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Forex Forum Archive for 01/20/2010

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:46 GMT January 20, 2010
Reuters report that senior PBOC official Zhang Tao
Reply   
Quoted saying in Xinhua news agency as saying , current moderately loose policy will continue but that the PBOC will properly manage the pace of credit growth

Syd 23:23 GMT January 20, 2010
China 4Q GDP Likely +10.8%, Dec CPI +1.7% - Poll
Reply   
dj PREVIEW: China likely returned to double-digit economic growth in 4Q09, cementing recovery from crisis, as inflation pressures mount, threat of asset bubbles looms. 4Q GDP tipped +10.8% on year (vs 3Q's +8.9%), median forecast of 12 economists polled by Dow Jones shows, bringing full-year growth to 8.5% (vs 9.6% in 2008) in line with Beijing's target of around 8% growth. December CPI tipped +1.7% on year (vs +0.6% in November), poll shows, as economists say inflation pressures building due to exceedingly strong growth. "For policy makers, the imminent problem is runaway property prices, and a major task for 2010 will be to execute their (stimulus) exit strategy properly to ensure a soft landing," says Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu. Data due 0200 GMT.

Syd 22:58 GMT January 20, 2010
NZ Nov Adj Retail Sales 0.8% On Month, Consensus +0.5%
Reply   
-New Zealand retail sales rose at a stronger-than-expected pace in November, adding weight to the view the economy is recovering.
Statistics New Zealand said Thursday that seasonally adjusted retail sales in November rose 0.8% from October. October's figure was revised to a rise of 0.1%.

USA ZEUS 22:57 GMT January 20, 2010
Just wanted to make a quick comment that seems to have been lost in the postings here- 10x leverage seems unfair in the playing field. I support that. Would not want businesses driven out because of uncompetitive constraints.
What I have been venting is that these companies have had the chance to prevent all of this with an ethical best practices approach to their business. Collectively, they have chosen a different route and now we are where we are. And THAT is what chaps my hide.

Cheers!

makassar alimin 22:53 GMT January 20, 2010
euro
Reply   
looks like euro will be capped under 1.4150-1.4170 for another leg down fwiw

GVI Forex Blog 22:40 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Canada's dollar notched its steepest one-day loss in about three months on Wednesday as unexpectedly low Canadian inflation figures lessened the chances of a near-term interest-rate rise and as the

Forex News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ tumbles as data shows Canada inflation low

Tallinn viies 22:32 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
covered long euro at bar.
will buy again tommorow some 100 ticks lower. order at 1,4002

USA ZEUS 22:21 GMT January 20, 2010
Ethics- with it, nothing else matters. Without it, nothing else matters.

Tallinn viies 21:53 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
thnks houston st.

what is your thought where we are from here on friday close.
WTI crude +2$ or -2$? tia

USA ZEUS 21:51 GMT January 20, 2010
NYC JM 21:35 GMT January 20, 2010

That is true. I use leverage. Money managers use leverage. I am not opposed to leverage.
However, excess leverage becomes predatory the same way interest rates and fees become excessive with predatory lending practices. Do you suppose that the retail forex dealers have offered a fair and reasonable product to retail traders? If you do then please kindly explain why there is an overwhelming lopsided number of complaints about OTC FX vs exchange traded products.

Dealers have caused this mess. Individual traders are shouting that they are falling victim so the system needs to be preserved.

Sounds like deja vu all over again from the banking implosion caused by predatory lending practices but the systemic risk was just too great to let it fail.

Save the bucket shops and their predatory unethical practices so they do not take haven overseas!

houston st 21:40 GMT January 20, 2010
API stats
Reply   

crude -1.802
mogas +.667
dist -3.385

ref runs 77.3 vs 79.8 w-o-w

NYC JM 21:35 GMT January 20, 2010
Zeus, unless you trade in the cash market 1:1, you use leverage when you trade futures. It is the nature of the commodities business.

Tallinn viies 21:32 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
API numbers pls?

much different from 4 mio in total what aver. est for EIA

USA ZEUS 21:32 GMT January 20, 2010
Call it a reaction to an industry fraught with predatory leverage practices.

NYC JM 21:28 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd

Tallin. If 10:1 was an industry standard it would be one thing. This is not the case, even futures offers much higher leverage, So if you want to reduce leverage, keep it competitive, not punitive. Education is the best regulation.

As for trying to push everything on to the futures exchanges, all it will do is drive it offshore.

USA ZEUS 21:26 GMT January 20, 2010
NYC JM 21:16 GMT January 20, 2010

I am not contending if 10:1 or 15:1 account equity leverage is best.
Personally, I cannot imagine using such ridiculous leverage. Any fund manager who uses such without any hedge is one step away from legal action by those looking to be made whole.

My point is that action is being taken as a consequence of EXTREME abuse by the Forex bucketeers. Had they been more ethical in their business practices we would not be discussing this.
Extreme abuses tend to be met with extreme consequence. The abusive practices are not limited to only offering reckless leverage, but deceptive and unethical false marketing with it as well. The other points of proposed regulation make a lot of sense as well.

dc CB 21:23 GMT January 20, 2010
imho.
Regulating retail FX must be considered a pain. I think the CFTC wants to push retail FX into the futures market because they already regulate that market. The CME has all the FX products, more than just the IMM - big 6. They have crosses, and mini's too. But nobody trades them. So having retail go to the futures market would be "good" for both the CFTC and the CME.

Tallinn viies 21:22 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
NYC JM 21:16 GMT - when I started in margin trading business 15 years ago then it was very common that 1:10 leverage was offered. few offered 1:20 leverage.
trust me people eared same kind of money as they do today. styles are dirrerent.
I still remember when one of my customers made with sekjpy cross 180% per year just rollling with t/n swap. I was young boy and wanted action but he just rolled it :)
no money for me ;)

NYC JM 21:16 GMT January 20, 2010
Zeus, how would you respond if they reduced futures leverage to 10:1. It is in all our interests to keep the business in the U.S. Only asking for a level playing field.

GVI Forex john 21:14 GMT January 20, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @21:30 GMT
The American Petroleum Institute (API)


The API releases its inventory survey Tuesday evening. It is based on an industry group survey. It is used as an indicator of how the DOE survey will turn out.

Syd 21:13 GMT January 20, 2010
Regulator denies halt to bank lending
Reply   
China's main commercial banks on Jan 19 were told by their supervisors to stop new lending and bill financing for the rest of this month, the China Securities Journal said earlier today, citing bank sources from Shanghai and Beijing. But the country's top banking regulator denied the report.
Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), denied the report while he was attending a financial forum in Hong Kong. "I never said this," Liu was quoted saying by the website of the Economic Observer.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-01/20/content_9350598.htm

USA ZEUS 21:11 GMT January 20, 2010
NYC JM 21:04 GMT January 20, 2010

Call it karma. The regulatory bodies are responding to the endless complaints by the very bucket shops that offered 100, 200, 400:1 leverage to wipe out "under capitalized" traders. If they would have had an ounce of ethics and self- regulated on a "best practices" basis then none of this would have happened and we would not be discussing it here.

Now people are asking to support these bucketeers in the name of fair competition so these outfits don't flee for less credible marketplaces.

Deary me!

Minneapolis DRS2 21:09 GMT January 20, 2010
Well for some people, they are under-capitalized to trade ANY market, heh...let alone forex. Not even 10:1 will help such a trader in that case.

