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Forex Forum Archive for 01/22/2010

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


dc CB 23:26 GMT January 22, 2010
Warning from the TBTF
Reply   
don't f#$# with us O'. We'll pull out bids tell the prop desks to sell and set the Algos to Short.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

"9 months of "who wants to be short over the weekend?" Time to flip that one around......

Flush, As HFT Downside Bids Are Oddly Missing

GVI Forex Blog 23:18 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   

Investors Dump Stocks as Sentiment Shifts towards Less Risky Assets

GVI Forex Blog 22:59 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   

Dollar Closes Sharply Higher for Week

FW CS 22:12 GMT January 22, 2010
Treasury to sell $118 billion in debt

USA ZEUS
Is Euro still a sell on bounces from here or are we close to a bottom? I was thinking that maybe Euro can still go to 1.35 area.

GVI Forex Blog 21:53 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
Markets unimpressed with Obama China on fire U.K. retail sales underwhelm

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (22 January 2010)

FW CS 21:52 GMT January 22, 2010
Treasury to sell $118 billion in debt

The Fed will just buy the bonds using their indirect bidders as long as the market does not catch onto that fact no problem --but eventually it will leak out.

GVI Forex Blog 21:29 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
The USD and the JPY were the strong performers this week. The Greenback is breaking out of its recent consolidation mode. Risk aversion kept the Japanese Yen strong as the preferred safe haven...

Weekly Technical Update 1.22.2010 Greenback Strength Returns

USA ZEUS 21:22 GMT January 22, 2010
Treasury to sell $118 billion in debt
Reply   
Treasury to sell $118 billion in debt next week.

This doesn't seem to be a story anymore. I guess we are all exhausted with the massive numbers.-

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-on-pace-for-weekly-gain-2010-01-22?siteid=yhoof

USA ZEUS 20:45 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

Excessive leverage is to a trader as overdosing on drugs is to an addict. Both dealers are happy to take your...

THREAD: CFTC Proposed Regulations UPDATED

GVI Forex Blog 19:52 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
21:00 GMT- Jan 22 (global-view.com) The financial markets were turned on their ears in the latest week by politics in the U.S. Of critical importance was the outcome of the Senatorial vote in Massachusetts for the seat opened by the death of Senator Ted Kennedy.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- The Daily Forex View

GVI Forex john 19:43 GMT January 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Weekend Edition-  Markets in Turmoil

21:00 GMT- Jan 22 (global-view.com) The financial markets were turned on their ears in the latest week by politics in the U.S. Of critical importance was the outcome of the Senatorial vote in Massachusetts for the seat opened by the death of Senator Ted Kennedy.

MORE...

Colorado Springs SR 19:15 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Open Forum

Every trader knows the risk and reward of trading a high leverage account. Many brokers already give you the...

THREAD: CFTC Proposed Regulations UPDATED

HK REVDAX 18:22 GMT January 22, 2010
charts

HK Kevin//How come censored is not answering calls? Is it because today is a Chinese festival?

GVI Forex Blog 17:57 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
By Joseph Trevisani January, 22, 2010

The Former Stability and Growth Pact

HK REVDAX 17:57 GMT January 22, 2010
charts

bobl//i got it! thank you.

GENEVA JFO 17:51 GMT January 22, 2010
eurusd

Tallinn viies 17:43 GMT January 22, 2010

Thanks for your reply Viies.

Let's see what market will bring in the next hours....

And, wish you a wonderfull WE

I have a beer now.

Tallinn viies 17:43 GMT January 22, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
GENEVA JFO 15:08 GMT - it was just to inform people here who dont have access to news,. sometimes when Im in holidays and logging to GV I really appreciate such info.

I do not follow MS this info was on reuters news, I keep an eye on GS suggestions and comments and they are still fundamentally dollar bears.
their tech analyst and traders suggesting to keep short at the moment and target 1.4020 and 138sh.
it is very likely that they come up with suggestion to go long euros near 1,38 .
imhpo of course

Lahore FM 17:37 GMT January 22, 2010
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 14:54 GMT January 22, 2010
Trade Ideas: Reply
Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4122 Target: Stop: 1.4180

additional long for 1.4180.
--
filled for 58+

San Diego bobl 17:36 GMT January 22, 2010
charts
Reply   
REVDEX,
Meta 4 trader is an execution platform. I just am referring to the netdania charts...........and studies. It's an extremely good tool that I thought would be worthwhile to throw out there, plus it's supported by Jay and John, who offer us this wonderful website.

gl/gt

HK Kevin 17:34 GMT January 22, 2010
range or trend

San Diego bobl 17:20 GMT, a million thanks for your detailed explanation. I have some long EUR/JPY entered at 126.95 this Asian early morning and covered half at 128.05 in Asian afternoon and the ramaining just at 127.66. Really thanks.

