forex Strategist Danica Hampton says market slightly jittery after article over weekend "raised issues about Greece again. It is pretty much about the legal and political hurdles faced by that economy and that has grabbed a bit of attention first up this morning." Tips support to hold at 1.4335 "and if it breaks through then we are really looking at 1.4280." On top side says it will struggle towards 1.4380-1.4400 today.

Syd 19:56 GMT January 17, 2010
Ernst & Young: Britain must export or die
One of the UK's leading economic forecasters will tomorrow predict that the recession in Britain ended in the fourth quarter of last year, but will warn of anaemic growth in 2010. link
Interest rates: the lower the better
Sterling could collapse while our MPs are still pussyfooting around
Goldman Sachs to reward UK bankers with 81 per cent rise in bonuses and pay - netting its top brass eight-figure payouts

empoli (Italy) ab 19:54 GMT January 17, 2010
eur usd opening
It seems to me that sl hunters are in, think 200 dma eurusd will be tested soon.

PAR 19:20 GMT January 17, 2010
Euro Break Uo

Crucially, he argues that eurozone exit entails expulsion from the European Union as well. All EU members must take part in EMU (except Britain and Denmark, with opt-outs).

This is a warning shot for Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain. If they fail to marshal public support for draconian austerity, they risk being cast into Icelandic oblivion. Or for Greece, back into the clammy embrace of Asia Minor.

ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet upped the ante, warning that the bank would not bend its collateral rules to support Greek debt. “No state can expect any special treatment,” he said. He might as well daub a death’s cross on the door of Greece’s debt management office.

sofia kaprikorn 19:15 GMT January 17, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Dr. Q - if you allow the question, I have seen the system explanation on your site, however just for simplicity I wondered if it measures the distribution and giving higher readings to levels that price spends most of the time that then they become barrier level. I assume it might be similar to Market Profile where you see the time and price relationship to see areas where most of the distribution process takes place and the tails where the price just overextended.

Munich peter 19:11 GMT January 17, 2010
Euro Break Up

Guess 200 dma will hold after initial noise. Greece will brake away from euro like California from USA. In Greece too many interested in filling their pockets with EU money and EU will want to avoid domino effect at any price. So something will be worked out behind the scenes and we will only get to see the smokescreen. GL GT

empoli (Italy) ab 18:48 GMT January 17, 2010
Euro Break Up

Thks Peter for ur reply, yes mr Trichet's answer to ur question during conf press were asa usual very "diplomatic". Think anyway Greece situation far from being solved and this cud be dangerous for Euro. What s ur idea abt the test of the 200 dma level which, till now, pushed away our coin from fall again? will it resist once more or do it capitulate opening a new scenario in Eur Usd? (mean 1,35-1,40 area)
tia for ur kind reply (im squared now waiting for fe open tonite after being short on fiday and having took profits but wud like to sell again...)

Munich peter 18:37 GMT January 17, 2010
Euro Break Up

ab Empoli, don't worry. Now that it is established that Merkel won't resign, dollarbulls are bringing the Greece theme back in.
Note Trichet's reply hereunder.

Transcript of the questions asked and the answers given by Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB, and Lucas Papademos, Vice-President of the ECB
Question: How concerned are you at the ECB about the deterioration of some sovereign debt situations, most notably, but not exclusively, in Greece?

And my second question, I almost hesitate to ask, but many American and English bank market watchers keep putting this across to us: how realistic do you see this talk about Greece or possibly other countries either being pushed out of, or leaving, the euro? As I said, it has been put to us time and time again. It sounds very unrealistic, but how do you view this?

Trichet: Let me take your second question first. I do not comment myself on absurd hypotheses, so that would be my response. That being said, there is a lot of hard work to do, and you can see the extent to which the Governing Council has been stressing the necessity to have appropriate measures and appropriate implementation of the measures as regards fiscal policy. This is key for all countries. Our message is for all members of the euro area. It is very important for those of them which have a special deterioration to redress the situation in taking the appropriate bold and courageous measures for their own prosperity and recovery. We trust that this is essential to improve confidence, and you know the extent to which we consider that confidence is key in the present economic situation in Europe as well as in the world.
ote Trichet's reply hereunder.

empoli (Italy) ab 18:21 GMT January 17, 2010
Euro Break Up

hi PAR where did u hear it? is it on some newspaper came out in the w/e in Europe? as in this case believe Euro wud be fired at opening later. tia for reply

PAR 18:00 GMT January 17, 2010
Euro Break Up
ECB prepares legal ground for euro rupture as Greek crisis escalates
Fears of a euro break-up have reached the point where the European Central Bank feels compelled to issue a legal analysis of what would happen if a country tried to leave monetary union.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:11 GMT January 17, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : Critical Resistance 1.6569

The monthly cycle charts indicate that the market has a tendency to trade within 1.6067 and 1.6569. The daily cycle matrix system at 1.6358 - 1.6375 - 1.6483 would serve as short term resistant ranges. It is likely that the market will consolidate further within the weekly cycle matrix system at 1.5993 - 1.6075 - 1.6333. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.

GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 14:56 GMT January 17, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Critical Support 1.4295

As shown in the distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart the market has a tendency to head for 1.3846. However the odds are still in favor of maintaining a long position since the market was able to close above 1.4353 in the last New York session. A projected supporting point is positioning at 1.4295. The market is stable when it is
above the daily cycle matrix system at 1.4437 - 1.4468 - 1.4523.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex 12:37 GMT January 17, 2010
Proposed CFTC Regulations
Please read the new proposed CFTC regulations that would impact retail forex trading in the U.S. Post your comments and questions, and then send in your comments to the CFTC. It is important for you to make your feelings known during the 60 day comment period.

Proposed CFTC Regulations

Hong Kong Qindex 09:59 GMT January 17, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Hang Seng Index
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hang Seng Index : Critical Support 21185

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is bias on the downside when it is below 22586. The distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart suggests that the market has potential to head for 20645. The daily cycle matrix system indicates that the market is under pressure when it is below 21500 - 21770 - 21998. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.

Hang Seng Index : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 01:20 GMT January 17, 2010
The UK Independence Party is to launch a controversial bid to woo voters by unveiling a policy to ba
UKIP vows to ban the burka to win over working class voters


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