NYC JM 21:04 GMT January 20, 2010
It is about being competitive and reasonable. 10:1 is not competitve even with futures let alone with what non-US firms can offer overseas. All this will do is send the business overseas. Offer reasonable leverage, one that allows these firms to thrive, and keep the business here where you can regulate it. Then educate so traders do not fall victim to the lure of excessive leverage.

USA ZEUS 21:03 GMT January 20, 2010
Glad to see Taxachussettes shake up the delusional administration with a tea party style victory by the people, of the people, and for the people.

USA ZEUS 21:01 GMT January 20, 2010
People are trading FX because they are "under capitalized" to trade regulated markets?
Deary me!

GVI Forex Blog 21:01 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Jan 20 (global-view.com) The USD gained Wednesday after the Democrats lost their veto-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. They continue to hold a sizeable simple majority in the Senate, but...

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Massachusetts Aftermath USD Positive

Minneapolis DRS2 20:58 GMT January 20, 2010
At the end of the day, what 10:1 really means is that the trader must be "well-capitalized" for what they want to trade.

Do you want to go long 100000 EUR/USD? Then be prepared to put up $14k USD, as opposed to $1400 now.

Don't have $14k? Then don't trade such a big position. Trade mini or micro lots. If you're a skilled trader, then you'll eventually grow your account to where you can trade standard-sized lots.

Now, from an industry perspective: Can the retail forex shops in the US handle this kind of change in clientele?

GVI Forex john 20:58 GMT January 20, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Massachusetts Aftermath USD Positive 

21:00 GMT- Jan 20 (global-view.com) The USD gained Wednesday after the Democrats lost their veto-proof majority in the U.S. Senate. They continue to hold a sizeable simple majority in the Senate, but...

MORE...

USA ZEUS 20:56 GMT January 20, 2010
GVI Forex Jay 20:47 GMT January 20, 2010

Please don't think I was discussing brokers individually. I view the regulatory changes directed towards the brokers collectively- accountability, sustainable counter party liquidity, somewhat standardized product offerings (since ethical business practices and self-regulation are an unstable binary explosive mixture).

Leverage is the key sustainability factor for a trader. We can all learn from John Meriwether and his stable of quants and Nobel Laureates.

BA mades 20:55 GMT January 20, 2010
10:1 leverage
Reply   
10:1 maximum leverage is total nonsense. It would allow only a few chosen ones to trade (those who can afford large starting capital). And what is bad about higher leverage anyway ? People keep telling it's what empties the accounts of retail fx users. Allow me to disagree, because what is the difference ?

100:1 leverage, $5000 account, 0.01 minimum lot size (0.1$ for each pip). When using minimum lot size, you have 50.000 pips at your disposal.
10:1 leverage, $50000 account, 0.1 minimum lot size (1$ for each pip). When using minimum lot size, you have 50.000 pips at your disposal.

What's the difference ? People who lose with 100:1 will lose with 10:1, the only difference is, they will lose much more real money ($5000 vs $50000). It's all about how much pips with minimum lot size you can go negative before the margin call.

GVI Forex Jay 20:47 GMT January 20, 2010
Zeus (and others), this is not the place to discuss brokers. The issue is the CFTC proposed changes and the need to comment on them. The 10:1 leverage is what we see as the key issue that needs to be addressed. Under that, you would need to put up $14,000 to trade eur100,000. Send your comments to the CFTC.

Tallin, as you know from articles we have written and our book, we do not favor excessive leverage but 10:1 is punitive.

Tallinn viies 20:47 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
USA ZEUS 20:22 GMT - 100 and 1 % agreed with you.

I have seen and been dealing with more than couple of those cases. it is f...king pain in the a... when your broker just doesnt exist day after today.
last such a scam in big scale for retail accounts I remember was refco guys. in this side of the world they were very active. by pure luck biggest estonian accounts withdraw their funds 1 day before it was closed down. latvian accounts lost close to 100 mio dollars.


Jay - In my view offering clients leverage more than 40 times is criminal.

USA ZEUS 20:41 GMT January 20, 2010
GVI Forex Jay 20:32 GMT January 20, 2010

10:1 seems somewhat punitive. However we have all seen these scammers offer 100, 200 even 400:1!! et's face it- it has been a bigpart of their business model to encourage "wipe and sweep" journal entries.

As for the other points mentioned, I like the idea of some uniform accountability to prevent all of the fly by night bucket shops that have come and gone.

As for $20mm, many of us traders here can easily meet this paltry standard as individuals.

GVI Forex Jay 20:32 GMT January 20, 2010
Zeus, I am for more regulation to protect the individual trader but reducing leverage to 10:1 is punitive, non competitive and not consistent with what is available in the futures market. It would essentially put the retail shops out of business in the U.S. and drive business offshore where there is less regulation. For that reason, you and others are encouraged to voice your comments to the CFTC so this punitive measure is not enacted.

USA ZEUS 20:22 GMT January 20, 2010
Mtl JP 19:56 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply

Few points stick out:
1) $20mm is chicken feed. Counter party risk is real. If they don't have such paltry cash then clients are the real at-risk parties. There are thousands upon thousands of fin'l institutions that have such miniscule cash- no barrier to entry with that and plenty of competition in the marketplace

2) Magnitudes greater FX scams with unregistered bucket shops than registered brokers. No regulatory body is perfect. However, imperfect regulation is better than no accountability for slimy bucketeers.

3) Leverage is what kills traders. Offering such outrageous and reckless leverage only creates an atmosphere of wipe and sweep journal entries from retail accounts into the dealer's P&L account.

Mtl JP 19:56 GMT January 20, 2010
here - http://www.cftc.gov/ucm/groups/public/@newsroom/documents/fi
le/forexrulesproposal.pdf - are all of the 196 pages of the CFTC's new proposed regulations concerning retail FX.

Few points stick out:
1) raised barrier to dealer entry : $20 million minimum net capital standard (p.4)

Net effect: less choice in marketplace. less competition means established big(ger) types benefit from govt limits on competition. The looser is the user.

2) everyone dealing has to register with the authorities. (p.4)
maybe that is good, maybe it is not. Gov't services are notoriously sub-standard. Gov't service also has a increased effect on consumer complacency about due dilligence. Trust gov't service at your own potential peril. Just ask Madeoff.

3) Limit the leverage available to their retail customers on such transactions at 10 to 1. (p.5)
Think... what that means. Do the numbers.

On page 2 the document indicated where and how to submit your commentary if you are so inclined.

DATES: Comments must be received on or before [insert date 60 days from publication in FR]. (Issued in Washington, D. C., on January 7, 2010, by the Commission, p. 192)
ADDRESSES: You may submit comments, identified by RIN 3038-AC61, by any of the following methods:
• Federal eRulemaking Portal: http://www.regulations.gov/search/index.jsp. Follow the instructions for submitting comments.
• E-mail: [email protected] Include “Regulation of Retail Forex” in the subject line of the message.
• Fax: (202) 418-5521.
• Mail: Send to David Stawick, Secretary, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 1155
21st Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20581.
• Courier: Same as Mail above.
All comments received will be posted without change to http://www.cftc.gov, including any personal information provided.