HK REVDAX 17:21 GMT January 22, 2010
range or trend

bobl//how did you draw the linear regression? On meta 4? Tks

San Diego bobl 17:20 GMT January 22, 2010
range or trend
Reply   
Kevin,

I'm sorry.......forgot to address range or trend. It works in all markets.......note usd/jpy, the hourly envelopes this entire range period, offering both buys and sells.

gl/gt

San Diego bobl 17:14 GMT January 22, 2010
channels and stops
Reply   
kevin,

I personally like to take the noise out of the market so defer to the hourly for entries and exits. As you can see with the suggested global-view chart of the day, the 100 period linear regression model captures the bigger picture, and the 35 linear regression channel the shorter term. I personally take the trade (actually coded in algo) off of channel lines, with what I call a "confirming bar". In other words, take the 100 period in eur/jpy......once the upper range was tested, and the market moved down, then I make the trade and place a stop 10 pips above that bar. In the case of eur/jpy, you see that both channels connected @ about 129.50, an especially good area to trade........two channels together, plus the currency markets gravitate towards the even and the half............again perfectly displayed in eur/jpy. So the answer is not a fixed number for stops, it's a market behavior stop. But, this particular algo, is very low risk and can give a trader large rewards. I personally trade in multiples of 3 lots, so after first target hit (mid channel line), I take the second lot to the bottom barrier, and then if the market continues in the slope of the channel, I'll still have some on for a larger reward. Note: after first target hit, the entire remaining position goes to b/e. Sometimes, which we all need in this business, it hits a "home run".

gl/gt

van jv 16:58 GMT January 22, 2010
Economy
Reply   
GVI Equity wii suffer anyway

Doug Casey: Stock Market Set to Crash
Doug Casey interviewed by Louis James
Editor, International Speculator
Jan 21, 2010
Doug: Exactly. My thinking about the stock market is this: corporations have done as "well" as they have mainly by cutting expenses. Laying people off, that sort of thing. So the bottom lines have not fallen as far as we might expect - but the top line has been hit. Revenues are falling for corporations across the board.
L: And the market has to notice this reality sooner or later.
Doug: Yes. The world's financial system has to adjust to a new reality, one with lower levels of consumption and differing types of production. The legions of unemployed are not going to go back to work anytime soon, at least not doing anything like what they were doing before the bubble burst. The economy is going to continue deleveraging. There's going to be less debt to allow the purchase of all this stuff people have been buying, resulting in lower corporate earnings. So it's hard to see revenues doing anything but continue to spiral downwards for years to come.
And then there are financial "accidents" waiting to happen

GVI Forex Blog 16:58 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
The aftershocks from President Obama's bank regulation scheme continued to rattle markets this morning, with leading indices falling as much as 1% a piece in the first hour of trade before rebounding sharply.

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

HK Kevin 16:55 GMT January 22, 2010
eur/jpy

San Diego bobl 16:32 GMT, really wonderful indicators. From your experience, what kind of markets (range or trend) have a higher chance of success for appling this methodolgy? And where do you sugggest to put the stop?

lkwd jj 16:53 GMT January 22, 2010
cable
Reply   
below 16119 might get ugly as it was pivot level which held . small trade for slow friday.

GVI Forex Blog 16:42 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   

U.S. Equities Could Suffer Under Obama Plan

GVI Forex Blog 16:41 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
The days of dollar strength and weakness have been nearly equal in number. But the magnitudes of the moves overwhelmingly favor the bulls during the stated period of time.

US Dollar Index Failing? Follow-through would be nice ...

USA ZEUS 16:33 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

*Correction-

1.6144 for +61 was taken.
Day traders delight.
Small remaining now at b/e.

Cheers!

USA ZEUS 16:33 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

1.4144 for +61 was taken.
Day traders delight.
Small remaining now at b/e.

Cheers!

San Diego bobl 16:32 GMT January 22, 2010
eur/jpy
Reply   
fwiw.....
Put that very chart up (eur/jpy) with the linear regression channels suggested, and you'll be amazed at the accurracy of these lines. It's simple, it's free.............and takes about a minute to do. Again, the linear regression channels are 100 period, and the second 35 period.

We have put this, along with some governors, in our algo programs, and have had great success with it.

gl/gt

GVI Forex Blog 16:23 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
Price action on EUR/JPY, a daily chart of which is shown, has descended all the way down to reach and dip below key support around the 127.00 price region. This occurs within the context of

Chart of the Day - 1/22/2010 – EUR/JPY

San Diego bobl 16:13 GMT January 22, 2010
market channels
Reply   
fwiw........
In framing market behavior, which has been a lifetime pursuit for me, I've found and would like to share a very simple method. Using Daily FX charts (Netdania), if you put in two very simple enclosures, you'll find an amazing and useful tool for trade decisions. Whatever chart you put up, whatever timeframe, you'll discover many potential strategies, especially hourly entries and exits. Simply go to the "studies" suite, and put two linear regression channels on screen. Personally, (based on over 35 yrs. trading), I put in 100 period channel; second, I input a 35 period linear channel. By doing this you get a bigger picture view, and a shorter term view. This system, in alghorithmic terms, has proven very successful, and at least a worthwhile view. As an example, try it on eur/usd for starters..........and as you roll through all crosses, you'll see a very viable pattern for both short term and longer term trading.

gl/gt

Gen dk 16:08 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Blog 16:05 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
The dollar remained firm for the most part this week. EUR-USD fell to a 6-month low of 1.4029 on Thursday, before recovering again somewhat on Friday to around 1.41. The movement is mainly a result of

FX Briefing - Dollar remains firm

GVI Forex Blog 16:02 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Monday early sees Australian PPI data. In Europe, no major data are due. North America will se the release of U.S. existing homes sales. This is the most important of the various housing measures.

