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Forex Forum Archive for 01/18/2010

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HK [email protected] 23:32 GMT January 18, 2010
Just not long time ago it was a popular view that the EURO will replace the USD as the world reserve currency.

And so fast has it evaporated.

sofia kaprikorn 22:50 GMT January 18, 2010
thin market probing

bobl - here's a USD/CAD daily chart - I wrote in that file I compiled hat I see it breaking off the 1.04-1.07 range and trending down to 1.02 and then will see if it breaks further down..

here the channel is just supplemented by a simple 13-day MA to show the clear trend mode on this particular timeframe.

sofia kaprikorn 22:24 GMT January 18, 2010
thin market probing

tnx for your attention!

rule set - yes I develop my method by constantly adjusting the faults and taking advantage of what I learn from traders with track records like you - the progress right now can't be summed up on the back of a napkin as Bill Dunn says but I'm doing my best to refine and simplify. I must admit I borrow some ideas from you as well!
The Pound Sterling - Weekly chart shows 1.5850-1.6750 range trading. The 89-Week MA at 1.6492 beckons.
Daily chart shows uptrend and we broke recent 1.6250 high so now focus is on the 1.64 high.

Euro however is really bad looking as the EUR/GBP broke the 200-day MA which is quite significant as it is the 4-th attempt and I remember VERY clear that WD Gann wrote if a level is probed 3 times it might bounce but the 4-th it will break. EUR/JPY is also bearish as it dropped below the tight cluster of all significant MAs from 13 - 21 to 89 to 200... nothing to note until 127.50-128
The Clear line in the sand for EURO is 200DMA at 1.4276 and until then we might get a bounce.
hese are just testing waters in thin market - but thanks for asking and for your attention!

lkwd jj 21:35 GMT January 18, 2010
as many have noticed , outside day reversal on friday. doesnt todays higher high void fridays activity?

Syd 20:42 GMT January 18, 2010
Indicators point to rates going up again

San Diego bobl 19:45 GMT January 18, 2010
thin market probing

Gold and usd/cad......... far it has paid off on the hold mentioned Friday of USD/CAD hold.........personally lower stops to lock in gains.

The chart of day, GOLD........shows commercials short which is very normal in both gold and silver..........commercials hedge their mining operations. But this large of a disparity has to give some pause. I've been long gold for years as is well known here, but feel it prudent to establish a sell level on half my half my postion in the event, like usd/cad, of getting to reload at better levels.


San Diego bobl 19:38 GMT January 18, 2010
thin market probing

Sofia, you might want to look at your daily and weekly charts.

Also, what kind of read are you making when the hourly chart shows selling here or a little higher.

Have you established a method ........ a rule set, for your trading? I can't tell if you are looking to buy price movement or fade it. Just a thought.


GVI Forex Blog 18:40 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
G7 finance ministers remain tough on Greek U.S. liquidity dry for holiday Hatoyama in funds scandal ECB removes some accommodation

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (18 January 2010)

sofia kaprikorn 17:24 GMT January 18, 2010
thin market probing

long GBP/USD 1.6337 / SL 1.6313

GVI Forex Blog 17:12 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
Price action on spot gold, a daily chart of which is shown, has formed a potentially bullish pennant consolidation pattern within the context of its rebound off December lows.

Chart of the Day - 1/18/2010 – GOLD

sofia kaprikorn 17:11 GMT January 18, 2010
thin market probing
long EUR/USD 1.4388 / SL 1.4366

PAR 17:01 GMT January 18, 2010
Euro aiming for stops above 1.4425 and 1.4450 . Probably will be hit in thin markets.

GVI Forex Blog 16:18 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
The GBP/USD was at resistance and showed its first sign of reversal at the end of last week. To start this week, the market showed more signs of reversal.

Daily Technical Update GBP/USD Reversal Signal; Risk Assessment

Juffair KaL 16:10 GMT January 18, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Nice Call Dr.Q

Hong Kong Qindex 16:01 GMT January 18, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/JPY : Critical Support 90.04

The critical range of the monthly cycle charts is 90.04 - 90.40. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the bias is on the downside when the market is below 90.33. The market is under pressure when it is trading below the monthly cycle pivot centers at 91.80 - 91.81 - 91.91. The market is now consolidating within the daily cycle matrix system at 90.30 - 90.89 - 91.19 for the time being.