GVI Forex Blog 19:25 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   

Stock fall as Investors Shun Higher Risk Assets

GVI Forex Blog 19:18 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   

Greece’s Budget Problems Pushes Euro to 5-Month Low

GVI Forex Blog 19:16 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Yesterday's Asian session jitters spilled over into the European and US sessions. China's reported move to curb bank lending raised global growth questions,

Forex Research - Morning Report

Medan Ardent 18:28 GMT January 20, 2010
eur/gbp the support
Reply   


Buy eur/gbp
Entry: Target: Stop:

the fibonnaci zones high period as showed at the chart.

sofia kaprikorn 18:28 GMT January 20, 2010
range end test
Reply   
long EUR/USD 1.4107 / SL 1.4066

hk ooozmeeh 18:25 GMT January 20, 2010
DJ UPDATE: Greece Sovereign CDS Hits Widest Ever Level - CMA
Reply   
DJ UPDATE: Greece Sovereign CDS Hits Widest Ever Level - CMA

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt against default
rose to a fresh record high Wednesday following news that the Greek government
is considering a range of financing options to meet its borrowing needs this
year, CMA DataVision said.

At 1500 GMT, Greece's five-year sovereign credit default swap spreads were at
345.5 basis points, compared with Tuesday's closing level of 317 basis points.

That means the annual cost of insuring EUR10 million of Greek government debt
against default for five years had risen to EUR345,500.

The previous record was 345 basis points.

Spreads on the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe index, which lets investors
buy and sell default insurance on a basket of 15 developed western European
sovereign borrowers, also hit a new wide level Wednesday, rising to 84 basis
points.

CDS are tradable, over-the-counter derivatives that function like a default
insurance contract for debt.

If a borrower defaults, the protection buyer is paid compensation by the
protection seller. Swap buyers may be protecting investments they own or simply
making bearish bets against companies or countries.

Medan Ardent 18:23 GMT January 20, 2010
short cable

Not Andrew's Pitchfork but > Ardent's Pitchfork.

GL n GT

USA ZEUS 18:17 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

nyc ws 18:14 GMT January 20, 2010

yes.......?

How long will it take the next 100-200? TIA

nyc ws 18:14 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

Zeus. It took 2 hours to get a 35 pip bounce off the low

USA ZEUS 18:13 GMT January 20, 2010
short cable

Interesting chart.
So many lines in there I thought I saw Andrew's Pitchfork. ;-)

GT!

Medan Ardent 18:04 GMT January 20, 2010
short cable
Reply   


Sell gbp
Entry: 1.6294 Target: 1.6060 Stop: 1.6324

Cable the SHS pattern, Guppy lines crossing, if the channel line break will go south.

GVI Forex Blog 18:01 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Stark Stark warning to Greece EUR falls sharply BoJ sees a little glimmer of hope

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (012010)

hk ooozmeeh 17:56 GMT January 20, 2010
SPAIN
Reply   
=DJ INTERVIEW: Decentralized Spain Seeks Deal To Cut Deficit
MADRID (Dow Jones)--Spain's Socialist-led government is trying to forge a
broad-based political consensus with the country's powerful regional leaders to
rein in one of the euro zone's highest budget deficits, Finance Minister Elena
Salgado said in an interview Wednesday.

Getting bipartisan support for deep spending cuts would be a crucial step to
avoid the credit ratings downgrades now plaguing Greece, which this week has
been scrambling to convince financial markets that it can get fiscal imbalances
under control.
Spain's recognition of the problem comes as the country tries to scale back a
budget deficit expected to top 10% of gross domestic product this year, far
above the 3%-of-GDP limit for European Union countries. The European
Commission, the EU's executive arm, has given Spain until 2013 to meet that
ceiling.

The recognition of the problem also comes as high-debt countries are enduring
increasing pressure to provide reassurance on the credibility of their
deficit-reduction plans. European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary
Affairs Joaquin Almunia said Tuesday he is pressing for more powers to audit
the accounts of European governments in light of the problems discovered in
Greece.

Late last year, Greece's recognition that its budget deficit was much larger
than previously thought triggered a sharp rise in financing costs for that
country, as well as others with weakened public finances such as Spain.
Increased investor concern has even weighed on the euro.

hk oooz 17:52 GMT January 20, 2010
PORTUGAL
Reply   
*DJ IMF Sees "Bleak" Outlook For Portuguese Economy
*DJ IMF: Portugal Won't Meet 2013 Budget Deficit Reduction Target
*DJ IMF: Portugal Must Start To Cut Debt This Year
*DJ IMF: "Many Years" For Portugal To Fix Uncompetitive Economy
*DJ IMF: Portugal Must Start To Cut Debt This Year
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The International Monetary Fund Wednesday said without
major reforms, the outlook for the Portuguese economy is "bleak," and called on
the government to cut public sector wages and welfare payments as a first step
toward cutting its debt.
The fund's judgment on Portugal echoes that of ratings agency Moody's
Investors Service Inc., which warned last week that like Greece, the Portuguese
economy could face a "slow death" due to its low competitiveness and high
budget deficits.
The fund said the Portuguese economy is likely to grow more slowly than the
rest of the euro zone over the longer term, while unemployment levels will
remain high.

And it warned that the country may face a crisis if the government doesn't
act quickly.

"While the most likely scenario is one of gradual adjustment of Portugal's
imbalances, the longer they persist, the greater the risk that the adjustment
could become disruptive," the IMF said.

USA ZEUS 17:42 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

1.4121 looks to be the next clue.

USA ZEUS 17:38 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

1.4106 should be the first clue.

nyc ws 17:24 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd

Notice how the mood in this pair changed when the 50 day mov avg was broken and now the 200 day mov avg has been broken the mood has soured even more. Add to that Greece concerns and I do not see the percentage trying to pick a bottom when longer term positions are being forced out.

Tartu kuues 17:06 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd

Hello viies!

Doing same. 200 MA is broken (plus Greece and Chine)
but at mom looks oversold for me as weel
expecting even 1.43-44 before testing of 1.38..

Gl GT!

Tallinn viies 17:05 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
this pressure dowsnt want to ease,
moved stop to 1,4007. if done Im done for this month.
too much for me.

GVI Forex Blog 17:04 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
In currencies, the greenback maintained a firm tone thanks to fresh risk aversion from both Asia and European developments.

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Tallinn viies 16:56 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
stop was done again
as I Still think things oversold bought again at 1,4102, stop at 1,4052.
target now at 1,4240

lkwd jj 16:55 GMT January 20, 2010
cable

goldman sachs had a piece on uk growth in 2010 expecting a large gain. mkt rallied yesterday on this bit of potentially positive news. maybe today they read full article where it said "based on a drop in the gbp of 25%." oops , sorry bout that.

GVI Forex Blog 16:55 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
The EUR/USD broke below the 1.4200 support and did not stall at the 1.418 area of anticipated support. It has also broken a long-term 200day MA...

Daily Technical Update EUR/USD Stalking Breakout and Continuation

USA ZEUS 16:51 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

Loaded BIG @ 1.4094 and will hold the line right there at a full allocation. Nice swing up is imminent.

Billy Bob 16:37 GMT January 20, 2010
yen

lkwd jj 16:33 GMT

Only the white trash Flucs

GVI Forex Blog 16:34 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are due from the Far East Thursday. In Europe, the key early data highlight will be the flask PMIs which usually are very close to final revised figures. U.S. highlights include weekly jobless data, which many use as their key leading economic indicator.

