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Forex Forum Archive for 01/19/2010

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:34 GMT January 19, 2010
Australian Consumer Sentiment Index +5.6% In Jan Vs Dec
Reply   
An index of consumer sentiment in Australia rose 5.6% in January from December.

The index rose to 120.1 points in January in seasonally adjusted terms from 113.8 points in December, compliers Westpac Banking Corp. and the Melbourne Institute said in a statement on Wednesday.

In trend terms, the index fell 0.4% in January compared with December, damping a 31.1% annual increase.

Westpac Chief Economist Bill Evans said, "this is a very strong result. The index is seasonally adjusted and therefore takes account of traditional January optimism. Nevertheless, it is still above its level of last September prior to the Reserve Bank's record three consecutive rate increases over the three months from October to December."

http://www.westpac.com.au

Syd 23:16 GMT January 19, 2010
AUD Awaiting China Data Deluge - Dealer
Reply   
China data due Thursday which includes CPI and GDP, says JP Morgan FX Dealer Matthew Brady. "All eyes will be on China data." Notes a lot of options-gamma type trading, meaning AUD has buyers or sellers 20 points either direction. Pegs support at 0.9170, resistance 0.9320. "We would need to see a clean break of those levels to get a little bit more momentum. At this stage, I would prefer to buy any dips towards 0.9200."

Syd 23:07 GMT January 19, 2010
AUD/USD Could Test 0.9600 - BNP
Reply   
¨ China policy tightening shouldn't pose too much of a threat for AUD, pair could push higher to 0.9600, say BNP Paribas FX Strategists. "This gradual and controlled pace of tightening is unlikely to cause too much of a disruption to global investor confidence at this stage and we would suggest that cautious long positions in the commodity currencies can be maintained for the time being." Says any AUD/USD pullbacks are a buy, expects a retest of 0.9330, with break above to target 0.9600.

lkwd jj 22:09 GMT January 19, 2010
cable
Reply   
below 163.11 can be ugly.

Lahore FM 21:59 GMT January 19, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy usdcad
Entry: 1.0316 Target: Stop: 1.0240

2nd long in play at 1.0316 now with stops.

earlier ordr at 1.0285 offer pulled out.

GVI Forex Blog 21:49 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
Canada's dollar fell against the greenback on Tuesday after the Bank of Canada held interest rates steady and tweaked its growth outlook, citing weak U.S. demand and a strong Canadian currency

Forex News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ slips lower after central bank statement

GVI Forex john 21:30 GMT January 19, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Lots of interest in EURUSD 200-day moving average

Click for Complete Chart Points

 

1/19/2010

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

Close

1.4304

91.07

1.0311

1.6372

1.0302

High

1.4413

91.26

1.0356

1.6457

1.0348

Low

1.4253

90.32

1.0231

1.6313

1.0251

Mov avgs

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

5 day

1.4413

91.04

1.0238

1.6312

1.0276

10 day

1.4422

91.64

1.0237

1.6182

1.0308

20 day

1.4391

91.86

1.0295

1.6105

1.0386

50 day

1.4634

90.08

1.0233

1.6315

1.0494

100 day

1.4678

90.41

1.0258

1.6307

1.0584

200 day

1.4292

93.13

1.0586

1.6161

1.0960

Pivots

1.4323

90.88

1.0299

1.6381

1.0300

 

GVI Forex Chart Gallery. Printable FX Charts

 

GVI Forex john 21:29 GMT January 19, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

NZ Data Call @ 21:45 GMT

Consumer Price Index (most countries have a similar measure)


The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as “core” inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.

Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.

GVI Forex john 21:10 GMT January 19, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Pivot Points Based on Tuesday ranges and closes...

Click for Complete Chart Points

1/19/2010

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

Res 3

1.4554

92.39

1.0493

1.6592

1.0447

Res 2

1.4483

91.82

1.0424

1.6525

1.0397

Res 1

1.4394

91.45

1.0368

1.6448

1.0350

P=(H+L+C)/3

1.4323

90.88

1.0299

1.6381

1.0300

Sup 1

1.4234

90.51

1.0243

1.6304

1.0253

Sup 2

1.4163

89.94

1.0174

1.6237

1.0203

Sup 3

1.4074

89.57

1.0118

1.6160

1.0156

 

EUR/GBP

EUR/JPY

EUR/CHF

AUD/USD

GBP/JPY

Res 3

0.8890

131.85

1.4826

0.9397

151.20

Res 2

0.8850

131.29

1.4804

0.9339

150.34

Res 1

0.8792

130.79

1.4776

0.9292

149.75

P=(H+L+C)/3

0.8752

130.23

1.4754

0.9234

148.89

Sup 1

0.8694

129.73

1.4726

0.9187

148.30

Sup 2

0.8654

129.17

1.4704

0.9129

147.44

Sup 3

0.8596

128.67

1.4676

0.9082

146.85

 

 

 

 

 

 

GVI Forex Blog 21:00 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
21:00 GMT- Jan 19 (global-view.com) The U.S. is going into a transitional period politically as many have discovered the difference between rhetoric and reality. Clearly the leaders of the President's party have overreached with an extreme left big spending agenda that has done little to produce jobs...