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for January 25, 2009

GVI Forex Blog 16:00 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
After Thursday’s March on Wall Street by the White House, US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, a no better friend the big banks could have, may well be headed to Wall Street himself…his (and Summers) coddling approach to big banks seems to have been thrown under the bus in the wake of the Massachusetts election.

Forex Blog - David Gilmore's Alert. Geithner off the Reservation...Wall Street Beckons

lkwd jj 15:58 GMT January 22, 2010
jpy as a haven

its low yield vs high yield now. low=usd,jpy. high cad,aud,nzd. euro and gbp closer to high's than lows.

GVI Forex john 15:57 GMT January 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Jan 22 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Monday early sees Australian PPI data. In Europe, no major data are due. North America will se the release of U.S. existing homes sales. This is the most important of the various housing measures.

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

1:30

AU

4Q PPI qq

n/a

0.10%

1:30

AU

4Q PPI yy

n/a

0.20%

15:00

US

DecExist Homes mn

6.07

6.54

 

 

TUESDAY

 

 

4:30

JA

BOJ Rates (0.10%)

n/a

n/a

9:00

DE

Jan IFO Climate

95.2

94.7

9:00

DE

Jan IFO Cond

91.7

90.5

9:00

DE

Jan IFO Expect

99

99.1

9:00

EZ

Nov Cur/Acct Eur

n/a

-4.6b

9:00

EZ

Nov Inv Flows Eur

n/a

17.7b

9:30

UK

4Qp GDP qq

0.40%

n/a

9:30

UK

4Qp GDP yy

-3.00%

n/a

12:00

US

WK Mtg Stats

n/a

n/a

14:00

US

Nov Case-Shiller20

n/a

0.40%

15:00

US

Jan CB Confidence

n/a

52.9

18:00

US

TRY 2-yr

n/a

n/a

21:30

US

API Energy

n/a

n/a

23:50

JA

Dec Trade JPYb

590

373.9

Miami JN 15:51 GMT January 22, 2010
jpy as a haven
Reply   
Can someone explain the rationale for the jpy acting as a safe haven during risk aversion times? Is it a matter of risk positions being unwound and jpy being repatriated? Is it a matter that it works so market continues to treat it this way? I see no reason to own it is the jpy otherwise.

moscow mike 15:46 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

Thank you Zeus! Perhaps some may find it useful.

As always you make me inspired and wanting to execute same hero trades as you do. Good job again outthere with eurusd and gbpusd.

GT & Great w/e to all

USA ZEUS 15:41 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

Some may start to thin some out here @ 1.6121 like me.
You know what to do.
Cheers.

USA ZEUS 15:32 GMT January 22, 2010
USD

moscow mike 08:18 GMT January 21, 2010
USD: Reply
See signs of short term ease in pressure on single currency. However dollar is strong and may become even stronger. Issue with overstretched eurgbp should be resolved and likely through gbpusd drop which is already seems to be started.

Still holding on my gbpusd shorts from 1.6410 and usdjpy longs from 90.90.

GT!
______________________________________________________

In a word- GENIUS!

Excellent theme read by a Top Gun!!! :-)

USA ZEUS 15:25 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

Take profits at your leisure. Mechanical profit lock robot in place for optimal gains.

Cheers.

Minneapolis DRS2 15:25 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

Are you still long EUR/USD?

USA ZEUS 15:17 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

All aboard...last call.

USA ZEUS 15:14 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

Put your rally hats on folks. Day traders delight.

USA ZEUS 15:12 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

This one's going to rally for sure.

USA ZEUS 15:10 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

Added long GBP/USD @ 1.6078

USA ZEUS 15:08 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

Triggered in long GBP/USD @ 1.6088.

GENEVA JFO 15:08 GMT January 22, 2010
About Morgan
Reply   
tallinn viies 14:11 GMT January 22, 2010

Hihi Viies,

That's really true but that was also the reality a few month ago when eurusd was loked in the range 1.3800/1.4200 and when up after to reach 1.5000.
I think the best is going with the market and all our friends in this forum. Because we participate actively on the direction.

Sometimes I am contrarian because of my model.

But in general, the partipants are very good.

Good trades & profit to all of us!!

USA ZEUS 15:02 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

GBP/USD 1.6092 enters the target zone to buy on triggers.

Lahore FM 14:54 GMT January 22, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy eurusd
Entry: 1.4122 Target: Stop: 1.4180

additional long for 1.4180.

USA ZEUS 14:37 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

Buy on dips should be the tone.