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for January 21, 2009

lkwd jj 16:34 GMT January 20, 2010
cable
Reply   
looks like cable managing to fend off a steeper drop as eurgbp selling helping to hold fort.

USA ZEUS 16:33 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

EUR/USD dealer stop hunt and flush below the figure will result in some fun upward pressure for a surprise rally of sorts.

lkwd jj 16:33 GMT January 20, 2010
yen

i hope no one was offended.

tokyo ginko 16:31 GMT January 20, 2010
yen

good one!

thanks!

GVI Forex john 16:30 GMT January 20, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Jan 20 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: No major data are due from the Far East Thursday. In Europe, the key early data highlight will be the flask PMIs which usually are very close to final revised figures. U.S. highlights include weekly jobless data, which many use as their key leading economic indicator.

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

8:58

EZ

Jan Mfg PMI flash

51.8

51.6

8:58

EZ

Jan Svc PMI flash

53.9

53.7

13:30

US

Wk Initial Claims

440K

444K

13:30

US

WK Cont Claims

4.600M

4.596M

14:30

CA

BOC Policy Report

n/a

n/a

15:00

US

Jan Philly Fed

17.7

20.4

15:30

US

Dec Lead Ind

0.80%

0.90%

15:30

US

DOE Nat Gas bcf

-210

-266

16:00

US

EIA Crude Oil

+2.5M

+3.7M

16:00

US

EIA Gasoline

+0.4M

+3.8M

16:00

US

EIA Distillate

+1.9M

+1.4M

16:00

US

EIA Cap Util

81.60%

81.30%

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

9:30

UK

Dec Ret Sls mm

1.10%

-0.30%

9:30

UK

Dec Ret Sls yy

3.00%

3.10%

10:00

EZ

Nov New Ind Ord mm

-1.10%

-2.20%

10:00

EZ

Nov New Ind Ord yy

-6.20%

-14.50%

13:30

CA

Nov Retail Sales

-0.20%

0.80%

13:30

CA

Nov RS x-auto

0.50%

0.20%

14:00

BE

Jan Lead Ind

n/a

-7.9

Hong Kong Qindex 16:27 GMT January 20, 2010
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The market is now approaching the monthly cycle reference normal lower limits. It is going to test the supporting strength of 1.3957. The weekly cycle normal lower limits are positioning at 1.3739 - 1.3962 - 1.4049.


EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/euro.html

Lahore FM 16:26 GMT January 20, 2010
Trade Ideas

01/20/2010 12:08:15 FM Lahore 8
01/19/2010 21:59:52 FM Lahore 2

Buy usdcad
Entry: 1.0316 Target: Stop: 1.0240
2nd long in play at 1.0316 now with stops.

earlier ordr at 1.0285 offer pulled out.
--
half closed now at 1.0431,stops raised to entry on rest 1/2.
--
rest out for 170+ pips in all now at 1.0486.

lkwd jj 16:25 GMT January 20, 2010
yen
Reply   


I guess we all need a few laughs in this time of financial turmoil.


I was at my bank today; there was a short line. Just one lady in front of me, an Asian lady who was trying to exchange yen for dollars. It was obvious She was a little irritated.

She asked the teller, 'Why it change? Yesterday, I get two hunat dolla fo yen. Today I only get hunat eighty? Why it change?'

The teller shrugged his shoulders and said, 'Fluctuations.'

The Asian lady says, 'Fluc you white people too!'

USA ZEUS 16:24 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

Feeling obligated, boght some mor eEUR/USD @ 1.4099. Will not add any more for now. Low risk high probability pattern developing here.

Cheers!

NYC ET 16:06 GMT January 20, 2010
stocks
Reply   
Stocks getting trashed. Watch out for risk aversion.

Lahore FM 15:59 GMT January 20, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy audusd
Entry: 0.9103 Target: Stop: 0.9060

long in play now,target open.

Juffair KaL 15:41 GMT January 20, 2010
usdcad
Reply   
added more usdcad shorts
audcad and eurcad shorts
till next day

USA ZEUS 15:37 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

I think the pending EUR/USD pop higher is an easy low risk scalp/swing for those who like to trade such.

Added to the fresh longs @ 1.4107

USA ZEUS 15:35 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

empoli ab 12:48 GMT January 20, 2010

great stuff ab! Thanks for sharing.
Please keep the valuable insights flowing.

GT! :-)

USA ZEUS 15:24 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

Long EUR/USD for a scalp swing @ 1.4113

To be re-shorted later of course

London NYAM 15:22 GMT January 20, 2010
vs usd

broken

London NYAM 15:19 GMT January 20, 2010
vs usd



Yes agree Alimin. Just needs to nudge through this support.

USA ZEUS 15:15 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

Contra traders can start buying EUR/USD here for a swing trade.

USA ZEUS 15:13 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

EUR/USD under fire. Covered @ 1.4124 to be re-shorted later

tokyo ginko 15:10 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/CAD

sori typo , total should read as Today.

too many multi-tasking here. sorry

makassar alimin 15:01 GMT January 20, 2010
vs usd
Reply   
if gold is a good indicator, looks like it is heading to 1030 at least, short here with stop above today's high should do fine

GVI Forex Blog 15:01 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Let’s look at what the euro has done against the US dollar compared to what the Chinese currency has done since the last dollar bear market began.

Euro mash and China teetering…

tokyo ginko 15:00 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/CAD

sori typo , total should read as Total.

So nett, I am still holding about 45% of my total usd/cad position.

GVI Forex Blog 14:58 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has made a marked breakdown of a bearish continuation flag pattern that previously appeared to be on the verge of becoming invalidated.

Chart of the Day - 1/20/2010 – EUR/USD

tokyo ginko 14:57 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/CAD

hi, actually the % doesn't really matter much as one's risk apetite is different from another. I was adding position in small portion, and TODAY I reduce my positions in % terms of the total holdings. I hope I make sense.

tokyo ginko 14:57 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/CAD

hi, actually the % doesn't really matter much as one's risk apetite is different from another. I was adding position in small portion, and total I reduce my positions in % terms of the total holdings. I hope I make sense.

Lahore FM 14:52 GMT January 20, 2010
Trade Ideas

suddenly weka jpy will stem the rot for euru gbp and rest of the gang imho!

NYC Louis 14:49 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/CAD

Nice trade on the Dolls/cad Tokyo ginko, but can u explain your %'s as looking back you bought dolls/cad 6 times ( 5 times u stated 25 % ) and you started buying at 1.0307 when no percentage was mentioned . 5 x 25% takes u to 125 % just a little confused

Juffair KaL 14:38 GMT January 20, 2010
short

usdcad
a hard call on direction
will stay short

GBPUSD short again here

Juffair KaL 14:33 GMT January 20, 2010
short
Reply   
short eurusd again here

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

Hi this is John who replied. I'm not aware of a bid rate for "LIBOR" that is published anywhere. Rule of thumb...

THREAD: Qusetion to GVI or Mr Jay UPDATED

tokyo ginko 14:31 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/CAD

close out 25% @ 1.0485

Thanks Jay for your kind words.

jogjakarta august 14:25 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

thx for your replies Jay,....so if 3mo in market tracker is LIBOR , i'm looking also London Interbank Bid Rate...