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Fresh Political Winds Blowing?

GVI Forex john 20:56 GMT January 19, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Fresh Political Winds Blowing?

21:00 GMT- Jan 19 (global-view.com) The U.S. is going into a transitional period politically as many have discovered the difference between rhetoric and reality. Clearly the leaders of the President's party have overreached with an extreme left big spending agenda that has done little to produce jobs...

MORE...

GVI Forex Blog 19:57 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
In a two-toned evening, the European session saw risk appetite decline on downbeat German data, followed by a more upbeat US session inspired by potential gains for the Republican party

Forex Research - Morning Report

GVI Forex Blog 19:31 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   

Equity Market Support Continues to be Threatened

GVI Forex Blog 19:19 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   

EUR USD dragged Down by Greece’s Debt Woes

GVI Forex Jay 18:42 GMT January 19, 2010
Mass vote

ab, the only surprise would be if the Democrat surprises. Result is pretty well known and not an upset given recent polls but a major upset otherwise with national political ramifications.

Mtl JP 18:36 GMT January 19, 2010
that is interesting sailor's what IF analogy.

It is tuff to impossible to dead-recon with a compass in a fog.
best might be to drop anchor, pull out a horn and listen for signals from other vessels and wait for the fog to lift.

GVI Forex Blog 18:30 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
When it comes to financial markets (asset prices and FX), the economy and the policy response, I feel like a sailor at sea in a fog. My compass tells me port is in one direction, while my sense tells me it is another direction.

Forex Blog - It ain’t over ‘til it’s over…

empoli (Italy) ab 18:23 GMT January 19, 2010
Mass vote

So it means more or less that we will have it during mi nite....
thks a lot Jay

GVI Forex Jay 18:18 GMT January 19, 2010
Mass vote

ab, I am not sure about the voting hours but polls in the Northeast usually close at 8 or 9 PM EST

empoli (Italy) ab 18:15 GMT January 19, 2010
Mass vote
Reply   
GVI Forex Jay 14:46 GMT January 19, 2010
Mass vote:

excuse me Jay, at what gmt time will be held the Mass vote pls? tia for cooperation

San Diego bobl 17:26 GMT January 19, 2010
gbp/usd and eur/usd
Reply   
Sofia,
Sorry, internet has been down all day, and now thus far have not been able get charts.........frustrating. Anyway, did you have question that I could answer?

gl/gt

PAR 17:21 GMT January 19, 2010
Yes We Can
Reply   
Obama to Give State of the Union Speech Jan. 27

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: January 19, 2010
Filed at 9:58 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Barack Obama will deliver his first State of the Union address on Wednesday, Jan. 27.

Obama will address a joint session of Congress, beginning at 9 p.m. EST.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Monday the speech would be broadcast live on national television and streamed on the White House Web site. It will be Obama's first State of the Union address.

The speech Obama delivered last year, just weeks after taking office, technically was not considered a State of the Union address because at that point he'd only been in office for a short time.

lkwd jj 16:53 GMT January 19, 2010
cable

stopped at b/e.

GVI Forex Blog 16:45 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
The Dollar received a bid in particular against its European counterparts during the overseas session. The Euro was hindered by weaker than expected sentiment readings for the month of January while UK inflation figures surged to 10-month highs.

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

lkwd jj 16:25 GMT January 19, 2010
cable
Reply   
lkwd jj 15:37 GMT January 19, 2010
cable: Reply

Entry: 16370 Target: 16320 Stop: 16390

r2 @ 85 should hold this mkt after it gave up earlier gains. sell em on way down.
-----------------------------
stops to entry. going my way, but needs to pick up steam.

GVI Forex Blog 16:19 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
Jan 19 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No data are due from the Far East Wednesday. A key early data highlight Wednesday will be U.K. employment data and the latest BOE minutes. North American highlights will be Canadian CPI figures and U.S. housing data (Stats and Permits) plus PPI inflation.

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for January 20, 2010

GVI Forex Jay 16:17 GMT January 19, 2010
best broker for 2010? anyone?