Juffair KaL 14:19 GMT January 22, 2010
still
Reply   
eurusd
shorts not yet

so is gbpusd..shorts
and usdcad longs
mostly all ok with 30 minutes and 1 hour
but not 15 minutes
so maybe another 8 hrs

GVI Forex Blog 14:13 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   

Obama Plan Seen as Dollar Negative

tallinn viies 14:11 GMT January 22, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Morgan Stanley in a note is recommending going short
EUR/USD, saying that the overvalued single currency has further
room to fall. The bank is saying the euro is about 20 pct
overvalued. In addition, weakness in recent euro zone data and
problems in Greece will continue to drive the euro's
underperformance in 2010. Morgan Stanley sees the currency
falling to $1.28.

Juffair KaL 14:10 GMT January 22, 2010
1 lot per hour

gbpaud going super sonic north

Juffair KaL 13:59 GMT January 22, 2010
1 lot per hour
Reply   
still doing this
now
gbpjpy included
selling or buying 1 lot per hour
for the given tgts
only when 15 minutes 30 minutes and 1 hr data pointing to one direction i trade it

EUR/CHF Sell 1.468
AUD/USD Sell 0.897
NZD/USD Sell 0.71
EUR/JPY Sell 126
CHF/JPY Sell 85.649
CAD/JPY Sell 85
NZD/JPY Sell 63
GBP/AUD Buy 1.805
GBPJPY Sell 1.44

USA ZEUS 13:46 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD

USA ZEUS 00:26 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD: Reply
Something tells me that EUR/USD will enjoy a relief rally for Friday. Will 1.42+ print? Let's see...

_________________________________________________________

Yes, but...............

USA ZEUS 13:41 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD

USA ZEUS 13:24 GMT January 22, 2010
Ooops- Should have read "GBP/USD"

GVI Forex john 13:34 GMT January 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 14:00 GMT

Belgian Leading Indicators


Often a reliable predictor of the important monthly German IFO Survey. It is not always released before IFO each month.

USA ZEUS 13:28 GMT January 22, 2010
USD/CAD

Closed 1/4 @ 1.0541

USA ZEUS 13:24 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP/USD
Reply   
USD/GBP looks to have some micro pop rallys soon.

GVI Forex john 13:14 GMT January 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @13:30 GMT (Canada)

Retail Sales


Retail Sales are usually a broad measure of the retail sale of consumer durable and non-durables. It is used by analysts to gauge the strength of consumer consumption.

IMPACT: In most economies, the consumer sector is the largest sector of the economy. Central banks watch retail sales to measure the strength of the economy.

London HC 13:05 GMT January 22, 2010
sterling
Reply   
One reason for the sterling selling could be Obama suggesting US and UK are in agreement on bank regulation.

Lahore FM 13:05 GMT January 22, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy audcad Correction**
Entry: 0.9516* Target: 0.9820* Stop: 0.9420

long now.

sofia kaprikorn 13:04 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD range trade

sofia kaprikorn 12:30 GMT January 22, 2010
sold 1.4133 / SL 1.4161
----------------------
added 1/3 at 1.4130
_____________________
covered all at 1.4125.
good weekend all!

Ath. Xarian 13:04 GMT January 22, 2010
euro/usd
Reply   
I am starting to like the euro/usd today..Too many buy recommendations for it around the 1,4050/30 with stops just under the 1,3950..It reminds me the buy recommendation some weeks ago from Goldman Sachs when Euro/usd was trying to break the 1,4300 and they gave buy when it was at ,14450 with stops of course just under 1,4300..And after two days then...OWNED!!! lol So, we have in range the weekly 55 MA which comes at around 1,3980 and pretty nice stops under 1,3950...and big ones..I'll keep shorting it everytime it makes a rally and waiting for a nice break under 1,4000..and then....many targets will feel pressure is coming on them! GT

Lahore FM 13:04 GMT January 22, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy audcad
Entry: 0.9616 Target: 0.9820 Stop: 0.9520

long now.

GVI Forex Jay 13:01 GMT January 22, 2010
USD

Purk, for the record, you were asked as a favor and were not told.

GENEVA JFO 13:00 GMT January 22, 2010
Short covering day
Reply   
Buy eurusd
Entry: Target: Stop:

Bought more eurusd at 1.4120

USA ZEUS 12:57 GMT January 22, 2010
USD

Amsterdam Purk 09:01 GMT January 22, 2010
USD: Reply
I was told yesterday not to use the D. word here anymore.


Tell that to Richard Cheney and the great American football player Mr. Richard Butkus.