THREAD: Qusetion to GVI or Mr Jay UPDATED

makassar alimin 14:22 GMT January 20, 2010
euro
Reply   
agree with Zeus, there would be short term pause here but still feel this is not complete yet, euro ideally should head for 1.36

Gen dk 14:11 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Juffair KaL 14:05 GMT January 20, 2010
next day's levels

seems like a disaster is coming up
Might be very volitile MKT for a couple of days

LJ BK 13:49 GMT January 20, 2010
Trade Ideas

Thought so :)

Lahore FM 13:44 GMT January 20, 2010
Trade Ideas

LJ,not exiting,cashing in part is all!

GVI Forex john 13:42 GMT January 20, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



CHART: Focus on permits (leading indicator?)

LJ BK 13:41 GMT January 20, 2010
Trade Ideas

FM, are you exiting the dollar camp? It feels more comfortable with you on board :)

LJ BK 13:39 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Strong follow through at 200 dma today. Must be many prisoners around that level and there shouldn't be a chance to get out for them anytime soon.

Lahore FM 13:29 GMT January 20, 2010
Trade Ideas

01/15/2010 15:44:07 FM Lahore 7
01/14/2010 19:55:31 FM Lahore 7

usdcad
Entry: Target: Stop:
2nd long in now at 1.0235,stops 1.0170.
--
half out at 1.0293 and stops raised to entry on remainder.
--
rest of lower entry long out now at 1.0455 for 220+ in all.

GVI Forex Jay 13:25 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/CAD

Ginko, well planned and executed

GVI Forex Blog 13:25 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   

Stocks Falter Overnight as Chinese Equity Markets Plunge

tokyo ginko 13:23 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/CAD

close out 30% of position @ 1.0460

GVI Forex Blog 13:22 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   

Dollar rallies as China asks Banks to Curb Lending

tokyo ginko 13:17 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/CAD

1st resistance here 1.0450/60

GT all

GVI Forex Futures 13:08 GMT January 20, 2010
Technical Notes
Reply   
Total Open Interest (OI) in the Euro FX futures fell from the Friday close to the Tuesday close (Monday holiday) by 821 contracts to 159,994. Given the magnitude of the price change, we are a little surprised by the small OI adjustment. We have to assume that increases in shorts must be offsetting reductions in longs?

Looking exclusively at moving averages, momentum traders must have been building Euro FX shorts. We should get more info on market positioning Friday from the CFTC Commitment of Traders report (COT), which is calculated with Tuesday's data.

Juffair KaL 12:55 GMT January 20, 2010
next day's levels

might do a Longer term Hold pos on USDCHF
Might hit 1.09 next week

eurcad might see 1.40 next week

empoli ab 12:48 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD

Here it is ZEUS

empoli ab 12:21 GMT January 19, 2010
eurusd: Reply
Interesting comment from Nomura abt importance and previous Euro's moves ard 200 dma in the past:
"Eurusd watch out: With the poor ZEW number, the 200-day MA is on the horizon again - it currently comes in at 1.4293. There are some good bids ahead of this but there will surely be some short-term stops through it. Even more pertinent is if we close through it which will cause a raft of stops from Real Money etc.

To give you the significance:
The line has held since May 2009 - EURUSD went up 3 big figs that day on the break and has never gone back below.
Before then, it had held on the topside since August 2008 - on that day, EURUSD fell 3 big figs on the break below - we tested once in the interim managing to get only 9 pips through before reversing to close the day 479 pips lower! Amazing.
Before then, it had held on the downside since March 2006 without a single break.

You don't get a more significant technical level than this...watch carefully."


GVI Forex Blog 12:39 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Traders anticipate the publication tomorrow (21 January) of the Initial Jobless Claims.

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 20/01/2010

USA ZEUS 12:38 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   
empoli ab 12:24 GMT January 20, 2010

ab- perhaps it is worth a re-post here. Otherwise I'll look up the archives.

BTW- Looking at EUR/USD in the short-term, it is @ 1.4137 and may see some rebounding flows anytime soon for a pop higher. Could be good for some short covering in these regions for those who trade that way.

GT & Cheers!

empoli ab 12:24 GMT January 20, 2010
GBP/USD

Yes even if i exited a little bit early at 1,4310 as i thought that 200dma had to hold at first attempt.
Now i m short since yesterday in eur gbp and i m happy u exited from short cable ahahah
by the way did u read the post i put yesterday regarding the Nomura intl comment on eurusd behaviour at 200dma? think it has been quite interesting and events are confirming that comment.
If u want i repost it ok my friend?
(ps in eurgbp have 0,8640 tp/0,8825 sl level after shorted at 0,8770 yesterday... so pls in case dont disturb u let me have ur respectable opinion here thks in advance)

USA ZEUS 12:19 GMT January 20, 2010
USD/CAD

USA ZEUS 17:05 GMT January 14, 2010
USD/CAD
Long USD/CAD 1.0259
______________________________________________________

1/2 out @ 1.0441. Remaining moved to b/e.

Juffair KaL 12:18 GMT January 20, 2010
next day's levels

audcad shorts
0.9527 0.9561 0.9595 0.9699

USA ZEUS 12:17 GMT January 20, 2010
GBP/USD

empoli ab 12:13 GMT January 20, 2010

Thanks ab! Am sure your excellent call for EUR/USD is well rewarded!! :-)

Cheers!

USA ZEUS 12:15 GMT January 20, 2010
GBP/USD

Moved stops to break even on the remaining.

GVI Forex john 12:15 GMT January 20, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



CHART: Canadian CPI not as strong as expected.

empoli ab 12:13 GMT January 20, 2010
GBP/USD

Nice job ZEUS

USA ZEUS 12:11 GMT January 20, 2010
GBP/USD

Took gains on the GBP/USD short position @ 1.6269

Lahore FM 12:08 GMT January 20, 2010
Trade Ideas

01/19/2010 21:59:52 FM Lahore 2

Buy usdcad
Entry: 1.0316 Target: Stop: 1.0240
2nd long in play at 1.0316 now with stops.

earlier ordr at 1.0285 offer pulled out.
--
half closed now at 1.0431,stops raised to entry on rest 1/2.

GVI Forex john 12:07 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

Consumer prices rose 1.3% in the 12 months to December, following a 1.0% increase in November. December's increase...

THREAD: CAD in Depth Trading Thread UPDATED

GVI Forex Blog 12:02 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 20-Jan-2010 - 1200 GMT

Juffair KaL 11:45 GMT January 20, 2010
next day's levels

friday
eurusd expected close
@ 2 3 3.5 and 4 sigma
usually takes chaos to hit 4 sigma
gl

High 1.4131 1.4180 1.4230 1.4575
Low 1.3737 1.3688 1.3640 1.3545

GVI Forex Blog 11:35 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
The euro hit five-month lows against the dollar and sterling on Wednesday as the single European currency's decisive break under a key support level against its U.S. counterpart prompted widespread selling.

FOREX NEWS-Euro/dollar hits 5-mth low, breaks tech support

Juffair KaL 11:34 GMT January 20, 2010
next day's levels

shorts on eurcad
on next days Levels
EURCAD 1.4686 1.4744 1.4802 1.5020

and todays
EURCAD 1.4669 1.4844 1.4903 1.5020

GVI Forex Jay 11:27 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

As noted last night, 1.4190 and 1.4177 were next key supports, both broken. As the daily chart shows, a firm break...