Mailman, good to see you again

See your email

GVI Forex Blog 16:16 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
Price action on USD/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has displayed marked bearishness for more than a week, since the top of a parallel downtrend channel was reached and respected in early

Chart of the Day - 1/19/2010 – USD/JPY

GVI Forex john 16:14 GMT January 19, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Jan 19 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No data are due from the Far East Wednesday. A key early data highlight Wednesday will be U.K. employment data and the latest BOE minutes. North American highlights will be Canadian CPI figures and U.S. housing data (Stats and Permits) plus PPI inflation.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

9:30

UK

Oct Avg Earn 3m yy

1.60%

1.50%

9:30

UK

Nov Claimant Count

-2.5K

-6.3K

9:30

UK

BOE Minutes

n/a

n/a

12:00

CA

Dec BOC CPI yy

1.70%

1.50%

12:00

CA

Dec CPI yy

1.50%

1.00%

12:00

US

WK Mtg Stats

n/a

n/a

13:30

CA

Nov Mfg Sales

0.60%

2.00%

13:30

US

Dec PPI

0.00%

1.80%

13:30

US

Dec PPI core

0.10%

0.50%

13:30

US

Dec House Starts

580K

574K

13:30

US

Dec Bldg Permits

572K

589K

21:00

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

8:58

EZ

Jan Mfg PMI flash

51.8

51.6

8:58

EZ

Jan Svc PMI flash

53.9

53.7

13:30

US

Wk Initial Claims

440K

444K

13:30

US

WK Cont Claims

4.600M

4.596M

14:30

CA

BOC Policy Report

n/a

n/a

15:00

US

Jan Philly Fed

17.7

20.4

15:00

US

Dec Lead Ind

0.80%

0.90%

16:00

US

EIA Crude Oil

n/a

+3.7M

16:00

US

EIA Gasoline

n/a

+3.8M

16:00

US

EIA Distillate

n/a

+1.4M

16:00

US

EIA Cap Util

n/a

81.30%

16:00

US

DOE Nat Gas bcf

n/a

-266

Lahore FM 15:59 GMT January 19, 2010
best broker for 2010? anyone?

welcome Mailman,good to see you around!

lkwd jj 15:37 GMT January 19, 2010
cable
Reply   

Entry: 16370 Target: 16320 Stop: 16390

r2 @ 85 should hold this mkt after it gave up earlier gains. sell em on way down.

Richland QC Mailman 15:36 GMT January 19, 2010
best broker for 2010? anyone?
Reply   
Hi folks.

Hi Jay. been away from forex trading for 5+ months already . Anyway, which is the best performing broker nowadays to whom we can trust our funds in 2010? please email details Jay. thanks in advance for your kind assistance.

hmmm. usd/cad...(bottoming out?), cable dances...

sofia kaprikorn, sharp gains. congrats!

tokyo ginko 15:24 GMT January 19, 2010
Long USD/CAD

add final 25% 1.0315

GVI Forex Blog 15:22 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
The EUR/USD is about to test the 1.4200 support. The daily chart’s price action shows very aggressive bearish candles after reaching 1.4600. In fact, with the stochastic showing heavy momentum...

Daily Technical Update EUR/USD Test of Support

sofia kaprikorn 15:04 GMT January 19, 2010
200-DMA pull

john - tnx - it's more of a ego trip as my personal objective is at a later stage to evolve along with my equity and outgrow the "20 pip jockey" phase and step into the higher realms of trading and maybe the other side ..

sofia kaprikorn 15:01 GMT January 19, 2010
200-DMA pull

I wrote to BOBL that I saw last night Pound daily is in uptrend with the break of recent 1.64 high it is going to the 1.6750 upper range you can see on Weekly charts..

to me the Sterling strength is mostly due to the EUR/GBP fall under 200-dma and since it's 4-th test and positive it's next stop is 0.86 ..

however EUR/USD at the 200-DMA is quite shaky - it might temporatily experience its magnetic pull but I don't wanto hold longs on a close below it.. case in point Aug 2008... you can see it in the charts .. tnx for the comment anyway!

GVI Forex john 14:58 GMT January 19, 2010
200-DMA pull

Kapricom- Id be happy with 20 pips any day. You have to take what the market is willing to give.

London SFH 14:54 GMT January 19, 2010
200-DMA pull


fwiw,I dont think you cable trade was ,contra.at all-think tahts heading further north towards 1.6800 by month end

gl/gt

sofia kaprikorn 14:50 GMT January 19, 2010
200-DMA pull

sofia kaprikorn 14:07 GMT January 19, 2010
200-DMA pull: Reply
long EUR/USD 1.4276 / SL 1.4242
_____________________________
covered at 1.4296 for +20

I know these meager trades look quite ridiculous in the eyes of seasoned pro's with realized R/R of 0.7 to 1.3, however they are contra trades so I tend to take profits fast on these "catch a falling knife" kind of trades as hey are clear on the ST charts I use for them but I don't want to overstay my welcome as the Daily timeframes might dictate other trends are in place.

GVI Forex Blog 14:41 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
Eurozone data weak Big election to haunt Obama? Spike in UK inflation

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (19 January 2010)

sofia kaprikorn 14:40 GMT January 19, 2010
gbp/usd daily pivot 1.6319

sofia kaprikorn 13:15 GMT January 19, 2010
gbp/usd daily pivot 1.6319: Reply
long GBP/USD 1.6333 / SL 1.6303
____________________________
covered at 1.6373 for +40

Hong Kong Qindex 14:40 GMT January 19, 2010
QIndex Trading System

EUR/GBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/GBP : Critical Support 0.8719

Hong Kong Qindex 14:32 GMT January 19, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell EUR/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/JPY : Critical Support 129.39



As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 130.31. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the weekly cycle pivot centers at 129.79 - 131.04 - 133.71.



EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/eur-yen.html

LJ BK 14:29 GMT January 19, 2010
$
Reply   
If the eurusd could sustain below 200 dma and below the support (now resistance) line that was formed in a recent month, there is a good possiblity we get another leg of usd bounce. A decent commodity and equity correction could also be in place. Looking for aud at 0.85, gold at 1.000 and silver at 16.

Lahore FM 14:27 GMT January 19, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy usdcad
Entry: 1.0285 offer order Target: Stop:

stops upon fill.order with 1.0285 offer aide in.

Amsterdam Purk 14:08 GMT January 19, 2010
GBP/USD

The clog closed the cable shorts at 16334, no more patience.... Golden years

sofia kaprikorn 14:07 GMT January 19, 2010
200-DMA pull
Reply   
long EUR/USD 1.4276 / SL 1.4242

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/4 per cent and reiterates conditional commitment to hold current...

THREAD: CAD in Depth Trading Thread UPDATED

GVI Forex john 14:03 GMT January 19, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

BOC unchanged as expected.

Medan Ardent 14:01 GMT January 19, 2010
200 MA, the emportant support
Reply   


Stoch RSI w/EMA showed us the eur have the power go down

GVI Forex Blog 13:23 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
With all the controversy surrounding Jay Leno, Conan O’Brien and mama bird NBC ... perhaps China would like to slip in and host a show, regardless of whether they get pushed back by half an hour.

Leno, Conan: Look out for China!

sofia kaprikorn 13:15 GMT January 19, 2010
gbp/usd daily pivot 1.6319
Reply   
long GBP/USD 1.6333 / SL 1.6303

GVI Forex Blog 13:15 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   

Equity Market Support Continues to be Threatened

GVI Forex Blog 13:15 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   

Shift in Risk Sentiment Boosting U.S. Dollar

GVI Forex john 13:08 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Learning And Education Forum

LIBOR is the offered side of deposit interest rates that very large banks charge each other for wholesale loans...

THREAD: Forex Fundamentals for Technical Traders UPDATED

GVI Forex john 12:55 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

The first column (3-mo) is the three month LIBOR (London Inter-bank Offered Rate) for interest rates. The columns...

THREAD: Qusetion to GVI or Mr Jay UPDATED

Lahore FM 12:53 GMT January 19, 2010
Trade Ideas

01/13/2010 00:46:06 FM Lahore 19
01/11/2010 17:34:11 FM Lahore 5

Buy usdchf 1
Entry: 1.0152 Target: Stop: 1.0105
long here.
-
half out now at 1.0195 for 42+ pips,stops stay as before for rest 1/2.target remains open.
--
rest out at 1.0343 now for 191+ in all.

Lahore FM 12:51 GMT January 19, 2010
Trade Ideas

01/13/2010 18:19:54 FM Lahore 9

Buy usdcad
Entry: Target: Stop:
long again on usdcad now at 1.0316 with ginko!

earlier stopped for some 50 pips.
--
closed out for minus 2 pips.running half long from 1.0235 though.

GVI Forex john 12:49 GMT January 19, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 14:00 GMT Bank of Canada and U.S. TIC data

Central Bank Policy Decision


Often a major events for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.

Treasury TIC data

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system collects data for the United States on cross-border portfolio investment flows and positions between U.S. residents (including U.S.-based branches of firms headquartered in other countries) and foreign residents (including offshore branches of U.S. firms).

IMPACT: Traders sometimes use the TIC data as a measure of international demand for U.S. financial instruments. These data tend to be a bit old (two months) by the time they are released.

Mtl JP 12:48 GMT January 19, 2010
eurusd

the difference may lie in the way the average is calculated:
closing vs high
sunday included in denominator or not.

I have a suspicion g-v calculates - or verifies - its own averages, the way it should be: manually

Medan Ardent 12:44 GMT January 19, 2010
eurusd

I think ur chart have 6 candles in a week. the sunday morning candle. So the right one is 5 candle in a week.

GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT January 19, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



CHART: U.K. inflation data hotter than expected.

GVI Forex Jay 12:32 GMT January 19, 2010
eurusd

Our database shows the 200 day mva at 1.4286

BA mades 12:31 GMT January 19, 2010
eurusd

My 200 DMA (simple) for eur/usd is at 1.4451 and 200 DMA (exponential) at 1.4409. So are my charts bad if you mention here 1.4293 ?!?

empoli ab 12:21 GMT January 19, 2010
eurusd

Interesting comment from Nomura abt importance and previous Euro's moves ard 200 dma in the past:
"Eurusd watch out: With the poor ZEW number, the 200-day MA is on the horizon again - it currently comes in at 1.4293. There are some good bids ahead of this but there will surely be some short-term stops through it. Even more pertinent is if we close through it which will cause a raft of stops from Real Money etc.