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex john 15:41 GMT January 18, 2010
August- you can ask here or email me-

[email protected]

NYC JM 15:03 GMT January 18, 2010
JP, the US has political union. The Euro zone is an experiment, monetary union without political union. The latter is its Achilles Heel.

Mtl JP 14:48 GMT January 18, 2010
that is simplistic north-american myopic cynicism.

why would California, Illinois and New Jersey deficits not bring about the breakup of the Union... or the USD ?

GVI Forex Blog 14:28 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
“Politically, though, this unity also has the potential of bringing about explosive disunity...

Can you say Drachma?

Viet Nam Forex Begin 14:25 GMT January 18, 2010
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Entry: 1.6309 Target: 1.6279 Stop: 1.6339

Monday, 18 January 2010 14:24 GMT

Free Signals for afternoon today

Jogjakarta August 14:05 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

halo Jay+ and GVI team....I am really need help to explain and give detail about market tracker at Live Rates &...

THREAD: Qusetion to GVI or Mr Jay UPDATED

Medan Ardent 13:59 GMT January 18, 2010
ArdFx System

Sell cable
Entry: 1.6342 Target: later Stop: LATER

Entry using my system

Juffair KaL 13:55 GMT January 18, 2010
audusd a sell

audcad a good sell with spikes
selling till .9550

Juffair KaL 13:45 GMT January 18, 2010
audusd a sell

so is nzdusd
selling around here

Juffair KaL 13:43 GMT January 18, 2010
audusd a sell

a sell soon
check the chart for ranges of the top 2 lines

GVI Forex john 13:20 GMT January 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

The COT report released late Friday showed that as of Tuesday last week that the markets had been selling USD. We had picked up the USD (vs Euro) futures selling early last week in our daily open interest reports, but then we got a little confused on Wednesday and Thursday when open interest was still increasing.

It appear that traders got back in synch with the price action on Friday when total open interest fell by 3063. We figure by the end of the week that traders were finally unwinding USD shorts taken earlier i the week. Bottom-line. its our view that futures markets are still short the USD, but now less so.

PAR 12:37 GMT January 18, 2010
The Times January 18, 2010

A Greek crisis may well become Germany’s problem Bronwen Maddox: Economic View

This week the European Commission begins studying Greece’s latest plan for extracting itself from its financial crisis. But although the deployment of the Brussels machinery has taken the edge off the drama, any sense that the problem is now contained would be an illusion. The possibility that a country within the eurozone will get to the brink of defaulting on its sovereign debt remains real.

The new Greek Government’s plan remains incredible, based on a cut in the budget deficit from nearly 13 per cent to under 3 per cent in three years. That implies that Greece would, in one coherent sweep, push through profound reforms of the public and private sectors that it has not yet been able to tackle.

GVI Forex Blog 12:33 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
12:00 GMT- Jan 18 ( In spite of the U.S. holiday today, forex markets are fairly active. No major data have been released. The focus remains on the Greek financial issues, but talk about a departure of Greece from the euro is probably overdone and very unlikely.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- N.Y. Holiday Session

GVI Forex john 12:29 GMT January 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

The Daily Forex View

N.Y. Holiday Session

12:00 GMT- Jan 18 ( In spite of the U.S. holiday today, forex markets are fairly active. No major data have been released. The focus remains on the Greek financial issues, but talk about a departure of Greece from the euro is probably overdone and very unlikely.


GVI Forex Blog 12:15 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
After the worst global recession since the end of the Second World War last year, the world economy is set to recover in 2010. What do consensus forecasts suggest for the economic recovery in the year ahead?

Economics Weekly - A year of economic recovery, but potential market volatility -- Weekly economic data preview - UK MPC minutes to shed light on divergent views?

Antartic E.C. 12:01 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

Yeah I don’t use mt4 either, I don’t think its trustworthy… well I trade with censored and since they own they...