THREAD: EUR/USD UPDATED

Juffair KaL 11:22 GMT January 20, 2010
next day's levels

possible things to consider for next day
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
EURCHF Buy
AUDUSD
USDCAD Sell
NZDUSD
EURGBP Sell
EURJPY
GBPJPY
CHFJPY
GBPCHF Buy
EURAUD Sell
EURCAD Sell
AUDCAD Sell
AUDJPY
CADJPY
NZDJPY
GBPAUD

they are with .5% of the 2 sigma for next day

tallinn viies 11:15 GMT January 20, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
buying again euros at 1,4159. stop at 1,4109.
target 1,4295-00.

GVI Forex Blog 11:05 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Currencies: The USD and JPY benefited from risk aversion flows stemming from both Asia and European factors. China potential lending curbs weighed on the Equity sentiment while various officials continue to stress that Greece had to deal with its problems.

European Market Update: Risk aversion from both Asian and European factors aiding USD and weighing upon equity sentiment

Juffair KaL 11:02 GMT January 20, 2010
next day's levels
Reply   
next 24 th hour Critical prices
@ 2 3 3.5 and 4 sigma
EURUSD 1.4290 1.4340 1.4390 1.4579 __ 1.3894 1.3845 1.3797 1.3701
USDJPY 92.1987 92.4890 92.7796 93.2425 __ 89.8978 89.6148 89.3330 88.7728
GBPUSD 1.6574 1.6626 1.6679 1.6788 __ 1.6156 1.6104 1.6053 1.5952
USDCHF 1.0617 1.0654 1.0691 1.0702 __ 1.0322 1.0285 1.0249 1.0178
EURCHF 1.4829 1.4847 1.4865 1.4900 __ 1.4686 1.4669 1.4651 1.4616
AUDUSD 0.9317 0.9357 0.9398 0.9508 __ 0.8996 0.8957 0.8918 0.8841
USDCAD 1.0397 1.0433 1.0468 1.0545 __ 1.0119 1.0085 1.0051 0.9983
NZDUSD 0.7418 0.7450 0.7481 0.7571 __ 0.7172 0.7142 0.7112 0.7053
EURGBP 0.8738 0.8770 0.8803 0.8920 __ 0.8482 0.8450 0.8419 0.8356
EURJPY 130.72 131.34 131.95 133.84 __ 125.87 125.28 124.69 123.52
GBPJPY 151.89 152.63 153.37 154.70 __ 146.06 145.35 144.65 143.25
CHFJPY 88.57 88.99 89.42 90.71 __ 85.25 84.84 84.44 83.64
GBPCHF 1.7392 1.7458 1.7525 1.7557 __ 1.6865 1.6801 1.6736 1.6609
EURAUD 1.5578 1.5625 1.5672 1.5814 __ 1.5204 1.5158 1.5112 1.5021
EURCAD 1.4686 1.4744 1.4802 1.5020 __ 1.4225 1.4168 1.4112 1.3999
AUDCAD 0.9527 0.9561 0.9595 0.9699 __ 0.9257 0.9224 0.9192 0.9126
AUDJPY 85.40 85.92 86.44 87.66 __ 81.30 80.80 80.31 79.33
CADJPY 90.48 90.92 91.37 92.11 __ 86.93 86.50 86.07 85.22
NZDJPY 67.90 68.28 68.67 69.61 __ 64.90 64.54 64.18 63.46
GBPAUD 1.8165 1.8240 1.8315 1.8414 __ 1.7572 1.7499 1.7427 1.7284

GVI Forex john 11:01 GMT January 20, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 12:00 GMT (Canada and U.S.)

Canadian Consumer Price Index


The CPI is an index designed to measure the change in price of a fixed market basket of goods and services. The market basket of goods and services is representative of the purchases of a typical consumer. Most countries have an alternate measure of inflation where they exclude volatile items, such as food and energy, to arrive at a measure of underlying inflation. Colloquially, this is usually referred to as “core” inflation. Core inflation can be a useful analytical tool.

Many Central banks explicitly target inflation levels. An acceleration or deceleration of inflation may signal that a change in monetary policy might be appropriate.


U.S. Weekly Mortgage Statistics

Weekly Mortgage Statistics are released by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Total mortgage applications are the headline figure. They are then broken down into (1) new mortgage applications and (2) refinance applications. Both items by themselves are more revealing than the total number. The latest 30-year mortgage interest rate is released as well.

IMPACT: These data provide an early read on the state of the housing market.

GVI Forex Blog 10:50 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
11:00 GMT- Jan 20 (global-view.com) The Democrats lost their veto-proof majority in the U.S. Senate Tuesday. More importantly they lost probably their safest seat in a special election to fill the spot vacated by the death of Senator Ted Kennedy.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- USD Gains on Political Developments

GVI Forex john 10:46 GMT January 20, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support
Reply   


The Daily Forex View

USD Gains on Political Developments

11:00 GMT- Jan 20 (global-view.com) The Democrats lost their veto-proof majority in the U.S. Senate Tuesday. More importantly they lost probably their safest seat in a special election to fill the spot vacated by the death of Senator Ted Kennedy.

MORE...

London Misha 10:46 GMT January 20, 2010
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Market closed on the Long MA. However, Key Reversal Down on the Daily Chart & now a possible Dec - Jan Bear Flag formation.
USDJPY - Key Reversal Up on the Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Bearish Advance Block / Shooting Star on the Daily Chart!
USDCHF - Bull Hammer on the Daily Chart! Dead Cross of the Medium/Short down through the Medium MA's.
EURGBP - Second close under the Long MA!
USDCAD - Testing the 2009 low support!
AUDUSD - Harami on the Daily Chart! Golden Cross of the Short up through the Short/Medium MA's.
NZDUSD - Doji on the Daily Chart, possibly a Dragonfly Doji.

Plovdiv Gotin 10:09 GMT January 20, 2010
Eur/Usd

EUR/USD today Hi/Lo ,EBS pls?TIA

GENEVA JFO 09:58 GMT January 20, 2010
200 b/o test

sofia kaprikorn 09:01 GMT January 20, 2010

Thanks for your reply and good trading day to you.

moscow mike 09:57 GMT January 20, 2010
USDJPY
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 90.90 Target: Stop:

Buying some usdjpy here @ 90.90, stops -dynamic yet, so later rigid. Risk management - position trade.

Nairobi Ken 09:19 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

In my opinion cutting leverage is not fair to retail traders coz if someone wants to trade at a leverage of more...

THREAD: CFTC Proposed Regulations UPDATED

Medan Ardent 09:01 GMT January 20, 2010
Short GBp/JPy
Reply   


Sell GBP/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Selling signal

sofia kaprikorn 09:01 GMT January 20, 2010
200 b/o test

JFO - I think in a similar fashion as many times burned on overextended targets - breaks in fx are usually faded and reversed a few times and trends unfold in many 1-2, 1-2 series.

case in point the move in USD/CAD from1.07 to 1.02 - it's a clear channel on Daily - but if one trades on shorter timeframes it's all swing trading range.. gl/gt!

sofia kaprikorn 08:57 GMT January 20, 2010
200 b/o test

tnx mike - pure luck it was!

sofia kaprikorn 08:51 GMT January 20, 2010
QIndex Trading System

thank you for the answer Dr. Q!