To give you the significance:
The line has held since May 2009 - EURUSD went up 3 big figs that day on the break and has never gone back below.
Before then, it had held on the topside since August 2008 - on that day, EURUSD fell 3 big figs on the break below - we tested once in the interim managing to get only 9 pips through before reversing to close the day 479 pips lower! Amazing.
Before then, it had held on the downside since March 2006 without a single break.

You don't get a more significant technical level than this...watch carefully."

Medan Ardent 12:11 GMT January 19, 2010
eurusd

eur chart daily, MA 55 cross MA 100 today

GVI Forex Blog 12:09 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 19-Jan-2010 - 1207 GMT

Hamburg 98ccm 11:56 GMT January 19, 2010
EURO jumping off a cliff
Reply   
Banks say its too late to focus on Greece but who ever believes they will go back to their Drachme currency in the near future. "What was that little raid on the € back in 2010?"
"People lost confidence so you should not wonder, children."

GVI Forex Blog 11:53 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
The euro fell broadly on Tuesday, hitting a four-month low against sterling and a one-month low against the yen on the back of a weak German sentiment survey and ongoing concerns about the state of Greek public finances.

FOREX NEWS-Euro falls on weak ZEW; sterling shines

makassar alimin 11:17 GMT January 19, 2010
eurusd

viies, we might still see your 1.36 euro...dont give it up just yet

GVI Forex Blog 11:12 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
Weak economic data has been at the forefront of trading in macro markets this morning in Europe. UK inflation figures for December were sharply higher than expected across the board.

European Market Update: Kraft sweetens offer for Cadbury to £11.9B as UK inflation gives BOE food for thought; Greece receives a verbal lashing

tallinn viies 11:12 GMT January 19, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
left order to buy euros at 1,4295, stop at 1,4245.
In the beginning of year I put down to paper the level which could be yearly low for 2010. And its 1,3600-1,3700 range. will see how january develops but right now I have now reason to pull it down.

makassar alimin 11:09 GMT January 19, 2010
buy gbpusd
Reply   
Buy gbpusd
Entry: 1.6370 Target: 1.6580 Stop: 1.6319

bought here ...good luck you guys going short gbpusd

empoli ab 11:03 GMT January 19, 2010
GBP/USD

USA ZEUS 01:58 GMT January 19, 2010
GBP/USD: Reply
Short GBP/USD @ 1.6419

Hi ZEUS are u ard? seems that even if with an above (and how much!!!) CPI data from UK cable is unable to overcome 1,6455 area (very good for u my frd, where by the way u have tp if any?) and as i told u tonite (i hoped in a surprise from cpi but this happened on the contrary to what i said...) a lower eurgbp (due to very bad comments from ZEW istitution i have to say...more than the numbers themselves...) is drawing down eur usd and cable.
I added my short pos on break of 1,4370 (1,4363 i had on order to sell again) now we have just to see the last defence of 200 dma which (i hope) will be tested today.
Did u have my friend a look to the charts, and obviously, may i have again ur respectable opinion on these pairs pls.
Tia for ur comments and gl for your pos

GVI Forex Blog 10:59 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
11:00 GMT- Jan 19 (global-view.com) U.S. traders will have to hit the ground running today following Blue Monday and the MLK holiday .The tone of the USD appears to have improved today, but trends recently have been having a very short half-life.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- N.Y. Hitting the Ground Running

GVI Forex john 10:56 GMT January 19, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support
Reply   


The Daily Forex View

N.Y. Hitting the Ground Running

11:00 GMT- Jan 19 (global-view.com) U.S. traders will have to hit the ground running today following Blue Monday and the MLK holiday .The tone of the USD appears to have improved today, but trends recently have been having a very short half-life.

MORE...

London Misha 10:16 GMT January 19, 2010
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Nearing Long MA support! Possible Tweezer Bottom on the Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Doji on the Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Bull Sandwich on the Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Possible Bull Hammer on the Daily Chart! Additionally, a possible Dead Cross of the Medium/Short down through the Medium MA.
EURGBP - First close under the Long MA!
EURJPY - Bull Meeting Line on the Daily Chart!
USDCAD - Testing the 2009 low as support! Inside Day on the Daily Chart!
AUDUSD - Testing 2010 high as resistance. Possible Golden Cross of the Short MA up through the Short/Medium MA.
NZDUSD - Bull Meeting Lines on the Daily Chart. Possible Bow Tie formation on the MA's.

Medan Ardent 10:04 GMT January 19, 2010
gbp
Reply   


Sell gbp
Entry: Target: Stop:

1.6457 is the 100 % retracement

GVI Forex Blog 09:58 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   
Traders look forward to the publication of the Canadian Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) which will be released tomorrow (January 20).