THREAD: Trading Platforms UPDATED

GVI Forex Blog 11:59 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 18-Jan-2010 - 1156 GMT

GVI Forex Blog 11:46 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
Traders are looking forward to the publication tomorrow (January 19), of the Bank of Canada, regarding short term interest rate.

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/01/2010

Antartic E.C. 11:46 GMT January 18, 2010

Well today there is not going to be much activity given that its martin luther day in the US, is Eur gonna give a good rally today? I didn’t do well against gbp…

GVI Forex Blog 11:25 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
In equities: European equity markets have opened the week on a positive footing. Equity rotation shook off a mixed picture in Asia and a disappointing trading session last Friday following

European Market Update: US holiday fails to dampen volumes in mixed global session

GVI Forex Blog 11:21 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
The euro hit a four-month low against a broadly firmer pound on Monday, under pressure in subdued trade with U.S. markets closed for a holiday.

FOREX NEWS-Euro under pressure, sterling gains in thin trade

London Misha 11:07 GMT January 18, 2010
EURUSD - Nearing Long MA support!
GBPUSD - Key Reversal Down on the Daily Chart! Nearing Long MA support!
EURGBP - Closed right on the Long MA on Friday!
EURJPY - Key Reversal Down on the Weekly Chart!
USDCAD - Testing the 2009 low support! Doji on the Weekly Chart.
AUDUSD - Testing the 2010 high resistance! Possible Tweezer Top on the Daily Chart!
NZDUSD - Golden Crosses of the Short MA over the Medium & also the Short/Medium MA's. Possible Bow Tie formation!

Syd 11:02 GMT January 18, 2010
Sizable Shift In CHF Positioning - BarCap
The Swiss franc underwent the biggest change in G10 FX positioning as of last Tuesday according to the latest IMM data notes Barclays Capital. Positioning went from a small 2.8k net shorts to a sizable 13.9k of longs. This shift, along with evidence from the bank's fair value model that EUR/CHF remains extremely undervalued suggests that if the SNB did intervene, it could potentially generate a large move in the franc. EUR/CHF now trades at 1.4749, USD/CHF at 1.0255.

PAR 10:58 GMT January 18, 2010
Looks like general dollar weakness to continue this week . Sell dollar and buy commodities and stocks.

hk ooozmeeh 10:57 GMT January 18, 2010
GBPUSD Behavioral range

...applying short term technicals...still very much valid

hk ooozmeeh 16:44 GMT January 12, 2010
GBPUSD : Reply

GBPUSD Three Trading Ranges within a bigger sideway congestion This 8-month congestion since June 2009 is very much valid, as seen on this weekly chart,,1.6190 - 1.6200 is a level to watch. 20-EMA wkly chart 1-6225 critical.. fwiw

Gen dk 10:33 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 09:57 GMT January 18, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/JPY : The market is going to consolidate within the daily cycle matrix system at 90.30 - 91.19 - 90.89 for the time being.

Juffair KaL 09:32 GMT January 18, 2010
europe session

short cable and added for another 2-3 hrs
1.6200 tgt

shorts audjpy here

GVI Forex Blog 09:13 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
Stocks finished last week on a sour note as both the European and U.S sessions ended Friday considerably lower.

Stocks Finish the Week Sour

GVI Forex Blog 09:12 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   
The EUR shares a commonality with the Greenback. Together they form the most traded currency pair of all the pairs available to trade.

The EUR, are you confused?

Viet Nam Forex Begin 09:03 GMT January 18, 2010
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Entry: 1.6330 Target: 1.6360 Stop: 1.6300

Monday, 18 January 2010 09:02 GMT

Happy trading on the first day of week.

Continue the up trend at the end on Friday, GU-EU-AU are moving up strongly.

And i believe that they will not change until the US market opens

Free Signals for morning today

Hong Kong Qindex 08:52 GMT January 18, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/CHF : Critical Support 1.4634

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the bias is on the downside when the market is below 1.4825. The weekly cycle pivot centers are positioning at 1.4689 - 1.4734 - 1.4777. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below the weekly cycle pivot center at 1.4689. A projected supporting range is expected at 1.4634 - 1.4659.