Hong Kong Qindex 08:45 GMT January 20, 2010
QIndex Trading System

01/17/2010 19:15:23 kaprikorn sofia 12
Dr. Q - if you allow the question, I have seen the system explanation on your site, however just for simplicity I wondered if it measures the distribution and giving higher readings to levels that price spends most of the time that then they become barrier level. I assume it might be similar to Market Profile where you see the time and price relationship to see areas where most of the distribution process takes place and the tails where the price just overextended.
tia!


=============================================



I missed your question. To a certain extend there is some similarity between market profile and my trading system. Both of them are based on a distribution profile. The main difference is that QIA is a projected profile.

Juffair KaL 08:36 GMT January 20, 2010
till next day

Longer term..1 Month +

EURAUD
and EURCHF
very close for entry


EURUSD_d 1.4879 1.5012 1.5146 1.5413 __ 1.3829 1.3706 1.3585 1.3350
USDJPY_d 96.9747 98.2250 99.4754 101.9761 __ 87.2298 86.1194 85.0369 82.9516
GBPUSD_d 1.6754 1.6940 1.7126 1.7497 __ 1.5299 1.5131 1.4967 1.4649
USDCHF_d 1.0786 1.0891 1.0997 1.1207 __ 0.9962 0.9866 0.9772 0.9589
EURCHF_d 1.5085 1.5138 1.5191 1.5297 __ 1.4664 1.4613 1.4562 1.4461
AUDUSD_d 0.9485 0.9621 0.9756 1.0027 __ 0.8433 0.8314 0.8199 0.7977
USDCAD_d 1.1051 1.1197 1.1343 1.1634 __ 0.9916 0.9787 0.9661 0.9419
NZDUSD_d 0.7695 0.7825 0.7956 0.8217 __ 0.6687 0.6576 0.6468 0.6263
EURGBP_d 0.9321 0.9413 0.9504 0.9687 __ 0.8605 0.8521 0.8439 0.8280
EURJPY_d 139.4871 141.3722 143.2572 147.0274 __ 124.8142 123.1499 121.5294 118.4131
GBPJPY_d 157.4148 159.9573 162.4998 167.5848 __ 137.7319 135.5427 133.4219 129.3735
CHFJPY_d 93.7237 94.9830 96.2423 98.7609 __ 83.9199 82.8073 81.7238 79.6397
GBPCHF_d 1.7301 1.7477 1.7653 1.8005 __ 1.5923 1.5762 1.5605 1.5300
EURAUD_d 1.6675 1.6834 1.6994 1.7312 __ 1.5426 1.5280 1.5137 1.4858
EURCAD_d 1.5630 1.5783 1.5936 1.6242 __ 1.4431 1.4292 1.4155 1.3888
AUDCAD_d 0.9769 0.9871 0.9973 1.0177 __ 0.8971 0.8878 0.8787 0.8611
AUDJPY_d 88.9600 90.6351 92.3103 95.6605 __ 76.0637 74.6579 73.3031 70.7359
CADJPY_d 94.3625 95.9948 97.6271 100.8917 __ 81.7557 80.3655 79.0218 76.4648
NZDJPY_d 71.9908 73.4905 74.9901 77.9895 __ 60.4934 59.2589 58.0739 55.8405
GBPAUD_d 1.8874 1.9117 1.9360 1.9846 __ 1.6979 1.6763 1.6553 1.6147

Hong Kong Qindex 08:35 GMT January 20, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell GBP/JPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/JPY : Critical Support 146.26



The weekly cycle matrix system indicates that the market is under pressure when it is below 149.84 and the market is heading towards the supporting range at 146.51 - 146.54. As shown in the distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart the market is pulling towards 144.07.


GBP/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gbp-yen.html

sofia kaprikorn 08:35 GMT January 20, 2010
200 b/o test

sofia kaprikorn 00:02 GMT January 20, 2010
200 b/o test: Reply
short EUR/USD 1.4276 / Sl 1.4313
____________________________
covered at 1.4190 for +86

sofia kaprikorn 08:34 GMT January 20, 2010
Doji Reversal assumption

sofia kaprikorn 00:39 GMT January 20, 2010
Doji Reversal assumption: Reply
short GBP/USD 1.6354 / SL 1.6404
______________________________
covered at 1.6275 for +79

tokyo ginko 08:09 GMT January 20, 2010
Long USD/JPY
Reply   
Buy USD/JPY
Entry: 90.82 Target: Stop:

Long USD/JPY @ 90.82

GT ALL

GENEVA JFO 08:07 GMT January 20, 2010
200 b/o test

sofia kaprikorn 07:40 GMT January 20, 2010

Hi Kaprikorn,

For trends , I study weekly charts. On this one I have a look at 40 ma located today at 1.4200 and 200 ma located at 1.3800

It is possible that we see lower but I doubt we go directly to 1.3800.
Idealy, I play the rebound and after I reverse for lower levels.

GT & Good day to you :=)

moscow mike 07:49 GMT January 20, 2010
200 b/o test

Kirill - well done! Very timely entries.

sofia kaprikorn 07:40 GMT January 20, 2010
200 b/o test

'trend is your friend'

Juffair KaL 07:37 GMT January 20, 2010
till next day

eurgbp still a sell
EURGBP 0.8809 0.8829 0.8849 ___ 0.8651 0.8632 0.8612

don't mess with it

Juffair KaL 07:29 GMT January 20, 2010
till next day
Reply   
Buyin these till next day
GBP/USD B
NZD/JPY B
AUD/JPY B
AUD/CAD B
EUR/CAD B
CHF/JPY B
EUR/JPY B
NZD/USD B

entering w/ dips

these levels could help
EURUSD 1.4426 1.4461 1.4496 ___ 1.4148 1.4114 1.4080
USDJPY 91.91 92.12 92.33 ___ 90.20 89.99 89.78
GBPUSD 1.6511 1.6549 1.6587 ___ 1.6211 1.6174 1.6137
USDCHF 1.0428 1.0453 1.0478 ___ 1.0232 1.0208 1.0183
EURCHF 1.4806 1.4818 1.4830 ___ 1.4712 1.4700 1.4688
AUDUSD 0.9331 0.9357 0.9384 ___ 0.9120 0.9094 0.9069
USDCAD 1.0388 1.0408 1.0428 ___ 1.0228 1.0208 1.0188
NZDUSD 0.7462 0.7484 0.7507 ___ 0.7281 0.7259 0.7237
EURGBP 0.8809 0.8829 0.8849 ___ 0.8651 0.8632 0.8612
EURJPY 131.65 132.05 132.44 ___ 128.54 128.16 127.79
GBPJPY 150.95 151.44 151.93 ___ 147.02 146.54 146.07
CHFJPY 89.15 89.41 89.67 ___ 87.10 86.85 86.60
GBPCHF 1.7048 1.7085 1.7122 ___ 1.6755 1.6719 1.6683
EURAUD 1.5593 1.5620 1.5648 ___ 1.5376 1.5349 1.5322
EURCAD 1.4854 1.4886 1.4917 ___ 1.4604 1.4573 1.4542
AUDCAD 0.9596 0.9617 0.9639 ___ 0.9424 0.9403 0.9382
AUDJPY 85.25 85.57 85.88 ___ 82.75 82.44 82.14
CADJPY 89.31 89.57 89.83 ___ 87.26 87.01 86.76
NZDJPY 68.13 68.39 68.64 ___ 66.11 65.87 65.62
GBPAUD 1.7913 1.7959 1.8004 ___ 1.7553 1.7509 1.7465

GENEVA JFO 07:24 GMT January 20, 2010
time for buy on dips

Medan Ardent 07:20 GMT January 20, 2010

Hi there,

I will turn bearish if we close weekly under 200 ma.