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 19/01/2010

Juffair KaL 09:29 GMT January 19, 2010
Long term
Reply   
for those that wanna go for more the 8 to 10 big ones
gbpaud for recommedned long for 1.9 to 1.95
i think it started the rallie
maybe next point is 1.765

euraud is another from 1.55 ish area

Juffair KaL 09:08 GMT January 19, 2010
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !

I am Targeting 1.6230
for now

eurusd tgt 1.4210
gl

Viet Nam Forex Begin 08:59 GMT January 19, 2010
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Reply   
Sell GBP/USD
Entry: 1.6387 Target: 1.6357 Stop: 1.6417

Tuesday, 19 January 2010 08:58 GMT

Follow yesterday, USD continues to move down, GBP-AUD move up.

They make GU-AU move up strongly.

However, I see a small adjustment prepare to took place.

Free Signals for morning today

Juffair KaL 07:35 GMT January 19, 2010
USD Buying week
Reply   
Seems that way
Selling EURUSD with spike
Cable too
USDCHF with dips..buying
USDCAD with dips
selling USDJPY with spikes..(Not a buy IMO)
gbpjpy with spikes sell
same for eurjpy

eurgbp still a sell
euraud buy with dips
no worries..will be ok

Syd 04:47 GMT January 19, 2010
PBOC Official: Proper Policy Would Keep Inflation Low - Report
Reply   
China would be able to keep rises in consumer and factory gate prices low this year if it properly manages monetary policy, Securities Times reported on its Web site Monday, citing People's Bank of China Vice Gov. Yi Gang.

Yi reiterated the central bank will continue its moderately loose monetary policy this year, while strengthening liquidity management and encouraging banks to even out their lending across the year, according to the report.

http://news1.secutimes.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:36 GMT January 19, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 19-Jan-2010 - 0335 GMT

Syd 03:26 GMT January 19, 2010
DJ JAL To File For Bankruptcy Protection At Tokyo District Court 0800 GMT-Sources
Reply   
JAL To Brief On Restructuring Plan At 1030 GMT - Sources

JAL To File For Bankruptcy Protection At 0800 GMT - Sources
JAL Turnaround Agency To Seek Share Delisting From Tokyo Bourse-Sources

Syd 03:20 GMT January 19, 2010
Commodities Rally An Ongoing Trend - Craton
Reply   
Craton Capital, whose Global Resources equity fund returned 63% in 2009, says in note that rally in industrial commodities like metals and oil remains a long-term trend. "We strongly believe that we are currently in a global secular trend, albeit brutally interrupted by the global credit crisis, driven by real demand need from urbanisation and industrialisation. We are still in the mid-innings of a multi-year game." Notes restrictions imposed by credit crisis on investment in extracting resources has also exacerbated supply side constraints for some commodities; "it is no longer a question of demand destruction but more one of the magnitude of the potential price hikes." LME metals higher in Asia led by copper; 3-month contract at $7,550/ton, up $50 with 709 lots done

moscow mike 03:02 GMT January 19, 2010
GBPUSD

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.6405 Target: Stop:

moscow mike 05:22 GMT January 18, 2010
GBPUSD: Reply
moscow mike 17:09 GMT January 15, 2010
GBPUSD: Reply
moscow mike 10:40 GMT January 15, 2010
GBPUSD: Reply
Took profit on the allocation from 1.6295 at 1.6295 for +20.

Allocation from 1.6320 still running.
===========

Took 1/3 off the position @ 1.6220 for +100 pips. Stops at 1.6280 for rest

==============

Took shorts back after stop in profits. Fresh shorts in @ 1.6310. Stops as per initial idea.

GT
=============

Stopped for a zero-sum game net. Market is obviously somewhat thin. Fresh shorts 1.6405, stops later.

empoli (Italy) ab 02:34 GMT January 19, 2010
EUR/USD

Thks ZEUS for ur kind words and explanation.
I expect in fact another assault to 1,4335/45 in case of break of 1,4370. Eurgbp now cud make the difference as think cable is a little bit overstretched now, a surprise today from UK inflation cud lead effectively cable lower (hope for u my friend) and as after Kraft/Cadbury loan eur gbp seems to me headed lower again (by the way UBS has strategical shorts eurusd at 1,4405 and eur gbp at 0,8815 tgts to be put in eur usd and 0,8600 in eurgbp) think also eurusd cud go lower.
I wud appreciate very much indeed later ur opinion when u ll be able to have a look to ur charts obviously.
Thanks again for ur comment and gl my friend

Syd 02:33 GMT January 19, 2010
Kraft, Cadbury close to $19 billion friendly deal: sources
Reply   
CHICAGO/LONDON (Reuters) - U.S.-based Kraft Foods Inc and Britain's Cadbury Plc are close to sealing a friendly deal to create the world's largest confectionery group for up to 11.7 billion pounds ($19 billion), sources familiar with the matter said on Monday.