EUR/CHF : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 07:14 GMT January 18, 2010
Sakakibara Says Slower U.S. Recovery May Hurt Dollar
Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said the global economic recovery may slow in the second quarter, pushing Japan into a double-dip recession and weakening the dollar to 85 yen.

“Should the U.S. experience a relatively weak rebound from spring to summer there’s a high possibility the dollar will drop,” said Sakakibara in a Jan. 15

Juffair KaL 07:11 GMT January 18, 2010
europe session

cable 1.6352 seems done there

Juffair KaL 07:08 GMT January 18, 2010
europe session

shorts at .9250
tgt .9140
nzdusd shorts at .7389 to .7400
tgt .7341

Auckland peat 07:04 GMT January 18, 2010
NZ median house prices +9.6% YoY

Lots of immigrants, a real slowdown in construction activity (residential), land supply issues around the major centres, not many people losing their jobs in actual fact, historically very low interest rates , and the love affair that Kiwis have with owning their own home and it all adds up to a rising floor for prices. Some other measures havent been so sanguine and volume is low almost non-existent at the upper values but theres no doubt housing prices have held up.

Juffair KaL 07:02 GMT January 18, 2010

1.0320 might drop again to 1.020
longer term a buy though

Juffair KaL 06:59 GMT January 18, 2010
europe session
seems they wanna sell eurusd at 1.44 area
tgt 1.4320
eurgbp at 88.40

Syd 06:36 GMT January 18, 2010
More Evidence Of Terror Danger Than US Govt Admits - NYT
WASHINGTON (AFP)--Top U.S. national security officials failed to fully appreciate mounting evidence that Al Qaeda might be preparing a new attack on the United States and of the dangers posed by extremists linked to Yemen, The New York Times reported Monday.

Syd 05:55 GMT January 18, 2010
UK risks becoming 'bankruptcy brothel': Creditor
BRITAIN is in danger of becoming the "bankruptcy brothel of the world", it was claimed yesterday, as furious creditors prepared a landmark legal challenge over the country's largest pre-pack administration.

moscow mike 05:22 GMT January 18, 2010

moscow mike 17:09 GMT January 15, 2010
moscow mike 10:40 GMT January 15, 2010
Took profit on the allocation from 1.6295 at 1.6295 for +20.

Allocation from 1.6320 still running.

Took 1/3 off the position @ 1.6220 for +100 pips. Stops at 1.6280 for rest


Took shorts back after stop in profits. Fresh shorts in @ 1.6310. Stops as per initial idea.


tokyo ginko 05:04 GMT January 18, 2010

add 25% 1.0282

Hong Kong Qindex 04:39 GMT January 18, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/GBP : Critical Support 0.8776

As shown in the monthly cycle directional indicator the market is under pressure when it is below 0.8842. The graphic presentation indicates that the bias is on the downside when it is below 0.8827. The market is negative when it is trading within the monthly cycle reference lower limits, i.e. below 0.8792 (See details in my webpage at the session of long term references for position traders). Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 0.8776.

EUR/GBP : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 04:26 GMT January 18, 2010
DJYen Could Tumble, But Real Intervention Unlikely
Japan's new finance minister has said on his first full day in the job that he wants to see a weaker yen, and it looks like he may get his wish even if he is unable to follow through on his threat to intervene in foreign-exchange markets.

The currency slid sharply early Thursday as Naoto Kan used his first press conference in his new position to say he'd like to see the dollar trading at around Y95--some 3% above the rate it then held--in an effort to support Japanese exports.

The statement marks a U-turn from the Japanese government, which has shied away from intervening since it came to power last summer, even as the dollar sank as low at Y85 in November.

Many analysts and investors are bracing for a hefty yen tumble in the coming months. But few think that the populist Kan will be the key to any move.

"Talk is cheap, and I think in the end the financial markets will find it difficult to believe in [Kan] as a driving force behind any depreciation in the yen," said Yunosuke Ikeda, a senior yen strategist at Nomura in Tokyo.

With Japanese interest rates already very low, there's little scope for further monetary easing--an important component of a successful intervention strategy, Ikeda said.

What's more, Japan would almost certainly be unable to clinch the international support it would need to take such a step, he added.