Till now rebound is possible.

Gt & GL to you :=)

Medan Ardent 07:20 GMT January 20, 2010
time for buy on dips

200 MA broken, so I think the buliish trend becomes bearish trend. IMHO
GL

moscow mike 07:20 GMT January 20, 2010
GBPUSD

...Fresh shorts 1.6405, stops later.

=============

Out 1/3 at 1.6295 for +110 pips. Stops at 1.6380 for rest.

GENEVA JFO 07:15 GMT January 20, 2010
time for buy on dips
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4193 Target: later Stop: no

Still long at 1.4391

Today buy more at 1.4193

BA mades 06:45 GMT January 20, 2010
eur/usd
Reply   
1.4182 is 50% of the large fibo 1.6035-1.2329. Acted support/resistance before. Next ultimate support is at 61.8% 1.3745 (also weekly 200MA). I am expecting rebound as long as these levels stay intact.

Medan Ardent 05:58 GMT January 20, 2010
EUR/GBP
Reply   


How low can u go?

Friends, pls comment the chart attach above.
TIA

Medan Ardent 05:41 GMT January 20, 2010
ArdFX system
Reply   


Sell gbp
Entry: Target: Stop:

cable going south target 1.6244

Ath. Xarian 05:29 GMT January 20, 2010
cable
Reply   
Bought some cable here @ 1,6303.Some good bids are there and just below..

Ath. Xarian 05:22 GMT January 20, 2010
Eur/Usd
Reply   


Good morning mates.As I had posted a few days earlier this chart,I hope some of you followed it.The critical spot was the 200MA as I said earlier.It will test it I believe and the fall sould continue in the next days to come cause of the rumors in Europe that are spreading and the political system is becoming unstable cause of the deficits and the taxes that are being taken by goverments in some coutries.More downgrades are in place to come in the next months for Spain,Portugal,Italy,Ireland,Greece, so the pressure is on and will become heavier.

GVI Forex Blog 03:49 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 20-Jan-2010 - 0335 GMT

Syd 03:16 GMT January 20, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: China CBRC's Liu Denies Credit Suspension Report
Reply   
China banking regulator Liu Mingkang tells Dow Jones that CBRC never told banks to stop lending, earlier tells conference in HK new yuan loans for 2010 to be reduced to CNY7.5 trillion (vs unsustainable CNY9.59 trillion in 2009), while credit growth to slow to 16%-18% this year (vs end-December outstanding yuan loan growth of 31.7%). Clearest comment yet on credit targets for 2010, but should quash market nervousness over unsourced report by state-owned China Securities Journal saying banks have been told to suspend lending for rest of January, amid estimates that lending so far for month may be over CNY1 trillion.

Hong Kong 03:11 GMT January 20, 2010
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
Market Review - 19/01/2010 21:29 All times in GMT

Dollar gains broadly after weak German investor sentiment


Despite a brief bounce to 1.4415 at Tokyo opening, the single currency tumbled after release of German & euro zone ZEW index, a gauge to show investor sentiment. German ZEW index came in much weaker than expected at 47.2 in January versus the expectation of 49.5 and well below previous reading of 50.4. The eurozone ZEW economic sentiment in January also dropped to 46.4 versus the consensus forecast of 48.0. Euro nose-dived immediately after the data and later weakened to 1.4252 in NY mid-session (its lowest level against the greenback this year) as the weak ZEW index added to woes inflicted by flagging market confidence in Greek public finances.

Although cable has rallied to 1.6459 in European morning after the release of higher-than-expected U.K. CPI which rose by 0.6% m/m and 2.9% y/y, price later tumbled to 1.6312 in European mid-session in tandem with euro on dollar's broad-based strength.

Chinese move to tighten monetary liquidity by lifting auction yields on one-year bills hurt investor risk appetite, boosting the U.S. dollar against both the yen and higher-yield commodity currencies.

Net overall capital inflows into the U.S. rebounded to $26.6 billion in November from a revised outflow of $25.4 billion in October.

Despite early marginal weakness to 90.31 versus the yen, the greenback rebounded on short-covering after Japan Airlines JAL filed for bankruptcy as expected. The pair reached intra-day high of 91.27 in NY mid-session before stabilizing.

The greenback also rose against Canadian dollar to as high as 1.0350 after the Bank of Canada held rates steady and slightly lowered its growth outlook, saying a strong currency remains a risk to recovery.

Data to be released on Wednesday include New Zealand CPI, Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan tertiary industry index, machine tools orders, Germany PPI, U.K. ILO unemployment rate, BOE meeting minutes, Canada CPI, U.S. building permits, housing starts, PPI.

Syd 02:59 GMT January 20, 2010
CHina
Reply   
DJ China Bank Regulator: Never Told Banks To Stop Lending

Syd 02:42 GMT January 20, 2010
WSJ: AP Calls Massachusetts Senate Race For Republican Scott Brown
Reply   
A little-known Republican upended the balance of power in Washington by winning a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, a result that imperils President Barack Obama's top legislative priorities and augurs trouble for his party in this year's elections.

With 75% of the vote counted, Republican Scott Brown was leading his opponent, Massachusetts' Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley, 52.7% to 46.3%, according to the Associated Press, which declared Mr. Brown the winner.

CHINA
Reports emerging that the Chinese authorities have instructed some banks to completely stop any new lending until the end of the month

Sydney ACC 02:22 GMT January 20, 2010
news?????

NY Times reports that with 69% of the Masachsetts vote counted the Republican candidate has captured 53% of the vote.
Looks like Democrats lose the 60% majority in the Senate.

Singapore PW 02:15 GMT January 20, 2010
news?????
Reply   
Did any news come out?

Syd 01:38 GMT January 20, 2010
Air France-KLM to charge obese flyers almost double
Reply   
Obese people who are unable to squeeze into a single plane seat will have to pay nearly double to fly with Air France-KLM in future, the company says.
http://www.smh.com.au/travel/travel-news/air-franceklm-to-charge-obese-flyers-almost-double-20100120-mjvq.html

sofia kaprikorn 01:27 GMT January 20, 2010
USD correlations to SPX, Gold & 10yUST
Reply   
here are some overlay charts with the above mentioned correlations that I think are important to notice in the current changing market. I'd appreciate your comments and suggestions!

http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2010/01/usd-index-correlations-with-spx-gold-10.html

Richland QC Mailman 00:58 GMT January 20, 2010
Recommended performing broker for 2010
Reply   
Thanks FM, Jay for the warm welcome. Pleasant morning.

sofia kaprikorn 00:39 GMT January 20, 2010
Doji Reversal assumption
Reply   
short GBP/USD 1.6354 / SL 1.6404

New York ALGOFX 00:19 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

As you all may or may not know, the FX industry in the USA is about to be decimated by moronic CFTC bureaucrats...

THREAD: PENDING FX DISASTER: 3 EASY STEPS TO STOP THE CFTC UPDATED

GVI Forex Blog 00:07 GMT January 20, 2010 Reply   

Equity Markets Soften as Traders Reevaluate Long Positions

sofia kaprikorn 00:02 GMT January 20, 2010
200 b/o test
Reply   
short EUR/USD 1.4276 / Sl 1.4313

 




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