USA ZEUS 02:25 GMT January 19, 2010
GBP/USD

The GBP/USD market condition on a statistical basis is at an extreme. The caveat of taking a position at an extreme is that it can become more extreme.

Cheers!

USA ZEUS 02:23 GMT January 19, 2010
EUR/USD

empoli (Italy) ab 02:12 GMT January 19, 2010

Hello ab friend. Am on the road and don't have my longer term charts loaded at this time. I can offer add'l longer term views a bit later if you'd like. In the shorter term, EUR/USD is at a bit of a balance point. However, I'd imagine that dropping below 1.4370ish would send it to 1.4345ish, the next possible targeted area where there may be a last line of defense before a test lower. I'm better at flow trades than price objectives but perhaps this offers any small bit of value to your own excellent analysis.

GLGT! :-)

Syd 02:20 GMT January 19, 2010
Singtel checks the numbers for $4bn Optus float
Reply   
A $4 BILLION Optus float on the Australian Securities Exchange could kick off as early as mid-February as its parent Singtel continues to speak to investment firms keen to advise on the deal. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/singtel-checks-the-numbers-for-4bn-optus-float/story-e6frg8zx-1225820152100

Syd 02:13 GMT January 19, 2010
GBP/USD Higher; Kraft, Cadbury Deal Eyed - Dealer
Reply   
GBP/USD marks fresh intraday high at 1.6418, highest since December 8, up from earlier low 1.6341; may later target 1.6500, says Shinkin Central Bank's deputy general manager Jun Kato. Says short-term players in Asia buy on expectation GBP may gain further as Kraft Foods appears set to reach deal to acquire major U.K. candy company Cadbury ahead of final offer deadline at end of Tuesday. Adds, GBP gains could later accelerate as "pound sterling is the only currency with a clear direction today, with the others stuck in narrow ranges waiting for U.S. markets to reopen.

empoli (Italy) ab 02:12 GMT January 19, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   
ZEUS, u went short here in cable, im short eur usd avg 1,4381 adding just earlier at 1,4406 to my old pos, may i ask u pls ur respectable opinion on this pair?
think personally that under 1,4455 we have still to test seriously 200 dma tere
cud u comment it in case pls my frd?
tia and gl for ur trade

Syd 02:11 GMT January 19, 2010
UK banks warned they could be hit with US-style tax as Goldman staff get 81% rise in bonuses
Reply   
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1243856/Fury-1bn-bonuses-bailed-bank-Goldman-Sachs-UK-staff.html

Jobless rate soars to 2.5million
The unemployment rate is set to hit the 8 per cent mark for the first time since Tory prime minister John Major was in power, official data is expected to show this week.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1244020/Jobless-rate-soars-2-5m.html#ixzz0d1J3R3ha

USA ZEUS 01:58 GMT January 19, 2010
GBP/USD
Reply   
Short GBP/USD @ 1.6419

San Diego bobl 01:23 GMT January 19, 2010
gbp/usd
Reply   
Sofia,

Good job! I didn't like stg long, thought the resistance levels shown on the hourly would knock it down again.........not to mention weekly, daily resistance.

Looking at the USD and gold/oil correlations, plus of course the yield curve, it appears to me we are in for a bounce (in a bear market). The past little over an hour appears to have some names/size to the move. This would be a great to have a quality name like GC Martin or jr, just to name two, that have flow systems, and could probably tell the story.

Anyway, for now, took half off again on usd/cad, and am not short USD anywhere else. Asia may give us some clues, but the overall dollar index is very oversold and showing some indicator values as turning.

Again.........good job.

gl/gt

Syd 01:06 GMT January 19, 2010
Cadbury deal done
Reply   
Reports that an improved offer from Kraft has been accepted by Cadbury’s

sofia kaprikorn 01:02 GMT January 19, 2010
thin market probing

sofia kaprikorn 17:11 GMT January 18, 2010
thin market probing: Reply
long EUR/USD 1.4388 / SL 1.4366
_____________________________
covered at 1.4403 for +15

sofia kaprikorn 01:00 GMT January 19, 2010
thin market probing

sofia kaprikorn 17:24 GMT January 18, 2010
thin market probing: Reply
long GBP/USD 1.6337 / SL 1.6313
_____________________________
covered at 1.6413 for +76

Syd 00:47 GMT January 19, 2010
China’s PBOC to keep monetary policy loose in 2010
Reply   
Reuters newswires, the PBOC also see moderate growth in CPI and PPI this year.

AUD Set For An Upbeat Quarter - RBS
"Regardless of the timing of the next RBA rate hike, the broad outlook for the AUD remains relatively upbeat for the first quarter," says RBS FX Strategist Greg Gibbs. As always, China's recovery is a powerful battery behind AUD. "A strong recovery in iron ore and Australian coal prices through December and early January suggest activity remains hot in China. This argues for continued strength in the AUD, although fears over policy tightening in China may keep it from running rapidly higher."