Gen dk 12:56 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

sofia kaprikorn 12:30 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD range trade

sofia kaprikorn 11:32 GMT January 22, 2010
sold 1.4133 / SL 1.4161
----------------------
added 1/3 at 1.4130

London Chris 12:12 GMT January 22, 2010
GBP
Reply   
GBP getting hit on its crosses

London hmk 12:11 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340

London hmk 09:37 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340: Reply
Sell
Entry: 1.62330 Target: 1.6157 Stop: no stop

closed position at 1.6157

London NYAM 12:05 GMT January 22, 2010
S&P



One rather scary EW count is attached. It could be interpreted (the fib rules posted here along time ago match very nicely) that we have just completed a massive ascending/contracting triangle. In which case there basically isnt any support (kidding nothng goes in a straight line....usually). Some support which shouldnt hold long is at 1087 (red trendline).
others of varying degree of strength as seen on chart:
1104
1072
1037 good support
966
etc.
gl/gt

Juffair KaL 11:58 GMT January 22, 2010
day's plan
Reply   
still doing this
for tgts
now adding one more lot
now 6 lots each
adding every hour

EUR/CHF Sell 1.468
AUD/USD Sell 0.897
NZD/USD Sell 0.71
EUR/JPY Sell 126
CHF/JPY Sell 85.649
CAD/JPY Sell 85
NZD/JPY Sell 63
GBP/AUD Buy 1.805

GVI Forex Technicals 11:58 GMT January 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Depending on data calculation methodology, we are hearing 50-day S&P moving averages in S&P ranging from 1112 to 1116. So the 50-day moving average should be seen as more of a level than a precise price.

In any case, the 50- and 200-day moving averages are the most closely followed by equity traders, and many have been turning bearish on the market overall with the 50-day in play. The 200-avg (1015) is distant.

GVI Forex Blog 11:56 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
The dollar fell broadly on Friday after U.S. President Barack Obama proposed new rules for banks that some investors said would squeeze profits but the yen later pared gains against the greenback as risk aversion abated.

FOREX NEWS-Dollar falls on Obama bank plans, yen pares gains

tallinn viies 11:55 GMT January 22, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
after GE results stocks, crude and euro under pressure again

GVI Forex Technicals 11:47 GMT January 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

 From twice daily:  Market Tracker

MOV AVG

NIKKEI

DAX

FTSE

S&P

DJIA

LAST

10591

5721

5324

1116

10390

20 DAY

10729

5955

5462

1133

10570

50 DAY

10240

5860

5363

1117

10477

100 DAY

10159

5753

5255

1092

10169

200 DAY

9940

5387

4855

1015

9447

Note: Due to database limitations, averages are approximate

 

sofia kaprikorn 11:32 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD range trade
Reply   
last trade - testing if 1.4151 R1 will hold.

sold 1.4133 / SL 1.4161

GVI Forex Blog 11:13 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
Currencies: The USD was softer against the major and commodity related pairs as some of the initial risk aversion over President's Obama call for restrictions on the size and trading activities of financial institutions. It seems that loopholes in the proposal were already being considered.

European Market Update: UK Retail sales disappoint; Markets cautious ahead of potential China and India exit strategy implementation

sofia kaprikorn 11:13 GMT January 22, 2010
daily pivot 1.6211

sofia kaprikorn 10:01 GMT January 22, 2010
long GBP/USD 1.6222 / Sl 1.6176
__________________________
covered at 1.6231 for +9.

it will be one of those non-directional tight range Fridays. very dangerous. I plan to stay out. good weekend all!

Wall Street 10:51 GMT January 22, 2010
S&P
Reply   
Can anyone help with key technical levels in the S&P?

Hearing chatter 1116 was important and that 1080 is next. If equity correlations continue to work, suggests lower EURUSD??

GVI Forex Blog 10:47 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
11:00 GMT- Jan 21 (global-view.com) The markets get a respite from U.S. data today with nothing major on the calendar. Earlier U.K. December retail sales data were weaker than expected. On the other hand, Eurozone new industrial orders were stronger than expected a very short while ago...

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Waiting for Dust to Settle

Amman wfakhoury 10:43 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340
Reply   
London hmk 09:37 GMT January 22, 2010
------
I said it is sideways uptrend.
It is possible to decline till 16210.
now lets wait 16340.

GVI Forex john 10:43 GMT January 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Waiting for Dust to Settle

11:00 GMT- Jan 21 (global-view.com) The markets get a respite from U.S. data today with nothing major on the calendar. Earlier U.K. December retail sales data were weaker than expected. On the other hand, Eurozone new industrial orders were stronger than expected a very short while ago...

MORE...

PAR 10:30 GMT January 22, 2010
California Dreaming
Reply   
Schwarzenegger flies into Washington to plead for federal dollars for California
By Aleksandra Kulczuga - The Daily Caller 01/22/10 at 2:20 am


California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger met lawmakers on Capitol Hill Thursday to push his request for $6.9 billion in federal dollars to help plug California’s $20 billion budget gap.

The governor had a productive conversation with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, according to her spokesman, spoke to California Democratic Sens. Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), and discussed Medicaid formulas and reimbursement with HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius.

tallinn viies 10:03 GMT January 22, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
sold euros at 1,4162. no stop right now, plan to add near 1,4190--00 area.

sofia kaprikorn 10:01 GMT January 22, 2010
daily pivot 1.6211
Reply   
long GBP/USD 1.6222 / Sl 1.6176

Amsterdam Purk 09:46 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340

oops was not addresses to me was it? HE is truly a profi...

In the meantime, the 200 pips maybe become true from the 14050ishes... e/u.