"The U.S. is very unlikely to accept a real intervention from Japan, especially as the U.S. dollar is now recovering and as the political relationship between the U.S. and Japan is worsening," he said. Expect the dollar to trade around a range of Y85 to Y90 throughout the year, he advised.

Other analysts agree that Japan would find it tough to secure international backing for a yen-weakening program. After all, if it is acceptable for Japan to weaken its currency, that could spark a free-for-all, with authorities around the world exchanging competitive devaluations. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, for example, has made his unhappiness with euro strength clear again this week.

Still, other factors mean that the yen could fall much further than Kan suggests or Nomura's Ikeda expects. The yen was looking very vulnerable even before Kan spoke, with investors already getting jumpy about Japan's feeble economic recovery and the enticing lure of foreign bonds.

"I think we're heading for a two- to three-year decline in the yen," said Thanos Papasavvas, a currency fund manager at Investec in London.

"If the current, generally benign environment persists, then the growth and interest rate differentials [between Japan and other major economies] will pull the currency down," he said, adding that he plans to keep on selling the yen against a diversified basket of dollars, euros, sterling and Australian dollars. The dollar could climb to Y110 this year, he added.

Even that may be a conservative bet as the Japanese economic recovery stumbles, according to Stephen Jen, chief currencies investor at hedge fund BlueGold Capital in London.

"It's only a matter of time before we see a greater divergence in growth between the U.S. and Japan," Jen said. "Whether that translates into a divergence in interest rates is not as important as people think; the growth differentials are key." On that basis, selling the yen against the Korean won could also be a highly profitable bet, he added.

Gross domestic product data from the third quarter of 2009, released in December, already show a gap between Japan and the U.S.

Japan's annualized GDP reading was up 1.3%, whereas the rate of growth in the U.S. was 2.2%. That means international investors are more likely to gravitate towards the U.S. than Japan for their investments in equities and companies, yen pessimists say.

The yen is also likely to be punished for Japan's public finances. "The fiscal situation is looking dire," said David Woo, chief currencies strategist at Barclays Capital in London, who added that the new finance minister even talked about increasing government spending in the same press conference where he threatened intervention.

Meanwhile, developments in the bond markets also point to yen weakness. U.S. government bonds now offer an unusually high nominal yield compared with Japanese bonds, as investors start betting on increases in U.S. interest rates. That could soon trigger a wave of overseas bond buying by Japanese accounts, some analysts said.

GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT January 18, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 18-Jan-2010 - 0337 GMT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:12 GMT January 18, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/CHF : The market is now consolidating within the daily cycle matrix system at 1.0270 - 1.0274 - 1.0291 for the time being.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:34 GMT January 18, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/CHF : Critical Resistance 1.0411

The current expected trading range is 1.0080 and 1.0411. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the bias is on the downside when the market is trading below 1.0326.

USD/CHF : Monthly Cycle Charts

HCMC Inter 02:20 GMT January 18, 2010
NZ median house prices +9.6% YoY

Hope rise in all over the world :D

Hong Kong 01:48 GMT January 18, 2010
EUR/USD Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
EUR/USD: 1.4342

Last Update At 18 Jan 2010 00:56 GMT

As euro has fallen again after staging a minor
recovery fm 1.4335 (Aust.) to 1.4335 due to renewed
cross selling of euro, a breach of said sup wud
exten recent decline twd 1.4301 b4 prospect of a
correction due to loss of momentum.

Exit long n stand aside as firm rise abv 1.4375
needed to bring a recovery twd 1.4400 later.

Range Forecast
1.4335 / 1.4365

R: 1.4375/1.4406/1.4445
S: 1.4335/1.4301/1.4264

Singapore CG 01:30 GMT January 18, 2010
ECB prepares legal ground for euro rupture as Greek crisis escalates

If one country was forced out of the euro then it would be open season for attacks, one by one, on other weak members.

Syd 01:24 GMT January 18, 2010
ECB prepares legal ground for euro rupture as Greek crisis escalates

dc CB 01:20 GMT January 18, 2010
MLK Slack time


dc CB 01:19 GMT January 18, 2010
MLK Slack time
a couple here, reading for the NY session slack

NYT Sun Mag


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