EUR Sentiment May Have Turned Permanently
"After a sharp fall in December, EUR has failed to generate much of a recovery over recent weeks and sentiment may well have turned more permanently for the EUR," says RBS FX strategist Greg Gibbs. Notes ongoing worries about Greek fiscal standing, and how EU will assist. "The problems in Greece will be much harder for the market to gloss over this year and there is not a solution which appears good for the EUR."
Lusha the chimpanzee outperforms 94% of Russia bankers with her investment portfolio
Lusha has outperformed almost all of Russia's investment funds with her stock picks
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1242575/Lusha-monkey-outperforms-94-Russia-bankers-investment-portfolio.html#ixzz0d0xzjJDw

Sydney ACC 00:41 GMT January 19, 2010
China
Reply   
Maybe buy Crown:
Aaron Fischer, a gaming analyst for CLSA, said that a portion of China’s liquidity explosion had made its way to the gaming tables of Macau “where people treat gambling as a business venture rather than a pastime”. The world should prepare to be “shocked”, he said, when Macau’s casinos released their earnings for fiscal 2009 and the extent of recent activity was revealed.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6991640.ece

Hong Kong 00:37 GMT January 19, 2010
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
Market Review - 18/01/2010 16:37 All times in GMT

Euro hits one-week low versus U.S. dollar on Greece debt burden


The single currency weakened to a one-week low of 1.4335 versus U.S. dollar in early Australia on Greece's ballooning financial burden whilst sterling strengthened to a one-month high at 1.6380 on strong U.K. house price data.

As Greece's fiscal deficit highlighted the fragility of some euro zone members, investors awaited comments from a meeting of the 16-country bloc's finance ministers on Monday. The euro fell briefly against the dollar in Asia on speculation that European officials in the meeting today would not offer solutions to Greece’s deteriorating public finances before rebounding to 1.4401.

Currency markets were starting the week on a quiet note, with lighter liquidity conditions attributable to the Martin Luther King Day holiday in the United States. U.S. dollar traded inside 90.63-91.07 and 1.0236-1.0293 range against the Japanese yen n Swiss franc respectively. Swiss National Bank head Philipp Hildebrand said on Sunday that the central bank would act resolutely to prevent an excessive appreciation of the franc to ward off the danger of deflation. The euro weakened from 1.4776 to 1.4736 versus the Swiss franc.

The British pound rose from intra-day low of 1.6235 to a one-month high at 1.6380 on cross buying in sterling (eur/gbp dropped to a four-month low at 0.8782) in European trading session due to the firmer UK housing data. Rightmove house prices increased by 0.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y in January, compared to the previous reading of 2.2% m/m drop and 1.7% y/y increase.

Data to be released on Tuesday include Japan consumer confidence, U.K. CPI, CPI Core, RPI, RPI Core, Germany ZEW index, Eurozone ZEW survey and Canada BOC rate decision.

Sydney ACC 00:37 GMT January 19, 2010
Beautifully put.
Universities have been pushing the "Efficient Markets Hypothesis" for years, the main criteria of which is investors make rational decisions. Unfortunately where money is concerned that is the alst think on their minds.
Take the Dubai crisis when it first broke, the news hit the markets late Thursday in New York Thursday, AUD dropped about three cents on the Friday but by Tuesday it had recouped all of its losses as markets became risk positive again.
Nine years ago EUR/USD was 0.8700, Citi was calling EUR down to 80 cents, AUD/USD was 0.4700, Australia was derided as being an old world economy.
Markets overshoot which I put down to fear and greed.

Syd 00:22 GMT January 19, 2010
DJ AUD/USD Near Term Test 0.9320, Should Retest 2009 Highs - BNP
Reply   
AUD/USD should run into sellers at 0.9320 in near term as investors overly long trim their positions, say BNP Paribas strategists. "We would view further dips below the 0.9200 level as buying opportunities, particularly against other majors, as the outlook for Australia continues to be rosy. We look for a re-test of the 2009 highs over the coming week."

sofia kaprikorn 00:18 GMT January 19, 2010
RF.
indeed isn't it strange how short and distorted memory markets and humans in general tend to have. it was March '09 when the world was on the brink of total financial disaster - and todays the problem is how big bonuses are. 9 months ago it was all about replacing the USD by Special Rights and only a 8% correction caused the world to get so bullish on the USD.
Then again the PIIGS divergence bet now is replacing the convergence bet in the Euro zone where the economic discrepancies between the old/developed and the new/not-so-developed countries starts to create inner tension. But as the 'beggar thy neighbor' rationale dominates the post GFC financial arena it will be about who will be able to devalue the most its currency so he can print enough to repay debt. that's why just pointing to some problem doesn't fundamentally translate into currency trend as all majors are trying the same at one time.

 




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