Amsterdam Purk 09:45 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340

Never a professional, i do not speak of people are being this or that, just people. I just take the crumbs, every day.

sofia kaprikorn 09:41 GMT January 22, 2010
daily pivot 1.4090

sofia kaprikorn 08:50 GMT January 22, 2010
sold EUR/USD 1.4138 / stop 1.4161
----------------------------------
added 1/2 at 1.4135 / avg 1.4136 / SL 1.1464
___________________________________
squared at 1.4150 for -14.
no value in fighting the market or my timing is off.

Dorset George 09:40 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340

....and judging by time of your entry and the current market price makes you a professional,,,,what?,,,lol

London hmk 09:37 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340

Sell
Entry: 1.62330 Target: 1.6157 Stop: no stop

amateurs were signalling sell gbp , you again insist mrkt in one way up,

Syd 09:28 GMT January 22, 2010
Marc Faber: Obama Makes Bush Look Like a Genius
Reply   

The US administration's interventions in the market will not solve problems and will bring about unintended consequences, Marc Faber, author and publisher of the "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," told CNBC Friday
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34996485

Juffair KaL 09:18 GMT January 22, 2010
3 parts
Reply   
coded a program
that will do 15 minutes
30 and 60
if they all point in same direction i trade it
now saying this

EUR/JPY S
AUD/USD S
GBP/AUD B
NZD/JPY S
NZD/USD S

Amsterdam Purk 09:13 GMT January 22, 2010
USD

Well Richard was buying when i said he was buying but managed to get a better position in the low 20's.
I was trsuting on a 200 blip from the 14050's. 100 is also ok so took it already, and if possible want this position back, but trying for better entries. All depends on time frame, GMT, lunch etc...
As long as the market is a place with human infulence every step can be of influence... so if Richard eats a bad cake etc, etc..
Have a Parrot cage yet?

Tokyo Yumi 09:02 GMT January 22, 2010
USD

ok,,,,that is why i asked you to tell us his real name so you dont use the word D anymore...lol

Amsterdam Purk 09:01 GMT January 22, 2010
USD

I was told yesterday not to use the D. word here anymore.

Amman wfakhoury 08:52 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340
Reply   
buy here again around 16260

sofia kaprikorn 08:50 GMT January 22, 2010
daily pivot 1.4090

sofia kaprikorn 08:44 GMT January 22, 2010
sold EUR/USD 1.4138 / stop 1.4161
----------------------------------
added 1/2 at 1.4135 / avg 1.4136 / SL 1.1464

Tokyo Yumi 08:48 GMT January 22, 2010
USD

Does Dick have a name Purky and please enlighten us into what it is...

Hong Kong 08:46 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD
EUR/USD: 1.4146

Last Update At 22 Jan 2010 07:51 GMT


Although euro's breach of 1.4144 signals rise
fm y'day's 6-month low of 1.4029 to retrace recent
decline has resumed n gain to 1.4176/81 cannot be
ruled out, reckon 1.4200 wud cap upside n yield
selloff later today.


Sell on further recovery with stop as indicat-
recent fall to 1.4176 b4 down. Stand aside for now.


Range Forecast
1.4130 / 1.4170


Resistance/Support
R: 1.4144/1.4166/1.4220
S: 1.4089/1.4065/1.4029

sofia kaprikorn 08:44 GMT January 22, 2010
daily pivot 1.4090
Reply   
sold EUR/USD 1.4138 / stop 1.4161

Amsterdam Purk 08:36 GMT January 22, 2010
USD

Amsterdam Purk 11:12 GMT January 21, 2010
USD: Reply
I see this as Dick positioning for worse to come for usd...

Of course everybody was looking only at the D. word, but since the post e/u travveled 100+ pips.
Taking the gains again. I like it when nobody listens, more for the Clog...

Amman wfakhoury 08:26 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 07:59 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd from my desk: Reply
is moving in one way direction
trend uptrend sideways then change into strong uptrend
target 16340 and more .
weak possiblity to decline till 16210.

------
exit your buy here 16285 and re-enter again at lower price.

sofia kaprikorn 08:17 GMT January 22, 2010
weekly low 1.3971

sofia kaprikorn 20:22 GMT January 21, 2010
weekly low 1.3971: Reply
short EUR/USD 1.4091 / SL 1.4151
____________________________
stop hit for -60. wrong assumption.

Amman wfakhoury 07:59 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd from my desk
Reply   
is moving in one way direction
trend uptrend sideways then change into strong uptrend
target 16340 and more .
weak possiblity to decline till 16210.

empoli ab 07:49 GMT January 22, 2010
Obama's plan....
Reply   
Some consideration abt it.... fm Nomura Intl (1st version)
"we are getting specialists to look into Volker rules's details... but I just set out some preliminary thinking... **************************
There are big questions to be asked
1. How likely is this to pass? Personally, I reckon some form of
this is likely to pass. I don't think that we should rely on a R.
filibuster to stop this. The risk is that enough Republican populists
will support this in order for it to pass (see point H below).
2. How much could this change?/when might it pass? It's possible
that this could change significantly and/or take some time (many mths?)
to get passed as it appears to be fairly rushed and lacks detail. (see
the foot of this page for comment on prop risk)
3. Who is likely to be impacted? I.e. it looks like this covers
commercial/depo taking banks. In this respect, it could leave GS, MS and
Nomura relatively unscathed
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100121/ap_on_bi_ge/us_financial_overhaul.
However, it will presumably require GS and MS to forgo their bank
charter & lose access to the Fed discount window - which will increase
their 'riskiness', and hence their funding cost*).
*That said, it's not clear that the authorities want them to relinquish
their bank charter bec it would reduce oversight. After all, it was a
pure Investment banks (Leh) that was an important source & symptom of
the last bust... so it's not clear how separation can help.
What are the implications/other thoughts?
A. (in the s-t evidently bad for risk (higher USD-EM), and bad for
the USD). However, beyond the s-t, would tend to think that the impact
on USD-Asia (and other EM) will be relatively limited - i.e. once the
'panic' subsides, it's relatively bad news for US economy and
policy-making....
B. This will contribute to wider swap spreads.
C. Indeed, the regulations on non deposit funding could be
particularly burdensome, depending on their severity, esp. given that
this would coincide with the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision's
proposals which have yet to be felt in the US but which will over time
increase bank funding costs, penalize traditional curve risk, encourage
a wave of asset allocation into govt bonds, blow-up bond swap spread,
etc, etc.
D. The spirit of this seems to be a) (obviously) to reduce risk
taking, b) (possibly, although the (apparently sidelined) Geitner denied
this on BBG) reduce scale.
E. BoA, JPM and Citi may have to split their I.banks and their
commercial banks
F. In this respect, this can continue to be bad news for risk
taking (obviously).
G. It's also bad for the real economy, bec a) it wastes a lot of
management time dealing with this issue, b) it reduces the benefits from
revenues from the risk-taking, c) it reduces the benefits of scale. D)
disincentivizes innovation. & E) all in all, places a greater burden on
banks at a time when they are supposed to be lending more money.
H. It also has worrying implication for the direction of political
debate. That is, it looks like the D. response to the loss in Mass. is
to move towards populism (the ground that the left and right can agree
on) rather than a sensible (Clintonesque) middle.
I. This may be bad news for finance in particular, and may
represent a shift away from the center in terms of finance policy
specifically...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/01/21/geithner-summers-eclipsed_n_432
129.html... indeed, many wire stories suggest Geitner (and Summers) have
been sidelined. This is not good news as Geitner seemed to be relatively
finance friendly.
Additional on prop' risk:-
a. As for commercial banks, they might be able to carry on with
much of their existing business given that client focused risk taking
will still be allowed which requires banks to accumulate bucket risks
etc, and that the censure will fall upon pure prop trading, private
equity/ hedge fund investments.
For many commercial banks, these operations have been scaled back a lot
since they blew-up quite spectacularly. The problem would be if the prop
arms of banks which tend to be allied to their Treasury functions are
defined as prop rather than facilitators of funding. If so, they that
would be a far more consequential blow to the earning power of banks and
their ability to take risk and generate revenue.
In this regard (and assuming that the standards are allied globally),
Barcap vs. BofA could be an interesting contrast. Barcap's prop
functions and private equity business are relatively muted other than
the prop group allied to the core Treasury operation, while BofA/ ML has
a more sizable revalue stream from these sources due in part to legacy
ML. The question is, whether or not these prop businesses of banks like
ML are large enough to be spun out or if they would simply be closed
down and hence market liquidity would decline.
b. Re: prop trading in some of the major banks (i.e potential
impact) - from Business Week
- Goldman Sachs: At least 76 percent of 2009 revenue (around $34bn) from
trading and principal investments. About "10-ish percent" of the New
York-based firm's revenue comes from "walled-off proprietary business
that has nothing to do with clients," according to Chief Financial
Officer David Viniar.
- Morgan Stanley: Lost $1.05bn on principal investments in 2009, has
mostly shut down trading operations it deems "proprietary," Chief
Financial Officer Colm Kelleher said on a conference call this week.
- Citigroup: 2009 generated at least $3.93bn of revenue from principal
investments, or 5% of overall revenue, according to the bank's financial
statements.
- JPMorgan Chase: $9.8bn of revenue from principal investments in 2009,
or 9.8% of the firmwide total, according to its financial statements.

PAR 07:44 GMT January 22, 2010
California Dreaming
Reply   
The Terminator Defends California's Munis

Arnold Schwarzenegger travels like the head of a major country—which, in a sense, he is. In Washington, D.C., this week, the famous California governor was surrounded by an impressive entourage, even when escaping from meetings on Capitol Hill for a stogie at a nearby cigar bar. He moves through the streets in a motorcade of SUVs with blacked-out windows. When he arrives, scowling men in dark glasses get out of the vehicles first.

California is the world's eighth-largest economy, but it isn't getting much respect in the financial markets. The state's general-obligation bonds—the equivalent of the state's sovereign debt—have seen their ratings slashed below those of any other state. As I reported last week, the cost of insuring them is even higher than the cost of insuring government bonds from Kazakhstan. I caught up with Mr. Schwarzenegger in the cigar bar—it counts as one of the last "smoke-filled rooms" in the nation's capital, but we didn't manage to cut any deals while we were there—and had to ask him about that.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704423204575017592
940004712.html

Amman wfakhoury 05:29 GMT January 22, 2010
gbpusd 16340
Reply   
gbpusd in weak uptrend now 16210 ,will change to uptrend
to reach 16340.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:04 GMT January 22, 2010
QIndex Trading System

S&P 500
Entry: Target: Stop:

S&P 500 : Critical Support 1106.3


The market hit the low and the high at 1108.5 and 1138.0 respectively and it closed at 1111.1. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below the weekly cycle matrix system at 1117.0 - 1119.1 - 1118.5. It is likely that the market will test the supporting range of 1058.2 - 1091.0.




======================================


01/21/2010 14:38:01 Qindex Hong Kong 3

S&P 500
Entry: Target: Stop:
S&P 500 : Heading Towards 1118.5


The market is heading towards the weekly cycle matrix system at 1117.0 - 1118.5 - 1119.1. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the bias is on the downside when the market is below 1141.0.


S&P 500 : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/sp500-future.html

Hong Kong Qindex 04:33 GMT January 22, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Hang Seng Index
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hang Seng Index : Heading Towards 19674


As shown in the monthly cycle directional indicator the market is under pressure when it is below 21031. Projected barriers are located at 20045 and 20131. The next significant level is 19674. As indicated in the monthly cycle charts the normal trading range is 19674 - 25497. Speculative selling pressure will increase when 19674 fails to hold.


Hang Seng Index : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/hsi.html


USA ZEUS 03:50 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD

Risk aversion could very easily become mean reversion today.

USA ZEUS 03:48 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD

NYC JM 00:45 GMT January 22, 2010

Say one thing then do the other? That should be criminal.

tokyo ginko 03:41 GMT January 22, 2010
Dick?

close out HSI 20268, next simsci

usd/cad no position
gbp/usd no position

outstanding
short aud/usd
short oil
short gold
long usd/jpy
short snp
long nikkei

GT all and nice weekend!

GVI Forex Blog 03:36 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 22-Jan-2010 - 0334 GMT

Hong Kong 01:14 GMT January 22, 2010
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
Market Review - 21/01/2010 22:06 All times in GMT

Yen and dollar gain on Obama's bank plan; Greece weighs on euro




The Japanese yen and dollar rose on Thursday as U.S. President Barack Obama proposed trading restrictions on financial institutions, discouraging demand for higher-yielding assets.

U.S. stocks dropped sharply on Obama's proposal to prevent major banks from owning, sponsoring or investing in hedge funds for their own profit. DJI closed the day down 213 points. The news hurt risk appetite and benefited the yen. Despite rising to an intra-day high of 91.88 at NY opening, the greenback tumbled against the yen after Obama began this presentation to the congress and price reached a one-month low of 90.11 in NY afternoon before stabilising.

The euro continued to suffer from worries about Greece's public finances. Greece faces a huge public deficit and its borrowing costs have soared in recent days. Its government said on Thursday it would take all necessary measures to rein in its deficits and put the economy back on track. The single currency hit its intra-day low of 1.4029 in European morning but staged a strong rebound to 1.4144 on Obama's comments in NY afternoon before easing. However, euro still closed the day down over 0.1%.

The pound tumbled on broad-based cross-selling in sterling (eur/gbp rose for the first time in eight days from Wednesday's low of 0.8650 to 0.8718) and price hit intra-day low of 1.6123 in European mid-session before staging a rebound afterward. Anyhow, cable still closed the day down over 0.5%.

In other news, U.S. jobless claims came in at 482,000, much higher than economists' forecast of 440,000 and previous upwardly revised reading of 446,000.

Data to be released on Friday include Australia exports, imports, Japan industrial index, U.K. retail sales, EU industrial orders, Canada retail sales.

GVI Forex Blog 00:58 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   
Obama causes markets to tumble Did he or didn't he: Kan and the Yuan Weber sees optimism Risk demand falters

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (21 January 2010)

NYC JM 00:45 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD

Zeus, now you wouldn't be talking your book?

USA ZEUS 00:26 GMT January 22, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   
Something tells me that EUR/USD will enjoy a relief rally for Friday. Will 1.42+ print? Let's see...

GVI Forex Blog 00:04 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   

Obama’s Regulatory Proposal Rocks Equity Markets

GVI Forex Blog 00:04 GMT January 22, 2010 Reply   

USD JPY Tumbles as Return of Risk Aversion Rocks the Markets

USA ZEUS 00:02 GMT January 22, 2010
Dick?

What's wrong with Dick? Besides FX, there are many famous Dicks out there. Some loved and some hated i.e Dick Butkus, Dick Cheney etc. Dick is Dick and Richard is Richard.

tokyo ginko 00:01 GMT January 22, 2010
Dick?

If 86.20ish hit, then reverse 105, it won't be trade of the day but TRADE OF THE YEAR

GT all

SF wm 00:00 GMT January 22, 2010
After Hours Trade

Booking rest at 90.44

 




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